By Manu Raju, CNN

Tue March 5, 2024

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona independent, announced Tuesday she will retire at the end of her term this year.

This story is breaking and will be updated.

The race to replace Miss George Santos will be decided tonight! 😊

Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) vs. Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip (R)

Suozzi has a small lead in the polls so far, and early voting numbers have been good for Democrats. Republicans are hoping for a good Election Day turnout today, so the effect of today's snowstorm in New York could be important in the turnout for the parties.

Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

The results are in from Dixville Notch and Nikki Haley got all 6 votes. None for Trump.

Will this be enough to save her on Tuesday night? Time will tell.

Polls close in a few minutes.

Janet Protasiewicz (D)

vs.

Daniel Kelly (R)

Mon April 3, 2023

Sixty percent of Americans approve of the indictment of former President Donald Trump, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS following the news that a New York grand jury voted to charge him in connection with hush money payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. About three-quarters of Americans say politics played at least some role in the decision to indict Trump, including 52% who said it played a major role.

Independents largely line up in support of the indictment – 62% approve of it and 38% disapprove. Democrats are near universal in their support for the indictment (94% approve, including 71% who strongly approve of the indictment), with Republicans less unified in opposition (79% disapprove, with 54% strongly disapproving).

While views on the indictment are split along party lines, the poll finds that majorities across major demographic divides all approve of the decision to indict the former president. That includes gender (62% of women, 58% of men), racial and ethnic groups (82% of Black adults, 71% of Hispanic adults, 51% of White adults), generational lines (69% under age 35; 62% age 35-49; 53% age 50-64; 54% 65 or older) and educational levels (68% with college degrees, 56% with some college or less).

. . .

A scant 10% overall see Trump as blameless regarding payments made to Daniels, but Americans are divided about whether his actions were illegal or merely unethical. About 4 in 10 say he acted illegally (37%), 33% unethically but not illegally, and another 20% say they aren’t sure. Only 8% of political independents say Trump did nothing wrong, and among the rest, they are mostly on board with the indictment even if they aren’t already convinced Trump did something illegal.

Even among those who disapprove of the indictment, the perception that Trump’s actions were questionable is fairly widespread, with about half in that group saying Trump did something wrong regarding payments to Daniels (52%). Far more in that group say he acted unethically rather than illegally, though (49% unethical, 3% illegal), with the remainder split between thinking he did nothing wrong (23%) and not being sure (24%). Among those who approve of the decision to indict Trump, just 1% say his actions were not wrong at all, while 59% call them illegal and 23% unethical.

[More at link]

Georgia, Alabama & Arkansas

Plus the Texas Runoff & Minnesota Special.

I did a search and couldn't find another thread.

Kentucky polls are now closed. North Carolina & Pennsylvania polls close in half an hour.

The 27-page report pins Trump's loss on voter perception that he was untrustworthy and disapproval of his pandemic performance.

02/01/202

Former President Donald Trump has blamed the election results on unfounded claims of fraud and malfeasance. But at the top levels of his campaign, a detailed autopsy report that circulated among his political aides paints a far different — and more critical — portrait of what led to his defeat.

The post-mortem, a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO, says the former president suffered from voter perception that he wasn’t honest or trustworthy and that he was crushed by disapproval of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. And while Trump spread baseless accusations of ballot-stuffing in heavily Black cities, the report notes that he was done in by hemorrhaging support from white voters.

The 27-page report, which was written by Trump chief pollster Tony Fabrizio, shows how Trump advisers were privately reckoning with his loss even as the former president and many of his supporters engaged in a conspiracy theory-fueled effort to overturn the election. The autopsy was completed in December 2020 and distributed to Trump’s top political advisers just before President Joe Biden’s Jan. 20 inauguration.

It is unclear if Trump has seen the report.

The findings are based on an analysis of exit polling in 10 states. Five of them — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — are states that Trump lost after winning them in 2016. The other five — Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — are states that Trump won in both elections.

The report zeroes in on an array of demographics where Trump suffered decisive reversals in 2020, including among white seniors, the same group that helped to propel him to the White House. The autopsy says that Trump saw the “greatest erosion with white voters, particularly white men,” and that he “lost ground with almost every age group.” In the five states that flipped to Biden, Trump’s biggest drop-off was among voters aged 18-29 and 65 and older.

Suburbanites — who bolted from Trump after 2016 — also played a major role. The report says that the former president suffered a “double-digit erosion” with “White College educated voters across the board.”

The picture of the election presented in the report is widely shared by political professionals in both parties, if not by Trump and his legions of his supporters. Trump never offered a concession to Biden, and up until his final days in office, he clung to the debunked idea that the election had been stolen.

Fabrizio declined to comment on the post-mortem. A Trump spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump’s personal behavior, the autopsy makes clear, contributed to his defeat. “Biden had a clear edge over POTUS on being seen as honest & trustworthy,” Fabrizio writes.

Trump’s response to the pandemic was also critical. The autopsy says that coronavirus registered as the top issue among voters, and that Biden won those voters by a nearly 3-to-1 margin. A majority registered disapproval of Trump’s handling of the virus.

Most voters said they prioritized battling the coronavirus over reopening the economy, even as the president put a firm emphasis on the latter. And roughly 75 percent of voters — most of whom favored Biden — said they favored public mask-wearing mandates.

The report also indirectly raises questions about the reelection campaign’s decision to pause advertising on TV over the summer and save resources until the fall. According to the findings, nearly 9-in-10 voters had made up their minds about whom to support by the final month of the race.

[More at link]:

Published 6:00 p.m. CT June 13, 2020

New poll just released by Des Moines Register.

Incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst is 3 points behind her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield.

Theresa Greenfield (D) 46%

Joni Ernst (R) 43%

---

“This is definitely a competitive race,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. She said the poll contains other “warning signs” for Ernst and noted that this is the first Iowa Poll conducted since Ernst first ran in 2014 in which she has trailed her general election opponent.

“Symbolically, that's certainly meaningful, even if Theresa Greenfield's lead is not commanding,” Selzer said.

The poll, which was conducted June 7-10, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for questions asked of the 674 likely voters in the 2020 general election and plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for those asked of 801 Iowans.

[More at link]:

Results will start to come in after 9 PM Eastern.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Edwards vs. Republican challenger Rispone:

The primary in the special election will be held Feb. 4 and the special general election will be held April 28.

Biden 51

Trump 39

-

Warren 46

Trump 41

-

Sunday, November 3rd, 2019

Democratic primary voters increasingly feel the need to nominate a candidate who can beat President Trump in 2020, and more think Joe Biden can do that than any of the other top Democratic hopefuls. In addition, while most Democratic primary voters are satisfied with their field, more than a quarter wish they had other options, according to a new Fox News Poll.

Biden leads the nomination race with the backing of 31 percent of Democratic primary voters, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21 percent, Bernie Sanders at 19 percent, and Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent. In early October, Biden was at 32 percent, Warren 22, Sanders 17, and Buttigieg 4.

Kamala Harris and Andrew Yang receive 3 percent apiece, followed by Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, and Amy Klobuchar each at 2 percent, and Tom Steyer at 1 percent.

Compared to March, the first Fox News Poll on the race, Biden’s support is unchanged, while Warren has gained 17 points, Buttigieg is up 6 and Sanders is down 4.

Biden is helped by a large majority of Democratic primary voters (80 percent) saying it is extremely important their nominee can beat Trump -- and more (68 percent) think he can do that than feel that way about Warren (57 percent), Sanders (54 percent), or Buttigieg (30 percent).

Far fewer, 42 percent, feel it is extremely important their candidate shares their views on major issues. However, more Democratic primary voters also say Biden shares their views (72 percent) than say the same of Sanders (68 percent), Warren (62 percent), or Buttigieg (43 percent).

Since May, the number of Democratic primary voters saying it is extremely important their nominee can defeat Trump has gone up 7 points (from 73 to 80 percent), and the portion saying it is extremely important their candidate shares their views has dropped 9 (51 vs 42 percent).

The poll, released Sunday, finds that despite having umpteen candidates to choose from, more than one in four Democratic primary voters wish they had other options (28 percent). That includes 26 percent of Biden supporters and 27 percent of Warren supporters.

Seventy-eight percent of GOP primary voters want to keep Trump as their nominee, while 69 percent of Democratic primary voters are satisfied with their field.

“If Hillary Clinton were to enter the race, she’d likely do so near the top of the pack,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. "And Michelle Obama could probably clear the field.”

Twenty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters would definitely vote for Clinton, including one-third of those backing Biden and one-quarter supporting Warren.

The numbers are rosier for former first lady Michelle Obama: 50 percent would definitely vote for her, including nearly 5 in 10 of Biden’s and 4 in 10 of Warren’s supporters.

[Full details at link]:

October 24, 2019

President Donald Trump is raising record amounts of cash for his 2020 reelection. But that fundraising might isn’t spilling over to the most vulnerable Republicans fighting to hold onto their seats in a narrowly divided Senate.

During the third quarter, former astronaut Mark Kelly took in $2.5 million more than Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona. In Maine, state House Speaker Sara Gideon bested longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins by over $1 million. And in Colorado, Cory Gardner, who led Senate Republicans’ campaign arm in 2018, barely outraised former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who had been in the race just five weeks before the quarter ended.

The trouble for Republicans extends to states where they’re supposed to be on firmer ground. Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst didn’t crack $1 million and was outraised by the leading Democrat. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis narrowly outraised Democrat Cal Cunningham but is also facing a primary challenge from the right that has forced him to spend millions in early TV and radio ads.

The lagging numbers suggest that much of the enthusiasm among the GOP base is focused on Trump and doesn’t necessarily translate to Republicans running for other offices. Democrats, meanwhile, are paying close attention to races across the board, including the House, Senate and presidency, fueling them with small-dollar donations that Republicans have struggled to counter.

Fundraising prowess isn’t always an indicator of who will actually win on Election Day. But the dynamic could complicate the GOP’s effort to maintain their 53-47 grip on the Senate.

This should serve as a “real wakeup call,” said Scott Reed, a senior political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a group that has long been allied with Senate Republicans. The “ongoing Trump drama” over impeachment and other issues “drowns out all the political news back home every single night,” making it difficult for GOP candidates to get their message out, Reed said.

But the challenges facing Republicans have mounted in recent weeks as the Democratic-controlled House pursues an impeachment inquiry. Instead of focusing on their own records, Republicans seeking reelection have often been barraged with uncomfortable questions about Trump’s conduct. The pressure will only grow if the Senate holds an impeachment trial, forcing these Republicans to decide whether Trump should be removed from office.

“Republicans are going to struggle with fundraising and messaging if the only thing they can talk about is President Trump,” said Jonathan Kott, who was a senior adviser to Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, during his successful 2018 reelection bid. “What we found is no matter how popular the president is, you have to stand up to him when it’s good for your state. Democratic senators are finding a way to do that. Republican senators aren’t.”

Democrats also have a small-dollar cash advantage.

Despite an organized push, Republicans have yet to develop an online fundraising behemoth rivaling ActBlue, the Democrats’ donation platform, which enables donors across the country to direct a contribution of $1, $5 or any amount up to $2,800 with a few taps on a smartphone.

“Democrats over the last several years have formulated a culture among the activist class where every time they are motivated by content or a candidate they contribute five bucks,” said Josh Holmes, an adviser to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who is running for reelection in Kentucky and was outraised almost 5-to-1 last quarter even though the state isn’t considered a battleground. “Republicans have made strides, but we still have a long way to go.”

[Full article at link]:

The podium order for the October debate has been announced.

Similar to the September debate, CNN/NYT used the 10 most recent qualifying polls to determine this order:

Mon September 30, 2019

SUPPORT IMPEACHMENT-- 47%

OPPOSE IMPEACHMENT-- 45%

--

FAVOR IMPEACHMENT -- BY PARTY

11% increase among Independents

8% increase among Republicans

--

Americans are about evenly split over impeaching President Donald Trump and removing him from office, as support for that move has risen among independents and Republicans, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after the announcement of a formal impeachment inquiry by House Democrats last week.

About half, 47%, support impeaching the President and removing him from office, up from 41% who felt that way in a CNN poll in May. The current level matches the high point for impeaching Trump in previous CNN polling -- 47% said they felt that way in September 2018.

The share who favor impeachment and removal from office now narrowly outpaces the share who say they don't feel that way -- a first in CNN polling -- although the two figures are within the poll's margin of sampling error. Opposition stands at 45% in the new poll, down from 54% who said so in May and the lowest point in CNN polling on this topic.

The change since May has largely come among independents and Republicans. About three-quarters of Democrats favor impeaching Trump and removing him from office, roughly the same as in May, while among independents, support for impeachment and removal has risen 11 points to 46% among independents and 8 points to 14% among Republicans.

The shift has also come notably among younger Americans. Sixty percent of those under age 35 now say they support impeaching Trump and removing him from office, up from 43% who felt that way in May, while support for the move among older Americans has held about even (42% now vs. 40% in May). Previous CNN polling on impeachment has not found such a stark gap by age.

And that shift is concentrated on the GOP side. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents under age 50, support for impeaching Trump and removing him from office has risen from 9% in May to 22% now, while views among older Republicans and Republican leaners have held about even with just 8% in favor of impeachment and removal from office.

The survey also finds 48% say Trump used the presidency improperly to gain political advantage against a potential 2020 opponent in his interactions with the president of Ukraine, 39% say he did not use his office improperly and 10% say they don't know enough to say. The partisan divide on this question mirrors that on impeachment and removal from office: 74% of Democrats say he used the office improperly, along with 47% of independents and 17% of Republicans. About seven in 10 Republicans (71%) say Trump's actions in this situation were not an improper use of the office.

Americans are more likely to say that most congressional Democrats back impeachment because they believe Trump committed impeachable offenses (49%) than because they are out to get Trump at all costs (38%). That's a shift from public sentiment about the House majority's motivations in impeaching former President Bill Clinton. In 1998, just before the full House voted to impeach Clinton, 47% felt that most congressional Republicans backed impeachment because they were out to get Clinton, while 42% said it was because most congressional Republicans thought he had committed impeachable offenses.

On the GOP side, the public is about evenly split over whether their opposition to impeaching Trump is more because they are out to protect the President at all costs (42%) or because they believe he has not committed impeachable offenses (43%). That's a closer divide than on public perceptions of Democratic handling of Clinton; 51% thought House Democrats were out to protect Clinton at all costs.

This CNN poll was conducted by SSRS using its Omnibus survey platform. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone with 1,009 adults nationwide between September 24 and 29. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. It is larger for subgroups.

Mon September 30, 2019

(CNN)

New York Rep. Chris Collins submitted his resignation from Congress on Monday, one day ahead of his expected guilty plea to federal charges in an insider trading case, according to the House Speaker's office, court documents and a person familiar with the matter.

Collins sent a letter of resignation Monday to the office of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, according to her spokesman, who said Collins's resignation will be effective Tuesday.

The first sitting congressman to back President Donald Trump's bid for the White House, Collins was reelected to office several months after he was originally indicted.

He faced reelection in 2020. While a guilty plea wouldn't by law have caused him to immediately lose his congressional seat unless the House of Representatives had expelled him, a step that would have required a full vote of the House, it would have made for a challenging reelection bid.

The Republican congressman narrowly retained his seat in western New York in 2018, beating his Democratic opponent by less than half a percentage point.

It's not clear if Collins, who was charged by the Manhattan US Attorney's office, is set to plead guilty to precisely the same set of charges contained in the indictment against him, which was originally filed in August 2018 and was revised last month.

Collins' attorneys, Jonathan New and Jonathan Barr, didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Collins' co-defendants -- his son and another man -- are also set to change their pleas on Thursday, according to court filings. All three had been set to face trial in February 2020.

Collins and his co-defendants had pleaded not guilty twice in the case, once after the original set of charges in August 2018 and a second time -- to the revised charges contained in what's known as a superseding indictment -- earlier this month.

Federal prosecutors in the Manhattan US Attorney's office allege that the defendants acted on non-public information about the results of a drug trial, which was then used to trade on the stock of the pharmaceutical company, Innate Immunotherapeutics Limited, of which Collins was a board member.

The indictment didn't allege that Collins himself traded on information about the failed results of a drug trial, but that he passed the information to his son so that his son could execute trades.

That chain of information allowed the three defendants to avoid more than $768,000 in losses they would have incurred if they had traded the stock after the drug trial results became public, prosecutors alleged.

The indictment also highlighted a memorable claim: that Collins was attending the annual congressional picnic at the White House on June 22, 2017, when he received the information about the failed drug trial from the company's CEO and then repeatedly dialed his son.

Speaking outside the courthouse after his second not guilty plea, Collins said he believed he would succeed at trial. "I look forward to being exonerated in due course," he said.

August 22, 2019

OH Predictive Insights

**

Biden 45, Trump 43

Trump 44, Warren 43

Trump 43, Buttigieg 38

Trump 45, Harris 36

Trump 44, Sanders 34

**

[600 likely Arizona voters Aug. 13–14. Margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.]

Thursday, August 22, 2019

OH Predictive Insights

**

Biden 45, Trump 43

Trump 44, Warren 43

Trump 43, Buttigieg 38

Trump 45, Harris 36

Trump 44, Sanders 34

**

[Likely 2020 General Election Voters. Conducted August 13-August 14, 2019. 66 Respondents. MOE: +/1 4%]

08/13/19

Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is considering ending his White House bid and pursuing a Senate run instead, The New York Times reported Tuesday.

Four Democratic sources familiar with his thinking told the outlet that the two-term governor is giving serious consideration to challenging Republican Sen. Cory Gardner (Colo.), a move many have have called for in hopes of helping Democrats retake the Senate.

Hickenlooper reportedly discussed the possibility with Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), another 2020 candidate, during a drive before an event in Iowa.

Aides and advisers to the Colorado politicians declined to comment to the Times on what was discussed during the ride.

Hickenlooper's campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Hill on his plans.

Colorado could play a key role in Democratic efforts to retake the Senate.

While there are already 11 declared candidates in the Democratic field, Hickenlooper would bring a high level of name recognition and popularity in Colorado.

Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has reportedly been trying to recruit him to run for months.

Hickenlooper has struggled to establish a foothold in the presidential race, and is far from qualifying for the third and fourth Democratic primary debates this fall.

by Harry Enten, CNN

August 8, 2019

Texas politics are in the spotlight again this week. A number of House Republicans from the state have announced their retirements, and, after a mass shooting in El Paso this past weekend, Beto O'Rourke tussled with President Donald Trump over differing responses to the shootings.

In the backdrop of these developments is a Texas electorate that seems to be divided much more than it used to be.

It's a state with a voter base that seems to rapidly be shifting toward the center -- and I believe it could go Democratic in next year's presidential election for the first time since 1976.

I was once a skeptic on Texas turning blue, but I've changed my tune because Trump is a uniquely unpopular Republican in Texas who seems to be the driver of an important development: Like other Americans, Texans with a college degree are shifting rapidly from red to blue, and Democrats have a lot of room to grow with them in Texas.

This doesn't mean the state will go Democratic in 2020 (Democrats not named Joe Biden currently are losing to Trump in the Lone Star state in high quality polling), but it is a real possibility.

Trump's net approval rating (approval - disapproval) among registered voters has been slightly negative in Texas throughout his presidency. The latest Quinnipiac University poll put it at -1 points. All other elected Texas Republican officials had at least a +8 point net approval rating. This poll comes on top of the 2018 exit poll giving Trump a +1 net approval rating, and the midterm electorate in Texas is likely more Republican leaning than a 2020 presidential electorate will be. Trump won the state by 9 in 2016.

If the 2020 election were held today and it were solely a referendum on Trump, Texas would be a toss-up.

Traditionally, Texas has been a lot more Republican than the nation as a whole. In 2014, for example, Democratic President Barack Obama's net approval rating was 18 points worse in Texas than nationally. In 2018, Trump, a Republican, was just 10 points higher in Texas. In other words, there was an 8-point shift toward the Democrats, on this measure, compared to the nation as a whole in just four years. This followed the 2016 presidential race being the closest in the state since the 1990s.

Trump's unusually low approval rating in 2018 created the environment in which Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won re-election by less than 3 points. It was the worst Republican performance in a Senate race in the state since 1988. In 2012, Cruz won his first term by 16 points. This 13 point pro-Democratic shift occurred even though Cruz was an incumbent (who usually do better) and the national environment (as measured by the presidential vote in 2012 and House vote in 2018) shifted by less than 5 points toward the Democrats. (As I've pointed out, this shift was driven mostly by opinions toward Trump, not towards the Texas Senate candidates running in 2018.)

Of course, just because the state became more blue doesn't mean it will keep moving blue into 2020. The reason I think it could shift more is because of why the state has been going blue over the last few years: the aforementioned highly-educated voters.

High-quality consistent public polling data of Texas isn't easy to find. And while county-by-county returns are not a perfect way of examining the issue, they are a powerful tool and are sending a very strong signal. Take a look at what occurred between the 2012 and 2018 Texas Senate races.

Traditionally, the thought was growing diversity (i.e. Hispanics becoming a bigger part of the electorate) would largely be responsible for turning Texas blue. That, though, could take years for Democrats and could be counteracted by whites becoming more Republican.

[Full article at link]:

Wednesday, August 7th

*SurveyUSA*

* Former vice President Biden: 25%.

* Massachusetts Senator Warren: 21%.

* Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders: 18%

* California Senator Kamala Harris: 17%

* South Bend IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg: 6%.

* All 19 other Democratic candidates combined: 3%.

**

[conducted for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union Tribune 08/01/19 through 08/05/19, immediately following the Democratic candidate debates in Detroit.]

August 6, 2019

Orange County, California was once a Republican stronghold, and is the home of the Nixon Presidential Library.

But the latest registration figures from midnight last night show Republicans are down to a 9-vote lead with Registered Voters, and are expected to lose that lead any day now.

REP 547,394

DEM 547,385

**

Full Article:

August 2, 2019

Colorado Springs Gazette

'HickForSenate.com': Web names registered in case Hickenlooper jumps to Senate race

by Ernest Luning

Curtis Hubbard, a principle at OnSight Public Affairs — a Colorado firm that has played key roles in Hickenlooper’s two successful runs for governor — told Colorado Politics he secured the domain names after Hickenlooper failed to make a splash on the first night of the second round of the debates.

Hubbard stresses that although he wants Hickenlooper to switch races, he took the step without any encouragement from Hickenlooper or his presidential campaign…

“I did it entirely of my own accord, but I continue to believe that the best thing John can do for Colorado and the country is to turn his attention to defeating Trump-enabling Cory Gardner and ‘Moscow’ Mitch McConnell,” he said, referring to the GOP Senate Majority leader who could lose his position if Democrats take control of the Senate in 2020.

A look at the WHOIS registry information reveals that purchase of “Hickenlooper4Senate.com” and several related domains were not random purchases, but registered by Curtis Hubbard of leading local political consultant group OnSight Public Affairs. Now before anybody gets carried away, there’s always the possibility that these were contingency purchases for a decision that hasn’t been finalized yet.

Or, former Gov. John Hickenlooper may be about to take the advice of a large number of local and national Democrats and take on Cory Gardner in 2020. If Hickenlooper does make the jump, he’ll be the instant frontrunner in the Democratic Senate primary–perhaps not enough to clear the field outright but certainly the favorite. Hickenlooper’s positive brand and long record of high approval in this state, as we’ve noted previously, gives him perhaps unique advantages in terms of overcoming Gardner’s sunny but deceptive public image.

POLITICO

08/01/2019, 08:18 PM EDT

Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, the only black Republican in the House, won’t seek reelection in 2020, he announced on Thursday.

“I have made the decision to not seek reelection for the 23rd Congressional District of Texas in order to pursue opportunities outside the halls of Congress to solve problems at the nexus between technology and national security,” he announced on his website.

by Harry Enten, CNN

Wed July 31, 2019

A Quinnipiac University poll out this week shows that a majority (51%) of voters believe that President Donald Trump is a racist. Forty-five percent say that he is not.

To opponents of the President, this poll may not be surprising. But think about it for a second. This isn't just the normal opposition you'd expect to a president. This is a majority of voters saying their president is a racist.

Compare these numbers to a Harris poll from September 1968. Former Alabama Gov. George Wallace, a segregationist, was running for president as an opponent to the Civil Rights movement. As he campaigned, 41% agreed when asked whether Wallace was a racist. That was basically even with the 40% who disagreed with the statement.

There are a few ways to look at these numbers, and none are complementary to Trump. You can say that more voters believe Trump is racist than believed a segregationist running for president in 1968 was. You could be generous to Trump and say that the spread between racist and not a racist (5 points in Trump's case and 1 point in Wallace's case) is closer because more voters were undecided on Wallace. Even so, the net margin for Trump being a racist is wider than it was in Wallace's case.

Perhaps, the one bit of decent news for Trump in these numbers is that they are fairly stable. Even before Trump's most recent comments, many voters thought he was racist. In the summer of 2018, 49% of voters said Trump was racist in a Quinnipiac poll. This was slightly higher than the 47% who said he wasn't racist.

Still, the latest polling indicates that the President was mistaken if he thought the latest attacks were going to help him. We don't just see that the President's attacks have been an electoral angle in the question about racism; we see it in Trump's approval ratings as well.

Trump's approval rating is 43% among all voters in a national average. A month ago, before his tweets against the four progressive congresswomen, his approval rating among voters was the same 43%.

It shouldn't be too surprising that Trump's approval rating has not gone up. Not only has his approval rating been steadier than any president in polling history, but we've seen him previously employ similar tactics that he did in his racist tweets. These methods have not moved the numbers.

Unfortunately for Trump, numbers such as these a year from now would mean that he would be an underdog for reelection. The last time Trump had an approval rating like this heading into a national election, the Democrats gained 40 House seats and won the House popular vote by 9 points.

Collins’ approval in Maine has gone from 78 percent in 2015 to a mere 45 percent in 2019, per Morning Consult

July 26, 2019

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine has been under fire from both Democrats and fellow Republicans during the Trump era. Democrats are angry that the 66-year-old senator has been voting with President Donald Trump too often, while the far right has been insisting that she isn’t pro-Trump enough. And Collins is considering not seeking reelection in 2020, Bloomberg News is reporting.

Collins, according to Bloomberg’s Steven T. Dennis, won’t decide for sure whether or not she will seek a fifth term until the fall. And a major problem is the fact that her approval ratings have been plummeting: according to Morning Consult, Collins’ approval in Maine has gone from 78 percent in 2015 to a mere 45 percent in 2019.

Potential 2020 challengers for Collins — assuming she does decide to seek another term — have been lining up on both the Democratic and Republican sides.

Right-wing blogger Derek Levasseur, earlier this year, announced a GOP primary challenge to Collins in Maine. As Levasseur sees it, the conservative-leaning Collins isn’t conservative enough. If Levasseur were to defeat Collins in the primary, she wouldn’t even make it to the general election. And if she defeated Levasseur and did reach the general election, she could face an equally fired up Democrat.

It remains to be seen who that Democratic challenger would be, but Maine Democrats have been lining up for an opportunity to take her on in the general election. And they range from Sara Gideon (speaker of the Maine House of Representatives) to attorney Bre Kidman to retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Jonathan Treacy.

To say that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is longing to see Collins’ seat in Democratic hands in 2021 is an understatement. If Democrats can maintain every Senate seat they are defending in 2020 and take four seats from Republicans, they would achieve a Senate majority — and the DNC sees Collins as quite vulnerable.

The Trump era, as Dennis notes in Bloomberg, has “been hard on Collins.” Democrats are furious with her for various reasons — namely, her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2018, although her vote in favor of the GOP-sponsored Tax Cuts and Jobs Act angers them as well.

But on the Republican side, Collins is routinely lambasted for being pro-choice on the abortion issue and for opposing GOP efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act of 2010, also known as Obamacare.

In an interview with Bloomberg News, Collins expressed her dismay over the angry partisan divisions in the U.S. yet seemed optimistic about her ability to overcome her low approval ratings — asserting, “The divisiveness of our country and the unceasing attacks by dark money groups in Maine have clearly had an impact. But I believe that once Mainers really focus on the race and we remind them of my being the No. 1 most bipartisan member of the Senate — and all the accomplishments that I can point to that have directly benefited the state — I’ll be fine.”

From the Civiqs daily tracking poll:

Democrats: 327 Electoral Votes

Republicans: 211 Electoral Votes

July 24 2019

Economist/YouGov Poll:

42% Democratic candidate

35% Trump

11% Undecided

12% Won't Vote

[1,500 U.S. respondents, including 1,212 registered voters, between July 21-23 using web-based interviews. Margin of error of 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent for registered voters.]

***

Democratic White House hopefuls hold a 7-point lead over President Trump on a generic 2020 ballot and the party also similarly edges out the GOP on a generic congressional ballot, according to a new poll.

The Economist/YouGov survey of 1,500 U.S. adults found that 42 percent said they would vote for the Democratic presidential candidate while 35 percent said they would vote for Trump. Eleven percent said it would depend and 12 percent said they would not vote.

A previous Economist/YouGov survey released earlier this month found Democrats with only a 2-point advantage on a generic presidential ballot, with 39 percent saying they would vote for the Democratic nominee and 37 percent saying they would back Trump.

The latest results similarly split along partisan lines, with 87 percent of Democrats saying they would pick someone from their party while 82 percent of Republicans would back Trump. A comparable number of independents said they would back the Democratic candidate over Trump, with 30 percent backing the Democrat and 29 percent backing Trump.

Trump also trailed among registered voters, with 49 percent saying they would choose the Democratic candidate for president while 41 percent said they would choose to reelect Trump. Eight percent answered "it depends" while 2 percent wouldn't vote.

Democrats similarly hold a 7-point edge on a generic congressional ballot, according to the poll, with 47 percent of registered voters saying they would back the Democratic candidate and 40 percent saying they would back the Republican contender.

Business Insider

July 19, 2019

> Mayor Pete Buttigieg upgraded to #2 due to raising the most money in 2019's second quarter

> Sen. Kamala Harris and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke downgraded due to poor fundraising quarters

**

1: Former Vice President and Delaware Senator Joe Biden.

2: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

3: Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

4: Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

5: California Sen. Kamala Harris.

6: Former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro.

7: New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.

8: Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

9: Washington Gov. Jay Inslee.

10: Andrew Yang.

11: Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard.

12: Former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke.

13: New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

14: Marianne Williamson.

15: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet.

16: Businessman Tom Steyer

17: Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan.

18: Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper.

19: New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio

20: Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney.

21: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock.

22: Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel

23: Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton.

*MAINE -- Susan Collins: 45% (normally much higher)

*IOWA -- Joni Ernst: 42%

*ARIZONA -- Martha McSally: 40%

*COLORADO -- Cory Gardner: 37%

*KENTUCKY -- Mitch McConnell: 36%

*NORTH CAROLINA -- Thom Tillis: 33%

Tue July 16, 2019

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*

Biden (24%)

Sanders (19%)

Warren (19%)

Buttigieg (10%)

Harris (9%)

Booker (2%)

O'Rourke (2%)

***

Former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders sit atop the field of Democratic presidential contenders among likely primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

Overall, 24% say they back Biden, while 19% each support Sanders and Warren. The five-point margin between Biden and the two senators matches the survey's margin of sampling error.

Behind this top tier, 10% support South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and 9% back California Sen. Kamala Harris. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and former Texas congressman Beto O'Rourke each registered 2% in the poll.

No other candidate tested earned more than 1% support.

This is the first time this cycle that CNN and UNH have collaborated on a survey of likely voters in the first state slated to host a primary in 2020.

Mixed results for Biden and Sanders

Comparing these results with those from UNH Granite State Polls conducted earlier this year, the poll suggests mixed results for both Biden and Sanders.

In April's UNH poll, Sanders topped Biden 30% to 18%. Biden's increase in support is surely a positive, but the April poll was conducted before he announced his candidacy for president, and his 24% support in the new poll is about the same as the level of support he held in February. Further, polling conducted by other firms in New Hampshire in May and June found Biden with a wide edge over Sanders, which he appears to have lost. But it's not all a loss for Biden: 45% in the new poll say he is the candidate with the best chance of winning in November, consistent with national polling on the topic and up 20 points among New Hampshire likely voters since April.

The news for Sanders is more clearly negative. His support has dipped 10 points since that April survey, and the share saying he has the best chance of winning in November has fallen from 30% in April to 16% now. Yet he remains widely viewed as the most progressive candidate in the field (40% see him that way, about the same as 36% saying so in April), has lost no ground when voters are asked who is most likable among the candidates (20% say so now, 22% did in April), and comes out on top by a double-digit margin as most trusted to handle both health care and the climate crisis -- two issues frequently cited as most important by likely Democratic primary voters.

Warren, on the other hand, sees positive shifts nearly across the board. She has increased her support in New Hampshire by 14 points since April in the new poll, and the share saying they would not vote for her under any circumstances has dipped from 14% (the highest for any candidate) in April to 8% now (behind Biden, who has been ruled out by 14%). Twenty two percent call her their second choice, up from 14% saying so in April. Warren also edges out Sanders among liberal voters, a group that made up about two-thirds of primary voters in 2016, according to the exit poll. Among that group, 26% back Warren, 20% Sanders, 16% Biden, 11% Harris and 10% Buttigieg.

Harris, broadly viewed as having had the best performance in the first set of Democratic debates a few weeks ago in this poll as well as others, does not appear to have made gains in New Hampshire that are as substantial as her improvement nationwide in the wake of that debate. Her support has risen just a few points compared with the April UNH poll (from 4% to 9%), though she has also increased the share who view her as their second choice (15% in this poll vs. 8% in April). Just 2% say they have ruled her out as an option, the lowest share to say so for any of the top four candidates nationally (14% have ruled out Biden, 8% Warren, 6% Sanders).

[Full results at link]:

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY:

*Change Research* (July 12, 2019)

Warren: 22%

Sanders: 20%

Biden: 19%

Harris: 15%

Buttigieg: 13%

Gabbard: 3%

(all others 1% or less)

**

Elizabeth Warren leads the New Hampshire Democratic primary, polling at 22%; Bernie Sanders follows closely behind at 20% and Joe Biden (19%) sits in third place. They are followed by Kamala Harris (15%), Pete Buttigieg (13%), and Tulsi Gabbard (3%). All other candidates poll at 1% or less.

Sanders has a 16-point lead among 18-34 year-olds, polling at 39%; Warren follows at 23%. Warren leads among Democratic primary voters aged 35-49 and 50-64. The race is close among 35-49 year-old voters: Warren leads at 23% but Biden (22%), and Sanders (20%) follow close behind. Biden leads among voters 65 and older at 26%, followed by Harris (20%).

Warren leads among women Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, polling at 26%; Biden (19%) and Sanders (18%) follow. Among men voters, Sanders leads at 25% and is followed by Biden (18%) and Warren (16%).

**

Change Research surveyed 2,264 registered voters in New Hampshire with a margin of error of ± 2.0% for the full sample. That sample includes 1,084 Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of ± 3.0% for the Democratic sample. (July 6-9, 2019)

July 11, 2019

NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll

Biden 26%

Warren 19%

Harris 13%

Sanders 13%

Buttigieg 7%

O’Rourke 2%

Yang 2%

[July 7-July 9, MOE: +/- 4.9%]

**

WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., lead the Democratic presidential field, according to the national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll’s opening measure of the 2020 horse race.

Biden gets the support of 26 percent of voters who say they will participate in next year’s Democratic primaries or caucuses, while 19 percent back Warren.

They’re followed by Sens. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who are tied at 13 percent.

South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets support from 7 percent of Democratic primary voters, and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke and entrepreneur Andrew Yang are at 2 percent.

No other candidate gets more than 1 percent.

Biden performs best among African Americans, older Democrats and those who are moderate or conservative in their political views, while Warren runs strongest with self-described liberals and those ages 18 to 49.

Sanders also performs best among the youngest Democratic primary voters.

This NBC/WSJ poll was conducted July 7-9, after the first Democratic debates and the subsequent candidate skirmishes over the issues of race and health care.

New candidate Tom Steyer didn’t enter the race until July 9, and the survey didn’t test support for the billionaire activist.

**

[More details at link]:

*New poll released this afternoon from Morning Consult*:

July 10, 2019

[quote]Former Vice President Joe Biden’s respective leads over Sens. Kamala Harris of California, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts shrink by 9 and 6 percentage points in poll of Democratic primary electorate’s most likely voters.

[quote]Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) underperforms his overall vote share by 7 points among highly likely primary voters.

**

Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have risen up the ranks of contenders for the Democratic presidential primary in recent months, closing the gap between the field and its current leader, former Vice President Joe Biden.

New Morning Consult polling showing preferences among the primary electorate’s most likely voters suggests that gap may be even smaller than it appears.

Biden holds respective 17- and 18-point leads over Harris and Warren in the latest survey of 16,599 Democratic primary voters, conducted July 1-7. But that advantage shrinks to 8 points over Harris and 12 points over Warren among the 4,604 voters who are most likely to vote: those who said they’re absolutely certain to vote in 2020, have voted in previous elections and are extremely interested in politics and public affairs. Both samples have 1-point margins of error.

Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod, who served as director of strategic communications for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, said the polling shows Biden’s support to be soft — particularly among the most motivated voters.

“While the top priority of a majority of voters is to defeat Trump and most still believe Biden is the best to take him on, that number is wavering and giving way to newer faces on the scene like Harris and Warren,” she said in an email. “If they can continue to convince voters that they too are just as electable in a head to head match up with Trump, I suspect this trend will continue.”

A Biden adviser said Wednesday that not one demographic is powering Biden’s lead in the Democratic primary, and the fundamentals of his support, such as his steady favorable rating, are strong.

It is true that Biden has held steady, but both Harris (by 4 points) and Warren (by 9 points) have improved their standing with the most likely Democratic voters since Morning Consult polling conducted Feb. 1-28, which also had a 1-point margin of error.

While Harris and Warren overperform with the party’s likeliest voters, it’s the opposite effect for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who trails the former vice president among the likeliest primary voters by 17 points, compared with a 12-point deficit among the overall primary electorate.

The most enthusiastic voters are 7 points less likely than the overall primary electorate to give Sanders first-choice status, 12 percent to 19 percent, while they’re 7 points more likely to back Harris. Warren has a 4-point advantage with the group compared to the overall electorate.

Since February, Sanders has lost 5 points with the group, matching his movement among the overall electorate over the same time period.

The lost momentum among the party’s most engaged voters may be a concern for Sanders, but there is also reason for optimism: potentially historic turnout. Voter participation in the 2018 midterm elections was the highest since 1914, according to the United States Elections Project.

Sarah Ford, a spokeswoman for the Sanders campaign, said the senator’s base is made up of people who “are more likely to be unsatisfied with the political status quo and less engaged with the political process.”

“In 2016 and today, Sen. Sanders motivates these disaffected voters and gets them to the polls when they otherwise wouldn’t participate,” she said in an email Wednesday.

*Q2 fundraising update*:

Decision Desk HQ

1. Buttigieg $24.8M

2. Biden $21.5M

3. Warren $19.1M

4. Sanders $18M

5. Harris $12M

6. Bennet $2.8M

7. Bullock $2M

8. Hickenlooper $1M

POLITICO | 07/05/2019

Right now, it looks like Governor Bullock is in, and Rep. Eric Swalwell is out.

**

A tight race is on for the 20th and final July debate slot, while a more exclusive group of Democrats is closing in on September's debate.

The first Democratic presidential debates illustrated just how important the national platform can be to presidential campaigns, shaking up the primary polls and reshuffling opinions of front-runners and lesser-known candidates alike. And Democrats are already scrambling to make sure they’re involved in the next rounds of televised debates later this summer and fall.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) tried to make a splash in June, urging former Vice President Joe Biden to “pass the torch” to younger Democrats — but the attack had little impact, and Swalwell is now in danger of missing the next round of debates in July and being replaced by Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who missed out on the June debates.

Meanwhile, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro has been polling near the back of the primary pack, but his splash in last week’s debate has gone a long way toward ensuring he can make the September debate, when the qualification thresholds rise significantly, posing an existential threat to many campaigns. Castro told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on Tuesday that he raised $1 million in the days following the debate, and that his campaign had around 116,000 donors — just shy of September’s 130,000-donor threshold with months still to go.

Currently, 21 candidates have passed a modest qualification threshold for the July debates, either hitting 1 percent in three qualifying polls or getting 65,000 donors. That’s one more candidate than the Democratic National Committee has said it will allow on stage across the two nights, meaning someone has to get cut.

The DNC’s tiebreakers prioritize candidates who hit both the polling and financial thresholds, followed by candidates who only have the polling benchmark, sorted by poll average, and then candidates who have hit only the donor mark

Fourteen candidates have crossed both of the thresholds, according to a POLITICO analysis, virtually guaranteeing their spot on stage on either July 30 or July 31: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Jay Inslee, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang.

That leaves seven candidates who have only crossed the polling threshold without a secure grasp on a debate-stage lectern. Some are marginally better off than others: John Delaney, John Hickenlooper and Tim Ryan all have polling averages slightly above 1 percentage point, meaning they rank ahead of the other candidates.

But four Democrats sit at a polling average of just 1 percent, with only three slots to give to them: Michael Bennet, Bullock, Bill de Blasio and Swalwell.

Because they’re all tied in a polling average, the next tiebreaker is the number of qualified polls they’ve scored. Swalwell has only reached the 1 percent mark in three qualifying polls. Bullock, meanwhile, is at five polls, Bennet is at six polls and de Blasio has eight.

Seth Moulton, Wayne Messam, Mike Gravel and Joe Sestak have not crossed either threshold, and none appear poised to make the stage. But the roster for those debates is not yet locked in; surveys from qualifying pollsters that are released by July 16 will count.

It is also not clear how the debate stages will be set, once the 20 candidates who will be on stage are confirmed. NBC News, the DNC’s media partner for the first debate, randomly and evenly divided a group of high-polling candidates and a group of low-polling candidates between the two nights of their debates. CNN, the host of the July debates, did not respond to a request from POLITICO on how the stages will be set. The DNC declined to answer questions on the stages.

[Full details at link]:

Arizona Republic | July 2, 2019

Democrat Mark Kelly, the retired astronaut who is hoping to unseat Republican Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona’s 2020 Senate race, raised $4.2 million during April, May and June, exceeding his first-quarter fundraising.

All told, he has raised $8.3 million since announcing his candidacy in February, and he has nearly $6 million cash on hand, according to his campaign.

More than 85,000 contributors have donated to Kelly's campaign, and more than 90% of his second-quarter donations were less than $100, highlighting his display of strength among small donors, his campaign said.

Kelly's performance likely gives him a financial advantage over McSally, the Republican incumbent who was appointed to the seat once held by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

“We have a tradition of independent leadership here in Arizona and this outpouring of support shows that people are fed up and pitching in to elect a leader who will stand up for our state and what's right," Kelly's campaign manager, Jen Cox, said in a written statement to The Arizona Republic.

McSally's campaign will release her second-quarter fundraising numbers next week. During the first quarter, she raised $2.1 million.

Neither McSally or Kelly have drawn competitive primary challengers for the marquee 2020 special election to fill the final two years of McCain’s unexpired term.

The race is deemed a toss-up by political analysts and it is expected to draw out-sized national attention and tens of millions of dollars in campaign contributions and outside advertising dollars.

Larry Sabato, the political scientist who directs the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said Kelly's fundraising is a reflection of his national profile and energy surrounding his campaign.

"He may be one of the very few Senate candidates to outspend an incumbent and that doesn't happen very often," Sabato said. "Kelly is one of the first people mentioned by national Democrats when they talk about their chances of picking up Republican seats — he's usually mentioned first."

Sabato said the key consideration for Arizona's Senate race may be one factor neither candidate can control with money: the result of the presidential race.

In 2016, Trump carried Arizona by just 3.5 percentage points over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

July 2, 2019

Biden still holds the lead in the critical Iowa caucus, but Kamala has made up ground. Biggest loser is Bernie who finished a close 2nd to Hillary in Iowa in 2016.

**

Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll:

*IOWA**

Biden: 24%

Harris: 16%

Warren: 13%

Sanders: 9%

June 28, 2019

(Reuters) - About 18.1 million television viewers watched Thursday night’s debate among 10 Democrats running for U.S. president, a record for a Democratic primary face-off, according to Nielsen data released by NBC News.

The debate featuring front-runners Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders was shown on broadcaster NBC, cable channel MSNBC and Spanish-language network Telemundo.

New poll from Morning Consult for June 27, 2019:

-> Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is less popular among registered voters than the former VP in 8 key 2020 states, including Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

-> Unlike the lesser-known top contenders in the race, opinions about Sanders are already well-formed, giving him less room to increase his appeal to voters.

-> But he has a big thing going for him: In many key battleground states, voters who dislike President Donald Trump outnumber those who support him.

***

*How to read the Morning Consult chart*:

The higher the dots are, the more popular. The further to the right, the more well-known.

This is good news for Biden (well-known, liked). Warren, Harris & Buttigieg (not as known = room to grow), not great for Sanders.

How the Democrats do against Trump in 12 key states:

NIGHT 1 - JUNE 26

NBC, MSNBC & Telemundo at 9PM ET

JUNE 24, 2019

New poll from Morning Consult released tonight:

KEY TAKEAWAYS

1.) For the second week in a row, Warren continues to grow her vote share. Biden and Sanders remain unchanged from last week. Elizabeth Warren sees a +2 rise to 13% of the vote, 6-points behind Sanders. Warren’s rise does not appear to have come at the expense of Sanders: In the past six weeks, Warren has gained 5 points of vote share while Sanders has remained steady.

2.) Elizabeth Warren’s rise from a second to first-tier candidate is clear. From being virtually tied with Harris and O’Rourke in April to becoming the clear third- choice candidate, Warren saw a 10-point increase in net favorability since February. In that same time period, Biden’s net favorability has fallen 9-points.

**

Joe Biden (38%) 0

Bernie Sanders (19%) 0

Elizabeth Warren (13%) +2

Pete Buttigieg (7%) 0

Kamala Harris (6%) -1

Beto O'Rourke (4%) 0

Cory Booker (3%) 0

Andrew Yang (2%) +1

***

The following candidates received 1% or less of the vote: Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Julian Castro, Tim Ryan, John Hickenlooper, Tulsi Gabbard, Michael Bennet, John Delaney, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Jay Inslee, Eric Swalwell, Seth Moulton and Marianne Williamson.

**

This week’s report features surveys with registered voters conducted from June 17, 2019 to June 23, 2019. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.

Our Democratic Primary results are reported using 16,188 interviews with registered voters who indicate they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. For those who say don’t know or no opinion, they are asked to pick a candidate they are learning towards, which are factored into the results. The margin of error for potential Democratic primary voters is +/-1%.

June 18, 2019

On the first night, Elizabeth Warren and Beto O’Rourke will be center stage, and on the second night, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

**

NIGHT 1: De Blasio, Ryan, Castro, Booker, Warren, O'Rourke, Klobuchar, Gabbard, Inslee, Delaney

**

NIGHT 2: Williamson, Hickenlooper, Yang, Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders, Harris, Gillibrand, Bennet, Swalwell

June 16, 2019

Trump trails Biden & Sanders by large margins. Warren, Harris & Buttigieg have small leads over Trump.

**

Biden (49 percent) + 10

Trump (39 percent)

** Sanders (49 percent) +9

Trump (40 percent)

**

Warren (43%) +2

Trump (41%)

** Harris (42%) +1

Trump (41%)

** Buttigieg (41%) +1

Trump (40%)

**

-> The Fox poll was conducted June 9-12, 2019 by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R).

-> 1,001 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones.

- > Margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

June 16, 2019

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s campaign has decided to purge some of its pollsters after a leak of dismal internal polls for the president that he denied existed.

Just two days before the president is set to kick off his bid for re-election, a top adviser said on Sunday that the campaign was cutting ties with three of its five pollsters to prevent further disclosure of survey data.

The polling showed Mr. Trump behind former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in several key battleground states, including by double digits in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The results were confirmed to The New York Times by advisers to Mr. Trump, but when they became public, he called them “fake polls.”

For days, aides to Mr. Trump have tried to figure out whom to point the finger at over the leak of the data, which jolted and infuriated the president. But in continuing to discuss it, aides violated a long-held unofficial rule of campaigns not to comment publicly on internal polling, even if the numbers leak.

The resulting furor led to an effort by the campaign manager, Brad Parscale, to tighten control. By removing several pollsters, the campaign hopes to shrink the circle of outside operatives who have access to information that could leak, according to the presidential adviser, who was not authorized to speak publicly.

The rupture of the team came even as the president and his advisers were preparing for a large and elaborate rally in Orlando, Fla., on Tuesday night to formally open his campaign for a second term. Mr. Trump was hoping for a show of strength as Democrats had drawn increasing attention before their first debates on June 26 and 27.

The internal poll numbers, while not predictive, painted a bleak picture of the current state of the race for Mr. Trump, at least against Mr. Biden, when they were taken in March. They showed a number of critical states at risk — not just Florida and the Midwestern states, but even some longtime Republican bastions like Georgia. A Democratic state that Mr. Trump’s aides have insisted they want to put in play, Minnesota, appeared out of reach for the president.

The polling was reported on by The Times nearly two months ago without citing specific numbers. Last week, The Times reported that Mr. Trump had told aides to deny that such polls existed and to say that other data in the survey showed him doing well.

Some aides to the president appeared to be using the episode to undermine one of his closest advisers, Kellyanne Conway, who was Mr. Trump’s final campaign manager in 2016 and is now his White House counselor. Ms. Conway’s relationship with Mr. Trump, and the praise he has given her for his 2016 victory, have long stirred envy among other advisers to the president. Her former firm, the Polling Company, was one of the ones to be ousted. Ms. Conway no longer has any formal ties to the company, which was sold in 2017 to CRC Public Relations, a well-known conservative advocacy firm.

In addition to Ms. Conway’s former firm, the Trump adviser said the campaign would cut ties with Adam Geller, a pollster for former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Michael Baselice, a pollster for former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, both late additions to Mr. Trump’s campaign in 2016.

[Full details at NYT link]:

June 14, 2019

Data from President Donald Trump's first internal reelection campaign poll conducted in March, obtained exclusively by ABC News, showed him losing a matchup by wide margins to former Vice President Joe Biden in key battleground states.

Trump has repeatedly denied that such data exists.

The polling data, revealed for the first time by ABC News, showed a double-digit lead for Biden in Pennsylvania 55-39 and Wisconsin 51-41 and had Biden leading by seven points in Florida. In Texas, a Republican stronghold, the numbers showed the president only leading by two points.

ABC News did not obtain the poll’s early matchups against other candidates.

The New York Times was first to report the existence of the internal polls.

When presented by ABC News with these numbers, the Trump campaign confirmed the data saying in a statement that the numbers were old and that they have seen huge swings in Trump’s favor.

“These leaked numbers are ancient, in campaign terms, from months-old polling that began in March before two major events had occurred: the release of the summary of the Mueller report exonerating the President, and the beginning of the Democrat candidates defining themselves with their far-left policy message,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale told ABC News in a statement. “Since then, we have seen huge swings in the President’s favor across the 17 states we have polled, based on the policies now espoused by the Democrats. For example, the plan to provide free health care to illegal immigrants results in an 18-point swing toward President Trump.”

Attorney General Bill Barr’s summary of special counsel Robert Mueller investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election was released on March 24. While the Trump campaign’s full poll, which canvassed 17 states, was already in the field, it was well underway for four additional days after the release of Barr’s letter to the public.

The poll was conducted from March 15 through March 28.

The Trump campaign did not provide the results of the full 17 state poll, matchups against other candidates nor any updated polling figures.

[Full article at link]: