*New York 3rd Congressional District Special Election Results*
The race to replace Miss George Santos will be decided tonight! š
Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) vs. Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip (R)
Suozzi has a small lead in the polls so far, and early voting numbers have been good for Democrats. Republicans are hoping for a good Election Day turnout today, so the effect of today's snowstorm in New York could be important in the turnout for the parties.
Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
by Anonymous | reply 229 | February 18, 2024 2:33 AM
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I'm writing in Kitara Ravache.
by Anonymous | reply 2 | February 13, 2024 6:26 PM
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Mazi just as crazy,Repig-tool, santos trial in Sept,too long to wait but hope he gets fried, TRUMPFAGGOT!
by Anonymous | reply 3 | February 13, 2024 6:32 PM
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I predict the winner will have a Z in their name.
by Anonymous | reply 4 | February 13, 2024 6:36 PM
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I predict a registered Democrat will win.
by Anonymous | reply 5 | February 13, 2024 6:46 PM
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[quote]I predict the winner will have a Z in their name.
LIES!
by Anonymous | reply 6 | February 13, 2024 6:54 PM
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I don't understand this: Mazi is a Democrat but she's running on the Republican Party line? So she's a stooge of the Republicans and likely on their payroll to screw Democrats in the House?
by Anonymous | reply 7 | February 13, 2024 7:01 PM
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Was there much snow there today? Enough that it could affect the turnout?
by Anonymous | reply 8 | February 13, 2024 7:17 PM
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Isnāt there another thread on this? What happened to it? I saw it yesterday.
by Anonymous | reply 9 | February 13, 2024 7:30 PM
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So, the polls show a slight lead by the Democrat, eh? My prediction is that Tom will win handily, thus demonstrating how useless these polls have been over the last few years.
by Anonymous | reply 10 | February 13, 2024 7:39 PM
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Tomās not Jewish and the whole Hamas-Israel hysteria hadnāt happened when he represented the district. Also, the district was redrawn by a conservative judge appointed by Andrew Cuomo. Many, many people in the district will vote for Philip because sheās Jewish.
by Anonymous | reply 11 | February 13, 2024 10:46 PM
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R9, yes, we had an earlier thread about Suozzi, but I created this new thread earlier today for tonight's Election Results.
I agree with the posters above that the Democrats have reason to be cautiously optimistic tonight:
1) Suozzi has had a small lead in the polls that have been conducted over the past month
2) Early voting numbers by registered Democrats are so far about 10,000 ahead of the Republicans.
To answer R8's question, the snow was bad earlier today, but the weather improved later in the day. Still, it may have depressed turnout for the Republicans who were counting on a big E-Day vote today.
by Anonymous | reply 12 | February 13, 2024 11:14 PM
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NY-03 is only 11% Jewish. Itās my area of NY-04 that is the Jewish part of Long Island.
by Anonymous | reply 13 | February 13, 2024 11:15 PM
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It would be awful if the Repub won. Horrible sign for Biden and Dems in November.
by Anonymous | reply 15 | February 13, 2024 11:33 PM
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Will it be a horrible sign for Trump if she loses?
by Anonymous | reply 16 | February 13, 2024 11:39 PM
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I think people should feel obligated to vote no matter what the weather is.
by Anonymous | reply 17 | February 13, 2024 11:40 PM
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[quote] I think people should feel obligated
R17, you're naive, dear.
by Anonymous | reply 18 | February 13, 2024 11:42 PM
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9pm seems really late to have polls open. Who votes that late at night?
by Anonymous | reply 20 | February 13, 2024 11:54 PM
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Polls are always open 6 AM to 9 PM in NY. I assume because long hours and long commutes are common.
by Anonymous | reply 21 | February 13, 2024 11:58 PM
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Aren't people all snowed in ?
by Anonymous | reply 23 | February 14, 2024 12:04 AM
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R15, why? It's a Republican majority district.
by Anonymous | reply 24 | February 14, 2024 12:07 AM
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The local news is treating this as a horse race, George Santos is not even in their discussion.
They are not asking who Phillip is. They're not interested.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 25 | February 14, 2024 12:08 AM
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It stopped snowing in NYC around noon or 1, and the sun came out a little, so no, R23.
by Anonymous | reply 26 | February 14, 2024 12:10 AM
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Pilip won't even answer basic questions about herself
Santos 2.0
by Anonymous | reply 27 | February 14, 2024 12:15 AM
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There's a special election also going on in PA, for a State House seat. It's a blue seat but Dems are overperforming
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 28 | February 14, 2024 12:22 AM
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R28 More like sweeping the floor.
by Anonymous | reply 29 | February 14, 2024 12:36 AM
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Itās not over til the fat lady stings!
by Anonymous | reply 32 | February 14, 2024 12:57 AM
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Suozzi has a 2-1 lead in the early numbers coming through now. That's as expected.
by Anonymous | reply 33 | February 14, 2024 1:05 AM
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This is the Queens vote coming in.
by Anonymous | reply 35 | February 14, 2024 1:08 AM
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I've seen enough. I'm calling bedtime.
by Anonymous | reply 36 | February 14, 2024 1:13 AM
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Won't he only be elected for a year?
by Anonymous | reply 39 | February 14, 2024 1:24 AM
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And the winner is...."Anthony Devolder" as a write-in
by Anonymous | reply 40 | February 14, 2024 1:24 AM
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[quote]Will it be a horrible sign for Trump if she loses?
Don't be silly, ElderLez! If a Republican wins, it's a dire sign for Biden. If a Democrat wins, it bears no relation to the chances of the 81-year-old Biden whom everyone is so concerned about.
by Anonymous | reply 41 | February 14, 2024 1:25 AM
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Both candidates said they will run for a full term in November. So whoever wins will face off with the same opponent nine months from now.
by Anonymous | reply 44 | February 14, 2024 1:38 AM
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I hope Steve Kornacki has found a hot daddy to poke his pooper.
by Anonymous | reply 45 | February 14, 2024 1:41 AM
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Thank you for sharing, r45.
by Anonymous | reply 46 | February 14, 2024 1:42 AM
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His ass ain't much, R45. They showed a shot of him from behind.
by Anonymous | reply 47 | February 14, 2024 1:42 AM
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What happened to his tan khakis ? Why is he wearing gray these days ?
by Anonymous | reply 48 | February 14, 2024 1:43 AM
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R45, isn't Kornacki a Repub?
by Anonymous | reply 49 | February 14, 2024 1:44 AM
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[quote]This is the Queens vote coming in.
Gays have their own precinct?
by Anonymous | reply 50 | February 14, 2024 1:45 AM
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Just thought I would derail the thread for a bit with Kornacki talk R46! You're welcome.
by Anonymous | reply 51 | February 14, 2024 1:45 AM
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I wrote in "George Santos" on my ballot
by Anonymous | reply 52 | February 14, 2024 1:46 AM
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I have a crush on Harry Enten. He's the one I fantasize about. š„
by Anonymous | reply 53 | February 14, 2024 1:48 AM
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The gays all love Harry Enten, and were heartbroken when he turned out to be straight despite his fey demeanor.
by Anonymous | reply 54 | February 14, 2024 1:53 AM
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Looking like a call for Suozzi is coming soon.
by Anonymous | reply 56 | February 14, 2024 2:03 AM
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Is this going to be as tight as predicted or will it be a blow out for Suozzi?
by Anonymous | reply 57 | February 14, 2024 2:03 AM
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District 3 - the early votes always favor democrats. Itās when they get around to counting Election Day votes that the race tightens up.
by Anonymous | reply 58 | February 14, 2024 2:03 AM
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**Decision Desk HQ calls the race for SUOZZI.**
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 59 | February 14, 2024 2:04 AM
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Who is reporting 51% in ? MSNBC only has 14% in right now.
by Anonymous | reply 61 | February 14, 2024 2:05 AM
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[quote]Is this going to be as tight as predicted or will it be a blow out for Suozzi?
Not as tight as my pussy!
by Anonymous | reply 62 | February 14, 2024 2:05 AM
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R61, both CNN and MSNBC have it at 51%.
That's why it's enough for Decision Desk to call it for Suozzi after that big vote batch that just came in.
by Anonymous | reply 63 | February 14, 2024 2:06 AM
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I knew my handsome daddy would win.
by Anonymous | reply 64 | February 14, 2024 2:08 AM
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USA Today has also called it for Suozzi.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 65 | February 14, 2024 2:09 AM
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WaPo calls it for Suazzi.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 67 | February 14, 2024 2:11 AM
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I heard a reporter say earlier today that this race would be so close that āwe may not know who won tonight, or tomorrow, or even the next day.ā
That didnāt age well.
by Anonymous | reply 68 | February 14, 2024 2:11 AM
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I was listening in my car to the NYT Daily podcast, which was focused on how close this race was. I finished it as I got home at 9:55. The NYT just called it for Suozzi, less than 20 minutes later.
by Anonymous | reply 69 | February 14, 2024 2:12 AM
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How sad. Another Republican loss. :(
by Anonymous | reply 73 | February 14, 2024 2:15 AM
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Another election where Democrats outperform the polls. Same as it has been since Trump.
Democrats win.. Fuck the polls.
by Anonymous | reply 75 | February 14, 2024 2:19 AM
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CNN, NYT, Steve Kornackie; Why Suozziās blowout win is bad news for Biden!
by Anonymous | reply 76 | February 14, 2024 2:19 AM
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Pilip is conceding the race now.
by Anonymous | reply 77 | February 14, 2024 2:19 AM
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On the brighter side of things, Mazi now has time to go back and volunteer with the IDF again.
by Anonymous | reply 78 | February 14, 2024 2:20 AM
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Clearly Suozzi's victory bodes well for Trump!
by Anonymous | reply 79 | February 14, 2024 2:20 AM
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Miss Scott Presler must be beside herself this evening!
by Anonymous | reply 80 | February 14, 2024 2:21 AM
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NBC has now called the race for Suozzi.
by Anonymous | reply 81 | February 14, 2024 2:21 AM
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CNN calls the race for Suozzi.
by Anonymous | reply 82 | February 14, 2024 2:22 AM
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Get ready for the blue š wave
by Anonymous | reply 83 | February 14, 2024 2:23 AM
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Looks like he's gonna trounce her.
by Anonymous | reply 84 | February 14, 2024 2:23 AM
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Donald Trump claims this election was rigged.
by Anonymous | reply 85 | February 14, 2024 2:23 AM
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He might get sworn in tomorrow?? Special elections are fun!
by Anonymous | reply 86 | February 14, 2024 2:24 AM
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[quote]Donald Trump claims this election was rigged.
Wow, who saw that coming?
by Anonymous | reply 87 | February 14, 2024 2:25 AM
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Oh, well, this has aged rather well.
[quote] So, the polls show a slight lead by the Democrat, eh? My prediction is that Tom will win handily, thus demonstrating how useless these polls have been over the last few years.
š
by Anonymous | reply 90 | February 14, 2024 2:29 AM
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Any news on the Pennsylvania state house race?
by Anonymous | reply 91 | February 14, 2024 2:30 AM
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Sahil Kapur is reporting for MSNBC - he's scary looking.
by Anonymous | reply 92 | February 14, 2024 2:31 AM
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Yeah, it looks like Suozzi is going to overperform what the polls were predicting. Most of them predicted that he had a 4-point lead. We'll see what the final results are.
by Anonymous | reply 93 | February 14, 2024 2:32 AM
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Hoping for a Democratic sweep this November.
by Anonymous | reply 95 | February 14, 2024 2:34 AM
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"Any news on the Pennsylvania state house race?"
Dems won
by Anonymous | reply 96 | February 14, 2024 2:34 AM
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That protestor who got up in his face ended up falling ass over tit.
by Anonymous | reply 97 | February 14, 2024 2:36 AM
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That was so funny and deserved. Fucking soy boy.
by Anonymous | reply 98 | February 14, 2024 2:37 AM
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The Pennsylvania race wasn't even close the Democrat is leading with 73% of the vote with 67% of the vote in.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 100 | February 14, 2024 2:37 AM
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R97 That was soooo funny !
by Anonymous | reply 101 | February 14, 2024 2:37 AM
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More of a blowout than I expected. He did a good job of fighting back on the immigration issue. Dems have to take issues the voters care about seriously. Good model for future elections.
by Anonymous | reply 102 | February 14, 2024 2:38 AM
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R100, the voters appear to be rejecting Republican politicians and policies this go-around. Wonder why?
by Anonymous | reply 103 | February 14, 2024 2:38 AM
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Another overperformance by the Democrat. I'm sure Andrea Mitchell will be saying how this is a predictor of a Biden loss in November.
by Anonymous | reply 104 | February 14, 2024 2:38 AM
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The protester is probably in the ER right now - that was quite a fall.
by Anonymous | reply 106 | February 14, 2024 2:39 AM
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A Democrat also won a NY legislative race. 78-22 vote.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 107 | February 14, 2024 2:39 AM
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Suozzi has a great personality - he comes across very genuine and empathetic.
by Anonymous | reply 108 | February 14, 2024 2:40 AM
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R107, these aren't just wins. They're landslides.
by Anonymous | reply 109 | February 14, 2024 2:40 AM
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Now would be a good time for Cro-Marge or Rapey Gaetz to call a vote to oust Mike Johnson as Speaker.
Speaker Jeffries could happen....
by Anonymous | reply 110 | February 14, 2024 2:41 AM
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CNN: I talked to voters today who voted for Donald Trump previously and now voted Democratic because they think Republicans canāt govern
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 111 | February 14, 2024 2:41 AM
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it's too bad the Presidential elections couldn't be a "special elections" - on some random Tuesday night in February. Democrats seem like they are always over-performing polls in the special elections.
R108 Suozzi is kind of a jerk actually. But really glad he won, and won so big.
by Anonymous | reply 112 | February 14, 2024 2:43 AM
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Republicans refusing to pass bills dealing with immigration, Ukraine and Israel will bite them in the butt. They spend their energy on stunts to win Republican primaries and then wonāt be able to win general elections.
by Anonymous | reply 113 | February 14, 2024 2:46 AM
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Good news. Congrats to the winner and the voters who said ENOUGH to the clowns and grifters.
by Anonymous | reply 114 | February 14, 2024 2:46 AM
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[quote] I have a crush on Harry Enten.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 115 | February 14, 2024 2:46 AM
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Yay. I donāt live in the district but close enough that the ads have been non-stop.
Pilip can take her pro-life ass and go home.
by Anonymous | reply 116 | February 14, 2024 2:48 AM
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I was so shocked the first time I heard Harry Enten talk about his girlfriend, I was sure he was gay.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 117 | February 14, 2024 2:49 AM
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I like Harry Enten because 1) I've learned a lot about polling analysis from him, and 2) because he's cute and I'd like to explore his hairy body. š
by Anonymous | reply 118 | February 14, 2024 2:52 AM
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Could be Enten is gay and his 'girlfriend' is his beard.
by Anonymous | reply 120 | February 14, 2024 3:00 AM
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Dems won this seat back and that awful slag Kari Lake got booed by Arizona Republicans.
by Anonymous | reply 121 | February 14, 2024 3:00 AM
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I guess the Elise Stefanik endorsement didn't work out for her
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 122 | February 14, 2024 3:03 AM
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Wonder who George Santos voted for ?
by Anonymous | reply 124 | February 14, 2024 3:07 AM
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If you take him at his word, R124, Santos said he wouldnāt be voting, R124.
by Anonymous | reply 125 | February 14, 2024 3:14 AM
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I'm fine everyone, just practicing for the World Volleyball Championship!
by Anonymous | reply 126 | February 14, 2024 3:15 AM
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Philps is the Kitara Rivache of the George Santos.
Who is she?
by Anonymous | reply 127 | February 14, 2024 3:17 AM
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Waiting for The NY Times to report how Democrats overperforming in yet another election is terrible for Biden.
by Anonymous | reply 128 | February 14, 2024 3:19 AM
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You know the media is pissed at these election results because they can't spend weeks predicting the end of Biden and the Democrats in November.
by Anonymous | reply 129 | February 14, 2024 3:23 AM
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Don't worry, R129, they will continue.
by Anonymous | reply 130 | February 14, 2024 3:25 AM
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It was never tight R60. The polls closed at 9 and it was called by 9:45 for Suozzi. Heās going to win by ten points. Thatās not even remotely tight, in fact itās a landslide.
But of course thatās ātightā for you Trumpy chicken littles. lol.
by Anonymous | reply 131 | February 14, 2024 3:25 AM
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Trump savages Mazi, saying she didn't run on loving him and his name.
by Anonymous | reply 132 | February 14, 2024 3:28 AM
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In a low-key rebuke to 81 year old Biden, Democrats in New York have elected a man in his early sixties to replace the seat held by Americaās sweetheart, George Santos.
The president was unavailable for comment, presumably napping or sundowning or being changed.
by Anonymous | reply 133 | February 14, 2024 3:28 AM
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There were 3 credible polls done for this district over the past month or so. They all showed Suozzi winning by only 4 points. However, he's likely to win tonight by twice that margin. With nearly 90% of the vote in, he's leading by over 8 points.
by Anonymous | reply 134 | February 14, 2024 3:29 AM
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Republicans tried to make this about the border.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 136 | February 14, 2024 3:30 AM
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This poll had Suozzi only winning by one point....
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 137 | February 14, 2024 3:37 AM
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Andrea Mitchell is probably changing her husband's diaper right now, cursing her lot in life. How can she spin this tomorrow to be a bad result for Joe Biden???
by Anonymous | reply 138 | February 14, 2024 3:39 AM
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Republicans trying to win by misrepresenting the polls or by cheating.
by Anonymous | reply 139 | February 14, 2024 3:41 AM
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The idea that Andrea Mitchell is somehow secretly pro-Trump is laughable.
by Anonymous | reply 140 | February 14, 2024 3:42 AM
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^ No, but she's always pissing on Biden and the Democrats. I guess it's the "we can't appear to be biased towards Democrats, so we'll go extra hard on them" mentality. To the point of ridiculousness.
You can't compare a shoplifter to a serial killer. They may both technically be criminals, but both are not the same.
by Anonymous | reply 141 | February 14, 2024 3:44 AM
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Andrea Mitchell is establishment Republican. They see Trump as a useful idiot at most. They want the old blueblood elite back in charge of America.
by Anonymous | reply 142 | February 14, 2024 3:45 AM
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R83, hopefully more like a blue tsunami.
by Anonymous | reply 143 | February 14, 2024 3:45 AM
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Andrea Mitchell is most certainly not a Republican, establishment or otherwise. Sheesh.
by Anonymous | reply 144 | February 14, 2024 3:47 AM
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The economy is roaring, covid is defeated, the world is at relative peace. President Biden will win this thing. The economy and abortion will be how we, Democrats, ride our Blue Wave to victory come November. That weirdo Trump is no longer a novice. The fat fuck has a record. Wanna talk about the Border? Then, why didn't Trump close it if it's so bad! Covid!? Trump let it spread. The economy? 5 million jobs were lost on his watch.
by Anonymous | reply 146 | February 14, 2024 3:49 AM
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Andrea Mitchell's husband, nursing home candidate Alan Greenspan, is an Ayn Rand libertarian devotee. He would host salons where they'd sit around and read her stupid books.
by Anonymous | reply 147 | February 14, 2024 3:50 AM
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While I, too, think Biden will win, R146, itās pretty nonsensical to say that the world is at relative peace.
by Anonymous | reply 148 | February 14, 2024 3:52 AM
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No doubt that Andreaās husband is a throwback establishment Republican, but her politics have been not so secretly more liberal.
by Anonymous | reply 149 | February 14, 2024 3:55 AM
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Dana Bash says several voters told her that they voted for Suozzi because Republicans tanked the bipartisan border security deal
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 150 | February 14, 2024 4:01 AM
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[quote]According to the list of registered voters from the District of Columbia Board of Elections, Andrea Mitchell, as of 2016, is a registered Democrat.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 151 | February 14, 2024 4:07 AM
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It doesnāt matter what youāre registered as. KY has more registered Rs than Ds yet vote overwhelmingly R.
Democrats have outperformed the polls for over 7 years. Voters, despite overwhelmingly favorable media coverage for Republicans, see through enough of their BS and vote Democrat.
Keep ignoring the trend. All signs point to Democrats holding the presidency, the Senate, and regaining the House in a big way.
Weāve all seen the Republicans for the incompetent morons they are.
by Anonymous | reply 152 | February 14, 2024 4:13 AM
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Polls are weapon's-grade bullshit.
Republicans couldn't run a popsicle stand.
Biden will be comfortably re-elected in November.
by Anonymous | reply 153 | February 14, 2024 4:13 AM
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^^^more registered Ds than Rs that should say
by Anonymous | reply 154 | February 14, 2024 4:14 AM
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R153 Correct, very comfortably.
by Anonymous | reply 155 | February 14, 2024 4:16 AM
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I know it's a pipe dream, but it would be delicious if that evil cunt Elsie Stefanik got kicked to the curb in November.
by Anonymous | reply 156 | February 14, 2024 4:27 AM
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I am truly honored and very surprised to be reelected by a landslide in my former district!! I had no idea that I would be a surprise write in candidate, I promise to serve my constituency with as much honesty and integrity as I have shown in the past to the best of my abilities, thank you thank you thank you!
by Anonymous | reply 157 | February 14, 2024 5:14 AM
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R137, yeah, that was a suspect poll. I saw it yesterday and decided to do a little research on "JL Partners". They are a British Conservative polling company who poll for The Daily Mail and who used to work for former Conservative PM Theresa May. Not sure why they inserted themselves into a New York Special Election, unless it was at the behest of the New York Post.
by Anonymous | reply 159 | February 14, 2024 6:20 AM
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CNN...
Better remember Suozzi is "unique"
Dems see "warning sign" in this special election
Even when we win they spin their ass in circles to make it seem we lost.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 160 | February 14, 2024 9:38 AM
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It was a weird race in a weird district, but the swing isnāt weird or an outlier. As Chris Christie would say Republicans are going to get smoked in November.
by Anonymous | reply 161 | February 14, 2024 9:58 AM
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To be fair to the legitimate polls which showed Suozzi +4, but had Pilip within the margin of error of winning, Suozzi +8 was also within the margin of error.
And finally Pilip gave a gracious, early concession speech. Itās a shame sheās drifted over to the Republican Party.
by Anonymous | reply 162 | February 14, 2024 10:21 AM
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Republicans are desperately luring (buying) minority candidates to run.
by Anonymous | reply 163 | February 14, 2024 11:06 AM
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Please, R138, we have a member of Georgetown U. Objectivist Society do that!
by Anonymous | reply 164 | February 14, 2024 11:27 AM
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Pilip giving an early concession speech was such a relief. Thatās what used to be the norm in pre Trump America.
by Anonymous | reply 165 | February 14, 2024 11:42 AM
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I know it's probably an unpopular opinion here, but I think Hochul's unpopularity was a 2022 drag for Dem candidates helping Santos.
by Anonymous | reply 166 | February 14, 2024 11:51 AM
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Suck my asshole R160. CNN is Fox 2.0.
by Anonymous | reply 167 | February 14, 2024 11:54 AM
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Are you in any physical danger R148? Have you EVER been in any physical danger from forces outside of the US? No, you havenāt. The world is at relative peace in the context of history. Ukraine and Israel do not affect you in any real way and never will. None of the conflicts in the Middle East will ever touch you.
by Anonymous | reply 168 | February 14, 2024 11:56 AM
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What killed the Dems was the crime issue. They needed to address it forcefully just like Suozzi did with immigration. You have to be where the people are. Lecturing people about how crime isnāt that bad historically or theyāre racists if anti immigrant is NOT the way to win elections. Itās also OK to acknowledge that Biden is old and doddering. Just make the point heās still better than Trump.
No the world is not at relative peace. And even during W2 people in the US were safe. The world is scary and thatās why Trump would be a disaster
by Anonymous | reply 169 | February 14, 2024 11:58 AM
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Killed the NY Dems in 22ā¦
by Anonymous | reply 170 | February 14, 2024 12:00 PM
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Yes, it is safe here and has always been. You donāt know what danger is. You donāt live in a third world country. Your fantasizing about WW3 notwithstanding.
by Anonymous | reply 171 | February 14, 2024 12:02 PM
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The vote in the Nassau portion of D-3 was in line with the three reliable polls. Suozzi overperformed in the Queens portion of the district.
by Anonymous | reply 172 | February 14, 2024 12:05 PM
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R172, the NYT results are showing (with 93% of the vote counted) 53% to 47%āthat spread is 50% higher than the polls, which had Suozzi winning by 4%. Within the margin of error, yes, but at the higher end of the predictions. The Queens portion of the district is much smaller than the Nassau portion and can't account for all of Suozzi's outperformance of the polls.
by Anonymous | reply 173 | February 14, 2024 12:14 PM
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Yes, it can. And it did. Basic math.
by Anonymous | reply 174 | February 14, 2024 12:19 PM
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It was a nice relief to see the loser give her concession speech, and not try to call 'foul' and say the election was somehow 'stolen'.
by Anonymous | reply 175 | February 14, 2024 12:19 PM
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[quote] 2) Early voting numbers by registered Democrats are so far about 10,000 ahead of the Republicans. To answer [R8]'s question, the snow was bad earlier today, but the weather improved later in the day. Still, it may have depressed turnout for the Republicans who were counting on a big E-Day vote today.
Some people in the GOP have expressed that they get it, that Republicans need to embrace early voting. However, Election Day voting is a habit that the RNC is going to find hard to break with its voters. They could learn another lesson about the peril of waiting until Election Day from this election, but they may just chalk up the loss to Santos fatigue and it being a Democratic district. Itās not just weather that keeps people from voting on a specific day. Democrats are always going to have a boost from their early voting strategy.
by Anonymous | reply 176 | February 14, 2024 12:20 PM
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A combination of a very inflexible bail reform bill plus a lot of scare mongering about the city that resonated with suburban commuters who had switched to WFH and had not returned to the office but had traumatic memories of the city in the 80s influenced the ā22 vote.
More people are back in the city now and bail reform is being reformed. New Yorkers by and large are pro-immigration, just not the Republican intentional mess.
by Anonymous | reply 177 | February 14, 2024 12:21 PM
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R174, "basic math" says that even if you leave aside the Queens portion of the district, Suozzi's win is higher than the polls predicted. Your "in line with" at R172 fudges that. He overperformed in the Nassau portion, too.
by Anonymous | reply 178 | February 14, 2024 12:29 PM
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No āyou yourself said as to that portion it was within the margin of error. In any case, itās not just āpollingā but based on historic voting patterns.
Heās ahead by 7% overall. Heās ahead by 6% in Nassau. Heās ahead by 24% in Queens. Thereās a word political scientists and commentators use to describe such a discrepancy. Itās on the tip of my tongueā¦it will come to me..oh yes: overperform.
by Anonymous | reply 179 | February 14, 2024 12:38 PM
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R167, re-read R160 again.
Your anger and dirty asshole are misplaced.
by Anonymous | reply 180 | February 14, 2024 1:50 PM
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He went from margin of error polling for months, to swinging back the district by nearly 8 percent.
It has happened again.
Trump/MAGA is poison. To use a dark analogy: Rs are in their last hour at Jonestown. They've downed the Kool-Aid and are starting to fall over.
by Anonymous | reply 181 | February 14, 2024 2:17 PM
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Anyone looked at Great Neck numbers for identity voting Dem fall-off as mentioned?
by Anonymous | reply 182 | February 14, 2024 2:19 PM
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R181 Exactly. With some exceptions, Dems have out-performed polls in the elections since 2018. Yes the Pollers will say "the last polls showed that the end results were predicted, "within the margin of error".... yep, and the "margin" has tracked for Dems in so many of these elections. Dems are more motivated and the early voting and GOTV structures of the Dem party have produced.
Biden needs to address the age issue; if he does he'll be re-elected and the Dems will take back the House. Senate is harder.
by Anonymous | reply 183 | February 14, 2024 2:31 PM
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[quote] Anyone looked at Great Neck numbers for identity voting Dem fall-off as mentioned?
Thatās where Kris Kringle lives.
by Anonymous | reply 184 | February 14, 2024 2:36 PM
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Souzzi won by a narrow but incontestable margin: 54 percent to 46 percent with 93 percent of the expected vote reported - MSN
Since when is 12 points a ānarrowā lead? Its a fucking blowout in todayās political climate,
The media is making Trumpās narrative for him. āItās riggedā because faulty media polls keep lying. Weāre being seriously gaslit by billionaire media owners.
by Anonymous | reply 185 | February 14, 2024 2:37 PM
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It's 8 points, R185, but yes, the media outlets are always looking for "bad news for Dems" even when their own evidence shows the opposite.
by Anonymous | reply 186 | February 14, 2024 2:38 PM
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[quote] Pilip thought widespread unhappiness with rising crime and with the migrant crisis in the urban-suburban New York district (encompassing parts of Queens and Nassau County) would be her ace in the hole
Crime
Is
Decreasing
Fucking
Media
Assholes
by Anonymous | reply 187 | February 14, 2024 2:40 PM
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You know why suburbanites believe this ācrime is on the riseā nonsense? Ring camera videos, delivery drivers, workmen. Every single day the Next Door app has a video of someone āsuspicious.ā Yes, sometimes itās actual thieves in the night who try opening car doors. Either they donāt open the door because itās locked or they open the door and rummage around but donāt steal the car.
Last week a woman posted a very clear photo of a black man on her property who looked in her windows ā¦in daylight. Turns out the guy was a house painter. There are several streets by the same/similar name in her area and the guy was looking in windows to see if his crew was inside. Several times Iāve seen videos of black delivery drivers as āsuspicious men in vehicles.ā
Another poster showed a cardboard six pack holder with 2 empty beer bottles in it that was put in a box on his property. The guy goes on an absolute tirade about immigrants, though it was probably teenagers. Another guy joins him in this tirade. Neither one could spell, use proper grammar or punctuation. It was pretty funny to see these locals twisting themselves into a fury about foreigners when they couldnāt write a proper sentence in English.
Another thing is the theft of catalytic converters. Yes there are thieves stealing catalytic converters out of driveways at night. There are 8 million people in this area. One or two guys stealing catalytic converters in different neighborhoods every night isnāt a crime wave, We had 2 bikes stolen from my front yard in 1970s - one was on the front porch in braid daylight while I was steps from the front door. That was pretty bold. But nobody freaked out.
Crime is down but doorbell cameras are making people think the night is crawling with hooded murderers.
by Anonymous | reply 188 | February 14, 2024 3:10 PM
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R179, the Siena poll (MOE 4.2%) had Suozzi at 46% in the Nassau portion of the district. He's currently at 53% there. So he is indeed outperforming that poll in Nassau (as well as in the Queens portion). I'm not finding crosstabs for the February Emerson poll.
by Anonymous | reply 189 | February 14, 2024 3:20 PM
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Your analysis of that poll appears erroneous ā that 46% you quote comes out of a total of 92% not 100%. The poll had 8% undecided/other overall. Clearly there were no undecided in the actual election. You canāt compare actual %s but only the relative %s. He hit the number in Nassau and overperformed in Queens. A simple Google search of āwhere did Suozzi overperformā might help.
by Anonymous | reply 190 | February 14, 2024 3:49 PM
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R188 you might be right and Iām down in NY-04, but I donāt get the sense that Lawn Guylanders think crime is out of control on Lawn Guyland. Itās more about fear of becoming like NYC, based on what the Post is saying NYC is like.
by Anonymous | reply 191 | February 14, 2024 4:25 PM
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Nassau County will look back on my tenure in office as a golden era. I worked day and night in Congress to ensure they had food on their plates and assault rifles on their nightstands. Those ungrateful bitches never had it so good!!
by Anonymous | reply 192 | February 14, 2024 4:27 PM
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We haven't been able to trust polls since Hillary ran. Some of the polls today are owned by the Repubs who lie. None of it can be trusted.
Everyone lies now, including the media. So we have to just do what we can and ignore the polls.
by Anonymous | reply 193 | February 14, 2024 5:15 PM
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Part of the problem is that the media has been treating all polls as equally valid and giving credence to polls that are slanted or biased. Their reporting on polls becomes part of the narrative and can give rise to public perceptions. Yes, Joe is 81 years old. But this notion that he is ātoo oldā has been fed by the constant media barrage talking about how old he is. So it is no surprise when the polls reflect this.
Sure, Biden hasnāt done himself any favors with his verbal mixups and the occasional slip and fall. But tRump is 77 years and has himself made hundreds of missteps and misstatements. For Joe, those errors are āserious concerns about his age.ā For Cheatolini, theyāre shrugged off as ātRump being tRump.ā Two candidates. Two very different standards. Like itās 2016 all over again.
by Anonymous | reply 194 | February 14, 2024 6:09 PM
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Clinton had soft support included in her numbers that didn't come through for her in the end, rather than being "wrong" as such.
by Anonymous | reply 195 | February 14, 2024 6:11 PM
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Youāre moving the goalposts, R168. The initial claim wasnāt about oneās personal safety, as if this was some debate about crime, but about the world being at ārelative peace.ā Weāre about to enter the third year of the first ground war in Europe in 80 years & then we have the war in Gaza. Pretty head scratching to make the case, then, that the world is at ārelative peace.ā
by Anonymous | reply 196 | February 14, 2024 6:20 PM
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R194 I think we'd do well to stop "refuting" the polls that say voters are concerned about Biden's age. Since 2019 polls have documented concern. That's one reason why Biden kinda-sorta suggested he'd be a "one term President".... in the past year or so pretty much any poll has 80% suggesting Americans are concerned about his age. This not an outlier or "within the margin of error" stuff.
So, he's old. You watch him walk (arthritis) and hear him talk (fragile voice, halting, misspeaking) and even supporters can't deny it. Does this mean he shouldn't be president? Fuck no. Can he still do the job? Fuck yes. Is he better choice for the country than the other guy? Duh.
He just needs to get out there, acknowledge what people are seeing and saying, not be defensive, but show how he is capable of doing the job.
by Anonymous | reply 197 | February 14, 2024 6:39 PM
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It's like he's lost his sh it ... or something?
by Anonymous | reply 199 | February 14, 2024 6:45 PM
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[quote][R194] I think we'd do well to stop "refuting" the polls that say voters are concerned about Biden's age
Nobody is refuting those polls, r198. There should be some concern for *anybody* that age. There's a vast difference between concern and right wing trolling.
by Anonymous | reply 200 | February 14, 2024 6:48 PM
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The media is so shallow and focused on the way Biden says something. Yes, he is fucking old--we get it. But they completely gloss over the content of what he is saying. If they did listen, they'd see that he's sharp as a tack and totally coherent.
Likewise they do the same with Trump--focusing on his attitude and ranting, but they don't listen to the content of what he's saying. He makes no sense, like saying windmills give people cancer or wishing he was taking a day off on Saturday afternoon (while he's speaking on a Friday evening). And Trump is totally hopped up on Adderall or cocaine--SNIFF!!!
by Anonymous | reply 201 | February 14, 2024 7:09 PM
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"Two candidates. Two very different standards."
You said a mouthful.
If any Democrat, especially a black one like Obama, had pulled their own version of 01/06/21, they and their entire families would have been tried, convicted, killed and buried in a mass, unmarked grave in the middle of nowhere by the Republicans, and that would have happened before Easter of 2021.
You're damn right there are two very different standards at work here.
by Anonymous | reply 202 | February 14, 2024 7:12 PM
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[quote]I think we'd do well to stop "refuting" the polls that say voters are concerned about Biden's age. Since 2019 polls have documented concern.
I remember it being a rallying cry around here until the momentum swung behind him during the primaries.
[quote]So, he's old. You watch him walk (arthritis) and hear him talk (fragile voice, halting, misspeaking) and even supporters can't deny it. Does this mean he shouldn't be president? Fuck no. Can he still do the job? Fuck yes. Is he better choice for the country than the other guy? Duh.
Maybe he should admit that. Maybe he should give that acknowledgement and argument and take the temperature down. Acknowledge what everybody sees. You can turn every talking point on the age issue against Trump. So long as he doesn't do that shouting thing he does. He sounds like testy grandpa who doesn't want to give up the keys. This is an issue. They need a strategy.
by Anonymous | reply 203 | February 14, 2024 7:18 PM
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[quote]Nobody is refuting those polls, [R198]. There should be some concern for *anybody* that age. There's a vast difference between concern and right wing trolling.
Could you define the vast difference because it reads on. here like any time someone raises the age issue they're accused of right wing trolling. So please help me discern.
by Anonymous | reply 204 | February 14, 2024 7:19 PM
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I'm voting for Kitara Ravache. Accept no substitutes!
by Anonymous | reply 205 | February 14, 2024 7:27 PM
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R201 My point is, we need to stop blaming "the media" and "polls".... Americans see what's in front of their eyes. Biden will need to perform in the ways R203 suggest. Talk about it, acknowledge it, don't be the angry defensive old man that denies it and blames "the media"... He's old. There are signs of his age. Accept it and talk about the future, about what he wants to do, in comparison to what would happen if his opponent were elected.
by Anonymous | reply 206 | February 14, 2024 7:29 PM
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R206 I'm just constantly disappointed over the media because they are smart enough to know better. These are in many cases Ivy League educated people, and they think their role is to just sit there and be stenographers and transcribe whatever is being said with no critical thinking. If they want to just be shallow and surface, maybe they should go get jobs at Entertainment Tonight.
And the access journalism thing--so what if they challenge Ted Cruz or Steve Scalise on their lies and they never come back for an interview. At some point you have to do your job.
by Anonymous | reply 207 | February 14, 2024 7:40 PM
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His margin of victory over the poll prediction probably had a lot to do with the horrendous performance she exhibited at the debate. anyone with half a brain could see she was an imbecile, but that's who the Repubs are running these days.
by Anonymous | reply 208 | February 14, 2024 8:15 PM
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[quote]don't be the angry defensive old man that denies it and blames "the media".
Where has he been that, r206?
by Anonymous | reply 209 | February 14, 2024 8:23 PM
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What does it say about Republicans that the only candidates they can come up with are frauds and scammers like Mazi and Kitara?
by Anonymous | reply 210 | February 14, 2024 8:24 PM
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Mazi is actually a registered Democrat who votes Republican and ran as a Republican. They got it backwards: in California the Republicans run stealth candidates as Democrats who then leach votes away from the real Democrats.
by Anonymous | reply 211 | February 14, 2024 8:34 PM
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[quote] R194 I think we'd do well to stop "refuting" the polls that say voters are concerned about Biden's age. Since 2019 polls have documented concern.
I can assure you that I was not attempting to ārefuteā the polls about Bidenās age, but there is a reason why people are hyper-focused on it and itās not just because heās old, which we all know. Itās because thatās all the media seems to talk about ā and Iām not referring to Faux News. The NY Times has been leading the way mentioning his age multiple times a day. Itās a valid concern, yes absolutely, but it canāt be the sole focus of Biden coverage. It just canāt.
The man has an extremely impressive list of accomplishments that never seem to be raised. Everything is about the fact that the guy is old, somewhat frail, and misspeaks from time to time. And much of that was painfully obvious from that hastily called press conference last Thursday night, which seemed like it was a big mistake. But it is equally clear that the media obsession is driving the narrative. Itās not his age alone, but the fact that it is the focus of so much media attention.
So, yes, we can āblameā them for the distorted coverage and try to get them to focus on other critical aspects of his governance. So, yes, acknowledge the age issue and press forward about the differences between Biden and his extremely unworthy opponent.
by Anonymous | reply 212 | February 14, 2024 8:59 PM
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The media wants this election close because it makes them money. Theyāll down Biden, one of the most successful presidents of all time, and makes voters concerned with their relentless narrative shaping.
Biden will win handily.
The NY03 election is a bad sign for Republicans. The border is not going to be an issue they can run on now that they spectacularly fucked it up. They are incompetent beyond belief. With Trump saying Russia can do whatever they want to EU, that will absolutely move Indies and soft Rs to Democrats in larger numbers than we can accurately predict. This will lead to Democrats keeping the presidency, Senate, and regaining the House by a large margin.
by Anonymous | reply 213 | February 14, 2024 9:31 PM
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Trump blamed the trailblazing Ethiopian Israeli immigrantās loss on her failure to come out strongly enough in favor of him during the campaign against Democrat Tom Suozzi.
āThis very foolish woman, Mazi Melesa Pilip, ā¦didnāt endorse me and tried to āstraddle the fence,ā when she would have easily WON,ā Trump wrote on his social media site.
The former president asserted that his MAGA supporters did not turn out to vote because he did not endorse Pilip in the race.
āMAGA, which is most of the Republican Party, stayed home. And it always will, unless it is treated with the respect it deserves,ā Trump added. āI stayed out of the race (because) I want to be loved!ā
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 214 | February 14, 2024 9:42 PM
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The only thing I sort of like about her is that she didn't publicly blow Fuckface von Clownstick during the campaign.
by Anonymous | reply 215 | February 14, 2024 9:45 PM
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[quote]āMAGA, which is most of the Republican Party, stayed home. And it always will, unless it is treated with the respect it deserves,ā
Sorry, Donald, if they stay home the MAGAts will get all the respect they deserve for losing the Republicans election after election.
by Anonymous | reply 217 | February 14, 2024 10:05 PM
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What it says, R210, is that reasonable republicans know they have no place in the Trump party.
by Anonymous | reply 219 | February 14, 2024 11:57 PM
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We once had a president who was old, senile and mentally incapacitated WHILE IN OFFICE. Yet he's been held up as a paragon of presidential perfection for the past 40 years. Joe Biden is nowhere close to that doddering fool.
by Anonymous | reply 220 | February 15, 2024 12:24 AM
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Pukes are meddling in the Democratic party and it's insult to injury after decades of their grift.
by Anonymous | reply 221 | February 15, 2024 12:34 AM
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Kitty Kelley knows how to gossip. She gossips so well, I was shocked to find out everything she spoke about during this interview has been verified as truthful much later.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 222 | February 15, 2024 12:43 AM
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Reagan testified with some nonsense on the Iran Contra scandal that he didn't remember what he was doing but in his heart he knew it was the right thing to do. He was the last cult-like figure in the Republican Party before Dump. Dump is 10 million times worse with speaking nonsensical word salad than Reagan ever was.
by Anonymous | reply 223 | February 15, 2024 12:49 AM
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That is what I mean. Iran Contra was fourth years ago, they have been holding this country hostage for decades with their grift.
Speaking of hostages. It is now known hostages were released after the inauguration to make RR look good.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 224 | February 15, 2024 12:56 AM
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R213 Your post is one of the most sensible on this thread.
by Anonymous | reply 225 | February 15, 2024 1:35 AM
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Republicans are counting on agribusiness and oil companies controlled by their people to strangle the economy. THat's not how it works.
by Anonymous | reply 226 | February 15, 2024 3:23 AM
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Tom Suozzi got me hot and wet during his acceptance speech with that New York accent. Heās a handsome devil of a daddy and heās on the side of the good guys. Whatās not to love, and who wouldnāt want to trade places with his wife in bed tonight?
by Anonymous | reply 227 | February 15, 2024 5:27 AM
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Btw, did anyone here ever hear Mazi Pilip speak? Jesus Christ, that accent! One of the most annnoyimg accents on earth. Even more annoying than a typical Lawn Guyland accent.
by Anonymous | reply 228 | February 17, 2024 10:44 PM
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Thatās why the GQP didnāt want her to campaign. She alienated more voters than she brought in.
by Anonymous | reply 229 | February 18, 2024 2:33 AM
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