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ABC News obtains Trump's internal polling data showing him losing to Biden

June 14, 2019

Data from President Donald Trump's first internal reelection campaign poll conducted in March, obtained exclusively by ABC News, showed him losing a matchup by wide margins to former Vice President Joe Biden in key battleground states.

Trump has repeatedly denied that such data exists.

The polling data, revealed for the first time by ABC News, showed a double-digit lead for Biden in Pennsylvania 55-39 and Wisconsin 51-41 and had Biden leading by seven points in Florida. In Texas, a Republican stronghold, the numbers showed the president only leading by two points.

ABC News did not obtain the poll’s early matchups against other candidates.

The New York Times was first to report the existence of the internal polls.

When presented by ABC News with these numbers, the Trump campaign confirmed the data saying in a statement that the numbers were old and that they have seen huge swings in Trump’s favor.

“These leaked numbers are ancient, in campaign terms, from months-old polling that began in March before two major events had occurred: the release of the summary of the Mueller report exonerating the President, and the beginning of the Democrat candidates defining themselves with their far-left policy message,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale told ABC News in a statement. “Since then, we have seen huge swings in the President’s favor across the 17 states we have polled, based on the policies now espoused by the Democrats. For example, the plan to provide free health care to illegal immigrants results in an 18-point swing toward President Trump.”

Attorney General Bill Barr’s summary of special counsel Robert Mueller investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election was released on March 24. While the Trump campaign’s full poll, which canvassed 17 states, was already in the field, it was well underway for four additional days after the release of Barr’s letter to the public.

The poll was conducted from March 15 through March 28.

The Trump campaign did not provide the results of the full 17 state poll, matchups against other candidates nor any updated polling figures.

[Full article at link]:

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by Anonymousreply 25June 17, 2019 12:04 AM

Actually he claimed his data had him winning BIG everywhere.

by Anonymousreply 1June 14, 2019 11:33 PM

Remember how all the polls showed Shrillary beating Trump? Don't get placated by what you see now. We are well over a year before the election.

by Anonymousreply 2June 14, 2019 11:59 PM

Remember all of the assholes who referred to our candidate as "Shrillery?"

by Anonymousreply 3June 15, 2019 12:16 AM

R2, the National polls correctly predicted that Hillary would beat Trump in the popular vote by 2-3 points.

Where the polling fell down was in some of the Midwestern states.

by Anonymousreply 4June 15, 2019 12:58 AM

And there was a new poll yesterday that showed Biden beating him in Michigan. That completes the trifecta—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—that puts Joe over 270 electoral votes. The American people want a President again and none of these candidates look more presidential than Joe Biden.

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by Anonymousreply 5June 15, 2019 1:10 AM

Fine, but whomever the Dem candidate is must beat Trump in PA, WI, MI and possibly OH. Otherwise it doesn't matter. Fucking deplorables.

by Anonymousreply 6June 15, 2019 1:30 AM

R5, that looks like a good Michigan poll for Biden because EPIC-MRA often leans Republican.

by Anonymousreply 7June 15, 2019 1:32 AM

[quote] whomever the Dem candidate is

WHO

by Anonymousreply 8June 15, 2019 1:34 AM

Don't worry. The Dems will destroy Biden's chances and will nominate a socialist SJW lover.

by Anonymousreply 9June 15, 2019 2:07 AM

Trump's internal polling just before the 2016 also showed him losing to Clinton.

[R6], what about the deplorables in the South Bronx, Newark, Camden, Deetroit, etc?

by Anonymousreply 10June 15, 2019 2:13 AM

[QUOTE]Trump's internal polling just before the 2016 also showed him losing to Clinton.

But not by this much.

by Anonymousreply 11June 16, 2019 9:31 PM

he's not losing

we're losing

by Anonymousreply 12June 16, 2019 9:32 PM

I wish these mainstream news people would stop pushing Biden on us.

by Anonymousreply 13June 16, 2019 9:36 PM

Nobody is either winning or losing at this point, r12. The election is still over a year away.

by Anonymousreply 14June 16, 2019 9:37 PM

[QUOTE]I wish these mainstream news people would stop pushing Biden on us.

Give me a break. The mainstream media has been trashing Biden the whole time. Nevertheless he persisted because of the response from Democratic voters who don’t care what the Huffington Post and New York Times have to say about anything. Their preferred candidate is obviously Liz Warren, not Joe Biden.

by Anonymousreply 15June 16, 2019 9:46 PM

The important thing is that everyone hates the grifter asshole in the White House.

Focus, people.

by Anonymousreply 16June 16, 2019 9:57 PM

R2, misogynist pig that he is, makes a good point. We're 1.5 years from the next election. Polls are not reliable at this point. Frankly, you could predict the same thing from reading a newspaper right now, but a lot could happen in the next year. How about demanding that ABC provide real news on the election?

by Anonymousreply 17June 16, 2019 9:59 PM

R15, Their perferred candidate is someone who wants a wealth tax?

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by Anonymousreply 18June 16, 2019 10:11 PM

We are far away from the election, however, these polls are freaking trump out. His twitter feed is nuts and I love his turmoil.

by Anonymousreply 19June 16, 2019 10:17 PM

I don’t believe this stuff. Trump & the GOP are well known for leaking things they want people to believe. Besides, all polls showed Hillary trouncing any random republican. Those pollsters knew nothing about the micro targeting of propaganda based on data gleaned from Facebook. Nor did they know a cabal of rightwing FBI agent’s led by Giuliani were going to blackmail the head of the FBI into throwing the election. I’m sure there’s something in the 2020 election that nobody knows about yet.

Other countries have rules to prevent their elections from being entertaining horse race fodder. Campaigns can’t dominate the news for 2 years. We need to put campaign limits on the press. Make the campaigns for president 6 months long, the campaigns for senate at 4 months and congress for 3 months. It would prevent the annoying spectacle of 20 greedy egotists who know they have no chance from getting free publicity & a spot in the administration.

by Anonymousreply 20June 16, 2019 10:21 PM

Interesting development today:

[quote]Trump Campaign to Purge Pollsters After Leak of Dismal Results

June 16, 2019

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s campaign has decided to purge some of its pollsters after a leak of dismal internal polls for the president that he denied existed.

Just two days before the president is set to kick off his bid for re-election, a top adviser said on Sunday that the campaign was cutting ties with three of its five pollsters to prevent further disclosure of survey data.

The polling showed Mr. Trump behind former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in several key battleground states, including by double digits in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The results were confirmed to The New York Times by advisers to Mr. Trump, but when they became public, he called them “fake polls.”

For days, aides to Mr. Trump have tried to figure out whom to point the finger at over the leak of the data, which jolted and infuriated the president. But in continuing to discuss it, aides violated a long-held unofficial rule of campaigns not to comment publicly on internal polling, even if the numbers leak.

The resulting furor led to an effort by the campaign manager, Brad Parscale, to tighten control. By removing several pollsters, the campaign hopes to shrink the circle of outside operatives who have access to information that could leak, according to the presidential adviser, who was not authorized to speak publicly.

The rupture of the team came even as the president and his advisers were preparing for a large and elaborate rally in Orlando, Fla., on Tuesday night to formally open his campaign for a second term. Mr. Trump was hoping for a show of strength as Democrats had drawn increasing attention before their first debates on June 26 and 27.

The internal poll numbers, while not predictive, painted a bleak picture of the current state of the race for Mr. Trump, at least against Mr. Biden, when they were taken in March. They showed a number of critical states at risk — not just Florida and the Midwestern states, but even some longtime Republican bastions like Georgia. A Democratic state that Mr. Trump’s aides have insisted they want to put in play, Minnesota, appeared out of reach for the president.

The polling was reported on by The Times nearly two months ago without citing specific numbers. Last week, The Times reported that Mr. Trump had told aides to deny that such polls existed and to say that other data in the survey showed him doing well.

Some aides to the president appeared to be using the episode to undermine one of his closest advisers, Kellyanne Conway, who was Mr. Trump’s final campaign manager in 2016 and is now his White House counselor. Ms. Conway’s relationship with Mr. Trump, and the praise he has given her for his 2016 victory, have long stirred envy among other advisers to the president. Her former firm, the Polling Company, was one of the ones to be ousted. Ms. Conway no longer has any formal ties to the company, which was sold in 2017 to CRC Public Relations, a well-known conservative advocacy firm.

In addition to Ms. Conway’s former firm, the Trump adviser said the campaign would cut ties with Adam Geller, a pollster for former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Michael Baselice, a pollster for former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, both late additions to Mr. Trump’s campaign in 2016.

[Full details at NYT link]:

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by Anonymousreply 21June 16, 2019 11:03 PM

Don't worry everyone... on behalf of GMA and ABC News, I'll paint a favorable picture of Mr. President for you all to see what a wonderful man he is.

by Anonymousreply 22June 16, 2019 11:07 PM

With new details from NBC, things are even bleaker, based on their own polling. We have a few more details now:

[quote]In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan — three states where Trump edged Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by narrow margins that proved decisive in his victory — Trump trails Biden by double-digits. In three of those states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida — Biden’s leads sit outside the poll’s margin of error.

[quote]Trump is also behind the former vice president in Iowa by 7 points, in North Carolina by 8 points, in Virginia by 17 points, in Ohio by 1 point, in Georgia by 6 points, in Minnesota by 14 points, and in Maine by 15 points.

[quote]In Texas, where a Democratic presidential nominee hasn’t won since President Jimmy Carter in 1976, Trump leads by just 2 points.

And all they can do is deny and fire people, something that does not bode well for the future. Yes, officially, some people will be fired on suspicion of leaking but what do you think the next pollster will say when the news is equally bleak?

Insert standard disclaimer about polls taken this early, etc.

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by Anonymousreply 23June 16, 2019 11:50 PM

The interesting thing, R22, is that ABC has not been all that friendly to Democrats these past several years. The interview with Stephanopoulos, though, based on the snippets released thus far, do not do Trump any favors. With the added data that the military's cyber security team has been withholding info from Trump for fear he would leak it or shut down the operation, this has been one absolutely miserable week for Trump.

Here's to a lot more of those in the months head.

by Anonymousreply 24June 16, 2019 11:53 PM

Lots of uninformed comments in this thread, including but not limited to “ABC will paint Trump in a favorable light” (have you seen ANY clips from the show yet? It ain’t good for Trump at all), “the mainstream media has been forcing Biden on us” (no, they really haven’t — they’re reporting his lead because he is leading, and he’s leading on name recognition only at this point), Trump/the GOP leaked these bad polls to lull us (no they didn’t, Trump fired his pollsters over this leak, and almost all the polls show the same data), and “whomever” used as a subject pronoun.

by Anonymousreply 25June 17, 2019 12:04 AM
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