Democrats are taking over the Senate in 2020 if all the latest polls are counted

You know it's bad when Republicans are embarrassing themselves on the pages of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.

Is this why all the right wing trolls are ramping up and creating new accounts on all sites I visit?

Let's hope. Iowa, Maine, North Carolina. None of these pick ups are sure thing. We need to work to make sure it happens.

We need a minimum of 5 pickups to get to 51 seats and avoid a tie in the Senate, because we’re almost certainly losing that seat in Alabama. I hope it’s a bloodbath and we pick up at least 8 seats. I hate the idea that Joe Manchin or someone like that will have veto power over anything Biden wants to do.

God, I hope this is true, we all need to vote and not get complacent.

Our hopes and wishes to God's ears.

If the Senate is in Dem control, any subsequent impeachment, if a-hole reelected, WILL have documents and witnesses...

If we pull off a 50/50 split with Biden in the White House that is still a cause for huge celebration r5.

There is a huge difference that and 51 R with McConnell in control. If McConnell still controls the Senate the Biden administration is not going to be able to get anything done.

Ignore everything and VOTE ANYWAY!

Ignore the polls and VOTE ANYWAY.

Ignore the pundits and VOTE ANYWAY!

Do it for John Lewis and VOTE ANYWAY!

What’s sad is that even if Democrats win everything, they’ll still bend over backwards to please republicans in the name of “bipartisanship.”

Trump is claiming he may not accept election results too.

R10, yes we need to repeat everyday and everywhere!

R12, then we in the DC area will storm the White House and drag him out of his bunker. Then he'll get Mussolini-ed.

Trump can say he won't accept he results all he wants...he doesn't have the support if the military. They tolerate him at the moment because of his title. Once he loses that title they won't take orders from him and it will be hard to be a dictator without. Military.

I hope Tennessee goes blue in the Senate elections.The current senator is a vile woman.

And Senate republicans are in a catch 22 situation. If they distance themselves from Trump, the Trumpublicans will turn on them. If they embrace him too much, they risk alienating swing voters.

If they embrace him too much, they risk alienating swing voters.

I think they've already done that; plus, it was all well & fine for them to ignore the virus when it only impacted the blue states, but how that it's impacted AZ, TX & NC - and Cheetolini is blabbering on about reducing or just flat out halting testing - they are in a *very* tight spot. This is what will ultimately bring things to a head with Cheetolini - when the realize he's going down & taking them with him. At that point, they'll revolt. I think Rupert/WSJ already sees the writing on the wall & is starting to make Dump solely the problem that ails the country, rather than all his enablers

People are going to be able to go vote? I don’t think so.

Good, r17.

It's high-time Republicans were CAUGHT.

The race for the Senate will be close.

Right now Democrats are maintaining consistent leads in Colorado and Arizona, which probably remain the 2 biggest pickup opportunities.

After CO & AZ, it's hard to know which is the next best pickup opportunity. The race in Maine between Sara Gideon and Susan Collins will probably go down to the wire in November, as will the Senate races in Iowa and Montana. The next best opportunity after CO & AZ may now be North Carolina, where Democratic nominee Cunninghham is consistently placing ahead of GOP Senator Tillis in the polling, so that is one to watch.

Dems also have a chance in Georgia with DL fave Jon Ossoff, but Perdue (R) probably remains the slight favorite.

r21 What about Tennessee, Ohio and Wyoming?

R22, there isn't a Senate race in Ohio. Tennessee & Wyoming are not really being seriously contested by the Democrats.

Kansas is more likely to be competitive than either TN or WY.

Why is VA barely Dem? Warner only leads by 1 pt.

the only upside to this miserable fucking year!

R24, where are you seeing that VA poll?

2014 was a bad Midterms for the Dems and Warner had an unexpectedly close call, winning be less than 1 point.

Warner is expected to win comfortably in 2020.

R26 the link in OPs post.

And which ones(s) are you donating to?

Without a supermajority (which will NEVER happen), there will still be a lot of things that won't change.

That is why major legislation needs to be passed by RECONCILIATION.

Lear the lessons they taught us.

Super majority in 2022.

It's important to be winning in July

There is no poll for VA r27, so I think they are using the 2014 result as the baseline.

Warner is expected to win, it is not being considered a competitive seat.

Virginia is now reliably blue. In a presidential year, it would be shocking to see it shift.

R32 has it right. There has not been any polling yet for the Virginia Senate race because it's expected to be an easy win for Warner this year.

The map is based on the 2014 results when Warner had a close shave in what was a bad year for Dems.

Then they shouldn’t use that map where it shows VA barely Dem. update the damn map.

Predicting a huge Republican led stimulus package giving every eligible taxpayer in America either another $1200 or doubling it.

[quote]Without a supermajority (which will NEVER happen), there will still be a lot of things that won't change.

I don't think the democrats have much choice this time out. There's things that need an immediate turn around. And Biden needs a cabinet strong enough to do it and bypass Republican obstruction. Enough with this supermajority crap.

[quote]That is why major legislation needs to be passed by RECONCILIATION.

AGAIN, The dems don't have a year or two to waste trying to make Republicans like them. You have a one term president. Shit needs to happen the first week he's in office.

The Turtle Senate will not do shit until the precious stock market crashes.

Colorado and Arizona remain the two closest thing to a sure thing. I would put the Kansas and N. Carolina races as next in line. Followed by Maine.

"I hate the idea that Joe Manchin or someone like that will have veto power over anything Biden wants to do."

Manchin will block everything Democrats try to accomplish, which is why we need more than a simple one seat majority.

We need Texas and Montana to come through...

We need at least 6 if we want to sideline Manchin.

People need to keep their feet on the ground. At first no one thought the Dems taking control of the Senate was realistic. Now it actually looks like it could happen. This is a big deal and amazing if it happens, have some perspective. It still is far from a sure thing we will be able to accomplish that.

[quote]Manchin will block everything Democrats try to accomplish, which is why we need more than a simple one seat majority.

That's why he needs to be primaried next election cycle. The guy helped get Kavanaugh in. That's reason enough for him to go and get a democrat in who can do the job.

It's freakin West Virginia. You do not want to primary Manchin, the fact that as a Dem he manages to win in such a red Trump-friendly state is amazing. Don't quit your day jobs people.

R44, take a seat, hon. Your political analysis is garbage. We absolutely must primary Joe Manchin and other DINOs, particularly if they supported Trump at all.

Especially a "democrat" who said they wouldn't vote for Sanders or Warren if they were the nominee.

He helped balance the Supreme Court in the Republicans favor. Case for removal.

And when you get a Republican in his seat instead you will be wishing for a DINO like Manchin.

But whatever, why engage in this argument when he isn't even up for election til 2024.

[quote]We need at least 6 if we want to sideline Manchin.

And what are you DOING to make that happen? What can people DO?

Right now?

"And when you get a Republican in his seat instead you will be wishing for a DINO like Manchin."

Manchin is effectively useless as a Democrat, so the seat might as well go to a Republican. It won't change a thing.

Bullshit. He voted for impeachment on both counts. No Republican did that. Even with his votes with Trump, it is better to have him there to have the majority than to let Mitch run the show.

Manchin will vote for the leadership to go to Charles Schumer, so that's all that's needed.

Not surprising that Manchin has supporters here. A lot of DLers are just older, rural, white conservatives who happen to be gay, and might not even have much connection to the larger population of gay folks, let alone actual progressive viewpoints, or meaningful interaction with anyone under 30.

Republicans vote but don't win based on votes. They win based on gerrymandering, voter suppression, election interference and other nefarious schemes to subvert the election process. We must remain vigilant and dedicated.

All this good news works in their favor, to the point where I believe dissemination of all the polling and dire predictions for Dump and his Republicans are part of their campaign. Democrats are nothing if not complacent.

[quote]Bullshit. He voted for impeachment on both counts. No Republican did that.

No Democrat in the Senate did either. Because the Senate DOES NOT IMPEACH.

Trump WAS impeached, and don't ever forget it.

Omg Manchin has voted against a lot of these crazy judges, too. He voted to remove the prez on both counts. We’d never get a progressive in WV. Manchin is infinity better then any republican we’d get out of that hellhole state. Get your head out of your ass!

R52, you realize that the reason that Obama could not advance his legislative agenda and the reason that Trump could has everything to do with applying the kind of purity test you suggest? Drawing in a coalition actually gets progressive things done. When your sassy, ageist take actually achieves something, let’s talk. Hint: you won’t be under 30.

R52's post is the first time in my many years on this board I've seen someone accuse the DL of having a rural bias. You're right, way too much focus on small town America here. God, could we finally get a thread about New York!

Miss Thang is in a tough race. Don't make her resort to more of her favorite Italian wine. She loves those drinky poos.

Miss Lindsey has dinner with Trump, Mnuchin, and Meadows. No wonder she was all giddy today.

Pry open your wallets and donate to ANY Senate candidate with a shot to bump off a Republic ASSHOLE!

AL-Sen Doug Jones (Incumbent in tough race)

AZ- Mark Kelly

CO-John Hickenlooper

GA-Jon Ossoff

IA-Theresa Greenfield

KY-Amy McGrath

ME-Sara Gideon

MT-Steve Bullock

NC-Cal Cunningham

SC-Jaime Harrison

TX-MJ Hegar

ANY of these candidates can win, many are slightly leading already, and ALL could use a few bucks, especially in KY and SC! What joy it would be to get rid of those twin terrors Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham!

I'd focus on donating to Cunningham, Gideon, Greenfield and Bullock personally.

Control of the Senate is going to come down to those races.

I agree with R61.

After AZ & CO, control of the Senate is likely going to hinge on NC, ME, IA & MT.

With the Democrats poised to win the House and the Presidency, I would hope that they don't pick up the Senate. Divided government just gets better results, because it holds the government's feet to the fire. Unified control lets them just pass a bunch of stupid pet projects.

R63 you’re a fucking lunatic. Fuck you. Republicans don’t deserve ANY branch of government.

Eat shit and die, R63.

The Republicans are doing everything they can to keep us from voting. It has already started by cutting voting locations in poor neighborhoods.

R63 Mitch McConnell retaining control of the Senate assures stalemate. Your comment could apply if it was 50+ years ago when partisanship was not so extreme, Congress was willing to work across party lines, and there was no Fox News.

R63 is an idiot. A divided Congress results in nothing but gridlock. This isn’t 1970.

R57 has no idea that he just proved my point. Unbelievable.

R63 sounds like he’s posting from the 1970s. A lot of very stale, outdated and disproven political analysis gets taken for fact around here. It’s like some folks haven’t paid attention to anything happening outside of their little bubble in decades.

NICE TRY, CLETUS @ r63.

The problem with the U.S. Congress is that it never gets anything done because of gridlock and "divided government."

Your know-nothing, do-nothing, easily bribed, shitfuck Republican senators are obstructions of justice who love to spend $30 trillion on socialism, racist symbol walls and unnecessary wars but refuse to pay for them.

The voters need to DRAIN THE SWAMP of swamp drainers from the Swamp States! They're all a bunch of crooks and accomplices these days and the GOP has been a fascist party since 2001.

LOCK 'EM UP!!!

All right wingers are evil and should be in their graves.

If you've got $$, donate to the Democrats in Montana, Alaska, South Carolina and Alabama. They need your money NOW.

Montana because your dollar will go very, very far and it's a tossup (the current Democratic governor is running for the seat).

Alabama, Alaska, South Carolina, and Alabama are all stretches....But we need people to bet money on a wave with their donations. NOW is when that money can be used to open field offices, hire coordinators, get out the vote professionals, registration drives, etc. The money that floods in in the final weeks gets wasted on advertising. Now is the time to let these campaigns build an infrastructure that can target their voters, do polling NOW to find out which issues move voters in which communities, etc.

[quote] Eat shit and die

Well I can’t beat that argument.

[quote] The problem with the U.S. Congress is that it never gets anything done because of gridlock and "divided government."

This is a feature, not a bug.

This r74 is an eager pawn of corporate predators who lives to make rich people richer at his own expense.

Cuck, indeed!

And Republicans like Trump just break the constitution and other laws whenever they feel like it to get whatever they want done, whether that's a racist and useless border wall, racist immigration policies, civil rights, deploying the military to override states' rights, gerrymandering congressional districts, purging voter rolls and census counts, using campaign funds to hush hookers, selling Qatar and Saudi military aid to privately enrich Trump and the Kushners, endorsing journalist assassinations, and laundering money for the Russian mob.

r74 / r63 doesn't give a fuck about constitutional "features." Rather, he's counting on decent people to yield to them while Trump and his cronies ignore them at will.

VOTE THE REPUBLICANS STRAIGHT DOWN THE SHITTER. r63 is a phony, lying fraud like his precious crooks McConnell and Trump.

R63, do you think that Mitch M. would wait until after January 21 to appoint a new supreme court justice if RBG should happen to die anytime soon? I think he won't wait. There is no honor amongst republicans. You need to rethink your opinion.

Also, the dems are not poised to win the house, they already own the house. Stay current.

I can't even see that troll you guys are arguing with, already had them on ignore.

[quote]do you think that Mitch M. would wait until after January 21 to appoint a new supreme court justice if RBG should happen to die anytime soon?

Senators don't "appoint" Supreme Court justices.

I stand corrected R79, I knew that, but....

Michael Moore is on MSNBC warning Democrats to not get smug and overconfident: Trump and Repubs can come back and win.

R81 we aren’t overconfident even if Biden is up by 99 points. Trust.

Cook Political Report:

Almost 100 Days Out, Democrats Are Favored to Take Back the Senate

July 23, 2020

I've donated money to the Democratic Senate candidates in:

Maine

Alabama

Colorado

Iowa

South Carolina

Kentucky

Montana

North Carolina

Arizona

At least if we don't flip the Senate I'll know it was not because I contributed nothing.

R84, I am right behind you.

I also have a few Democratic House candidates that get sugar.

Thanks r84

Please do not donate to Amy McGrath. She has plenty of money already and she isn’t going to win anyway. Your money goes much farther in Georgia, North Carolina, Montana and Iowa.

I can’t believe you all donate money to politicians. You’d be better off flushing money down the toilet.

[QUOTE] Your money goes much farther in Georgia, North Carolina, Montana and Iowa.

Oh, dear.

getting the senate is actually MUCH more important than getting rid of trump. Biden wins, and Mcconnel wins, biden will be a lame duck president the day he is inaugurated.

[quote] getting the senate is actually MUCH more important than getting rid of trump.

No, it isn’t. Not remotely.

Correct r91. You would definitely rather have Biden in the WH with a Republican Senate, than Trump in the WH with a Dem senate.

I always wonder how stupid people like R90 wander into threads with confident declarations like that. Capitalizing a word in your post, does not make it more true, hon.

Democrats, what the hell are we doing about our horrible new voter trump registration numbers? With only two months to get people to registered.

Late last month, the Democratic data firm TargetSmart found that while new voter registrations had plummeted amid the coronavirus pandemic, those who were registering in competitive states tended to be whiter, older and less Democratic than before. When he saw the numbers, Ben Wessel, executive director of NextGen America, said he "got nervous," and other Democratic-leaning groups felt the same. The report seemed to confirm what state elections officials and voter registration groups had been seeing in the field for weeks: Neither Democrats nor Republicans had been registering many voters during the pandemic. But Democrats were suffering disproportionately from the slowdown.

Last month in Iowa, where the race between Trump and Joe Biden is surprisingly close, Republicans nosed back ahead of Democrats in active registrations after ceding the lead to Democrats for the first time in years.

“In some states, before the pandemic, you were seeing a net edge for Democrats,” said Page Gardner, founder and president of the Voter Participation Center, which works to register young people, people of color and unmarried women.

Now, she said, “in some states … the advantage has shrunk substantially.”

For months last year and in early 2020, Democrats had been registering voters at a faster clip than Republicans in many competitive states that register by party, including Iowa, Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada. That was in part a function of the Democratic Party’s competitive presidential primary, and in part a reflection of animosity toward Trump. But the effect of the pandemic on voter registrations was severe. Department of moter vehicles closures, stay-at-home orders and restrictions on large gatherings limited opportunities for new registrations. In a report on the decline last month, the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research concluded that “the steep decline in new registrations may prove to be a sizable obstacle to what was set, pre-pandemic, to be a record election for turnout.”

[quote]You would definitely rather have Biden in the WH with a Republican Senate, than Trump in the WH with a Dem senate.

then you simply have no idea about american civics, like most stupid americans. the SENATE prevented the president from being convicted, think of that, think. just think. MCconnel is the reason that trump can do what he wants. with richard durbin as the head of the senate, then congress can pass what the people want, instead of mcconnell letting all legislation die sitting on his desk.

Uh, the filibuster means you need 60 votes to do anything in the Senate except confirm nominees

[quote]MCconnel is the reason that trump can do what he wants. with richard durbin as the head of the senate, then congress can pass what the people want, instead of mcconnell letting all legislation die sitting on his desk.

You do realize the President has the power to veto bills r95? Please don't go around telling other people they need a civics lesson.

No, if it was a Dem senate and a Republican in the WH they cannot just pass whatever they want into law.

you do realize that a veto can be overruled ?

There's Boris at R88!

With a two-thirds majority r98, which the Dems have zero chance of getting. You are moving goal posts, just learn when to give it a rest.

r100, because Senators have staggered six year terms, it will take 2022 to super-majority the Democrats.

Not impossible.

I hope that Biden announces his reelection campaign on 1-20-2021 and campaigns against Republicans for 4 years as did Trump.

Let's see what Biden can do with all the golf time...

[quote]because Senators have staggered six year terms, it will take 2022 to super-majority the Democrats. Not impossible.

Completely and totally impossible in any situation, but even less possible in a midterm election.

Amy McGrath is LEADING Mitch McConnell in Kentucky right now, but only by 1 percent. She absolutely CAN beat Moscow Mitch and the Democrats need every senator they can get.

r87 is lying, Deplorable trash and there's no rich Republican who's going to give away his entire, personal fortune to run.

HERE'S HOW YOU CAN DONATE TO THE FRONTRUNNER AMY MCGRATH AGAINST MOSCOW MITCH MCCONNELL:

r94 = Boris, "very concerned" about right-wing propaganda again and here to spread their talking points while pretending to be a Democrat.

There are enough progressives, independents, moderates and new voters on the rolls today and they're telling the pollsters they're voting Biden.

The Republicans dispensed with the 60-vote rule and so can the Democrats, r96.

I actually hope Biden governs and solves the COVID crisis, r101.

That's the change we need.

*MAINE*

New poll today from Public Policy Polling

Sara Gideon (D) 47%

Susan Collins (R) 42%

It's a Dem-leaning pollster, but it's still a good sign for Gideon.

r102, you need to preface your opinions as such.

It is not totally impossible. With the changes in campaigning that Trump has ushered in, we may see more Democrats elected midterm.

The 2018 Blue Wave and the 2020 Blue Tsunami may lead to a long term Blue High Tide. We need to permanently cripple the Republican party.

Democrats will need to adjust to continuous campaigning alongside the Trump Administration convictions.

[quote]I hope that Biden announces his reelection campaign on 1-20-2021 and campaigns against Republicans for 4 years as did Trump.

Really? I hope he picks a decent veep, survives one term to completion, and steps aside for the veep. Joe Biden is too damn old. I don't want him in office for nearly a decade. We need new leadership. Young people need someone who inspires them that they can relate to. Attitudes like yours are what got us Trump in the first place.

[quote]Attitudes like yours are what got us Trump in the first place.

Nope, misogyny did.

R110 Stfu. Attitudes like yours gave us him. Moscow Mitch sure is effective and he’s old. I can’t think of a pol would have had the success against the prez like Nancy has.

McSally down 12 percent in Arizona, with new polls putting Collins, Tillis, Ernst and Gardner all DOWN by nearly double digits.

[quote]"Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November," a Republican pollster told the Cook Political Report

Bye, bitches!

This is so much fun watching McCain Country turn Deep Blue with two Democratic Senators and Biden.

[quote]You would definitely rather have Biden in the WH with a Republican Senate, than Trump in the WH with a Dem senate.

The reality is that Biden and the best-positioned Dem Senate challengers track together.

If Biden wins, we can expect more Democrats in the Senate - likely bringing it at least to 50-50.

[quote]Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November

Vorking on it.

[quote]Holy hell. Republican Sen. David Perdue has been running a Facebook ad that *made Jon Ossoff's nose bigger*. Oh, and it just so happened to pair him alongside Chuck Schumer. The campaign has since taken it down - David Nir

**MAINE**

July 28, 2020

Colby College poll

Sara Gideon (D) leads Susan Collins (R) by 5 points.

[888 Likely Maine Voters, conducted July 18-24]

PT. anything over 4% nis great to me. Let's watch the trend.

God I hope Collins lose.

Not just because it helps our chances of taking the Senate, I also just want to see Collins go down. It serves her right.

Yeah we were looking to gain the senate in 2016 & they stole it.

[quote]PT. anything over 4% nis great to me. Let's watch the trend.

R120, the trend in Maine for Gideon seems to be tilting her way. It's still going to be a close race because Collins is a 23-year incumbent, but the polling is showing some positive signs for Gideon.

I'd like to see Gideon reach 8% by election day.

[quote]Democrats are taking over the Senate in 2020 if all the latest polls are counted

And the rethugs will bitch, moan, and whine about DEMOCRACY and unprecedented overreach of powers when the Dems do 1/100 of the crap the rethugs have done for the past 10 years.

Rethugs should never have gotten away with what they did when Scalia died and they prevented Obama from replacing him. That is probably the most egregious and longest lasting abuse of power.

The Pootie factor.

Here's a profile of the Democratic Governor leading the polls to flip a Republican incumbent straight down the shitter.

Bullock is doing a good job leading Montana's coronavirus response and he's very popular. So this looks to be another amazing pickup in a DEEP red state.

Trump's Gestapo tactics on the West Coast, the Eggstein revelations of Katie Johnson and the Russian bounties to kill U.S. soldiers approved by Trump are really helping to tank these twats.

If only we could have shown the people in 2015?

Anyone here from Kentucky or know people in Kentucky. If so, does it seem McConnell has a chance to be defeated?

What about Miss Lindsay? Anyone from his area, what is it...SC....Do you or people you know think he's on his way out.

I know it happily looks bad for Susan Collins.

God, we need a big win in the Senate as much or more than we need Biden to win.

People need to be watching Kansas, believe it or not. There hasn't been a Democratic senator since the 1930s, but, especially if Kris Kobach wins the primary next Tuesday, there really is a shot the Democrat could win. She is a doctor and has big financial backing from the wealthy Kansas City suburbs and Kobach is pretty hated. Kansans are a pragmatic bunch, even if they have been raised on Republicanism since childhood, but it's a long way from the rabid, racist flavor of Republicanism found in the South.

Southern Ohio here. Work in Kentucky. Several like minded co-workers live in Kentucky.

They hate turtle. Always have. One lives down the street from turtle's Fort Mitchell residence. She said there's a house on down the street that has a big red truck that sits out front with various Dump Trump signs on it.

It's the rural Bible beaters that elect that shitstain. Kentucky has one of the lowest voter turnout a in the country. Just lazy asses who don't bother to vote for whatever reason.

One co-worker has three daughters in their late teens)early twenties who have now decided to get involved in politics. They were phone banking for Andy Beshear last year and had planned to canvass for McGrath before covid hit.

I'm not sure what they are going to do now but I know that they all have given money to McGrath.

It's just laziness that keeps turtle and prick Paul where they are. People just too fucking lazy to vote.

NOrth Carolina

In NC, Thom Tillis running behind Trump, trailing challenger Cal Cunningham by 9 points

Tillis margin among White voters just half Trump margin — 9% of '16 Trump voters say they're backing Cunningham

Unsure voters (9%) lean GOP in presidential vote — race could def tighten

R131, who’s the challenger?

I’m from SC. I have never met anyone, Republican or Democrat, who like Lindsey which is why I’m confused he’s been in office so long. I think most people vote on party. I believe Jaime is trailing behind Lindsey by a very small margin. I hope and pray he can pull it off. He has a lot of support coming from all over the country

R135, Dr. Barbara Bollier is expected to become the Democratic nominee for the Kansas Senate race. She's a Kansas State Senator and she actually used to be a Republican but left the party a few years ago after disliking the direction it was taking. Her Dem opponent is Robert Tillman, formerly of the Kansas National Guard.

As R131 said, Democrats are hoping that the Republican nominee will be Kris Kobach because he is considered more beatable.

The Dem & Rep nominees will be chosen this Tuesday.

Maybe money being sent to Amy McGrath is better off going to the North Carolina, Maine, and Iowa.

Lindsay Graham looks like he is inside out.

No, Mitch McConnell is a crooked, greedy traitor to the United States and the biggest Republican star besides Hair Furor.

We need to take down Moscow Mitch and #LockHimUp!

We can donate to Amy McGrath AND Theresa Greenfield AND Cal Cunningham AND Sara Gideon AND Jaime Harrison.

For a host of reasons, Kentuckians are rejecting McGrath again. She is not a good candidate for Kentucky

At this point, it would be WAY more fun to see Lady G get defeated than the Turtle. I sort of like the thought of McConnell having to serve in the minority in the Senate with limited influence.

Amy McGrath is the butchest “straight” woman I’ve ever encountered.

The Dems aren't taking over anything.

r141 = partisan Deplorable and traitor to the United States.

We're not buying it, r142.

We can get rid of Graham AND McConnell and we should do everything in our power to send EACH and EVERY REPUBLICAN straight down the shitter.

They can go live in their beloved Russia, count their rubles and see how they love living in a "free" country.

It's going to be FUN FUN FUN to bump this thread for r144 on Election Night!

Wow, new polling has Jaime Harrison ONE point behind Lindsey.

Word out here in SC is that Lindsey had to cut back on helping some of the other Republican incumbents with their elections because he isn’t doing as well as he thought here in SC

Turtle up big in Kentucky.

Well, McGrath has been tied with McConnell in most polls for the last year.

And most Kentucky voters don't know that she stands for term limits yet, which converts most Kentucky voters to her side.

And McGrath is kicking McConnell's ass in fundraising!

Just wait until all the voters know she wants term limits for social-climbing traitors like Mitch McConnell!

In case you forgot what a scumbag Mitch McConnell is:

In case you didn't know Moscow Mitch lifted sanctions against Russia and allowed Russians the freedom to hack U.S. election systems in exchange for a Kentucky aluminum plant:

Term limits support doesn’t magically turn a rightwing electorate into Voting Democratic U

Too bad they don't seem to care in KY about Mitch's 28-day army career.

I don’t think that plant ever came to fruition.

Trump has nothing to do with the state run COngressional races for either house. Trump might contest the PResidential, but not the others. But please remember this:

To impeach a PResident, the Senate must have 67 votes. Two thirds majority. I'm not saying Trump will win, legally or not. I'm saying we need a firewall. We need as many Democrats elected to the Senate as possible. Just a simple majority won't do. So yes, bring it on. Lets get the damned vote out.

Democrats can’t even get 55 senators. 67 is fantasy

r151 not one decent pollster has polled in Kentucky. All of them are THIRD Tier pollsters.

Waiting for a decent eval of KY.

KY is going to be very difficult but not impossible. Amy needs to bring it.

[quote]To impeach a PResident, the Senate must have 67 votes.

STOP SAYING THIS. The Senate does not have the power to impeach.

Trump was impeached. By the House. Never forget.

r159, it will take two more congressional cycles to get to 67.

I hope that Biden learns a lesson from Trump and campaigns for the midterms from jump.

2010 should never happen again to Democrats.

The Republican Party needs to be ground into the dirt each and every day of the Biden Admin.

And we get to 67 Democratic Senators in 2024.

Wrong, r155.

Again, you’re totally ignorant of the issues but you shoot your mouth off, anyway. Why can’t any right winger win debates on DL? Putin needs smarter trolls.

[quote] But after voters are told that it is McGrath, not McConnell, who agrees with President Trump on term limiting Congress, she jumps out to a 15-point lead.

You live in a fantasy world r163.

DITCH MITCH

If the Dems don't win, we will all be interned.

r167 Change your last n to an r.

Interned then interred. Will that do?

Same sex marriage may be overturned within weeks.

A lot will depend on whether RBG survives. If, I say if, she is in a military hospital then she won't survive but a few hours after the visit from Barr.

UPDATE: A 16th QAnon-supporting congressional candidate has now secured a spot on the ballot in November. Daniel Wood of Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District has been declared the winner in his primary in his district by default.

Seven incumbents have now lost re-nomination this cycle: - Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.) - Steve King (R-Iowa) - Denver Riggleman (R-Va.) - Scott Tipton (R-Colo.) - Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) - Steve Watkins (R-Kans.) - Lacy Clay (D-Mo.)

R171, what do we think that’s pointing towards in November? Any ideas?

The electorate is still in a big change, new blood mood.

Look. The Republicans are good at this. They play a long game. Back in 1990, they were running far right religious candidates for school boards, city council seats, state legislature. Eventually we had to deal with the "Christian Right" in Congress. They know how to build. But now, they are running two tracks. They are supporting the Extreme Left and the Extreme Right. I see the fine hand of the Chaos Agent Vlad Putin orchestrating some of this, but it's something the Extreme Right, Neo Fascists are fully capable of doing. We need to push back hard.

Forgot to add: Look who still identifies as Republican. So it's not a surprise that Q Anon is gaining traction in electoral politics. Anyione who self identifies as Republican in this election cycles is, for the most part, evil. What is more worrisome is the Extreme Left and Bernie Bros attempting to hijack the Democratic party in similar fashion.

Not even Bernie Bros care about Bernie anymore, get with the times.

"What is more worrisome is the Extreme Left and Bernie Bros attempting to hijack the Democratic party in similar fashion.

Bernie is supporting Biden

[quote]Seven incumbents have now lost re-nomination this cycle: - Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.)

Yay!!!

Why is Justin Trudeau in a US Senate thread at r152?

Look. Right now the Extreme Left is trying to make gains in the Democratic PArty. That is a fact. They tried in 2018, and they're still trying. They have made some progress. Here is the Republican strategy in action. Pay attention. Bernie is personally supporting Biden, but the operation behind Bernie is not. It's party of a larger strategy to fuck up the Democratic party just like they Republicans got fucked up going too far Right. The way the Republicans look at it, (since they are cooperating with the Russians,) is, by promoting Democratic candidates that are far Left in the Primary, it helps their Republican opponent have a better shot at winning in t he general election. If the Extreme Left Democrat should win, they will be disruptive to the Pelosi agenda and help fracture the House's unity. nd honestly. WTF is Kasich doing speaking at the Democratic Convention with Bernie????Both of them are a pox on our political discourse. Kasich is a wolf in sheep's clothing. He's an underhanded Ronald Reagan worshipping POS.

All that matters is winning. The Republicans will do anything to win. The Democrats better do likewise.

ITA about that cunt, Kasich.

Fucking Tom Perez is a goddam moron for letting that prick set up his 2024 bid at OUR FUCKING CONVENTION!

Kasich is a talibangelical. Full stop. Reich wing prick who should be thrown into the dustbin of history and forgotten. Instead, the second dumbest motherfucker on the planet invites him to come and slap women, POC, LGBTQ people in the face.

Way to alienate your base supporters, Uncle Tom!

I wish I could get excited about this. Clearly Trump is going to engineer a phoney electoral victory through a combination of voter suppression & vote tampering, and Russian assistance. And there's nothing anyone can do to stop it. He has fully corrupted all the checks and balances that were supposed to prevent would-be authoritarians from seizing absolute power. In other words America is literally a fascist country now. They just decided to wear suits instead of brown shirts and uniforms so that they could sneak under most people's radar. And they have.

Of course I'm still voting anyway in case there's some slim chance that I'm wrong. And also because it's our moral obligation to do so.

R182, there are many more people who are like Kasich and moderate Democrats and independents than there are like you

R184, you must not have been paying attention. .this prick wants to jail women for having miscarriages or abortions. Like they do in El Salvador.

He wants gays to attend conversion therapy.

These views have NO PLACE WHATSOEVER at a Democratic convention. None.

Kasich is NOT "moderate" or "reasonable". He just looks that's way because he hasn't come out as a Nazi. Yet.

r180, there is no extreme left. The far right has gone off the cliff and regular left policies seem extreme by comparison now.

Public day care, single payer healthcare have been on the centrist table for decades.

You forget, Democrats went through the 70s.

If Democrats take over the White House, House, and Senate, then the first thing they should pass is voting, campaign and election reform laws so that we won't ever have to put up with this gerrymandering-Republicans-suppressing-the-vote-and-stealing-elections bullshit ever again! Wake up, Americans!

AND pass the Popular Vote Amendment.

No more electoral college crapification.

And sent it to the states for ratification.

r188

[QUOTE] [Kasich] wants gays to attend conversion therapy.

Of course he does. He’s a closet case.

If you want states to ratify a Constitutional amendment you'll need 37 states legislatures to do it. Do we have a Democratic majority in 37 states yet? At one point the Republicans had 31 states. How many do we have now?

*MAINE*

August 10, 2020

RMG Research poll today has Gideon +7

Sara Gideon (D) (48%)

Susan Collins (R) (41%)

[500 Registered Voters, Jul 27-Aug 2, 2020]

Not impressed with Tom Perez.

He isn’t, r179.

BORIS DEFLECTION FAIL

r193, you should be.

As soon as Bernie made rumblings that he should be made the nominee because he had the largest PLURALITY, Tom swung into action OVER A WEEKEND, got every other candidate to line up behind Biden and THEN Biden got the Black nod. Friday to Monday this race was decided by Tom Perez.

Tom Perez was the kingmaker.

It's his job.

R195 Source?

r182 Most likely Russian propaganda. I could break it down but readers can analyze it themselves. Or an idiot but Idiots don't hit so many talking points so quickly.

If you're reading about Tom Perez or the DNC, it's a 50%+ chance you're reading Russian propaganda (or Trump financed propaganda, since there's not much daylight between the two at this point). It's all specifically designed to turn off Democrats from voting. Ignore them or call them out when you see it. Don't let another country fuck with our political system.

The most recent polls in AZ, CO, IA(!), NC, and ME show Dems ahead. IA shocks me. Unless something shocking happens, it looks like a clean sweep. I hate to say it, but it took Trump's victory to destroy the Repuglicans.

Polls aren't VOTES, r199.

We need to get our collective asses to the polls/mailboxes and actually VOTE.

Make it a total wipe out to end all wipeouts!

r196 on Feb 22 Bernie first sent up a trial balloon about a PLURALITY only needed to secure the Dem nomination. He made it clear that he was going to take the fight to the Convention Rules Committee or float a resolution. On Friday the 28th, he reiterated his intent that he was serious about his plurality (just like Trump's 33%). Perez flew into action behind the scenes, phone calls and f2f visits with candidates and VOILA, on Monday, March 2nd Pete and Amy withdrew and threw their support to Joe. Friday to Monday, over one weekend Tom Perez changed the course of American history.

r195

Oh and the rest fell in line in a week. Then it was Joe with 66% of the delegates and Bernie with 33%.

Few people could have coordinated the Pete and Amy campaigns to withdraw.

Tom Perez did his job while few people were looking.

Conjecture about Perez. Berners and Russian trolls once again trying to say he was robbed.

It’s politics. If Bernie didn’t have support that’s life. Biden consolidated the moderate/ liberals. That’s how it’s done.

R199, don’t get excited about polls in August dude. Chill. And work to get people registered and out to vote

r204 is just trying to demoralize Democrats and undermine Amercians' faith in democracy and the government.

It's all too Boris, because she doth protest on every thread every time more good news for the Democrats comes out.

*MAINE*

August 11

Sara Gideon leads Susan Collins in BDN poll as Democrats enter 2020 cycle with edge

Gideon +8 (Registered Voters)

Gideon +5 (Likely Voters)

[Poll conducted Jul 28-Aug 9, 2020]

It would've been fun to have Sara Gideon in the Senate with this former senator.

[quote]Republicans are going STRAIGHT DOWN THE SHITTER in 2020.

Pics please.

r208 can find plenty of shitter-going pics from our 2018 threads. Too bad Muriel doesn't allow gifs anymore!

The open senate seat in Kansas just hopped on the Tossup list.

Barbara Bollier is within 2 percent of flushing her Republican opponent straight down the shitter!

So, to review, the Democrats need a net total of 4 pickups in the Senate for a Trump-proof majority. Biden is likely to win, so we may only need 3 pickups. But we want as many as we can get in an extremely important year and we're losing Doug Jones to Deplorable Alabama.

Here's how you can donate to Barbara Bollier:

Sara Gideon of Maine can defeat Kavanaugh-coddler Susan Collins. Here's where you can give:

Cunningham of North Carolina is barely leading his Deplorable:

Mark Kelly can flip McCain Country Arizona:

Theresa Greenfield needs your help to beat Joni Cunst in Iowa:

Steve Bullock has a good chance to flip deep-red Montana:

John Hickenlooper can flip one GOP bitch in the senate from Colorado:

Handsome Jon Ossoff needs your help in Georgia:

Jaime Harrison is running neck-and-neck with Lindsey Graham in South Carolina. He can finally flush the Senatrice straight down the shitter!

Amy McGrath is also in a dead heat with Moscow Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority leader and Chief Pusher of Evil in the U.S. Senate.

Flushing him straight down the shitter will send an important message to the Deplorables.

And the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is a general fund that will direct spending to candidates where the party thinks their best chances are:

Montana is only red for presidential elections. It’s pretty blue leaning for Senate and esp Gov.

Testor barely won re-election

4% is more than "barely," but yeah, Montana is a competitive state.

R222, how does that work? I guess the Democratic party in Montana is relatively conservative?

R225. Not necessarily. Dems are moderates so when they do progressive policies it isn’t seen as threatening and those policies are popular.

R223 Your point? They’ve had 16 years of Dem Govs, Tester has been in the Senate for 13 years. FL is always within a point for every election, Obama won it twice, Clinton once yet it’s considered a red state. Makes no sense.

Tester actually increased his margin of victory in 2018. It was the first time he got over 50% of the vote, and he did that despite Trump making 4 trips to Montana to try and defeat him.

r221, which is why NV Senator Cortez-Masto will be speaking at the Virtual.

The Female, Latina rainmaker for the Senate Dems.

Look for her to take Harry's old position during the Biden years.

Bye, Chuck.

PS, Catherine is brilliant.

I want Democratic leadership that impeach and / or prosecute current Republican senators and Trump for the crimes they're getting away with now.

Schumer seems like too much of a puss to do it, but I doubt any purple state senator would, either.

Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto is a former NV AG and prosecutor.

While the House impeaches, she would be superb supervising corruption investigation committees in the Senate.

She is the first Latina elected to the Senate and a poetic ending for a criminally corrupt Trump immigration policy.

Anyone who cares about our democracy should support #USPSProtests

Anyone who cares about our small businesses, neighbors who need prescription medications, our Veterans, or rural America, should support USPS Protests

Ben Franklin: The attack on the postal service is the red line. If they'll destroy the post office, which is critical infrastructure, they'll destroy anything.

CNN — White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Sunday that the US Postal Service will not dismantle any mail-sorting machines between now and Election Day.

"Sorting machines between now and Election Day will not be taken off line," Meadows told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."

Post Office Gate will backfire badly on Trump

Makes people VERY aware of when and how to vote by mail.

Will inspire others to wake up at 3 AM to stand in line to vote him out if necessary.

Fucking with the post office is banana republic territory

[quote] But his base won't care R235!!

We don't need his base. We need independents and the millions of Democrats who sat home and didn't vote last time out.

Courts are slow, Congress is on vacation, the Senate‘s complicit, the military‘s not gonna save us. WE are what will stop a wannabe dictator from murdering our republic. He’s attacking USPS to sabotage our election. It’s up to us. Time to protest! Are you in? #USPSProtests

That's good for scum like McConnell, r231.

But impeachment won't apply once Trump, Barr, Kushner, etc. are out of office. That's why Biden should appoint an F.B.I. task force to go after the criminal scum.

If we don't prosecute these crooks, they'll just do it again and Republicans will think they can break the law and do whatever they want again.

Trump was not prepared for the universal and rapid shift to Vote By Mail.

Putin had already seeded the necessary malware into the voting MACHINES in key states and counties over the past three years.

The shift to VBM had to be countered so targeted postal markets WHERE THE VOTING MACHINES would be cancelled still flipped results to Trump.

Delete the west coast Macguffins and areas that Trump's USPS Postmaster removed and slowed down mail IS WHERE THE BAD VOTING MACHINES ARE.

The SoSs of those states where the mail is being fucked need to pull a few machines and have their coding gone over by CrowdStrike. The firm the Russians/Trump hate.

Today Boris is trying to make Nazi cunt Nikki Haley into a gay icon.

#EpicFail

*NORTH CAROLINA*

East Carolina University poll

Cal Cunningham (D) 44%

Thom Tillis (R) 40%

Close in NC

Republicans almost always overperform polls in NC. Republicans zealously vote and are loyal in NC. Democrats are very unfaithful and lethargic in turning out.

Yes, Natasha, you've been telling us all year that Democrats are too lazy to register to vote and that's going to save Orange Julius.

Sadly, North Carolina has had Democratic governors for decades. North Carolina voted for Obama, all their suburbs turned blue in 2018 and Biden has led Trump in almost all North Carolina polls for 2 years.

Your self delusions aren't going to save Trump or the Republican senate on Nov. 3.

YouGov (B rating from 538, ave. DEM bias 0.4%) just released another national poll on behalf of Yahoo News, taken Aug. 14-15, 1,529 adults. LVs: Biden-50% (+9%) Trump-41% RVs: Biden-49% (+11%) Trump-38%

Cook Political Report update on Miss Lindsey Graham:

South Carolina Senate Moves From Likely to Lean Republican

August 17, 2020

The Senatrice needs the vapors!

r246 She's got enough of 'em to package and sell.

Lady G's Bolt Vapors...

R71 - the Framers of the Constitution specifically built the government the way they did to slow it down.

So that it would take generations of consensus building to see massive social changes.

They understood from the beginning how to prevent a second civil war. And that way is making sure that nothing happens faster than the human mind can adjust.

*MAINE*

Public Policy Polling

Gideon (D) (49%)

Collins (R) (44%)

[Poll conducted Aug 13-14, 2020]

r249, and that thinking has let techno giant corporations rape America while *the human mind adjusts*.

pure bullshit

Lady G in trouble.

Flip the Senate

r249 How could they be trying to prevent a "second civil war" when the first one hadn't even happened yet?

r249, - the Framers of the Constitution specifically built the government the way they did to slow down anyone who wasn't a land-owning, white, male capitalist from having power.

So that it would take generations of atrocities to see the end of slavery.

They understood from the beginning they were hypocrites who needed a rigged system to keep slaves, poor whites and women away from votes and equal opportunities as long as they could before the inevitable civil war . And that way is making sure that nothing happens.

THERE. FIXED IT FOR YA, NATASHA.

And just because the Constitution works unjustly today or yesterday doesn't mean it has to forever. Your circular reasoning is naive and moronic. The Constitution also allows for reform and amendments so We the People can improve it as much as we want to, whenever we want to.

I know a lot more about the Constitution and U.S. history than you're briefed at the Russian troll farm and Thomas Jefferson said we need a revolution every 20 years.

So don't condescend to teach me a damn thing. The Electoral College should be abolished, just like we abolished slavery, and senators should only have political power that represents the number of people from their states.

*IOWA*

Public Policy Polling

Greenfield (D) 48%

Ernst (R) 45%

[Poll conducted Aug 13-14, 2020]

Yay! Joni can go love Chachi.

Greenfield needs a bigger lead.

R258 Of course but it’s nice to have a lead at all.

I will be happy to see McSally go soon.

We need to amend the constitution so this can never happen again.

[quote]Manchin will block everything Democrats try to accomplish, which is why we need more than a simple one seat majority.

Joe Manchin gets a lot of hate, but every vote where the Dems needed every Democrat to vote for prevail, he has voted with his caucus. Not once has any Democratically supported bill gone down because he withheld his vote. Trump hasn't won him over in any real way, regardless of him blowing smoke to WV voters from time to time. West Virginia is not Connecticut.

Pass a law that when a person files for a federal elected position , they VOLUNTARILY void all Non Disclosure Agreements.

Think of the criminal activity Trump has paid off in hush money. No President should EVER be allowed to do this again. No Senator either. I would also extend it to federal appointments.

I think that Biden's Congress should pass the Popular Vote Amendment getting rid of the Electoral College.

It may need another election cycle to get to the super-majority.

Might as well make PR and DC states and pocket those 4 Senate votes.

Doesn't matter what they bullshit polls say. They aren't worth the media air time they are given and everybody knows it.

Don't believe any poll and get complacent!

Please VOTE, VOTE, VOTE! It's the only way to be certain.

Yeah, we're going to vote.

McSally is awful

Let them eat nothing! I need campaign money- MagaMcSally ( R-Cuntsville).

Arizona Senator Martha McSally made an egregious request of her supporters by suggesting that they fast for a meal and donate the money to her campaign. CBS affiliate KPHO-TV obtained audio recording of a recent meeting where McSally said, “We’re doing our part to catch up, you know, to get our message out. But it takes resources, … So, anybody can give, I’m not ashamed to ask, to invest. If you can give one dollar, five dollars, if you can fast a meal and give what that would be.”

"Fast" BTW is a dog-whistle to evangelical christianists; fasting is a spiritual act they do, going without food while praying, to make their prayers "stronger" for the really important pleas.

The senate is seriously more important that president. A democratic senate can try and hang trump and pence. A republican senate can stump Biden and Harris

[quote] I think that Biden's Congress should pass the Popular Vote Amendment getting rid of the Electoral College.

It would never get through enough of the state legislatures. Why would small states vote to give up the EC? And yes, you would need some of them to vote for it.

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Morning Consult

Cunningham +8

Cunningham (D) 47%

Tillis (R) 39%

[Poll conducted Aug 14-23, 2020, 1,541 Likely Voters]

[quote]It would never get through enough of the state legislatures. Why would small states vote to give up the EC? And yes, you would need some of them to vote for it.

Some small states might be into popular vote. Vermont, Delaware, Rhode Island would probably be on board since their legislatures signed on to the compact.

With the great demographic shift to plurality white status, enough states will flip in time to popular vote.

Biden just has to get it started. In Congress all it takes is a simple majority.

^^^for DC Statehood.

*COLORADO*

Public Policy Polling

Hickenlooper +9

Hickenlooper (D) 51%

Gardner (R) 42%

Permanent one-party rule, here we come! And let’s get rid of the first amendment and the second amendment while we’re at it. In fact, the whole fucking bill of rights can go to Hell because it‘s all a bunch of crap written by white heterosexual gentile oppressors.

the senate is simply the VERY most important race now

r278 = Yet another Boris tantrum. So fun to watch these cunts melt down!

R278 - Clear your head. Go get laid. But if your as fug on the outside, as you obviously are on the inside, then snagging a trick may be futile.... If that’s the case, then take matters into your “own hands”.... more often.

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Change Research

Cunningham +10

Cunningham (D) 52%

Tillis (R) 42%

[Poll conducted Aug 21-23, 2020, 560 Likely Voters]

Americans have had enough of the evil lie that opposite points of view are to be tolerated in any way, shape or form. The GOP has been an albatross around this country’s neck since its very inception. Why shouldn’t it be illegal? And for that matter, why should any opposition to the Democrats at all be legal? We have seen the end results of allowing it and it has been disastrous at best. Now all this crap about liberty and freedom is literally killing us.

*VIRGINIA*

Roanoke College

Warner +21

Warner (D) 55%

Gade (R) 34%

[Poll conducted Aug 9-22, 2020, 566 Likely Voters]

Republican senators blocking unemployment benefits and stimulus checks during this pandemic and economic crisis is really going to backfire on Republicans.

It might save scumbags in deep red states like Mitch McConnell. But it's going to add more Democrats to the senate.

r283 = trollbait, butt-hurt Boris the triggered snowflake.

I wish

Forbes bitches, FORBES:

How is Sara Gideon doing in Maine?

Last time I counted, the pickup was five, with a loss of one (Alabama), making a net four. Has something changed?

270 to win Senate map

A lot of deplorables lie. It's axiomatic. If asked, they're not going to admit their voting plans to a pollster, or you. They can just say "undecided."

R288, that article is from June.

R292 this is interesting but weird as all of the Republicans in my family are PROUD and LOUD (as nauseating as that may be). Same with literally all of my acquaintances. Anecdotally, I have never known GOP voters to lie about who they support (although they often lie about plenty of other things). I honestly have not met an "undecided" moderate in real life. Usually these are the people will just not vote at all and there are plenty of them out there (in almost every age bracket. Two of my good friends fit this category - at least with what they did (or didn't do) in 2016 and 2018. Most people who bother to vote are opinionated enough to be upfront about who they support and why. Just my experience.

I agree with R294; anyone who is a Dump supporter is all in/loud & proud. The only people that *might* be reticent to admit their allegiance are people in very blue areas, but their vote doesn't matter anyway. If anything, I think some former Dump supporters are reluctant to admit they're voting for Biden because that means admitting they were wrong in 2016

R295 Agree. I do think we’ll have quiet Biden supporters.

This past week was full of frightening news. What I'm wondering is if there will be more moderate Republican defections -- not that they will leave the party, but they will publicly announce they are voting for Biden and against Trump, as John Kasich did for the DNC. Mitt Romney? George W. Bush? Dick Cheney? Jeb Bush? Any one of these would make a big difference.

Some of them already have

I don’t know. Michael Steel just said on MSNBC that Biden has let a harmful narrative that he is somehow allied with the riots and unrest set in. He said Biden should have fought Back much earlier, an definitely should have been out fighting all last week. He said once a negative narrative sets in, it is hard to dislodge it.

I wanna know why the Biden campaign has been so slow and lowkey. Yes, I know COVID-19 is stil raging, but they can stage socially distanced events on the campaign trail.

Michael Steel just said on MSNBC that Biden has let a harmful narrative that he is somehow allied with the riots and unrest set in

Michael Steel is a dumbass, desperate to stay relevant. I think now that the Yankee Doodle Repug Yankfest is over with, you *will* see Joe & Kamala out & about more and I think you'll see Kamala address the law & order/no looting, violence, etc. Also, Dump seems to be intent on *encouraging* violence, rather than calming the situation, so it shouldn't be that difficult to create a contrast with him.

Kansas has changed, Kentucky has changed and so has the Senatrice in South Carolina.

They're all tossups now and getting much more money on the Democratic side. That's more insurance for the four seats Democrats need: the real possibility they can take away 7!

The last I heard Kentucky was not even close. Did something change?

R299, Amanda Carpenter said on CNN tonight that she thinks Biden did a good job today of denouncing the violence and boxing Trump in.

The three most recent IA polls are encouraging, with challenger Greenfield leading by 3, 2, and 4 points. Pray for no police killings between now and Election Day.

All bets are off if Joni gets a new wig.

LOL R306! Why can't she choose one less obvious? No human looks good with what amounts to the same number of hairs in their wig as a Grizzly Bear has on its entire body. Why is this a look?

Yes, the latest poll (by Quinnipiac) has Mitch McConnell up only 5 percent over McGrath.

McConnell's opposition to unemployment relief in the face of a depression and COVID-19 are an open wound, that only rubs more raw in Kentucky because it's against Trump's wishes.

Plus, McGrath favors term limits like the majority of Kentucky voters and Trump, but most of them don't know it yet.

[quote]After voters are told that it is McGrath, not McConnell, who agrees with President Trump on term limiting Congress, she jumps out to a 15-point lead.

McGrath has beaten McConnell in several, other Kentucky polls this year.

And here is the close-up of Moscow Mitch McConnell's Achilles heel:

r309, that website might be slightly biased towards term limits.

Term Limits for Senators is a Constitutional Amendment debate.

Term Limits for Senators is a Constitutional Amendment debate.

This will never happen; people say they want term limits, but once they get someone with power working for their state (like Ted Kennedy back in the day), they want to keep that person in that position, however loathsome that person may be. I suspect that factor may be at work with Mitch; they hate his guts, but he sends home just enough bacon (and of course backs all the social issues they're so rabid about), so KY keeps him around to keep the goodies coming.

No one cares about term limits

North Carolina Senate GE: Tillis (R-inc) 44% Cunningham (D) 44%

East Carolina University, LV, 8/29-30

R314, that's the first North Carolina Senate poll in a long time to show Tillis in contention. Every other poll shows Cunningham with a lead.

Sign of a narrowing race, or an outlier poll?

Hard to tell but Trump is now leading in that poll. The Law and Order bounce may be helping Republicans overall in some states

North Carolina Poll:

Trump 49% (+2) Biden 47%

East Carolina University (8/29-30)

What kind of person will vote for Trump but then not vote for the Republican running for Senate? I don't understand that dynamic. It isn't like any of the Repub Senate candidates can be WORSE than the orange idiot.

R286 is a Russian bot which is why he keeps accusing everyone else of being one.

Well, it's a good thing that the poll was conducted by the independent RMG polling group, r310, and other observers have identified another key area where Moscow Mitch McConnell is once again defying the will of Kentucky's majority and their beloved Fuhrer's will.

Let's hope a shockingly weak Senate Majority Leader stays as smug as you.

r318 is the right-wing troll, just look at his posting history of Trump propaganda. Hit the ïgnore" button, then click on your "Ignore" list and you'll soon be reading MEIN KAMPF.

LYING HYPOCRISY AND PROJECTION FROM ANOTHER TRIGGERED NAZI.

The broke-ass, white trash rednecks out-of-work due to the pandemic who are furious that Mitch McConnell has started opposing Trump's policies, r317.

Trump wants stimulus checks and unemployment for those welfare queen rednecks and now McConnell is shutting it down. They also think McConnell has been in Washington too long and used it just to make himself rich.

I say outlier.

Russian trolls latest lame attempt to fight back from being identified as trolls is to say the person accusing them of being trolls are trolls. I saw this blow up on various SM. I had identified several of them pretending to be blacks supporting the dimwit prez. Suddenly Twitter announced they’d erased such accounts and lo and behold those accounts I suspected were gone.

Fox News

ARIZONA

Mark Kelly (D) (56%)

Martha McSally (R) (39%)

*

NORTH CAROLINA

Cal Cunningham (D) (48%)

Thom Tillis (R) (42%)

Wow, McSally's really tanking

Yes, very strange about McSally. I am in Arizona and amazed how voters have turned away from her. I don't understand why but I am happy she is going down.

You bitches better send me some lunch money!

Some of you are probably fatties, so you could do without a Starbucks Frappuccino or two!

good to hear about McSally. Like all Trumpistas she is just dead weight. Offering nothing but worship of the Trump Cult. But so many morons in this country love that shit that I'm pleasantly surprised to see people in Arizona are seeing the light.

Yes, it is very strange how Arizona voters have turned on her. She is losing by much more than when sh ran two years ago. She is completely useless so I am happy to see her go.

Music to my ears R323.

Hahaha, McSally in the 30s is what she deserves. Arizona is going to have 2 Democratic Senators! Yay!

NC would be such an achievement. The Republican looks weaker and weaker with each passing day.

R329, yes, the Dems have been in a strong position in the Arizona Senate race for a while, but it will also be significant if Cunningham can maintain his lead in North Carolina.

That would give Dems a strong chance of winning the Senate if Colorado and Maine also come through.

Romney and Ryan supposedly cried they were so shocked in 2012 that they didn't win. Republicans don't read anything but the Bible and Trump's tweets, so they're a little handicapped.

Wow. Rick Snyder, former Gov f MI, endorsed Biden. Wow. I thought this asshole was total deplorable.

Nice 👍🏽

R320 is talking about about himself again.

I know you're a Trump cleaner, but what am I?

*COLORADO*

September 3, 2020

Morning Consult poll

Hickenlooper +9

Hickenlooper (D) 48%

Gardner (R) 39%

So what I'm seeing is that the seats expected to flip will be North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, and Maine? Are there just four? Are there others?

Why is CO so close-ish? Hickenlooper was hugely popular as Gov and CO is pretty blue now. Plus Gardener is hardly popular.

R337 MT, GA, AK, IA are very winnable.

Treason thread is Muriel’d. Can someone start a new one pretty please?

Do we have any new polls on the Senate races for Montana and Kansas. Those two are potential pick ups based on past polling.

?*

R338, a 9-point lead over an incumbent Senator is still good, but it's true that Hickenlooper's lead is not as large as it was earlier in the year. Some of that may be as a result of the Republican attack ads, and some of it may be the normal tightening we see at this time of year.

R340, Bullock was leading in the Montana polls earlier this year, but then Daines caught up. There hasn't been any new Senate polling in Montana for several weeks, but I would expect there will be some soon.

R342 Tightening is normal in a normal race. Hickenlooper is hugely popular in a very blue state in the year of this prez against an incumbent who isn’t exactly popular. This should be a 15 point race.

R343, yes, but Hickenlooper has made a couple of flubs, he's been targeted by Republican attack ads, and he had a primary challenge from Andrew Romanoff. Hickenlooper was leading by 17-18 points earlier in the year, but there have been a couple of bumps in the road.

R344 but he’s a known quantity. He had a stellar record what are voters even thinking about? Makes no sense.

R345, the Morning Consult poll at R336 finds that Gardner is getting strong numbers from the Republican base. But Hickenlooper is winning Independents by a wide-margin.

Thank you R342/Polltroll. Steve Bullock is a notable dark horse. If Dems could nab a win there, it would make everything so much easier.

r337,

Read r211— r220. There are 10 tossups. Most of those are Republican incumbents, meaning pickups for the Dems and Republicans stand to lose.

r339 A parallel thread until Part 38

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Sep 9, 2020

Change Research

Cunningham +7

Cunningham (D) 51%

Tillis (R) 44%

[Likely Voters, Sep 4-6, 2020]

R350 I live in NC and Tillis stands no chance. He's hated even among Trumptards. Looking forward to 6 yrs of Cal's handsome face.

NC has a habit of giving its Senators one and done terms, with Helms and Burr being notable modern exceptions

Burr has announced he will not run for reelection

Thanks r349, and Red M took this thread off of subscriber.

See how long it lasts.

Tucker Carlson and Miz Lindsey are having a spat over Lindsey facilitating the Bob Woodward interviews with Trump.

Tucker & Lindsey don't like each other. Lindsey though, is a Sean Hannity regular.

It kills me that Tom Cotton is running unopposed in Arkansas. Walking into another 6 year term.

Was there no Dem to run against him? What happened?

It’s AR. It’s almost hopeless. They’re fighting MS and AL for last place in everything.

Bad look for Arkansas Democrats not to recruit someone to run against Tom Cotton. While it would be very, very difficult to unseat Cotton; make an effort to show the Democratic Party exists in Arkansas.

This is where the DNC Chair, Tom Perez, and staff could have worked with the State Democratic Party to organize and find someone credible enough willing to run. Find a woman or African American candidate at least.

The negligence of Perez is not limited to Arkansas. Biden needs to get Perez replaced after the election.

We need to amend the constitution to make all opposition to Democrats illegal.

People such as Bill Clinton, William J. Fulbright and Dale Bumpers were famous and successful Arkansas politicians.

Now it is Cotton, the Huckabees, and other despicable GOPers.

I really worry about the Russians hacking machines and messing with the tally.

*MAINE*

New poll today from Citizen Data

Gideon +8

Gideon (D) (49%)

Collins (R) (41%)

[600 Likely Voters, Sep 4-7, 2020]

[quote]I really worry about the Russians hacking machines and messing with the tally.

They must be wondering what to do about millions of mailed-in ballots.

[quote] Menz, I was there to bring you joy and relief. Now help me in my hours of need.

r364, it is no wonder that Trump made NO action to secure voting machines for three and a half years. My conclusion is that Putin gave him guarantees that he had the specific machines in specific counties loaded with Russian malware to make him win.

Putin could not anticipate the Covid shift to paper FULLY AUDIT-ABLE Vote By Mail.

And THAT is why Trump is losing his shit over VBM. Notice there were no problems with the USPS in March?

VOTE BY MAIL (and use a drop box)

*MINNESOTA*

Siena College/New York Times

Smith +9

Smith (D) 49%

Lewis (R) 40%

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Survey USA

Cunningham (D) 47%

Tillis (R) 40%

Does anybody else see a closet lesbian when they look at McGrath?

Or just me?

Boris @ r369, who cares. Like Democratic lesbians are so unusual.

Ask Tammy Baldwin.

I see a turtle slayer r369

A closet lesbian is better than a closet traitor.

*VIRGINIA*

Virginia Commonwealth University

Warner +17

Warner (D) 55%

Gade (R) 38%

[693 Likely Voters, Aug 28-Sep 7, 2020]

Saw a story today that this election's House races will be "decided by the suburbs". Any wonder why the Republicans have been trying to frighten the suburbanites with images of negroes burning and looting?

R372, he's no closet traitor; he's an out and proud traitor.

The Senatrice still can't get ahead of Jaime Harrison! This is a race to donate to.

A 12 percent lead for Gideon in Maine is DISASTROUS for Susan Collins.

Kelly's back to a 10-point lead over McSally in Arizona!

Is Susan Collins concerned that she's behind?

Hickenlooper is still beating Gardner in Colorado above the margin of error. It's his narrowest lead ever in a poll this year, but the polling was done during the Republican Nazi Rally on television in late August.

Gardner's bounce probably disappeared with Trump's.

I imagine the Senatrice wouldn't mind being nine inches in front of Harrison, then zero inches, then nine inches, then zero inches, then...

Oh yes, those sweet numbers from North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida are like music to my ears. Texas neck and neck. Hahaha watching Republicans squirm over Texas is one of life's true pleasures.

The most recent polling period shows that John Ossof has taken the lead in the Georgia senate race, too!

Awesome, first time!

What this means is that if the election were held today, Democrats would pick up 5 senate seats with Graham-Harrison too close to call. Gideon, Cunningham, Kelly, Hickenlooper and Ossoff would all win!

Democrats only need 3 of those 5 to take over the Senate with Biden as president. They only need 4 of those 5 for a Trump and Pence-proof majority.

GOOD GUYS WIN, EVIL FAILS IN U.S. POLITICS 2020!

[quote]A 12 percent lead for Gideon in Maine is DISASTROUS for Susan Collins.

The Qunnipiac numbers for Gideon in Maine are probably a little generous. The final race between Gideon and Collins is likely to be closer, but it's definitely a good sign for Gideon so far.

Just remember that a 1% win in all states is a LANDSLIDE

A paltry $1200 after the GOP gave free taxpayer money to Trump's corporate welfare grifters isn't enough.

To be clear, today's numbers only mean a NET gain of 4 seats in the Senate.

Doug Jones is sure to lose in Alabama to the Republicans, so we have to subtract one seat.

But that's still a Pence-proof takeover of the Senate.

Poor Susan. So misunderstood.

Kentucky is gone. Don't waste any more money there.

r390, sending $$ to Georgia and South Carolina.

That's fine. Even if Moscow Mitch wins his re-election, if we take over the Senate his influence and power will be greatly diminished once he's minority leader.

Just now, MSNBC - Quinnipac poll shows the Kentucky turtle at 53%. McGrath at 41%.

What in the ever loving fuck! We better win that goddamn senate, and put McConnell in his place.

Bullock has a good chance in Montana. And your $$ goes farther.

KY is not lost, yet.

MT is an excellent chance to flip.

I love McGrath. It will hurt me if she loses this one, KY doesn’t deserve her.

McGrath ought to be winning or at least even. We need to get some money behind her. She is an absolutely stellar candidate! McConnell is a pig.

McConnell belongs impeached and imprisoned for obstructing justice during Trump's impeachment trial.

No witnesses, really? Acquitted, really?

LOCK HIM UP!

Fucker. McConnell deserves prison ot re-election. Tell you what. If that fucker "wins" we absolutely MUST rob him of his status. We need the Senate. Graham is gonna win too. Right now Gary Peters in Michigan is in a very tight race against a very attractive Black Republican who loves Trump's dirty drawers. Peters needs help. Doug Jones in Alabama needs help. We cannot afford to lose any seats!

Then, we get Mark Kelly elected, Sarah Gideon dumps Collins, and we have to help Hickenlooper and Bullock. I want to see Perdue defeated in Georgia too. He is rotten scum so help Ossoff. Now, Kelly Loeffler is a weak candidate, but her opponent is a Black preacher, who is pastor of the historic Ebeneezer Baptist Church. He's a good man, but I don't see him winning.

Montana, Montana, Montana

I'm writing postcards every day to voters in these swing states

Siena College/The New York Times

*ARIZONA* (Kelly +8)

*NORTH CAROLINA (Cunningham +5)

*MAINE* (Gideon +5)

[Likely Voters, Sep 10-16, 2020]

'Mother' Pence may have to make another trip to S.C. to boost Miss Miz Lindzey.

I believe we can get Mark Kelly and Sarah Gideon elected. No problem. But it will take a ton of $$$ and hard work for McGrath, Ossoff and Harrison to win. And we cannot afford to lose a single seat. I do not see Perdue, Miz Lindsey or McConnell going quietly. But hey. Remember when we had those assholes in the House, like Eric Cantor who everyone said were unbeatable? And we kicked their ass? We can do this. But we must be RELENTLESS.

Des Moines Register will have a new Iowa Senate poll tomorrow at 6 p.m. CT:

"Is Susan Collins concerned that she's behind?"

We got 'er..

Yeah, McGrath is not happening. Ossoff will have really hard time fighting Georgia shenanigans even if he gets a chance. Harrison is possible but very long shot. Gideon, Cunningham, Kelly and Hikkenlooper should be able to do it. Among others, the better chances are in Iowa, Montana and Kansas where races are very tight. So if you want to donate, do it there.

Magrath looks too much like a lesbian for conservative Kentucky voters. Unfortunately, Mitch was never in any real danger of losing.

^ The irony is that Mitch is probably just as gay as McGrath

The Arizona Senate race will become even more important now with the death of RBG.

Election law experts say if Mark Kelly wins, he could be sworn in as early as November 30:

All the long shots that maybe had a chance don’t now. Harrison and Ossof are toast. The Supreme Court issue will galvanize Rs.

If you want me to repeat the facts about Democrats leading these Senate surveys for 2 years straight again, why don't you just ask me to repeat the facts because you're a troll?

The disingenuous contradictions are so passive-aggressive.

There's no "toast" available when long-term incumbent Lindsey Graham can't pull ahead of his opponent for 3 months.

There's no "toast" when McGrath's term limit stand could cost McConnell his re-election if she emphasizes that and her support for Trump's economic stimulus.

Republicans opposing economic relief AND stealing another Supreme Court seat is going to have major repercussions — possibly on McConnell himself — before election day.

Democrats are taking a Pence-proof majority on Nov. 3 and there's never been polling indicating otherwise.

[quote]^ The irony is that Mitch is probably just as gay as McGrath

And that both look lesbionic

New poll tonight from Des Moines Register:

Democrat Theresa Greenfield leads Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst by 3 points:

Democrat Theresa Greenfield: 45%

Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst: 42%

Someone else: 3%

R414, that's a good lead for Greenfield from an excellent pollster. Let's see how much this SCOTUS situation changes this. Dems should be fundraising for Greenfield instead of wasting money in Kentucky.

R415, yes, the Selzer poll is rated A+.

Although Trump is likely to win Iowa, these numbers give Greenfield a shot. As Selzer says tonight, Greenfield has maintained her 3-point lead from the previous Selzer poll earlier in the Summer. It suggests Ernst is vulnerable.

Agreed. IA is more in play than KY.

What did Le Senatrice do that was wrong to deserve this?

More from the Iowa Senate poll from DMR:

“Greenfield leads with independent voters like Denison 47% to 32% over Ernst.

Additionally, 10% of those who say they voted for Trump in 2016 plan to vote for Greenfield in 2020.”

[quote]The Arizona Senate race will become even more important now with the death of RBG.Election law experts say if Mark Kelly wins, he could be sworn in as early as November 30:

[bold]Yes![/bold] I've said multiple times. The path to victory comes through Arizona and the Latino vote.

Biden is expected to run away with the Latin vote in Arizona which is why the Cook Political Report moved the state from Tossup to Lean Democrat. If Arizona throws a wrench into McConnell's Supreme Court plans even better.

Did anyone read Martha McSally's tweet right after RBG's death was announced? What a bitch! Watching her go down in flames should be one of the main highlights on election night. <3

With a McConnell in the Senate as minority leader, the new AG could investigate him and his wife for corruption and misappropriation of funds. He could resign on their way to prison.

Don’t forget his wife too! I expect the feds to get him through his wife’s many illegal deals.

This is awesome, the biggest lead I've seen for Greenfield in the polls.

Momentum is on the side of justice.

If the Democrats keep hold of the House, Trump still has a couple impeachments ahead of him.

*MONTANA*

Siena College/New York Times

Sen. Daines (R) leads Gov. Bullock (D) by 1 point

*

Daines (R) 45%

Bullock (D) 44%

[625 Likely Voters, Sep 14-16, 2020]

My money is going to the race in Montana, Iowa, Kansas, and Arizona. Though with Arizona looking safer for Dems, maybe I should donate to another race instead.

Which one is more doable South Carolina or Georgia?

I think both are tight. Harrison seems to be doing well, holding his own against Graham, and Ossoff is doing the same against Perdue. But both Graham and Perdue are ruthless corrupt bastards so anything can happen. I hope the Dems win, but if it happens it will most likely happen in South Carolina, as improbable as it seems. You have PErdue running nasty anti- semitic ad campaign against Ossoff who's Jewish. Inn S.C. I'm surprised a Black man can actually be in a competitive race against Graham. But Graham's slavish disgusting devotion to Trump may finally do him in, and PErdue's absolutely corrupt avaricious behavior may get him ousted too. But the Perdues are not to be underestimated, and the Defense Industry has a huge investment in Graham.

[quote]the new AG could investigate him and his wife for corruption and misappropriation of funds.

People may have forgotten, but as U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mrs. Mitch McConnell has someone on her staff specifically to help Kentucky get federal money, something no other state has at the department.

And who knows what the fuck is going on with the SHIPPING company with Chinese government backing that her father owns and sister runs. We certainly don't know, because most of her official calendar is "private" and not available for public review of her activities.

Take Mitch out.

Then South Carolina it is. Plus the added bonus of watching Lindsay get kicked out of the Senate, by a black man no less, is too good of an opportunity to miss.

[quote]Take Mitch out.

He my have to be taken out by the judicial because the polls are looking favorable for him.

What is happening in Michigan? The Senator who is not Debbie Stabenow, named Gary Peters, does not look like he has a very strong lead over the John James guy, 46% to 43%.

I only know about this because I was Googling the Dynasty John James from the "80s Hunks" thread.

[quote]People may have forgotten, but as U.S. Secretary of Transportation Mrs. Mitch McConnell has someone on her staff specifically to help Kentucky get federal money, something no other state has at the department.

I never knew this. As if I didn't already hate them and that state enough for being leeches.

R430, While the race is a little close, RCP's averages have been bullshit this cycle. It's not that close. it's just outside of margin of error of 5%. It's wishful thinking on GOP's part.

[quote]Which one is more doable South Carolina or Georgia?

Oh, honey .... you know that I'm VERY "doable."

A new poll today puts Governor Steve Bullock just 1 percent behind Deplorable Steve Daines for Montana's senate seat!

These are some serious gains made by the Democrat. This particular poll erroneously included Green Party candidates who will NOT be on the November 3 ballot in Montana.

The Green Party pulled in 3.5 percent of the vote, which would mostly go to Bullock without a Green option!

Big, blue wave momentum everywhere right now!

McConnell and all the Republican senators belong in prison for obstructing justice during Trump's impeachment, r421.

Just my opinion, but they could legally be punished that way.

R435, that would require someone who isn't a pussy like Schumer. God, how I would love a Dem version of McConnell - and at least that Dem would have every right to fuck with the Reps.

I think Klobuchar would make a better Majority Leader than Schumer.

Yes, Amy should be Majority leader. Or Warren.

Sorry bitches.

Do you think that Catherine Cortez-Masto showed up on the VP vetting list for no reason at all?

CCM is the rainmaker for the Democrats in the Senate.

She is a Harry Reid Democrat.

Schumer needs to go.

Schumer saying "IF" McConnell does this, then "nothing is off the table" is why he is so fucking weak. We already know McConnell IS doing this. Fucking say to the Republicans that everything will change with the next election. Call out their behavior over the years including under Obama and tell them it will all be remembered after the next election and there will be no compromise after they've exposed themselves as glaring hypocrites with no sense of honor and they are a disgrace to this country. How do you act like such a fucking coward knowing you come from the great state of NY representing 20M people and the shithead from KY with fewer people than your major city is dependent on YOUR state, not the other way around.

How the Flood of Democratic Fundraising Since Ginsburg’s Death Is Changing the Senate Landscape

The problem with Amy is that she is too flirty with rethugs and I believe she helped Mitch pass some of his judges.

Besides she seems “off” and unstable.

Seems off? Her stances show she clearly is off.

She is better than McConnell

Picketers are surrounding genteel, Southern estates of Mitch the Bitch and La Belle Graham.

I DO declare!

[quote] Remember when we had those assholes in the House, like Eric Cantor who everyone said were unbeatable? And we kicked their ass?

We didn't do that. They were primaried by Republican candidates who were even more extreme right-wing.

New poll from Morning Consult/Politico:

50% of voters said the winner of the November election should make new Supreme Court pick

37% of voters said President Trump should pick Justice Ginsburg’s replacement regardless of who wins on Nov. 3

12% don't know

*MAINE UPDATE*

September 21, 2020

Sabato Crystal Ball moves Maine Senate from Toss Up to Leans Democratic:

The Senatrice was enjoying the company of an overnight gentleman caller. Then the protesters rudely interrupted the tender snuggling.

The Senatrice can go fuck him/herself.

Fucking hypocrite, if I didn't hate him before...

[quote]Schumer saying "IF" McConnell does this, then "nothing is off the table" is why he is so fucking weak.

Dianne Feinstein is even worse. Just today she said she doesn't support getting rid of the filibuster because she thinks they don't use it as much anymore, which is absolutely false. She's demented.

Dianne Feinstein is almost 90 years old, she needs to retire.

Today's state senate polls:

GEORGIA University of Georgia, 11-20 Sep, LV

Ossoff (D) 45%, Perdue (R) 47%

MORNING CONSULT, 11-20 Sep, LV

Ossoff (D) 44%, Perdue (R) 43%

SOUTH CAROLINA

MORNING CONSULT, 11-20 Sep, LV

Harrison (D) 45%, Graham (R) 46%

Very tight races in both states. So, if you want to donate, Ossoff and Harrison are the best bets for more senate flipping. In addition, Biden and Trump are tied in Georgia and in within margin of error in South Carolina as well.

More polls from Morning Consult

*COLORADO*

Hickenlooper +7

Hickenlooper (D) 49%

Gardner (R) 42%

*

*ARIZONA*

Kelly +9

Kelly (D) 49%

McSally (R) 40%

**

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Cunningham +9

Cunningham (D) 47%

Tillis (R) 38%

[Poll conducted Sep 11-20, 2020]

Keep the momentum going. Don't assume Senate control is in the bag. Please consider donations to those Democratic challengers running against vulnerable GOP Senators. 3$ or 5$ or 10$

In Arizona it's Mark Kelly running against GOP Senator Martha Mc Sally.

In Maine it's Sara Gideon running against GOP Trump Kiss Ass Susan Collins

In Colorado it's John Hickenlooper running against GOP Trump sycophant Cory Gardner

In South Carolina it's Jaime Harrison running against GOP Grande Dame Lindsay Graham

Don't overlook Kansas. Haven't had a poll for a month, but Barbara Bollier, the Democrat, was within two points of the Republican candidate in this open seat. Kansas has often had female, Democratic, governors...including right now...so they can win in statewide races. Also, Nancy Kassebaum was a moderate Republican senator for many years and she has come out and has endorsed Bollier over Marshall, the grifting Republican.

I don't trust the polls.

Then you're an idiot / Republican troll.

The polls in 2016 had a margin of error and they said Hillary could lose. They were accurate.

It's a good thing Biden is performing above Hillary.

Good points, r457.

Let's not forget Bullock in Montana. I believe the last poll also showed him within two points of Daines.

Bullock was a popular governor there.

It seems McSally has been closing in in Arizona. It is time to donate a little money to him.

R461 Going from no chance to little chance

McSally obviously isn't going to win. There are other, closer, races that would benefit from the money more.

Mark Kelly raided 7.35 million dollars in August alone. He hasn't plenty of money. Donate elsewhere where there close senate races.

Mark Kelly raised 7.35 million dollars in August alone. He has plenty of money. Donate elsewhere where there close senate races.

Fixed it.

Conjuring PollTroll-- are you following the MS Senate race? Is this legitimate?

R466, yes it is BUT it's MS. Epsy was close the last time in 2018 and with all confederate scandals surrounding Hyde-Smith, he still didn't make it. He needs more commanding lead in polls to stand a chance.

In Mississippi, R467, there is no such thing as a "Confederate scandal." In Mississippi, that's a selling point. I'm surprised she hasn't appeared with the Orange Idiot in full rebel regalia.

Wow.

You know the Republicans are in DEEP SHIT when they can't even hold Texas, Georgia and Mississippi!

R466, it's the same pollster and they are registering a large drop in Hyde-Smith's numbers.

The poll is 3 weeks old and from late August, so we'll have to wait & see whether the trendline is confirmed by other pollsters.

Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina seem to be the closest thing to a done deal. Then we have Iowa, Maine, and Michigan that will be close but are holding up thus far. Kansas, Montana, Georgia, and South Carolina should be our plan B.

I already stopped donating to Arizona and NC and will focus instead on making sure Maine, Iowa, and Michigan hold up so we can run away with 6. I may still donate to Kansas and Montana to cover all our bases.

Bloomberg is paying off the debts of ex convicts who owe fees and fines to the state of Florida. So far 32,000 can be added to the voter rolls. But we have registration deadlines, I read that LeBron James is getting involved too.

Would love to see that despicable old queen and lying DJT ultra-sycophant dumped in SC. Maybe Lachan Murdoch will have her on Fox full time, and Mr. Koch can channel her more millions for a real makeover for attracting age 75+ deplorables with influence she can sashay around.

First poll today that puts Warnock in GE-1 IN a better position than Ossof in GE-2, a statistical tie with Loeffler.

MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY 17-21 Sep, LV

Warnock 25%

Collins 24%

Loeffler 23%

Lieberman 9%

Tarver 2%

Slowinski 2%

Still an extremely long shot.

Wow, the Republican preference in Georgia's senate races have just evaporated in a month!

There is going to be a left-field Senate win for Democrats this year or two that were never on anyone's radar until this month or later!

r476, Blue Wave Democratic Senators.

Cook Political Report:

Colorado Senate Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democrat

September 23, 2020

Cook Report is a bit late. That Colorado senate seat was always solid Dem.

R479, in theory the Colorado Senate seat should have been a pretty easy pickup for the Dems, but in practice Hickenlooper has had some stumbles this year and has not been running as strongly against Gardner as expected. That's why Cook Political kept it a Toss Up. But now Gardner's decision to vote for Trump's Supreme Court nominee will probably seal his doom.

New Senate polls this morning:

Siena College/New York Times

IOWA (Greenfield +2) (D)

GEORGIA 1 (Perdue +3) (R)

GEORGIA 2 (Loeffler +4) (R)

TEXAS (Cornyn +6) (R)

[Likely Voters, Poll conducted Sep 16-22, 2020]

Some more promising state polling today.

SEP 14-19, 2020, Data for Progress (B pollster). LV

KANSAS

TIE Bollier (D) 42% Marshall (R) 42%

GEORGIA-1

Warnock (D) 26%

Collins (R) 22%

Loeffler (R) 21%

Lieberman (D) 14%

GEORGIA-2

TIE Ossoff (D) 44% Perdue (R) 44%

Please support Bollier, Ossoff, and Warnock if you want to donate.

Don't write off any of the candidates between r211 and r220. We can help all of them.

Uh oh.....

He knows exactly why people hate his guts. Unlike delusional Trump, he knows he deserves all of the hate for not only his enabling Trump over the years, but proving at every turn that he is not a man of his word - literally.. Miss L will never admit it, but he knows he deserves it for having not a shred of basic decency.

What is the best way to donate to the most needed Senate seats? Act Blue?

They each have their own funds but I think they all go through Act Blue as the mechanism. Just do a search on their name.

I just gave $250 through Get Mitch or Die Trying. I hate that turtle faced mother fucker with the heat of a thousand suns ... I let them split it.

*MAINE*

Colby College

Gideon +4

Gideon (D) 45%

Collins (R) 41%

[847 Likely Voters, Sep 17-23, 2020]

As much as I hate Turtle Mitch, I hate Lady G one thousand times more. McTurtle has always been a monster and doesn't pretend to be anything else. Lady G has no compunction at all in doing a complete 180 on multiple topics making him even worse because he is a bitch for the highest bidder. He is the number one Senate target to drive out.

r490, Mcturtle isn't likely to lose anyway, but it is certainly possible to take down Miss Lindsey this time.

I hope Mississippi flips to the Democrats in a surprise win.

Kansas is staying close. Donate to Barbara Bollier!

here is the Kansas link.

We should have a weekend fundraiser thread. Let’s see how much we can raise.

We can narrow in on a handful of candidates. It will be fun. I have an extra $150 or so after I’ve already donated. I will participate.

r491, Mitch must remain in the Senate while he and his wife are investigated for corruption.

I see him expelled from the Senate before he goes to jail.

THAT is how he needs to leave the Senate.

The Bump Troll is at it again. What is he trying to hide? Is he worried about the Republicans losing power, including the Senate?

R497. Yes.

if anyone reading this hasn't donated to Mike Espy in Mississippi for Senate, it's a great race to donate to NOW. The incumbent Republican is only polling 1 point ahead and hasnt been fundraising. It's a longshot but he got 47% two years ago and your money goes 100x farther in his race than some of the others that are swimming in money. Same goes for Al Gross in Alaska.

Maybe some Hillary Clinton thread bumps from 2016 will erase all the bad news for Trump and produce a Trump victory in 2020!

GO, 2016! Everything will go EXACTLY the same because all the factors are EXACTLY the same!

r500, The anti-Biden misogyny is palpable.

Hillary's Deplorables have become Trump's Disgusting People.

EXACTLY THE SAME

*NORTH CAROLINA*

CBS/YouGov

Cunningham +10

Cunningham (D) 48%

Tillis (R) 38%

[Likely Voters, Sep 22-25, 2020]

*NORTH CAROLINA*

University of Massachusetts Lowell

Cunningham +6

Cunningham (D) 49%

Tillis (R) 43%

[Likely Voters, Sep 18-25, 2020]

[quote]if anyone reading this hasn't donated to Mike Espy in Mississippi for Senate,

This is where it pays to have a large family. I have at least 6 family members donating to Mike Espy. Gurl, I'm hustling and working those connections. lol

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*

University of Massachusetts Lowell

Shaheen +19

Shaheen (D) 56%

Messner (R) 37%

[Likely Voters, Sep 18-25, 2020]

Barbara Bollier is up two in Kansas in the latest polling released today! It's within the margin of error, of course, but this seat is winnable. Please consider donating. If the Republicans can lose a senate seat in Kansas, anything is possible. Kansas Republicans, at least those in the cities, are a lot more pragmatic than one would think. It isn't like they are hateful Southern Republicans.

Quinnipiac Poll 23-27 Sep (LV)

South Carolina Senate

Harrison 48%

Graham 48%

Pls, go donate to Harrison.

Every Democratic candidate needs to run against Trump -- make their opponent endorse or repudiate him.

The most shocking thing that South Carolina poll is that Biden is only one point behind Trump. I'm the poster living in South Carolina, and I've been saying that I see a surprising lack of Trump support.

If he loses here, you're going to see a Total Wipeout election night.

What’s the easiest way to donate to a lot of candidates from one site and hope it gets to that actual campaign?

Actblue

I did that today R510, they have a flip the senate section and you can let them divide or you divide. I gave $250, ended up bee $22 and change to a bunch of tight races ... the only negative, Im now getting email bombarded from each candidate ... so Ive been unsubscribing as they come in ...

Paul

I've already donated to Harrison and Ossoff. How about you?

Iowa

Greenfield +12

SEP 23-26, 2020

RABA Research, 780LV

Greenfield 51%

Ernst 39%

I hope this is not an outlier and this trend continues. Donate to Greenfield, guys.

Woah, r514. I love the idea of that devil witch going down because of Dump. You lie down with dogs, you wake up with shit all over you.

I donated to 18 Dems last night. I’ve never been more motivated.

Good news!

*ARIZONA*

Suffolk University

Kelly +9

Kelly (D) 49%

McSally (R) 40%

[Likely Voters, Sep 26-30, 2020]

PT, isn't Kelly regularly over 50 in AZ? r518

R519, the AZ race has been tightening a bit in some of the polls, so Kelly's overall average at RCP is actually 49.8 at the moment:

15 days later and we're STILL tied @ 48%

South Carolina needs to shit or get off the Senatrice!

The North Carolina Dem may have blown it!

I just donated $50 to Jaime Harrison directly.

Thank GOD the site doesn't ask you for a phone number. There is nothing worse than political groups soliciting via phone calls and texts all day, every day!

r366 isn't necessarily helping Democrats.

You should deliver your mail-in ballot to the election center personally. Don't mail it when Trump is sabotaging the USPS.

Jaime Harrison was very compelling in his debate with La Belle de Graham tonight.

r516 You rock! I am so glad to see people on here donating to these campaigns (and hopefully, these people will remain generous in the future because in the 2020's, progressives need to start funding their causes. if we just spent $1 billion per year on progressive political causes for a few years, we might not have to spend as much in the 8 weeks up to the election. And people might start having their opinions changed outside of the election season.

R524, Those drop boxes are considered the Election Center.

r366

Sent some $$$ to Dr. Al Gross

Some 2022 Senate news:

GOP PA Senator Pat Toomey will not run for re-election in 2022. Announcement expected Monday according to Philly Inquirer.

Good news. I fucking hate Toomey

twitter has pitchforks aimed at toomey's ass!

*ARIZONA*

Siena College/New York Times

Kelly +11

Kelly (D) 50%

McSally (R) 39%

[Likely Voters, Oct 1-3, 2020]

Barbara Bollier is up four in the latest poll out of Kansas. She has a real shot. Kansas has no problem with electing women to statewide offices. There have been three female Democratic governors, three insurance commissioners, two state treasurers, and one senator (Nancy Landon Kassebaum who is from a very traditional Republican family but has endorsed Bollier). Please consider donating if you can.

Donate!

Bollier got $50 from me!

Gave Bollier some money, too

Me too.

It would seen from all these Dem-leaning senate seats and ones where we have a chance, there are nine backward states where the Republican is a sure thing: ID, WY, SD, NE, OK, AR, LA, TN, and WV. Can we start throwing some money to some of these in these last weeks? The Democrat might not win, but we'll at least have helped build the local party organization and maybe boosted the chances of some down-ticket people.

I don't think that makes sense, R538, when any money should go to actual races that could be in the mix, right up until the last moment.

Why not donate to both? ME, SC, and AZ probably have enough money already; likewise CO. Start donating if you haven't already to TX, GA, KS, and AL. Buf if you have any left over, send it to this crazy lady!

I wouldn't even know who is running against Cassidy in Louisiana if I didn't google it. No ads whatsoever. I wouldn't even know there was a Senate race if Cassidy wasn't running a ton of ads. And it's not so long ago that we had two Democratic Senators.

Is r538 a Boris who just wants us to waste our money on the unchangeable races?

What makes you think the Wyoming senate race is competitive? @ r540 he denigrates the Democratic candidate and calls for money to go to her.

Earlier, posters have tried to dissuade us from donating to candidates who ARE competitive and not to " Get Mitch or Die Trying."

Boris is afoot.

Jesus fucking Christ, don't pull that Boris shit on everyone you paranoiacally suspect. I'm not saying donate only to unwinnable races. I've donated so far about $1000 on the candidates in SC, KY, MI, AL, GA (both Osoff and Warnock), KS, MS, IA, AK, and TX, and will donate more. (I didn't bother with ME, AZ, or CO precisely because they had tons of money already, in Gdideon's case in cheap markets, and activists were advising to donate to campaigns that were more in need.) Some of those were considered losing prospects a few weeks ago and now (like Hegar and Espy) are seeing at least tightening numbers. Don't accuse me of subversion if I'm ready to send $30 or so to the woman in WY, if only to boost the local party and Democratic visibility in the state.

I love MJ Hegar

Who is made of enough money to donate to every Senate race?

Please put your money on competitive races, where the polls show the Democrat's voter support within 5% of the Republican's.

These are the only races where your money can make a difference. Most red states are full of hardened liars who will never vote Democratic, even if you paid them.

Georgia senate races dramatically tightened in the last month. If you want a smart investment, donate to Warnock (now leading in most polls) and Ossoff (within MoE).

Warnock is in some bullshit race where a bunch of people compete, then the top two have a run-off (assuming no one person gets 50% or more). Since the two Republicans' current support adds up to more than Warnock's, it looks like he'll ultimately lose even if he comes in with a plurality. But send him money anyway!!! Maybe it will at least convince Joe Lieberman's weirdo son to drop out.

Please donate to Warnock. Loeffler is a racist, insider-trading twat

Is there really any point in the Georgia races right now? Won't they both go to run-offs in January and the money will be better spent then?

Only the special election for what is now Loeffler's seat may go into a run-off (if no one gets 50%). Money donated to Ossoff will be well spent now. Monwy donated to Warnock will also be well spent now, since it means leaving Lieberman as far behind as possible among Democratic voters and even possibly pushing Warnock over the 50% threshold (he's at 41% in a recent poll and the Republican vote is split evenly between Loeffler and some other kook).

r549 In the right atmosphere, Osoff could win 50%. The Warnock race is def going to a runoff. Osoff has enough money though.

Donations at this point can go to MJ Hegar and Mike Espy. The money goes farthest with Espy and Jones in Alabama. (Alaska appears to be well funded at this point, he's over $9 million which is enough).

I donated $200 to Bullock at Montana.

[quote]The money goes farthest with Espy and Jones in Alabama.

But Texas is extremely expensive to run in because of all those different TV markets, so Hegar probably needs it more.

Give Doug Jones some $$$ if you can. He's a good man.

Texas is the revelation of this election along with Arizona and Kansas.

Harrison raised $57 million last quarter to unseat Lindsey Graham.

I gave $50 to Harrison.

Which is why, R556, he doesn't need any more money. Give it to senate candidates in other states like Kansas, Alaska, and Georgia (Ossoff only at this point).

McGrath and Turtle debate tonight.

Some of those were considered losing prospects a few weeks ago and now (like Hegar and Espy) are seeing at least tightening numbers.

TX has been hit hard by the 'rona, so maybe TX is looking to send a message to weak Cornyn.

It shocks me how poor and disadvantaged Kentucky is... near last in all categories that indicate a good life (education, wealth, etc). This isn’t a run of the mill senator, it’s the most powerful senator in the US! And for many years. McGrath should hammer home that point at every opportunity. He’s enriched himself while they got poorer.

I didn't see the TX debate the other night, maybe posters here can fill me in, but the couple of reports I saw (by political commentators) said Hegar did at least a creditably if not scintillating job and Cornyn just seemed worn down and lacked answers.

All recent polls from Montana have been tightening at lightening speed.

Today's Montana PPP poll

OCT 9-10, 2020

President

Biden 46% Trump 52%

Trump +6, this is terrible number for Trump in this state.

Senate

Bullock 48% Daines 48% TIE

Pls, donate to Bullock, he can do it!!!!!

[quote]All recent polls from Montana have been tightening at lightening speed.

Oh, dear.

Among KS, AK and MT, I'd be OK with two out of three. Hegar on TX seems a good debater to me. The big surprise to me is the Libertarian in AR having an outside chance!

Osoff seems at least even odds for 50% the way things are going. Collins and Loeffler running so even give me hope the loser's voters won't unify, especially if she prevails.

Don't forget Gary Peters in Michigan! He is within a few points of losing and the Democrats ABSOLUTELY must keep his seat. His campaign needs money far more than people like Amy McGrath or Jaime Harrison who are rolling in money.

I just gave to Peters

So James is threatening Peters in Michigan just because he's black.

FUCK I hate identity politics.

The people who complain the most about "identity politics" are the ones who support white supremacy aka identity politics for Republicans

I don't believe the montana polls are as close as what PPP just put out. This was expected to be a tossup race all along but my guess is that it stays Republican.

If Biden comes within 5-8 points of Trump in Montana, he'll have won the Presidency with other states and Bullock will win the seat. That's just not likely to happen. Then again Trump won by 19 last time and Bullock still won the governor's seat.

Cornyn is trying to peel off some black voters from Hegar.

[quote]And last week Hegar revealed to Hearst Newspapers that she voted against Barack Obama in his 2008 and 2012 presidential bids. - Senator John Cornyn

That's on top of earlier news that Royce West, her primary opponent, said she had never reached out to him, and that he did not plan to vote for her.

[quote]State Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas, reportedly does not plan to vote for MJ Hegar, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate who beat him in the primary runoff, saying she is "crazy" and has "had a problem all along with Black folks."

Montana, Tennessee and a couple other states are seeing their COVID19 rates increase by more than 50% in the past few days. It may affect how people think about the election. Bullock needs help. Hickenlooper in Colorado needs help, and Doug Jones in Alabama needs help. Jones is the incumbent Democrat and if he loses his seat we lose a seat. We ought to be able to hold Jones and gain 8 more. We can fuck McConnell and Graham up if we donate and vote.

I think we can still take the Senate but I don't think we can save Jones' seat at this point, he's too far behind.

R573 I’ve seen no polling from AL.

Why does Hickenlooper need help? The latest poll I've seen gave him a comfortable margin of 9%.

New Survey USA poll says Cunningham is still 10 points ahead of Tillis in NC. Voters don't care about his affair, and the whole Amy Coney Barrett nonsense has them more fired up for the Democrats than for the Republicans.

Great news, R576.

R574

Unfortunately, I have seen a survey from the last couple of weeks that showed the Republican ahead fairly comfortably.

R578 Nobody else has seen any evidence this race is lost.

R578, how about producing a link? A quick google search has turned up nothing of what you said.

The Republican is ahead in Alabama! You guys seem to feel I meant NC???

R581 No good recent polls.

While 51 seats gives a party majority in senate, it isn't exactly a slam dunk. Sixty votes without a VP from same party (who would in theory make the sixty-first vote needed) or a straight sixty-one from one party or bi-partisan is needed to move something in senate. Otherwise the opposition party can do all sorts of things to kill a bill. Mitch McConnell fucked with Obama that way most of his second term, and tried his damn best during first.

This is why Senator Turtle and GOP are rushing this SCOTUS process. They have wanted a conservative high court for decades and don't want to risk things in 2021. Even if DT does win reelection if democrats pick-up enough seats (at least 51 or 52), then they can stop any nomination in its tracks.

The first order of business will be getting rid of the filibuster in the Senate, r583.

There has been much talk on both sides about eliminating filibuster in senate. Calmer heads and or those who believe in the traditions of that body always come back to "no", the thing shouldn't be gotten rid of.....

GOP with their super majority over past almost four years didn't even go there...

R585 What year did the gop have a super majority in the US Senate?

In strict percentages (60%) that honor goes to democrats. However GOP has had 54 along with ability to peel off a few independent/democrats that got them close enough for whatever purpose.

Super majority is 67 seats

Kansas

The Dems have such good candidates this year, and they're fighters, too!

The Dems have such good candidates this year, and they're fighters, too!

r589 That would be soooo fantastic if true! Knocking out Mitch would be an even more iconic political scalp than Lindsay Graham!

I wouldn't put too much stock in any Alabama polling. Certain states aren't polled that often. With bigger more competitive states, they have a good sense of what's happening inside the electorate with polls but the issue is that they just don't know who is going to vote on Election day (or election season now that some states start in September).

Jones won in 2017. The chances are not 50% that he wins again. Chances of a victory are probably 20-30%. That's GOOD. We're not winning Nebraska or Tennessee. But in any six year cycle, a handful of those longshot races like Jones' end up paying off when the votes are counted and its often the difference between a Senate majority and minority.

r593 Strange to think Tennessee used to be democratic senator and Vice President Al Gores home state 20 years ago and now it seems to be out of reach to the democrats.

r592, the Moscow turtle is from Kentucky, not Kansas.

My mistake! Apologies r595

Nobody figured Jones would keep his seat in the first place.

The Democrats are still making a net gain of at least 5 seats. Republicans are SCREWED and defending more vulnerable seats than Democrats in some of the REDDEST states.

They shouldn't have behaved like lying Nazis for Hair Fuhrer.

You have been informed by me and the media for 2 years that Doug Jones will not be returning to the Senate, r572.

That is a lost cause and you never should have counted on him.

Democrats are taking over the Senate anyway, without him. Alabama is full of Deplorable, hardened liars.

Go back and read the article @ r2 and the posts at r388 and r478.

You were informed that Jones has always been toast and his loss is factored into the calculations here. The Democrats are taking over the Senate without him. Why is he even being discussed?

Part II continued here: