Democrats are taking over the Senate in 2020 ... Part II

The polls have been saying this for years. Trump's Deplorable crimes, neglect and the pandemic are just increasing Democratic Party returns.

Here is the link to the first thread, if you need to catch up.

thanks

And, the Repukes know it as well. They’re freaking out. November 3 is very likely going to be quite a bad night for them. The Dems are going to pick up seats that no one ever expected.

And let’s not forget what La Senatrice, the Lady G, prophetically said in 2016:

[quote] [bold] “If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed … and we will deserve it” [/bold]

I hope we can take the Senate this year, with or without Jones.

I hope this happens but

can someone explain

how could something happen in South Carolina where both Trump and Harrison win? I mean I know Trump polls more favorably than Graham but how many people would vote for Trump and Harrison? That doesn't make sense

I don't count on it. But I hope it is true.

Jones isn’t out of it. Don’t under estimate him. Though, we’ve long counted on not counting on this seat.

So which states do we think the Democrats are winning if the vote were held right now? I say AZ, CO, IA, ME, and NC (where the sex scandal hasn't moved the polls).

That should cover Dem losses in AL and MI if such are to be. With a little momentum we could also get SC, MT, GA (at least one), AK, and maybe even MS and TX. Then say hello to two new blue senators from DC!

R9, I would add Kansas to this list of possible pick-ups. Barbara Bollier, the Democratic nominee (who used to be a Repub), has been endorsed by former Republican Senator Nancy Kassebaum, for whom Bollier worked. Remember, in 2018 Kansas elected a Democratic Governor.

"Republicans are in DEEP SHIT."

If so, it's well earned.

AZ and CO are done. I don't see GOP holding those. ME is 99% Dem pick up. And it looks like NC is also about 80-90% as "sex scandal" did not appear to damage Cunningham at all.

I would say IA and MT are 50/50.

And everything else depends on how badly Trump performs in each of those states.

Today's Morning Consult polls look outstanding for most of them except for SC.

Thanks, R10, I should have included KS among the possibilities.

The Cook Political Report notes a leftward tilt in these Senate races:

I am praying for a Senate takeover but remained extremely cautious. If more Republican Governors take the route of Abbott in Texas (he won last night the 5th Circuit ruling and is gloating) or Republicans continue to do things like the ballot boxes in California, then I doubt if the Senate switches. Voter turnout with votes that are counted is critical.

Turnout is very important. But no matter what I really don't see this election ending well. Both sides appear to getting ready for a fight and it will be ugly. I am not sure what the outcome of all this will be. Likely the election will be decided on the streets.

Are shenanigans by Republican governors happening in AZ and IA? Democrats are governors in CO, ME, and NC. And MT.

Democrats see taking the Senate without Jones.

So you can shut up about him, r5.

Trump is anti-Iraq war, R6.

Graham was one of the biggest promoters of the Iraq war.

Graham also trashed Trump in 2016 before prostituting himself and the voters remember that.

Graham is also gay and many South Carolinians are learning about it for the first time.

Harrison and Trump both want economic stimulus and unemployment benefits. Graham is helping McConnell block it.

The polls show Ossof is taking Georgia, r9.

R15 is a right-wing fearmonger and propagandist.

The Democrats have all the momentum and enough gains to cover any losses.

The majority is pissed about these Supreme Court steals.

R16 is a very obvious Boris trying to incite doubt and a civil war.

His scenario is not going to happen and Trump-Putin don’t own the courts, which are going to shut them down.

thanks for starting a new thread

R22, which courts? Dems lost the courts.

Why did the first thread get greyed out?

Republicans don’t control the courts.

They don’t even control conservative judges.

R26, turn on your TV right now.

Doug Jones is thought to be a leading candidate to be AG under Biden.

If this all happens, the Democratic Majority needs to sharpen their elbows and become as aggressively unrelenting as the Republicans have been. This playing nice doesn’t work with the evilness of the Republicans.

From the 1st thread: this link allows you to either customize or allocate evenly donation

Lady G was crying about political donations this morning in his questioning at the Barret hearings. He really doesn't like the fact that people from all over the country who, as he rightly inferred, hate his guts are contributing to defeat him. He can't fight the world.

[quote] Doug Jones is thought to be a leading candidate to be AG under Biden.

Not if he keeps his Senate seat. Sally Yates is likely a strong contender for AG. So is Tony West, who is related to Kamala, and was in the DOJ leadership under Holder.

Mitch McTurtle fucking embarrassed himself in the debate. Laughing about Covid.....fuck you, Mitch.

Don't worry. The Russians will come through

R20 - you do know that if no candidate gets an outright 50% majority, the two top plurality ones (Ossoff and Purdue) go to a Dec runoff, which are skewed towards Republicans. Maybe.. just maybe... Warnock will bring more black voters for his runoff at the same time... we'll see.

R35, Ossoff and Perdue are running in a separate race from Warnock. Warnock's race (in which he's ahead with a plurality) is the one with multiple candidate from each party that goes to a runoff.

Both statewide races need 50% which is how Abrams ended up in a runoff two years ago.

But it always goes to a runoff between only two candidates who DON'T need 50%.

Ossoff and Perdue will face off in a runoff like Georgia's other senate seat because neither have ever polled above 50%.

It would be nice if Ossoff could just blow Perdue and the Libertarian Hazel right out-of-the-water on Nov. 3, especially because most of Hazel's voters are likely to switch to Perdue.

But that's unlikely. Let's just hope Ossoff wins the plurality on Nov. 3.

Miss Collins is going full negative! She's running scared! (And concerned.)

r39 = Just another daily example of how Republicans only have lies to run on.

R39, it will be interesting to see some new Senate polls for Maine.

Gideon +3.7 according to Real Clear.

Trump might get the Supreme Court to overturn the vote. If he does this we need a revolution to overthrow him and all who helped him do this including the Supreme Court.

Marine is gettin close. I hope Gideon has enough money.

Yes, Gideon seems to have a small edge, but 4-term Senators like Collins have a lot of incumbency advantage so it's still competitive.

A lot of the polling in Maine has been done by partisan Republican & Democratic pollsters, so what is needed now is more high-quality polling from the big pollsters.

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Monmouth poll released today

"The race for U.S. Senate has grown a little more favorable for the Democratic candidate since September, despite revelations of an extramarital entanglement."

Cunningham +5 in 'high turnout'

In NC about 10% of the total number of 2016 voters have already cast a vote. Many more registered Democrats than Republicans. Will the Republicans come out in force in the final stretch?

why have things tightened up in Maine? Back in August and September it seemed like Gideon had a runaway lead

R48, yes, it’s tightened quite a bit.

R46, despite revelations of an "extramarital entanglement," or BECAUSE of those revelations? Seriously, his support from male voters seems to have gone up.

Come on Maine, don't send Miss. Suzy Concerned back to the Senate!

Collins is the only repub senator left in New England. It would be so awesome to finally have her out and have a liberal sweep of the region

SEND ME MONEY!

Wow, Boris @ r43 is counting on a Supreme Court coup of the White House now.

You know the Republicans are as desperate as 200,000 Americans on ventilators now!

Sadly, the Democratic Senate will be able to impeach any Supreme Court that pulls any Trump shenanigans, as well as any illegitimate president.

This election isn't going to have to go to the Supreme Court. He is going to lose so badly there won't be any standing to fight. Roberts isn't going to go down with that ship.

He and Barr are hoping they can fuck with the electoral college, r55.

That they can make some sort of play to connive and conspire with each states electors to give him an electoral college win. I can't see that too many of these private citizens want to risk the wrath of furious voters by ignoring who their state voted for and instead throw the election to him

Those bitches were sniveling about receiving nasty emails from voters in 2016. They overturn the will of their states voters, they will have more than nasty emails to worry about.

I don't think they'd be stupid enough to do it, especially since they would be doxxed in a New York minute but some people are so arrogant they think they're untouchable.

If he or Barr makes that sort of play, I can see a huge push to completely eliminate the electoral college since it will be obvious it's a hindrance to fair elections.

But that's the play their hoping to make or pressure swing state secretaries of state to stop counting votes)throw out votes.

[quote]I don't think they'd be stupid enough to do it,

You underestimate them quite a bit.

r55 Totally agree. We're not complaining but it's like 45's trying to lose. As soon as FL's called for Biden, we can all let out a collective sigh

Yeah I can really see them going to these extremes of bribing or intimidating electors. This is a mobster government a la Russia or China. If they killed Epstein, and I believe they did, they will stop at nothing to get their way.

Really scary shit.

I hope there is some sort of plan B, because if there isn't, it's the end of democracy and America will become a shithole dictatorship.

Opinion

It’s Not Easy Being an Optimist in Maine

We have late-spring storms and high-stakes Senate races. But we also have lobster and Patty Griffin.

By Jennifer Finney Boylan

Contributing Opinion Writer

Oct. 14, 2020, 5:04 a.m. ET

The optimist, according to an old joke, believes that this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears that the optimist is right.

Mainers are accustomed to second-guessing good news. Which is what you’d do, too, if you’d experienced enough late-season ice storms. This year, over 200,000 of us lost power in the wake of a furious blizzard. In April.

Maybe this is what gives so many Mainers a dark turn of mind. There’s a story about the time Mark Twain gave a reading at a bookstore near Bangor, to a crowd that mostly sat there in stony silence. Afterward, Twain heard a couple talking. The wife said, “I think he might have been the funniest person I’ve heard in my life.”

The husband replied, “I’ll tell ya, he was so funny, it was all I could to do keep from laughing.”

Maine voters aren’t laughing this fall. Everything feels too high-stakes. Our Senate race — Senator Susan Collins versus the Maine House speaker, Sara Gideon — might well decide whether the Democrats take back that chamber.

But it’s not just the high stakes that have us on edge; it’s also the race itself. This month, the Wesleyan Media Project described the Maine Senate race as the most negative in the country. (One of the nicest of the negative ads says, “Gideon had her cake — and ate it too!”) A Bangor Daily News poll released last week found Ms. Gideon and Senator Collins within a single point of each other. Last month, in an act that one lawmaker called “political terrorism,” unknown persons in Bowdoinham burned a sculpture of a donkey. And over in Rockland, two police officers were fired after beating porcupines to death with their nightsticks.

The porcupine slayers don’t appear to have been politically motivated, but the story feels very 2020 to me. These are dark days, man.

Last Monday, in hopes of finding a little escape, my wife and I drove out to Acadia National Park, on Mount Desert Island. Our route took us through both of our state’s congressional districts — the reliably blue First, which went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and the rural and more conservative Second, which went for Donald Trump. I tried to get a sense of how the 2020 Maine vote is going to go by counting yard signs. My poll gave an edge to Joe Biden and Ms. Gideon — but just barely. (There was also one sign still up for Bernie Sanders, an act of defiance I found very on brand.)

A Trump-Pence sign in Trenton had been edited by someone with a can of spray paint; the candidates’ names had been overwritten with a big orange “$750” (the amount of taxes Mr. Trump paid in 2016).

As we drove toward the coast we also saw lots of ghosts and skeletons and gravestones, evidence that many Mainers take Halloween almost as seriously as Christmas. In one yard a pair of zombie hands rose out of a tomb. Not far away was a sign: “TRUMP.”

It was impossible, in looking at that display, not to wonder whether the president, too, might somehow rise from the near-dead. It’s happened before, of course. Four years ago — almost to the day — we were all reeling from the “grab them by the pussy” tape. How confident I was then that Americans would find this kind of talk repulsive! How sure I was that we were just weeks away from electing our first female president! I was wrong, of course.

The pessimist says, “Things can’t get any worse.” The optimist says, “Oh, yes they can!”

Things look better for Joe Biden now than they did for Hillary Clinton then, if you believe the polls anyhow. But then the Mainer in me remembers the six months of winter lurking beyond every summer day and those zombie hands crawling out of the ground.

In Acadia, Deedie and I rode our bikes through the sparkling autumn sunshine, drove our car up Cadillac Mountain, ate popovers and chowder at the Jordan Pond House. Later that night we settled into chairs at a Bar Harbor restaurant called Havana, where Deedie had seafood paella and I had the lobster moqueca, simmered in a coconut broth with haddock and red peppers. It was really good.

The next day we went down to Thunder Hole, a rock formation where the Atlantic crashes into a cavern. We sat down on a chunk of granite, two old people with our arms wrapped around each other, feeling the spray on our faces. We had been there together as a young couple 32 years ago. Now we were back.

The day before, Supreme Court Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas had issued a rant against marriage equality, which they called a “novel constitutional right” in defiance of religious liberty.

As we sat there by the sea, I felt a stranger’s eyes upon us. It was a look of disapproval I’m accustomed to by now, but it still hurts.

I wondered whether the coming election will decide not just the fate of the presidency and the Senate, but that of my marriage as well.

On the way home we passed a Unitarian church with a sign out front that said: “Defeat Hate. Vote Love.” On the radio we heard Patty Griffin singing “Mother of God.” Something as simple as boys and girls gets tossed all around and then lost in the world. Something as hard as a prayer on your back can wait a long time for an answer.

Patty Griffin is from Maine, too.

Deedie and I got back to Belgrade Lakes in time to watch the vice-presidential debate that night. The next morning I went outside to split some wood. The sky was blue from stem to stern, and as I stood in the dooryard, holding my ax, I felt a rush of good cheer. Could I trust the optimism I felt? Could it be that just this once, my hopes would not get crushed, as the saying goes, “flatter than a pounded hake”?

As I stood there by the woodpile I heard a sound. I looked over to see a porcupine emerging from the woods. He was the fastest porcupine I ever saw. If you didn’t know better, you’d think he had the whole Rockland police force chasing after him.

It was so funny, it was all I could do to keep from laughing.

Frank Bruni on SC.

BREAKING: New Montana State University poll of MT-SEN Bullock +2

If any Georgians are around, who seems weaker in December: Loeffler or Collins as the R candidate?

I think Bullock has the best chance of clinching that win out of all those tight red state senate races. He is a popular outgoing governor and Trump is not performing as well in the state. Also less opportunity for GOP shenanigans with voting process unlike in places like SC or Georgia.

I see your point R55. Roberts has a lifetime appointment along with the reputation that goes with it and he’s not gonna fuck that up with skewed loyalty to Presidents who come and go every four years.

That’s not to say that he won’t fuck it up. Anything could happen.

The court needs just 4 votes to take a case. If it's 6-3 after handmaid is confirmed, Roberts won't have a say.

Exactly

I don’t get these people trying to convince us the Courts are lost

r6 Until the early 2000s when partisanship really picked up, ticket splitting was a thing. It was always only about 20% of voters willing to do it but in many cases, people actually wanted divided government. Republicans picked up seats when Clinton was re-elected. Now people prefer one side having all the power

Here, R69

GOP done great job on the courts. Anyone trying to deny that is dangerously delusional. And now this election may hinge on those courts.

Democrats still aren’t nearly as worked up about courts as they should be

🚨Another post-scandal poll of NORTH CAROLINA form @UpshotNYT (change from 9/11-16):

Trump 42 (-2) Biden 46 (+1)

Senate Tillis (R-inc) 37 (-) Cunningham (D) 41 (-1)

Cunningham fav/unfav: 40/42 Tillis fav/unfav: 43/44

(LVs, Oct 9-13)

[quote]Presidents who come and go every four years

Oh, I think things will be much more stable from here on out.

Texas is going to go blue. 97% of eligible voters in Austin are registered to vote. Record breaking first day voting rallies in Harris County.

It is a truism of American politics that high voter turnout is bad for Republicans.

GET THE VOTE OUT

Ms. Lindsey is dripping .... sarcasm.

I'm waiting for election night when Miss Ladybug declares "you won't have my poosie to slap around anymore!"

WaPo: Republicans may already be laying the groundwork to try to destroy a Joe Biden presidency.

A GOP strategist who has been consulting with Senate campaigns said Republicans have been carefully laying the groundwork to restrain a Biden administration on federal spending and the budget deficit by talking up concerns about the price tag for another round of virus relief. The thinking, the strategist said, is that it would be very hard politically to agree on spending trillions more now and then in January suddenly embrace fiscal restraint.

They're going to have an especially hard time accomplishing that considering they won't hold the White House, the House, or the Senate.

[quote]The thinking is that it would be very hard politically to agree on spending trillions more now and then in January suddenly embrace fiscal restraint.

Yes, if the last four years has proved anything, it's that the Republicans are loath to put their hypocrisy on display for the entire world to see.

Ah R80, but the media will give them their deceitful soapbox, and then join in piling on the Democrats. Hello, Chuck Todd.

Take this one with a kilo of salt, but Quinnipiac's latest GA Senate numbers...

Ossoff (D) 51 Purdue (R) 45 He wins without runoff

Runoff inclinations for other seat:

Warnock (D) 56 Loeffler (R) 44

Warnock (D) 58 Collins (R) 42

Be sure Barrett will be the vote to strike down Social Security and Medicare. They’re going there. We need to pack the Senate with Dems.

Good interview of President Obama from today.

As I mentioned the other day, we should expect the Dems to pick up at least a few seats that no one was expecting them to win. This just feels like that kind of election.

So the Repukes can plot and plan to tank Biden’s presidency all they want, but they may find that is a tad difficult to do when #MoscowMitch is no longer in charge. And, if the Dems blow up the filibuster, the Repugs are going to find out just how boring and lonely it is to be in the minority. May they stay there forever.

“Few” is too big of a word for a Senate system that gives disproportionate representation to Deplorables.

With the surprises, the Democrats will get “a few” pickups total and gain control of the Senate.

The Michigan Senate race is tightening.

New Michigan Senate poll sees Peters leading James 45% to 39% ... but 11% undecided.

Leoffler is bragging about being endorsed by racist QAnon candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene. WTF?

Insider-trader Lœffler is gunning for the QAnon vote in increasingly blue Georgia. She's to the right of Attila the Hun, y'all!

NYT's poll today for South Carolina puts Lady G ahead by 6.

I'm going to unskew the SC poll (slightly) by pointing out that I feel Harrison will get more than 78% of the black vote.

r92 That's disconcerting. Not sure what else can be done for Harrison. I've donated to his bid more than any other senator's

I know the NYT is a reputable pollster, but is that SC poll an outlier?

Come on, DiFi, don't hug Typhoid MARY!

[quote] This just feels like that kind of election.

You sound as moronic as Trump.

If the Dems win the Senate, there's NO WAY Dianne Feinstein should be chair of the Judiciary Committee. She's been disgraceful.

Yeah, Feinstein would head the Judiciary Committee if Democrats win the Senate. And she's gunna make guns the number one issue. That's how you win middle America 🤦🏽‍♂️:

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who is poised to become chairwoman of the Senate Judiciary Committee if Democrats win the majority, sees guns as the No. 1 issue.

"It's guns," she said in an interview before the August recess. "That's my biggest concern."

-The Hill

- don't know why the article is being rejected. I tried tagging it on here but I couldn't. I put the title below if anyone wants to check it out.

Emboldened Democrats haggle over 2021 agenda

[quote] You sound as moronic as Trump.

Go fuck yourself. If you have closely been following elections for a while you can look at various factors to get a decent sense of how the election will turn out. So, yes, you dipshit, if you look at the polls, how fired up and enthusiastic voters are, raw numbers in terms of voter registration and early voting, and general political trends then yes, even you might be able to get an idea of which way the election is going. 🙄

*COLORADO*

Hickenlooper +11 in today's Civiqs poll:

*MAINE*

Gideon +7 in today's Pan Atlantic Research poll:

As a *generalization* these races tend to break one way, rather than half for each side. To me, it's encouraging that Ernst can't seem to close the deal in Iowa.

*ARIZONA*

Monmouth poll

Kelly leads McSally by 10 points in a high turnout scenario (52% to 42%) and 6 points in a low turnout scenario.

R99, I take the point that Feinstein is old and out of touch, but she does have cred with the gun issue.

Dianne Feinstein just showed that she is a dotty old biddy who is living in another time that doesn't exist any more. If she doesn't even understand that Lindsey Graham is a pariah, there is no help for her. She shouldn't even have run for re-election the last time. I hate that these old people just keep hanging on to power forever and don't know when to call it a career. Hopefully she will be like that other old codger, Grassley, and will step aside as the leader of the committee after the election. Seems like a good fit for Klobuchar to take over.

DiFi’s behavior during this hearing was despicable. We are in a fight for this country, and her making nice with the a Lady G was totally unnecessary and extremely unhelpful. This whole nomination is a con-job. Does anyone think that a Senator Adam Schiff or Senator Katie Porter would have said something this stupid and inane to the Senatrice:

[quote] "I just want to thank you. This has been one of the best set of hearings that I've participated in," she said. "Thank you so much for your leadership."

🙄 Ugh.

Step down lady. Thanks for your service. But make room for someone more in touch.

I'm not surprised she hugged La Senatrice. Diane Feinstein is one of the most talented legislators ever, who also had a lot of re-elections and the Queen's hair throughout her long, long, long career. Despite that she had a good justice committee attendance record, which is hard to find on Capitol Hill. At a time when gay senators were oppressed BEYOND BELIEF, they identified with her struggles and she theirs.

Lifelong Liberal Democrat here who voted for Obama twice AND Hillary, but all I see in my neighborhood are Trump signs! It's hopeless!

Why can't the Dems GET IT TOGETHER FOR ONCE?!

They just handed Trump four more years!

Behind the scenes there is probably a completely different picture. Remember when LG was caught on camera congratulating Adam Schiff on his impeachment speech. Maybe she knows Miss Lindsey is being blackmailed. I don't want to excuse her behavior, or his, just trying to understand what's going on behind all the scenes of crazy shit show.

Also, when hopefully all this is behind us and prosecutes shed some light on all the mobster deals the GOP was making with dictators while undermining western allies; one of the quotes that will not be forgotten is Miss Lindsey saying

"If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed... and we will deserve it!"

Mark my words, this quote will go down in history.

R60, she’s trying to show the deplorables that she is one of them lol. She has like a hundred million dollars.

McConnell sent the Republican in Montana $2 million today.

[quote]Lifelong Liberal Democrat here who voted for Obama twice AND Hillary, but

Do you have to attend some training class where they teach you this shtick?

It's a fucking PARODY of a troll's script.

I am worried about their blatant cheating and voter suppression tactics

So worried that it's not even worth voting, huh, R115?

That's why you had to pipe up with that CONCERN, huh, TROLL?

I hope the Senate turns but it probably won't. People do not know how evil the Senate is.

CNN:

More massive Dem fundraising: $26.8M in the last quarter for Steve Bullock in Montana

Hmmm. What if Graham is covid+ and infected Feinstein when she hugged him?

R119 Gavin will replace her with Katie Porter.

the republicans can just say they are sick and need time to recover. No on Coney Barrett.

I hope Donald Trump returns but probably he won't. People know how evil Trump is because he neglects COVID, takes Russian bribes and commits crime sprees in broad daylight.

Let's each bet $100, r117.

I'll put $100 into an online escrow account or betting site now against your $100 that Democrats won't win the Senate this year, which is just so "probable" to you.

Which vendor would you like to place your "probable" bet with?

r117 Man, you guys (or gals) have to try harder

Faced with a consistent stream of polls showing Sen. Cory Gardner headed for a loss next month, national Republican groups are spending far less in Colorado than in other battleground states this fall,” the Denver Post reports.

Said GOP pollster David Flaherty: “There is no reason for either side to put another dime into this state. It’s over.”

Maine debate. Gideon did well.

Joni Ernst flubbed in Iowa.

Doug Jones up by one point

[quote] I believe this is an internal poll for Doug Jones, but the word on the street has been that the Biden-Trump race there is single digits, which makes a closer Senate race plausible. Tuberville is a terrible candidate. Every Alabamian knows Jones is a great Senator. Quote Tweet

My opponent, GOP Sen. David Perdue of anti-Semitic attack ad infamy, just mocked Sen. Harris' name as "Kamala-mala-mala-whatever" at a Trump rally.

We are so much better than this.

Best one so far, r129.

R128

I've been around a gazillion political blocks in my time, so very little shocks me, but congratulations as that poll has succeeded in doing so!

It always rubbed me wrong that everyone automatically discounted Jones.

I wonder how MS is doing. Haven't seen latest polls but in late Aug, Espy was only down 1% from vile Cindy "I Wont Debate" Hyde-Smith

I think even on the bad side it's going to go to 51-49: AZ, ME, CO are locks, and at least 2 of NC and IA flips and MI hold looking likely.

Of the holy grail options, I think MT more in play than SC or the two GAs. Bullock is very well liked and less cheating up there. If all of those flip and Doug Jones holds then it's +9. Then you can tell Joe Manchin to fuck off.

Next are the dreams come true: MS, KS, TX, AK. Alas, no chance in KY; she's a terrible candidate. But dare to dream, a total collapse would be +14 and you can even keep the filibuster.

I've been telling you all from jump that Jones has a very good chance and not to count him out!

I have donated about $100 to his campaign.

He can pull this off, do not doubt! Especially if there is a high turnout.

Black women came out in big numbers for him before. They are even more highly motivated to turn out now that the orange fiend will be on the ballot.

This is a sleeper that everyone has written off.

Pretty huge. All moms talking about their sons, and how they dumped them.

Huh, R136?

What Senate race needs my donation most?

R134, McGrath's not a terrible candidate at all. That's why the race is competitive

The GOP is dead. They did this to themselves just for a power grab. #RIPGOP

R138 here

Good 538 podcast about the Senate today.

Also, thinking outside of the box at this point might not be a bad idea, R138. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is still seeking donations for Act Blue IMPACT SLATES TEAM--the less glamorous statehouse races that will determine control of some important redistricting battles.

[quote] My friend, Larry David, is not on social media (smart guy), but his message is correct (very smart guy).

[quote] Watch him right here and donate now to key races:

Senate

Any House of Representative seats that could flip blue?

Phil Ehr, R145?

[quote] Donate today to help me defeat... Rick Gates:

Thanks

R145, yes, Cook Political Report expects Democrats to hold their current margin in the House, and possibly pick up a few more seats.

Dems best chances for House pick ups are: NC-02, NC-06, GA-07, and TX-23.

There’s hope for college kids.

R141, Im only seeing Warnock, is that the race that most needs my $

This is an interesting thread. It occurs to me as a reminder to myself and others that no matter who wins, Americans need to grasp that politics is a hands on sport--we have to call, email, forget the online petitions, send actual letters and even travel to DC to confront our officials with what we want and expect. That is democracy and has been lacking for a long time. People power!

No, R141. Warnock is doing well financially and even has a slight lead--although not enough of a lead to avoid a runoff in January. Personally, I don't think he's going to pick up the 9 or10 points to avoid that, so being in the top two will have to suffice for now and we can turn our attention back to that race a little later.

I'll say that the three races that are the closest (and cheapest ad markets) are:

BARBARA BOLLIER vs. Roger Marshall -KS

MIKE ESPY vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith - MS

AL GROSS vs. Dan Sullivan - AK

But also, circling back to the previous thought; if you just want to play spoiler, you could donate to the Libertarian candidate in Arkansas. Ricky Dale Harrington, who is polling at 39% and has the hateful Tom Cotton down to 49%. If Harrington can keep him there or below, that race will also be forced into a runoff in January.

Doug Jones @DougJones

US Senate candidate, AL

It's true folks -- our latest poll has us winning this race by 1 point. It's going to be neck and neck until Election Day, and I could really use your help.

Don't forget Gary Peters in Michigan! He's only a few points ahead of his Republican challenger and it would be a disaster to lose his seat, so if you have money to burn send it his way.

There are good polls for Dem Dana Balter in upstate New York (around Syracuse) -- she lost the last time against the same scumbucket John Katko (R) but she's doing better polls-wise this time and Katko's being especially sleazy, I like her and hope she wins!

Peters and Jones are good men who deserve extra money and to hold their seats.

Thank you R152, I will direct my support there. I appreciate your insight.

More insight

R146, I gave some money to Rick Gaetz’s opponent! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Already mentioned last night but again for anyone who has a few bucks to spare this morning

After 36 years, Kentucky can do better than Mitch McConnell. We endorse Amy McGrath.

[quote] McConnell has made it perfectly clear that his only passion is the pursuit of power, his own and that of the Republican Party. For that reason alone, we would endorse his opponent. Luckily for voters, McGrath, a former fighter pilot and public servant, would make an excellent senator who would actually put the needs and interests of Kentuckians above her own.

[quote] McGrath has proven that she understands that Kentuckians are suffering from the failure to address the economic, educational and health care needs that have left the state at the bottom of most rankings during McConnell’s tenure, suffering that has only worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. She is a centrist Democrat who knows the good that government can do.

I would also suggest a donation to Col. Moe Davis, the progressive, pro-gay Democrat who is running against that pretty-boy idiot Madison Cawthorne. Davis has an exceptionally impressive resume as a lawyer and a judge in the military as well as a law professor.

Cawthorne has an empty resume other than being a huge tRump supporter. He was home-schooled and then when he went to college he flunked out with D grades in his first semester. He claims to own some sort of business, which has had one client. He’d be 25 when the Congress is seated immediately January.

He was injured in an automobile accident which has left him in a wheelchair. He claimed — falsely — that he was going to attend the Naval Academy, but was thwarted by the car accident. Turns out that was false. He had been rejected before the accident. He also has racked up some sexual harassment allegations. Oh, and he was thrilled to go to Germany to see Hitler’s bunker. It was on his bucket list and he referred to Hitler as the Führer. 🙄

This will not necessarily be an easy race to win — it was Mark Meadows’s seat before he became tRump’s CoS and NC is heavily gerrymandered — though the contrast between these two candidates could not be more stark. The debates were painful to watch because Cawthorne is clearly as dumb as a box of rocks and he was up against a seasoned and experienced prosecutor, professor, and judge. But it may now be competitive. This one would be a sweet victory.

Checking in from South Carolina. On the radio, I just heard a sneaky new ad campaign by Jaime Harrison. It highlights that Lindsey Graham voted for Obama's two supreme court justices (who are pro choice), then talks about how the libertarian candidate for Senate is lock step with Donald Trump. It ends with a note that the libertarian candidate is just too conservative for South Carolina.

Smart boy. If you can't win over those Graham diehards, pick off the edges and send them to the libertarians.

R162, I've donated to Moe. Cawthorne is an embarrassment.

Yeah but he's SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO hot!

Yeah, well, they can follow his IG. We don’t need to send him to Washington.

I want Moscow Mitch to go down, during his debate with Amy McGrath, Moscow Mitch would just sit there and chuckle when ever she would discuss healthcare.

Very impressed with Jaime Harrison!

Madison Cawthorne’s Twittes feed is astonishing. He’s an idiot, and every bit as narcissistic as Orange IT.

No amount of pretty can make up for that level of stupid.

IA - Joni Ernst fucked up majorly. IA is now in play for the Dems to pick up.

Mitch is going to win. He did horrible in his debate but that is Red country. At least it looks like he will lose control of the Senate.

R170 Some think he may resign when the Dems become the majority. Repug senators in NC and PA are retiring in 2022, will likely be competitive races at the least.

Yes, Mitch may win. Kentucky is a tough state for Democrats. We won the governor’s race in 2018 only because the Repuke was so dreadful. Bur we won no other statewide races.

Mitch will not, however, be the Majority Leader. He is nevertheless counting on screwing things up by exercising his filibuster rights. But that option may disappear. He is responsible for blowing up all the norms of the Senate thus far, so he shouldn’t be surprised if the Dems follow suit and ditch the filibuster, thereby robbing the Turtle from the ability to block Biden’s agenda.

And, yes, I know that it was Harry Reid who first started dismantling the filibuster by removing it for executive appointments and the lower federal courts. Why did he do that? Because Mitch was blocking so many of Obama’s nominees.

Update from Kentucky.

I was talking to my manager on Friday. I had gone for poll worker training on Thursday so took the day off work to attend and she was asking me about it. Then she says to me, "I guess I should vote in this election. I've never voted before but I think I should now."

She lives in Kentucky. Never voted. I told you all that only 30% of kentuckians vote. Her reasoning for not voting? "I'm not into politics".

I told her it doesn't matter. She needs to vote and I told her to visit the League of Women Voters website for ballot issues and who is running. Non partisan information.

She said she intends to vote and was glad she could visit a website for info instead of trying to read a ballot at the polling place.

It's amazing to me how many people don't think "politics" affects their quality of life. Especially in kentucky. Kentucky Democrats need to educate those people and get them engaged to vote.

Like they say, "I'm not into politics" but your boss and your landlord sure the fuck are

Des Moines Register endorses Theresa Greenfield:

(R173) But she probably voted for Dumpster.

She didn't vote in 2016, r176. And she hasn't voted yet. She said she has NEVER VOTED. Not sure what part of my post was unclear on that point.

There are tens of thousands of kentuckians who never vote. That was the whole point.

People keep asking, "why does Kentucky keep reelecting Rand fuckwit Paul and Moscow Mitch?" I just told you. Only around 30% of eligible voters actually VOTE. The rethugs have plenty of GOTV efforts and their fucking church cults make sure they vote. Dems don't have any ground game in Kentucky I'm aware of.

It should be a clue how badly Bevins was hated that he got the boot. He went after the teacher's union and they came for his ass.

Dems need to get a ground game going to get rid of these parasites like turtle, Paul, Cruz and a host of other useless eaters.

I hope there is a way to wake up Kentuckians because no one is looking out for their interests ( least of all McConnell himself). I would hasten to guess that a lot of average people has come to despise Kentucky. Someone needs to put a fire under their ass or there could be some bad repercussions.

#AZsen: Kelly (D) 52% (+11) McSally (R-inc) 41%

@YouGovAmerica/@CBSNewsPoll, LV, 10/13-16

(R173) I understood what you said. I do have reading comprehension skills. I meant that after you told her to vote, she probably cast her ballot for Dumpster.

538.

Geez, Nate looks like night and day with and without the beard/hat.

[quote] Geez, Nate looks like night and day with and without the beard/hat.

With the hat and beard he looks like he's trying too hard.

Without the hat and beard, trying too hard doesn't seem like such a bad idea...

Was that George Constanza? New job I see.

Nate silver is just not attractive AT ALL. I find myself drawn to his intelligence when I listen to the 538 podcast, but then I see him and.... Uf.

I'm linking to a website the SC Dems set up to "warn" about the libertarian candidate. Since yesterday, I've heard this ad multiple times. It's smart.

Jaime probably doesn't needs anymore of your money though. People on his Facebook posts are getting testy over the sheer number of ads they're seeing, which is probably part of the reason why they're switching ad focus.

Id love to see another Doug Jones poll.

I think Nate is kind of cute, but I have a major dork fetish.

I go to 538 all the time. Forget Nate Silver. Galen Druke has pretty eyes and cock-sucking lips.

Galen is gay too, right?

Gary peters needs money!

Galen Druke is quite gay.

R177 We got so close to getting rid of Cruz. So so close.

Washington Post:

In the 15 top Senate races, the Democrats' candidates raised $370 million. Republicans raised $150 million.

In 7 of the races, the Dem hopeful either quadrupled their GOP opponent or came very close.

Polls.

The Economist moved the Kansas race to a toss-up! There is momentum there.

NEW @RBIStrategies (B/C) Colorado poll October 12-16:

Biden 55% (+17) Trump 38% Jorgensen 4% Hawkins 2%

Hickenlooper 53% (+14) Gardner 39% Doane 2% Evans 1%

MOE +/- 4.37%

Old Patinkin Research Strategies (NR) Alaska poll Sept 30-Oct 4:

Biden 46%/Trump 49% (-3)

Gross 47%/Sullivan 46% (+1)

MOE +/- 4%

Ok I would like to know more about the Alaska poll that puts Gross up by 1. I've never seen any poll where he's close, let alone ahead.

[quote]Repug senators in NC and PA are retiring in 2022, will likely be competitive races at the least.

I saw some comments that the 2022 Senate election map is even more favorable to the Democrats. Hope that's true.

I want Rob Portman to be kicked in his shriveled pecker right to the curb.

He is the laziest, most useless piece of shit ever.

The Dems need to find some one NOW so that person can start building a team and getting their name out there. DO NOT WAIT!

Make that prick's life miserable for the next two years with relentless attacks. Make him want to GTFO and never return.

Article abut Rob Portman's missing testicles.

2018 built up a good GotV network for Democrats, 2020 seems to be sustaining and growing that, we can make it even bigger and more dominant in 2022.

[quote] Perdue’s mocking of Kamala Harris yields nearly $2M haul for his rival

*COLORADO*

YouGov poll

Released October 19, 2020

Hickenlooper +8

Hickenlooper (D) 48%

Gardner (R) 40%

GAsen: Perdue (R-inc) 46% (+1) Ossoff (D) 45%

@EmersonPolling/@NewsNationNow, LV, 10/17-19

#GAsen Runoff: Warnock (D) 48% (+1) Collins (R) 47% . Warnock (D) 47% (+5) Loeffler (R-inc) 42%

@EmersonPolling/@NewsNationNow, LV, 10/17-19

Wow. Georgia might really save America this year.

Regarding Georgia, it's pretty much a knowledged that the suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta now extend almost 100 miles. This is prime territory for Trump drop off.

I ❤️ Poll Troll

#ALsen: Jones (D-inc) 48% (+1) Tuberville (R) 47%

FM3 Research/@DougJones (D) Internal Poll, LV, 10/11-14 h

Im getting anxious about PA

Me too

Horribly close in NC

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the Iowa U.S. Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

Amazing performance by Warnock with every new poll out of Georgia.

Currently 9 point lead over the rest of the field and he beats both GOP challengers in a hypothetical run off by 4 points as per Sienna/NYT.

Ossoff is also getting more and more competitive. Currently tied with Perdue also from Sienna/NYT.

[quote]Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Pics please.

so how is the special Georgia race working? The Democrat has 2 repub challengers? I would think that really helps his chances as the 2 repubs split each other's vote? Is there a runoff if no one clears 50%?

Yes, runoff unless 50% for both races

There was another Dem in the Georgia Senate race (Lieberman) but he's not polling well now. Yes, there's a runoff later in the month between the top two; Warnock will obviously be the top Dem, but the top Repub isn't clear yet (Collins or Loeffler) - but Warnock is currently beating them both in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.

POLITICO's Burgess Everett:

Schumer: “I’ve had a long and serious talk with Sen. Feinstein. That’s all I’m going to say about it right now.”

The Senate runoff will on January 5, 2021

New Reuters IPSOS Swing State Numbers Michigan Biden up 51-44%, Peters up 50-45% North Carolina Biden up 49-46%, Senate tied at 47%

Of course there will be runoffs for both Georgia senate seats, as usual.

The good news is that Democratic candidates have the plurality and they’re defeating their crooked, Republican opponents in 1-to-1 matchups.

It's a bit worrying if the Georgia races go to a runoff as Democratic turnout will probably be down compared to the presidential election. Too many Democrats are sadly lazier with voting

#IASen Poll:

Greenfield (D) 48% Ernst (R-Inc) 43% Stewart (L) 5%

InsiderAdvantage (R) LV 10/18-10/19

And that is Democrats’ Problem

#COsen: Hickenlooper (D) 51% (+9) Gardner (R-inc) 42%

RMG Research/@ScottWRasmussen/@politicaliq, LV 10/9-15

MICHIGAN Biden 51% (+7) Trump 44% . NORTH CAROLINA Biden 49% (+3) Trump 46%

@Reuters/@Ipsos, LV, 10/14-20

President (Wisconsin)

Biden (D) 52% Trump (R) 44%

10/16-10/19 by Change Research (C-) LV

Arf! Did I do a good job?

Poll #133962 #ElectionTwitter

Oh please, take that cunt Ernst out...please.

I think Iowans are pissed after she didn't know the price of soybeans lol her opponent knew all about corn when they asked her. Ernst then tried copying her answer for corn as if they hadn't asked her about soybeans. It was a bizarre exchange that went viral. Then she ultimately said maybe she couldn't hear them. Pathetic childish lying on her part

I think Iowans are pissed after she didn't know the price of soybeans lol her opponent knew all about corn when they asked her. Ernst then tried copying her answer for corn as if they hadn't asked her about soybeans. It was a bizarre exchange that went viral. Then she ultimately said maybe she couldn't hear them. Pathetic childish lying on her part

Harrison pulls ahead of La Senatrice in Brilliant Corners and Research Poll:

SOUTH CAROLINA:

HARRISON: 47% GRAHAM: 45%

Data for Progress also puts Jaime Harrison ahead:

SOUTH CAROLINA:

HARRISON: 47% GRAHAM: 46%

Will the Senatrice be forced to accept paying callers to her fainting couch if she loses?

Like La Collins, I am concerned.

I would love it if Graham got so scared by the polls that he slowed down the Amy Comey Barrett nomination for Supreme Court. It would serve him right ... he will push it through and then cry on election night when he loses.

He thinks he's accepted, but right wingers mock him.

Lindsey Graham signs going up here in South Carolina now have #filltheseat on them. I wanted to pull over and rip them out.

R237 - Ugh. Guess we'll have to make signs that say: #balancethebench

The confirmation of Covid Amy will be over by Election Day.

Lindsey Graham signs going up here in Charleston as La Senatrice and I bundle five Graham yard sign stakes together and bang out our holes on either side like a double-edged dildo.

SERENITY NOW!

Have you felt like screaming that again and again this Election Season?

Well, come restore your sanity with my Seinfeld buddies in the fight to #TurnTexasBlue!

We’re spilling all the dirt on our favorite episodes - grab your spot here:

Senate (Minnesota) Smith (D) 54% Lewis (R) 43% Steinberg (O) 1% O'Connor (O) 1% 10/17-10/20 by Civiqs (B/C) 840 LV

Miz Lindz's MAGAettes?

Bottoms up, gentlemen.

Well. the women in R 243's photo certainly would fill, even overflow, a seat. They could have held a sign that read ," Fill the bench," and their asses would be able to accommodate that, also.

HuffPo: A massive $90M+ haul from McConnell’s super PAC has alarmed Senate Democrats, who are warning they are being outspent in four key states and are trying to fight off small-dollar donor complacency.

[quote]Republicans are set to outspend Democrats on TV in four key Senate races: Michigan...; Georgia...; Kansas...; and in South Carolina....

Um, excuse me, anywhere else ...?

Does billionaire Steyer ever lend his money? We know Bloomberg has spent $100 million to help Biden in Florida. Steyer could really help with the Senate if he wanted...

Except for Michigan, which they are feeling they can flip. The others are actually bad news for GOP. They were not supposed to spend anything at all there. All gins are pointing toward at least two of those GOP seats flipping which was not the plan.

[quote] All gins are pointing toward at least two of those GOP seats flipping

Which means I'll need another gin, Roscoe! Straight up!

Danger! Danger! A Survey USA poll in Minnesota puts Tina Smith only one point ahead of the Republican. It might be an outlier poll because she's generally been running several points ahead, but still - if you're looking for a race to spend money on, you might consider hers.

R252, you convinced me. Just sent Tina Smith some $$$

Weird that Doug Collins thinks having these guys on his side is something to brag about....

That’s parody, right R254???

Good god!

As someone asked on Twitter: “how many felons are on that list?” 😂😂

#NEW South Carolina Poll:

Harrison (D) 47% Graham (R-Inc) 45%

@MorningConsult

10/11-10/20, LV

#MNsen Poll: Smith (D-inc) 43% (+1) Lewis (R) 42%

@surveyusa

#MNsen Poll: Smith (D-inc) 43% (+1) Lewis (R) 42%

@surveyusa

@MorningConsult @LindseyGrahamSC @harrisonjaime @SenhorRaposa Harrison still has room to grow with younger voters (7.7% voting for third party, 11% with no opinion), Independents (7.9% for 3rd party, 13.3% with no opinion), Gen Xers (7% 3rd party, 10.2% no opinion), moderates (10% no opinion), Urban voters (9% no opinion)

^ Beulah, pass me the smelling salts!!!!

Miss Lindsey fears debating Jamie Harrison again. She's canceled on the last debate and is running to Dianne Feinstein for more hugs.

What the heck, Feinstein?

I actually want Aunt Lindsypat to lose by a whisker... it will burn that much more. I don't dare it's 10 votes or a hundred... but narrow enough he was live with how close it was.

Well, she is refined and eloquent.

*NORTH CAROLINA*

Morning Consult

Cunningham +6

Cunningham (D) 48%

Tillis (R) 42%

[Likely Voters, Oct 11-20, 2020]

Poll Troll, do you post under your name in nonpolitical threads?

Lindsey Graham pleads for money again on Fox. This time it is with "Fox and Friends".

Sounds as if this is another campaign finance violation by LG. But Fox/NewsCorp,owned by the Murdochs, apparently don't care about rules, ethics, and fairness.

Doesn't Lindsay have PAC and/or McConnell money? Why is he whining?

I don't know why but I find Poll Troll fucking hot. I know nothing about him except he posts polls but man would I like to spend some time on his.

I heart you, Poll Troll.

R266, I do sometimes post on the celebrity threads, but I don't always use my name.

R269, thanks very much. 😉

*IOWA*

RMG Research poll

Greenfield +3

Greenfield (D) 46%

Ernst (R) 43%

[Likely Voters, Oct 15-21, 2020]

Too close

#AZsen: McSally (R-inc) 49% (+2) Kelly (D) 47%

Basswood Research/@AAF (R), LV, 10/3-5

R273, that’s an outlier, and it’s also from October 3.

538 has three Arizona polls up today, and they all have Biden and Kelly losing.

Has something dramatically shifted in that race?

How can you even find it r275. That website is so confusing.

Nevermind. I read the polls more carefully. I keep forgetting that Susquehanna skews r.

R277 and the other two are Basswood, one of them from August.

Arizona

Did nid realize it tightened this much. Margin of error.

R279, those are pretty mediocre pollsters. I would be skeptical.

Poor Lindsey - even Lou Dobbs is dumping on him

Iowa has me reaching for my smelling salts. I so want to see Ernst sent packing. And not just for her hairstyle.

I feel so sad about these tightening races. WTF is wrong with people? I mean, come on (man ;) But this has to end. Christ, it's just got to end!

I think Trump will ultimately win. I voted for Biden, did my part, but I'm already prepared for the inevitable. This country is a fucking disgrace and has been for a long, long time. Republicans are in no position to ever criticize a Democrat after this monstrosity.

More polls for me!

The corporate media wants a horserace. Did the same in 2016. Predicted. Grow the audience. Sell more pricey ads.

[quote] Just arrived at @Morehouse College to welcome @KamalaHarris !

I find this nameless twitter user's comment quite plausible:

Hudson River Croc @HudsonRiverCroc

He talks to Trump daily, this is coming from Donnie. He wants some swift action from Lindsey regarding Biden and the presidential race.

Who is he referring to, r288? Ghouliani?

Cindy Hyde-Smith is an embarrassment. Send some $$$ to Mike Espy if you can

Spoke to someone who is privy to internal polling and the Senate is still up for grabs. We have a very tight race in Michigan and in Alabama. Both Democratic incumbents are trying to hang on to their seats. We can't afford to lose either one.

We will definitely pick up a seat in Maine. Collins is dead in the water. Gideon will win. It looks good for Mark Kelly in Arizona beating McSally. But the wish list gets pretty short after that. Mike Espy in Mississippi? Jaime Harrison in South Carolina? McGrath in Kentucky? All longshots at best.

Cunningham against Tillis in North Carolina looks like a strong possibility. The two seats in Georgia look interesting. Those races are as tight as a virgin's asshole. Ossoff and Perdue are virtually tied. Warnock is slightly favored over Loeffler.

IMO, best case scenario: We hold on to our two incumbents who are in trouble. We win Maine and Arizona. and we gain a seat in Georgia, and North Carolina So we pick up three possibly four. No. I don't expect miracles.

We would need such an overwhelming turnout there would be no Republicans left standing. Now I would love it. Absolutely. But I don't think it's happening. I just want to unseat McConnell as majority leader. We can't elect a Democratic PResident and have McConnell still running his game in the Senate.

I think the only way we can get r id of McConnell is through an act of God. Beshears is a Democrat. If McConnell 's seat were vacant, he would appoint a Democrat.

R288, it's about Lou Dobbs shivving Miss Lindz on Fox News.

People are speculating that Lou's tirade is on Cheeto's orders, to pressure Linsday into orchestrating an October surprise investigation in Senate Judiciary against the Bidens.

^^Oops, this was meant for R289

R291, don't forget Colorado. That's the strongest chance for a Democratic pickup.

Yeah I don't think r291 assessed this properly. Besides forgetting Colorado, a virtual lock, he also completely ignores Iowa, where Greenfield has a good chance, and also Montana, which is more of a stretch but still viable, certainly more so than Mississippi or Kentucky, real reaches. Two better long shots than those should also be added --Kansas and Alaska.

Furthermore, describing the Alabama race as tight and can't lose for Dems is inaccurate. Jones seat has sadly been an expected loss for Dems, with the chance of his pulling it out a definite long shot.

If we lose Alabama as expected, but keep Michigan and win Maine, Arizona, NC and just one of either Iowa or Georgia, that's 51 seats. If we can pull off just one upset in the 8 or 9 remaining contests where that is possible, that's an additional seat . I think of all of those, Montana is the most viable and Kentucky sadly the least.

AL is discounted from all pollsters projections as GOP pick up. So no. KY was never gonna happen. Indeed CO is completely omitted from your analysis so is IA. MIC is tighter than it should be, so is MN for some reason.

I was just discussing the ones I could remember off the top of my head. It was incomplete, but I do stand by it. I don't think we should give up on Alabama. Jones pulled ahead. Not by much but he has. It's a virtual tie.I did forget about Bullock and Hickenlooper, though so thanks for adding them. Look I want to get to 51 as much as anyone. And I would love to get rid of Lindsey all together even as I would give up my first born son to get rid of McConnell.

Per this article from yesterday, Tommy Tuberville has a very comfortable lead against Doug Jones.

Tommy Tuberville is a joke. Sessions is a slimy piece of shit but at least he had political experience and an IQ over 10

[quote]I think the only way we can get r id of McConnell is through an act of God. Beshears is a Democrat. If McConnell 's seat were vacant, he would appoint a Democrat.

This might make me consider praying.

{sexy, southern voice}

NEW: Trump privately tells donors it will be “very tough” for the GOP to hold the Senate.

“I don’t want to help some of them”

That's the spirit, Donny!

Can you please post the text of the article for those of us who dont subscribe to the Washington Post?

Look at Dump talking about having a soul.

Here you go r304. Pt1

resident Trump privately told donors this past week that it will be “very tough” for Republicans to keep control of the Senate in the upcoming election because some of the party’s senators are candidates he cannot support.

“I think the Senate is tough actually. The Senate is very tough,” Trump said at a fundraiser Thursday at the Nashville Marriott, according to an attendee. “There are a couple senators I can’t really get involved in. I just can’t do it. You lose your soul if you do. I can’t help some of them. I don’t want to help some of them.”

The attendee shared the president’s words on the condition of anonymity as the event was a closed-door gathering. It was held before the last presidential debate between Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.

Pt 2

The president — in a sentiment not shared by many of his party’s top officials and strategists — said he instead thinks the Republicans “are going to take back the House.” And many strategists involved in Senate races say the party’s chances at keeping the chamber are undermined by the president’s unscripted, divisive rhetoric and his low poll numbers in key states.

Senate Republicans have known for days that the probability of the party losing control of the upper chamber has increased drastically, with even Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) pegging his bid to keep power as “50-50” in a recent radio interview. Some strategists say that between Trump’s fumbled response to the pandemic, which has left at least 224,000 Americans dead, his disastrous first debate performance, and the White House’s rash of coronavirus infections, the battlefield continues to shift in favor of the Democrats — and that Trump has not always been helpful.

Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, pushed back on the notion that Trump doesn’t support some Senate Republicans.

“The Republican-led Senate and President Trump have had a great partnership over the last four years, highlighted by the fact the chamber is poised to confirm a third Trump Supreme Count nominee in the coming days,” Hunt said Saturday. “Nancy Pelosi has turned the House into a liberal nightmare and if Chuck Schumer gets control of the Senate, he’ll do the same thing.”

Pt 3

Republicans hold a 53-to-47 majority. Democrats need to gain three seats if Biden wins the presidency to claim Senate control. Initially, Republicans had broken down their map into two tiers. Their front line most vulnerable members are Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Martha McSally of Arizona and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Democrats and Republicans recently cut spending in Colorado, considered a likely win for former Democratic governor John Hickenlooper.

The second line, which Republicans used to refer to as their “firewall,” is Sens. Joni Ernst in Iowa, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler in Georgia, and Steve Daines in Montana.

But even the GOP’s “firewall” has started to crumble, with Republicans all but sure that they’ll be competing to win runoffs in Georgia in January, for example. Additionally, Republicans suddenly find themselves scrambling to save once safe seats, including top Trump ally Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.), who is being vastly outraised by Democratic opponent Jaime Harrison. Graham is still expected to win, according to South Carolina political observers.

Pt. 4

The Republican Party’s donors have rallied in some places to try to save the Senate, fearful of a Democratic Party that controls the House, Senate and White House. “Donors are increasingly alarmed that we might lose the Senate,” said Dan Eberhart, a donor who has given to an array of candidates over the years. With Democrats vastly outraising their GOP incumbents across the nation, its seems an increasingly tough battle for Republicans. Even a late-breaking scandal enveloping one Democratic candidate, Cal Cunningham, has not doomed his candidacy; most North Carolina voters view the seat as the tipping point for Senate control. Earlier this month, Cunningham acknowledged sending sexually suggestive texts to a woman who was not his wife. A second report revealing infidelity by the Iraq War veteran, who has held himself up as a moral leader, has taken a toll on his personal favorability ratings. Trump expressed optimism for Tillis’s chances in North Carolina. “I think Tillis is getting back in this one because his opponent ended up having more affairs than you’re allowed to have at one time,” Trump said. In N.C., voters call Cunningham’s infidelity reckless, shocking. They still vote for the Democrat. Trump also said he was pleased with Tommy Tuberville’s chances in Alabama against Sen. Doug Jones (D). Republicans and Democrats expect the Republican to win the seat in the GOP-leaning state. “We’re going to take Alabama. We got rid of Jeff Sessions. Thank goodness. He was the worst. I would have gone for the Democrat over him. That wouldn’t have been too good,” Trump said, before shifting to his mock TV anchor voice. “The president has just endorsed a Democrat.” He never named Tuberville and indicated he did not know a lot about him, focusing on his football history. Tuberville has been the head coach at the University of Mississippi, Auburn, Texas Tech and the University of Cincinnati.

Pt 5 (sorry for the formatting for pt 4)

“You have a really good coach, a really great coach actually. Urban Meyer said not only would he be a good politician, he was a great coach. He’s the only one who beat Urban Meyer twice. That’s pretty good. We should call him sometime soon.” Meyer also has had a long career in college football and was head coach at Ohio State.

Republicans face major head winds in final stretch to maintain Senate majority Trump said he has been “working and calling and tweeting” for some members. Some senators have increasingly distanced themselves from Trump and his incendiary rhetoric in recent weeks.

McSally recently was evasive at a debate when she was asked about whether she is proud of her support for Trump. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) offered muted criticism of Trump’s handling of the pandemic, saying he “let his guard down” and “got out over his skis” by playing down the threat of the coronavirus.

The harshest criticism came from Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) who in a call with constituents said Trump mistreats women, flirts with White supremacy and secretly mocks evangelicals. In response, Trump lashed out at Sasse.

Not a single House Republican is predicting the party will gain seats Nov. 3. Rather, the House GOP conference is bracing for a possible internal fight over leadership if they lose seats to Democrats. GOP leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), in a recent Politico interview, tried to suggest that it wouldn’t be his fault if Pelosi (D-Calif.), the House speaker, were able to expand her majority. Other lawmakers are privately discussing whether someone should challenge McCarthy for failing to distinguish House Republicans from the top of the ticket.

At the fundraiser, Trump lamented that he could not send federal forces into some of the cities that were racked by violence and protests this summer.

Pt 6 (final)

“Unless it’s a strict emergency, we’re not allowed to go in. We’re going to find more and more emergencies,” Trump said.

Trump also bashed the news media, Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Calif.), the House Intelligence Committee chairman who led the impeachment investigation of Trump, and the obsession from some Democrats with discussing Russian disinformation — comments that closely aligned with what he has said recently at public rallies.

There were no tough questions, the attendee said. Trump was lavishly praised by those present for his work on the coronavirus pandemic, and his effort taking on the “medical swamp,” in the words of one guest.

Tickets for the private fundraiser went for up to $250,000.

Thank you very much for posting that

Kansas and Alaska, not gonna happen.

R130, lol at Republican donors talking about the "medical swamp." Because science is evil!

@SenhorRaposa If the Ds can get to 54 seats the senate is basically safe in 2022, probably guaranteeing them 4 years of judges.

R314, I think of the turnout is as good as we hope it is, we should reach that milestone. We still have to address the Supreme Court though.

So these states still remain our top 4:

[bold]Arizona + Maine + Colorado + North Carolina[/bold]

...and our possibilities to expand our pick up list has expanded since last month: Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina, Georgia (+2), Mississippi, and Montana. Our chances are looking great as long as we keep those top 4 in our corner.

If Republicans wanted to keep the Senate, they should have stood up to Trump's bullshit four years ago.

The Senate has been falling to Democrats in polls for four years, so trying to buy ads out of their mess is way too little, way too late.

IT'S CHARACTER AND INTEGRITY, STUPID!

Call me optimistic, but I feel we have a great chance to flip 3 more seats (apart from the 4 seats we are poised to pick up)

Iowa seems like the next sure thing. We could pick up 5 seats (at the very least) which is all we need to have the majority, assuming Doug Jones(D) loses Alabama like the polls are showing. BTW, how awful is Alabama ? We [barely] won that seat because the Republican was a known pedophile. Awful that they had to be shamed into not voting for the pedophile sheriff.

Surprise us Alabama. Show us you have a soul and keep Doug Jones!

R316, Michigan is the opposite of a pickup chance for Democrats. Peters - the Democratic incumbent - is at risk of losing his seat.

Mayday in Michigan

Odds are that Peters will hang on in Michigan. He's still ahead in the polls, plus if Biden wins Michigan as expected, Peters will likely win the Senate race. Only a small percentage of voters split their tickets these days.

John James is only competitive with Peters because he's black.

Most voters will find out he's a Republican and realize color is only skin-deep and stick with Peters.

Iowa's shift to Biden spells D-O-O-M for Ernst!

Peters should be continuously running that clip of James looking totally flummoxed by the question of what he would propose as a replacement should Obamacare be struck down — with James having just goaded the moderator into asking him that very question.

FiveThirty-eight shouldn't even be bothering with D- analytic firms.

McSally's team bulled a VERY dirty trick on Kelly, they distributed a photo purporting to show Kelly dressed as Hitler at a Halloween party in the 1980s. Three of Kelly's fellow soldiers denounced the claim. So childish, so dirty, so Republican.

If you want to, write some pro-Kelly comments on this article.

Trump stans are desperate

IA is a definitive Dem pick up I say. I also think one of the GA seats will go Dem in the inevitable run off.

It takes a special kind of cunt to pull that stunt.

At her best she is still trailing Kelly by 9 points.

Trump has privately told donors at a Nashville, Tenn., fundraiser that he thinks it will be “very tough” for Republicans to keep their majority in the Senate

“I think the Senate is tough actually. The Senate is very tough..There are a couple senators I can’t really get involved in. I just can’t do it. You lose your soul if you do. I can’t help some of them. I don’t want to help some of them.”

Actually, some polls that were released yesterday show McSally being very competitive.

[quote] Odds are that Peters will hang on in Michigan. He's still ahead in the polls, plus if Biden wins Michigan as expected, Peters will likely win the Senate race. Only a small percentage of voters split their tickets these days.

Isn't Peters rated as one of the most effective senators? I get the sense that part of his problem is the same thing that is his best advantage: he's hardworking but low wattage.

That effectiveness would be be motivation enough for the GOP to target him as viciously as they have. But also, aside from James' viral healthcare blip, he comes across as a well spoken, classically handsome, West Point grad who would be the perfect foil for them to have on MSNBC every day to counteract Slayer Pete on Fox. It's like they are trying to install as spokesperson and could care less about Michigan having a senator.

Hopefully the voters will see through that.

On the other hand, Poll Troll, isn't there a faction of people who are slavishly devoted to divided government/checks and balances who stake one side based on passion and then vote for the oppositional party on principle? I know (but don't like) a couple of old money "intellectuals" like this. Are they not very common?

I think you are getting overconfident r328. Iowa is far from a lock and needs to be fought for.

The Dems taking control of the Senate is far from a lock. I give us Colorado, Arizona and Maine.

But we need Iowa or North Carolina or something and none of those are locks. The Senate is very much a contest.

Those new Arizona polls by Basswood Research are suspect. The A/B rating firms all give Kelly a commanding lead. Basswood only appears this one time in the Arizona 538 timeline. They appear to be plants more than anything.

Re Iowa, yeah I think Iowa could be the 5th pick up. Crossing my fingers for Kansas, one of Georgia, and South Carolina. What's going on with Montana. It seems like we have a shot there but very little is reported on Montana.

Boris thinks his Bombshell Montage will save Republicans in the Senate.

Sadly, they can't carry all of theirs and Trump's cumulative scandals past Nov. 3. Shitler's white trash army of suckers thinks they're immune to Real News, so they're in for a big surprise in just 10 days.

It's as if they didn't notice they lost the House of Representatives in 2018.

2 of VP Pence’s aides, including Chief of Staff Marc Short has just tested positive for COVID19.

Hopefully, Mother will be POZ

Agreed. Those Farmtrolls are a too late in the game to make any impact. Too much is known about the Trump administration and Covid mishandling to ever work against Biden.

Plus they are so obvious everyone knows they are just bots.

Is Lisa Murkowski up for re-election this year? Because she just reversed herself and now she will vote to confirm Barrett. Please, can we kick this treacherous flip flop ass from the Senate.

Next cycle, r339. Republicans didn’t just surge in one or two election cycles. They are relentless and had a plan. Democrats were so busy assessing each others’ purity that they couldn’t be bothered to stop Republicans.

I’m very disappointed in Lisa Murkowski. I thought she might stand up for principle. I really did.

Why would any Republican not vote to confirm Amy? This is what they have dreamed of and worked hard for decades? They will have a solid rightwing Court for most of the rest of this century with her, so why would they block that? They are shrewdly acting to maximum power at every turn. It’s ridiculous to expect them to do anything different.

I posted this before and I still don't know why Biden (or Harris as his surrogate) doesn't just say: Amy Handmaid Barrett should decline the nomination or at least request it be postponed until after the next president is sworn in - her nomination has been tainted.

Just throw it out there. Throw her under the bus. Expose her. Expose Republicans. Force them to really defend themselves against a clear position.

I shudder whenever Biden says he'll reach across the aisle. I sure hope he's just saying this to steal away soft Repugs. Why do I feel Biden will crap out in us once he's in? He has to appoint people who take no shit from anyone. I just heard on the news that Sanders would agree to be the Labor secretary...

I think you're going to have to put up with some of that, R344. I think bipartisanship is in his DNA. It's one of the things that's him... same with not attacking Trump's kids. He is determined kids are off limits. It's who he is.

Remember, though, it's quite likely bipartisanship won't matter a lot because we've got all three.

He has to reach out to Republicans in order to set himself apart from Trump. If Biden was equally as stupid and partisan as Trump is, many voters would stay home and Trump would win again. So shut up about Biden reaching out to Republicans, because it's going to help him win, dammit!

Amen. And until leftist and progressives vote with the rabid dedication and reliability of conservatives, Democrats must reach out to centrists and Republicans to win and govern. Leftists don’t know how to win

Georgia Senate Polling:

Perdue (R): 47% (-) Ossoff (D): 46% (+4)

CBS/YouGov / October 23, 2020 / n=1090 / Online

(% chg w Sept 25)

North Carolina Senate Polling:

Cunningham (D): 49% (+1) Tillis (R): 43% (+5)

CBS/YouGov / October 23, 2020 / n=1213 / Online

(% chg w Sept 25)

Legitimate polling has DOug Jones one or two points ahead. But IMO that's like a tie. So we really need to help. Money, phone calls etc. to get out the vote. I'm hoping the Black Vote in Alabama will get him thru, but even as we speak, Alabama is in court enacting more and more suppression bullshit. So overwhelming turnout is the only way.

Michigan Polling:

Presidential: Biden (D): 55% (+4) Trump (R): 42% (-)

Senate: Peters (D): 52% (+3) James (R): 41% (+2)

Gravis / October 24, 2020 / n=679 / MOE 3.8% / IVR

(% chg w July 22)

Link, please, R350.

Cal would win in a landslide if not for his stupid scandal

Hopefully Murkowski will get Collins'd in 2022. Well, I'm getting ahead of myself but I feel confident that Sue (who won by 37 points in 2014!) is going down this year.

The funny thing is if Collins had just voted more like an Independent all these years she'd probably be fine. Look at Angus King, who isn't quite a Democrat.

Massive miscalculation on her part.

[quote] Mitch McConnell’s allies have poured $25+ million into our race. And that can buy a lot — but apparently not new actors. Or maybe he and the D.C. elite just can't find Kansans (or Iowans) who agree with their talking points.

[quote]I just heard on the news that Sanders would agree to be the Labor secretary...

There was no offer, he suggested that himself. Aparently he only heard crickets from Joe because a few days later BS said he would primary Joe in 2022.

BS has been a Russian stooge all his life! The US will only benefit when he finally croaks!

BS won’t be picked for a cabinet position because VT inexplicably has republican Gov who would fill his seat with a republican.

R358, I think you might be a Russian stooge, you seem to not know how our government works in the USA.

I'm going to donate some more money to the Kansas, Texas, and Montana Senate races.

R3599 I think you meant r357, not r358.

R357, there’s no presidential primary in ‘22. And in any case I don’t see these near octogenarians running for president again.

BS won't run again in 2024 (or 2022). He will be over 80 by then and even he will realize by then that is TOO DAMN OLD.

r363 Bernie is not up for re-election in '22. Are you suggesting he won't run for President or for Senator in '24?

Bernie Sanders Doesn’t Rule Out 2024 Primary Challenge to Joe Biden or Kamala Harris

I'm sorry, but this just makes Bernie look ridiculous.

Dear Bernie,

Pat Paulson was better at this.

xoxo,

r347 = Top 10 Nominees for Most Desperate Right-Wing lie of 2020.

All this "commies are coming to burn down your city, install absolute socialism and take away your job!" As if Trump hasn't flushed hundreds of thousands of jobs straight down the shitter.

Sad that you only have lies, threats and ballot sabotage, Boris. You're DONE.

R360 based on what?

Send money to the southeast states like NC, GA and FL.

Add in PA, WI and IA for good measure.

Bernie Fucking Sanders is probably trying to make some backroom deals with Biden, like if you give me a job, I will keep quiet and not disrupt. These unicorn socialists are like the pest. I hope he croaks soon!

And no I am not sorry for saying this!

Bernie Fucking Sanders is probably trying to make some backroom deals with Biden, like if you give me a job, I will keep quiet and not disrupt. These unicorn socialists are like the pest. I hope he croaks soon!

And no I am not sorry for saying this!

r367 So was Gracie Allen

Keep up, R369; you obviously don't know what you are talking about. Florida doesn't even HAVE an open senate seat. Cunningham already has enough money in NC, and the two Georgia races will both go to run-offs anyway so money is a waste on them until the January run-off. Kansas and Montana are definitely seats within reach (but I doubt Texas is). Pennsylvania and Wisconsin also, like Florida, don't have any open senate seats. Iowa does and that race is also close.

According to LeanTossup, Ossoff might pull a 50%

So do people campaign in advance of a runoff or do you just sort of do it again?

Why are the double posters so often the stupidest posters?

Bernie Sanders is a good man and a good senator. He will be around for many years - as a senator. He is not leaving the Senate. He is not getting a Cabinet post. If he runs for POTUS again, please God no, then he will lose and be humiliated again.

At some point, he and his followers (as well as those who merely pretend to be his followers) will have to accept that Bernie is a closed chapter as a presidential candidate.

r370 = a bona fide, non-English-speaking Boris in a foreign troll farm just typing his scripted propaganda with a few of his detractors' words mixed in.

He makes no sense and he can't keep up with a debate in real-time, much less win one. He doesn't even understand what the English speakers are saying here.

There's nothing for Bernie Sanders to be ashamed of in running for president twice. He came very close to winning and he's right on more issues than Biden.

What have you ever done, r376? What office do you hold? How far will you go to defend your principles? Since when do we fault anyone for taking their best shot in America?

Who cares what YOU think?

I donated that Jaime Harrison's campaign last week, and today I have received, no word of a lie, at least 10 emails from him begging for money.

For somebody who has the most well funded Senate campaign in history, it's leaving a really bad taste in my mouth

And as I was typing that, I got another one. At 2:20 am.

I know. It is so irratating but all the canidates do the same. Just unsubscribe from his email list.

Republican Senators Are Plotting Against Donald Trump In Case He Refuses To Leave Office, Carl Bernstein Says

“There are about 6,8,10 members of the Senate, Republicans in the Senate who are talking with each other about how to restrain what they regard as an out-of-control, almost madman — to use the term of one of those senators — who is determined to do anything to hold on to office regardless of its legality. Regardless of how far it crosses lines that are unthinkable, in terms of authoritarianism.”

R382 Yes, after they’ve allowed him to get this far. How brave....

"For somebody who has the most well funded Senate campaign in history, it's leaving a really bad taste in my mouth"

Just mark them as spam. Who cares? it's pretty easy to ignore an email

I donated that Jaime Harrison's campaign last week, and today I have received, no word of a lie, at least 10 emails from him begging for money.

I had the same experience - relentless texts. But if it's in the service of kicking Lady G to the curb, I guess I'll put up with it

Yeah, I’ve donated to his campaign a few times, and I get about a dozen emails a day. I just ignore/delete them. He’s raised $57 million. At this point, he can’t buy much more TV time.

Same here. I get 1-2 daily emails from each of the Dem senatorial candidates but it's a v mild inconvenience given objective. Been donating more to Ossoff's lately to get him over 50% threshold and if not can be diverted to Jan 5 runoff

r385 + r386 + r387 = Boris and The Sockpuppets.

SIGN UP WITH A DESIGNATED E-MAIL, DUMBASS.

[quote]He’s raised $57 million. At this point, he can’t buy much more TV time.

He should just buy votes directly and cut out the middle man.

Governor Greg Abbott has a different plan.

[bold]Texas Guard: Abbott to order 1,000 troops to Texas cities during election[/bold]

The Texas Army National Guard said Monday it had been ordered to dispatch 1,000 troops to five major cities around the state in conjunction with the Nov. 3 election, including San Antonio.

Details about the operation weren’t clear, but a Texas Guard spokesman, Brandon Jones, said troops could be sent to Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and San Antonio this weekend.

He didn’t know how many troops would be deployed to those cities, but said they might not be sent to polling locations. They were sent to the Alamo and the state Capitol, among other places, during the George Floyd protests last summer, and could be ordered to the same locations again, he said.

more at link

r388 Chill buddy - we're on the same side. Hint: a quick way to determine whether someone's a troll or #45 syncophant is click Ignore and view his/her prior posts. Cheers

My inbox as proof, r388.

You don't need to prove anything to us, especially r388, he's a total asshole. Thanks for making the donations!

Nice try to save your seat Susan Collins, but it's not going to work.

Time to be concerned bitch.

The race in Maine may be close. There hasn't been much high quality Senate polling in Maine lately. Gideon appears to have the lead and is probably favored, but Collins won by a huge margin in 2014 so we may see a close race where the winner is determined by only a few points.

The media are making Collins seem like the new McCain. Independent maverick etc.

Evil witch.

Susan Collins ad from the Lincoln Project just out.

Democrats already angling to take out Ron Johnson in 2022

Tom Nelson, a county executive, announced his campaign Monday, arguing Johnson’s unapologetic embrace of President Donald Trump will cost him if he seeks reelection in Wisconsin.

[quote] Other Democrats whose names are already circulating as possible candidates include Milwaukee Bucks senior vice president Alex Lasry, who also served as the Democratic National Convention host committee finance chair. Lasry, the son of billionaire hedge fund manager and Democratic bundler Marc Lasry, could quickly mount of a formidable, well-funded campaign.

[quote] Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who took on a national role speaking for Wisconsin in the wake of police shooting of Jacob Blake and the subsequent Kenosha riots, is another name in the mix, as well as state Attorney General Josh Kaul.

[quote] Since January, Johnson’s favorability numbers have hovered in the 30s, according to the Marquette Law School poll, under-performing Trump, Evers and Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

[quote] Even if they retain control of the Senate in next week's elections, the 2022 cycle will be a challenging one for the GOP. Two swing-state Republican senators, Richard Burr of North Carolina and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, have already said they will retire in 2022 rather than run for reelection. Also on the ballot in two years are Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Chuck Grassley of Iowa, who will be 89 years old on Election Day 2022.

Not an A+ pollster but nevertheless some interesting polls today from Civiqs.

Georgia

Warnock +25!!!!!! this race has been consistently trending towards double digit lead for Warnock among most pollsters.

Ossoff +6

Interestingly, a kind of tight race in Mississippi

Espy (D) 44%

Hyde-Smith(R) 52%

I think Georgia will go blue before NC.

[quote] I think Georgia will go blue before NC.

[quote] Standing in the way of Raphael Warnock’s avoiding a run-off in Georgia is...Joe Lieberman’s spalpeen. Perfect.

Indeed, R401.

The last time Collins won, she was running in a non-presidential election year so there were fewer overall voters. She's going to have a much tougher time this year. Are there really going to be that many people voting for Biden and Susan Collins? Maine is going to go Biden.

Minnesota Polling:

Presidential: Biden (D): 53% Trump (R): 39%

Senate: Smith (D): 53% Lewis (R): 39%

Gravis / October 26, 2020 / n=657 / MOE 3.8% / IVR

Montana Senate Polling:

Bullock (D): 48% (-) Daines (R): 47% (-1)

PPP / October 27, 2020 / n=886 / MOE 3.3% / Telephone

(% chg Oct 10)

Senate (North Carolina)

Cunningham (D) 48% Tillis (R) 47%

10/21-10/27 by Ipsos (B-) 647 LV

Woof! Hope this was helpful!

Poll #135094 #ElectionTwitter

Democrats already angling to take out Ron Johnson in 2022

I'd be in for that one; I loathe that asshole. Even the repigs appear to consider old Susan toast - regardless of her stance, I think this most recent repig SC sham was the nail in the coffin for her (or one of the nails anyway)

NEW @DataProgress (B-) South Carolina poll October 22-27 (DEM SPONSORED):

Biden 44% (-6) Trump 50% Jorgensen 1% Hawkins 0%

Harrison 46% (-) Graham 46% Bledsoe 3%

MOE +/- 2.8%

The fun thing is, like La Sénatrice, Collins must really be suffering. She’s probably sure she’s going to lose but she’s not quite sure. Talk about living on the knifes edge. That would be totally awful. Good.

Lady G and phony Collins both losing would be thrilling.

Senate analysis just out from 538.

[quote] The last time Collins won, she was running in a non-presidential election year so there were fewer overall voters. She's going to have a much tougher time this year. Are there really going to be that many people voting for Biden and Susan Collins? Maine is going to go Biden.

Susan Collins ran a scam on the voters in Maine for several decades. She got away with the charade of being a long-suffering— and very concerned — moderate. That is until now. The mask was ripped off over the last four years as she sided with Cheatolini time after time after time. Her constituents have been able to see her for what she is. So it is unsurprising that the good folks in Maine have turned against her. Thanks to her antics with Kavanaugh, people have had a good long while to think about her and her record.

I think Collins actually is a moderate. But she is more spineless. She saw the Trump phenomenon and she caved. So it barely matters what her politics are. She doesn’t stand for anything.

R398 oh let's hope. Of course we have to get Biden elected first but I'm worried lazy liberals won't turn out in the 2022 midterms which would allow Johnson to win again.

Susan was never moderate. She was a master at fooling people.

Senate (Michigan)

Peters (D) 48% James (R) 39%

10/23-10/25 by Glengariff Group (B/C) 600 LV

#MESen Poll: Gideon (D) 47% Collins (R-Inc) 43% Savage (I) 5% Linn (I) 2% Colby College LV, 10/21-10/25

Senate (North Carolina) Cunningham (D) 49% Tillis (R) 42% 10/24-10/26 by RMG Research (B/C) 800 LV

@NCCivitas

U.S. Senate race:

@ThomTillis

– 43%

@CalforNC

– 46% #ncpol #CivitasPoll

Cunningham and Cooper continue to outperform Biden in North Carolina.

Senate (Arizona)

Kelly (D) 51% McSally (R) 39%

10/17-10/25 by Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 725 RV

Woof! Hope this was helpful!

Poll #135278 #ElectionTwitter

Senate (North Carolina) Cunningham (D) 46% Tillis (R) 44% 10/26-10/27 by Gravis Marketing (C) 614 LV

Black voters in Michigan Biden: 84% Trump: 4% #MISen Peters (D-inc): 82% James (R): 9%

Tomorrow through Sunday will unleash an avalanche of final polls

So overall things are looking pretty good?

Do NOT jinx it

There is no such thing as "jinxing," there is nothing more anyone reading this thread can do and Republicans lost the Senate years ago by being their fascist pig selves.

I have every part of me crossed that it won’t happen but what if Trump won the presidency but the Democratic Party the senate. Does Trump actually have any power in that scenario? Foreigner here so don’t know that much about the American system.

I told Boris @ r322 that James wouldn't stand a chance by Election Day. There's no dissatisfaction with Peters.

Voters were just learning of James and he's black. Now everybody has read the fine print and realizes he's a regressive Republican.

Michigan isn't going to fall for a token black who's going to harm people with more COVID and denial of unemployment/stimulus when lots of people are hurting and desperate to take crooked Republican control of the Senate away.

Election Day countdown!

Not a lot would get done except more progressive Judges appointed, r428. But that's a good thing when containing Trump. The Congress would impeach Trump repeatedly and could actually present evidence in the Senate and remove him this time. Even if impeachment ultimately fails, the Democrats can subpoena all of Trump's records, expose his crimes, his taxes, his financial bedfellows and an entire sewer of more scandals.

Economic stimulus and unemployment WOULD get done, because Trump has always supported it. That would be much better than getting stuck with McConnell in charge again.

Senate (Kansas)

Bollier (D) 46% Marshall (R) 45% Buckley (L) 4%

10/25-10/27 by GBAO (B/C) 600 LV NOTE: partisan (D) poll

Woof woof! Can I have a treat?

Poll #135352 #ElectionTwitter

Ipsos Arizona Senate poll

Kelly 51% (+7) McSally 44%

I would second R10's comment about Kansas. I lived in Lawrence for many years and there are a number of well-educated upper middle class Republicans who can't stand Trump and wouldn't have voted for him in 2016. They were appalled at Brownback and actually campaigned against him. Sibelius was the last elected Democratic governor and her lieutenant governor succeeded her when she moved into Obama's adminstration as Secretary of HHS.

I hope Doug Jones wins. He has done good things for Alabama.

R305, they all do it. Since I donated to a House candidate at the other end of my state, I've been swamped with emails. And I'm getting emails about candidates I've never supported financially.

NC ballot ruling by SCOTUS out:

The Supreme Court on Wednesday voted 5-3 to reject an effort by the Trump campaign and Republicans to reverse a six-day mail ballot due date extension in North Carolina.

The ruling was a major blow for Trump, who polls show to be locked in a tight race with Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the crucial battleground state, a must-win for the president’s reelection chances.

The court’s three most conservative justices — Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch — would have granted the request. Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who joined the court Tuesday, did not participate in consideration of the case.

I saw that, R161. In fact, I was so pissed off Monday evening that I donated to her campaign. I was really annoyed today to see Raw Story running a column where they lead by saying Mitch will probably win again anyway,, but whining that he's so mean. Constantly citing support for Mitch does nothing but suppress the vote. She's another one I hope wins.

Martha McSally has done everything she can to appeal to Trump & his base

This is how he introduced her:

"Just come up fast. Fast. Fast. Come on. Quick. You got one minute! One minute, Martha! They don’t want to hear this, Martha. Come on. Let’s go. Quick, quick, quick. Come on"

Thank you for your answer, R431.

228,000 people voted in Georgia today.

Senate (North Carolina)

Cunningham (D) 48% Tillis (R) 45%

10/23-10/26 by SurveyUSA (A) 627 LV

Woof woof! Can I have a treat?

Poll #135369 #ElectionTwitter

[quote]The Supreme Court on Wednesday voted 5-3 to reject an effort by the Trump campaign and Republicans to reverse a six-day mail ballot due date extension in North Carolina.

Well well, Keg King Brett (Kavanaugh) seems to not be delivering the right kind of decisions for his overlords. Not what was expected. Will be interesting to see how he rules on the many-expected decisions to come re this election.

He and Roberts have both been surprisingly moderate in many rulings since joining SCOTUS, Robert in particular seems oriented toward preserving some kind of sensible moderate legacy as Head Justice.

R436, ACB was diplomatic and said she didn’t want to vote on the case because she just got there and she hadn’t had time to read it. Probably doesn’t want to walk in the door of the Supreme Court and immediately piss on the Constitution in front of her colleagues the first day. Elections are run by states and there’s really no reason to tell them they can’t do it. Trump must be pissed.

[quote] He and Roberts have both been surprisingly moderate in many rulings since joining SCOTUS, Robert in particular seems oriented toward preserving some kind of sensible moderate legacy as Head Justice.

Roberts is well aware that every decision of the Court will be analyzed under a microscope to see how far off the rails the 6-3 majority is going to lurch. He knows that if they push too far it will immediately provide the necessary talking points for the Dems to expand the Court. I think that ultimately he won’t be successful, they’ll go overboard quickly and the Dems will then move forward with adding four seats.

But I think the Pennsylvania decision was an attempt to show how moderate they will be. 😂😂😂

Roberts can play his 4D chess all he wants.

We’re getting those 4 motherfucking new justices.

[quote] Roberts is well aware that every decision of the Court will be analyzed under a microscope to see how far off the rails the 6-3 majority is going to lurch. He knows that if they push too far it will immediately provide the necessary talking points for the Dems to expand the Court. I think that ultimately he won’t be successful, they’ll go overboard quickly and the Dems will then move forward with adding four seats.

Has anyone else heard the speculation that Roberts, ever the institutionalist, might attempt to placate Democrats by retiring early into the Biden administration? That would "save" the court and his reputation at the same time (assuming Thomas and Alito are respectful enough to fuck off In a timely manner and/or Sen. Whitehouse gets the goods to have Kav impeached.)

I've only seen this mentioned once or twice but it is an interesting concept.

I don't think it's likely, R446. He's not that old - I'm sure he still has a personal agenda of his own. I think he'd be just as happy to see Roe v Wade overturned as any of the others.

The person "concerned" about receiving too many e-mails from donating to Democratic candidates is a troll who's trying to exploit I comment I made in the first thread. This was NEVER an issue until I mentioned it, but I donate anyway.

Boris likes to parrot and amplify any criticism or complaint a liberal DLer makes about a Democrat in order to dissuade, divide and demoralize.

Keep giving to Democrats; use a designated e-mail instead of your general e-mail if you don't want spam. Only Boris will repeat this nothingburger a fifth time in an effort to distract from Donald Trump's lethal incompetence.

We already have the talking points. The majority of Americans oppose the conservative Supreme Court and attempts to overturn Roe V. Wade.

We're expanding the Supreme Court in 2021 because there is a mandate to do so and it may be the last chance before the American republic fails.

r444 is just Boris trying to subdue the theft, resale and subversion of democracy by the rapists and nutjobs sitting on the Supreme Court.

0/10

I am british so I am not fully aware of all the details of US politics but are there any elections for state governors happening next week and if so are they noteworthy IE a blue wave or some republican governors in blue states predicted to win etc?I am thinking especially in the context of the coronavirus crisis and whether some governors are deemed to have failed by voters and will likely pay an electoral price? Thanks in advance.

the end of Roe v Wade will upend American politics as never for at least 40 years. Every woman is going to have to think about every State Legislative election, every Governor election, even every judicial election in many states, as never before. This is Pandora's box, and I seriously suspect the Republican Party is not ready in any way for this. They've been coasting on this, but now it gets suddenly very, very serious.

r452 Excellent political analysis. Astute. There will be unintended political consequences for the republicans in overplaying their hand with this and it will deservedly backfire.

The short answer, R451, is NO.

I personally haven't given it much thought, but this looks accurate in the assessment that Montana is the only state likely to change party (unfortunately). With luck, however, that outgoing Democratic governor will help flip the Senate

Thank you r454

[quote] R444 is just Boris trying to subdue the theft, resale and subversion of democracy by the rapists and nutjobs sitting on the Supreme Court.

🙄 You are a moron, R450. Did you actually read what I wrote? I think not. Nothing — absolutely nothing — that I wrote was lulling anyone into being “subdued” about anything. I said that Roberts was likely trying to put the brakes on the runaway train that is the conservative SC majority in what will ultimately be an unsuccessful attempt to stop the Dems from expanding the a Court.

Sorry, r456.

I meant r450 for r379, r380, r381, r385, r386 and r387.

One attribution mistake doesn't make a "moron."

Oh, go fuck yourself, you hysterical ninny @ r457. I've been on DL 2004, have donated hundreds to ActBlue this cycle, and am driving people to the polls on Tuesday.

What have YOU done?

Make sure you get 10 other people to vote. Even if it’s not in your state. Tell them you are doing a challenge, it helps break the ice and not seem so preachy.

If there are even 10 people left who haven’t voted hehe.

[quote] One attribution mistake doesn't make a "moron."

While that may well be true R457, how would I have known that before your admission? All I had was a bizarre accusation that I was a “Boris” who was attempting to lull people into complacency. So, . . .

Before we expand anything, we need to get Biden into that White House and get the required majority in the Senate. Ironically this SCOTUS may end up deciding it and not our imaginary one. What Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Gorsuch do is important.

[quote]Has anyone else heard the speculation that Roberts, ever the institutionalist, might attempt to placate Democrats by retiring early into the Biden administration?

He's lately decided with the sane justices which is encouraging, but I don't count on anything good from that side of the spectrum. I don't know what needs to be done here... Donald Trump appointing three justices... how fucked up is that?

Does anybody know why Roberts wasn't presiding over the White House foolishness?

R463, I think it just shows the flaws in the whole system. It's essentially a lottery. If there is a change, I don't think it will be just an expansion but they may change the way the judges are selected and appointed.

Senate (Maine) Gideon (D) 46% Collins (R) 45% Savage (I) 4% Linn (I) 1% 10/23-10/27 by SurveyUSA (A) 1007 LV

Senate (Georgia) Ossoff (D) 47% Perdue (R) 41% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

Senate (Georgia) Warnock (D) 41% Loeffler (R) 23% Collins (R) 19% Lieberman (D) 4% Tarver (D) 1% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

Senate (Texas) Hegar (D) 43% Cornyn (R) 38% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

NBC/Marist poll of Florida Biden 51% (+3 from Sept) Trump 47% (-1) Oct 25-27, +/- 4.4%

Maine is crazy close. I can't believe Collins might be reelected. Jesus.

[quote] Seriously, this is the most West Wing moment I’ve ever seen in real life.

Ossoff is such a great debater. I love him.

Is he a master debater?

Susan Collins backed down from a fight with private equity. Now they’re underwriting her reelection.

The Maine Republican senator has become the No. 1 Senate recipient of private equity donations.

By THEODORIC MEYER and JUSTIN ELLIOTT

10/29/2020 12:00 PM EDT

r474 In other words she is a corrupt political whore and a phoney with little integrity.

R466 & 468, do we know anything about the quality of Citizen Data polling? FiveThirtyEight doesn't list this pollster, suggesting that it may not be a quality one.

New @QuinnipiacPoll of Iowa (LVs):

Trump 47% Biden 46%

Ernst (R) 48% Greenfield (D) 46%

BREAKING: Senator Perdue just cancelled our final debate.

At last night's debate, millions saw that Perdue had no answers when I called him out on his record of blatant corruption, widespread disease, and economic devastation.

Shame on you, Senator.

R478, holy shit!!!! Go get him, boy.

Oh go fuck yourself, you hysterically sore loser @ r458.

If you've been on DL since 2004, you have e-mails attesting to your registration for all of those years. If you've "donated hundreds to ActBlue this cycle," you'll have e-mail or bank statement receipts to prove it and link them here. If you are driving people to the polls on Tuesday, you will have had e-mail registration, correspondence and scheduling information before today that you can also link here.

And even if you proved all of that horse shit, none of it would affect anything I've written or be relevant to any argument on the thread.

The truth is, you're just a right-wing troll in panic mode because your criminal Fuhrer and his Senate accomplices are going STRAIGHT DOWN THE SHITTER, so you tried to exploit my earlier complaint about e-mails to discourage more people from donating to Democratic candidates.

Just like you're recycling my earlier question about WHAT HAVE YOU DONE?

You're not fooling anyone and your reaction doesn't match what a person on the Democratic side would say to another Democrat who just apologized for attributing to the wrong post's number.

Harrison is spending millions boosting the libertarian candidate. Love it.

Fighting an Uphill Senate Re-election Battle, Doug Jones Does It His Way

Mr. Jones, from deeply conservative Alabama, is the Senate’s most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. But far from tiptoeing toward re-election, he seems almost liberated by his predicament.

[quote] public polling has shown Mr. Jones trailing Mr. Tuberville, who has kept a low profile on the campaign trail, in the low double digits. And while he is outrunning former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic presidential nominee, Mr. Jones would need a significant number of Republicans to split their tickets in a state where Mr. Trump won by 28 points in 2016.

[quote] “Alabama remains a deeply Republican state,” said David Hughes, a professor of political science and pollster at Auburn University at Montgomery. “While Doug Jones has done a really good job positioning himself to outperform those traditional expectations, there’s still a really steep hill to climb to get over the hill as the winner.”

Jon taking us to church, y'all!

I think that merits another donation to Jon, R483. Thanks.

Jon's accent is sexy as hell.

I posted a picture of my inbox up thread, r480, in which you can pretty clearly see a stream of emails from Democratic candidates, and a donation to Act Blue.

Now I shall block you. Bye, Felicia.

Jon is sexy, sexy, sexy.

Senate (North Carolina)

Tillis (R) 46% Cunningham (D) 41% Bray (L) 6% Hayes (C) 2%

10/27-10/28 by Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) 750 LV

Arf arf! Have a nice day!

Poll #135684 #ElectionTwitter

Other NC senate seat polls.

Yeah, I'm sure that Cardinal Poll is an outlier. Doesn't even get a rating.

I still don't see why you needed to bring up Jaime Harrison's e-mail spam for the sixth time since I originally mentioned it in the first thread, r486.

I advised people then to use a designated e-mail account and Google voice number for any and all political donations if they didn't want the spam and others recommended blocking/unsubscribing via e-mail. The issue was resolved and repeating it only discourages people from donating.

And I take back my apology. You're a cunt, so I shall now block you.

Bye, cunt!

If a third-party candidate who started the Senate race with no name recognition and almost no money finishes as well, or even better, than a sitting senator or this year’s Democratic presidential nominee, that could cast some shade on Cotton’s presidential ambitions.

And, make no mistake, embarrassing Cotton is an admirable political goal.

Senate (North Carolina)

Cunningham (D) 47% Tillis (R) 43%

10/24-10/27 by Meeting Street Insights (B/C) 600 LV NOTE: partisan (R) poll

Woof woof! Did I do a good job?

Poll #135839 #ElectionTwitter

Ossoff leads in the RCP average for the first time ever. #GASen

There have been videos in news reports and on twitter about bins full of mail sitting at the postal offices for weeks. O'Donnell just had a report on this on msnbc with the Florida Dem House leader.

Florida Shenanigans unfolding as we speak

Dem House Leader @kionnemcghee

Raw footage of mailroom in post office here in Miami Dade. Source revealed “mail in ballots are within these piled up in bins on the floor. Mail has been sitting for over week!.”

Per source -both Post Master and Postal Inspector are aware of this issue at the Princeton post office. Post Master is taking photos and videos of the matter and expect sorting to take them past Tuesday.

Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle said she requested that all postal distribution centers be audited and that any remaining ballots be taken immediately to the Department of Elections.

The USPS told NBC 6 that they were looking into the matter. Miami-Dade's Department of Elections said they were also investigating and contacted the USPS confirmation.

"And we're assured that the ballots in this post office will be delivered in time," the elections department told NBC 6.

In Florida, a mailed ballot must be received by the county elections office by 7 p.m. on Election Day, regardless of when it was postmarked.

This is where the big bottleneck will happen: at the local post offices and postal sorting centers. Dems need to check into this in states where the ballots have strict deadline arrival dates. There could be thousands of ballots left uncounted in FL alone, which could easily swing the election.

I already feel like talking to the streets to protest this bullshit. God I hate DeJoy.

*taking

Ossof is so fucking close to hitting that 50‰.

Ossoff is asking for $1 from each supporter tonight.

Dejoy is going to prison for fucking with the mail.

Federal offense.

Each piece of mail he's fucked with.

He will have ZERO friends. The stench will longer on him forever.

If the 2 Georgia Senate candidates are forced into the run-off, I fear their chances may be doomed if Trump is defeated.

R503, I think you’re right, unless maybe Democratic control of the Senate hinges on the runoff, and/or it’s somehow reframed as a national contest, so everyone in the nation is activated for it.

The Georgia senate runoffs explained.

Help make it a national race. Spread awareness about it.

Warnock and Ossoff must each get over 50% of the vote to win. Not a mere majority.

[quote] Georgia is the only state in the country with both Senate seats on the ballot this fall, thanks to a special election for the successor to Republican Johnny Isakson, who resigned last year for health reasons. It’s also one of only two states (the other is Louisiana) that require candidates to hit 50 percent of the vote in order to avoid a general election runoff—a relic of the Jim Crow era, when Southern Democrats schemed to prevent Black voters from uniting behind a candidate and winning with a plurality of the vote.

It’s very close in Maine.

Jon was looking hot today.

The polls of Warnock and Ossoff both show they would win their runoff elections. Georgians have already answered this question.

They're not going to forget about the mess and crimes Republicans are committing just because Trump loses.

Anybody too offended and butt-hurt to vote Ossoff because Trump won wasn't ever voting for Ossoff in the first place.

I think Ossoff could avoid run-off. Its virtually impossible for Warnock to avoid it. But in the run off, Warnock could easily beat Loeffler.

It would be a stunning turn of events if the Democrats took both of the Georgia Senate seats. And, it would be an indicator that the Rethuglican party is in very deep trouble.

That's why there'll be massive voter suppression, GOP dirty tricks and propaganda in the runoff, R511.

Bullock (Dem, Montana) was down by 3 earlier in the week but now he is up 1.

With the virus count spiraling out of control, I’m hoping that some holdouts will come to their senses and vote Democratic. This might explain the recent bumps. We are over 100,000 infections as of yesterday.

I'm hoping a bunch of deplorables will be sick and don't feel like voting.

I read in some news report that one-fifth of the people in one representative survey thought COVID-19 was a "depopulation scheme run by the UN".

So at least 1/5 of the deplorables will show up to vote with bells (ahem, MAGA hats and open carry) on.

#Michigan Senate Poll:

Peters (D) 52% James (R) 40% Squier (G) 3%

@CNN/@ssrs_research (LV, 10/23-10/30)

SC dead heat.

In heat:

We should picket the Kennedy school because that job should go to someone who needs it. KC has tens of millions of ill gotten cash.

*IOWA*

Des Moines Register final poll

Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has pulled ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield.

Ernst (R) 46%

Greenfield (D) 42%

R520, thats a shame. Now NC and ME are MUSTs for Dems to take the Senate and both are super tight.

R521, yes, this is a setback for Dem Senate chances in Iowa, but Dems are seeing increasing momentum in the Georgia Senate races. So GA becomes important now, too.

RCP now has Ernst up by 0.4%. #IASen

For some reason I'm very bummed about these Ernst numbers. I thought she was a goner and we were done with her.

Now we have to find another race to gain a seat.

it's so weird that the Iowa poll just turned last minute so quickly

I'm worried about the senate now. I thought Maine and Iowa were looking good but now they're so close.

We can't count on Georgia, Texas or South Carolina either.

Democrats need a minimum of 4 seats because Alabama is gone

One thing that pundits and some Democrats are just now starting to acknowledge is that inperson rallies and door to door canvassing probably have an impact on energizing your voters and turnout. Also, Republicans have registered a lot more new voters this year than Democrats. It’s starting to show.

Senate (Arizona)

Kelly (D) 50% McSally (R) 43%

10/26-10/30 by Siena College/The New York Times Upshot (A+) 1252 LV

Arf arf! Have a nice day!

Poll #136021 #ElectionTwitter

R526. How can Dems just start to realize this? Im dumbfounded ... its basic politics that door to door and rallies are important ... I hate 🍊💩 with the fires of a thousand suns, but he has been relentlessly shilling with multiple events a say ... Biden must do similar

Lindsey Graham tells women: ‘There’s a place for you in America’ if you ‘follow traditional family structure’

Meh...it was always going to be up to Maine, North Carolina, and the Western states to win the Senate.

Arizona, Montana, Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine.

Still, let's hope Iowa does come through. The Emerson College poll has Greenfield @ +3. Not all is lost. It;ll be a nail-biter for sure.

[quote] Lindsey Graham tells women: ‘There’s a place for you in America’ if you ‘follow traditional family structure’

yikes!

R525, FWIW on State of the union David Axelrod said the internals on the Iowa poll were dubious. He didn’t elaborate. But I don’t think Axelrod runs around making wildly bullshit claims. He’s a Democrat, not a Republican.

R532, there is plenty deep dive analysis of the Iowa Setzer poll on Twitter.

Rex Chapman @RexChapman

Kentuckians - you know my story. I nearly died from opioids.

I don’t want to be doing this.

But we all know someone here who has died or is dying from pills and/or heroin right now.

This is personal.

It’s why I’m voting for Amy.

I am in Michigan and the James campaign poll number is amazing. He was so close to overtaking Peters and has had a ton of ads on tv. Glad to see the bottom fell out. All that Devos money was spent for shit

Michigan Polling:

Presidential: Biden (D): 52% (-) Trump (R): 45% (+3) Jorgensen (L): 1% (-2) Hawkins (G): 1% (+1)

Senate: Peters (D): 50% (-2) James (R): 45% (+2) Dern (NL): 2% (+2)

Mitchell Research / Oct 29 / n=817 / MOE 3.4% / IVR

(% chg w Oct 27)

R528, have you considered that your idea of basic politics being door to door contact and rallies is grossly outdated? Hell, I never answer the front door let alone with a pandemic going on. Who cares about rallies? They are stupid relics of the past. There are plenty of people in plenty of states who never even have a candidate land in their state and yet they still vote.

If you can't be inspired to get out and vote this year, then you aren't ever going to be inspired enough. I don't even understand why it TAKES any inspiration: I haven't ever missed voting in a general election and I don't need anyone telling me anything to do that.

R537, maybe, but if Trump wins, it obviously isn’t outdated

While certainly Trump can once again win the Electoral College, any supporter who believes he'll win the popular vote is most assuredly drinking the Kool-Aid. That. Ain't. Happening. It brings to mind a conversation I, in Michigan, had with a Trump-loving colleague in May 2018 who predicted that a republican would be elected governor of California later that year. Of course, that struck me as utter madness, and, in fact, the republican candidate didn't even crack 40%.

What's flustering Republicans is the fact that Biden has many paths to victory. Instead of going after Biden full force, they are being forced to defend Texas and Florida. Dems don't need Texas or Florida to win the WH/the Senate, yet Republicans could lose both.

It's a shame an even more recent Emerson poll puts Greenfield ahead by 3 points, r520.

Greenfield (D) 51%

Ernst (R) 48%

The Senate is going to be a tough battle. It was always going to be a tough battle.

We will see how North Carolina and Iowa shake out.

It’s 47 Dem caucus (45 Dem + 2 independent) vs. 53 GOP.

Dems need a net pick-up of 3 seats, assuming Biden wins. That way it’ll be 50-50 with the VP voting, giving Dems ac majority.

That means Dems need to win 4 new seats, assuming Jones loses in AL.

Right now the following look very promising: AZ, CO, ME, NC

But ME is closer than I expected.

GA (2 seats), SC, IA, and MT are also in play. Others may be as well.

[quote] The Senate is going to be a tough battle. It was always going to be a tough battle.

It's looking like North Carolina will compensate for losing Alabama. And we hold Michigan

Hopefully we get Maine and Iowa to add to Colorado and Arizona for the lead.

Bonuses would be Alaska and Montana and South Carolina--for a net SEVEN.

Texas and/or Mississippi and I'll dance naked in the streets. Kentucky and I'll spare everyone the sight and put my clothes back on.

Why not Kansas? Within the margin of error there/tied.

Nice article about overnight voting in Houston.

[quote] Why not Kansas? Within the margin of error there/tied.

Excellent point, R545. I should have thought about my answer more thoroughly:

It's looking like North Carolina will compensate for losing Alabama. And we hold Michigan

Hopefully we get Maine and Iowa to add to Colorado and Arizona for the lead.

Bonuses would be Alaska, Montana, Kansas, South Carolina and Ossoff in GA--for a net NINE.

Warnock in GA will most likely go to a January run off making it TEN in February.

Texas and/or Mississippi and I'll dance naked in the streets. Kentucky and I'll spare everyone the sight and put my clothes back on.

We need new states to repair the Senate.

Splitting up existing states is ludicrous. Besides, do you know how many new red states could be made from Texas, Montana, etc.? Have you seen how red the country is geographically? All of the blue is in very narrow sections of urban areas.

Montana:

In the last poll (Oct. 28) Bullock is ahead by +1.

Kansas:

In the last set of polls that covered the period of Oct. 25-27 the three polls yield three close outcomes.

GBAO Boiler (D) +1

GBAO* Even

VCreek/AMG Marshall +4

I would say Montana and Kansas are just as competitive as Ossoff's race in Georgia.

[bold]Maine, Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina[/bold] are still our likely pick ups. We tie the Senate with four plus a Democratic VP breaks the tie.

I like our chances of picking up one of Georgia, Kansas, Iowa, or Montana to make it 5 pick ups and lead the Senate. This is without counting Texas and Georgia #2.

R549 Geographically red? Where cows outnumber people? Where people actually live, it’s Blue. It may be a sliver but millions live there unlike the vast red empltiness.

Isn’t Maine ranked choice? That would mean it’s pretty like a democratic pickup.

Is CO really in play?

[quote]We tie the Senate with four plus a Democratic VP breaks the tie.

that should read: we tie with 4, assuming we are losing the seat in Alabama*

BTW, does anyone think the Senate race in Texas is much closer than being reported? IF the vote in Texas is so inspired, it could push Hager over the edge on the final stretch. In the last three polls Hager has been gaining ground on Cornyn, which can mean she has momentum.

She went from -6 to -4 , then to -3 in the span of one week. This hints her trajectory is going upwards while Cornyn is in a little bit of a freefall in the last days before the election.

R552,

The two Senators in Michigan are Democratic, so it wouldn't count as a pick up. We are assuming we are not losing Michigan. Mary, we do need 5 pick ups just in case.

Colorado (+9) is probably our safest bet for a pick up followed by Arizona(+7), NC (+5-3) and Maine (+3-2).

The nice thing about all of the races that aren't Ossoff/Perdue (and the other Georgia that is really a primary), there are no stupid run-off rules. It doesn't matter if you get 50% or not; you just have to win.

R551, my point is that if we start splitting up states, what makes you think that the big geographic states wouldn't also split up to get more red state senators? That is a no-win chain of events. Adding DC and/or Puerto Rico as states would be much more feasible.

I agree with r555. I don't like the idea of splitting up states because it sets a very bad precedent and could have a very undesired outcome. Think North and South Dakota are bad? What about East and West Montana? The Oklahoma Panhandle? North Nebraska? Adding states is far different - there are only a few that could be added, and they would all be Democratic gains.

The long-term point of adding states (and senators) is not to create new Democratic strongholds, but instead to force a realignment of the GOP. If they are relegated to permanent minority status in the senate, the party will necessarily have to moderate to survive.

On the Media had a good interview this week discussing hyper partisanship, and how, in the 1950s, some argued that US politics weren't partisan enough. While there were differences between the two parties, they were similar enough that voters felt comfortable switching between them to show their displeasure at the governing party. That changed during the Civil Rights era, where the differences became far more stark. Ultimately, the Democrats became the big tent party, while the GOP became the party of identity politics (white, Christian, rural). The ultimate result of that is that people stay with their "team," no matter how extreme their team has become.

Right now, if I were pissed at the Democrats, where would I go? Certainly not to the GOP, because it stands for absolutely nothing that I believe in.

R549, did you actually read the Atlantic piece?

R556, please read the Atlantic piece.

It’s a party-that-shoots-first-wins kind of weapon.

[quote] An ad from Sen. Dan Sullivan’s campaign came under fire over the weekend after several organizations called it anti-Semitic.

[quote] The ad shows Sullivan’s challenger, Al Gross, holding a bunch of money, and standing behind a pile of $100 bills. Over Gross' left shoulder is Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, grinning in the shadows.

Senate (Illinois)

Durbin (D) 52% Curran (R) 30%

10/31-11/1 by Research Co. (B-) 450 LV

Woof woof! Have a nice day!

Poll #136295 #ElectionTwitter

R561. if Durbin's poll numbers are a cause to rejoice, it's going to be a bleak Election Day/Week.

R556, the Dems are going to have to control the Senate before that's a scenario.

How's it looking for Stud Ossoff?

Sadly, Susan Collins hasn't won a poll all Fall and rarely for the last 2 years. Gideon will win.

MAINE SENATE:

GIDEON: 48%

COLLINS: 42%

Oct. 29-31 Emerson College

There's also late-breaking momentum for Greenfield in the 3, latest Iowa polls:

IOWA SENATE:

GREENFIELD: 51%

ERNST: 48%

Oct. 29-31 Emerson College

My Prediction:

Democrats will pick up Senate seats in ME, MT, NC, AZ, IA, CO and GA × 2. That's 8 SENATE SEATS and more than enough to control the Senate and get shit done. It's enough to withstand 5 losses if IO or MT don't come through, etc.

All the latest polls bear this out.

Contrary to the Republican runoff backlash myth, I predict Georgia doesn't hate Biden and the Democrats. Georgia is going to vote for Biden and ensure its place within the party in power.

Once Georgians see that Biden has won the presidency and the other 6 Democratic senators have ensured a Democratic Senate, they're going to want to stick with the Democrats in the runoffs. They're also going to want economic stimulus and a solution to the pandemic.

Georgia simply won't get preferential treatment if they send crooks like Loeffler, etc. and a protest to Washington in the Senate.

r550 says only 4 pickups.

I say 8 pickups.

If the Democrats pick up at least 6 seats, r550 has to give me $50.

I blocked the poster who made the last 4 comments. It's a weird poster, 80% of whose posts focus on calling others trolls.

If there's to be Congressional reform, it should be population-based.

No more of this "create states with automatically 2 senators with outsized representation" left over from the slavery era.

States should only get Senators with voting power equal to 1/2 of the people in their states as updated by the census.

And no gerrymandering in the House -- each party gets seats in accordance with their statewide vote percentage.

If Ossoff doesn't get 50%, glad Warnock will be in runoff as well, to sustain black voter enthusiasm and hopefully achieve 2fer

The NYTimes article at R546 is a very good article - imagine that, making voting *easier* for people. Do that & they'll show up

That's because r569 IS a right-wing troll who can't handle the truth!

Now that the final polling before the election shows Republicans losing by a bigger margin than you care to admit, you block me?

I'm just telling it like it is. How can you not be a fascist if you’re shooting the messenger?

Tell you what. I'll give you $50 if the Democrats don't pick up at least 6 Senate seats after the Georgia runoffs are said and done. All you have to do is place a bet with me anonymously on MyBuddyBet.com My handle there is Joe Blow -- invite me.

What are you waiting for? This should be an easy $50 for you. Right?

[quote] [R550] says only 4 pickups. I say 8 pickups.

I never said we only picked up 4. I said we have 4 guaranteed pick ups (based on the polls) . I certainly expect Ossoff, Boiler, and Hagen to win too, but those are battles.

If Ossoff gets more votes than Purdue, but under "50% plus 1", there has to be a runoff in January, right?

R575, yes

R567, I agree with your assessment. I would also add Barbara Bollier in Kansas to that list. I think that the Dems could have a very good night.

Unfortunately, I don’t think that we get rid of #MoscowMitch — but at least he won’t be the Majority Leader any more, which is great — and I’m not certain that we can ditch Lady G, though I certainly hope so.

I only wish the Dems would impeach McConnell and the Republicans who obstructed justice in the impeachment trial.

Senators cannot be impeached. They are either censured or expelled.

WRONG

All federal officers in the United States can be impeached.

That means Democrats can impeach McConnell, Graham, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh all for interpreting the law wrong or obstructing justice.

Stop making shit up. Members of Congress are not "federal officers."

[quote]Members of Congress are not removed by way of an "impeachment" procedure in the legislature, as are executive and judicial officers, but are subject to the more simplified legislative process of expulsion.

R581, you should have taken the time to read through what you posted. They cannot impeach McConnell or Lady G. But they can expel them, which doesn’t involve the House.

[quote] [bold] The Senate has concluded that members of Congress (Representatives and Senators) are not "civil officers" for purposes of impeachment. [/bold] As a practical matter, expulsion is effected by the simpler procedures of Article I, Section 5, which provides "Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members ... Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behavior, and, with the Concurrence of two thirds, expel a Member." This allows each House to expel its own members without involving the other chamber. [bold] In 1797, the House of Representatives impeached Senator William Blount of Tennessee. The Senate expelled Senator Blount under Article I, Section 5, on the same day. However, the impeachment proceeding remained pending (expulsion only removes the individual from office, but conviction after impeachment may also bar the individual from holding future office, so the question of further punishment remained to be decided). [italic] After four days of debate, the Senate concluded that a Senator is not a "civil officer of the United States" for purposes of the Impeachment clause, and dismissed for lack of jurisdiction. The House has not impeached a Member of Congress since Blount. [/bold] [/italic]

That doesn't mean the Supreme Court or the House concur with a Senatorial exclusive right to impeach Senators, or send them to prison after the Senate convicts them.

Article II, Section 4 still stands.

And who gives a fuck if it's expulsion vs. impeachment? The Democrats can get rid of McConnell, Graham, Kavanaugh or Barrett if they want to next year.

Get rid of McConnell !!!!

And if the Democrats spend the next two years impeaching every Republican they feel has done wrong, we will lose the House/Senate again in 2022.

Because that's not what the people want to see; they expect this next House and Senate (if both are in Democratic control), to take some ACTION and get SHIT DONE.

It's all going to be done without Republican votes, anyways, so we might as well teach McConnell and his ilk they can't obstruct justice.

[quote] And if the Democrats spend the next two years impeaching every Republican they feel has done wrong

What makes you think this is on the agenda?

[quote]Democrats will pick up Senate seats in ME, MT, NC, AZ, IA, CO and GA × 2

This is wildly overoptimistic.

My bet is on North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, Kansas, Texas (after recounts), and Georgia #1 (after a recount) going Democratic.

I forgot Maine !

Collins can be ahead tomorrow night and if not over 50% will close when ranked choice happens the next day

Remember the Maine!

[quote] We are statistically tied with @CindyHydeSmith . We have MOMENTUM on our side. We can WIN today.

MSNBC is not budging for quite awhile.

46=Dem 47=Pigs

Too close to call. I hope Kamala will put us at a tie.

My local Boston CVS covered their windows with plywood, and are closing early, for two days, for fear of violence. They were broken into and looted earlier this year during the initial Black Lives Matters protests.

I’ve been here 25 years before the neighborhood gentrified and homes increased by 10x, but we didn’t have this kind of carnage until Trump encouraged this.

R596, the Black Lives Matters rioters made their own conscious decision to riot and loot, they didn't do it because Trump made them do it. If Trump wins, you can thank BLM and your mindset, which instead of trying to see how people other than yourself might experience things just subsumes everything into an overblown "Trump is an evil Nazi" rhetoric.

R597: BLM reacted to multiple murders of other Blacks by the state, acting on behalf of the country, and encouraged by Trump’s explicit, repetitive, encouragement to commit violence against them and his other opponents. These murderers are rarely held accountable for their actions. Every American deserves equal treatment under the law, but Trump explicitly rejects this. He is a mentally ill sadist and fascist, by definition. There’s a reason that so many life-long and prominent Republicans have advocated for Biden’s election. It’s because the know Trump and what he is like, and what a monster he is.

The looters were disgusting and had nothing to do with politics. They jumped in a stole things thinking it was justified. They destroyed property and many city landmarks were defaced. Nothing was done here in NYC by the Dem Mayor and that was truly disgusting. The blame was on the Democrats for saying nothing. At least Joe Biden believes these people should be prosecuted. I am thankful for that.

R599, that kind of post could get you shot in the face by the police, if you’re Black, so tread carefully.