Mighty Joe Biden Continues to Lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin Part VI

Previous thread:

Fracking: 46% of Pennsylvania voters trust Trump more to handle fracking in the state vs. 42% for Biden. But in western Pennsylvania, Trump has a 57%-33% advantage on the issue, a region where Trump has gained ground in the past month

In Florida, 60 percent of likely voters say they have already voted; 32 percent say the same in Pennsylvania, Post-ABC poll finds (conducted Oct. 24-29)

Dig into our Post-ABC Pennsylvania and Florida results Topline/Methods and crosstabs: Full story with @danbalz

Biden's 51%-44% edge among Pennsylvania likely voters is just slightly smaller than 54%-45% last month, although the current margin among all registered voters is a smaller 49%-45%.

In Pennsylvania’s MAGA Bubble, Trump Is a Beacon of ‘Positivity’ Who Just Can’t Lose

If Trump somehow wins, it will be the end of conventional polling except Rasmussen and Trafalgar. Nate Cohn, Dave Wasserman, and Nate Cohn will be put out to pasture

Damn, I've blocked a lot of people. This thread has 8 replies so far and I can only see the first two.

@WriterMcG @JohnFetterman The average person travels an hour & a half to a Trump rally. 40% of these are groupies, not locals.

My 'disabled' cousin is a Trumper who goes to every Trump train and rally she can attend. Every one that her chronic lyme's disease and fibromyalgia allows her to, I mean! She posts the highlights in between QANON batshittery, GFMs and airbrushed memes.

Deep Dive analysis of the state of the race.

“Why Biden Will Win”

Really worth reading.

So are you saying that the Trump rallies are like Grateful Dead shows where the same fans just travel from place to place to see the same show over and over again? And that a massive turnout at Trump rally in say, PA, is made up of people from not only PA but other states?

I don't know who that person is, but it is a good article R12. I just don't understand why there is such doubt about polls and people just ignore the increase in youth voting and the white women revolt. Could the white women be lying? Sure. But it doesn't seem like it.

With all of the trash that lives down in Florida, it was always going to be a long shot for Biden.

I assume that if he can't win MI, WI, PA that it's all over but the crying?

I suspect many of us are very shell shocked still from 2016. I want to believe the polls but still get paranoid.

Agreed R16.

What white women revolt? They're all at his rallies. Get ready. Trump's getting reelected. The Midwest is NOT going for Biden.

I still can't believe those Trump numbers on coronavirus. He is almost tied with Biden in both Pennsylvania in Florida on the issue. Are these voters retarded?

Man, there were some STUPID FUCKING REPLIES in that last thread. One bad outlier poll out of Iowa (which Dave Wasserman has explained has major problems and can’t be trusted to be accurate), and one Trump +2 poll from FL, and a bunch of concern trolls and nervous nellies shit their pants.

Biden still has a 90% chance to win in the 538 forecast.

Link, r19? Because I think that’s far from the truth.

Trolls are out in huge numbers to, what, depress you? Why? The vote is in. Hearing bad news will only inspire you to vote Biden. Dumb trolls.

R12 I’m having problems with some of her math. Don’t MI, WI, Az (9 elect votes) plus Nev district add up to 268? And what does she mean WI cost her the 270? She lost by more than one state; she finished at 238.

Also I don’t recall Nate Silver ever giving Trump a 30% chance. I remember him having Hillary at 90%.

Voting once for Trump can almost be forgiven- everyone gets been ripped off occasionally. But voting for him again is insanity. There's not one good reason to do that.

The only issue I have with R12's link is that I'm not sure Kaut is giving enough weight to the fucking massive cheating that is about to take place.

[quote]I don’t recall Nate Silver ever giving Trump a 30% chance

You could fucking look it up, you know.

In summer of 2016, 538 gave Trump a 20% chance.

By November 1st, they very clearly said that Trump had multiple paths to victory if the popular vote was within 2-3 points, which it turned out it was.

The final 538 forecast before the election in 2016: Trump with a 28.6% chance.

I don't understand people who refuse to believe the A polls and who who think Nate is some kind of fraud.

R32 - it's in the Post article linked in r6.

on COVID: 49/40 (trust Biden/trust Trump)

FL: 47/46

It either indicates that voters in those states are retarded, or there's an issue with the poll.

R23 - I remember the discussion in 2016 here when 538 upped Trump's chances just before the election. It was actually 35% a few days before the election, and fell the 29 by election day thanks to poll convergence. Of course, none of us believe that it was possible, so we wrote off 538.

Brandy X. Li: a reporter whose grandparents were refugees from Nazi Germany related to me:

“I cannot help but remember a conversation I had with my grandfather about the firebombing of Dresden, whether he thought the Allies should be reproached for targeting civilians....He said—I remember this well—that it was a necessity, because nothing short of the sight of SEEING THEIR CITIES LEVELED would have broken the spell. The German public, he said, was not open to reason. They could not be persuaded to abandon Hitler....”

that comment haunted her, she said. Needless to say, we are seeing the same phenomenon here, and every day that Donald Trump has exposure to the public, he spellbinds his followers ever more deeply, as mental health experts are precisely the ones banned from comment.

You couldn't talk to ANYBODY about Trump's chances in 2016, R29, not just here but all over. I got a 24-hour ban on here when I brought up a state poll (can't even remember which) that showed Trump and HRC neck-and-neck. It was a good poll too, Siena I believe.

On Twitter, I'd point things out and get absolutely zero response, then I'd do a search and find maybe five other people bringing up the same red flags and no one engaging them, either. On Facebook I'd get shit from people who would say I was a "secret Trump lover."

Things started getting sketchy in the summer of 2016, when Brexit "won" and Comey did his press conference slamming HRC, and the NYT started having Marine Le Pen write op-eds for them -- there was just this weird rightwing shift to everything. Then HRC got sick at the 9/11 memorial and the GOP had that creepy foreign guy planted there to get video of it, they clearly knew she had pneumonia and were hoping to exploit it, and the media LOVED IT.

People just didn't want to admit that things had gotten real fucking weird, and to this day if you bring some of this stuff up, people have zero memory of it.

We get the government the media wants. The end.

R26 but why look it up when it’s so much more fun to get bitched out by a defensive DLer?

Don’t worry, it’s all in good fun.

She also just sort of writes offthe massive cheating, suppression, and general fuckery with the postal service like it can’t make a difference — when it’s already happening.

Who’s to say we don’t look back at 2020 and say “yeah...well, well...we were dealing with an unprecedented voting situation on so many levels, which made it so drastically different from any election in history” (which is all true). Polls never had to account for all these factors before, blah blah...

Polls usually tighten just before an election. That really hasn't been happening this year. Now, I'm literally seeing headlines about how the polls are indeed tightening. The media have a vested interest in making it look like a close race.

Harry Enten:

Yea, ABC's last poll had Trump by 4 in FL... This by 2... Well within the MoE... but the Biden by 7 in the state that will likely proved to be the key one... and the polling in PA has been good enough for Biden for a while. Trump needs a fairly wide polling miss.

Florida is always such a hot mess. I want to believe the polls, but I can't help but think about what happened there in 2000.

Trump's going to win.

The interesting thing about Florida is that it usually votes for the winning Presidential nominee. *But*, there has been the occasional exception. Eg. In 1992 Florida voted for George H. W. Bush even though Bill Clinton won the Presidency. (Bill Clinton would go on to win Florida in 1996).

Going to be a lot of shocked and disappointed people come next week.

The race is very, very close. I don’t know which way it will ultimately go, but thinking either side is +7, +9, +double digits in any of the battleground states is madness. Try +2 with MOE.

Don’t trust the polls. Pollsters like the Nates are there to sell clicks and talking points, not inform the average person.

WTF is Harry Enten trying to say? Trump has this?

[quote] Of course, none of us believe that it was possible, so we wrote off 538.

Because the got it fucking wrong astronomically so.

[quote] I don't understand people who refuse to believe the A polls and who who think Nate is some kind of fraud.

Because he is. He doesn’t even know basic geography.

[quote] By November 1st, they very clearly said that Trump had multiple paths to victory if the popular vote was within 2-3 points, which it turned out it was.

They change their minds 24 hours before the fucking election happened. They basically say Hillary or Biden May or may not win. Tell us something we don’t know. They’re a joke of a web site.

R40, no, Harry Enten is saying that the polls are holding up for Biden so far in the tipping point state of Pennsylvania and that Trump will need a much bigger polling error than 2016 to win.

Trump will win and we’ll have to hear 4 years about how it was rigged, the Russians did it, Boris, etc, etc. The US is a conservative country. Always has been. Period. The country is made up of uneducated fat slobs who are Fascists at heart. Once you know and accept this nothing will surprise you. Gays should not be living in the US. It hates us.

If Trump OR Biden wins, can we please just let it go? I'm open to both possibilities and would like to just have some peace over the next four years, regardless of who the winner is.

R46, that’s not going to happen. If Trump wins the entire country will be on fire.

I agree but it would be nice if we could seriously get along or just try to understand your opponents perspective. Identity politics of all kinds is the the death America. Thus county is turning to tribalism and it's not good. Seriously.

I will just say thank you, Poll Troll, just in case DL goes into prime time between now and Tuesday. You always keep things calm and sane.

r46 r48 I understand the evil of Trump and the stupidity of his supporters. That is what terrifies me.

Trudy honey , we’re all going to vote but your fake news makes us want to vote otherwise. Trudy, can you stop pease mad demo queen? You’re only hurting your own.

Thanks, R49. : )

Hope to see you here on Election Night.

I feel like if we can just make an effort to understand each others beliefs, there would not be so much hatred. I want to live in a country where you can vote for who you want proudly, can agree to disagree on issues, and can be free to express your opinions without getting cancelled. Why on earth would you vote for a party that supports looters and rioting over victims of systemic racism while also having a rap sheet a mile long with violent offenses. It's crazy. Those who were advocates of cancel culture are getting cancelled themselves. If you are a white male making decent money, why on earth would you vote democratic in this election? The chips are stacked against you. Sometimes you have to do whats best for you. Americans come before illegal immigrants and the benefits afford to them. It's madness.

[quote]If you are a white male making decent money, why on earth would you vote democratic in this election?

I'm a white male in my early forties. I'm also an oncology radiologist who makes an absolute shit ton of money. Do you really not understand why I'm voting for Biden instead of that racist, orange shit-stain who currently sits in the White House?

I'm sorry but you sound like a complete and utter moron.

Maybe, but I don't want to live in a world where white men are demonized and subjected to trial by twitter. I don't want to live in a city where BLM can loot and riot without consequences because we must pander for their vote while they vote for Trump. Good for you and your shit ton of money. If you make an upper middle class salary of 400K+ you are fucked and make sure you hire that black woman who is a terrible employee and has you by the balls when you don't kiss her ass.

R48, politics in the US has always been “identity politics”. The framers of the constitution built our voting system upon an “identity” (Wealthy, White, land-owning, male). Throughout our history, differences in “identity” have been weaponized and marginalized -look back at the treatment of native Americans, enslaved Africans, women, Chinese workers, Irish and Italian immigrants, German immigrants, 20th century immigrants, gays and lesbians, etc..

The US and the US political system has always been tribal - but I do believe we are at a point where the country will either collectively come together (for the most part) and “Make America Great”, anti-trumpian, of course; or fracture and rebuild. Either way, I think the US will change profoundly over the next decade.

If it is identity politics, then you better figure out who is one your side. You are fucking yourselves without even knowing it.

I hate when right wingers accuse liberals of "identity politics". The repub party is ALL about white, xtian, male heterosexual identity politics and people who either are wealthy or who put wealthy people on a pedestal. If you support leveling the playing field for everyone else, they label you as anti-American. This is not the fucking 1950s anymore. We should not be a society that is dominated by rich, white, heterosexual male xtians. There is room for everyone and too bad if the repubs don't like it.

I just really hope we see an increase in millennial voters. For whatever reason most of the media not paying attention to them. We don't need to see reporters going to more Trump rallies still trying to figure out why he has cult followers. The vast majority of them will not leave him so it's insane that the media keeps trying to figure them out. I haven't seen 1 millennial voters panel on either MSNBC or CNN. Maybe they've had them in hours I haven't watched but so far I'm not aware of any. Millennials have the numbers to cancel out the right wing baby boomer/remainder of silent gen and right wing half of gen x. What the top stories should be is how many millennials are voting/expected to vote. If Biden and the senate Democrats win, it will be because of millennials in battleground states. If Biden or the senate Democrats lose, it will be because of not high enough millennial turnout. By millennials I of course mean regardless of race.

R58, all the media is talking about is how the millennial/gen Z vote is the highest is has ever been in an election. It's voiced nonstop on every news outlets, left, right and center.

It’s true. They see the damage Trump Is doing

The mother of all the polls, according to Nate Silver, Sienna/NYT dropped a bunch of final state polls now. While not overly brilliant, they are overall good for Biden. The only state which Trump has advantage is FL, yet again. But even in FL Biden improved his position by 2 points from the last month. FL is gone, me think. So Biden better focus on the ones that he got more chances in.

WI is the biggest lead for Biden which is now showing big lead consistently across multiple polls. This along with strong numbers in AZ make me more hopeful.

President (New Mexico)

Biden (D) 54% Trump (R) 42%

10/23-10/29 by Research & Polling Inc. (B+) 1180 LV

Woof! Hope this was helpful!

Poll #136015 #ElectionTwitter

The Florida Democratic Party is weak, incompetent. All that money raised, and they still get their butts kicked???!!!! Pathetic

President (Wisconsin)

Biden (D) 52% Trump (R) 41% Jorgensen (L) 3%

10/26-10/30 by Siena College/The New York Times Upshot (A+) 1253 LV

Woof woof! Did I do a good job?

Poll #136019 #ElectionTwitter

President (Pennsylvania)

Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 43% Jorgensen (L) 2%

10/26-10/31 by Siena College/The New York Times Upshot (A+) 1862 LV

Woof! Can I have a treat?

Poll #136018 #ElectionTwitter

Uh r61, you misled me dude

President (Florida)

Biden (D) 47% Trump (R) 44% Jorgensen (L) 2% Hawkins (G) 1%

10/27-10/31 by Siena College/The New York Times Upshot (A+) 1451 LV

Woof woof! Have a nice day!

Poll #136017 #ElectionTwitter

President (Arizona)

Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 43% Jorgensen (L) 3%

10/26-10/30 by Siena College/The New York Times Upshot (A+) 1252 LV

Arf! Did I do a good job?

Poll #136016 #ElectionTwitter

This is bizarre approach to campaigning. Am I missing something? Why are they keep doing this to these people?

-------

President Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, PA had a chilling ending — literally — with thousands of the president’s supporters left stranded in the dark and cold, waiting for almost two hours for buses to take them back to their cars. And it wasn’t the first time this had happened.

A similar scene had unfolded Tuesday night at a Trump rally in Omaha, Nebraska, when Trump finished his speech and his supporters were left behind. The shuttles that had brought them from distant parking lots were no longer running, and the campaign had failed to arrange for adequate number of buses. Spending hours in frigid temperatures sent several people to the hospital and others received medical treatment at the scene.

Saturday’s Trump rallies in Pennsylvania were not quite as cold as that night in Nebraska, but reporters on the ground still found people unhappy after again spending hours in low temperatures and no organized transportation back to their cars. Trump had left on Marine One and once again the buses that brought people to the rally were nowhere in sight.

Striking finding from NYT/Siena: Biden has big leads among those who didn't vote in 2016. And they make up non-trivial portions of the electorate.

Here are Biden's leads, followed by their vote share:

WI +19 (11%) FL +17 (18%) PA +12 (18%) AZ +7 (22%)

It's a new electorate.

Trump's camp sought highly sensitive ballot security information from a county in Pennsylvania. They wanted names of people who transport the ballots and precise info on where ballots are stored. Thanks to an alarmed commissioner we know this. Were they planning to share w Putin?

“Trump advisers said their best hope was if the president wins Ohio and Florida is too close to call early in the night, depriving Mr. Biden a swift victory and giving Mr. Trump the room to undermine the validity of uncounted mail-in ballots”

If hard to see Biden winning WI by double digits but not winning PA or FL, apart from huge cheating and thuggery

4 good state polls for Biden this morning from Siena/New York Times.

Arizona (+6 Biden)

Florida (+3 Biden)

Pennsylvania (+6 Biden)

Wisconsin (+11 Biden)

Now that’s more like it!

Hopefully that will help calm down some of the Marying around here lately.

Have some confidence, boys. It’s Biden time. 😎

Come with me if you want to live.

LATEST NYT/Sienna polls

#BidenHarris2020 adv x age:

AZ +27 18-29 +19 30-44 -7 45-64 -1 65+

FL +32 18-29 +28 30-44 -17 45-64 +2 65+

PA +30 18-29 -2 30-44 -3 45-64 +18 65+

WI +21 18-29 +16 30-44 0 45-64 +15 65+

Yes, y’all don’t read the thread before posting polls that have Already been posted

[quote]This is bizarre approach to campaigning. Am I missing something? Why are they keep doing this to these people?

The hilarious thing is that a bunch of people on Twitter were like "Maybe they underestimated the crowd size and more people showed up"...except that they bussed them in, so unless time was accelerated and they started breeding....

I'm sure they're all "Please, sir, can I have another?" every time they're fucked over like this.

Seriously wtf is wrong with people in my age group?

Again in NYT/@SienaCollege Biden is at 39% of non college Whites in PA & 45 in WI, right around 60% of college+ whites in both, & 2/3 or more of people of color. Converging from state to state. That’s the Biden coalition across the Rustbelt & it remains his easiest path to 270.

Nice weather for most of the country should help the Democratic turnout. Thanks Mother Nature!

What is this woof woof shit?

[quote] Nice weather for most of the country should help the Democratic turnout.

The majority of Democrats already voted. This helps Republicans.

Why does 65+ have a number?

None of these polls matter. People voted early. Biden was up and down throughout the month. These polls only show where things stand now and Repugs are the ones voting.

r83 And it helps historically marginalized Democratic voters who prefer to vote in person.

Biden isn't getting Wisconsin. Support for Trump here is massive including in usually Democrat leaning areas.

The fact that Biden isn’t up by 50 in every state in the country just goes to show how awful the US is.

R87, you think you know something the great weight of pollsters and early voting statisticians don’t?

Yes, I do r89. I worked the census and drove all over the place, traveled within the state also to help out other areas. Trump support is through the roof.

We shall soon see, but I believe the average of the large number of polls saying otherwise

Anecdotal driving is laughable to polling science.

President (Florida)

Biden (D) 51% Trump (R) 47%

10/28-10/30 by RMG Research (B/C) 1200 LV

Arf! Can I have a treat?

Poll #136022 #ElectionTwitter

So the majority in Wisconsin want Nazis in power and the end of elections? 11% of blacks want a man whose father was openly a member of the KKK? People have lost their minds.

I don’t care what his father was or did. I care about Trump’s policies, rhetoric, agenda, and associations. need to focus on what matters.

I'm confused. Do the polls count votes already cast or not?

Twinks

[quote]I worked the census and drove all over the place, traveled within the state also to help out other areas. Trump support is through the roof.

'Im really torn between the scientific aggregation of Nate Silver at 538 and r87/r90's random blatherings from his drives.

[quote]This is bizarre approach to campaigning. Am I missing something? Why are they keep doing this to these people?

These people have supported a man that detests them and has actively undermined their interests for the past four years, the campaign knows they're not going to stop no matter what he does -- so why waste any effort on them?

The arf arf/woof woof shit is annoying as hell. I don't care that those polls are good for Biden, please...no more!

NYT: The Trump campaign is now automatically checking a box to have online donors make weekly recurring donations *through Dec. 14.*

It is the the Trump campaign's latest hyper-aggressive tactic as it readies for a prolonged post-election fight.

I got one poll call last week and at no point was I asked if I had already voted. (And I had)

Elderlez, did they ask if you intended to vote?

[quote] Anecdotal driving is laughable to polling science.

Polling “science” is laughable on its own. The only thing that matters is voting.

Me too, Elderlez. I didn’t realize how tense the caller was until I volunteered that I already voted for Biden. Her voice relaxed, then she immediately hung up.

[quote]It is the the Trump campaign's latest hyper-aggressive tactic as it readies for a prolonged post-election fight.

With Trump, never assume malice before you eliminate grift.

Final pre-election national NBC/WSJ poll among registered voters:

Biden 52% Trump 42%

Oct 29-31, +/- 3.1%

Was Biden 53%, Trump 42% two weeks ago

I looked it up R100, that "woof" and "arf" stuff is from a Twitter account called Stella2020woof, which tweets out 538 poll numbers from various pollsters.

I wish they would stop doing it but it doesn't seem like our woof troll even reads the thread.

Also in the new NBC/WSJ poll:

-- Trump job rating: 45% approve, 52% disapprove (was 44%-54% two weeks ago)

-- Trump fav/unfav: 43%-52% (-9)

-- Biden fav/unfav: 45%-42% (+3)

His favorability rating is still shockingly high

-- Trump economic approval: 55%-41%

-- Trump coronavirus approval: 40%-57%

Here is our writeup of the new NBC/WSJ poll, plus a PDF of the filled-in survey

NBC NEWS/WSJ FINAL NATIONAL POLL

BIDEN +10.

R104 You are posting in a thread dedicated to posting the latest polls.

[quote]11% of blacks want a man whose father was openly a member of the KKK?

They're either in denial about it, don't believe it, or are of the far-left "the Democrats were the real slave owners and racists, the Republicans saved the blacks with Emancipation" type.

That’s not a far left view. It’s rightwing propaganda

2.7M Virginians already have voted, which represents 68% of total votes cast in #Virginia 4 years ago. The # of early votes could rise as localities report there are 191,000 mail ballots that could arrive in time to be counted.

R115, the one thing that makes a little bit more hopeful is that Biden continues to show a health lead among INDEPENDENTS both among who already voted and yet to vote.

Yeah, And is doing unusually well with whites, great with college educated whites

[quote]That’s not a far left view. It’s rightwing propaganda

Oh, it's both. The far left were very much into the "Hillary owned slaves" narrative and the "white women were the true evil during slavery, not white men" narrative, and the "Democrats were pro slavery and still demand blacks vote for them, like they're on a plantation" is part of all that.

The rightwing version is "We're the party of Lincoln and we SAVED your black asses so you owe us." It's a little different but there are a lot of similarities.

Go out to Twitter and search for "plantation Democrats" without the quotes and see for yourself. It's kind of astonishing to see far leftist tankie types and QAnoners say the same thing, but that's where we are right now.

Iowa Presidential Polling:

Trump (R): 48% (-) Biden (D): 47% (-1)

Emerson / October 31, 2020 / n=604 / MOE 3.9% / Telephone/Online

(% chg w Oct 21)

The final Emerson College poll before the November 3rd election in Michigan finds the former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 52% to 45%. 3% of voters plan to vote for someone else and only 1% remain undecided. Since the last Emerson poll in Michigan earlier this month, Biden has held at 52% and Trump has gone up three-points, from 42% to 45%.

The final Emerson College poll before the November 3rd election in Ohio finds the former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 50% to 48%. Two percent (2%) of voters plan to vote for someone else and 1% are undecided.

The final Emerson College poll before the November 3rd election in Iowa finds between President Donald Trump narrowly leading former Vice President Joe Biden 47% to 46%. 4% of voters plan to vote for someone else and 3% are undecided. Since an Emerson Iowa poll in October, President Trump has lost one point and Biden has stayed the same.

Not bad at all for Emerson. Biden should be quite happy with those numbers

Final Emerson College Poll (A pollster) confirms the Iowa situation first reported by Seltzer poll yesterday. However shows Greenfield leading by +4.

IA: Trump leads by 1point.

OH: Biden+1

MI: Biden+7

Michigan Polling:

Presidential: Biden (D): 48% (-) Trump (R): 41% (+2)

Senate: Peters (D): 47% (+2) James (R): 42% (+3)

EPIC-MRA / October 28, 2020 / n=600 / MOE 4% / Telephone

(% chg w Oct 19)

For Trump to win, he must now have polling errors that are thought to be statistically impossible

Fox News: In the head-to-head matchup, Biden leads Trump by 52-44 percent among likely voters. That's a bit tighter than the race was three weeks ago, when Biden led by 53-43 percent (October 3-6).

R117, there are 191,000 mail in ballots in Virginia that *could* be counted? What does that mean, they’re in the mail and if DeJoy orders them stalled, they won’t be counted?

Of the final Ohio polls in 2016, Emerson was the most accurate. Had Trump up 7 & he won by 8. They have him down 1.

R130, some in the mail, but probably most are for people who havent tried to return them. I know of people who requested mail in ballot, but ended up voting early inperson.

Many people who requested mail ballots got spooked by postal shenanigans and are voting inperson

President (National)

Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 44%

10/27-10/31 by IBD/TIPP (A/B) 1072 LV

Arf arf! Can I have a treat?

Poll #136041 #ElectionTwitter

Biden has to happy with today’s polls with less than 48 hours left to November 3

President (National)

Biden (D) 54% Trump (R) 42%

10/18-10/31 by USC Dornsife (B/C) 5364 LV

Arf! Have a nice day!

Poll #136029 #ElectionTwitter

I STILL 4 years later refuse to believe that the 2016 election, where it was thought by EVERYONE for trump to even have a chance to win he had to win at least one of the battleground states and he ends up winning ALL OF THEM??? every single poll from EVERYWHERE were all wrong, completely wrong for the first time?...

Nate Silver: To the extent there's been tightening in national polls, it's been from Trump clawing away at undecideds. Biden is essentially unchanged from his peak at ~52, but Trump has improved from a nadir of 41.7 to 43.5 now.

Biden maintaining a stable lead in final days +10 in NBC/WSJ poll. In early voting the turnout is double of what it was in 2016, so we are not having the issue of low turnout. This is the recipe for a blowout. Get out all our votes. We need the Senate & state legislatures! VOTE!

On Tuesday, let's keep our fingers crossed that Biden wins Ohio, Texas, or Florida. They all count quickly, so we should know the results by midnight. If Biden wins any one of them, it is over.

And if he wins none of them, r140?

Something to keep in mind: a lot of black voters are uneasy about voting by mail, have long preferred to cast an election day ballot

No doubt lots of Rs will show Tuesday.

But just look at our NC poll last week: 30% of black folk said they’ll vote on e day

NC is already at 61% turnout now. dems already have a 250k lead by party registration while there are about 1M dems and 800k repubs left to cast. NC will be decided by indies

Agree, R133. At least, anecdotally. I have several friends who are working the polls in a couple of states and they have had a lot of people bringing in their mail in/absentee ballots for surrender, deciding to vote early instead. People DO NOT TRUST the Postal Service or that their vote will count, even if it's mailed on time.

IMO, Election Day is going to be bonkers and it's not just going to help Trump. It's going to help Biden and AMERICA.

Then we've got a wait, r141, until PA finishes the count. Biden has multiple very viable paths, but winning TX, OH, or FL would end the discussion that night. Trump could throw all the tantrums he wanted, but we could safely ignore them.

[quote] On Tuesday, let's keep our fingers crossed that Biden wins Ohio, Texas, or Florida.

Texas is not turning blue. Focus on the states that have a chance: PA, MI, WI

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorsed Trump this weekend, ensuring itself a place in future history textbooks examining the mass insanity that gripped America from 2016-2020.

About 90% of ballots returned so far Ohio

North Carolina would also point to a Biden win. If he holds his polling lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, he only needs one other flipped state and it could be any of Florida, NC, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Texas or Georgia. With Florida or Texas he doesn't even need WI-M.

In 2016, Arizona and Michigan didn't report results for a week. Ohio was called at 10:35 EST, Florida at 10:50, NC at 11:10, Pennsylvania at 1:30 AM and Wisconsin put him over the top at 2:30. We could know the answer even before California closes, or it could be days.

I think NC is another state to watch on the election night. Even Chuck Todd and Andrea Mitchel say that this state will give us an idea who wins the earliest on the election night.

Just 6% of voters are undecided, vs 16% in 2016 after the Comey letter and email scandal that drifted voters to Trump in final days. Stable race. Just run up our lead and turn as much blue down ticket as possible!

Jon Ralston has seen enough:

And now, the end is near….

I’ll have a post up in a bit.

Very big batch of new Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada.

New Totals: DEM 206,024 (+14,980) REP 86,752 (+6,420) OTH 105,474 (+10,721)

DEM Mail Ballot Advantage in Clark: 119,272 DEM Advantage with Early and Mail: 89,436

@RalstonReports @sorceror43

27.8% of early voters in battleground states didn't vote in 2016. Modeled partisanship shows the Dem margin 7 points better among these voters than the '16 voters. Polling shows Biden is even stronger among these surge voters. This is not the '16 electorate.

In every single battleground state in the South and Sunbelt, Asian voters have already exceeded their total 2016 turnout, including Texas where their turn out stands at 151% of final 2016 vote totals, and Georgia at 141%.

More Latino and Asian voters have already cast a ballot in Georgia than did in the entirety of the 2016 election.

Dave Wasserman: Most striking: stability of the race and Biden's lead. But a strange/fascinating twist: Biden's weakest point, September, was also his high-point w/ non-whites.

Since then, Trump has narrowed Biden's lead w/ Black & Hispanic voters, even as Biden has stretched his lead overall.

Although it doesn't tell us anything about who will actually win FL, here are the largest Dem early turnout advantages vs. GOP (among FL counties w/ 100k+ registrants):

1. Alachua +9 2. Sarasota +7 3. Palm Beach +7 4. Pinellas +5 5. Lake +4 6. Leon +3 7. Broward +3

And, here are the largest GOP early turnout advantages vs. Dems (among FL counties w/ 100k+ registrants):

1. Miami-Dade +8 2. Bay +3 3. Clay +3 4. Sumter +3 5. Osceola +3 6. Lee +1 7. Escambia +1

Stable

Turnout of FL's registrants so far:

Dems: 64.3% GOPers: 64.1% NPA/others: 49.7%

The problem for Trump w/ this map now is that not only would polls need to be very wrong again in PA, but also:

- AZ, where polls in recent cycles have undershot *Dems* - #NE02, where 10+ surveys (mostly private) have shown Biden up 5-12 points

Miami is the only county in FL which sours Dems chances. Somehow Dems are laying very low there so far.

[quote]27.8% of early voters in battleground states didn't vote in 2016. Modeled partisanship shows the Dem margin 7 points better among these voters than the '16 voters. Polling shows Biden is even stronger among these surge voters. This is not the '16 electorate.

I don't think this can be stated loud enough. Do people really think that 27.8 all went to Trump? I'm not gonna lie and say that I'm ready to call this thing over, but the numbers don't lie and I refuse to believe that the polls are just that far off. Joe Biden is not Hilary Clinton. And there has been no Comey letter.

Miami-Dade is the skunk 🦨 at the party

Posting this again, in case it was missed.

It was brought up in a podcast I was listening to back in early September that fake news is rife amongst the Latino community in Miami. And apparently, it's coming from all directions - radio, WhatsApp, television, billboards, etc.

I guess it's working

Another article about Miami Dade

And here is the current update of Miami Dade

2020 #earlyvote as % of 2016 total turnout

HI 111% TX 108% MT 99% NC 95% GA 94% NM 93% NV 91% FL 91% TN 90% OR 88% CO 87% AZ 87% NJ 80%

Miami-Dade County: A Democratic stronghold, it's not one Trump would hope to win.

But this majority-Hispanic area was a disappointment for Democrats in 2018, especially in heavily Cuban-American precincts. Younger Cuban voters have started identifying as Trump Republicans here.

Video of the police brutality and pepper spraying (including children, seniors and handicapped) at the March to the Polls rally in Graham, NC

R103 yes they did ask that. It was a robocall voice so I didn’t have any options that weren’t 1-5 on my key pad. I was also asked about local races so it wasn’t a national poll.

November 1, 2020 at 11:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard 79 Comments

A CBS News/YouGov poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump among those who have already voted, 66% to 32%.

However, Trump leads among those who plan on voting on Election Day, 69% to 27%.

Presidential National Average Lead 2 Days To E-Day:

2004: Bush +1.9 2008: Obama +6.4 2012: Obama +0.7 2016: Clinton +2.9 2020: Biden: +8.6

NBC/WSJ poll by gender:

men: Trump 48-47 women: Biden 57-37

white men not so ready to move forward in this country.

NORTH CAROLINA‼️- 4.5 million have voted, 96% of the 2016 total.

by party affiliation: Dems - 1,694,852 Reps - 1,438,129 No Party - 1,374,232

per NYT, 30% of Black voters plan to vote on Nov. 3. Keep going NC! Feeling good about stealing NC in 2020, and its 15 electorals.

23,975,574 Americans who didn't vote in the 2016 election have already voted.

7,816,118 of these voters were voting for the first time in their life.

Jon Ralston has spoken: Early voting blog is updated.

With Clark Dem firewall approaching unprecedented 90K voters after overnight update, Trump's path in NV leads off a mail ballot cliff.

The dice are cast, and they look like snake eyes for the GOP.

Brief post, more later:

NC has cast 4,531,618 (thru 10/31) out of 7,342,553 voters = 61.7% turnout. Overall 2016 turnout = 69%

Of NC Counties w/ the highest early vote totals, best turnout so far:

Brunswick 68.2% Buncombe 67.8% Wake 67.5% Orange 67.5% Durham 66.6% Moore 65.3% Henderson 64.6%

#NCPOL

In an effort to try and be a little positive R176, Those white male numbers can't be making the Trump campaign feel good. In 2016 according to CNN exit polls white men went to Trump 62/31

I agree. Men 48-47 is actually really good for Biden.

Yep, I hope and think Biden's slippage with Latinos and black males will be offset by his strength with the more numerous seniors, white college-educated, and surburbans. Biden is doing better with whites than any Democrat since LBJ.

NYT: “R.N.C. turnout models vary by state, but in some scenarios, it shows Mr. Trump performing worse than he does in the campaign’s own polls, two people briefed on the numbers said.”

[QUOTES] Yep, I hope and think Biden's slippage with Latinos and black males

These Latino and black voters are complete idiots if they vote for Trump and they will deserve what they get for that should he win again.

Virginia: We had another 2,330 early voters today in Alexandria.

A total of 36,532 voters have voted in person and 27,752 have voted by mail; 62% of active voters.

4,578 ballots were mailed out and can still be returned.

The polls will be open on Tuesday from 6 AM until 7 PM!

Vote!

[quote]NYT: “R.N.C. turnout models vary by state, but in some scenarios, it shows Mr. Trump performing worse than he does in the campaign’s own polls, two people briefed on the numbers said.”

Someone on Election Twitter pointed out that the Trump campaign tends to hire pollsters that will tell Trump what he wants to hear. There's one guy who the RNC actually blackballed because he was so bad who's working for Trump. I can't remember his name.

As an example, he was hired by former VA Congresswoman Barbara Comstock in 2018 and kept telling her she had a really good chance. She went to the RNCC asking for money, they gave her a bunch, and she lost by 12.5 points.

In 2016, final NBC/WSJ poll showed Clinton up 44/40 (16% undecided/3rd party).

Final NBC/WSJ poll of 2020: Biden 52/42 (6% undecided).

This is the best snapshot of the final weekend. Clinton was at 44 the weekend before election day, while Biden is at 52. And it's a BIG deal that there are only 6% undecided voters this year compared to 16% in 2016. In 2016, most of the undecideds broke for Trump, while this year they are breaking for Biden.

44/40 should have been a red alert warning in 2016. To be that far below 50 with all those undecideds is to have no confidence in the Outcomex

Michigan Polling:

Presidential: Biden (D): 52% (-) Trump (R): 45% (+3) Jorgensen (L): 1% (-2) Hawkins (G): 1% (+1)

Senate: Peters (D): 50% (-2) James (R): 45% (+2) Dern (NL): 2% (+2)

Mitchell Research / Oct 29 / n=817 / MOE 3.4% / IVR

(% chg w Oct 27)

Last time the issue was Hillary. I know that is anathema on here, but it's true. This time the issue is Trump.

R191 - Trump + Covid + Economy + Racial Unrest = BIDEN win!!!

[quote] Final Emerson College Poll (A pollster) confirms the Iowa situation first reported by Seltzer poll yesterday. However shows Greenfield leading by +4. IA: Trump leads by 1point.

How does that “confirm the Iowa situation”? The Selzer poll was ridiculous. This one seems grounded in reality.

I don’t know how there are so many people in this thread who can’t read—no, Wisconsin is not polling well for Trump; no, Trump is not doing well in the NYT/Siena poll of Florida out today.

This whole thread is a dumpster full of shitty diapers on fire. No more election threads for me on Datalounge until Wednesday. You people are nuts.

Great point. Trump has been frustrated with his inability to dent Biden’s favorability. So he has turned the subject to Hillary, BLM, Antifa, Hunter, etc. Morever, he lacks heart in attacking Biden. He finds him ‘sleepy.’

Moreover

After asshole Dump, “Sleepy Joe” sounds awfully nice.

BREAKING:

Arizona passes its 2016 total vote

BIG NEWS: Chicago is already on pace to hit 750,000 people voting early, shattering previous records. Your vote is your superpower. Exercise it on or before Election Day.

A friend of mine, her cousin has a big Republican polling firm. Trump co fired him due to him not giving them the favorable poll numbers Trump wanted. Needless to say my friend’s cousin went nuts after blasting the holy hell out of him. She just looked at him and said, “What did you really expect?”

And finally for now...

Paul Begala, who lives in Austin, said this morning on CNN that Biden and Hegar will probably win in Texas. He said the massive turnout favors Democrats.

80% turnout in Texas was previously unfathomable

Don't stop now.

Run. It. Up.

Horrible pollster but

North Carolina Presidential Polling:

Trump (R): 48% Biden (D): 44% Jorgensen (L): 2%

InsiderAdvantage / October 31, 2020 / n=450 / MOE 4.6% / IVR

(R-Leaning Commissioner)

#ElectionDay

North Carolina Presidential Polling:

Trump (R): 49% (-) Biden (D): 47% (+1) Jorgensen (L): 3% (+1)

Trafalgar / October 29, 2020 / n=1082 / MOE 3% / IVR

(% chg w Oct 22)

#ElectionDay

If 90m + people have already voted early (by mail or in person), does anyone know how many registered voters are eligible to vote in 2020?

You don’t send Obama to Michigan if you’re up by +9. Something is off with the numbers.

President (Florida)

Biden (D) 48% Trump (R) 47%

10/29-10/31 by Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (C+) 800 LV

Arf! Have a nice day!

Poll #136056 #ElectionTwitter

TX Supreme Court: Harris County drive-through voting is valid

Suddenly, People are starting to feel good about North Carolina

Re: R211?

YASSSSSSSSS!

Source r211?

National GE: Biden 51% (+8) Trump 43%

CCES/@YouGovAmerica, 50,908 LV, 9/29-10/27

I did a quick search and I don’t see what r211 is posting. There is a hearing with a federal (Dumpster appointed) judge tomorrow.

[quote]You don’t send Obama to Michigan if you’re up by +9. Something is off with the numbers.

It could be any number of things. It's probably related to Biden's internal polling or down ballot races. The numbers have been insanely stable.

This made me laugh.

The GOP are in such a great position, Rudy is begging ARKANSAS to get out and vote against socialist sleepy Joe!!

R216

[quote] BREAKING: Texas Supreme Court has DENIED Republicans’ request to toss out 100,000+ votes cast in drive-through lanes in Harris County. The petition will go in front of a federal judge tomorrow.

Thanks r219. This is a travesty, though, with the petition with the federal judge.. The state Supreme Court should be the last word, except for a final appeal to the US Supreme Court. A federal judge has no jurisdiction in this stuff!!

National GE: Biden 54% (+11) Trump 43% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 52% (+7) Republicans 45%

@USCDornsife Tracking Poll, LV, 10/18-31

A partisan federal judge should not be above a state's supreme court.

So Biden’s going to Ohio tomorrow. Interesting. Does he think he has a chance there?

Here is Cohn's comment R223

And Nate's

R224/r225 yeah I’d be having him camp out in PA for the next 48 hrs to fucking lock in that 270 but that’s just me.

I guess the only wrench in that is wanting to win in a state that counts fast. But I’m afraid he’s spreading himself out too thin (I mean, honestly, I doubt he has any chance in Ohio).

Comedian Brent Terhune with the Trump Train

In 2106, #Wisconsin was decided by just 20,000 votes. Meanwhile 460K low-income, eligible Wisconsinites did not vote in that election. An increase of 4.9% of the non-voting low-income electorate would’ve equaled the margin of victory for WI in 2016. #VOTE

#BREAKING #Election2020 #Wisconsin

#Biden: 53% (+10) Trump: 43% Jorgensen (L): 2%

Oct. 27 - Nov. 1 | 696 LV Reuters/Ipsos

Biden has led Trump in every state poll we have run this year in PA, WI and MI.

The latest (Oct. 27-Nov.1) MI: Biden+10 WI: Biden+10 PA: Biden+7

Fuck Florida

Fuck Iowa

Fuck Texas

It’s all coming down to what I’ve been saying on here for two years: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Joe Biden wins those three states, he wins the election. And Pennsylvania is the key to everything.

Relax. Make a drink, pop the recliner back, kick your shoes off and get ready to be happy cause the man we’ve selected for this mission is about to stick the landing. It’s Biden time. 😎

AXIOS: President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's "ahead," according to three sources familiar with his private comments.

That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.

For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.

Trump can say whatever the fuck he wants, r232. But the electoral college will vote his ass out.

I was going to post, r233, that the networks would probably refuse to carry that, but I keep forgetting how much they love Dump.

R232 is exactly the reason why Biden is going to Ohio. If you can win Ohio - and it will be called on election night - he has likely already won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. With Ohio, or Texas, or Florida in Bidens column by 11pm, Trump can stomp his feet all he wants, but it's over.

Tbe problem with Pennsylvania is that it's going to take days and days to count all the ballots, and the GOP is ready to fight tooth and nail to get everything discarded that they can. This is a smart play on Bidens part.

Broward is at 96% of 2016 vote total (843,000)

64.0% turnout currently (was 71.7% in 2016)

Don’t forget about North Carolina and Georgia as other options for Election Day wins. If Biden is declared the winner of one of those on Tuesday, it makes it much harder from Trump to claim he’ll win the whole thing.

Don’t forget about North Carolina and Georgia as other options for Election Day wins. If Biden is declared the winner of one of those on Tuesday, it makes it much harder from Trump to claim he’ll win the whole thing.

I would like Biden to win Florida, Texas, and Arizona -- on principle.

And to make the fat fuck's head explode.

Georgia

Fuck these people r240.

I hope this motivates people to vote.

The comments on this tweet are amazing

[quote] OMG: as Donald Trump speaks in Hickory, North Carolina the structure holding up the American flag collapsed behind the crowd and the press area.

[quote] Strong metaphor vibes here

[quote] Even the flag can’t take it anymore!

Akron, Ohio

[quote] Almost 2 hours after early vote center closed, they’re still voting in Summit County. (You get to stay in line)

CES likely voter estimates for 5 key swing states:

FL (N=3,755): Biden 49 - Trump 47

GA (N=1,456): Biden 48 - Trump 47

NC (N=1,627): Biden 49 - Trump 45

PA (N=2,703): Biden 52 - Trump 44

TX (N=2,947): Trump 49 - Biden 47

I think that not only will we not know some states results right away due to mail in ballots but because I think people are still going to be in line after midnight in some of these counties where Repug SoSs have given like one voting machine for 100,000 black voters.

I also think that people are underestimating how many black and Hispanic voters are showing up on election day. They are expecting a line of old white Repugs. I think they're going to get a line of young black and brown men and women quietly saying 'fuck you' with their eyes.

Florida numbers have tightened with R advantage.

I'm relatively intelligent and I can't figure out what the fuck that link is saying R247.

They are basing all of this on 2016 numbers, right? There are huge numbers of Democrats who didn't vote in 2016, there are a number of Repugs who are voting Dem, and some of those Repugs they are guessing are waiting until election day are just going to stay home.

NBC News: Trump says he's sending in his lawyers as soon as the election ends to review swing state votes.

He's such a fucking moron. Someone should tell Trump that EVERYONE'S lawyers are going EVERYWHERE, just as they do EVERY SINGLE ELECTION.

He's just throwing a bone to his base r250

Dave Wasserman:

There's an excellent chance President Trump is headed for the biggest repudiation of a first-term president since Jimmy Carter in 1980 (9.7%) and an outside chance he's headed for the biggest since Herbert Hoover in 1932 (17.7%).

To avoid either being true, Trump would need to lose the popular vote by less than the 5.6% George H. W. Bush lost it in 1992. And with two days to go, that would require a pretty significant polling error.

So, basically, Giuliani will be having one busy fucking night.

[quote]And with two days to go, that would require a pretty significant polling error.

I really wish they would stop saying this. They are playing the Repug's game and giving them cover for their cheating. "Just one of those huge polling errors. No cheating here!"

[quote] I'm relatively intelligent and I can't figure out what the fuck that link is saying [R247].

Trump is down less than 100k votes even before Election Day with a near 15% advantage from in person early voting (IPEV).

Wasserman better hope he’s right otherwise there’s going to be a lot of angry, mislead voters out here.

On this Sunday night ... I’m kind of ... I don’t know ... actually feeling confident for Biden?

I’m not really admitting that out loud to anyone though

I feel the same way, r257.

Like ... if I relax too much, I will jinx it.

It’s absurd to not be confident. The question isn’t whether Biden will win, it’s by how much and how the rest of the Democratic Party will fare. I’m more worried about taking the senate, because if Mitch McConnell is still the senate majority leader next year then any plans for substantive legislative progress are out the window. The only thing we’ll be able to hold onto is that Trump and McConnell won’t have four more years of judicial appointments, including the Supreme Court.

Polly, a Canadian born AI (Artificial Intelligence) predicts a Biden win.

Why do these analysts assume all registered voters are voting for their own party?

I try and stay away from the poll information and what pundits are saying for a couple of hours and just like a crack addict I am back online reading every theory and prediction. I just want to be able to sleep and stop stress eating after Tuesday

[quote]Why do these analysts assume all registered voters are voting for their own party?

Especially since Trump has lost the elderly. These are old people who just didn't vote before or who just registered at the age of 73. It's the ones who are registered Repugs telling Trump to go fuck himself.

*AREN'T old people who...

I'm in the same position, r262. I've sworn off these threads five times a day for what feels like the past 20 weeks.

I love Joe Biden but one thing I won’t miss, if it doesn’t happen, is hearing the name Beau Biden every second sentence

Well r266 I look at it this way: If Biden wins, we won't have to hear the name Hunter Biden 10x a day. I'd rather hear Beau's name myself.

There are three phone banks happening tomorrow if anyone has time to volunteer. Jack Black is hosting one at 2pmct, Emily and Zoey Deschanel at 4pm ct and Jason Bateman at 6pm ct

I might be able to volunteer at 6pm with Jason Bateman. Love him

[quote]I look at it this way: If Biden wins, we won't have to hear the name Hunter Biden 10x a day.

Do you think that a Biden win will make Tucker, Hannity, Ingraham etc. magically turn into Maddow, Nicole Wallace and O'Donnell at the stroke of midnight?

I could hear Beau Biden's name a million times a day if it meant that I would never have to see that smug cunt Ivanka and her waxed face eunuch Jared ever again.

There are going to be a LOT of people here with egg on their face on Tuesday when its beyond clear Trump will win.

Sure Jan

R272 The joke will be on you.

Thanks Beto!

Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Republicans — not Trump, dozens and dozens of individual state legislators across multiple states — have acted to deliberately ensure slow counting of mail-in ballots so they can later complain that the slow dribbling in of mail votes looks suspicious.

The FBI said Sunday that its San Antonio office is investigating an incident after video was taken of a caravan of Trump supporters surrounding and then following a Biden campaign bus on Friday.

True to form, Cheeto tweeted that "in his opinion" the caravan were patriots and did nothing wrong!

[QUOTE] I love Joe Biden but one thing I won’t miss, if it doesn’t happen, is hearing the name Beau Biden every second sentence

Try losing a child and see how much time you spend thinking about them for the rest of your life. In the meantime, fuck off.

New York City boarding up for the election.

Anybody else skeerd?

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth Poll, will be on Morning Joe with the final Pennsylvania numbers:

@GeoffRBennett · 7h The White House on lockdown: A federal law enforcement source tells NBC that beginning tomorrow, crews will build a “non-scalable” fence to secure the WH complex, Ellipse and Lafayette Square. 250 National Guardsmen have been put on standby, reporting to Metro Police officials.

@RVAwonk 1h Is this because of the pandemic? Or is this the first step of Trump barricading himself inside the White House in preparation for a likely electoral loss?

[quote] New York City boarding up for the election. Anybody else skeerd?

Big cities will burn, like they did with BLM, but the normal parts of the country will be fine. I’m glad I live and work in suburbia.

If Trump wins the entire country will go up in flames and they know it. It will make the LA Riots look like kid stuff.

R282, most of your shit comes from cities so you will be greatly affected.

Nate Silver posts Morning Consult's final polls

Pennsylvania Biden up 9 !! (likely voters)

Is Morning Consult any good? Couldn't find their rating at 538 site.

The rest of Morning Consult swing states -- if PA isn't giving me a heart attack, Michigan is - but Electoral Vote (link) has MI higher...

AZ B2; CO B13; FL B6; GA B2; IN T11; MI B7; MN B9; MO T9; NC B1; OH T3; PA B9; SC T7; TX tie; WI B13.

R285, Morning Consult has a B/C ranking from 538.

The polls are wrong.

Monmouth PA final poll is out and Biden's lead has shrunk since last poll by about 3-4points. Still Biden +7 in high turnout and +5 in low turn out.

Watch neither of them get to 270. Something is going to go terribly wrong.

R289, the Monmouth poll for PA is in the same range as the other high-quality polls from Siena/NYT, ABC/Post, etc.. 5-7 points seems to be the consensus lead for Biden in PA.

Why is anyone even modeling a low turnout election? We know already it’s a high turnout election based on the record number of early voters.

Trump is planning TWO events in MI today, in the final day of campaigning. Very strange choice, given that MI is long gone for him according to everyone including his own campaign staff.

Why was he in Iowa and Georgia? They're not that swingy.

R292, Monmouth says its low turnout modelling means a scenario in which a large number of mail ballots get rejected.

R295, I liked that they went there. Even under that scenario it looks like Biden still has an edge.

Maybe the GOP internals say they are, R294?

Here's Florida man doin' his thing last night:

President Trump daydreamed aloud at a Florida campaign rally about how he would beat up Joe Biden if he had the chance.

Said Trump: “Those legs have gotten very thin. Not a lot of base. You wouldn’t have to close, you wouldn’t have to close the fist.”

Trump’s musings were met with a chant from his supporters: “Kick his ass!”

.@realDonaldTrump Approval:

Approve 45% Disapprove 52%

NBC News/The Wall Street Journal

Trump is planning TWO events in MI today, in the final day of campaigning. Very strange choice, given that MI is long gone for him according to everyone including his own campaign staff.

I'll bet he's going to strongly encourage (if not outright tell) the crazed right-wingers to unleash hell if he loses. Remember, the Oklahoma City bombing plot was hatched in...Michigan

[quote]Watch neither of them get to 270.

That only happens if there's a faithless elector, I believe.

Here's the chart for the Monmouth Voter Models of Pennsylvania:

[quote] I'll bet he's going to strongly encourage (if not outright tell) the crazed right-wingers to unleash hell if he loses. Remember, the Oklahoma City bombing plot was hatched in...Michigan

Wow. This makes sense. Sadly.

[quote] Watch neither of them get to 270. . . . That only happens if there's a faithless elector, I believe.

No, that’s not correct There are 538 electoral votes (all of the states, plus three for DC). Half of that is 269, so to get to a tie you don’t need any elector to change his or her vote.

A 269-269 tie, while possible, is not very likely.

This is not going to end well. I’m not optimistic at all. Trump is going to steal this election and there is going to be absolute chaos in the streets. The UN needs to be involved.

He will declare victory. Is that why the super high fence is going around the White House.

That's what I thought when I read that R306. He's creating a fortress, complete with soldiers (National Guard).

Will we have to storm the Bastille? Will the military be on his side or ours?

[quote] Very strange choice, given that MI is long gone for him according to everyone including his own campaign staff.

“His own campaign staff” Link? Don’t trust polls, don’t trust strategized press releases, trust where the candidates go.

The fear mongering at R300– give a rest. You sound as unhinged as the Q Anon people.

He can declare victory all he wants. It doesn’t matter.

But the next two months are going to be chaotic.

Brian Kemp has fortified the GA state house as well. They’re up to something. They know something we don’t.

America has been taken over by a dictator.

[quote]America has been taken over by a dictator.

Can we please put the hyperbole on hold until any of this actually happens?

I’m afraid the Republicans will throw out enough votes to elect Trump. They can disqualify mail in votes by claiming the signatures don’t match, or they arrived too late. There’s been a lot of mail in votes found undelivered in post offices piled up in swing states.

If you haven’t voted, vote in person.

I am going to feel amazingly sick over the next two days

r312 I woke up this morning with a terrible knot in my stomach.

BREAKING:

Nate Silver of 538 calls the election for either Biden or Trump

Dave Wasserman released his prediction. He had Trump winning Florida, but the rest of the swing states going to Biden.

If Biden takes Florida, it's all over for Trump.

There's still a chance for a blow out. And this chance is way higher than the chance of Biden losing.

Courage, my friends!

Nate models probability r314. Either you understand shat that means or you don't.

I thought R314 was joking but Nate's Twitter thread is a lot of blather that sounds like he's equivocating.

But 538 has Biden at "clearly favored" at 90% chance with Trump having a 9% chance. And I guess that 1% is "obliterated by a meteor" or something, I'm not up to reading the whole article.

Trump winning Florida on election night would be worst case scenario. I know Biden doesn’t need it to win but if he wins it that basically ends the trump campaign and no amount of lawsuits will matter. It also doesn’t help if trump is wildly ahead on election night. Just more ammo for him to say it was “stolen” from him.

I’m so scared.

[quote]He's creating a fortress, complete with soldiers (National Guard). Will we have to storm the Bastille?

If you do, please don't break anything.

He can hole up in the White House all he wants, the president can be president wherever they are. Biden will just be president elsewhere while we try to figure out how to get Trump out of the White House before he stains all of the upholstery.

[quote] Brian Kemp has fortified the GA state house as well. They’re up to something. They know something we don’t.

On the other hand, I want to hold a little hope that maybe it is because he's afraid of the monster he created coming for him when GA goes for Biden

[quote] Tbh wouldn't be shocked by any of the 16 possible win/loss combinations in FL/GA/NC/TX (although it's more likely the states fall mostly in one direction than split down the middle).

[quote] It's a big reason why the line between ~290 and ~400 EVs for Biden is astonishingly thin.

What Nate is explaining is even though odds are Biden will win, the probability of Trump winning is 10% not zero.

Since idiots didn't seem to get a 30% chance of Trump winning was not a 0% percent chance in 2016, he has to explain this.

R317

It's a joke. Stop taking yourself so seriously.

It's 9%, not 10%. The 1% is for the chance of a tie where the House decides.

Nate's term "clearly favoured" = "meteor need to hit the earth for Trump to win", which is possible but how probable?

Please. Trump is going to be in Florida by the end of the week.

You bitches give him far too much credit.

Interesting to me that Wasserman suspects Georgia going blue before Florida. We shall see.

Wasserman predicting NC and GA is a stretch to say the least. I travel to both of those states regularly for work and the blue cities still won’t displace the red rural areas and suburbs. Asheville was covered in red signs two weeks ago— liberal hippie Asheville!

r35 I very much appreciate your calm and measured posts on these threads

My prediction is Biden winning the Hillary states plus MI, WI, PA and AZ.

I'm skeptical on Florida, Georgia and NC. Though I would be happy to be proven wrong.

I think you see cities boarding up because it might get bad, no matter who wins. If Biden wins, deplorables are gonna lose their shit. If Trump wins or tries to steal this thing, people are going to lose their shit and they have big guns and those big trucks.

And I don't think enough has been done to let people know that we may not have an answer tomorrow. So if Trump does something stupid (which is almost a guarantee at this point), either way expect the hellmouth to open.

R330, thanks. : )

Poll Troll, predict... please.

Also, how old are you? And top, bottom or vers?

Dave Wasserman explains the map:

Here's how I roughly think about the map. If Biden wins popular vote by...

3% or less: Trump probably wins AZ/PA, wins w/ 279+ EVs

4-7%: Biden flips AZ/MI/PA/WI/#NE02 wins ~290 EVs

8-9%: adds some combo of FL/GA/NC/TX, wins 305-388 EVs

10% or more: adds IA/OH/#ME02, wins 413 EVs

The ball is in the media’s court tomorrow night. If trump decides to speak live and declare victory before any results are fully in they don’t have to show it. The world is watching.

MSNBC wouldn’t cut to it, but CBS 100% would. Shame on them.

Dump will set his trash white supremacists off and watch Americans kill one another and burn down, from his baby bunker.

In the race for the White House, Democrat Joe Biden is the favorite entering Election Day. There is still a plausible path for President Donald Trump to win an Electoral College majority — but it is narrow.

The race for Senate control is close to a coin flip. Democrats are slight favorites, but the GOP could still hold on.

In the House, Democrats have strengthened their grip as the national environment has swung toward them, and the party is likely to gain seats in the election and enter 2021 with a larger majority than in the previous Congress.

The ratings are the product of a rigorous process, analyzing election results, registration trends, the national political environment, public polling and private survey data. They also reflect conversations with dozens of campaign operatives, pollsters and other sources.

Dave Wasserman explains the map (correct link):

Here's how I roughly think about the map. If Biden wins popular vote by...

3% or less: Trump probably wins AZ/PA, wins w/ 279+ EVs

4-7%: Biden flips AZ/MI/PA/WI/#NE02, wins 290 EVs

8-9%: adds some combo of FL/GA/NC/TX/#ME02, wins 305-389 EVs

10% or more: adds IA/OH, wins 413 EVs

The fear mongering at [R300]– give a rest. You sound as unhinged as the Q Anon people.

I don't think it's fear mongering - the question was asked: why go to MI when polls indicate it's no longer viable? Given his encouragement of the MAGA-ites in TX that tried to run the Biden van off the road AND that the feds already foiled a plot by RW extremists to kidnap the governor, it does not seem at all out of character that Dump would show up on MI solely to give a shout out to all those *2nd amendment people * to take to the streets if he's cheated (because of course he can't admit he'd rightly lose). I hope I'm wrong, but I think we're all trying to anticipate what crazy thing a cornered, desperate Dump will do next.

R336 - you actually think that the networks won't broadcast Trump's premature victory speech and miss those ratings? No, all of them will and then they'll have their talking heads on to blast him. He will get LOTS of blow back from everywhere. He normally calms down when he's heavily criticized.

If Trump fights too long and hard, he will be lose whatever he has left of the Trump brand.

R336, in fairness, they have to show it. It has a profound impact on the course of events. I was a journalist. You have to show it given the nature of the nonsense.

What they also have to be able to do is immediately be able to pivot to a Biden campaign representative - planning for that scenario should be conducted, the campaign should be prepping a spokesperson and a pool feel (probably Biden himself) and then immediate bring in third party expert commentary that proves why Trump is spouting bullshit.

But Trump claiming victory cannot be ignored because it forms the basis for whatever other bullshit he tries next.

The gang at Morning Joe will be covering the election on Peacock and have already announced in advance that they will NOT be airing Trump's premature victory declaration if he makes one.

Who thinks lines will be so long and socially distanced that not all Republicans will be able to get to the polls on Tuesday?

Meaning some will be locked out because in-person voting has taken so long this year?

There's no doubt in my mind that Republican poll workers/mail persons are playing dirty tricks with mail-in ballots.

Please God let the observers of poll workers keep a sharp eye out.

As a North Carolina, I caution people to believe the polls are accurate verbatim here. Since 2010, Polls have consistently underestimated the Republican vote by 3 to 4%. North Carolina still has a lot of registered Democrats who vote Republican, and increasingly, a lot of independents who lean Republican. Hence, democrats need to be up by about 5% in Polls to win this state.

If Trump wins again, it's down to the Democrats.

I'm talking about the ones who are too lazy to show.

Why are people including Indiana as a swing state?!

It's always been a cousin-loving, hill billy red state.

R334:

1. I tend to agree with Dave Wasserman. I predict that Trump will probably win Florida but that Biden will win most of the other swing states. (Shades of 1992 when Bill Clinton lost Florida but won the Presidency without it).

2. I'm 43. I first came to DL when I was in my early 20's. I prefer being a Top. : )

I think all news networks - and I'd even include Fox in this - will ignore any histrionics out of Dump until the (almost) final results are received; since he's blurted out his intentions (as if anyone couldn't guess), they're ready for him.

R298

I would seriously love to see Trump pummeled to a pulp. Or have a major medical event. Him getting Covid was a happy moment.

President (Iowa)

Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 48%

11/1-11/2 by Public Policy Polling (B) 871 V

Woof woof! Did I do a good job?

Poll #136283 #ElectionTwitter

I am loving that Biden campaign spends their last full day in PA. That's all he needs now.

From CBS Evening News (11-1-2020):

[quote]Biden has edge in early voting but Trump could win with Election Day surge

DL's favourite pollster, Trafalgar Group, make their final " TOTALLY UNBIASED" predictions.

[quote]He can hole up in the White House all he wants, the president can be president wherever they are. Biden will just be president elsewhere while we try to figure out how to get Trump out of the White House before he stains all of the upholstery.

If their electricity, water, heat, phone, wifi and cell signal is cut, what is he gonna do? He can't even get burger deliveries.

Trump to can Dr Fauci? Seems he is itching to do just that

r357 at this point, I feel like he's just flinging his shit around and hoping something sticks

He is revving up his trash crowds against Dr. Fauci, who already has to deal with death threats towards him and his family. Trump is a scumbag! And anyone who votes for him is a scumbag, as well.

Trump doesn’t have the power to fire Fauci

Didn't Trump promise us a vaccine by the election?

I think Biden could pull off Ohio And Iowa

I feel if we had a few more weeks, Trump would do something so egregious that droves of voters wouldn't vote for him. But he's beat the clock: it's Election Eve, and the fools still support him.

I want them all to be humiliated for making him President again.

Nate Silver: Tired of people framing "Trump will declare victory prematurely" as a media story. Most likely—in part because the White House has telegraphed it so much in advance—the media will be fairly well-prepared. Instead, it's a story about Trump seeking to undermine faith in democracy.

I feel if we had a few more weeks, Trump would do something so egregious that droves of voters wouldn't vote for him.

Considering he's done just one egregious thing after another, I suspect if you are still a Dump supporter, you are ride or die at this point. I, for one, am thankful that election day is almost here and god willing, we can put this nightmare (at least somewhat) behind us

What r327 said and I include his militia, too. They'll crawl back to their Mar-a-Loco encampments, too.

Biden is going to win.

President (Wisconsin) Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 42% 10/31-11/1 by Research Co. (B-) 450 LV

President (Pennsylvania) Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 44% 10/31-11/1 by Research Co. (B-) 450 LV

President (Ohio) Biden (D) 47% Trump (R) 47% 10/31-11/1 by Research Co. (B-) 450 LV

President (Minnesota) Biden (D) 52% Trump (R) 43% 10/31-11/1 by Research Co. (B-) 450 LV

President (Michigan) Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 43% 10/31-11/1 by Research Co. (B-) 450 LV

Senate (Minnesota) Smith (D) 50% Lewis (R) 39% 10/31-11/1 by Research Co. (B-) 450 LV

Senate (Michigan) Peters (D) 52% James (R) 37% 10/31-11/1 by Research Co. (B-) 450 LV

President (National) Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 46% Jorgensen (L) 2% Hawkins (G) 1% 10/28-11/1 by IBD/TIPP (A/B) 1080 LV

president (Iowa) Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 48% 11/1-11/2 by Public Policy Polling (B) 871 V

President (National) Biden (D) 53% Trump (R) 43% 10/30-11/1 by YouGov (B) 1501 RV

NEW @IBDinvestors / TIPP (A/B) National poll October 28-Nov 1: Biden 48.8% (+3.2) Trump 45.6% Jorgensen 2.1% Hawkins 0.9% Biden 49.5%/Trump 45.4% (+4.1) MOE +/- 3.2%

Polly, the nonthreatening Canadian A.I., has updated predictions for today.

From Frederick Polls:

FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 49% NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 51%, Trump 49% PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%

That IBD/TIPP poll scares me. I'm getting flashes of Hillary leading until the last second... when she didn't. That poll is way too close for comfort. It's within the margin of error and Biden is below 50 %. Not good news. I hope it's wrong.

R370, you must be new here. There are much more scarier polls to shit your pants over.

I'm ready for Polly/Skynet to lead us! (Re: R368, 🤞)

I can't find it now to link it -- but I saw on election twitter a graph of Biden vs Trump percentages from April 2019 till now. Don't remember if it was poll average or a specific poll.

It always had Biden over Trump and mostly Biden over 50%, including now. What it showed was that the current percentage was almost exactly the starting percentage in April 2019. Meaning that COVID didn't move a needle!!! On the one hand, it's reassuring to think that Biden could win even without Trump's gross mishandling of a pandemic but on the other, it's just sad that so many Americans don't care about their health enough to see what an idiot they support.

PA is tightening, which is precisely where we especially don’t need it to tighten. It appears the fracking issue is a cause. Biden immediately needs a PA commercial saying he supports Fracking on PA.

CES likely voter estimates for 5 key swing states: FL (N=3,755): Biden 49 - Trump 47 GA (N=1,456): Biden 48 - Trump 47 NC (N=1,627): Biden 49 - Trump 45 PA (N=2,703): Biden 52 - Trump 44 TX (N=2,947): Trump 49 - Biden 47 Details and data tool:

Maricopa reporting ~64k ballot from Friday this morning. Does not include ballot processed over the weekend (exp tomorrow). As suspected party advantage is nearly even going into election day. Total Ballots: 2.4M Turnout: 57% Party Adv: +9k Dem

The day before Election Day, @FiveThirtyEight’s average of presidential polls in Texas says it's a one-point race #wowee #tx2020

Never understood how polls suddenly tighten in the end. Did people all suddenly change their minds?

[quote] Twitter names 7 outlets to call election results — all outlets that experts agree have verified, unbiased decision desks calling elections.

ABC News,

AP,

CNN,

CBS News,

Decision Desk HQ,

Fox News

NBC News — all outlets that experts agree have verified, unbiased decision desks calling elections.

Who remembers Karl Rove's meltdown on Fox when Obama won a second term?

[quote] Never understood how polls suddenly tighten in the end. Did people all suddenly change their minds?

The best explanation I've heard is that polls are an average over a period of time. So there may be a week when the economy was up or down, or there may be a week when the candidate said something insane, there may be one week with a convention or something...the closer to the election, the less those outlier weeks affect the sum total.

Polls tightening shouldn’t be frightening when 93 million Americans have already voted. It’s highly possible that Donald Trump has lost the election before the in-person voting booths even open on Tuesday morning.

I am trying hard not to be a MARY!!! and I should probably unplug for a few hours ... but I can't remember the last time I was THIS stressed out about something.

It doesn't help, by any stretch of the imagination, that I am also waiting to hear about a major promotion at work -- definitely, if it happens, the biggest advancement in my professional career. But it is by no means a sure thing. And if I DON'T get it, my job itself could be in jeopardy.

Having these two things happen in tandem is about to send me over the edge.

I don't think there will be a polling error, but here are explanations on both sides

The best explanation I've heard is that polls are an average over a period of time. So there may be a week when the economy was up or down, or there may be a week when the candidate said something insane, there may be one week with a convention or something...the closer to the election, the less those outlier weeks affect the sum total.

Thanks; I've always been puzzled by this too.

I mean my God, come on people, Trump won the last election by a cunt hair. It was a low turnout affair and he literally won by 78,000 votes between the three states I listed in the thread title. Do you seriously believe that Joe Biden is such a worse candidate than Hillary that he can’t get an extra 78,000 votes in those states? In what’s going to be an epically high turnout election? Come on, man. I don’t see why anyone rooting for the Dem side wouldn’t be confident.

R386, I also think this is a done deal. But I think what has happened over these last 4 years is that people have seen things about their, friends, families, and neighbors that have opened their eyes to things that people used to be ashamed to admit publicly and it has created a distrust that voters will do the right thing. Just my take.

Final Rasmussen poll puts Biden ahead by +4 in PA . That's 0.5% above their MOE. I am shocked.

Trump right now on the stump... "all the polls are fake polls, we are ahead in all the swing states... these fake polls are like the hoax investigations...all fake"

He will lose tomorrow and he will call the results "fake, fraud, hoax" and his core base will believe it. What happens then is unclear.

[quote]He will lose tomorrow and he will call the results "fake, fraud, hoax" and his core base will believe it. What happens then is unclear.

What happens then is Trump gets shitcanned, that's what happens then.

Good luck with the promotion, r383! Hope you get it!

R386 us way too logical! We must clutch our pearls and call for our smelling salts! We simply must!

DL's favourite Mary, James Carville make his prediction. If even he caves in, I think I am feeling a little bit more hopeful.

Former top adviser to former President Bill Clinton, James Carville, anticipates that Election Night will be a short night for everyone.

Speaking to MSNBC on Monday with former campaign manager for President Barack Obama David Plouffe, Carville said that he expects the election to be called by 10 p.m. that night.

This is obviously a standard procedure but an interesting selection of counties they chose this year!!!!

The justice department is sending staffers to 18 states tomorrow for “voting rights monitoring in jurisdictions around the country.”

THANKS, FLORIDA !

98 MILLION early VOTERS

And that's without updates from

AL AK CA CO CT DE GA HI ID IL KS KY ME MA MN MO NH NJ NY OK OR RI

.@jomalleydillon says the rejection rate for mail-in ballots has been extraordinary low: -FL: 0.3% -MI: 0.4% -WI: 0.1%

R395, Alabama doesn't have early voting, but we have set a record with absentee voting—more than 200,000 votes already cast.

[QUOTE] .@jomalleydillon says the rejection rate for mail-in ballots has been extraordinary low: -FL: 0.3% -MI: 0.4% -WI: 0.1%

I’ve been wondering when we’d hear more about this. If true that’s even more proof of a slam dunk Biden victory. Mass ballot rejections was the only thing I was sweating about.

R95 - Does anyone know how many people in total are eligible to vote this year?

Oh Holy Fuck.

I want someone to tell me that Biden's going to win like a junkie wants a vein full of heroin.

Dear Jesus.

Broward dems have reached 70% turnout

They got 74.7% in 2016 (including Election Day)

Yep r373.

The story of this election is one of stability. The polls are remarkable similar to how they were a year ago and there has been very little movement in the race.

In general, people had long picked a side in this contest.

r402

[quote]Strongly held opinions about Trump are reflected in the timeframe of voters’ decision-making. When asked when they made up their mind about which party’s presidential nominee they would support, 61 percent say when Trump was elected and 23% say during the first half of Trump’s presidency. Only 10% say a few months ago and 5% say in just the last few weeks or days. A majority of those deciding early in Trump’s presidency say they made up their mind earlier than in previous presidential elections.

New poll

R404, don’t post shit polls.

[quote] DL's favourite Mary, James Carville make his prediction.

He’s never been right about anything. He’s beyond a relic and a total joke.

Just heard a blurb on the radio that only one-in-four Ohioans has voted as of today. Is that possible? Do that many people really still go to the polling machines on Election Day?

I'm feeling more optimistic about our chances, but I still remember election day in 2016.....

What's going on with that hearing about throwing out over 100,000 drive up votes in Houston? Last I read, the reporters had been blocked from entering and been kicked off the live feed conference call so no one even knows what is being argued. I hate these motherfucking Repugs.

^^"U.S. District Judge Andrew S. Hanen, an appointee of George W. Bush, is expected to make his announcement around 2 p.m."

I thought a judgement was made

R411 the GOP will run this BS lawsuit, like all of them, as far up the court system as they need to get the result they want.

The Supreme Court of Texas (all Republican, I think) denied the petition, r411, but it's still being heard by a federal judge

Larry Sabato posted the same prediction that Wasserman did. Trump winning Florida, but losing Georgia and the other main swing states.

Texas lawsuit is rejected.

FUCK YES r415!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sanity from a Republican judge? Who would have guessed?

[QUOTE] Texas lawsuit is rejected.

Only 1,469 more to go.

Judge rules GOP lacks standing to challenge votes. GOP signals it will go to appeals court.

R419, if THIS judge said NO, I doubt the appeals court goes with that.

Ruling based on lack of standing. If the 5th circuit reverses, Hanen says he’ll OK ballots already cast via drive-thru structures but not those cast this way tomorrow.

Final Quinnipiac Poll

National: Biden +11 FL: Biden +5 Ohio: Biden +4

This attempt is so blatantly unjustifiable voter suppression no judge is going to allow it. Even for right wing judges there is a limit.

What happened in MN? Why didn’t the Dems appeal?

Tok many suits to keep track of.

The more GOP challenges/obstructs/complains/suppresses the existing voting practices, the more voters are annoyed, particularly independents. Keep them doing it, it only helps Biden to convince the very few undecideds and reluctant Republicans.

Fox News on my TV all day and Biden ads are literally NON STOP all day. Not a single Trump ad. I am amazed.

Reuters: U.S. JUDGE REJECTS REPUBLICAN ACTIVIST BID TO TOSS 127,000 BALLOTS FROM DRIVE-THROUGH VOTING IN LARGEST TEXAS COUNTY

I am calling Florida for Biden - unless they manage to cheat it which we may or may not know. But I think Biden is going to get Florida. His varying leads have been consistent enough that I think he can pull off anything from a squeaker to a 3-4% win.

I think Biden's going to get everywhere he leading, expectedly or unexpectedly... giving him Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, Penn, Mich, Wisc, Az. I don't think Texas or Iowa are beyond possible but I don't lump them in because the odds seem so long.

I think it's a Biden 'landslide' on states carried, if not necessarily on popular vote. I think it will put the GOP leadership in a really weird position where they have to decide whether to back Trump the defeated and possibly come out the wrong side of that or cut Trump lose and lick their wounds.

I don't feel confident, just certain, if that makes any sense.

Love the new Eminem vote ad for Biden

If we're just weighting based on coolness, Biden's endorsements from Jay-Z, Snoop Dogg, and Eminem are so much greater than the rappers in the Trump corner.

You know what? I'm betting on a polling error.

In favor of Trump.

With the turnout the way it is and the remarkably low ballot rejection rates, I think that pollsters overcorrected for 2016 and we're about to see a blowout.

Maybe I should put this in the predictions thread. Biden 400+ EVs!

Even though I just won’t even dare to dream it, I would love to get one of the red states like TX or GA. Because that would just be the loudest fuck you to him.

These angry Deplorable white men are out here leaving deer heads on lawns with Biden-Harris signs. And the mainstream media keeps harping about the poor “hidden Trump voter”? Try the silent Biden voter who has to worry about this kind of fucking harassment and vandalism at the mere prospect that they don’t support Orange Julius. The polls are definitely undercounting Biden votes if anything.

Texans, please win this one for Ann.

For Ann and Molly!

I’m in TX and I voted Blue via mail-in ballot. I was hopeful TX might, at the very least, flip the Senate, but I dunno...

Kerry Washington here in Michigan today on behalf of Biden and Harris campaign. Harris is back in Michigan tomorrow I believe

R433 yeah look in my little world and probably where most of us live if you’re silent then you’re voting for Trump full stop. And that’s certainly true for public figures who are silent as well.

But in these swing states, and some very deplorable counties, it’s just the opposite. I’d be scared shitless what those rednecks would unleash on me.

Okay bitches. I'm starting to feel optimistic.

Kaitalan Collins or however the fuck you spell it, from CNN: Early voting in Arizona just surpassed its entire vote count from 2016. Now the fourth state to do so this election.

That's not about Trump.

It is about Trump in a sense: removing him from office.

You should feel optimistic r439.

There are no guarantees in life, but Biden is in a great position and it takes the polls being even more wrong than they were in 2016 for Trump to win.

So all the latest polls show increased momentum for Biden in IA, GA, FL, NC and TX.

This is positive sign in PA

Do you think the GOP are pissed that Kanye didn’t pan out and make more noise about running in those states where he got on the ballot. They put in about $5 million and really got nothing for collecting all those signatures they scrambled to collect

I am excited that no one will give a fuck about the blonde hitler mouth piece spewing her garbage on tv starting tomorrow

I’m in Michigan and I’m trying to feel optimistic.

Black seniors in Georgia have, to date, voted at 124% of their rate in 2016.

Damn CNN is getting livid “in AMERICA, we wait until the votes are counted.” Jake, Gloria et al are really going to blow their top tomorrow.

It’s go time, America.

Apparently 92% of all registered voters in Falls Church city in VA have already voted early. Amazing!

BREAKING: Federal judge in Texas rules against GOP, the 127,000 ballots in Houston will be counted.

Biden's lead won't hold...

What kind of crock of shit did you post, r453? Take off your tin foil hat.

R426, or any other Fox News watcher, any feeling of how Fox News is characterizing the upcoming election? Their comments about the likelihood of Biden winning, or about any of these voting lawsuits?

Rather than a "shy Trump voter" the turnout suggests a wave of Biden voters. Massive jumps in turnout in sunbelt states: new voters. These new voters are more likely to be non-white (lean Democratic) under 40 (lean Democratic) whites with a college degree (trending Democratic)

Quality pollsters learned from 2016 by weighting their sample by education. The polls in 2018 after this adjustment were better than in 2016. The sunbelt polls were quite good, the Midwest polls still underestimated Republicans by around 3% Biden's lead in MI, WI are > than 3%

Biden got a tiny further boost this morning (from 89% to 90%*) from this plus some decent polling for him. But now there are no longer any further gains to be had for Biden from the mere passage of time.

* Yes, just over the "clearly favored" line in our verbiage

r18...Educated white women...not white trailer trash hos.....

Sorry R454 But the DL is into poll worship more than in 2016.

Many repubs & right leaning indies won't answer the polls truthfully (a.k.a. "lamestream media") & dems are over represented in them.

BREAKING: Federal judge in Texas rules against GOP, the 127,000 ballots in Houston will be counted.

Wow, you know they are desperately grasping when one of their pocket judges actually has the nerve to rule against them.

Why did they answer the pollsters truthfully in 2016 and 2018, R460?

Great ad r450. Seeing the other D candidates out there supporting Biden/Harris is like a reunion. The primaries were about 100 years ago, weren't they?

R462 I was only referring to the 2106 presidential election.

Hillary was the fav of all of the polls.

^ 2016 election (2106 LOL).

[QUOTE] Hillary was the fav of all of the polls.

Hillary was not the fav of all the polls. Forecasters just chose to ignore her weak numbers, and they ran out of time to see how much further down she’d slide before Election Day. But the actual polling numbers did tighten considerably in the final weeks. And her numbers were never that great in the first place—she was mired in the mid to upper 40’s. So why were these shy Trump supporters more willing to give pollsters their honest take in 2016 but not now? Also, why wouldn’t they just claim to be undecided?

Biden was very wise to campaign in the Democratic base of Rust Belt states to the end, unlike Hillary in 2016.

It really is a great Joe Biden ad, R463!

[quote]If the 5th circuit reverses, Hanen says he’ll OK ballots already cast via drive-thru structures but not those cast this way tomorrow.

This 'reverse every other day' shit should be illegal. All lawsuits about the ways to vote must settle before voting starts.

It's ridiculous for the umpires to change the rules mid-game. Doesn't happen in sports, shouldn't happen in elections either.

The clowns at @TrumpWarRoom are spending their final days before the election attacking Lady Gaga.

From start to finish, I’ve never seen a worse, more off-message, easily distracted, and self-owning political operation in my life.

Are you ex-Republican digital strategist/current Lincoln Project staffer Conor Rogers, R470?

Gurl r471 #ww

Harry Enten on Florida:

(Biden has a larger lead in FL than Clinton did... and she only lost by 1.2 points.)

[quote]Do you think the GOP are pissed that Kanye didn’t pan out and make more noise about running in those states where he got on the ballot. They put in about $5 million and really got nothing for collecting all those signatures they scrambled to collect

What morons they are. They have no more sense of their own ludicrousness than the village idiot stumbling around in manure.

[quote] All lawsuits about the ways to vote must settle before voting starts. It's ridiculous for the umpires to change the rules mid-game.

It is probably long past time for a uniform set of rules that should be applied evenly throughout the country, so we have some degree of consistency. The elections need to be run by the states, but this patchwork approach to the rules is outdated, inefficient, and promotes voter suppression. The House already passed voting reform last year, but it’s been sitting on Mitch’s desk ever since.

It’s gonna take awhile to get all our votes counted. I’m willing to wait..

R474 (and others who've made observations about the Trump campaign) I think their strategy sorts in 3 categories.

1. Greatest Hits. Hence the "lock her up" and "outsider grievance numbers with the orange parasol".... He tried to do what was so popular in the pilot for the show in 2016.

2. Suppress the vote. Challenge legitimacy of the election. Set up the lawsuits to come.

3. Understand that letting "Trump be Trump" is inevitable, so throw shit against the wall, changing every news cycle. It's this last category where the poverty of the thinking 's been most apparent.

What is genius Robbie mook doing tonight?

National GE: Biden 51% (+7) Trump 44%

RMG Research/@ScottWRasmussen 10/29-31

Total Early Votes: 99,657,079 • In-Person Votes: 35,720,830 • Mail Ballots Returned: 63,936,249 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 28,212,749

Trolls awake already, eh?

ONE. HUNDRED. MILLION. HAVE. VOTED

The California update was sent an hour ago, bringing the nationwide total to 100,573,905.

Early vote totals are great but don’t let this take the pressure off of voting day. I’m hoping for a massive wipeout of Republicans.

It is Likely that 2/3 of all 2020 voters voted early

134mil voted in 2016. Will more than 34mil vote on Election Day?

[quote]the village idiot stumbling around in manure

I DO NO STUMBLE!

Over 150 million likely

Could even exceed 160 million voters

Here's the thing - given the fact that every other group has surpassed 2016 turnout, 471,747 more white non-college voters would have to vote in Texas tomorrow just for that group to match their 2016 electorate share... if literally no one but white non-college voters turned out.

Dave Wasserman:

It's election eve, and Texas and Georgia are legit toss ups.

The early voting numbers coming out of Texas are astounding honestly. I lived in Texas for 6 years and never thought I could imagine a day when Texas could even be considered "up for grabs" or a toss up R490. Thank you for your post. Right now, I just want Biden/Harris to get through the finish line ahead of the trash that has been inhabiting the WH for 4 years, but the thought of TEXAS turning blue honestly seems surreal. It's going to be a nail-biting night/week. Fingers crossed!!!

If Texas goes Blue, or Georgia, it will give so much hope to those of us that live in red states! GOALS!

ROOTING FOR YOU, LONE STAR at R491!

Not sure where Wasserman is getting his Texas numbers.

Dems only hit 88% of their 2016 turnout, Rethugs hit 108% of their 2016 turnout from early vote so far.

Early-voting Texas is 107% of the entire 2016 turnout. It’s possible there may not even be an election day surge there, and Reps are up by 1,625,632 votes (approx from the percentage). Independents make up about a million votes but even if they go all in Dem, that’s still half a million banked for Rethugs.

R493, yes, odds are that Trump will probably still win Texas by something like 3 points, but the Dems are giving the GOP a closer fight than they expected.

Wasserman has Texas staying red in his map and has Georgia going blue instead.

[quote]Dems only hit 88% of their 2016 turnout, Rethugs hit 108% of their 2016 turnout from early vote so far.

This is for Texas?

Yes r495

R494, could you cite the source for this breakdown? No official party affiliation information is available for TX. All we have is guesses. So you better provide some evidence.

Disbelieve Trump's support at your own peril.

I see the trolls are up early.

NBC News and TargetSmart r497

R500, again post your source, Masha.

r501 I think that is PollTroll -- not an actual DL troll, but a longtime, beloved poster

The thread is at 500 Xi, making it almost impossible to post. But you can copy paste yourself or head over to Daily Kos where they were discussing it the other day. PollTroll didn’t dispute it either.

www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results

Im not PollTroll r502 though I appreciate his work. PT usually signs his posts.

Thanks r504.

Apropos of nothing: is anyone else finding DL MUCH slower today than yesterday? And it's still early ...

Just performed GLORY with my brother @JohnLegend at the Final @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris Rally on Election Eve in Philadelphia. Vote tomorrow. Let’s make history.

Nice that Trump had Lil Pimp with him at his rally in Michigan. I am sure all the racist Michigan militants appreciated that

I don’t believe those Texas numbers. We’ve had unprecedented turnout. That turnout was fueled by those opposed to the current thing in the WH. Beto fueled turnout. That wasn’t for republicans. Wasserman understandably wants to play Texas safe though polls have it tied. Vote.

There was a story in the NYT about polling centers in TX being open overnight & people who worked the night shift, had multiple jobs, etc. showing up; it kind of brought tears to my eyes because for as much as people are (often rightly) criticized for not voting, it shows the lengths people will go to to vote when the actually have the chance.

Harris County closed all drive through voting locations and people can no longer vote this way because County Clerk no longer feel these votes are going to be safe after the GOP lawsuit. I wonder if GOP going to complain about that now as this more likely to disenfranchise GOP voters.

Just cast my in person ballot for Mighty Joe Biden! What a fucking relief. It’s been quite a journey. It’s like a weight off my shoulders.

I live in Pennsylvania and no matter what happens, I will be so relieved not to have to see any more political ads!

Statewide Democratic turnout in Florida is 66.7% so far! 👀

Overall, Cleveland turnout was 56% in 2016, 58% in 2012. Right now it's at 36%.

If you read into the voting numbers this early you’re in for an excruciatingly long day. It’s 9am. Relax. Check back at 5pm. And even then don’t read too much into it.

I still don’t trust the GOP. My hunch is that they’ve been cooking something up behind the scenes to invalidate millions of votes. They could have waited until the lame duck to confirm Barrett. They didn’t. I won’t be relaxed until Biden has his hand on the Bible on January 20th.

Is this the **official** Election Day thread? Or is there another I'm not seeing?

Voted this morning. No line at 7:30 am but heard there was a line when they first opened.

Who knows r518?

But you might try this:

Thanks r520

De nada r521.

Ditto, R520. This thread is getting sticky even though it hasn't maxed out yet.

R512 and R519, out of curiosity, why did you wait until today to vote? Genuinely just asking.

There wasn't early voting in CT, R524. Except for Covid-19 I didn't meet the reasons for requesting an absentee ballot. I get tested for Covid antibodies monthly because I donate platelets and plasma. Also, didn't want the ballot to get "lost" in the mail.

~R524

Sorry, should have signed that ~R519.

Well it looks like this thread isn’t done yet afterall!

Of course not r527. CNN just reporting: Biden up in WI by 10k votes, more to come....it's almost over. Bit by bit is how you do it.

Yeah well I briefly fell into the fantasy of thinking a blue wave might render these states moot.

Hey guys. We’re back!!

Here's how Trump can still win:

Fingers crossed that Pennsylvania is the state that puts Joe over 270.

Rick Santorum defending armed protestors.

"They have a right to protect themselves."

Wait so the fucker wants to scream voter interference... the same fucker that said, "Russher if youre listening???"

JOE BIDEN WINS PENNSYLVANIA.

WHAT HAPPENED, BUCKSEGHENEY YARD SIGNS?

What happened to all those "CEOS of major corporations to cashiers at the gas stations" who told you Trump was a done deal?

Derp Fuhrer said "It is impossible for them to catch us" in PA; GA.

Biden just flipped both, bitch!

What happened?

Bring it home, Joe!

Aw, how cute that you moved over here when the YSTs handed you your ass on the other thread...

Bwahahahahahw

***

Emerson came out with a Pennsylvania poll this evening showing Biden + 5 (MOE 3.7). Last Emerson poll from early August had Biden +9. The change from the last Emerson poll is Biden -2/Trump +2.

This combined with the internal CNBC poll is probably closer to the mark than Monmouth. I think Biden will take the state, but the margin is going to be slim. Certainly not 10, 11 and 12.

The big difference between these the Emerson, CNBC and Monmouth is that Monmouth makes use of more live calling.

—Anonymous

reply 386

Andrea Mitchell says NBC News will call the PA race when Biden leads by at least 35,000 votes.

But Hair Furor's delusional claim that "It is impossible for them to catch us" in specifically Georgia and Pennyslvania is proven HILARIOUSLY FALSE AGAIN. TRUMP'S BEEN CAUGHT.

This is what you get for counting your chickens before they hatched with no credible pollsters on your side and a nation that hates you with a wake of disasters at your feet. These are the words Derp Fuhrer has to eat now.

It sucks to be a shit-peddling psychopath!

Boris is on a desperate bumping tear to erase the bad news about his Trumplethinskin losing Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Just looking back, I'm not sure where some of these pollsters go from here. Quinnapiac and Monmouth were monumentally wrong in all the key states. Quinnapiac having Florida up 14 and Pennsylvania up 13 (Monmouth, CNN and a few others weren't as extreme but were just as bad) a month before the election should have been a giant warning sign that the polling was way off everywhere.

C.H.E.A.T.I.N.G

The Russians flooded same day voting with Repug votes. They just couldn't overcome the sheer volume of Democratic mail-ins. Just watch as the analysis is done and it is shown that the mail-in votes followed the polling but the in-person machine voting on election day did not by an extraordinary amount. Just fucking watch.

Yes, r542.

Trafalgar and Rasmussen are laughing stocks that will only be seen and Republican pornography going forward.

There is a market for Fake News and Republican pornography, but they cannot win re-elections.

The massive amount of fraud caught on camera in so many places will come out in the courts. Democrats got their their asses handed to them all night across the board as did creepy Joe. "Suddenly" as everyone slept, huge ballot dumps, 100% for Biden came in. None for Trump, or third party candidates. That is a statistical impossibility. Whistle-blowers are already coming forward. They're honestly trying to say sleepy Joe, who had not even a tenth of Obamas level of voter enthusiasm, beat out Obamas 2008 numbers? While losing a good margin of the minority vote? C'mon man!

You’re adorable, R545.

R545 ahahahaha. Love from Russia?

I think we are going to see major fraud. All the vote counters in PA are POC women. Trump ballots dumped in the trash. It would have been declared by now unless Trump has something up his sleeve. The whole AZ situation feels off.

The polls were wrong all over the place, but not consistently. It looks like they're going to pretty much nail Georgia and Arizona, but Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were significantly worse.

If you ignore the polling margins, it looks like Joe Biden will win the amount of electoral votes within a reasonable range of what 538 predicted - 306.

I have to wonder, is this just a Trump thing? The polls were not as bad in 2008 and 2012.

This thread is being corrupted by trolls.

R549, it's a cheating thing. The Russians hacked the votes both times. I really want to see how much difference there is between the mail-in votes and the in-person votes when it comes to matching the polling. I hope someone does that analysis. If it shows mail-in votes matching polling and in-person being insanely off, that would be proof of hacking votes.

I really think they just switched a percentage of in-person Democratic votes to Repug votes, just like happened when people literally had their vote switch in front of their eyes in Texas in the Beto/Cruz race.

So many idiot trolls in this thread. Dump is the kind of person who engenders tremendous emotion. Why are you people having trouble believing more people hate him than love him? I think if we had an Obama type person running—someone with charisma—Dump would have lost easily. Also, he disclosed his strategy way before the election, he told his people to vote on Election Day. The masses who hate him didn’t vote Election Day—they voted by mail. Those were massively Democratic.

R545, and his ilk, are taking their cues from Dump. Sore losers!!

Are you familiar with this, R549?

Maybe COVID-19 inadvertently saved American democracy? Not as many people would have voted by mail if it hadn't been for the pandemic. And as said above, you can't hack paper ballots.

IT COMFORTS ME A LITTLE TO THINK THIS IS THE REVENGE ON ALL THOSE WITH THE VIRUS WHO HAVE PASSED AWAY OR GOT VERY SICK!... THIS IS THEIR REVENGE ON THAT "THING" AND THAT IS WHAT HE IS A THING CALLED TRUMP..

[quote]The courts will decide

Far more likely that the courts will decline to become involved.

Mission accomplished.