Mighty Joe Biden Continues to Lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin

Y’know, I thought this race would’ve been more exciting. Go, Joe.

Don’t get too smug. The Russians haven’t weighed in yet

I think Joe can get Arizona as well.

Repeat after me.

LANDSLIDE

Arizona would be wonderful, R5. Might help offset trouble elsewhere.

New poll: Joe Biden up 6 in Wisconsin.

Lets not get overly excited since anything can happen between now and election day. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Why shouldn’t we be excited, R9? After four years of depression and misery, we’re finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel and we can’t be happy about it?

I'm hoping for Texas, Florida and Georgia too!

I'm talking about the polls R10. All the polls had Hillary winning and look what happened. I don't want anyone to become complacent. We need to vote as if Joe is trailing Trump so we get everyone out there voting.

He's leading in Texas now!!!

-- Beto

[quote] He's leading in Texas now!!!

They’ve been flip-flopping in TX for a while now, though recent polls have given Trump the edge. It’s nice to see another one with a Biden lead, however small.

Beto did a great job in Texas, he came close and he made a big dent. And I say this as somebody who wasn't that much into Beto, because he was a bit of a BernBro, he voted against Nancy Pelosi and the video he used to announce his candidacy was extremely cringey.

I hope he campaigns his ass off for Joe in Texas!

New Rasmussen poll actually has Joe’s Wisconsin lead GROWING to 8 points. Let’s hope it’s the beginning of a trend.

R15 Beto is mobilizing his grassroots TX army to register as many new voters as possible and get out the vote. Donate here:

[quote] we’re finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel and we can’t be happy about it?

Why not? Just go for it. You were certainly happy each of the other lights at the end of the tunnel these last four years. Why omit this one.

Up by 9 in new PA poll.

[quote] After four years of depression and misery, we’re finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel and we can’t be happy about it?

If Biden wins, we can all be cautiously optimistic that the paid trolls with their quotas for starting several dozen new Trump threads on DL every day will have to take a break. Truly light at the end of the tunnel.

Biden will win 100% of the popular vote and all of the electoral votes. Keep saying this.

Good News. Now, work on Florida. Trump is flooding the airwaves there, all over Latin media, and going door to door.

R19, as a pennsylvanian I'm scared until he wins, super scared

The only thing mighty about Joe is his dementia.

R24 is FF

R22 The Latin vote REALLY concerns me. My favorite election forecaster Rachel Bitecofer is raising the alarm that Trump's growing support in this demographic. This could tip the scales in his favor in places like Florida.

That said, people need to stop treating Latinos like a monolith. You'd think they'd be more empathetic to the plight of immigrants, but a lot of them turn their nose up at the undocumented once they get their papers. And that goes double for Puerto Ricans who are already American citizens, and Cubans who've been able to gain permanent residence. Out west, there are Hispano-Americans who absolutely disdain people who cross the border (a lot of them happen to work for ICE and Border Patrol for Christ's sake...).

And since Latinos tend to be more religious, abortion is a bigger issue for them than immigration. If they're Evangelical, of course that's all they care about.

I say all this as a Puerto Rican. Growing up, I'd hear my family complain about all the "illegals" who freeload off of welfare... I'm estranged from a lot of these relatives (for obvious reasons), but I heard they've been doubling down on their Goya products since that whole fiasco. My only cold comfort is that they don't vote, but if they did, they'd definitely lean more towards Trump.

Florida Latinos are different than NY Latinos, CA Latinos, AZ Latinos. Biden is correct: Latinos are a very Diverse group. Trump is focused on attracting Florida Cubans with specific messaging and events. He is flooding Latin media in Florida and going door to door. He is likewise going for Florida Venezuelans and Puerto Ricans. Very focused

Florida is too hopeful for our Biden.

The temptation to go low and to vote for lies and hate appeals to more than white racists.

Most Florida Latinos identify as white

[quote] The Latin vote REALLY concerns me.

President Donald Trump’s campaign and Republicans are making inroads in Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous, forcing the Biden campaign to scramble in response to the threat to the wellspring of Democratic votes.

A new poll of local voters found that Biden is underperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margins over Trump in the county, where Democrats needed to run up the score to offset losses elsewhere.

Miami state Sen. Annette Taddeo, a Democrat, said the raft of polling and the late-breaking response to Trump’s threat in Florida has the party taking the matter seriously after months of discarding warnings.

“Some of us have been warning about this, but it was kill the messenger: ‘You just bitch about everything.’ And now they're like ‘Ahhhhh! What do we do?’” she said.

Trump’s traction with Cuban American voters, who tend to vote Republican, is driving his gains in Miami-Dade. After drifting toward the Democratic side during President Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 bids, many have returned to the GOP fold amid Trump’s crackdown on Cuba and his constant outreach. In Miami-Dade, about 72 percent of the registered Republicans are Hispanic, mostly Cuban-American.

“Throughout the 2016 election and during his time in office, President Trump has developed a personal connection with the Cuban community in Florida and he would never allow that to be ceded unilaterally to anyone,” Wiles said.

If there’s one person whom Republicans and Democrats credit with helping Trump among Miami-Dade Hispanic voters — specifically Cuban-Americans — it’s Alexander Otaola, who emigrated to Miami in 2003 and launched a popular Spanish-language YouTube show that morphed from covering culture and music into politics. Along the way, Otaola went from an Obama voter to an evangelist for Trump.

Otaola told POLITICO that Trump is proving relatively popular with Latinos in the county because he is “synonymous with prosperity and success. We are tired of politicians who say the right thing and do the wrong thing. And we have changed to whoever speaks the wrong thing; but does the right thing.”

n a poll of likely Miami-Dade voters by Bendixen & Amandi International released Tuesday for The Miami Herald, Biden led Trump by 17 points, a margin that gives Democrats shivers in a county that Clinton carried by nearly 30 points. Pollster Fernand Amandi found that Trump was winning Cuban-American voters 68-30 percent, while Biden was carrying what are called non-Cuban Hispanics 58-32 percent.

“There’s no path to victory for Trump in Miami-Dade, but there’s a path to manage Miami-Dade margins, which could allow Trump to carry Florida by minimizing his losses here,”.

Florida isn't a priority. It would be a nice get but i doubt its happening. Biden should focus on more certain places such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Minnesota and possibly Ohio (though not required). He wins all these as it looks he should be able to and he doesn't need Florida.

Also, while Latinos is definitely a concern, it's not the most active voting block. Just like youth, they don't alway show up. Biden performs better than Clinton with the voters that matter ( old, white educated, women of all colors, and suburbs).

R20 Preach. I have been here since 2006 and I can safely say this site has gone downhill. Datalounge is nothing more than Trump 24/7. I'm so sick of it. I come to DL for gossip. I hate Trump. The less I read about him the better.

[quote]The Latin vote REALLY concerns me.

Strange things happening in Florida.

[quote] Otaola told POLITICO that Trump is proving relatively popular with Latinos in the county because he is “synonymous with prosperity and success. We are tired of politicians who say the right thing and do the wrong thing. And we have changed to whoever speaks the wrong thing; but does the right thing.”

Disgusting.

If you remove the Latin vote, the whole Southwest becomes red. Biden is not in any danger of losing Latino voters. He is gaining Arizona because of them.

WRONG, OP.

Biden will also need either FLORIDA or OHIO.

Fortunately for you and the world, Biden is ahead in BOTH states again.

As a matter of fact, OP, Trump's convention bounce has evaporated in all swing states — even Florida, where Biden is ahead again.

R37, not really.

Oh, Arizona's a done deal for the Democrats, hunties.

If you told me just four years ago that McCain country and Deplorable ground zero Arizone would become a Blue State with 2 DEMOCRATIC SENATORS and a DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, I would have had you committed.

Maybe Shitler should trash John McCain and Jeff Flake some more!

I was about to post almost the same map. Even if Trump somehow wins MN he'd still need MI or PA.

Buy something. Show your support.

[quote]as a Pennsylvanian I'm scared until he wins, super scared

Come my child, I'll hold and comfort you.

I have to admit, I don't understand PA. I thought it was like the other Northeast states and then 2016 happened. Has there been some kind of demographic shift there or something?

The Florida Latino deficit is down to three things: 1) Cubans won't forgive Biden for Obama normalizing relations with Havana, and 2) Cubans and Venezuelan fascists who were exiled from their country prefer a fascist vs false claims of "SOCIALISMO", 3) Florida Latinos (more than in CA or TX) tend to see a zero-sum political game between AA and their interests and Biden-Harris's strength with Black voters is a slight liability.

Biden needs to bombard Orlando (PR) and Homestead/Okechobee (Mexican and Central American) with the paper towel video and the concentration camps for kids.

There was no "law and order" bounce, either.

So Boris can quit cranking his penis already.

R44 Western PA is essentially Appalachia. Trumptard Central. 🤮

Will the troll who warns us against optimism in EVERY ELECTION THREAD just shut the fuck up already?

You're preaching to the converted. There's nobody who comes into these political threads that isn't going to vote or do as much as they can to help turnout.

Quit pissing on the parade — Trump is over by any legitimate means. Shenanigans are all he's got now.

Or r12 could be just another Boris trying to demoralize Democrats, as usual.

If Texas votes for Biden, it will be a beautiful statement about the integrity of America.

These recent polls have affected the 538 prediction as well, which now gives Biden a 74% chance of winning, Trump 25%, and a tie 1%.

Do you see how r18 is just another Boris trying to rain on America's parade?

WHAT ABOUT 2018 AND NEARLY EVERY ELECTION SINCE, BORIS? Why did Trump's party and endorsements lose?

Are you ever going to stop pretending America's rejection of Trumpism isn't real?

When Trump is locked up?

After Trump is dead?

I find it suspicious that Republicans aren't the least bit worried. Their faces are suppressing a smirk, the cat who ate the canary. No one is putting forth a yuge effort- with all that money raised- to flood the country with pro-Trump propaganda. They're just manipulating the polls to look like Trump is juuust under Biden everywhere, to explain how he roars to victory on Election Day.

The machines are hacked and ready to go. If more people vote by mail they'll just have to tweak them for more Trump votes.

I remember clearly the lovely party I gave on Election Day 4 years ago to usher in President Clinton.

I don't think Trump has a path to victory without Pennsylvania. Even if Trump were to carry Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Minnesota, Texas, and North Carolina, he can't get over 270 without PA.

Just remember. The Trump campaign and the RNC are pouring money into these states. And the ad I saw on TV the other night made me real angry. It was a retired Black cop whose daughter was shot by a gang wanting revenge. Then he did a number on Biden with the whole "defund the police." The theme of the ad is that Biden is "too weak." And those are the words it ended with. I'm 100000% for Joe, OK? But we need to counter these ads. We need to get our own shit up there and we need to donate $$$$ because I don't believe for a minute Trump is out of $$$$. I believe his own people are robbing him blind including his kids, but I think between the Kochs and the Russians he has money. So do the Senate races. We can't afford to let up. Keep fighting.

Fuck off R49. If you are demoralized you have no one to blame but yourself.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and making comments here R48. 2016 is a great example of people being so optimistic that Clinton was going to win and look what happened. So no I am not going to take these polls seriously and I will continue to remind people not be too overly optimistic.

Boris's sour grapes are really starting to show @ r21.

Whatever happened to losing with dignity? Cunt.

Boris also wants us to lose complete faith in the polls, which were ACCURATE in 2016 if you read the fine print.

The polls before HIllary's loss showed that she was within the margin of error in enough swing states to lose.

And they were correct.

But today, and for the last 2 years, the polls have given Biden a victory over Trump in the electoral college ABOVE the margins of error almost all of the time.

Biden has landslide numbers, Hillary didn't.

Biden is not Hillary.

Texas, the Deplorable Ground Zero and source of the Republicans' biggest electoral portion, has been trending Biden for 2 years!!!

BEFORE the pandemic!

That means Benedict Donald is in deep shit and the Senate's going to Democrats.

CNN's Jeremy Diamond:

Amid a news deluge, Trump campaign announces (buries) its August fundraising numbers: Trump campaign pulled in $210 million, meaning they got outraised by Biden by $154 million last month.

I think they key is, and always will be, the 18-22 year olds. They're majority blue, but they don't turn out. Add the fact that most music festivals and events where "Rock The Vote" type initiatives succeeded in registering are not happening this year. We have to tell every young person we meet to vote. Telling them "Our democracy is at stake" doesn't move the needle either. This is the school shooting generation. We need to focus on actual gun control. We also need to focus on healthcare. These are the things that I think will sway young voters.

[QUOTE] Just remember. The Trump campaign and the RNC are pouring money into these states. And the ad I saw on TV the other night made me real angry. It was a retired Black cop whose daughter was shot by a gang wanting revenge. Then he did a number on Biden with the whole "defund the police." The theme of the ad is that Biden is "too weak."

I’m in a swing state and I can’t remember the last time I saw a Trump ad. They must be mostly on Fox News (which I avoid like the plague).

I keep seeing Trump ads on YouTube!

Only up 4 in Wisconsin in this new poll from Marquette.

NEW @RedfieldWilton Poll (LV, 8/30-9/4):

#AZsen: Kelly (D) 53% (+15) McSally (R-inc) 38% . #MIsen: Peters (D-inc) 50% (+12) James (R) 38% . #NCsen: Cunningham (D) 47% (+10) Tillis (R-inc) 37% . #NCgov: Cooper (D-inc) 54% (+19) Forest (R) 35%

I’ve posted this before, but I know exactly what happened in PA. There were torrential rain storms in the Philadelphia area on Election Day, coupled with temperatures in the 40s.

Is Bloomberg still chipping in for Joe?

When has he ever chipped in for Joe, R69? He’s been MIA the whole time.

Billionaire and former presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg is plotting a massive spending blitz to back Joe Biden’s quest for the White House.

"Then he did a number on Biden with the whole "defund the police." The theme of the ad is that Biden is "too weak."

So the Russiapublicans were behind he whole riots/Antifa thing in the "Democrat Mayor cities" after all. Fomenting chaos via the internet: organize a peaceful protest, then introduce operatives to loot and burn. I figured as much.

The election is in God’s hands. We’ll have to wait to see what happens.

[quote] The election is in God’s hands. We’ll have to wait to see what happens.

God and Yogi Berra

Yes R72, that's exactly what happens!

GOP/Russia is exploiting existing conflicts for their own benefit. I'm going even as far as Russia deliberately causing the massive refugee storm from the Syrian Civil War towards Europe to foster right wing unrest.

They were behind the Catalan Secession movement, a conflict that has been existing for centuries. But what happened in the last year was pushed by Russia's operatives.

It's not like the US doesn't do the same in other countries, remember the CIA coup in Iran that kept the Shah in power until Khomeini.

The difference between the US and Russia or China is that the US, esp under democratic presidents, promotes democracy and peace in other countries. Or at least tries to minimize an existing conflict. Russia and China never do. A lot of the problems in the middle East stem from Iran being the military and economical ally of Russia.

So could we actually be looking at a 2021-22 without DJT and the Kardashians? What's this strange, unfamiliar feeling in my nethers, ma?

#New Michigan @Rasmussen_Poll:

Biden 51% (+8) Trump 43%

[QUOTE] President Trump’s weekslong barrage against Joseph R. Biden Jr. has failed to erase the Democrat’s lead across a set of key swing states, including the crucial battleground of Wisconsin, where Mr. Trump’s law-and-order message has rallied support on the right but has not swayed the majority of voters who dislike him, according to a poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.

[QUOTE]Mr. Biden, the former vice president, leads Mr. Trump by five percentage points in Wisconsin and by a wider, nine-point margin in neighboring Minnesota, a Democratic-leaning state that Mr. Trump has been seeking to flip with his vehement denunciations of rioting and crime.

[QUOTE]The president has improved his political standing in Wisconsin in particular with an insistent appeal to Republican-leaning white voters alarmed by local unrest. But in both Midwestern states, along with the less-populous battlegrounds of Nevada and New Hampshire, Mr. Trump has not managed to overcome his fundamental political vulnerabilities — above all, his deep unpopularity with women and the widespread view among voters that he has mismanaged the coronavirus pandemic.

Bloomberg donating $100 million to the Biden campaign in Florida to free up campaign funds to shore up the Democratic effort in other states, particularly Pennsylvania.

Yeah well Bloomberg is no stranger to talking a good game and not following through, so the Dems better not go pulling resources from Florida just yet.

NEW Wisconsin poll:

Biden 50%

Trump 43%

margin of error 3.5%

Does anyone know what Erik Prince is up to? Because the threats of violence coming from the Trump people are getting pretty open. I'm talking about guys like Roger Stone or Caputo. Caputo is urging Trump supporters to "buy enough ammo now because there won't be enough on inauguration day when Trump refuses to leave and calls for armed resistance! Now, IMO that's a lot of bullsh!t because we'll know his plan before that. I guess they want to stoke the drama with a visual picture of him. But this is getting disgusting. The cops and the military are not to be trusted. I think they're as divided as the rest of the country.

I don't have any faith in the polls so I just ignore them. I'm quietly hopeful and slightly confident but it all depends on everyone getting out and voting.

I can't how how it could be possible to live with another 4 years of Trump.

What does PollTroll say? I want his interpretation.

[QUOTE] Because the threats of violence coming from the Trump people are getting pretty open. I'm talking about guys like Roger Stone or Caputo. Caputo is urging Trump supporters to "buy enough ammo now because there won't be enough on inauguration day when Trump refuses to leave and calls for armed resistance!

R82 the talk of violence among Trump supporters is simply a reflection of the divisive tone coming from the candidate they support, who traffics in angry rhetoric and never denounces anything from his side. Trump believes that this kind of talk and atmosphere is good for him, so many of his supporters are following his lead and spouting this nonsense without fear of rebuke from the candidate. If the Republican candidate was a more sensible fellow like John McCain then these rightwingers would keep their thoughts to themselves for fear that he’d denounce them, but since they know that won’t happen with Trump they feel free to let their freak flag fly.

Jeff Greenfield suggests taking the average between the top two conflicting polls to arrive at the correct number. So 8 up in one poll and 6 up in another =7.

Loser trash threaten people with violence. It makes sense that it would be Dump's go-to and he would encourage his followers in that regard. They are the refuse of society and belong on the very fringes.

Polls are tightening very fast which is always worrying but still Biden is performing consistently better than Hillary did throughout the entire race. Also, unlike 2016, there are significantly less undecideds left. Most voters already made up their mind it appears and early voting is already on the way with most voters opting for early casting.

Polls are only “tightening” in a sense that pollsters are switching from registered to likely voter models, which lean more conservative. But they don’t really know what a “likely voter” is right now, so Joe could end up actually outperforming these polls if more people who don’t normally vote decide they want to cast a ballot against Donald Trump.

[quote] And based on that, it's pretty clear that the race between President Trump and Joe Biden is coming down to just six swing states — Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. They are getting the lion's share of the TV advertising money from the campaigns and outside groups supporting them.

Are there states the campaign is overlooking? What are Biden's Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania (Hillary's campaign's blindspots), if any?

I don't see us getting Florida Georgia or Ohio. So how ever you calculate the Electoral votes, don't factor them in. I do believe North Carolina is doable, and we will get PA, Wisconsin and Michigan. No Indiana. No Dakotas. Yes to Arizona, and maybe Nevada. IMO Joe will win with 279-280 EV.

I think NV is more likely than AZ, R91.

R91, I agree. Florida, Georgia and North Carolina are distractions. If Biden can't win Nevada outright, he can forget about Arizona. So those two are important. But his main focus should be on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota.

Florida has such a long history of cheating that I don't think we should be considering it a possibility at all.

I think this is the worst case scenario for Biden, barring any massive October surprise like Trump declaring Martial Law and trying to cancel the election.

Meanwhile, today's battleground states polling.

CNN/SSRS Wisconsin: Biden +11 RV; +10 LV N.C: Biden +5 RV; +3 LV

MORNING CONSULT Minnesota: Biden +5 LV

Wisconsin's polls range from +1 to +11 for Biden, how do you even average that?

"That said, people need to stop treating Latinos like a monolith. You'd think they'd be more empathetic to the plight of immigrants, but a lot of them turn their nose up at the undocumented once they get their papers."

In one sentence R26 you manage to completely demonstrate your lack of self-awareness. Not every latino is a first generation immigrant or an "illegal" who only cares about being legalized. Jesus Christ, you must be white as fuck.

In recent interviews on television, he was given the reporter's questions in advance and reads the answers from a TelePrompter. How will he do in a one-to-one debate?

I don’t know, R98. He had one a few months ago against Bernie Sanders. How’d he do? Did he stroke out? Did he stop mid-sentence during a response and wander the stage asking the moderators who they were and when would they feed him? I’m sure you concern-trolled here that these things might occur.

Ahh, that’s right, it’s all coming back to me now—none of that happened and Bernie went on to lose primary after primary in devastating fashion.

For what it's worth I was listening to Michaelangelo Signorile's show the other day And he was saying the internal polls that the candidates pay for are more accurate and the Dump team must not be happy because they’re no releasing the info but the Democrats are.

You can always tell who's leading by who releases internal polling.

Florida poll tax.

PA analysis today.

I’ve been saying for years on here that Pennsylvania is now the most important state in the election. A lot of politicos and journalists still think it’s Florida—wrong. Pennsylvania is the key to everything.

[QUOTE] In fact, Pennsylvania is so important that our model gives Trump an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency if he carries the state — and it gives Biden a 96 percent chance of winning if Pennsylvania goes blue.

I think the calculus is that if you lose PA, you need FL and vice versa. So, they are fighting for both, rightfully. Nothing changed. Biden's chances in PA are still higher than in FL.

Since my state is pretty locked in and I'm planning to vote early, I would seriously consider going to PA to help with the GOTV operation on election day.

R90 New Hampshire is surprisingly close. Biden is only up by 3% in the latest poll there. NH is easy to overlook because it's nestled in among the solidly blue New England states. Al Gore could tell you how dangerous that is.

Do it, R106!

R107, NH is always close but eventually usually delivers for Dems.

Jesus Christ, Hillary won New Hampshire by like 3,000 votes.

You've got a friend in Pennsylvania, R106.

[QUOTE] CNN/SSRS Wisconsin: Biden +11 RV; +10 LV N.C: Biden +5 RV; +3 LV

I just saw these new CNN poll numbers from today. Remarkable. For Joe Biden to be doing that well in Wisconsin after Kenosha is proof positive that violence and looting on television is NOT good for Trump contrary to all the Eeyoring around here. Joe Biden neutralized that “law and order” bullshit with his speech in Pittsburgh followed by the visit to Kenosha. The American people see the chaos and they trust Joe to handle it by bringing us together, not Trump and his twitter rants.

Maybe this guy knows what he’s doing afterall.

[quote] For Joe Biden to be doing that well in Wisconsin after Kenosha is proof positive that violence and looting on television is NOT good for Trump contrary to all the Eeyoring around here.

Well, what has Trump done about it, besides use it to try and scare white people? It seems like a sizable number of voters are seeing through all that.

49 days left. Feels like an eternity.

On election night, I want to see masses of kids in front of the White House screaming "fuck you, loser!" kind of like when Obama won (even though W wasn't running of course).

[quote] 49 days left.

Early voting in Texas begins in 28 days. I’ll be there on the first day.

Should Biden win, we need to keep the pressure on Cheeto to actually GTFO of the WH.

Who will eventually declare who's president and who's not? Scotus?

R118, FEC

The polls are NOT "tightening." Biden is breaking away again, several points ahead of Trump in most battleground states, as he's generally been for 2 years.

The polls were "tightening" during the RNC Nazi Rally of August. Then Trump's bounce disappeared the very, next week.

Nice try, Boris!

[quote] Who will eventually declare who's president and who's not? Scotus?

Contrary to propaganda, no. The actual person who will literally declare the winner is the President of the Senate, i.e. VP Pence, on January 6th, 2021, after the Electoral votes are tallied.

3 U.S. Code § 15: ... the result of the same shall be delivered to the President of the Senate, who shall thereupon announce the state of the vote, which announcement shall be deemed a sufficient declaration of the persons, if any, elected President and Vice President of the United States ...

Biden really did have a good day of polling today. The polls are mixed up and down, but all of them are +Biden.

Biden is winning Arizona and Florida.

New likely voter polling from A+ rated ABC/Washington Post:

Wiss: Biden +6

Minn: Biden +16

I fear what the Times is cooking-up to spring on Biden's campaign in October. Are they talking to GOP senators? Or even worse, are they talking to the Trump campaign about something with which to play "both sides"?

Come to Wisconsin and go outside of Madison. Go around the state and talk to people. These polls are wrong.

The weighted average is +6.9 Biden in WI.

Don't count your Democrats until they hatch.

+8.9 Biden in MN.

[quote]I fear what the Times is cooking-up to spring on Biden's campaign in October. Are they talking to GOP senators? Or even worse, are they talking to the Trump campaign about something with which to play "both sides"?

I think the press threw everything they had at him during the primaries and nothing stuck. Everything Trump has tried so far, hasn't really stuck. Hunter appears to be behaving himself.

Uncle Joe is likable and a good guy and I think most people have made up their minds one way or the other. I'm not really sure what else could be left.

The Times and other media outlets bought into Trump's scandal-o'-the-day press cycle, and now even if they do come up with some kind of last-minute surprise, they'll be somewhat hindered by the fact that nothing sticks in the news for more than a day or two anymore. Which is entirely on them.

Biden's team is using that to their advantage so far, I suspect they'll be able to keep it up just fine. What happens to the news cycle after the Trump era is anyone's guess, though.

[quote]Jesus Christ, Hillary won New Hampshire by like 3,000 votes.

That was one of the states that had pretty fast polling turnarounds and we could see the huge hit she took when the Comey letter was released. I was kind of surprised she won it, she had only just barely started recovering from the hit her numbers took by the time Election Day came around.

I'm hoping that if Barr or someone like him springs something (in Barr's case, it might be "A grand jury is looking at whether Joe/Hunter Biden should be indicted for XYZ") , and the Times of course gives him a bullhorn (and credibility, because "both sides"), most voters will be able to see through it and it won't change their vote ("Oh, another Comey ploy, yeah we've seen this. Not going to work").

[quote] Biden is winning Arizona and Florida.

I think so, too, but FL will be close - like, within 3 points.

[quote] I think they key is, and always will be, the 18-22 year olds.

They weren’t the key in 2016.

They won’t be the key in 2020.

They won’t show up.

Money pursuing the youth vote is money wasted.

I’m glad DNC isn’t wasting tons of money on them in this election.

The NY Times is especially complicit in everything Trump. All of these endless attempts to understand the Trump voter - they are angry, bigoted white people in the last gasp of the US as they've known it. There's nothing to understand. Maggie Haberman and Maureen Dowd softball editorials. Words like "falsehoods," "misleading statements" instead of calling them what they are: lies. The Times pulled their punches because the endless Trump coverage is good for their numbers and their survival. (The Washington Post has pandered far less, to their credit). At the same time, the media holds Clinton and now Biden to the exalting standards that they would for any normal candidate, while the Trump circus gets a sort of wide-eyed fascination. Of course, the apathetic American public is equally to blame. We should have been marching on Washington with torches and pitchforks back when it all began.

I want to marry R136.

18-22 year olds couldn’t even be counted on to turn out for Bernie in the primary.

The media are trying to pressure the Biden campaign to agree to a fourth debate moderated by Joe Rogan. Despicable.

There's a hilarious 30 Rock where the suits are worried about an anti corporate type winning an election and regulating them. Then they see his ad which appeals to the youth vote and they all start laughing. And of course the guy loses.

It would be nice if you could post some links to show your work R139.

Why is anyone paying any attention to polling? I truly don't understand it. Pure idiocy.

We all know that polls are not reliable and haven't been for the past 5 years or so.

Close elections are easier to steal. If Florida is "close" it goes to Trump. The corruption in Florida is deep and firmly established during Scott's terms as governor. They're filth. Now, if the fucking federal court of appeals had not supported the illegal (IMO) establishment of fees and fines for ex convicts, in Florida, blocking them from voting, we would have a chance.

What are you talking about R142?

R141, it's called Google News.

CNN: A Joe Rogan debate between Trump and Biden is just what we need

Opinion by Alice Stewart

Updated 3:36 PM ET, Tue September 15, 2020

One opinion piece by a republican pundit on the CNN site is not media pressure.

For the clueless one at R141, type "Joe Rogan Biden Trump debate" and then hit the "Enter" key. The search bar is at the top.

The professionals came to Wisconsin and talked to people outside of Madison, r126.

AND WISCONSINITES ARE SICK OF THE TRUMPSTER FIRE'S BULLSHIT.

Biden hits 50% average in Wisconsin, something Hillary Clinton never came close to doing.

1. The Times has been schizophrenic as of late. For every wishy washy "OTOH, Trump said..." article, someone else calls him out for lying in the headline, something they most certainly did not do in 2016.

2. James Fallows' article in the Atlantic yesterday, which specifically calls out the Times for both-sides-ism and other sins should help to but a stop to it as it really laid into the NYT and compared them very unfavorably to WaPo, their main rival.

Great article YMF.

Thank you R151

Two nits with it: I think the Times downplayed the Woodward story because it was a WaPo scoop and they were jealous, and (more important) I think the reason the media kept going back to Benghazi is because GOP politicians kept bringing it up and making a big deal over it.

That's something our team doesn't do enough of--they should be out there screaming about Putin's bounties and Trump's downplaying every single day. Instead they say it once or twice and then decide it would be unchivalrous or something to keep mentioning it.

DO FLoridian latinos especially those in Miami-Dade not realize the virus and other bad stuff affects THEM more than any other demographic? and whose in charge of everything right now? trump! and yet? and yet? they support him? UH! do they not have eyes, ears or tv's?!

There's two things that pollsters aren't asking respondents that should make everyone take these numbers with a grain of salt.

1) How enthusiastic are you about voting [bold] for [/bold] your candidate?

This question matters because if mail in voting gets fucked up and in person voting sees limited polling locations and long lines, a low enthusiasm number signals that people will just not vote, especially if they think Biden has it in the bag.

2) Are you voting in person or by mail?

If respondents say by mail, deduct at least 2-4% of their numbers in the final poll. There will be a ton of challenges by the Republicans and many absentee ballots will get tossed. That's on top of the margin of error that these polls normally take into consideration.

While Trump absolutely cannot win the popular vote, he's close enough in all but one of the swing states to pull off a victory in the electoral college. He may even win states like Nevada and Minnesota that he lost last time, which will make up for a loss in Wisconsin.

So in other words, all hope is lost and Trump’s going to win, R154?

"Floridian Latinos" are not a unified bloc, R153

There are well-off white Cubans and even within that group, the older generations are conservative, the younger are liberal.

There are the poor Marielito Cubans

Wealthy South Americans from Venezuela, Colombia and other countries in trouble.

Puerto Ricans who left before and after Maria (mostly in Orlando)

Dominicans.

Other than the Spanish language they don't have much in common.

[quote] While Trump absolutely cannot win the popular vote, he's close enough in all but one of the swing states to pull off a victory in the electoral college.

Would be ironic if gay men are Trump's margin of victory.

"Queer men to forgo their morals this November with a thumping 45 per cent vowing to back Donald Trump"

I suspect that poll has zero legitimacy R157.

I mean would you give honest answers to a Grindr poll?

R155 I hate to burst the bubble, but you know it's coming.

R157 It's more likely that Trump pulls off enough homophobic black church bigots in key swing states, plus racist Cubans and Dominicans in Florida, to win at the margins. Trump will be lucky to get even 20% of the gay vote, which I think is too high considering his record.

This is far more worrisome about the Latino vote in Florida, especially recent immigrants and older people who are not as web-savvy

I spend a minimal part of my day correcting Trump bullshit from his deplorable followers on Facebook. These people are tragically stupid.

From the Politico piece, as per R156

[quote] Florida’s Latino community is a diverse mix of people with roots across Latin America. There’s a large population of Republican-leaning Cubans in Miami-Dade and a growing number of Democratic-leaning voters with Puerto Rican, Colombian, Nicaraguan, Dominican and Venezuelan heritage in Miami and elsewhere in the state. Many register as independents but typically vote Democratic. Those independents — especially recently arrived Spanish-speakers — are seen as more up for grabs because they’re less tied to U.S. political parties and are more likely than longtime voters to be influenced by mainstream news outlets and social media.

The key thing the media is missing in discussing the electorate, besides the inevitable tossed ballots by mail and voter disqualification due to rising eviction numbers, is the small percentage of religious, homophobic black church goers. They overlook Trump's racism and corruption because he's been talking about crime in their neighborhoods and opposes abortion. It's crazy that this is the hill they choose to die on for supporting someone so odious, but they are unshakeable in their support.

In a close race, they will tip the scales to Trump in most of the swing states, with the exception of Nevada. Wisconsin is out of Trump's reach now with the Democrats successful efforts to throw Kanye and Howie Hawkins off the ballot, but it would have made a difference there too if they had failed to do so. It's also worth pointing this out because, for Democrats, black church people came out in droves for Biden before Super Tuesday in South Carolina thanks to the endorsement by Jim Clyburn. If Biden loses this fall, then they need to take a heavy amount of blame and responsibility for the loss. Even though the media will try to shut down that discussion, this defeat will be largely on their hands.

R163 has racial issues. Pray for him

[quote] I think Joe can get Arizona as well.

Hmmm, who to pick -- guy who deeply respects and honors the memory of our sainted war-hero former senator, or draft-dodger who has done nothing but shit on him and his accomplishments from Day One?

[QUOTE] Florida’s Latino community is a diverse mix of people with roots across Latin America. There’s a large population of Republican-leaning Cubans in Miami-Dade and a growing number of Democratic-leaning voters with Puerto Rican, Colombian, Nicaraguan, Dominican and Venezuelan heritage in Miami and elsewhere in the state.

Everytime I read about Latinos in Florida all I can picture is hot young Latin guys walking around shirtless with the sun glistening off their moist golden skin.

R166 = failed writer of romance novels.

R166, Evander Kane is not Latin, dude

Hot blonde chick, whom the news will cover, brings forth new allegations against Cheeto.

One thing I really hate: his disapproval/approval doesn't change.

It shows how cultish his 44% is

I think his true cult is about 32%. I think there are voters out there who are totally clueless about politics, and they lean conservative. Evangelicals might be a good example. It's not that they love his filthy ass, it's about stupidly following their pastors, who have been paid off to support Trump and preach against Gays, Abortion, and "socialists." These people are also racists and those commercials are worrying them. The ones Trump is targeting towards older voters who believe the Blacks are coming after they to burn down their houses.

I've been trying a different tack with a couple of Trump supporting cousins. They like his personality. They're the original "low information voters." I asked them if they would allow a close friend of theirs to handle their money, or their healthcare? Now this friend of theirs is an imbecile. They know he is an imbecile. I told them that I get it. They like Trump. But A. You can like someone and not give them the keys to your house. and B. No one agrees with a politician 100% of the time. Sometimes they mess up. You can still like them, but you don't have to vote for them. They seemed open to think about it, look at it differently. I hope it works. They also worry about peers and co-workers who support Trump. I told them, no one needs to know who you vote for. No one. They both work together at an assisted living facility and they have seen some bad shit. So maybe this approach will work.

R173 here. I also thought about telling them to vote absentee and do it at the last minute...so their ballots will be at the top of the pile....I know.

Turning Trumpists into silent Biden voters - good job, R173!

Excellent, R173. I like that approach for the cultists: give them a permission structure.

Bravo, r173!

Sow those seeds! People have to come to their own conclusions to change their minds but if you can plant a seed, it will grow.

Another annoying "Is he doing enough for Latino voters" article.

Ay caramba!

R173! THE REALLY SCARY AND SICKENING thing is that you or ANYONE knows people that like trump's personality! really? REALLY??? WHAT human would like a mean asshole, illiterate, weirdo loony bullshitter? SERIOUSLY if he was a nobody, NO ONE whose both sane and has a ounce of normalcy would think his personality is "entertaining"?..he's the weirdo at the end of the bar, that everyone would and should run away from!..

I'm telling you these are not political people. They will spend their entire lives being victims of government policy with no desire or understanding of how to speak up and fight. They identify with The guy on the Apprentice. "YOU'RE FIRED!" They are totally steeped in tabloids and T bullshit, reality TV, etc. There are millions of them all over this country. In my family there are three. Get over yourself.

Biden is a hollow man. Sadly I think Trump will win.

R181.... so so true..... i have a sibling who likes trump and why? she liked him on the apprentice... Of course she's uneducated, never watches the news and is totally clueless about anything of politics, government, issues and of importance..

[quote] Biden is a hollow man.

🙄 Yeah, right. 🙄 Whatever that is supposed to mean.

[quote] Sadly I think Trump will win.

I think that tRump is an idiotic moron, who is going to lose and will drag the Repuke Senate majority down with him.

I'm tired of the Latino articles, because they're stupid. If Latinos want to vote for the guy who called them murderers and rapists, then do it. But here's the thing, voting for Trump isn't going to make them white and when the police pull them over, it's not gonna be all cool because they voted for Trump. It doesn't work like that. I get the Cubans, most of them pass anyway.

R185... so so true! at the end of the day they'll still be "latinos" and they'll die in greater numbers with the virus and even without the virus under trump!..

Trump isn't going to lose Wisconsin I'd put money on it.

R187, good luck.

77 chance now. I haven't seen it that high before.

Biden is going to have to provide a reason to vote for him or else the default will be Trump.

[quote] Biden is going to have to provide a reason to vote for him or else the default will be Trump.

Seriously, find another site to troll.

Bloomberg's advertising people have been unleashed! Get the popcorn.

^* That’s an updated version of the Priorities USA now classic “Exponential Theeat” ad, which will go down as the most memorable ad this election cycle. They’re running it anew thanks to a big donation from Bloomberg.

I remember when the original came out in the spring, there was a debate among Dems if we should start hitting Trump for the pandemic early or risk backlash if the country wants to rally around the so-called president. Priorities might have been the first to say “Fuck that” and unleashed the hounds with blistering Coronavirus ads, sinking Trump’s poll numbers instantly.

[QUOTE]That’s an updated version of the now classic “Exponential Threat” ad from Priorities USA*

CIVIQS 11-15 September (RV):

Wisconsin: Biden +7

Pennsylvania: Biden +7

Michigan: Biden +11

[quote] Evangelicals might be a good example. It's not that they love his filthy ass

No, Evangelicals are practically ready to declare that he’s the fourth member of the Trinity.

News from NC.

[quote]Biden is going to have to provide a reason to vote for him or else the default will be Trump.

There's some truth to this actually. Hillary had built up her connections to the Latino community for decades.

Right. When I'm hungry and offered bread or horseshit I need a REASON to choose the bread. It isn't enough that the horseshit is, you know, HORSESHIT.

R199.. well said, then again, there ARE millions who can't decide between horse s hit and bread because more or less their equal in how bad they are! truly trumpsters and trump himself are a indictment of our country...

I kind of despise the youth vote: they’re all talk and purity tests. I’m so angry.

R201 = Boris, still waxing his boner to delusions of Democratic voters not showing up.

They’ve showed up all year and Republicans are toast.

[quote] DO FLoridian latinos especially those in Miami-Dade not realize the virus and other bad stuff affects THEM more than any other demographic?

It really doesn’t. Miami Dade& most FL Latinos are Cuban. Cubans have received preferred immigration status (immediately amnesty) since the early 1960s and were given scholarships & good jobs because they were considered anti-Castro when Castro was our enemy. They are middle class & upper class.

It’s illegal immigrant Latinos who are suffering because they don’t have health insurance & are afraid to get deported, so they don’t seek medical help. They don’t quarantine because they need to go to work; they don’t have sick pay. They have larger households because they have more children & several generations live together, so more people are present in one house. Also, several families are crammed into one house on different floors & in the basement. Diet is poor. One person gets covid, the whole household gets it.

Puerto Ricans are also better off than illegal aliens because they are citizens. Sometimes Puerto Ricans & Cubans get pissed that people mistake them for illegal aliens & get an attitude about them.

Pennsylvania is holding.

Biden is behind where Clinton was this time in 2016 in Pennsylvania, so that bodes well for Trump.

You forget, r205, the poll methodologies from 2016 do not apply to 2020. Posters have tweaked their findings to skew for the outcomes in that election.

r205 is just Boris, a.k.a. the Pennsylsconisn Yard Sign troll, who denies the validity of every poll because Trump simply can't win one in Pennsylvania.

100% POST-GINSBURG DEATH DATA!

PENNSYLVANIA:

BIDEN: 51% — ABOVE THE 3% MARGIN OF ERROR

TRUMP: 44%

Sept. 20 - 23, Fox News

TELL US WHAT A "TRASH POLLSTER" FOX NEWS IS, BORIS! TELL US MARGINS OF ERROR DON'T COUNT WHEN THE DEMOCRAT IS WAY ABOVE IT. COME ON, BORIS, TELL US!

R178 Is it that much of a shock considering his campaign has been non-stop pandering to Black voters ("BLACK FEMALE VP! BLACK FEMALE SUPREME COURT JUSTICE! BLACK FEMALE EVERYTHING!")? The DNC's speaker lineup literally featured more Repukes than Latinos. Don't be so surprised when you see a larger and faster-growing minority group asking for a piece of the pie.

And don’t they deserve it, Boris?

OHIO

Biden 50% (+5)

Trump 45%

Jorgensen 1%

Hawkins 1% . PENNSYLVANIA

Biden 51% (+7)

Trump 44%

Jorgensen 2% .

NEVADA

Biden 52% (+11)

Trump 41%

Jorgensen 3%

R210 "Deserve"? What exactly makes African Americans more "deserving" of support than Latinos or other minorities? And please, don't try to play Oppression Olympics. If you want to court minorities, then go all the way. Right now Cheeto's cyber team is flooding Southern Florida with QAnon conspiracies, while Biden's is struggling to even reach Hillary numbers. They know they messed up early on (Cheeto was outspending them in Latino outreach by 3 to 1), which is why they've been pouring millions into ads in the last couple of weeks and why Bloomberg is suddenly pledging $100 million to help win Florida. I really hope this last-minute scramble will pay off. Chuck Rocha, the guy who took Bernie from 28% Latino support in 2016 to 41% in 2020 and literally wrote a book about it, has been pretty explicit about the upcoming decades: If Democrats continue to ignore them, all it will take for the Repuke party to secure the millions of Independent Latinos is to tweak the racially-charged discourse and focus on law and order.

You can screech "Boris" all you want, though. That really demonstrates your capacity (or lack thereof) to discuss hard issues.

This is what I don't understand about the Latino vote. Trump has been the most openly hostile and downright nasty to Latinos than any other minority group. I get that outreach is important and if the Biden campaign has made the Latino community feel unseen or unloved then that's a failing within the campaign and needs to be corrected. But the other guy has been openly mocking you and calling you names. And if that's not enough, he got you sick. His lack of a real Covid response has affected the Latino community more than any other community.

Many latinos come from socialist countries and do NOT like Biden because they're being told by Trump that Biden's a socialist. It's a lie, but many believe it. If Biden doesn't do well at next week's debate, his numbers could fall sharply. Trump will, of course, interject comments during Biden's time ("Not true" or "Because you're a socialist", etc) so I hope Joe has a way to deal with that without losing focus.

[QUOTE] Many latinos come from socialist countries and do NOT like Biden because they're being told by Trump that Biden's a socialist. It's a lie, but many believe it.

Why would these Latinos find anything Donald Trump says to be credible, R214? Are they incapable of, I don’t know, watching the news, reading up on issues and forming their own opinion? They just take the word of a political campaign as gospel?

R215! exactly ! by now, what do you or anyone call a person who believes ANYTHING trump spews????!!!

OR evening fox hosts who 1) are not even actual journalists (none of them even have broadcasting/journalism degrees, hannity doesn't have any college degree, carlson has a degree in history, etc) and 2) whose network is considered "entertainment" and not news by the FCC who doesn't regulate them because they are cable and who claim they are NOT NEWS!...

I don't hold Latino voters to any special standards as compared to any other group when its comes to being informed about current political events. But they would have to be living under a rock to not know and understand that Donald Trump is not their friend.

[quote]It’s illegal immigrant Latinos who are suffering

And this is any of our concern because...?

OHIO, Biden 50% (+5)

As an Ohioan this heartens my heart.

It’s within the poll’s margin of error, R219.

Ohio is like Florida. I’m not getting my hopes up. The path to 270 goes through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Anything else would be a bonus.

Joe Biden has NEVER been a socialist, he never even flirted with the idea of socialism. Except for some Russian oligarch sponsored spoiler candidates like Bernie, no democrat, in their wildest dreams would advocate socialism. Why? Because it's a unicorn idea of how economies and governments could work and it has ALWAYS failed.

I don't understand why Latinos fall for these very obvious lies.

R221... or think (like some have said when interviewed) the u.s. would become pure 100% socialism like cuba or venezuela! really? REALLY? yeah, the u.s. would, would want or even could be just like those 2 small countries! just for that statement and those beliefs this is outrageous stupidity or knowing lying...

Maybe some Hillary Clinton thread bumps from 2016 will erase all the bad news for Trump and produce a Trump victory in 2020!

GO, 2016! Everything will go EXACTLY the same because all the factors are EXACTLY the same!

New national polls.

Wash Post : Biden leads 53% to 43%

NYT : Biden leads 49% to 41%

I won’t unclench until Inauguration Day. No lie. Good news though, OP.

New NBC/Marist Polls

Michigan: Biden leads 52% to 44%

Wisconsin: Biden leads 54% to 44%

R221, the Latinos in my family know nothing about politics. I mean nothing. They barely know who the president is. And they don’t care to know.

You could tell them Joe Biden worships Satan and has a dungeon under his house where he tortured kitties and they would believe you. They would have no sense at all of what he’s actually like because they would do no research on their own. They don’t watch the news.

They mostly don’t vote anyway. Saying something really extreme is the only way they would care at all. And part of it is that in their minds, the president is an authority figure so whatever he says must be true. Just no sense of researching or thinking for themselves at all. It’s amazing to me how anybody could live and have so little awareness of what’s happening. You practically have to live in a hole with the turf pulled over your head.

For the PA Yard Sign troll.

I still would bet money he loses Wisconsin and Michigan.

No way he'll go from +8 or +10 to losing. If he was +2, or if his polling was erratic, then yeah.

I don't understand why some people think that every poll is wrong. Most of the issues with polling in 2016 were either explained and/or adjusted to fix the problems. But let's be clear, the national polls in 2016 weren't wrong.

R228, your relatives sound like children. Or developmentally disabled.

R232 There's also the fact that voting has already started in several states.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over President Trump, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, released exclusively to The Hill one day before the first presidential debate.

Forty-seven percent of likely voters said they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while 45 percent said they would back Trump. The survey marks a three-point improvement for Trump and a two-point decline for Biden from the last poll that was conducted in August.

Poll: Biden up 5 in Nevada, via @RalstonReports.

Cool, R231, how much do you wanna bet?

R236, The Hill has become notoriously conservative. I trust no poll from them.

Also, that’s quite an outlier since every other poll has Biden at 50+.

Waiting for experts to weigh in on that poll

@NateSilver538

This is made slightly more complicated by the small states (NV, NH, ME-2, NE-2) but leaving those aside for now, and focusing on the larger states, here are our current polling averages: MI: Biden +6.9 WI: Biden +6.8 PA: Biden +4.9 AZ: Biden +3.6 FL: Biden +1.7

Michigan likely voters say they prefer Trump to Biden on handling the economy. But, Biden leads by 8 points in our new @NBCNews/Marist Poll. What's going on?

Latest NYT/Siena PA poll showing big Biden lead closely follows his emerging Rustbelt pattern: Biden is at 39% w/non college whites, +26 (!) w/college whites and +55 w/non whites (& he might well exceed that on Election Day.). It's the Biden coalition evident in WI/MI/OH too.

Nevada Poll:

Biden 46% (+5) Trump 41%

University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School

R236 that's a 4-day old poll from a C rated pollster with no indication if it's RV/LV/Everyone. Newer polls from higher rated pollsters like A+ rated Monmouth have Biden up by +5, and +10 for B/C rated USC Dornsife.

HOW IN THE HELL DOES ANY STATE (MICHIGAN!) THINK TRUMP IS OR WOULD DO BETTER THAN BIDEN ON THE ECONOMY?....

UH, NEWSFLASH MICHIGAN! WHO WAS BIDEN THE V.P. OF? AND THUS WHO DID HE WORK WITH TO RECOVER FROM THE GREAT RECESSION AND START THE UPSWING IN THE ECONOMY! damn, people have "selective amnesia and stupidity"!..

I already had R236 blocked, for what that’s worth.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, possibly in Ohio, Arizona and North Carolina. Its close in Texas and Georgia and Iowa. Biden has a big lead in the 2nd district of Nebraska. Electoral votes there are separate. Trump leads in Alaska by 1 pt. Trump leads in Texas by 1pt. Biden has a 3-6 pt lead in Florida.

R248, Biden’s been leading Trump in Arizona for months, hasn’t he? For far longer than he’s been in Ohio.

Many Latinos are Catholic and will vote anti-abortion which is usually associated with the Republicans.

BREAKING: Joe Biden leads Pres. Trump 54-45% among likely voters in Pennsylvania, new @ABC News/WaPo poll finds, thanks in large part to a 2-1 lead in the Philadelphia suburbs.

A reminder, don't pay attention to the Harris or Rasmussen polls.

No, you add them to the mix, aware of the polling methods

Ohio is a tossup.

Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 51% (-) Trump (R): 44% (-)

Morning Consult / September 27, 2020 / n=12965 / Online

(% chg w Sept 26)

Ohio, Ohio, Ohio:

Pepper also notes that Biden’s “Scranton strategy” focused on his roots and the manufacturing economy is perfect for Ohio, which struggled through Trump’s trade war, saw its worst year for job growth last year since the Great Recession, and would be immune to Trump’s claims that everything was “great” before the virus.

Here’s the crucial thing. By trying to win Ohio, you’re also trying to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the states it shares the Great Lakes with, better known as the states that decided 2016 and will likely decide 2020. All four states require Democrats to win big in the cities and cut Trump’s margins in the rural areas. They all require the same message.

No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. No matter what thievery and denial Trump can come up with, if he can’t claim the Buckeye State on election night, he won’t be the first.

Ohio should reject Trump just for what he tried to do to Goodyear alone. (Can you believe that was only last month?!)

r223 There is good reason to be skeptical of polls in 2020. Only a small part is that the polling in 2016 underestimated Trump's ability to turn out occasional white voters in rural areas. The bigger part is the pandemic. It's all well and good for a voter to say they are going to vote--but we have no idea if there will be an infection spike around election day, how many polling places will end up closed because of workers not showing up, and then how vote by mail is going to impact turnout. one estimate in North Carolina showed black voters are twice as likely to have their ballots returned for mistakes--that means the votes don't count unless they fix the problem and mail it back (and thats only for those who vote very early--if they fuck up near election day, there's no return and do-over.) There's no way to poll for this. All a poll can do is tell you how excited registered black voters are. But what percentage of black vote by mail ballots end up being counted? (And this is BEFORE Trump and the justice department go after any mail ballots that aren't counted by election night). Again, no way to poll for this.

Biden can win nationally by 5 points and still only has a 90% or so chance of winning the electoral college. and that's before Trump's influence on mail ballots being thrown out, which is problematic because he only needs to go after very specific counties or states.

BREAKING: New Quinnipiac poll of Georgia Biden 50, Trump 47 Ossoff 49, Perdue 48 Warnock 31, Loeffler 23, Collins 22

UMass Lowell polls of likely voters NC Biden 47%, Trump 47% Cunningham 49%, Tillis 43% NH Biden 52%, Trump 44% Shaheen 56%, Messner 37% TX Trump 49%, Biden 46% Cornyn 50%, Hegar 40%

Brand new poll has Joe up by 8 in Michigan.

Good polling week

33 more days of polls

[QUOTE]Good polling week

More like good polling year. That’s about how long Joe Biden has been beating Trump head-to-head in the polls, which is why Trump was always most fearful of Biden.

I'm filling out my Michigan ballot right now at this very moment! And dropping it off at my township clerk's drop box tonight!

Screw you, Donald, you kleptocratic, bigoted piece of sh!t.

I would have greatly preferred Warren or Sanders instead of moderate Biden, but a literal fungus-ridden toenail clipping would be preferable to Trump.

Vote him out!

Its comical that anyone seriously believes Biden is going to win.

10/1/2020 PRE ELECTION DAY REPORT - Source data from @ElectProject,@Dansing34, and @Umichvoter99)

(1) 67.4M mail in requests (+1565K). 43-26% Dem/Rep (includes all VBM request states) (2) 2.05M (+440K) have voted - 1628K mail/420K in person. 53-23% Dem/Rep (1/2)

80 new high.

R268, I’m just thrilled with the thought of Dump losing his mind over the poll numbers. And for those of you who think he doesn’t pay attention to polls—I assure you, he does, just as any narcissist would.

Biden campaign makes big TV, radio ad push for religious voters

The Biden campaign is unveiling a large advertising push for religious voters, with a seven-figure ad buy that will air on religious TV stations and Christian radio networks in 14 battleground states.

The new ads prominently feature Biden’s Catholic faith, showing him speaking from a pulpit, head bowed in prayer, or standing in front of a church’s stained-glass window.

A radio ad includes a parishioner from his home church talking about how Biden is a regular at Sunday Mass and how nuns instilled in him strong values. “That’s Joe Biden, a man guided by faith,” she says.

The ads, meant to be a direct contrast with Trump by showcasing how personal Biden’s faith is to him, will be airing in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In one of the television ads, called “Morning,” a narrator talks about how Biden’s faith has carried him through times of tragedy.

“Joe knows what it means to find purpose in service to others, to be your brother’s keeper. And right now, that’s exactly what we need,” the narrator says, before Biden is shown in a pulpit at the end.

“The psalm tells us, ‘Weeping may endure for the night, but joy cometh in the morning,’” Biden says. “I’m Joe Biden, and I approve this message.”

Another television ad, “Principles,” shows Biden speaking with a priest and talking about the lessons and morals his father taught him, as images, including one of Biden with Pope Francis, flash across the screen.

R270.... 'YEAH, BUT HE'S PRO ABORTION (because to them pro-choice is PRO abortion) and so he's bad!" end of story! that is how the corrupt hypocrite evangelicals think..

Not all of them, R271. And we don’t need them all. Or all of the Catholics or Baptists or Mormons or any others—we just need to peel off a good percentage. It’s Donald Trump who needs every single one of these voters, and Biden has so much money that he can afford these maneuvers to siphon votes from Trump’s 2016 supporters.

We are winning North Carolina so the pressure is off a little.

Large Evangelical following among Latinos. Also anti abortion. Additionally, the legal citizens are very disdainful of illegals, and very arrogant about it. They want they world to know they are "not like that." No ra[pists, or drug lords, or criminals. It's a form of self hatred. It's also closely imitative of the whole "Booker T. Washington" bootstraps bullshit. So they lean Right.

I'm in NW Ohio, and its pretty much Trump country, here. But having said that, I'm seeing more and more Biden yard signs. Way more than I did Hillary signs in 16. If Biden wins Ohio, it'll be because of places like Columbus, Cleveland, and Toledo.

Biden looks like he has Alzheimers. I doubt the majority will want to vote for him.

LOL, R276. F&F’d.

Go play in traffic R276.

Biden has cut down significantly Trump's lead among white guys without a college degree. That's the crux of this.

God, you trolls are SO obvious. I mean, seriously, r276.

I see the Biden campaign team are out in force on DL.

[QUOTE]”If he doesn’t win Ohio, it’s over,” David Cohen, a political scientist at the University of Akron, said in an interview. He noted that Mr. Trump had traveled to Ohio several times last month, holding rallies in white, working-class areas in a tacit acknowledgment of how badly he’ll need the state in order to eke out an Electoral College victory.

[QUOTE]“If you think about it, why the heck is he spending any time in Ohio in September, in a state that he won by over eight points?” Dr. Cohen said. “The only answer is that he and his campaign know that he’s in trouble.”

How's it looking right now?

Latest polling for Biden, along with the rating of the pollster:

Arizona +4 (A)

Georgia +2 (B)

North Carolina +3 (B/C)

Pennsylvania +6 (B/C)

Ohio +2 (B/C)

At first I thought "Oh, that's a bit closer than I comfortable with," R284. Then I looked at the states again. Encouraging. I imagine WI MN and MI aren't close anymore.

Ohio.

Add these polls all released today.

Michigan +6 (B)

And a bunch of polls from unrated "Redfield & Wilton Strategies".

Michigan +9

North Carolina +2

Arizona +3

Pennsylvania +6

Florida +5

79. Was 80 earlier today.

I wonder which poll or ‘simulation’ knocked Biden down a point in that 538 forecast.

Who cares? I am shocked that anyone cares about those stupid simulations

I'm shocked people buy into the polls. There's going to be a lot of upset people again come November.

Back to 80.

Care to make some predictions, R291?

I seriously doubt he will win pennsylvania

Wisconsin, Minnsesota could happen

Joe is going to win PA, Wisconsin and Michigan. He will not win Georgia or Florida, but he might win North Carolina. I don't think he will get Ohio. I think it will be c lose, but not going to happen. Arizona Colorado and Nevada will be Joe's so will Minnesota.

And if Trump's case worsens, who are his voters actually voting for? Hall of Presidents Trump? Why would anyone but his cult followers cast a vote for him at this point?

Post Debate NYT/Sienna Polls:

PA - Biden leads 49% to 42% FL - Biden leads 47% to 42%

The article says that voters were repelled by Trump’s behavior at the debate.

But not a lot of movement. Voters are locked in

@Nate_Cohn .@NYTimes/@SienaResearch FL Poll:

Likely Voters Biden 47% (+5) Trump 42%

Dem Biden 93 Trump 3

GOP Trump 87 Biden 11

Ind Biden 45 Trump 33

Men Trump 47 Biden 42

Women Biden 52 Trump 38

Whites w/BA+ Biden 45 Trump 42

Whites w/o BA+ Trump 60 Biden 33

Why are non-college educated whites the stupidest subgroup?

[quote] He will not win Georgia or Florida,

Dems are ahead in FL at present; GA is toss-up territory.

[quote] Why are non-college educated whites the stupidest subgroup

That is the whole backside of systemic inequality: a mediocre white person, born on third base, is allowed to think they hit a triple and are aggrieved to think someone(s) might diminish their hard work.

Without challenges nor exposure to diversity, they honestly have no clue how the real world works.

Cal Cunningham was running a decent campaign but now his sexting allegation might cost us the senate majority.

Unless they have more than that, Cunningham, will win. Blue wave year.

Even he loses, I admire him for being honest about it. As long as the woman is an adult, I don't think many voters are going to care.

r270 If he peels off half of 1%, its worth it

If the Trump campaign is airing negative Biden ads, then Biden needs to re-start airing the negative Trump ads.

NBC/WSJ poll: Biden’s lead almost doubles after debate.

81! New high.

R307, I just saw a somewhat negative ad from Joe on CNN.

For those pessimists who moan "But... Clinton had good numbers a month out, too!" she had a lot of very soft support, and some voters felt a Trump Administration would turn out to function at a more... mature level than transpired.

Biden's biggest worries for me are a medical issue or going pedal-to-the-metal reparations SJW. Otherwise, it's his to lose.

There were also a huge number of undecided some 2016. The polls constantly look like: Clinton 43/Trump 39, or some ridiculously low numbers like that.

That's not the case now.

The final 2016 polling averages per 538 were:

Clinton 45.7

Trump 41.8

That left 12.5% other/undecided.

Right now, it's:

Biden: 50.8

Trump: 42.9

That's just 6.3% other/undecided.

CBS Pennsylvania 51-44.

[quote]Biden's biggest worries for me are a medical issue or going pedal-to-the-metal reparations SJW. Otherwise, it's his to lose.

Oh FFS. Just stop it, dude. Just fucking stop it.

[QUOTE] There were also a huge number of undecided some 2016. The polls constantly look like: Clinton 43/Trump 39, or some ridiculously low numbers like that.

Yes, Hillary had such frighteningly soft numbers. I was shocked at how confident Dems were that she’d win. Joe Biden’s numbers look more like Obama 2008 than Hillary.

[quote] JoeBiden will participate in a nationally televised town hall with @NBCNews 's @LesterHoltNBC tomorrow night starting at 7 PM CST!

This site puts Biden solidly in the lead, Eve;without Florida, NC, or AZ; all places he could win.

It also puts the Senate in Dem hands,

Plus, I think Biden will win Arizona and Florida. Possibly also Ohio.

He's also on track to win one vote each in ME-02 and NE-02, which Clinton lost.

Look at the Times, trying to both-sides Trump catching the virus (and possibly giving it to Biden) and lying.

The New York Times can suck it. They are the fucking worst.

[quote]Transparency has taken on new significance in the presidential race given the conflicting information about Mr. Trump’s health and the fact that his Democratic rival, who is also in an age group that is particularly susceptible to Covid-19, was exposed to the president during their 90-minute debate on Tuesday. Mr. Biden, who is ahead in national polls and many battleground state surveys, still faces the possibility of a positive test; he is continuing to campaign rather than follow public health guidelines to quarantine, and his campaign has been cagey about his health protocols.

Thank goodness the Washington Post is still somewhat sane.

Trump has zero chance in Nevada.

Biden probably will win Nevada, but it’s foolish to proclaim Trump can’t win the state

. Nationally, at least 3.3 million people have voted in the 2020 general election

It's interesting that the biggest peak in 538's election simulations is more than 400 EVs for Biden. At that point Biden would be winning Georgia, Iowa, and Texas.

Here's a automatically updated election map based on 538's latest forecast.

R324 Trump has zero chance of winning Nevada. I am a transplanted Californian along with the 100,000 other transplanted Californians to Nevada.

Trumps chances are zero.

Unfortunately, the data doesn't take into account the real possibility that Trump will cheat, right?

I dont think Biden is winning over the rust belt. What I am seeing are large amounts of blacks and latinos coming out and publicly showing support for Trump. I'm not seeing the Senate flip either. You can come back and say "I told you so" if I'm wrong...but I dont think I am.

R328, ummm kay, but the big experts, including John Ralsto, disagree with you. So does the data

Biden not revealing every time he tested negative is nowhere near the same as Trump knowing he was exposed to a symptomatic COVID patient and still attending all of his scheduled events.

Obvious but ignored corollary...Trump is doing some kind of elderly weird sex shit with Hicks. Melania is likely negative because she barely sees Trump, but “must” be positive so that the ruse can be maintained.

[quote]I am seeing are large amounts of blacks and latinos coming out and publicly showing support for Trump.

Is this is some kind of fantasy land or have the voices in your head become sentient.

Just let's not be too worried if the VP debate bumps Trump a little: a lot of reluctant Biden voters are subconsciously seeking any reason to vote Trump again, I think, and Pence being boring and pious will provide that excuse. From there, however, Trump will do plenty to move them back to Biden - I think and I hope.

Oh for the love of God, R334.

R335, the world is horrible, and this kind of thing happens. People want to do the wrong thing.

[quote]I dont think Biden is winning over the rust belt. What I am seeing are large amounts of blacks and latinos coming out and publicly showing support for Trump. I'm not seeing the Senate flip either.

And you have polls and other statistical evidence to back this up? Trump has more Black and Latino support (according to polls) than he did in 2016, but also less white support than in 2016. Biden is ahead in polling in the Rust Belt (PA, OH, MI), in some cases by comfortable margins, and Democrats are ahead in enough Senate races to flip the Senate. Things could change in four weeks, but what you describe isn't the present lay of the land.

You people who refuse to believe the polls don't seem to take into account that they were accurate in 2018. Most polling orgs fixed the problems that existed in 2016. No poll is going to get it right every time, especially in close elections. There is no poll with 100% accuracy, but that's what we have to go on. No one is saying that Trump still can't win, but my God seek help for the 2016 PTSD.

Susan Collins vs Gideon Maine senate 41-45.

Susan Collins vs Gideon Maine senate 41-45.

Random thought: I think Latinos from South and Central America (cf. Mexico) and black Americans recently from Africa are going to vote heavily Republican in the coming years. Evangelicals, a lot of them, and there's the apparent comfort with non-socialist authoritarianism.

Collins is rising in Maine because she's opposing voting on Barrett before the election. Like she won't after the election (dummies).

Is Collins rising in ME? A 4-5 point spread between her and Gideon is what I've been seeing in the polls for a while now.

R343, I think you're about right.

R332, Melania was locked up in AF1 with Hope Hicks and Trump for hours flying to rallies. Nobody was wearing a mask. That’s all it takes. She’s probably pissed as hell, her husband’s mistress made her sick.

r307 the biden campaign has pulled negative ads but 2 out of 3 negative ads today are purchased by outside groups that legally have no conection to the biden campaign. so the ads continue to run while Biden helps himself by looking more presidential (which is part of what he's betting undecided voters will vote for)

He’s “grown his lead” in PA to five points in this Reuters poll. Pennsylvania is disappointing, if you ask me. Too many Deplorables.

28 days

NEW @CNBC STATES OF PLAY NATIONAL POLL (10/2-4):

As revealed on @thenewsoncnbc tonight, Joe Biden leads by +10 points nationally, the greatest margin for him yet in our biweekly national polling.

Biden: 52% Trump: 42%

Hillary was 10 points ahead Oct. 5, 2016, yadda yadda yadda, just GET OUT THE MASSIVE BLUE VOTE.

Lester holt is being quite annoying during the town hall.

A young black woman asking a question about police reform is supposedly undecided. Yeah, ok.

How is that Lesters fault?

I tried to imagine trump doing a town hall and saying things and acting like Biden did tonight and I just couldn’t. I can’t wait until we have a real president again.

R351, Lester being annoying is Lester's fault. Lester is the one being annoying. One is at fault for the result of one's actions.

[quote] The future is yours and I'm counting on you!

Was there a thread on the townhall?

[quote]The future is yours and I'm counting on you!

That was a great moment from Mighty Joe!

Feisty, Joe's not pulling any punches!

"I'm the guy who ran against a socialist"

Everyone hates Trump. It's just a thing. Everyone hates the bitch. You can try to fight it, but it just doesn't matter. Everyone hates the bitch.

"o one is saying that Trump still can't win, but my God seek help for the 2016 PTSD."

Never. Fight to the end, every vote counts.

I didn't watch the townhall. How did Joe do?

He did great!

Big PA poll from Monmouth coming today.

[quote] Tomorrow, a big one in Pennsylvania. On Tuesday, we expect a Monmouth poll out of Pennsylvania. It’s a big one. Last time, it found Mr. Biden up by just three points in the state, one of the president’s best results of the month. If Monmouth shows a larger lead for Mr. Biden — as recent Times/Siena, ABC/Washington Post and YouGov polls have — Mr. Trump’s path to the presidency will plainly be in serious jeopardy.

Okay, so we don't need to bother to vote?

Bite your tongue, R363. Absit omen.

Bite your tongue, R363. Absit omen.

Latinos: This as well: "74 percent of respondents say they are almost certain they will vote in 2020, and 61 percent say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2020 than they were in 2016."

Michelle Obama's closing argument - just out.

I hate those undecided voters on MSNBC - interviewed today, asked questions at the Biden town hall yesterday. Fucking morons.

A+ rated Monmouth poll has Biden up by TWELVE in PA.

That along with the CNN poll which has Biden up by 16 nationally is a great sign.

Monmouth U. poll, just out, shows Biden's lead in PA growing to +12. Very good news.

Wow!!!!!

OMG R369, I've been waiting for them to release the results today!

BUT don't let this make you complacent: VOTE!

Does PA have early voting?

R373, yes.

Just an FYI... Monmouth had Clinton Up 10 in Pennsylvania through October 3.

Democrats released internal polling by CNBC for Pennsylvania and a few states today. Internal polling shows Biden +4 in PA with a MOE of 1.89.

The CNBC is closer to reality.

The polls are skewed! If you unskew them, Trump is beating Biden in PA by a landslide! Look at all the yard signs!

Point to what was factually incorrect in R375.... I'll wait, r376.

A lot of the swing is Republican/Independents or the chronically undecided who have decided they’d rather vote for somebody that’s going to be alive on November 3. You don’t swing like that if you know anything about politics or have any core beliefs. Those people already decided.

If Trump recovers and gets off the dope, Biden will lose some of that. The best thing is if Trump continues to make idiotic statements about Covid being harmless and staff in the WH continues to get sick. If they come back to an even keel by Nov 3, it’s bad.

R378 the Monmouth poll didn't go from Biden +10 to Biden +3 to Biden +11. That wasn't a swing of any voters. The Biden +3 was an outliers for Monmouth...which is a fancy way of saying the poll was fucked up.

I do agree Monmouth did show double digit lead for Clinton in PA that's why pundits were surprised to see she couldn't win it. But she did lose by a very small margin that state and I expect that to be still the case this year. It will be very tight and the bigger lead heading into the election the better to ensure Biden can squeeze out that win this time.

I don't want to sound like the Yard Sign Troll, but I agree with R375. I live in PA. Step 2 feet outside of a major metro and it's a Trump shitshow out there. Temper your enthusiasm.

Don't take anything for granted. Keep acting like we're behind by 10. Keep going.

I got my parents to absentee vote in VA. Dem of course. I pushed them to request their mail-in ballot. They completed it this past weekend.

Looks like I spoke too soon about Pennsylvania.

[quote] Mr. Biden has also vowed to “restore the soul of America.” It is a painful reminder that the country is weaker, angrier, less hopeful and more divided than it was four years ago. With this promise, Mr. Biden is assuring the public that he recognizes the magnitude of what the next president is being called upon to do. Thankfully, he is well suited to the challenge — perhaps particularly so.

...

[quote] Mr. Biden isn’t a perfect candidate and he wouldn’t be a perfect president. But politics is not about perfection. It is about the art of the possible and about encouraging America to embrace its better angels.

Emerson came out with a Pennsylvania poll this evening showing Biden + 5 (MOE 3.7). Last Emerson poll from early August had Biden +9. The change from the last Emerson poll is Biden -2/Trump +2.

This combined with the internal CNBC poll is probably closer to the mark than Monmouth. I think Biden will take the state, but the margin is going to be slim. Certainly not 10, 11 and 12.

The big difference between these the Emerson, CNBC and Monmouth is that Monmouth makes use of more live calling.

538’s weighted average is Biden +6.3.

28 days left. I can’t take it.

Take what, R388? Watching the Trump campaign melt down? This is splendidly exhilarating. I couldn’t have asked for a better ending.

R389, I just want to see his defeat. The race always narrows at the end, right? That’s going to add more suspense, which I don’t need.

Hang in there r390. I think we’ve got it this time.

[QUOTE] I just want to see his defeat. The race always narrows at the end, right? That’s going to add more suspense, which I don’t need.

This is the end, R390. The race narrowing is dependent on two campaigns hitting their stride in the final weeks, two well oiled machines on a collision course at the ballot box. It doesn’t apply if one of the campaigns is a total clusterfuck of a disaster repeatedly shooting itself in the foot. Team Trump bungles every opportunity it gets thanks to the infantile instincts of their leader.

The media are going to try to make the VP debate a chance for Trump to recover a bit in the polls. Pence will like plenty but he’ll behave more normally, and they’ll call they a “change in tone”.

A new CNN poll has Biden +16.

A new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll has +14, and even worse, the portion of the poll that was done after Trump's Covid announcement was Biden+21!

Don’t forget the Senate!

I hope Biden wins +30. It will be hard for any Republicans to prop up Trump’s insistence that it was rigged.

I can't imagine there are many undecided voters left.

He’s really going to do it. He’s going to steal the election.

I don't think that will happen, R398, but I still worry about it.

Sounds like they’re going to try, R399. There would be a lot of riots and the people would lose. He’ll send out his Proud Boys to start shooting people.

He's not gonna do squat.

He's gonna be on a ventilator by the end of the month.

Bye, bitch!

Biden is up nearly 22.99% in key battleground states as of the last hour. The is complete annihilation. This is going to be a landslide for sure.

They may try to steal the election, but they are so incompetent at everything that I am not confident that they could actually pull it off.

It will require so many things going so perfectly that I don't think it could even happen.

R398, The only thing this move will accomplish is it will help to get rid off electoral college once and for all.

I sometime think that Trump is secretly working with Dems. Everything he has done in the past months suggests sabotage.

POLITICO:

But what we’re seeing now, in polling conducted by both parties, isn’t a wave. It isn’t even a tsunami. It’s something we don’t have a name for, because we’ve never seen anything like it. The president’s standing with women voters of every race, every educational background, every socioeconomic stratum, has fallen off. But when it comes to the white, college-educated women who made up a sizable chunk of Trump’s base—he won 44 percent of them against Hillary Clinton—his numbers have collapsed entirely.

Last week, I heard from one of the smartest Republicans alive, a longtime party operator who lives in a state Trump carried by double digits. He told me the polling he was seeing there was something out of a nightmare; these were numbers he never expected to see in his lifetime. The only thing more dizzying than that? I had another conversation, with another dependable red-state Republican, the very next day, and heard the very same thing. Both of these men were sounding the alarm, alerting me that Trump could actually lose their states, and would at the very least drag down a number of down-ballot Republicans, because women have turned on the GOP at a historic clip. Trump lost women by 13 points to Clinton, according to exit polls, and Republicans have long worried that the figure could climb into the high teens. There is now genuine worry that the margin could explode north of 20 points—the biggest gender gap in modern election history.

Could women be wising up to the fact that they’re about to lose Roe? Is it Amy Covid Barrett?

No it’s the mom vote. No mother wants her husband and kids killed by Covid.

They’re all homeschooling their kids. I read recently that a huge number of women have had to quit their jobs because of Covid. They're homeschooling. They can’t leave the kids unsupervised all day. They’re the ones that are responsible for the kids, not the husbands. It’s ruining their careers. And single moms can’t leave their kids alone if they never go to school. So they can’t work or go anywhere else.

I bet a lot of the single moms are on food stamps because of this, but you can’t pay for an apartment or mortgage on welfare so if they have retirement savings they’re burning it up. And a lot of women’s work jobs like retail are cutting their hours.

Where's Trump? He tweeted 65 times yesterday, but he hasn't shown his face. What's he hiding?

You can tweet on oxygen.

Someone on my Twitter feed posted a link to the subreddit about Unemployment and there were people posting the number to the suicide hotline yesterday after Trump tweeted he wouldn't pass any economic support bill. People are really hurting and they're finally seeing that it's because of Trump and McConnell.

There could actually be some Republicans that have to choose between vote Biden and have food, or vote Trump and lose your house. When it comes down to your own family, what can you do but try to save yourself, even if you’re a narcissist or a sociopath? Survival uber alles.

538 doesn't seem to be factoring in these super-high Biden polls. The best they've added today is a Rasmussen (!) poll where Biden is up by 12.

New Quinnipiac poll!!!

FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40%

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41%

They're rated B+ by 538. Second best pollster with only a tiny Dem bias, if any. Those numbers reflect seniors, all but hardcore MAGAs, bailing on him.

No way Trump is up that much in Florida and Pennsylvania.

Even internal polls from Democrats released yesterday don't have Biden up by that much.

I think a lot changes between yesterday and today in this election. Every new poll is worse then the previous one for Trump. Just wait till Dems poll release next.

I keep saying Trump just doesn't want to win. This is not Biden, it's Trump sabotaging himself with every move he makes.

Trump is extremely desperate to win. He’s just on drugs and shooting himself in the foot constantly, and nobody can tell him no. Even Pelosi thinks he’s high on drugs and said so in public.

R416 but even the Emerson poll released today doesn't reflect that big of a lead.

I have felt strongly that he would quit rather than lose. Wait and see... in his paranoid mind, he'd be screwing the Republicans whom he comes to think of as a bunch of disloyal ingrates.

R418, Emerson like Rasmussen and Change Research are biased pollsters and use different formulas. In addition, Emerson and Change are not daily but monthly polls and conducted throughout the month they are reported in. Rasmussen is daily poll.

Emerson is rated higher than Quinnapiac according to 538...just pointing that out since people here think that's the end all and be all.

And r420 Emerson covered the exact same period as Quinnapiac.

Mighty Joe at his best!

Emerson is an excellent pollster but this is a very fast moving election. Even the gold start Sienna is showing major shift from last week's poll to today. I think we are now going to see almost daily polls from all of them, so watch out.

R419, I read last night he’s finally figured out a way to win no matter what. He’s having Republican governors in swing states throw out the legally elected electors (who are chosen based on how many votes a candidate gets), and replacing them with Trump voting Republican electors.

They will accomplish that by claiming there’s so much fraud the governor has to throw out the entire election results in that state and replace all the “illegal” electors with “valid” electors. I can see the Florida governor going along with this, maybe Arizona and some others. Supposedly he’s checking it out now.

That’s what Amy Coney Barrett is for and why he wants to drop everything to get her installed. It’s the only way.

R425, that may work on paper but in reality the only thing this will accomplish is the abolishment of electoral college all together. If that's his plan he is secretly working with Dems on this.

OMG, lets not get complacent. Get out and VOTE VOTE VOTE. Mortal Kombat the orange bitch: FINISH HIM!

R424 I'd like to see more polls out of Florida, which doesn't see to have the same coverage as Pennsylvania.

And if the governor's help him out with this, they are sealing their own fate. They are destroying their own political careers.

Nobody is going to help him steal this election. It's becoming increasingly obvious that he is going to lose in a landslide. He is going to have no friends left on November 4 as all the rats start swearing that they never supported him to begin with.

A lot of polls just dropped. All are showing shift towards Biden but at different margins. from 2 to 8 points range. It is now a confirmed trend but each pollster just using different ways of calculating it. Ipsos just showed Biden +4 in Florida. That might looks small but it's big one for Ipsos.

For what it's worth, the Republicans in Wisconsin have a flat out refused to consider anything like that.

Also we already had a precedent with the last court battle about electors vs. state resulted in win for the state this year. I think it was Colorado or Oregon???

R430, depends on where they live. Some states are so corrupt they could still get re-elected. Look at Florida. The other thing is, some of these guys are so stupid and greedy they’d do it for money, although Trump’s never paid anyone. These are the true believers that think if Trump pisses on somebody, it’s diamonds.

Matt Gaetz is a true believer.

The rest of them? Craven opportunists. They will drop Trump like a hot potato on November 4.

If any, what states does Trump have a comfortable lead in? Thanks.

The reddest of the red, r436.

But the last poll shows Trump up by less than 20 in WV, which was his strongest state in 2016.

R436 here you go. The ruby red ones.

Biden improves by *17* points in Cincinnati/Dayton Biden by 8 points in Cleveland Biden by 8 points in Columbus Biden by only 1 point in the industrial north Biden by 10 points in the Northwest Biden by *18* in the southeast.

It’s not just Iowa and Ohio. Trump also has scaled back TV ads significantly in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota — signaling a retreat from the Midwest.

But he can’t win without those states

The Cincinnati suburbs were the key to winning the Kentucky governor's race last year.

BREAKING: New Saint Leo University national poll Biden +14

Trump is working back in the Oval again. It’s inevitable he’s going to infect staffers. So what happens when the janitor dies? Will anybody tell us?

The St Leo FL +6 number is pre-covid polling.

National Poll Leads Today:

YouGov (Oct 6): Biden +9 USC Dornsife (Oct 6): Biden +11 Rasmussen (Oct 6): Biden +12 Qriously (Oct 4): Biden +13 Saint Leo University (Oct 2): Biden +14

Biden’s best polling day in 2020

[quote] OMG, lets not get complacent. Get out and VOTE VOTE VOTE.

Will you knock this shit off? No one here is “getting complacent” and certainly no one here is going to not vote.

The excellent poll numbers only matter is those people get out and vote (many, of course, have already done so).

Anyone in CA get their ballot?

#New National @FoxNews Poll:

Biden 53% (+10) Trump 43%

(LV, 10/3-6)

How many times today has Trump soiled his Depends?

Remember, conventionally likely voter screens are slightly worse for Dems in theory. A national spread of +10 would hint at Rs on defense in places like TX and SC, with FL, NC and likely GA no longer tossup.

Maybe, but most recent polls indicate Democrats are about as likely to vote as Republicans

I was just going to post that I've noticed for almost a week now that, contrary to typical experience, the LV polls are tending to be higher for Biden than the RV polls. A sign of change for the better?

Yep, likely voters are enthusiastic

Senate (Montana)

Bullock (D) 48% Daines (R) 46% Fredrickson (G) 0%

9/30-10/5 by Data for Progress (B-) 737 LV NOTE: partisan (D) poll

Woof! Have a nice day!

Poll #132127 #ElectionTwitter

Dems are really motivated, probably answering surveys are more enthusiastic than usual.

Another reason why Democrats are doing much better in likely voters screens this year is because they are much more likely now to have already voted then Republicans, in some states by a two to one margin.

People who have already voted are deemed likely voters in polling.

NEW Battleground Suburbs (MI, PA, WI, AZ, FL, NC) Poll:

Biden 55% (+15) Trump 40%

@davidbinder/@ThirdWayTweet, LV, 9/30-10/5

National Poll:

Biden 51% (+9) Trump 42%

@YouGovAmerica/@TheEconomist, (LV, 10/4-6 )

Michael Steele said on MSNBC tonight that almost 5.5 million people have already voted so far this year. At this same time in 2016, only 75k people had already voted. That's incredible!

Yeah dude

I'm looking at 538 and ALMOST NONE of the polls added in the last couple of days show Biden with less than a 2-digit lead. Those are national polls that don't necessarily reflect the swing states, but it's a hopeful trend.

State polls tend to lag national polls

NEW: @actblue has processed close $9 million from the start of the debate until now. The total from the night of @KamalaHarris's VP debate performance could actually end up raising more for @JoeBiden's campaign then from the night of his debate with Pres. Trump.

The swing state polls are looking strong for Biden over the last few weeks. Via 538's averages, Biden's lead in Pennsylvania (+7) is now evenly matched with his leads in Michigan (+7.8) and Wisconsin (+7). Minnesota, despite all of Trump's attempts to make it seem like a blue state dumpster fire, seems absolutely secure for Biden. Biden gets to 278 with the Clinton states (which included Minnesota), plus Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In almost every electoral scenario I've checked, Trump can't win without Pennsylvania.

On top of it, Biden was looking weak in Florida last month, but he's steadily improving there and starting to open up a lead. Arizona and North Carolina are both leaning blue. Add those states and Biden gets to 333. Ohio and Georgia are toss-ups, and Texas is wavering. Things not looking great for trumpy.

[quote]Those are national polls that don't necessarily reflect the swing states, but it's a hopeful trend.

If he's got a 9 or 10 point lead nationally, the swing states are his. Obama won the popular vote in 2008 by a margin of a little over 7%. He won 365 EVs. Regan won the popular vote in 1980 by a 9.7% margin. That translated to 489 EVs. If Biden wins by 9%, he won't get 489 electoral votes, but he'll probably get over 400.

I called voter fraud if Biden wins by anything less than 100% of both the popular vote and electoral vote.

Don't forget the split states where NE-02 and ME-02 are looking good.

A+ Rated Emerson College State Poll MI*** Biden +10

52.4 to 42.4

Also US Senate Gary Peters +9 over Trumpster John James

Six million people have already voted so far. Less than 100k had voted at this point in 2016.

Voted today. Received my ballot this afternoon, took 30 min to fill it out (lots of propositions, etc.), and I just put it in the mail.

It felt great.

Check out Pod Save America’s Fuck Gerr(mandering) initiative.

Here in all-mail Washington, our ballots won't be sent until next week.

Some states wait too long to begin early voting. Every state should be voting by now

NEW: #9NEWS/@colo_politics poll:

Hickenlooper 48% (+9) Gardner 39%

Biden 50% (+10) Trump 40%

SurveyUSA, 1021 LV, 10/1-10/5

NEW HAMPSHIRE Biden 53% (+12) Trump 41% . #NHsen: Shaheen (D-inc) 53% (+15) Messner (R) 38% O'Donnell (L) 3%

@SaintAnselmPoll, LV, 10/1-4

[quote]Also US Senate Gary Peters +9 over Trumpster John James

Good news, for a moment this was getting hairy.

Hopefully, an upside of the grave news about the plot against the MI Governor will be increased support for Peters.

Democrats are pouring money into the Alaska Senate race

Democrats are taking the Oval Office, the Senate, and keeping the House. Blue wave, hell. It's going to be a blue tsunami!

There do seem to be quite a few Democratic donations going forth out there. Even Hegar in TX seems plausible in at least a couple of recent polls. Barr is certain to try an October surprise like Comey, but it looks as if in his case this will mean aggressive challenges to mail voting in Democratic areas and pompous reports about Hunter Biden's activities, which to my mind would harden opposition to T-Rump rather than soften it.

Biden up 10 in new Pew poll and leading Trump on almost every major issue

Usually I would caution against looking too closely at national polls but per both 538 and RCP, the state polls are looking really good, too. Every recent Florida poll has Biden ahead except the Fox 35 poll a couple of days ago.

According to @jmartNYT and @alexburnsNYT, internal GOP polls have Trump "several points" behind Biden in Georgia.

Opinion by

Jennifer Rubin

Columnist

Oct. 8, 2020 at 8:52 a.m. PDT

Any sliver of hope to avoid a Republican wipeout slipped away from President Trump on Thursday morning thanks to his refusal to attend the next presidential debate in a virtual format (necessitated by his covid-19 diagnosis), his hysterical demand that Hillary Clinton be indicted and his decision to throw insults at Democratic vice-presidential nominee Kamala D. Harris (he called her a “monster,” “totally unlikable” and a “communist"). It is noteworthy that one of Trump’s objections to a virtual debate is that the moderator can cut you off. In other words, deprived of the chance to bully and interrupt, Trump is pitifully weak.

538 now has Biden with a +10.1 lead in national polls. Biden's numbers remain strong and building in PA, WI, MI and growing in FL, NC and AZ. OH, GA or IA would just be a lovely bonus.

Voter intimidation is going to be intense.

No voter registration extension after registration site crashes on last day.

This is why people should be early voting NOW or whenever it starts

Even if Joe wins decisively on election night, you just know that Trump will demand to wait for all the mail-in ballots to be counted before he concedes...even though he complained that the mail-in process was corrupt

Listen to The Daily (New York Times) podcast today, with PA voters. Dear god.

Can you give us a quick summary, R493? Scary? Hopeful?

Wouldn't it be funny of Republlican efforts to suppress voting only ended up affecting the last-minute, predominantly Republican voters, letting all the early, predominantly Democratic voters slip through? Horse, barn door!

R494, scary AF. They make it seem like every PA voter is an angry working-class Joe who'll never leave the Trump cult.

Why do Pennsylvania polls trigger Boris so?

We get a new yard sign thread every time Trump's support in Pennsylvania plummets.

NOW BIDEN HAS A 13-POINT LEAD IN PENNSYLVANIA! And Boris still thinks catching COVID and a Supreme Court power grab were smart moves LOL! He and The Godtoddler just hand the "woketards" the U.S. government in gift wrap!!!!

PENNSYLVANIA:

BIDEN: 54%

TRUMP: 41%

Oct. 1-5, Quinnipiac

That's 10 points above the Margin of Error, it can't possibly be wrong.

R497, being worried about Boris because of Times horror stories isn’t Boris. It’s nelly but it’s not Boris.

[quote] In Florida, likely voters support Biden over Trump 51 - 40 percent. That compares to a September 3rd Florida poll showing Biden with 48 percent support and Trump with 45 percent support. Among party affiliation, the biggest change is among independents, who now support Biden by a twenty-point margin compared to a ten- point margin a month ago.

Nationally, they are down to a base of about 80% of Rs, plus a smattering of very conservative inds and Ds (largely in Appalachia). Rest of electorate pretty much not inclined to vote R.

BETO!

From Redfield & Wilson:

ARIZONA: Biden 49%, Trump 43% FLORIDA: Biden 49%, Trump 44% MICHIGAN: Biden 50%, Trump 42% NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 49%, Trump 44% PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 49%, Trump 42% WISCONSIN: Biden 51%, Trump 41%

But Wisconsin is burning to the ground with rioters!

What is Redfield & Wilson's rating? Those numbers all look pretty reasonable to me, no outliers.

I'm not from NC, but Biden winning there would seem like a massive upset.

Not as massive as Georgia or Texas, where polls have him very slightly ahead.

North Carolina has seen a huge influx of people from New Jersey in the past 4 years. It's going to be a deep purple state going forward.

North Carolina also has a lot of retirees who relocated from Northern Virginia, a solidly blue area.

Does James Comey understand what he did in the 2016 election? That he got Trump elected? That thousands of people have died as a result?

Couldn't have been Clinton's handling of the email issue as a factor?

85!!!!

No, Boris at R509.

Obama won NC in 2008. To me it looks like the state is trending Democrat, but is still a few years behind Virginia.

It’s about timing. It was wrong to announce it so close to the election. Completely wrong. He knows what he did, but says he had no choice. He’ll never accept any responsibility.

NC maybe needs another 4 years to be as purple as Virginia was in 2008.

NC is about 15 years behind VA politically. The Obama backlash was particularly strong there from 2010 onward, fueled by the huge and powerful religious right, large small town and rural population, xenophobia over growing Latin population, billionaire Art Pope, and racism. It needs growth in progressive demographics to overwhelm the negative factors.

[quote]It’s about timing. It was wrong to announce it so close to the election. Completely wrong. He knows what he did, but says he had no choice. He’ll never accept any responsibility.

This weasel and his woe-is-me excuses. He had clear options.

1) Keep mum until after the election and meanwhile determine if there's something there -- as we know, there was nothing.

2) If Ghouliani / NYC FBI office were blackmailing him to announce - announce both the emails and the counterintelligence investigation against Cheeto. Fair is fair.

But of course a Rethug doesn't change its spots. Ditto Mueller.

North Carolina Presidential Average Lead On Oct 9:

2008: Obama +1 2012: Romney +2.5 2016: Clinton +2.5 2020: Biden +2.8

Is Biden currently in danger of losing any of the states that Clinton won? I think not.

Has anyone besides me actually watched Mighty Joe Young? I have memories of watching that over and over on TV when I was a child. It was freaky but endearing.

If Biden maintains a 10-12 point lead, we’ll know he won around 11:30 on election night. That’s how it has to be. Don’t vote by mail If you can in any way vote in person. We can’t leave anything in question.

These polls have got to be wrong. I think people are just outright lying to the pollsters.

There seems to be actual excitement for Trump. Hard to believe, but true.

The excitement for POTUS is loud and angry. Biden won the primary by sitting back and shutting up and people showed up for him in droves, way moreso than they did for Sanders who had the same kind of "excitement". I'm sure that the pockets who love the hateful creature really love him and have made it their identity. There are plenty more people who just want a return to normal who aren't making a lot of noise about it but they're showing up. 2020 will be way more like 2018 than 2016. The early vote alone is proof of that. That's not Trump-driven.

I think Biden will get more votes than Obama got in 2008 and 2012.

The polls weren't wrong in 2018, the polls weren't wrong in 2016... why, all of sudden, are they wrong now R521? I do think there is a possibility that Trump could win, because polls can't take into account every little thing and margins of error exist for a reason. If Trump wins, it will by 4000 votes here or 30,000 votes there. The people who are excited about voting for Trump are the same people who have always been exited about voting for Trump. His base is his base. He hasn't excited anyone else.

Dummies.

Even if Trump loses, he will never concede. It's just not in his DNA to do so. He's a drama queen and would love to be remembered as the one who never conceded.

R518 Minnesota, maybe? Hopefully not, but there usually is at least one surprise people weren’t anticipating. Last time it was PA which wasn’t even considered a swing state before the election.

There was a poll a month or so ago that showed MN very close, but the more recent polls have him up around 9 points, which is more than in PA, MI,and WI.

MN, PA, MI and WI are the states to watch on the election night. If all those are not called relatively early, expect this election turn into a long nasty fight way past 3rd November.

There's no way PA is called early because the mail in ballots which skew heavily Democratic will not have been counted. Likely the initial results show a big Trump lead due to Republicans more likely to vote in person. Stop spreading misinformation.

There are several ways to win without Pennsylvania, fortunately. Arizona plus either the Maine or Nebraska congressional district gets us to exactly 270, provided Arizona goes our way which it seems it will. Having AZ in our corner is a good thing.

I don't know if we'll see a result on election night. Florida looks very good for us but they don't traditionally count very fast and I always expect shenanigans. PA it sounds like there might be a delay, but there might be enough early and day-of votes to be able to call the state even without counting all the mail-ins.

North Carolina is a big one for me. It looks like we'll take it, and it mathematically makes it near-impossible for Dumpy to get what he needs. Here's a map that has Biden losing PA, FL and WI but still winning by getting NC and AZ. I don't think it's going to go down this way, but here's one scenario where we still win even by losing those three.

Oops - I mean this map.

Georgia PPP 10/8-9

Joe Biden has a small lead for President in the state at 47% to 46% for Donald Trump. Trump’s 46% vote share matches his approval rating in the state, with 50% of voters disapproving of him.

"In Pennsylvania, a state where Republicans have been pushing vote by mail, Democrats have an astounding 59 point margin among votes returned thus far. Compare that to a 0.3 pt margin at this point in '16."

Likely voter screens are missing the record-breaking Democratic turnout that is about to happen. Meanwhile, Republicans are becoming increasingly demoralized by the minute.

Returned my mail-in ballot to a secure drop-off at the County Elections Office in Pittsburgh today. Saw quite a few others there doing the same, especially considering it was 9:30am on a Saturday.

If there is indeed a Democratic surge in this election and the House, Senate and White House end up in Democratic control, what happens to the Republican Party, going forward after four years of enabling the most destructive, racist figure ever to occupy the Presidency? They've been on a downward slope since Reagan, where the alignment with the religious right kicked in. Republicanism is increasingly irrelevant to most young voters. How does the Republican Party ever recover? Or do they go the way of the Whigs and Know-Nothing parties? It feels a reckoning may be coming.

A "reckoning" is always coming to Republicans after these debacles. But what happens every time is that they dig in deeper with their alliance between plutocracy and racial/religious bigotry. If they lose big this time, they'll make the usual noises about a bigger tent etc., but then they'll probably just try to bring in more Evangelical Latinos and wait until the Democrats irritate suburbanites for some reason.

I would expect some kind of Tea Party/with remnants of Trumpers group to form and grab the media's attention and get all the press and buzz which will play out in the 2022 midterms. I just hope people are smart enough to not let what happened in 2010 happen in 2022.

R536, they will go all in on obstruction in the Senate and will do everything in their power to prevent Biden and Congressional Democrats from passing anything. In particular, they will obstruct or block any bill that will do something about the pandemic or the economy.

We saw this playbook from McConnell in 2008 after Obama was elected. He kept his caucus together, preventing them from doing any kind of cooperation, and then used the lack of progress in some of these areas as "proof" that the Democrats and Obama were failures.

It's still mostly true today that the Democratic Party is better at governing; the Republican Party is better at politicking. And given the kinds of problems that Trump is leaving Biden, it will take years to fix the damage, just as it took years for Obama to fix the damage caused by Bush.

Given all of this, I support eliminating the filibuster, even though I know that it will be used against Democrats in a later Congress. McConnell has abused it too many times; it's usefulness is at an end.

That's why the first thing we'll do, just like they did when they assumed power in 2015, is eliminate the filibuster. They did it for Supreme Court nominees and now Democrats couldn't block anything. We'll do it legislatively and then all they'll be able to do is scream and rant and cry but ultimately fail. Which is why the presidency is worthless if we don't get the Senate. If we don't get the Senate, then yes, nothing will happen for at least 2 years and we'll have to try again in 2022.

When the Dems are in control they need to take away their current offices and give them closets.

Not being petty just sayin' right is right.

Don’t count chickens now. Vote, donate, and volunteer!

I just dropped my ballot in the mailbox yesterday! No complacency here! I'm in reliably blue RI, though, not PA, MI, or WI.

[QUOTE] Likely voter screens are missing the record-breaking Democratic turnout that is about to happen.

That’s what I’m expecting. I think the likely voter screens will make for a very pleasant surprise when Dems win beyond our wildest expectations.

[quote]Looks like I spoke too soon about Pennsylvania

What had you said about PA, R384?

All I know is that my mail in ballot was approved in PA over a week ago but it has yet to show up in my mailbox

All I know is that my mail in ballot was approved in PA over a week ago but it has yet to show up in my mailbox

They don't have to eliminate the filibuster. They have to return it to its original form where someone physically had to stand there and talk endlessly without sitting down or drinking or leaving for the entire time. None of this "Oh we declare our intent to filibuster" and the other side just says, 'Oh, okay, nevermind then." The ancients in the Repug party will never be able to do it without dying on the Senate floor.

I would love to see McConnell dying during a filibuster of his own.

But yeah, it needs to go.

[quote]They don't have to eliminate the filibuster. They have to return it to its original form where someone physically had to stand there and talk endlessly without sitting down or drinking or leaving for the entire time.

Actually, you can bring snacks.

I read somewhere that most polling outfits aren't doing a LV scan, they're mostly using RV numbers because of the expected large turnout. Or I've seen a few where they give a couple of different LV scenarios based on turnout size. But yes, I suspect that we've overcorrected from 2016 and much like 2018, the polls aren't reflecting the intensity of the Left. Early voting numbers point to that being true.

A lot of the most recent polls are of LV, I’ve noticed.

With three weeks left and so many people who have already voted, they should be pushing all respondents to commit to one of the candidates. Undecideds are unacceptable at this point

I'll say it again, the thing that intrigues me is that the LV polls tend to go more heavily D than the RV polls lately. I'd gotten to assuming it was the other way around. Sign of higher Democratic enthusiasm?

I don’t know much about polls, but I do know Steve Kornacki via my cable tubes, and he often talks about how polling methodologies have been refined to account for the errors of 2016. And even someone with limited knowledge of data can see that the number of undecided votes that are up for grabs are fewer than in 2016.

That being said, we have to vote. Trump and his cronies can’t do all of the conjiggering (a word) of votes that they’d like you to believe. Just VOTE. And maybe pray. Or cross your fingers. I got a little spellbook I’m gonna consult. Every little bit helps.

What if I pray, but I don’t vote? Can Joe Biden still win?

Biden +12 Over Trump In ABC/WaPo National Poll

The presidential race stands at 53%-41%, Biden-Trump, among registered voters, and a similar 54%-42% among likely voters, with minimal support (in the low single digits) for the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. Biden's advantage rests on his support among women, racial and ethnic minorities, independents and an unusually wide lead among moderates.

Joey B tied with men

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's final polling average was Clinton 45.7%, Trump 41.8%. Today, it's Biden 52.2%, Trump 41.9%.

But beyond deficit, even more damning for Trump is the 5.9% undecided/3rd party share - less than half of 12.5% share four years ago. Far fewer late deciders.

Wasserman: Even at the height of Clinton's lead after Access Hollywood, she was up just 6.9% at @FiveThirtyEight: 45.8% to 38.9%. That's a pretty far cry from 52.2%.

Clinton's 2016 lead just isn't in the same ballpark as Biden's today.

Ronald Brownstein: Bottom line: from the WH down, Trump is exiling GOP from the dynamic metros driving economic & population growth. True not just in NY/NJ/CA/IL but now AZ, GA, NC, TX, IA- even SC/KS? Win or lose, GOP will end 20 more dependent on smaller places that are stagnant or shrinking.

Also interesting for the 538 watchers: on the site's snake chart, Pennsylvania had been in the tipping point position for weeks. It has now been moved to a more secure position and they have Wisconsin as the tipping point state. They have Biden favored to win Wisconsin, Florida and Nebraska's 2nd district, slightly favored to win Arizona and North Carolina, and Ohio as a toss-up.

Pennsylvania continues to make me nervous because of all of those rural deplorables, and both candidates are concentrating their efforts on winning the state, but it seems Joe is solidifying his lead there.

Iowa Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 49% Trump (R): 49%

CBS/YouGov / October 9 , 2020 / Online

What about the reports that PA had been registering new R voters in much greater numbers than D? Any thoughts that that could tip things?

The professor quoted here thinks it's mostly people who had already voted for Trump; not a new wave.

President (Michigan)

Biden (D) 52% Trump (R) 46%

10/6-10/9 by YouGov (B) 1190 LV

Poll #132308 #ElectionTwitter

President (Nevada)

Biden (D) 52% Trump (R) 46%

10/6-10/9 by YouGov (B) 1036 LV

Arf arf! Did I do a good job?

Poll #132309 #ElectionTwitter

There hasn't been a single poll where Ernst has had a lead since September 10.

Fernand R. Amandi @AmandiOnAir · 12h

Buckle up. There’s going to be some absolutely devastating poll results released in the next 24-48 hours that are going to cause a meltdown in @WhiteHouse + @GOP circles.

[quote]There’s going to be some absolutely devastating poll results released in the next 24-48 hours that are going to cause a meltdown in @WhiteHouse

You could have said that any time in the last month! Meanwhile Zogby is pushing the theory that Biden is really only 2 points up, because he's using a 2016 model for predicting Democratic turnout.

Is that the same as the "Unskew The Polls" guy who gave every Republican a +5 bonus to their polling numbers?

Zogby has always been bad. Like going back to Bush/Kerry.

Zogby was spot on in 2000, and has been coasting on that feat ever since. He is an awful pollster

Florida mail vote update 10.11.20:

🚨@FlaDems + 358,265🚨 (+16,982 from yesterday)

DEM: 841,355 (33.2% returned) GOP: 483,090 (27.7) N/3/I: 327,943 (25.2)

TOTAL: 1,652,388

Also, given how awful Trump has been polling lately, if the upcoming poll numbers are really "absolutely devastating" just how bad are they going to be?

Oh... I could see his national number in the 30s perhaps? Purple states consistently Lean Dem (not toss up) across the board with serious downballot drag.

Ossoff showing signs of an outright 50% GA win would be my canary that their coal mine has collapsed.

Usually polls are released around this time on Sunday afternoons, right? Where are they?! Let’s go!

The current polls are significant because they are a snapshot of the electorate as voting is actually taking place. According to Fernand Amandi, the pollster quoted at R568, by October 31st 70% of all votes in this election will already have been cast.

So Trump has an ad taunting him as overcoming Covid and Fauci our of context saying “no one could have done more.”

Go Joe!

Not what I said, R556. Maybe YOU should get a handle on READING first.

I’m gonna get mighty PISSED if these devasting polls don’t happen. Wasserman says he knows of at least one coming out. How many more hours?

[quote] R566: What if I pray, but I don’t vote? Can Joe Biden still win?

God helps those who help themselves. Vote!

I did, r42! I bought the necklace, yard sign, and face mask!

[quote]Buckle up. There’s going to be some absolutely devastating poll results released in the next 24-48 hours that are going to cause a meltdown in @WhiteHouse + @GOP circles.

This refers to an upcoming Florida poll. Biden must have opened up a big lead there. If Biden wins Florida, then it's game over.

In case anyone is still doubting Democratic enthusiasm this election cycle, just look at this:

NEW: Senate candidate @harrisonjaime announcing this morning that he has raised a record $57 million in the Q3 in his race against @LindseyGrahamSC.

This is the highest quarterly amount raised by a Senate candidate in US history.

Brings his total haul to an unfathomable $86M.

What could Russia/Trump possibly have on Graham that could make this worth it for him?

Evangelical Latinos break for Trump.

But let’s keep letting them in. Because I’m not sure why.

Who says these evangelical Latinos are immigrants rather than born here?

I predict that in 10 years Repugs will be trying to import religious South Americans instead of calling for border walls in order to get more voters for their dying party.

R587 Thank you. I have a good latina friend, family roots in New Mexico back to the 1500s.... she loves being asked "how long have you been here?"

Large number of Korean immigrants are (wait for it) Presbyterian.... stop them from coming in too?

Many Hindu Indian immigrants are for Trump (that weird Moti parallel) .

It certainly is odd that an anti-Trump person takes an anti-immigrant stance. I hate 2020.

Biden's potential Attorney General picks is trending on Twitter. Who's your favorite?

Biden potential Attorney General picks:

- Andrew Cuomo - Sally Yates - Stacy Abrahams

Sally Yates. Not only is she the most capable and most prepared for that job, but I also love the narrative of her coming back to clean up the mess which began with her dismissal.

We need a kind soul to link to a Part II!!

Atheist foreigner here. What is an "Evangelical" and why are they so influential?

New thread:

Meanwhile, the Lincoln Project released a blistering new ad against Trump for you Broadway mavens called "Covita."

R593, we refer to them as "talibangelicals".

That should give you an idea.

Why are they so influential? Because the rethugs cannot win without them. Talibangelicals are one issue voters - anti-choice. That's it. That's all they care about so the rethugs gave promised to overturn Roe in exchange for their support.

Talibangelicals would literally rather live in the streets as their own children starved to death in front of them instead of allowing a woman control of her own reproduction and sex life.

R586, Grifters love grifters.

R589, I’m fine with mainline Protestants like Presbyterians. More evangelicals is inviting trouble.

That’s so dumb: on what planet are Cuomo or Abrams more qualified than Yates to be AG?

Some Presbyterians are evangelicals. In fact, the fastest growing Presbyterian denominations are evangelical, including the Presbyterian Church in America.