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Mighty Joe Biden Continues to Lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin Part II

The road to 270 electoral votes goes through these three states, and Joe Biden is marching toward victory with America behind him.

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by Anonymousreply 60110/19/2020

Previous thread:

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by Anonymousreply 110/11/2020

Go Joe and you can take Kansas too,

by Anonymousreply 210/11/2020

[quote] As Trump stumbles, voters finalize their choices, and Biden’s lead grows...

Arizona, come on down to Biden country!

Peg Bohnert, an Arizona retiree, voted for Donald Trump in 2016 because she thought the businessman would transform the White House into “a well-run machine.”

Ruth Mierzwa, a Pennsylvania business owner, was turned off by both main contenders and opted for a third-party candidate.

Roman Uglehus, a North Carolina college student, has never bothered to cast a ballot.

All have decided they will vote for Democratic nominee Joe Biden this time, choices they say were either made or reinforced in recent weeks as Trump has stumbled through a disastrous stretch that has included embarrassing leaks about his comments disparaging military members, a ridiculed debate performance and a Rose Garden ceremony that some describe as a superspreader for a deadly virus.

In the homestretch of the 2020 campaign, there has been little good news for the incumbent. And that is showing up as an ominous turn for him in the polls as Biden consolidates support. What had been a steady national lead for Biden in the high single digits during the late summer has expanded to 12 points in early October, according to a Washington Post polling average.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Sunday fits with the trend, putting Biden at 54 percent nationally and Trump at 42, a 12-point lead that is similar to the 10-point advantage Biden held in a September survey. While key battleground-state polls have shown a somewhat closer contest, the trajectory has been clear.

“These are not gigantic shifts, but when you were already down, it makes it even tougher,” said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. “What was bad has gotten worse for the president.”

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by Anonymousreply 310/11/2020

But Trump's Silent Base...

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by Anonymousreply 410/11/2020

Waiting for the next FL poll...

by Anonymousreply 510/11/2020

I saw an article today that said that Arizona is now where Colorado and Virginia were 10 years ago, meaning it's quickly trending into a reliable blue state. It makes sense since the rest of the Southwest is now blue. Republicans won't be able to hold onto Texas for much longer. Beto was just the start in 2018.

by Anonymousreply 610/11/2020

A belated thank you and Tony nomination for the previously linked "Covita" public service announcement by the Lincoln Project.

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by Anonymousreply 710/11/2020

A belated thank you and Tony nomination for the previously linked "Covita" public service announcement by the Lincoln Project.

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by Anonymousreply 810/11/2020


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by Anonymousreply 910/11/2020

Ugh, R9.

by Anonymousreply 1010/11/2020

Trump is toast.

by Anonymousreply 1110/11/2020

He is toast, R11.

by Anonymousreply 1210/12/2020

Biden seems to be the one with the silent base. So many republicans are flipping over to Dems, they are the ones who would be quiet about it.

by Anonymousreply 1310/12/2020

The joy of Lincoln Project's "Covita" is that Donald Trump apparently loved "Evita" and saw it several times. Taking notes for the future, I suppose. His rally on Saturday was like his own Casa Rosada moment.

by Anonymousreply 1410/12/2020

Toast, I tell you.

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by Anonymousreply 1510/12/2020

I'm seeing more and more Trump signs/flags coming down and Biden/Harris signs going up. The farther he spreads COVID brothers, ignores the ramifications of doing so and attempts to pretend COVID away, the more support he loses.

by Anonymousreply 1610/12/2020

...the farther he spreads COVID to others

Not "brothers"

by Anonymousreply 1710/12/2020

Don't give up. Aything can happen. Make sure you vote!

by Anonymousreply 1810/12/2020

Do we really have to vote, R18? Posting about our love for Joe Biden on a gay message board should be more than enough.

by Anonymousreply 1910/12/2020

I don't know, I keep reading these posts that say "Act like we're 20 points down!" which, if that's the case, there's no point in voting during a pandemic where there's a very real threat of violence. You can't make up a 20 point deficit on Election Day turnout.

So if I'm supposed to assume we're 20 points down, then there's no reason for me to vote. There's no Senate race in my state, so better I stay home and keep myself healthy and out of the way of the Proud Boys since if he's 20 points up Trump's going to win no matter what. Thank you for saving me the trouble, I'll just vote in 2024 when we're not guaranteed to lose.

by Anonymousreply 2010/12/2020

Oh r20, DO shut up. You’re denser than granite.

by Anonymousreply 2110/12/2020

Alaska, Texas, and Arkansas now showing "Barely GOP" Trump is in trouble.

by Anonymousreply 2210/12/2020

CNN: Biden is polling better than any challenger since 1936, when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race.

by Anonymousreply 2310/12/2020

Trump apologist Ari Fleischer: “He’s in trouble, there’s no question. By every traditional measuring stick, this looks like a Biden landslide. It’s hard to predict what will happen in Congress, but anytime there is a large-scale victory, it has the potential to create tides to sweep people out.”

by Anonymousreply 2410/12/2020

Meanwhile, Rasmussen still trying to convince us that the race is much tighter with ties in their surveys and high job approvals for Trump.

by Anonymousreply 2510/12/2020

I love the omnipresence of the Biden campaign. I’m in a swing state and all I see are Biden ads on TV and all I hear are Biden ads on the radio. If it wasn’t for Trump’s constant numbskullery in the news, you wouldn’t even know he was running.

by Anonymousreply 2610/12/2020

Any other people in swing states want to chime in like R26?

by Anonymousreply 2710/12/2020

538 currently gives Biden a 10.6 point lead over Trump nationally; 7.3 in PA.

by Anonymousreply 2810/12/2020

Meanwhile in Georgia

by Anonymousreply 2910/12/2020

I fear what the media are going to throw at Biden in the final weeks.

They think there's enough slack to "knock Biden down a peg" by making up some angle to burn him and the campaign.

Motherfuckers might destroy America to satisfy their own nerdy, petty egos.

by Anonymousreply 3010/12/2020

Consistently strong daily polls from battlegrounds for Biden Today's poll by Sienna/NYT


Biden +10 (LV)


Biden +8(LV)

But not so good news for Peters (+1 only) in Michigan. A very close race for Senate seat. I am starting to get worried.

by Anonymousreply 3110/12/2020

[quote]But not so good news for Peters (+1 only) in Michigan. A very close race for Senate seat. I am starting to get worried.

NYT: The relatively high number of undecided voters reflects the relatively low profile of the two candidates. Around 20 percent of voters do not have an opinion on either of them. Mr. James’s favorability ratings have increased to 45 percent favorable versus 35 percent unfavorable, up from 36 percent favorable and 29 percent unfavorable in the June survey. Part of Mr. Peters’s weakness is that he has thus far failed to match Mr. Biden’s tallies among nonwhite voters, who disproportionately remain undecided

First, it's astonishing that 20% of voters don't have an opinion on their current senator. Second, the fact that more non-whites are undecided is probably a good sign for Peters -- even though James is black, his positions are typically right-wing (although, like most Republicans, he's running misleading ads saying he will protect health insurance coverage of pre-existing conditions).

by Anonymousreply 3210/12/2020

If Dump gets a second term, American journalists will be Khashoggi-ed if they don't bow down and lick his morbidly obese, prolapsed anus so they might keep that in mind before they manufacture bullshit to narrow the gap between Biden and Anusmouth.

by Anonymousreply 3310/12/2020

I live in Michigan, and I'm surprised by that poll for Peters, especially since he had a comfortable double-digit lead only a month ago. There have been lots of ads for both candidates, but I'm not sure what would've caused such a change unless it's just some kind of outlier. Honestly, I'd have thought the recent news of that disgusting kidnapping plot against Whitmer would've worked in the favor of all Democrats running here.

It's possible that there are a lot of Independents and moderate Republicans in the state who turned off by Trump and have decided to vote for Biden, but then they want to make up for that by splitting their ballot and voting R the rest of the way. Peters' opponent is African-American, and that might be helping him as well. That way those voters can say to themselves, "See, I'm not racist! I voted both against Trump AND for a black guy!"

by Anonymousreply 3410/12/2020

They're saying that approximately 40% of the electorate will already have voted by October 20, which means that the "last two weeks" of the election are going to mean way less than previously. So whatever they throw, a big chunk of people will have already voted. If this were a truly free and fair election, there'd be no mystery. I'm worried about all the ways they're going to try to throw out ballots, but that only works if it's close. I think if anything pollsters are weighting away from the Dems to overcompensate for 2016, but turnout seems like it's way way way up.

by Anonymousreply 3510/12/2020

Looks like IBD/TIPP will be publishing a daily tracking poll the rest of the way, which starts out at Biden +9. Not a good result for Trump given this poll has been one of his best all year; their previous poll, after the debate, had Biden only +3.

by Anonymousreply 3610/12/2020

From St. Leo University:

FLORIDA: Biden 49%, Trump 43% From Whitman Insight Strategies:

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 46% From New York Times/Siena:

MICHIGAN: Biden 48%, Trump 40% WISCONSIN: Biden 51%, Trump 41%

by Anonymousreply 3710/12/2020

The Midwest states and Arizona look good. I wish polls had Biden with larger leads in PA, NC, and FL

by Anonymousreply 3810/12/2020

PA is a bit closer than I expected...

by Anonymousreply 3910/12/2020

We PA residents have been trying to tell you what a Deplorable shithole PA is, but no one wants to believe us.

by Anonymousreply 4010/12/2020

I am in Arizona and see nothing but Biden ads. On the other hand there are plenty of trump signs on people's lawns.

by Anonymousreply 4110/12/2020

Michigan Senate seat is in danger.

by Anonymousreply 4210/12/2020

Yep send Peters money

by Anonymousreply 4310/12/2020

Nate Silver shared this graphic from the NYT today illustrating how just a relative few independent voters breaking in Biden’s direction from their Trump votes in 2016 are enough to make a huge difference. Worth a look at the graphic and Nate’s commentary—it’s just a couple paragraphs.

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by Anonymousreply 4410/12/2020

[quote] Michigan Senate seat is in danger.

The seat that was discussed a few posts above? Not really.

Nate Silver:

[quote] In the Michigan Senate race, we have Peters projected to win by 5-6, which translates into a 75-80% chance of victory. On the one hand, it's premature to call the race a toss-up. But a 20-25% chance of James winning counts as a real headache for Dems.

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by Anonymousreply 4510/12/2020

Who the fuck is undecided at this point?!

by Anonymousreply 4610/12/2020

Pennsylvania: Biden 51% (+7) Trump 44%

Wisconsin: Biden 51% (+7) Trump 44%

@Reuters/@IpsosNewsPolls (LV, 10/6-11)

by Anonymousreply 4710/12/2020

I think a virtual tie is cause for concern in Michigan.

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by Anonymousreply 4810/12/2020

Wrong thread, r48. This is BIden v Trump

by Anonymousreply 4910/12/2020

[quote]Nate Silver shared this graphic from the NYT today

Nate Silver doesn't know shit. Let's just stop posting his nonsense already.

by Anonymousreply 5010/12/2020

[quote]PA is a bit closer than I expected...

PA is very Right-wing and even Philly has shifted majorly to the Right after a disastrous Democratic mayor and corrupt administration turning the city into a shithole. I don't see Biden winning PA, which is sad because it's his home state.

by Anonymousreply 5110/12/2020

Yeah, the point is Biden beating Trump needs to be accompanied by a takeover of the Senate, or McTurtle will prevent anything from improving.

by Anonymousreply 5210/12/2020

R51 appears to be the Bucks Yard Sign Troll... clearing his cookies and no longer signing his name. I guess he’s tired of all the shit he’s getting by counting all the signs in his yard and pretending they’re all over Bucks. Philly is full on Biden country, as are the four suburban surrounding counties (including Bucks). And guess what? Lots and lots of Biden signs to boot!

by Anonymousreply 5310/12/2020


Texas added almost 300,000 more voters in 2 weeks just before the registration deadline. We're up 16.9 million voters.

That is 1.8 million more voters than 2016 in Texas

by Anonymousreply 5410/12/2020

R53 wasn’t the main problem in PA last time that we didn’t run up the margins enough (to use a John King expression) in Philly? It was all about Democratic turnout (and I also recall it was bad weather there on Election Day).

In between has always been a deplorable shithole — although certain key pockets /counties are going to be key to win there too, of course.

by Anonymousreply 5510/12/2020

Texas is all ads for Biden, lots of republicans who never run ads, not a lot of attack ads against Dems, republicans sounding like Dems. It’s hysterical. On the ground, TX feels very much in play. The enthusiasm this election blows 2018 Beto enthusiasm out the water. Republicans response to the pandemic has caused many people to re-evaluate republicans.

by Anonymousreply 5610/12/2020

Which 3 counties have added the most voters since 2016? Harris -238,698 Bexar -136,889 Travis - 126,155

That is a half million more voters in three VERY blue counties than in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 5710/12/2020

In Austin, there's a Republican woman who never labels herself as a Republican, but she says how she "worked with Democrat leaders" to pass something that helped out people. DESPERATE to link herself to the Democrats!!!!

by Anonymousreply 5810/12/2020

[quote]Mighty Joe Biden Continues to Lead

How nice.

by Anonymousreply 5910/12/2020

[quote]appears to be the Bucks Yard Sign Troll...

Doubtful. But what isn't doubtful is that he's either incredibly ignorant or he's a troll. Other posts:

[quote]Sadly it’s probably too little too late. Trump will win easily.

[quote]Actually they aren’t. You will see that come November.

[quote]Nope. They are behind Trump. They see Biden as an elitist.

[quote]Americans blame China and Democrats for the state of the country. Hate to break it up you. Trump is the only one not kowtowing to thugs. [bold]Trump will win by a landslide.[/bold]

[quote]R51, states rights. Blood is on Democrat’s’ hands. They are doing nothing but catering to thugs. That’s how Americans sees it. Trump will have a Reagan type victory. Mark my words. Deep down you know he’s going to win.

[quote]Americans see this as lawlessness which Dems do t see up care about.

[quote]the average American voter isn’t thinking about that when they feel that their very way of life is under attack. They don’t feel safe in their homes.

[quote]They’re voting green. They’ve already come out against Bernie. They believe Biden is a racist dvd a rapist and has lost his marbles. They see no difference between Biden and Trump and his choosing “Kopmala” was the final straw.

by Anonymousreply 6010/12/2020

High/low points for HRC '16 & Obama '12 in RCP avg (after opponent clinched nom)

CLINTON Peak lead: +7.9 (8/9) Nadir: -1.1 (7/27) Peak support: 49% (10/16) Nadir: 43.1% (7/15-6)

OBAMA Peak lead: +4.7 (8/12) Nadir: -1.5 (10/10) Peak support: 49.3% (10/1) Nadir: 45.6% (6/17, 19)

by Anonymousreply 6110/12/2020

Biden today hits both peak lead and peak level of support in the RCP average

High/low points for Biden in RCP, after becoming presumptive nominee:

Peak lead: +10.6 (10/12 AM) Nadir: +4.4 (5/8-12) Peak support: 52.3% (10/12 AM) Nadir: 46.8% (5/10)

by Anonymousreply 6210/12/2020

Republicans are so fucking stupid. Had they done the right thing, reopened responsibly, pushed masks and social distancing and all that jazz, they’d be coasting right now. Cuomo originally fucked up but course corrected quickly.

It’s mind blowing how stupid republicans are.

by Anonymousreply 6310/12/2020

Thank you, R60, the Buck's County troll is so weird and such a fucking liar.

Here's an article on.. ta da!... yard sign wars in Buck's County, from a local newspaper.

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by Anonymousreply 6410/12/2020

Biden is going to Houston

by Anonymousreply 6510/12/2020

Voting fuckery in Georgia?

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by Anonymousreply 6610/12/2020

r60, that poster is what we call a Concern Troll; best to ignore it.

But trust me, he's not ignorant, he knows exactly what he's doing.

by Anonymousreply 6710/12/2020

Five to eight hours to vote in Cobb Country, Georgia.

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by Anonymousreply 6810/12/2020

'This hatred is taught': Gisele Fetterman, Pennsylvania's second lady, records racist insults aimed at her

FOREST HILLS, Pa. — A visit to a local grocery store turned ugly Sunday when Gisele Barreto Fetterman, the wife of Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, said she was subjected to xenophobic and racist insults in a confrontation she captured briefly on video and posted to Twitter.

Gisele Fetterman, a formerly undocumented immigrant from Brazil who became an American citizen in 2009, said she went to an Aldi’s near her home to buy kiwis.

While standing in line to check out, Fetterman said she was accosted by a woman who said, “There’s that (n-word) that Fetterman married” and called the state's second lady a thief who did not belong here.

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by Anonymousreply 6910/12/2020

Here we go again with Georgia....sigh

by Anonymousreply 7010/12/2020

FLORIDA Biden 50% (+3) Trump 47%

@EmersonPolling/@NewsNationNow, LV, 10/10-12

by Anonymousreply 7110/12/2020

Florida is way too close for comfort.

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by Anonymousreply 7210/12/2020

Guy on Reddit said he waited in line for 10 hours to vote in Georgia today. I thought that only happened to black people in Ohio.

by Anonymousreply 7310/12/2020

I’m voting in Ohio tomorrow. There’s only one location to vote in Cuyahoga County, I believe. God only knows what it’ll be like.

by Anonymousreply 7410/12/2020

[QUOTE] Florida is way too close for comfort.

Joe is almost at 50% in Donald Trump’s home state. You can’t ask for much more than that.

by Anonymousreply 7510/12/2020

R54 Beto O'Rourke and his people are the driving force behind that.

by Anonymousreply 7610/12/2020

It would be hilarious if Trump lost both NY and Florida.

by Anonymousreply 7710/12/2020

Florida is always gonna be closer than we want it to be

by Anonymousreply 7810/12/2020

A lot of olds are DONE with Dump. They remember he and his cronies telling them they're uncared-for collateral damage for re-opening (carelessly, too soon). Only the ones completely eaten up with the abortion issue and racist beyond the ability to navigate reality are still on his side.

Middle aged white men OTOH...ugh.

by Anonymousreply 7910/12/2020

Just some slightly odd analysis. From Steve Kornacki.

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by Anonymousreply 8010/12/2020

Over 11 million early votes in Florida. From one hour ago.

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by Anonymousreply 8110/12/2020

1.6 million rather.

by Anonymousreply 8210/12/2020

Early voting starts tomorrow in Texas.

by Anonymousreply 8310/12/2020

Under the Texas constitution, early voting is on from October 19. I think a week earlier starting October 13th was allowed by the courts this year. I'm not 100 % sure so double and triple check that.

If this is true and you're in TX and want to avoid any possibility of fuckery, you may consider early voting on the 19th.

by Anonymousreply 8410/12/2020

R74, one voting station is all any county gets in Ohi0. They claim it's for consistency, but it's just voter suppression.

by Anonymousreply 8510/12/2020

R63 Yes, years in the future, when 2020 is being taught in schools, the lesson will be that, in spite of all the evidence, the republicans anti-mask stance caused them to lose the presidential (and senate) races by historic margins. But, WHY? young children will ask their teachers, why did the president tell his supporters not to wear a mask? Why did he want the people who would vote for him to get sick and die? Wasn’t that kind of...stupid? Yes, teachers of the future will sigh, it was stupid. And a class of 5th graders will all laugh at the president who was so stupid in 2020.

by Anonymousreply 8610/12/2020

So where this big poll that’s going to send Trump into a meltdown that we’ve all been waiting for?

by Anonymousreply 8710/12/2020

GOP election fraud being investigated.

[quote]California’s Republican Party on Monday acknowledged owning unofficial ballot drop boxes that state election officials said are illegal. California election officials received reports over the weekend about the boxes in Los Angeles, Orange, and Fresno counties. State GOP spokesman Hector Barajas said that the party owns the boxes. He declined comment on how many exist and where they are located. Earlier Monday, prosecutors in Orange County said they would investigate the use of unauthorized ballot drop boxes in at least two local cities

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by Anonymousreply 8810/12/2020

How shocking, R88!

by Anonymousreply 8910/12/2020

R87 I'm still hoping that they'll come out tomorrow. If not, oh well, Biden is still going to win this thing. I just wanted it for the schadenfreude.

by Anonymousreply 9010/12/2020

Maybe the devastating poll is coming out tomorrow because today was a holiday? Who knows. There was a new NTY/Sienna Poll our today, was there? Biden up 12.

by Anonymousreply 9110/12/2020

That was: “NYT”, “out today”, oh dear.

by Anonymousreply 9210/12/2020

The GOP has always been stupid. Remember Gordon Liddy, he hired Howard Hunt for the burglary of the DNC Watergate headquarters. Hunt was a direct link to Nixon's reelection campaign.

by Anonymousreply 9310/12/2020

Who knew revelations about affairs can improve your polling with men /s

[quote]North Carolina voters don't seem to mind that Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Cal Cunningham had an affair – he's even gained ground among male voters – according to the results of a WRAL News poll released Monday.

[quote]Cunningham now holds a 49-39 percent lead over Tillis, who is seeking a second six-year term. That lead is up from 47-40 percent in Cunningham's favor from a WRAL News poll conducted four weeks earlier. The poll's responses have confidence intervals of +/- 4.5 to 4.8 percentage points.

[quote]While Cunningham still holds a sizable lead among women at 54-37 percent, Tillis ate into part of that lead – it was 54-30 percent a month ago – by picking up support from women who had been undecided in the race. Meanwhile, Tillis' 11-point lead among men from a month ago has evaporated, with Cunningham now holding a slight 45-43 percent edge.

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by Anonymousreply 9410/12/2020

That’s funny, I was told that the “scandal” was really endangering him.

by Anonymousreply 9510/12/2020

Stupid hetero men, they probably think that him having an affair somehow makes him "cooler" now.

No wonder they like the president so damn much.

by Anonymousreply 9610/12/2020

We should disenfranchise hetero white males for two generations until they fix themselves.

[quote]But not so good news for Peters (+1 only) in Michigan. A very close race for Senate seat. I am starting to get worried.

I think the cheating will be done at the Senate level this election cycle.

by Anonymousreply 9710/12/2020

(R46) The undecideds are the stupidest people in the country. They are low-information voters.

How can one not tell the difference between Dump and Biden by this point?

by Anonymousreply 9810/12/2020

California GOP admits everything re the fake ballot boxes, says they won’t stop deploying them.

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by Anonymousreply 9910/12/2020

That should earn them a lawsuit and a consent decree.

by Anonymousreply 10010/12/2020

U.S. Postal Service workers have reassembled one of the two high-speed letter sorting machines that were ordered dismantled over the summer in Maine. WMTW-TV reports the machine that can sort more than 20,000 letters an hour went back into operation on Thursday.

The American Postal Workers Union pushed management to restore the machine to help deliver election-related mail promptly. It was one of two machines that were mothballed at the Southern Maine Mail Processing Center in Scarborough. The other was discarded for scrap metal. It was one of two machines that were mothballed at the Southern Maine Mail Processing Center in Scarborough. The other was discarded for scrap metal.

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by Anonymousreply 10110/12/2020

Mighty Joe proudly announces he is running for the senate today in Toldeo, OH and forgets, "you know, that mormon guy", Mitt Romney's name.

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by Anonymousreply 10210/12/2020

The only poll I trust is the Brendad Ickson Consluting Firm pole. According to them, “Donaltd Trump is winding by 10.333 million vootes in all swinger steaks.”

by Anonymousreply 10310/12/2020

NEW @FloridaAtlantic (B/C) Florida poll October 9-10:

Biden 51.2%/Trump 47% (+4.2)

MOE +/- 3.8%

by Anonymousreply 10410/13/2020

PA - today C-minus Trafalgar puts Biden up 2, but 538 weighted average is Biden +7.1.

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by Anonymousreply 10510/13/2020

Trafalgar are a bunch of Republican stooges and are not to be trusted or believed.

by Anonymousreply 10610/13/2020

I don't care if it's 0.5% as long as election results in swing states put Biden over Trump with a margin above recount cutoff.

by Anonymousreply 10710/13/2020

Everyone, install reputable security suites (e.g., Norton) on your PC/Mac (yes, even Mac). If you use Windows, at least turn on Windows Security.

Don't let your PC/Mac be taken over by Boris's election-fuckery malware/botnet.

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by Anonymousreply 10810/13/2020

I believe, iirc, that Trafalgar was one of the very few who were right about PA in 2016, and they're sticking with the same turnout model this year. Not sure why they think that's justified—did PA have a lower D turnout in 2018 than other states? Are they getting this from likely voter respondents?

by Anonymousreply 10910/13/2020

R109, that has to be a mistake. PA went pretty blue in 2018.

by Anonymousreply 11010/13/2020

R109, I meant that has to be a mistake on the pollster’ s part, not your mistake.

by Anonymousreply 11110/13/2020

It’s stupid to stick with same turnout model when each election has different dynamics

by Anonymousreply 11210/13/2020

Why not go with 2018 model?

by Anonymousreply 11310/13/2020

Maybe because 2018 wasn't a presidential election year?

by Anonymousreply 11410/13/2020

PA seems to have automatic recount for margins 0.5% and lower.

by Anonymousreply 11510/13/2020

[QUOTE] Mighty Joe proudly announces he is running for the senate today in Toldeo, OH and forgets, "you know, that mormon guy", Mitt Romney's name.

Oh boy, guess I better vote for Trump now.

by Anonymousreply 11610/13/2020


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by Anonymousreply 11710/13/2020

FWIW, I voted in Cleveland today. Whole process was very fast and efficient (outside of parking, but that’s just Cleveland). I was in and out in less than an hour and there had to be well over a hundred people in line.

Very heartening.

by Anonymousreply 11810/13/2020

I really can’t believe people are still following the ridiculous statistical models like those found at r117. It’s like some people never learn

by Anonymousreply 11910/13/2020

National GE: Biden 51% (+9) Trump 42% Jorgensen 2% Hawkins 1% . Head-2-Head: Biden 51% (+9) Trump 42%

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll, LV, 10/8-12

by Anonymousreply 12010/13/2020

R100, that should garner them immediate arrest and prison time.

by Anonymousreply 12110/13/2020

I truly believe, and I’m a cynical pragmatic realist (lol!), that the only way they can win is if state systems are hacked, and if they get ballots thrown out. People are willing to stand there and wait, what does that say???? But both of these “blocks” ARE happening. So that worries me a great deal, but it is beyond exhilarating to know that the majority AGREE that Orange mother fucker must go bye-bye.

I hope you’ve all voted. I did early in person in Illinois, I was really worried about making a mistake on my mail-in or it going missing.

by Anonymousreply 12210/13/2020

The C Susan Collins is going to lose, right?

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by Anonymousreply 12310/13/2020

Jesus, his RCP advantage is now 10 points.

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by Anonymousreply 12410/13/2020

US citizen here who grew up outside the US and never spent more than five consecutive months there. I voted (by absentee ballot) for Biden last week. It was the first time in my life I voted in a US election.

by Anonymousreply 12510/13/2020

Thank you, R125! I hope many Americans overseas did the same.

by Anonymousreply 12610/13/2020

These surreal final few weeks almost feels like the last 20 or so minutes of a horror film.

by Anonymousreply 12710/13/2020

There's an alternate universe out there in which Bernie is the nominee. I'd be feeling much more nervous now if I lived in that one (and I'm pretty nervous about the election as it is!). Back at the beginning of the year, when it looked as though Bernie would beat Biden, I talked myself into believing he could beat Trump. With retrospect, I think choosing him would have been a major gamble.

by Anonymousreply 12810/13/2020

Bernie would be being crushed by Trump right now were he the nominee.

by Anonymousreply 12910/13/2020

Over 110,000 voted today in Harris County (Houston). First day of early voting in Texas.

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by Anonymousreply 13010/13/2020

After recent surge, Trump is outpacing Biden on Facebook ad buys in battleground states

By Jeremy B. Merrill and Kevin Schaul

October 13 at 11:39 AM

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by Anonymousreply 13110/13/2020

As of now, over 128,000 people voted in Harris County today! This is a historic day for us, that number is the highest turnout on a single day.

Polls will be open tomorrow from 7AM to 7PM.

by Anonymousreply 13210/13/2020

NO straight party voting in Texas, which was ridiculous.

Also, we got a paper ballot, put it in the machine, voted digitally, then it put our answers on the paper ballot. Then we had to put the ballot into another machine which would read our votes.

Was this all some fuckery to weed out Democratic votes?

I've never had to take a paper ballot and have it printed and then insert it into another machine before.

Texan voter since 1984 (my guy lost then, obviously).

by Anonymousreply 13310/13/2020

I love this Tweet from Wasserman.

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by Anonymousreply 13410/13/2020

Complacency is extremely dangerous.

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by Anonymousreply 13510/13/2020

Wow. Polls still haven’t closed because of long lines in Harris County (#Houston), but with 128,000 voters and counting we have surpassed the entire state of Georgia’s first-day turnout yesterday. Our old record was 68k. Just remarkable. 🗳

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by Anonymousreply 13610/13/2020

People are fed up with Trump’s scaremongering and voter intimidation. Local suppression, too. They’re waiting in line because they’re fed up.

by Anonymousreply 13710/13/2020

Why is increased voter turnout always favorable for the Democrats? Seriously asking.

by Anonymousreply 13810/13/2020

National GE: Biden 50% (+11) Trump 39% Jorgensen 3% Hawkins 1% West 1%

@leger360, LV, 10/9-11

by Anonymousreply 13910/13/2020

Exactly, r137.

The GOP should be shitting their diapers. They are toast.

by Anonymousreply 14010/13/2020

Some dummy is goading his audience to commit violence.

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by Anonymousreply 14110/13/2020

R133, that's how we do it in Ohio too. I read my ticket to make sure it got my votes right. That's about all you can do.

by Anonymousreply 14210/13/2020

R138, don't quote me on this but I think it's because the Repubs are consistently reliable in GOTV unlike the Dems.

So a major surge in voters is more likely signaling increased Dem participation.

by Anonymousreply 14310/13/2020

^^It's also where the surge is (which counties and areas).

by Anonymousreply 14410/13/2020

Republicans tend to be reliable voters and their numbers remain pretty consistent year after year. When voting numbers increase, it's usually democratic numbers.

by Anonymousreply 14510/13/2020

Travis county in TX (Austin) has a record breaking 97% voter registration.

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by Anonymousreply 14610/13/2020

Former President Barack Obama is expected to hit the campaign trail next week, Democratic officials tell CNN, as he looks to step up his work in support of his one-time partner -- former Vice President Joe Biden -- in the final stretch of the election.

His schedule has not been finalized, officials said, but states under consideration for his solo appearances include Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and more. The Biden campaign believes Obama can help in three particular areas, officials say, including: Black men, Latinos and young voters.

by Anonymousreply 14710/13/2020

At a PA rally today, Agent Orange showcases his 'winning personality':

[quote]Suburban women, they should like me more than anybody here tonight because I ended the regulation that destroyed your neighborhood. I ended the regulation that brought crime to the suburbs, and you’re going to live the American dream,” he added. “So can I ask you to do me a favor? Suburban women, will you please like me? [bold]I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?[/bold]"

by Anonymousreply 14810/13/2020

Please clap

by Anonymousreply 14910/13/2020

What a cunt, he doesn't even try to hide his racism anymore does he?


by Anonymousreply 15010/13/2020

[quote]that's how we do it in Ohio too

Ohio here, too. The main races are all listed as D or R, but for the various judgeships, you have to do a little research. I wish the Ds were more proactive about sending out sample picks with their endorsed picks.

by Anonymousreply 15110/14/2020

I don't know where you live in Ohio, R151, but I've received three postcards with the Dem endorsed candidates, but I'm in solid blue NEO.

by Anonymousreply 15210/14/2020

From Ipsos:

MICHIGAN: Biden 51%, Trump 43% NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 48%, Trump 47% From University of New Hampshire:

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Biden 55%, Trump 43% From RMG Research:

FLORIDA: Biden 48%, Trump 46% NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 47%, Trump 45%

by Anonymousreply 15310/14/2020

R151, the Ohio Democratic Party has a chase campaign where they are sending slate cards to all registered Democrats who request an absentee ballot.

by Anonymousreply 15410/14/2020

MILLION EARLY VOTER CLUB (10/14) Now has 4 members: CA (1.2M), FL (1.9M), MI (1.1M), and VA (1.1M). NJ will most likely "join the club" today (942K returned ballots). Same with GA (746K) and TX (763K), now that in person early voting is underway.

by Anonymousreply 15510/14/2020

"EARLY VOTING OLYMPICS", 10/14 EDITION (Gold) 1894K in FL (20% of vote total from 2016 has already voted) (Silver) 1169K in CA (8%) (Bronze) 1068K in MI (22%) Honorable mention: 1059K in VA (27%). Note how CA leapfrogged into silver. It'll be gold within 1-2 days.

by Anonymousreply 15610/14/2020

[QUOTE] NEW HAMPSHIRE: Biden 55%, Trump 43%

And I thought New Hampshire was gonna be tough.

by Anonymousreply 15710/14/2020

So, Trumpers think they have their October Surprise with NY Post about Hunter Biden referring to his dad introducing him to a Ukrainian official. Of course, Maggie Habberman is repeating it.

by Anonymousreply 15810/14/2020

New YouGov/The Economist national poll of likely voters this morning: Biden: 52% Trump: 42 Other: 1 Undecided: 4 Among those who support Biden or Trump, 97% say their minds are made up. Respondents who say they already voted support Biden by a nearly 40-point margin, 68-29.

by Anonymousreply 15910/14/2020

The NY Post story on Biden emails, sourced by Giuliani to an outlet owned by Fox News’s Rupert Murdoch, has **already been debunked.**

You should unfollow mainstream reporters who blindly (and gleefully) shared it without even a second of fact-checking.

by Anonymousreply 16010/14/2020

[QUOTE] So, Trumpers think they have their October Surprise with NY Post about Hunter Biden referring to his dad introducing him to a Ukrainian official. Of course, Maggie Habberman is repeating it.

😂 Nobody cares about Hunter Biden. These guys still don’t get it. I’d love it if they spent the final weeks talking about Hunter instead of focusing on how they’re going to improve the safety and economic situation of Americans.

by Anonymousreply 16110/14/2020

The Hunter Biden stuff is really beating a dead horse. Nobody cared in January, nobody cared in June, and nobody cares now.

Nothing has stuck to Joe Biden, so outside of a video showing him fucking an underage girl, nothing will at this point.

The election is a referendum on Trump. Period.

by Anonymousreply 16210/14/2020


Biden Is Not Out of the Woods

Unanticipated electoral developments are affecting both presidential campaigns in surprising ways.

Thomas B. Edsall

Mr. Edsall contributes a weekly column from Washington, D.C. on politics, demographics and inequality.

Oct. 14, 2020

With 20 days to go, most signals favor Joe Biden, but the chain of events that delivered an Electoral College victory to Donald Trump in 2016 still hovers in the rearview mirror.

Recent headlines reflect the widespread view that Biden is poised to prevail:

Washington Post: “As Trump stumbles, voters finalize their choices, and Biden’s lead grows”; New York Times: “Virus Pulls Down Trump, Poll Shows, and G.O.P. Senators Suffer With Him”; Wall Street Journal: “Biden Scores 14-Point Lead Over Trump in Poll After Debate.”

One thing continues to stand out, even in the polls these pieces describe, which is that white Democrats, who remain the majority in their party, have been moving leftward for nearly a decade, particularly on racial and moral issues, and that shift has pushed the party further away from the nation’s median voter. This gap has damaged Democratic prospects in the past, but the ultimate outcome of Trump’s determined efforts to capitalize on it has not yet been revealed.

Here are some of the things causing anxiety among Democratic partisans, particularly political professionals.

One way to measure voter enthusiasm is to compare voter registration trends for each party. A Democratic strategist who closely follows the data on a day-to-day basis wrote in a privately circulated newsletter:

***Since last week, the share of white non-college over 30 registrations in the battleground states has increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just 6 points. And there are serious signs of political engagement by white non-college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections.

David Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report. wrote on Oct. 1 that voter registration patterns over a longer period in key battleground states show that “Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016.”

Four of the six states Trump won by fewer than five points in 2016 allow voters to register by party: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In recent months, there have been substantially more Republicans added to the rolls than Democrats in each of them except for Arizona.

Wasserman’s data:

Florida, since the state’s March primary, added 195,652 Republicans and 98,362 Democrats.

Pennsylvania, since June, Republicans plus 135,619, Democrats up 57,985.

North Carolina, since March, Republicans up 83,785 to Democrats 38,137.

In Arizona, the exception, “Democrats out-registered Republicans 31,139 to 29,667” in recent months.

Turning from registration figures to polling data, many trends are favorable to Biden, but not all of them.

For example, there has been a modest drop in the Democratic margin of support among Hispanic Catholics, according to surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center.

More worrisome for Biden, the Pew survey shows modestly weakened support among Black women, a key Democratic constituency. Black women supported Clinton over Trump 98 to 1; this year they support Biden over Trump 91-6.

Evangelical white protestants remain firmly in Trump’s camp, backing him by 61 points over Biden, the same margin he had against Clinton in 2016.

Democratic strategists are also worried about how well their voters will perform in properly requesting, filling out and mailing in absentee ballots.

More than twice as many Biden voters as Trump voters — the actual ratio is 2.4 to 1 — plan to cast ballots by mail, according to polling by Pew. So far, however, Democratic requests for absentee ballots have not reached the levels that surveys suggest will be needed for the party to cast votes at full strength on Election Day.


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by Anonymousreply 16310/14/2020

At the same time, there are multiple developments bolstering Democratic confidence as the election approaches.

In addition to the overall poll data favoring Biden, many of the demographic details are welcome news to Democrats.

The relatively minor decline in Democratic support among Hispanic Catholics, for example, is more than made up for by Democratic improvement among non-Hispanic white Catholics. In 2016, Trump crushed Clinton among this group, 64-31, or 33 points; now Trump leads Biden by 52-44, or by 8 points.

Biden has cut into other key 2016 Trump voting blocs, including whites without college degrees, white men, middle-income whites and married men. He has done so while strengthening support among constituencies that have been trending Democratic for a while: white women with college degrees, young voters between the ages of 18 and 29, upper-income voters and single women.

The fastest growing religious category — atheists, agnostics and “nothing in particular” — has become an even more rock-solid Democratic constituency. In 2016, the nonreligious voted 65-24 for Clinton; according to the most recent Pew data, Biden leads Trump among these voters 71-22.

Scholarly studies of voter attitudes reinforce the pluses and minuses we see in Biden’s poll numbers.

One recent study, “Racial attitudes & political cross-pressures in nationalized elections: The case of the Republican coalition in the Trump era by Carlos Algara and Isaac Hale, political scientists at the University of Texas-El Paso and the University of California-Davis, found that there continue to be large numbers of racially conservative Democrats who can be persuaded to vote for Republicans candidates.

As Algara and Isaac put it:

***Even during the era of highly nationalized and partisan elections, racial attitudes are still a mechanism by which Republicans can win significant electoral support among Democrats and relatively liberal voters in the white electorate.


by Anonymousreply 16410/14/2020

The ability of Republicans to capitalize on “conservative racial attitudes helped mitigate Republican losses during the 2018 midterm elections,” the two argue.

As a result of the effectiveness of this racial strategy,

*** We expect that Republican candidates for federal office will continue to make racial appeals in the 2020 campaign — and reap electoral rewards for doing so.

I asked Algara how well the argument holds up given other studies that show white Democrats are becoming more liberal on racial issues. He replied by email: “Among white Democrats, there is still a healthy amount of variation in racial conservatism,” Algara noted, adding that

*** the greater this differential, the greater the likelihood this cleavage grows within white Democrats, to the electoral benefit of Republicans. We also show this cleavage exists among white voters that are closer in ideological proximity to liberal Democratic candidates. In sum, our results show that while white Democrats are becoming more liberal on their racial attitudes, variation still exists and Republicans can exploit this variation toward their electoral aims by generating support among white Democrats that still exhibit more racially conservative attitudes.

Another paper, “Disavowing White Identity: How Social Disgust Can Change Social Identities,” provides a different assessment of how racial issues are playing out among white voters. The authors — Ashley Jardina, Nathan Kalmoe and Kimberly Gross of Duke, Louisiana State and George Washington Universities — argue that Trump has gone too far in his use of racially charged messages, provoking disgust among a segment of voters. This disgust has, in turn, driven many white voters to lessen or abandon their sense of white identity or white solidarity.

“The decline in white identity was driven mostly by whites expressing disgust toward Trump,” they write.

In other words, by pushing racist themes and rhetoric to extremes, Trump has damaged his ability to continue to capitalize on an issue that was essential to his victory in 2016, according to the authors.

Crucially, Jardina, Kalmoe and Gross note that

*** We find that it is disgust, in particular, and not just negative Trump affect or negative Trump attitudes in general, that is most tied to changes in white racial identity.

Separately, Jardina shared data that she and Trent Ollerenshaw, a political science graduate student at Duke, put together, which shows a key aspect of the leftward shift among Democrats: a sharp decline in racial resentment among white Democrats, particularly from 2012 to 2020.

A similar pattern emerges in studies of other issues.


by Anonymousreply 16510/14/2020

A similar pattern emerges in studies of other issues.

Steven W. Webster, a political scientist at Indiana University, provided The Times with data that also showed a widening gulf between white Republicans and Democrats on questions designed to measure “moral traditionalism.”

The survey asked people on a zero to 4 scale to “agree strongly” or “disagree strongly” with four statements:

1. Newer lifestyles are contributing to the breakdown of our society.

2. The world is always changing and we should adjust our view of moral behavior to those changes.

3. This country would have many fewer problems if there were more emphasis on traditional family ties.

4. We should be more tolerant of people who choose to live according to their own moral standards, even if they are very different from our own.

From 2000 to 2016, white Republicans maintained consistently high levels of moral traditionalism, according to Webster’s research, dropping less than a point, from 10.9 to 10.1, over the 16-year period. White Democrats, in contrast, dropped by 3.2 points, from 8.8 to 5.6.

Webster’s data show that partisan divisions between Democrats and Republicans over moral traditionalism went from a middling split in 2000 to a much more severe split, with much less possibility of compromise, in 2016 — and there is no reason to believe this trend has abated in 2020.

On a broader scale, Brian Schaffner, a political scientist at Tufts, provided The Times with data on trends on an “ideological liberalism scale” for white, Black and Hispanic Democrats, and for all Republicans. The scale is based on answers to survey questions about health care, immigration, gay marriage, gun control, the environment and government spending from 2010 to 2018, collected by the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.

Republicans maintained a consistently low liberalism score through all eight years. Democratic constituencies became uniformly more liberal, but the shift to the left was most pronounced among white Democrats, who pulled well ahead of their Black and Hispanic co-partisans.

All of these findings add credibility to an analysis of contemporary politics that Jeffrey Stonecash, an emeritus political science professor at Syracuse University, sent to me.

To understand the election, Stonecash wrote, we should be asking “about what values and ideas are driving polarization and which groups embrace some ideas rather than others.” At the moment, he argues, Americans seems intensely divided by the question:

*** What defines America: is it a set of people (white, Christian) or is it a set of ideals that anyone can come and achieve. To the former immigrants are an alien threat and dangerous (as it has always been in American history). What value should prevail: individual rights and anti-government beliefs or is there a collective interest that sometimes requires some constraints on individuals?

Out of these basic issues, further questions arise at the center of political debate, Stonecash continued:

*** Are there traditional moral behaviors that must be followed or should there be more freedom to pursue individual choices? What is patriotism: is it celebrating how great the nation is while downplaying faults or is it taking a hard look at how well we fulfill our ideals and being critical when necessary? How does America really work: can any individual succeed or are there systematic limitations and discriminations?

Over time, the two parties have staked out consistently opposing views on these questions, many of which are driven by the views of voters toward immigration and the prospect that whites are projected to become a minority in roughly 25 years.

The composition of the two parties has, in turn, come to reflect this partisan division: a Republican Party that has barely changed over the past two decades and a Democratic Party that has become the embodiment of diversity.


by Anonymousreply 16610/14/2020

In “An analysis of the changing social bases of America’s political parties,” Joshua N. Zingher, a political scientist at Old Dominion University, describes the contrasting demographic dynamics of the two parties in detail.

Start with the Republican electorate. From 2000 to 2016, the share of white non-college voters, of Protestants, of weekly church attendees, changed by a single percentage point or less, despite the fact that the country has experienced rapid change.

For Democrats, in contrast, the share of African-Americans rose from 20 to 27 percent; of Latinos from 8 to 19 percent, of the nonreligious from 18 to 31 percent and of white college graduates from 25 to 29 percent.

The two parties now embody the broad divisions over values and diversity described by Stonecash — over the questions, in his words, of “who is a ‘real American,’ who is deserving and whose lives and beliefs should be honored.”

These values conflicts are real, they are deeply felt, and have become ever more central to the competing visions of what kind of a country Americans want to live in.

In less than three weeks, the people will speak. There is a huge market for what Trump is selling, and the fact that Trump has the loyalty of 40 to 45 percent of the electorate speaks to that. If Biden wins, can the Democrats move past mobilizing voters in opposition to Trump to the development of a governing strategy that builds and maintains a functional majority coalition, instead of provoking a repeat of the post-victory waves of opposition that plagued the party in 1994 and 2010?

The question of the hour, though, is what happens if and when Trump himself is taken out of the political equation. In what guise might the ethnonationalism he has mobilized re-emerge? Can Biden contain the forces that are now on the loose? How likely is the country, or the world for that matter, to reach a state of near ungovernability? Is there any candidate, or any movement, that represents a way out of today’s extreme partisanship? Or are we venturing toward the point of no return?

by Anonymousreply 16710/14/2020

[quote] Nothing has stuck to Joe Biden, so outside of a video showing him fucking an underage girl, nothing will at this point.

Funny you should say this; a former manager I haven't spoken to in years showed up in the comments to one of my social media posts during the VP debate and made a remark along the lines that this would be the only thing that Joe could do that would impress him. Of course he got rightfully flamed by the rest of my contacts, but it goes to show that there is an faction of knuckle-dragging misogynists who are proudly, willfully ignorant.

An underage boy, however...

by Anonymousreply 16810/14/2020

R163 opening of the piece - my stomach is slightly queasy.

by Anonymousreply 16910/14/2020

Well, I'm hopeful that some of those Republicans are more inclined towards voting "Country over Party" especially since the party is Trump. Nothing else, just Trump. There are too many Republicans against Trump groups to make me think anything different.

by Anonymousreply 17010/14/2020

We’ve got enough Democrats and independents to get us to 270 if they’d just vote. We never really needed any help from Republicans.

by Anonymousreply 17110/14/2020

I want to tear down the Supreme Court's building. I want them delegitimized, the smug fucks. I need them to feel so threatened by their possible destruction that the conservatives reverse course. I want millions of people outside the building, literally using chisels and hammers to tear it down. I'm so fucking sick of the court.

by Anonymousreply 17210/14/2020


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by Anonymousreply 17310/14/2020

That NY Post “story” reeks of desperation and stupidity.

So disgusting to me how some American journalists gleefully spread Russian disinformation.

by Anonymousreply 17410/14/2020

PENNSYLVANIA Biden 49% (+6) Trump 43% Jorgensen 1% RMG Research/




, LV 10/7-12

by Anonymousreply 17510/14/2020

NORTH CAROLINA Biden 48% (+2) Trump 46% Jorgensen 2% . #NCsen: Cunningham (D) 46% (+2) Tillis (R-inc) 44%



by Anonymousreply 17610/14/2020

GEORGIA Biden 48% (+2) Trump 46%




, LV, 10/8-12

by Anonymousreply 17710/14/2020

MICHIGAN Biden 48% (+9) Trump 39% EPIC-MRA, LV, 10/8-12

by Anonymousreply 17810/14/2020



Poll, Among Orthodox Jews: Trump 83% (+70) Biden 13%

by Anonymousreply 17910/14/2020

The NYPost is a Rupert Murdoch right-wing propaganda outfit. It's amazing how often a Nazi friendly paper like that get posted on DL.

by Anonymousreply 18010/14/2020

They get posted because it’s one of the few mainstream sites with no paywall, link previews that work well and isn’t blocked by Muriel for some godforsaken reason.

by Anonymousreply 18110/14/2020

Latest Nevada polls are worrying. Also I would like PA polls to be less close, we need a bigger lead in that very important state. No room for error there, it all hinges on PA this year.

by Anonymousreply 18210/14/2020

Yes re NV. Weighted average is 6.4 but 10/11 YouGov (538 grade B) says it's 4.

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by Anonymousreply 18310/14/2020

We need to get the Reid Machine going in Nevada. It’s too close

by Anonymousreply 18410/14/2020

R183, the only YouGov poll I see at your link (added Oct. 11) has Biden up 6, not 4 (same as a Siena poll from right before). Am I missing something?

by Anonymousreply 18510/14/2020

🚨Another post-scandal poll of NORTH CAROLINA form @UpshotNYT (change from 9/11-16):

Trump 42 (-2) Biden 46 (+1)

Senate Tillis (R-inc) 37 (-) Cunningham (D) 41 (-1)

Cunningham fav/unfav: 40/42 Tillis fav/unfav: 43/44

(LVs, Oct 9-13)

by Anonymousreply 18610/14/2020

Texas surpassed 1 million votes on its first day of early voting and the state hasn't even finished counting the first day's numbers.

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by Anonymousreply 18710/14/2020


The NY Post piece bases their entire story on alleged emails given to them by Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani.

Steve Bannon was just arrested for fraud. Rudy Giuliani tried extorting the Ukranian Government.

Anyone can create fake emails.


by Anonymousreply 18810/14/2020

POLITICO's Kyle Cheney:

The 'smoking gun' email in the NY Post story — even if it is authentic, given the massive red flags — doesn't actually say what the story says it does.

(Even) stipulating that the suspect email is real, there's literally nothing in it that says Joe Biden met with a Burisma adviser.

"The opportunity to meet," may just as easily have meant Hunter promised a meeting in the future that may never have occurred.

Lastly, if such a meeting occurred, it should be pretty easy to pinpoint with accuracy when and where, which would seem an important part of reporting a story like this before blasting out the innuendo — especially given the suspect actors involved.

by Anonymousreply 18910/14/2020

I watched a podcast this morning where Nate Silver said Trafalgar Group has a predictable +6 Trump lean in their polls. That seems about right considering Trafalgar is about the only pollster to give Trump a lead in Florida.

by Anonymousreply 19010/14/2020

Oh they're trying another "but her emails" thing. I bet the Times puts this one the front page tomorrow, thinking it'll drag Biden down. I don't think it will - no one gives a shit and corona numbers are skyrocketing.

by Anonymousreply 19110/14/2020

The NY Times is horrible

by Anonymousreply 19210/14/2020

The Coney Barrett confirmation process is the top story, not some fake emails Giuliani had Russians create. If the Times runs with this, I'm cancelling immediately. Such silly nonsense.

by Anonymousreply 19310/14/2020

If it's on the Times' front page tomorrow, the angle will be the pathetic desperation of Rudy Giuliani and crew. Nobody outside the right-wing bubble is giving this any credence.

by Anonymousreply 19410/14/2020

Giuliani is a joke. He has no credibility. If the Times tries to both-sides this, I'm cancelling.

by Anonymousreply 19510/14/2020

Buy some campaign merchandise. Make a donation. Show Giuliani and Murdoch that this BS doesn't work.

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by Anonymousreply 19610/14/2020

If there was any smoking gun in terms of Hunter and Ukraine, William The Terrible Barr would’ve found it, indicted the entire Biden family and had Joe and Hunter doing a perp walk on October 1st before their arraignment.

by Anonymousreply 19710/14/2020

Giuliani's working with the Russians. Surely there's a crime there. I guess the next AG will look into it! Maybe he'll spend the rest of his life in prison.

by Anonymousreply 19810/14/2020

If Biden wins, the whole Trump gang is going to die of COVID-19 and their corpses will mysteriously go missing.

by Anonymousreply 19910/14/2020

The legitimate media, outlets less sclerotic and clueless than the Times, knows this is bullshit.

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by Anonymousreply 20010/14/2020

Vox knows it's bullshit.

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by Anonymousreply 20110/14/2020

Twitter has blocked users from tweeting the New York Post story link and from sending the link via direct message to other users.

by Anonymousreply 20210/14/2020

I guess this is going to be a daily inflow of disinformation for the next 20 days. Ugh.

by Anonymousreply 20310/14/2020

Facebook has reduced the reach of a New York Post story that makes disputed claims about Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, pending a fact-check review. “While I will intentionally not link to the New York Post, I want be clear that this story is eligible to be fact checked by Facebook’s third-party fact checking partners. In the meantime, we are reducing its distribution on our platform,” tweeted Facebook policy communications manager Andy Stone.

by Anonymousreply 20410/14/2020

Well, well, well......Now we are talking!!!!!

Quinnipiac University, OCT 8-12, 2020


Biden 51%, Trump 44%

Biden +7

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by Anonymousreply 20510/14/2020

Forget that rubbish Post story—new Quinnipiac poll has Biden leading by 7 in Georgia and Dem Ossof beating Repub Purdue by 6!!

by Anonymousreply 20610/14/2020

R205, sorry should have said. Thats for Georgia!!!!!

by Anonymousreply 20710/14/2020

R205 is Georgia results - just in case anyone thinks they're the national numbers.

by Anonymousreply 20810/14/2020


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by Anonymousreply 20910/14/2020

The stats in R207's link that grab me the most are: Warnock 41%, Collins 22%, Loeffler 20%

That means that Warnock is now running basically even with both Republicans combined, and if it goes to a runoff, he could win, especially if he scrapes up the (meager) Lieberman vote.

by Anonymousreply 21010/14/2020

Washington Post exclusive:

Videos show closed-door sessions of leading conservative activists: ‘Be not afraid of the accusations that you’re a voter suppressor’

By Robert O'Harrow Jr.

Oct. 14, 2020 at 8:06 a.m. PDT

As the presidential campaign entered its final stages, a fresh-faced Republican activist named Charlie Kirk stepped into the spotlight at a closed-door gathering of leading conservatives and shared his delight about an impact of the coronavirus pandemic: the disruption of America’s universities. So many campuses had closed, he said, that up to a half-million left-leaning students probably would not vote.

“So, please keep the campuses closed,” Kirk, 26, said in August as the audience cheered, according to video of the event obtained by The Washington Post. “Like, it’s a great thing.”

The gathering in Northern Virginia was organized by the Council for National Policy, a little-known group that has served for decades as a hub for a nationwide network of conservative activists and the donors who support them. Members include Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, and Leonard Leo, an outside adviser to President Trump who has helped raise hundreds of millions of dollars from undisclosed donors to support conservative causes and the nominations of conservative federal judges.

Videos provided to The Post — covering dozens of hours of CNP meetings over three days in February and three in August — offer an inside view of participants’ obsessions and fears at a pivotal moment in the conservative movement. The videos, recorded by CNP to share with its members, show influential activists discussing election tactics, amplifying conspiracy theories and describing much of America in dark and apocalyptic terms.

“This is a spiritual battle we are in. This is good versus evil,” CNP’s executive committee president, Bill Walton, said on Aug. 21, addressing attendees at the Ritz-Carlton in Pentagon City. “We have to do everything we can to win.”

Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch, told attendees that same day that the left is “war-gaming” a plan to delay the election tally until Jan. 20, 2021, and enable House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to become acting president. “This is kind of like crazy talk” among political people, Fitton said. But he added: “This is not an insignificant concern.”


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by Anonymousreply 21110/14/2020

Expressing concern about voter fraud and disenfranchisement, Fitton called on the audience to find a way to prevent mail-in ballots from being sent to voters. “We need to stop those ballots from going out, and I want the lawyers here to tell us what to do,” said Fitton, whose organization is a tax-exempt charity. “But this is a crisis that we’re not prepared for. I mean, our side is not prepared for.”

In an interview with The Post, Fitton elaborated on his remarks. “The left has war-gamed this out,” Fitton said. “And it could cause civil war.”

Brent Bozell, a CNP executive committee member and founder of the Media Research Center, another tax-exempt charity, told attendees at one of the August sessions that he believes the left plans to “steal this election.”

“And if they get away with that, what happens?” he said. “Democracy is finished because they usher in totalitarianism.”

Bozell did not respond to messages seeking comment.

At the February meetings, attendees discussed plans for seeking an advantage in the upcoming vote. Two said the right will begin “ballot harvesting,” a controversial technique that involves the collection and delivery of sealed absentee ballots from churches and other institutions.

At the time of the meeting, Trump, his campaign officials and other Republicans were blasting the practice as an abuse by Democrats. “GET RID OF BALLOT HARVESTING, IT IS RAMPANT WITH FRAUD,” Trump tweeted this spring.

But Ralph Reed, chairman of the nonprofit Faith & Freedom Coalition, told the CNP audience that conservatives are embracing the technique this year.

“And so our organization is going to be harvesting ballots in churches,” he said. “We’re going to be specifically going in not only to White evangelical churches, but into Hispanic and Asian churches, and collecting those ballots.”

Reed did not respond to requests for comment.

J. Christian Adams, a former Justice Department official and the president of the Public Interest Legal Foundation, a charity, described mail-in voting as “the number one left-wing agenda.”

Adams urged the activists not to worry about the criticism that might come their way. “Be not afraid of the accusations that you’re a voter suppressor, you’re a racist and so forth,” Adams said.

In response to questions, Adams wrote in an email: “I stand by what I said because it is accurate.”

The partisan commentary and election-related discussions captured on the videos involved members of an array of nonprofit organizations, including tax-exempt charities. In exchange for the right to accept tax-exempt donations, charities are prohibited from actively supporting political candidates or working in coordination on candidates’ behalf.

Such laws are rarely enforced, in part because of murkiness about what constitutes a violation, and because of the complex interactions between some charities and nonprofits known as “social welfare” groups, tax specialists said. Social welfare groups are permitted to engage in lobbying and advocacy but must devote less than half of their resources to political activity. An individual may serve as a leader of both a charity and an affiliated social welfare group.

Some of the sessions at the CNP conferences are designated as run by CNP Action, a social welfare affiliate that shares leaders with CNP.

Two tax law specialists who viewed hours of video at The Post’s request said some of the remarks and planning on the videos could be improper for the groups that are registered with the IRS as charities.

“What was jarring was that it was pretty clear to any reasonable observer that the entire purpose of the panel was to help the Republican Party win in November, up and down the ticket,” said Roger Colinvaux, director of law and public policy at Catholic University’s law school, referring to a panel about health care.


by Anonymousreply 21210/14/2020

Marcus Owens, a lawyer who led the Exempt Organizations Division at the IRS from 1990 to 2000, told The Post that participants’ comments on the videos raise potential issues of compliance with election laws and charity rules. “I’ve never seen anything like it on videotape and live,” Owens said, referring to the overt partisan coordination among the nonprofit leaders. “It’s almost like a movie.”

A spokesman for Kirk said he was there representing himself, not in his capacity as the leader of Turning Point USA, a prominent conservative youth organization based in Phoenix.

In an interview, Bob McEwen, CNP’s executive director, said the Washington-based organization complies with IRS regulations and does not itself “do anything.”

“CNP doesn’t do ad campaigns. It doesn’t do brochures. It is a meeting of leaders,” said McEwen, who is also president of CNP Action, the related social welfare group. “Anything that’s done is done by the membership, not by the Council for National Policy.”

The sessions are closed to the public, and participants are told not to talk to the media about the group or its proceedings. “It absolutely could be open to the media, except that the media is known to be left, and then creates a distorted vision of their conversations,” McEwen said.

The Council for National Policy was launched during the Reagan administration by figures in the religious right to bring more focus and force to conservative advocacy.

It has attracted conservative luminaries and front-line activists from across the country, according to internal directories obtained by The Post. In the years leading up to Trump’s election, members included Stephen K. Bannon and Kellyanne Conway. The videos make clear that CNP maintains strong links to the White House.

Some participants spoke of a CNP-associated delegation that meets weekly with White House officials. They said the group, the Conservative Action Project, has helped to choose loyalists to run federal agencies and coordinate outside messages with nonprofit organizations to support administration policies and leaders.

“It’s kind of this little secretive huddle that meets every Wednesday morning,” Paul Teller, a Trump deputy and director of strategic initiatives for Vice President Pence, told the audience in August.

In February, during three days of meetings in Southern California, a CNP member named Rachel Bovard described the Conservative Action Project’s influence in helping the Trump administration select political appointees for the executive branch. She said the Conservative Action Project coordinated closely on these and other efforts with CNP members and the Conservative Partnership Institute, a tax-exempt charity run by former senator and tea party leader Jim DeMint of South Carolina.

“We work very closely — CAP does and then we at CPI also — with the Office of Presidential Personnel at the White House to try and get good conservatives in the positions because we see what happens when we don’t vet these people,” she said.

Bovard cited as examples two figures who testified against Trump last year in the House impeachment hearings: Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, former director for European affairs at the National Security Council, and Marie Yovanovitch, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.

“All these people that led the impeachment against President Trump shouldn’t have been there in the first place,” Bovard told the CNP audience. “We want to prevent that from happening.”

In addition, Bovard described Ginni Thomas as a crucial link to the White House. “She is one of the most powerful and fierce women in Washington,” Bovard said. “She is really the tip of the spear in these efforts.”

Bovard and Thomas did not respond to requests for comment.


by Anonymousreply 21310/14/2020

A White House spokesman said Teller declined to comment.

In another February session, Kelly Shackelford was introduced as CNP vice president, chairman of CNP Action and leader of the First Liberty Institute, another organization registered as a tax-exempt charity.

He bragged about extensive behind-the-scenes coordination by his group and other nonprofit organizations to influence the White House selection of federal judges.

“Some of us literally opened a whole operation on judicial nominations and vetting,” he said. “We poured millions of dollars into this to make sure the president has good information, he picks the best judges.”

Shackelford said he is among the nonprofit leaders now coordinating with the White House to support the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to fill the seat previously held by Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

In an interview, Shackelford said he is focused on educating Americans and providing information that will help the White House choose judges who interpret the Constitution in a literal way.

Speakers at the August conference touched on many of the cultural issues absorbing conservatives today — sometimes with more edge and heat than they do in their typical public remarks.

In one of the sessions, author and former professor Carol Swain, speaking on a panel about race relations, said that “White people have lost their voice in America.”

She likened the Black Lives Matter movement to the Ku Klux Klan. “The Democratic Party is using Black Lives Matter and antifa the same way they used the KKK,” said Swain, who is Black. “They created the KKK. It was their terrorist wing to terrorize everyone.”

In response to questions, Swain stood by her remarks.

Some participants bridled at pandemic restrictions — and the video showed that many did not wear masks.

“You will need to wear masks in the public part of the hotel but not here,” Walton, the CNP president, announced to applause.

“Yeah,” Walton said. “That’s great!”

A state mandate in Virginia generally requires masks at indoor public settings.

On Aug. 21, in a rare CNP open session, Trump addressed the audience, which included acting homeland security secretary Chad Wolf. Later that day, Teller, the White House deputy, gave a high-spirited shout-out from the front of a conference room to Wolf’s team.

“I don’t know if you got to know Secretary Wolf’s team, sitting in the corner, they’re just a bunch of wingers. That’s like the most conservative table in the entire room, is Secretary Wolf’s team,” Teller gushed. “Great, great, great secretary.”

In contrast to his ebullience, some speakers at the meeting raised doubts about Trump’s prospects in November.

Nancy Schulze, a CNP member and co-chair of the Congressional Prayer Caucus Wives Council, said the lack of a clear health-care plan from Trump poses a “huge vulnerability” for the president.

“If we don’t get this right in the next 75 days, there is a question as to whether we’re going to prevail at all within the presidential campaign, or the House or the Senate,” she said.

Others described an elaborate social media and advertising campaign by a collection of nonprofits — some of them tax-exempt charities — to convince voters this fall that a Republican free-market approach to health care would offer more choices.

Organizers showed ads that feature doctors in white lab coats with stethoscopes. They told the CNP audience that market research found that featuring doctors engenders trust among voters.

“And so I remind people that what we’re trying to do is put on theater here,” said Alfredo Ortiz, president of Job Creators Network and chief executive of its foundation. “It’s the stage. It’s the script and the actors.”

Ortiz did not respond to requests for comment.

Among those involved are former House speaker Newt Gingrich and former health and human services secretary Tom Price. Organizers are asking allies in Congress to introduce a resolution that echoes the policy themes, such as the notion of personalized health care, Price told the crowd.


by Anonymousreply 21410/14/2020

“It’s urgent, but it’s not too late,” Price said.

by Anonymousreply 21510/14/2020

[quote]So many campuses had closed, he said, that up to a half-million left-leaning students probably would not vote.

How does he figure? These students would either have gotten a ballot by mail or registered to vote wherever they're living—like everyone else.

The paranoiac ratfuckers get worse with every passing generation, but they also get stupider.

by Anonymousreply 21610/14/2020

Early voting video from the Washington Post today.

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by Anonymousreply 21710/14/2020

Teenagers are volunteering as poll workers everywhere. That gives me hope.

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by Anonymousreply 21810/14/2020

ABC affiliate in north Texas.

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by Anonymousreply 21910/14/2020

R210, actually if we are to believe Quannipiac poll, Warnock can outright win in first round with no need for run off as he is now polling above 50%. does Ossoff. I am eager to see more polls as this sounds astounding.

by Anonymousreply 22010/14/2020

Please don’t forget to put your ballot in the privacy envelope before putting it in the mailing envelope. Naked ballots are thrown out in Pennsylvania!

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by Anonymousreply 22110/14/2020

Naked ballots get tossed in Pennsylvania with no chance to redo your ballot. Don’t forget the privacy envelope in PA!

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by Anonymousreply 22210/14/2020

19 long days

by Anonymousreply 22310/14/2020

Today in PA, I learned that I WAS SENT AN INCORRECT BALLOT!!!


This after I'd already voted and taken it to the elections office.

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by Anonymousreply 22410/14/2020

R224, are you able to sort it out?

by Anonymousreply 22510/14/2020

The more red states he wins the less likely Trump or the Court will change the outcome. He needs to win Ohio, Florida, Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina along with former blue states PA, WI and MI.

by Anonymousreply 22610/14/2020

Twenty days out, the Biden campaign has as much in its coffers as Turd is in debt.

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by Anonymousreply 22710/14/2020

[quote]@ JoeBiden going all out for Florida senior vote.

[quote]Burt Bacharach, 92, is headliner for Florida virtual rally for seniors on Thursday.

[quote]Campaign promise: Bacharach will perform “What the World Needs Now is Love," “Raindrops Keep Falling on My Head" & other classics. And tout Biden. - Anthony Mann

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by Anonymousreply 22810/14/2020

$383 million raised in September.

Thank you, Americans.

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by Anonymousreply 22910/14/2020

People are so done with Trump.

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by Anonymousreply 23010/14/2020

[quote]Naked ballots get tossed in Pennsylvania with no chance to redo your ballot. Don’t forget the privacy envelope in PA!

They counted the naked ballots in Pennsylvania previously but since mail in voting became popular because of COVID guess who decided to complain.

[quote]President Donald Trump's campaign, which challenged the "naked ballots" in a lawsuit along with the Republican National Committee, argued that requiring the secrecy envelopes with submitted ballots was crucial to preventing voter fraud, even though they did not produce evidence of fraud while litigating the case, according to The Guardian.

Your ballot is filled out and in a sealed envelope but because you didn't put it in a SECOND envelope inside the same envelope your vote means nothing.

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by Anonymousreply 23110/14/2020

Iowa. Bastards. They can still vote, however. It’s just that they won’t get absentee ballots.

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by Anonymousreply 23210/14/2020

R225 Apparently I'll be receiving a new ballot, but now I fear that GOP will use that to say I've "voted twice" and toss them all out.

by Anonymousreply 23310/15/2020

So looks like Ohio is a loss? :(

by Anonymousreply 23410/15/2020

Polls this week show Biden up by one in Ohio. So, a statistical tie.

by Anonymousreply 23510/15/2020

Florida Poll: Biden 47% (+7) Trump 40% Clearview Research (LV, 10/7-10/12 )

by Anonymousreply 23610/15/2020

North Carolina Presidential Polling: Biden (D) 51% Trump (R): 46% Civiqs / October 14, 2020 / n=1211 / Online

by Anonymousreply 23710/15/2020

I have a feeling my shit list of red states will be greatly reduced.

by Anonymousreply 23810/15/2020

We’ll always proudly be #1 on that list.

by Anonymousreply 23910/15/2020

The campaign has very decent funding now (though it could always use more). I hope they saturate TV, social media, radio, etc. with ads. And set up a GOTV apparatus in the swing states.

by Anonymousreply 24010/15/2020

Iowa and Ohio are gone for a generation or so. He can still win though.

by Anonymousreply 24110/15/2020

Every time a Republican judge rules against the Democrats, they are essentially admitting Republicans can no longer win the presidency without suppressing the Democrat vote.

by Anonymousreply 24210/15/2020

Early voting is going well. However:

[quote] Still, one point of uncertainty for Democrats is the relatively low turnout among young voters so far. In Georgia, for instance, less than 9 percent of those who turned out Monday were between the ages of 18 and 29, according to data from the office of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

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by Anonymousreply 24310/15/2020

Fuck young voters. We’ve got seniors; we don’t need them.

by Anonymousreply 24410/15/2020

Lindsey Graham at the ACB hearing this morning: "Y'all have a good chance of winning the White House."

Klobuchar: "Thank you for acknowledging that."

Graham: "Yeah. I think it's true."

by Anonymousreply 24510/15/2020

Devious Miz Lindz is just trying to lull us into a false sense of complacency, as well as scrounge up more money for his desperate campaign.

by Anonymousreply 24610/15/2020

Kamala is canceling her campaign travel schedule through Sunday after two campaign staffers, including her communications director Liz Allen, tested positive for COVID-19.

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by Anonymousreply 24710/15/2020

Sooooo, I was watching "Morning Joe" this morning, and they seemed very concerned that trump's people have been hitting the ground and registering WAY WAY WAY more people than the Biden campaign in Pennsylvania. The look on their face was not good.

by Anonymousreply 24810/15/2020

Biden Campaign Manager Jen O'Malley Dillon yesterday:

Early voting is already underway in many states. Millions of voters have already cast their ballots. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer.

by Anonymousreply 24910/15/2020

I think the campaign needs to pour money into registering voters in PA's cities. More more more.

by Anonymousreply 25010/15/2020

Are they really not focusing on PA?

by Anonymousreply 25110/15/2020

Two weeks ago.

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by Anonymousreply 25210/15/2020

Of course they’re focusing on PA. I have a feeling that this is not going to be a close election at all. These polls would have to be off by a tremendous number. Early voting in Texas started Tuesday. I drove by my polling place and was stunned at the crowd. And they were not all white people, as I’m used to seeing.

by Anonymousreply 25310/15/2020

Jen O'Malley Dillon may be exaggerating a bit to get us to vote and donate but I am going to act like it's al true.

Anybody from PA here who can say what it's like there?

by Anonymousreply 25410/15/2020

Im registered independent in PA. All I know is my mailbox today was stuffed with fliers for republican candidates and not a single Biden.

by Anonymousreply 25510/15/2020

Everything coming out PA is worrisome. Its very tight there. If we lose PA, we MUST take AZ and flip one more Trump state.

by Anonymousreply 25610/15/2020

Have there been canvassing and phone banking for PA?

by Anonymousreply 25710/15/2020

How many of these new registered Republicans in PA are first-time voters, and how many are 2016 Trump voters who were unaffiliated (or even registered D) then?

by Anonymousreply 25810/15/2020

[QUOTE] Everything coming out PA is worrisome.

His RCP lead there is 7 points. More importantly, he’s hitting 49-50 in every poll, something Trump can’t do (nor could Hillary in 2016). What’s coming out of PA that’s so worrisome?

by Anonymousreply 25910/15/2020

“The campaign has very decent funding now (though it could always use more). I hope they saturate TV, social media, radio, etc. with ads. And set up a GOTV apparatus in the swing states.“

There is no way they can spend $438 million in two weeks and a half, plus cash is still pouring in

by Anonymousreply 26010/15/2020

[quote] Anybody from PA here who can say what it's like there?

See my post at R40. It's still true.

by Anonymousreply 26110/15/2020

R260, I'm hoping that their experts can figure out how to spend it effectively. And save some for the lawsuits.

by Anonymousreply 26210/15/2020

[quote]What’s coming out of PA that’s so worrisome?

That's what I'm wondering.

People don't need to worry about Pittsburgh, Philadelphia & the surrounding areas or even Centre County. The rest is a shit hole of Deplorables although sometimes Erie comes through.

The good thing is that 3/4ths of the votes returned already have been Democratic. That's 76 percent of the votes.

Also, Biden is from Scranton and ...

Hillary lost PA by only 46,000 votes. I'm sorry, I know people hate to hear it (since they hated Hillary,) but PA is one of those states where (since I grew up there) I can say that misogyny probably played a part in that.

I don't think people really have to worry about Pennsylvania. That's not me saying, don't vote as if your life doesn't depends on it, that's me saying the major cities where people actually live will help carry it back into blue.

by Anonymousreply 26310/15/2020

I want to move to PA now, to do my part to secure it as a blue state.

by Anonymousreply 26410/15/2020

[QUOTE] There is no way they can spend $438 million in two weeks and a half, plus cash is still pouring in

I don’t know why they’re still asking for money. I guess whatever’s left can be transferred to the 2024 campaign? But wouldn’t that only work if Joe is the nominee again?

by Anonymousreply 26510/15/2020

Stay wary, people. Don't get complacent because of the good poll and fundraising numbers. Do your part.

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by Anonymousreply 26610/15/2020

R265, are they allowed to give to down-balot campaigns?

by Anonymousreply 26710/15/2020


by Anonymousreply 26810/15/2020

[QUOTE] are they allowed to give to down-ballot campaigns?

They all have plenty of money too. Unless you’re talking 2022 midterms? Cause from sea to shining sea, all I see are Democrats vastly outraising their Republican opponents this cycle.

by Anonymousreply 26910/15/2020

R269, maybe state representatives' campaigns? Texas is a huge deal, since they're redistricting soon.

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by Anonymousreply 27010/15/2020

R263 is right, but remember that the shithole of deplorables doesn’t even come close in numbers to the non-deplorables.

by Anonymousreply 27110/15/2020

[quote]Everything coming out PA is worrisome.

It's not. Per 538, Biden has been up 5 to 7 points on average for weeks now, and that has not changed. Per RCP, Biden has been steadily climbing since the end of September and is 7 points ahead.

I even checked the news to see if there might be something you could be referring to and there isn't. Did you really just make that up?

by Anonymousreply 27210/15/2020

Is Texas possible?

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by Anonymousreply 27310/15/2020

Maybe not this election but it's close.

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by Anonymousreply 27410/15/2020

I don't really care about deplorable land in PA. Tell me what's going on in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. If those folks show up, then it doesn't matter what's happening in the other parts because of the numbers.

by Anonymousreply 27510/15/2020

Trump won Pennsylvania (and the election) by the skin of his teeth. 46,000 votes like someone said earlier. In fact there were about 78,000 votes total between the three states in the thread title that decided the election—a national disgrace for numerous reasons, frankly. Some of you act like a red tide of 5-10 points carried Trump to victory when that’s far from the truth.

We nominated Joe specifically to secure those votes in these states, and if you think Joe can’t get an extra 46,000 ballots in Pennsylvania then you’ve got another thing coming. Relax, man. It’s Biden time. 😎

by Anonymousreply 27610/15/2020

The thing worrying some people about PA is the report of increased Republican registrations outpacing Democratic. Nobody has answered my question in R258 and I haven't found info online.

In other news, Miz Lindz has set a new record for Republican fundraising after her plaintive pleas for $$$ on Fox news! Too bad Harrison raised even more.

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by Anonymousreply 27710/15/2020

Just happened to answer that in another thread, R277. Here ya go:

[quote]In Pennsylvania, a state that before 2016 hadn't selected a GOP presidential candidate since 1988, Democrats' voter registration edge has fallen by nearly 200,000, but they still hold an advantage of about 724,000 over the GOP. If only voters deemed active are counted, the margin shrinks to about 550,000. Some 7,500 more Democrats than Republicans have switched to a new party this year. To some extent, the registration changes reflect regional shifts that took place in the 2016 election.

More details at the link.

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by Anonymousreply 27810/15/2020

Democrats should not have fallen asleep on registering new voters

by Anonymousreply 27910/15/2020

Question: Clearly the voter turnout for both mail in and in person early voting favors Democrats overwhelmingly. From what I've read, Republicans are more likely to vote in person on Election Day. Would it therefore be better for the Dems if the weather in the swing states is bad on Nov.3, lowering overall turnout on that day? Usually Dems want the biggest turnout possible, but with the new normal of early voting favoring Dems, does this change, i.e.would it be timely for a hurricane or other bad weather events to occur this time?

by Anonymousreply 28010/15/2020

R280 bad weather tends to discourage Dems more, but if 99% of Dems already voted, then of course it might not matter much.

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by Anonymousreply 28110/15/2020

R280 it’s funny you mention that because my late grandmother (mother’s side, staunch Dem) always said historically that the Republicans hoped for bad weather on Election Day because (a racist statement they would say that I won’t repeat here).

And it was actually bad weather in Philly in 2016, and I remember that day thinking about my Grandmother and being a little but not too worried. But then of course we know what happened — and it’s true the margins didn’t run nearly high enough in Philly.

But you make a good point now that paradigm might be totally flipped this election cycle. Which is so weird.

by Anonymousreply 28210/15/2020

Yes it seems intuitively that we should be hoping for bad weather this time around, unlike in the past, given the new voting patterns. But I wanted to confirm this before I start doing my rain dance.

by Anonymousreply 28310/15/2020

No, we should not be hoping for bad weather, for christ sake. There are still tens of millions of Biden supporters who don’t have access to early voting and have grown skeptical of mail in ballot usage, like me. We need high turnout in every aspect. We outnumber them. High turnout on Election Day can never be bad for us.

by Anonymousreply 28410/15/2020

Biden has raised an enormous amount of cash, but I don't see signs of him spending it on anything other than ads. Ads aren't going to win us the election. Why isn't he using that money to get voters to the polls and to knock on doors? We need buses driving voters to the polls in droves, not more TV ads.

by Anonymousreply 28510/15/2020

If Biden loses PA and thus the electoral college, chances are he'll do so with a majority of the popular vote by 5-10% (the way things are going now). That would really underline how whacked our electoral system is.

by Anonymousreply 28610/15/2020

Theres no rational basis for your comment r284, other than your own personal situation and your imagination.. Every crucial swing state has access to mail and/or early in person voting, and all the experts predict a "red wave" on Election day that potentially counteracts the Dems early advantage, like the article below.

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by Anonymousreply 28710/15/2020

[quote] R211: Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch, told attendees that same day that the left is “war-gaming” a plan to delay the election tally until Jan. 20, 2021, and enable House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to become acting president.

I don’t think anything like this will happen; however, about the process: To my knowledge, there is no process for someone be become an “acting President”, aside from the 25th Amendment and that doesn’t apply, here. If Nancy were to be sworn in as President in January, then she gets four years, unless impeached. She could do something fancy like appoint Biden her VP, if Congress agrees, and then resign, elevating him to the Presidency, but that’s it. If the election results are somehow settled after she is sworn in, it’s too late for it to matter. Especially if the results went to a Trump victory. She would never cede the Presidency to Trump.

by Anonymousreply 28810/15/2020

Jennifer Rubin - These states tell us the GOP is in deep trouble

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by Anonymousreply 28910/15/2020

Washington Post


Jennifer Rubin

Oct. 15, 2020 at 7:00 a.m. PDT

I cannot recall the last time Georgia and South Carolina were both in play for Democrats. A Democratic president last won South Carolina in 1976; the last Democratic senator was elected there in 1998. A Democratic president, Southerner Bill Clinton, last won Georgia in 1992, and its last Democratic senator won a regular election in 1996. President Trump won Georgia by about 5 points in 2016 and South Carolina by about 14 points; this year, he is down 1.2 points in Georgia and leads by only about 7 points in South Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight.

The South Carolina Senate race is effectively a dead heat; the Democrat leads in the Georgia special election Senate race by almost 8 points (though that’s far shy of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff), while the other Senate race is within the margin of error.

It is stunning for those who have followed politics over the past few decades to think a Democratic president could win Georgia and three Democrats could be elected to the Senate from two deep-red states. That Georgia is even competitive presents a gobsmacking problem for Trump given that former vice president Joe Biden does not need it to win the presidency, nor does the Democratic Party need any of those three seats to win the Senate majority.

We are talking about these states and some other red states because Biden is comfortably ahead in the states he really does need to win (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). Biden is narrowly ahead (within the margin of error) in Iowa, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. Democratic Senate candidates have small leads in the North Carolina and Iowa races and a bigger one in the Arizona race.

In short, the states Biden must win are safely in his column, and the next rungs of competitive states are all on the Republicans’ side of the field; should Trump lose any of these states, it will portend a Democratic blowout in the presidential race and a large pickup in the Senate.

Even more attractive for Democrats, Georgia’s and South Carolina’s polls close at 7 p.m. on Election Day, and polls close at 7:30 pm. in North Carolina. Polls in part of Florida will close at 7 p.m., and the rest at 8 p.m. If the races in the Carolinas, Florida and Georgia are even close early in the night, it will give us a clue as to just how bad things might get for Trump.

If the only states that shift to Biden from 2016 are Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Biden still wins 278 electoral votes. Throw in Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina and Arizona, and his total bulges to 367. And there are still more competitive states Biden could pick up (e.g., Iowa and Texas).

Several caveats bear repeating. First, it is highly unlikely Biden will win all the states that are competitive, but it is likely he will win some of those beyond the three critical Blue Wall states. The question is fast becoming just how big a win Biden gets. Second, if East Coast states get called early in the evening (a big if), Republicans in the Midwest and West might not bother turning out. Think of it as an electoral domino effect falling east to west. Third, Republican Senate incumbents are precisely where they do not want to be: afraid to lose their core base but alienated from many voters who cast ballots for Republicans in 2016. Hanging tightly to Trump has made them just about as unpopular as he is. It was not as though they weren’t warned.

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by Anonymousreply 29010/15/2020

Any info on what's going on with the campaign on the ground in PA?

by Anonymousreply 29110/15/2020

The problem with PA polling is that none are rated about a B/C (Morning Consult).

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by Anonymousreply 29210/15/2020

[QUOTE] Every crucial swing state has access to mail and/or early in person voting, and all the experts predict a "red wave" on Election day that potentially counteracts the Dems early advantage, like the article below.

Key word: potentially. They don’t know shit. There will also be a blue wave on Election Day. It’s silly to think that every single Democrat is casting a mail in ballot or voting early. Our advantage there is huge, but it still means that millions of Dem voters are waiting until Election Day.

by Anonymousreply 29310/15/2020

Jennifer Rubin on Biden in 2020 sounds like Jennifer Rubin on Romney in 2012. Ever the optimist.

by Anonymousreply 29410/15/2020

I cast my vote already in Massachusetts. I think there is a way to trace my mailed-in ballot, but I haven’t tried it yet, to see that it is received and counted. If so, that is reassuring.

by Anonymousreply 29510/15/2020

r293 lacks critical thinking skills and argues like a Republican. It would be absolutely ridiculous to think or state that that "every single Democrat is casting a mail in ballot or voting early" or to deny that "millions of Dem voters are waiting until Election Day" and of course no one here has, yet that is what he has foolishly formed an argument against rather than what has clearly been stated: It appears based on all estimates that significantly more Republicans will be voting on election day than Democrats. Of course millions of Dems will vote on election day, but if millions MORE REPUBLICANS THAN DEMS vote on election day, how will that work out for us? Or are your math skills just as poor?

by Anonymousreply 29610/15/2020

[quote] The problem with PA polling is that none are rated about a B/C (Morning Consult).

Siena College/New York Times, rated A+, has Biden +7 from 9/30-10/2, and Quinnipiac, rated B+, has Biden +13 from 10/1-10/5.

by Anonymousreply 29710/15/2020

[QUOTE] Of course millions of Dems will vote on election day, but if millions MORE REPUBLICANS THAN DEMS vote on election day, how will that work out for us?

It’s going to work out just fine when combined with mail in ballots and early voting. That’s why we need high Dem turnout on Election Day. Don’t pray for bad weather and try to rig the game, my man—it could backfire on us. Let’s hope for a level playing field so we can beat them fair and square. We’ve got the numbers. Ain’t nothing to it but to do it, R296.

by Anonymousreply 29810/15/2020

Those scary Pennsylvania registration numbers have already been explained, or even debunked if you prefer... some of those counties in Southwest Pennsylvania have become more Republican over the past decade, so voters have been switching their registration to vote in the Republican primary which determines the outcome more and more in those conservative areas. In other words, those voters are already baked into the polls as largely Republican voters, it's not as though they've somehow been swayed by a Republican message away from voting for Democrats. Changing their registration was merely a matter of paperwork /housekeeping.

by Anonymousreply 29910/15/2020

R297, thank you! I totally didn't see the tab; my mistake.

by Anonymousreply 30010/15/2020

Not-so-great news from SC polling.

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by Anonymousreply 30110/15/2020

The GOP's Senate chances are collapsing

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by Anonymousreply 30210/15/2020

Quinnapiac is pretty much the outlier poll in every race.

by Anonymousreply 30310/15/2020

How is merely hoping bad weather depresses Republican election day turnout "rigging the game"? They haven't invented a weather machine yet.

In most swing states, early voting currently exceeds 20% of 2016 turnout. Estimates are that number will be 40% by Oct. 22 and 70% by Election Day, the great majority of which will have been cast by Dems. If that remaining 30% consists of significantly more Republicans than Democrats, then let it rain and let them all stay home. Dems win prez by a bigger margin and take the Senate!

by Anonymousreply 30410/15/2020

Drop the weather arguments. They're going to do what they're going to do. Bank votes as early as possible - now.

by Anonymousreply 30510/15/2020

[quote] If Biden loses PA and thus the electoral college, chances are he'll do so with a majority of the popular vote by 5-10%

That simply isn’t going to happen. It’s not possible. I think Biden will ultimately win PA, MI, and WI, but we won’t know that on election night. We will, however, know the results of FL on election night, and if Biden wins FL, Trump basically has no path to 270 electoral votes.

by Anonymousreply 30610/15/2020

Its all connected r305. Poster upthread insanely stated he wants good weather just so Dems like him who are "skeptical" of mail in ballots can vote in person, rather than sending in his ballot and banking it now.

by Anonymousreply 30710/15/2020

Yes, cause there’s no reason to be skeptical of mail in voting.

[QUOTE] Absentee ballot rejections this November are projected to reach historic levels, risking widespread disenfranchisement of minority voters and the credibility of election results, a USA TODAY, Columbia Journalism Investigations and PBS series FRONTLINE investigation found.

[QUOTE] At least 1.03 million absentee ballots could be tossed if half of the nation votes by mail. Discarded votes jump to 1.55 million if 75% of the country votes absentee. In the latter scenario, more than 185,000 votes could be lost in Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – states considered key to capturing the White House.

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by Anonymousreply 30810/15/2020

[QUOTE] These numbers are conservative and based on 2016 rejection rates, when fewer voters submitted absentee ballots. Record numbers of voters will be voting absentee for the first time in 2020, and voters new to vote-by-mail are at greater risk of making mistakes. If errors push the rejection rate up just 2%, about 2.15 million votes would be cast aside – roughly the population of New Mexico.

[QUOTE]The stakes could not be higher.

[QUOTE]Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania rejected about 60,000 votes in primaries earlier this year, said Amherst College law professor Lawrence Douglas, only a few thousand votes shy of President Donald Trump’s margin of victory in those states in 2016.

[QUOTE]“A result like this in November could cast doubt on who actually carried the key swing states, with the overall election hanging in the balance,” said Douglas, who added that such an outcome could trigger “a chaotic welter of lawsuits and clashing conspiracy theories.”

by Anonymousreply 30910/15/2020

PA burbs here. It's a sea of Biden lawn signs in the northwest suburbs, not that signs mean much. When I drive through Philadelphia there are giant signs on every other lamp post/electrical pole that say VOTE MAKE A PLAN- throughout the whole city, 4 signs per pole in all 4 directions. The amount of time and effort it took to mobilize and make this happen must have been huge. It's an obvious statement, but Biden/Harris need the minority voters in Philadelphia to show up and vote in Obama-sized numbers and it seems like a lot of effort and energy is being spent to make that happen. I hope it works

by Anonymousreply 31010/15/2020

Complete distortion. The entire premise of this article is ballot rejection, not fraud. As the article states, ballots are rejected due to errors made by the voter, and this unfairly affects minorities disproportionately due to lower overall education levels, language barriers etc. Sadly this poster is not skeptical of ballot integrity but of himself--that he cannot trust himself to fill out a simple ballot and follow instructions properly.

by Anonymousreply 31110/15/2020

[quote]all the experts predict a "red wave" on Election day that potentially counteracts the Dems early advantage

Not all the experts, that's hyperbole.

Something I keep thinking about is how Florida had so many Dem votes in 2016 before Election Day that it was statistically almost impossible for Trump to win, but he did. We know it's because Florida is rigged, just like it was in 2000, but of course no one in the government or media will say so.

This "Republicans vote on the day of and there will be a huge red wave" idea really favors the Repugs because it gives them cover for cheating. I'm not saying that the idea of a "red wave" isn't true, I'm just saying I'm skeptical after what happened in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 31210/15/2020

That's not insane, R307, not after all the work the Repugs and media have done to make people skeptical -- the USPS may not be able to process all the ballots, or maybe they'll end up in one of those fake ballot boxes the Repugs are putting up, or maybe something that isn't actually an error will be called an error by a poll worker who doesn't want to process the vote, who knows.

People have reasons to worry about the integrity of the vote. They've had reasons for years.

I'm sure you feel justified in your obsession over what this one guy said, but I think in general we shouldn't be screaming at Democrats for voting but not doing it in exactly the way you personally want them to.

by Anonymousreply 31310/15/2020

What you don't get is that supporting these unsound theories which you are repeating is exactly what Republicans want. Its not just about this one person, its about unnecessarily validating his skepticism so that many others buy into it. If you educate yourself as to how the process works and how and where to vote, you will mail or drop your ballot off in a trusted location, and do so in plenty of time to be delivered and processed. In many ways, mail voting is more secure and transparent. Many people will avoid voting by mail because of statements like yours and then not show up on election day due to weather, long lines, not feeling well, etc. An intention is not a vote! Instead of encouraging people to be skeptical because of Republican misinformation tactics,designed to create that exact skepticism, we should all be imploring those on our team to educate themselves about the process, vote now and bank early!

Also, the implication that I am obsessed with or "screaming" at anyone just because I am making a valid point on a message board designed for discussion and discourse only reflects your own rude and hysterical tendencies. You could easily make your point respectfully.

by Anonymousreply 31410/15/2020

[quote]As the article states, ballots are rejected due to errors made by the voter, and this unfairly affects minorities disproportionately due to lower overall education levels, language barriers etc.

Yeah. That's why. Uh huh.

by Anonymousreply 31510/15/2020

R311/R314 is an elitist shmuck. If I want to wait until Election Day and encourage other voters to do the same, that’s my Constitutional right. When your worship of mail in voting backfires and millions of ballots are rejected, the people like me who did it the old fashioned way might be the Democrats’ saving grace.

by Anonymousreply 31610/15/2020

Right now Democrats are dominating and overwhelming by mail and in-person (where voting has started). We also seem to be dominating in donations in many places. Let's just keep that up through Nov. 3. Get out the vote.

by Anonymousreply 31710/15/2020

I was neither hysterical nor disrespectful R314, and no, nothing I said in my one reply on the matter will cause people to not vote at all.

I maintain that your 7 (so far) insult-filled replies to this one person are indeed obsessive. In fact, you're starting to look like you're deliberately derailing the thread, calling everyone you disagree with a Republican.

And here's a tip: don't go around telling others to "educate yourself" when you don't know the difference between "its" and "it's."

by Anonymousreply 31810/15/2020

So weird that you would use the word elitist. What is elitist about voting by mail lol? I never ever said anyone shouldn't choose to vote on Election Day if they want to, and I'm glad that people are. What I said is that discouraging other people from voting by mail by spreading "skepticism" about the process, repeating unfounded misinformation tactics designed by Republicans to create that very skepticism results in the suppression of Democratic votes, especially by those who are not as highly motivated as yourself and might not be fully committed to making the effort to show up on Nov. 3rd. Your statements are actively helping Republicans achieve their goals and undermining your own. And again with name calling and insults. If you have a valid point you can make it respectfully, or is that also elitist?

by Anonymousreply 31910/15/2020

And to whomever just said that I've been calling people who disagree with me Republicans, among other falsehoods, if you can cite even one specific instance on this thread of my doing that, calling anyone a Republican for that or any other reason, I will apologize and not post here again. Rather than fixating on small grammatical oversights of apostrophes, you need to focus on your basic skills of reading, understanding, and basic truth.

by Anonymousreply 32010/15/2020

In the last several elections there has been about an 8% to 10% "crossover" vote where registered Dems vote Republican and vice versa. Much of that is surely due to people who have changed their affiliation but never bothered to do the paperwork.

As of October 9th, there are 4,168,900 (46.9%) Democrats and 3,451,514 (38.8%) Republicans registered. We have the advantage over them in numbers even if the media is saying the "gap is closing."

by Anonymousreply 32110/15/2020

Republicans continue to eat away at Democrats’ voter registration advantage in Pennsylvania

A year ago the Democrats held about 9.5% registration lead with more than 4 million registrants compared to 3.2 million Republicans. The Democratic lead as of October 5 is down to 8.1%, with almost 4.2 million Democrats and 3.5 million Republicans among the state’s 8.9 million registered voters.

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by Anonymousreply 32210/15/2020

[quote] As of October 9th, there are 4,168,900 (46.9%) Democrats and 3,451,514 (38.8%) Republicans registered. We have the advantage over them in numbers even if the media is saying the "gap is closing."


by Anonymousreply 32310/15/2020

In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?

2020 Aug 31-Sep 13


I: 40%


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by Anonymousreply 32410/15/2020

I recall after Alaska Republican Senator Murkowski lost her primary to a Tea Party Uber conservative, she ran as a write-in. There was a judicial ruling that ballots with incorrect spellings of her last name would be counted if it was clear for whom the ballot was cast. And she won, as a write-in!

Seems like rose days are past.

by Anonymousreply 32510/15/2020

R323, it was linked at R322, and since it was a quote you could have just Googled. Don't be lazy.

by Anonymousreply 32610/15/2020

[quote]Are they really not focusing on PA?

No, that is not and has not been happening AT ALL, but thanks for your CONCERN!

by Anonymousreply 32710/15/2020

Yes, R322, but we still have the advantage by a significant amount.

This is a lot like the "Trump is winning Latinos" misnomer: Trump's support has gone up significantly but the Latino demographic votes Democratic 2 to 1, even with the drop in support from HRC to Biden.

Dems still lead in registered voters by over 8% in PA. Articles trying to make it sound like the Repugs lead now are misleading.

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by Anonymousreply 32810/15/2020

Weird, R323, YOU linked to the article at R322 that you later demanded a link to. I guess you didn't actually read the article you linked.

by Anonymousreply 32910/15/2020

I live in a reliably Blue state, but even still, I voted because the Dems need up and coming talent in all the other positions. Also, Biden will benefit by a strong win in the popular vote. If he wins by a 10 million votes, even if the electoral college is close, it gives him a mandate to enact strong Democratic priorities. So, please don’t think your vote is meaningless if you live in a Blue state, it still counts!

And there will be a lot of work to do. Aside from the usual things, Biden and Congress will need to figure out what they need to do to prevent a similar idiot like Trump from ever taking office again, and make it easier to oust him. Then lots of laws to limit the use of temporary political hacks to positions that normally require Senate confirmation. Limiting the use of executive orders. Finally acting to limit or reverse Citizen’s United in a carefully crafted way that passes SCOYUS review.

Raise taxes on higher incomes. Raise the inheritance tax. Reduce military spending. See that State-based gerrymandering, if it happens, is tilted towards the Dems.

And yes, expand the SCOTUS to 15 members, then lower it to 11 by attrition. I say 11 rather than 9, because they’re overworked and need to be expanded, anyway.

And they need to prosecute Trump, or allow states to do so, in a way that is transparent and fair. We can’t let him off the hook just by virtue of his former position as would-be dictator.

Trump ought to start with a laundry list of fixing all the damage Trump has done.

by Anonymousreply 33010/15/2020

I've decided that many of you don't know how to be happy unless you're worried. FYI, that is no way to go through life.

by Anonymousreply 33110/15/2020

[quote]Democrats should not have fallen asleep on registering new voters

I am not so easily duped by such "news". Perhaps more Democrats were already registered and there are fewer left to sign up? In 2018, tons of new voters registered.

by Anonymousreply 33210/15/2020

This is my favorite Lincoln Project ad. So moving! I hope they run this on national TV.

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by Anonymousreply 33310/15/2020

New NPR/PBS NewsHour/Maris Poll:

Biden leads Trump 54% to 43% among likely voters.

"Notably, Biden is leading in this survey with white voters 51% to 47%. That is extraordinary. Trump won white voters in 2016 by 20 points, and no Democrat has won that high a share of white voters since Jimmy Carter in 1976, when the U.S. was far less racially diverse."

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by Anonymousreply 33410/15/2020

New polling today in CO, NC, VA @Civiqs/@dailykos:


Biden 54% (D+12) Trump 42%

Hickenlooper 53% (D+11) Gardner 42%


Biden 51% (D+5) Trump 46%

Cunningham 51% (D+6) Tillis 45%


Biden 55% (D+13) Trump 42%

Warner 54% (D+11) Gade 43%

LV 10/11-14

by Anonymousreply 33510/15/2020

18 more days of campaigning

by Anonymousreply 33610/15/2020

@TheNVIndy Washoe has almost doubled its mail ballot return for the entire 2016 election and Clark has almost equaled its entire mail ballot return for 2016.

It's Oct. 15.

This is a different year in NV. We will know Saturday how much this has affected early voting turnout.

by Anonymousreply 33710/15/2020

R285, he’s actually spending much of it on get out the vote and education efforts

by Anonymousreply 33810/15/2020

[quote]Trump's support has gone up significantly

Not really, not if you look at the aggregate national polls which, collectively, show Trump and Biden about where Trump and Clinton were in 2016. If you cherry-pick one poll, as that article you link to did, then things can look different but that just shows the danger of cherry-picking your polls.

For example, the most recent Economist/YouGov poll gives Trump 27% of the vote, as compared to 28% in 2016. IBD/TIPP gives him 30%. The Hill/Harris poll gives him 27%.

Basically, there really isn't much reason to believe that Trump is going to do significantly better with Latino voters in 2020 than he did in 2016. Perhaps a few percentage points, if that.

by Anonymousreply 33910/15/2020

Sorry, I didn't make it clear until the last paragraph that the comment I was responding to and the numbers I was referring to were specific to Latino voters.

by Anonymousreply 34010/15/2020

R333, that’s a nice ad, and interesting that Republicans sought to point out Biden’s work with stuttering kids.

by Anonymousreply 34110/15/2020

[quote]Republicans continue to eat away at Democrats’ voter registration advantage in Pennsylvania

I don't think the Republicans who will be voting for Biden are switching their registration to D.

by Anonymousreply 34210/15/2020

NEW: Biden opens up double-digit lead over Trump in latest @NPR/@NewsHour/@maristpoll among likely voters.

Some points about Biden's lead: -54-43 over Trump. 54 is highest yet in survey -Now LEADS w WHITES 51-47 -Lags w Latinos

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by Anonymousreply 34310/15/2020

Marist College is an A+ poll.

by Anonymousreply 34410/15/2020

Latinos need to get it together now

by Anonymousreply 34510/15/2020

Lifelong Liberal Democrat here who voted for Obama twice AND Hillary, but all I see in my neighborhood are Trump signs! It's hopeless!

Why can't the Dems GET IT TOGETHER FOR ONCE?!

They just handed Trump four more years!

by Anonymousreply 34610/15/2020

R346, I have some swamp land in Florida...

by Anonymousreply 34710/15/2020

R346, didn't you just drop that exact same trollery in the Democrats Are Taking Over the Senate thread?

by Anonymousreply 34810/15/2020

It's a fucking parody of the trolls, idiot.

by Anonymousreply 34910/15/2020

Poe's Law is a thing.

Poe's law is an adage of Internet culture stating that, without a clear indicator of the author's intent, it is impossible to create a parody of extreme views so obviously exaggerated that it cannot be mistaken by some readers for a sincere expression of the views being parodied.

by Anonymousreply 35010/15/2020

“Joe Biden’s cannibalistic baby eating proclivities must stop! Stop, Joe! Eat Wheaties instead!”

by Anonymousreply 35110/15/2020

FLORIDA If the 2020 election for president were held today ...

Trump/Pence 45% Biden/Harris 48%

(Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, LV, 10/8-12/20)

by Anonymousreply 35210/16/2020

Where o where are the concern trolls? Yesterday DL was rife with them; since the town hall debates they seem to have quite evaporated.

by Anonymousreply 35310/16/2020

The problem with the town hall is that the people who watched Trump's were looking for more entertainment -- a lot of people who say they hate Trump actually love the reality show he has created, though they won't admit it -- but they were BORED last night. He said stupid stuff but it was very similar to other stupid stuff he's said before.

If social media were talking non-stop about how bad Trump did, the concern trolls would be here. Instead, they're almost completely ignoring Trump this morning, talking only about Savannah Guthrie if they mention it at all. There's nothing the concern trolls can do with that, so they've disappeared.

by Anonymousreply 35410/16/2020

R353, you're an asshole. Some of us aren't born optimists. We're not concern trolls. The reason we're not posting is because the anxiety has been exhausting, and we're trying to take a break.

by Anonymousreply 35510/16/2020

From Mason-Dixon:

FLORIDA: Biden 48%, Trump 45% From Emerson College:

NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 49%, Trump 49% From Insider Advantage:

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 46%, Trump 43% From RMG Research:

MICHIGAN: Biden 48%, Trump 42% From Data for Progress:

IOWA: Trump 48%, Biden 47%

by Anonymousreply 35610/16/2020

From Mason-Dixon:

FLORIDA: Biden 48%, Trump 45% From Emerson College:

NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 49%, Trump 49% From Insider Advantage:

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 46%, Trump 43% From RMG Research:

MICHIGAN: Biden 48%, Trump 42% From Data for Progress:

IOWA: Trump 48%, Biden 47%

by Anonymousreply 35710/16/2020

Analysis from Perry Bacon Jr. about Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Ohio.

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by Anonymousreply 35810/16/2020

Joe Biden Is Not Ready to Admit, Even to Himself, How Far Ahead He Is

At Thursday’s town hall, candidate Biden continued doing a fine keeping his head down. A much harder job awaits.


OCT 15, 202011:35 PM

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by Anonymousreply 35910/16/2020

A new Pan Atlantic Research poll in Maine finds Sara Gideon (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 40%.

by Anonymousreply 36010/16/2020

A new Harstad Research poll in Alaska finds Al Gross (I) edging Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 46%.

by Anonymousreply 36110/16/2020


5 Ways to Focus Your Angst and Energy Before Nov. 3

“The No. 1 thing that every American who wants to rescue democracy in the country can do is to sign up for phone bank shifts with the Democratic Party in Wisconsin.”

By Moises Velasquez-Manoff

Contributing Opinion Writer

Oct. 15, 2020

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by Anonymousreply 36210/16/2020

R362 correct link

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by Anonymousreply 36310/16/2020

AP/NORC Poll*** Biden 51 Trump 36

by Anonymousreply 36410/16/2020

Not a fan of IBD/TIPP's results, but the rest look good. Weighted average is +10.5.

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by Anonymousreply 36510/16/2020

Oh, put a sock in it, R355, I was talking about the obvious concern trolls (who raise dubious fears and use non-Anglophone syntax), not people who are simply "concerned" (as I get everytime someone posts a poll showing Biden up less than 10%).

by Anonymousreply 36610/16/2020

Jack wilts again.

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by Anonymousreply 36710/16/2020

[quote] Trump's campaign announced Thursday it has $251 million cash on hand, compared with the eye-popping $432 million Biden's campaign says it has in the bank.

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by Anonymousreply 36810/16/2020

Pennsylvania stats for early voting have several times more registered Democrats than Republicans returning their ballots so far. Republicans will have to make that up in the next two and a half weeks.

Almost 30% of Democrats who requested ballots have returned them; 17% of Republicans. FTR between two and three times as many Democrats requested ballots than Republicans, so presumably more Republicans are planning to vote in person (as is the case elsewhere).

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by Anonymousreply 36910/16/2020

[quote]R353, you're an asshole. Some of us aren't born optimists. We're not concern trolls. The reason we're not posting is because the anxiety has been exhausting, and we're trying to take a break.

He's not an asshole. You've posted nearly 100 times on this thread, mostly telling people to "stay wary" and install all sorts of anti-malware stuff on their own computers to keep the Russians at bay, things like that. You're either trolling or in a panic.

With respect, if you're truly that anxious, you should considering finding a more productive and helpful way to deal with that.

by Anonymousreply 37010/16/2020

New and very moving Lincoln Project video.

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by Anonymousreply 37110/16/2020

Project Lincoln has been invaluable to Dems and Team Biden. Their ads are top notch every damn time.

by Anonymousreply 37210/16/2020

R370, I've posted links to Biden's store and donation pages as well. And Jamie Harrison and Sara Gideon. I've also shared Times and Post articles, in full, in case some don't have subscriptions. I've posted links to information about when ballots are counted, and how to find one's voting location. The botnet thing is real, and turning on Windows Security or installing Symantec or the like is at least something. I'm not a troll.

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by Anonymousreply 37310/16/2020

Concern TROLLS are triggered!

by Anonymousreply 37410/16/2020

I think the trolls are the ones labeling as trolls people giving good information and encouraging people to contribute time and money. I think they want to encourage complacency.

by Anonymousreply 37510/16/2020

R375 is triggered!

by Anonymousreply 37610/16/2020

R376 is a "lifelong Democrat" who proclaims Democrats' efforts as "hopeless". Yikes. Block the disingenuous Boomer, people.

by Anonymousreply 37710/16/2020

Can’t even block that troll because tapping the “block” icon causes the page to crash and re-load.

by Anonymousreply 37810/16/2020

R377, look a little deeper. Whatever R376's faults are, the post you are referring to was a pretty clear parody, as he posted in a follow-up:

[quote[Lifelong Liberal Democrat here who voted for Obama twice AND Hillary, but all I see in my neighborhood are Trump signs! It's hopeless! Why can't the Dems GET IT TOGETHER FOR ONCE?! They just handed Trump four more years!

[quote]It's a fucking parody of the trolls, idiot.

by Anonymousreply 37910/16/2020

R379, sometimes it’s hard to tell when the sarcasm is identical to the real stuff.

by Anonymousreply 38010/16/2020

The parody guy just wasn't funny, original or clear, then had the nerve to criticize posters for not getting that it was a joke, when all he did was post something very similar to what a Trumpster would post. There was nothing extreme or humorous about the post. We don't know you, dummy. Give up the atrocious attempt at a comedy act.

by Anonymousreply 38110/16/2020

376 is a troll. Blocked prior.

by Anonymousreply 38210/16/2020

Dave Wasserman

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by Anonymousreply 38310/16/2020

Anecdotal jolt of joy.

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by Anonymousreply 38410/16/2020

Kent County is a traditionally Republican area. The former Republican voter whom they interviewed pinged fairly seriously to me.

by Anonymousreply 38510/16/2020

I made my first political donation ever yesterday - 150 to Act Blue to split amongst the critical debate races

by Anonymousreply 38610/16/2020

Over 1 million people voted in GA already. In 2016, in total, about 4 million people in GA voted.

by Anonymousreply 38710/16/2020

[quote] Kent County is a traditionally Republican area.

It is the area Jerry Ford represented. It is where Betsy DeVos is from.

by Anonymousreply 38810/16/2020

Donate some money to endangered Gary Peters

by Anonymousreply 38910/16/2020

Why can't this leader's attitude rub off on Democrats?

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by Anonymousreply 39010/16/2020

With the mess that has gone on with mail in ballots I wouldn’t be surprised if Biden turns up short. There are millions who are voting for Biden that have ended up getting their ballots tossed.

by Anonymousreply 39110/16/2020

Latest national polls via @CNN:

NPR/Marist: Biden +11

Kaiser Fam: Biden +11

UM Lowell: Biden +10

NBC/WSJ: Biden +11

ABC/Post: Biden +12

Pew Rsrch: Biden +10

Fox News: Biden +10

Ipsos/Reut: Biden +12

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by Anonymousreply 39210/16/2020

Lots of polls will drop in about 10 days, within the week before the election. Many pollsters release their final polls for the record about six to three days before Election Day. No one cares about polls the Monday before the Election Day

by Anonymousreply 39310/16/2020

There is no mess with mail in ballots, r391. There are Trump asshole defenders who will stop at anything to keep them from being counted, but they won’t win.

by Anonymousreply 39410/16/2020

Why don't they care about polls taken over the weekend before the election? They would show any tightening or widening. IIRC it was because people ignored PA polls in the last four days or so in 2016 that they didn't foresee Trump's narrow win.

by Anonymousreply 39510/16/2020

Yeah, such late polls could indicate a late surge or change, but by November 1, people will be more interested and focused on the actual vote tally a couple of days later.

by Anonymousreply 39610/16/2020

Michigan court stops 2-week absentee ballot extension

By Ed White  |AP

October 16, 2020 at 6:28 PM EDT

DETROIT — Absentee ballots must arrive by Nov. 3 to be counted, the Michigan Court of Appeals said Friday, blocking a 14-day extension that had been ordered by a lower court and embraced by key Democratic officials.

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by Anonymousreply 39710/16/2020

Our judiciary is over as a third branch of goverment. They are now just an extension of the legislative branch.

by Anonymousreply 39810/16/2020

Yes. But people need to be mailing their ballots now. It’s stupid to wait beyond this weekend to mail your ballots

by Anonymousreply 39910/16/2020

[quote] There are millions who are voting for Biden that have ended up getting their ballots tossed.

You are making shit up. And it is WHO not THAT, you fat whore.

by Anonymousreply 40010/16/2020

Actually, Biden isn't "over 50%" in all those swing states. The real tie-breakers are going to be Ohio and Florida. A 1% point in Ohio is virtually statistically meaningless. According to YouGov today, Biden's 1 point lead has dropped again and it is 48.5% Biden and 49.5% Trump. In Florida, Biden's slightly larger lead has gone down to just over 50%. That is very close.

It's more interesting that Texas is a dead heat.

by Anonymousreply 40110/17/2020

If Biden snags Texas then it is all over right?

Everything else is meaningless?

by Anonymousreply 40210/17/2020

With 17 Days to Election Trump Running Ahead of 2016 Polls

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by Anonymousreply 40310/17/2020


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by Anonymousreply 40410/17/2020

[quote] If Biden snags Texas then it is all over right?

If he snags Florida, it’s all over. If he snags Texas, it’s a landslide.

by Anonymousreply 40510/17/2020

[quote]It’s stupid to wait beyond this weekend to mail your ballots

We don't even HAVE our ballots yet. They were supposedly mailed Wednesday morning but no one has gotten any yet. The drop-off locations are already up and running though, I may use one instead of mailing it since our post office is so slow.

That's not a conspiracy I don't think, our post office has been shit for decades.

by Anonymousreply 40610/17/2020

R403, I think RCP is cheating there a little bit. Their 2016 battlegrounds are not the same as the battlegrounds in 2020. RCP also picking and choosing the pollsters their count towards the averages this time for some reason.

by Anonymousreply 40710/17/2020

"For some reason" is that news outlets want a horserace and to generate voter anxiety so that you continue to click on their click-baity articles, otherwise they generate no revenue.

by Anonymousreply 40810/17/2020

Biden’s campaign needs to scrutinize every ballot tossed. It’s what Trump would do, and is probably doing.

by Anonymousreply 40910/17/2020

Why do liberals and Democrats rely on RCP?

by Anonymousreply 41010/17/2020

In looking at 538's 12 paths to victory for Trump, there's only (scary) scenario that seemed plausible to me: Biden takes the Northeast, West Coast (including Nevada), Colorado, New Mexico and the midwest block of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois. Trump wins Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona and the shit states, and squeaks out an electoral victory of 280/258. Biden has a polling lead in PA and has an edge in the state polling in FL, NC and AZ., but I don't know that I'll breathe easy until this is over. Do all you can in the swing states, especially PA.

by Anonymousreply 41110/17/2020

All this analysis feels completely meaningless. I understand the need to find some control in a world full of chaos. After 2016, no matter what any poll says, in favor of any side, I will not have any faith in it. The only thing that is exciting to see is the rise of voters. That's something tangible that we can rally behind, but it also doesn't provide comfort. I do believe the popular vote will be overwhelmingly Biden and the swing states will be an extremely tight margin. I was on the water yesterday in Marina Del Rey in LA and there were a ton of Trump flags on boats. This is for the poster who is using yard signs as a barometer. To me this is telling, because all the boats are docked behind locked, secure gates, so you can't defile them like you would a car or house with such a flag or sticker. I would say there were 80% Trump flags, 20% Biden. LA has been in strictest tier of restrictions since March with no hope in sigh while the rest of the country is at least moderately open and people are getting pissed off. There is a lot of anger at Newsom and Garcetti that could result in Trump votes. With businesses and schools closed while surrounding counties are opening, people are getting increasingly more pissed out and feel CA is being singled out.

by Anonymousreply 41210/17/2020

[quote]The only thing that is exciting to see is the rise of voters.

I would add the high level of donations to Democrats, which also indicates a wave.

by Anonymousreply 41310/17/2020

I guess it's too difficult for r151 to read a newspaper online.

by Anonymousreply 41410/17/2020

r412 is the same piece of shit who bangs himself with Trump yard signs from Bucksegheney, Pennsylsconsin to Alleking, Wisconsolina and his lies are just a broken record.


r412 can type his dense, fictional epistles at 70 words per minute for the Russian troll farm to prevent Vlad Putin from torturing his genitals for the next 20 years. He can plant Trump signs on imaginary boats behind as many gates as he likes. TRUMP IS STILL NOT GOING TO WIN.

For the dozenth time, I challenge r412 to put his money where his troll mouth is.

BET $100 AGAINST ME NOW THAT TRUMP WILL WIN. We'll put our money in an online escrow account or online bookie.

Boris has never taken me up on the bet, just like none of my Republican friends in-person will take a bet on Trump with me. They DID take the bet against me with McCain, but not this time.

by Anonymousreply 41510/17/2020

Here is what the current Electoral map looks like if you count all the latest polls and give precedence to ANY poll that shows Trump ahead.


Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 41610/17/2020

There's no way I'm putting my ballot in the mail with Orange Julius sabotaging the post office and designating ballots as "junk mail" to be disposed of.

My state allows early voting at staffed locations between Oct. 20 and 30. I will drive my ballot to the county clerk myself and hand it to a living employee when there are no lines.

by Anonymousreply 41710/17/2020

R408 exactly, they always do this at exactly this time. If it weren’t for 2016 I wouldn’t be worried at all.

by Anonymousreply 41810/17/2020

Whatever, R415. Keep ignoring other peoples observations and chalk it up to Russian trolls. You do you. Nobody is betting against you. I hope you are right. Save your $100 and put it towards hiring an escort to help alleviate your aggressions.

by Anonymousreply 41910/17/2020

Well, R419, when you post such hilariously stupid shit as:

[quote]so you can't defile them like you would a car or house with such a flag or sticker. I would say there were 80% Trump flags, 20% Biden. ... There is a lot of anger at Newsom and Garcetti that could result in Trump votes. With businesses and schools closed while surrounding counties are opening, people are getting increasingly more pissed out and feel CA is being singled out.

You can't really expect people to take you seriously.

by Anonymousreply 42010/17/2020

R403 That is disgusting. Trump is doing better in swing states than 2016? Fuck those asshole deplorables. If they're the reason Trump wins again America will be the laughing stock of the world.

by Anonymousreply 42110/17/2020

The Trump Yard Sign Troll is now also the Trump Boat Flag TROLL.

by Anonymousreply 42210/17/2020

The Hill

October 17, 2020 - 11:37 AM EDT

Kentucky postal worker fired after dumping 100 absentee ballots

A U.S. postal worker in Kentucky has been fired and could face charges after attempting to dump more than 100 absentee ballots, according to local news outlets.

The United States Postal Service Office of Inspector General said the unidentified postal worker is "no longer employed" after the ballots were found amid a pile of discarded mail in a dumpster on Thursday, according to WKYT.

"The case has been accepted for federal prosecution by the U.S. Attorney's Office," Special Agent Scott Balfour wrote in a statement. "They will determine what charges are appropriate after a review of all the facts in the case."

WKYT reported Thursday that a person found a pile of discarded mail that included 112 absentee ballots and two political advertisements. The ballots were supposed to be sent to the Jeffersontown, Ky., area.

The ballots were returned to the Postal Service and delivered to customers on Thursday.

Earlier this month, a Postal Service mail carrier in New Jersey was arrested for allegedly discarding 1,875 pieces of mail, including 99 general election ballots.

Nicholas Beauchene was charged with one count of delay, secretion or detention of mail and one count of obstruction of mail. He faces a maximum penalty of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine for the delay charge and up to six months in prison and a $6,000 fine for obstruction.

Mail-in voting is under intense scrutiny this year, with more Americans casting their ballots by mail because of coronavirus concerns. President Trump has repeatedly alleged that mail-in voting will lead to widespread voter fraud, despite there being no evidence to support the claim.

The White House highlighted a handful of discarded ballots in Pennsylvania in September, but Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar (D) said there was no "intentional fraud" involved.

by Anonymousreply 42310/17/2020

Fine, I am the boat troll!!!! I cannot wait until this election is over. It has been nothing but Trump for the last 4 years. It's all anyone can talk about, all the news can focus on, every wrong in the world is Trumps fault. It's been every. single. day. since the election results. Whatever happens, can we just not give him anymore oxygen after this election. If he loses, let him just fade away and celebrate Biden's victory. If he wins, we can feel good that the there will be more Gen Z voters coming into the fold in 2024 and less boomers. Either way, I hope we can all just move on and maybe have a shot at coming together as a country. I feel like nobody will have anything talk about if Biden becomes President, which would be a wonderful change. I'd love for the US to just have some peace for a while, deal with this virus, and get back to life.

by Anonymousreply 42410/17/2020

You give his fucking flags and sign enough oxygen, don't you, Svetlana?

by Anonymousreply 42510/17/2020

"After the election, let's all stop giving Trump oxygen, but, until then, I'm going to do my best to TERRIFY and DEMORALIZE gay men with my made-up witnessing of millions of Trump signs and flags all over the country, in every yard, in every lake!"

by Anonymousreply 42610/17/2020

R424, take the bet challenge.

by Anonymousreply 42710/17/2020

[quote]After 2016, no matter what any poll says, in favor of any side, I will not have any faith in it.

Except, the polls were right. The Repugs fucking cheated. Votes were switched. We won't know about it until it's declassified 50 years from now. It's a Repug ploy to get you to disbelieve the polls. It makes cheating so much easier. Stop playing their game.

by Anonymousreply 42810/17/2020

The boat troll is deranged

by Anonymousreply 42910/17/2020

The lack of critical thinking is amazing on DL. There are some incredibly smart people scattered throughout, there are a lot of fucking morons and sheep. Think for yourselves, listen to other points of view, stay away from the Marina if you don't want to be triggered, and stay thirsty my friends.

by Anonymousreply 43010/17/2020

How about you stop trying to sow seeds of doubt, worry and fear, Svetlana?

by Anonymousreply 43110/17/2020

r430 is the reason the word tedious was invented.

by Anonymousreply 43210/17/2020

The seeds of worry, doubt and fear are present everywhere, on every thread. And besides, that's what Boris pays me for.

by Anonymousreply 43310/17/2020

The polls were right R428, but your logic not so much. Clinton had been doing gradually worse since their final debate. Didn't close the deal with much of her softest support. Her popular vote lead was largely from lopsided CA, NY, etc. This year they were saying Biden needs about 5% nationally to overcome the California effect.

by Anonymousreply 43410/17/2020

R434, the Florida results on election night showed cheating for anyone who knows how those vote totals are reported. The fact that numbers in the states where Trump magically won by 1% or less also magically flipped after the vote totals reached the 50% mark, also show evidence of cheating and timed vote flipping.

One thing I was thinking about earlier when someone commented about Trump having to visit Georgia because he's doing so poorly is how it mirrors the last minute visits to the states he magically "won" by 1% or less in 2016. It's to cover the cheating. They can say, "See, that last minute visit gave him just enough! Yep. No malfeasance here!" just like you're saying about those 2016 states where Clinton supposedly just didn't gladhand enough and Trump's last minute visits were magically just enough.

Like I said, people are playing right into the Repug narrative by dismissing the cheating and buying into the 'ohh, it must have been Clinton not visiting, or Trump's last minute visit, or the polls were just all wrong!' crap. They cheated. The end.

by Anonymousreply 43510/17/2020

I will stick up for the boat troll.

There's some weird thing with boat owners being Trump supporters. They have had Trump flotillas in places like Lake Erie. Seriously, one afternoon in July there must have been a hundred boats with obnoxious Trump legs in the Port Clinton area. They organize these bizarre events, and of course all the cult members show up for them.

Think, what social class is most likely to own a boat? I think you'd find a high correlation between Trump supporters and boat owners.

by Anonymousreply 43610/17/2020

Politico has written about this. Apparently, it hasn't just been on lake Erie.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 43710/17/2020

Stop with the cheating nonsense. Florida has a Republican governor and two Republican governors. How stupid do you have to be to not see that Florida could easily go for Trump. No cheating needed.

Biden campaign said today the election would be close. Right now Florida. NC and even Pennsylvania could go to Trump. He is not out of it no matter what people think.

by Anonymousreply 43810/17/2020

Oops... two Republican Senators. The whole north of Florida is basically Alabama.

by Anonymousreply 43910/17/2020

The early voting blog is updated, via @RalstonReports.

Washoe mail numbers show Dems continuing to do well, have bigger than 2 to 1 lead and 13 percent of active voters have cast ballots.

by Anonymousreply 44010/17/2020

Cheating WAS needed to "elect" Florida's governor and one of its senators in 2018, as well as Trump in 2016.

It's a good thing voters overturned the main suppression law and over 250,000 Democrats can vote again.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 44110/17/2020

R439 most of the West Coat, too. Clearwater, Tampa, st Pete etc — total Deploraville.

OC is still very much that way too, in spite of most of the rest of California going blue.

by Anonymousreply 44210/17/2020

[quote]The lack of critical thinking is amazing on DL.

I'm afraid that this is unintentional irony, as you are a prime example of exactly that.

[quote]There are some incredibly smart people scattered throughout

You aren't one of them.

[quote]Think for yourselves, listen to other points of view

We do, where such listening is appropriate. When it's mindless drivel of the kind you spew, we laugh at it. If you don't want to be laughed at, then stop spewing mindless drivel. It's really not that complicated.

[quote] stay away from the Marina if you don't want to be triggered

You do understand that these comments are genuinely stupid, right?

by Anonymousreply 44310/17/2020

[quote]I think you'd find a high correlation between Trump supporters and boat owners.

That's why we're laughing at the boat troll, with idiotic comments from him like:

[quote]To me this is telling, because all the boats are docked behind locked, secure gates, so you can't defile them like you would a car or house with such a flag or sticker. I would say there were 80% Trump flags, 20% Biden.

To me, this is telling that the boat troll doesn't have a fucking clue.

by Anonymousreply 44410/17/2020

Why are there so few decent polls coming out of the swing states, PA, AZ, FL, NC? I'm looking on 538 and the B or A rated polls are few and far between.

by Anonymousreply 44510/17/2020

Re: RCP battleground states comparisons to this date in 2016 (October 17th) -- the biggest problem with that idiotic chart noted above is that those states don't all get lumped together: they're voted as individual states. So any comparisons must be done at the state level, not at the "battleground states" level.

2016 Arizona: Clinton 41.8%, Trump 42.5% -- Trump +0.7

2020 Arizona: Biden 49.2%, Trump 45.2% -- Biden +4.0

2016 Florida: Clinton 47.4%, Trump 43.8% -- Clinton +3.6

2020 Florida: Biden 48.2%, Trump 46.8% -- Biden +1.4

2016 Michigan: Clinton 48.7%, Trump 36.7% -- Clinton +12

2020 Michigan: Biden 50.1%, Trump 42.9% -- Biden +7.2

2016 North Carolina: Clinton 47.3%, Trump 44.0% -- Clinton +3.3

2020 North Carolina: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.8% -- Biden +2.7

2016 Pennsylvania: Clinton 48.5%, Trump 41.8% -- Clinton +6.7

2020 Pennsylvania: Biden 49.9%, Trump 44.3% -- Biden +5.6

2016 Wisconsin: Clinton 45.4%, Trump 39.0% -- Clinton +6.4

2020 Wisconsin: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.6% -- Biden +6.3

So, two things to note from these numbers: the first is that Biden's total percentage in each state is higher than Clinton's numbers were. Her average was 46.5%; his is 49.3%. The second is that a single swing state number can have an outsized impact on the total. Note, in particular, Michigan, which had Clinton +12 at this point in the campaign, vs. Biden currently at 7.2%. Another reason to not trust an aggregate count.

It should also be noted that the polls in half of these states were pretty volatile in 2016. In North Carolina, for example, by the end of October the lead had shifted and Trump was on top in the polls. In Arizona, Trump was on top from early August to mid-October, then Clinton was on top until the end of October, then Trump was on top from then until election day. In Florida, the lead changed hands twice in the final month, etc.

And, finally, October, 2016 had the "October Surprise" of the laptop and the resurgence of "but her emails!!!" including the New York Times devoting its entire front page to the (non-)story. The late-breaking, undecided voters in 2016 were roughly double what they are today, 21% vs. 10%, and a majority of those voters went for Trump, particularly in a few key states.

The 2020 election has been far more stable than was 2016 and there isn't any good reason to believe that will change in the next few weeks. The "October Surprise" that Rudy Giuliani launched and the New York Post tried to hype landed with an empty thud as it was picked apart almost immediately.

The bottom line: Trump needs a game-changer in order to win and it's difficult to see where that game-changer will come from.

by Anonymousreply 44610/17/2020

How anyone can look at those numbers from 2016 and not realize that the vote was hacked I'll never know.

by Anonymousreply 44710/17/2020

A lot of posters don’t do state polling as often as national polling. Consequently, they won’t release polls until right before the election, usually 5 to 2 days right before the election. We will see some release polls in the upcoming week. But most will unleash their final polls in the final five days

by Anonymousreply 44810/17/2020

Apparently r428 comes from 50 years in the future.

by Anonymousreply 44910/17/2020

Sorry r435, but some of her loss in 2016 is completely on Clinton herself. She did not visit WIsconsin in the last 5 months before the election and just assumed she had it in the bag. She did the same with Michigan.

Bottom line is she didn't run a very good campaign (and relax, I voted for her), and losing those states were the result.

by Anonymousreply 45010/17/2020

It feels like Joe Biden has visited Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin more this election in the middle of a pandemic than Hillary did in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 45110/17/2020

You do know that many here are not prepared to face that, R450?

by Anonymousreply 45210/17/2020

Wow, the idiot trolls are really infesting DL this weekend. They're everywhere. Well, at least the Trumplickers aren't out spreading Covid if they are busy typing from their mother's basements.

by Anonymousreply 45310/17/2020

I own a boat, and I’d like Trump to take a long walk on a short dock.

by Anonymousreply 45410/17/2020

2018 seems like a hundred years ago, doesn’t it? It feels like Trump has been in the WH forever.

by Anonymousreply 45510/17/2020

National Average:

@FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.4% (+10.6) Trump 41.8% . RCP: Biden 51.3% (+9.0) Trump 42.3%

by Anonymousreply 45610/17/2020

National GE: Biden 54% (+12) Trump 42% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 52% (+8) Republicans 44%

@USCDornsife Tracking Poll, LV, 10/3-16

by Anonymousreply 45710/17/2020

Every day that orange turd is tweeting away from the WH feels like a month. The last four years has been fucking ENDLESS.

by Anonymousreply 45810/17/2020

Trump debuted a new slicked back hairstyle in an attempt to re-energize his campaign.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 45910/17/2020

Poll added in GA:

SurveyMonkey RV [56] 2020-09-15 to 2020-10-12

Biden 51.0% Trump 46.0%

New GA @ElectionGraphs average:

Biden up by 1.6% (Weak Biden) [Biden 47.8%, Trump 46.1%]


by Anonymousreply 46010/17/2020

[quote] My state allows early voting at staffed locations between Oct. 20 and 30. I will drive my ballot to the county clerk myself and hand it to a living employee when there are no lines.

They can still toss it. Most states don’t count them until Election Day. That’s when decisions are made.

by Anonymousreply 46110/17/2020

[quote] It's a good thing voters overturned the main suppression law and over 250,000 Democrats can vote again.

But will they?

by Anonymousreply 46210/17/2020

I continue to be fascinated by the fact that to motivate Republicans, tell them they're winning even if they're not. If you want to motivate Democrats, tell them they're losing even if they're not.

Come on, Dems. Let's act like we're fucking losers who are 50 points down and there's no hope whatsoever and we're DOOOOOOOOOMED!!!1! The polls are all wrong, you can't trust any of them, Trump is more popular than ever and just you wait, election night 2020 is going to make 2016 feel like a damn party. We're hopeless. We're losers. It's awful, there's no hope.


by Anonymousreply 46310/17/2020

Democrats have a confidence problem. Always feel like we’re losing

by Anonymousreply 46410/17/2020

R437 & R436 - Thank you. And to the rest, whatever. I'm just telling you what I saw. This was my one and only report from the docks. Good night, fuck off, and may the odds be ever in your favor.

by Anonymousreply 46510/18/2020

[quote]Democrats have a confidence problem. Always feel like we’re losing

And no wonder, when between an oligarchic Electoral College and Republican machinations, the system is now such that Democrats need a huge majority to win the presidency—Republicans are now practically expected to win with a minority. We need to wait on line for hours or even all day if we live in a blue area in a Republican state. Republicans control the Senate despite winning a paltry minority of senatorial votes. Same with the House before the Democrats won. Democrats need huge majorities to control government; Republicans don't even need to win a majority at the national level.

by Anonymousreply 46610/18/2020

[quote] Most states don’t count them until Election Day.

Not true.

by Anonymousreply 46710/18/2020

After the 1st Saturday of In Person Early Voting in NC, more than 1.4 million of us have voted. Black voters are overperforming their proportion of the electorate, which is why the NCGOP illegally tried to limit weekend EV. 2% of Black voters in NC are registered Republicans.

by Anonymousreply 46810/18/2020

The Boat Troll is a very divisive poster troll. He is posting widely varying "opinions" all over the DL, trying to cause confusion and worry:

Blaming Democrats:

[quote]When Trump Loses The Election: Prediction - I predict: A surge in democratic mail in ballots which is already happening, making it one of the most participated elections in history. An almost certain win for Biden leading up to election day. An even stronger than typical turn out for in person voting by republicans in swing states and in general, refusing to vote by mail -Trump barely winning the electoral college but democrats demanding a delayed victory speech until all the ballots are counted. -I think the script will be flipped where it won't be Trump holding things up or refusing the white house, but the Democratic party refusing to accept the results. Recounts, delays, etc.

Protecting Trump:

[quote]if Trump does get re-elected, live your life and don't give him another 4 years where you blame everything that's wrong on a Trump.

Posting completely OPPOSITE of his moronic boat flag lies:

[quote]Everywhere I look are Biden signs, as far as the eye can see. Mail in ballots for Biden indicate a blue wave that will literally cover the entire country. Trump is toast. The blue wave will cool off that hot burn, hunty. It's an absolute landslide and the news is way more savvy than in 2016. They have so much more correct reporting. Suck it, Drumpf!

Confusion and chaos are the Republicans' and Putin's greatest weapon.

by Anonymousreply 46910/18/2020

Thanks R469. What a loser.

by Anonymousreply 47010/18/2020

[quote]The Trump Yard Sign Troll is now also the Trump Boat Flag TROLL.

He's also the Covid Denier Troll and others, as you can see in R469.

I genuinely don't know where trolls like him and Matt get the time in their day to troll on multiple topics, and for years on end. He was definitely in the 2016 and 2018 political threads, and someone said they thought he started as far back as 2012 when Peggy Noonan obsessed over Romney and yard signs.

Why does he spend so much time on this? He didn't change a single person's vote. A bunch of his threads from 2016 were even deleted, probably because he was sockpuppetting so heavily in them. All that time and effort and it hasn't made any difference at all, but he keeps doing it.

by Anonymousreply 47110/18/2020

I blocked this Tokyo Rose troll but when I looked at my Ignored posters I don't see the posts R469 is quoting. Is there another way for him to be posting?

by Anonymousreply 47210/18/2020

R472, the yard sign troll has sockpuppets who will show up and pretend to be others from PA who saw exactly what he did and praise him for being so smart and wonderful.

The "blue wave will cool off that hot burn" comment in R469 is from one of those sockpuppets, for example. They posted that in "When Trump Loses The Election: Prediction" thread. But they also posted in this thread, saying they saw what the yard sign troll did and they support him. If you don't have that specific sockpuppet ignored, you won't see the comment in your ignored tab.

by Anonymousreply 47310/18/2020

R440, 13% of Nevadans already having voted is really good considering in-person early voting just started yesterday.

This article says the results in Nevada won’t be known for days. Lots of good info on how to vote in Nevada. Ballots were mailed out automatically due to the pandemic. If you want to vote in person, bring your mail in ballot to the polling place so they can see you’re only voting once.

“Nevada counties can start tallying votes cast through mail-in ballots 14 days before the general election on Nov. 3, with the first results released after polls close on Election Day, election officials said.

“In Clark County, the initial results will include ballots received by mail through Nov. 2 and cast in person during early voting, which runs Oct. 17-30, Registrar Joe Gloria said.

“The final results, however, aren’t expected until “several days” after the election, according to the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office.

“As long as mail-in ballots are postmarked by Nov. 3 and received no later than seven days after the election, they will be counted.

“Gloria said Clark County can process 40,000 to 50,000 mail-in ballots daily.“

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 47410/18/2020

So the poster, R473, is posting from different accounts? (I'm not very technologically aware.) How do you know they're all from the same person?

by Anonymousreply 47510/18/2020

R469 here. All of the posts I quoted were from the same Boat Troll poster in my Ignored list. They were all him, not different posters.

You have to visit a lot of threads in order to see all of a certain troll's propaganda posts. If you haven't RECENTLY visited a particular thread, his posts won't show up in your ignored list.

Jump into all of the Biden, Polls, Democrats Winning Senate, etc. threads, and then check your Ignored for the Boat Troll's posts, and most should show up in there. But not always, because I just checked, and some fell off, so I have to go back into those other political threads and refresh to find his "stealthy" pro-Trump propaganda posts.

BTW, R436 & R437, who stuck up for the Boat Troll, also has many pro-Trump threads he starts, especially about celebrities endorsing Trump, and "How Will You Live If Trump Wins?" defeatist shit.

by Anonymousreply 47610/18/2020

[quote]But will they?

Those former felons in Florida mostly cannot, as R441's link shows, as they are required to repay the state for all "fines, fees, court costs, and restitution" before they can vote. And the state won't even tell them how much that is (mostly because the state simply does not know) or even review their attempts to register.

And if they manage to successfully register and vote, believing that they have indeed paid everything back, and the state later identifies something they missed, they have broken the law and can be prosecuted. The Florida legislature basically gutted the citizen initiative, rendering it toothless.

A federal judge ruled against the state but the 11th Circuit Court overturned his ruling. And now the state is trying to push former felons off of the voter rolls.

[quote]Division of Elections Director Maria Matthews, in an email to the state’s 67 local election supervisors late Tuesday, said they would “begin to see” files on registered voters “whose potential ineligibility is based on not having satisfied the legal financial obligations of their sentence.”

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 47710/18/2020

[quote]All of the posts I quoted were from the same Boat Troll poster in my Ignored list. They were all him, not different posters.

Ah, interesting. I have the boat flag troll on ignore already and saw him saying he agreed with the PA yard sign troll and repeating what the yard sign troll said. He frequently shows up to "support" the yard sign troll and I've assumed for years that it's a sockpuppet. Could be two different people, who knows.

by Anonymousreply 47810/18/2020

[quote]Democrats have a confidence problem. Always feel like we’re losing

That's why Democrats have such a hard time attracting male voters. Men are attracted to strength and confidence, which Republicans are better at conveying. Democrats need to stop with the constant angst and worrying. That kind of weakness repels voters.

by Anonymousreply 47910/18/2020

Nearly 4 million have voted in Texas - voter suppression and all. Truly remarkable. In 2016, a total of 8.9 voted.

Keep going folks. Let’s turn Texas blue and end Cornyn!

by Anonymousreply 48010/18/2020

Two more weeks of polling

From CBS News:

ARIZONA: Biden 50%, Trump 47% WISCONSIN: Biden 51%, Trump 46%

by Anonymousreply 48110/18/2020

We need another Trump disaster like his taxes or debate performance to goose D numbers.

by Anonymousreply 48210/18/2020

We do. I wish one of the big antiTrump books waited to come out in mid October instead of way back in early September

by Anonymousreply 48310/18/2020

Or for either of those two cowards Jim Mattis and John Kelly to come forward and confirm that Trump really did call those dead WWII veterans suckers and losers. Even if he didn’t actually say it, fucking lie about it and help sink this bastard.

by Anonymousreply 48410/18/2020

The Boat Troll posted this on the "What If Trump Wins" thread:

[quote]What if Trump wins? If Trump wins, you will get on with life, you will either continue to live the happy or sad existence you currently embody, and if it effects occupies more than 5% of your thoughts, seek help. My rabbi said that if politics consumes more than 5% of your life, you are not living and appreciating the life you live.

See, making fun of Democrats yet again.

by Anonymousreply 48510/18/2020

R483, see the graph.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 48610/18/2020

The Yard Sign Troll is the OP of the "What Trump Wins?" thread, so he is seemingly a different poster than the Boat Troll, but sock puppets might be the answer.

Either way, both are STILL actively working to undermine Gay Democrats' morale and optimism.

by Anonymousreply 48710/18/2020

Based on his other posts, the Yard Sign Troll is a MAGAdroid, mindlessly regurgitating Republican talking points while simultaneously claiming to be an "independent."

by Anonymousreply 48810/18/2020

No, the Bucks County Yard Sign Troll openly asserts he'll be voting for Trump. His bland, chipper avowals of support for the whole Trump program, including covid denialism and, presumably, overturning marriage equality and gay rights, are grotesque, especially on this board. I blocked him.

by Anonymousreply 48910/18/2020

Intermission: Joe Biden reads and replies to tweets.

Watch until the end.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 49010/18/2020

[quote]No, the Bucks County Yard Sign Troll openly asserts he'll be voting for Trump

Yes, but he has also repeatedly said that he considers himself to be a "moderate." His posts say otherwise:

[quote]I also expect [Trump] will get the upper middle class suburban white vote because of the riots and looting.

[quote]I do think Trump will win PA a second time, by more of a margin than in 2016. I thought this well before the riots though. The riots just increase his chances.

[quote]These people are the ones that will reject Biden being the one to charge of the economic recovery. And now, to add to that is the looting and riots that people see on TV and the internet all day. That just adds to Bidens chances of losing PA.

[quote]I think there will be a big backlash with BLM and the riots and looting. It's just inevitable.

[quote]those issues don't effect my position. As a small business owner, I am voting for Trump. I'm at the point where I am tuning out a lot of noise in regards to all of these "bombshells" - as with any election, these things all seem to be timed in Sept/October. I'm not paying much attention to it. The people I do discuss Trump with, mostly fellow business owners, also aren't paying much attention to these things.

[quote]If anything when I heard about the Woodward book - and some of it's contents, where he states the end of January Trump played down the virus to the public - my thoughts were - I wonder how Nancy Pelosi and Cuomo will spin this? These 2 were telling people to come down to Chinatown in March, and accused Trump of racism when he halted China travel in February. But I expect them to still blame Trump for the virus... the hypocrisy is nauseating.

[quote]And then I think of this - In January/Feb, WHO predicted 2 million deaths in the US. Considering that hasn't happened, its a good thing Trump didn't create panic. Because then people would accuse him of scaring the American people. Looking realistically at the Virus, we have 6 million cases and only 200K deaths. I think he made a good call shutting down travel, while at the same time not trying to panic the public.

[quote] The "left" has become too far left - people have grown tired of the tantrums. The easiest way to avoid them is to be quiet and ignore your antics. Do you think Biden is perfect - he's made more racist comments than Trump has. Fascist? - Take a good look at what the left has become. It's almost projection on your part.

[quote]All of the hysteria coming from - I won't even use the word democrats - I'll just say the extreme far left. They have taken over the democratic party.

[quote]I do think Bidens virtual tech campaign - not allowing door knockers - will hurt him. He needs to be out and about. Kamala isn't doing much either. Yes, the excuse is the virus, but come on.. he also barely takes questions from the press. It's purposeful. Yes, they want to prevent him from gaffe's but he can't expect to coast along on polls when we all know the race will tighten.

[quote]You guys have been played for 4 years. And you say Trump supporters are dumb? Look in the mirror. Ya'll are fools.

[quote]Obama knew. Biden Knew. It was all fake. Damn, what fools you are - still in denial.

[quote]Every time you called a poster Borris or natasha - it was all based on lies concocted by Hillary!

[quote]Your fake russia scandal has come crashing down. Its now proven, that the past 4 years were all based on a fake made up story by Hillary, who as it turns out - is the ultimate deplorable.

[quote]Nancy [Pelosi] is living in an alternate universe and clearly cannot relate to the average American who has been hurt by the economy due to COVID.

[quote]She doesn't care at all about the people - she only cares about her package that will benefit her special interest groups. Most of that money isn't going to "the people" - it's all special interests calling the shots. She's just awful.

by Anonymousreply 49110/18/2020

Thanks, R491, but you're spending too much time reading the BCYST for your own good. You're like a GI on Midway listening to Tokyo Rose, but without the Benny Goodman. He overrepresents gay Republicans and—I hope—PA Republicans.

by Anonymousreply 49210/18/2020

That video at r490 is so touching.

by Anonymousreply 49310/18/2020

The idea that emphasizing a close race to encourage Dems to vote is somehow undermining Dem confidence is ridiculous. Everyone knows what happened in 2016 and so there is no reason to be "confident" we will win What we should be is cautiously optimistic. Confidence breeds complacency, and we know that in 2016 many failed to vote because they were confident Hilary would win. Pundits recently started predicting a potential landslide for Dems, so Dem operatives are now cleverly countering that narrative to avoid the Dem voter complacency that false confidence can breed.

by Anonymousreply 49410/18/2020

The idea that emphasizing a close race to encourage Dems to vote is somehow undermining Dem confidence is ridiculous. Everyone knows what happened in 2016 and so there is no reason to be "confident" we will win What we should be is cautiously optimistic. Confidence breeds complacency, and we know that in 2016 many failed to vote because they were confident Hilary would win. Pundits recently started predicting a potential landslide for Dems, so Dem operatives are now cleverly countering that narrative to avoid the Dem voter complacency that false confidence can breed.

by Anonymousreply 49510/18/2020

[quote]but you're spending too much time reading the BCYST for your own good.

Thanks but, honestly, not really. He showed himself to be an idiot in 2016 so I look on him more for amusement than anything else. I don't take his rantings anymore seriously today than I did four years ago.

by Anonymousreply 49610/18/2020

Nate Cohn: It doesn't look like we're getting many polls this weekend, which probably sets up a wave heading into the final debate. That said, the final debate is so close to the end this year that I can imagine some just waiting until the final stretch.

by Anonymousreply 49710/18/2020

R490, thanks. Yes the video is wonderful. Not only is Joe progressive on gay rights, he got it from his dad.

by Anonymousreply 49810/18/2020

R490 that was cute thanks for that. But why does it have to be a dog in the WH? Do only far left commies and gays love cats?

by Anonymousreply 49910/18/2020

[quote] Demo-cats for Joe Biden!

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by Anonymousreply 50010/18/2020

R497 Wait, there's ANOTHER debate?! Good Christ, make it stop.

by Anonymousreply 50110/18/2020

I don't think I can watch the final debate. Please, let's just vote already.

by Anonymousreply 50210/18/2020

R502 troll.

by Anonymousreply 50310/18/2020

Troll for what, R503?

For being over this entire thing and wanting election day to come already so Joe can wipe the floor with Trump, and we can finally move forward?

Nothing is going to come out of the debate. Joe is going to do fine, Trump is going to go off the rails because he can't help himself, the media will try to both-sides things by doing the "what about COURT PACKING!!!111!!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!" thing even though Trump spent 90 minutes playing with his own shit, and nothing will change.

by Anonymousreply 50410/18/2020

R503, just leave already. You’re not wanted here.

by Anonymousreply 50510/18/2020

Wisconsin also a state in which Biden is over-performing Clinton among White, non-college voters *more* than he is among White, college voters

Among White men who backed Trump in 2016, about one in ten now say they're supporting Biden

May not seem like a lot, but very important

by Anonymousreply 50610/18/2020

Poll added in NM:

SurveyMonkey LV [56] 2020-09-15 to 2020-10-12

Biden 53.0% Trump 46.0%

New NM @ElectionGraphs average:

Biden up by 10.7% (Solid Biden) [Biden 53.1%, Trump 42.4%]


by Anonymousreply 50710/18/2020

Poll added in CO:

SurveyMonkey LV [56] 2020-09-15 to 2020-10-12

Biden 57.0% Trump 41.0%

New CO @ElectionGraphs average:

Biden up by 13.4% (Solid Biden) [Biden 53.8%, Trump 40.4%]


by Anonymousreply 50810/18/2020

Poll added in AZ:

SurveyMonkey LV [56] 2020-09-15 to 2020-10-12

Biden 51.0% Trump 47.0%

New AZ @ElectionGraphs average:

Biden up by 2.1% (Weak Biden) [Biden 48.4%, Trump 46.3%]


by Anonymousreply 50910/18/2020

Poll added in AZ:

YouGov w/Lean [2] 2020-10-13 to 2020-10-16

Biden 50.0% Trump 47.0%

New AZ @ElectionGraphs average:

Biden up by 2.1% (Weak Biden) [Biden 48.4%, Trump 46.3%]


by Anonymousreply 51010/18/2020

Poll added in WI:

SurveyMonkey RV [56] 2020-09-15 to 2020-10-12

Biden 53.0% Trump 44.0%

New WI @ElectionGraphs average:

Biden up by 7.4% (Strong Biden) [Biden 51.2%, Trump 43.8%]


by Anonymousreply 51110/18/2020

Good discussion about the state of the race

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by Anonymousreply 51210/18/2020

That video at R490 should be required viewing for any undecided voters.

by Anonymousreply 51310/18/2020

BREAKING: Hunter Biden was living in California when Rudy Giuliani claims he dropped his laptop off for repair in Delaware. Now Giuliani says he never saw the laptop, but just copies of a hard drive.

This story is such a disaster.

by Anonymousreply 51410/18/2020

See above:

Andrii Derkach, one of the key players in Giuliani’s years-long dirt-digging mission against Joe Biden in Ukraine, piggybacked on the former New York City mayor’s latest Biden smears—supposedly involving a forgotten laptop. Derkach claimed on Facebook that there is a “second laptop” with evidence of corruption involving the Biden family.

The claim appears to muddy the waters around Giuliani’s latest “smoking gun” charge against Hunter Biden. He says they came to light after an obscure Delaware computer repair shop owner found Biden’s laptop in his possession and copied the hard drive before alerting federal authorities and inexplicably Giuliani’s own lawyer. Now, with Derkach jumping in with claims of a “second laptop,” that would mean private computer contents allegedly connected to Hunter Biden have somehow found their way into the hands of three separate parties: A media empire controlled by a Chinese billionaire who’s tight with Steve Bannon; a random Delaware shop owner who is outspoken in his support of Trump; and Derkach, a Ukrainian conspiracy theory peddler who studied at Moscow’s FSB academy.

Derkach wrote on Facebook about the questionable New York Post report that relied on unverified images of emails provided by Trump allies to supposedly prove a corruption scheme by Biden and his son involving Ukrainian gas company Burisma. He then said there was a second laptop, which was used by “two representatives for the interests of [Burisma founder Mykola] Zlochevsky.

by Anonymousreply 51510/18/2020

[quote] This story is such a disaster.

What are you talking about? It’s completely believable.

by Anonymousreply 51610/18/2020

Love that video R490. It's so nice to listen to a (possible) president who's an actual human talking like an actual human.

by Anonymousreply 51710/18/2020

Dave Wasserman:

Update: we're midway through October, and still no sign of a "shift" at the district level. If anything, seeing increasingly horrific data for Trump in high-college suburban seats.

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by Anonymousreply 51810/18/2020

I don't think I can watch the final debate. Please, let's just vote already.

Me neither; I hope Dump pussies out again

by Anonymousreply 51910/18/2020

If Joe wants to win Pennsylvania, he'll have to screw environmentalists. If he's not in favor of Fracking, he'll lose the state. Too many residents want jobs in the industry.

by Anonymousreply 52010/18/2020

Just had a conversation with my cousin, who I had been avoiding. The last I spoke with her (early 2019) she was firmly Pro-Trump. Her mom is very sick so I gave her a call just to check on that situation.

She is done with Trump, now. Totally exhausted by and over him. She's not even planning on watching any news, at all, before she goes to vote early.

I'm in shock. I wasn't going to bring up politics with her and was actually going to do everything I could to avoid it. I never, ever thought I'd hear her say that she would vote blue.

I need a drink, DL.

by Anonymousreply 52110/18/2020

NEW @RBIStrategies (B/C) Colorado poll October 12-16:

Biden 55% (+17) Trump 38% Jorgensen 4% Hawkins 2%

Hickenlooper 53% (+14) Gardner 39% Doane 2% Evans 1%

MOE +/- 4.37%

by Anonymousreply 52210/18/2020

Presidential National Average Lead 16 Days To E-Day:

2004: Bush +4 2008: Obama +5 2012: Obama +0.2 2016: Clinton +6.3 2020: Biden: +10.6

by Anonymousreply 52310/18/2020

Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 54% (-) Trump (R): 41% (-)

USC Dornsife / October 17, 2020 / n=5646 / Online

(% chg October 16)


by Anonymousreply 52410/18/2020

So far, first-time and infrequent Democratic voters are outpacing registered Republicans with larger margins than in 2016, according to data from TargetSmart, a Democratic firm.

59% of first-time voters who already cast ballots in Pennsylvania are registered Democrats, compared to the just 15% who are registered Republicans. Democratic first-time voters were just barely outvoting Republicans (40% to 38%) at this point in 2016.

In Florida, registered Democrats' lead over registered Republicans among first-time voters has grown by nearly 10 percentage points compared to 2016.

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by Anonymousreply 52510/18/2020

[quote]Yes the video is wonderful. Not only is Joe progressive on gay rights, he got it from his dad.

It is. I have a sneaking suspicion that Joe is embroidering his dad's quotes but I don't mind because it's for a good cause.

Cheeto's "Sir" stories, on the other hand, are blatantly made up.

by Anonymousreply 52610/18/2020

Very positive news. What killed Hillary was Comey turning all the undecideds against her. The Sunday before the election, Maureen Dowd wrote that Trump was a better bet than Clinton. The mob is not turning on Biden.

by Anonymousreply 52710/18/2020

The Hunter Biden conspiracy takes a QAnon turn:

Aaron Rupar @atrupar

Ron Johnson is on Fox News suggesting there's child pornography on the computer that purportedly belongs to Hunter Biden

Jake Tapper @jaketapper

It was always a fait accompli that someone from Fox and someone from the GOP would start Q-Anon-ing the race with disgusting allegations/zero evidence. It was just a question as to who. Now the question is whether their colleagues understand the stink will stick to them if silent

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by Anonymousreply 52810/18/2020

Fucking repulsive lying bastard. Can Hunter sue? Because I would sue that mother fucker so hard his grandchildren would be on welfare.

by Anonymousreply 52910/18/2020

"59% of first-time voters who already cast ballots in Pennsylvania are registered Democrats, compared to the just 15% who are registered Republicans. Democratic first-time voters were just barely outvoting Republicans (40% to 38%) at this point in 2016." (via @axios)

by Anonymousreply 53010/18/2020

We’re never going to have a normal Presidential election again, are we?

by Anonymousreply 53110/18/2020

The GOP is desperate. They've even got Tara Reade putting out a "tell-all" at the end of the month, so sadly desperate.

by Anonymousreply 53210/18/2020

Tara Reade dog won’t hunt.

by Anonymousreply 53310/18/2020

How many days left?

by Anonymousreply 53410/18/2020

My god just 16 days.

by Anonymousreply 53510/18/2020

So Hunter Biden willy nilly leaves his laptops around everywhere for people to snoop.

by Anonymousreply 53610/18/2020

Sorry to ask a dim question, but is there a way of knowing if the early voters are new Dem voters, or just people who don’t want to wait until election day?

by Anonymousreply 53710/18/2020

I mean seriously, who hasn't found a laptop full of Russian propaganda and shirtless pics of Hunter Biden at one time or another?

by Anonymousreply 53810/18/2020

R536, yeah he magically teleports from his home in California and leaves his MacBook at a random PC repair shop in Delaware, instead of the Genius Bar at the Grove.

Makes sense 🙄

by Anonymousreply 53910/18/2020

Steady at 87!

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by Anonymousreply 54010/18/2020

[quote]So Hunter Biden willy nilly leaves his laptops around everywhere for people to snoop.

And said laptops don't have passwords or encryption. And he uses an email client that doesn't require passwords.

by Anonymousreply 54110/18/2020

Are you implying something about Granpa, r538?

by Anonymousreply 54210/18/2020

[quote] yeah he magically teleports from his home in California and leaves his MacBook at a random PC repair shop in Delaware, instead of the Genius Bar at the Grove.

THREE MacBooks!

Netanyahu takes his dirty laundry to DC. Why can't Hunter bring his busted laptops full of sensitive personal and corporate information to a random repair shop in DE while visiting Dad? /s

by Anonymousreply 54310/18/2020

Just out from 538.

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by Anonymousreply 54410/18/2020

R543, it's over. Not happening. Like Tara. Wait for the next one.

by Anonymousreply 54510/18/2020

Biden v. Trump 10/15 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +11.2/Clinton +6.2 EC: Biden 273-124 (+149)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

Biden lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in NINE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton


by Anonymousreply 54610/18/2020

R545, the s/ was for 'sarcasm".

by Anonymousreply 54710/18/2020

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Before you laugh at Dem donors for giving Amy McGrath $36.9 million this quarter, here's a live look at GOP donors giving hopeless R challengers to Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Kweisi Mfume and Adam Schiff a combined $20 million. #fundraging

by Anonymousreply 54810/18/2020

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The current delegation count stands at 26R, 22D and 2 ties (PA & MI, which is technically 7D-6R-1L). Dems do have a genuine opportunity in PA, where we see R-held #PA10 as a Toss Up. In MI, Ds have a shot at 8D-6R.

But Rs could also earn a tie in MN if they pick up #MN07.

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by Anonymousreply 54910/18/2020

Holy shit, r538!

I was vacuuming under my bed last week and found a laptop there! I just cracked it open, and sure enough, it has Hunter's name carved into the track pad. I need to call Rudy Giuliani and get this to him as soon as possible!

by Anonymousreply 55010/18/2020

This is making me very, very anxious. I'm nervous about this election.

by Anonymousreply 55110/18/2020

15 days

by Anonymousreply 55210/19/2020

R551 We all are. Do wants in your control- vote, encourage others to vote, and keep it positive.

by Anonymousreply 55310/19/2020

**^^what’s in your control

by Anonymousreply 55410/19/2020

[quote] the Bucks County Yard Sign Troll openly asserts he'll be voting for Trump

Back when he started all this, he claimed to be a Democrat, basically your usual "concerned Democrat" shtick. This year when he lost his mind on some poll thread a few weeks ago, he wrote a 2000-word essay on why he was voting for Trump, which of course we suspected from the beginning.

I figure that's a pretty good sign the Trump trolls are panicking, if they're no longer pretending to be Democrats but are trying the old "bandwagon" gambit, hoping that they can convince others to vote Trump just like they are. Kind of a Hail Mary pass sort of a thing.

by Anonymousreply 55510/19/2020

The media seem eager to make the Hunter Biden email scam happen: e.g., MSNBC this morning on Stephanie Ruhle, where Shannon Pettypiece called it "the Hunter Biden SCANDAL" as if there's anything there.

They're on a hair trigger, eager to desperately try to rehabilitate this bullshit.

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by Anonymousreply 55610/19/2020

I’m sick of it. Call them out

by Anonymousreply 55710/19/2020

Wake up Democrats!

Florida EV as of 10:30 AM

Dem 34,825 Rep 28,888

Total 75,680

48/67 counties reporting

by Anonymousreply 55810/19/2020

I truly think non-Mexican Latinos are the next big GOP demographic.

FL is indeed too close. Venezuelans and Cubans.

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by Anonymousreply 55910/19/2020

Florida has unique latin demographics. Democrats have done a terrible job of energizing and converting the burgeoning Dominican and Puerto Rican population there. It’s political malpractice.

by Anonymousreply 56010/19/2020

Democrats are also lagging turnout benchmarks in North Carolina. We need all hands on deck for turnout

by Anonymousreply 56110/19/2020

Bloomberg is on it, R560. Hopefully, anyway.

by Anonymousreply 56210/19/2020

Why are they waiting until Wednesday to put Obama and Michelle on the campaign trail? They should’ve been on the campaign trail since the end of September

by Anonymousreply 56310/19/2020

Trump’s rallies, reckless as they are, seem to be ramping up his base to vote

by Anonymousreply 56410/19/2020

Some nice news about Indian-Americans. 72% voting for Biden-Harris.

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by Anonymousreply 56510/19/2020

Detailed illustrated piece on how your ballot could be rejected.

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by Anonymousreply 56610/19/2020

R561, where are you reading that about turnout?

by Anonymousreply 56710/19/2020

Florida party breakdown isn't very informative piece of intelligence to predict the election outcome in that state. It's useful from Democratic turnout perspective but that state isn't known as a Dem stronghold anyway. I think the success in FL depends on how Republicans and Independents vote in this election. Particularly the older voters who skew Republican by a large margin in FL.

by Anonymousreply 56810/19/2020

[quote]Trump’s rallies, reckless as they are, seem to be ramping up his base to vote

Not really. There is literally no sign at all that this is happening.

by Anonymousreply 56910/19/2020

Jeez R564, you've posted literally hundreds of times over the last few days, screaming about how Democrats are terrible at every aspect of campaigning and are "slipping" in a host of states. If you're not starting a new thread about Minnesota or Florida "slipping" you're on threads like this, spamming us with fake facts like at R561.

Even Axios is noting positive results in North Carolina turnout and they're not exactly pro-Democratic. No, we're not missing key benchmarks in North Carolina. Stop making shit up.

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by Anonymousreply 57010/19/2020

Speaking of the North Carolina situation....

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by Anonymousreply 57110/19/2020

88 - new high, I think.

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by Anonymousreply 57210/19/2020

Uh-oh..... NEW: The Trump campaign is canceling TV ad schedules that had been booked in OHIO and MINNESOTA (10/20-10/26 flight)

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by Anonymousreply 57310/19/2020

[quote]Democrats are also lagging turnout benchmarks in North Carolina. We need all hands on deck for turnout

Can I ask why you post fake shit like this?

[quote]North Carolina may have broken a record for first-day, early-voting turnout on Thursday, when more than 333,000 people showed up in person to cast their ballots, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

[quote]That’s more than double the number of voters who cast their ballots in person on the first day of early voting in the 2016 presidential election, according to data shared by the board in a statement.

The latest stats from the U.S. Elections Project show that over 1.5 million people have voted in North Carolina, with registered Democrats casting 708,355 of the votes, 46.4% of the total. Republicans are 24.9%; no party affiliation are 28.4%. 77.7% of those voting also voted in 2016; 22.7% did not.

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by Anonymousreply 57410/19/2020

A lot of DLers accuse anyone express any anxiety for the Biden campaign as trolls seeking to undermine confidence. In fact, the majority of partisan Dems are similarly anxious.

The gung-ho optimists either just became politically active and know little about the 2016 election, are GOP supporters trying to depress turnout, or are simply on another feel-great planet.

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by Anonymousreply 57510/19/2020

Biden yard signs in Central Pennsylvania!

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by Anonymousreply 57610/19/2020

That's not really an "uh-oh," R573. He's likely pulling out of those states for two different reasons: Ohio because he thinks he has it; Minnesota because he thinks he doesn't.

by Anonymousreply 57710/19/2020

R577, you know that how?

by Anonymousreply 57810/19/2020

Obviously, the Macho Man is crushing it to the extent that he doesn't need ads, R573! DUH! He has Trumper boat and car parades and yard signs in PA and fenced in marinas! He doesn't even really need to be doing rallys at this point, he just has THAT MUCH stamina, ok? He's very manly and wants to show how easily he kicked the China Virus' yellow ass!

by Anonymousreply 57910/19/2020

[quote]A lot of DLers accuse anyone express any anxiety for the Biden campaign as trolls seeking to undermine confidence.

Not really. Mostly, we're pointing out that the "anxiety" isn't based on anything real: data, turnout, money, polling, enthusiasm, etc. And the article you link to also doesn't have any of that. It's basically just: "we have to not be overconfident because of what happened in 2016."

by Anonymousreply 58010/19/2020

In a year of political anger, undecided voters inspire a special kind of scorn

By Maura Judkis

Oct. 19, 2020 at 3:00 a.m. PDT

The humorist David Sedaris, considering the psychology of the undecided voter, once envisioned a scenario on an airplane. A flight attendant comes through the cabin offering passengers a choice of two meals: chicken, or a ”platter of s--- with bits of broken glass in it.”

“To be undecided in this election,” he wrote, “is to pause​ for a moment and then ask how the chick​en is cooked.”

Sedaris was writing about the choice between then-Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John McCain in 2008 — a bitter election cycle that looks impossibly serene in retrospect. This year, many people see the choice as something like chicken (boiled, unseasoned) vs. flying the plane into a mountainside.

How could anyone not be able to make up their mind between that guy and that guy?

Yes, they are both elderly White men. But Donald Trump and Joe Biden have pitched voters on very different visions of America — different ideas about its history and its future, about justice and mercy, about the truth and how one figures it out, about how a president (or, really, a person) should behave.

Neither candidate is a mystery: Biden has been on Washington’s main stage for nearly half a century, and Trump’s first term has felt about that long. What’s left to decide?

“To be undecided in 2020, to me, you literally would have to be on an ice floe,” says Tom Nichols, a national security professor and senior adviser for the Lincoln Project. “If you’re just coming back from an Antarctic research station, I would understand.”

Undecided voters are the butt of jokes. But they also tend to be venerated — by media, by campaigns — as freethinkers, tough customers, keepers of a rarefied common sense that exists above the partisan tug-of-war. They are granted special audiences with candidates, who must persuade them personally while other Undecideds look on. They are, says Nichols, “The prized unicorn in the political menagerie.”

In 2020, they’re the “mentally impaired unicorns,” said Stephen Colbert on a recent episode of “The Late Show.”

With so much on the line, the Undecideds have become more mystifying — and frustrating — than ever.

Nobody believes they are real.

Oh, and everyone hates them.


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by Anonymousreply 58110/19/2020

“It’s like you just want to shake them. What’s wrong with you? Do you not see what’s happening here?” says Trish Collins, a 54-year-old nurse and Biden voter from Unionville, Conn. “The size of the rock that you have to be living under to not know what’s going on in this country right now. I mean, there are no rocks that big.”

“If people actually knew the truth, there would be no question,” says Brandon Straka, a Trump supporter and founder of #WalkAway, a group aimed at getting Democrats to vote Trump. He attributes undecided voters’ ambivalence on the mainstream media.

Tim Michaels, 50, a consultant in Portland, Ore., blames it on stubbornness — particularly among Bernie Sanders supporters who refuse to commit to Biden. “They’re trying to pretend as though they’re deliberative, rather than idiots,” says Michaels.

“I feel that undecided voters are out of touch with what is at stake,” says Eden Dranger, a 33-year-old television writer and Biden voter in Los Angeles. She recently tweeted: “If you ever feel stupid, just remember that there’s still undecided voters.”

Was it always this way?

Not necessarily. You might recall Ken Bone, a moustached man in a red Izod sweater. The undecided Bone appeared at a town-hall debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton, asking a question about energy policy, and charmed viewers with his gentle, genial presence. He became an unlikely folk hero. People wrote him songs and dressed as him for Halloween (one company put together a “Sexy Ken Bone” costume). Bobby Moynihan played him on “Saturday Night Live.”

This year, when Bone reemerged in a Newsweek article (undecided, once again!), Ryan Zaharako, a 42-year-old marketing copywriter and Biden supporter in Phoenix, tweeted last week that Bone and other undecideds are “a special kind of moron.” It got more than 11,000 likes. Zaharako told The Washington Post he feels a little bad about the mean tweet, but given the life-or-death stakes he sees in this election for many people — especially people of color and immigrants — he thinks a harsh tone is justified.

Frank Luntz thinks undecided voters are just convenient scapegoats, especially for nervous liberals looking for someplace to put their overflowing vitriol toward the president. Luntz, a Republican political consultant, knows the Undecideds better than anyone. He runs focus groups with undecided voters, soliciting their reactions after presidential debates.

And, like a passenger on Sedaris’s proverbial plane, “All I get is s---,” he says.

From critics, that is, who think his panelists are full of it. Luntz thinks that’s an unfortunate sign of the times.

“One of the problems in America is that we used to celebrate those who weigh all the issues, who weigh all the attributes, and make a careful and informed decision,” he says. Now, “We condemn them because they haven’t joined us in our declaration of who we support.”


by Anonymousreply 58210/19/2020

While I can see an argument to be made that he should give up his hopes in MN, there has been no recent poll, including GOP internal polls, that would give any confidence to either side in OH.

by Anonymousreply 58310/19/2020

Is that what the Undecideds have been doing? Carefully weighing the issues, all the way down to the wire? Greg Shugar, 47, of Boca Raton, Fla., says the undecided people he knows think of themselves as apolitical. They’re not waiting on answers to policy questions. “If you are curious about what’s going on,” says Shugar, “you are not undecided.”

As for the Undecideds he sees at the televised town halls, Shugar doesn’t believe they’re actually undecided. And it’s true that some undecided voters are more decided than they let on. The conservative Washington Free Beacon reported last week that an audience of so-called Undecideds at an NBC town hall had previously declared support for Biden on MSNBC. And Luntz himself recently called out a member of his focus group who seemed heavily pro-Trump.

“I don’t believe that it’s possible that you could vote for Joe Biden, even though you said it in the screener,” Luntz told her, during the Zoom session. “I’m going to challenge you right now, I don’t think you were honest in your application to come into this focus group . . . You’ve got to be honest because it makes people like me look bad, and it makes the polling profession look bad.”

According to the polling profession, undecided voters comprise 2 to 8 percent of the electorate this year, depending who’s doing the polling. That’s much less than in 2016, when the Undecideds were 13 percent of the voting public by November.

So yes, they do exist. And some think Decideds should consider being a bit more diplomatic.

“The more attacking I feel from one side, it pushes me away from that candidate,” says Samantha Thomas, 32, of Cape May, N.J. “Sway me, and do it kindly. You catch more flies with honey.”

People “cannot believe that I’m undecided, and it pisses me off,” says Kurt Malz, 61, a boat salesman in Tampa. Malz voted for Trump in 2016, but has been turned off by his temperament over the last four years. But he distrusts Biden, “a career politician.” He consumes media on the left and right, has voted for Democrats and Republicans — he even voted for Ralph Nader in 2000, in Florida (no regrets). “I believe that I’m intelligent enough,” he says. “I’m asking a lot of questions. There’s a lot of things I don’t like. And and I’ve not gotten that aha moment, you know?”

Jon, a 38-year-old from North Carolina in Luntz’s focus group, requested to go by his first name because he runs a company with his family name in it, and feared harassment. He works in a conservative industry, but has liberal friends, and has experienced such animosity from both sides that he avoids telling people he is undecided.

“At least if you pick one side, you’re with roughly half the population. But if you sit in the middle, then everybody’s mad,” he says.

“It is like needing to go to the bathroom and your choices are the men’s bathroom or the women’s,” Jon says. “You can’t just stand there and go in your pants.”

Indeed, decisions will be made. But Undecideds might not be the decisive factor.

When there are fewer undecided voters, it can reduce the chance of a last-minute surprise. When campaigns have fewer people to persuade, they can focus on their base instead. The winning side might not be the one that sways more Undecideds but the one that gets their Decideds to the polls, says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

“There’s a greater incentive for campaigns to just move on and find other groups of people who are already supportive of them,” says Miringoff.

In any case, Undecideds still have a couple more weeks. America’s most famous undecided voter has made his decision: Ken Bone has announced he will be voting for Libertarian Party candidate Jo Jorgensen, making him the most hated kind of voter of all: a third-party voter.

by Anonymousreply 58410/19/2020

R578, because Stepien, Trump's campaign director, has already said that the paths to a Trump victory don't include Minnesota.

[quote]Stepien has described to some colleagues that he sees at least three pathways to 270 electoral votes.

[quote]Stepien tells them the "easy part” is winning Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Iowa and Maine’s second congressional district. From there, the first pathway, and the one he views as most likely, is for Trump to win Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

[quote]His second pathway would be for Trump to win Arizona, North Carolina and Michigan.

[quote]And pathway three — the one Stepien views as least likely of the options — does not include Arizona but involves Trump winning North Carolina, Michigan and Nevada.

[quote]Those states are where Trump will be spending the vast bulk of his time between now and Nov. 3, and where the Trump campaign is spending most of its money.

[quote]The states in none of Stepien's three scenarios: Wisconsin or Minnesota.

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by Anonymousreply 58510/19/2020

R585, but that mean they need Ohio, and where is the confidence in winning that state come from?

by Anonymousreply 58610/19/2020

[quote]A lot of DLers accuse anyone express any anxiety for the Biden campaign as trolls seeking to undermine confidence.

There's a difference between expressing anxiety and doing what you and the guy at R561 have been doing: posting over 100 times EACH in this thread ALONE, constantly telling people to worry, that their votes are being manipulated, that their computers are getting hacked by Boris, that anything that looks like a good sign for Dems is actually bad and here's why... and then you say something that doesn't make a lot of sense, but is meant to make people think all is lost.

by Anonymousreply 58710/19/2020

R586 may be a foreigner.

by Anonymousreply 58810/19/2020

Talk to Stepien, R586. He seems to think it's easy.

Honestly, I don't know why Trump is pulling out of Ohio. Minnesota is an easy call: he badly needs those resources elsewhere and it's pretty clear that the state has moved out of his reach. But Trump really does need Ohio, so I don't know what's going on there. If he's just that broke, that would, of course, be a real problem for him.

by Anonymousreply 58910/19/2020

R580 didn't read the article lol.

by Anonymousreply 59010/19/2020

Trump is always pulling out of ad markets, I suspect because the money is having to go to other expenses or it's going into his pockets.

by Anonymousreply 59110/19/2020

Actually, R590, I did. I stand by my summary.

by Anonymousreply 59210/19/2020

R592, I take it reading comprehension required additional help at Princeton Review?

by Anonymousreply 59310/19/2020

Not at all, r593. Does repeatedly making up shit work in those other forums you frequent?

by Anonymousreply 59410/19/2020

These unsourced figures on early votes from FL and NC, claiming that Democrats are losing ground or whatever, don't seem to be backed up by the statistics I've seen. Here's Florida, for example, with registered Ds still outnumbering registered Rs by half as much again (and independent and unaffiliated voters behind both).

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by Anonymousreply 59510/19/2020

Nate talks about whether Republicans should be worried about current Dem mail-in/early voting.

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by Anonymousreply 59610/19/2020

Here's the current figures from NC, where registered Ds have returned more than twice as many ballots as registered Rs . I'm not saying this situation is guaranteed to hold through election day, of course, but these are the figures we're looking at now.

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by Anonymousreply 59710/19/2020

And that's the thing, r597: nobody is arguing for complacency or arguing that Trump is guaranteed to lose. All we're saying is that the available data right now look pretty good for Biden. I have no idea why some concern trolls are insisting otherwise other than, well, they're concern trolls and that's what they do.

by Anonymousreply 59810/19/2020

Trump campaign is gambling that, even though it will be close, that Ohio is a lock for them. They need every $ to work on the states that are critical to their "path"... AZ, NV, PA, FL, NC. They may or may not be "broke", but the calculation to pull out of OH is the same either way.

by Anonymousreply 59910/19/2020

From today (link is too long).

The week in polls: Trump erases Biden's bounce in Florida, Biden gains in Georgia

William Cummings


... They have found Biden still holding a commanding lead nationally (though down slightly from last week) and leading in 10 of 12 swing states. But Trump regained a slight polling average lead in Ohio and ate a big chunk out of Biden's leads in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Trump also erased Biden's gains in Florida from last week, which some Democrats had hoped signaled their nominee was pulling away in the crucial Sunshine State.


by Anonymousreply 60010/19/2020

My larger point, R598, is that the concern trolls upthread are actually using inaccurate figures.

by Anonymousreply 60110/19/2020
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