Mighty Joe Biden Continues to Lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin Part V

Previous thread:

Thanks OP.

Harry Enten:

Arizona is a massive complication in Trump's re-election bid. If Biden carries the state (and he is ahead and there is no real history of the polls in AZ underestimating GOP), it likely means Trump needs to win 2 of MI, PA, & WI. Not just 1.

R3, And he is not winning WI or MI but they will cheat their way to try in WI.

Steve Kornacki breaking it down. Trump will win. Those states will be close but will go to Trump again. Trust me.

Ugh. Our country is sick to still be behind a guy like Trump. How high is people’s threshold for assholes?

Dave Wasserman says Trump may be cooked in Nebraska's 2nd District:

This is far from the worst part of it, but the district-level polls we're seeing suggest Trump is no longer competitive in Omaha's #NE02 anyway.

They froze to death for nothing in Nebraska. Sad!

R5, that is not what Steve Kornacki said. Did you think we wouldn’t click the link to check? He basically laid out a next to impossible scenario for Dump to be re-elected.

[quote]Trump will win. Those states will be close but will go to Trump again. Trust me.

Considering that you've been pulling this shit, with no data to back it up, for some time: no, there is no reason to trust you and every reason to consider you a particularly inept troll.

Dave Wasserman on Pennsylvania:

A pretty clear sign Biden is well ahead in Bucks Co.'s #PA01 (a district Clinton won by 1% in '16): the D's closing message is that she's endorsed by Biden, while the R's closing message is that he's been endorsed by unions & environmental groups.

So far, the pattern is consistent in scores of district-level polls that Trump is running well behind his '16 margins in Bucks, Harrisburg/York, Allegheny/Beaver, NEPA and the Lehigh Valley.

Where does he make up for that in the rest of PA? Answer: he probably doesn't.

Exactly

[quote]Steve Kornacki breaking it down. Trump will win. Those states will be close but will go to Trump again. Trust me.

Let's see what else this person has said, shall we?

[quote]I’m getting 2016 deja vu.

[quote]I already know Trump is going to win so I’m not going nuts. I said this would happen the day before he was elected 4 years ago. Once he got in he was not leaving.

[quote]Trump will be re-elected, Republicans will hold the senate and Democrats will hold the house. Nothing will change.

[quote]Pennsylvania Post-Debate Poll: Trump 48% Biden 48% Jorgensen 2% @trafalgar_group

[quote]PA will probably go to Trump again sadly. I hope I’m wrong though.

[quote]It’s pretty bad that Biden may lose his own state.

[quote]Trump will win Florida and PA.

[quote]The head of the Lincoln Project said the the race will be even closer than most people will believe.

[quote]He can win again thanks to 4 years of daily brainwashing and fuck ups with mail in ballots.

[quote]Yougov called Brexit and the 2016 election correctly.

[quote]I don’t see Biden winning either [Florida or Pennsylvania].

[quote]Most people are voting early so polls don’t mean shit at this point.

I do believe we have a concern troll.

I already tweeted about this earlier but it deserves another one, Broward turnout looks fantastic so far, very impressed

[QUOTE] A pretty clear sign Biden is well ahead in Bucks Co.'s #PA01 (a district Clinton won by 1% in '16): the D's closing message is that she's endorsed by Biden

Joe Biden has massive coattails in these states with a positive approval rating in all three while Republican candidates are running away from Trump.

@umichvoter99 Broward is the bluest of Florida’s 9 democratic leaning counties. Go Broward !

Joe Biden is the only major presidential candidate in modern history to have his personal likability ratings increase throughout the campaign

[quote] He basically laid out a next to impossible scenario for Dump to be re-elected.

It’s not impossible and PA, Texas and Florida will go red.

[quote] Considering that you've been pulling this shit, with no data to back it up, for some time: no, there is no reason to trust you and every reason to consider you a particularly inept troll.

We’ll bump this on election night.

Oh, do, by all means, r19.

I have a lot of trolls blocked in this thread.

Me too bro

Cook Political Report: Texas Moves to Toss Up

October 28, 2020

Disinformation Moves From Social Networks to Texts

Last week, a political action committee called the American Principles Project unveiled a new video on Twitter falsely claiming that Democratic presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden Jr. supported sex changes for 8-year-olds.

Since Friday, a similar video has also appeared on Facebook as many as 100,000 times — primarily in Michigan, a swing state in the Nov. 3 election.

What has been harder to pinpoint is how widely the video has been spreading through text messages.

Though companies like Facebook and Twitter have developed tools for tracking and policing disinformation on their social networks, texting activity is largely a free-for-all that receives little scrutiny from tech companies and government regulators.

“There is no way to audit this,” said Jacob Gursky, a research associate at the University of Texas at Austin. “Organizations are just collecting cellphone numbers from data brokers and mass-texting people.”

The video circulated in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as part of a coordinated texting campaign, according to a study by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin. Over the weekend, it reached a reporter who covers online disinformation for the news site Protocol. The reporter had a Pennsylvania cellphone number.

Twisting the meaning of Mr. Biden’s statements during a recent “town hall” event — which condemned discrimination against children who identify as transgender but did not address sex changes — the campaign was a high-profile example of increasingly widespread efforts to distribute disinformation through text messages.

“During a recent town hall, Joe Biden endorsed giving 8- to 10-year-olds sex change treatments,” the texts read. “This is way too extreme for me. I can’t support him.”

The texts tracked by Mr. Gursky and his fellow researchers said they were sent by the American Principles Project, but they referred to the organization only as “the APP PAC.” The texts purport to arrive from a “Democratic volunteer.”

The American Principles Project did not respond to a request for comment.

Data on texting campaigns is hard to come by. But Robokiller, a company that blocks automated phone calls and texts, said Americans received 2.6 billion political text messages in September, a 400 percent increase since June. The company estimated that since June, Republication-affiliated organizations have sent roughly six times more messages than their Democratic counterparts.

The Texas researchers said texting campaigns are in part a reaction to increased scrutiny on social media services. As Facebook and Twitter have pushed disinformation networks off their services, the networks have resurfaced on private texting apps like Signal, Telegram and WhatsApp, where they can continue operate without being monitored.

Private disinformation networks are prevalent in places like India and Mexico, the researchers said. But they are becoming more common in certain parts of the United States, such as southern Florida, where apps like WhatsApp are popular.

The "Trump's Gonna Win!" TROLL here also is all over any BLM or civil rights threads, shrieking that Blacks are trash and will bring about Trump's re-election.

new CNN likely-voter national poll:

Biden 54%

Trump 42%

I thought the days where a presidential candidate could get 54% in a poll were well behind us.

I predicted last week that the 538 weighted average would be +6 Biden. I am happy to say that I was wrong. It's a very healthy +8.9 Biden.

There's no way Trump can win in a race where Texas has become a "toss-up" less than a week before Election Day.

"ou think we wouldn’t click the link to check? He basically laid out a next to impossible scenario for Dump to be re-elected."

Sounds like 2016.

R27, the CNN national poll does seem a little generous for Biden, but it's the overall trendline that counts.

Ditto R21

There have been a couple of pieces over the last days suggesting that the opposite of the "shy Trump voter" -- basically that people who supported Trump are now embarrassed to admit how much he'd duped them, so they wear their MAGA hats but will vote for Biden.

And that Vangies, having gotten Aunt Lydia onto the Supreme Court are going to feel that they've done their duty and will not vote for a man they morally despise.

Both sets may not vote for Biden, but rather, may just stay home.

Meanwhile, in the ratfucker section of the Arizona Hatefest:

[quote] That's Nigel Farage standing next to Senators Rand Paul and Mike Lee in the front row of Trump's rally in Arizona

New Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald LV National Poll

Biden up 53-39%

FLORIDA Biden 49% (+2) Trump 47% . ARIZONA Biden 48% (+2) Trump 46%

@Reuters/@Ipsos, LV, 10/21-27

He took 2 days off this past week. Trump is doing 5 battleground events a day. He’s rallying his rural base to a win. I’m sick over it but it’ll be dejavu like 2016!

LOL KANYE GETTING 3%

Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MNpoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows Biden with a lead: 48.0% @JoeBiden, 44.8% @realDonaldTrump, 3.3% @kanyewest 2.0% @Jorgensen4POTUS, 0.8% Other, 1.1% Und. See Report:

Congressional Ballot Polling:

YouGov/Economist (Oct 27): Dem: 52% GOP: 42%

CNN/SSRS (Oct 26): Dem: 54% GOP: 42%

USC Dornsife (Oct 26): Dem: 52% GOP: 44%

Rethink (Oct 20): Dem: 48% GOP: 42%

GBAO (Oct 19): Dem: 51% GOP: 39%

Stop posting Trafalgar trolls.

SCOTUS ruled tonight that PA ballots can arrive three days after Election Day and still be counted.

HOWEVER

Alito, Gorsuch and Thomas said that your votes could be thrown out later once the court has thought things through. Justice Barrett or Justice Kavanaugh—or both!—could join the trio to take the case after the election. And those late-arriving ballots could be tossed after the fact.

[quote]I thought the days where a presidential candidate could get 54% in a poll were well behind us.

So did just about everyone. It remains to be seen whether that will actually come true.

Gorsuch will follow Roberts me think on all election cases siding with the left.

[quote]LOL KANYE GETTING 3%

Okay, now Trafalgar is just trolling us.

[quote]Trump is doing 5 battleground events a day. He’s rallying his rural base to a win. I’m sick over it but it’ll be dejavu like 2016!

And the more of those events he does, the more people are tired of him and disgusted by him. I hope he continues that behavior until election day.

R45, I was reading somewhere similar study that I find that his rallies actually accomplish the opposite. People are tired and annoyed now, particularly independent voters.

David Axelrod:

Another significant finding fron @washingtonpost/ABC poll that should calm the fears of jittery Dems and chill @realDonaldTrump: @JoeBiden is winning likely voters who say they either did not support Clinton or Trump in 2016 or did not vote that year by about 2 to 1.

R41 that’s the plan. Kavanaugh doesn’t fool me. They’re up to something.

[quote]And the more of those events he does, the more people are tired of him and disgusted by him.

Yep.

The SC rules now saying your ballot in PA will be counted if it arrives after Election Day. They’re trying to get people comfortable so people say “oh I can’t wait then” and then BAM at the 11th hour they say nope! Nevermind. You’re shit out of luck. They’re playing the game right now. Don’t be fooled. Vote. In. Person.

Nevada update from Jon Ralston:

NEWS: The early voting blog is updated with new statewide NV numbers.

Models show Biden's lead in the state has narrowed, but Trump would still need to be winning indies by about 15 to be ahead, which is highly unlikely.

Rurals helping GOP a lot.

[quote] I predicted last week that the 538 weighted average would be +6 Biden. I am happy to say that I was wrong. It's a very healthy +8.9 Biden.

1) I can’t believe it’s Wednesday “next week” already. Wow.

2) I knew you’d be wrong, and that’s why I called you on it when you made that prediction. I’m glad you were wrong, too—you said the media would make the case that Trump had rehab’d his image at the third debate, and that same media narrative would cause a tightening in the polls. That scenario was always half-cocked.

I plan to told-ya-so every person I’ve ever argued with online about this election, this time next week. I have it all bookmarked and ready to go.

And yeah, lots of trolls in this thread. I’m missing a lot of posts (thank god).

NEW Election related SCOTUS ruling:

he Supreme Court on Wednesday voted 5-3 to reject an effort by the Trump campaign and Republicans to reverse a six-day mail ballot due date extension in North Carolina.

The ruling was a major blow for Trump, who polls show to be locked in a tight race with Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the crucial battleground state, a must-win for the president’s reelection chances.

The court’s three most conservative justices — Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Neil Gorsuch — would have granted the request. Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who joined the court Tuesday, did not participate in consideration of the case.

R52, yes indeed you are the victor. I was wrong. Fair play. Congrats.

These rulings feel like bullshit. We’ll see what happens when Amy Covid Barrett starts weighing in. You can bet that the Republicans will keep pushing cases to the Court.

[quote] He took 2 days off this past week. Trump is doing 5 battleground events a day. He’s rallying his rural base to a win. I’m sick over it but it’ll be dejavu like 2016!

Yet another troll cunt to block. Bye!

[quote]He’s rallying his rural base to a win. I’m sick over it but it’ll be dejavu like 2016!

Yes, I'm sure you're crying into your pillow every night.

[quote]Alito, Gorsuch and Thomas said that your votes could be thrown out later once the court has thought things through. Justice Barrett or Justice Kavanaugh—or both!—could join the trio to take the case after the election. And those late-arriving ballots could be tossed after the fact.

Joy Reid was just on her show talking about this ruling. She was literally begging people in PA: "DO NOT MAIL YOUR BALLOT! Take it in person. It might not get there and might not be counted if you mail it now!"

While that's good news, R53, we have four justices on the Supreme Court who are eager to overturn the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court and who are absolutely prepared to revisit the decision after the election, with the newest Justice sitting in. That's why Pennsylvania is separating out those ballots so that they would be prepared should the Supreme Court rule the other way when the Pennsylvania Republican Party challenges it again.

[quote]“That does not mean, however, that the state court decision must escape our review,” Alito said, while noting the indication the court had already received from Pennsylvania officials that they will keep separate the ballots that arrive during the extended time period in question.

[quote]He said that segregating those ballots will make “targeted” relief possible if the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately reverses the state court’s decision, and he encouraged the Republican to reach out to the U.S. Supreme Court if they’re not “satisfied” with how the election officials are carrying out the separation of those ballots.

What those conservative Justices are doing is dangerous, as that could mean that election decisions, no matter how onerous, unreasonable, or restrictive, could not be overruled by state courts.

R59, that might be true BUT they could have just easily made that decision NOW. Nothing stopped them to do it. That's just a sign that there is a crack in the GOP majority on that panel and it could go either way. That's all we have now until something changes.

I still think Roberts will try to avoid involving court in the ultimate decision making to avoid blowback and will drag with him one of Gorsuch or Kavanaugh to help him to do it.

R60, they can't make the decision now, because Roberts refused to go along. The earlier decision was 4 to 4 and the deadlock left the state court decision intact.

What they're hoping for is that Barrett will join the conservative wing and make it a 5 to 4 decision to overrule the Pennsylvania court. If the election is close and it comes down to Pennsylvania, I have very little doubt that they will be fighting tooth and nail to rule against counting ballots, in order to increase Trump's chances of a victory.

If it's a blow-out election, either nationally or in Pennsylvania or both, then it's moot and it's unlikely that anyone would push for a new ruling.

For now, I think people are doing the right thing: skip mailing your ballot and take it directly to a polling location.

[quote] I still think Roberts will try to avoid involving court in the ultimate decision making to avoid blowback and will drag with him one of Gorsuch or Kavanaugh to help him to do it.

My friend who is a legal scholar says exactly the same thing.

For the concern trolls who last week were wringing their hands because RCP's "Top Battle grounds (2020 vs. 2016)" numbers seemed to favor Trump, do look again.

(For the record, it's still a stupid thing to fixate on, regardless of which candidate it favors. We tabulate votes on a state level, not on a multi-battleground-state level.)

[quote]The SC rules now saying your ballot in PA will be counted if it arrives after Election Day. They’re trying to get people comfortable so people say “oh I can’t wait then” and then BAM at the 11th hour they say nope! Nevermind. You’re shit out of luck. They’re playing the game right now. Don’t be fooled. Vote. In. Person.

People will get schizo from having to check every day what SC has or hasn't reversed WHILE they're voting! This is the height of disfunctionality. I know it's by design but this shit should be figured out before the start of elections by states, so when people start to vote they have clear, fixed and predictable rules.

Concern trolls and traumatized H-Hivers on Datalounge R63? Do tell!!!

Come the fuck on nobody is voting Kanye. Where the fuck is he? On an island with the rest of the trash Klan.

They’re the hidden Kanye voter, R66. Too shy to yap to the pollsters how much they yearn to have Yeezy in the White House. Only Trafalgar could find them.

I bet all those republicans who raced around to get him on the ballot and spent money on his sad ass campaign feel like total shitheads. Was he suppose to hold a rally or at least a few Sunday services in the states where he was on the ballot

BREAKING:

New Franklin and Marshall poll of Pennsylvania

Biden +6

National GE: Biden 55% (+14) Trump 41%

@JLPartnersPolls/@Independent, LV, 10/26-28

77.MILLION.VOTES

And that's without updates from CA, GA, NC, TX, and VA (the latter three will be posted early tomorrow morning)

#Latest @TheEconomist Forecast:

Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 96% Trump 4%

Chance of winning the most votes: Biden >99% Trump <1%

Estimated electoral college votes: Biden 356 Trump 182

National GE, Among College Students: Biden 69% (+48) Trump 21%

@Chegg/@CollegeInsights Tracking Poll

MICHIGAN Biden 52% (+10) Trump 42% Jorgensen 3% Hawkins 0% . #MIsen: Peters (D-inc) 52% (+9) James (R) 43% Willis 1% Squier 0%

Mitchell Research/@MIRSnews, LV, 10/25-27

NEW @surveyusa/@KSTP poll of MINNESOTA...

Biden (D): 47% (+5) Trump (R): 42% Undecided: 6% Third-parties: 5%

Wow, 7 replies in a row from trolls I have blocked.

Which replies?

In Texas, total turnout among college educated white voters has now surpassed their total turnout in the 2016 general election.

Non-college white turnout is lagging behind their overall 2016 vote by more than 1.1 million votes.

Same for me r76, replies 69-75 were blocked. Trolls are out in force tonight

17,531,153 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted. That's over 25% of ballots cast, and rising every day. It's reasonable to assume that close to 40 million voters who didn't turn out in 2016 will vote in this election.

Thanks for posting that R78 and R80. I don't know what was wrong with them 4 years ago, but it's nice that these people are showing up now. Go Joe go!!

I have R78 and R80 blocked for trolling, R81. Just FYI.

About 2,500 people walk with NBA star Chris Paul to an early-voting site at Winston-Salem State University

Let's run that score up! Run it up so high that it demoralizes every last MAGAt, deplorable and trumptard in the goddam universe!

RUN THAT TABLE, JOE! RUN IT!

Listen to Pod Save today.

Already talking with attorney and bankers about transferring stocks that pay hefty dividends to a foreign corporation or LLC in order to offset Bidens taxes. They say business has been booming with clients doing the same thing. Grandpa can tax all he wants... Some of us aren't going to pay. Fuck Biden!

Anxious, R86? Is your god looking wobbly?

And fuck you r86

R86 is deplorable

I voted democrat today in a battleground state. It felt so good. I voted straight democratic.

Eat it, deplorable scum!!

Florida Dem VBM Return rate at 72.4% statewide

Where is the return rate highest?

Sarasota 85% (!!!!!!) Sumter 82% Lee 81% Charlotte 81% Indian River 80% Monroe 79% Collier 79%

[quote]17,531,153 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted. That's over 25% of ballots cast, and rising every day. It's reasonable to assume that close to 40 million voters who didn't turn out in 2016 will vote in this election.

This is such a huge story! Remember that Trump won the EC in 2016 by under 100k votes.

These voters are not included in the Likely Voters models.

The only deplorable that I have to interact with was in a real pissy mood today. Every little thing was setting him off.

Does this count as an official tracking poll? He seriously had a breakdown today. Like a complete meltdown.

My partner just told me a similar story, R93. A man he works with flipped the fuck out on him and another guy. On and on, with FOX News talking points. They didn't know if he was off his meds or what.

Was there something on Tucky's show to trigger them last night?

Huh, there was some angry energy at the rural Safeway today, aggressive guys with masks starting to go below their noses again. Tuck must have sent up the Fat signal.

I don’t know r94 but he was absolutely humming just a couple days ago when ABC was being confirmed.

And then today he was on a rampage that ended in a rage crescendo. It was so cringe and embarrassing for him.

[quote] basically that people who supported Trump are now embarrassed to admit how much he'd duped them, so they wear their MAGA hats but will vote for Biden.

That makes no sense.

(Fun article about “the youth.” BTS, K-Pop stans are fighting QAnon and MAGA on social media.)

No One Fights QAnon Like the Global Army of K-Pop Superfans

BTS stans built the trolling blueprint for 4chan types, and they’ve proven they can disrupt it.

Women that are married and dependent on their deplorable husbands can not say, out loud, that they are voting for Biden. Their husbands will beat them and not allow them to vote.

Same goes for the college aged dependents. They are the millions of silent supporters.

If Biden loses PA but flips Wisconsin and Michigan, he can get over the line with Arizona and NE-2 for a 270-268, both of which are looking a little more stable than PA

If Dump wins PA his chances catapult to 67 in 100 (Source: 538)

The cheating this year will focus on Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

Biden is a non starter here in Wisconsin.

Trump is a non starter here in West Virginia.

Can I have the troll job??

[quote]LOL KANYE GETTING 3%

Trafalgar believes strongly in the Shy Kanye Voter demographic.

Crazy, R93, my partner works in a factory and his direct supervisor has been really pissy all week and erupted Wednesday evening as well. He's been known to stomp into the break room and turn off "Family Feud" and turn on Fox News, though he's been told not to.

Maybe the Omaha rally fiasco really bothered them? Maybe the "lost FedEx documents" makes them realize no Comey letter is coming this year?

R79, the guy you blocked posts mostly polls in these threads, but he was a huge "being mean to Chris Pratt shows how intolerant Democrats are" troll last week, so that's probably where you ran into him.

[quote]I still think Roberts will try to avoid involving court in the ultimate decision making to avoid blowback and will drag with him one of Gorsuch or Kavanaugh to help him to do it.

I agree, and I suspect it'll be Gorsuch, who may not actually need that much dragging to go along with Roberts. Kavanaugh won't want to do it because he is still in revenge mode for being held responsible for his actions, but over time he may calm down. Or he may go Clarence Thomas and get worse and worse as the years go on.

R103 Lol, right!

Btw- did you hear Biden is up 80-18 in Wyoming so don’t bother voting, republicans. Wyoming is lost.

R108, Joe is down 30 points.

75 million votes cast. Are the polls of people who still haven't voted or both?

R110, latest polls are mostly LVs which are in this case who already voted. There are very few polls who are polling As or RVs.

President (Florida) Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 45% Jorgensen (L) 1% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

78 million early votes cast

President (Michigan) Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 41% Jorgensen (L) 1% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

President (Georgia) Biden (D) 48% Trump (R) 44% Jorgensen (L) 1% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

President (North Carolina) Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 44% Jorgensen (L) 1% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

President (Ohio) Trump (R) 44% Biden (D) 43% Jorgensen (L) 2% Hawkins (G) 1% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

President (Pennsylvania) Biden (D) 44% Trump (R) 39% Jorgensen (L) 9% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

President (Texas) Biden (D) 51% Trump (R) 42% Jorgensen (L) 1% Hawkins (G) 1% 10/17-10/20 by Citizen Data 1000 LV

EARLY VOTING OLYMPICS" BY % PARTICIPATION, 10/29 EDITION (Gold) HI (99% of 2016 vote total already cast) (Silver) TX (91%) (Bronze) MT (89%) Honorable mention: NC and GA (84%) HI almost certain to be first state to exceed 2016 turnout.

"EARLY VOTING OLYMPICS" BY VOLUME,10/29 EDITION (Gold) 8.5M in CA (60% of 2016 vote total already cast) (Silver) 8.2M in TX (91%) (Bronze) 7.3M in FL (78%) Honorable mention: 3.9M in NC (83.5%). CA is ahead of TX for now likely bc TX updates not finished posting

@KevinCate

·

18h

GOP turnout advantage in Miami-Dade is still increasing. 55% of MD GOPs have voted vs. 49% of

@FlaDems

. That's compared to 48% GOP turnout statewide and 51% Dem turnout. That's 39k extra votes Dems would have right now if we were just matching GOP turnout there.

[quote]78 million early votes cast

That's over half of the 137M votes cast in 2016. Incredible.

Yesterday I stood 2 hours in line to vote in MARYLAND. Which is as BLUE a state as you can get. So why didn't I turn around to go home? Knowing that BIDEN was going to win here anyway. Because this election is different.

It's not about political party or social issue. It's about life and death. As in: if someone were out to kill you, what would you do to stop him?

So to stop him: sometimes you have to go to war (Adolph Hitler), sometimes you have to kill him off (Osama bin Laden), and sometimes you have to vote him out (Donald Trump).

NBC/Marist poll of Florida Biden 51% (+3 from Sept) Trump 47% (-1) Oct 25-27, +/- 4.4%

NBC/Marist poll of Florida Biden 51% (+3 from Sept) Trump 47% (-1) Oct 25-27, +/- 4.4%

That Citizen Data is really crazy poll. Biden +10? I wish it was true. But I am happy with Marist numbers. I trust them.

Who hasn’t voted yet, and what are you waiting for!?

A new University of Texas Dallas poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump national in the presidential race, 56% to 44%.

There is a massive shift beginning on RCP tables towards Biden today as well. They finally gave up.

Biden isn’t winning Florida by 4 points. The winner will probably win by a point and you can bet that the results of Florida will end up in the courts.

I think it’s more likely that Biden wins GA than FL. FL seems to be the epicenter of deplorables.

Today through Sunday will be a polling avalanche. Buckle up!

Trump was just handed a huge win with the GDP number. If he can stay on an economy message for the next 5 days I think it’s over for Biden. Dropping this GDP number this close to the election is just as bad as the Comey letter. This is so scary.

Americans are dying right and left but at least we sold some houses!

Try again, Natasha.

Right, R133.

R133, BULLSHIT!!! The big jump in that GDP number follows a record-breaking drop in GDP in Qs before. He is done nothing. Nothing has changed. Get your facts straight, Irina.

I wish some of you would stop posting all of these junk polls. If it is less than a B, then don't post it. Or make it clear that it's junk pull by putting the grades next to each one.

Remember when Biden was up double digits over the summer and the yard sign trolls were saying the race is A LOT closer than the polls were saying. Remember how DL kept telling us we were wrong? Now the pundits are calling the race here a nail biter. Yeah, gotta love DL.

Whether we win or lose it, PA is now officially a trash state in mind. So many fucking uneducated racist deplorables. Such a waste of acreage.

Already had R133 on block and was shocked, shocked I tell you, to find him complaining about "the left" in other threads.

If this is such great news why is the stock market down 135 right now?

This is true, r139. The knickname, Pennsyltucky, is well earned.

I think there were a few bad earnings numbers today, r141.

The Economist has endorsed Joe Biden.

Thanks, R144. It's a nice endorsement.

When 538 talked about pole convergence last week, I didn't expect the national polls to converge upwards. They're all starting to lean towards Biden plus 12. Which seems ridiculously high to me.

It will be interesting to see what Rasmussen and tries to pull off this weekend. Who knows, maybe they'll give up the ghost and have Trump up 12.

This election has me so stressed/worried. This is by far the most stressed I've been over something that didn't involve my own personal life or business. You know what I mean? In a normal society, it's good to be invested and interested in an election, but not to the extent where I'm having trouble sleeping, and am distracted and upset about it during the day.

I think it's because Trump will fire the heads of the CIA and FBI, and install someone who's loyal to his interests, rather than the interests of the country. We lose yet more checks in a country based on checks and balances.

With the AG's office in his back pocket, as well as the CIA and the FBI, we're no longer the same country. We're suddenly Russia.

I'm praying to GOD Biden wins. If he doesn't, God help us all.

Why does anyone buy into 538’s poll grading? Did you ever read what it’s based on?

Why does anyone buy into 538’s poll grading? Did you ever read what it’s based on?

[quote] I'm praying to GOD Biden wins. If he doesn't, God help us all.

Spoiler: Trump will win.

[quote] Trump was just handed a huge win with the GDP number. If he can stay on an economy message for the next 5 days I think it’s over for Biden. Dropping this GDP number this close to the election is just as bad as the Comey letter. This is so scary.

😂😂😂😂😂😂 Get back to us at the end of next week R133. We’ll see how this “bombshell” worked out. Especially since 77 million people have already voted.

GDP my ass. Look at this curve. The infection rate is higher than it's ever been.

Also, yard sign up my peehole

[quote]Why does anyone buy into 538’s poll grading? Did you ever read what it’s based on?

I trust the two Nates, Wasserman and Bitecofer. If they say they're junk polls, then they are junk polls.

I'm voting for Biden as a vote against Trump. But, I'll admit that when I see this thread caption with 'mighty' followed by 'Joe Biden' I laugh.

New Telemundo poll:

[quote] But Biden is floundering with Cuban voters, a key Latino voting bloc in the state. According to the poll, Trump holds almost a 50 percentage point lead over Biden, 71% to 23% among Cuban voters.

Despicable but not unexpected. The "Cubans are white, so we love Trump" thing is still strong.

Student Voting Surges Despite Efforts to Suppress It

The coronavirus pandemic and new requirements in Republican-led states created voting obstacles for college students this year. Yet youth participation appears to be on the rise.

By Dan Levin

Oct. 29, 2020

Updated 9:50 a.m. ET

With many campus quads resembling ghost towns and childhood bedrooms serving as lecture halls, politically active college students have moved their get-out-the-vote efforts online, hosting debate watch parties on Zoom, recruiting poll workers over Instagram and encouraging students to post their voting plans on Snapchat.

Young voters, traditionally a difficult group for politicians to get to the polls, are showing rare levels of enthusiasm in this election, even as college students have faced new obstacles to casting their ballots — some stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, and others from elected officials seeking to impede college voting.

At Bard College in New York State, students sued to bring a polling station to campus. Residential advisers at the University of Pittsburgh used Zoom to register new voters. And at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, about 6,000 students have signed up as poll workers to help their fellow Badgers navigate some of the nation’s toughest voter identification laws.

“We’ve had to exhaust every possible option to continue energizing voters,” said Roderick Hart, a junior at Morehouse College in Atlanta.

“In the past, we had massive rallies and all these people walking around with clipboards registering kids to vote,” Mr. Hart, 20, said. “But now, social media is really our only way of connecting everybody at once, considering we’re not on campus.”

Despite the difficulties, efforts to mobilize the youth vote, along with greater accessibility through early-voting hours and mail-in ballot options, appear to be paying off, with potentially significant implications for races nationwide.

More than five million voters under 30 have already cast ballots for next week’s election, including nearly three million in 14 key states that could decide the presidency and control of the Senate, according to data compiled by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.

That is more than double the number of ballots cast by young voters at a similar point in the 2016 presidential election, mirroring an increase in early voting among all demographics because of coronavirus concerns. The early-voting numbers for young people are particularly notable in states such as Texas, where, by the end of last week, nearly two-thirds as many had cast early votes as the total number of young voters four years ago, according to Tufts researchers.

A national poll conducted by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School found that 63 percent of youth voters surveyed said they would “definitely be voting,” suggesting turnout similar to 2008, when enthusiasm for Barack Obama’s candidacy led to higher levels of youth voting than in any election since 1984.

Energized by issues like climate change and the Trump presidency, college students emerged as a crucial voting bloc in the 2018 midterms, when their turnout rate of 40.3 percent, according to the Tufts Institute for Democracy and Higher Education, was more than double the rate four years earlier.

Faced with those surging numbers among a voting group that leans heavily Democratic, Republican lawmakers in numerous states, including several battlegrounds, have taken actions that they said were intended to prevent voter fraud — including enacting restrictive ID rules and byzantine voter registration requirements — that have also made it more difficult for college students to cast ballots.

...

Elected officials have also moved to diminish the electoral power of campuses through redistricting, as well as by limiting early voting sites, purging voter rolls or refusing to permit polling stations on campus. And the logistics of the pandemic could alter where young people cast their ballots, potentially affecting races where candidates, typically Democrats, count on support from students living in their districts — but many of those students are now at home.

“Every aspect of students’ ability to vote is under attack,” said Maxim Thorne, managing director of the Andrew Goodman Foundation, a nonprofit group focused on protecting voting rights for young people. “You have to fight these battles on every front, whether you’re in a state as blue as New York or as red as Georgia.”

In New Hampshire, where six in 10 college students come from outside the state, a rate among the nation’s highest, a Republican-backed law took effect last fall requiring newly registered voters who drive to obtain an in-state driver’s license and auto registration, which can cost hundreds of dollars annually. The law passed after years of calls by state Republicans to clamp down on voting access for college students.

“They are kids voting liberal, voting their feelings, with no life experience,” the state’s Republican House speaker said in 2011 when discussing plans to tighten up voting requirements.

Republicans in North Carolina enacted voter ID requirements in 2018 that recognized student identification cards as valid but proved so cumbersome that large state universities were unable to comply. A later revision relaxed the rules, and a federal judge blocked the law in December, but confusion lingers.

“The thing that’s hard is, everybody’s like, ‘No I can’t vote today because I don’t have my ID with me,’ and you have to explain they don’t need that,” said Kate Fellman, executive director of You Can Vote, a nonpartisan group in North Carolina.

In Wisconsin, Republicans have imposed some of the toughest restrictions, including a requirement that IDs used for voting expire within two years, which invalidates most student IDs issued by four-year schools. The University of Wisconsin, which has around 40,000 students in Madison, created a second form of ID that complies with the voter law.

When the pandemic shuttered campus last spring, the school developed a digital version of the voter ID, and students can now print them out at campus polling sites.

Not all colleges are so enthusiastic about ensuring students can vote. Last month, the University of Georgia canceled plans for in-person voting on campus, citing concerns about social distancing and insufficient space during the pandemic.

After an uproar from student voting groups and local officials — who noted that the school had chosen to allow up to 23,000 fans to attend home football games — the university reversed course and agreed to house voting booths in the basketball arena.

Organizers who have relied on traditional canvassing on college campuses have turned to virtual options during the pandemic. Jess Scott, a senior at the University of Pittsburgh, and a fellow student mapped out a network of resident advisers across campus, asking them to host voter information sessions on Zoom with the undergraduate students in their dorms.

“We just came in and got as many students as we could engaged on their floor,” said Mr. Scott, a fellow with Rise, a college voter advocacy organization.

Max Lubin, the chief executive of Rise, said the group’s target in Pennsylvania is to turn out more college voters there this year than President Trump’s 44,000-vote margin of victory in the state in 2016. So far, 50,000 students have registered and made a plan to vote with the organization, including 4,000 at the University of Pittsburgh, Mr. Lubin said.

...

At Bard College in Annandale-on-Hudson, N.Y., students and the school sued in September to get a polling site on campus; the closest place to vote was at a church located down a dirt road in the nearby town of Red Hook.

A New York State Supreme Court judge originally denied their petition, citing a Republican member of the Dutchess County Board of Elections who said it was too close to the election to change polling locations. Yet the very next day, the board moved two other polling sites in Red Hook.

On Friday, the judge reversed her decision and ordered the polling site to be moved to Bard’s main student center.

“For the first time on this campus,” said Sadia Saba, 21, a senior who was a plaintiff in the case, “students feel like their voices are being heard in the political process.”

It is embarrassing the levels at which republicans will go to suppress the vote. And the ironic thing is, almost every time there is some proven case of voter fraud, it's always republicans.

[quote]It is embarrassing the levels at which republicans will go to suppress the vote.

NEW: In 2016, Erik Prince & Roger Stone teamed up on a plan to suppress black voters. Dubbed "Project Clintonson," the operation aimed to spotlight a young black man named Danney Williams, who claims that he is Bill Clinton’s son, and to cast Hillary Clinton as the “villain of this drama.”

“We do not need to make major gains among African American voters,” said a 13-page proposal for Project Clintonson that Prince sent to unnamed donors a week before Election Day 2016. “We merely need to dampen turn out [sic] and make it difficult for the Black Democratic elected officials in Hillary’s pocket to turn out Black voters at Obama-like levels. A shift of a few points in the right places can swing this election.”

Aside from the fact that 77 million already voted, the GDP number means nothing.

Nothing has any has had any upward effect in Trump's polls numbers in months and months. Absolutely nothing. People don't trust him, they don't like him, and they want to see him out. A surge in GDP isn't going to change that.

Biden has a good chance because of today, 29 October 2020 at 11:07 a.m., the United States has had:

9,132,679 cases of Coronavirus

and

233, 298 deaths from Coronavirus

I would write the number of "recovered" but as those who are paying attention to reality know, many who have COVID and get through the actual sickness of it are left with long-term health issues. "Recovery" denotes being normal which many Coronavirus survivors will never be again.

Trump and his prolapse lickers can bleat about the GDP until their throats bleed. But they will only, once again and forever, show how tone deaf and callous they are to the American people.

[quote]Aside from the fact that 77 million already voted, the GDP number means nothing

Not to mention that people don't vote on "GDP." They vote on jobs and their own economic situation. And the GDP number itself just isn't that great:

[quote]But economists said the third-quarter figures revealed less about the strength of the recovery than about the severity of the collapse that preceded it. G.D.P. fell 1.3 percent in the first quarter and 9 percent in the second as the pandemic forced widespread business closures. A big rebound was inevitable once the economy began to reopen. The challenge is what comes next. ...

[quote]Already, there are signs that the recovery is losing steam. Industrial production fell in September and job growth has cooled, even as a growing list of major corporations have announced new rounds of large-scale layoffs and furloughs. Most economists expect the slowdown to worsen in the final three months of the year as virus cases rise and federal aid to households and businesses fades.

[quote]Why does anyone buy into 538’s poll grading?

Because it's based on the pollster's methodology and the real-world performance of their polls against final results.

[quote]Did you ever read what it’s based on?

Yes. Did you?

The people who could still change their minds at this point don’t even know what GDP is.

[quote]Now the pundits are calling the race here a nail biter.

Out of curiosity, why are you lying about something that is so easily proved to be false, R138?

That's pretty much all the Yard Sign Troll does, R167. I think he's just a loser who wants attention.

It's really puzzling in this case, R168, because what "the pundits" are saying is that this race has been remarkably consistent throughout this entire election cycle and that the predicted and expected "tightening" of the race mostly hasn't occurred.

That's not to say that Trump cannot win, of course. We're talking about probabilities at this point, not certainty, but Biden is still favored and there doesn't seem to be any evidence of any "nail-biting." Trump has needed a game-changer for months and the evidence to date is that he hasn't been able to find one.

[italic]One big difference between me and the various yard sign trolls: I won't be at all embarrassed to re-read this post on November 4th, regardless of who won the election.[/italic]

#BREAKING #Election2020

#Biden: 52% (+7) Trump: 45%

Oct. 25 | 1,215 Likely Voters Tufts University

Pundits are saying it’s on the cusp of a Biden landslide. The majority of voters who will vote have already done so, and amongst this group, Biden has a crushing lead or advantage

I think from now on I am more interested in RVs than LVs.

The GDP news is getting buried in the news story

79 million have already voted

Most of the people who will vote in this election have already done so, five days before November 3

A good Twitter thread on the House district polling. If I recall correctly, the 2016 House district polling showed numbers that were more favorable to Trump than were the national and state polls. Some highlights:

[quote]There have been 165 House polls to test a Biden/Trump race since March. 159 of them have found a shift towards Biden, relative to '16.

[quote]Of the 159 House polls that shifted to Biden, the shift was double-digits in 97 of them (over 60%). The average shift towards Biden in all 165 polls is 10.5 pts. Only 6 of the 165 shifted to Trump relative to 2016, and the average shift in his direction was 3.6 pts.

[quote]The Biden/Trump race has been polled in 70 US House districts since March. Trump carried 57 (or, 81%) of them in 2016. He leads Biden in just 23 (or, 33%) of them. Trump carried these 70 districts by 6.2 pts in 2016. Biden currently leads them by 4, a net shift of 10.2 pts.

[quote]Fifteen states have had the Biden/Trump race polled in multiple districts, including 4 of the 6 states Biden's most likely to flip from Trump (FL, MI, NC, and PA). Averages of district results within these states paint a rosier picture for Biden than state-level polling.

[quote]Take PA, for example. Five of their 18 congressional districts have been polled re: the Biden/Trump race. Trump carried 3 of the 5, by 7.1 pts on average. Biden currently leads in 4 of the 5, by an average of 5.2 pts. That's 12.3 pt shift to Biden relative to 2016.

See the thread for more. The usual caveats apply: yes, the polls can be wrong; yes, Trump can win; yes, there are still five days to go. But none of that changes that this was an early indicator for Trump in 2016 and that it has shifted to an early indicator for Biden in 2020.

NEW American Research Group (B) New Hampshire poll October 26-28:

Biden 58% (+19) Trump 39% Jorgensen 1%

Shaheen 57% (+17) Messner 40% O’Donnell 0%

Feltes 46% (-5) Sununu 51% Perry 1%

MOE +/- 4%

Ohio Poll:

Trump 49% Biden 47%

@GravisMarketing 10/27-10/28

R133 So silly. If a "Comey effect" is going to happen from economic news it's the almost 1000 point drop yesterday in the stock market. People's shaky 401k s because of pandemic economic insecurity affect voting much, much more than a GDP # that only reinforces the crisis we have been in.

Dave Wasserman: Let's see...what are the last five polling outfits in the RCP Pennsylvania average the past week? InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar, Reuters/Ipsos, Fox, Rasmussen.

With the exception of Fox (Biden +5), not exactly the A team.

GDP is an elite interest, not something the great majority of voters care about

Results from our final 2020 @UMassLowell polls of New Hampshire, Texas, and North Carolina for President. #Elections2020

89. New high.

R180, I have been saying this for months now. RCP cherry picks them unlike others and yet still can't have Trump leading at any single point.

Facing Gap in Pennsylvania, Trump Camp Tries to Make Voting Harder

Trailing in the polls, President Trump and his campaign are pursuing a three-pronged strategy that would effectively suppress the mail-in vote in the critical state of Pennsylvania.

By Nick Corasaniti and Danny Hakim

Oct. 29, 2020

Updated 10:20 a.m. ET

PHILADELPHIA — President Trump’s campaign in the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania is pursuing a three-pronged strategy that would effectively suppress mail-in votes in the state, moving to stop the processing of absentee votes before Election Day, pushing to limit how late mail-in ballots can be accepted and intimidating Pennsylvanians trying to vote early.

Election officials and Democrats in Pennsylvania say that the Trump effort is now in full swing after a monthslong push by the president’s campaign and Republican allies to undermine faith in the electoral process in a state seen as one of the election’s most pivotal, where Mr. Trump trails Joseph R. Biden Jr. by about six percentage points, according to The Upshot’s polling average.

Mail-in votes in Pennsylvania and other swing states are expected to skew heavily toward Democrats. The state is one of a handful in which, by law, mail-in votes cannot be counted until Election Day, and the Trump campaign has leaned on Republican allies who control the Legislature to prevent state election officials from bending those rules to accommodate a pandemic-driven avalanche of absentee ballots, as many other states have already done.

At the same time, the campaign has pushed litigation to curtail how late mail-in votes can be accepted, as part of a flurry of lawsuits in local, state and federal courts challenging myriad voting rules and procedures. On Wednesday evening, the Supreme Court refused to hear a fast-tracked plea from Pennsylvania Republicans to block a three-day extension of the deadline for receiving absentee ballots. But Kathy Boockvar, a Democrat who is Pennsylvania’s secretary of state, advised counties to segregate ballots received after 8 p.m. on Election Day, as the issue remains before the court.

The Trump campaign has also dispatched its officials to early voting sites, videotaped voters and even pressed election administrators in the Philadelphia area to stop people from delivering more than one ballot to a drop box.

The Trump campaign’s on-the-ground efforts in Philadelphia have already drawn a rebuke from the state attorney general, who warned that the campaign’s foot soldiers risked being charged with voter intimidation. But the Trump campaign has defied local leaders and is running a similar operation in Delaware County, one of the suburban “collar” counties around Philadelphia that have become increasingly Democratic since the 2016 election.

The campaign’s strategy is backed up by public statements from the president, who barnstormed the state on Monday and repeatedly made false claims about the security of voting in Pennsylvania along with ominous warnings.

“A lot of strange things happening in Philadelphia,” he said during a stop in Allentown. “We’re watching you, Philadelphia. We’re watching at the highest level.”

The president’s comments drew an angry response on Wednesday from Lawrence S. Krasner, the city’s district attorney.

“The Trump administration’s efforts to suppress votes amid a global pandemic fueled by their disregard for human life will not be tolerated in the birthplace of American democracy,” Mr. Krasner said. “Philadelphians from a diversity of political opinions believe strongly in the rule of law, in fair and free elections, and in a democratic system of government. We will not be cowed or ruled by a lawless, power-hungry despot. Some folks learned that the hard way in the 1700s.”

...

Some residents have been left bewildered by the Trump campaign’s attention this year. During the primary election over the summer, Adam S. Goodman, an insurance lawyer, posted a photo on Instagram in which he proudly held up two mail-in ballots outside a drop box. He soon found that the picture had been included in litigation the Trump campaign filed against the city. The campaign used the photo of Mr. Goodman along with other photos to say that some voters were dropping off more than one ballot at drop boxes.

But Mr. Goodman said his husband was simply standing out of the frame when the picture was taken.

“I find it very concerning that they are taking photos out of context from people’s Instagram pages or posting surveillance photos, and there’s no follow-up to determine if that’s the case,” Mr. Goodman said in an interview. “My husband didn’t want to be in the photo. He was with me, and I took a picture of the ballots.”

He called the campaign’s actions “manufacturing evidence that doesn’t exist, and that’s what concerns me.”

The intensity of the Trump campaign’s efforts in Philadelphia stems in part from the man running its Election Day operations nationwide: Michael Roman, a native Philadelphian who cut his teeth in city politics before running a domestic intelligence-gathering operation for the conservative Koch brothers. Like his boss, Mr. Roman has persistently made public statements undermining confidence in the electoral process.

Mr. Roman did not comment for this article.

In a statement, Thea McDonald, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, said: “While Democrats have attempted to force rule changes and sow chaos and confusion every step of the way, Republicans have clearly and consistently advocated for stable, understandable rules so that every voter knows how to cast their ballot and can do so with confidence it will count.”

After the June primary, the Republican strategy began in earnest, in a battle that pitted Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, against the Republican-controlled Legislature.

Because of the pandemic, states like Pennsylvania are being flooded with mail-in ballots. Local election administrators and the governor sought to allow early processing of the ballots, known as “pre-canvassing,” but Republicans attached conditions; among them, they wanted to do away with drop boxes, impose new signature-matching requirements and allow poll watchers to cross county lines, a step that good-government groups feared would invite intimidation and delays.

The state has a history of aggressive Republican tactics. In one of the more notorious episodes, Republican poll watchers stationed at a polling place at the University of Pittsburgh in 2004 began challenging the identities of large numbers of students waiting in line to vote, who had to get friends to sign affidavits for them.

Democrats were not seeking to actually scan the ballots early, as many other states are doing. Instead, they simply wanted to allow local officials to get a head start by opening envelopes and flattening the ballots, to get them ready for processing.

“This felt like a layup,” Suzanne Almeida, a lawyer for Common Cause in Pennsylvania, said, adding, “county elections officials and county commissioners were very clear about how critical this was to them.”

But the Republican maneuvers mean even those efforts will have to wait until the morning of Election Day.

“Pennsylvania did nothing” to prepare, said Amber McReynolds, chief executive of the National Vote at Home Institute and the former head of Denver’s election system. “The Legislature has completely failed the counties.”

As a result, Ms. Almeida said, “we’re certainly not at a place where we’re going to have results on election night.”

“There’s just no physical way,” she continued. “There’s three million people who have requested a mail-in ballot.”

...

The campaign also brought an array of legal maneuvers that could disqualify some mail-in ballots. It successfully sued to prevent election officials from accepting ballots that arrive without their inner envelopes, known as secrecy sleeves. A Philadelphia election official warned that the disqualification of such “naked ballots” could lead to the rejection of more than 100,000 ballots statewide. That prompted a huge voter information campaign, including a video of naked celebrities.

Republicans also challenged the installation and use of drop boxes to allow voters to avoid the Postal Service, but that challenge failed in state and federal courts.

Aggressive tactics also continue on the ground. The Trump campaign first sent poll watchers to satellite election offices in Philadelphia where voters were dropping off and filling out mail-in ballots. But those poll watchers were barred by city officials, who said monitoring of election offices fell outside sanctioned poll-watching activities.

Then the campaign began videotaping drop boxes in and around the city. This month, the Trump campaign told The New York Times that it was only aiming to find people who were delivering large numbers of ballots to the drop boxes, not people who were dropping off an extra ballot, most likely for a family member.

But that claim was false. Within days, the campaign gave images to city officials of voters dropping off two or three ballots and demanded a crackdown. The campaign has also been monitoring how drop boxes are used in nearby Delaware County.

Voting has been upended by the pandemic, and many voters are unfamiliar with the rules around drop boxes, which they may be using for the first time. But city officials have rejected the campaign’s assertions that the voters in the images are necessarily doing anything wrong. Under state law, voters can deliver only their own ballots to drop boxes, unless they are assisting a voter who has a disability or who otherwise needs assistance.

The bitterness of the campaign was on full display at a recent rally, where Mr. Trump promised to punish Pennsylvania and its governor for trying to thwart his rallies in the state.

“He shut us out, and he tried shutting us out of two other venues,” said Mr. Trump, who was not shut out and held three rallies this week in the state.

A spokeswoman for the governor denied the claims and said the president’s campaign had not contacted the governor’s office about the rallies.

Mr. Trump promised revenge nonetheless.

“I’ll remember it, Tom,” he said in Allentown. “I’m going to remember it, Tom. ‘Hello, Mr. President, this is Gov. Wolf. I need help, I need help.’ You know what? These people are bad.”

Law enforcement officials, at least in Philadelphia, were unbowed by the president’s threats.

“Keep your Proud Boys, goon squads and uncertified ‘poll watchers’ out of our city, Mr. President,” Mr. Krasner, the district attorney, said. “Break the law here, and I’ve got something for you.”

Why are some of you still not realizing RCP leans Republican

From Monmouth University:

FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 45% From New York Times/Siena:

NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 48%, Trump 45% From University of Massachusetts Lowell:

NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 48%, Trump 48%

R189, can't you clean up the formatting when you paste this stuff?

No

Joe Biden leads in North Carolina, according to the final Times/Siena poll of the state Biden 48, Trump 45 Cunningham 46, Tillis 43 Cooper 51, Forest 42

Kudlow is on MSNBC freaking the fuck out.

Oh gosh

All this anxiety is causing me to have gas

Good ballot design. I hope moving forward design is carefully considered and experts consulted.

GDP stories are framed as "After enormous crash, economy starting to recover some"

Wall Street stories are framed as "Fear of COVID Second/Third Wave Sends Markets Reeling"

And I'll throw in that few people know what a GDP is, most people know what the Dow Jones is.

I think New Hampshire is a good indicative of how the race will go. When a Democrat wins it by barely 0.3%, like Clinton did, then you know he/she is in trouble. ATM, Biden is running away with it with more than 50%.

5 days feels like forever.

"Trump Is Losing Ground With Some — But Not All — White Christians"

What a silly title. If you're losing ground with some, that necessarily means not all.

Still, it's good news.

Are you kidding me, R199? It seems like yesterday we had people writing off Joe’s great poll numbers because we were four months out. Time is flying. Five days is more like five hours. The weekend is practically here. Soon it will be Monday. And the next thing you know, we’re on here making threads about Biden cabinet vetting.

[quote] Biden is a non starter here in Wisconsin.

[quote] Trump was just handed a huge win with the GDP number. If he can stay on an economy message for the next 5 days I think it’s over for Biden. Dropping this GDP number this close to the election is just as bad as the Comey letter. This is so scary.

Inane posts like these (whether they are hysterical, uninformed Dems, or actual trolls) are so funny in light of posts like R176’s. District level polling tells the real story.

I should add the story of youth vote turnout in this election is as much an indicator as the district level polls.

Opinion

So, Russia, You Want to Mess With Our Voting Machines?

The United States should threaten to retaliate — and I’m not talking about economic sanctions or legal indictments.

By Tim Wu

Mr. Wu is a co-author of “Who Controls the Internet?: Illusions of a Borderless World.”

Oct. 29, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET

Put yourself in the shoes of Russian or Iranian leadership for a moment. Why not interfere with the voting in the U.S. presidential election? What could be more advantageous than catalyzing a bitter and protracted battle over the results of the election, with a chance of igniting civil unrest throughout the country? Sure, it might not work — but with little to lose and so much to gain, why not try?

When it comes to foreign election meddling in elections, disinformation is a serious threat, but the most disruptive form of intrusion is electoral cyber-interference: the freezing of voting systems, the mass deletion of voter registration information, altering vote counts and so on. Such feats may not be easily accomplished, but if they were successful, they could throw the United States into chaos.

The risk is not hypothetical. American intelligence agencies, having hacked into Russian computer networks, report that Russia recently infiltrated some voting systems in the United States. If Russia or another country were to alter tallies or voter information in just a few swing states, it could threaten our confidence in the results of the election.

That is why this week, Joe Biden and President Trump should threaten punishing retaliation should another nation attempt such forms of electoral interference. They should stress that by “interference” they do not mean propaganda or influence campaigns, but rather direct attacks on the election, which are attacks on political independence and thus a form of illegal aggression. And they should warn that such attacks will lead to destructive consequences — as permitted by international law — for the offending nation and its leadership.

Deterrence is a standard component of military strategy and foreign policy. The formula is well established and historically effective: Clearly establish what action is forbidden and credibly commit to delivering a significant punishment if the action is taken.

But despite the danger of electoral interference in the election, the United States has not taken these steps, at least not in public. It is true that Mr. Biden recently warned that should he become president, Russia would pay an “economic price” for any inference in the 2020 election, but that modest threat — which did not distinguish between propaganda and electoral manipulation — likely didn’t change the calculus in Moscow.

Instead, the United States is relying on a different strategy: attacking the attackers, or “defending forward.” In the past few weeks, for instance, the United States Cyber Command and a group of companies including Microsoft took steps to disrupt Trickbot, a network of secretly connected computers that could have been used to attack our election systems.

Defending forward is a good strategy and should be pursued. But it accepts the status quo — that our foes are likely to continue to attack our elections. The goal of deterrence, in contrast, is to make leadership in places like Russia and Iran think twice before even trying. We need to pursue both strategies in parallel.

What threatened punishment would be painful enough to dissuade a foreign power yet still be credible? (No enemy would believe us if we were to threaten, say, a land invasion.) Experts in deterrence would no doubt recommend that the United States leave the threat somewhat vague, but President Trump and Mr. Biden should make clear that we are not talking about imposing economic sanctions, expelling diplomats or issuing more legal indictments. We would be speaking of a more forceful response.

...

If the U.S. election is attacked and American intelligence agencies identify the perpetrator, our leadership must be prepared to follow through with our threat. I am not an expert in military strategy, but presumably the most effective punishment would be tailored to the nation in question (what hurts Russia is not necessary what hurts Iran). American political leadership, together with the military and intelligence agencies, would determine the proper response — be it a cyberattack or whatever they deem commensurate and feasible and effective.

In an ideal world, Mr. Biden and President Trump would jointly threaten retaliation. (In a less polarized political environment, such joint threats might even become a standard feature of presidential campaigns.) Yet President Trump has not evinced great concern about the possibility of foreign election interference. It falls to Mr. Biden to issue a threat that is clearer and more consequential than those he has issued so far.

Such a warning from Mr. Biden this week might be too little, too late. It might also be the case that Russian and Iranian hackers are overrated or more cautious than we think and the risk of interference is small. It also must be conceded that a deterrence strategy, in the event that it did lead to retaliation, would invite counter-retaliation. Things could escalate.

But right now there is no line in the sand: no public, clear and meaningful discouragement of any effort to destabilize the United States through electoral interference. We shouldn’t resign ourselves to a future of constant attacks on our sovereignty and political independence — and merely hope they don’t succeed.

Tim Wu (@superwuster) is a law professor at Columbia University, a contributing opinion writer and the author, with Jack Goldsmith, of “Who Controls the Internet?: Illusions of a Borderless World.”

Dave Wasserman has been looking at Sumter County, FL as kind of a barometer how he will do in the rest of the state. It's where The Villages is, and is very very heavily R-leaning, obviously. but he needs to run about a 2:1 advantage in order to be competitive statewide.

At the moment, and with almost 3/4ths of RVs having returned ballots, he is well under that.

Sorry, R206, "he" means Trump, right?

What's "RVs"?

Are you fucking serious actor Paul Rudd is handing out cookies to people in line to vote in the rain in Brooklyn

Registered voters. Based on the % of returned ballots thus far, assuming that it's a straight party-line vote, Trump has to have won about half of the registered independents, and Biden has polled very well with those.

R207, RV = registered voters, and Wasserman is talking about Trump.

[quote]Are you fucking serious actor Paul Rudd is handing out cookies to people in line to vote in the rain in Brooklyn

Do you know where in Brooklyn?

Hawaii is the first state to surpass the number of votes cast in 2016. That's ultimately irrelevant to the EC, but does give a barometer of enthusiasm and engagement.

Is R208 upset about what Rudd is doing or are they excited?

From Quinnipiac University:

FLORIDA: Biden 45%, Trump 42% IOWA: Trump 47%, Biden 46% OHIO: Biden 48%, Trump 43% PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 44%

It’s on Twitter and yes Paul Rudd is standing in the rain with cookies for voters. He looks amazing of course. What an incredible cool guy. Makes me want to show up at a poll with some treats

Broward Co., FL just passed the turnout mark of 60% of all registered Democrats having voted. Overall turnout stands at 54% of all registered voters and almost 83% of 2016's total vote. Reminder: greater turnout in Broward = greater margin for Dems (why Biden is there today).

Paul Rudd was at Barclays Center. He is lovely

Harris Co will likely surpass its entire 2016 turnout today. Dems need them to get as close to 1.5 mill before e-day as possible. Now over 1.3 million

Dave Wasserman: Bottom line: if we hear any news anchor/pundit say that Trump appears to be doing "surprisingly well" in MI/PA/WI based on E-Day votes alone or that Biden is doing "amazingly" in FL/NC/TX based on early votes, they should be fired on the spot for gross negligence.

New: Sumter Co., FL just hit 75,861 votes cast, which is 72% turnout of RVs and 99% of its total 2016 votes cast - the highest in the state.

New @QuinnipiacPoll of Iowa (LVs):

Trump 47% Biden 46%

Ernst (R) 48% Greenfield (D) 46%

New @QuinnipiacPoll of Pennsylvania (LVs):

Biden 51% Trump 44%

The major TX counties with the *lowest* turnout of registered voters so far are mostly heavily Hispanic (as is typical):

1. Webb 31% 2. Cameron 38% 3. Bell 39% 4. El Paso 39% 5. Hidalgo 42%

The major TX counties (100k+ registrants) with the highest turnout of registered voters so far are all heavily suburban:

1. Montgomery 65% 2. Collin 62% 3. Williamson 62% 4. Comal 61% 5. Fort Bend 61%

I have to say I dont enderstand R219

R215 - Pic please

With over 70M ballots cast already in this election, white non-college voters have cast just over half as many ballots as they did in total in the '16 election. Meanwhile, college educated white voters and voters of color are much closer to their 2016 vote totals.

R270 please give some context to a post like that. What are we to make of Sumpter county.

Sumter is deep red

A little soft in Nevada.

Florida in-person EV Day 11 (4:40 PM UPDATE)

Rep 97,041 (+37,362) Dem 59,679 NPA/Other 48,574 Total 205,294

Cumulative total

Rep 1,568,032 (+464,205) Dem 1,103,827 NPA/Other 692,345 Total 3,364,204

Florida Democrats, get your asses to the polls now!

FLORIDA

Votes Cast: Democratic: 3,083,486 (+169,291) Republican: 2,914,195 NPA/Other: 1,676,716

Total: 7,674,397

Registered voters who have NOT voted yet: NPA/Other: 2,292,887 Republican: 2,254,817 (+35,049) Democratic: 2,219,768

Total: 6,767,472

Biden will take NV in the end and while FL is a nice get, I think it's GA, NC, TX, AZ, and IA are the swin/ red states where Biden seems to be most competitive with party line crossing voters and where the Dem bases are more energised.

Biden will very narrowly lose FL and TX while narrowly win PA and NC. So to avoid post-election court wars, he needs to flip AZ and one of GA or IA to overcome the cheating.

R231, what are you showing in your link? It doesn’t match your post.

(Boston Herald/FPU): Biden +14 (53-39-3) (CNN): Biden +12 (54-42) (USC): Biden +12 (54-42) (Reuters): Biden +10 (52-42) (USA Today): Biden +8 (52-44) (Tufts): Biden +7 (52-45) (IBD/TIPP): Biden +5 (50-45-3) (Rasmussen): Biden +1 (48-47) Average of today’s polls: Biden +8.6

As of 5:30 p.m., 4 million ballots have been cast in North Carolina!

More data:

#ncpol #YourVoteCountsNC

@bidonkules @Katty_Kissem @Lee_in_Iowa 59% of registered Dems in IA have already voted. I suspect that number will get up to the 65% range before e-day. Not too worried that the remaining voters will have any trouble casting a ballot. GOP will be the ones who have to deal w/the problem, not us.

[quote] [R270] please give some context to a post like that. What are we to make of Sumpter county.

I can’t remember why Sumpter is seen as a barometer, but the idea is that Trump needs 67% of the vote there. Without meeting that threshold, he can’t win Florida (again, I don’t know why that is), and without FL he can’t win re-election.

If you go to @Redistrict on Twitter, that’s Dave Wasserman’s account and he explains Sumpter somewhat in detail... I think.

Just trust in Dave, is all I can tell you.

So far it looks like Trump is set to underperform in Sumpter.

I’m so anxious that my stomach is hurting. I haven’t experienced that in years.

Watch Netflix and go work out bruh

BREAKING: Federal Court rules Minnesota absentee ballots must be in by election day.

The ruling goes against an earlier decision upholding the earlier stated state policy that mail-in ballots would be accepted after election day if postmarked by Nov. 3.

Young Texans who voted early in 2016: 106,000 Young Texans who (so far) voted early in 2020: 753,600 (!)

Sumter not SumPter.

Oh dearing myself.

Fmr. GOP Majority Leader of the Florida House, President Pro Temp. of the Senate, & Rick Scott Appointee @FasanoMike endorses @JoeBiden for President.

"I love my party, but I love my country more. In 2020, I'm a #BidenRepublican."

President (North Carolina)

Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 48%

10/26-10/29 by Harris Poll (C) 903 LV

Arf arf! Can I have a treat?

Poll #135522 #ElectionTwitter

[bold] The One Where DLers Drive Themselves To Extremes By Posting Every Single Poll They Can Find On Twitter, With Zero Thought As To Context Or Validity

It's mostly just one person, R246. Just ignore them and move on.

Good call R247.

That Minnesota ruling is bullshit. You can't change the rules 4 days before the election.

Did anyone see the Sarah Connor/ Helen Mirren re-enactment of the Trump Access Hollywood Tape. Incredibly awesome. There is a link on Daily Kos

#earlyvote evening update 10/29

At least 81 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳

Broadway for Biden live.

Total Early Votes: 81,010,267 • In-Person Votes: 28,342,925 • Mail Ballots Returned: 52,667,342 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 37,638,153

SE Cupp makes everyone panic.

Rachel Maddow just reported that Harris County in Texas will have some polling locations open 24 hours starting now until early voting ends Friday night. So, if you want to go vote at 2 am tonight, you can.

Great! Other urban counties should do the same

BREAKING: If you live in Minnesota and have an absentee ballot.

DO NOT MAIL YOUR BALLOT.

Bring it to a DROPBOX or VOTE in PERSON. A new Federal Court ruling that if your mail in is not received by November third, it will not be counted.

Retweet the hell out of this.

Sir Humphrey

@bdquinn

·

8m

The parties are defined by personality more than ideology these days. I bet the percentage of people with diagnosed panic disorder who are Dems is 80%+. Narcissistic personality disorder flips the opposite way.

Just heard on CNN that two GOP electors (aka party apparatchiks) brought the suit to the courts, and it was somehow shopped to the Federal Appeals court where 2 GOP judges (against 1 Obama judge) decided 5 days before the end of the election to change the fucking rules!

The GOP should be run out of town, state and country! No mercy.

'We’ve got to stop the bleeding': Democrats sound alarm in Miami

Party officials in Florida’s most populous county are sweating weak early voting turnout among several key groups.

Trump’s 2020 Plan to Win Pennsylvania: Throw Out 100,000 Ballots

BESS LEVIN

OCTOBER 29, 2020 2:47 PM

R250

It was pretty good

R260 Biden won't win Florida, but he'll win the election. Florida is deplorable country.

Michael Moore who accurately predicted 2016 says that the polls are not accurate. Take the most conservative number of points Biden is ahead in any given state and then divide that by half. That is how close the margins are, if you believe in what he is saying. if not, landslide for Biden!!!

R264 fuck Michael Moore. His contrarian bullshit benefits from Trump staying in office. He’s useless.

R264, we don't need Moore, we have Trafalgar and Rassmussen to do just that for us.

R254, I agree with SE Cupp. This is not going to end well. I have very very bad feeling about 3rd/4th November.

You and SE Cupp can go jump off a cliff, R266.

SE Cupp maybe right, but Clinton never went above 47% in the polling averages in the three States Biden must have to win (WI, MI and PA). This time around Biden is above 50% in MI and WI, and is 49.6 in PA. WAY, WAY less undecideds and third party voters this time around.

For him to lose those States, he needs to underperform his polling averages, something Hilary Clinton did only in Wisconsin (and that by only 0.3%). She overperformed in the other two States, but Trump overperformed more.

Lots of us are very shell shocked after 2016. We have reasons to be paranoid.

R268, it's less about actual voting, and more about all the cheating and suppression which already started and will no doubt will amplify on the election day and after. I am concerned about PA, WI, MN, MI, and NC.

Well, then next Tuesday we'll know if the US is another Venezuela or not.

Because clearly this needs to be repeated daily

2016 is not like 2020 because MANY PEOPLE WHO NORMALLY VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS HATED HER and were happy to see Her lose. Hence the "shy Trump voter"

No one feels that way about Biden

In Detroit, which is nearly 80 percent Black, some 41,000 fewer voters showed up to the polls in 2016 than in 2012, while nearly 3,000 voted for a third party or left the presidential choice blank. At the same time, turnout in predominantly white, rural Michigan counties increased. The combination was enough to cost Hillary Clinton her slim lead in the state, allowing Donald Trump to crack the “blue wall” with a margin of just 10,700 votes.

October 30, 2020 at 6:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 88 Comments

“Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state,” Politico reports.

“No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.”

R274, stop re-posting this shit over and over, Nikolai.

I’m not at all worried about FL. Biden has it.

Battleground alert! In Florida, our new @NBCNews/Marist Poll gives Biden a 4 point edge over Trump. Details here:

R277 so how do we square that with lower Democratic turnout in Dem strongholds? (At least that’s what I’m reading here)

[quote] (At least that’s what I’m reading here)

And that was my first mistake. Trusting something I read on Datalounge. It was all downhill from there.

R278, we don’t know. One theory is that a significant percentage of Republicans are voting for Trump. Also, polling shows independents lean toward Biden.

Pundits forget just how many independents are voting

President (National)

Biden (D) 55% Trump (R) 41%

10/26-10/29 by Opinium 1252 LV

Woof woof! Did I do a good job?

Poll #135669 #ElectionTwitter

Actually there is very high turnout in early voting among independents too. The polls indicate they are breaking for Biden or "shy Biden voters".

And here comes Politico with their story of the return of the "Shy" Trump voter.

I don’t get why people totally dismiss the huge number of Independents

President (National)

Biden (D) 51% Trump (R) 44%

10/25-10/29 by IBD/TIPP (A/B) 959 LV

Arf! Can I have a treat?

Poll #135681 #ElectionTwitter

NEWS: @JoeBiden, @DrBiden, @KamalaHarris, and @DouglasEmhoff to spend the final day before Election Day barnstorming PENNSYLVANIA, hitting all four corners of the state

If Biden Doesn’t win, it would represent the most catastrophic poll failure in history. The amount of polls being conducted this year makes it almost unthinkable for there to be a repeat of 2016. Polling would be tarnished longterm if Biden doesn’t win

Sounds like some are assuming polls will make the same mistake they did in 2016. I would have thought pollsters would have learned.

Nearly 1.4 million people have voted in Harris County, Texas, says county Judge Lina Hidalgo.

Voters can still “physically drop off their mail ballot. We still have 122 early vote locations, drive-through voting,” she added.

You posted that after people went into detail discussing why they are NOT dismissing independents, R285.

Most major pollsters are readjusting their sampling to ensure more white non-college voters are polled this time . That was one of the causes of the 2016 error

🚨🚨🚨This morning, the Texas Secretary of State is reporting that 9,009,850 Texans had voted through Thursday, a turnout of 53.1% of registered voters.

💥💥💥With that, Texas is at 100.5% of its **total** 2016 vote (including Election Day). #txlege #Election2020

R293, THATS REMARKABLE!!!! MARK THIS DAY, GURLS!

Why aren't polls tightening as we get to election day? This is bizarre.

R295, they have....by 0.00001point.

It’s been the most stable polling throughout a campaign year in history

The fact most people voted early almost makes it stable

To win #election2020 Biden needs the 232 electoral college votes of Clinton's '16 base plus 38.

According to our @NewStatesman model the states Biden is most likely to flip are:

1. Michigan 79% (16 votes) 2. Wisconsin 77% (10) 3. Pennsylvania 76% (20)

Pollsters are now challenged to find likely voters who haven’t already voted

The CCES is a huge academic survey of 50k folks. It will eventually power a lot of the research you see about the election. It shows some familiar trends (2016 CCES in paren): White 45-50 (40-54) Black 86-9 (89-8) Hispanic 59-35 (64-29)

All out in Pennsylvania on the last day makes sense for Biden. Biden's clearly up in the Clinton states, plus MI/WI--leaving him one state away. And as I noted last night, PA is really the only one possible soft spot for Biden in the public polling

Unreturned mail-in ballots in Miami-Dade: Republican 57,513 Democrats - 91,031 NPA - 67,686

Total: 219,507

R11, By many accounts, including that of MSNBC, THE PA county to watch is not Bucks but its contiguous neighbor to the North: my county of Northampton.

Won by Trump in 2016, but "Purple" as we speak.

Gut instinct, who's going to win? This morning I listened to The Argument (NY Times podcast w/ Michelle Goldberg and annoying Ross Douthat) with guest David French, and all of them say it's going to be Joe.

Michelle Goldberg says Georgia is looking good, don't underestimate the organization that's gone into it.

Ross says it'll be Biden, but maybe the senate will go 50-50.

David French says he thinks the polls have overcorrected, and it's going to be a big night for Biden, with him winning several swing states beyond the Blue Wall.

The Daily has a great piece of Shy Biden Voters in Florida

It's one of the best they've done, very bittersweet portrait of a few seniors. Dave from Pelican Bay in particular.

Stephanie on MSNBC joined in panicking about weak Florida turnout this morning.

A new poll finds Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump by 8 points nationally, doubling his advantage over the same poll from last month as Election Day nears.

The latest Harvard CAPS-Harris survey of likely voters finds Biden at 54 percent and Trump at 46 percent, with 57 percent of independents breaking for the Democratic nominee. The same poll from last month found Biden ahead 52-48. Eighty-six percent of voters say they’ve made up their minds.

Tens of millions of people have already voted and fewer than one in three say they intend to vote on Election Day.

13% of Republicans who have voted so far voted for Biden.

Wow.

Expect this to even out a bit with same-day turnout, but just...wow.

R307 TBH, just about anything that Stephanie Ruhle covers, sounds like panic. It could be Nestle Toll House Bake-off and she'd want to get us into a panic.

[italic]The price of chocolate chips is going through the roof, how will this impact the contestants' final product delivery! Will we see less chocolate chip cookies in school children's boxes! Can we survive the market's under supply of chips!! When will the chip market finally recover to safe levels!!![/italic]

If Biden wins, and Dems win the Senate, we can't suddenly get complacent and forget about midterms. The midterms played a huge part in halting the Obama administration's efforts to, among other things, fill vacant judiciary seats.

2022, please remember it's coming. Every seat counts. State houses, etc.

ok, now that the data-thread is done, some thoughts as NC is in the penultimate day of in-person early voting.

4M+ NCians have voted. An astounding #

That's 86% of all of 2016's total ballots cast

NC could come close to 100% of 2016, if 342K votes come in today & Saturday

Presidential race TV/radio ad spending in TEXAS markets for 10/27-11/3 --

Pro-Biden: $8.08M

Pro-Trump: $0

You have to overwhelm the ballot so that even their cheating won’t be enough. They are OPENLY trying to suppress the vote. Many votes won’t be counted. You have to cast enough ballots so that those not counted don’t matter.

The NYTimes says Donald Trump has pulled out of the election night party he was going to give at the Trump International Hotel in Washington. Fund-raising invitations for it were sent out some time ago. Trump will now spent election night quietly at the White House instead.

#earlyvote morning update 10/30

At least 83 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳

#earlyvote morning update 10/30

At least 83 million people have voted in the 2020 general election 🥳

NEW Long Island University (NR) National poll October 26-27 (adults):

Biden 47%/Trump 36% (+11)

MOE +/- 3.5%

NEW Kiaer Research (NR) Michigan poll October 21-28:

Biden 53.5%/Trump 40.6% (+12.9)

Peters 50.8%/James 38% (+12.8)

MOE +/- 5.6%

NEW @HofstraU (NR) National poll October 19-26:

Biden 53.9%/Trump 42.5% (+11.4)

MOE +/- 2.86%

President (North Carolina)

Trump (R) 48% Biden (D) 46% Blankenship (C) 2% Jorgensen (L) 1% Hawkins (G) 1%

10/27-10/28 by Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) 750 LV

Woof! Hope this was helpful!

Poll #135682 #ElectionTwitter

President (National)

Biden (D) 47% Trump (R) 36%

10/26-10/27 by Long Island University 1573 A

Arf arf! Can I have a treat?

Poll #135679 #ElectionTwitter

Trump Approval (National)

Approve 51% Disapprove 48%

10/27-10/29 by Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (C+) 1500 LV

Arf arf! Can I have a treat?

Poll #135685 #ElectionTwitter

“A presidential election that has driven a nation to drink is being fought to the bitter end by two men who do not,” the New York Times reports.

“For the first time in modern history, both major party candidates for the White House are teetotalers. President Trump and his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, have not had an alcoholic drink over the course of their lives, by their own accounts.”

Point 1: Even if you think the polls are off, why is everyone just discounting the increased number of new voters? Do you really think all of these new voters are voting for Trump? i get it, 2016 sucked, but have a little bit of hope.

Point 2: Have some faith in independents.

Point 3: Stop listening to people who make money by being contrarian. And finding and posting polls that are just going to make you more nervous.

Point 4: Read Cohn's Tweet

The pandemic is such an archetypal crisis for testing a president's capabilities and laying bare his values.

It's like a movie.

R315, that’s great news. Even Dump is recognizing the polls are cratering. It reminds me of 2016 when Hillary canceled fireworks at her election party at the last minute, as she saw her edge eroding. He knows the end is near.

I know this is DL, and we don't do positivity, but Taylor Swift gave what I'm guessing is Eric Swalwell's PAC permission to use one of her songs, and the result is...well, this.

That scary, uncomfortable feeling I Just had? I think it's hope.

Polls are a sampling that are then modeled. Anyone who has ever worked with a model understands that a model is only as good as its inputs/assumptions. The challenge for modelers are unforeseen changes in underlying assumptions -- call them Black Swan events.

So in 2016, pollsters underestimated the leanings of those hidden voters. They can try to model current polls based on that same eventual voter turnout, but it just seems there are so many different factors now that make this moment so unique from previous elections.

How the heck does a pollster determine what the correct sampling is of eventual voters, when voting this election is going in a very different pattern than previous elections? I don't have an answer to that but it seems like tarot card reading trying to come of as science.

[quote] The NYTimes says Donald Trump has pulled out of the election night party he was going to give at the Trump International Hotel in Washington. Fund-raising invitations for it were sent out some time ago. Trump will now spend election night quietly at the White House instead.

Oh, he may be at the WH, but it will most definitely [bold] NOT [/bold] be quiet. There will be thousands of people out there that night ready to remind him that he lost. And it will be very satisfying.

Bring. It. On, Don.

So what are you saying R329. Just ignore polling forever because once in 2016 a few state polls were off?

R331 Not miserable, just realistic and not looking for fantasies.

Polling isn't "fantasy," r332. We have too many examples of pollsters getting it right to pretend that's the case. Do they always get it right? Of course not: polls are based on probabilities, not certainties.

If the polls were all over the place we might question their results.

But they have been remarkably consistent.

And (for the millionth time) PEOPLE HATED HILLARY WITH THE HEAT OF A MILLION SUNS AND VOTED AGAINST HER. No one is voting against Biden.

(And yes, H-Hive, three million more people found Donald Trump more hateable than Hillary. But that does not negate the fact that millions hated her too.)

An electoral college decision tree, just for fun and as an exercise in presenting a complicated visualization in a simpler way.

Basically, they started with the assumption that Biden's blue state electoral vote total is 238 and Trump's red state total is 163 (Minnesota and Michigan to Biden; Texas to Trump). You start in the center, pick a color for Florida, and work your way outward to get to the outcome where either Biden or Trump wins.

For example, if you start from the center and work straight up, with Florida blue and Pennsylvania blue, it's a Biden victory. But if you start with Florida blue, then take then branches to the right, that gives Trump Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Maine-2, and the victory.

Or you can start with Florida red, Pennsylvania blue, Ohio red, and Georgia blue and that's enough for a Biden win.

For any of what they deem swing states, you can use the toggle below the circle to move them to D or R, simplifying the diagram.

R333 OK, great. So please share with us those polls that have as you say gotten it right, as well as their explanations of how they have adjusted their polling to reflect this unprecedented voting pattern. By unprecedented, I mean something they, the pollsters, have never seen before. I'll be curious to see that and am very open to understand their methodology of how they're accounting for that. To be clear, I really do want to believe them, but will not blindly accept their assessments of the impact of this unprecedented voting pattern.

BTW - all models are a projection of 'potential' outcome, so yes, I understand that.

R336, I'm not R333, but 2018 got it right. And, except for a few states polls (that have been fixed in 2020), the national polls got 2016 right.

Oh, give me a fucking break, r336. Go browse fivethirtyeight.com or realclearpolitics.com or any of the websites of the major polling organizations. Look at 538's pollster ratings to see how accurate each pollster is. Look at the polls for 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, etc. And also look into the literally hundreds of articles that explain how pollsters decide who "likely voters" are. Hint: they start by asking the voters they poll.

Are the polls guaranteed to be correct this year? Of course not. But to dismiss polling as "fantasy" is just dumb.

From Kiaer Research:

MICHIGAN: Biden 54%, Trump 41%

2016 was a hard year to predict the outcome because it featured very low turnout that looked more like the 2014 electorate than the 2012 and 2008 electionS. Based on early voting, we can assume that both the Republican and Democratic bases are going to turn out in unprecedented numbers. Places like Texas are looking at the possibility of 80% turnout

In. 2016, 2014, and 2010, The Tea Party and Trump base showed up to vote. Centrists and the Democratic base failed to show up. We know Republicans will show up to vote again. Will Democrats and progressives?

Evidently a civil discussion is beyond certain people. Perhaps too much caffeine. Oh well.

Just go straight to Dave Wasserman. Don't give Andrea Mitchell the clicks.

President (Florida)

Biden (D) 52% Trump (R) 45%

10/28-10/29 by Public Policy Polling (B) 941 V NOTE: partisan (D) poll

Woof woof! Can I have a treat?

Poll #135692 #ElectionTwitter

LOL Mitchell doesn't make money when you click on her tweets.

@Jack does

It's not just monetary. It's also giving her attention.

She's the Maggie Habermann of MSNBC.

Five Thirty Eight says Trump may lead Biden by up to 16 points at the end of election night. Trumpers will then try anything they can to shut down further counting.

The funny thing is that if we weren't all so traumatized by 2016, we'd be looking at this like it was 2008.

[QUOTE] Five Thirty Eight says Trump may lead Biden by up to 16 points at the end of election night. Trumpers will then try anything they can to shut down further counting.

It’s easy to see their path to stealing this election.

[quote]Evidently a civil discussion is beyond certain people. Perhaps too much caffeine. Oh well.

R342, when you start with the premise that polling is a "fantasy" and you ask questions that could easily be answered by a quick visit to either of the top polling news sites on the web, that doesn't bode well for a "civil discussion."

The 538 site gives pollster ratings that tell you exactly how accurate the pollsters are (the top ones are right a bit less then 90% of the time, well above "fantasy" level). And if you don't believe those ratings, you can always visit the archives at RCP, which give you data going back years at the state and national level, so you can see for yourself the polling numbers against the final outcomes.

As for determining who a "likely voter is," every pollster does it a bit differently and most of them keep it secret. That said, common questions they ask are, "How likely are you to vote in this election?" "Did you vote in the last election?" "How enthusiastic are you about the coming election?" They also look at the age of the voter, as younger voters do not turn out as often as older voters.

In 2016, the polls were accurate at the national level and in almost all of the states. Even in the states where they missed the outcome, it was still within the margin of error for most of the polls. The mistake that many pollsters made in 2016 was pretty simple: they under-sampled non-college-educated white voters in the Rust Belt. And that under-sampling was just enough for them to miss the results in three closely-contested races.

Obviously, pollsters are aware of that miss but it's not as simple as just over-sampling this time, as circumstances have changed since then, with Democratic constituencies generally turning out at higher rates in the elections since 2016. So they're asking their questions, looking at the make-up of the random samples they are getting, looking at 2016 and also at 2018, and coming up with what they hope is the right model for a likely voter.

R350, that really explains why Trump has been telling his people to vote in person. Just throw the mail in votes away, and he wins in a landslide. He’ll just tell his followers they aren’t “real” votes or something.

R351 some people are half empty people. There are boogeymen under every rock. Everything is a conspiracy and nothing is to be trusted. If 9 polls are positive and 1 is negative, then the negative one is the poll that must be believed. If 9 pundits are saying positive things and 1 pundit is saying the sky is falling. The sky is falling pundit is the guy who knows the truth.

Don't trust science. Don't trust established methods. Just trust the shadows on the internet or yard signs or tea leaves or god knows what.

NBC/Marist poll of NC (among likely voters):

Biden 52% Trump 46%

Oct 25-28, +/- 4.7%

Among registered voters, it's Biden 51%, Trump 46%

Reading this now. At least the first half is very thrilling, as it describes a Dem win, etc.

And let's be real R353-- the vast majority of DLers are glass-half-empty types

It's sad that Obama has to post this but here are Voter Protection Hotlines in each state.

Florida Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 48% Trump (R): 46%

YouGov/Florida State U. / October 26, 2020 / n=1200 / Online

It's interesting (encouraging?) that in some of the polls Biden is performing higher with "likely voters" than "registered voters"... I think historically Democrats have been on the opposite side of this... more support among registered voters than likely voters.

Increasingly I think it will be over Tuesday night. I absolutely didn't believe that a month ago.

[quote] The inexorable change coming to the Democratic Party could make the GOP even more reactionary. Biden has defined himself as a “transitional” figure, and demands are already building for a Democratic leadership corps that reflects the party’s increasing reliance on young people and people of color. It’s not hard to imagine that by 2024, Democrats will be led by presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who is of Jamaican and Indian descent; vice-presidential nominee Pete Buttigieg, an openly gay man; and House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, who would be the first Black person to hold that post. Much like Obama did in 2008, such a roster would symbolize a changing America in a way that inspires the coalition of transformation—but terrifies many in the coalition of restoration. “It would touch on everything that a lot of Trump supporters were reacting to when they supported him in 2016—this sense of feeling threatened by the [challenge] to white supremacy in the U.S,” Schaffner told me.

That'd be so cool. The article says basically we're like America before the Civil War, when the South saw that it was increasingly the minority in a changing nation. They were able to stymie change and reform, through the Senate and the Supreme Court. Then the Civil War happened.

It's pretty clear the Senate filibuster has to go. We need new states, and then there's the Supreme Court. Not sure what to do there other than add justices.

R359, This year LVs are the ones who reported that they already voted and RVs are the ones who have not yet.

[quote] This year LVs are the ones who reported that they already voted and RVs are the ones who have not yet. SUVs, on the other hand, report that gas prices are way down.

85 million have voted.

This tweet is interesting.

[Quote]If they can even vote on election day. States are reporting closing polling locations due to positive test cases. It'd be glorious that Trump's own ineptitude infringed on his own voters' rights. While I don't support limiting voting access, it would just be fitting.

[quote] If they can even vote on election day. States are reporting closing polling locations due to positive test cases. It'd be glorious that Trump's own ineptitude infringed on his own voters' rights. While I don't support limiting voting access, it would just be fitting.

On the other hand, that just sets the stage for more litigation and agitation. Chaos benefits the incumbent.

R325 Thank you. A couple of more points:

[Quote]Most major pollsters are readjusting their sampling to ensure more white non-college voters are polled this time . That was one of the causes of the 2016 error

[Quote]The NYTimes says Donald Trump has pulled out of the election night party he was going to give at the Trump International Hotel in Washington. Fund-raising invitations for it were sent out some time ago. Trump will now spent election night quietly at the White House instead.

R325 Thank you. A couple of more points:

[Quote]Most major pollsters are readjusting their sampling to ensure more white non-college voters are polled this time . That was one of the causes of the 2016 error

[Quote]The NYTimes says Donald Trump has pulled out of the election night party he was going to give at the Trump International Hotel in Washington. Fund-raising invitations for it were sent out some time ago. Trump will now spent election night quietly at the White House instead.

I think this will be over Tuesday night, too. I know we have a lot of doomsdayers here, but Bidens lead is just too big and consistent.

Stop parroting the lie the 2016 was a low turnout election. 2016 had the highest number of voters of any election in US history at 137 million. In 2012 it was 129 million, and 2008 was 131.

Hillary had just 50,000 fewer voters in 2016 than Obama did in 2012.

This year, of course, we are going to blow well past that 2016 number.

I was very anxious and nervous about Biden's changes up until a few days ago. Now I'm a lot more calm. I think he's going to win.

R328 That made me cry.

Stipulated: Trump 2016 was evil and appealed to hate. But that campaign was also one of the most effective Presidential campaigns ever because Trump communicated extremely well, captivated *his* audience and appealed to a core emotion—hate. In 2020 he’s mustered zero of that.

Meanwhile Trump to hold 14 rallies in the next 3 days.

Dear me.

[quote][R328] That made me cry.

Oh, me too.

Swallwell asked her if he could use the song. Even with her being so outspoken in 2018, she's never let her music be used in a political ad.

She gave it to him for free.

That was beautiful.

😭

Biden gave it a good try but he will lose.

Someone mentioned upthread that the orange buffoon wasn’t airing ads in TX but,

I’ve seen ads for that racist pig here in El Paso, in español, no less.

They are horrific. Some low-class music and some asshole saying he’s voting for the shithead.

Several ads, actually.

R376, those might be PAC ads, if indeed the campaign itself isn't airing ads.

[quote] Stop parroting the lie the 2016 was a low turnout election. 2016 had the highest number of voters of any election in US history at 137 million. In 2012 it was 129 million, and 2008 was 131.

The population of the US tends to go up every four years

[quote]Meanwhile Trump to hold 14 rallies in the next 3 days.

Superspreader! Superspreader!

Timely mail delivery across Pennsylvania took a drastic turn for the worse in just the last two weeks amid a glut of voting by mail, according to U.S. Postal Service data filed Wednesday in federal court.

In Philadelphia, 42% of all first-class mail is taking longer than five days to be delivered. For comparison, that figure was 33% two weeks ago and just 13% in January, before a series of changes handed down by the Trump administration led to a national slowdown.

Also, apparently, Florida, R381

[quote] Raw footage of mailroom in post office here in Miami Dade. Source revealed “mail in ballots are within these piled up in bins on the floor. Mail has been sitting for over week!.”

icymi

If the election for president were being held today ...

FLORIDA Trump 42% Biden 45%

IOWA Trump 47% Biden 46%

OHIO Trump 43% Biden 48%

PENNSYLVANIA Trump 44% Biden 51%

(Quinnipiac U. Poll, LV, 10/23-27/20)

Michigan.. Biden +7(51/44) RMG

Biden Aides See Warnings in Black, Latino Turnout

October 30, 2020 at 5:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

“Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election,” Bloomberg reports.

“Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.”

FACEBOOK HAS BEEN GINNING UP THE PROPAGABDA TOWARDS BLACK PEOPLE AND LATINOS.

THEY ARE NOT VOTING!!

Facebook has convinced male minorities especially.

Are Democrats contacting Black and Latin voters to get them to vote? It’s seems they are just giving up on directly contacting them

Republicans are going door to door to get their people to vote. Millions of voters engaged through in person visits

R388, I’m in Pennsylvania, tbh, but I’ve been contacted 3-4 times A DAY by the Biden campaign.

Final Fox News Poll concludes that barely anything has changed in the race. Biden has been maintaining his lead throughout the whole year and reaching the election night with +8 lead.

R389, so what? It doesn’t matter if it’s in person, by phone, or by text. It still depends on people getting up off their asses, putting on their masks, and voting.

This is very worrisome.

R393, you only had to go EIGHT MEASLY POSTS above to see the same thing.

Do people know they there's no more time to mail your ballot? Gotta take it to the drop box.

The final Des Moines Register poll of Iowa comes out tomorrow night:

The final Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania comes out Monday morning:

Maybe the black and Latino people are waiting until Election day to vote?

Maybe they don't trust the mail or would simply prefer to vote in person.

Obama has been to PA twice. Isn't Joe going for a second or third time this weekend? Or is Joe in Florida and Kamala in PA?

Everyone is out so much I can't keep track but I know one of them is in PA and the other is in FLA.

Steve Kornacki an hour ago talks about accuracy of polls.

Trump had an event in Rochester tonight. The city did not fuck around, and forbade more than 250 attendees. He barreled through his scripted laugh lines and then left after 20 minutes.

So, no. These rallies are not about engaging with voters. These rallies are all about his ego, and he thinks this is the last gasp for it.

New Fox News national poll (which has Joe leading by 8) shows a remarkable contrast in favorability, with Joe Biden being viewed favorably by 55% of voters. That’s unbelievable. His campaign strategy of hammering the airwaves with positive ads has paid off. When the book is written on this election, many pages will be devoted to the fact that Joe spent his money telling us why we should support him instead of telling us how Trump is such a bad man (which is what Hillary did).

[quote]When the book is written on this election, many pages will be devoted to the fact that Joe spent his money telling us why we should support him instead of telling us how Trump is such a bad man (which is what Hillary did).

Hillary didn't have the Lincoln Project to do it for her.

🙄 The Lincoln Project. Give me a break. What have they done for Joe exactly, R402?

Should Democrats be panicking about that? You can decide, but consider two factors:

1) African American turnout is 0.4 pts ahead of their final 2016 vote share. Latino turnout is 1.4 pts ahead of their final vote share.

I love the Lincoln Project, but they are not responsible for boosting Biden’s favorability. All they do is troll Trump and the GOP (which is great, but...).

Couple things to remember: 1) black and Hispanic voters tend to not trust vote-by-mail, so expect a healthy Election Day turnout from them. 2) the cross tabs in that Fox News poll out today show Biden doing much much better than the final number vs Trump. He is killing it.

Tell everyone to vote, no more vote by mail obviously, check with everyone you know in swing states to make sure they’re voting, don’t forget to vote yourselves, and DON’T panic. Steady and calm and confident. That should be the “mood” this weekend and into Tuesday.

Early voting blog updated with numbers that show 81K Clark Dem firewall, 45K statewide lead. New models show Biden lead holding steady, Trump needs miracle scenario unless GOP can change mix of electorate. Come for the

Current FiveThirtyEight Odds:

Biden: 89.4000% Trump: 10.1875%

R315, Sundowning. Trump can't be among non-family at night.

Governor (North Carolina)

Cooper (D) 51% Forest (R) 43%

10/24-10/27 by Meeting Street Insights (B/C) 600 LV NOTE: partisan (R) poll

Arf arf! Hope this was helpful!

Poll #135838 #ElectionTwitter

Tennessee has had absurdly high turnout and I can't think of a reason why that would be and no one has given a passable answer

Watch Rachel tonight.

New Meeting Street Strategies poll of North Carolina (GOP pollster)

Biden +3 Cunningham +4

Can't, what is she saying r411?

Michigan Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 51% (+3) Trump (R): 44% (+2)

RMG / October 29, 2020 / n=800 / Online

(% chg w Oct 13)

CO and WA #earlyvote updates posted. Nationally, at least 86.8 million people have voted in the 2020 general election

Probably the last Fox News poll (which is actually a great pollster).

In 2016, Fox’s last poll had Clinton up by about 3%...she won the popular vote by 2 (within the margin of error).

I know we go by the electoral college, but 8% national is a hell of a lot more than 2016.

Jon Ossof on Laurence on msnbc soon.

R413, she talks about how turnout among black and Latino voters is lagging, and the Minnesota deadline ruling.

So we should tune in to Rachel's show tonight to listen to her being a concern troll, R418?

[quote] BETHLEHEM, Pa. — For 17 years, La Mega, a Spanish language radio station serving Lehigh Valley’s rapidly growing Puerto Rican population, has been playing it safe. Sure, they criticized Donald Trump when he called Mexicans “rapists” back in 2015. But they’ve never endorsed a presidential candidate.

[quote] This year is different: La Mega is firmly behind Democratic nominee Joe Biden. And it's not stopping at an endorsement. The station is educating listeners on how to vote safely in the pandemic, how to find ride-share options to the polls and even showing up at campaign events. Biden’s running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, recently appeared on the show.

[Quote] “We are all in this year,” Martinez said. “We're not leaving anything behind. Puerto Ricans are not happy with Trump.”

The district polls show Biden doing well in swing states.

Those same polls were cratering for Hillary in 2016. District polls are the ones to watch.

Biden's going to win. The question is by how much? But the refusal to count mail-in ballots for whatever reason is disturbing. And I have no doubt that there are going to be some fantastics who will throw away or suppress ballots.

(Opinium) Biden +14 (55-41) (UCS) Biden +12 (55-41) (Long Island U.) Biden +11 (47-36) (IBD/TIPP) Biden +6 (51-45) (Swayable) Biden +5 (51-46) (The Hill) Biden +4 (49-45) (Rasmussen) Biden +3 (49-46) Average of today’s polls: Biden +7.9

R360

I'll buy that the 2020s are the same as the 1850s.

The curious thing is that we still have a minority group of backwards uneducated white male hillbillies who can't accept change. Are they the great great grandsons of the Rebels who kept slaves and fought in the Civil War?

Stud Ossof is on Lawrence in a few mins.

A backlog of mail is piling up at a Miami-Dade post office as Election Day nears

In a statement at 9 p.m. Friday, Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Fernández Rundle said she was troubled by the “massive” delay in mail delivery at the South Dade facility. She said she has asked the U.S. Postal Service to inspect every mail distribution center in the county and immediately take any ballots that remain there to the county’s elections department.

Stud is on Lawrence.

They’re considering extraordinary, unprecedented measures to fix the mail backlog in FL. And no, I don’t mean they’re just gonna torch all of it.

Sorry Ossoff is on live in a couple mins. They were doing clips from the debate where he became a future presidential contender.

Lawrence is giving me blue balls making me wait for Ossoff. I wonder if he’ll ask him if he wears a rug. Big debate here on the DL about that.

Lawrence is giving me blue balls making me wait for Ossoff. I wonder if he’ll ask him if he wears a rug. Big debate here on the DL about that.

7 Pennsylvania counties plan to wait until after Election Day to count mail ballots

At least seven counties in Pennsylvania plan to wait until the day after the election to begin counting mail-in ballots.

Their decisions, which could delay Pennsylvania election results longer than already anticipated, led the state's top election official to call on all counties in the state to begin processing mail-in ballots on Election Day.

Still, officials in Beaver, Cumberland, Franklin, Greene, Mercer, Monroe and Montour counties told CBS News they don't plan to count mail ballots before November 4.

All but one of the counties, Monroe, have more registered Republicans than Democrats and supported President Trump in 2016. In total, the counties account for over 550,000 registered voters. In the state's first general election with no-excuse mail-in voting, 3 million Pennsylvanians have applied to vote by mail, about a third of the state's registered voters.

@Afrohispanic @BozziiieTTV Cubans vote at much higher rates than non Cuban Dem Hispanics

[quote] many pages will be devoted to the fact that Joe spent his money telling us why we should support him instead of telling us how Trump is such a bad man (which is what Hillary did).

I'm in PA, and the difference in their ad strategies is huge. In 2016, most of Hillary's TV ads didn't even show Hillary at all -- it was all clips of Trump. Even though Hillary was campaigning hard, her ads made it seem as if she was just phoning it in. Joe's ads are full of images of Joe talking to voters and giving his vision for the country. They're much more uplifting and compelling.

Jesus, R431. They’re hoping a court says stop counting before they get to the nail ballots.

The more I hear about PA, the more it makes Mississippi look functional and sane.

Early vote jumped today in Hidalgo Co (McAllen), as @KamalaHarris @BetoORourke @JulianCastro rallied supporters

County finishes w 187,893 early + mail votes.

There were 173,437 total votes there in 2016

E Day to come.

But would SCOTUS support a ban in counting received ballots, mailed in by 100s of 1000s of voters under the impression at the time that they'd be counted? What legal basis would the court have to disenfranchise all those voters, and throw out all those votes?

[quote] Still, officials in Beaver, Cumberland, Franklin, Greene, Mercer, Monroe and Montour counties told CBS News they don't plan to count mail ballots before November 4.

Biden will win PA, probably by a comfortable margin (as long as the mail-in ballots do, in fact, end up being counted), but it's quite possible that Trump will be way ahead in the early PA count on election night, which will convince Trump's idiot supporters that he's won PA. Then, in the days after the election, as the mail-in ballots are finally counted and it shifts from Trump being ahead to Biden being ahead, Trump and his supporters will insist that it's all a hoax and fake news -- that the election was "rigged" and Trump was "robbed." A similar scenario is likely to play out in other battleground states, too. This is going to be ugly. Really ugly. The only way it won't be ugly is if Biden is winning by a landslide right away, early on election night. But the huge number of mail-in ballots makes that unlikely.

R437, they’ll leverage Kavanaugh’s footnote in his Wisconsin concurrence this week.

On Lawrence, Jon Ossoff asked for just $1 from supporters to flip Georgia’s Senate seats.

As last-minute battles in swing states like Pennsylvania and Minnesota continue to play out over the deadline for counting mail ballots, a federal judge issued a stern order on Friday, demanding improved monitoring and performance of on-time election mail delivery by the United States Postal Service.

Judge Emmet Sullivan of the US District Court for the District of Columbia ordered postal supervisors to implement "extraordinary measures" to improve lagging mail delivery times in 22 postal districts in more than a dozen states. Sullivan also required the USPS to immediately begin providing up-to-date data on election mail and an explanation for any instances in which the on-time delivery rate falls below 90%.

The USPS is also required, per the order, to make a representative available to the court who can "discuss and answer questions about the Postal Service’s current plans and processes as they relate to the processing of Election Mail."

During Friday’s hearing, Sullivan said the court has been overwhelmed by voicemails from people concerned about specific mail delay issues, including messages referencing a viral video of apparently abandoned mail in a post office in Miami-Dade County. Seaver said the agency is currently investigating the issue, and that people who see potential issues with election mail should call the postal hotline. The Postal Service's Office of Inspector General is also fielding complaints.

[quote] But would SCOTUS support a ban in counting received ballots, mailed in by 100s of 1000s of voters under the impression at the time that they'd be counted?

I voted in PA by mail. The PA secretary of state's website promised me that if I requested my ballot by the deadline and filled it out properly, if it was postmarked by Election Day at 8 p.m., and received by Nov. 6, it would be counted. If the state now changes course and says it's not counting my vote, even though I did everything I was told to do, I will take to the streets. This would be blatant voter disenfranchisement of the highest order. It would also send a signal that elections in this country can never again be trusted. It would literally (yes, literally) be the death of democracy.

Oh the Schadenfreude.

[quote]Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp might not be able to vote because he’s in quarantine after close contact with U.S. Rep. Drew Ferguson, who tested positive for the coronavirus Friday. Kemp, who tested negative for the virus, has requested an absentee ballot, his spokesman said. But an absentee ballot requested Friday is unlikely to arrive in the mail before polls close Tuesday. Georgia law and a court ruling required all absentee ballots to be received by county election officials before 7 p.m. on Election Day. Kemp also couldn’t vote in person on Tuesday without violating coronavirus guidelines from the Atlanta-based U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC says people who have been in close contact with someone who has COVID-19 should stay home for 14 days and stay away from others.

This is why everyone was telling people not to vote by mail unless you absolutely had to. Drive the damned vote to an official ballot drop box or vote early or vote in person. Why won't people listen?

Indeed, R443.

Some would call it karma, as well.

😛😛😛

[quote] Jesus, [R431]. They’re hoping a court says stop counting before they get to the nail ballots.

In Republican-dominated counties, that’d be pretty stupid of them. Yes, even Republicans will use mail-in votes. My mom is a registered Republican... and she mailed in her ballot *for Biden* and received confirmation a few weeks ago. They don’t know how the Republican mail-in vote is gonna go, but why would they risk it by shutting it down?

[quote] This is why everyone was telling people not to vote by mail unless you absolutely had to. Drive the damned vote to an official ballot drop box or vote early or vote in person. Why won't people listen?

I didn't want to vote in person because I have risk factors for COVID, and I didn't want to stand in line for hours next to maskless Trumpers at the polling site. And early in-person voting was only available at my county's election office, which is a 30-minute drive away and only open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. M-F, which makes it difficult if you have a job and you can't take time off. Some of us voted by mail because it was the only sensible option for us.

[quote] They don’t know how the Republican mail-in vote is gonna go, but why would they risk it by shutting it down?

Just as they don't care about letting some Republicans die of COVID as long as people of color die more, they don't care about throwing out some Republican ballots assuming that Democrats did as they were told. Since the counties who aren't going to count until later lean heavily GOP, that is what the in-person vote tally will register at the end of Tuesday night-- making it look like 45 will be up by double digits and that will either give them the rationale to end counting or be fodder to instigate their base when the lead switches party.

As long as you did it early enough, it’ll be fine.

It sounds like it’s just going to be another of their miscalculations this election, R448, if that’s really their plan.

This is why they’ll try to stop the mail-in count in Pennsylvania.

90, new high.

The link to The Nation piece at r439 is must-reading for those trying to understand how the sitting SCOTUS might act next week when the challenges to ballot counting start to roll in.

There really needs to be a definitive, consistent way to vote and count votes in future elections, otherwise chaos will continue to ensue. This has to be a priority of a new Biden administration, once in place.

[quote] Since the counties who aren't going to count until later lean heavily GOP, that is what the in-person vote tally will register at the end of Tuesday night-- making it look like 45 will be up by double digits and that will either give them the rationale to end counting or be fodder to instigate their base when the lead switches party.

I get that's the intent but it's widely known that a huge amount of ballots this year are being cast by mail in states that don't normally have such mail-in numbers. People also have a good sense of what the numbers are of requested mail-in ballots and of the mail i- ballots that would be waiting to be opened and counted. So when you have a huge amount of such votes, it's not so easy to justify throwing them all out even if you have Trump election officials and judges helping you. People are very well aware of the shenanigans and really expect Trump and GOP to do that. The media is aware, and party lawyers are aware.

I really want to hope that just the sheer number of mail-ins will make it impossible for the Trump fix to happen in broad daylight.

This may sound strange to some of you, but I think too much time is spent on campaign finance reform and not enough time on election reform. There is no consistency and each state is basically the wild west when it comes to how they conduct their election. We need some uniform federal legislation to fix many of the problems in individual states with voting. It is an embarrassment. In some of these states you would think the 3 Stooges were running the election boards.

The Nation piece linked above mentions that Dem party officials and election experts have urged the media to emphasize and explain these vote count shifts in their Election day reporting so as to avoid confusion. A need for 'careful count' over time should be emphasized, rather than a rush to tally everything up by the end of evening.

Potential vote shifts are routine and to be expected in elections with large mail-in ballot numbers. It's not indicative of fraud (which is the Repubs would love to have everyone believe and think).

Meck County, I’ve got big news. In 2016, 475K Mecklenburgers voted early, by mail, and absentee.

With 1 day of early vote to go, we’re at 96% of our TOTAL 2016 numbers. We are fewer than 18,000 votes away!

If you haven’t already, #Vote early tomorrow before 3PM!

[quote] A need for 'careful count' over time should be emphasized, rather than a rush to tally everything up by the end of evening.

The latter happened in the 2018 midterms, and the media had to eat crow for jumping the gun too early to deny the blue wave in the House races. We'll see if they learned their lesson then.

In any case, the Biden campaign seems to be on the ball about the potential ratfucking. Biden's legal team is led by Obama White House Counsel Bob Bauer.

[Now, days before Tuesday’s election, he is focused on the end game: advising an army of lawyers who are monitoring early voting and preparing for the Trump-Biden showdown. They are working to ensure voter access, combating disinformation and voter intimidation, and preparing for attacks on the legitimacy of the vote. Republican Trump has deployed his own coalition of lawyers to tackle election disputes.

I agree with the above. I think a new Voting Rights act and election reform needs to be one of the top priorities in the Biden admin. After dealing with covid, it should be the top priority.

Nice article about how Georgia is turning purple.

[quote]Still, officials in Beaver, Cumberland, Franklin, Greene, Mercer, Monroe and Montour counties told CBS News they don't plan to count mail ballots before November 4.

Well, it's nice of them to so clearly tell us exactly where they plan to cheat.

I wonder if black and Hispanic voters in some red states are waiting to vote in person on election day because they really, really, really don't trust the government apparatus in place for mailing their ballots. It'll be funny if all the polling that is wrong this year is who exactly is going to show up on actual election day to vote in person. They say Repugs and it ends up being all the black and Hispanic voters in Texas and Florida.

How are you going to get election reform in Trump’s second term?

I think some pollsters assume that the Blue Mailed-in Vote will be overtaken by the Red Election Day In-person Vote from all our farmers, hunters, old Eastern European ethnics, Pennsylvania Dutch, former coal-crackers, and whoever lives west, south, and north of Penn State in Centre County.

Except the pollsters cannot predict how many Blue voters will show up on November third.

Oh, and we aren't in "the Mid-West," no matter the lazy labeling on TV (and the Big "10" notwithstanding), being one of the Original 13 Eastern colonies.

The Lincoln Project reminds us clearly in its very name that the members are, first and foremost, Republicans. They aren't the "FDR Project."

So no, they are not making pro-Biden ads; they are strictly anti-Trump.

They have been very successful in their main propaganda message, which is that Trump is way beyond "normal" Republicanism, with more of the LP members on talk shows (notably Steve Schmidt, but supported by Nicole Wallace and the MJ crew) than actual Democrats, it seems.

But a Biden victory will see the LP revert to: Must balance the budget! Must slash "entitlements"! Trickle-down tax cuts for the 1%! School vouchers! Religious "freedom" for private enterprise! No gun control! "Pro-life"!

And the rest of the inhumane, corporate, and pro-wealth "normal" Republican agenda.

The LP would likely love Trump were he not so much of, in the words of Graydon Carter, " a short-fingered vulgarian."

I’m watching “It: Chapter Two” on HBO Max, and I just realized how reminiscent it is of our present struggle.

There’s a coalition of protagonists, roughly all Democratic archetypes:

- a circumspect, sensitive writer

- a kind independent woman

- a thoughtful Black guy

- a Jewish kid

- a gay guy in entertainment

- I guess a hypochondriac (i.e., someone who needs affordable health insurance)

- a nice-guy professional who knows what it’s like to be bullied (the architect)

They’re all fighting a monstrous clown who’s actually deeply terrifying and evil, who uses a crazy angry redneck bully to advance his plans, and who feeds on fear.

It’s only when the coalition sticks together that they can defeat the clown-monster.

Listen to them yell at the monster. It’s just what we want to tell at Cheeto.

Lol Gavin Newsome apparently saw this before I did.

The director made the connection as well.

[quote] So no, they are not making pro-Biden ads; they are strictly anti-Trump.

This ad, while necessarily anti-tRump, is pretty clearly pro-Biden, considering that both of the the coaches say that they stand with Biden.

I have wondered if the LP would exist if Bernie and Warren would have been the nominee. Joe believes is certain political norms, but more importantly Joe is business friendly. I think most DC insider types see Uncle Joe as a good political reset or back to what they're used to. I think what LP and most DC insiders on both sides want is just for DC to get back to normal. Trump isn't one of them. He has never been accepted by any of them and his brand of in your face transactional carnival barker snake oil salesman trashy deplorable politics is much too vulgar for them.

Lincoln Project founding member Tom Nichols:

"These four years have confirmed to us that Trump’s moral corruption of the Republican Party is total, from top to bottom. Our current alliances with our liberal friends may not be a permanent realignment. But I don’t believe that those of us who opposed Trump will declare that bygones are bygones with conservatives who supported him and go back to partisanship as usual.

Whether it is Nikki Haley or Tom Cotton running for president or Fox’s prime-time lineup bolstering Trump’s underlings, for as long as I have a public platform, I will contend that these are people who betrayed the principles of our system of government for their own gain and that my fellow citizens should refuse to give them votes or ratings."

Reuters: Madame Tussauds in Berlin loaded its wax effigy of Donald Trump into a dumpster, calling it a 'preparatory measure' ahead of the election.

Miami-Dade's numbers from yesterday (all methods):

Democrats: 19,226 (37.1%) (+0.9% from yesterday)

Republicans: 15,193 (29.3%) (-1.3%)

NPA/Others: 17,349 (33.5%) (+.3%)

#flapol #sayfie #election2020

R464, well....they were Republicans so why would they call themselves the FDR Project? The name Lincoln reflects a time when Republicans WERE on the right side of history, and were the good guys. And they have absolutely made pro-Biden ads.

Yes they have made pro-Biden ads but to what effect, R474? Have you actually ever seen one on the air? Because I sure haven’t. The Biden campaign has spent upwards of a billion dollars on ads and I see them all day every day.

R475, there are been a few. All you need to do is go to the Lincoln Project YouTube page to see. I’m in PA, so I’ve seen them on TV, but Lincoln Project mostly targets social media rather than traditional television. But yes, to be fair, in my opinion the Lincoln Project has chosen to take the “low road” in attacking Trump and the Republicans so Joe can stay above the fray and concentrate on his positive message. But here’s a nice pro-Joe Lincoln Project ad.

I hope to god that Swalwell ad airs on TV. I can't believe a political ad made me cry.

It was so great, r477. It really moved me as well.

Florida Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 49% Trump (R): 49%

AtlasIntel / October 29, 2020 / n=786 / Online

h

@USA_Polling 41% republican vs 32% democrat sample. also slightly oversampled 2016 trump voters. i wonder what these numbers actually mean.

I'm no poll analysist, but my unscientific take is that these numbers are good for Biden based on the survey sample.

That twitter feed is truly terrifying, R480. In every way. Take a look at that guys final map-calls for a complete Trump blowout of the EC and takeover of both house and senate.

4,345,427 ballots have been cast in North Carolina, according to data provided by the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

That means 59.1 % of all currently registered voters in NC have already voted in the 2020 election.

Youth, white educated, and Asian voters are turning out. We still need to get more Latinos and African Americans to vote. Something is amiss

See this Wasserman tweet R484.

[quote]I wonder if black and Hispanic voters in some red states are waiting to vote in person on election day because they really, really, really don't trust the government apparatus in place for mailing their ballots.

Jason Johnson said the same thing last night on msnbc. Not sure how right he is but it's something to look out for.

On the other hand, this am msnbc had a chyron that Biden is slightly trailing Trump in AZ.

Obama mans the phones. I love this man!

BREAKING:

New PPP poll of Minnesota

Biden +11

PPP tends to be overzealous for Democrats, but it is very likely Minnesota is safe for Democrats

President (Texas)

Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 48%

10/28-10/29 by Public Policy Polling (B) 775 V

Arf! Can I have a treat?

Poll #135860 #ElectionTwitter

I think the I think that spiking COVID is going to turn some people off voting on Tuesday. Given that Trump has encouraged in person votes, and we know from surveys that more Republicans plan to vote on election day, this could take a chunk out of his numbers. Even if it only turns off 1% of his voters, he is in even deeper trouble.

Karma.

Oh, but if they don't get COVID, how are they going to own the libs?

Trump and Pence have lived in NC over the last three months. Sometimes they make three trips to the state in a week. Biden and Harris have only been their once in recent weeks. It would be a miracle if Biden wins NC

@Nate_Cohn Here's the 538 polling average for PA; Biden up +7.2 pts. on 10/13, now Biden +5.1 pts. OTOH, Biden was just +4.5 pts. on 9/22, so...his lead grew about 2.7 pts., then fell back about 2.1 pts., still up 0.6 pts. from where he was on 9/22. Also, Biden has never trailed in PA...

Highlights of the National Republican Senatorial Committee presentation this past Thursday:

• Trump is losing in Arizona at the moment.

• Trump was losing Alaska at one point in the last month.

• At one point, NRSC strategists believed Biden hit 50 percent in Georgia — a figure they found “terrifying” as they try to defend two seats in the state, which Trump won by five percentage points in 2016.

• Trump won Kansas by more than 20 points in 2016, but now his lead is in the low single digits.

Trump told donors in Nashville last week that he would have his own "team" and law enforcement monitoring polling places, and that his campaign is poised to challenge individual ballots, The Washington Post reported.

The grounds on which the Trump campaign will likely dispute votes have become more apparent in recent weeks. The Republicans in a series of states key to Trump's reelection campaign arguing against the validity of ballots arriving after Election Day as the president continues to trail Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the polls.

Judges nominated by President Trump play key role in upholding voting limits ahead of Election Day

An analysis by The Washington Post found that nearly three out of four opinions issued in voting-related cases by federal judges nominated by the president favored maintaining restrictions.

In light of r496 and other blatant Republican attempts at voter suppression: could the UN have monitored our election?

Because it fucking seems like this would be the time.

[quote]That twitter feed is truly terrifying, R480. In every way. Take a look at that guys final map-calls for a complete Trump blowout of the EC and takeover of both house and senate.

First of all, that's not a single Twitter feed you're referring to; it's a tweet with multiple replies. And the one guy you're referring to, Rob Eno, is a mindless conservative whose "final election map" and forecast is hilariously stupid. He gives every single swing state to Trump for absolutely no reason at all and rather ridiculously claims that Republicans are going to retake the House.

The only way that idiot is correct is if there's something like a 10-point error in the polls at the national, state, and even district level. He doesn't have any data to back that up, of course; he's just mindlessly asserting it.

Four Republican poll watchers were kicked out of an absentee vote counting warehouse in Las Cruces on Friday for “disrupting and intimidating” poll workers, state officials said, leading New Mexico’s elections director to reprimand the state Republican Party.

It's funny. I would never have thought this before Super Tuesday, but Biden/Harris is EXACTLY the ticket we needed.

It was Black women in South Carolina who figured that out before the rest of us. If Joe Biden is sworn in in January, they literally saved this country from itself.

I know how racist DL can be, but I hope we never, ever forget that.

R466 — he’s a bully, clown, imposter, mimic 🌊🤡

If huge numbers of mail-in ballots are rejected because they were delivered after November 3, regardless of state laws and current rulings (but especially if, but for a GOP-controlled court overruling a more generous prior law or state/federal ruling that would have been in effect to allow their being counted), and if it’s likely to make a difference, expect huge protests.

Democrats cancel Central Texas events after Trump supporters surround, follow Biden bus on I-35

Fuck these people r504. They are absolute trash. They don't deserve their American citizenship.

Critical mail delays hit swing states ahead of US election

The Guardian tested postal service speed in the battleground state of Michigan and found delays that may be wider spread

Michigan is an interesting choice for Biden/Obama joint rally. I would have thought they end up in a state with closer polls like PA, AZ, or OH.

FL's totals are super close between Dems and Reps. Sumter's votes are very high while Miami, Broward and Palm Beach are lower than in the RED districts. I am afraid FL might be a lost cause this year yet again so I would prefer Biden focus on lower hanging fruit in PA, GA and the fast slipping AZ.

R507, all the major Dems are going to be in PA on Monday, covering all four corners. The fact is, Biden really needs three states only (in addition to those Hillary won). PA, Michigan and Wisconsin. I think solidifying those states is a good plan.

Slate's Mark Joseph Stern:

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming.

Judge Hanen has already scheduled an emergency hearing for Monday morning—without even giving Harris County a chance to file a response brief. This, too, is extremely concerning. It looks like he may be rushing to throw out 100,000 disproportionately Democratic votes.

Texas Republicans are deploying the theory—recently endorsed by Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh—that only state legislatures have authority over elections. Because the Harris County Clerk implemented drive-through voting, Republicans say all 100,000 ballots must be tossed.

R439, Kavanaugh is a moron.

He uses the word "flipped" to very strongly suggest that a TV Network "calling the winner" has some kind d of legal standing!

So if FOX "calls" the election for Trump, and the later counted mail-in ballots demonstrate otherwise, BK is pre-emptively claiming the TV Network was "right" and the counted ballots are "unfair" because they "flipped" the TV NETWORK'S PREDICTION.

Of course, he will pretend he never wrote or implied any such notion if Trump ain't the one leading on November third.

R469, Well, by definition, they are pro-The Opponent.

R509, that makes me want to cry and vomit. Despicable.

If Dems win, we need dramatic electoral reform. And a rebalanced court that will protect those reforms. Jesus.

More about R509’s post.

A federal judge has ordered the U.S. Postal Service to take “extraordinary measures” to deliver ballots in time to be counted in Wisconsin and around Detroit, including using a priority mail service.

Chief U.S. District Judge Stanley Bastian in Yakima, Washington, issued the order on Friday after being presented with data showing on-time delivery of ballots sent by voters was too slow in Michigan and Wisconsin. They are both “battleground states” in the November election.

On what grounds are they trying to toss the ballots? (Officially -- we all know their real motivation.)

I’m starting to hate the Supreme Court.

R516, it’s all laid out there at the r514 link.

Thanks r518.

Fuckers know they can't win without suppressing the vote.

Wisconsin Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 53% (+2) Trump (R): 45% (-)

Emerson / October 30, 2020 / n=751 / MOE 3.5% / Telephone/Online

(% chg w Sept 8)

Statement from Harris County Clerk @CGHollins:

Drive-Thru Voting is a safe, secure and convenient way to vote. Texas Election Code allows it, the Secretary of State approved it, and 127,000 voters from all walks of life have used it. Our office is committed to counting every vote cast by registered voters in this election. In the event court proceedings require any additional steps from these voters, we will work swiftly to provide that information to the public. #HarrisVotes #HouNews

NEW @DataProgress (B-) Puerto Rico poll October 19-26:

Biden 60%/Trump 23% (+37)

MOE +/- 5%

[quote] Michigan is an interesting choice for Biden/Obama joint rally. I would have thought they end up in a state with closer polls like PA, AZ, or OH.

Because Michigan is closer than polls are reporting.

Don’t watch polls, watch where the candidates go (and don’t go).

#AZsen Poll:

Kelly (D) 51% McSally (R) 47%

Y2 Analytics ( LV,10/15-24)

#New @CNN Polls:

#Arizona: Biden 50, Trump 46 (+4)

#NC: Biden 51, Trump 45 (+6)

#Wisconsin: Biden 52, Trump 44 (+8)

#Michigan: Biden 53,Trump 41(+12)

National Average Lead 3 Days To #ElectionDay

2000: Bush +2 2004: Bush +2.3 2008: Obama +6.4 2012: Obama +0.5 2016: Clinton +2.9 2020: Biden: +8.7

#National Poll:

Biden 55% (+14) Trump 41%

@OpiniumResearch (LV, 10/26-29)

R523, thats what I thought.

Its confusing though. Today's SSRS/CNN poll has a whopping 14 point lead for Biden.

Meanwhile, Trump is also within margin of error in freaking Utah in today's state poll!!!!!

How can UT, so hard hit by COVID-19, vote for the most incompetent candidate?

R526 damn, 2012 was close! No wonder I was nervous.

I don't know this for a fact or anything, but I get the impression that candidates rely on their own internal polling more so than public polling. I don't know if it is more targeted or what. And then there is the whole district polling thing. I remember in 2012 when everyone was panicking that Obama was going to lose, but Obama was as cool as cucumber because of his internals according to articles after that election.

R531, internal polling is much more exact and accurate than the polls we see. Candidates and parties pay a lot of money for them.

Republicans have released a few of their internal polls and they’re bad. Imagine the ones they haven’t released?

Why did they release them r533?

Obama is speaking right now in Detroit and his mic got cut off.

Republicans admitted recently Biden took the lead briefly in Alaska. Yet, it is always shaded deep red. Meanwhile, Michigan and Wisconsin are toss ups yet Biden leads in all polling by high single to double digits.

It’s chaos. Someone cut Obama’s mic.

The Harris county drive-thru voting was approved by the TX Sec of State months ago. It's been publicly posted for months that this would be a voting method. Despite all that, the GOP waited until after the early voting ended to start the ratfucking. Good on the Harris Co. Clerk to publicly set the record straight. I hope they boycott any attempts by the TX court to impose them clearly illegitimate decisions. Disregard and count the votes.

I don't know who DemocracyDocket are but that's what they state on their website:

[quote]On behalf of the DSCC, DCCC, MJ for Texas and Harris County voters, we moved to intervene in a Republican lawsuit challenging drive-thru voting in Harris County.

R538 because Republicans didn’t realize til recently that they might lose the whole fucking state.

And I’m sure that if this were being played even remotely fairly, they would.

*IOWA*

Des Moines Register final poll

Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has pulled ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield.

Ernst (R) 46%

Greenfield (D) 42%

*IOWA*

Des Moines Register final poll

"Donald Trump has taken over the lead as Joe Biden fades"

Trump 48%

Biden: 41%

R541, with this last minute data from FL, IA, AZ, and PA, things are NOT looking very optimistic for Biden.

I think it's time to panic now.

R542, the DMR/Selzer poll of Iowa is definitely a bad poll for Biden. But as Nate Cohn just said, even the Selzer poll can be wrong sometimes.

R542, you’re a putz. Really.

R542, you’re a putz. Really.

Normally I would apologize for a double post. But in this case it is warranted.

R546, I am happy to read Nate Cohn to calm myself. But I am not sure I can listen to his reassurances given that he himself has been wrong more times than Seltzer Poll.

R547, Dave Wasserman says that Iowa may be "coming home" to Trump. But Wasserman also says that he doesn't think Trump will win Iowa by as much as the Selzer poll says:

R546, if Trump has such a big lead in IA, things most definitely NOT looking good for the rest of the Midwest, especially in PA.

WE ARE FUCKED!

R549, it's true that in 2016 the problems Hillary had in Iowa foreshadowed problems for her in Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania.

But until today's Selzer poll, Biden has been more competitive in Iowa (and Ohio) so it's too soon to reach any conclusions.

We'll find out more on Monday when the final Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania comes out.

R549, Pennsylvania isn't the Midwest.

Are you out of your mind, r549? Really??? PA is not the mod-west you piece of shit.

MID-West.

The other polling number that is important to keep in mind is the National number.

As of tonight, Biden's National lead is still at 8.6. That is historically more than enough to win the Electoral College.

In fact, most polling experts think that a National lead of 5 points or more should be enough.

R551, I misspoke but my point stands and then its even worse. The problem isnt just in Midwest.

R554, that's soothing but I dont really trust National polls. State and district polls are the ones that tells the real story.

Iowa, Florida and Pennsylvania are a little ominous for Biden. Trumps base will show. while black and Latinos aren’t coming out as strongly for Biden.

Oh boy. Trump always finishes big. Maybe Biden needs a 24 hour marathon to get his base going on Election Day. He definitely needs to get some extra sauce going for Election Day.

Here’s an article about the early voting number that says that Democrats are on track to do better than they did in 2016, but still have work to do.

[quote] Currently, Democrats have cast 428,833 ballots to Republicans’ 305,176, while No Party voters account for 186,377 ballots. That’s a lead of 123,657 for Democrats. At this point in 2016, Democrats held a lead of 41,881 early votes, but of course, that was in the Before Times.

[quote] Democrats have cast a full 85% of their total 2016 turnout. They’ve cast 161% of their 2016 early votes. Meanwhile, Republicans have banked 53% of their total 2016 turnout. They too have already surpassed their 2016 early vote, sitting right now at a 136% increase.

[quote] No Party voters have cast just 39% of No Party total turnout in 2016, though they are at 118% of their 2016 early vote number.

[quote] [bold] While this sounds quite good for Democrats, keep in mind — they need to have a far higher overall turnout than they got in 2016 when they lost the state by nine points to Donald Trump. Simply getting back to the 506,000 registered Democratic votes from four years ago won’t be enough. They’re on a good path to accomplish that, but don’t look at those numbers and think that Democrats only have 15% more to go.

[quote] Still, you’d certainly prefer to be where Democrats are right now, with far more votes banked than Republicans. [/bold]

R556, National polls are also important because if they show a large lead, they usually indicate which way the Electoral College will go. Hillary had a National lead that was only half that of Biden's at this point 4 years ago.

Eg. the final FOX poll 4 years ago had Hillary at a 4-point lead; the final FOX poll this year has Biden at an 8-point lead.

But yes the district level polling is important because it shows Biden doing better at the district level against Trump than Hillary did 4 years ago. Dave Wasserman has cited internal polling he's seen from both Democrats & Republicans showing noticeable improvements for Biden & the Dems compared to 4 years ago.

R559, there is too much partisanship with all National polls these days, they tend to be inflated for one side or the other. State polls seem to be more levelled.

I am not having a very good feeling about Tuesday.

I’ve caught the panic bug. Fuck

r560, I’m feeling not very good feelings about Tuesday as well.

I'm sorry.....whichever way it goes....I cringe to see the word "Mighty" attached to Joe. Shiver.

[quote]I'm sorry.....whichever way it goes....I cringe to see the word "Mighty" attached to Joe. Shiver.

Good to know you're focused on what's truly important.

R549, Pennsylvania is not in the Mid-West. We are an Eastern state.

Nate Silver does not know basic US geography.

Well this is just a minor thing, but some in Pittsburgh consider themselves Miswesterners. It sounds silly, but they do. In reality, Pittsburgh is the capital of the Appalachians.

Monday's polls will paint a clearer picture of recent developments.

One poll does not mean the sky is falling guys. Maybe some of you should turn of the news and the internet until Thursday or so. Your blood pressure will thank you.

Dave Wasserman

Updated rough personal rankings of the Trump '16 turf likeliest to flip to Biden:

1. Nebraska's 2nd CD

2. Michigan

3. Arizona

4. Wisconsin

5. Pennsylvania

6. North Carolina

7. Georgia

8. Florida

9. Texas

10. Maine's 2nd CD

11. Iowa

12. Ohio

[quote]For a second time in days, thousands of Trump devotees are stranded because the shuttle buses didn’t come to pick them up. This time it’s Butler, PA, which is a state Trump needs desperately.

[quote]What a loser, abandoning the people he is supposed to care about. - Catherine

I have a serious question for Poll Troll or one of his ilk. I have a colleague in Orlando whose wife works for the Sentinel there, and he's claiming that she has "advance knowledge" of a poll to be released on Monday that shows Trump gaining significant ground. He just texted this to me, and I'm wondering whether to believe it or not. He's a flaming Republican and a Trump supporter. He's been gnashing his teeth for months because Biden has been ahead. Is he making this up or it is possible his wife really knows something?

According to Nate Cohn, finals polls from CNN of FL and PA are coming either Sunday or Monday.

But R570, maybe you need to look into getting new friends.

Speaking of new, how about a new thread!

Trump +2 in Florida in the ABC poll. Told you all. Trump is going to win.

It’s over if Biden doesn’t win FL. Cause that mean he lost NC and GA. It’s all about FL. Liberals cry.

He's NOT a friend, R572; we merely went to school together and are in the same line of work. We ask each other to consult occasionally. He may be a piece of shit Trumper but he's very very capable in his line of work.

[QUOTE] It’s over if Biden doesn’t win FL. Cause that mean he lost NC and GA. It’s all about FL.

Uhh, have these thread titles slipped past you, R575? Including the one right there at the top? We don’t need Florida or North Carolina or Georgia to win this election.

R565, If you say so. Over here on the Eastern PA/Jersey border we really don't even think of Pittsburgh at all (never mind York or Erie).

One of the top pieces now.

Trump’s plan.

I think it’s going to be pretty close.

Nate Silver

[quote]I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win

What a wet blanket he is.

R334 How are those polls doing?