Mighty Joe Biden Continues to Lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin Part IV

Thank you for starting this new thread, OP!

Thank you, OP

Nate Silver has an interesting response to an even more interesting and detailed discussion about the DISTRICT polling (the nitty-gritty!) of 2020 and how it compares to district polling in 2016.

Basically, the district-level polling in 2016 showed Clinton’s advantage slipping away in the last few weeks, and this year’s district polling shows massive leads for Biden.

Click on the embedded Tweet that Nate Silver is quoting here, and read the questions from other users and responses from its original author.

It also augurs well for down-ballot races.

Dave Wasserman has been talking about that for weeks. He was one of the few who called Trump winning in 2016, specifically because he saw Hillary start to crater in the district polling. He's saying Trump is being steamrolled this time.

A lot of Election Twitter has talked about internal GOP polls, which are supposedly even worse.

You can tell internal GOP polls are also crappy for them because they aren’t citing them

Good point, R4. Wasserman’s analysis is invaluable.

I think Biden has this, Trump can’t demonize him.

I think the American people are just desperate for a "normal" president again. And just want the Trump side show to be over. And quite frankly, I think there are more than a few Republicans (even though they will never admit it) will breathe a sigh of relief when he's gone.

The people who are are voting for Trump this time are completely lost to us as human beings and are clearly one of those low IQ people that Trump is always going on about.

I won't believe Biden is really in until a couple of months after he's inaugurated. The interesting thing about Hillary was that, even winning the popular vote, she didn't have down-ballot coattails in the way Obama did the first time.

If Biden gets in, what will keep the House and Senate from flipping again at the mid-terms?

One of the few negative things I would ever say about Barack Obama is that he didn't use his "honeymoon" period as well as he could have; he genuinely tried to work across the aisle and find compromise. If Biden wins and has downballot coattails, I hope all the toughest Democrats use the honeymoon period to pass sweeping changes--once people get a taste of it they are less likely to let it go.

Abortion works too well as a wedge issue to ever be fully repealed. But even the walkbacks and restrictions that have gone through need to be lifted.

I don't know why same sex marriage is still an issue after it became the law of the land. Is it just Rs bringing it up again to dog whistle their audience and use it for political gain? Most people, in both parties, are for it.

And why would any leader think it benefits most citizens to get rid of the Post Office and gut Social Security?

I'll never understand it. It's been coming since the GW Bush years (the Reagan years really) but with each of these terrible elections I see my friends more clearly and I almost wish the red states would secede. I continue to lose sympathy for people who vote against my having equal rights, or who vote against their own best interests.

[quote]If Biden gets in, what will keep the House and Senate from flipping again at the mid-terms?

Democrats have to keep voting. We have to change the democratic party from a vote every 4 years party to a party that votes in every election. That's how you get real change and how you get a good slew of candidates.

[quote]If Biden wins and has downballot coattails, I hope all the toughest Democrats use the honeymoon period to pass sweeping changes--once people get a taste of it they are less likely to let it go.

At a bare minimum, they're going to add a star or two to the flag. I figure DC is a foregone conclusion, and depending on how PR's referendum goes on Election Day, that'll probably happen as well.

They may also encourage Guam to finally start on the process.

My issue with DC statehood is aesthetic and logistical. It’s geographically so small that you can’t even draw it on a map. Making it bigger would require the consent of at least two other states, one of which is also geographically quite small. Rhode Island is already pushing it in terms of infinitesimally tiny land mass.

More thought needs to be put into this.

That doesn’t bother me, r12. You have two states—Wyoming and Vermont—with a smaller population than DC.

[quote]My issue with DC statehood is aesthetic

This is the most DL sentence ever written about politics.

Aesthetics. Oh my god.

Even though they're annoying sometimes, we're not giving up any part of Northern Virginia. Personally, I like that DC is not a state. But I would prefer that if they were feeling underrepresented then they should be folded into either Maryland or Virginia with the White House and the Capitol and SCOTUS being a bubble that is its own federal entity. And just give Puerto Rico to Florida.

Thanks OP.

I love the male aesthetics movement

[quote] “I’ve seen enough. I’m calling it for Biden.”

Did Dave Wasserman say this?!

VA doesn’t need DC to turn blue anymore, so There is no political benefit to sweeping DC volts into Virginia. We need two more guaranteed Democratic senators, which means DC needs to be a state in its own right

Now that 60 million people - at least 1/3 of the eligible electorate - have a cast their ballots, aren’t polls increasingly moot? Or does the category of “likely voters” include people who have actually voted already?

56.4 million, R21, I think.

Pollsters ask if people have already voted. If they say yes, they are tossed into the likely voter category

[quote] Even though they're annoying sometimes, we're not giving up any part of Northern Virginia.

It was already given — and returned. The piece of land in Virginia that “finishes the square” of the District’s boundary was ceded to the federal government and then retuned.

I wish we could buy Baja California and Baja California Sur and make them two American states. 4 senators right there.

We must not make DC a state because we cannot draw it! Forget the existential threats to our lives and our country, if it cannot be drawn it must not be! And I agree, Rhode Island is next, it's just too small. And then Michigan is too confusing with that extra piece on top, it's not even attached. Get rid of it. And Hawaii simply must go, very difficult to draw those tiny islands. I think we should just carve out a very simple rectangle as the new USA and just remove the rest. It will be so much more aesthetically pleasing and easy to draw!

Texas is looking good to turn blue.

President Obama speaking live from Miami:

Someone at the Miami rally has a sign that says “Obamacare saved my son.” Why haven’t Democrats done ads and events with a line of real people testifying about how Obamacare saved them and their families? There should be ads all over the place with these stories

In 2018, Democrats won the national House vote by a larger margin (+8.6%) than the GOP had won it by since 1930.

(And that got them fewer seats than the GOP got in 2016, when it won the national vote by 1.1%.)

From the previous thread:

[quote]Young voters are WOKE!

I think the huge Millennial generation has finally reached the point where most of them are the age people are when they start showing up to vote. This may be a real turning point in national politics for the next 50 years.

I pray

I really hope that in addition to retaining the House and retaking the Senate and White House, that the Dems flip a substantial number of state legislatures as well. Does anyone have any polls or analysis looking at that?

These are the kids who have watched their peers and teachers being gunned down by snowflake, entitled, straight white boys or had to go to school, day after day with the fear of dying at the hands of a snowflake, entitled, straight white boy.

These kids aren't gonna burn down a building. They're too smart for that. These kids are gonna vote those mother fuckers OUT!

New Gravis poll of Pennsylvania (Breitbart's pollster)

Biden +7

9.3 days left

New RMG Research poll of Montana

Trump +4

High Turnout scenario

Tie

R19, no—I imagine he’ll say it late on Nov 3. Probably.

You know that’s his catchphrase on election nights, right? It’s one of the most delightful things on Twitter. While major outlets are waiting and being extra cautious, Dave calls elections early-ish. And he’s always right.

[quote]I think the huge Millennial generation has finally reached the point where most of them are the age people are when they start showing up to vote. This may be a real turning point in national politics for the next 50 years.

Youth voting numbers have OBLITERATED the early voting turnout numbers from 2016. In MI, it's increased 1900%

Those youth numbers look good, but they need to be placed in context of what percentage they are of the current early vote versus the past percentage. If they are still the same or similar percentage, it’s not impressive

PA voters need to vote now! Stop waiting!

Pennsylvania’s Republican Party has filed a new request that the U.S. Supreme Court overturn the three-day mail ballot deadline extension. The court had rejected that previous request in a 4-4 tie on Monday.

I’m very hopeful, r40. I’ve always voted and been a liberal, but I never felt the urgency I feel today about getting rid of the current president. I voted for Carter in my first election. I have a few nieces, and they and their friends are completely fired up about voting. One voted early (as did her friends) for Biden, and the other is so adamant about ousting Dump that she will vote on Election Day and stand in line as long as it takes. Her theory is that Dump will try and erase the mail in ballots so she doesn’t want to risk it. I think Social Media has fried up this generation and given them an up close look at Dump’s misdeeds, in a way that hadn’t happened in the past.

They are the slimes of the Earth, r41. They can’t win outright, so they’ll resort to this shit.

Nate Silver: What we can say from the early voting data is that Democratic turnout is likely to be very high. Will Republican turnout be very high also? Yes, I *think* so, very likely. But it's easier to be certain that Democratic turnout will be very high because of the early voting numbers.

[quote]That doesn’t bother me, [R12]. You have two states—Wyoming and Vermont—with a smaller population than DC.

I didn't mean small in terms of population. I meant small in terms of square footage.

[quote]We must not make DC a state because we cannot draw it!

I didn't say we shouldn't make DC a state. I said more thought needs to be put into it.

R45, square footage doesn’t matter in the least.

r45 you said it bothers you "aesthetically" and is too small to be drawn as if that should actually be evn the slightest consideration. We know you meant square footage and that is exactly what you have been ridiculed for. Are you really doubling down on your idiocy?

Harry Enten:

It's quite clear that Trump's dragging down GOP senators/House candidates with him... In the 20 or so districts that Trump/GOP house candidates won in 2016 & Dem House candidates won in 2018, the GOP is a clear favorite in exactly 0.

NEW: @JoeBiden will be traveling to GEORGIA on Tuesday. More details to come.

And Harris was there yesterday.

They must know they can get it, or they wouldn't be wasting money.

Not just money, but time

Now, if one or both go to Texas next week....

They Should go to Texas. I’m torn about whether NC is not worth it because it’s a lost cause

#National Poll:

Biden 50% Trump 44% Jorgensen 1% Hawkins 1%

Echelon Insights (10/16-20, LV)

I’m really torn about this. My feeling is that Joe and Kamala should concentrate on the three states Hillary lost to give Dump the win—PA, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Jill Biden is going there on Monday. When the Biden camp emailed their numbers a while ago, they had Georgia looking better than even FL (which they had us winning). Their internals must still be really good there.

Obama looking good in that picture, r28. Call me, Barack!

Going to GA ⬆️

Where in the world do you get that NC is a lost cause r53? All the decent rated polls show Biden up there by a few, and 538 says Biden is slightly favored. Plus there's a close senate race there that could use all the up ballot help it can. Where do people come up with this BS?

If there is any positive to come out of the last 4 years, it's that people have engaged with the political system in a way that they haven't since... ?

We are going to take this democracy back.

Nc Election is the guru for NC elections, and foresaw Trump overperforming polls in 2016. His current projections are very disappointing for NC based on the early vote. Moreover, since 2010, Republicans have overperformed polling By a significant margin because of continuous hyperenergized Republicans and too many registered Democrats who vote Republican. Also, Democrats just aren’t getting their urban, youth, and people of color base out to vote in the numbers we need to counter hyperzealous rural white Republicans. Nc is a state of countless small towns

NC Election Project

That is very disappointing R61 / R62. You would think that after four years of this utter nonsense and ridiculous chaos people in NC would have wised up.

I'm not disputing his conclusions outright r61, but his Twitter account that you linked to has only 56 followers. How is that possibly someone who is considered a guru? Most of his tweets have no replies or one at best.

It's just occurred to me that the media hasn't paid nearly as much attention to Kamala as I'd expected, given that she's the first black woman to feature on a presidential ticket. I thought she would receive roughly as much coverage as Palin, who overshadowed McCain. The media have got it the right way round this time - the candidate should be the focus, not the running mate.

[quote] If Biden gets in, what will keep the House and Senate from flipping again at the mid-terms?

This will be the challenge. Biden will need a Democratic Congress for a full term to effect meaningful change. We need to make sure he has it. Democrats cannot fall back into complacency. Our lack of engagement cleared the way for that abomination to be voted onto the Supreme Court this Monday. Never again...

Beware of trolls, people. I have R53, R60 & R61 blocked. And I only block clear racists and right wing trolls.

If you look at the Senate seats up in 2022, the map strongly favors Democrats.

Nine days left: These numbers haven't moved really with the possible exception of Ohio. The states can be grouped as follows: Must have (lead 6+): NV/NH/MN/PA/WI, 66 EV's Nice to have (lead 2 - 4): AZ/FL/NC, 55 EV's Landslide Territory(tied): IA/TX/GA/OH, 78 EV's

Same, R67. I blocked R53 and R61/62.

Wisconsin Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 54% (+4) Trump (R): 43% (+1)

Gravis / October 23, 2020 / n=677 / MOE 3.8% / IVR

(% chg w July 22)

MI, MN, and WI seem pretty solid?

Don’t jinx it dude

538 released a really good podcast this week about poll convergence as we near the election.

The basic premise is that in their final polls, pollsters will likely fiddle with the numbers to get as close to possible as the average so that they don't look "off." So expect some wild swings next week from Rasmussen.

They also talked about the divergence between national, state, and district polls. State polls don't look as strong for Biden as national polls do, but district polls look way better for Biden than either.

They theorize that there is less attempt to fiddle with the numbers in district polls, so they may actually turn out to be more accurate. For example, if a pollster comes back with Biden +13 in Wisconsin, they may massage the numbers downwards so that the poll is not thrown out as an outlier.

There is less incentive to do that in district polls because fewer people pay attention to them, and there is a very short memory of them.

In summary: things are looking very good for Biden.

And the key to district polls when considering their accuracy, is to remember that they were basically the only indicators that Clinton had slipped badly in the week or two before Nov. 8, 2016. They were accurate.

Thanks r74 that was very interesting and you articulated it splendidly. I wish there would be a written summary of 538 podcasts as it takes so much less time to read than to listen. On their site I often click on what looks like an interesting article only to disappointingly learn that its a lengthy podcast instead.

Stupid question—why aren’t district polls used to assemble state polls?

R64, how is it possible that you don't know that serious people don't spend their time on twitter, nor do they care about it.

It's totally unnecessary and doesn't add anything useful to most people's lives.

[quote] If Biden gets in, what will keep the House and Senate from flipping again at the mid-terms?

There will be more Gen Zs able to vote in 2022 and Millennial turnout will possibly be higher as well. GOP is losing a generation of young people and will be doomed if they do not make fundamental changes about their premise.

Good question r77. From what I theorize: districts aren't as well polled as States as a whole are. Usually only very competitive districts get polled. In our hyper gerrymandered environment, there aren't enough competitive districts to bother with it. Ohio, for example, gets polled a lot as a state, but very few of the 16 districts are actually competitive. Maybe three, four, maximum. And in attempting to extrapolate the district results to the state at large, you run into problems of potentially misreading local politics.

538 made a really good point about 2016, too. A few days before the election, they actually had Trump at a 35% chance to win, and that fell to 29% on election day. I remember us talking about that here. That movement downwards was all based upon final polls converging towards the mean. Pollsters were betting on a Hillary win, and didn't let the actual numbers get in the way of that.

To prevent a 2022 or 2024 blood bath, I think the Democrats have to come in bold, and swinging. I think their top two immediate priorities must be getting COVID under control, and fixing the electoral system (expand the court, DC/PR as states, security, a new voting rights bill). The second point will have far longer lasting impact than blowing their political capital on healthcare, for example.

We can't deal with 8 million people infected with Covid if we don't have fucking HEALTHCARE.

Let's wait to see what kind of majorities we end up with, if donald doesn't just fucking kill us all on Nov. 4, when he loses.

Nate Silver has really been a Concern Troll for this entire election. The Canadian site I mentioned earlier had a live stream on Twitch and YouTube going over the British Columbia provincial elections that were held today. First, their predictions were quite good: they called the NDP majority pretty dead on, and only missed one riding, where the Greens had a surprise victory over the incumbent Liberal MLA. So that makes me a bit more confident in their analysis for the US elections.

They also answered questions about their model, which gives Biden GA, TX, IA, and OH. One of the things that they mentioned is that there hasn't been a big shift away from Biden when they switched from an RV model to an LV model, which normally favors Republicans.

I'm scared to get my hopes up, but I am allowing myself to have some.

R83 LeanTossup? They seem very confident. Hope they're right. I'm also cautiously optimistic about GA and TX though the polls are really neck to neck. Don't care about OH and IA coz they're shifting red anyway.

Putin doesn't want Biden to be President, talking about phasing-out the petroleum industry. All Russia has is oil, and if the world turns to green/renewable energies- they will shrivel to nothing.

You can bet he will have his hackers working overtime on Election Day. We can't let him pick our President again.

If Biden wins, Dems can’t forget the 2022 midterms. It needs to become a huge deal.

If Biden can't win without Florida in this stupid, corrupt country- why not just let Florida pick the President?

Chill, r82.

If the Democrats don't put electoral reform front and center, the next time they lose, any progress on healthcare will be chipped away like with Obamacare. The current Supreme Court will kill anything they try to do. Hell, Obamacare might be killed before Biden is even sworn in.

Aside from the Idiot himself being so awful, Healthcare for Americans is a centerpiece of the Biden campaign.

It can't and won't be ignored, it must be dealt with immediately.

R87, if I recall Steve Kornacki correctly, Trump has to win Florida and PA to stay alive electorally. I do not think Biden needs Florida, because he is likely to pick up Rust Belt states Trump won narrowly last time.

Biden isn't getting the rust belt.

Hunter has a really nice cock. I wonder if Mighty Joe is hung like his son?

My (very reasonable) prediction right now is:

Mi/Wi: Biden>5%

PA: Biden 2-3%

AZ: Biden 1-2%

NC: Biden <1%

GA: Trump <1%

IA: Trump 1-2%

FL: Trump 2-3%

OH/TX: Trump 4-5%

Amanpour & Company: Can We Trust the Presidential Polls Right Now?

R91, he holds leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, and in Pennsylvania as well.

Texas Poll (University of Texas: Biden 48% over Trump 45%

Lucy holding the football for Charlie comes to mind.

My head tells me that the polls probably are more credible and trustworthy this time, but my heart is holding back until Joe Biden is raising his right and the last syllable of the Presidential Oath of Office exits his mouth.

right hand^

Meanwhile Trafalgar Group continues to be contrarian.

OCT 24, 2020

Trafalgar Group C-

773LV

Arizona Trump +3

Florida Trump +3

Michigan Trump +3

In 2016 Trump won South Dakota by over 30% points.

Today's poll from high rated right-leaning Mason-Dixon brings some bad news for Trump. A drop by 20 points in SD means he most likely will lose TX and a slew of other red states.

OCT 19-21, 2020

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy B+

625LV

Biden 40% Trump 51%

Trump +11

Early votes in Texas has already surpassed 75% of the total 2016 vote count. We still have a over a week until Election Day.

Texas has the highest youth voter turnout in the country. And voters 18-29 are voting at a much higher rate in 2020 than in previous years to begin with.

South Dakota, the state that loves him so much he had the 4th of July celebration in, has gone from +30 Trump to +11 Trump?

That is astonishing. What are these trolls even TRYING to do by saying his base has grown? Clearly he has lost a huge chunk of his base.

BREAKING: The conservative New Hampshire Union Leader Newspaper just endorsed Joe Biden for President.

THIS IS BIG. this paper has never endorsed a Democrat before

Hays Co, TX (Austin Suburbs) has eclipsed its entire 2016 turnout just via early voting with a week to go. The county went for Trump by 1 in 2016, but Beto carried it by 15 in the 2018 Senate election.

Several other Texas counties are also just shy of their 2016 turnouts.

Even with 952 people interviewed in Feb./March and again in recent days, I can count movers from Biden (-1) to Trump (1) or the reverse on my fingers. 2.4% go from undecided -> Biden vs. 0.6% for Trump. 6/N

Texas in general is already at 80% of total votes cast in 2016.

front page of the @dallasnews:

Biden 48, Trump 45 in TX 👀

That's amazing to hear about young voters in Texas especially since Gov Abbott made it so difficult to do so for so many. Fingers crossed they are voting blue!

CBS: Biden up four points in North Carolina…

And the contest even in Georgia.

CBS News Battleground Tracker: Our estimates show Joe Biden with just a two-point edge over President Trump in Florida…

Just one more reason to expect record turnout this #election2020 day.

Weather models, at this time, predicting little/no precip across much of the lower 48.

Biden's campaign made a 6 mil ad buy for this last week..hoping for a blue TX!

Trump's campaign has canceled TV ad buys worth $24.6 million slotted in 10 competitive states, while Biden's campaign has added $16.3 million worth of ads in 13 states leading up to Election Day, according to Advertising Analytics.

Presidential National Average Lead 9 Days To E-Day:

2004: Bush +2.8 2008: Obama +7 2012: Romney +0.9 2016: Clinton +4.7 2020: Biden: +9.1

Presidential Polling:

AZ (n=472): Trump: 50% Biden: 47% Jorgensen: 2%

FL (n=773): Trump: 49% Biden: 47% Jorgensen: 2%

MI (n=723): Trump: 49% Biden: 47% Jorgensen: 2%

Trafalgar / October 24, 2020 / IVR

Michigan Polling:

Presidential: Biden (D): 55% (+4) Trump (R): 42% (-)

Senate: Peters (D): 52% (+3) James (R): 41% (+2)

Gravis / October 24, 2020 / n=679 / MOE 3.8% / IVR

(% chg w July 22)

With these turn outs and polls, I feel like I can FINALLY relax now knowing that Biden is going to win by a landslide. I never thought I would see the day before maybe 2030 when Texas and Florida would turn blue, but it's really happening!!!!! I am getting the feels, y'all.

Don't get complacent.

I mean, I do generally feel more 2008 than 2016, but 2016 was so bad, and everything that followed was even worse than I expected, so I'm scared to let my hope come through too much.

Relax R120. If you have voted, you can be complacent. Trump is toast. We have never, ever seen this type of early voting. We have it in the bag. Every serious news outlet from twitter to CNN says we are winning and for once I am going to believe it! I'm tired of being so anxious. Biden has this.

R83

The reason that likely voters aren't more Republican now than they have been in past polling is that this time anyone who has reported as already voted is lumped into likely, with Democrats having a serious advantage there.

[quote]Don't get complacent.

OMG, R120, you are the FIRST poster to warn that! JUST when I was feeling SO complacent that I might not even vote for Joe after all, since it's already a done deal.

Thanks for SAVING me and COUNTLESS OTHERS from our COMPLACENCY, Sage One at R120, with knowledge NEVER BEFORE EXPRESSED on ANY thread here on Datalounge!!!!!!!!

@PpollingNumbers @trafalgar_group Meanwhile, back here on Earth, the RCP poll averages:

Michigan: Biden +7.8 Florida: Biden +1.5 Arizona: Biden +2.4

Trafalgar is openly mocked, perhaps more than Ras, for their partisanship.

Rasmussen has like half of black voters giving Trump positive approval rating now

I just can't bring myself to fully believe Trump will be defeated. 2016 stung too deep. Holding my breath but it seems like 2020 really has shown how craven and selfish many Americans are.

Latest @CBSNews polling of Black voters:

People get paid a lot of money to make politics more complicated than it is.

Trump is going to lose, and it's not going to be close, because people aren't stupid enough to want to continue living like this.

#BidenHarris2020Landslide

NEW @IBDinvestors/ TIPP (A/B) National poll October 20-24:

Biden 51.6% (+7.2) Trump 44.4% Jorgensen 1.6% Hawkins 0.8%

Biden 51.3% (+6.8) Trump 44.5%

MOE +/- 3.2%

@HockeyTarheel @PpollingNumbers @trafalgar_group North Carolina:

Biden +1.8

Remember, Polls are meant to shape opinion and not reflect it.

Youth voter turnout in Texas is THREE TIMES higher at this point than it was in the last presidential election.

2016: 207,679 2018: 250,424 2020: 665,883

The #YouthVote has fundamentally changed the electorate of Texas.

When it comes to all these estimates on early voting that are based on party affiliation, one thing that occurred to me is that seniors are more likely to vote by mail than others, and seniors are also probably the group most likely to switch to Joe this year even if they're typically R or I. Since Trump wants them dead and all. So that could mean a few more Democratic votes than it appears.

Dr. Jill shares a recipe

A lot of the increase in new Texas voters is thanks to Beto and his campaign registering people in 2017-early 2020 and encouraging those people to vote.

He has to be proud of the turnout Texas is getting despite abbott's bullshit.

True, but we need to increase turnout in hispankc border and center city counties like Harris and Dallas to offset the extremely high turnout in Republican suburban and exurban counties

Latino Biden voters headed to the polls in Nevada. Pretty cool entrance and they look happy to be voting for Joe!

[quote] More black voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia (201,889) than voted in total in the 2016 presidential election (193,993). There are still 9 days of voting remaining.

R119 Florida will stay a swing state for the years to come. Texas will be bluer and bluer in the next several election cycles.

Biden will be campaigning in Georgia next Tuesday. Harris will be in Texas next Friday.

Legend m says that if the Washington football team wins their last home game before the election then the challenger wins the election in this case Biden is going to win the election. #WashingtonFootball

Next Friday is the last day of EV in Texas. Harris should go there earlier.

Biden could go there too if Trump can swing 3-4 rallies daily. Texas deserves the effort.

If TX turns blue or at least the Dems take the State House, all credit goes to Beto and his GOTV organization.

This is worth watching.

I wonder what state the dad lives in r145.

JUST IN: A Boston ballot drop box in Copley Square was set on fire early this morning, according to the state.

122 ballots were inside the box, and 87 are still able to be processed. Affected voters will be mailed a replacement ballot by the city or can vote in person.

I wish Florida would secede from the nation. They always screw up the vote, the count, and they cheat. Don't ever count on Florida for diddly.

[quote]Texas will be bluer and bluer in the next several election cycles.

I've heard it said before that Texas is actually a blue state where the blue part never votes.

At least this election doesn't necessarily rest on Florida. It'll be great if Biden can carry it, but not necessarily fatal if he doesn't.

We still need the texas Hispanic border counties to turn out more

I have PTSD from 2016 and won't predict a Biden landslide because of that shock but certain things point toward his victory (besides the state polls).

1). 2016 was a relatively low turnout election. Trump won fewer votes than Romney did in 2012. Everything points to 2020 being a high turnout election.

2). Democrats won the mid-term elections in 2018, except Florida, and did so with high turnout and the Democrats won gubernatorial races in Louisiana and Kentucky in 2019. The left is very motivated to vote.

3). The collapse of the Third Party options. Jo Jorgensen and Howie Hawkins are much weaker than Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. And the Green Party is off the ballot in some key states like Wisconsin. The Left is much less splintered.

Harry Enten:

BTW, it is quite conceivable Trump could win FL even if he lost by a healthy margin nationally. The GOP just did that in 2018.

Very clear that Joe does not need FL to win. I expect FL to be called for Trump on election night, and I expect not to be concerned about it.

PA might be close. MI and WI won't be. There are plenty of reasonable ways that Joe can win without EITHER FL or PA.

Some early voting Florida numbers from Dave Wasserman:

1. Yes it does, w/ 61k votes cast already.

2. I think Trump needs at least 67% in Sumter (maybe 68-69%) to have a shot to win FL.

3. If the first batch of early votes reported is >75k and Trump is only taking ~61%, he'd have a hard time getting to 67% w/ election day votes, imo.

According to Fox News Trafalgar is the only correct poll for this election season. People need to ignore all of the others.

Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics is on their channel quite often, so I'm wondering when they will tell him to his face that he's a fucking hack!

R155/Poll Troll, what’s the significance of these numbers? It’s not a large amount—I looked at the tweet itself and I’m still confused.

this is very very encouraging—

[quote] More black voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia (201,889) than voted in total in the 2016 presidential election (193,993). There are still 9 days of voting remaining.

Yeah that conversation Wasserman is having about Sumter Co., FL, is confusing because I don’t know where they’re getting the raw numbers (registered voters/already voted) and what the target (total number of votes) Trump needs to reach. A LOT to unpack there. I think I won’t waste any more time trying to figure it out.

Trump will be re-elected, Republicans will hold the senate and Democrats will hold the house. Nothing will change.

R160 Isn't it too early for you to post Alexei? It's only 7am in Vladivostok go back to bed

r161, I'm realistic. I know this country and how fucking stupid it is.

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Chip in any amount to attend our "I Will Vote" concert in support of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Democrats across the country. Hosted by George Lopez and Ana Navarro, the concert will feature performances by:

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And special guests Joe Biden & Jill Biden, Kamala Harris & Doug Emhoff, La La Anthony, Jaime Camil, Margaret Cho, Whoopi Goldberg, Dave Grohl, Armie Hammer, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Helen Mirren, Maren Morris, Billy Porter, Amy Schumer, will.i.am, Bobby Berk, Karamo Brown, Tan France, Antoni Porowski & Jonathan Van Ness, and more.

You can catch it exclusively on Sunday, October 25th at 8:00 p.m. ET.

R162, I too am no longer surprised at the sheer ignorance, stupidity, lack of critical thinking skills, much less the black hole of common sense in Americans. However, I think you’re wrong. There are fortunately more of us than them. We just need to turn out voters. Get ONE person to go vote!!! Preferably someone young, a POC, working class, any minority really.

PollTroll, you may not be able to answer this, but I’m hoping others can chime in and complete the picture. Which swing states count the mail in ballots before hand or on the same day as Election Day? I live in Pennsylvania and honestly I don’t know the answer. We know NY and California are blue so it doesn’t matter. Also, from what I’ve seen, Florida counts the mail ins quickly. How about NC or Texas? Or Arizona? Anyone know?

R165. This has been shared already.

Not the PollTroll, but PA counts on election day, not early. Florida and Texas count early, which is why if Biden wins Florida we might know before 11/3 is over and Trump can start screaming "rigged" "fake news" or shit his diaper and die, whatever his plan is.

[quote]f Biden wins Florida we might know before 11/3 is over and Trump can start screaming "rigged" "fake news" or shit his diaper and die, whatever his plan is.

I hope Faux News livestreams it.

If FL goes blue, I plan to switch to Faux and GLOAT at the meltdowns

R165, this link has a grid that shows when each state starts counting votes.

My bet is that it's the Senate races that take a while rather than President.

If the Florida panhandle was made part of Alabama, Florida would be blue.

Speaking of Dave Wasserman....

[quote] If you're looking for a horse race narrative right now, you're not going to find it here. There was a time when it was easy to imagine this race going much differently. Eight days out, it's much, much harder. I've seen...almost enough.

[quote] Women from the Latinx community are being hurt more by the coronavirus pandemic than any other group. Not only are they facing higher infection rates but many are also losing their jobs or getting their work hours reduced.

[quote] Unemployment hits Latinx women harder because they are more likely to be the head of a single family and are the primary caretakers at home, caring for sick relatives and helping children navigate distant learning in this pandemic — an added stress, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

[quote] Latinx women are heavily employed in some of the industries hardest hit by COVID-19. In the hospitality industry alone 14.6% of Latinas make up the workforce, higher than whites at 9%, as well as Latinx men at 11.6%. Retail and "other services" also employ a large percentage of Latinas, according to the Economic Policy Institute. In April one in five Latinx women workers were unemployed.

Latinx women are being hurt by “Latinx”

Dems have seen a swing of 20-30 points in their direction in every race since 2017. All red states are closer this time. Why would blue/purple swing states be close? It doesn’t add up. He’s lost support, not gained.

Covid could have a significant effect on those in quarantine . Dems might stay home, while Repubs will stand in line no matter how many they might infect.

From the Atlanta Journal Constitution:

GEORGIA: Biden 47%, Trump 46%

2016's NC electorate saw 69% of registered voters cast ballots (total of 4.7M votes)

This year, 69% = 5M potential voters

If NC's Nov. 3 electorate is 5M (total # of ballots cast):

3.1M+ represents 63% of NC's potential electorate has already voted

#ncpol #ncvotes

[quote] All red states are closer this time. Why would blue/purple swing states be close? It doesn’t add up. **He’s lost support, not gained.**

Maybe your theory is flawed.

NEW @YouGovAmerica/@ElectionsCenter Poll (LV, 10/13-21),

Among those who have not yet voted:

WISCONSIN Trump 57% (+18) Biden 39% . PENNSYLVANIA Biden 59% (+21) Trump 38% . MICHIGAN Trump 57% (+22) Biden 35%

We have a whole thread on the "those who have not yet voted" poll numbers listed at R180:

@YouGovAmerica / @ElectionsCenter Poll:

Among those who already voted:

#WISCONSIN Biden 73% (+47) Trump 26% . #MICHIGAN Biden 75% (+52) Trump 23% . #PENNSYLVANIA Biden 87% (+79) Trump 9%

(LV, 10/13-21)

Wow, this numbers are incredible, r182. And there’s still time left for early voting in those states.

[quote]Among those who have not yet voted

The only question I have is, what are they waiting for? I guess I don't understand the thinking behind waiting until November 3 if you don't have to. Am I alone in this?

R184, a lot of it is just needless procrastination: busy with errands, can't bother to add voting to that list.

[quote]The only question I have is, what are they waiting for?

The Trump cult has been indoctrinated with the belief that mail-in voting is a terrible, no-good, very-bad idea. They're waiting to stand in line on election day.

[quote] I guess I don't understand the thinking behind waiting until November 3 if you don't have to.

Also, I think for some people it makes lying easier. I used to work (in Manhattan) for a woman who lives in Staten Island. While she personally was liberal enough to vote blue, I'm sure most of her family and friends were not. So she HATED talking politics and, I bet, will not vote until the last possible second if she does vote at all. That gives her the excuse to dismiss the conversation or at least keep it in the realm of hypothetical.

That’s a bogus reason to wait

From YouGov:

MICHIGAN: Biden 52%, Trump 42% PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 44% WISCONSIN: Biden 53%, Trump 43%

Ballot design issues kill me.

Overseas voting. Who's the hottie at the beginning of the segment, on the left?

In a last-ditch effort to shore up support for Trump in the black community, Jared Kushner told Fox & Friends this morning that black people have to "want to be successful."

“One thing we’ve seen in a lot of the Black community, which is mostly Democrat, is that President Trump’s policies are the policies that can help people break out of the problems that they’re complaining about,” said the man who got where he is through inherited wealth and elite connections. “But he can’t want them to be successful more than they want to be successful.”

R192, being told you don’t want to be successful, so Trump can’t help you in spite of yourself, is really a winning argument.

Narrowing. Get out and vote now.

According to those polls, R194, Trump is definitely trending upwards.

NEW: Biden widens his lead in battlegrounds, according to Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

MICHIGAN: Biden 52 Trump 42

WISCONSIN: Biden 53 Trump 44

PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52 Trump 44

According to the newest RASMUSSEN POLL, R195.

That’s all.

I know it's an outlier but that Rasmussen poll is terrifying to us hand-wringing Marys. I'm really going to be on tenterhooks for the next eight days.

It’s Rasmussen

Harry: BTW, it is quite conceivable Trump could win FL even if he lost by a healthy margin nationally. The GOP just did that in 2018.

MikeInAustin, what other polls show Trump “trending upward”?

Trump has three Pennsylvania rallies today. Biden has no rallies or events today

[quote]I guess I don't understand the thinking behind waiting until November 3 if you don't have to.

In most stares you are only given time off to vote on Ekection Dau, not for early voting.

Ugh *Election Day

Democrats are playing in a battleground map of 17 states—when all they needs to do is flip the right three.

On Biden/trail, @mikememoli: "When you look at his campaign travel since DNC-He's only spent half of them in public doing campaign events. The campaign said they have been trying to balance both the medical and political necessities of campaigning safely." #AMRstaff

Pennsylvania ‼️ - PA ain’t playing.

early voting by party affiliation: Democrats - 1,193,887 Republicans - 355,317 Independents - 152,057

Trump here today for 3 rallies. Crush him! Get out our vote everywhere. Run it up! Vote them all TF out!

R205, but the Democrats could lose all of them if they don’t show up. Polls don’t count, voting does.

I think what happened the first few days of early voting is that all the really engaged, anxious-to-vote people couldn’t stand it any more and they voted right away. They wanted to get rid of Trump so badly they stayed in twelve hour lines just to get it over with. Those people all voted by now.

Now, the people that are left are less engaged. They might still vote early, but they think, it’s ok if I don’t because Election Day is still available. Then when Election Day comes and the line is a mile long, they may just see that and say, forget it. Especially if it’s cold and they have to wait outside.

Ask your friends if they voted and if not, drag them by the hair if you have to. Some states are not having great turnout. Including swing states. And we have to defeat Trump by a huge margin, the bigger the better. If you’re in a blue state and your friends say, why bother, my vote doesn’t count, remind them we have to take Congress back and Trump needs to be sent packing by the largest possible margin. It’s harder to fight it out in court if you lost by millions of votes. Judges don’t necessarily want to overthrow an election landslide.

In my state, Nevada, Trump filed a lawsuit trying to get mail in ballots thrown out. It won’t go through, but judges need to see what the people’s intentions are. You can’t just throw half the votes away and get away with it. A few thousand, maybe.

Biden needs to campaign every single day that remains. There are only 7.5 days left? Surely, he can campaign and have events during such a period short. He needs to be posted nonstop in PA, WI, and FL, maybe some NC

Short period

I think Biden has a Better chance of winning Texas and Georgia, than winning North Carolina and Florida.

You know what ought to encourage some of these people to stand in line and vote early, for Biden? Today the Republican Senate will succeed in ramming through Handmaid Barrett. So they can take away a woman's autonomy over her body, LGBT rights, protection of pre-existing conditions and insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act.

They're going to have another superspreader party at the White House to celebrate it, too.

Does that piss you off? It pisses ME off. If it pisses you off, too, encourage people who have yet to vote for Biden to get off their asses and do so. Mask up and drive them to the polls. Donate to Act Blue, even if it$2]. If you're broke like Anusmouth, take your rage out in a positive way and volunteer to phone bank. Don't tweet or post here! Take it to the VOTERS!

Don't walk away from thos one with a shred of regret, my friends. Not one shred!

[quote]Trump has three Pennsylvania rallies today. Biden has no rallies or events today

Biden has been to PA seven times, nine if you count the town halls.

He's got Georgia tomorrow while Obama is in Florida, then Joe is in Florida Thursday. Kamala is doing Nevada tomorrow and Arizona Wednesday, and is reportedly scheduling a Texas date soon, as well as some Biden dates somewhere, but they're either undecided or not saying where.

Plus there are a ton of ad buys, of course.

There are way too many people that are still supporting him. He has done NOTHING for those people. Their measly tax break is set to expire.

The aca is going down. . There will be no protection for pre-existing conditions.

There is no wall, no factories, no coal, the tarrifs failed and now unemployment is through the roof. The pandemic was ignored and the republicans profited from trading stocks. Everything is expensive and no everyone is going to be stuck back home again. China is stronger than ever. America is weaker than ever. The republicans have accomplished NOTHING for the average person in 4 years. Roads and bridges are crumbling. The environment is more polluted than ever.

The only praise they can heap on the president is that maybe their 401ks got a little bigger but that was paid for by the TWENTY TRILLION DOLLAR NATIONAL DEBT. That money is not real.

4 more years of dysfunction and chaos will not own the libs. Deplorable quality of life will get much worse.

Kamala will be in Texas Friday.

I don’t know what more you want from these people. There’s a pandemic and they are being responsible.

Stop spreading the right wing trope that Biden is not campaigning. That is a lie.

Beto is wearing a t-shirt emblazoned with "TOP". (Texas Organizing Project) Andrea on MSNBC today.

Rasmussen doesn’t have Trump trending upward. Stop. You’re fucking annoying.

He is

The media is desperate for a horse race so it's all "Biden isn't campaigning today? He might lose!" and "Two percent more black men will vote for Trump this year than in 2016? Biden might lose!" but you have to take a lot of that with a grain of salt.

This is especially true of the whole "Biden's taking a lid" thing, which the rightwingers are obsessing over and have already invented about a dozen conspiracies about.

Rasmussen has Trump 48% Biden 47% today, when it was previously Trump 46% Biden 49%.

The margin of error is 2.5 and, as others have already said, this is Rasmussen AND it's a national poll. You're better off looking at the individual states.

Every year, it's the same cycle. Suddenly the media begins touting that it has become a neck--in-neck horserace. It's laughably predictable, and yet...so many fall for it. Consume less media, people. And that includes polling.

*sigh* neck-AND-neck

But the rising melodramatic concern trolling is a pain in my neck for sure.

Out today from the Lincoln Project.

R223, that’s fantastic.

You’re better off not looking at Rasmussen ever

The polls always narrow in the final days leading up a national presidential election. This is to be expected. As long as the lead in the "firewall" states (PA, NV, MI, WI this year) holds, and Biden stays strongly competitive in the swing states (GA, NC, IA) in play, he should be fine.

October 26, 2020 at 1:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 114 Comments

From New York Times/Siena:

TEXAS: Trump 47%, Biden 43% From RMG Research:

FLORIDA: Biden 50%, Trump 48%

Donald Trump still leads in Texas, according to the final Times/Siena poll of the state, as strength among nonwhite voters does just enough to overcome all out rebellion in the suburbs Trump 47, Biden 43

What does NYT mean by “outright rebellion among suburban voters?”

NYT claims Trump is winning Texas because Biden lags amongst Latinos

This Biden ad should especially appeal to suburban women and soccer moms.

With Weakness Among Hispanic Voters, Biden Trails in Texas

Large Democratic gains among white suburbanites suggest risks down the ballot for Republicans in congressional and state House races, our poll shows.

By Nate Cohn

Oct. 26, 2020, 1:00 p.m. ET

President Trump maintains a narrow lead in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday, as he faces a rebellion in the state’s once overwhelmingly Republican suburbs but survives with support from an unlikely ally, Hispanic voters.

Over all, Mr. Trump leads Joe Biden, 47 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. The majority of interviews were conducted before the final presidential debate on Thursday. In the Senate race, the Republican incumbent, John Cornyn, holds a larger lead, 48-38, over the Democrat, M.J. Hegar.

Even those who have long embraced the Democratic dream of a “blue Texas,” powered by mobilizing the state’s growing Latino population, probably never imagined such staggering Democratic gains in once-solidly Republican areas. Yet the poll suggests that Hispanic voters might just be the group that keeps the state red a while longer.

...

A Democratic win in Texas would be an epochal moment in American electoral politics, heralding an end to decades of Republican dominance in the nation’s second-largest state and representing a decisive repudiation of the Trump presidency. Polls have shown a competitive race in Texas all cycle, but the Biden campaign has made limited efforts to contest the state.

The Republican grip on Texas has deteriorated rapidly during the Trump era, as a Democratic breakthrough in the suburbs has endangered more than one-third of the state’s Republican congressional delegation and Republican control of the state House.

The findings suggest that Republicans face catastrophic risks down-ballot, even if Mr. Trump wins. Mr. Biden leads him by five percentage points, 48 percent to 43 percent, across the 12 predominantly suburban congressional districts that the Cook Political Report has rated as competitive. These districts voted for the president by eight points in 2016.

In these districts, Republicans face a combination of rapid demographic change and previously unthinkable Democratic gains among white college-educated voters. Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden by just two points among white college graduates in these districts, even though they say they backed Mr. Trump by 24 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Mr. Biden has a lead of only 57 percent to 34 percent among that group, somewhat beneath most estimates of Mrs. Clinton’s support among Hispanic voters four years ago. The finding broadly tracks with national surveys, which have shown Mr. Trump improving among Hispanic voters compared with his 2016 standing. Similarly, Hispanic voters in the Times/Siena poll say they backed Mrs. Clinton by a margin of 60 percent to 29 percent.

Editors’ Picks

2 Broke Artists Started a Bakery at Home. It’s a Pandemic Hit.

Keith Jarrett Confronts a Future Without the Piano

Sacha Baron Cohen Duped Them. Here’s What They Did Next. Hispanic voters are difficult to measure in any state, and Texas is no exception. In 2018, Times/Siena surveys generally underestimated turnout by Hispanics and their support for Democrats in Texas. So far this cycle, polls have varied widely on Mr. Trump’s standing among the group in Texas, with a recent Quinnipiac survey showing Mr. Biden ahead by just eight points, 51-43, while a Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler Texas survey showed him ahead by a far wider margin, 67-20.

Up to this point, the Biden campaign’s limited ad spending has been concentrated in the El Paso and San Antonio media markets, where Hispanic voters represent a particularly large share of the electorate. It may suggest that the Biden campaign sees Hispanic voters as one of its best and most cost-efficient opportunities to improve its standing in the state.

Mr. Trump also shows modest but meaningful strength among Black voters, who back Mr. Biden by a margin of 78 percent to 12 percent. Black respondents in the survey said they voted for Mrs. Clinton over Mr. Trump by a somewhat larger margin, 82-8, in 2016.

And while Mr. Biden has made significant gains among rural white voters without a college degree elsewhere in the country, the Times/Siena survey found this is not the case in Texas. Over all, white voters in rural areas back Mr. Trump, 80-15, mirroring the president’s resilience among white voters in Times/Siena polls across the Deep South, even as Mr. Biden makes significant breakthroughs among white voters across Northern battlegrounds.

As a result, Mr. Biden has not improved over Mrs. Clinton’s performance at all outside of the well-educated, competitive and fast-changing districts, according to the Times/Siena survey. Mr. Trump maintains nearly all of his strength among the Hispanic, Black and white working-class voters who prevail outside of the state’s affluent neighborhoods.

That sounds like Christina Pickles (St. Elsewhere, Friends) narrating at r223.

Texas has long been a State where Latinos keep voting Republican.

Jacquelyn The Elevator Lady Votes For The First Time!

Fucking Hispanic deplorables in TX!

The easiest way to vote has been to fill out your ballot, drop it at one of the secure ballot boxes that has heavy security, and then track your ballot to see that it was received/accounted for. Is this country wide or is this just in select states. I loved this way of doing it.

R238, select states. Not everyone has ballot tracking.

[quote] The media is desperate for a horse race so it's all "Biden isn't campaigning today? He might lose!" and "Two percent more black men will vote for Trump this year than in 2016? Biden might lose!" but you have to take a lot of that with a grain of salt.

Preferable to them trumpeting that Dump doesn't have a chance -- like they did in 2016.

David Friedman @dfried451

[quote] My wife

Texas turnout is not accurately calculated, esp the youth vote.

When people mail their vote in, there is a significant time lag between their dropping it into the mailbox and it being received, processed and "counted" as an early vote. So the early vote is actually a good deal higher than the numbers being reported. This bodes well for democrats, especially with the polls indicating that the vast majority of those voting early, especially by mail, are Democrats.

Tweet: George Conway @gtconway3d · 7h I just voted in a presidential election for the tenth time in my life. It's the first time I ever voted for the Democrat.

[quote]When people mail their vote in, there is a significant time lag between their dropping it into the mailbox and it being received, processed and "counted" as an early vote.

I delivered mine to a City Hall drop box and it took a full week to show up as received.

R245, I delivered mine to an official drop box last Tuesday, and just got the note it was delivered today.

Harry Enten:

Some polling sponsored by groups that are conservative (or are Rasmussen) have this race tightening... But I really don't see it in any other piece of data that's out there.

USA Today had a screaming headline about the race tightening. I didn’t click on it.

Harry Enten:

It really is noteworthy (I think) that Clinton's edge was collapsing at this point in 2016... There's basically no sign of that for Biden right now. His lead is holding in all the data I'm seeing.

[quote]Texas has long been a State where Latinos keep voting Republican.

The real problem in Texas is that while the majority of Latinos are Democrats, they have very low turnouts. That is despite years of outreach, voter registration drives, flat-out begging. Kamala Harris will be visiting Texas this Friday. If she swung down to the Rio Grande Valley, or if Joe Biden worked that into his schedule, I think it would have a substantial impact. I think they need to be courted by the big guns, not just the state Democratic Party.

Nate Cohn:

We don't have a lot of polling that's fully post-debate, but we do have quite a bit that's at least partly afterward and I don't really see any hint or indication of a shift.

the media is determined to have their horse race.

There are 187,946 voters in Michigan who registered to vote since the 2016 general election and have voted already in the 2020 presidential election.

Based on modeled partisanship they are 14 points more Dem than the overall early vote universe in the state.

Wow at r253

NYT: Estimated donors by ZIP code since April:

Biden: 4.9 million

Trump: 2.7 million

[quote] the media is determined to have their horse race.

They are, and it is unsurprising. They frame things in such a way as to make it seem as if things are closer than they are. For example, last Monday, in the intro to the Today Show, they mentioned tightening numbers in the latest NBC poll. When they got to the story, not so much. They do it to hype the horse race but also to avoid getting called out by Cheatolini for pushing “fake” news using biased reporting.

When people go back and review the last several months, it will be remarkable how steady the race has been. Most people don’t like tRump. And he’s going to find out exactly how much they don’t like him next week.

[quote] It really is noteworthy (I think) that Clinton's edge was collapsing at this point in 2016... There's basically no sign of that for Biden right now. His lead is holding in all the data I'm seeing.

The media has this fear of being seen as biased. Which is why the other side everything and why they promote a horserace, in addition to ratings and profit. The truth is the media does have an agenda and it is a constant struggle between the journalists and their corporate leadership. In the primaries the journalists sure didn't want Biden.

Then you have journalists like Norah O'Donnell, who are so open about their biases that you wonder how they get away with it.

I don't mind one bit if the media is pushing a false narrative that the race is closer than it is, and neither should anyone else who is for Biden. It will continue to encourage and motivate voters who may otherwise become complacent--see 2016.

Unless, R260, the reporting creates cover for the cheating that is about to hit.

That's exactly what it's doing, R161

How is Nora open about it? I’ve never paid attention to her.

It may seem in the bag, but I think we shouldnt get complacent!! I think too many of us are just not going ro vote now so we must make sure we do!!!

Is Susan Collins going down? The media are portraying her as some kind of independent maverick for voting against judge crazyeyes handmaid.

Is Susan Collins going down? The media are portraying her as some kind of independent maverick for voting against judge crazyeyes handmaid.

Too soon to call, R265/R266. Susan Collins won by a huge margin in 2014 and used to be enormously popular. So she still retains incumbency advantage as a 4-term Senator. Sara Gideon is maintaining a small lead over Collins in the polls, but it's not a big one. So the Maine race is too close to call until all the votes are in. Maine's ranked choice voting system may also give Gideon an edge, but it could be close.

New polling video from 538.

THE problem with Trump voters is their unquestioning belief in whatever he says, because HE is their "news." Not Hannity, not the National Enquirer, him. Trump.

Case in point: A 66-year-old woman whom I once taught and know is intelligent said the other day that "Sleepy Joe isn't even campaigning. He stays in his basement." Meanwhile, a quick glance at MSNBC will show Biden giving great campaign speeches, including in this woman's home state of Pennsylvania! But hey---Trump says otherwise.

Speaking of PA: Yesterday, not more than five miles from me, Trump claimed that he saved suburban women, who "love" him, "from the projects moving next door, bringing crime." A woman sitting behind Trump pulled down her mask and dramatically blew kisses at him.

Nevertheless, I'm going out onto the political limb here and predicting that, notwithstanding Pennsylvania's allowance of up to November 6 to have one's mail-in ballot received by the local Elections Office, Biden will be declared the victor ON November third.

He will crush Trump in the Popular and Electoral votes, though FOX will ballyhoo, as usual, the large swaths of big old red states with more elk than humans.

You don't get it, r264. There may be some "complacency"---heck, I'm r269!---but we Democrats WILL VOTE TO RUN UP THE SCORE ON THE BASTARDS!

We want to be able proudly to proclaim that we were part of the Blue Tsunami! To tell for years to come either: 1.) How we called our County Elections Office to request an application to mail back to receive our mail-in ballot; how we carefully paid attention to the ads about the two envelopes; how we hoped our signatures matched our registration; and how we carefully filled in the ovals for Joe Biden and the FIRST WOMAN VICE-PRESIDENT Kamala Harris! Or: 2.) How we dressed all in blue and packed our water bottles and phone to go stand in line at our polling place FOR HOWEVER LONG IT WOULD TAKE in order to VOTE DEMOCRATIC DOWN THE LINE, from President to State Rep to local dog-catcher!

We will be voting like we're invading Normandy. We'll lose some races, some states; but we will prevail, because, and this is where the simile ends and the literal takes over---Democracy once again must be saved from the forces of Fascism.

In Wisconsin decision, Supreme Court foreshadows election night cliffhanger

Just for reference EIGHTY THOUSAND ballots were counted after election day during the primaries in Wisconsin.

That could swing the election. And that was just the primaries.

It could be twice that many votes that are not counted. This is the Supreme Court. That was the final ruling.

I wouldn’t chance it getting there in time and would take it in person if possible.

So riots break out in Philly after a police shooting. Right before the election

People who are mailing their ballots now instead of voting in person are really throwing their vote away

Nevada Poll: Biden 50% (+9) Trump 41% University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School (LV, 10/16-10/23)

NEW

@Civiqs

(B/C) Pennsylvania poll October 23-26: Biden 52%/Trump 45% (+7) MOE +/- 3%

Trump has no chance in Nevada thanks to Californians moving here like me.

I mail a utility check from South Carolina to Florida 12 days ago, and it still has not been cashed. Usually, within 7 days, the money is withdrawn from my bank account.

People need to drop off their mail in ballots in person NOW.

We need to pack the courts the second Joe Biden is sworn in.

President (National) Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 46% 10/22-10/26 by IBD/TIPP (A/B) 970 LV

From Civiqs:

GEORGIA: Biden 51%, Trump 46% From Florida Atlantic University:

FLORIDA: Biden 50%, Trump 48% From University of Nevada:

NEVADA: Biden 50%, Trump 41%

From Civiqs:

GEORGIA: Biden 51%, Trump 46% From Florida Atlantic University:

FLORIDA: Biden 50%, Trump 48% From University of Nevada:

NEVADA: Biden 50%, Trump 41%

NEW Arizona moves from ‘lean D’ to ‘toss up’ in @NBCNews presidential battleground map. #BattlegroundAZ #12News

Trump Is going to three states today

If the Supreme Court steals the election for their death-cult god, we're going to tear it down.

Arizona is indeed damn close.

[quote] It may seem in the bag, but I think we shouldnt get complacent!! I think too many of us are just not going ro vote now so we must make sure we do!!!

Oh, enough of this shit, you hysterical ninny. No one here is not going to vote because Biden is up in the polls. It’s just not going to happen.

Biden is headed to Georgia today.

Florida on Thursday.

Iowa and Wisconsin on Friday.

Michigan on Saturday.

(MSNBC during Hallie's show, still on right now.)

Yep. Democrats need to get their voters to turn out. We are still lagging in FL,NC, MI, TX regarding benchmarks for early voting to counterbalance the lopsided Trump voters on November 3. Why does it take so much to get Democrats to vote?

Biden needs to do at least two events per day, probably three. You only have seven days left. Why the light schedule?

Glad to see Biden is going to Iowa. He needs to go to NC too

Obama is in Orlando today.

Please, Michelle, visit PA, NC, AZ, and TX!

[QUOTE] Biden needs to do at least two events per day, probably three. You only have seven days left. Why the light schedule?

Joe Biden is 78 years old. The more the man is out there exposing himself to the Coronavirus, the greater the chance he’ll get infected. He shouldn’t even be leaving his home at all.

AZ is still a deep red state. So anyone expecting it magically being a run away win for Biden are delusional. It was always going to be very close.

Now if NV was as close as AZ, there would a cause concern. I am also disappointed in PA, but that state has been shifting red for a while now.

AZ is changing, R294, I think, along the lines that NV changed. It doesn't have a GOP trifecta anymore.

Yeah but we need higher Democratic turnout

I'm extremely pissed off about the Supreme Court. It needs radical change. A term limit, or rotation out of the circuit courts. Or packing.

We need new states as well. More senators.

No offense, but Democrats should have been pissed off about the courts decades ago. Too late to suddenly be upset now

R298, who said my being extremely pissed off was anything new?

R296, where are you getting this about Dem turnout being low this election?

It’s not low relative to previous years; in fact, it’s historic for early voting. But in FL, NC it’s not where we need Democrats to be in blue areas to offset the expected lopsided Republican vote on Tuesday.

Nevada and Arizona are trending more Blue because of Californians moving there but want a similar CA lifestyle.

See the NC voting is underway thread for early voting stats

Are you pissed about SCOTUS? Wish Biden, Jill, PBO, Michelle, Kamala, or Pete would come to your state or a particular state? Are you angry that the media seems to have forgotten about the hundreds of billions that Trump owes to unnamed people/countries/companies? At loose ends because you've already voted and feel powerless?

VOLUNTEER WITH THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN. DONATE TO THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN THROUGH ACT BLUE. DO BOTH. You are Americans, damnit. Get off of your asses, stop sniveling and work with the people trying to save the country! Do it today. Do it NOW!

Something interesting to note:

A pundit I follow just had a tweet removed.

The tweet basically said that it's too late to mail a ballot as of today so drop it off or vote in person.

That's because the post office says if you mail your ballot today it will still arrive in time, R305.

[quote]who said my being extremely pissed off was anything new

I always assume any Dataloungers being extremely pissed off has been their default emotion for decades.

Biden ahead big in a new A-rated national poll.

CNBC/Hart: Biden +11

Pack the Courts

By Larry Kramer

Mr. Kramer is a former dean of Stanford Law School.

Democracy depends on norms as well as law, and respecting established norms is essential in a diverse society. The norms that get layered on top of laws are what enable groups with fundamentally different ideas and objectives to live and work together. And if the past decade has taught us anything, it is that a politics of abandoning norms to win today’s battle is mutilating our democracy.

So, yes, Republicans had the legal power to refuse a hearing to Judge Merrick Garland even though he was nominated nearly eight months before the 2016 election, just as they had the legal power to ram Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination through the Senate Judiciary Committee two weeks before the Nov. 3 election.

And yes, they had the legal power to do so even while offering disgracefully hypocritical justifications: denying Judge Garland a hearing because, they said, legitimacy required waiting for an election that was close in time, while rushing through a last-minute appointment for Judge Barrett lest they lose an election that’s much, much closer. But both acts betrayed a ruthless willingness to politicize judicial selection in extreme ways that upended long-established norms.

Liberals say that if Joe Biden wins the election, Democrats should answer by adding justices to the Supreme Court. Republicans respond with faux outrage that this would politicize the judiciary. But they have already politicized the judiciary. The question is whether only one side should play that game. Besides, not only is enlarging the Supreme Court legal, its size has changed seven times over its history.

Adding judges would be a political response to a political act. But the extremes to which Republicans have been willing to go leave the Democrats no other choice. Not for revenge or because turnabout is fair play, but as the only way back to a less politicized process.

This is a lesson we learned decades ago from economists and game theorists: Once cooperation breaks down, the only play to restore it is tit-for-tat. It’s the only way both sides can learn that neither side wins unless they cooperate.

President Trump and the Republicans are unapologetic about discarding longstanding cooperative rules for making judicial appointments. Should they lose the election after succeeding in putting Judge Barrett on the court, it becomes incumbent upon Democrats to respond in kind. Paradoxical as it sounds, tit-for-tat, hard ball for hard ball, would set the stage for, for constructing a judiciary we can once again respect.

Adding two to four new justices is one way to do this, but there are others that are less disruptive and just as effective. Democrats could also create a fair process that regularizes Supreme Court appointments in a way that removes the incentives to play these games.

In 2005, the law professors Roger Cramton of Cornell and Paul Carrington of Duke proposed adding a new justice each Congress, with the nine most recent appointees deciding cases on the court’s regular docket. The others would remain on the bench, with their full salaries and tenure, and perform all the other duties of Article III judges: filling in when one of the nine is recused or unavailable, deciding cases in the district or circuit courts, helping administer the judicial branch, and possibly participating in the process of selecting cases for the Supreme Court to decide.

It’s an easy fix that creates de facto term limits without running afoul of the Constitution, reduces the stakes for any single appointment, and assures that cases are not being decided by judges who are well past their useful shelf life. It protects judicial independence and is fair to all sides, while reducing the likelihood of a court that is ideologically extreme or out of sync with the rest of society.

Pennsylvania Post-Debate Poll: Trump 48% Biden 48% Jorgensen 2%

@trafalgar_group

Trafalgar is a rightwing pollster who makes Rasmussen look impartial

R311 LOL

I was polled yesterday.

I was poled yesterday.

Texas is getting bluish

New: Bloomberg funding a last-minute TV blitz in TEXAS & OHIO to boost Biden in the biggest red states.

~$15 million in a week. Main theme is Trump’s covid failure. Big Spanish-language component in TX.

His polling found Trump w/tiny leads in both states

Total Voted by Party Registration

Reporting states with party registration data: CA, CO, CT, FL, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, PA, SD

Party

Count

Percent

Democrats

15,202,552

48.6

Republicans

8,974,045

28.7

Minor

194,811

0.6

No Party Affiliation

6,937,545

22.2

TOTAL

31,308,953

100.0

R311, the way you should read Trafalgar Poll is whatever they put on the day + 6-8 points for Biden = the actual poll result.

The Dems are working hard in Wisconsin to get every outstanding mail-in ballot delivered by the voters to the clerks' offices directly, since no ballot received after election day will be counted (thanks to yesterday's Supreme Court ruling).

Looking for clarity on the race? Watch where Trump and Biden travel.

Welcome to the watch-what-they-do finale of the presidential campaign. Don’t pay attention to what the candidates and their aides are saying about their closing strategies. The best way to tell which states President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. think are in play is to track their campaign travel.

Trips are being announced just a few days in advance, and the operative word is tentative. Candidates will make last-minute adjustments to their schedules based on the latest information from overnight polls (or prodding from worried supporters).

Case in point: Mr. Biden paid a quick trip to Pennsylvania on Monday. This is one of the most contested states on the map, which the president narrowly won last time and where polls now show Mr. Biden ahead. Mr. Trump has traveled so often to the state in recent days that it seems only a matter of time until Pennsylvania starts hitting him up for its resident income tax.

Mr. Biden heads to Georgia on Tuesday and to Iowa later in the week, two states Mr. Trump won in 2016 that are on the edge of the Democrats-have-a-chance map. It’s an aggressive move. Should Mr. Biden lose next Tuesday, expect the second-guessing brigade to inspect his decision to play offense when perhaps the game called for defense, and to invoke the trip Hillary Clinton made to Arizona at the end of the 2016 campaign.

But he is also going to Tampa, signaling how important Florida is, and how Democrats have put the president on the defensive in a state that he needs to win. (If early returns show Mr. Biden winning Florida next week, watch Democrats begin to pop the champagne.) And he is also heading to Wisconsin, as he tries to nail down the three Rust Belt states — the other two are Pennsylvania and Michigan — that lifted Mr. Trump over the 270 electoral vote hurdle four years ago.

Mr. Trump is spending a lot of time on defense this week, heading to states that he won in 2016 and where he is struggling today: Arizona and, of course, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Assuming Mr. Trump can hold on to the rest of his 2016 map (and that may be a big assumption), he needs to hold just one of the three key Midwestern states to win re-election.

Interestingly, Mr. Trump is also going to Nevada, a state that Mrs. Clinton won in 2016. Nevada has not been extensively polled, and the surveys that have been done show a tight race there. Some clarity about the state of play in Nevada could come later Tuesday with the latest New York Times/Siena College Poll, which we expect to release around 1 p.m. Eastern.

Trump asking Biden early voters to go back & change their votes to him shows he’s panicking as he goes down. He’s delusional & relying on magical thinking to save himself. It’s a message to anyone considering him that he has lost & they should vote for Biden to unify the country.

Is there any state that actually allows voters to change their votes?

I thought it means he thinks he’s already lost, R321. But Trump thought that in 2016 and he was wrong then.

I’m not sure he can’t flip a few states. It looks like he’s got Florida. It looks like he’s got a good chance for North Carolina. Arizona is tightening up. The electoral college really favors him. You don’t have to get that many actual votes as long as you can get electoral votes. This whole system is awful.

When I think of the U.S. becoming a permanent fascist dictatorship, run by an idiot who probably has dementia and who lurches from one ruthless dictator to the next, and whose loans all have to be paid in a couple of years, I feel like screaming. What’s wrong with people?

You’re right

In order for Democrats to win, they have to have maximum turnout, keep their feet on the gas until the very last minute. They can’t have parts of their constituency lagging in voter turn out, and they need events to go their way throughout the voting.

[quote]Is there any state that actually allows voters to change their votes?

Yes. Connecticut, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all allow voters to change their absentee vote after they have cast a ballot.

Biden can also hold 2-3 rallies a day in the last week of the campaign. His trips observe the health guidelines so there's not that much of a risk.

Cheeto is maniacally criss-crossing the states in play. If he can do it, Biden can too and he should.

Got my early vote in today. Straight dem ticket.

Also meant to add that in my heavy gop area lots of black people at the polling location.

[QUOTE] Cheeto is maniacally criss-crossing the states in play. If he can do it, Biden can too and he should.

He’s only doing it because his campaign is broke and Biden is killing him on the airwaves. He figures this will help make up for the fact that he can’t afford the campaign ads he needs.

Biden speaking live in GA.

I get why he chose Warm Spring, but he should be in ATL to ignite black and youth vote

Doesn't matter R330.

This isn't the time to hold back. Leave no stone unturned.

Pennsylvania Post-Debate Poll: Trump 48% Biden 48% Jorgensen 2%

@trafalgar_group

Florida Post-Debate Poll: Trump 49% (+5) Biden 44% Jorgensen 2%

@SusquehannaPR

/

@theamgreatness

(R) LV, 10/23-25

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. just dropped a +5 Trump for Florida and 538 dutifully aggregated it. Wikipedia describes them this way "The firm specializes in polling services for Republican candidates." Uh huh.

BREAKING: New OHPI poll of Arizona President Biden 49% (+3) Trump 46% Senate Kelly 50% (+5) McSally 45%

New Gravis post debate poll of Minnesota Biden +14

the noon update from @GaSecofState shows we've officially crossed 3 million votes. Ballots Cast as of Noon on October 27, 2020: 3,063,716 the SOS predicts we could have more just early & absentee votes than the entire 4.1 million Georgians who voted total in 2016.

Biden headed for historic margin in California, poll shows

[quote] I get why he chose Warm Spring, but he should be in ATL to ignite black and youth vote

There is literally nothing Biden could do that would satisfy people like you.

BREAKING: Trump Pulls Florida Ads as Cash-Poor Campaign Enters Final Week @MarioDParker via @bpolitics

Why would R305 post something vague like that, as if it were gossip?

Just fucking tell us who had their tweet removed and why. Link to something.

The Hill

Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

BY JONATHAN JAKUBOWSKI AND CHRISTOS A. MAKRIDIS, OPINION CONTRIBUTORS — 10/27/20 01:30 PM EDT

We predict that President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election — and win big.

While the majority of the polls suggest that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading, or at best that it’s close, they suffer from at least three problems.

First, the tone of the questions. There is significant evidence from behavioral psychology that suggests that the way a question is framed predetermines the range of potential answers. In fact, Gallup has found that respondents can answer very differently to questions with the same topic even in the same survey based on the language that’s asked. And the use of metaphors can even dwarf the importance of pre-existing differences between Republicans and Democrats.

One of the reasons respondents do that is because of a tendency to give socially desirable answers, which was the case especially during the 2016 election. Most people don’t like confrontation, so the easiest, albeit not necessarily the best, solution is to avoid it. Right now, saying that you’re voting for Trump/Pence is often not the socially desirable answer. In fact, a recent poll by the Cato Institute suggests that nearly two-thirds of Americans say that the political climate is sufficiently harsh that they don’t want to give their genuine opinion about politics.

Second, the sample of respondents. Who responds depends on many factors, including the medium (e.g., landline versus cellphone), the location, the sample size and demographic factors. Moreover, the pool of respondents is not necessarily the same as the pool of likely voters. Even though election polls all contain a margin of error, that margin of error is unreliable if the underlying sample does not reflect the population. Researchers have also identified self-screening as the major contributing factor to the polling failures during the 2016 election cycle.

For example, distrust of pollsters also leads to lower response rates for Trump supporters. Rasmussen finds that 17 percent of likely U.S. voters who “strongly approve” of the job President Trump is doing say they are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election. By comparison, only 8 percent of those who “strongly disapprove” of the president’s performance say the same.

...

While proper sampling methodology matters more than the size, having a representative sample with enough people still helps considerably. Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group notes how their work to create minimum samples sizes of 1,000 voters, added to their work to doggedly pursue the “quiet Trump voter,” led to Trafalgar being one of the most successful battleground polling firms in the country in 2016. Cahaly explains that “we don’t do a state with less than a thousand. You see these polls, 400, 500, 600 people for a state. I don’t buy that. Your margin of error is far too high.”

Third, the content of the current news cycle. What’s going on in a particular moment in time can influence voter attitudes, particularly in swing states. For example, the recent revelation of Hunter Biden’s hidden emails on his laptop, coupled with the link to his father in a potential corruption scheme, has come at an opportune time for the president. Moreover, if the economic recovery continues, the good news may continue putting wind in Trump’s sails.

Admittedly, no poll is perfect. That’s why RealClearPolitics takes a step forward by “averaging out” these errors across polls. But “averaging out” only works when errors are made in both directions. Here, many polls make errors primarily in one direction, so the average will still reflect some of the biases that exist.

Gallup conducted a recent survey finding that 56 percent of respondents report that they are better off than they were four years ago, which is striking given that we are in the midst of a pandemic with a recovering labor market and deepening political polarization.

We delved a little deeper into the data from Gallup, coupled with voter registration data, for eight swing states. We find that states with a higher proportion of people who report that they are thriving have a lower polling average for Biden and a higher one for Trump. What’s even more telling is that there’s a big gap between the percentage of people who say they’re thriving and the percentage who say they’re voting for Biden. For example, that gap is 5.3 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

Moreover, if we look at voter registration in Pennsylvania, we see a similar pattern. There were 803,427 more registered Democrats than Republicans as of May, but that gap has narrowed to 700,853 as of October. In fact, Republicans have netted seven times as many registered Republican voters than Democrats since 2016. Similar trends are taking place in North Carolina and Florida.

We don’t pretend to have all the answers, but we do have some of the right questions. How are people actually feeling? Surveys are great when respondents know what they’re answering and when the sample is representative, but surveys can be misleading otherwise.

Jonathan Jakubowski is author of the newly-released book, “Bellwether Blues, A Conservative Awakening of the Millennial Soul.” He is also director of an award-winning startup business focused on sustainable packaging and is the executive chairman of the Wood County Republican Party. Follow him on Twitter at @jonjakubowski. Christos A. Makridis is a research professor with Arizona State University’s W. P. Carey School of Business, a senior adviser at Gallup and a non-resident fellow at Baylor University. Follow him at @camakridis.

Can someone please tweet the Hill article to Harry Enten and 538? I just want to get their take.

For all this defending of Trafalgar and Rasmussen is getting the 2016 election right, they don't mention how wrong they got the 2018 midterms.

Very wrong.

I guess R305 is referring to Eric Holder's tweet, but Holder isn't really a pundit, and Twitter reinstated the tweet soon after.

Looking at the comments on Twitter it appears rightwingers flooded Twitter with complaints about the tweet and that's probably what caused the temporary moderation of it. Still not sure why r305 didn't just say what was going on -- I've seen several people suggest it's too late now to mail in a ballot and be sure it gets to the polls in time, so Holder's tweet getting temporarily deleted is sketchy.

Jesus Christ, Eric Holder is right! If that goddamn Supreme Court ruling becomes the “law of the land” then ballots have to be received before Election Day. It just fucking hit me. Who knows how long that takes? Even if your ballot is postmarked October 30th and it doesn’t get there on time, they’re going to throw it in the trash. Man, that’s fucked up.

What the fuck kind of bullshit is this? That’s like saying your taxes have to be received by the IRS on April 15th when in fact it just has to be postmarked in the mail by then. And we all know Trump and Louis DeJoy have been working to slow down the mail across the country. We might be fucked!

JURISPRUDENCE

The Supreme Court Wants to Determine Who Votes and Who Wins

As Amy Coney Barrett was sworn in, the other justices made their intentions clear.

By DAHLIA LITHWICK and MARK JOSEPH STERN

OCT 27, 20203:06 PM

Judge Amy Coney Barrett, now Justice Amy Coney Barrett, wants you to know that she is very independent. She is so independent that she referenced the word three separate times in her speech following her swearing-in ceremony. The event, which was essentially emceed by President Donald Trump, was staged at the White House Monday evening, shortly after the Senate voted on her. In real time, the ceremony looked slapdash; confused staffers scuttled back and forth in the shadows behind Trump, and microphones barely picked up the audio at points. It was only afterward that it became clear what the purpose of the event was: It seems to have been primarily designed to provide footage for a campaign ad featuring Barrett and Trump. After promising her independence, America’s new Supreme Court justice let herself star in a commercial for the president just eight days out from the Nov. 3 election.

There was so much that was grotesque and even ghoulish about the process of confirming Trump’s nominee—hand-picked, as the president crowed—to tilt the election in his favor. For weeks we have observed and remarked on the horror of the dead hand of a dying Republican Party forcing through a nominee to entrench its fading power even as the party struggles in the polls. The confirmation celebration put that same desperation on full display. There was the insistence on a White House ceremony, in the dark of night, that was attended only by Republican Party operatives. There were no other Supreme Court justices in attendance, with the exception of Justice Clarence Thomas, who performed the ceremony, the equivalent of a shotgun wedding. Republican senators sat in the spaced-out chairs on the lawn receiving congratulations for their accomplishment of elevating Barrett, finally wearing masks in a performative display of safety as they prepared to adjourn without passing needed legislation addressing an illness that has ruined the lives and livelihoods of millions of Americans. All of this ended with the president leading Justice Barrett up the steps to the White House, where he stood woodenly smiling with her for the photo-op on the balcony that would be speedily rendered into the triumphal finale of the taxpayer-funded campaign commercial. If this was a performance of judicial independence, one would worry about what beholden looks like.

...

[quote] Joe Biden leads in Nevada, according to the final Times/Siena survey of the state. Biden 49, Trump 43

Just to follow up on the NYT article posted upthread, which promised new NV polling today.

And as a counterpoint to that stupid editorial from The Hill, here’s a different, brand new article from our boy Wasserman—

R349, but that’s not the law. Many states permit mail-in votes to be counted as long as the are postmarked on or before Election Day. The Supreme Court case people are talking about concerned Wisconsin law.

Thanks, R353. I posted the Hill piece because I'm anxious. Wasserman is very reassuring.

R355, I remember 2012 and I was like you. DL had me believing that Romney was going to win in a landslide. I know you're anxious, but hang in there.

[quote] For all this defending of Trafalgar and Rasmussen is getting the 2016 election right, they don't mention how wrong they got the 2018 midterms.

Midterms aren’t comparable to election years.

Trump hates Biden's stretch-run strategy. Biden loves Trump's.

Analysis: Republicans seem more eager than Democrats to get Joe Biden out on the trail — an indication that his four-corners strategy is perceived by both parties as a smart tack.

Oct. 26, 2020, 12:23 PM PDT

By Jonathan Allen

WASHINGTON — Democrats have a counterintuitive plan for the final week of the presidential campaign: more Donald Trump, less Joe Biden.

As the president ramps up his barnstorming tour between now and next Tuesday's election, Biden's markedly lighter schedule looks like that of an incumbent congressman who has no opponent. The Democratic nominee took Monday off entirely, while Trump held rallies across Pennsylvania — in Allentown, Lancaster and Martinsburg.

If Trump wins, Biden will surely face recriminations from within his party for sitting on a lead. But Republicans seem more eager than Democrats to get Biden out on the trail, an indication that his four-corners strategy is perceived by both parties as a smart tack.

...

[quote] Midterms aren’t comparable to election years.

So then what was there excuse for getting the midterm so wrong?

*their excuse

There are only six campaigning days left. 136 hours

[quote] So then what was there excuse for getting the midterm so wrong?

You’re correct about Rasmussen but not Trafalgar. Trafalgar was correct in their 2018 midterms predictions.

Bucks...Did you see the NYTimes today?

Chairman of the Democratic Party of Milwaukee County, gay, from today.

Ballroom family member. From today.

The thing that's compelling about Trafalgar is their methodology. They use interactive voice recording so there's no human involved. So if there is such a thing a a shy Trump voter then this is the methodology that's likely to capture them.

I've noticed that the IVR/Online and even mixed methodology tend to show a tighter race.

The thought of a Trump voter afraid to tell some anonymous person on the phone that they support him might turn out to be the most laughable element of this election.

The rally going bubbas don't care. It's your "respectable" neighbors that would.

[quote]The thing that's compelling about Trafalgar is their methodology. They use interactive voice recording so there's no human involved.

I have a tendency to hang up on these type of calls unless I'm forced to go through the menu because I have a billing problem with a company.

Biden in Georgia

RCP moved FL in Trump's column

NEW North Carolina Post Debate Poll:

Biden 48% Trump 48%

@surveyusa, LV, 10/23-26

[QUOTE] RCP moved FL in Trump's column

Thanks, rednecks and Cubans.

RABA for @WHO13news has Biden +4 in Iowa.

Puerto Ricans around Orlando aren’t voting, I guess.

There’s just not enough of them, R375.

1.12 million in Florida, vs. 1.3 million Cubans in Florida.

I wonder about the voter participation rates.

Yes, Puerto Ricans and Dominicans aren’t voting in the numbers we need them to, while Cubans Are also hyperenergized. Also, the Governor of PR has endorsed Trump.

A lot of Dominicans and Ricans are evangelicals, and many of their men idolize Trump as an Alpha male strongmen who torments uppity women and effeminate men.

Michigan judge OKs open carry at polling places on election day

Meanwhile, LADIES, we have a new toss up state......MONTANA

OCT 26-27, 2020

Public Policy Polling*

Biden 47%

Trump 49%

Biden doing a 3 day tour of TX.

I was listening to Rush Limbaugh last week and he said the president of the Trafalgar group said Biden would only win Pennsylvania with massive voter fraud. Maybe they got some of the states right in 2016, but they are a total right-wing outfit.

I wouldn’t give a shit even if the Democrats did commit massive voter fraud to win Pennsylvania. It’s about damn time we started playing dirty!

R382, I was expecting this.

538 moved Iowa to the toss-up column today for the first time this cycle,

The Selzer poll of the state should come out this weekend. IN 2016, when it showed Hillary behind by 7, it foretold imminent doom for her campaign.

Yeah Hillary’s campaign started coming apart at the seams this time last year but we covered our eyes and hoped the duct tape would hold.

Anyone know what the betting markets show for the election outcome? (I'll have to research myself, of course, but I'm going to be busy at work the next few days and won't have time). The super wealthy richie-riches tend to habitually gamble and not just play stock markets. They have money to burn and they do it, so if they're betting on a Biden win (with good odds), there's definitely a disturbance occurring across the land to the detriment of the GOP.

There will be an avalanche of polls Thursday through Sunday, and then very few Monday

[quote]Michigan judge OKs open carry at polling places on election day

Idiotic.

R387 definitely.

Wasserman retweeted something from 2016 the other day showing Hillary trailing by 14 points in a district in upstate New York that Obama tied Romney in 2012. Everybody at the time just ignored it. But it was an ominous sign. This year Biden and Trump are tied in that district.

I can’t believe anyone takes Trafalgar seriously. “Compelling”, LOL.

They’re a laughing stock.

They were right in 2016 and 2018 🤷🏻‍♂️

But what about other districts r391? Isn’t there always going to be a trend in some district that people can point to in retrospect? Not necessarily ones that Hillary was behind in last time but new ones that Biden is trailing, that pundits will look back and go “well there WERE signs...”

I mean I fucking hope not but I wanna be prepared, mentally.

R394, well, if we have to be super pessimistic, I would say Nevada could look stronger at this point (it concerns some) and we already covered PA (thats would be a nail biter till the very end).

Yeah Trafalgar also says 40 something percent of blacks approve of Trump's performance. Total joke. That ridiculous article also cites Hunter's laptop as one of it's main points, revealing their desperation. Another main point is that a small but significant portion of people surveyed claim that they wouldn't want to admit to people that they are voting for Trump. While that is probably true, the question posed was not whether or not they would admit it to an anonymous phone pollster that they don't know at all, a completely different hypothetical.

Meanwhile 538 now has Biden 88-12, the highest it's been.

Betting market PredictIt.

Biden $0.62

Trump $0.42

It’s been pretty steady.

Democrats now saying it’s too late to mail ballots. This could be a nightmare.

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The story in TX is pretty consistent: Trump has plummeted since '16 in white-collar suburbs, w/ potentially catastrophic implications for GOP control of congressional seats & the state house. But Trump's modest gains w/ low-income Hispanics (RGV, etc.) may save him statewide.

The irony is that Trump may absolutely wreck down-ballot Rs in purple major metro suburbs (DFW, Houston, San Antonio, Austin), while there are virtually no competitive down-ballot races in the heavily Dem/Hispanic areas where Trump has made *gains* since '16.

The only questions I want to know is, what is Biden's internal polling showing about the following states:

Texas, PA, FL, and GA.

I’m skeptical of gains with low income Hispanics. I think they are this year’s “silent t**** supporters.”

From FCI in Everday Treasoning Part 40

"Hey!

FL is FL. Internals are good. Seriously.

PA by 8+

TX- real wildcard. Internals show Biden +4. At least. Some TX House districts are seeing +30 point swings.

AZ- solid. +9.

It’s not close. Biden can win some surprising states like MT, KS or even AK.

Voters get jittery this close to an election. They esp get nervous to vote out an incumbent. Some polls may show tightening but when asked, voters are saying they’d break hard for Biden."

R402 Meaning they’re saying it out of fear but voting Biden.

Yeah, I'm not gonna hold my breath for these numbers, R403.

Thanks r403 what is FCI though?

Democrats should have told all their voters to send mail ballots back by mid last week. After the postal service antics, they should have said only vote early inperson.

Former Congressional Intern

R401, my guess his polling shows it's close in all. He wouldn't be going to TX, GA, and FL if it wasn't close and he wouldn't be making suprise visits to Pennsylvania after practically being there every day if it wasn't within Trump's reach.

Scroll up to 287

[quote]You’re correct about Rasmussen but not Trafalgar. Trafalgar was correct in their 2018 midterms predictions.

No. It's more than just getting who won correct; it's also about getting the numbers right. Trafalgar routinely does not get the numbers right in their polling attempts. They routinely give Republican-favoring polling results, results that measured against the A-level pollsters simply do not add up.

The sole advantage that Trafalgar had in 2016 was that they were mostly the last pollster in the field, which is why they captured the late break toward Trump that other pollsters who ended their polls earlier missed.

There is a reason that Trafalgar is a C- pollster and it's not because they are accurate.

One week to go! I am feeling very positive about Biden and I am feeling quietly hopeful about the future.

The numbers of registered voters for this election and the numbers of people who have already voted is incredible!

Vote! Vote! Vote!

Nate Silver: A lot of Trump's hope stems from this.

Biden's lead isn't *quite* comfortable enough in PA.

And although he has some *good* backup plans if he loses PA... namely AZ/FL/NC/GA...he doesn't have a *great* one being ahead only 1-3 points in those states.

Biden should have at least two events per day every day in PA

@NateSilver538 Disheartening that there’s still a chance, honestly.

I know that’s not a poll centric take, but the fact that Trump can lie his ass off and stoke hatred constantly without significant repercussions in the polls while maintaining a shot to win is just demoralizing.

America is better than this.

R404, hopefully the poll is wrong. But here are some relevant comments from Wasserman's thread on TX:

"As a Hispanic, I can tell you I have several conservative family members who love his BS machismo shtick because our culture digs the alpha male personality."

"Another reason Beto and Castro have every reason to be pissed at Biden. He could have gone to the Valley to campaign on admitting mistakes with Obama’s immigration policies while also giving assurance to return separated families."

"I live in Texas around all these types of Latino voters. I think its a combo of years of trying to fit in with white people, who are a dominant force in rural areas and smaller cities. They arent immune to Fox News talking points, may have internalized a lot of it. I just work with a lot of these folks, am related to some of them, they sit there and spout the same Fox News stuff white ppl do. I see it all in the FB comments of our local newspaper."

"If I had to take a guess I would argue that a lot of them are afraid of losing their incomes if there is some kind of national lockdown, something that democrats seem more inclined to do."

"Besides the social conservatism, a lot of Latinos felt deeply betrayed and/or ignored by the Obama administration. So it's not like there's this deep well of goodwill that Biden is drawing on to retain Latino votes by default."

"The vast majority of Texas Latinos vote blue, but I'm not going to act surprised that at least some folks will look at the parties and come to the conclusion that their outcomes are basically the same for some of their communities and just vote based on social issues"

"It’s weird! My parents are living w me and I never really watch Spanish but now that they are here I indulge. The trump commercial has music and its catchy the Biden one is not very exiting. Granted that’s no measurement. Just a comment on my end" (This is about the ads on Univision)

R403 is giving this thread false hope.

[quote]538 moved Iowa to the toss-up column today for the first time this cycle,

[quote]The Selzer poll of the state should come out this weekend. IN 2016, when it showed Hillary behind by 7, it foretold imminent doom for her campaign.

R386 makes a good point. Hillary's campaign made the mistake of writing off Iowa & Ohio, and it had repercussions in Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. Hillary not only lost IA & OH, but she lost them by the biggest margin of any Democrat since Dukakis in 1988.

As Ron Brownstein wrote recently, the fact that Biden is keeping IA & OH competitive bodes well for him in MI, WI & PA. Biden may not win IA & OH, but if he can keep them close he probably has a better chance of winning MI, WI & PA.

NYT: GOP internals show Small Biden lead in Georgia

[quote] They esp get nervous to vote out an incumbent.

Huh. I guess it never occurred to me before that maybe Joe benefits from the fact that he's kind of an incumbent in a looser definition. The unwillingness to break (presumably) is a fear they will not know what to do. But Joe (unlike, Pete or Amy or even Hillary to an extent...sorta) was the last person in the room enough to have knowledge of the total inner workings

Nate Cohn:

We haven't had a ton of post-debate polling, but I think we've seen enough to say that the debate didn't really change anything. We'd see signs of it by now if it did, and there's nothing really

If that's right, then Trump is in a really tough spot. He's basically out of time. I won't rule out that the polls could tighten naturally a bit before the election, but I'd be surprised by big movement. And if not, then he'll need a much larger polling error than '16

R418 PollTroll, do internal party polls have a better sample or how are they different from the public polls?

Surely Biden will close things out in PA. I hope he doesn’t neglect MI, MN, PA, and WI. Keep it up with the ads, too.

R322, Moron.

R424, you’re the moron.

Cunt.

Opinion

Can We Trust Pennsylvania’s Polls?

They show Joe Biden clinching crucial counties. So why does it feel so different on the ground here?

By Shawn McCreesh

Mr. McCreesh is an editorial assistant for the Opinion section. Oct. 27, 2020

R425, You cannot change a vote. Trump is demented.

[quote]You cannot change a vote. Trump is demented.

1. Trump is stupid.

2. Trump's fans are stupid.

3. Trump voters are stupid.

[quote]Most states do not allow voters to make changes to a ballot after it has been submitted, but some states do allow voters to vote in person after getting an absentee ballot.

Rachel was great tonight. Very touching opening segment about voting rights.

Actually, Rachel’s opening was more chilling. The mail issue. Mostly Dems requested mail-in ballots. Will they bring them to the clerk’s office moving forward? Can’t mail them now. There’s no more time. USPS is talking too long to deliver.

r382, he better stay out of Dallas.

r393, they are very right wing.

Rasmussen and Trafalgar? Come on people, we can do better than this.

I just find it interesting that some would focus on 2 polls with known biases and ignore all of the A rated polls. I, too, think that PA will be a nail biter, but it's based on seeing how much they are desperate to become Alabama and not on two questionable polls.

Michigan congresswoman Debbie Dingell on Lawrence tonight. She doesn’t believe the polls but thinks Biden is doing well in Michigan but it’s competitive.

James Carville on Brian Williams tonight. Says Georgia looks good but Miami Dade is concerning because turnout is weak.

I think the Democrats got their own set of talking points for the talk shows and they include saying that things are closer than the polls say in order to make sure everyone stays motivated.

Trump held a rally Omaha tonight, campaigning for the NE-2's single electoral vote. It turned into a clusterfuck when they didn't have a way to transport the people they bussed in back to their cars. So, below zero, at least 9 people got taken to the ER for hypothermia. Trump literally threw the FyreFest.

Here's the punchline: He's probably not even going to win that district.

[post redacted because linking to dailymail.co.uk clearly indicates that the poster is either a troll or an idiot (probably both, honestly.) Our advice is that you just ignore this poster but whatever you do, don't click on any link to this putrid rag.]

[quote] Democrats should have told all their voters to send mail ballots back by mid last week. After the postal service antics, they should have said only vote early inperson.

Most GOTV phone/text banking operations have in fact been encouraging voters to vote early or drop off their absentee ballots in person rather than voting by mail. This is not some new idea that Dems previously overlooked. Also, the SCOTUS ruling applies to WI only. If your state allows x number of days after E Day for a properly postmarked ballot to arrive and your state government isn’t trying to change that, you’re good (though in person is still wiser).

Lord help me I’m going to have a heart attack. If not, I’ll at least need new carpet from pacing back and forth.

This is such a nightmare. If Plump wins again, do these people not have any idea of what he is going to do? The republicans are capable of anything. If they cheat their way to victory it will be devastating. This place will turn into Nazi germany overnight. Do you know how empowered all the racists will be?

Yes, pretty much.

R438 ugh they can’t fucking wait until November 4th? Dumbasses all of them .

From ABC News-Washington Post:

MICHIGAN: Biden 51%, Trump 44% WISCONSIN: Biden 57%, Trump 40%

WOW at that Wisconsin number!

Nevada: Jon Ralston

@RalstonReports

·

6h

Last blog post of the night: Pending mail count, Dems lost ground in Washoe and Clark again, are not on track to have the kind of lead they did in 2016 going into Election Day. But three days left and mail until Tuesday. More tomorrow...

[quote]Jesus Christ, Eric Holder is right!

Of course he's right, R349, that's why the Trumpsters and trolls flagged his tweet, they don't want people to know that they should take their ballots in because it's too late to guarantee that they'll get there in time via mail.

The problem is that Twitter tries to moderate automatically and it means their system can be gamed, which is probably why Holder's tweet was missing for a while.

We need help in Nevada! Republicans have outregistered Democrats with new voters this year, and it’s paying off for them. All hands on deck in NV!!!

Democrats need to step on the gas in Florida and Nevada. Get your people to vote now!

And NC too

I live in Nevada. Trump has no chance here because of all the Californians moving to Nevada. Over 100,000 in the last year and a half. It’s getting bluer and Bluer. It was blue for Hillary it’ll be blue for Biden. The Democrats here have taken more advantage of mail in ballots like I did.

NC total accepted absentee ballots (mail & in-person), thru 10-27, by voter regions:

29% Urban Central City Voters 27% Urban Suburb Voters 25% Surrounding Suburban County Voters 19% Rural County Voters

by Regions & Party Registrations within each

#ncpol #ncvotes

As of 10-27, of NC's 7.3M+ registered voters

3.6M+ early votes = 50% of NC's total registered voters having already "banked a ballot" for Nov. 3

Within voter race-ethnicity:

52% of White & 48% of Black voters have voted

33% of Hispanic/Latino have voted

#ncpol #ncvotes

Trump's rallies aren't doing him any favors -- so keep 'em up, Donald!

NC total accepted absentee ballots (both mail & in-person), thru 10-27, by generation cohorts & daily % change:

39% Boomers (-1) 25% Gen X 18% Millennials 11% Greatest/Silent 6% Gen Z

Gen Z + Millennials + Gen X = 50%

by Generations & Party Reg within cohorts

#ncpol #ncvotes

Rallies are even less popular with the "persuadables."

NC total accepted absentee (both mail & in-person) ballots, thru 10-27:

66% from White Non-Hispanic 20% from Black Non-Hispanic 2% from Hispanic/Latino 4% from all other races Non-Hispanic

by Voter Race-Ethnicity and Party Registration within

#ncpol #ncvotes

Tweeting...at 4:30am

NC currently has 7.3M+ registered voters

Half--50%--of NC's total registered voters having already "banked their ballot" for Nov. 3

Within party registrations:

Reg Democrats: 55% have voted Republicans: 51% Unaffiliated: 44%

#ncpol #ncvotes

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota are done! Dems need one big push in Nevada.

And need to flip ono big state (AZ, NC, FL, or GA) to replace the possible loss in PA.

When I moved to Nevada a 6 years ago we had a Republican governor and one of the senators was Republican. Now we have a Democratic governor and two female Democratic senators. Bluer and bluer.

Democrats in Nevada need to step up turnout

“If it turns out to be really close and it comes down to Pennsylvania, God help the United States of America,” @rickhasen told @edsall

Black turnout is lagging in NC. Black turnout rate needs to exceed white turnout rate to win the state, and its currently lagging

R458 Reg Democrats: 55% have voted Republicans: 51% Unaffiliated: 44%

Those numbers dont really add up.

Jon Ralston in NEVADA:

Updated, 10 PM, 10/27/20

Remember I told you the pattern has been that the GOP does best on the 10th and 11th day of early in-person voting?

The Tuesday numbers look very much like the Monday numbers -- gain of about 5K combined in Washoe and Clark.

Let's see what the mailbag brings overnight and tomorrow.

Clark firewall could be as low as 67K and statewide lead could be down below 50K. Dems lead in Washoe still a robust 5K, but dropping.

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

[quote]Democrats should have told all their voters to send mail ballots back by mid last week.

People on social media during the USPS crisis and ever since were saying repeatedly that you need to mail your ballots in early. The regular media reported on it as well, and lots of local news outlets are keeping people up to date on where drop-off boxes are.

If people didn't know they needed to mail those ballots early, it's not the fault of the Democrats.

He got the good Vegas coke, R457.

A lot of people are voting early in person because they don’t trust the USPS

On 270 to Win, if you add up the electoral votes for Trump in all the red columns, including the light "leans red" states, PLUS the neutral states, he still doesn't get to 270. Trump would have to win all the red states, all the neutral toss-up states, PLUS some blue state to win.

On Frontloading HQ, their similar map shows Trump would have to win all the states polling red, all of the states polling "leans blue" PLUS one or two "likely blue" states to win.

R462...I do think PA GOP is being groomed to take the election for Trump, if it comes down to that. We have a Dem admin and AG, but a POS GOP who leads the Senate. I don’t trust his fat ass as far as I can throw him.

VOTE.

The USPS and SCOTUS have just guaranteed that millions of Democratic votes will be destroyed and not counted.

I feel like if Trump becomes the dictator he plans to become and every single media outlet becomes his propaganda outlet, the public will still believe all polls that are put out by the media. 97 percent of Americans would die for President Trump or Ivanka? It’s true because the polls say it is!

The USPS and SCOTUS have just guaranteed that millions of Democratic votes will be destroyed and not counted.

I feel like if Trump becomes the dictator he plans to become and every single media outlet becomes his propaganda outlet, the public will still believe all polls that are put out by the media. 97 percent of Americans would die for President Trump or Ivanka? It’s true because the polls say it is!

Scary times

Democrats are too docile and lethargic

We definitely need to increase black turnout in NC; Democratic turnout in FL and NV. However, one thing that is apparently different this year is that more white and suburban voters support Democrats than in 2016. Also, there is a large independent vote that polls indicate tilts Democratic.

Also, we have a lot of first time and infrequent voters voting this time.

Predictions are difficult with so many unaffiliated or independent voters

Miami-Dade early ballots are disappointing for Democrats.

[quote]Miami-Dade early ballots are disappointing for Democrats.

But there is still time.

What does it take? Early voting is about to end

From Colby College:

MAINE: Biden 51%, Trump 38% MAINE 2: Biden 48%, Trump 42%

Re70, I’m not too worried about the PA State Senate—although yes, it’s run by an absolute asshole. The Governor and Attorney General are Dems, and are basically in charge of administering the election.

R482...I don’t disagree. AG Shapiro has been a pit bull against the Trump campaign and administration, and our Secretary of State is as much a model of anti-suppression as the GOP legislature allows her to be. That said, if it’s close (I’m not convinced it will be) I expect brazen attempts at gaming from Corman.

Get the Philly vote out! What does it take?????

[quote] In September 2020, Corman suggested that the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania State Legislature would ignore the state's popular vote if Biden won, and send Trump electors instead.

Holy shit! How does he even begin to justify doing this?

Corman is a giant asshole—one reason why local elections matter.

R485, can’t that be challenged in court? I know I read Trump was trying to talk Republican officials in several states into doing that about a month ago.

But I guess the Republican Supreme Court would agree with it.

Every Pennsylvanian on DL needs to contact Corman and tell him the electors must represent the popular vote. I’ve done so, but got no response. He’s the only GOP politician (I’ve contacted many about various concerns over the years), who has not responded to me.

And PA has. US senate vacancy coming up in 2020. Connect the dots.

So please people, VOTE.

Sry that should be vacancy in 22.

Pssst. Independents are trending towards Biden 2 to 1.

Vote and encourage others to vote. Ignore the trolls trying to make you feel hopeless, people.

[quote]Miami-Dade early ballots are disappointing for Democrats.

Where are you getting this? In-person early voting has Republicans ahead of Democrats, 56% to 50% in terms of turnout. Of ballots counted in Miami-Dade, however, Dems lead by 61,000 votes with 255,000 mailed ballots pending return or processing. This is this morning's latest update from Miami-Dade,

R491, historically Democrats count on a hundreds of thousands advantage to counterbalance the huge advantage Republicans have in the North and nonurban areas. Democrats need more votes in Miami.

Stock market's dumping today, given that the COVID curve has reached new highs.

Impossible R493! The Dump Administration just announced one of their first term accomplishments was beating the Coronavirus! FAKE NEWS! Those patients and health care workers and Wall Street people are lying because they are fans of Sleeping in the Basement Joe! Laptop! Emails! Depends!

R481, James Carville said that last night on the 11th Hour with Brian Williams.

Unrelated to Miami-Dade, but related to a post above, here's the Rep. Debbie Dingell segment from Lawrence last night.

Militias at polling places and demonstrations LOL. Silly.

At polling places, I want everyone to have earbuds in, and completely ignoring them.

And just wait until they commit a "Boston Massacre"-style incident, minus the initial provocations.

Contrary to conventional thought, Republican are turning out big for early voting:

In Sumter Co., FL, as of this morning 72,695 out of 105,612 registered voters (69%) have already voted - which I believe is the highest turnout rate outside of auto-VBM states.

Georgia counties with the highest early voting turnout so far: Forsyth County GA is already at 106.8% of 2016 total turnout Liberty County 104.2% Dawson County 104.1% Greene County 104.0% Bryan County 104.0% Butts County 99.2% Rabun County 99.1%

R497, correct. They’re absolutely turning out in huge numbers.

President (North Carolina) Biden (D) 47% Trump (R) 46% Jorgensen (L) 1% 10/22-10/25 by Harper Polling (B/C) 504 LV

Other stats on Pennsylvania: Democrats have returned 70% of requested ballots, and have 609,994 outstanding. Republicans have returned 54%, and have 359,777 outstanding. Trump is going to need a HUGE in person turnout on Nov 3. Early in person voting is over.

Cunningham and Cooper continue to outperform Biden in North Carolina.

Arizona: Maricopa, Navajo, and the Y Counties reported this morning. ~130k ballots total. Dem party advantage had another drop today.

Total Ballots: 1.9M Turnout: 45% Party Adv: +76k Dem

Details: h

Some good news for dems right now. But the trend is breaking towards GOP ballots now. Similar trends are happening in other states.

Democrats should have never unilaterally stopped registering voters and having rallies. Yesterday’s drive-in rally in GA should have been the Democratic standard from the start

Oh God, here we go with the second guessing and the bullshit. Did some of you really think that republicans weren't going to vote early if they could? Some of you really need to just turn off the news and stay out of election threads because you're not gonna make it to Tuesday at this rate. Calm the fuck down. Biden is run basically a flawless campaign in a goddamned pandemic. He's trying to model appropriate behavior.

ABC News/Washington Post poll, Wednesday 10/28: WI - Biden 57, Trump 40 (Biden +17%) ; MI - Biden 51, Trump 44 (Biden +7%)

But Trump has a good chance to get Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Biden is going to Georgia for a reason.

R506, that was posted five hours ago at r443

According to various polls on demographics that I've seen on various TV stations, Biden is getting MOST of the votes from: the city suburbs, women, Blacks, youth, the elderly, Hispanics (except Cubans in Florida), moderate Republicans and Independent voters. So basically, he's expanding his base. There is also record early vote turnout by either returned ballots or in person.

Yes, Republicans will vote in person on election day but how did Trump expand his base? Am I missing something?

Exactly R509. He did not expand his base. In fact, he lost a lot of the people who voted for him because they couldn't vote for Hillary or because they wanted to give a "businessman" a try. There are no new Trump voters. I understand nerves. But don't let nerves remove your critical thinking skills.

Don't forget the youth vote they're apparently very motivated...I know..I know...but the stats don't lie

Very apropos. Like a preview of November 4 onwards.

2016 is very different from 2020.

With the pandemic, racial unrest, a bad economy and Trump's pathological lying and unfitness for the office, if Americans don't vote at this time of chaos and distress, there really is no hope for the country. If the majority of the people cannot see that democracy itself is at stake if Trump wins another term, they have had their eyes and ears closed for the last four years.

A Wisconsin +17 for Biden is just WTF. Even Obama didn’t have numbers like that in 2008 or 2012. The pollsters and media are being irresponsible with this shit driving up false hopes to suppress Dem turnout.

Meanwhile in Georgia....here is a preview of the election day and beyond.

Just ran across this on Twitter. "Secret Biden Voters". Let's hope!

Texas has so many early votes that it has the equivalent to 90.8% of all votes cast in 2016 in already. It's very possible that Texas actually has more early votes in before election day than they had in all of 2016 which is just bonkers

I’ve been freaking out about early voting states, but I ask myself how do you know how these Republican seniors are voting? Current polls show that twice as many Republicans are voting for Biden as Democrats for Trump, and that senior are supporting Biden

how do we know how these registered Republicans (and Democrats) are voting? Moreover, how do we know how the huge percentage of unaffiliated voters are voting? Current polls show that twice as many Republicans are voting for Biden as Democrats for Trump, and that seniors are supporting Biden.

R519, only through "exit polls". Look for LV sign, that's an equivalent to exit poll as LV means someone who already voted in this election. Also, some other signs would be to look for other soft data within the polls.

It’s the Independents we don’t know about.

Who are they? Libertarians, disgruntled Bernie Bros who will vote for Trump just to punish the Democratic Party for not nominating Bernie? Never Trumpers? Disgruntled Republicans who might fall back to Trump at the last minute? Nobody knows who the hell they are, they could be anything.

For the TRAFALGAR fans among us (you know who you are) —

[quote]To me, the fact that Trafalgar is publishing ridiculous ~60-person *crosstabs* of PA's 18 districts is the biggest tell they don't really know what they're doing.

R521, are you talking about independent voters in a particular state? Because nationally they favor Biden over Trump 2:1.

There’s a Monmouth poll of Georgia coming out today that is said to be a real eye-opener, in favor of Biden and Ossoff.

In general r523. Everyone freaks out over Repub versus Democratic early turnout, but very few focus on the size able chunk that are neither

BREAKING: New Monmouth poll of Georgia Biden 50% (+4) Trump 46% Ossoff 49% (+2) Perdue 47%

[quote] A Wisconsin +17 for Biden is just WTF. Even Obama didn’t have numbers like that in 2008 or 2012. The pollsters and media are being irresponsible with this shit driving up false hopes to suppress Dem turnout.

Do you think they should not have published it at all? Simmer down.

GEORGIA VOTER POLL: President -

@JoeBiden

overtakes

@realDonaldTrump

Registered voters: 45% Trump (47% in Sept.) 50% Biden (46%) Likely voters, high turnout: 46% Trump (48%) 50% Biden (46%) Likely voters, low turnout: 48% Trump (50%) 50% Biden (45%)

GEORGIA VOTER POLL: President -

@JoeBiden

overtakes

@realDonaldTrump

Registered voters: 45% Trump (47% in Sept.) 50% Biden (46%) Likely voters, high turnout: 46% Trump (48%) 50% Biden (46%) Likely voters, low turnout: 48% Trump (50%) 50% Biden (45%)

[quote]For the TRAFALGAR fans among us (you know who you are) —

They aren't even a strictly polling firm. They brag about the extra shit they do to tweak their polling numbers based on proprietary algorithms and some sort of social nonsense.

Every firm tweaks responses for things like "likely voter" as compared to "registered voter" but they go well beyond that. Their accuracy is well below the A-rated pollsters. A decent polling firm should be able to get to about 90% accuracy. Trafalgar is at 75%.

From their own site:

[quote]The firm has also pioneered methods to deal with what they describe as “Social Desirability Bias” in order to get at what a poll participant’s true feelings are in situations where they believe some individuals in a poll are not likely to reveal their actual preferences. In their view, this included the 2016 Presidential election and the 2018 Florida gubernatorial election.

Everything coming out of Georgia is terrible news for GOP and Trump.

YET

Trump barely visiting the state, unlike PA? I mean is 1 EV in Nebraska is more important than GA's 16 EVs?

Something isnt right.

President (Pennsylvania)

Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 45%

10/17-10/25 by Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 723 RV

Arf! Have a nice day!

Poll #135277 #ElectionTwitter

[quote]Do you think they should not have published it at all? Simmer down.

Yeah, it's easy enough to screen out and ignore major outliers like this. Occasionally, it's real and other pollsters start showing the same results. More often, it's an anomaly because their random household selection picked a group of non-representative individuals.

President (Texas)

Trump (R) 49% Biden (D) 46%

10/17-10/25 by Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 758 RV

Woof woof! Can I have a treat?

Poll #135276 #ElectionTwitter

President (Florida)

Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 46%

10/17-10/25 by Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 743 RV

Arf! Did I do a good job?

Poll #135275 #ElectionTwitter

President (Arizona)

Biden (D) 50% Trump (R) 45%

10/17-10/25 by Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 725 RV

Woof! Did I do a good job?

Poll #135274 #ElectionTwitter

President (Arkansas)

Trump (R) 65% Biden (D) 32%

10/9-10/21 by University of Arkansas (B/C) 591 LV

Woof! Did I do a good job?

Poll #135272 #ElectionTwitter

So is Univision poll only polls Latinos?

We will soon need a sequel thread to take us to the final hours

BREAKING: Joe Biden and Barack Obama will be campaigning together in Michigan on Saturday.

#earlyvote midday update 10/28

At least 74 million people have voted in early voting

90 million will have voted early this year

[quote]Woof! Did I do a good job?

What is this?

Jeff Flake for Joe Biden

Jeff Flake for Joe Biden

see offsite link on twitter.com —I'm inclined to believe this might be a really good thing

Are we sure he's not going to come back & say he endorses Dump after all, I mean this is the aptly named Flake we're talking about...

New Monmouth poll of Georgia:

Biden 50%

Trump 45%

I think Joe could well lose PA and still get above 300 in the EC.

[quote] this is the aptly named Flake we're talking about...

Touche´

But if it is sincere, Joe has Jeff, Cindy McCain and Cher all on the ground on his behalf. That's a lot of support

Of course Flake isn’t going to rescind his support in the next 6 days.

Jeff Flake has been criticizing Trump ever since he got out of office. Another Republican who didn’t tell the truth until he got out of office.

But it’s good in his home state. Some people who voted for him may listen.

[quote]A Wisconsin +17 for Biden is just WTF. Even Obama didn’t have numbers like that in 2008 or 2012. The pollsters and media are being irresponsible with this shit driving up false hopes to suppress Dem turnout.

Please read 538's take on this. ABC/Washington Post is rated A+.

If Biden takes GA and loses PA, everyone in PA should hang their heads in shame.

President (North Carolina) Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 46% 10/26-10/27 by Gravis Marketing (C) 614 LV

Gravis is Breitbart pollster

TRUMP APPROVAL RATING IN TEXAS ACCORDING TO LATEST

@UnivisionNews

poll. Approve- 35% Disapprove- 65%

Feel like a broken record on this but stop looking at the margin between Trump and Biden and focus instead on Trump vote share. In both WI and PA he has been stuck at 44-45% for MONTHS. That’s the issue.

I think Joe will have enough electoral votes by Midnight on Tuesday, maybe even 11:00 PM.

NEW @UnivisionNews poll of Latino voters:

NATIONAL: Biden 67% Trump 26% TEXAS: Biden 66% Trump 28% FLORIDA: Biden 57% Trump 37% ARIZONA: Biden 66% Trump 26% PENNSYLVANIA Biden 67% Trump 25%

Graphic below is new state poll in each state:

[quote]President (North Carolina) Biden (D) 49% Trump (R) 46% 10/26-10/27 by Gravis Marketing (C) 614 LV

North Carolina counts votes quickly. If it gets called for Biden, we'll know what the rest of the night will be like.

Gravis is very Republican

@PollsAndVotes says the most striking thing about polls this year is how little things have changed. Biden lead around 5 points, for ex., has been stable. Much different than polling variation in 2016. #mulawpoll

Keep Voting Early!

The Economist

Latino men are a bright spot in Donald Trump’s faltering campaign

If he does hold on in Texas, he may have them to thank

“Latino” = Cubans and Mexicans

President (Arizona) Biden (D) 48% Trump (R) 44% 10/26-10/28 by Gravis Marketing (C) 704 LV

Those huge Georgia numbers are thanks to Stacy Abrams and her GOTV and registration drives. Her organization is still on the ground there and she's been doing a lot of work since 2017/18 registering people and getting a ground game up.

Same with Texas and Beto. It was his GOTV and registration drives that got people motivated.

Both Stacy AND Beto have laid the foundations to turn Georgia and Texas blue. They also inspired people and showed them what was possible if everyone voted. People are motivated to show up.

Part of me (a big part) is laughing at the media and all of their handwringing after 2016. They were saying shit like "Democrats are doomed for a generation!" "Democrats have nobody left in the pipeline". "Dems lost in the wilderness!" "Dems have no new blood!"

Then what happened? What happened in 2018? We fucking exploded, that's what happened. So many young, vibrant people - women, POC, LGBTQ, recent immigrants - realized that if this stupid orange twat could get elected, then so could they.

Get elected they did! In droves at all levels. We have a deeper bench than the Steelers in the 70's. We have ground games in states we NEVER would have considered flipping before thanks to the efforts of these new Dems.

These new young people will be around for a while and they are inspiring other young people from every background to get involved.

What do the rethugs have? Lies. Old white men hiding in the closet. Cheating and stealing. Guns, babies, jeebus!

They are withering away. They have nothing. It's a "good old boys club" of fossils and has beens desperately trying to cling to power. I don't expect the media to run with headlines "repugs buried for a generation" although they should.

The GOP thinks they can hold power through the courts but those judges will be ignored or removed. The GOP is crumbling. The fossils are afraid of the young so they drive them to march in lock step with the rest of the party. They are yesterday's news.

There’s plenty of young assholes out there ready to fill the ranks of the GOP because they think it’s patriotic and cool. And then there’s many who will get older, get careers, look at their paychecks more closely and decide they don’t want to pay taxes anymore. What will they do? Start voting Republican. Don’t think for a second that the GOP is going anywhere.

"Trump hopes states taking time toe count votes after November 3 "wont be allowed" by courts." - MSNBC this hour on Ayman's show.

So counting all ballots, even those received, should just stop at midnight, November 3?

I'd love it if, at midnight, Biden is way ahead, and Trump et al suddenly reverse course and say "we need to count every ballot even if it takes weeks!!!!" And even then they lose. How great would that be.

[QUOTE] So counting all ballots, even those received, should just stop at midnight, November 3?

Well that’s what the Supreme Court just ruled.

R567, that is not what they ruled. That ruling was an interpretation of Wisconsin state law. It does not apply to the whole country.

Hillary is serving as one of New York's delegates to the Electoral College.

Article is on CNN.

Supreme Court not hearing Pennsylvania case. 5-3. Amy did not vote. This is good news. Penn now gets 3 days more to count.

Maybe they’re reading the room.

Link for Pennsylvania case:

She didn't recuse exactly. She just hadn't enough time to read all the briefs. So - it's not that much of a sign what she will do with other election cases.

Even if she did vote, it would still be 5-4.

Temporary reprieve

Here’s the next thread: