**OFFICIAL** 2018 Midterms Elections Thread Part 10! THE HANGOVER CONTINUES!

Trump calling for a new election in Arizona.

I'll give credit to McSally for refusing the go there..

Volunteer to help with recount in Florida

I had a nightmare last night Paul Ryan was the majority leader again.

[quote]I had a nightmare last night Paul Ryan was the majority leader again.

Thankfully, that's not coming true.

Will we get any calls today, or will they not release updated counts because of the holiday.

FL will not be decided until Nov 18-20 when recounts are done.

I'm more thinking about the outstanding House races.

Didn't KAnsas go Blue too?

In some respects, but it was also in part because the GOP gubernatorial candidate was so repulsive.

[quote] In some respects, but it was also in part because the GOP gubernatorial candidate was so repulsive.

More repulsive than that GOP turd who won in FL?

On TPM there was a article that the McSally is not making more of a stink about this is because she will get McCains senate seat. Kyl hasn’t said whether he will serve beyond the current session and probably would prefer not to . If he resigned the gov would appoint her. So she still has a good shot of ending up in the senate.

Democrats can only win elections through corruption.

Sinema leads now by 32000 votes, almost difficult for McSaddly to make up.

I ❤️ Andrew Gillum

[quote]I had a nightmare last night Paul Ryan was the majority leader again.

Paul Ryan has never been the Majority Leader in the House.

Republican nightmare...Speaker Pelosi...AGAIN!!!

She is the Republican Michael Myers.

R15 fuck off, it was my dream.

Try to be more factually accurate in your future dreams.

R18 what for? Ryan’s a loser.

Question for Floridian DL’ers - what’s the deal with this Dr Brenda Snipes, the Elections Commissioner for the county where all the fcuk ups seem to centred.

On the political shows, the reporters and pundits have consistently made asides about this not being her first controversy, wondered how she stays in office, that she’s the one person that has consistently united Dems and Repubs (against her), things like this.

Any truth or is this exaggerated?

TIA

The problem in Florida is that all public officials - Judges, Sheriffs, Property Appraisers, Clerks of the Court as well Supervisors of Election - are elected. Therefore, they tend to be better at being elected or re-elected than doing their jobs. In the case of Dr. Brenda Snipes, it helps that her name appears in anything that has to do with elections in Broward County.

Assuming today's vote dump doesn't show a huge uptick in votes for McSally, I think they might call it today.

Bow down bitches, your Queen has returned

let's hope the Bern victims don't turn into the freedumb carcass of the left.

I would hope Bern victims would come to their senses and realize that to move their agenda they need old style powerhouses.

Broward judge denies Scott's request to have voting machines impounded.

Retire Nancy.

Wasn't it again the case that Bern candidates lost?

I wish this nasty old fart would just go away! Mark my word he will run again in 2020. He's a Putin stooge.

Please help change Georgia.

Is Brenda Snipes 2018's answer to Katherine Harris?

A victory for Republican Brian Kemp over former legislator Stacey Abrams would seem to prove, once again, that the New South is the Old South. Dig deeper into the results, though, and it’s clear that something has changed.

LA Times article on the GOP erosion in Orange County, once the bedrock of conservatism:

Next time you meet a veteran or a Military family who supports Trump, ask them about this..... feel free to re post or tweet.

But Republicans upped their turnout, too, by about 600,000 voters -- not as much as Democrats but enough to “offset her gains,” Bullock said.

He said the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court, not Abrams’ race, is one likely reason. “She may have been done in by Chuck Schumer and Cory Booker and Kamala Harris,” he said

Sounds like bullshit, R34.

Exactly, R35. People are saying all kinds of wild shit. The fact is Brian Kemp has been controversial for years. He regularly gets sued about voting "irregularities" and he regularly loses. He's probably either the most incompetent Secretary of State Georgia ever elected, or he is the most dishonest and racist. Take your pick. Maybe all of the above.

One thing a lot of local pundits are complaining about, and if you go online to WABE Atlanta's public radio station, or the other public radio station in GA, and listen to today's broadcast of "Political Rewind" there is a lot of anger out here about the fact Kemp is getting very ugly and very mean, ridiculing and calling out Abrams AND HER SUPPORTERS, which represents more than 49% of the voters in Georgia.

This is a badly divided state. Just like America. And there is no way Kemp has shown anything resembling leadership to try to bring people together and try to unite the state. Quite the opposite. Trump "embraced Kemp" and it shows. He is very Trumpian.

The Kavanaugh hearing hurt the red state Democrats. I hope Democrats get smarter in the future about which battles to fight.

Nonsense, R37. The Kavanaugh fight was a righteous fight. He is bad news. The Democrats had no problem voting for Gorsuch, which IMO that pissed me off too. But there is no way the allegations could be ignored. The Kavanaugh hearings didn't hurt the red state Democrats. The migrant caravan was a much more potent argument than Kavanaugh. And more college educated women voted against Trump and the Republicans this time so I don't think it was as big a factor as most of the insider politicians want to make it.

Sounds like bullshit, R37.

Sen-elect Kyrsten Sinema is now up 1.64 points and increases her raw vote margin by the highest yet over loser McSally - 35,814 votes.

In the important statewide Secretary of State race, Democrat Katie Hobbs has once again overtaken GOP nominee Steve Gaynor. Hobbs is now leading by two tenths of a percentage. She's up by 3,645 votes.

Maricopa county will be reporting in an hour. McSally's uphill climb just got harder.

I am very pleased by these midterm elections.

Considering the rest of the state-wide results, why did Arizona vote the Repug in for governor? Is he that popular?

[quote]Considering the rest of the state-wide results, why did Arizona vote the Repug in for governor?

Garcia wasn't a very good candidate and ran far to the left of Sinema, so much so that neither refused to endorse each other. It looks like it was the right call based on the numbers we're seeing.

[quote]Retire Nancy.

And put a newbie with training wheels in charge at this critical time? Only idiots who don't understand how things work want that.

Pelosi until 2020 and then a well-trained person she's spent two years mentoring takes over. Pretty sure that's the plan as of now since even Pelosi herself is saying it's for the short-term. Maybe it will even be one of the shiny new ones!

R44 there’s plenty of qualified candidates for Speaker of the House with longtime experience.

[quote]In the important statewide Secretary of State race, Democrat Katie Hobbs has once again overtaken GOP nominee Steve Gaynor. Hobbs is now leading by two tenths of a percentage. She's up by 3,645 votes.

Yes, the secretary of state race isn't getting the same level of attention but can't believe the Dems might pull out the surprise win there.

Are the wins that Dems had this year 2020 proof? There were a few fluke wins this year as you would expect in a wave midterm election but will most of the candidates be re-elected this year?

This year = 2020.

Some of them seem sure to get reelected r48, especially those representing districts that voted for Romney but voted for Clinton because of the Trump effect.

But some districts that Trump won are going to be tough if the GOP can field a strong candidate.

It also depends on what type of year 2020 will be. Is it going to be a good year for the GOP, or a good year from the Dems. These things usually come in correlations.

The House will come up again in 202. It is critically important that Democrats make significant gains in the state legislatures. Governors and legislatures will matter. After the 2020 election and the 2020 census, legislative redistricting happens. We have to undo the gerrymandering and pass tougher voting laws that prevent suppression and make it easier to vote. In Florida, 1.5 million ex felons who have paid their debt to society can now vote. We need referendums like that on every state ballot. As for Congress, we have to keep the House , regain the Senate and build on the gains we've made. 2020 is important and how the Democrats treat the people in their districts and manage good publicity and a good public image will determine their effectiveness at getting re-elected. Be assured the Republicans are planning to do whatever they can to wrest the House away from us. These new members of Congress are going to need a lot of help and support. They need good staff. Especially at home in their district offices.

Barbara Lee for next House Speaker

Well, with any luck this means Marshall Law is out of the question.

[quote]Barbara Lee for next House Speaker

She announced her intentions to seek the position of Caucus Chair. She's almost certain to get that.

I will try to be sensitive and delicate while saying this: those of you who are asking questions about Dr. Snipes of Broward County, and one poster even suggested she may be another Kathrine Harris, you do realize that she is a dyed in the wool hard core Democrat don't you?

The only manner in which she might compare to Harris is that if she had held Harris's job in 2000, I guarantee that Gore would have won.

Broward and Miami-Dade have a long history of Chicago type politics, and IF I we a Republican I imagine she would flood my mind with nightmares every time I went to sleep.

Today Auntie Andrea Mitchell said Snipes is a Republican. Also heard: he was appointed by Jeb Bush, and she's an elected official.

Now I'm totally confused. Is she elected or appointed? If R55 knows for a fact, I'll take your word.

I think Pelosi is the best choice for speaker at this time.

Deflect, deflect.....

ARIZONA UPDATE

Sinema expands lead to 36,193

**

Sinema (DEM) 1,087,226 (49.65%)

McSally (REP) 1,051,033 (47.99%)

They can do whatever they want to Pelosi and if she retires, she’s a lame duck and they can’t touch her. That’s probably why she wants the job.

Others would have to run for re-election after being the anti-Trump. That would probably end them. The Republicans are going to claim Pelosi is the anti-Christ. Better her than somebody who wants to run for President in 2020.

[quote]Sinema expands lead to 36,193

Is that with or without Maricopa's results today?

Senators Booker and Schatz ask the DOJ to investigate to determine if Georgia’s election laws and policies violate the Voting Rights Act.

I thought the Voting Rights Act was made toothless by the Repugs a couple of years ago. That's when the Repugs really upped their cheating.

R61, another batch of votes were just added from Maricopa County.

Sinema now ahead by 38,197.

Latest Maricopa County votes increases Sinema's lead to nearly 2 points:

Sinema (DEM) 1,097,321 (49.68%)

McSally (REP) 1,059,124 (47.96%)

Why don't they call it?

Given the latest update I think some more organizations will call it.

Yes, the news organizations will probably call the Arizona race at some point over the next day.

They are being cautious because it's been 25 years since a Democrat has won a Senate seat in Arizona.

[quote]They are being cautious because it's been 25 years since a Democrat has won a Senate seat in Arizona.

They've gone 106 years without a woman winning a Senate seat in Arizona. I get the caution, but after McSally's purported firewall has refused to emerge after three days, I think we all see where this is going.

Actually, from Jake Tapper's Twitter, CNN may be about to call it.

Katie Hobbs (D) leads Gaynor (R) for Arizona Secretary of State by 5,667 votes.

WashPo just called it for Sinema

THE WASHINGTON POST CALLED IT!!!!!!!

And McSally conceded.

Arizona, welcome to the good guy club.

Nice.

We are pleased Arizona.

Barbara Lee won't vote for Barbara Lee to be Speaker. She's in Oakland and she and every other SF Bay area Democrat will vote for Pelosi.

Gawd, some of these petitions are stupid. Or troll-led since Trump and the GOP would love it if Barbara Lee were Speaker.

Meanwhile, Yay Sinema!

McSally is definitely going to replace Kyl. She was far too gracious with her concession for it to be otherwise.

Fact-checking Trump's false claims about Arizona and Florida elections

McSally wants some cross party support when she has to defend McCain’s seat in 2020, that’s why the fake graciousness

Was McSally the crazy one crowing on McCain to resign after his diagnosis so she could replace him?

She better plan on voting with the Democrats on key issues and judicial appointments then R81. Otherwise she can take her graciousness and stuff it.

Trump calling for new elections in states the GOP has lost -- he says so much random bullshit, no one's going to take that seriously.

So the top for House Democratic leaders will all be 70+ years of age (Pelosi, Hoyer, Clyburn, Lee)?

Ok just a reminder: mike espy is running for senator in Mississippi. He could use donations, texts, postcards urging people to vote. Yes, I know he's a long shot. Yes, I am helping anyway.

Stuff moves slowly. Give Pelosi a minute. She's going to give the gavel to Schiff, I bet sometime in the first half of 2019.

I have been on it, r86, since Nov 6.

Every seat, every election. We fight

Maybe she’s going to give the gavel to Hillary. Then the Republicans could blame her all they wanted but she would be retired and they couldn’t do anything.

There’s two things I noticed when I saw Pelosi being interviewed by Colbert before the election: She was absolutely sure she would be Speaker again, even though Colbert pointed out others wanted the job. It seemed like there was already a back room deal and no matter what, she was going to get it.

Second, she was way too happy. She was very smug and amused as if she knew something we didn’t.

This was a few days before the election.

They need to fix the voting system in FL.

Sinema's streaming her victory speech on Facebook. She's killing it.

I know a lot of us would knock her as not being progressive enough, but this is exactly the speech she needs to give in Arizona.

Scary new video opinion piece at the Times about Russian disinformation through the years.

R89 I hope it’s about a rain of indictments coming down.

It's official!

Freepers are whining:

R56 Dr. Snipes was in fact appointed by Jeb Bush, but she is a registered Democrat. Her office has been the center of controversy here during the last 2 elections. The biggest scandal was the disappearance of 16K ballots in '16.

I admit that it seems odd that Bush appointed her, but seeing as Broward is overwhelmingly Democratic, perhaps Bush was making some sort of across the aisle gesture at that time? I honestly don't know.

Just reading the unhinged comments on R95, it's like reading the Datalounge of the far right!

[quote]Was McSally the crazy one crowing on McCain to resign after his diagnosis so she could replace him?

I think that was Kelli Ward.

It looks like the Democrat is about to pull into the lead in CA-45.

Nate Cohn:

[quote]Meanwhile, another day cuts Mimi Walters' lead in CA-45 in half again, now down to just .4 pts with a lot of vote left. Very hard to imagine a Walters victory.

Nice, R99!

CA 10 and CA 39 (both still undecided) still show the Republicans in the lead; what are the chances these go the other way?

Sorry -- erred. Only CA 39 shows the R in the lead. The other is undecided, but shows the D in the lead.

The scuttlebutt on Pelosi is that she is handing off the gavel to Barbara Lee in 2020. Wise move, Barbara Lee is excellent and it will be a time for a black woman in charge. Schiff is nice, but it's not the right time for an old white man to lead

Jeff Flake gave Sinema a nice congratulatory tweet as well.

Pelosi will be Speaker until 2020. She will be Trump's target for the next two years and will give it all back without regard to re-election because she'll be moving out of leadership if not out of the House entirely by retiring. She will then hand the Speaker's gavel off to the next generation of leadership. Even she said she's transitional. The worst thing we could do right now is have an intra-party fight. It would kill us.

We need experience right now and she's got it. Do some of you understand what she has accomplished as Speaker over the years? And, Trump fucking hates her. That alone should be enough to make her chief thorn in his side. She'll drive him nuts and play him at the same time. I've also noticed that people who complain about her and how someone else should be Speaker never actually name anyone who 1) is qualified, 2) is popular, and 3) wants it.

Close...

We got us another Dem Senator, from Arizona. YAY!!! How many more would it take for us to have only one less than the GOP. I don't think we can squeeze out enough take over the Senate but to be just one short of those evil bastards would still make a difference, I think.

Pelosi gets her last two years as Speaker. Gets to give it to Trump. Goes out on top.

R97 My god. It is the photographic negative of Data Lounge!

"Des know hw to fight dirty and win!! When will Republicans figure out their game and fight back??"

"They steal , they lie, they are pure evil!!"It just goes to show you that everyone is somewhat crazy. I am sure they believe their shit just as everyone here believes our shit.

R109, we have proof, including indictments, convictions, and guilty pleas, to back up our assertions. They are just insane.

Andrew Gillum Talks Florida Recount…in 2002

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Democrats win two California state Senate seats, gain veto-proof supermajorities in Legislature.

Mississippi — does Espy have any chance of winning the runoff election?

Contribute

R113– it will be a hard since there was two republicans in the general who total accounted for two-thirds the votes cast

But, R115, was there a lot of bad blood between the voting blocs for those two? Maybe they'll pout and the Democrat can sneak in.

Hope African-Americans mobilize the vote. 37% of the population.

Sorry about the Confederate flag.

[quote]Schiff is nice, but it's not the right time for an old white man to lead

He's 58. That's not old.

R116–history show us that Republicans vote for their candidates even if they personally abhore them

Still no reason for us to GOTV

I meant not GOTV

[quote]SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Democrats win two California state Senate seats, gain veto-proof supermajorities in Legislature.

Didn't they already have that? And I doubt that Gavin would veto much that came out of the legislature anyway.

Is there any chance that California could go too liberal? I'm thinking of the 'get arrested for using the wrong pronouns' type stuff.

r123 No, that is a stereotype of liberal. Don't be silly. Liberalism has nothing to do with that.

[quote]Well, with any luck this means Marshall Law is out of the question.

Oh Dear! I will never be out of the question

R115 I got an email from from the espy campaign this afternoon. They are polling 0.9% behind. I donated. We can't give up fighting, no matter what

R124, it's not totally silly but does make my point. There is a danger in going too far in one direction. That said, I'd take a country of uber-liberal Californias any day over even one Ohio.

Link to go with R127...

[quote]Didn't they already have that? And I doubt that Gavin would veto much that came out of the legislature anyway.

R122, we did, but then we lost it in June in the primaries when a Democrat got recalled by his constituents for being an asshole. The Repube won the special election and will be in office until December. Though we will be back to having a Supermajority, even bigger now,

Democrats never lost the majority in the legislature, just the veto proof Supermajority which they have back again. That will teach Democrats not to get too sassy with their constituents. Cuz' the voters will bring a bitch down.

Inmate

Utah seems to love gerrymandering. Barely in favor of prop 4.

CA-21 is also on the verge of flipping. Valadeo (R) has lost 70% of it's lead since election day and is now only ahead by 3k votes.

[quote]Is there any chance that California could go too liberal?

I don't think so.

California hasn't even abolished the death penalty yet.

FDR, JFK, and LBJ were all liberals. The New Deal, The New Frontier, and the Great Society, respectively were liberal principles that got us out of the Great Depression on through to the Civil Rights Movement.

R114 Oprah!!!

The thing about Democrats is that they're not rigid by nature. Get a bunch of Democrats and they split into factions of various sorts. So, yes, California has supermajorities , but they're not all in lockstep--the north and the south have things they squabble about and the inland areas resent the coastal cities. You also have a split between moderate Democrats like Dianne Feinstein and more progressive ones like Kamala Harris.

The California Republicans did themselves in--refused to work with the Democrats, used their minorities to create massive gridlock and screw up our tax base. The last big Republican bastion is eroding, so it's going to just be the really rural reasons with very few people in them.

That's where Republicans shine. They are one united front when it comes to using their united power to push their overall conservative agenda through.

So, basically, the moderate Dems in California take the place of where a sane, moderated Repug party might otherwise be. Well, I'm glad California is in good shape, then. I look to it as the test area for what our country could be without deplorable shitheads so I didn't want to think they'd go too far with super-majorities.

R137, the problem for them is that is a suicidal long term strategy with a shrinking base. This is a left of center country and they will be on the losing end of history. No one has ever been able to tell me even one conservative ideal or goal that has won in the long term. There has never been one.

Society liberalizes everywhere, always. Ask the Puritans and Pilgrims what they think of today's Republican party and they'd be calling them liberal loons. Divorce? Inter-racial marriage? Women clergy? Women working? Women in government? Black people voting? A black man being president? And on and on. They'd be appalled.

Society has always gotten more liberal. Then, those who are conservative slowly adopt what used to be liberal. Then, the liberals move even further toward liberal ideals and eventually the conservatives, again, adopt those before the liberals go even further. It's the way of society. There is actually no such thing as a conservative given enough time. It's hilarious to try to watch a conservative argue against that fact.

Good post, R136.

I would add that despite California's reputation as an uber-liberal pinko free for all, most of the state's Dem leaders are of the Obama/Clinton type. There's a practical quality to their liberalism, and even those who are more progressive tend to be like Kamala Harris about it, not Bernie Sanders.

Yes R137 they've always been fascists, the only good thing the man who disrespected veterans on Veterans Day has done is make that fact undeniably visible to the rest of the non-mouth breathing world.

R140, Yep, Bernie Sanders didn't do well in California, even lost in places like Oakland and San Francisco. There are far too many people who like making lots of money for socialism to be a thing. Also, the different ethnic minorities all skew Democratic, but they don't necessarily skew all that liberal. And Jerry Brown has always been on the parsimonious side.

If there was still a moderate Republican branch, that would probably be viable in California, but the GOP killed that segment of itself a while ago.

The fact that the Republicans don't even give a shit and don't even bother to give a half assed lip service to the veterans should scare the shit out of us all. Because these Republicans must count on something big to come to help them. Fake terrorist attack?

The irony in the Big Lie about Liberalism, and Progressivism is that they're erroneously portrayed as the enemy of capitalism. The fact is FDR's policies saved Capitalism. No less than the brilliant Felix Rohatyn in his book on the American Century, stated that it is the obligation of government to assume an activist role in guiding the economy through crises. That is what FDR did. There is no such thing as a pure capitalist economy or a pure socialist economy, or a pure communist economy. Every economy in the world is a mixed economy, partly socialist, partly capitalist, partly communist. It is the corporatists who insist on demonizing socialism and Liberals when really we are the ones who preserve the ideals of democracy.

Jewish deplorahag rants about the "fucking Jews" during Florida recount protest

There is a strong chance that Florida Democrats win one election.

On MSNBC they're talking about the lynching joke by Espy's (MS Dem) opponent. It's making me tear up.

[quote]Federal court finds that Gwinnett County’s mass rejection of absentee ballots based on an omitted or incorrect birth year violates the Civil Rights Act. These ballots MUST be counted! Win for voters in Georgia whose votes and voices matter!

R148 that’s great news! I would love to see Kemp go down because of the shit he pulled.

*MAINE UPDATE*

Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) is suing to stop the ranked-ballot tabulation because he is afraid that Jared Golden (D) will overtake him in the count.

Some Law Professors are already saying that Poliquin is on shaky ground legally.

Rick Hasen, Professor of Law at UC Irvine:

[quote]I'm a lawyer and I don't think much of a constitutional claim against ranked choice voting. And I think such a claim comes too late (it is barred by "laches"). The use of ranked choice voting is not a surprise and its implementation rules have been available for a while.

Again, a Democratic Socialist is NOT like Socialism was in Russia or China or anywhere else. It does not mean the government will take all the money from the rich or upper middle class or that everything will be government run. It means that the fucking very rich will pay taxes, maybe for the first time in their lives. The upper middle class will pay their fair share in taxes but will get so much back if we go, like the rest of the world, to Medicare for all. The government does a much better job running Medicare and Medicaid than any top notch private insurance company can. Money will be spent on roads and bridges and such, do the rich not use these? It will be spend on education so we don't have a country of morons that keep electing those like Trump and other Republicans, which is why the GOP is against education.

What about spending for clean air, do the very rich not breathe the same air the poor and working poor do. Why should they not pay for it too, like the working and middle class do?

Please stop giving a false perception of what this kind of Socialism would do.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Joins Protest Outside Pelosi’s Office

Ocasio-Cortez is a loose cannon like her mentor, Bernie Sanders. She seems to always put her face in front of a camera "taking a stand" for WTF ever.

R153, it's going to get old, fast.

Looking good for Dems in the last two Orange County House races, where the Republicans are ahead by only a little, and ballots mailed last minute are being counted (they're typically mostly Democratic).

Moi, Ms. Brenda Snipes, Empress of Elections in Broward County, has been vindicated by the justice system! Now get me a Tab, lots of ice.

Pence's former lover speaks.

R157, I SO hope this is not a hoax.

If Pence were openly gay and pro-LGBT, I'd be into him. Love daddy types like him.

I'm worried Dems are leaving Abrams to fend for herself in Georgia against the hole state government. Hope the Dems are pumping in resources to help her campaign. Gotta get that runoff election.

New analysis.

Of course it's a hoax, R158, but I'm with that it would be absolutely delightful if it were true.

[quote]I'm worried Dems are leaving Abrams to fend for herself in Georgia against the hole state government. Hope the Dems are pumping in resources to help her campaign. Gotta get that runoff election.

Oh Dear! a hole state requires much pumping to get sufficient runoff

Please consider donating to Stacy Abrams recount.

Please consider donating, texting, writing postcards for mike espy in Mississippi.

I believe good wins. Let's do this

Or at least tweet her your support.

Analysis of midterm results — nice turnover of incumbants.

From today's Electoral Vote webpage, on the Hyde-Smith vs. Espy race:

On November 27, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) will face Mike Espy (D) in a runoff election for one of the two U.S. Senate seats that are still undecided. This is necessitated by the fact that last week's election was technically a primary, since it was a special election triggered by the resignation of Republican Thad Cochran. In ruby-red Mississippi, the runoff should be a layup, especially since the only thing that prevented Hyde-Smith from taking 50% of the vote (and thus a victory without need for a runoff) were folks voting for an even more conservative candidate. It is unlikely that those people are suddenly going to discover an affinity for a Democrat who also happens to be black.

Still, Hyde-Smith is doing whatever she can to keep it competitive. Late Sunday, a recording from early November leaked in which she—while attempting to show affection for a supporter—declared that, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be on the front row." "Public hanging" is dangerously close to "lynching," and this from a white woman in a state that had more lynchings than any other: 581 between 1882 and 1968, most famously that of 14-year-old Emmett Till in 1955. In short, it was an ill-considered joke, or remark, or whatever it was that she was going for.

The Senator does not appear to have improved the situation with her response on Monday. She began by issuing a defiant statement:

In a comment on Nov. 2, I referred to accepting an invitation to a speaking engagement. In referencing the one who invited me, I used an exaggerated expression of regard, and any attempt to turn this into a negative connotation is ridiculous.

In the span of roughly 2 very awkward minutes, she offered up half a dozen variations on a non-answer answer: "I put out a statement yesterday and we stand by that statement," "I put out a statement yesterday and that's all I am going to say about it," etc.

Part 2 of the Electoral Vote article:

As we noted yesterday, this brings to mind George Allen's "macaca" moment, when he blew his Senate race in Virginia by making a similar kind of verbal gaffe and then failing to own it. Is it really plausible the same could happen in Mississippi? It's not probable, but it is plausible. The black population of Mississippi is about 1.1 million, and they make up a higher percentage of that state's overall population than is the case in any of the other 49 states. Roughly 900,000 folks cast votes last Tuesday. So, if enough black voters are spurred to action by this, coupled with the state's white, liberal rump, and possibly some urban/suburban folks who decide that this new information means Hyde-Smith isn't the candidate for them, things could get interesting. The one thing that is certain is that the incident has caused money to pour into Espy's campaign coffers from across the country, which means he'll have plenty of cash for advertising, get-out-the-vote operations, and the like. (Z)

I bet Hyde-Smith's lynching "joke" will make her MORE popular with white Mississippians. That's how these things go.

Florida was fine with "monkeying" and "cotton picking". MS will be fine with "hanging". they always like their racism unadulterated.

Pic at R170: The Deplorables of 1931 had tats, but they weren't as fat as they are today.

Holy shit, they showed pictures of lynchings on MSNBC. FUCK.

R172, why?

[quote]Georgia ... the hole state

I thought they were the peach state.

there's a difference?

r132 But wasn't that race called for Valadao a few days ago? I assumed that meant there weren't enough uncounted ballots to make a difference.

I wish someone would total up the number of years of Republican incumbency that were ended last Tuesday.

Orrin Hatch alone must have been a century.

CA still going strong.

So the Dems are gonna end with, how many House seats? In the CNN page is still 225.

Per 538, there are still 13 House races unresolved. Right now, they're predicting a 38- seat pickup for Democrats.

Mail-in ballots are doing their thing in OC. Katie Porter just took the lead.

Not only that, Josh Harder is now Congressman-elect Josh Harder.

He's going crazy.

BernieBro @ R151, you don't need some fancy concept like democratic socialism for that. Plenty of European countries, none of them has ever been socialist, provide good education, universal health care, good infrastructure, worker rights ...

Bernie, the Putin stooge is pushing these talking points to move young, easily impressible people away from the democrats to help Trump. Also since Russia never adopted capitalism and their idea of socialism completely failed (the old Soviet Union collapsed after only 69 years and the country is still a shithole now) he loves nothing more than making youngsters doubt the economic fundament of the West = capitalism.

It's all part of a bigger plan of Putin to saw discord, division and distrust. He hates that Russia is a backwater and is obsessed with wanting to restore it to its old glory. He isn't just doing this in the US BTW, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, all see the rise of hard leftist parties that undermine the power of the centrists.

I think it was Hillary who said that he is playing 3D chess to get what he wants. It was an ex-Kremlin insider who said unless the West eliminates Putin, he will not stop.

Beto also wanted Pelosi out BTW. He was one of the last superdelegates to vote for Hillary and he was among the people who perpetuated the storyline that Bernie was treated unfairly by the DNC.

I like him, I think he's good, but honestly unless he distances himself from the crazy BernorBusters, I don't want him in a leading democratic position.

Agree r185. And until Sanders and his wife are cleared of all the Russian connections allegations, I won't feel comfortable supporting or voting for anyone who's in their court at all.

Too much dissension was conveniently sown this past election cycle (2016). Stein and Sanders may have organically come about as candidates, maybe not.

Josh Harder is handsome.

Porter (D) is now pulling ahead of Walters (R) in CA 45.

So which districts have flipped in California. Is kind of hard to tell ??

[quote]Beto also wanted Pelosi out BTW. He was one of the last superdelegates to vote for Hillary and he was among the people who perpetuated the storyline that Bernie was treated unfairly by the DNC.

Beto, like Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, was a Clinton supporter. He endorsed her over Bernie Sanders during the primaries and won Bernie's hate as a result. Bernie did not endorsed Beto in the idterms until miltiple people called him out on it. There is no love lost between Beto and Sanders.

Are you sure about that? Beto was not a Bern Bro and if I remember correctly Bernie did not endorsed Beto unltil very late. Beto also was

Well the Trump strategists' plan was to encourage Democratic candidates far enough on the Left in the primaries so that they were unelectable in the general. Failing that, if the Left candidate managed to win, as improbable as that seemed, they knew that once they went to Congress they would not be team players. The GOP always looks for ways to divide and disrupt. Just like Trump.

Bernie has also been running around recruiting candidates and campaigning and supporting insurgent candidates and so the goals of the GOP/Trump strategists and Bernie were in tandem. Make no mistake. Bernie sees himself as a old style radical. He sees himself as an insurgent who has stated that he wanted to tear down the Democratic Party and rebuild it. So if he saw opportunity to ally himself with people who had similar goals, he take it.

Getting rid of Pelosi was part of their agenda. Bernie & his people stupidly saw the GOP demonization of Pelosi as helpful to their own goal of getting rid of her for "new blood." Bernie saw Pelosi as a deal maker and a status quo person, (and a woman.) The GOP saw Bernie's efforts to bring fresh new faces in, as something compatible with their goals. So, yeah. It all works out. And we Democrats are left to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Wanted to add that as I recall from my readings in political philosophies, etc. This is something that Lenin called "the unity of opposites."

So for now California Democrats are flipping 5 seats

Ca-48 Harley Rouda(D) by 11K votes.

Ca-49 Mike Levin(D) by 22k votes.

Ca-10 Josh Harder(D) by 5k votes.

Ca.-45 Katie Porter(D) by [bold]261[/bold] votes. Mary !!!!!

Ca-25 Katie Hill(D) Already won.

Plus votes are still being counted in District 21 and District 39 where Dems are inching closer to their Republican opponents.

Ca-39 Young Kim(R) by [bold]711[/bold] votes.

Ca-21 David Valadeo(R) by 2,444 votes.

Goodness. The Republicans will go from 14 House seats to 9-7 House seats. Another endangered species in the state of California.

Closer and closer in OC. It's looking GOOD!

Marching orders.

Please no Bernie in 2020. Good God.

Beto as a superdelegate became a Clinton supporter very late and he very much sided with Bernie in 2016 and couldn't see that BS was a total fraud. Unfortunately I can't find the interview he did when he was asked about why he was the last superdelegate to support Clinton, and he said something in a dismissive tone like "Yeah, I am with her now".

He didn't support Pelosi and wanted her out, he openly rejected her help for his senate race. He said the same about Obama "We don't need him". Even if he did think this, it's a totally dumb thing to say publicly.

Like I said, I like him, he is a good guy, but he is not willing to work within the system. Let him stay in Texas, he's not ready yet for Washington and at this point with this attitude he could do more harm than good, esp if he had to make decisions on the level of foreign policy. In terms of naivete, levelheadedness and practical thinking he still behaves like a SJW college boy.

Utah is rejecting a ballot measure to eliminate gerrymandering. Fair-minded people — blech.

Beto was reacting to the leaks of the e-mails, which if you remember correctly, turned many Democrats against Hillary Clinton when they first came out. Beto would go on to apologize to Hillary.

Beto endorsed Hillary over Sanders.

I don 't have my hopes up but I am still wishing.

[quote]Beto would go on to apologize to Hillary.

Quote please, where and when did he apologize to Hillary?

He definitely criticized Clinton's campaign and praised Sanders' instead.

I am not saying he isn't great, I just think he should stay away from federal politics for now until he matures up.

Bernbros are to Democrats what MtTs are to women.

R200, ???????? Beto served 2 terms as a federal congressman.

R202, they probably meant national politics.

R203 the federal government deals with national politics, i.e., the politics of governing the nation. This is in contrast to state or local government.

If you are a federal congressperson, you deal with federal issues. You deal with issues concerning governing the nation= national politics.

R204, thanks for the mansplaining but it's very clear exactly what the poster was talking about. Beto is not ready for the national stage in politics. National politics = presidential politics.

No more Flake, Corker, Rohrbacher, Walker, Issa, LaPage, Donovan, Kobach, and very soon, Paul Ryan. Next up, Susan Collins. Unfortunately we will get spineless Romney and maybe Scott. At least the wins in AZ and Nevada will ensure that Democrats can count on their votes unlike Heitkamp and O'Donnell who voted with Republicans 50% of the time. I hope this a lesson to Tester to stop being a toadie and vote in his constituents best interests and not what McConnell told him to vote for. Manchin is on a gloating tour because he survived and actually bragged on Morning Joe that he voted with the Republicans more than any other Democrat. What a repulsive asshole. He won't change and will continue to be a Republican lackey. It's a shame he wasn't voted out instead of the other two who did show courage in voting against Kavanaugh.

R205, the poster said Beto "stay away from federal politics for now until he matures up".

Clearly the poster did not know Beto has experience in federal politics.

As for your assertion that national politics are presidential politics, fine. Explain then 435 federal congress people and 100 federal senators who legislate national issues.

Beto doesn't have what it takes to stand up to the Putins, Xis and Assads. Not another kumbaya Obama type democrat in the WH.

Does

Does Beto have plans?

We need to hold on to the House and take the Senate in 2020, and we ought to make Mitch McConnell #1 on our list of people to utterly defeat. I'm praying Nelson can squeeze it out in Florida because there are few people I dislike more than Scott.

As for Beto, I think he is a bit fickle.He lacks the maturity and judgement I'd like to see in anyone who aspires to national office. It looks like to me the Bernie candidates, I call them Insurgents, who won in the House, are the ones who are rattling sabers about getting rid of Pelosi.

These dumb asses campaigned on the Affordable Care Act and seem to have amnesia about who got that damned thing through Congress and made sure it got passed, also negotiating with the Senate leadership.

They need to ask themselves who they want sitting across the table in an intelligence briefing or in negotiations with Senate leadership, Pelosi or some newbie? There is no one I trust to sit across from that slithering snake, McConnell than Pelosi. The Republicans love division. The Insurgents will play right in to their hands.

[quote] I hope this a lesson to Tester to stop being a toadie and vote in his constituents best interests and not what McConnell told him to vote for.

BS, R206. I know Tester, and I can assure you that he doesn't take his marching orders from anyone -- especially not Yertle the Turtle McConnell. I don't necessarily agree with all of his votes, but for Montana, he is about as progressive as we can hope to get.

2020 — seven senators who are in trouble.

[quote] I'm praying Nelson can squeeze it out

Pics please.

MSNBC just showed Rick Scott in DC, posing next to McTurtle for a pic of the newly elected GOP Senators!

And the camera didn't spontaneously combust r214?

Nov. 14, 2018

Yes, It Was A Blue Wave

[quote]Beto doesn't have what it takes to stand up to the Putins, Xis and Assads. Not another kumbaya Obama type democrat in the WH.

R208 why are you leaving Osama Bin Laden off of your list?

Beto will be fine. The country needs a president of depth and thought, not another blustering baby like Trump.

[quote]Beto doesn't have what it takes to stand up to the Putins, Xis and Assads. Not another kumbaya Obama type democrat in the WH.

Please. An actual dog in the WH (Bo, you are missed!) will be better at foreign policy than Agent Orange.

CNBC:

the blue wave of 2018 in a nutshell:

Republicans carried white evangelical Christians by 53 percentage points

Democrats carried everyone else by 34 points

white evangelical Christians are only one-fourth of the electorate

Great, R219. And honestly, 25% of the electorate is too high. YOU look at that if you're a political campaign professional and you say we need to cobble together 26% more to win. If your rock bottom, hard core is 25%. Then you start picking off different demographic groups. YOU do polling, focus groups, etc. and figure out how to "message" to the ones you believe are "soft." We need to hold what we have and start working on a piece of the Evangelicals. I think the Latino Evangelicals (And there are a lot of them) will be easiest to persuade to break away.

Makes me wonder if McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp ran as strong unapologetic Democrats if they would have been reelected. They should have hit hard on Social Security, Medicare, health care, and ran ads showing Republicans talking about "entitlement programs need to be addressed and preexisting conditions. Trump himself put out a statement that showed zero enthusiasm or conviction.

I wish Mc Caskkill and Donnelly had contested. I think the margin of victory was too great in Heitkamp's case, but McCaskill and Donnelly's were closer weren't they?

I think we will gain two more House seats today. This isn't over. I'm praying Bill Nelson still has a shot at the Florida Senate seat.

LOLOLOLOL

‘The Grand Old Party is dead’: Agony in California as Republican losses spiral

An obituary appeared Tuesday in CALmatters, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization based in Sacramento.

Kristin Olsen, the vice chair of the California Republican Party, announced the death of the political grouping to which she has belonged her entire adult life.

“The California Republican Party isn’t salvageable at this time,” she wrote in a guest column. “The Grand Old Party is dead — partly because it has failed to separate itself from today’s toxic, national brand of Republican politics."

Tuesday brought ample evidence of her point, as Rep. Jeff Denham became the latest California Republican to fall victim to the blue wave that may not have swept the nation but certainly crested in California, the nation’s most populous state.

The four-term incumbent was unseated in California’s farm belt by Josh Harder, a former venture capitalist, the Associated Press concluded a week after voters went to the polls to deliver a nationwide verdict on the first two years of the Trump presidency.

Pam and I want to thank the people of our community for the humbling privilege to serve you in Congress. I pledge that I will always put this community before anything in Washington. pic.twitter.com/DLntjBvaWA

— Josh Harder (@joshua_harder) November 14, 2018 Though the results included bright spots for Republicans, namely the preservation of their Senate majority, Democratic gains in the House, as well as in state and local races, have only grown stronger as close races continue to be called.

Denham joined Reps. Steve Knight and Dana Rohrabacher as ousted GOP incumbents in California. Republicans also surrendered an open seat that will be vacated by Rep. Darrell Issa.

Contests for two California seats have yet to be decided. As of Tuesday night, Republican Rep. Mimi Walters was trailing her Democratic challenger, Katie Porter, in Orange County, the birthplace of modern conservatism. Meanwhile, Republican Young Kim has watched her lead over Democrat Gil Cisneros narrow in an immigrant-heavy swath of Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties.

“While the rest of the nation saw a mix of Republican and Democrat victories, we in California experienced a blue tsunami,” Olsen wrote. “It looks as if Democrats will win nearly every target seat, including some in districts that have been historically considered ‘safe’ for Republicans.”

Denham was in the unenviable position of defending California’s 10th Congressional District, one of seven districts in the state that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 but also put a Republican in the House. Unemployment remains higher in the district, which includes part of the San Joaquin Valley, than the state average, and more than 40 percent of the district’s residents are Hispanic, according to census data.

Democrats harnessed anger with the president, painting the incumbent as a “loyal foot soldier for the Trump agenda.” At town halls, he clashed with his constituents, who scolded him for supporting GOP efforts to undo the Affordable Care Act. “Denham lies,” read a sign at one such event.

His opponent, meanwhile, pledged to support Medicare-for-all and emphasized “humane immigration reform.”

I believe there are margins where a votes are recounted by default. Beyond that it may backfire on the one who demands a recount media-wise. But then Republicans don't give a fuck about looking like a sore loser when they demand the recount, but they sure pile on the Democrats who ask for them.

Good job, NJ!

N.J. Democrat Defeats Trump Ally, Leaving the State With Just 1 Republican in Congress

Andy Kim, a New Jersey Democrat who had been locked in a neck-and-neck race for Congress, has defeated his Republican opponent, a two-term incumbent and staunch ally of President Trump, according to a final vote tally.

After a drawn-out vote count, Mr. Kim, a former national security adviser under President Barack Obama, was declared the winner by a slim margin, beating Representative Tom MacArthur, who wrote a key amendment in the effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, according to The Associated Press.

The victory by Mr. Kim caps a devastating midterm election for Republicans in New Jersey.

With 11 Democrats now holding House seats, Representative Chris Smith is the lone Republican in Washington from New Jersey; the last time Democrats had such a large advantage Theodore Roosevelt was in the Oval Office.

...

Well, I imagine Californa went full on blue, because there was nobody in the right place to make the vote results, during the counting process, favor the Republican Party?

That was one of my favorite victories, r226. MacArthurs ads were despicable... didn’t even try to hide the racism. So happy Andy Kim won!

Nov. 14, 2018

How Beto O’Rourke Shifted The Map In Texas

(how Texas is becoming bluer.)

This might be membership only but, either way, it's a great read about the damage that Republican gerrymandering did after their 2010 wave election. That damage still exists today. Some snippets:

More than 1.3 million Wisconsin voters backed a Democratic candidate for the state Assembly, compared to 1.1 million ballots for Republicans. The GOP, however, maintained its 63-36 supermajority in the Assembly and expanded its edge in the state Senate.

...

In Michigan, more voters cast ballots for Democratic state House and Senate candidates. Nevertheless, Republicans kept control of both chambers. Democrats have now won more total votes for the state House in four consecutive elections without claiming a majority. In the state Senate, Democrats earned 50.4 percent of the votes. Republicans will claim 58 percent of the seats.

...

Gerrymandered districts also blocked majority will in North Carolina’s state legislature. Republicans will maintain majorities in both chambers despite a minority of votes. Democrats earned 51 percent of the state House vote, but just 45 percent of the seats. On the Senate side, Democrats also won the most votes — but Republicans captured 58 percent of the seats. A majority of voters wanted Democratic control. On these maps, the best those majorities could do was break GOP veto-proof supermajorities.

In Ohio, the popular vote for Democratic congressional candidates increased to 48 percent, an uptick of 5.4 percentage points. Not only did that translate into zero new seats, but Republicans will still hold 12 of the state’s 16 seats — 75 percent of the power with 52 percent of the vote. This split is just as stark in North Carolina, where Democrats won more than 49 percent of the overall congressional vote, failed to flip a U.S. House seat for the fourth straight election of this redistricting cycle , and once again hold just three of the state’s 13 seats in Washington. North Carolina’s electorate shifted from red to blue. The seats didn’t budge.

Compare that to Pennsylvania, where the state Supreme Court ordered a new, non-partisan congressional map installed for 2018, after overturning district lines that had produced a 13-5 GOP delegation in 2012, 2014, and 2016 as an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. The new districts created a fairer outcome: Democrats won 53 percent of the popular vote, and converted it into 50 percent of the seats. (In contrast, Democrats won just a tick under 50 percent of the statewide vote in 2016, but just 28 percent of the seats.)

...

It was so effective that in 2012, Democrats won 1.4 million more votes for the U.S. House, but Republicans retained a 234-201 majority. That crumbled this week, thanks in part to court decisions against partisan and racial gerrymandering that mandated fairer congressional maps and new districts in Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida.

...

Democrats may have flipped the U.S. House, but the next set of lines will be drawn by state legislatures that remain deeply gerrymandered. When voters can’t translate majorities into seats in the chambers that are supposed to be most responsive, nothing less than democracy itself is at risk.

Democrats tore down the Orange Curtain in California.

Trump destroyed his walled citadel in California.

Jesus...nothing like a bunch of people on the coasts bitching about McCaskill and Heitkamp and feeling cocky just because they finally kicked some of the Republicans out of CA, NY and NJ. You come to ND or MO and see how far your liberal Progressive policies get you.

r232 Quit crying you little bitch. Liberal policies do just fine in those areas. Just don't call them liberal policies. They LOVE their SS, Medicare, Medicaid, rich paying more taxes than the middle class, Obamacare and many other liberal policies.

True r233.

Conservative states just approved the medicaid expansion and minimum wage increases. Democrat policies are broadly popular, just Democrats themselves are not thanks to the right-wing propaganda machine.

r234 Most of these "red" states or areas have local TV owned by the likes of Sinclair and such. Conservatives cannot win with their rotten policies which don't work and are not popular so they MUST demonize the left because, facts are facts, liberal policies work and are very popular.

[quote]In Michigan, more voters cast ballots for Democratic state House and Senate candidates. Nevertheless, Republicans kept control of both chambers. Democrats have now won more total votes for the state House in four consecutive elections without claiming a majority. In the state Senate, Democrats earned 50.4 percent of the votes. Republicans will claim 58 percent of the seats.

That problem may have sorted itself. They had a ballot initiative to shift redistricting out of the legislature and into an independent commission. It passed overwhelmingly.

Well Ray Charles could have seen that train. To the degree that GOP elected officials continue to be joined at the hip to Trump they will all go to Hell. The party leaders need to dump him.

You're right, R233...most Americans love Medicare and Medicaid and other benefits -- they just don't understand why the Democrats are fighting for 10+ Million illegal immigrants to have them.

You all need to wake up. We need conservative Democrats. Progressives bitch all the time about Joe Manchin. Do you really think we can do better? Do you really think some Liberal is going to win that seat? Would you rather have a Republican there?

r238 Dems aren't fighting to give illegals those benefits, dear. Though illegals DO pay taxes. Sales taxes for one. We absolutely need moderate Dems like Manchin in seats like WV. No one with half a brain thinks otherwise. You have a warped ( or trollish) sense of what Dems are really fighting for. Liberal policy is always more successful and more popular than conservative policy. It is just the way it is. Every single income group does better under Liberal policy while only the very top do better under conservative policy. Sometimes the left goes too far but they are the only side who is actually on the side of the avg citizen.

Man, this says it all to that point r230.

Over 70% of the seats that were flipped in the election were drawn by nonpartisan sources. It was the few places democracy wasn't gerrymandered to death that made the will of American people possible.

We all know this past midterm election would have been a blue tsunami times 1000 if the repugs weren't cheaters and had not gerrymandered districts to within an inch of their lives. I think Claire and Joe had it in the bag until they said stupid shit late in the game.

They are pushing so many people like young voters, asians, latinos, women, the educated to be life-long Dem voters with their crap. Good for us.

Utah Republican congresswoman sues to halt vote count.

[quote]The lawsuit states Love and her campaign “do not anticipate a large number of challenges” but that poll monitors “have observed myriad instances where a county worker verified a signature on a ballot envelope that did not appear to match the signature on file with the County.”

[quote]The Salt Lake County Clerk’s office did not respond to a request for comment. County clerks have until Nov. 20 to finish counting ballots. The state’s election results are set to be finalized Nov. 26.

more at link

The GOP really hates democracy r242.

Though it is hilarious in this case since the vote count is actually *helping* Mia Love. Bet she changes her tune

For Houstonians, incumbent state representative Dwayne Bohac (R) keeps his seat by 47 votes.

And the next time you think about not bothering to vote, remember him.

Will one of you political savvy folks such as Poll Troll explain to me why it is so monumentally great that California, the bluest place on the planet, became bluer? I do understand the breaking down of Rep stronghold Orange County is historic, and I am not minimizing the success that all the wins throughout the state mean to the party as a major morale booster much needed in the times of Trump.

But as far as being an indicator of what is to come in 2020, wouldn't the breaking down of 2 red or purple states with a goodly number of electoral votes(such as Fl and Texas) have been a better bellwether for predicting success in beating T in 2020? I mean, if I have read once I have read twenty times here that even if HRC had won the popular vote by 20 million, and those 20 million votes came out of Cali, it would not have made a whit of difference.

Break it down as if you are talking to a sixth grader if you please.

r244 But but but the 2 parties are all the same!!!!! No one INSPIRED me to vote. I need motivation. If you aren't 100% in line with my views them I'm not voting!

It won't matter for the Presidential election that California is all blue. In a winner takes all system, once a state tips blue or red, the added popular votes mean nothing. It would matter a lot more if purple states like Florida and Ohio got bluer. But they're going in the opposite direction.

Well it is a big deal right now because it just gave the Democrats more representation in the House r245. And the Democrats did flip a couple seats in Texas btw. They flipped seats everywhere.

People are talking about it so much more because they just find it amusing that even the traditionally Republican areas of California have now been pushed to the left because of Trump. It's pretty astounding that in a state as mammoth as California, with over 10% of America's population, Republicans are becoming an endangered species. And particularly with Orange County, Orange County is basically the birthplace of Reagan Republicanism. It was his home base.

CA getting bluer is important as far as the state sends the highest number of Reps in the House, and Dem gains there benefit the House majority.

r247 Florida is not going in the opposite direction. FL is the very definition of a purple state. You don't get closer, in every fucking election, than FL.

[quote]It would matter a lot more if purple states like Florida and Ohio got bluer. But they're going in the opposite direction.

The Florida elections could not be closer, people are really overstating it there. You are talking about the Dem candidates being down by the tiniest possible margin.

And with a million and a half ex-cons now having their voting rights restored, R250, Florida just got a bit bluer.

Dems did flip them in a lot of places, including Texas. But we also flipped four in Pennsylvania. All we would need to do is to keep Hillary's blue states from 2016 and add to them Pennsylvania, Michigan (where we also flipped a seat and the governor's mansion), as well as Wisconsin (where we got rid of the dreadful Scott Walker). That gets the Democratic nominee 278 Electoral College votes and the Presidency.

So, we made some very good progress in that direction on Election Night.

Does anyone really think that ex-cons are going to turn out en masse to vote in any election? It seems highly unlikely that it's a super involved, civic-minded, set of people.

I am so pissed. I went to the fucking store to get my Cinnamon Toast Crunch( don't judge) and went to pay. Wouldn't you know it, I forgot my fucking ID! I am going to have the shakes by morning.

R255 Good one!

I was floored when I heard that fucking orange moron say that during one of his mental health rallies. God help us.

R252 what on earth makes people think ex-cons would be particularly Democratic leaning? Because of the racial composition of that group? If anything a lot of ex-cons in Florida would probably be deplorables.

R257, I think something like 70% or more of ex-felons are black or Latino. And, even if those groups weren't already likely to vote Democratic, they don't exactly have a love affair with the justice system and the rahrah, shoot first, ask questions later Repug police officers that dominate it. In the prisons, the guards are Repugs and social workers are democrats. They know the difference.

And, it's not just people who just got out that are having their rights restored. It's people who have gotten out at any time in the last 60 years or so who have never been able to vote like their peers do for something they did when they were 19. Yes, they will vote.

R254, even if only 10% or 15% of the million plus ex-felons voted, that's more than enough to affect the outcome of statewide Florida elections. In the most recent Senate race, Scott leads by less than 13,000 votes and in the Governor's race, DeSantis leads by less than 34,000 votes.

R221 I agree.,

In the 80s and early 90s no where was more loyal to hard line republicanism than Orange County and surrounding cities. The modern day national GOP has sacrificed it while California Republicans have delivered no counter argument...just thumbs up their assess. Coming soon to a state near you!

Gerrymandering needs to be abolished for good. The members of the Republican Party, and their supporters and donors, need to be declared enemy of the US. Only then the US can start to get better.

Deadline to cure ballots extended in Florida.

Is there a website dedicated to live updates on the recount in Florida? Would love to follow it.

Well it is not going to happen at the Supreme Court level r262. That possibility is gone.

Dem is declared winner in Maine

Maine 2 result: Democrat Jared Golden has won. That's a pick up for the Democrats.

They're so under-resourced. This is atrocious. It's almost like citizens need to DONATE to counties to get them to hire enough staff to count votes moving forward.

Mia Love (R) - Utah - suing to stop vote count. She's slightly behind.

Virginia gerrymandering case headed to the Supreme Court.

Susan Collins is the *only* Republican left in the entire federal delegation from New England.

1) That is crazy

2) We got to get her out

Agreed, R270. I'm also disappointed that New Englanders vote in GOP governors.

R266, yay! I have friends who worked for his campaigns!

Two CA House races still not called. Katie Porter (D) at 51% in one district, Young Kim (R) 50% with Gil Cisneros (D) 50% in the other.

Lololol

Runoff entirely possible.

Young Kim

Republican

99,501t50.0%

Gil Cisneros

Democrat

99,379t50.0%

Go, Texas!

WAAAAHHHH

MS

Please consider donating, text, writing postcards for mike espy in Mississippi. Let's help him win.

Espy donation page.

Espy volunteering page.

Nice and cute ME news.

Poliquin isn't conceding.

He says he is going to try to continue his constitutional challenge of the Maine ranked-ballot system, but a judge rejected his attempt to stop the count.

Hottie Jared Golden appears to be the winner unless something changes.

Jared Golden shows off his big weapon:

: )

All the legal experts have said he doesn't have a real cash r284.

Yes, R286.

Although some networks are calling Golden the "apparent winner" until the results are certified.

But it looks very good for him.

He's now declaring victory on Twitter:

Judge just ruled: there will be a manual recount in Florida.

YIPPEE!!!!!!

Oops, I meant the Florida Secretary of State ruled that there should be a manual recount.

Yes, although I think the manual recount in Florida will only be for the Senate race.

You think? I naturally hoped it would be for the Governors race. Republicans are such sleazy cheaters...all the votes should be recounted.

The senate race is much closer than the governors race, if one was going to be recounted by hand it is that one.

is the machine recount in FLA done?

I'm so confused.

The Governor's race in Florida is basically done. DeSantis has been declared the winner by some networks.

Only the Senate race will have a manual recount.

I don't know a bout anyone else, but I feel comforted by DL's Poll Troll.

I trust him to give us the truth...…..

ah, fuck.

I hate desatan.

thanks, poll troll. You're the best!

Should we Florida to hand count the ballots correctly. God knows they fuck up everything else. What happens if there are more than 20 ballots and they run out of fingers and toes?

[quote]Among other results, this year's midterm elections affirmed this much: in Washington, the two parties now speak for dramatically different segments of the American economy.

[quote]Republicans represent the smaller, fading segment, with less-educated, more-homogenous work forces reliant on traditional manufacturing, agriculture and resource extraction. Democrats represent the larger, growing one, fueled by finance, professional services and digital innovation in diverse urban areas.

[quote]The 2016 presidential race had signaled as much. Donald Trump carried 2,584 counties across the country, but calculations by scholars at the Brookings Institution showed that the 472 counties Hillary Clinton carried accounted for nearly two-thirds of U.S. economic output.

more at link

[quote]Two CA House races still not called. Katie Porter (D) at 51% in one district, Young Kim (R) 50% with Gil Cisneros (D) 50% in the other.

Porter has been declared the winner. I don't know if all the ballots in the other race have been counted, but the margin is currently 122 votes! NYT website is confusing -- shows leaning blue in the summary, but leaning red on the results page.

Other races still undecided: NY-22, UT-4, GA-7, NY-27, TX-23.

New: in #CA39, Gil Cisneros (D) has *taken the lead* over Young Kim (R), by 941 votes. He's on track to complete Dems' wipeout of GOP in Orange County.

R300 WOW! Thanks for that update. I've been watching it closely, but hadn't seen tonight's update. Great news.

r300 Interesting. It's updated on the LA Times site (shows Cisneros +941) but not on the NY Times (still shows Kim in the lead.)

For R300's race -- it's the last one in CA that the Times hasn't called.

R302, yeah, the Times didn't update the race-specific page, but it did update the CA results page.

Updated count is above:

[quote] The longtime Republican incumbent, Representative Ed Royce, is retiring, and the race to replace him is close in a district that includes parts of Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino Counties. Gil Cisneros, a Navy veteran and lottery winner, is the Democratic candidate; the Republicans are backing Young Kim, a South Korean immigrant who was an aide to Mr. Royce.

It's not updated in the highlighted races list.

LA Times summary of all undecided contests (includes two that have been called by AP). Close races for Supt. of Public Instruction, LACo. Sheriff, etc.

DL, did we miss this? Not an unseating but still notable.

[quote]Zach Wahls, who seven years ago stood before the Iowa House of Representatives and delivered a stirring speech defending his two lesbian mothers, has just become a state lawmaker himself. In a landslide victory over his libertarian opponent, Carl Krambeck, Wahls, a Democrat, clinched 78 percent of the vote in Iowa Senate District 37. Wahls will succeed Sen. Bob Dvorsky (D), who is retiring after more than 30 years.

Lawrence O'Donnell just had Zach on for a short interview.

That's great for him.

R307, it was posted on an earlier thread in this series.

Young Kim was at freshman orientation for new House members. Presumptuous. She behind now.

Let's hope the same fate will befall Rick Scott.

CA Superintendent of Schools: I hope Tony Thurmond defeats Marshsall “charter school” Tuck in California. Teachers and Harris supported Thurmond, while millionaires supported Tuck and outspent Thurmond 2-1. Tuck has spent no time teaching...only boardrooms and cocktail fundraisers. Very DeVoss-light

Kim vs. Cisneros.

OMG, if Cisneros maintains his lead over Young Kim (what's with Koreans being such Republican turds?) that would make it the 6th GOP victim.

California Democrats officially scalped their 5th GOPer today when District 45 was officially called. I got to say when Democrats put a target of 7 seats in California I thought it was too ambitious. But my god, they are coming close to their initial target.

Anyone has an update on District 21 ?

[quote] (what's with Koreans being such Republican turds?)

What's with white people being such Republican turds?

Andy Kim, new House member. Korean-American, Democrat. HE won — Young Kim won't.

R314, here's district 21. The thug won.

It's crazy to see the Orange County switch visually. The difference two years of Trump makes.

Bad news. Broward County flew through the hand recount, which means there weren't issues.

It seems all those undervotes weren't machine error, people just left the Senate election question blank probably due to the poor ballot design. There were enough undevotes that the poor ballot design potentially cost the Dems a Senate seat, they are more than the margin.

R318 thanks. That's really tragic. Can't happen ever again -- ballot design matters, it turns out. Fucking hell.

R317, that's beautiful. Thank you.

Poor ballot design and stupid voters are to blame. Is it that difficult to wonder, hmmm, where’s the senate race? If you don’t see it, go out of the booth and ask a worker. Ridiculous. Floridians strike again. Dems could have had the senate seat. Damnit.

Florida is where hard work, conscientiousness and intelligence go to die.

Ugh. I hate Scott with the heat of a thousand suns. We've been trying to beat him here forever, and somehow, the fucker always manages to squeeze through to a win. Everytime.

He was behind in the polls and....again, he fucking wins.

I hate this state.

R323 -

Everything word you said.

I live in Blue Florida, and beside myself with this goddamn state.

DeSantis and Scott? Fuck me.

^^^^^ Every word you said.

I never got the appeal of Scott, especially with his dealings with the health insurance industry. He practically bought the governorship.

Even so, Dems must get smarter and be always on the ball!

But way for this Broward Co. elections supervisor, or whoever is responsible, to self-sabotage your party's vote with the ballot design! Why would you do that when even the Election Assistance Commission has warned against this type of design in its recommendations?! There are mistakes, and then there is shooting yourself in the foot incompetence.

Btw Susan Collins refused to join Jeff Flake in saying she won't vote to confirm Trump's judges until McConnel allows Mueller protection bill to be voted on.

Another example of why she needs to be a prime target for 2020.

Electoral Vote on Orange County:

California: Rep. Mimi Walters (R) became the latest GOP member to fall in Orange County, as Katie Porter (D) has officially prevailed in CA-45. That leaves CA-39 as the only undecided race remaining in the Golden State. And there, on Thursday, Democrat Gil Cisneros (D) pulled ahead of Young Kim (R) by 941 votes. If Kim does not rebound, it means that Orange County, which was once so red that it has been called the "birthplace of the modern Republican Party," will have no GOP House members.

R328, now that the republicans don't need Collin's vote on anything they will just ignore her. She will be useless to her party and her state. I hope they vote her out.

[quote]Another example of why she needs to be a prime target for 2020.

And here I thought it was just because of her freakishly large head.

Democrat wins Kentucky state house seat by 1 vote.

r332, and here I thought this only happens in movies and TV shows. Wow!

Florida apparently didn’t learn anything in 2000, or at least doesn’t want to. Shady Rick 🐍

The new Senator from the State That's Shaped Like a Penis has a Head That's Shaped Like a Penis Head.

I know a lot of people refer to him as Lord Voldemort. Both bald, both snakey, both evil.

Nate Silver says it's likely that Democrat Gil Cisneros will beat Republican Young Kim in CA-39:

[quote]CA-39: Don’t really see a path for a Young Kim (R) comeback but for the *time being* it’s close, so I guess we'll keep at Likely D.

Valadeo's lead in District 21 (CA-21) has sunk below 2k. Ohhhhhh, another victim to make it 7 in a row ???

So California has flipped almost all of the seats they targeted. But the big one they missed was Duncan Hunter, who's UNDER FEDERAL INDICTMENT. I wonder if they'd have had a better chance with someone more seasoned and Campa-Najjar.

R333, last year there was actually an election in Virginia, I think, that was an actual tie. They decided who won by pulling a ball out of a hat or something. The Repug won that time. Even though I realize it's statistically insignificant, I want to take the Democrat winning this time as a good sign that the end of our nightmare is nigh.

R339, that district wasn't really on the Democratic target list for California.

The district is very red and was represented by Duncan Hunter's father for many terms, so it's a tough one for the Democrats to flip.

It's possible though that a different Democratic candidate might have a chance in the future.

All the Republicans have left are basically criminals, crooks, liars, cheats, and well known hypcrites who are under investigation (or even charged with a crime) one way or the other. And Susan "oh, THAT cunt!" Collins, of course. Can't be that good for your party's overall image.

[quote]It's possible though that a different Democratic candidate might have a chance in the future.

For every Ossoff there is a McBath.

Hunter's victory lap will be pretty short. He and his wife are due in court on Dec. 3. Fingers crossed the sword of justice will fall on their heads.

I am sure Hunter will have plenty of time to vape like the proper douchebag he is ... in prison.

R339, that district is a fucking embarrassment. At least Rohrabacher's district finally had the good sense to give him the boot. And Darrell Issa's district flipped. So yeah, Hunter's district remains the eyesore.

I am sick about Florida. When I moved here we had a Democratic governor(actually we had 3 in a row) and of course Bill Nelson. I cannot remember who the other senator was in 1992.

I do not feel at all good about the future of Florida. Yes, the race for senator was close, but that in itself was a horrible canary in the mine thing. Bill OWNED the state since the 70s, so the fact that Scott managed to defeat him for what was sure to be his final term really speaks horribly about how committed the state is to the Republican Party. I can't tell you how popular Bill was for so many years...so for the people to kick him in the ass like that really is scary. We now have a R governor and 2 R senators. It doesn't get any more RED than that.

And I don't need to remind anyone here that as Florida goes, so goes the Presidential election. People in my area of the state(south Florida above Broward Co,) really like Trump, and so does the Panhandle. Just as Orange Co Ca has squeezed out the Rs, it seems that Fl has squeezed out the Dems. They will always dominate Miami Dade and most of Broward because of the large black and Jewish population, but that's about it statewide.

Feeling sad and salty.

Cisneros (D) now leads Kim by 3020 votes.

r347, great news!!!

R347, the forecasters are pretty confident that Cisneros (D) will beat Kim (R). In fact, some are saying the race is already over.

The only negative result for the Dems right now is that it looks like Mia Love (R) may pull out ahead in the Utah race.

Isn't Mia Love the one that Trump bashed (among others) last week?

R349, Trump mocked Mia Love as a loser in his first post-midterm press conference, and claimed that she lost by distancing herself from him, so I guess her ultimately winning is not all bad.

The Utah race

National vote update from Dave Wasserman:

[quote]Democrats' national lead in U.S. House races just surpassed 8 million votes (now 7.3%).

I think it is possible Trump lashed out against Mia Love because she is an African American Woman. What do you think? So predictable....and disgusting.

Duncan Hunter looks terrible.

R336

And now painfully apparent both are my Senator. Fuck me.

Thank God I live in the Blue area.

^^^^^ I meant to say “racist, fuck face Ron DeSantis IS my new Governor”. Double fuck me.

Cutie Congressman Eric Swalwell on Bill Maher right now...

I really think he wants to be president.

It’s his birthday today

I am not defending Trump, but I heard on MSNBC via Nicole Wallace that Trump was cackling about the losses of ALL the Reps running who did not beg him for help in campaigning in their respective states. I can't believe that he would do anything to make an enemy out of one of the few black Republicans with any hope of a future in politics, Is she a Ben Carson/Clarence Thomas type? I think he likes that sort of black person...and the Kanye type as well.

You have to respect her for not connecting herself to him.

How did those fare who were endorsed by Trump?

R360. I think 23% of Trumps picks were elected. 58% of Obamas were

R359, at his press conference, Trump taunted Love in grotesque terms, saying, "Mia Love, who gave me no love . . ." It was really unpleasant.

R361, that's the figure that I have seen reported.

What is going on with Florida that it's getting redder? It was always filled with old people but is that demographic getting even bigger? Are we concentrating all the old people even more than before? Is it the Cubans? Is their population growing a lot? Are the Democrats just fleeing the state? Have all the black people left?

I knew Florida would be disappointing when I saw that Trump had approval ratings over 50 in the state. I think the immigration issue has really resonated there

r346/r356

I don't want to hear it. Shithole Ohio just elected dewhine who is going to sign that stupid "heartbeat" bill effectively banning safe abortions in this shithole.

The entire state congress and senate is red and they will start more restrictions on LGBT and women.

I need to GTFO before they ban women from owning and selling property.

At least Florida isn't overrun with goddam evangelical pukes.

So Ohio and Florida have effectively been placed in the R column huh? Interesting that it be those two.

It was branded on my brain by Tim Russert(RIP) that those states were absolutely necessary for a D presidential win. Now, I am not suggesting that there are no other EC paths to victory...I am well aware that there are several paths which bypass FL and OH. BUT, his point was the most logical "doable" path included them.

I don't mean to sound like a tinhatter, but is it possible that the Rs doubled down their resources in order to take FL and OH off the Dem table once and for all?

I can't for the life of me understand HOW in the hell FL went from, at the best, a pale blue and at the worst a purple state in less than 20 years. My own recently deceased Greatest Gen parents were registered Reps, but even THEY voted for Bill Nelson, Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham---al Dems to those of you who are younger than 45. This has always been a state where the Dems were not too scary for the Rep voters to vote for. Gillum was too scary, so I kinda understand that one. Everyone seemed to perceive him to be a Socialist and they didn't like that. They chose to vote for a repellent creep in order to stave off the "threat of a Socialist takeover."

But that doesn't explain Bill's loss. No one has ever said a bad word about the man. He was beloved by all from both sides. And the fact that the one person on earth more repellent than Desantis beat him, well it makes absolutely NO sense. In the case of the Gillum defeat I would say that FL is not ready for that progressive a candidate. But it doesn't get any more centrist palatable than Bill Nelson. Other than his advanced age, I can think of not one negative in his column. And let's face it, the age thing isn't that big a deal now that Bernie and Joe are considered electable.

I am not moving out of state because I am 60 and I have moved all my life. I have finally settled and this is it for me. But the idea of having Scott as my senator is revolting. I can live with Gillum as Gov, because he is a slight improvement over Scott. But Scott's appeal to voters I will never comprehend.

[quote]I can live with Gillum as Gov

And where would you have to move to make that happen?

Florida and Ohio can go fuck themselves. Dems can win without them, if the upper Midwest that barely went Trump comes back (as it appears to be doing) and with states like VA, NV, and AZ now appearing blue.

As votes continue to be counted, Devin Nunes, who normally wins his races with 70%, is sitting at 53.5%.

He won his last three elections by: 35%, 42% and 24%.

In 2018 it's a sub 7% margin race.

I wouldn’t totally write Florida off. Obama did win it twice and these loses have been 1% or under. Ohio on the other hand seems like it’s lost.

2 million ballots are still to be counted in California. It wouldn't surprise me if Nunesand and Valadeo end up losing when this is all done.

[quote]So Ohio and Florida have effectively been placed in the R column huh?

No, just Ohio. And not even that, given that they just reelected a Democratic Senator.

Why is California taking so long? Has it always been like this but no one talked about it because everything just stayed the same so there was nothing much to talk about or has something changed?

Yeah California always takes a long time to count all their votes r373, just usually no one pay attentions because it isn't a swing state. We know where their electoral college votes are going to go.

Same with Arizona, which as it moves towards more of a swing state could complicate things in the future in terms of Presidential elections being decided quickly.

California counts all their ballots R373. As long as the envelope is postmarked by midnight the night of the election, California law requires the state to count your vote no matter when it arrives to them. Counties have until December 14 to finish their counting since most Californians vote by mail and it takes many days to count millions upon millions of mailed in votes. Then, the holidays get in the way and you surely do not expect West coasters to be counting ballots when they can be celebrating the holidays with their families, right?

Do not trust the preliminary results as those are only part of the overall vote in California. 2 weeks after the election is usually when you can tell who won those tight races.

Are we getting an update on Cisneros/Kim soon? Could they be close to making a call?

Because of the preeminence of cultural issues, Ohio is transitioning to a deep red state now, similar to what happened to neighboring West Virginia years ago.

West Virginia is a prime example of a state populated by people that hate.

No matter how cruel and corrupt the local GOP government is, they prefer to choose a party that will make their lives miserable as long as it oppresses minorities.

Another Democratic win in Arizona as Secretary of State (second in command in the government of Arizona and the person in charged of overseeing elections) is won by Katie Hobbs (D). This is huge as this will insured the Republican governor doesn't attempt to suppress the vote in 2020. Arizona is now officially purple.

They haven't called Cisneros vs. Kim but Cisneros is ahead by 3000 votes and is almost certainly going to be the winner.

At R347 it shows the same vote count as yesterday evening.

[quote]It was branded on my brain by Tim Russert(RIP) that those states were absolutely necessary for a D presidential win.

No, it's the Republicans who absolutely need to win Ohio and Florida to win the Presidency.

It's preferable for the Democrats to win those states, but it's not as essential since they have other options to win the Electoral College.

Feels good.

Lol, Kim went to the congressional Freshman orientation even though she was told Cisneros might win. How humiliating for Deplorable Young Kim.

Thanks Poll Troll. If you say so, I believe it.

But I keep remembering Russert with his blackboard stating "Florida, Florida, Florida." And that is in fact what that 2000 election came down to.

I am not going to accept that "people who hate" definition which someone up thread ascribed to West Bygod. FL is full of Northeast Jews who moved south for their retirement, and we have a goodly number of blacks. And as I have stated ad nauseum, check Wiki if you guys don't believe that FL was a Blue state prior to the election of JEB!

And one last time(I promise) the fact that Gillum and Bill lost by 1% is not a good sign to me. One owned the state since 1972 and the other was a breath of fresh air for a state suffering from 8 years of Scott(who apparently most of the state wanted another six years of.)

Would it be too much to ask for you to dash off the best path to the presidency EC-wise now that FL and Ohio are long shots? TIA.

After 49 years, they just called the Oscar Best Actress race for Barbra Streisand in Funny Girl, as a newly discovered batch of provisional ballots gives Streisand a slight edge over Katharine Hepburn in The Lion in Winter.

Streisand's lawyers have informed the Hepburn estate that they have until December 15 to concede the race and to turn over Hepburn's fraudulent Oscar to the Academy.

R386

R386 for the win! Hysterical. The Best comment!

Were those ballots from Oscar voters in Orange County or the Central Valley ??

R385 The 2000 election did indeed come down to Florida, and Gore needed Florida to win. But since then, several states have gotten bluer. Bush won New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada in 2000, and all of those have gotten bluer and bluer. If Gore had won ANY of those states, he would have won the election.

Since those states are bluer now, Democrats don't HAVE to have Florida to win (or Ohio), but of course winning Florida is a big plus. Without Florida or Ohio, a Democrat can win by winning all of the states that Hillary won, plus taking back Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Or by flipping states such as Arizona, or North Carolina.

As for Gillum, he had the best showing for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Florida since 1994. Obviously, it's not great that he lost, but it's not a sign of the end of the Democrats in Florida either.

Ohio is still reachable. And FL is always going to be within reach. So they are nothing like CA which has destroyed the repugs on every level by large margins.

I don't see a dem candidate beating Trump in Ohio.

And yes, any talk about Florida being a lost cause is insanity given the absurdly small number of voted that separated the Dems and the GOP. Yes it is heart breaking Gillum lost, but he still barely lost.

To get Florida and Ohio back, Democrats need a down home candidate that speaks Heartland, probably from either state.

But it will take even more voters to vote Democrat the next time around. I honestly don't know if people will be energized enough to go vote after being used to Trump and his criminal behavior by then.

[quote]But I keep remembering Russert with his blackboard stating "Florida, Florida, Florida." And that is in fact what that 2000 election came down to.

There were a number of other states that Gore could have won with. Even New Hampshire would have been enough.

The conventional wisdom is that Dems don't need FL and OH, but Republicans MUST carry them.

Nate Silver had a graph with the state-wide Congressional votes mapped onto the EC, and the D candidate would get to Obama in 2012 range. And the D was still above 270 even with FL and OH in the R column.

The Cuban vote really dents the potential of a strong Latin showing in Florida. Moreover, nonCuban Latin turnout seems to be lackluster, and Puerto Rican’s aren’t politically active nearly enough. Further, the state lacks the type of well-educated tech and creative class vote that made Virginia purple.

[quote]Would it be too much to ask for you to dash off the best path to the presidency EC-wise now that FL and Ohio are long shots?

Florida isn't a long shot and no amount of mindless repetition is going to make it so. Get a fucking grip.

[quote]But it will take even more voters to vote Democrat the next time around.

Yeah, fewer than 100,000 voters in three states. Seriously, what on earth are you talking about?

And that was with a sleepy and overconfident Democratic base.

If immigration is what made the difference in FL as someone said up thread then that is irony at the highest levels. Cubans have been allowed to just step foot on US soil and they are citizens. They have changed FL culture completely. Cubans need to wake up and realize these hate filled repugs hate them and see them as inferior in every way. But they see them as useful idiots to further their cause so they are tolerated.

[quote]No, just Ohio. And not even that, given that they just reelected a Democratic Senator.

Yes, Sherrod Brown was re-elected as Senator for Ohio, but he only won by 6 points.

He was expected to win by more than that.

So it does appear that Ohio is still leaning red at the moment.

Ohio more than leans red but it is not out of reach for the Dems. It will trend where the economy goes. If we have any kind of downturn or economic anxiety by 2020, it will very much be in reach of the Dems.

Despite FL, this midterm went so well for us. So much so it put Pres Bone Spurs in a horrible mood.

R394, how about maybe being able to win his own damn home state of Tennessee. Sigh.

Dave Wasserman update on the National Vote:

[quote]Dems' national lead in House votes now up to 7.7% (was 5.3% the day after the election). It could conceivably hit 9% when all votes are tallied.

Don’t give up any swing states, wimps! Obama took them both...twice. Hillary had high negatives. The next Dem will not. Be ‘effiin greedy and you just might win. Seriously, grow a pair

The reddening of FL and OH has been balanced by the blue-ing of other states such as NV, CO, and NH, and the purple-ing of TX and AZ over the past few election cycles. So Russert's old meme "FL and OH a must or bust" doesn't hold true for the Dems anymore. Lots of demographic changes in the past 18 years, with more to come by 2020.

r366, Gillum was too scary? No, Gillum was too dark for those old white racists in Florida; let's not pretend that Gillum's narrow loss was due to anything else.

Ack! Valadeo (R) added around 400 votes and his lead went up from 1,775 votes to 2,178 votes.

Come on Bakersfield and Kern county. Get those votes coming!! Kings County is pretty much keeping Valadeo in the lead while Kern County is heavily for Democrats.

District 21:

Fresno: 17,861 votes for Republicans ; 16,740 votes for Democrats.

Kern: 13,693 votes for Republicans; 20,155 votes for Democrats.

Kings: 17,977 votes for Republicans; 10,716 votes for Democrats.

Tulare: 1,644 votes for Republicans; 1,386 votes for Democrats.

Fucking Fresno, I hope the Dems get more votes from them. Kings county is jut the worst.

R399 You clearly know nothing about Florida and our relationship with Cubans. They are revered, yes even beloved, and the richest men in the state are the Fanjul brothers. They are also the top of the Florida social ladder. One of the main reasons Trump bought Mar a Lago and turned it into a private club was because the Fanjuls would not hear of him becoming a member of The Everglades Club or the even more exclusive Bath and Tennis.

Where on earth did you get the idea that Floridians looked down on Cubans?

NYT says Cisneros the Democrat won against Young Kim!

That leaves five uncalled.

I guess Kim was a bit arrogant, no?

Times calls CA 21 for the thug.

Florida and Ohio can turn purple and ultimately blue if the Democrats do a better job of registration and outreach in the deep red portion of each state. They don't need to turn red counties blue, just just need to peel off ten to twenty percent in red areas.

The biggest job the Democrats have to do is general population advertising outreach and education. Too much of the language of politics and too many issues have been allowed to be defined by the Conservative Republican machine, through talk radio, Christian radio and television, people like Newt Gingrich and Grover Norquist and Fox News and Media. This list of Republican/Conservative organizations is long and they interwine and coordinate like a spider's web. The fact that Democrats are still able to withstand such an onslaught is remarkable in itself.

Don't give up Ohio, don't give up Florida, or Georgia, or North Carolina. The issues will bring people over. The Democrats just need to present a coherent alternative vision that has broad appeal.

Excellent post r412. All of it. Stay the course and we'll see results. , stay relatively united and we'll see the results.

I think 412 is right. I also think the fading of a Democratic majority in Florida over the last years is because a lot of people like my in-laws, liberal Democratic teachers from Long Island who retired there, and used to turn the state blue,have either died out, or like my mother-in-law at age 96, are no longer capable of voting. There was a huge surge of more liberal voters when people like them retired there in the 80’s and 90’s and that has faded since. Demographics count for a lot.

r411 That was called several days ago.

All but one of the remaining undecided House races is leaning R, so it's not likely the Ds will get to 40. (Right now it's at 37 flipped, with one more leaning D.)

The Dems have almost two years to get their ass over to FL and Ohio and talk about the loss of Medicare, SS and Medicaid that is coming, not specifically mentioning Trump but it coming from the GOP in general, so that means we need to win any Senate seats that will be coming up in those states, if any and any Congressional seats. They need to go to the poorest neighborhoods and get those people to vote and to all the Latin people in FL, except the Cubans, they won't change. Mostly they need to go into the black neighborhoods and talk especially to black women, get them to all to vote, the poor, and the people of color. Pick Harris as VP no matter who runs for POTUS. I think she will be enough to get voters of color excited in both states. The Dems have to go back, over and over again, not just drop by once.

And for god's sake the Dems need to stay the fuck away from hob nobbing with Hollywood's elite. That really pisses people off.

They have to do the same with all states in the Midwest, New England and the South and don't even bother with NY and CA because they're going to win there anyway. I don't think they need to bother with the west, like Cowboy country, except for Texas and Texas they have to hit hard and often. Nevada too. They really need to talk lots of union in Nevada.

[quote]And for god's sake the Dems need to stay the fuck away from hob nobbing with Hollywood's elite. That really pisses people off.

Don't agree with everything said by r417 but this YES this. They need to cool it with the celeb hobnobbing etc. Sure use them for fundraising, absolutely - but stop courting their public endorsements. It's pissing even moderates and some Dems off.

R415, thanks. R407 made it seem as if it hadn't been called.

Wow! Dems won all of Orange County. Four seats. All previously GOP, I think.

Yes. All OC House seats were GOP, all flipped. CA 39, 45, 48, 49.

[quote]Times calls CA 21 for the thug.

District 21 was called the day of the election by 10k, but as votes keep getting counted Valadeo's lead has been shrinking everyday. Yesterday, Valadeo was leading by only 1,775 votes, but today he got a bust of 400 votes. Hopefully, Monday will bring more votes in favor of the Democrat.

Even Nunes' lead went down from 30k to 13.8k votes. God please, let there be more votes agains Nunes in those 2 million uncounted votes.

r417, hear, hear!

I wonder if Beto's national tour on Ellen, Bill Maher, etc. affected the outcome.

[quote] I don't think they need to bother with the west,

Fuck off you little bitch. The Dems have never paid attention to the West, it is now that they turn West because that's the future of the Dem party. It's the region where their base has grown the most. The Rustbelt better hurry up because once Texas turns purple, nobody will remember what's in between the North East and the Western United States.

The Dems will be relentlessly targeting Arizona, Texas, and Kansas for the next 2 years.

[quote]I wonder if Beto's national tour on Ellen, Bill Maher, etc. affected the outcome.

It only made it stronger, he got national attention which elevated his local status.

In Kansas here. It is not going anywhere close to purple any time soon. Unfortunately, it's a lost cause and will never go for a Democrat for president.

I have no idea why r425 mentioned Kansas. Very confused.

You are wrong dearest R427, Kansas now has a Democratic governor and elected more Dems than before. Watch and learn how Democrats Transform that state to purple by 2020 and 2022.

And Maryland and Massachusetts just voted for Republican governors but a Republican President still isn't going to carry them.

Local politics can be a very different beast from national politics, Kansas is a incredibly conservative state. There are actual swings states to worry about.

Dems came close to flipping a second Distrit in Kansas in order to make it 2 vs 2. With a Democratic governor in place, Dems will be in an even better position to flip that second District and do better in the Kansas legislature.

[quote]And Maryland and Massachusetts just voted for Republican governors

Charlie Baker in MA is anything but a Republican, more like a moderate Democrat in Repub clothing only. A RINO in every sense. The state is still as liberal and blue as it gets.

Yep that is the point r432, "local politics can be a very different beast from national politics"

Kansas elected some Dems this time because of the catastrophic Republican policies, not because the population is suddenly getting more liberal (or less deplorable). In this case people literally voted with their wallets in mind. The Repug governor put some policies (in taxes and other stuff) that had some ugly consequences.

Believe me, I would love it if Kansas had a chance to flip, but, R429, there is no chance. We've had multiple Democratic governors in the last 40 years. Heck, this is our third woman governor! Kathleen Sebelius was governor here. In fact, we've had five Democratic governors since the 60s. We've also had Democrats represent the second district. Dan Glickman used to represent the fourth district. Absolutely none of that means that Kansas is anywhere near going near voting for a Democrat for president. For the love of God, there are 812,009 registered Republicans, 532,009 Independents, and 457,493 Democrats. That is NOT a purple state.

Kansas going blue in a presidential election just isn't going to happen anytime soon. In 2006, Kansas elected 2 Democratic House reps, and re-elected a Democratic governor. Two years later in 2008, Barack Obama lost in Kansas by 15 points. It's great that Kansas will have a Dem governor, and it's worth fighting to make gains at the state level. But on a Presidential level, don't hold your breath.

Is it strange that in the year of blue flips in even the reddest states, Ohio and Florida went the other direction? Isn't it possible that there was, again, Russian hacking of those two big presidential states that Trump cannot afford to lose in 2020? It would have looked strange if the Democrats made gains there now and then they went all in again for Trump in 2020 so they had to make the Repugs win this year, too, so as not to be too obvious come 2020.

What I do find glorious is that the Koch Bros, made such a big deal that they started investing more money on the grassroot level of election campaigning and, apparently, that didn't immediately pan out.

I think it's comforting to know that more people sort of wake up and start to care where the US is heading and care about their political representation instead of voting against their own interests (in order to "stick it" to some group they are told to hate).

yeah, too bad the Cock bros has to use their fat tax cut to try and buy another election and ended up getting cunt punted anyway

Womp, womp!

Senator Bill Nelson has telephoned Governor Rick Scott to concede the Florida Senate race, according to New York Times reporter Patricia Mazzei: ‏

Ugh....

The Dems need to approach this next two years and hit all the possible "doable" states, yes that includes Kansas and Texas. Screw only targeting Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA. [bold]Do them all[/bold] in order to have many more paths in case plan A & B don't work out. Have a plan C & D !!!

North Carolina

Texas

Arizona

Wisconsin

PA

Michigan

Georgia

Florida

Montana, that is a state waiting to be purple if only Dems keep investing @ the grassroot level.

[quote]Montana, that is a state waiting to be purple if only Dems keep investing @ the grassroot level.

Montana will probably be difficult for the Dems to win in a Presidential election in the immediate future, but it is possible that the right Democrat could win it down the road. Bill Clinton won Montana once, and Obama came only 2 points behind McCain in 2008.

Despite being a 'red' state, it has a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Senator. It is not a red state in the same way as North Dakota, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, etc.

r402 Pres Bone Spurs couldn't win his. TN was trending hard red by that point.

I absolutely think Ohio and Florida were hacked in some way. These 2 states were tampered with in both 2000 and 2004 which cost the Dems the presidency. There is high fuckery going on with them and GA.

THE GEORGIA SECRETARY OF STATE ELECTION GOES TO RUNOFF ON DECEMBER 4TH!

GEORGIA NEEDS A DEMOCRAT IN THIS POSITION.

JOHN BARROW(D) MUST WIN. JIM CROW MUST DIE!

Florida is most definitely winnable in 2020. But it's going to take a nominee that energizes and mobilizes voters 18-40. That's really the missing piece in Florida. Forget about targeting Latinos, since they don't like to be singled out as a minority. They want to be considered part of the white majority. If we campaign on issues that interest young voters, then we automatically attract black and Latino voters as well.

Fuck Jim Crow.

Nate Silver says the Democratic turnout for the Midterms was enormous. About 60 Million Democratic votes.

That is almost as many votes as in a Presidential election year. Could bode well for Democratic turnout in 2020.

[quote]About 60 million people turned out to vote for Democrats for the House this year. That is a **crazy** number. (Republicans got 45m votes in the 2010 wave.)

[quote]And this was sort of missed. Why so many stories about Trump voters in truck stops and not so many about "the resistance"?

60 million voters and Democrats only picked up 36 seats.

45 million voters in 2010 and Republicans picked up 60+ seats.

Gerrymandering at its most visible.

538 projects the Democrats to win 39 seats by the time all the official counts are in:

To be fair that doesn't account for population changes r449. That is why the margin in percentage terms is the better metric to use.

But yes either way you get the same point. The Democrats enjoyed more support than the GOP did in 2010, but they walk away with fewer seats to show for it.

So close to 40

So what are the races still left? In the CNN page the Dems have 232 and the Repugs 200. Three races left.

GA7 NY22 NY27 TX23 UT4

5 houses races that haven't been called yet.

Anyone think we have a chance of keeping the House and winning the Senate in 2020? God I hope so. Even if heaven forbid the orange beast wins again if Democrats have everything else he will not be able to do shit.

Keeping the House is very likely, most of the Districts that flipped are in States that loathe Trump, like NJ and California. The Senate is more difficult.

Assuming that Dems can take the White House in 2020, they need +3 senate seats to have control.

Colorado is an easy target, Dems chances of flipping that are high. Outside of that you are looking at Maine, Iowa and North Carolina as the big targets.

But you probably need to flip all *4*, because Doug Jones is unlikely to keep his seat in Alabama.

It can happen, but it isn't an easy road.

What an amazing win. Almost 40 seats in this climate is crazy. Had there been no gerrymandering, it would have been double this easily.

The good news about 2020 in the Senate is that all of the Democratic seats, except for Doug Jones in Alabama, are pretty safe. So Democrats don't have to play defense; they can go on offense. As R457 stated, Colorado, Maine, Iowa, and NC will be top targets, but there are several others that may be competitive. Arizona, Montana, Georgia, and Kentucky could all be possibilities, depending on who runs.

Alabama is going to be hard to keep but not impossible. Jones is probably going to be running against the Keebler elf, who is tainted by being Trump’s AG

Texas might also be competitive if Beto O'Rourke goes for a second run. There's a shot with Arizona now that there's a Democratic Secretary of State. I'm dubious about Georgia unless the Democrat wins the SOS run-off.

Thank you, Harry Reid.

Kansas is gross.

Fingers crossed for a Dem win for Secretary of State in Georgia.

After all the bullshit that went down in Georgia, R464, I'd wager that the Democrats and some Repugs are pretty pissed off. Add that to the fact that the racist fuckers have been placated by their repugnant compatriot getting "elected" governor and I'd imagine the Democrat will win the runoff handily.

I overlooked Arizona had a senate seat up in 2020 r459. Yes, that will be another big target.

Keep changing, Texas.

2020 will all come down to the economy and the impact of the Mueller investigation. If we're in an economic slump, then he'll lose. No doubt about it. The only reason college-educated Republicans are still with him is because of the economy and the stock market. If that all goes away, many of them will drop him like a bad habit.

Cruz was a tough opponent because he is a high profile Republican. Circumstances will be very different with dinosaur John Cornyn (R) two years from now. Both Castros and O'Rourke are likely to give it a run and have a better chance at stealing the seat. For all the fuzz about Texas, the truth is that Democrats have not invested at a grassroot level in Texas. Let's remember that Democrats only spent 3 million dollars targeting the Latino vote while Republicans invested 70 millions targeting the Latino community. Ridiculous when Democrats were trying to attract Latino voters.

The new Democratic movement in Texas came up organically and perhaps that's a blessing in disguise because that assures that young Texan voters will remain politically invested.

If Texas ever goes Democratic, the Republicans will never win another presidential race. Now, that's a big ask, but still should be the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

I'm as feminist as they come but, at this point, I kind of hope Kavanaugh and the other fuckers overturn Roe v. Wade. The minute they do, Repugs start staying home, stop voting on only that one issue (although I'm sure they'll find some other racist, sexist, troglodyte issue to consume them...although I doubt it would be as powerfully motivating as abortion has been), Texas becomes blue, and the Repug party ends. And, as soon as the majority of straight women start to realize that they can't get rid of their accidents so easily anymore, maybe they'll also figure out which party makes sense to their lives.

R461 In the rest of the country, yes.

In Alabama, not so much.

Let's see what happens in the Mississippi runoff before we write anything off as impossible.

Virginia was the turning point for Democrats. It gave people a peak at what could be possible if they united their vote. Then, Alabama came, and now the mid-terms blew the doors wide open. There are many Republican Senate seats in which Democrats have a chance.

Colorado, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, and Maine are the big standouts.

R471 You make a good point.

I wonder if Murkowski ever considered switching parties? If the Dems get the majority and the Repugs get even more lunatic right than they are, she'd fit way better with us. If that happens, we could even get Alaska.

With the 2 Trillion dollar give away of the Trump Tax plan, and Democrats controlling the House, when, not if, the economy sinks into the toilet, Trump will not be able to pay for it with the Reagan Panacea of program cuts.

Reagan loaded up the government with debt and the Reagan Recession came shortly afterward.

Trump will not be reelected.

I predict that is Roe v. Wade does get overturned white college educated women will STILL vote Republican, and barely a smattering of 18-24 year olds who never vote will trickle in. Many women are happy to see it happen, and the ones who are horrified will just whine and text each other about it. They'll do everything EXCEPT VOTE!

R78, White college-educated women already vote Democratic and broke for Hillary. White college-educated men broke for Democrats at mid-terms. Youth vote was up as well.

Low-education white men are the core of Trump's base with a good chunk of low-education white women.

The key takeaway from the midterms is that Trump lost the GOP the suburbs--mostly because of health care.

R465 You don't really understand Ga politics do you?

The turnout for the runoff will be minimal. Blacks turned out with fervor for Abrams...they will not come close to those numbers for the Sec of State election run off.

Florida is dead to me.

Oh noes!! How will we ever survive??

Today: Molly Ball on Nancy Pelosi’s future and Paul Ryan’s failure

I love Molly Ball but calling Peloosi's opposition significant is a bit lame.

If it were significant, THERE WOULD BE ANOTHER CANDIDATE.

Miss Fudge had a meeting with Pelosi and came out with a very different attitude about the position.

All these green congress people need to STFU, reelect Pelosi and GET TO FUCKING WORK!

The episode at R483 is worth a couple listens. Most of this show's episodes are worth more than one listen.

The optimal (Electoral College vote yield) strategy might be a compromise between "safe" and "likely to energize new, young, and/or minority voters", e.g.,:

Caucasian male or female superstar for president, and non-Caucasian and/or female superstar for VP, or

Non-Caucasian male superstar for president and Caucasian male or female superstar for VP.

Where "superstar" means ... charismatic and likeable.

It's like achieving health care reform: the most likely to succeed, if you're insisting on a leftward direction, is through gradual change, keeping certain elements familiar while introducing the new in "acceptable" (comprehensible, digestible) increments. E.g., phased-in public option before phased-in single payer, before phased-in NHS.

Wrong thread - sorry.

It wasn't really a split decision. Dems outperformed almost everywhere.

Good idea.

As in NC.

GOP Legislatures Try To Curb Democratic Governors’ Power

It is still so bizarre that Joe Manchin and Jon Tester prevailed in their red states yet Bill Nelson fell in a tilt red state. It was a possibility some people talked about in the summer when Nelson was trailing in the polls but I never imagined it would be a realistic possibility.

Did the Blue Wave just skip over the peninsula and overcome the rest of the US? Florida is fucking weird man.

Nelson warned of Russian meddling. It is no surprise at all. Same in GA.

R492, are there any articles linking Nelson's loss to Russia?

Nate Silver:

About 60 million people turned out to vote for Democrats for the House this year. That is a **crazy** number. (Republicans got 45m votes in the 2010 wave.)

And this was sort of missed. Why so many stories about Trump voters in truck stops and not so many about "the resistance"?

[quote] Caucasian male or female superstar for president, and non-Caucasian and/or female superstar for VP, or Non-Caucasian male superstar for president and Caucasian male or female superstar for VP.

Beto fulfills the minority quota. He's practically Mexican.

It'll be fine.

The worst thing the Democratic party could do is to elect two white old guys from the Midwest. The optics would be terrible. If they put a white guy at the top of the ticket, it has to be a politician from the West coast.

Not to be a little bitch, but white guys from the West coast are what I would call "white adjacent."

Lets just pick the best candidate. We all know no matter who it is the bitching about them will be immense. Fuck quotas. Whoever comes out on top, support the fuck outta them.

If it's no one from the Southwest or West coast, the head of the ticket has to be from North Carolina or Michigan.

Beto is very white r495, he is Irish American. And yes he knows Spanish, but he speaks it like a gringo. His American accent is heavy.

r497, that is pretty stupid in a two party system.

[quote] And yes he knows Spanish, but he speaks it like a gringo

He's what people call a Whitexican. A white American raised around Mexican culture.

Desantis got around 44% of the Latino vote.

Horrible senator.

[quote]Desantis got around 44% of the Latino vote.

That's actually good for the Cuban community. They usually vote majority Republican.

OMG OMG! California D21 has added new votes from Kern County and now Valadeo(R) only leads by 968 votes.

Cubans are not the totality of the Florida Latin vote

[quote]Cubans are not the totality of the Florida Latin vote

They are the majority of the Latino vote in Florida.

From R489's link:

[quote]It started when Ocasio-Cortez tweeted Saturday night, “how is Columbus Day a holiday but Election Day not?”

[quote]The idea that Election Day should be a national holiday was proposed by independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

A two second Google search shows that this idea has been around for a while and was neither Sanders nor AOC's idea. So sick of the fawning press for these two.

There are now the same amount of Cuban and Puerto Rican eligible voters in Florida.

That Utah election is a nail biter. It had flipped sky blue after being pink for a couple of days.

Gosh MS is terrifying. Lynching. It happened in CA, too, however. The lynching with the most victims happened to Chinese immigrants in California.

Small announcement:

The **OFFICIAL** 2018 Midterms Elections Thread dropped after Part 9 and I picked it up and continued part 10.

Seeing as we are headed to 600 posts, I will continue this Midterms Thread until January, when for all practical purposes the fruition of the midterms will come to be.

Thank you all for your participation in the election process and remember that the TREASON threads are up to 60 and counting.

A great article about California voter security.

It's not that California is the only one that could afford it, the problem is that the other states have not cared enough to invest in their cyber security. 273 million dollars to overhaul the election system is relatively cheap for such a large state like California. Many of those red states could afford it if they stop subsidizing the rich and large companies.

Paper ballots are still a thing in California, especially with the popularity of mail-in ballots, it takes some of the risk off from possible cyber intrusion.

R513 is totally right: other states could do it as well, if they bothered.

[quote]other states could do it as well, if they bothered.

Exactly, plus the cost of cyber security would not be near as costly as what California payed. The Golden State is unique because of its large population size. It won't cost that much to update election cyber security in a state like Idaho, Montana, or Tennessee.

Psycho. And it'll make her more popular in Mississippi.

The one Republican that Walmart won't give to moving forward.

Not. Enough.

If we can only get 40 seats

R46 “there’s plenty of qualified candidates for Speaker of the House with longtime experience”

Yes, agreed R46, however I think the best candidate for the short term is Nancy. She is a well seasoned pro, with an impressive list of progressive accomplishments. Along with an ability to scare the shit out of Republicans.

Let Nancy take someone worthy under her wing, and then hand the gavel to that person in 2020.

Once again the left has allowed the right to frame how they feel about one of our own- Pelosi. She is extremely effective at her job. She isn't the best speaker (as in speeches) but she knows how to get shit done. The right always does this to our own and a lot of us fall right in line with hating that person. Notice they don't do this nearly as much to Schumer cuz he isn't that great at his job.

Today in "water is wet" news

They attack Pelosi because she's a woman. They go extra hard for women because that gets the male bigots all moist in their pants (to put some woman in her place). Liberal men are just unmanly socialist liberals who likely smoke pot and make out with guys and talk about "their feelings".

r523 WTF are you talking about? Conservative men are far from manly. They pose with their guns and big trucks but are the biggest snowflakes in the fucking world who cannot handle any criticism or debate without losing their shit. Then they go drink themselves silly.

What real chance does the Dem have in MS?

R522 it seems R516 beat you to it, but I have tried to tell people it will increase her vote share among men. I hope a miracle happens like what happens with Doug Jones, but it won't

She's trying to seduce Chris McDaniel's voters. She only needs like 40% of his voters and she will win. She's trying to combat their misogyny by appealing to their racism. I realized how weird that sounds, but it's clearly what she's doing . It's going to work. People see her as a victim in that Walmart situation. This is why framing Espy as a liberal corporatist like Hillary is effective. The Republican's know how to get their voters angry/concerned. Watch that video from the Mississippi Victory Fund.

R524 the truth is not meant to be dished out like an all you can eat buffet. You are supposed to give it in reasonable portions.

R525 it's actually winnable , but the Democrats here are lazy. I just saw Hayes Dent (R) campaign guy and Bobby Moak (D) campaign guy on WJTV preparing for the debate in a few minutes. The Dem are campaigning like Hillary did in 2016, so they are going to lose. You need the youth vote, but they keep sending stupid ass flyers in the mail. What Millennial uses snail mail?

A week from today I will vote for Espy, but I not optimistic.

R525

Well, a sane person would think that after the racist shit that R - Cindy Hyde Smith spewed out last week about lynchings, Espy would gain some ground, but then again we’re talking about Mississippi. Lynchings... Jesus

Dumpty pants planned two rallies before the November 27th election.

r524, and while doing that they think they are the manliest alpha males out there. Superior to anyone including black guys who look bigger and better than them.

[quote] Liberal men are just unmanly socialist liberals who likely smoke pot and make out with guys and talk about "their feelings".

R523, you are equating homosexuality with unmanliness you piece of shit.

There is nothing more manly than two guys fucking each other.

R526 Ooooh sorry for you.

Get Out Of There!

r529, did you hear that "whooooooosh!" sound while typing your precious little reply to r253? No? Figures.

Sorry, I meant r523 in my r531 comment.

R525, according to a private Republican poll, Hyde-Smith has a lead of only five points over Espy. She's an awful candidate.

Comments around R420 talk about Kansas and its potential at the presidential level.

It would require a prevailing Democrat to carry about 40 states.

This has to do with where states come in for either party for their percentage-points margins. The No. 1 best state for a Republican. The No. 1 best state for a Democrat. And on down.

If one wants a Democrat to win in 2020, flipping the presidency, and to carry Kansas, it would be pretty much along these lines (starting from 2016 Hillary Clinton).

21. Michigan

22. Pennsylvania

23. Wisconsin — Tipping Point

24. Florida

* Nebraska #02

25. North Carolina

26. Arizona

27. Georgia

* Maine #02

28. Texas

29. Ohio

30. Iowa

31. South Carolina

32. Alaska

33. Montana

34. Missouri

35. Indiana

36. Louisiana

37. Mississippi

38. Utah

39. Nebraska (statewide; 1st district)

40. Kansas

The ten Republicans would hold: * Nebraska #03; Wyoming; West Virginia; Oklahoma; Idaho; Arkansas; Alabama; North Dakota; Kentucky; Tennessee; and South Dakota.

Below map has 270toWin.com quirk in handling colors from Maine and Nebraska. So, that is why I went made a long list.

Mia Love lost. Washington Post.

Dem wins House seat in Utah

R535

And she went to the orientation last week thinking she won... lol

The balls on this one.

Mia Love = MIA

Unless he commits an act so outrageous that it makes all his previous outrageous acts look adorable, I am all but certain Florida is off the table.

I am still sulking and bitter about Nelson's inexplicable loss(I understand Gillum's) so I am feeling extra salty about my state. I know that some here will give me a big "Fuck You! Get a grip!" but if nothing else I am a realist. The 2018 election was the scariest indicator of where Florida is heading....well, at least Scott did not don a Confederate hat and praise the antebellum era as the best of times.

It is inexplicable there wasn't fuckery going on in FL and GA. Nelson said it. That shit was stolen.

Florida and Ohio were hacked this time. It wasn't for this election, though. They couldn't let the Dems win in those two states and then magically have those states go back to full Repug come 2020. They had to steal Florida and Ohio this time around because they are going to steal them in 2020.

No, r540. Ohio wasn't hacked. It's a shithole and sinking deeper into the shitter every election.

Most educated liberal folk are picking up stakes and heading to greener pastures. Cleveland alone has lost around 50K people since 2016.

The Rethugs here are digging in their heels. These stupid ducks just reelected gym Jordan even after they heard about him and the OSU wrestling team. Most of them completely ignored or forgot that story.

Give up on it. Concentrate on registering people to vote in Florida. We have a better chance if flipping it blue than we do this shithole.

R541, why did Sherrod Brown get re-elected if it's just all red now? I think he was polling too well to fuck with his numbers without it being obvious. There is no way the rest of the country went as blue as it did and those two big presidential states for Repugs were the only two to buck the trend. Sorry. Not buying it.

Sherrod has name recognition and a massive war chest. He ended up giving money to the ODP.

The idiot they ran against him was a no name broke ass loser.

I am thrilled beyond measure sherrod won. But don't think for a minute his win is reflective of the state. Incumbency counts for a lot.

Why haven't the states surrounding Ohio moved in a similar direction? The Ohio and Florida outcomes just do not make sense just like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (and even Florida considering the way the voting counts went down on election night) didn't make sense two years ago.

Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman: ‏ Dems' national lead in raw House votes - now 8.8 million - just broke the record for largest for either party in the history of midterm elections (previous record was 8.7 million set by Dems in 1974).

This is important. I assume most of them are dems.

So what is the current count for Dem House seat wins - 38, with 4 still undecided? Are any of the remaining seats looking good for Dems?

Which 4 are undecided?'

Utah barely passed its anti-gerrymandering law. They say that, because it narrowly passed, the legislature and governor won't necessarily eagerly implement it. They might bide their time, if they implement it at all.

39 seats

Uh oh, now they will try to put an anti gerrymandering proposition on the California ballot

So what’s going on with the remaining seats? Are we likely to pick up any of those?

R550, I'm actually OK with that. Everyone needs to set an example to establish over time that gerrymandering isn't OK, and that states that still practice it are backwards anomalies and worthy of scorn.

Agreed, no gerrymandering anywhere. In this day and age, there should be an acceptable process based on computer programming that can start in the upper left corner of every single state and determine the most concise way to attribute state population in to congressional districts. Neither party should gerrymander. Neither party should suppress voting. Both parties should secure voting processes.

That's unfair, r553! There are more democrats than republicans! We should have electoral colleges for every office!

But early numbers show that Puerto Ricans actually lagged other Hispanic groups in voting, and some groups are pointing to mainland politicians’ lack of investment in and understanding of Florida’s Puerto Rican community as a factor.. “You can’t just rely on community groups. … the [Democratic] Party can’t just sit back and let the groups do it,” said Federico De Jesús, a Democratic consultant who was Hispanic communications director for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign in 2008.

The full picture of Puerto Rican turnout in the 2018 midterms won’t be known until more data is available. But Daniel Smith, a University of Florida professor who chairs the Department of Political Science, said the early figures show Puerto Rican turnout trailed other Hispanic groups.

“I was actually quite shocked at how low the turnout was before Election Day,” said Smith, who tracked voter registration data by place of birth through December 2017.

Analyzing both absentee and in-person early voters, Smith said about 44 percent of the 350,000 Cuban-born voters registered in Florida voted early. Among registered Haitian-born voters, 45 percent cast an early ballot, according to Smith’s data.

Only about 27 percent of Puerto Rican voters cast ballots early, Smith said.

Mail ballots promised to make Florida elections easier. They only made it worse. Overall, 30.4 percent of the 2.3 million Hispanics registered to vote in Florida cast early or absentee ballots, according to Smith’s data. By comparison, 40.4 percent of the 8.9 million white voters and 38.3 percent of the 1.9 million African American voters turned out before Election Day.

[quote] there should be an acceptable process based on computer programming that can start in the upper left corner of every single state and determine the most concise way to attribute state population in to congressional districts.

We'll have a proposal for just such a computer program ready by close of business today.

MSNBC showed an interesting breakdown of voters and apparently the 18-25 vote was actually down like 5 points while the 65 and over vote was up.

Which means you had typical GOP voters breaking for Democrats in large numbers.

Really good news.

If we ever get both House and Senate - they need to give Wash DC real representation. Senators, 1 HofR Rep and some electoral votes.

R558, If they ever want to change the number on the SCOTUS they would have to add DC and PR.

4 extra Democratic senators.

Salty Floridian here: the data up thread gins up with my own observations. We all know and accept that Cuban born Cubans consider themselves to be as white as Mayflower passengers, and they will never leave the R party(they will eventually die, but not before passing their values down to another 2 generations of American born Cubans.) And the big surprise to many is that Haitians are voting in high numbers with great vigor. I attribute this to the fact that all of them are so thrilled to be here(I have 2 working in my house) that they want to be all USA! USA! as much as possible. I tried to use my influence to persuade them to vote Dem, but they associate the Dem label with the Clintons who fucked over Haiti, therefore they want nothing to do with other Dems. Of course I might have the only 2 Haitians in FL who dislike the Clintons, so my observation is strictly anecdotal. I will say this: Haitians seem to have a peculiar bent towards what most of us would call R values--they look down on AAs who aren't working and struggling to support their families. Each of my ladies have TWO jobs, so you might imagine how they feel about anyone who is physically well but not working, Jamaicans are rather like that as well.

Sometimes I feel like the limousine liberal archetype as I lecture Clothilde and Georgina about the virtues of liberalism while the two struggling emigres clap back at me about all the MAGA crap.

But I will continue to fight the good fight I doubt that my Bill Nelson saltiness will dissipate before the day that horrible ectomorph in a baseball cap is seated in DC. I have been invited to a holiday party which I know Bill will also be a guest, and I don't think I am ready to face him in person. I know I would start bawling like a baby, and that would upset him even more.

BRENDA FUCKING SNIPES MAY YOU ROT IN HELL FOR THIS! I HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR ILL GOTTEN GAINS WHILE THE REST OF FLORIDA SUFFERS.

Yeah for the Utah win!

There are a lot of immigrants who vote R and it is baffling in this day and age. The R's hate them and will always look down on them for not being white. They will always be looked on as inferior by the R's.

Electoral Vote's take on the late house results: Bye Bye Love,

It's all over in Utah, as Democrat Ben McAdams has been declared the winner in UT-04, sending Rep. Mia Love (R) into retirement after two terms. Donald Trump famously declared that Love's loss was all about him, and her failure to get on board with his program. He's probably right about the first part, not so much the second part. When a Democrat wins in a district where only 15% of the voters are registered Democrats, and in a state that has consistently held the President at arm's length, the message is probably not "we want someone more Trumpy." Love's defeat means there are no black Republican women remaining in Congress.

Meanwhile, the Republicans officially picked up a +1 as well, as Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23. Despite Hurd's party identification, he has been very critical of Trump, which was undoubtedly key to his success in the swingiest district in Texas, with a PVI of R+1. In particular, the two men do not see eye-to-eye on immigration, which is hardly surprising given that TX-23 is 70% Latino. Hurd becomes the first person since the 1990s to hold the district, one of the biggest in the country, for three straight terms. He will need to begin immediately preparing for 2020, as he will undoubtedly be at the top of the Democrats' target list once again.

And finally, Carolyn Bourdeaux has filed a formal request for a recount for the House race in GA-07, which is in suburban Atlanta. The official tally puts Rep. Rob Woodall (R-GA) ahead of her by 419 votes. However, since all in-person votes are cast on electronic voting machines, there is no way to recount the vast majority of the ballots. Only the absentee and provisional ballots will be recounted by hand. This is precisely the nightmare scenario that opponents of electronic voting machines say is undemocratic. There is no way to recount the votes in a close election conducted largely on voting machines that do not leave a paper trail. There probably won't be enough absentee and provisional ballots to make a difference, and if the voting machines made errors, there is no way to know.

GA-07 is the only House race everyone agrees is unresolved (though some still have CA-21 in the "uncalled" column). Assuming Bourdeaux does not prevail and Republican David Valadao holds on in CA-21, then it will be 234 Democrats in the House to 201 Republicans, meaning that the blue team picked up 39 seats. That is their biggest gain since the 1974 post-Watergate election (+48 seats) and is their third-biggest gain since World War II (they also gained 48 in

Electoral Vote's take on the late house results: Bye Bye Love

It's all over in Utah, as Democrat Ben McAdams has been declared the winner in UT-04, sending Rep. Mia Love (R) into retirement after two terms. Donald Trump famously declared that Love's loss was all about him, and her failure to get on board with his program. He's probably right about the first part, not so much the second part. When a Democrat wins in a district where only 15% of the voters are registered Democrats, and in a state that has consistently held the President at arm's length, the message is probably not "we want someone more Trumpy." Love's defeat means there are no black Republican women remaining in Congress.

Meanwhile, the Republicans officially picked up a +1 as well, as Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23. Despite Hurd's party identification, he has been very critical of Trump, which was undoubtedly key to his success in the swingiest district in Texas, with a PVI of R+1. In particular, the two men do not see eye-to-eye on immigration, which is hardly surprising given that TX-23 is 70% Latino. Hurd becomes the first person since the 1990s to hold the district, one of the biggest in the country, for three straight terms. He will need to begin immediately preparing for 2020, as he will undoubtedly be at the top of the Democrats' target list once again.

And finally, Carolyn Bourdeaux has filed a formal request for a recount for the House race in GA-07, which is in suburban Atlanta. The official tally puts Rep. Rob Woodall (R-GA) ahead of her by 419 votes. However, since all in-person votes are cast on electronic voting machines, there is no way to recount the vast majority of the ballots. Only the absentee and provisional ballots will be recounted by hand. This is precisely the nightmare scenario that opponents of electronic voting machines say is undemocratic. There is no way to recount the votes in a close election conducted largely on voting machines that do not leave a paper trail. There probably won't be enough absentee and provisional ballots to make a difference, and if the voting machines made errors, there is no way to know.

GA-07 is the only House race everyone agrees is unresolved (though some still have CA-21 in the "uncalled" column). Assuming Bourdeaux does not prevail and Republican David Valadao holds on in CA-21, then it will be 234 Democrats in the House to 201 Republicans, meaning that the blue team picked up 39 seats. That is their biggest gain since the 1974 post-Watergate election (+48 seats) and is their third-biggest gain since World War II (they also gained 48 in

Our gain would have been 80+ had the repugs not gerrymandered the hell out of most states.

R550, California passed an anti-gerrymandering law several years ago. It uses a nonpartisan commission. Ironically, the law was pushed by then-governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who was trying to get a more moderate legislature. The result was a Democratic supermajority.

The state really is that blue, though more moderate than many outsiders realize. Our senators and lots of our congressional reps are women, though every governor has been a white male, including the new one.

Ohio is a blend of West Virginia and Indiana. It’s very culturally conservative

almost 40 seats (with all the post-2010 gerrymandering the Repugs have done) is almost a blue tsunami.

Chris Hayes just said on his show (although I came in in the middle of it and didn't hear the whole thing) that the Democrats could end up gaining an even 40 seats when all the votes are finally counted.

Even with all the gerrymandering, that ain't too shabby.

Bourdeuex conceded

repugs don't learn or change they just learn to cheat better.

Ugh. Facebook money at work.

Sean Parker funded that woman who wore a Confederate hat and claimed that the pre-civil war era Mississippi was so great?

This confirms my darkest tin hat theory. I have always felt that more than a few of the bad actors behind the effort to make racial relations as bad as possible are not mouth breathing cretins who are barely educated and hate blacks because they see them as passing poor whites in the bottom of the barrel competition. I confess that I know nothing of Parker's political bent, but I assumed that like most of Silicon Valley he was a Progressive. I assumed that other white big wheels who are closet race war flamers donated funds to racist orgs did so in the guise of LCs and cover names which would not implicate them personally.

What I am surprised about is that he did not manage to cover his tracks so that his actions remained a secret.

Silicon Valley has a lot of bad apples. These fuckers get greedy and have huge issues. This is why we must get money out of politics.

Nerds can be as racist and bigoted as common rednecks. It's all about the resentment issues for not getting treated with the respect they (think they) deserved and now, payback, being the bullies picking on others.

r569, why are there ALWAYS debbie downers like you who just can't wait to rain on some one's parade?

You almost seem to relish it.

R574, I think those types take their shit out on women. Birth of incels and all that.

Oh yes. There are lots of woman-hating in those groups. These silicon valley billionaires probably treat women worse than most rednecks.

[quote] I assumed that like most of Silicon Valley he was a Progressive

Aren't the SV Nerds Libertarian?

r578 But of course. They can't be liberal. They have to walk the line so they get $$$$$$$.

Most of them are socially progressive with a libertarian streak--they tend to be arrogant and not real aware of nuances. Democrats win easily here now, but Silicon Valley districts did have a number of "reasonable" Republican congressional reps before the GOP went totally nuts and detached from reality--i.e. Bush II.

But there are a number of powerful conservatives--Peter Thiel's the most notorious, but there are others as well--Elon Musk, Meg Whitman and several others with tons of money whose names won't be familiar to you. Mercer's not a Silicon Valley guy, but he did make his money in tech and Cambridge Analytica, which he funded, of course, is plain old evil.

The weird thing to me is that a lot of them know that they're helping the world go to hell and their response is to buy luxury bunkers in, say, New Zealand, instead of trying to make the world a better place.

We ought to bomb the shit outta their bunkers. Not with anyone in them, of course.

2/3 of Florida Cubans voted for Desantis

In advance of the election, the prediction was for 40 House seats to switch parties, at most. I think we got 39. That’s a tremendous success!

The Senate was a little disappointing, but we also knew that would be difficult. In 2020, it’s the reverse scenario, where the Republicans are defending a lot of seats.

[quote]In 2020, it’s the reverse scenario, where the Republicans are defending a lot of seats.

I think the Russians when light on this election, only fucking with Florida and Ohio, because they have nice, big plans to really fuck with 2020.

R563 writes,

[quote]Meanwhile, the Republicans officially picked up a +1 as well, as Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones conceded to Rep. Will Hurd (R) in TX-23.

No. Texas #23 is a Republican hold. It was not a Republican pickup. So, that “+1” is incorrect.

Heidkampt is following me on Twitter. Don’t know why.

R575, I was on my phone and was just keeping the thread updated. You're reading too much in a neutral sentence. Yes, it's sad she lost but I didn't have time to couch it in disappointment for you at the time. Sorry. I'll try better in the future.

No need to apologize, that person had an unnecessary overreaction to your post.

He made the donation in an effort to defeat Mississippi state senator Chris McDaniel, Hyde-Smith’s controversial Republican opponent, during their primary race. And it worked—McDaniel, a man who had ties to the neo-Confederate movement, took money from figures connected to the KKK, and made numerous inflammatory comments about women and minorities, lost badly.

But the leftover funds are now being used to help Hyde-Smith in her runoff against her Democratic opponent, former congressman and Department of Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy.

... In a statement to The Daily Beast, a spokesperson for Parker tried to distance him from the senator. “Mr. Parker doesn’t know Cindy Hyde-Smith and finds her rhetoric reprehensible,” the spokesperson said. “His contribution from early this year was a continuation of the effort to defeat McDaniel.”

But Parker’s spokesman gave no indication that he planned to ask for a refund for any of his sizable contributions to the pro-Hyde-Smith group. “Mr. Parker’s connection to the Mississippi Victory Fund goes back to 2014 and is expressly tied to helping defeat Chris McDaniel,” the spokesman wrote. And his money remains the largest contribution this cycle to a group spending significant sums on Hyde-Smith’s behalf ahead of the November 27 runoff election.

...

I'm not 100% buying that explanation from Sean Parker's camp.

If two white supremacists are running against each other, why even bother seeing that one defeats the other? It sounds terribly facile.

R590, yes, and why isn't he giving to Espy to undo the contribution to the Nazi bitch?

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