**OFFICIAL** 2018 Midterms Elections Thread Part 9! THE AFTER PARTY CONTINUES!

In 2016, Democrats pointed to Nevada as the great success story of the election.

In 2018, Nevada has surpassed their prior success.

Nevada is the future of the Democratic party.

Dennis Hof, the self-styled "Trump from Pahrump," won.

Only problem for him... he died on October 16th.

Here is the most lurid backstory of this election:

I'm sho shad about Ryan Coshtello!

Isn't Nevada WONDERFUL in its diversity?

GA Governor's race may drag on till next week, reporter says maybe Tuesday.

I live in a small town in Nevada. Most of Nevada is still deep red, but the population centers of Las Vegas and Reno outnumber them. So overall Nevada is now blue. There is a small movement in the rural areas to "make Nevada red again." But I think it's a lost cause for them. Too many people (like me) left California due to the crowding, traffic and high cost of living there, and moved to Nevada for the open space and lower cost of living. So it's sort of a "blue overflow" from California into Nevada.

Nevada and Colorado are states where their latino population switched them from purple to blue.

SESSIONS COLLAPSE IS COMPLETE

Cheeto tweets Sessions out.

After losing his bench in a Democratic sweep the night before, Harris County Juvenile Court Judge Glenn Devlin released nearly all of the youthful defendants that appeared in front him on Wednesday morning, simply asking the kids whether they planned to kill anyone before letting them go.

"He was releasing everybody," said public defender Steven Halpert, who watched the string of surprising releases. "Apparently he was saying that's what the voters wanted."

[quote]He was releasing everybody," said public defender Steven Halpert, who watched the string of surprising releases. "Apparently he was saying that's what the voters wanted.

No asshole. The voters wanted you out.

Can anyone give some insight on what’s going on Georgia?

Well, after sleeping in this afternoon after a late night, I'm now checking in on what's happened overnight. :)

R9 that's ridiculous. I hope he gets brought up on charges for abrogating his duty. What a petulant child.

It turns out that Nate Cohn & Harry Enten were correct last night that Tester would eventually pull it out in Montana.

Tester has hung on to his Montana Seat by 1% and has been declared the winner:

Dems need to pay attention to the West Coast/Southwest and see that New Mexico, California,Nevada, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington are Democratic Trifecta states.

1) Arizona is now boxed between this blue Oasis and will keep moving closer to purple.

2) See how that blue wall can be used to spread to other Western states.

3) See how they can apply whatever is going on there and duplicated it in the upper Midwest.

[quote]Tester would eventually pull it out

Pics please.

Upper Midwest (except OH) made Dem gains last night. That's encouraging for 2020.

The other big change overnight is that Karen Handel (R) appears to have lost Georgia 6 to Lucy McBath (D).

McBath has won by almost 3,000 votes, and one percentage point, and is declaring victory now:

Harley Rouda (D) expanded his lead over Dana Rohrabacher (R) in California-48 to 2,682 votes with 100% of the precincts now apparently all in.

Rouda: 50.7% (91,750)

Rohrabacher 49.3% (89,068)

People are now waiting to see whether Rouda will officially declare victory, or whether Rohrabacher will concede.

Hey Poll Troll!

I read today that Nelson and Scott go into automatic recount now, but also that Gillum is going to unconcede because the lates count puts him within spitting distance of a recount as well. Can this be done?

R20, Gillum seems to be .6 behind DeSantis, so he may be just outside the automatic recount threshold.

We'll have to wait for more updates.

R20 One does not simply, YELL! at the Poll Troll.

We ask in a highly respectful and dignified manner.

Don't yell at him again :)… or you will be cut with a rusty box cutter.

DISCLAIMER for those who can't discern tone via text: I'm kidding.

"NEW in #NJ03 from Jan Hefler at the Burlington County courthouse: Totals that include Vote by Mail ballots increased Andy Kim's total by nearly 15K and Tom MacArthur's total by 10K, which would appear to swing total current results to Kim's favor."

That would be an another Dem pick up I didn't see coming r23.

Conceding is not a legally binding act or anything, R20. It's just being polite.

Yes, concessions can be retracted -- the most famous example being Al Gore retracting his concession to George Bush in November 2000.

Lol r18. You can tell the Republican in that photo - the pearls, flag pin, and whiteness.

R27, it appears Karen Handel isn't conceding yet, so we'll see how it plays out.

Wow.

Look at the statement defeated GOP Congressman Ryan Costello of Pennsylvania made this afternoon:

[quote]To deal w harassment & filth spewed at GOP MOC’s in tough seats every day for 2 yrs, bc of POTUS; to bite ur lip more times you’d care to; to disagree & separate from POTUS on principle & civility in ur campaign; to lose bc of POTUS & have him piss on u. Angers me to my core.

Boo hoo Ryan Costello- lay with dogs you get fleas. No sympathy.

[quote]To deal w harassment & filth spewed at GOP MOC’s in tough seats every day for 2 yrs, bc of POTUS

What is "MOC's" ?

R31, I think it stands for Members of Congress.

Costello wanted to have his own Miss Lindsey dramatic outburst.

Hi PollTroll 2018 👋🏻

First, thanks for all your insight and explanations throughout this and the previous 6 (?) threads! You’re a star! 🌟 😘

Curious if there’s been any polling you’ve seen on how tickets were split - i.e. voting for local reps D, but voting for senator or governor R?

I remember in college, we learned that voters tend to vote for local reps based purely on local issues, and will stick with them regardless of party. But for senate and governor, they tend to look for “the adult” and the more experienced. Also, Americans tend to think divided government works best. Is this old school thinking now? Any evidence this played out yesterday?

Thanks Poll Troll in advance!

I thought with MOC's he meant 'men of color' but had no idea why he was saying that and then the apostrophe threw me. Let me guess, he's not known for his brains. Shocking.

It still surprises me that the Dems won in places like South Carolina, Oklahoma and Staten Island but they couldn't break through in Florida which I would consider less unfriendly than some districts they managed to flip.

I definitely need to see a deep dive of the vote there.

Florida is the most corrupt. It's likely the vote is rigged the most there. It also has a lot of Russian immigrants and deplorables. Remember the GWB vs. Gore election?

Russian hacking, R36. Not sure why no one is willing to say it. They started hemming and hawing around it last night on MSNBC and basically left it at, "Oh well, guess people just split their tickets." No. No they didn't. Florida fucking cheated.

Costello's not wrong about Twitler and his fellow members of the Trumpican party. It's his misfortune to be a Republican when that party ate itself and became the Trumpican party.

Moc member of congress.

Will Abrams get a run off?

With almost all the votes now in for Montana, Sen. Jon Tester has expanded his lead to nearly 11,000 votes and about 2.5 percentage points.

read the tries to Costello's rant. Epic troll

Steve Sisolak, as governor, and Jacky Rosen, as U.S. senator, won their 2018 Democratic pickups in Nevada by especially flipping and carrying Washoe County (Reno), pretty much a bellether country for statewide outcomes in Nevada. In 2012, Republican Dean Heller won the U.S. Senate by carrying Washoe County while re-elected Democratic U.S. president Barack Obama also won that state and that county. It took a long time for the votes to come in in Nevada. The exit polls, particularly for the gender vote, revealed the likelihood of Democratic pickups for Sisolak and Rosen. But, their likewise pickups of Washoe County made their flippings of Nevada very clear.

Yes, and Rosen and Sisolak actually won their Nevada races by TWICE the margin that Jon Ralston predicted.

Rosen won by 5 points, and Sisolak won by 4 points.

Ralston had predicted that they would each win by 2 points.

Some of the polling was so......off. Heidi's loss was not unexpected. Donnelly and McCaskill as well as the FL races were looking good for a LOOOONG time and right up until election day. Then BAM, they lose huge. I'm pissed about that! Fucking cheaters.

Overall, a very good election for Dems. I'd rather be us than them today.

To me, it doesn't seem like CA came through. Did they? I keep seeing uncalled races and have no idea if they will swing our way or not.

VICE: The Biggest Assholes Who Lost the Midterms

R46, the Dems are picking up some Republican seats in California, although perhaps not as many as they had hoped.

Still a lot of counting to do in CA.

It does look like Dana Rohrabacher is going down.

WISCONSIN: Assembly Speaker Robin Vos says he is thinking of taking power away from Gov.-elect Tony Evers even before he is sworn in.

This would be done in a lame duck session sometime over the next 2 months.

They already tried that in Virginia (?) and it was overturned by the courts.

2018 Poll Troll,

Just so you know—Jon Ralston, who lied about the May 2016 Nevada Democrartic Caucus, is a corrupt piece of garbage. Please avoid referring to him.

Thank you!

Jon Ralston is the best source for understanding what is happening with Nevada politics r51, his track record speaks for itself.

The GOP in NC stripped their incoming Democratic governors powers, and yes thank god the courts overturned it r50.

Man Republicans are so fucking disgusting. They truly hate democracy and subvert it whenever possible.

Very glad Lizzy Fletcher won in her Houston district. She is great and had great commercials.

Texas races were the closest in forever. We had a sucky ass Dem Gov candidate. Never saw ONE commercial for her. If we had a good candidate at the top, who knows.

Beto within 3 and all other races within about 6% is good. Texas inching toward purple.

Imagine if Latinos actually bothered to vote, R54.

Katie Hill defeats republican Steve Knight in CA-25.

Sore loser Steve Knight concedes via voicemail!

r55 I think many latino MEN vote in higher numbers for repugs and often the women don't vote enough here in Tx. FL has the Cuban pop who have always been repug voters. Latino's, even the white ones, need to understand the repugs HATE them and consider them trash and lesser thans even if they are "friends" with them.

SORE loser face!!

Those farmers suffering from tariffs who voted for repugs senate candidates can fucking choke on those tariffs.

That's an impressive win for Katie Hill, R56.

That CA district was Republican for 20+ years.

So glad Lamont won in CT.

I am pissed at the liberal NE states electing repug Gov's. I know they are not anything like Pres Bone Spurs but my GAWD, vote in lock step at this crucial time. Fuck them even if they are moderate. We got thrown a fucking bone in KS but after horrific repug governance and a horrible repug candidate. VT, of all states, REALLY? And I am sick of MA being contrarian by electing repugs over and over to Gov.

Still waiting for final results in the race for MAINE - 02.

Jared Golden, a Democratic hottie, is facing off against incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin.

Close race will have to go to ranked-ballot tabulation.

Lucy McBath has declared victory in GA6, even though her opponent has yet to concede.

This is Newt Gingrich's old district, the one Ossoff couldn't manage to win.

Handel losing along with Walker-ing Dead, Russiabacher, Brat, Cuntstock among others is supa sweeeeeet!

Houston (Harris County) was true blue, even voting out a popular and very non-partisan Repug county judge, Ed Emmitt. I even liked him. I have no idea why he never switched parties. He is so non-partisan and nothing like any other repug around here.

Yes, the replies to Costello's self-pitying tweet are glorious. I hope he fucking reads them.

[quote]The GOP in NC stripped their incoming Democratic governors powers, and yes thank god the courts overturned it R50.

They got burned this year. They held their leads in the state legislature but they lost their super-majority, which means that they can no longer overturn the Democratic governor's veto. And their ballot measures to strip him of his authority all went down to defeat.

I had more hope in NC. How many state leg seats did the Dems gain?

Congressman Ryan Costello is melting down on CNN lol What a loser. It is what you deserve.

NC is very gerrymandered, going to be hard to make significant progress there until you redraw districts.

@abc7davidono -- 4:30 PM PST

This just in: LA County still needs to count one MILLION ballots. We have a number of close races that still hang in the balance.

[quote]Gillum is going to unconcede because the lates count puts him within spitting distance of a recount as well. Can this be done?

Of course. A concession speech is not an official document or process and it can be undone by simply saying that based on the new information available, you are going to withdraw your concession to let all of the votes be counted. It's happened multiple times before.

Hell, you don't even have to formally concede. Roy Moore never did in Alabama.

[quote]NC is very gerrymandered, going to be hard to make significant progress there until you redraw districts.

The same with a few other states, most notably Wisconsin, which is one of the reasons it's so important to have a Democratic governor overseeing the next redistricting.

[quote]the FL races were looking good for a LOOOONG time and right up until election day.

Actually, a couple of weeks earlier. The early voting results in Florida did not match the polls. Those watching the early voting were expecting a nailbiter, which is precisely what we got.

Yeah with both Florida and Arizona the early vote signified GOP strength and that it would tight.

California is always slow as hell r71, you never know what the votes are in California til like fuckin Thanksgiving.

I personally know 15 people who voted Nelson for senator and the R for governor in Fl. And I'm just one person.

It's not that uncommon.

Governor Sisolak kind of looks like a mob lawyer.

What was with all the pre-election hand-wringing over Kate Brown? There were so many articles about her being in trouble, but it wasn't even close.

[quote]I personally know 15 people who voted Nelson for senator and the R for governor in Fl. And I'm just one person.

It's interesting that Nelson ended up doing better than Gillum, because most polls had shown the opposite.

That could be because:

1) Nelson is better-known in Florida than Gillum

2) Bradley Effect/racism

r76 California is slow because they allow mail-in early voting for anyone, and you can mail your ballot up until election day.

'Nother flip. NM02 called for Xochitl Torres Small.

[quite]What was with all the pre-election hand-wringing over Kate Brown? There were so many articles about her being in trouble, but it wasn't even close.

Never underestimate the power of the Secret Lesbians!

^ Shit -- I'm high as hell and I fucked up the quote. DAMN YOU, SECRET LESBIANS

Democrat Kim declares victory in New Jersey 3rd, another where the opponent has not conceded yet though.

This is just kind Congressional nerd inside baseball, but the #RainbowWave has swept Mark Takano into a committee chairmainship. He'll be chair of the Veterans Affairs committee, since Tim Walz, the current ranking member, has another job lined up.

Decision Desk HQ:

[quote]One of the least-appreciated aspects of Beto O'Rourke's overperformance/Cruz's underperformance in TX-SEN last night: the entire GOP bench of judges was wiped off the map wholesale in Dallas and Houston. The legal topography of the state just changed overnight.

It makes me happy to think how upset Tester's victory made Trump. He tried so hard to get rid of him, convinced that his margin of victory in the state meant Tester was a goner.

Harry Enten reminding people of the big picture

[quote]To butcher a quote from Newt Gingrich after 1994, if this isn't a wave, I'd like to know what a wave is. [bold]This is this biggest net gain in the House for the Dems in the House since Watergate.[/bold]

Imagine what it would have looked like with 50% less gerrymandering.

Update from the Orange County Registrar of Voters:

Rouda (D) increases lead over Rohrabacher (R) to 3,602 votes:

The entire congressional delegation from New Mexico is now blue r82.

[quote] It still surprises me that the Dems won in places like South Carolina, Oklahoma and Staten Island but they couldn't break through in Florida which I would consider less unfriendly than some districts they managed to flip.

The Russians weren't paying attention to them.

Poll Troll can you post latest stats on Abrams and Gillum vote count? Yes, I’m super sleepy and lazy, I know I know! I REALLY would love to see one or both of them snap victory from the jaws of defeat.....

Voting-machine fuckery in Georgia

GOP Ryan Costello who lost, is pissed at Trump for naming names of the "losers". Trump saying they lost because they refused his help. Trump has no respect for anyone, even his own party, didn't they know that already?

Rachel had a pretty damning segment on all those who Pres Bone Spurs "helped" who got their asses kicked.

^^^ Sorry grammar Nazis, should that have been "whom"?

Yeah Trump constantly throwing his own team under the bus is a hallmark of his Presidency r96, no one can be surprised by that.

[quote] Rachel had a pretty damning segment on all those who Pres Bone Spurs "helped" who got their asses kicked.

Not sure where I saw this, but apparently some woman was tweeting at the Twitler all through the night each time one the candidates he endorsed lost their race. She included Cheatolini's endorsement and some very clever slam at the dotard.

Something like that will have an immediate transformative affect on the entire community and make differences in so many people's lives r87. People don't realize how much elections matter, even moreso in local races

Ok, so how is a pro gay Democrat winning Utah-4? Not that I’m complaining, but that’s not something I’d expect

Almost all votes now in for Montana.

Sen. Jon Tester has expanded his lead to over 50% of the vote.

Ahead now by about 16,000 votes.

Poll Troll, I admire your stamina. These updates are appreciated. Thank you.

Thanks.

I'm just kind of relaxing with the results tonight, and checking updates occasionally.

The stress of the big night is over. :)

I'm still savoring the victories from yesterday. Everyone should. It was a big day for Democrats.

Utah-4 is Salt Lake County, which is dem-friendlier territory than Utah as a whole r102. Obama won the district in 2008, and Clinton won it in 2016.

It is what made the Dems think they could flip it.

Florida's always been a clusterfuck. It's full of transients running from dubious histories elsewhere, old transplants from colder, whiter states who moved there to die, native younger Floridians trapped and desperate to get out, just trash trash trash. And they get super twisted around politics.

They are unreliable at the ballot box.

[quote]GOP Ryan Costello who lost

Ryan Costello wasn't even running, so he didn't lose.

New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada were just a revelation.

California guaranteed at least 42 Democratic seats in the House, first time they send over 40 Democrats to the House of Representatives.

Texas flipping 4 seats and a ton of state level gains for Democrats.

Kansas choosing a Dem governor and a seat.

Arizona already flipped a sit or two (I think) and Dems are still in the running for that Senate seat with 75% of the vote counted. C'mon Arizona, join your fellow Southwest states and come through for Democrats!!!

Brian Kemp's lead over Stacey Abrams narrows as votes continue to be counted

R111 imagine if he hadn't froze those new applications, or if cities didn't have malfunctioning equipment in addition to lack of actual machines to meet a high volume of voters.

Just damn! If anyone was robbed yesterday it was her.

Is This the first time Governor K Brown has been elected as openly bisexual?

NC’s legislature is no longer a Republican supermajority that can override Governor Cooper’s vetoes.

R74, the same thing happened in 2016. The early Florida vote showed Republicans were turning out more than Democrats. Democrats tried to explain it away, but it was pretty predictive.

Handel fucking concedes!

Ossoff had so much money and lost that district by 4 points last year, shows you how suburban women have continued to move away from the GOP.

The Scott/Nelson vote differential has narrowed, right now Scott leads Nelson by only 0.26 percent.

It's estimated that roughly 31% of 18-29 year olds cast votes in the 2018 midterms, compared to 21% in 2014. This is the highest midterm percentage since CIRCLE began tracking this voter behavior in 1994.

[quote] It's estimated that roughly 31% of 18-29 year olds cast votes in the 2018 midterms,

Thanks for the info and link, R120. Now maybe that will finally put an end to some posters constantly complaining that "millennials don't vote."

Nothing about millennial voting rates has.ever been different from youth voting rates in the past.

Not according to some DLers (trolls?), R122.^^ Although yes, you're correct.

Dear Poll Troll,

Thank you once again for your amazing work and insights. Elections just wouldn’t be the same without you.

Here's an interesting analysis of the election. Key takeaway:

[quote]The 2010 contest virtually erased the Democratic presence in small town and rural districts. The 2018 election severely diminished the GOP presence in major metropolitan areas from coast to coast.

This is why it's so important that Democrats take over as many statehouses as possible in 2020. When the district lines are redrawn after the 2020 Census, Republicans will do to these new urban/suburban Democratic strongholds what they did to Austin in 2010. Austin is the 11th largest city in the country with a highly educated population that's overwhelmingly Democratic. Travis County was almost 75% for Beto. But Austin and it's surrounding suburbs have been gerrymandered into 6 districts, only one of which is predominately Democratic. The other 5 take small pieces of Austin and lump them in with huge rural Republican areas stretching hundreds of miles away from Austin.

This will be the Republican plan after 2020 in states that they control. It's crucial that we maintain and increase our wins in the statehouses.

Oops. Forget to link the story.

That's a good article r126, really illustrates what has happened.

Brian Kemp has resigned as Georgia Secretary of State while the vote counting continues.

Thank you poll troll and all here for the lively discussion. I was tired all day yesterday but it was worth it.

Senate races:

AZ is still way too close to call. Only 75% of the ballots have been counted and it’s very close.

FL looks less close, but still, too many ballots are outstanding to draw conclusions. Count them!

Georgia was stolen the old fashioned way. The Sec. of State disenfranchised mostly Black people. Disgusting.

He resigned because he was about to be taken to court over it r128, he didn't want to have to deal with that publicity.

But he leaves behind an office full of minions.

We don't know the official count yet, but it looks like Dems will have flipped 37 or 38 seats when this is over.

Hmm, I can be reasonably happy with 37 or 38 House seats That’s pretty good. It’s on the upper level of predictions.

Wish we held the Senate to one loss, though.

Senate seats in AZ, FL, and one other (?) are still counting.

As far as I know, Arizona and Florida are the only ones that have not been officially called. Montana is still counting but Tester has been declared the winner.

Yeah the expectation is that CA10, CA39, CA45 might look R lean now, but that's because all those mail in votes haven't been counted and Dems could very easily run the table, they are expected to be strong blue votes.

And in ME2 the run off might favor the Dem.

I think if those question marks all fall in our favor and we win the ones we are leading, we are at D+39.

That's a blue wave.

Arizona GOP Sues to Stop Vote Count

Republicans filed a lawsuit Thursday to challenge the way some Arizona counties count mail-in ballots as election officials began to slowly tally more than 600,000 outstanding votes in the narrow U.S. Senate race — a task that could take days.

The lawsuit alleges that signature verification must stop when polls close, and seeks an injunction to stop the counting of such ballots that have been verified after then. It’s unclear how many of these votes still remain outstanding, but the suit singles out the state’s two biggest urban counties, the center of support for Sinema.

Who saw this day coming? We do indeed have things to celebrate!

Nate Cohn's prediction for the remaining California votes:

[quote]For what it's worth, I personally would bet on Democrats to dominate the remaining CA vote, given what our polls said about the late vote there, the voter file data on the early v. late VBM, and the fact that the GOP did terribly in well-educated Sun Belt CDs everywhere

Gillum has officially just narrowed the gap to within 0.5%!

He is now in the needed range, we are going to have a recount for Governor.

Link about FL recount.

Nate Silver just downgraded the Florida Senate outcome from likely R to leaning R I see.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty, it's possible that Nelson might end up keeping his seat.

The Dems will have better luck in 2020, from Wikipedia:

There will be elections to the United States Senate in 2020 for 34 Senate seats Additionally, there will be a special election in Arizona to fill the seat of John McCain. There are currently 21 Republicans and 12 Democrats whose seats will be up for election. Making the odds favor Dem pickups, I believe.

Since my thread never took off, I'll just place this info in here:

I present the latest information on state governments from the National Conference of State Legislatures, a non-partisan think tank that promotes good state government. Click the PDF just to the left of the map there. It will list all the seats post-election.

As of this afternoon, Republicans control 30 General Assemblies, Democrats 18 with the State of Minnesota the only one divided with a DFL House and a R Senate. There are now 21 R Trifectas (Governor, Senate, House/Assembly), 14 D Trifectas, 1 Undecided (GA) and 13 Divided Governments. Of those 13, 4 are R Governors with a Dem General Assembly, and 8 are D Governors with a R General Assembly/Court/Legislature etc. and 1 (MN) has what I call a bifecta, Governor and House are DFL, Senate is R.

Louisiana, Mississippi, Virginia, and New Jersey will elect their Legislatures a year from now. Those, along with the ones elected in 2020, will be the ones in place for redistricting. Many of the State Senates are 4 year institutions, so if they were elected last night, they are not up until 2022, so the cast is getting set now for 2020.

[quote] Ossoff had so much money and lost that district by 4 points last year, shows you how suburban women have continued to move away from the GOP.

There were rumors that the votes of a big Asian Community (who usually vote Dem) were cast out or lost. Maybe because the media wasn't so focused on this area, this didn't happen and the Russians didn't hack it.

[quote]BREAKING: The Florida Senate election has further narrowed. Bill Nelson now trails by only 17,333 or .21%. It is now in HAND recount territory. More ballots still being counted. I expect that margin to narrow further until recount.

Steve Kornacki: ‏ [quote]Nelson attorney @marceelias is suggesting there may be a machine error that prevented the Senate votes from being counted in parts of Broward:

Steve Kornacki:

[quote]Nelson attorney @marceelias is suggesting there may be a machine error that prevented the Senate votes from being counted in parts of Broward:

Dino Rossi (R) concedes Washington's 8th District race to Kim Schrier (D):

I presume Mike Espy doesn't have a chance in the runoff.

[quote]OMG. Looking at county-level undervote. Broward stands out for having 3.7% of its ballots left blank for #FLSEN but cast for #FLGOV. No other county comes close, and Palm/Dade had more votes for Senator. Either this is ballot design or machine error.

Ben McAdams (D) just saw his lead over Mia Love (R) grow by about 4,000 more votes in Salt Lake County:

The Secret Lesbians must be stopped from interfering in the Florida recount! I suggest placing a circle of salt around the entire building. But it must NOT be IODIZED, or the building may explode!

[quote]Nelson attorney @marceelias is suggesting there may be a machine error that prevented the Senate votes from being counted in parts of Broward:

WOW.

Per Chris Matthews on Hardball, Kyrsten Sinema has pulled ahead of Martha McSally in Arizona!

Holy shit yes, Sinema is now ahead.

Sinema: 914,243 — 48.91% McSally: 912,137 — 48.80%

Can you imagine if Sinema and Nelson somehow both win? Unlikely but not impossible.

Also Tester's final 3.1 margin of victory is somehow *bigger* than his last two wins. Even Machin's win margin narrowed a lot from his last election.

Tester has figured out some magic formula for appealing to his Trump friendly state.

So has Manchin

r157 It is Pres Bone Spur friendly but MT is Dem friendly. They have consistently elected Dem Gov's and Sen's. We must hang onto places like this. Once people get used to voting for one party it is hard to break that habit. Look at WV. They still elected a Dem Gov last year (then he switched) and have reelected Manchin.

It is why I'm frustrated with MA, VT and even CT. They are too willing to vote for a R for some offices. So they will never act like some states like ID or WY where a Dem doesn't really have a chance in hell.

According to Garrett Archer, an analyst for the Secretary of State's office, Maricopa County still has about 350,000 ballots outstanding.

Jon Tester's victory is all the more remarkable considering that he voted NO on the tax law, ACA repeal, Trump's immigration plan, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh.

Montana is a Trump+20 state.

I cannot believe Karen Handel lost!!! MSNBC had called that race for her on 11/6.

Yeah Tester is a real democrat r161, not a pretty conservative voter like Manchin. According to 538 he votes to the left of Bill Nelson even.

Handel losing is fucking SWEEEEEET! Vile person.

Tester is true to the party. In MT, there are enough like minded Dems and independents who respect he sticks to what he believes. I think Donnelly and McCaskill lost late because they started acting too much like Rep lite instead of Moderate Dems. Both said some stupid shit late in the game which could have suppressed their vote.

Anybody on Twitter? Can somebody clap at that cunt Meghan McCain that this definitely was a wave? She was gloating about how Rs did better in 2010. The vote them was only R+7. We're almost at D+9.

Tweet her. Do it. You know she'll read it and it will drive her fucking crazy.

While you're at it, throw in that Sinema just took the lead in AZ.

Fuck gerrymandering and fuck that cunt.

Fuck yeah!

Does this mean Gillum gets a recount, too?

Many Florida Latins are refugees from "Communist" Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. They tend to vote Republican.

Republicans in Arizona sue to stop ballot counting in all counties. The news just reported that Sinema is ahead by 9000 votes. Haha! 350,000 ballots in Maricopa county are uncounted and about half that in Pima County.

The 2010 Republican wave was R+7, right now the Dems are at D+6.9 according to the NYTimes, but that is expected to rise considerable since we haven't counted a lot of votes from California.

So yeah, right now the wave in actual votes Americans cast is basically the same as the redwave in 2010, when all is said and done it will probably be D +7.5.

I need Kornaki to break it down as to the chances for Nelson, Sinema and even Gillum.

[quote]Does this mean Gillum gets a recount, too?

If it stays under 0.5%, yes.

So Florida still has to count Broward, Palm Beach, and the military ballots. These total 10,000 ballots. This looks good for Democrats, right?

Yes the rule in Florida is under 0.25%, you get a manual (people doing it by hand) recount of the vote. Under 0.5% you get an automated recount.

Right now Nelson is under the former, and Gillum is under the latter.

Florida GOP seems nervous. The current governor of Florida is going to give a speech in an hour regarding the election

Military tend to break for Republicans, R172, so not a slam dunk either way.

[quote]I think Donnelly and McCaskill lost late because they started acting too much like Rep lite instead of Moderate Dems.

McCaskill has been ignoring her black constituency for years in the pursuit of white votes. Ignoring your base is usually a mistake. Her luck finally ran out.

If Sinema wins and the Dems end up with +38 or +39 House seats I'd like to see any motherfucker try to argue this wasn't a big blue wave.

Fuck Rick Scott! He a cunt!

Rick Scott is suing the election supervisors of Broward County and Palm Beach County

Counting everyone's vote is illegal democratic trickery!!!111!!!

what's he afraid of!? Getting his cadaverous ass kicked?

If Cuz Bill is somehow able to pull this out I will give up chocolate for the rest of this year.

[quote]According to Garrett Archer, an analyst for the Secretary of State's office, Maricopa County still has about 350,000 ballots outstanding.

Sinema's district is in Maricopa County. While there are Republican parts of it, if she's gotten 50%+1, she's got it.

Sounds like Scott's scared.

From Twitter:

“So Florida's sitting Governor and U.S. Senate candidate currently facing a mandatory recount just announced he was deploying state law enforcement officers to two supervisors of election offices in South Florida.”

We'll find out and make sure it's not stolen.

I have just turned on Fox to see Rick Scott's upcoming interview with Hannity concerning the Nelson recount request/ Hannity just announced that GASP Bill has hired the Clinton's lawyer(I'm sure they have many) to spearhead the investigation into the Broward mess.

Hannity also got in a dog whistle slam against the Broward elections chief who he said has been fucking things up within that county for a long time. I realize watching anything on Fox is taboo here, but I have to see Scott for myself. I want to see if he seems concerned.

Yes. He is VERY concerned. His margin has gone from 50K to 15K. He claims that Clinton Democratic lawyers have arrived to "steal the election."

What if the Clintons had all the power Republicans think they do, wouldn't Hillary be president now?

34k separates the FLA governors race, just 15 K for senate, and those numbers have been going down all day. BLUE WAVE.

Is there a thread about the protests tonight? I can’t find it.

More bad news for Republicans. They could lose up to 6 House seats in California

Eyeroll

[quote]Republican Rep. Karen Handel, who won that June 2017 special election to fill the open seat in the Atlanta suburbs and was running for her first full term this year, conceded Thursday morning to gun control activist Lucy McBath.

[quote]“After carefully reviewing all of the election results data, it is clear that I came up a bit short on Tuesday. Congratulations to Representative-Elect Lucy McBath and send her only good thoughts and much prayer for the journey that lies ahead for her,” Handel said in a message to supporters.

[quote]“In this country, no loss, no failure, is ever final nor is it the end. God has a plan for each and every one of us,” Handel said. “Sometimes, though, HIS plan and our plan are different. So, Steve and I will be put our faith in Him and trust that whatever lies ahead will be exactly what we need.”

Maybe HE just doesn't like you, Karen.

GOP has done the math. They're scared shitless about Florida and Arizona.

Nate Silver's final projection is for a 37-seat pickup in the House.

If Sinema wins and it ends up being 47/53, it WILL a pretty decent victory, specially considering that the map for the Dems was atrocious.

Picking up 37-39 house seats, flipping two senate seats from red to blue, winning 7 governorships, 4 attorney general positions, and flipping 323 state legislative seats is a wave is far more than a "pretty decent victory". That is a massive understatement.

"Florida" and "recount" should never be in the same sentence. I'm not ready for 2000 all over again.

I was refering to the Senate race, not the rest.

Harley RoudatDemocrat t98,259t51.2%

Dana Rohrabacher*tRepublican t93,503t48.8

-

Rouda 4,756 votes ahead

[quote]Is This the first time Governor K Brown has been elected as openly bisexual?

No, she's won several statewide elections already (including her previous governor's race) and everybody always knew she was bi.

Nah r196. The website says that because it is based on the actual vote data available.

The most recent comment from Silver himself was this

[quote]Overall, though, we've gone from what looked like what looked like about D +33 House and R +3-4 Senate late Tuesday night to what now could wind up more like D +36-40 House and R +1-2 Senate. Probably enough to merit a reassessment.

Keep reassessing Nate. Ugh.

What would you expect him to do when new data arrive?

I mean hate on Nate all you want, but the model for this election predicted D+39

It is quite possible we might hit that exactly, which would be pretty hilarious.

I don't know, R205. Maybe he just needs to take the back seat. And maybe someone else will come along and start a competitive agency that will do the same type of research he does.

And it needs to be stressed that this was all about probabilities, not about an absolute prediction. People keep getting that wrong about what 538 is doing.

This election result all the while the economy is booming speaks volumes. Obama handed Pres Bone Spurs a very healthy economy and he juiced it with huge tax cuts for the rich to the effect he wanted. This will likely lead to a huge recession soon as the deficit is out of control during great economic times.

How many moderate repugs/indies voted some R just because of the economy. Imagine if things would have been going just a little bit worse? This would have been a tsunami of epic proportions. He knew what he was doing by juicing the already great Obama economy to heat up right at this time. Still, it didn't save them from getting swept out to sea.

There are multiple individuals and groups who do what he does, R207. Nate just happens to be the best known.

There are some competing groups who do what Nate does r207.

I didn't know, R210 and R211. People refer to Silver by default.

The funny thing is Trump *refused* to make this election about the economy, other republicans like Paul Ryan begged him to talk about that, but he was convinced that the migrant caravan was the way to go.

Could this be true? Is this why there is so much deflection?

R213 It's honestly disgusting how the media went along with the caravan story and OF COURSE the election has come and gone and it hasn't been uttered by news stations since.

I don't think the economy was a winning issue for him. Everyone finally woke up and realized things were this good under Obama.

The caravan story WAS the only thing he could have gotten mileage from. Funny, the border states is where he did worst where they would be most affected. It is people in lily white northern states, mostly rural, who shit their pants thinking the Garcia's will show up in their summer lake homes while they were gone for the winter.

Of COURSE the migrant story is gone from the news. They are led around by the nose. Obama even said it would go away as soon as the election was over. THIS is what the Dems need to scream at the top of their lungs as well.

Spot on, R215.

the fucking republicans won't be happy until there is outright physical and violent civil war in this country.

Scott is obviously joining in now with Trump by setting a new conspiracy theory narrative. "Democrats committing fraud!"

No more like the repubs are trying to cheat AGAIN

I was bummed by Senate losses on Tuesday but overall Dem wins are impressive. I am very impressed by Dem newcomers to Congress. Give Tom Perez an A for recruiting great candidates.

I just heard Max Rose the new Dem Congressman from Staten Island on MSNBC. A real winner. Florida is always a mess. Always.

I wish the media would start to highlight the Mississippi runoff Senate race. Maybe there are some more Democratic voters they could energize there.

HARDLY Any coverage of it and the runoff is Nov 27

One of the powers of the presidency is the bully pulpit r215, when you speak about something it becomes news, because you are the President.

A bullshitter like Trump is great at abusing that.

Well, R221, he has the vocabulary skills of a third-grader but he definitely has the bully part down.

r221 He does but the media covered it the way he wanted it covered. And they didn't need to cover all his rallies where he said the same thing. They didn't need to cover the caravan as much as they did.

We did indeed have a blue wave!

Debbie Downer Rachel Maddow the night before the election didn't help matters.

We deserved a bigger celebration election night and didn't know it!

Key #FloridaRecount Dates:

11/10: Unofficial Results Due 12 PM. Machine Recounts (3!) Start

11/15: Machine Recounts Due 3 PM Hand Recounts Ordered on .25 & under margins

11/16: Military/Overseas Counted (marked 11/6)

11/18: Hand Recount Due at 12 PM

11/20: Results Certified

r222 That is a huge insult to 3rd graders across the land, my friend.

Yes, election night was anti-climactic. Things looked so much better the next day and now even better today. We did good. The trolls seemed to have gotten quiet (or I blocked them all).

Dave Wasserman:

[quote]Newest #CA48 count: Harley Rouda (D) expands lead over Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) from 1.4% to 2.4%. Thinking Rohrabacher's probably done.

[quote]Debbie Downer Rachel Maddow the night before the election didn't help matters.

Awww, but Rachel Maddow was so giddy with excitement when Democrats started winning on Tue.

Bye bye, Dana! The West and Kansas gave me the most hope for common decency being viewed as actually a winning factor. And I don’t think anyone will miss Scott Walker and his anti education agenda. It wasn’t a blue wave but we will be in a better place than we currently are 🇺🇸

New Jersey acted like a rock star State this election.

r229 It is absolutely a blue wave. The fact the Senate may only be a net gain of 1 with a brutal map for Dems, a huge gain in the House with brutal gerrymandering.......I could go on. This was a rebuke in every way to Pres Bone Spurs.

I was worried about Menendez prior the election as the polls were saying his race was tightening

These election results really show just how fucked up Ohio is. Democrats can pick up seats in places like SC, GA, TX, OK, KS, and UT ... but not in Ohio, which so gerrymandered that Republicans still hold 12 out 16 House seats. And with Republicans winning all of the statewide offices, that seems highly unlikely to change.

It is looking more and more to be the blue wave as predicted: +28 to +30 seats for Dems in the House, perhaps a net loss of only 1 or 2 Senate seats, which was perfectly in line with what was predicted. Lots of governorships picked up, state legislatures.

A very good midterm election for Dems all around.

They did better in the House than that r234. 30 seats have already been officially called, and that number is only going to go higher.

Brown won Senate in Ohio so they at least did that right.

Meanwhile, I have never been so jolted as when I read that RBG was in the hospital. I think my life flashed before my eyes.

that burns my fucking biscuits, r233. We had a yuuuuge turnout across the board.

We passed an amendment to end gerrymandering at the state level in 2016 and to end it at the federal level in 2018 but those maps haven't yet been redrawn.

If you look at the voting map, a great deal of it is barely blue. We need it to be deep blue to shove those idiot rural bible beaters into the 20th century before they drag us into the 17th.

R233 Ohio has gotten significantly redder. One of the weird things about the 2012 election is that Clinton did better in states like NC, GA and AZ than Ohio which Trump won by a whopping 8 points. They picked up the governors mansions other Midwestern states like PA, WI, MI on Tuesday but they still couldn't win Ohio. Ohio has responded very well to Trump's brand.

I don't expect the 2020 candidate to make a real play for Ohio, it is going to be written off for now.

2016 election*

I agree with R238.

Ohio may be moving out of the Swing state category for the immediate future and more towards being a Red state, and that's possibly the case with Iowa, as well.

That's fine, we get CO, a bluer NV and NM, a growing purplish TX and truly purple FL. A few election cycles ago these states were blood red.

I hate fucking shithole Ohio.

What's new Mexico like? Is there green? I need to move some where blue with trees and grass. The lawn kind.

But Iowa swung back to us big time this cycle. Even Steve King's district was fairly close.

[quote]Ohio has responded very well to Trump's brand.

And it's that red commodification, coupled with Trump's branding in my home state of Florida, that has me convinced that Trump will win a second term. Yeah, I'm pleased we picked up the House but still. Damn. It isn't what I was hoping for.

I think each of us realizes now that he's getting another term.

I don't think I can continue to be as invested in all this as I have been. Don't get me wrong; I will ALWAYS vote even if I have to be driven to the polls on life-support; however, the banging on doors, working on campaigns, driving people to the polls, begging people to vote . . . the losses at the end of the night are too painful. Not just disappointing but painful. To know that people support Trump's malevolence is too upsetting.

I'm a federal defender. Essentially I'm a public defender but at the federal level and all of us federal defenders tend to be quite liberal as I thought my entire office was. But I've learned that two of my closest work buddies are actually Trump supporters. It's that kind of thing that really gets me. At 42, it's just become too upsetting. I know it's wrong on my part but I can't help but see these elections as a referendum on evil and when I see friends voting for the very evil that I've worked so hard against, it's awful.

I just can't shake the losses in my state and Georgia. Beto I expected to lose but Gillum and Nelson???

Tester winning is MT, again in the west, had to bother Putin and Trump to no end. Trump campaigned four times in the state blasting Tester. Sen. Tester speaks and connects to a lot of white rural voters that most Dems cannot atm

[Quote]I think each of us realizes now that he's getting another term.

Democrats swept the states that gave Trump the win. They won in Wisconsiin, Michigan and Pennsylvia. If you are worried about 2020 that should be extremely promising.

The economy will not be a player in 2020 except negatively for Pres Bone Spurs. He juiced it for the mid-terms but our deficit is exploding out of control during great economic times which is a recipe for disaster. It is economic insanity and will not end well.

The only thing stopping this election from being a slaughter was the economy and it was still pretty brutal for R's.

[quote] I think each of us realizes now that he's getting another term.

No, it's just you.

Also, your claim was debunked on some other thread (it doesn't matter whether it was you or someone else - numbers do not support it).

R244, move out of Florida, it's affecting your brain and your thinking. I feel optimistic but I live in the West. I'm giddy that Nevada has turned bright blue, Colorado and possibly Arizona and Texas turning purple/blue.

No way is Trump going to win a 2nd term, mark my words.

Well, I hope and pray you guys are right, but a Democratic candidate is going to have a hard time getting to 270 without Florida and Ohio.

[quote] Well, I hope and pray you guys are right, but a Democratic candidate is going to have a hard time getting to 270 without Florida and Ohio.

Again, this was debunked on another thread. I can try to find the post, but let's just say that you are WRONG.

Personally, I would ask you to curb your pessimism. It's affecting other people. Unnecessarily.

[quote] Well, I hope and pray you guys are right, but a Democratic candidate is going to have a hard time getting to 270 without Florida and Ohio.

I was feeling sorry for you at first but now realize what a Debbie Downer you are.

Nevada is becoming bluer by the day. There’s a huge migration of former Californians to Southern Nevada, the largest population center, and it’s affecting the state’s culture and voting. It’s onlybgoing to increase as people are priced out of Californua. Practically every other person I meet is from California. There are significant communities of people that are from Hawaii, Detroit and Chicago, as well as other places. Those people retired to warmer climes or left for economic reasons. But Californians are swamping the state.

We also have a lot of politically active Democratic volunteers here.

Trump will not win again in 2020. Enough.

“It’s the economy stupid.” It always is...pocketbook, healthcare, salaries, etc...are the deciding factors in the swing states and districts. Stay focused!

He could r254, it is silly to pretend otherwise, but I feel better after the election. It showed that Dems have a clear path to electoral college victory waiting to be taken back. And yes, that it can be done without Ohio or Florida if need be.

R250 Democrats would need to hold what Hillary won in 2016, plus get PA, WI, and MI back to go over 270 EV; Ohio and Florida aren't necessary. Or they can bring other states into play, like AZ and NC. I'm not saying that's an easy task, but FL and OH aren't as crucial for Democrats to get to 270 as they are for Republicans.

I understand the pessimism; I live in Ohio. But there are ways for Democrats to win in 2020.

Jesus Z. Christ R244. Dry your fucking eyes crybaby.

Here is the thing, Trump has a base of support of about 41% of country. Trump and Trampanzees are just loud, they are taking over the country. It may seem that way and yes, there are a certain amount of silent Trump stans, but you can't let that get you down.

I think we Democrats need to accept the fact that as qualified and as perfect for job as she was, Hillary was a polarizing figure who thought she was going to cruise into job running against a moron like Trump. With a different candidate at the top of the ticket, one without so much baggage and a reenergized party, I think we have a good opportunity of taking not only the White House, but our country back from all this darkness.

Stop crying, put on your big boy pants, man up, and stop letting the bastards get you down. Start fighting and start thinking positively.

I love you r258.

I have to admit, I was pessimistic until my home state of SC picked up its first Democratic district in 40 years. I think anything’s possible now

Local media are losing their patience with Broward County elections supervisor:

"But, Dr. Snipes, it is now Thursday," Weinsier said. "We are still counting ballots in Broward County."

"We're counting five pages or six pages for each of the people who voted," Snipes said.

"But other counties have been able to do it," Weinsier said.

"But other counties didn't have 600,000 votes out there," Snipes shot back.

"Well, Miami-Dade did," Weinsier said.

[quote]Hillary was a polarizing figure who thought she was going to cruise into job running against a moron like Trump

Quit spewing Republican rhetoric R258. Hillary lost because of Russian intervention and collusion from the Republican party. 2016 stands alone because of the circumstance. To try to rationalized what the Republicans did is useless.

Also, at one point you have to come to the conclusion that misogyny is a real problem in America. You cannot explain that with polls. It just is the reality of American white men. Period.

Is the Broward county elections guy a Repug or Democrat? I don't trust any Repugs counting anything.

Democrats also are going to need to focus on election reform. This is some bullshit. Not only should it be easier to vote, there has to be a better way to process these ballot and get accurate and fast results.

No R262. I love her and I would vote for her again, but she is polarizing and she has baggage and she didn't campaign hard enough. And I'm not going to turn this into yet another thread about why Hillary lost. So let's move on.

Totally agree, R264. God knows it won’t get done before 2020, though. Will it?

[quote]No [R262]. I love her and I would vote for her again,

The election was stolen. The circumstances where designated to make any Democrat lose (gerrymandering, Citizens United, white men, Russia, other foreign actors, and a crooked contender).

The day you accept that. It's the day you'll see clear.

[quote]she didn't campaign hard enough.

what

a

crock

of

shit

[quote]And I'm not going to turn this into yet another thread about why Hillary lost. So let's move on.

You are the one who brought her up and purposely dumped on her. There was really no reason for you to bring her into this discussion. But yes, let's move on. (rolls eyes)

Focus on the future! If trump can win (yes, he had Russian help), so can most moderate Democrats in any and all of the states Obama won (except IN) plus possibly AZ, Omaha, NC and GA — reach high!

^^ Omaha a new State? LOL.

Yes, we had some shocking losses (Gillum) but we had way more huge fucking surprises. Kansas! Bye bye Russiabacher! And Scott Walker! And Karen Handel!

We have too much to be happy about to wallow in what we didn't take.

Here's the thing: Trump juiced the caravan to turn out everybody he could. Were it not for the caravan, our victory would have been even greater. How can we tell? In states where the GOP did well, exit polls of Trump approval were significantly higher than what regular polling has been showing. Florida showed something like 51% approval for Trump, which we know is a lot higher than the actual number.

And it was still barely enough in Florida. Wait until 2020.

Nebraska splits it's EC vote, r271. Obama won one of them in 2008.

[quote]I think each of us realizes now that he's getting another term.

Actually, the election makes it pretty damn clear that, absent some sort of game-changer, he won't be getting a second term. The majority of voters agreed that this election was a referendum on Trump. And that referendum was a pretty resounding "no."

[quote]“It’s the economy stupid.” It always is...pocketbook, healthcare, salaries, etc...are the deciding factors in the swing states and districts.

It wasn't this time. People hated Trump enough that they ignored the condition of the economy and voted against Republicans, anyway. 68% said that the national economy was in good shape and we still had a blue wave.

[quote]Well, I hope and pray you guys are right, but a Democratic candidate is going to have a hard time getting to 270 without Florida and Ohio.

Get a fucking grip and learn some math. There are paths to 270 that don't require Florida or Ohio. The states where Democrats won in this midterm election total over 300 electoral votes.

And don't forget that in Florida, we just added 1.5 million ex-con voters to the rolls, and those voters are more inclined to vote for a Democrat. The road to Florida just got harder for Republicans.

These four or so tweets by Hoarse Whisperer make a good point. I'd post it on the more apt current Treason thread but forgot to 'watch' it and don't know what it's called.

What are the Repugs going to do when the Hispanic vote in Texas wakes up and starts voting like they are in Nevada? The Repugs end the day that we take both California and Texas.

[quote]And it's that red commodification, coupled with Trump's branding in my home state of Florida, that has me convinced that Trump will win a second term.

[quote]I think each of us realizes now that he's getting another term.

If you look at some of the analysis being done by 538, after the way the Midwestern states voted in the Midterms, forecasters say Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College again in 2020 are much shakier.

They already are spooked R278. Hispanics are now the top voting minority in the election and for Democrats. They woke up in the Texas election and as a results Republicans fell up and down at the state level. If Texas is to become blue, it needs to become blue from the inside first in order to undo the gerrymandering.

Even though Beto lost, he accomplished the one most important thing-- waking up the minority, youth and displaced voters in Texas. That's quite a feat and he did it without the help of Super-Pacs. The man is a rockstar. He needs to be on the 2020 ticket.

I worry, though, R281, that those new voters, especially the young ones, will be disheartened because they still lost even after working hard and voting. Beto needs to keep them energized.

Dana Rohrabacher (R) is falling farther behind Harley Rouda (D) in Orange County, California.

Meanwhile, the lead that Walters (R) has over Porter (D) is shrinking.

Let's also remember that Texas shed 500k voters before the election and it probably played a part in the final result.

[quote]I worry, though, [R281], that those new voters, especially the young ones, will be disheartened because they still lost even after working hard and voting.

This is where Democrats and Beto should come in. They need to nurture this new found base and keep it growing for 2020 and beyond. There is no other way, Dems need to put in the work in order to instill on this new group of Democrats the responsibility of voting. The same needs to be done in Florida and Georgia. It's a long term project but one that is vital for the future of the Democratic party.

I don't worry about something that may or may not happen before 2020 and my non-worry cancels R283's worry.

Ehehe, if you watch the California races, all the Republican leads are shrinking across the board. I see another three or four seats falling in Southern California.

Yes, R286.

Nate Cohn & Harry Enten project that the majority of the remaining votes in California will be Democratic.

(Although they can't guarantee it).

It's too bad Campa-Najar couldn't win his race against Hunter. What happens if Hunter is take to jail, which it looks like he will. Will Gavin Newsom call for a special election or just elect someone in his place?

I think the Governor of California has to call a special election -- I don't think someone can be appointed to take his place.

And it's not surprising that Hunter won -- it's a very red district that has been Republican since the Reagan years and Hunter's father held it for a long time.

The Hunter family is well-entrenched in CA 50.

What I loved about this election is that the Dems finally seem to put "eyes on the prize" mantra to use. Without much fanfare the flip tht 6th (Georgia) was achieved.

ARIZONA (83% in)

Sinema t(D) 49.1% (932,870)

McSally t(R) 48.6% (923,260)

Wow. Thanks poll troll.

Blue wave

CNN's results for ARIZONA which I posted above showed the vote was 83% in.

But it appears that 99% of the vote is actually in according to NYT and other sites.

Sinema (D) leads McSally (R) by slightly under 10,000 votes.

1,484 out of 1,489 precincts reporting.

Looks like ARIZONA still has to count early voting & mail-in ballots, but it's looking better for Sinema so far.

In Ohio, GOP won the races for governor, secretary of state, auditor, treasurer.

They control the state house 63-36 and state senator 10-6 (w/1 outstanding they lead in ).

They control 12 of 16 seats in the House of Representatives.

And yet Sherrod Brown won by more than 6.

NBC News Exit Poll:

HOUSE CANDIDATE SUPPORT IN 2018

Black voters: 90% Democrat, 9% Republican

LGBT voters: 82% Democrat, 17% Republican

Hispanic voters: 69% Democrat, 29% Republican

18-29 year olds: 67% Democrat, 32% Republican

College graduates: 59% Democrat, 39% Republican

Frank Luntz, no fan of Obama, reports the following (can't argue with the #s):

House + Senate endorsement wins: #Midterms2018

• Trump: 21 (75 endorsements)

• Obama: 39 (74 endorsements)

[quote]LGBT voters: 82% Democrat, 17% Republican

Still not happy about this number at all. 17% is 17% too fucking high. Wake up gays.

After Trump’s election and the announcement that Chuck Schumer would lead the Democratic Resistance©, I predicted that Schumer’s infamous “Plan B” (pandering to upper-middle class suburban voters and disaffected Republicans with college degrees at the expense of blue collar voters) would result in the Democrats losing 5 senate seats. I confess I was wrong. They only lost four, unless, like me, you consider the retention of Robert Menendez and Joe Manchin a result even worse than a loss.

CounterPunch=Russia, Assange connections.

Nice. That idiotic op-ed at R300 missed (or misstated) pretty much everything about the 2018 elections. It's hard to be that clueless and that wrong.

Yeah I'm not sure why r300 even shared that. Democrats are -3 in the Senate if Sinema loses, if she ends up winning which is decently likely at this point they are only -2. Hell, it is even possible they will end this only -1 with Nelson which is even crazy.

If we gain AZ and FL we are still -2. The Repugs will get MS for a total of 52.

We are talking about the change in the number of seats r304..

Reuters....

Trump sending lawyers to Florida as Democrats dig in for recount battle

I understand that a lot of the outstanding votes in Maricopa are likely to be pro McSally

They will be if she has anything to say about it r307.

Sinema has so far been leading in the Maricopa count r206, we will see if that continues. There will be another big vote update later today.

R307, the projections I've seen show a lot of the remaining Maricopa votes will be for Sinema, although there are definitely red pockets there that will be for McSally.

[quote]And yet Sherrod Brown won by more than 6.

Yes, but that's not as a good a number for Brown as it should be.

Brown was leading by double digits in the polls a couple weeks ago, so the Ohio Senate vote was closer than expected.

Stabenow in Michigan didn't win by as much as expected, either.

However, Baldwin and Casey won their Senate seats in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by double digits.

Trump Suggests He Will Call For New Election in Arizona: ‘SIGNATURES DON’T MATCH’

He really is too stupid for his role, isn't he? He doesn't even recognize that the states run their own elections and that there is no provision for a "new election."

Harry Enten:

[quote]This would worry me if I was a GOPer. The president's approval rating among RV/LV. It has never gotten to 50%. It's been below the disapproval rating @ every pt except for 5 second honeymoon. The prez's party got his approval rating on Tuesday. Oh and this is with a good economy.

Harley Rouda (D) is now ahead of Dana Rohrabacher (R) in California-48 by nearly 5,000 votes.

ARIZONA Update:

Nate Silver has moved ARIZONA from Tossup to Lean Dem:

[quote]Arizona: Tossup --> Lean D. Sinema's ahead now, and the remaining vote doesn't look particularly good for McSally.

yeah! thanks, poll troll!

It's always nice to have you in the house!

Thanks, R317. :)

An analysis conducted in MAINE today of the Exit Polling data for the ranked-ballot voting indicates that Jared Golden (D) looks likely to move ahead of Bruce Poliquin (R) in MAINE-02.

Bangor Daily News predicts Jared Golden (D) will win:

Mississippi has a run off for senator November 27.

If Arizona Dem

If Florida Dem

If Mississippi Dem

I believe we are only -1 in senate

Sorry if posted already.

[quote]Nate Silver has moved ARIZONA from Tossup to Lean Dem:

Which is why Trump tweeted:

Just out — in Arizona, SIGNATURES DON’T MATCH. Electoral corruption - Call for a new Election? We must protect our Democracy!

I think we all want a new 2016 election. The Rs made their putin infested bed, they can lie in it.

Nate Silver moves MAINE-02 from Tossup to Lean Dem:

[quote]Moving ME-2 from Tossup to Lean D. Exit poll suggests that Golden (D) is likely to pick up a clear majority of 3rd-party votes when they're reallocated as a result of Maine's new instant runoff voting law, probably putting him ahead of Poliquin (R).

R320: IF McDaniel supporters are butthurt and view Hyde-Smith as a RINO and IF they stay home that day, Espy COULD squeak through. And yes it would then be 51-49....EXACTLY where we are now. So it'd be a wash for the GOfuckinP.

So how many House of Reps flips do we have now?

R325, it's estimated Dems will have a total pickup of between 37-40 seats.

But it will be several days before some of them are officially called.

One thing President Gore taught us, was to fight down to the last hanging chad.

Thanks R324.

Why do they keep talking about Florida "considering" a recount or the Democrats trying to "force a recount"? It's automatically triggered by law, correct? These fuckers just can't stop lying about everything.

Marc Caputo, Politico's Florida Bureau Chief, reports that the Florida Department of Law Enforcement has told Gov. Rick Scott that it has not found any allegations of voter fraud:

Isn't Scott still ahead? Imagine what the corpse will do if he falls behind.

If he falls behind, Nelson should quickly say, "You know, Rick, you're totally right about not having a recount!"

Poll Troll, it gets even better. Rick Scott never actually told them to investigate.

[quote]Less than 24 hours after Gov. Rick Scott called for the Florida Department of Law Enforcement to investigate “rampant fraud” in his U.S. Senate race, the department said that there are no voter fraud allegations to look into and that Scott made no formal request for an investigation.

[quote]“FDLE is working with the Department of State and we will investigate any allegations of criminal activity or fraud,” FDLE spokeswoman Gretl Plessinger told TPM. “This morning we spoke with the Department of State and they indicated that at this time they had no allegations of fraud.”

[quote]“So we offered our assistance in the event that any criminal allegations are identified,” Plessinger added.

...

[quote]In a fiery press conference outside the Governor’s Mansion, Scott blamed “unethical liberals” for swinging the election results in their favor and said he was asking FDLE to investigate the two elections officials.

[quote]But according to the FDLE’s Plessinger, Scott never actually issued a formal request.

[quote]“Under Florida law he does have the ability to direct us to do an investigation, but it’s in writing to our executive director or our commissioner and that has not been done yet,” Plessinger told TPM.

He can't ask for an investigation because they'll find all the fraud on the Repug side.

Harry Enten's thoughts on ARIZONA:

[quote]Tomorrow will tell us a lot more of where Arizona stands given the ballots to be counted, but I saw nothing today to knock me off the idea that Sinema is favored.

I'm confused why Enten tweeted that now when we are getting an updated vote count from AZ soon.

What are the odds Nelson pulls it out? Not high, right?

off*

Sinema is going to win. We're supposed to get a Maricopa vote dump in the next few minutes.

Yes, Arizona is supposed to update its vote count at 5 PM Arizona time, which is in a couple minutes.

I dunno, R336. Given Scott's panic, I would say that if all the votes are counted, Nelson is likely the winner. It remains to be seen whether all of the votes will be counted.

If Sinema pulls this off, it's very exciting. She is further left than she pretends to be but has brilliantly crafted herself as a moderate.

Just in -

Sinema adds 11,668 more votes to her lead. She's now up 21,185 votes.

Sinema just pulled father ahead of McSally in the new Arizona update.

Now ahead by 1% instead of just 0.5%.

Secretary of State website:

Nate Cohn on Arizona:

[quote]Hard to imagine a McSally comeback at this point, with Sinema now up a point

If Sinema pulls this off and Nelson pulls ahead,the GOP would have just a +1 net gain in the Senate. Amazing.

It'd actually be a no net gain for the GOP this cycle if Sinema and Nelson win if you include Doug Jones.

If the Green candidate didn't run, Sinema would be up even more.

This voting by mail sucks! In Florida, they are questioning signatures. If I vote in person, I don’t need to sign. It’s a mess.

R347, yes, the Green candidate in Arizona has nearly 50,000 votes right now.

If Arizona Senate goes Democrat, The Heiresses boobs will implode.

The heiress is fine! She sends her love!

[quote] yes, the Green candidate in Arizona has nearly 50,000 votes right now.

The Green Party is good for absolutely nothing. They need to stop trying to run for office, except maybe in deep, deeeeeeep blue districts.

If AZ had ranked choice voting there would be no issue with having a 3rd party candidate in the race

That’s true, too, R353. I wonder if we’ll find out that ultimately the US will need to switch to ranked choice voting in every election to get the third party idiots to SHUT THE FUCK UP and vote Democratic or just SHUT THE FUCK UP.

I can't imagine trying to get half the idiots in America to understand ranked voting. They can't even read a ballot where all they have to do is fill in a bubble.

The Suburbs — All Kinds Of Suburbs — Delivered The House To Democrats

So Sinema wins? 47/53 is a pretty great showing all things considered with THAT map.

THe Green Party is fixed by the Republicans to irritate the Democratic votes.

R357 47/53 is great for Democrats going into 2020.

I predicted a Dem pickup of 34 in the House and the Repubs to pick up 2 in the Senate. I 'm pretty on target so far.

You'll be short in the House, R360. It's going to be between 37 and 40, I believe.

Yes, 37 to 40 seats is the current estimate for Democrats in the House pickups.

Possibly an outside chance at 41-42 depending on how the final counts break.

Sinema presently leading by about 20,000 votes.

Wasn’t 40 the upper limit on the pre-vote predictions? In which case, the Dems did pretty well.

The full range was something like "80% chance that Democrats gain 21 to 59 seats," r364, so 40 was right in the center.

[quote] LGBT voters: 82% Democrat, 17% Republican, Hispanic voters: 69% Democrat, 29% Republican, 18-29 year olds: 67% Democrat, 32% Republican, College graduates: 59% Democrat, 39% Republican

All This numbers will be adjusted by another percent point in favor of Democrats as Southern California still has over 4 million votes to count. SoCal. area has the largest number of Hispanic votes, Gay votes, New young voters.

these*

Any gay who votes in this climate for a R is a self loathing closet case. That's the 100% truth!

If Trump trying to say the AZ count is flawed? Silly idiot.

Yeah that 17% R vote from LGBTQ voters is beyond stomach-churning.

Makes me fucking sick.

It's still fewer than historically, r370.

We have them in this board too.

TIME

Florida's Vote Counting Controversy Spells Trouble for 2020

Source: The Miami Herald

Broward’s elections supervisor accidentally mixed more than a dozen rejected ballots with nearly 200 valid ones, a circumstance that is unlikely to help Brenda Snipes push back against Republican allegations of incompetence.

The mistake — for which no one had a solution Friday night — was discovered after Snipes agreed to present 205 provisional ballots to the Broward County canvassing board for inspection. She had initially intended to handle the ballots administratively, but agreed to present them to the canvassing board after Republican attorneys objected.

“We have found no clear authority controlling the situation faced by the board,” said Broward County Attorney Andrew Meyers.

On Election Day, Broward County collected more than 600 provisional ballots. The vast majority were declared invalid by the county’s canvassing board judges for reasons ranging from registering to vote too late to previously voting to voting at the wrong precinct.

I know the counts are clearly going to continue, but will we get updates today? I know California is going to take into next week, but should Arizona finish soon?

The White House and GOP are angry with Martha McSally because she isn't pushing a Democratic conspiracy as the reason behind her falling behind Kyrsten Sinema in the Arizona Senate race.

A guy from Politico was excoriating this Brenda Snipes yesterday on MSNBC. They were also talking about a poor design of the ballot.

Even if McSally loses (as she is increasingly likely to do), she's just going get appointed to John McCain's old seat when Jon Kyl goes through with his already-announced resignation.

Harley Rouda has claimed victory.

It should be Cindy McCain

Here in Miami there is a cuban guy whose name is Alex Otaola, and is one of those flamboyant gays that put other gays in ridicule in front of society. I used to follow him until he openly declared himself republican. He admitted that he switched parties and now in his shows he is lashing out against democrats acussing them of corruption in broward county.he is showing a video where a group of poll workers are seen putting all the ballots in trucks to take it somewhere to help democrats win in broward and west palm beach.

Needless to say,I no longer watch his chanel and other cuban/hispanics gays should block him too.

R371 Incorrect sir!! Anyone who does not go along with the Democratic Party line on this board is a Russian troll.

Remember?

CNN just announced that Broward County will do a machine recount. Including governor and senate races.

They’re doing a live press conference right now.

Don't they have to do a hand-recount on the Senate results?

ME02 should be called this evening. They're just processing the change in the ranked voting. Most of the third-party candidates were leftist, so it bodes well from the Democrat.

Katie Porter is catching up to Mimi Walters in CA-45. Less than 2000 vote separation and Katie has managed to shrink Mimi's 3.5% lead to 1%.

R368 I understand your point, but none of the Republican gays I know are closeted. So that part is incorrect.

The Republican gays I knew have all, over the past three years, become “Independents.”

Gillum has officially withdrawn his concession.

[quote]I just heard Max Rose the new Dem Congressman from Staten Island on MSNBC.

Love him!

Republican gays are self-loathing and help Russia by voting R so they might as well be Russian trolls.

Machine recount in FL, results expected Thursday.

Any updates on Arizona?

Arizona, still dry.

One hour ago

The New York Times updated 10 minutes ago with this:

Kyrsten Sinema (D) 994,934t(49.3%)

Martha McSally (R) 976,204 (48.4%)

Angela Green (G) 47,075 (2.3%)

with 3 more precincts to report.

So at the moment Sinema is ahead by 18,700 votes.

Arizona is taking forever. They're comparing signatures for absentee ballots.

I asked my somewhat wealthy gay Republican friend, "Why are you a Republican? They don't even support gay marriage."

He said, "I'm just in it for the money. I don't care about any of that other stuff." All he cares about is getting his taxes cut.

[quote]Harley Rouda has claimed victory.

Which makes sense, since 538 gives Rouda about a 95% chance of beating Rohrabacher, based on the remaining votes.

Rohrabacher isn't conceding though. He's probably going to wait until all the absentee ballots are counted, which could take several more days.

ARIZONA Secretary of State Website:

Sinema (DEM) 995,093 (49.29%)

McSally (REP) 976,554 (48.37%)

****

Sinema leads by 18, 539. Slight decrease from yesterday, but still favored.

I'm looking forward to being able to say "Governor Gillum" in January!

I imagine Rohrabacher is keening and wondering why Vlad has forsaken him.

The Florida races aren't going to switch. Uncounted votes is one thing; having 15,000 miscounted votes is a bridge too far. If it was 1,000 or less, maybe.

Agreed, R402.

Recounts only change results once in a blue moon.

538 has some commentary on this.

Nelson has a small chance, but Gillum is too far behind.

Dave Wasserman:

[quote]The story developing as the full picture of Tuesday's results comes into focus is significantly more favorable to Dems than the narrative that emerged on Election Night.

r402 this is true but there are so many other reasons why Florida needs to recount. Recounting is the only way improve the efficiency of the elections offices and uncover corruption in the process.

I'm not saying it shouldn't happen, R405; it should. It's just that no one should get their hopes up that a miracle is going to happen and the two races will flip.

As Nate Silver has said, the Governor's race in Florida won't flip because Gillum is too far behind.

Nelson has a small shot at the Senate race results being re-counted in his favor.

Dave Wasserman on the Republican collapse in Orange County:

[quote]Two years after Trump became the first R to lose Orange County since 1936, House Dems are on track for a *total shutout* of the GOP in the OC.

There was a segment on, I believe, Ari's show where it showed the headlines in some major news outlets and they were all talking about the mixed results of the election, how the election wasn't a total repudiation of Trump, how it wasn't a huge victory for Democrats, etc. He called them out on that shit.

One of the things that effects Election Night coverage is geography -- something that ends up diminishing Democratic results on Election Night.

Because California comes in so late, and because it's so big and takes so long to count, the scale of the Democratic margins often aren't known for several days.

So many people on the East Coast have gone to bed before California's positive impact on Dem results becomes known.

If California was on the East Coast instead of the West Coast, the Election Night coverage would look different.

I think they should not be allowed to report any results until California polls close. It actually suppresses the vote in the West.

That's amazing because I grew up in Orange County in the 1960s and 1970s and it was a Republican stronghold then. Very conservative - John Birch Society and all that. My stepmother planted the rose bushes at the Nixon Library. Now the OC is Democratic. That's pretty telling.

Dems will take the Presidency in 2020.

Yes, R412.

Trump was the first Republican Presidential Nominee to lose Orange County since Franklin Roosevelt won it in his 1936 landslide.

And Trump's loss to Hillary in Orange County in 2016 may have helped foreshadow what is happening to the Republican Members of Congress in Orange County this week.

Reagan once boasted that Orange County was "where good Republicans go to die".

Well, Reagan would probably be surprised to see what's happening in Orange County today.

I worked at a polling place in California in 1996 (Clinton's re-election). Voters told me that Clinton had already been shown on TV giving his victory speech, before the polls closed in California. Some people were coming in to vote while the polls were still open (they came inaround 6:30 p.m.). An old lady who had just finished voting was leaving at the same time, and she blurted out, "It's already been decided!" to the voters just arriving. That's when I realized that Presidential candidates should say nothing until all the polls have closed nationwide.

Florida is not a recount. All the votes weren’t counted in the first place.

[quote]Curious if there’s been any polling you’ve seen on how tickets were split - i.e. voting for local reps D, but voting for senator or governor R?

R34, I didn't see your question earlier, so I'm replying now.

I don't have the exact statistics to give you at the moment, but compared to a few decades ago, far fewer people split their tickets.

In the past, a larger number of voters would split their tickets between parties.

However, in today's polarized voting environment, only a minority of voters do so.

The large majority of voters today vote straight ticket for one party.

*ARIZONA 5 PM UPDATE*

Sinema (D) expands lead over McSally (R) to 28, 688 votes.

Sinema now leads by 1.36%

** Sinema (DEM) 1,045,779 (49.51%)

McSally (REP) 1,017,091 (48.15%)

There are a lot of Asians in Orange County now. Especially rich Chinese. My brother is a structural engineer and a lot of his clients are Asians who have bought property in OC. A lot of Asian and Hispanic professionals who have money now have moved to OC.

FUCK THE ARIZONA GREEN PARTY!

The fact that people don't split their votes anymore makes it all the stranger that people voted for the progressive ballot initiatives in Florida but seemingly then voted for the most conservative candidates.

Reports from FL about the strange under-vote for the Senate race were mostly about poor design of ballots and / or scanners not capturing parts of the ballot.

They showed one long ballot with three columns (I think it was Broward Co) which had the Senate race question just below the voting instructions on the lower left, and it seemed very easy to miss or mix up with the instructions. Or the scanners may have failed to capture that part of the ballot accurately.

r408 CA 39 and 45 (both in Orange County) still show the Republican candidates in the lead. Is he predicting that those will eventually go to the Democrat?

Yes, R424.

I think Dave Wasserman is projecting that the Democrats will win CA39 & CA45 when the remaining California votes are counted.

Plus, Nate Silver also has those races Leaning Dem.

Given the level of fraud and voter suppression that was done right out in the open, given how close the results are, there is no doubt in my mind that Stacy Abrams won her election.

[quote]There are a lot of Asians in Orange County now. Especially rich Chinese. My brother is a structural engineer and a lot of his clients are Asians who have bought property in OC. A lot of Asian and Hispanic professionals who have money now have moved to OC.

What does this mean for OC politics?

I just realized that a lot of GenX women (~ 40-55) were elected this time around. Don't worry, we're always responsible and fix shit but we're also still part of the fast-paced modern world. You're in good hands.

[quote]I just realized that a lot of GenX women (~ 40-55) were elected this time around. Don't worry, we're always responsible and fix shit but we're also still part of the fast-paced modern world. You're in good hands.

Thank God. I thought the levels of power were going to skip right from the Boomers to the Millennials. Which, given that we were all about being shafted, was kind of apropos.

There are some accomplished older Millennial women, too. Ocasio-Cortez is the only one that seems like an idiotic SJW.

CA45 has been called for Harley Rouda.

Rohrabacher is free to go retire and live a quiet life in Moscow.

Sorry, that's CA48.

[quote] What does this mean for OC politics

Well, Asians and Hispanics who were born here, usually vote Democratic. I know that a lot of wealthy Chinese from China have bought a lot of property in OC.

But many of the elected Asians or candidates (see: CA 39) are Republicans.

I'm actually surprised Sinema is leading and is likely to win. She is much further left than she pretends to be. I thought the ads the GOP from her activist past would've sunk her. I can't believe she is probably going to flip this seat.

If Sinema wins but Nelson loses, that's net +2 for the GOP. Not terrible for the Dems.

[quote]CA45 has been called for Harley Rouda. Rohrabacher is free to go retire and live a quiet life in Moscow.

Paging Nelson Muntz!

So this is 36 or 37?

The current crop of incoming freshman Dems in the House is more than half women.

The incoming Reps have a single woman.

[quote]I just realized that a lot of GenX women (~ [bold]40-55[/bold]) were elected this time around.

????

GenXers are between ages 38-53 in 2018.

Yes, R439.

Dave Wasserman was writing earlier today about the fact that there are a large number of women Democrats coming into the House, but very few Republican women.

And because some of the incumbent women Republicans were defeated, the GOP Caucus will be even more white men than before.

[quote]And because some of the incumbent women Republicans were defeated, the GOP Caucus will be even more white men than before.

Mia Love is going to lose, isn't she?

Uh, R440, are you a little, er, special like Rain Man? I rounded.

Harry Enten says it looks very bad for McSally in ARIZONA:

[quote]Anyone want to argue the math is there for McSally. Obviously, count the votes... but idk how this works.

Harry Enten says it looks very bad for McSally in Arizona:

[quote]Anyone want to argue the math is there for McSally. Obviously, count the votes... but idk how this works.

Regarding the Governorships, a pickup of 7 is huge, specially considering that the Republican governors of Maryland, Mass, VT, and NH arent really the deplorale type.

I think it would be a simple and effective ad to run to show pictures of the entirety of the Repug Congressional delegation (all old white men) and then show the entirety of the Democratic delegation (diverse in every way) and then simply ask, "Which one of these looks like America?" or maybe just "Got America?".

Harry Enten on Arizona:

[quote]Arizona looks destined to elect an openly bisexual woman who doesn't (to my knowledge) have a religious affiliation to the US Senate. Seems like a historic moment?

Shhhh on the isexual-bay and the theist-aay! I don't think the Arizona noticed.

Nate Cohn agrees with Harry Enten that it's probably over for McSally in Arizona:

[quote]Sinema now up 1.5 points. Very hard to imagine a McSally comeback at this point.

You rounded nothing bitch @ R443. Just admit you were wrong about GenXers and move on.

Yup Arizona definitely elected a democrat for the Senate. Which makes me wonder how Garcia ended up losing the governorship by almost 400k. He either was very inept or something is fishy here. Either way, Arizona has turned a corner and with the right candidates, like Beto in Texas, Arizona could be electing Democratic governors very soon.

Enten is wrong about Sinema's religious affiliation. She's an ex-Mormon who describes herself as agnostic.

So sweet.

True

The heiress is gonna be thrilled with an agnostic bisexual female Democrat representing Arizona in the Senate.

Dave Wasserman is already calling Arizona for Sinema.

Yippee!

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report:

[quote]Rs had a huge structural advantage going into 2018. The fact that Ds may net 40 seats is a rout. Period. This argument that it’s not as bad as Obama’s 63 seat loss in 2010 is laughable

Arizona's changing..?

Arizona’s bisexual now.

Good that it may end up being 47/53 in the Senate. That means that in 2020 the Dems need to flip 5 seats (Alabama will be goner in 2020), to get a majority.

AZ is red-purple.

[quote]I think they should not be allowed to report any results until California polls close. It actually suppresses the vote in the West.

And that is precisely what Certain People want to happen. So expect them to keep doing it.

R397, your buddy is a typical rich Republican - once they reach a certain threshold of wealth, they simply lose in interest in anything but preserving it. The human costs of Rethug policies simply do not matter to them. It's always especially pathetic when the person in question is a minority of whichever kind - the Republicans have built the modern party on hatred of 'the other', but these sociopaths somehow think their money sets them above all that. They just can't bring themselves to believe that they'll be thrown under the bus or onto the cattle car just like every other minority. But they are only useful idiots for the Rethugs, and totally expendable when the need arises.

Hey, Rain Man at R451, the world would be better off without people like you in it. Take the hints that I'm sure every person you meet has been giving you your entire life and take your Asperger's based number obsession and shove it up your ass.

If Arizona goes blue, as Nevada apparently has, that will make California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado either blue or purple. The whole Southwest except Utah.

True.

I love how states go blue. It's fascinating.

I wanna move to a purple or red state. Start colonizing, turn it blue.

And r465 Utah is red but not Deplorable Red. They dislike Trump there nearly as much as anyone. The younger up-and-coming voter bloc in that state is also much more progressive than the generations before it, the younger Mormons in particular - while not openly liberal - have an intellectual openness to them lacking in their evangelical Christian counterparts. They are lovers of ethics and rules as well, the antics of the current Repuke crowd do not sit well with them.

Arizona is growing blue...slowly. Ohio needs a lot of help. Texas Dems need to register and vote. NC would help Dems. GA too. But again, none of these states are going to elect someone, particularly statewide, viewed as liberal. Putting pelosi and Schumer as their leaders are not the best visual. I think they know that, but don’t care

Putting Mitch McTurtle in charge of the Repubs is a horrible visual as well, esp if that party was trying to boost its membership in states like AZ, CA, NV or CO. But he's large and in charge anyways.

Folks will vote for local candidates that they feel in sync with, and who will help their local area (town, county, state). I don't think they see a vote for Stacey Abrams or for Beto as a vote for Pelosi per se.

Utah is changing.

[quote]I love how states go blue. It's fascinating.

It’s scary to watch proponents of a one party system. It’s supposed to be about issues and candidates.

R473, who's advocating one-party rule? Which blue state lacks Republican officials?

Precision of language.

Sinema is so much hotter than crusty McSally. That difference was probably good for a few thousand votes.

R465, Nevada went blue because half the state is from California. Southern Nevada is a lot of transplants from LA and the surrounding area and the SF Bay Area mostly, and I bet as time goes on more of the Reno area will be from SF too. Those are mostly people priced out of California real estate and they are liberals.

Arizona is different. It’s very conservative and redneck. My guess is the few liberals there are probably Californians and Las Vegans, who started moving out there to escape high real estate prices in California and rapidly increasing prices in Nevada due to the real estate boom, pre-crash of 2008-2009. Houses in Nevada doubled in price in less that ten years and people went to Arizona to escape that. Later the market crashed during the Great Recession and prices went down again, so that slowed down the migration.

[quote]Enten is wrong about Sinema's religious affiliation. She's an ex-Mormon who describes herself as agnostic

Enten said he doesn’t think she has any religious affiliation. Self-identifying as agnostic means she has no religious affiliation.

Trump barely won Arizona while he was running away with states like Ohio and Iowa. AZ will be a real battleground in 2020. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ohio, Iowa and maybe even Florida aren’t seriously contested.

The battleground map is shifting away from the Midwest (sans PA, WI and MI) and moving to Arizona, Georgia and Texas. The next Democratic President will win at least one or two of them.

Ohio is a shit hole red state now. Morphing into Missouri.

I'm looking to escape. I would love it if we were colonized by blue staters. I might actually stay and give a Fuck.

Arizona has a way to go. Ten years and put it into play. Go after the Obama states for the White House and house and senate everywhere else, minus the Deep South. But the candidates need to be charismatic and viable. Bernie has gotten no one elected outside the liberal bastions.

Regarding the ages of Generation X--from Wikipedia:

Generation X or Gen X is the demographic cohort following the baby boomers and preceding the Millennials. There are no precise dates for when Generation X starts or ends. Demographers and researchers typically use birth years ranging from the early-to-mid 1960s to the early 1980s

Douglas Coupland who wrote the novel *Generation X* which popularized the term was born in 1961 and was describing people in his age group. The term got moved around a bit because it was convenient to move the starting date later so as to start with the "diaper dip" of the mid-60s. Culturally, though, people like Obama (1961) are different than the people older than them. People born in the 60s don't remember the Kennedy assassination, weren't eligible for the draft, were too young to be hippies or protest Vietnam--big, big deals to peak baby-boomers. Old Gen Xers do remember Watergate and most remember some version of the 80s and Reagan.

Millennials are mostly the kids of Baby Boomers (and share their self-absorption and demographic heft, though they're different in various ways). Generation Z are the kids of Generation X--so fewer of them. Millennials remember 9/11. Generation Z doesn't--I think they're more affected by Trump's election and the mass of school shootings. Oh, and they're ethnically way more diverse than any group before them. They basically look like California. Expect they'll vote the same as the golden state as well.

Oh, it's the first full paragraph that's from Wikipedia. The rest is from me.

Western PA, Ohio, Indiana is the epicenter of Trump country. He is like a god there. Remember his message about NAFTA and the factories closing down-that especially resonates to the Midwest. I don't think a Democrat will stand a chance in Ohio for 2020.Not sure about Michigan. I think we can turn MI around

Forget Ohio. Florida is unreliable.

According to Nate Silver, to win in 2020, the 3 states the Dems should concentrate on are PA, Michigan and Wisconsin. The solidly Blue states total 217, add Nevada and Colorado = 232. Those 3 States above went to Trump but turned Blue last week and can put the Dems over the magical 270 number..

Did anyone know about the election in Mississippi? The race was close so they have a runoff election next month. The Dems may get another Senate seat if this guy, Mike Espy wins. I just donated to his campaign.

Does anyone here realize that due to Trump's tariffs on China, Ford is going to lay off ~70,000 workers? I'd love to hear these rust belt states pina for Dump in 2020.

^^^pine, not pina

Jackie Rosen's Twitter put out a compilation of clips of reporters talking about her victory. There was one that I assume is from the Vegas Fox affiliate, and the woman who was talking got a little choked up when she pointed out that Nevada now has two women in the Senate.

D'awww.

[quote]Nevada went blue because half the state is from California.

Nevada also has strong unions in Vegas, in its most populous county. The Culinary Union for example has a lot of members who are women and / or Latinos.

Schiff has endorsed Pelosi for Speaker. I know some of the incoming freshman have said they won't support her--Abigail Spanberger said so before and after the election--but I think she'll still make it. Does the vote require a simple or absolute majority?

R490, Wiki says

[quote]The 435 members of the House of Representatives elect a Speaker by majority rule at the beginning of each session of the United States Congress, who serves until the end of the Congress. Typically, the election is a formality, as the majority party's members vote as a bloc for their party's previously-chosen Speaker-designate (such as the speaker, majority leader, or minority leader from the previous term). Open elections are uncommon but have occurred.

On MSNBC they just discussed a bit the performance of Chuck and Nancy. One guy said, a lot of the noise is about Nancy but she actually did her job and won the House, and her win may still grow with the additional races to be decided. While Chuck has all but capitulated in the Senate and in negotiating with Trump even gave him his wall.

This guy commentator was all for, let's replace Chuck with someone who's willing to fight. About the House, he also said, I don't care that the Senate may not vote on the legislation -- I want to see the House pass a Dream Act by MLK Day, pass Voting Rights Act, pass Healthcare legislation, regardless of the Senate.

I just remember in 1997 (I think it was that year), a few of the Republicans openly voted for someone who wasn't Gingrich during the roll call at the opening of the session.

Also, I was kind of shocked to discover that Hastert was Speaker longer than Gingrich. In my memory, it seems like he was there forever.

[quote]About the House, he also said, I don't care that the Senate may not vote on the legislation -- I want to see the House pass a Dream Act by MLK Day, pass Voting Rights Act, pass Healthcare legislation, regardless of the Senate.

ENDA and a minimum wage increase, pls.

I hope that if Nancy emerges as the Dem Caucus candidate, the anti-Nancy Dems won't be so stupid as to sabotage her in the full House vote.

[quote]Western PA, Ohio, Indiana is the epicenter of Trump country. He is like a god there. Remember his message about NAFTA and the factories closing down-that especially resonates to the Midwest.

But do they get that NAFTA was a Republican bill? Yes, Clinton signed it, but it was what the Republicans wanted.

Republicans are only interested in corporate profits. They are not interested in bringing well-paying jobs back into the U.S.

Will Ohio voters ever get this?

We need to work harder on Utah. Seriously. Members are fleeing Mormonism. It’s a beautiful state and could be a liberal playpen like Colorado.

52% of Barack Obama’s Endorsed Candidates Won on Election Day Versus 28% of Donald Trump’s Candidates

Huck Chuck! I want to win

The next update from Arizona is due at 5 AZ time, or 7 EST.

I'm kind of thinking that the best case scenario for McSally at this point is to force a runoff.

Nate Silver posted a map with the statewide House votes (a gestalt of every district) mapped onto the Electoral College. It's Generic D-Trump 324 to 214.

If you even eliminate the states that were close (Iowa, Arizona, and Florida), the Democrat is still over the top. And there are four more states that are close--Georgia, North Carolina, Texas (!), and Montana. I think Georgia or NC would be within the realm of possibility.

R495 Ohio has gone to the dark side. Yes, Sherrod Brown just won re-election, but all the state offices remain red, both chambers of the state legislature have big R majorities, and gerrymandering has given the Rs 12 of 16 House seats. As for NAFTA, as you said, Clinton signed it, and gets most of the blame for its results.

Democrats in 2020 should really just ignore Ohio. Unless the economy has completely tanked by then (like in 2008), it's not going blue. The focus needs to be on getting PA, MI and WI back, and probably FL, and then expanding into NC, and AZ, and maybe GA.

[quote]Democrats in 2020 should really just ignore Ohio.

They shouldn't ignore / give up anything. That was the mistake in 2016, for which the whole country is now paying dearly.

Regardless of real chances to take OH in 2020, Dems should put in the work there. It will bear fruit later, or even in 2020 in other ways. We saw that Beto had coattails with down ballot races, even though he didn't win.

R502 very good point. We need to bring back Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy.

Any Arizona updates?

shithole Ohio here.

This hell hole is going more red. Educated types are fleeing because it has become so unfriendly to women, gays, lesbians and immigrants.

The only good thing is we took two supreme court seats here and got two more lower court judges that I know of elected. So the thugs can be challenged in court on a lot of their hateful bullshit.

It's not going to stop the deplorables from harassing and threatening people, however.

The end gerrymandering passed in May but I am not sure when the maps will be redrawn. I have heard they will be redone for 2020.

The only way the thugs can win here is to gerrymander and cheat. And a lot of uppity assholes who think they are "wealthy" vote rethug no matter what.

Oh, and they have convinced the deplorables that immigrants are taking their jobs. You know, the ones they won't do like picking fruit and vegetables. A lot of field are rotting because no one will do the work and they soy bean harvest is also sitting in the fields rotting because of the stupid tariffs.

But these retards think dump is the greatest because they can now publicly harass and threaten POC, women and immigrants without shame or fear. So they don't care they are going to end up on the streets homeless.

But they voted for it so Fuck them.

11:52 AM Counting continues: Arizona Election & #ArizonaSenate race: #Sinema leads by 30,310 votes. Link to #Arizona Secretary of State website: results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

#Arizona Senate Update:

(D) Kyrsten Sinema 1,049,522

(R) Martha McSally 1,019,212

#ArizonaElection

"If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be on the front row"- Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith says in Tupelo, MS after Colin Hutchinson, cattle rancher, praises her.

Hyde-Smith is in a runoff on Nov 27th against Mike Espy. (And will most likely win.)

Concerning the future direction of Utah, do you think Romney might play a role in that? Do you think he's going to be a thorn in Romney's side or turn into another Rubio who just pretends and says things but then goes full Trump when the shit actually hits the fan? It would be sweet irony if Romney helped turn Utah blue by helping take down Trump in 2020.

Cindy Hyde-Smith is a CUNT

Romney has already shown he will cave to Trump when he thinks it’s in his best interest. Trump let Romney grovel before him for the chance at an attorney general nomination, only to be humiliated in the end

R510, just to clarify, Romney grovelled for the Secretary of State position.

He already called Trump out on something. I don't think Romney took well to how he was treated by Trump when he made him look like a groveling fool. Romney has nothing to lose by fucking Trump over. The Mormons haven't bought into Trump's bullshit like the Evangelicals. I have some hope that Romney will act like a decent human and fuck Trump over.

[quote]He already called Trump out on something. I don't think Romney took well to how he was treated by Trump when he made him look like a groveling fool.

Cheeto is cunning. He may extend an olive branch to Romney and play to his weaknesses, and manage to co-opt him like he did with Miss Lindz, Little Marco, Lyin' Ted, etc.

If Romney wants something and Cheeto can give it to him, Romney will turn around in a DC minute.

No elected Republican in DC honestly stands up to Trump, I don't expect that to change.

The Republican Party is Trump's party, they have all essentially fallen in line.

Don't forget Romney's niece Ronna is the RNC chair. Surely they would always be on the same page...

Now that Mitch got to a position of power with a vote in the Senate -- depending on how the AZ and FL Senate seats shake out, Trump may want to get him on his side.

On one hand, Mitch doesn't fear primaries, he just got his state's vote so he's not in Flake's position. He doesn't have to court deplorable vote in UT (as it is now) -- so that makes Mitch a stronger potential anti-Trump vote.

Will certainly be interesting if he'll be neutralized by Trump or not. I'm sure he still entertains presidential ambitions.

^^ Mitch = MITT

[quote]"If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be on the front row"- Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith says in Tupelo, MS after Colin Hutchinson, cattle rancher, praises her. Hyde-Smith is in a runoff on Nov 27th against Mike Espy. (And will most likely win.)

I'm not sure I get that, R507. Context?

Mike Espy is black and Mississippi was once a hotbed of lynching, R518.

Wow. Thanks, R518.

I don't think being racist will damage someone to Mississippi voters...

Mississippi in a runoff is telling. R509 not a very large crowd.

Also Romney has 6 years ahead of him. If/when he runs again Trump won’t be running or already long gone. Romney has little to fear from Trump.

But Romney’s a coward anyway.

. I think if Trump gets into serious legal trouble he’ll lose Romney. We’ll see.

Romney is an spineless opportunist. New topic

Rick Scott suing to impound voting machines.

Whoa, R527. Coup.

R497 But you buried the lede. Bernie endorsed candidates did better than Trump and Obama endorsed candidates.

To me that is as disturbing as any stat I have read this week.

Since most of you are likely younger than I, I am wondering if you guys realize that Florida was a nice dependable shade of azure25 years ago when I first arrived on the peninsula of US oddities. Not a deep navy, but still, a definite blue. Bob Graham, St. Lawton Chiles(even Repubs voted for him) Bill Nelson and practically all of the judges in the state were Dems. I am from a family of Florida Cracker Dem politics so I know a bit about this subject.

I am telling you younger folks this, not to dampen your joy, but to warn you that the turning of red and purple states blue is not a forever thing, It's a good thing, but time and specific candidates can change a lot..

Scott I’ll win that one too as the course and judges are all republicans in Florida. I’ll never understand how politics have any role in being a judge. There’s a rule of law for everything. Judge accordingly.

Kyrsten Sinema expands her statewide vote total, now up over 30,000 votes.

It should have read: Scott will win that one too as the courts and judges are all republicans in Florida. I’ll never understand how politics have any role in being a judge. There’s a rule of law for everything. Judge accordingly.

Great news R532!

Hell, I remember when Texas elected its share of Democrats. A lot of the issue is gerrymandering--the Republicans went to town on using databases and computers to carve up districts so that they'd get the optimum number of seats. In Texas, they redistricted mid-decade to keep Democrats out of office. This happened in pretty much any state with multiple seats and Republican control.

It took a lot of Democratic turn-out to overcome the gerrymandering. It basically took near-landslide percentages to get a simple majority in Congress. Which is what makes the Democratic takeover of so many governorships so important.

It's not, for instance, really the case that Pennsylvania has turned a lot bluer than it was two years ago. It's more that Pennsylvania's gerrymandering was held illegal by its Supreme Court, so the state was more fairly redistricted and is back to its bluish self.

Re: Nevada--weird state. Mostly empty--really, really empty. Close to three-quarters of the votes are in Las Vegas, which is, yes, heavily unionized. Harry Reid got the unions to turn-out for Democrats and that changed the political equation in formerly red Nevada. Some of it is the influx of Californians--particularly in Washoe County (Reno), which was red, but is now tilting just a bit blue. The rest of the state is going to be red for a while as the eastern part of the state is mostly influenced by Utah and has a high percentage of Mormons.

At this point you can pretty much look at the west and see red states with a significant Mormon population (Utah, Idaho, Arizona) duking it out with the blue states increasingly influenced by emigrating Californians (Oregon) and Latinos (Arizona, New Mexico).

Harry Enten:

[quote]AZ Senate might not really be all that close in the end if current trends continue...

I just realized I'd missed this old news about the 2020 Census:

[quote]Despite irregularities and what the report describes as a "high degree of disregard for GPO practices and procedures," the GPO's contracting officials awarded the $61 million contract to the printing company Cenveo in October 2017. Less than four months later, Cenveo filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The new contract award was planned for November (now). So far no updates on that.

Native Texans favored Beto over Felito.

Bill Nemitz, of the Press Herald, writes about the fight for MAINE-02:

[quote]Poliquin faces uphill battle for House seat

[quote]Republicans overlook the document that will likely land Jared Golden on Capitol Hill: the Constitution of the United States.

ARIZONA 5 PM UPDATE

SINEMA expands lead to 32,640

****

Sinema (DEM) 1,068,129 (49.58%)

McSally (REP) 1,035,489 (48.07%)

Kyrsten Sinema further expands her lead against McSally. She's now up by 32.6K voters with the new Maricopa vote dump tonight.

I think it's also important to note that the republicans put a long game in place years ago. Meaning they started focusing on local elections and state house races. Let's be honest many Democrats are traditionally, every 4 years for president voters. What republicans were doing was getting republicans elected to the school boards, the elections boards, and all of those low to turnout races which allowed them to write the rules in their favor, which got even more republicans elected and allowed them to drive key processes like redistricting.

Democrats have to vote. Even if it's for local dog catcher, they have to show up to the polls every single time and they have to make it a priority. This is why I hope that one of the measures our new Democratic house will take is election and voting reform and have a house passed bill within the first 100 days. I know it will fail in the Senate, but the optics of such legislation would send a really strong message to voters everywhere and on both sides of the aisle. (Red or Blue, voters want more options and easier access to voting).

Dave Wasserman officially calls it..

Projection: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) has defeated Rep. Martha McSally (R) in #AZSEN. This thing has been over for a while.

R542, I've been thinking the same. I'm with you.

[quote]Dave Wasserman officially calls it..

Wasserman is very likely right that Sinema has beaten McSally. And 538 has the Arizona seat leaning Dem, too.

Although from what I'm reading, the main networks may wait a couple more days before officially calling it.

Wasn't today's vote dump in the AZ Sen race supposed to favor McSally? It was a net 2000+ vote pick-up for Sinema, not McSally.

Yeah the Arizona race is definitely over by this point, Sinema won. The only thing to determine is how large her final margin of victory will be.

Yes, the numbers look very bad for McSally.

Today was the day she needed to make up ground in the count, and instead she lost ground.

All credit to Senator Sinema. She ran a great campaign. And mad props for her losing weight. She was always cute, but she used to be kind of zaftig.

From some comments made by Cindy McCain about how the Arizona GOP was trying to stop the vote-by-mail count, and how she had voted by mail and would please like her vote to be counted, one gets the impression that she voted for Sinema.

An observation from Nate Silver on the changes happening in the Sun Belt:

[quote]I still think Dems' most impressive performance Tuesday was in the Upper Midwest but the Sunbelt has emerged as more of a rival as more votes have been counted. In addition to flipping NV-Sen and (probably) AZ (and coming close in TX), lots of House flips for D's in the Sunbelt.

It's overdue, but not surprising. I've always felt that if the GOP candidate had been anyone other than McCain, Obama would have won Arizona in 2008.

R550, I know someone who knows her--and, yes, a vote for Sinema is likely. She's more liberal than is generally known, which is why I'm sure there was a bunch of hedging about giving her McCain's seat.

Cindy McCain should just become a Democrat and run in 2020. Personally I quite like her, even tho I dislike her daughter and dead husband.

[quote]Cindy McCain should just become a Democrat and run in 2020. Personally I quite like her, even tho I dislike her daughter and dead husband.

I mean, the enemy of my enemy and all that.

Cindy has always been pro-LGBT, which is good. Although if we're talking about Republican spouses who are more likable than their men, I like Laura Bush more than Cindy.

Although to be fair, I've also never been in a crosswalk when Laura Bush was trying to get somewhere...

So which seats are flippable in 2020? If it ends this year 47/53, the Dems need to flip 5 (Alabama will be a goner). Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and which others?

[quote]So which seats are flippable in 2020? If it ends this year 47/53, the Dems need to flip 5 (Alabama will be a goner). Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and which others?

2020 is probably the most vulnerable Susan Collins and her concerns have ever been, so Maine. North Carolina could be winnable if they find a good candidate.

Colorado is without a doubt their most sure flip.

My money's on CO, IA, ME, NC, and MT.

I'm going to make a bold prediction here and say that if Allison Lundergan Grimes decides she doesn't want to run for KY governor, she's going to give McTurtle a serious race.

R529, true. But he endorsed fewer candidates. Not even close to Obama's number. So it's hard to judge his influence, yet.

There are murmurs starting here in Texas that Cornyn may decide to not run again in 2020. If so, that would be an open seat. Beto could make another run and might very well take it this time.

I'd put down AZ as another potential flip, more likely than Montana actually. I think just the right Democrat has to run to win in Montana.

It's perhaps worth pointing out that the Bernie-backed candidates were largely defeated in the primaries. The only ones that made it into the general were the ones like Ocascio-Cortez (who, for the record I like, and would have happily voted for if I lived in her district) who ran in the cobalt-blue districts.

R557, more about Allison Lundergan Grimes please.

R556, both Senate seats for New Hampshire are already Democratic:

1) Jeanne Shaheen

2) Maggie Hassan

Need to get rid of Susan Rice. She's like the guest who can't make up their mind at the restaurant and takes forever to decide.

She's the current Kentucky SoS. She ran against McTurtle in 2014, but that was obviously a bad year. She's managed to be elected to SoS twice, so she's got statewide appeal. I honestly expect her to run for Governor (she's probably more likely to win that), because that election is next year. I don't know if she's announced any intentions.

Stay positive. We won't need to flip 5 because we will have a Democratic VP as the 51st vote. We'll only need three if we can either hold Alabama or turn Mississippi in the runoff, four if we can do neither of those.

Personally, I think Collins will be gone. She's backed down and fucked over her moderate voters one too many times. We'll have to wait and see about any surprise retirements announced in the next year or so to better judge where the openings will be. Sasse has talked about leaving the Repug party altogether but he's also a proven lying drama queen. By the time Trump gets done with the next year or so, there might be more Repugs leaving than we think.

Who'd run against Collins?

Chellie Pingree, the Congresswoman in the 1st district.

I want to keep up with the emerging 2020 Congressional races, Senate especially.

Susan Rice, R567.

R564, she doesn't need to decide right now. She's got a year or so. (Or did you mean to type Susan Collins?) After this election, I think a minority woman would definitely take down Collins.

Scott is going to cause violence in Florida.

And the reason that I say that is everyone expected Pingree to run for governor this year. She'd have won, so the only reason I can think that she didn't want to was because she knew she'd be running against Collins, and didn't want the narrative to be that she was abandoning the governor's mansion to go back to Washington.

I'll be buying a Susan Rice shirt in 2020. Collins needs to go in ignominy.

Pity that Collins could have gone out like her colleague, Snowe, with dignity and prestige, instead she'll be known as a Trump ass-licker.

[quote]Pity that Collins could have gone out like her colleague, Snowe, with dignity and prestige, instead she'll be known as a Trump ass-licker.

Apparently, Snowe HATED Collins. Which makes me like Snowe even more than I already did.

I am fairly confident that if Snowe was still in the Senate, she'd have a -D after her name now.

Or an I, R575, since Maine's other senator does. Maine is fine with independents.

I keep wondering if Murkowski might go independent--pro health care and entitlements, but also pro gun rights and big oil, since that's kind of Alaska's general political bent.

Murkowksi should go independent, if the red tsunami of 2010 didn't unseat her (she even won as a write in, lol), she's secure in her seat.

Also, win Sinema most certainly winiing this, the only States that are digging in their heels with their deplorableness are Indiana, North Dakota, and Missouri. Florida flipped a few House seats, and even hardcore deplorable States like Kansas and Okhlahoma flipped a seat.

[quote]I keep wondering if Murkowski might go independent--pro health care and entitlements, but also pro gun rights and big oil, since that's kind of Alaska's general political bent.

She's disappointed me a lot, but I do like her more than I like Collins. I just don't know if she'd caucus with the Ds if she changed her affiliation. She does get a lot of crossover support, which is why she held on in 2010, even when everyone had to spell "Murkowski."

LOL R555

Real Democrats don't win easily in Alaska--too many Big Oil pipeline workers, basically. The Democrats have basically done too good a job of protecting Alaska's environment for them to be popular with that crowd.

That said, Alaskans don't hate immigrants in the same visceral way some of the more redneck states do. Alaska's a state that *pays* people to live there year-round. A lot of people just aren't up for four months of darkness and bitter cold.

Nelson campaign is looking for recount volunteers, lawyers and non-lawyers. Share the link with anyone who may be interested

R570, yes, I meant to type Susan Collins, not Susan Rice. Collins, the annoying procrastinator.

There's stuff happening. Kemp's lead shrinks.

Davidson helped him win. Idiot.

Don't know if this has been covered yet and I'm too lazy to scroll through all these posts. If the law triggers a recount, if it is stated in the law that there has to be a recount, then why doesn't the Law also allow adequate time for a recount? Or at least detail how the recount is supposed to occur within a specific time frame. When I say "How" I mean specifically detail the process so people can fulfill the requirements and do an accurate and fair recount in the spirit and the letter of the law.

Because it's fucking Florida.

From today.

Sorry but that article at R587 makes a whole lot of favorable assumptions for Trump going into 2020. Even when the author tries to tamp down on those, he doesn't go far enough. Even without everything else, the economy will sink Trump in 2020. The first two years were Obama's economic holdover. We're now starting to see the damage Trump and the Repugs have done economically. It's been slightly delayed by the false and short-term bump that giving so much money to the rich with those tax cuts had and the inflated profits of corporations due to those same cuts, but that is ending.

By late December or early January, the economy is going into a precipitous slide. Watch the asshole try to blame the new Democratic House even though they won't have had time to even do anything.

Just so you know where the writer of that article is coming from, he calls Clinton an "unadaptable and clumsy candidate". Uh huh. He's like the worst concern troll on DL.

look at close Florida, Georgia and Texas midterms were. I can't imagine how many more voters will come out in 2020 as voter numbers always go up for Presidential elections. Democratic voters will go up. I don't see the repub votes going up by much as their base keeps shrinking. How many more Silent Gen'ers and Baby Boomers will die in those 3 states before 2020 November? Could be the difference

Runoff Mississippi. Donate.

Can't stand political pundits who know zip about the economy. Trump dumped a ton of money into the economy to boost it pre-midterms, but we're looking at an insane deficit as a result that will be show up by 2020.

Also, over half the country hates Trump. Really hates him. He hasn't hit 50 percent approval since early 2016. The economy's booming, the unemployment rate is low and the GOP *still* lost big time. And it lost big time in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania--all states Trump needs for re-election. He also lost Iowa by a lesser amount, while Nevada and New Mexico both went super-blue.

Just as important--the Republicans lost the suburbs this election. And white women.

Every other wave election I can remember was spurred by economic issues. Not this time--the majority of voters hate Trump that damn much. Add in any kind of economic downturn--and we're heading towards one--and all of Putin's shenanigans and October surprises won't keep Trump in office.

2020 will be 2018 with a bad economy added on top. Repug slaughter.

And the Dems yet again would have to pull the chestnuts out of the fire. Like Obama did with Dubya's messes in 2008.

I fear that the deplorables will riot across the country if Trump loses re-election. The MAGA cult is sick. Trump on numerous occasions has talked about how he'd love to be president for life.

New thread for the continuation

And we

are out

of here.

New thread here: