Midterm Elections Thread: official, discuss midterm elections, Part 8

Katie Hobbs won AZ governor...yay! Another trump loss...lol.

Cry, cunt, CRY!

Thanks, OP!

"@TomiLahren I’m a Trump supporter, but I can’t figure out why Trump didn’t spend a little bit more of his fundraising money helping other Republicans…"

She hasn't figured Trump out at all, has she?

[quote]She hasn't figured Trump out at all, has she?

Tomi sounds very "special."

@__TEAM_USA · So we're supposed to believe that Arizona voted to re-elect the Republican State Treasurer by a margin of over 100,000 votes yet somehow didn't vote to elect Kari Lake?

I think I misread that tweet at R6 - he's claiming some sort of fraud? I thought he was pointing out how much she was hated. Sorry.

R7. Yep, fraud. Couldn't be that she's a heinous cunt loathed by voters

There was a ton of vote splitting going on in Arizona. Clear message to the crazy MAGAt candidates. Yee isn't one of the crazies.

GOP Congressional candidates in Arizona: +6.3%

Kari Lake ran 7.1% behind Arizona Republicans. Blake Masters ran 11.4% behind AZ Republicans.

Kimberly Yee ran 4.9% ahead of AZ Republicans.

Yee ran 16.3% ahead of Masters

Kimberly Yee is a boring republican Trump ignored and didn't endorse even if she's a also a Trump supporter, she's more quiet about it lately and isn't batshit insane, or is less obvious she is. She didn't go pal around with the crazy ones like Kari Lake and Blake Masters either. Not surprised she won when others didn't. Arizona isn't a blue state, but seems to be an anti-Trump state.

Kari Lake turns around as her campaign manager calls her and tell her she lost the election.

At least four charities, including Trump's of course, are using Herschel Walker's name but keeping 90% of the proceeds.

And he's really pissed!

I look forward to Lake's gracious concession...

Sucka!

So no vice president for you loser Lake.

I like vice-presidents who don't lose their elections for governor.

Only 3 more wins for the repugs until they have the majority of the house. This is depressing.

R17, blame it on the New York Dems. who couldn't fucking win their seats.

Yes R17, they [italic] are [/italic] going to get the House;

But, like their abortion ruling,

Or their chosen Special Master,

Or their Trump endorsements,

It’s going to end in tears.

Discovering Republican voter fraud could give Liberals the thinnest of majorities.

Blame NY on a very disruptive billionaire. Even “non” trumpers like Scaramucci were going all in on the “crime wave” narrative. Many are saying suburban dingbats who fall for every single republican scare tactic haven’t worked in the city for a long time due to ‘work from home’ are partly to blame for those largely suburban loses.

Still, HOLY HELL Democrats cleaned up this election. This was thoroughly satisfying in every way. Those insane maga republicans can’t crow about winning the House (if they do) because it is so close Democrats and vulnerable republicans might form a coalition to prevent maga from gaining power in the House.

Yes...good chance for Democrats to lose the House (it's still not over), but the loss will not be a great as originally thought. They could still take it, but winning the Senate puts Democrats in a better position. They have the majority to put a stop to crazy legislation put forth by repubs. If Warnock wins in December, they will pick another Senate seat...even better. Even with a House loss, I still feel better.

...pick *up another Senate seat..^^

As long as Golden holds his ME seat, looks like the whole New England House delegation remains bright blue. Sucks to be you, Allan Fung!

GOP probably taking House. But this narrow a lead is unstable, especially when you have a sizeable number of lunatics making up that lead who don't know or care how to govern and have no strategy beyond screeching nonsense like hyenas to their MAGA cult. This will be an all-out shitshow, starting immediately with the election of the Speaker.

R25 Is it possible for dems to work together with sane republicans? They can still get stuff done, right?

[quote]They could still take it, but winning the Senate puts Democrats in a better position. They have the majority to put a stop to crazy legislation put forth by repubs.

CONFIRM ALL THE JUDGES!

At this point, it's a win-win for the Democratic Party. A slight majority by the Republicans will result in the public be more annoyed by time and resources the Republicans waste on stunts like trying to get Trump as Speaker of the House, for example. A slight majority of Democrats will help Liberals to get some laws and safety measures through the legislature, which could safeguard minority and voting laws and rights.

I think the best bet is to rattle the Republicans either way by looking for voter fraud the Republicans committed. The next two years will be total infighting chaos for them, again, either way.

In MI-03 (Grand Rapids etc.) a Democrat, Hillary Scholten, comfortably beat a MAGAt, John Gibbs. This was the seat of libertarian anti-Trump Republican Justin Amash, who left Congress in 2021 and was succeeded by the philosophically similar Peter Meijer (Meijer's chain store heir). But poor Peter was of course primaried and defeated by the MAGAt, who then was beaten by the Democrat 54-41 (a Libertarian got 2%). A typical story.

R26, it's possible. It's a matter of picking the right "sane" Republicans to target. They need people who either don't care about being primaried in 2024 or who are safe from it.

I think Biden's best bet is to sit back and let the crazy happen, and then in a few weeks start having meetings with some of the not-insane Republicans who got fed up quick with the nonsense to talk about some cushy administrative appointments. "Would you rather be ambassador to a country with a nice warm climate, or have to keep yelling at MTG to stop talking near open mics about who the real Jews are?"

Just my Debbie Downer take. The House will have a narrow Republican majority. I think that Kevin will sway any defectors over to his side with money and key committee assignments and that they will emerge, PUBLICLY, united, but behind closed doors it will still be a fucking mess of a caucus. I don't believe any republican who says that they're willing to work with Democrats on a consensus Speaker. They press release that stuff so that it raises their profile and their possibility of better committees. Then, the Republican House will try to govern like they had a mandate and the media will just roll over and play that narrative. Luckily the Senate will be able to stop the crazy, but not all the investigations that will happen. I think we've seen versions of this all before, Republicans never learn.

Democrats did amazingly well last Tuesday. There is a lot to celebrate, so there is much to be positive about. I just don't think the Republicans in disarray thing is going to hold up.

[quote] then in a few weeks start having meetings with some of the not-insane Republicans

... whose replacements will be appointed by Democratic governors.

R32 There are special elections for the House of Rep. people are not appointed that only happens in the Senate.

Article from the WashPost about whether Covid deaths affected election results. (The short answer is that they didn't, even though they affected Republicans more. If you believe in science and evidence based answers at least.)

Lollollol at the pic @R12!

They know they are soooooo wrong, always picking the most shambling, hat-in-hand "Yassuh boss" prefrontal cortex damage-having photos of Herschel every single time🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂😂🤭

But they's so many....!

[quote]I just don't think the Republicans in disarray thing is going to hold up.

I get your logic and don't know if I'm making a reasoned case or just expressing wishful thinking, but I think there is a chance it will hold up. They are a bit rudderless and there's lots of division, with no one who can can command obedience. The Maggats feel threatened, the mainstream Rs see a chance to get them back in their pen, Trump's in decline and finally discredited, DeSatan doesn't automatically get the crown. I think there's enough instability at play it could stagger on as one big clusterfuck. Where I think they'll reach a point they could align would be after losses in 24.

What time is today's special announcement?

The Republican from Nebraska, Don Bacon, has already said that he'll work with Dems if he has to, to get a Speaker installed.

There's talk online that Bacon frequently claims to be a moderate but then always votes far right regardless of what he said earlier, so take this with a grain of salt.

I am signing on to the argument made here and elsewhere: this election showed that Americans are mostly getting weary of the crazy, have not let the lies/gaslighting move them, and really are interested in politicians speaking about issues (choice, inflation, climate, infrastructure, middle class help, even economic equity). With House majority and with the House Crazies voting for McCarthy for Speaker only if he "stays on message" - they are going to impeach Biden, investigate ad nauseum Hunter's lap top and business, election "fraud", etc. etc. Every news cycle will be filled with these exhausting rightwing MAGA tilts at imaginary windmills. The American Public Sphere will increasingly just want them to STFU and go away. 2024, with Biden or not, will be positioned for another Dem win for Presidency and the House. Dem wins in dangerous states - leg, SoS, Gov - will help protect 2024 election integrity.

A deep breath of relief...

CBS says announcement time is 9 p.m. tonight, Eastern Time, live from Maga-Lardo.

WI Gov: 2022 Evers 51.2 (+3.4) Michels 47.8 2018 Evers 49.5 (+1.1) Walker 48.4 Evers won by more in 22 even though the national environment shift from 18 (D+9) to 22 (R+2-3) was more than ten points towards Republicans.

Democrats...you have another chance. Make good use of your good fortune and don't blow it. How often does something like this happen? Traditionally, the opposing party of the POTUS usually cleans up in a midterm. trumpantics, the prospect of election deniers put in powerful positions...losing democracy, abortion and other rights in danger, have helped you this time...again. Don't squander it.

Wouldn't it be swell if the DOJ were to announce, at 4:45 pm today (ET), that Shitler has just been indicted for violations of he Espionage Act?

Republicans lie. R38. You cannot believe not one of them. NOT ONE OF THEM!

[quote]Trump's in decline

How is Trump in decline when...

[quote]CBS says announcement time is 9 p.m. tonight, Eastern Time, live from Maga-Lardo.

They're giving him primetime and yet would not even air a live speech given by PRESIDENT BIDEN a few weeks ago? UGH! It just GRATES my nerves!!!

So true R45. Fuck the media.

[quote]Then, the Republican House will try to govern like they had a mandate and the media will just roll over and play that narrative

Not only the media but the Democrats will too. They will say nothing...

Dump is ratings r45. I’m reminded of the scene from Private Parts, the Howard Stern movie.

Researcher : The average radio listener listens for eighteen minutes. The average Howard Stern fan listens for - are you ready for this? - an hour and twenty minutes.

Pig Vomit : How can that be?

Researcher : Answer most commonly given? "I want to see what he'll say next."

Pig Vomit : Okay, fine. But what about the people who hate Stern?

Researcher : Good point. The average Stern hater listens for two and a half hours a day.

Pig Vomit : But... if they hate him, why do they listen?

Researcher : Most common answer? "I want to see what he'll say next."

Elijah Reichlin-Melnick

[quote] Lots of talk about why the "red wave" hit NY and pretty much nowhere else except FL. Here's my take.

[...]

[quote] Zeldin was in my district 8-10 times. He showed up, with an active & engaged campaign. Republican volunteers & voters were energized. Democrats weren't. Campaigns matter. Progressive v. moderate matters less than active v. inactive. Want to win as a Democrat? Work for it! 10/10

So why can't California in particular wrap this shit up? Just checked 538 and it looks like there are 10 California House seats up in the air. Why? Why can't anyone count ballots in California? Is there some legitimate reason, or just incompetence?

24 Democratic governors is huge. Dems have a farm team again

R50, state law gives them an extended deadline.

More importantly, though, other countries make in-person voting much easier. If we did that, it would make it easier to quickly tally the results.

R52

Hillary Clinton's post about female governors.

Black turnout was so down, and was extraordinarily obvious just looking at the county map results for the South. Hope they recover that in 2024. Also hope that Warnock will be fine in his runoff too, though he most likely is, still worrying.

Link please, R55.

[quote]The Republican from Nebraska, Don Bacon, has already said that he'll work with Dems if he has to, to get a Speaker installed.

Democrats repeatedly forget one of the most important things... Reps always lie. Always.

Never believe a word any of them ever says.

The sooner everyone can remember that and stop giving them the benefit of the doubt, we'll be much better off. Problem is, most always forget this... and Reps count on that.

Thank you for reminding everyone of that, R57.

R57 is spot on.

Hey, I SAID at r38 that we should take Bacon's comments with a grain of salt. Don't purposely omit that part in your quote and then act like you have to tell me that he could be lying.

R55, you can't be coming here posting brush stroke statements like that without "something" to support that statement in some way. Now, I'll admit that I have posted that I would not be surprised if the Black numbers were down because I don't believe that Democrats truly get the depths of disappointment that is within the black community because of their inability to do something about voting rights and police reform. However, I believe that Democrats have been given a second chance (more like a 50th chance) to do something about those issues. Jamal Bryant (Pastor in Atlanta) has gone multi-viral with his takedown of Hershcel Walker and the talk of Hakeem Jeffries becoming the leader of Democrats is causing the community to pause and listen up. But... it is the young people shaking things up here! I want every single niche group to fight as if life depended on it for their civil rights! I want to see the Black community DEMAND and hold whoever is responsible for protecting civil and equal rights. I want to see the gay community DEMAND that same-sex marriage be codified. Let's not make the mistake that the women have made. I want to see the Latino/Hispanic DEMAND that something be done to protect our DACA people and move to a better immigration system. I want the Jewish community to DEMAND that this anti-Semitic mess be stopped and stomped out in its tracks. We will not go through that anti-Jew shit again. We ain't doin' it! I want women to realize and admit THEIR mistakes in not demanding that Roe be codified. But, that's okay... we must work to get that done now. On and on...

Don't try to distract and/or tear down. R55. Everyone is starting to wake up and stop watching "Real Housewives" and all that other nonsense. People are realizing that today's Republicans are less than pieces of shit and therefore it will take all hands on deck to flush the shits down the toilet.

Go take a walk or something, R60. That was a complete overreaction.

R50 I guess the simple answer is there are a lot of people living here. California is a lot of things, but incompetent during elections is not one of them. The voting system is a well-oiled machine. The ballots are simple. If you vote by mail, the controller's office will personally (via text) track your ballot from the moment they mail it to you to the moment it's scanned and counted (if you return your ballot via USPS, you'll be notified the moment it's postmarked). They'll even remind you to return your ballot. All in all, the entire process takes less than a week (if you vote early, of course).

There's nothing out there but exit polls right now, and I'm not seeing a single thing saying Black voters didn't turn out. I'd be interested if there was an article that said that, but I suspect r55 doesn't have a link. It's probably another "I heard this on a podcast but don't know which one" situation. We have had a lot of those lately.

I'm not R55 and I do remember reading an article that said that black turnout in Georgia had been much lower than in the 2020 election, and that it maybe bode badly for Dems in the coming runoff, unless they can be inspired to get out and vote. I don't remember for sure what the source was, but it was very likely the ATL Journal-Constitution, since I'm in GA.

[quote]Black turnout was so down, and was extraordinarily obvious just looking at the county map results for the South

This is where you lost me. You mean to tell me that black turnout was down in the gerrymandering capital of the world? Shocking!

Can Qev get 30 Democrats to vote for him?

R60 no one was making it sound like you were saying anything. It was a general statement re: Democrats history of ALWAYS giving them the benefit of the doubt.

Calm down.

Fascinating...

Is Kari white?

[quote]Of all the races, this is the biggest gut punch.

I'll see you gut punch and raise you a kick in the cuntbone.

She burns in Hell, r70!

The WSJ’s editorial board calls Trump “a loser.”

And, speaking of losers, Rick Scott has announced his intention to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate Minority Leader.

Goodness, the Republicans are turning into the annual Ewing barbecue.

^^^^^^^^^^^

A walking cadaver replacing a wounded turtle. This is gonna be good. And I thought the Death Santis/ Orange Blob slug fight was going to be wild. (I still do)….

[quote]Rick Scott has announced his intention to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate Minority Leader.

Because 'ol Rick did such a good job running the campaign to elect Republican senators?

BTW, I find Rick Scott's electoral success completely baffling. He looks like a horror film extra, he's a terrible public speaker and he robbed the American public of billions.

Guess that makes him irresistible to Florida Republicans.

It would be some kind of sweetness, though, if McConnell got the boot. Actually it would be win-win because the loathsome old fucker actually knows how to cause mayhem. Scott couldn't run a wind at your back election.

True r77. There is this idea that anybody can just walk into a job like that and have all that power and use it effectively. I suspect there is a very small number of people who can actually do what McConnell and Pelosi do.

[quote]I suspect there is a very small number of people who can actually do what McConnell and Pelosi do

Pelosi doing it for good, McConnell doing it for evil.

Yes, also agree with that r79.

While McConnell is absolutely evil... part of me still worries that he's still SANER than the rest of them.

[quote]He looks like a horror film extra

More than an extra.

Colbert

[quote] Is Kari white?

No one knows. She's too red from national embarrassment and Liz Cheney's tweet at the moment!

Hee, r84, that red handprint on her face ain't going away any time soon.

putting on a my tinhat, never a good look for anybody, is the fact she's been so quiet a sign she's flying to Mara-lardo or a sign of something else? Because it's not a sign she's forgotten how to run her stupid mouth.

Is Scott is being backed by the “R stands for Russia” caucus of Rand Paul, Ron Johnson and Mike Lee?

Blake Masters, who has not conceded publicly, called Mark Kelly today and offered his congratulations..

That's because Micharls was a terrible candidate r41. Many Republicans in WI didn't like him.

Vaughn Hillyard delivers an autopsy for the Lake campaign.

A lot of the commentary I'm seeing on this challenge is about a generational shift—but Rick Scott is 70! He's only ten years younger than Mitch!

Can someone please explain the GOP house vote math for me.

McCarthy was nominated 188-31, which equals 219.

There are only 213 republicans in the house.

Or does the nomination vote include newly elected reps?

Loopy Laura Loomer turns on "hog-hunting CUCK" MTG. I'm enjoying the infighting while it lasts.

I thought Hochul was really liked in NY. There was all kinds of commotion made about her having visited every county in NY and being so well liked and known especially upstate.

That billionaire pumped tons of money into NY races and suburban dingbats, who work from home now and don’t understand NYC isn’t a crime hellhole like they’re being told by the media and attack ads because they don’t visit the city anymore. NYC is far safer now than it was under Ruuuudy. Who cares that crime was decreasing. It was way higher. It is a densely populated city of 9 million. You can report on crime nonstop if you wanted and scare people. Per capita, it’s safer than many red run cities.

Very good points, R94. I don't know what people have against Hochul. I was quick to pull the misogynist card but... well, I don't know...

People simply DO NOT think! If crime is so bad and out of control as they want people to believe, then why are NYC rents at their highest levels (and going higher) than have ever been seen? Since when do people pay on average $4K/month ( for a one bedroom) for the privilege of being mugged or killed?

R95 Houston stations, they aren’t even owned by Sinclair, started the “crime/inflation” narrative hard in January. It was nonstop. Everything was framed in the worst terms possible. It was so obvious.

As soon as the election was over, in the morning for one hour as I watched, not one, not one story about crime ON A LOCAL STATION who are known for “if it bleeds it leads”. Also, not one story on inflation whereas before every single thing they could think of was linked to inflation. “Hey Astros World Series tickets are going high. This year makes affording them less likely due to inflation. Derr derrr derrr.” Coverage has largely been crime free in the mornings (more crime obviously happens overnight) and just a smidge of inflation talk. They couldn’t make their bias more obvious. This shit happens all over the nation. Wonder why certain areas are more red than blue? Look who owns the local media or/and how it is run.

Also, our trolls (so so stupid) give away early what talking points and narrative republicans are going to start using. I’ve told my friend in DC to follow DL because the Boris and Natasha always give it away in advance.

R96 Meant coverage *since the election* has largely been crime and inflation free.

Let's forget Kari Lake, ignore whatever batshit crazy things she says, and focus like a Jewish laser beam on Herschel Walker. He can't win.

Karen Bass takes the lead in the mayoral race.

And this SOB can’t fuck off:

R99 what an ALPHA

Haha, that's so true, r96. I appreciate it because it gives me time to research details for use in rebuttals elsewhere.

Does anyone know what can an attorney general do in Arizona? The MAGA candidate, Abraham Hamadeh, seems like he could win and Kari Lake's campaign have tweeted that it's important that he wins so that he can 'get to the bottom' of their election fraud conspiracy lies.

R102 He can fap furiously.

R99, Villanueva is an ass and rather hated here. The little stunt he pulled -- raiding Sheila Kuelh's home -- put the nail in his coffin. And now LA county leadefs hold the right to oust Sheriffs. Good going!

R99, huh? It was called for Karen Bass a fee days ago?

[quote]raiding Sheila Kuelh's home

What was *that* about, r105?

*few

R105 nope still counting. The MAGAts on Caruso's IG are melting down

^Meant r104

Has control for us house been called?

R109, supposedly investigation into contracts being awarded to some non-profit, but really, Villanueva was being petty and wanted to retaliate against Kuehl (who was outspoken against him). Now he's gone and sheriffs can be ousted (they couldn’t before).🤣

House seats in California:

Michele steel (r), who is pure evil, won against jay Chen (d). Somehow this fake name, North Korean got a shit ton of money.

Ken Calvert won Will Rollins in Palm Springs.

Dems really needed these seats. And these batshit maga republicans should not have won at all. Dangerous, especially fake name Michele steel.

How fucking *dare* he do that to our Zelda, r111.

Good news:

Mike levin (dem) and Katie porter (dem) both have more votes. Though not projected or called yet.

These are good, hard working reps and Americans need them.

CA- get rid of your independent redistricting. Now.

Isn't it ironic that the House was not lost in the " flyover states." It was lost in New York and California. Where's your arrogance now.?

Good news:

Karen bass up significantly against scumbag developer Caruso. Caruso is really a Republican and it looks like Los Angeles voters saw through he bs.

The House was also lost when Shelby County v. Holder (2013) neutered the government's ability to curb racist gerrymandering.

It looks like the local media that is now owned by rethugs did its thing in NY and CA.

They scared democrats to hell on those areas convincing them that sudden death was around every corner and they fell for it.

Stupid fools will pay the price.

Democrats are from Venus but Republicans are from HELL!!

Has the crazy lady been 5150ed yet?

New York is the reason why we don't have the House. Good job New York. Now go somewhere and sit down.

Picture it, Michigan 2018 the voters approve Non partisan drawing of legislative boundaries. Michigan 2022 Democrats win control of the both houses of the Michigan legislature for the first time in 40 years.

Republicans and billionaire Republican super pac went door to door in California districts and did very targeted social media ads. Very expensive. Plus, this was at the last minute.

It looks like mike levin and Katie porter was able to address this in their districts. Though, new comers will Rollins and jay Chen were not. I would say they could win in two years. Michele Steel is pure evil. And Palm Springs will flip blue, after they show who ken Calvert is.

Super close race for AZ AG. Dem Kris Mayes is leading MAGAt Hamadeh by only 771 votes after today's counts. Not many ballots left but it's thought that Mayes may squeak it. It'll be going to an automatic recount for sure though.

Billionaires are going ape shit that Democrats raised their taxes and gave a huge amount of money for the bottom 99%. Look how Elon, Mr. Clean Energy, went full on maga. They reacted similarly with Clinton and Obama. They spent huge sums to defeat Democrats. This time, republicans are just too fucking insane to win. This will only accelerate in ‘24. They’re so close to a full oligarchy.

The more spent on us the less likely they can take it back for tax cut for the rich. That’s the real reason republicans don’t like spending.

CA better gerrymander the hell out of the state so we have safer blue seats to guard against billionaire spending. It’s the only reason TX hasn’t turned more Blue. 3 billionaires own the state. “Deep In The Pockets of Texas” can happen to your state (and it has to many).

So proud of our Upper MidWest! And we even held the KS Gov seat!

AZ will have a Dem governor, a Dem SOS, a Dem AG, and two Dem senators (well, Sinema was a Dem when elected), but due to gerrymandering we just lost two Congressional districts.

The conservative Wall Street Journal has had enough as well. Their editorial: "Kari Lake, a telegenic fraud theorist straight out of Mar-a-Lago casting, running in a historically red state, in a year with an unpopular Democratic President and 8% inflation couldn’t win on “Stop the Steal” in 2022, it’s hard to see how anyone else can pull it off."

Saw this on Twitter

“I cannot tell a lie” - George Washington

“I cannot tell the truth” - Donald Trump

“I cannot tell the difference” - Republicans

Honestly, the second and third of those are interchangeable, R128.

'ho bert is going to win by 100 votes.

NC had an absolute cratering of black rural turnout

The rural problem

Shifting electorate

R133 Billionaire money is the reason.

Yes, they are sponsoring disinformation

Josh Harder

Josh Harder sounds like a porn star name

so pissed at the nonpartisan redistricting in NY and CA. We'd have the House otherwise.

I don't agree with principled Democrats who say Democrats should lead by example. I say gerrymander the hell out of Democratic-controlled states to gain control, then pass a national anti-gerrymandering law that will force everywhere to be nonpartisan. If repubs sue and SCOTUS allows gerrymandering, then Democrats should gerrymander just as hard

it's not good right now for the repubs to have any sort of power and sadly they've got the House. Sure it will be ungovernable but they will still raise hell with sham investigations and impeachments. They'll also block any more important legislative ideas.

No doubt control of the House would be in Democrat’s hands if not for redistricting in red states, and lack there of, in some blue states. Democrats may have even gained seats.

VA’s nonpartisan redistricting at the behest of its Democratic legislature also screwed Democrats out of seats. Why are Democrats so stupid at politics?

The good news is this does not bode well for Republicans in 2024. I feel 2020 and 2022 was the best they can do re voters they can bring to the polls. Dems always vote stronger in presidential elections. No way a Republican wins in 2024, and we’ll prob take back the House too.

I think it's too early to be confident - something big could happen or the Dems may run a candidate whom independents don't like.

R142, as said in Harry Potter, constant vigilance. Being confident doesn’t mean you don’t do your best, nor do you ignore the other side.

Senate map for 2024 for dems is awful, so something to be concerned about espeically with some Supreme court judges getting old as shit.

r144 beat me to it.

In the 2024 Senate races the Republicans running seem pretty secure. Of the many more Democrats up (and two independents), I could see Baldwin (WI) and Brown (OH) in close races—maybe also Tester and Manchin? And Sinema or whoever the Democrats run in AZ? But I don't know if that makes the landscape look "awful" for Democrats; they could just as well hang on to those seats.

[quote]I think it's too early to be confident - something big could happen or the Dems may run a candidate whom independents don't like.

Like Hillary?

Well, not just that - I am also not assuming that Trump will be the nominee. Two years is time for someone else to emerge or something to happen to him.

Let it go, r147. Hillary didn't lose because of independents in 2016. She lost because of a handful of "carefully massaged" votes in a couple of strategic states. Proof? Look at the popular vote.

It's kind of the same thing in swing states - it's those swing voters who largely don't understand politics, are uninformed and vote for someone by their impression or how they feel about a candidate. They are more easily fooled and Hillary had had a ton of negative Republican propaganda going on about 'Benghazi' and so on for years.

Yeah, but if a Republican becomes president in 2025, a democratic Senate wouldn’t help unless a vacancy happens in 2028

[quote]so pissed at the nonpartisan redistricting in NY and CA. We'd have the House otherwise. I don't agree with principled Democrats who say Democrats should lead by example. I say gerrymander the hell out of Democratic-controlled states to gain control,

Agree. You can't disarm unilaterally, if one side is going to gerrymander then we have to as well

If you look at a big state like California, there could be so many more Dem reps if it was gerrymandered to hell (Like Texas is for Republicans) rather than the principled route they took of having fair districts. It would be so much harder for the GOP to ever claim the house with a gerrymandered California.

The right wing propaganda machinery spent years to condition the stupid and the uninformed (voters) to have a negative knee-jerk reaction whenever Hillary Clinton's name comes up (Hillary Clinton ... cunt!). And then when the press or Q-Anon posts some anti Hillary lie, these people go "I knew there's a reason why I don't like her!" affirming their established negative impression of Hillary with a lie about Hillary.

The reason why it didn't work so good on Barack Obama at first was, because the right wing propaganda machinery had nothing other than "he's black! He's a N****ER!" since he came practically out of nowhere while Hillary Clinton was the first lady for most of the 90s. Hillary Clinton is an amazing politician, but the right wing has created a powerful negative impression that is deeply rooted in the conservative followers' minds that will work against her forever. And they are doing it with others like Pete Buttigieg and Beto O'Rourke as well. Candidates who come out of nowhere will fare better, because the right wing had no time to establish a negative impression within their followers beyond Liberals = Bad.

They have done the same thing with Nancy Pelosi, R153. There are people who hate Nancy but who couldn't give you an exact reason of why even if their own life depended upon it.

Mmph...

I'm sure this got next to "you know who" this morning.

Is that real r155?

Yep, R156...

It suuuuure is!

Kinda shocking

...but consistent

ugh, and you know that all of those people would be championing him if there had been a red wave. They have no principles.

^^^

Christopher Bouzy

[quote] So if Republicans knew there wasn't a red wave, and several of us on Twitter knew there wasn't a red wave, then why did all the experts push the red wave narrative? Was it gross incompetence, or were they purposely lying about the data?

It is telling that Murdoch's "newspapers" have turned so definitively against Shitler so early in all this campaign. It would have seemed more likely that they would sit back and take a "wait and see" approach. Those NYPost jabs are brutal. They are affirmatively acting to "finish him off" early.

Murdoch is making sure Trump goes down, and is twisting the knife as he does so. Who will Tucker, Sean, the Dooceys, et al. line up behind now?

^DeSatanist

Fox News turning against Trump helps him more than it hurts him.

How so, r165?

R166, I was reading Free Republic last night after he made his announcement and most of the comments were supportive. They dismissed Fox News as an outlet ran by RINOs whose mission is to help put other RINOs in office. They see Trump as a victim who is receiving unfair treatment from from all sides.

R165, how so? It's a simple idea, 3 time loser. And maggats are simple, if nothing else.

-Good, GOOD, mwah-ha-ha-ha.

I'd say that it's still too early. Yep, the conservative "whatever" has thrown Trump to the side as of now but never underestimate Trump. He may come up with something that will have himself rising up from the ashes and bringing everyone (those that are only interested in power) back into the fold.

R167, the sane Republicans (there are some) understand that they will never win a national election with Dump on the ticket or in a position of prominence. The yahoos haven’t figured it out yet. Fox built him up and they can take him down. But Dump is like a rapid dog. He might destroy them too in the process.

[quote]the sane Republicans (there are some) understand that they will never win a national election with Dump on the ticket or in a position of prominence. The yahoos haven’t figured it out yet.

Yes, but Trump presides over a cult, not a political party. Probably 20-25% of the electorate will not back anyone but him, and will see any Republican effort to nominate someone else as treason. That's going to be make it awfully difficult for other Republican candidates.

I'm not shedding any tears.

Maybe they’ll sell him as the white Herschel Walker

^Those folks will sulk and sit it out, if Shitler isn't on the ballot. Exactly what's best for the country. Poor things...

Hah rabid dog at r171.

The danger I see is that Trump doesn't need Murdoch when he has Musk's Twitter, and it remains a popular social media platform, giving him lots of attention. And "well, if Trump is back on Twitter I will leave!" isn't goint to be much of a fix when the stupid, low information voters, who claim to be moderate, are getting brainwashed once again by Trumpism by staying on Twitter, Facebook, etc.

It means Liberals need to be fired up and prepared to vote in even greater numbers and make sure their votes count (in case Republicans came up with new ways of voter intimidation, limitations, interferences).

[quote]The danger I see is that Trump doesn't need Murdoch when he has Musk's Twitter, and it remains a popular social media platform, giving him lots of attention.

The problem is the media in general and the American population. Trump is entertainment. There are too many of us who cannot distinguish between what is reality versus what is entertainment.

FYI...

I think the GOP will work with Garland behind the scenes to get rid of Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if things go south for the Trump family very quickly all of a sudden. The GOP wants DeSantis, he is loyal to the GOP unlike Trump who is only in it for himself to fill his pockets.

Breitfart is all in for Trump. Notice how they are all women. Manson girls redux???

[quote]Maria Fischer: He may not be perfect but one thing he is patriotic and wants the best for this country

[quote]Joan Reynolds: He at least kept his promises.

[quote]Wendy Berg: No truer words spoken!! Not a career politician, but he did more for our country than any other President in modern times. Our country was thriving under him and other countries were not taking advantage of us!! Now we have a weak President who is not even mentally capable to handle the enormity of what it takes to be the President of once the most powerful nation in the free world!!!

[quote]Whitney Walsh Yoder: He did more to help the individual in this country, and the country as a whole, than any President in my lifetime. The stupidity of rejecting what he did for us all over personality issues is the dumbest thing i’ve ever witnessed.

[quote]Linda J. Camp: He served because he loved our country. He has been accused and investigated so many times and NEVER once has anything turned up to find him guilty of crimes against our country ... unlike so many before him and still in power today. They hate him because they fear him.

[quote]Sandra Clough Hellstern: He's the only president that ever cared about our country.

[quote]Joyce Juliano-Culverhouse: We would have been where we are now, 4 years ago if it wasn't for Trump! They knew he was going to expose them all, which was the reason they hated him.

R180, those are some old names.

Where is failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake? I miss her lunacy.

Those women quoted in R180 could not be more deluded. "[H]e is patriotic and wants the best for this country"—"Our country was thriving under him and other countries were not taking advantage of us!" Yeah, and black is white and east is west. Cult behavior again.

I don't fear Trump. I'm just sick of him.

You're assuming they're real, r183.

[quote] I think the GOP will work with Garland behind the scenes to get rid of Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if things go south for the Trump family very quickly all of a sudden. The GOP wants DeSantis, he is loyal to the GOP unlike Trump who is only in it for himself to fill his pockets.

Agree. Mainline GOP plays a long game and they are willing to give up a couple of battles to win the war.

McConnell defeated Rick Scott 37-10 for GOP leadership.

Who were the 9 who sided with Scott...?

Scott would get Cruz and Hawley. Little Marco? Couple of red state fucks.. Mike Lee?

Marco wouldn't comment.

Scott voted for himself & Johnson nominated him.

And

It was a secret ballot but when you see who did and said what also likely Scott got Sen. Mike Braun, (Indiana).

If you can get the list of the sixteen who supported delaying the vote, they'll likely be among them.

Johnson, Lee and Scott proposed waiting to decide on GOP leadership until all votes are tallied... so did little Marco.

All the names so far get you to 8. Lee, Johnson, Scott, Braund, Little Marco, Miz Lindsay, Johnson, Crude, Heehawley.

Sorry I said 8 and that's 9 but I'm just guessing on Lee.

Rick Scott was reportedly devastated:

Why would anyone vote for Rick Scott for "better leadership" when he was the NRSC chair who presided over these disastrous midterms?

Too bad about Rick Scott losing. He's dumber than McConnell.

Is anyone interested in a separate thread to discuss priority legislation for the lame duck? Is there one already?

r199 - Here's a good addition to it, ElderLez...

I would be. Some interesting stuff going on.

Really who votes no for that....

I would be Elder Lez.

OK I have created

Fuck, Cenk. Hate him.

I thought McTurtle was resigning? Just another lie out of a lying liar's mouth.

Sadly, we're probably better off.

There will be a MAGAt rebellion if the media and "RINOs" so obviously continue their attempts to raise Desantis at Trump's expense. How exciting!

Is he wrong in that tweet, r204?

Cenk is a chaos agent. He is not to be trusted.

When I engage maga on Twitter I always point out that all the “RINOs” they hate somehow get elected by margins similar to maga republicans on the same ticket so they must be voting in these traitorous “RINOs”, too? They claim they aren’t, but they are. It drives them crazy!

Ron won’t run in ‘24. I think trump will have the nomination. If he loses, they feel the ‘26 midterms should return to normal midterms, they can get control of many key positions, then Ron will have an easy path to winning in ‘28 after 8 years of a Democratic President, provided it is Biden. 8 years of one party rule tends to send dumbass voters into contrarian mode even though we’ve lost count how many times republicans wreck the economy. I’m not sure anyone else can beat trump but Biden. As conservatives are finding out, people don’t hate Biden. They cannot gin up hatred for him like they can others. We’ve destroyed the Let’s Go Brandon shit with Dark Brandon.

r208 - He's not a favorite of mine, FCI, but he wasn't wrong in that tweet.

[quote]I think trump will have the nomination

You don't think indictments would put a crimp on that, r208?

R209 He says some correct things to have cover for being a chaos agent.

FCI, any truth to the rumors that, should Warnock keep his seat in the run-off, Feinstein is going to step down with Newsom likely appointing Adam Schiff in her place?

Oh, I know,, r211.

Cenk isn't someone who should be talking about reporting actual news.

Schiff definitely wants in the Senate. He is ambitious but has reached his limit in the House, once Pelosi steps down Hakeem Jeffries would easily outcompete him to be the next leader.

Thanks VotN. I'm probably being stupid here, but why do they need to wait and see if Warnock wins before the governor replaces Feinstein if she steps down?

Plus Jeffries is hotter. Schiff always looks vaguely alarmed.

In New York, Democrats who lost are blaming Governor Kathy Hochul for not being tough on crime. Did nothing to revise "No Bail, No Jail" law. Today on TV she claimed crime is a Top Priority,

[quote]Thanks VotN. I'm probably being stupid here, but why do they need to wait and see if Warnock wins before the governor replaces Feinstein if she steps down?

If she steps down right now, they'd lose the majority between when she finishes and her replacement starts.

Ok thanks VotN! I'm so glad you're on Datalounge

Murkowski trails by 600 votes in Alaska.

Relax - neither candidate are expected to reach the 50% threshold for an outright win. So when the additional rounds of voting under Alaska's new ranked choice system starts on Nov 23rd, Murkowski will win since most Dems will pick her as their 2nd choice.

R212 VOTN, I don’t have reliable info on the Senate, but I know Democrats are pressuring her hard to step down.

Repigs win the house. No surprise. Blame NY state for gaining 4 repugnant seats. What’s going on with NY? So many MAGA cunts.

Keven McCarthy as the majority speaker withendless Hunter Biden investigations, calls for Fauci head, and god knows what else

The House barely going to the other party is actually a good thing. They’ll show their crazy, Democrats won’t get all the blame for whatever happens, and we take back the House in ‘24.

Horrible Democratic turnout in California, as well as the South

@BruneElections The Democrats in the two most populous states in the nation completely shit the bed and cost us the House. Newsom has no business being on the national stage when he can't get his own state's voters to show up. Completely the opposite of DeSantis.

Newsom and CA Dem Party should be incredibly embarrassed and ashamed of their performance! Even worse than NY.

Especially with Roe and other rights on the line. Billionaires are going hard after Hispanics. We better step up.

Crist was a catastrophic candidate

Biden/DeSantis counties:

Miami-Dade: continued R shift among Hispanic population

Palm Beach: also very Hispanic and Jewish

Pinellas/Hillsborough: St. Petersburg and Tampa, swing counties

Duval: Jacksonville, voted narrowly for Biden

Osceola: Kissimmee, lots of Puerto Ricans

Let me rephrase- the other party getting a tiny majority will mean they won’t do much damage and we have the Senate to block them. There are a lot of them in VERY Democratic districts. Will they want to be seen as getting things done or coo coo for Cocoa Puffs? Also, they can redistrict in 2023. The crazy will shine bright with the maga House Rs and the country is fucking sick of their shit. Plus, the Roe effects will only get worse and worse as it affects more and more people

Milwaukee County turnout was lower this year than in 2014. By almost 20k...

I don’t for one second think there is this huge swing of voters, especially Hispanics, in just FL, yet the rest of the country had almost polar opposite results from FL. Very suspicious. There’s massive cheating going on there. Those swings are cartoonish.

We now have *fully completed individual level administrative vote history* in Georgia - it seems like there was a substantial drop in relative turnout among young people, with 2022 seeing relative turnout rates much closer to 2014 than to 2018.

isn't it because a lot of the ones in FL are from Cuba?

North Carolina Democrats need to get off their barbecue asses. There's no excuse Dems left 150k Black voters on the table in NC this election. Turnout was under 50% in all but 1 of the state's 6 largest blue counties.

I hate to say this, because he's a nice guy, but I think Jaime Harrison needs to go. I always thought that Stacey Abrams should have that job. Harrison isn't responsible for the New York mess, but I do think a change might do some good as we head into '24.

I wouldn't want to be in McQarthy's shoes. Now he has to fulfill his promises - like cutting Social Security and Medicare - that will be woefully unpopular in '24.

I wish I could be as optimistic as R231

The republicans also did this because Gavin Newsome in California was too busy fvcking around with the MeidasTouch bros and trying to one-up DeSantis rather than paying attention to his own state reps that needed help with turnout. Go learn some poli sci or political theory.

Why are Dems. such wimps? Grow a fucking pair, for fuck's sake!

[quote] She looks like she’s Creole of color. Many passed as White. But, as Governor Long said, “You could feed all the ‘pure white’ people in New Orleans with a cup of beans and a half a cup of rice, and still have food left over.”

I think we may have a Peola Johnson/Sarah Jane situation going on.

R241 other way around. Which party cries like toddlers about stolen elections? Republicans are cry baby pussies.

This homophobic douche pushes right wing BS. Nasty man. Closeted, of course. Light his ass up on Twitter.

Cubans from FL are quite different than Hispanics in CA, NY or the SW. super conservative and hate any whiff of progressiveness aka “socialism” to them.

Venezuelans too

I actually hope the House does try to cut Social Security and Medicare. Some people need to wake the fuck up!

The Venezuelans I know who emigrated here are all Democrats. They can't understand, however, why some American leftists defend Maduro and Chavism, which they see as basically equivalent to Trumpism, but with leftist authoritarian window dressing rather than rightist.

The gains Democrats made in state legislatures are unreal, especially after the massacre in the 2010 midterms.

am fascinated by how obsessed people are about Kari Lake's ethnicity. Why? Because it's hard to tell? (There are plenty of MAGA Black people like Herschel Walker, Kanye, Diamond and Silk, so it can't be that.)

Just the fact that no one is commenting one it, especially her, when she's obviously black.

She's not white. But the only interesting thing about Kari Lake is what a fraud she is. She went from being an Obama supporting Buddhist to a crazy right wing Christian nationalist Trumper because she got off on the social media attention it gave her.

[quote]leftist authoritarian

Define this.

Yeah, that's what I thought.

Just FYI...the Celestial Treasonings: Treason Thread #57 was locked down at around 300 replies (like they usually are). Should we just start new official Treason threads at the 300 mark from now on instead of waiting for 600, especially with all the upcoming treason about to be committed by the new House?

Someone who's a paid member here will have to post a link in the old thread to any new one.

Just a suggestion.

R253 I'm not that poster but the extremes on both sides are authoritarian. For example, Communism and Stalin.

There is debate over whether leftist authoritarianism even exists. I'd say the egalitarian nature of the left's base ideologies make it non-authoritarian by its very nature. There may be the odd megalomaniac in history who pretends to be leftist but, in the end, was actually very right-wing and only sought to increase his own power like a cult leader.

R253, are you denying that a leftist government can be authoritarian? In the case of Venezuela, the government is as hostile to an independent press , judiciary, and electoral system as Orbán in Hungary or Erdoğan in Turkey, concentrating power in the hands of the ruling party, while promoting leftist ideas of public ownership of industry and resources as against capitalism. It also maintains other trappings of leftism such as anti-racism (no complaints there), but a more mixed record on gay rights.

I fail to see the connection of a leftist progressive like AOC being the harbinger of leftist government doom Venezuela, Hungary, Turkey style in the US.

It's like reasonable demands for universal healthcare, minority rights, environmental protection laws, etc. lead to total anarchy and end-of-the-world level of chaos.

And yet the right wing is ignoring the actual murder and mayhem their own unleash here in the US.

THIS IS THE ANSWER to all of the people who have been screaming "just ignore them" or "stop giving oxygen" to MTG or tRump, etc..

Now that they have a tiny bit of power they are going full tilt into investigations and legislation for bullshit. They know what they want to do so it is by far better that we have some knowledge of how to combat it.

Like I said above, R257, there are odd megalomaniacs who put on a veneer of "being leftist" while actually supporting all the usual right-wing authoritarian markers. You have to look at what they say versus what they do and what these supposedly leftist authoritatarians do is always rightwing conservatism in the name of their own power.

It's like saying hippies and Evangelicals are left-wing and right-wing equivalents. No.

R256 That's delusional. What is communism if not an authoritarian leftist ideology? The demand that everyone be the same, get in line.

R261, if the ultimate goal is egalitarianism, then authoritarianism, by definition, cannot exist within it. There would be no authority at the top of an actual egalitarian, communistic society (something that will never exist due to the nature of humans). Like I said, there are megalomaniacs that pretend they are leftist but they are not. They are cultists with themselves at the "authority" who falsely espouse left-wing ideals. That is not true authoritarianism. Authoritarianism seeks to put an authority in place over everyone else through violence and control. True leftist and communistic goals are egalitarian in nature and are therefore antithetical to authoritarianism.

R262 Not how it works in reality at all, cupcake. Your theories exist in your head aka fantasies but I'm concerned with how it works in the real world.

Has the crazy lady in Arizona been picked up off the floor and sedated yet?

No, R264.

But the guy from Brooklyn just got a promotion

R263, since you can't counter intellectually, just go ahead with the name-calling...and all your real-world concerns, of course. You might, however, first want to try to figure out for yourself that authoritarianism and communism are completely different systems and that true communism has never existed in the world while authoritarianism rings throughout human history. All those movements you are thinking of as communist are exactly what I said they were, authoritarians (like Putin or Mao) pretending they are communists while actually being authoritarians with themselves as the authorities. You just have to look at the two words to understand the difference, if you actually care to.

R266 Many countries have tried to install 'true communism'. But none of them have worked out like the theory says in practice because communism doesn't understand human nature. They ALL end up with dictators/authoritarians because human nature just won't behave the way the the theory says they ought to.

[quote] Has the crazy lady in Arizona been picked up off the floor and sedated yet?

R262 I can only believe you are kidding. Any Marxist knows that the "theory" is that an authoritarian stage is necessary to achieve said "egalitarian" outcomes. Problem is/was that communism got stuck in that stage - authoritarianism is so addictive to authoritarians.

[quote]if the ultimate goal is egalitarianism, then authoritarianism, by definition, cannot exist within it.

Ah yes, the "true communism has ever been tried" canard.

^^ "True communism has NEVER been tried," that is.

That's my point, R267. Communism does not exist. It always ends up becoming a right-wing authoritarianistic government system ruled by one (or a group, at times) authoritarian megalomaniac. There is no leftist authoritarianism because you cannot be truly leftist and authoritarian at the same time. As soon as you become authoritarian, you are no longer leftist because the main leftist ideal is egalitarianism.

Human nature is diverse by nature (there's probably some kind of evolutionary benefit to it). Both extremes of right and left (fascism and communism) erroneously believe that you can get everyone on the same page. But it's impossible. No-one has ever been able to do that either in microcosm or macrocosm.

R270, you just keep repeating things you've heard elsewhere. Try to actually think for yourself and respond to what I have actually posted. Go ahead and list all the places that actual communism has been tried. That would mean that there was no power hungry authority figure involved. That only the group made the decisions. Go ahead, list them all.

[quote]There is no leftist authoritarianism because you cannot be truly leftist and authoritarian at the same time.

Forcing people to give up their private property to attain the nirvana of communism seems pretty authoritarian to me.

R274 Even Marx said that an authoritarian was needed to install communism. There are many countries. Right now there are five: China, North Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, and Laos. And in the past several more, especially Eastern Europe.

Would you two please take your babbling elsewhere? It’s fucking tedious and has nothing to do with the topic of this thread.

The midterms are pretty much over anyway.

I don't know what these two posters are going on about. I kicked this discussion off by saying that my Venezuelan friends in the US can't understand why some American leftists defend Maduro and Chavism, which my Venezuelan friends see as basically equivalent to Trumpism (illiberal concentration of power in the hands of one party), but with leftist authoritarian window dressing (e.g. public ownership of resources) rather than rightist (e.g. unregulated capitalism). Theoretical questions about whether authoritarianism can be authentically leftist or not are irrelevant. There are American leftists (I know some) who defend Maduro's policies and that exasperates my friends of Venezuelan origin, who vote for Democrats and loathe the MAGAts but also loathe the Chavistas for similar reasons.

[quote]There is no leftist authoritarianism because you cannot be truly leftist and authoritarian at the same time.

Yes you can! The first phase of socialism according to Lenin is the dictatorship of the proletariat. That should clue you in.

The dictatorship of the proletariat is when the Communist Party (allowing for name variations) as the vanguard and leader of the proletariat grabs power (by any means) and makes sure it keeps it by any means in order to 'build socialism" which is the second phase or so-called developed socialism, with the ultimate goal to transition to communism in some bright distant future. All other functional parties get banned (some regimes left one nominal co-opted "allied" party as a 'democracy' smokescreen), there's no freedom of speech, association or free elections. The party and its leader are the church and the pope.

Resisting authoritarianism was kind of the whole point of the midterms, so, yes, relevant to this thread.

[quote]so, yes, relevant to this thread.

If you want to see it that way, so be it. Doesn't change the fact that the two of you are beyond annoying and I doubt that anyone else here wants more of your bickering.

Are you addressing what I said, R281? I meant irrelevant to the point about the Venezuelans, not to that of this whole thread. I swear everyone in this thread has lost the ability to read in context—especially these two squabblers.

Way to kill the thread with stupid bickering over bullishit.

Take your commies vs fascist discussion to another thread, bitches. Nobody here wants to hear it.

R254 A lot of us have asked to have Treason threads started after one is locked. It never happens. I don’t know why.

I have a lot to say about Pelosi stepping down. I’ve met her, of course. I am actually quite emotional about her stepping down.

I suspect many want to hear your thoughts FCI. I'm curious what you, and really anybody else here, wants to say about what qualifications a Speaker should have. I suspect for many it boils down to "I like him/her and I think they give good speeches and TV appearances and have views I agree with." I think there has to be a whole lot more than that involved in doing the actual job, rather than the fantasy job, but I would be curious about what others think. I'm not sure there is another Pelosi out there, but too bad. A choice will have to be made. At any rate, she is going to be a very tough act to follow.

[quote]I’ve met her, of course.

I'm jealous.

I'd trade in all my con meet & greets to have 15 min with her. I'd totally fangirl out on her.

I love Nancy so much - and she's smart, I bet she's been training her replacement (or more than one possible replacements). I hope they learned well.

R286 I’m more emotional than I thought I’d be. I’ll post something soon about interactions with her (she’s surprisingly accessible), and my tribute to her. It may take a few days. I have such respect and admiration for her. I’d love to hear what others say about her. I’m avoiding the threads about her stepping down. It’s hard to see the end of her era. I thought I was ready, but nope.

R287 You’d feel her presence. She has “it”.

R288 She has, but I don’t know if you can do what she has done. It can’t be taught. She’s brilliant. I cannot stress her brilliance enough. And she truly cares about all citizens. All. Damn.

[quote]I have a lot to say about Pelosi stepping down.

Why do I have this gut feeling that this is more of a strategic move than anything else? Hear me out...

I'm sure that Nancy, Steny, and whoever else are sincere in wanting to bring in fresh/younger leadership. But this old guard is still going to be pulling the strings and making stuff happen. The Republicans have demonized Nancy to the point of where she cannot be as effective as she would like to be. Therefore, (and also given the outpouring of young people to the polls) step aside and let newer/fresher faces become the "face" of Democratic leadership while managing everything from behind the scenes? Compare the faces of the new Democratic leadership coming in to the leadership of Republicans.

Re Kari Lake's supposed "ethnicity": I tried looking into this on the web a few days ago and found no mentions of the matter, whatsoever. I found a photo of her family and it's a big one: She had 7 or 8 siblings (I gather that one of them must have died before the family photo was taken): all are adults, parents still living, one brother and 5 or 6 surviving sisters. The whole family is just as light-skinned as white-bread. Kari does look like her mother, in the face, but Mom is white as white can be. This "Creole" thing does sometimes just show up, from some kind of recessive genes back there in the earlier relatives, but this is a pretty striking instance, considering how many children there are. Someone on the site where the photo was located had made a joke about Mom and the mailman. I'm pretty sure Kari Lake was the baby of the family.

[quote]I'm pretty sure Kari Lake was the baby of the family.

In more ways than one.

She's a mulatto, right?

R291 you’re correct. Still, she’ll let them have room which will certainly include some failings. She knows she has to be somewhat “hands off” to see what they’re made of. She’ll step in on very key, crucial votes, is my guess, like on the debt ceiling.

Anyone know what happened in the Boebert race? Did the idiot win?

Yes, Boebert won. A recount is unlikely to change that. It is what it is. ¯_ (ツ)_/¯

If Dems were reliable at turning out the result would look different - that's one thing the Republicans are really, really good at.

R297 UMMM that is a very red district. She barely won.

It almost flipped. It has had Dem Reps in the past. It's not impossible.

Democrats flipped the PA House.

And the NH House. State level, this was a good election. Which is what we need to build from the ground up.

The only disappointment is the knowledge we could/should have easily retained the House because we lost big Biden districts and flipped 7 R seats (I still count AK as a flip since it was just months ago). And we lost them in freaking NY and CA! We lost it in the face of brutal gerrymandering by Rs. Thankfully, we countered some of it some of our own.

We kept every Gov except one, but we flipped one. We won local and state races.

IN.A.MIDTERM with record spending and billionaires targeting Democrats like never before. With the media pushing R narratives against Ds hard. This is a stunning rebuke of Rs and maga.

Also, our gains didn’t just come on the coast. We had a great showing in the MidWest, Colorado (which is solid blue and trending more blue every year), and AZ! In a good year, we can get MT’s other district, too.

[quote]Colorado (which is solid blue and trending more blue every year)

And yet...

And disappointing in the South

R305 Nothing shocking or unexpected, though.

Shot ----> Chaser

Did Boebert officially win? I though there was going to be a recount?

The Saudis, Russians, and Chinese are big sad over Republicans losing in this midterm. You can see and feel the shock.

Washington Post says it's still too close to call and there will be a runoff.

If she were capable of introspection...

R297 It was Dem turnout in the district that made it so close.

R310 Not a runoff, a recount.

[quote] Frisch stated that while a recount will still likely be automatically triggered, “The likelihood of this recount changing more than a handful of votes is very small.”

But, but, but r314, that would mean elections are actually fair and honest. This will not stand! Lauren, I insist you demand a recount that finds that the entire vote was a fraud, including most of your votes. I'm sorry, you just have to take this one for the The Cause!

Of the 4 seats left, does anyone know which seats are likely to go democratic?

[quote]that would mean elections are actually fair and honest. This will not stand! Lauren, I insist you demand a recount that finds that the entire vote was a fraud

I won therefore it was fair and honest. That's the rule - only if we win.

🚨2022 GA Turnout by race/ethnicity🚨 (as share of citizen voting-age pop)

Total: 51.2% (2018: 52.7%)⬇️ White: 58.4% (2018: 58.0%)⬆️ Black: 43.2% (2018: 47.8%)⬇️ Hispanic: 25.1% (2018: 27.6%)⬇️ Asian/PI: 37.4% (2018: 34.9%)⬆️

Don't forget Skari is also a groomer.

CO 3 will go to a recount under state law, but is unlikely to change the outcome. Frisch opted to concede, and reassure the people of Colorado that their elections are safe and accurate. If Boebert had lost by 552 votes there is not damn way she would have been so gracious. She would have lashed out about cheating and fraud.

She needs to seriously reconsider her behavior. CO3 is a mostly red district, and she, the incumbent, won by 552 votes. That is shameful.

She'd have to know what decent behavior is in order to reconsider what she's done. She's Emmy Slattery.

[quote]She needs to seriously reconsider her behavior. CO3 is a mostly red district, and she, the incumbent, won by 552 votes. That is shameful.

She needs to?

How about the people who voted for her. The woman has done next to nothing for her constituents. MTG has done nothing. Yet, there are people that voted for them?

R317 I see only one going D, so the Rs will have a 9 vote majority. There ability to get anything done would have been harder with the difference only 2-3 votes... absences, sickness, disagreements of two reps would have stopped anything.

So I guess Chris Bouzy was wrong.

Alvin the beagle is back!

Thanks for the info about Pelosi, FCI. She is the Cat Herder Extraordinaire! I admire her greatly and I’m glad she is sticking around to help Jeffries.

Also, there is a “celestial treasonings” thread. They are still active if you want to post there.

We really fucked up the haters good, you all! Ha! They thought they were going to roll us and cram their goddamned religious bullshit down our throats but we kicked them in the cuntbone good and hard! Well done, everyone!

At the state levels we now have started to organize and understand how to win. The new people coming in are our farm team. We have put new blood into the pipeline and hopefully encouraged others to think about running.

Bannon and his pukes are trying to take over school boards to indoctrinate kids into the GQP lunacy. They figure if get them young enough, they won’t ever learn how to think.

The thread is paywalled, r327, so FCI can't post in it.

Oh, damn, r328.

Thanks for letting me know.

Start a new treason thread. We're 57 threads in. I don't think Muriel is forcing anyone to sign up at this point by locking them down.

States with a Dem governor and two Dem senators now total 254 electoral votes. 270 are needed to win the presidency. That's not to say those states will all definitely vote Dem for president, but there sure is a likelihood.

Rethuglian funneled Russian money to Trump 2016 campaign.

This Christian is tired of losing.

Welcome to Oman, Mr. President.

^How unbelievably stupid the Omanis must be. Do they believe that Shitler is a shoo-in to become US President again? Have they been misled about that somehow? It's incomprehensible to me that they are doing this. I hope it bites them in the ass. Hard.

R335, the rulers of the Middle East love the idea of a U.S. President they can openly bribe. That’s the dream for them. They want to believe they can have that again.

All over the country, rural Americans voted for politicians who attempted to overthrow the 2020 election. It's quite disturbing.

Yes, R337, but those hillbillies didn't see it as an attempt to overturn the election. They saw it as an attempt to right a great wrong that had been done to Trump.

Rural America is not the future of America.

It's certainly the now politically. They are storming the polls in record numbers

Check out Figure 2.

The overall rural population is declining, but rural and exurban voters are voting at higher participation rates than big city voters

The part of "rural America" that I am familiar with, the southern half of Georgia, seems to be largely emptying out now. Many, many small towns, all of whose storefronts are just empty, the businesses long closed and abandoned. Covid heightened this business failure, of course, but it was dramatically noticeable before that. I've wondered why it is. Reasonably, nobody in their right mind wants to live in a place where such poverty and failure are the dominant factors of life, so people who have the ability to do it just flee (move to Atlanta, or another bigger town). You just can't make a living in the rural parts of the country anymore.

Don't worry everyone, KANYE is running too!!

Ivanka's conniving and the NY Judge's order to oversee and supervise the outlays of the Trump Organization. The Judge's Order also directs the Org to provide a detailed account (within 2 weeks) of the structure of the business (which means that the Judge knows full well that the whole biz is nothing more than a big candy jar for the Trumps to pull cash out of whenever the mood strikes). It's getting interesting in Trumpworld.

She's a sleaze. I don't know why she isn't in prison for selling condos in Panama City to Russian kleptocrats and drug cartel money launderers.

Today is Belle's big day down in Atlanta!! I predict: pink crinoline!!

Why isn't Ms. Lindsay in trying to fix the election?

Sorry, meant to say in jail

r347, that asshole is going to assert the 5th as many times as Mark Furhman did. He'll probably cry too.

Missy wore her 'fuck-me pumps' to show her disdain for this kangaroo court!

Alaska has spoken: Murkowski reelected, and Sarah Palin defeated.

More defeats for Trump, but please, please make him the nominee in '24!

Mary Peltola beat Sarah Palin by almost 10 points.

[quote]More defeats for Trump

You betcha!

The lipstick is off the pig??

Cue “IT’s STOLEN” by the cry baby weak ass beta maga Republicans in 3,2,1

Another AZ race looks to be won by the Democrat.

R357 If so, that’s a clean sweep of AZ state offices for Democrats, right?

And Kris Mayes is a lesbian too. She is a little shady having only become a democrat a few years back.

R359 Many people are realizing Democrats have better policies and are, you know, not batshit crazy.

Gov. Ducey congratulated Katie Hobbs yesterday. That took some guts.

[quote]If so, that’s a clean sweep of AZ state offices for Democrats, right?

That race will go to a recount, though Mayes will probably win.

Since 2009, Democrats have lost 16 Senate seats across Alaska, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. The price of their rural decline. Could lose 3 more in 2024.

NBC News projects: Jimmy Gomez (D) wins CA-34.

I thought it was already declared Republicans would get 222 seats

R363 Dems GAINED a senate seat in a midterm election (assuming GA goes as the polls project). That's unusual. Rural? The re-districting emerging from the 2020 census pretty much shift representation proportionately to suburbs and urban. Rural population still declining (though I think the 2030 census will reverse that trend).

Rural Nevada and AZ? More blue recently than historically. "Rural" Alaska re-elected a Dem representative. "Rural" Kansas and Kentucky passed pro-choice initiatives. It's more complex than your comment suggests.

Democrats’ rural problem is multi-dimensional. First, in the Trump era, rural voters are voting in numbers disproportionate to their overall population. So, although general population decline in those areas continues, the rural vote is larger than the general population of rural residents. They are fired up and voting. Second, the rural vote has gone from red to nearly unanimously Red. Democrats need to erode into the Republican margins among rural voters to win, and it’s getting harder to do that, but Pennsylvania and Wisconsin 2022 offer an illustration of how to do it. Finally, the black rural vote is both declining and voting redder than in past years. This is especially catastrophic for Democrats in the South, who have counted on a heavily black vote to win majority or heavily black districts in the South. The collapse of that vote led to Republican gains in Nc, GA, SC, and VA. At the same time, Democrats aren’t doing so great with getting urban blacks to turn out for them either.

R367 please cite sources that say rural black voters are becoming redder. I haven’t see that.

Disaster in South Carolina

Republican incumbent governor ⁦@henrymcmaster⁩ easily won re-election in South Carolina outperforming all the pre-election polls. He made his largest gains in rural Black counties while not making any improvement on Trump’s weak suburban showing. A fascinating map above!

I will never understand what rural voters find that Republican candidates can offer them. I understand rural areas lean more conservative on many social issues so they find Democrats too extreme in their non bigotry. I live in a semi rural area and talking to people they are sooo uninformed about what the Republican candidates will actually do as far as economics and several other issues. It's just engrained in them to vote that way.

One of the untold stories of this election is the GOP's large gains with rural Black voters. In no place was this more prevalent than Mississippi, where they flipped nine majority-Black counties, including Kemper County, which voted for Biden by 23%!

MS GENERIC BALLOT BELOW👇

@KimBreezy @jacobfhsmith Talk radio and Fox have increasingly radicalized rural Americans. Look at Nevada. Republican AG candidate said she wanted to hang her black opponent from a tree and they overwhelmingly went for her. Mastriano was a literal terrorist and rural Pennsylvania still went for him. But not every Black and Latin person opposes these views; some agree

According to the AP VoteCast survey, Republican House candidates got 14% of the Black vote, almost twice the 8% of the Black vote that Republicans captured in 2020 and 2018.

The difference between the percentage of Black votes that Democrats got compared to Republicans was 68 points, compared to a difference of 83 points in the 2020 election and 82 points in 2018.

This was even more pronounced among younger Black voters, ages 18-44, where the difference between percentage voting Democrat and Republican was 54 points, compared to 76 points in 2020 and 75 in 2018.

Remember when everyone said the NV and NM maps we’re gonna backfire on Dems? Here’s how that turned out:

Stupid California Democrats

help. It hasn’t always been this way. Former President Barack Obama won 43% of the rural vote in 2008 in what was an essential part of his coalition. Eight years later, those numbers dropped to 34% for Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Joe Biden improved the Democratic rural vote share by a percentage point or two in the states that mattered most, Wisconsin and Michigan, and carried the presidency. The good news is that, since former President Donald Trump was elected in 2016, a small but growing group of organizers have joined the ranks of those building Democratic power in rural communities. Those investments are beginning to pay off. The main proof is this year’s midterms: In states where Democrats won tough statewide elections November 8, they did so in part by improving their showing with rural voters.

In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer turned the rural counties of Benzie, Grand Traverse, Muskegon and Isabella blue that went red for Trump in 2020. Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman’s campaign to seize an open Senate seat prioritized narrowing the gap in rural counties, including in his home turf on the western side of the state. Fetterman succeeded in every single county along the state’s western border. According to reporting from The Daily Yonder, which covers rural issues, the Fetterman campaign outperformed Biden’s 2020 rural showing by 2.4%. This was powered in part through rural turnout. The Daily Yonder reports that the turnout gap was biggest among rural voters and that ​“Fetterman received 83% of the votes that Biden did in 2020, while Mehmet Oz garnered only 73% of the 2020 Trump vote” in rural areas.

Thanks to Rob Sand, we know what a Democratic win in Iowa looks like with modern coalitions. Democrats need massive urban margins out of the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids areas, have to make suburban inroads, and must keep rural margins down. Tough path, but Sand pulled it off.

The harsh reality is that Trump showed that many voters who voted Democratic for a while are worried about people who are different. He won them over with a very explicit "the others are a threat to us" campaign. So the Dems have to decide how hard they want those voters back.

Dane county is truly the crown jewel of the Wisconsin Democratic party. Obscene margins and obscene turnout.

Dems continue to be clueless about how to attract rural and blue-collar voters.

Ethan C7: Looking at this, some regional patterns clearly emerge, with Dems performing well in the Great Plains and Upper Midwest, while the GOP dominated in the South and (most) of the West coast.

There’s good evidence that persuasion/turnout patterns by race prob caused some of this.

The Alaska State Senate will be ruled by a 17-member bipartisan majority coalition starting in January. The 17 members (9 Democrats, 8 Republicans) consist of 85% of the 20-member Senate. This is the first coalition in the State Senate in a decade.

Sobering

We really need to invest more in North Carolina by getting the minority turnout up, as well as reaching out to young voters. I think that is what we should focus on going forward as well as cutting the margins in rural regions.

Horrible urban turnout overall in NC:

Totals canvassed today upped turnout numbers some with provisionals and more absentees: Orange: 60.1% Buncombe: 57.6%% Wake: 55.9%% Durham: 53.6% Mecklenburg 45.1%

(little ole Chatham County at 66%)

2022 US House election in Virginia by County, overall result was 51.6%D-48.2%

R376, you know most of the red on the map is desert/empty space, right?

R385 I think most of these voters don't really believe in a real election fraud and steal - I think they are just reactively responding to the tribal talking points, and "I believe there was A Steal" just means "I Hate the Other Side."

^Correct. It's JUST LIKE PROFESSIONAL WRESTLING. Pretend it really happened. Trump knows this and has worked it and worked it. It's ALL BULLSHIT. Trump has claimed "voter fraud" in EVERY election he's ever been a part of. Think about that for a sec.

The loss of black voters really needs to be understood because accommodating them underpins a lot of Democratic strategy of late. Maybe they care less about identity politics and more about other issues now? The idea of the flip to Republicans in a former Confederate state is confounding. Dems have to be missing something now. Could part of the be how old the party brass is? This is a fascinating wrinkle.

Yeah, it’s a serious problem for Democrats, and something they have to solve quickly. The erosion seems to be Among young black Americans, and it’s nationally.

And especially among young and middle age black men

R393 Cite your source. I don't think a deep dive into the data supports this.

See all the above posts and links about low black turnout

R396 Almost all the "sources" are right wing - Breitbart, Red State et. al.

There is some reduction, there is some long term trends, and the "Red Wave" predicted and expected in 2022 was a complete bust. Places that had been trending red because of this "erosion" (MI, PA, AZ, NV) - Governors and state legislators trended blue in unexpected ways.

Why?

[quote] The harsh reality is that Trump showed that many voters who voted Democratic for a while are worried about people who are different.

This started with Nixon.

Thanks r397. I asked for sources upthread, and the OP posted very, very questionable sources.

Trump just sealed the deal.

R400, what are you talking about. Most sources discussing this are liberal. Moreover, the Raleigh News and Observer did a huge story on how low black rural turnout doomed Democrats in North Carolina

On MSNBC, they just said Republicans were up this election by 8% among blacks without a college degree

College educated women actually shifted 8% toward Republicans

Maybe the rural black vote was down because the people think their votes are taken for granted? Maybe they’re like other rural voters who would like a candidate to show up and talk to them about the issues?

Idk but Fetterman did it. So did Whitmer.

For one thing, this is a Midterm election so trends can’t be accurately deciphered unless comparing to other midterms.

Hispanics started shifted hard towards Rs with W Bush, then reversed hard with Obama and Hillary.

Billionaires put huge money into specific demographics (and districts) this election to shift them to Rs. Billionaires will be our downfall.

We have got to stop being so contrarian during midterms. Divided govt doesn’t work now with Rs. Rs have gone completely batshit crazy, were the party who tried a violent coup, have zero policy to address our issues (and actively flaunt this), publicly want to destroy SS & Medicare which are beloved, want to give more money to the rich. Ds delivered hugely for the average person and shifted $4T to the lower 90% which now have more money per capita than they have in decades. You’d think voters, especially white women would stop falling for the R scare tactics they use every fucking election that disappear as soon as the election is over.

Thankfully, given all of this, this was one of the top 3 (maybe best) midterm for the party in power in 100 years except 1934.

Republicans actually won the popular national congressional vote by over 3%, while only gaining a four seat majority. That defies conventional wisdom that gerrymandering advantages Republicans

Local news repoter Greg Bluestein in GA. shows LONG lines to vote in the Walker/Warnock runoff, as voting starts today. His tweets show Athens GA (where Walker played football till 1980), but the vote is almost certainly overwhelmingly for Warnock. And Columbus, Ga., 2nd biggest city in GA., and those folks in that clip look likely to be Warnock voters to me, primarily, as well. I think it's looking pretty good for a Dem win so far. Personally, I'm going to vote tomorrow.

R406 It just means they overperformed in certain places like FL and TX which is VERY curious, and Ds underperformed in NY and CA which is VERY curious. Other than that, Ds outperformed Rs.

And those tweets in R407, about the long lines being evidence of "voter suppression," are utter horseshit. A good friend of mine just voted in Athens, where that first video was filmed, about 2 hours ago, and she texted me that the whole thing took her FIVE MINUTES. There was a huge football game happening less than half a mile away at the time, no parking spaces downtown, period, and it still took her 5 minutes. No problems.

Hope on the horizon?:

"Population loss was widespread across rural America between 2010 and 2020, with more than two-thirds of non-metropolitan counties losing population. Natural increase, which traditionally provided much of the rural population gain, diminished almost everywhere."

So this is why they're so rabidly anti-abortion?

[quote]Dems continue to be clueless about how to attract rural and blue-collar voters.

Dems refuse to cater to racist, homophobic, misogynistic pieces of shit. There, fixed it for you. Disagree? Go ahead and tell me what the Repugs do to attract the rural and blue-collar voters.

To those going on and on about the black vote, you might want to look into voter suppression of poor black people across the country, but especially in the South. Any blacks that vote Repug are going to most likely be middle class or higher. They aren't living in the areas where they took away all the polling places. It's the poor blacks. It's also the poor blacks who lack the voter ID the South now requires. Of course more blacks voted Repug because the voters allowed to vote in the elections by the restrictive and racist vote suppression laws are the middle and upper class blacks.

Rural areas are also losing hospitals, r410. They have poor infrastructure, mainly internet, no jobs (except farm work which is hard physical labor and not well paid) and no social activities.

I grew up in rural Ohio. Everyone was worried that someone was going to “take away” their “way of life”. The reality is, their own refusal to progress is what is killing their “way of life”.

No person who gets an education wants to stick around. Even those who get degrees in veterinary science or agriculture will generally live in the more developed areas.

It’s just fear. They see shit on TV or listen to reich wing radio and believe that garbage.

But they vote

I read some brilliant summary of what had happened to American geo-politics in the last couple decades - the central point: rural America has become "the South". Values, symbols, culture, politics... Example: where in Wisconsin the rural voter was socialist, anti-fascist (and Lutheran) in the 40's, now they are conservative, anti-gay, (and Evangelical). Counties in PA that sent their sons to die to preserver the Union in 1861 now drive pick-ups with the Stars and Bars.

The Dixiecratization of America. Not sure simply making the Dem party appeal to this is what is best for our country.

I’ve been saying this for years. America has become Southernized, partly because so many people have moved to the South

And partly because southern culture is so evangelical and aggressive. It spreads like wildfire

R416 Like a virus. Snakehandleria Sistercoitus virus.

Kudzu

It's due to Republican propaganda: fear, guns, and cheap sensationalist religion. The Republican Party was designed to protect wealthy business owners: lower "everyone's" taxes, and the rest of it is just hype: generate fear of anything, it doesn't really matter what. They made a big deal about abortion for 50 years. Abortion is an insignificant issue, in terms of the actual governance of the country. It's just moralistic mumbo-jumbo, and Republcans have gotten abortions just as much as anyone else, they are totally hypocritical about it. The Republicans have duped the working class into strongly supporting a political party which is TOTALLY opposed to their own best interests. It's a complete bait-and-switch operation. The Democrats don't seem smart enough to point that out to the voters in any kind of meaningful way, and it's why the US is in such danger politically right now.

Historians have been pointing out for decades that after the Democrats began to espouse civil rights and kick out white supremacists in the 40s, 50s, and 60s, the white supremacists migrated to the Republican party, which welcomed them with open arms. Thus by the 80s the parties switched places on that and related issues (but the Republicans remained plutocratic assholes and the Dems mostly kept their labor credentials).

And yet, Dems haven't learned how to battle Repug lies and bullshit. Perhaps the Lincoln Project needs to train Dem operatives on how to fight with fire.

Yeah, they've made the BEST political ads for Democrats (or just against Trump) in DECADES. Just that simple.

Exactly

The problem with the Democrats using Lincoln Project or Repug tactics is that the entirety of the conservative, Repug-owned media would attack them endlessly for doing it. The Democrats could literally put the exact same lie-filled ad out that the Repugs do and just change the names and only the Democrats would be called liars throughout all media.

Cultural issues weren’t really in politics prior to the 60s. Not like now. Most Democrats weren’t racists, but the Southern Democrats were largely due to cultural issues. On economics, they were very liberal.

After Civil Rights that coalition blew up and Southern Democrats slowly started abandoning them at that own economic peril.

Many of you forget, Republicans have great messaging and media training because billionaires have poured untold millions into a vast network of conservative think tanks and organizations. This started long ago and unfortunately when Democrats had to scramble for a winnable coalition since they were losing the last of the Southern Democrats. That put Democrats way behind the game. Luckily they had some of the most talented politicians of all time during this transition- Clinton and Obama.

[quote]Yeah, they've made the BEST political ads for Democrats (or just against Trump) in DECADES. Just that simple.

I just remember they put out one of the best tweets I've ever seen about their 2020 ads: "We go low so you don't have to."

This!

In addition to all of the reports of college students who voted today (Saturday) after the GOP sued TWICE to attempt to stop...college kids, home for Thanksgiving, from voting.

Reported on MSNBC about 4 hours ago - I think this comes from AARP but it wasn't completely clear.

Raphael 54, Herschel 39 with Independents.

Age 18-49: R 61, H 37.

Over 50: R 44 H 53.

[quote]Over 50: R 44 H 53.

Is this just old racists? It just makes no fucking sense. I'm not that far from 50 myself and I look around at these Repug morons (candidates and voters) and can't fathom what the hell they are thinking.

It's insane. Fox news? They gotta stop Nancy and Chuck from eating babies at pizza parlors, even if Herschel is the only way to do it.

City of Ann Arbor

2012: Barack Obama 46198 votes (80%) Mitt Romney: 11008 votes (20%)

2022: Gretchen Whitmer 49471 votes (90%) Tudor Dixon: 5332 votes (10%)

turnout 👀👀

NY Times: There was a lot of good news — or at least news that felt good — for Democrats this election cycle, from holding the Senate to remaining stubbornly competitive in the House.

But as more data becomes final, it’s clear that Black turnout is not one of those feel-good stories for the party.

Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times

We won’t get conclusive numbers on this for months, but the evidence so far raises the distinct possibility that the Black share of the electorate sank to its lowest level since 2006. It certainly did in states like Georgia and North Carolina, where authoritative data is already available.

The relatively low turnout numbers aren’t necessarily a surprise. After all, this was not supposed to be a good year for Democrats. Perhaps this is one of the things that went about as expected, with no reason to think it portends catastrophe for Democrats in the years ahead.

Still, relatively low Black turnout is becoming an unmistakable trend in the post-Obama era, raising important — if yet unanswered — questions about how Democrats can revitalize the enthusiasm of their strongest group of supporters.

Is it simply a return to the pre-Obama norm? Is it yet another symptom of eroding Democratic strength among working-class voters of all races and ethnicities? Or is it a byproduct of something more specific to Black voters, like the rise of a more progressive, activist — and pessimistic — Black left that doubts whether the Democratic Party can combat white supremacy?

Whatever the answer, it is clear that the relatively low Black turnout was not exactly disastrous electorally for Democrats in 2022. With the possible exception of the Wisconsin Senate race, it’s hard to identify a high-profile election where Democrats might have prevailed if the Black share of the electorate had stayed at 2014 or 2018 levels.

Well, Mitt is a lot more palatable than Tudor.

But it does help make sense of one of the stranger features of this election: how Republicans fared so well in the national vote, but routinely underperformed in critical states and districts. With the important exceptions of Georgia and North Carolina, the Black population share was below the national average in virtually all of the key districts and Senate contests.

Georgia and North Carolina are two of the states where voters indicate their race when they register to vote, offering an unusually authoritative look at the racial composition of the electorate. In both states — along with Louisiana — the Black share of the electorate fell to its lowest levels since 2006.

In all three states, the turnout rate among Black voters was far lower than among white voters. In North Carolina, for example, 43% of Black registered voters turned out, compared with 59% of white registered voters — roughly doubling the difference from 2018 and tripling the racial turnout gap from 2014.

While similarly conclusive data is not available elsewhere so far, the turnout by county suggests that a relatively weak Black turnout was a national phenomenon.

In Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit, turnout fell 10% to 12% beneath 2018 levels. At the same time, turnout increased in the rest of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Obviously, there are plenty of voters of other races and ethnicities in Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit, but the relatively lower Black turnout in these places is part of a broader nationwide pattern: In areas where Black voters represent a larger share of the population, the turnout sank by more.

The decline looms especially large in Wisconsin, where the Democrat Mandela Barnes fell 26,718 votes short of victory (1 percentage point short), even as the Democratic margin in the City of Milwaukee fell by a nearly identical 27,612 votes compared with 2018.

Barnes, who was born in Milwaukee and represented part of the city in the state Assembly, did well enough outside Milwaukee to have had a very good chance to win the state. But the city did not represent the share of the state’s electorate that it did two or four years ago.

The lower Black share of the electorate was not quite decisive in North Carolina, where the Democrat Cheri Beasley probably needed Black turnout to match or exceed white turnout share to win her Senate race (she lost by three points). It probably wasn’t decisive in the Georgia governor’s race either; Stacey Abrams lost by almost eight points. No realistic Black turnout would have been enough.

Perhaps more remarkable is that Raphael Warnock, the Democratic senator from Georgia, and Beasley fared so well, even with Black voters representing such a low share of the electorate. Warnock and Beasley appear to have fared better among non-Black voters than any Democrats in recent memory in either state.

For Warnock, the relatively low Black turnout in the general election may offer some upside in the runoff Dec. 6 against Herschel Walker.

In the 2021 runoff, the Black share of the electorate rose by enough for Warnock and Jon Ossoff to prevail, even though Republicans won the most votes in the general election two months before.

A similar increase this time, though certainly not guaranteed, might give Warnock a fairly comfortable victory.

Bump

I will not be surprised when the numbers come out from all the states, we'll see a difference in black turnout mostly located where the Repugs put in voter suppression laws.

Possibly, but black and urban turnout hasn’t been great in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Ohio either

BREAKING: Georgia just set a new early vote turnout record in history, with nearly 325,000 Georgians having cast their ballots. Even better: that's as of 6:15pm EST, which means that the number will only get bigger. This does not bode very well for Republicans.

Consider: Barnes kept up with D gains in the state's oldest R strongholds and was only really sunk by low turnout in Milwaukee. Low black turnout. He was a fine candidate, though the nationwide trends of this cycle weren't what he needed.

In IL, the state House district that includes East St. Louis flipped R due to low Black turnout. That district's only 35% Black, but Metro East whites are way less R than rural Southern whites, of course.

Someone posts about how difficult it is to vote in GA and the first comment is about how much easier her experience is in a county that votes 70% GOP.

And remember: it's still illegal to give someone a bottle of water during this cluterfuck.

[quote] Man voting in Georgia is so different than in Illinois. When I lived in chicago, during early voting, I went to the local elementary school, waited in line about ten minutes, and they gave me a sheet of paper. I checked people off then I put it in the machine and left.

[quote]Not Georgia. We drove downtown because *every* other polling place had a line >90 minutes. We paid ten bucks to park. We went in the building, then emptied out pockets to go through a metal detector. We then saw a sign about where to park to get our parking validated. Inside.

[quote] We then waited in line ~80 minutes. We got to the end and we were given a form to fill out (?). We were told *not* to sign it until told. Then we were moved into a waiting room where we were given a ticket number, like when you are at the dmv.

[quote] We were told to get our IDs out and wait. We waited here for 15-20 minutes. When your number is called they took your form, did some stuff on the computer, then told you to sign the form. Then you get a little green card. You insert it into the machine.

[quote] Then you go through three or four prompts, including a very serious™️ warning about perjury, a totally necessary warning given how huge a problem stolen identity is for the purposes of voting on behalf of someone else.

[quote] You then finally vote, and after an “are you sure” prompt you get a sheet. You then have to walk the sheet over to feed it into a machine. About half of these were working.

[quote] The bottleneck was clearly the weird application and waiting room thing. There are two dozen people at a time sitting to have their stuffed checked. Think of it as regular voting except when you got there they had to run a credit check for *each person* like you need financing.

[quote] It was easier finishing my PhD paperwork. Thankful for the kind people (nearly all black women) the shepherded the processes. But man if you are poor or disabled or whatever, good luck yo. That should have been easier. We finished tho.

Republicans tried everything to keep Georgians from voting. But get this: 1,852,593 Georgians cast their ballots during the early voting period & turnout shattered early vote records. Good news, but I’m not stopping—& neither should you. We must keep fighting until the end.

[quote] Though the governor was not implicated in the case, the cloud of scandal it created lingered over her re-election campaign for months. Finding a replacement for Mr. Benjamin as lieutenant governor also set off a chain of events that some Democrats believe cost them a crucial Hudson Valley congressional seat.

Mr. Benjamin still faces trial on two other counts — charges that he falsified records, including a vetting questionnaire related to his appointment as lieutenant governor — that the judge allowed to stand.

Bump

I wonder if Georgia is one of the states where they can't do anything with the early or mail-in ballots till the end of the Tuesday main voting day. If it is, we may have another week - I'm worn out with this one.

With these demos it's pretty amazing that Budd only won by 3.23%. The NC electorate was old and white.

Over the past two decades, North Carolina has seen distinctive trends when it comes to turnout rates by party registration: registered Republicans have the highest turnout rates, with registered Democrats typically at the state turnout rate and registered Unaffiliateds lagging behind.

In 2022's mid-term election, this pattern held yet again, one that has been consistent since 2010: registered Republicans saw a 58.4 percent turnout, while registered Democrats were at 51.2, and registered Unaffiliateds were at 44.7 percent.

We lost CA-13, the last race to be called by approximately 500 votes. Fuck. CA really disappointed us. Expect billionaires to further target CA & NY with big money.

Yep

[quote]In 2022's mid-term election, this pattern held yet again, one that has been consistent since 2010: registered Republicans saw a 58.4 percent turnout, while registered Democrats were at 51.2, and registered Unaffiliateds were at 44.7 percent.

But how much of that is due to 'Oh, you're black and/or poor, you're going to have to use this provisional ballot that we will then discard due to a misplaced comma'? Or, 'Hm, we just don't seem to have your name on our list...this must not be your polling place'? Outliers in trends are outliers for a reason and this is North Carolina.

updated McCarthy whip count:

-4 hard nos -1 very likely no

All 5 say they won't vote "present." If they follow through and all Dems vote, McCarthy is short.

R454, I'll believe it when I see it. Probably all show to then have him heroically emerge victorious. This is the American media afterall.

R453, that’s a tired and erroneous explanation. Black, urban, Democratic, and young voters turned out at levels on par with Republicans in NC in 2008. Since then, they haven’t show up anywhere near those levels. It’s a matter of the Democratic base not voting

This is most police. They’re radicalized right wing trash.

66% of the Georgia vote is in and Herschel Walker is winning...

R458 Dekalb Co is only 5% in. Relax.

Warnock wins.

The best is knowing the likes of Ted and Linz will have far, far less power with just one extra D vote.

AZ now has a complete statewide D slate. Biden won it two years ago.

GA has two D Senators, and Biden won in two years ago.

Democrats flipped one Senate seat, didn’t lost any seats (first for any president in the first midterm since the Greatest FDR).

Democrats flipped 3 Govs.

Democrats flipped numerous state legs, flipped seats in many other seats. Not so much for Republicans.

Democrats flipped a Secretary of State and Attorney General while not losing any.

They only lost a very small number of House seats (while flipping 6).

All in a midterm year in the first year as the party in power. This is the best midterm result in 100 years except for 1934.

Feel very good about this despite the closeness of some races.

^Bring on MORE Republican crazies!

Brooklyn had the third-worst voter turnout of any county in the state, ahead of only Queens and the Bronx, and well behind Manhattan and Staten Island.

Turnout by Republicans Was Great. It’s Just That Many of Them Didn’t Vote for Republicans.

Texas needs greater investment in organizing for voter registration and turnout.

In this cycle, 9.6 million registered Texans did not vote (a record!) and another 1.4 million are eligible but not registered. That’s 11 million Texans who are sitting on the sidelines.

Voting should be mandatory.

I was watching this Australaian guy on youtube and he said the fine there for not voting is about $60

To he'll with just a money fine. How about 10 days in jail?

While I don't agree, but shouldn't freedom be the right to not vote if one chooses?

No, R471, just like paying taxes is not a choice. It's something you must do as a citizen of a nation in order for that nation to properly function. There can be a 'none of the above' option but you still have to vote.

We now have 6 states with 2022 vote history. In 6 of those 6 states the youth vote share exceeded 2014. In 2 of 6 the youth share incredibly exceeded the "blue wave" 2018 share. In every state but CO the youth share was closer to '18 than '14. Youth turnout was strong.

[quote]We now have 6 states with 2022 vote history. In 6 of those 6 states the youth vote share exceeded 2014. In 2 of 6 the youth share incredibly exceeded the "blue wave" 2018 share. In every state but CO the youth share was closer to '18 than '14. Youth turnout was strong.

RAISE THE VOTING AGE!!!

Florida, California, and New York explain how Republicans won popular House vote by about 3%

The minimum age is 16 in Argentina, Austria, Brazil, Cuba, Ecuador, Malta, Nicaragua, Scotland and Wales, and the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey (three self-governing British Crown Dependencies).

The highest minimum voting age is 21 in several nations (couldn't figure out how to look that up - at least quickly)

Will they ever learn that part of the reason they're not taken seriously is that they don't understand that facts matter?

[quote] Republican Congressman-elect George Santos liked tweets claiming to be “the first gay Republican elected to a Congress in American history.”

[quote] Fact check: Steve Gunderson (R-WI), who won re-election in 1994, was first openly gay Republican to be elected to Congress.

With every county in PA now fully certified, this is the final breakdown of #PASen.

Fetterman: 51.3% (2,751,012) Oz: 46.3% (2,487,260)

Fetterman wins by 5 and cements his place as the best-performing Dem battleground candidate this cycle, beating out Kelly and Warnock.

Beasley could have won if Democrats in North Carolina actually turned out to vote. Democrats keep losing elections in NC by 1-3%, even with abysmal turnout. Meanwhile Republicans keep storming the polls and voting like their life is on the ballot

An analysis from the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections found that “in the five closest GOP wins in the country, the victorious Republican candidates outpaced their Democratic opponents by a combined 6,670 votes.” In other words, had a relative handful of votes shifted in a relative handful of districts, Democrats could have held the House.

While Democrats outperformed in 2022 sufficiently to avoid the worst effects of the historic midterm falloff phenomenon, the party’s overall vote total in 2022 was down by roughly 9.1 million from 2018. On the other hand, the Republicans saw their vote total rise by roughly 3.6 million from 2018 to 2022.

If Democrats had been able to mobilize their voters as effectively in 2022 as they did in 2018, or if they had simply averted a larger proportion of the drop-off, their chances of keeping the House would have dramatically improved. That’s not something that can be undone in 2022. But it is something Democrats should be thinking about as they advance toward the presidential and congressional elections of 2024 and the midterm congressional elections of 2026.

[quote]But it is something Democrats should be thinking about as they advance toward the presidential and congressional elections of 2024 and the midterm congressional elections of 2026.

If, if, if! How interesting it is that Democrats realized nearly at the end of the last election cycle that they have a messaging issue? Well... HELLO! But what are they doing about it? IMHO, Democrats NEED to have a long and deep talk with Stacy Abrams and her people in order to learn what they did and can (well, it must be) replicated! Democrats should not be resting on their laurels. If there was ever a time to fight back offensively that time is RIGHT NOW! Thanks for the numbers R481 but that might be the Democrats problem. They rely far too much on the numbers rather than getting out on the streets and actually doing the grunt work.

You can’t compare 2018 to 2022. Regardless of which party controls the WH and how popular they are, in the 1st term the president’s party losing an avg of 40 seats in the 1st midterm. It’s fair to say, had Democrats gotten what was expected in NY and CA, they’d held the House. Comparing midterms needs context. Despite all the history saying this was going to be brutal for Democrats, it was the best showing for the president’s party since 1934.

Democrats cleaned up in all parts of the country except FL, TX, NY, CA. Historic holds, flips, in all levels of government.

-net gain in Govs -flipped state leges, didn’t lose any -net gain in the senate -net gain in SoS -net gain in AG -held AG and SoS in all states

Truly repudiation of republicans.

Yet, isn't it funny, R483, that it is being spun as something Democrats need to fix by the media?

R484 Democrats successfully messaged in many parts of the country. Look at those badass MI women! MN went hard Blue again. Democrats gained in heavily gerrymandered WI.

We now control all statewide offices in Ari -freaking- zona! Won GA AGAIN.

The media needs to fix itself. Democrats are horribly outspent in dark money. The media ignores this. Billionaires flipped the fuck out over being taxed and went hard at Democrats this election. And lost.

The media treats todays Republican Party as if it were just a normal, sane ideology. It’s not

The both sides mess is reckless

[quote] The media treats todays Republican Party

Oh dear twice!

More!

Biden only got 16% of the White evangelical vote in 2020. Six points lower than Obama in 2008.

And, Biden did 11 points worse with Black evangelicals in 2020 vs Obama in 2008. That seems like a trend worth tracking.

Clinton did surprisingly well with Hispanic evangelicals.

Yet won by more votes. Seems evangelicals are a shrinking POS group. Good.

White Evangelicals are declining in overall numbers, but they Vote more faithfully than the rest of the population and as a very loyal bloc. Moreover, the growing tendency of black and Latin Evangelicals to vote Republican is further strengthening evangelical power, especially in key swing states like North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa.

R492 They aren’t getting the evangelical black and Hispanic vote yet. They’re trying.

2006 was a true blue wave year, with Democrats defending every Senate seat they had and picking up several additional seats in states like PA, VA, OH, and MT. 2018 was expected to be another blue wave, but Democrats in FL, ND, MO, and IN actually lost reelection.

R493, they are increasingly getting a larger share of the brown and black evangelical vote

R494, we can thank Howard Dean and the 50-state strategy for 2006. But Obama and Rahm deemed it too expensive and pointless.

There is a middle ground that believes Democrats should eventually compete everywhere, but also acknowledges limited resources shouldn’t be spent in places where Democrats currently have a near zero chance of winning. Yes, I want Democrats to try to win Alabama, but the reality is that no amount of money or great candy dares currently will turn that state blue, or even purple.

I think we could compete in some places in Alabama and especially Mississippi (I know!) if we could get our shit together and work at registering people to vote and then getting those people out to vote.

Certainly when a real effort is made in Alabama to get the Democratic vote out, it comes out and wins. That happened in 2017, when Roy Moore was too deplorable even for Alabama: blacks and non-evangelical whites overwhelmingly went for Doug Jones, and because they turned out so heavily (thanks to the Democratic ground game largely run by black women), the white fundy masses couldn't get Roy over the top. But since the Supreme Court is letting Jim Crow come back, it's an uphill battle.

R499, that was an extraordinary circumstance wherein a radical loudmouth had a sex scandal involving underage propositioning. And he still almost won. Don’t rely on flukes to establish political reality

Not relying on flukes at all; what it showed was that when Democrats organize even in a deeply Republican state they can win against a flagrantly awful Republican. Of course this is rare, but it demonstrates what needs to be done.

Citizens United changed the game in republicans favor enormously especially in state wide races. Democrats are outspent regularly by huge sums every election. That dark money flows to republicans.

Not true. Hillary raised much more money than Trump.

R503 That doesn’t account for dark untraceable money.

monthly reminder that the Oregon GOP basically had everything going in their favor last year and still got thrashed. no governor. no senate. no house.