OSCAR RACE 2022: First Look

Fuck. They're gonna give Oscars to Will Smith and Nikki Kidman, aren't they? Nicole's plastic-dump face as Lucille Ball? It's hot garbage, but Oscar Gold! Jessica Chastain will surely get a nomination as Tammy Faye, even if the film is widely inaccurate.

Meanwhile, we all know I'll be snubbed again, possibly for that cunt Frances McD again. She won't even be nominated. She'll just show up in another burlap dress, assualt the door guards, and snatch the statch right out of Olivia Colman's shocked hands onstage.

I certainly never thought I'd see the day when Simon Rex was listed as an Oscar front-runner.

R1, maybe your odds would be better if you considered taking a dump in a bucket, G.

R3 Or maybe if I fucked a mainstream director who cast me in all of his projects for 40 years, I'd win as many awards as you have, ya ugly skank! Joel's gonna run away someday and write a Tina Turner-style tell-all about your marriage, isn't he? We all know who's beating whom in that family!

With all that is yet to be seen, I’d be surprised if they average two in each category match Oscar nominations. You can bet good money Simon Rex will not be among them

Glenn what's happening with your Sunset Boulevard movie? You'd be a shoo-in to win playing Norma..

[quote] Glenn what's happening with your Sunset Boulevard movie?

She got downgraded to its less glamorous cousin film -- Normandie Avenue.

ROFL Scott Feinberg is the busiest studio cocksucker. Nobody expects Dune to get above the line nominations.

In all likelihood, this is going to be a very weak year and I would say no more than five yet-to-screen films will end up being competitive for above the line. Almost everything deemed award worthy has already premiered at the September festivals.

This list was compiled before the author got his sizable check from Marc Platt.

Dune is very much going to be in BP and BD races.

I don't think that much of Will Smith as an actor, but for the sake of the Academy, I want the guy to win Best Actor. After a couple glum ceremonies where the Academy has basically apologized for existing, they need to give awards to a massive movie star who is going to have a blast accepting all the prizes people throw at him.

Smith could bring back some much-needed fun to awards season, which is ironic considering it was his wife who helped suck all the joy out of it just a few years back.

I'd like to see Olivia win again, or Chastain as Tammy Faye.

This is listed in the possibilities section of films and looks very stunning visually and takes us back to Italy in the 1980s ala CMBYN.

This sounds chilling and heartbreaking, present day Gay Afghan refugee about to marry carries a deep dark secret. It’s listed as a long shot, but it sounds like it could slip in as documentary, foreign language or animation slots as well.

Wow, the real Amin, R14, is a very hot daddy too!

Sorry, disregard R15, after reading a review the name Amin is a pseudonym and his identity is protected for various reasons.

How is In The Heights still listed as a possibility? That movie was DOA when it was released.

Will there be a ceremony? Everyone in masks 6ft. apart? Red carpet commentary by drone?

R18 Well, if it was in a train station for this year, I’m predicting it will be held in an airplane hangar this next time around.

r18, I presume it will be like the Emmys and the Met Ball: all the stars unmasked and comfortably intermingling while the lessor beings doing all the work will be forced to mask up.

R20 Well the closeted Hollywood gays will also be mascing up too!

Feinberg Forecast: First Look at the Oscar Race:

No matter good Jamie Dornan is in Belfast, I guarantee that if he’s nominated, the Twitter consensus will be that he really should have been nominated for Barb & Star instead.

And Belfast does seem like it’ll check all the boxes for Best Picture.

No nom for Sigourney?

Why even put out this list? The number of films not yet seen is too long to take the current list seriously.

[quote]maybe your odds would be better if you considered taking a dump in a bucket, G.

I told Ron Howard Memaw should do that shit in a bucket schtick, but he insisted on keeping things classy with an outhouse.

[R22], that still from WSS may be the single most unexciting photograph I've ever seen. And what era is it in? WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE???

Does Ansel show his nude fartbox in WSS? What a pointless remake

Let’s got KStew let’s go!

THR reviews "The Tragedy of Macbeth":

"Dear Evan Hansen" will sweet every award giving Ben Platt his EGOT.

I have no faith whatsoever in the Coens' ability to do Shakespeare.

Whew. That THR review at r30 has me sold. I'll see "The Tragedy of Macbeth".

“The Tragedy of Macbeth” sounds great…acting Oscar #4 for Frances???

It's so wild to see Corey Hawkins simply vanish from a bad wig-wearing role on TWD to getting great reviews in a Coenbro film.

Movies are terrible. Even Marriage Story seems good now, in comparison.

R36 I remember how hyped Marriage Story was. It was a massive disappointment and could have been a so-so TV movie. Added absolutely nothing new and why in hell did Laura Dern get an Oscar for playing some ballsy lawyer who exploits her client? It's one of the weakest wins of the last 30 years because the writing gives her nothing to play with.

Marriage Story is one of the top 5 poorest Criterion Collection releases

I never understand on Feinberg’s list when he has films listed as “Still To See” that have been out for months - like Zola. He should’ve seen that by now. It’s almost like “Homework Still To Do”. I like Scott Feinberg - esp. the podcast - but that just seems poor. It’s not like some of those films are unavailable.

[quote]why in hell did Laura Dern get an Oscar for playing some ballsy lawyer who exploits her client? It's one of the weakest wins of the last 30 years because the writing gives her nothing to play with.

Don't agree, when Dern shows up is the only time the movie came alive. I'd watch a whole movie about that character's exploits.

[quote] It's one of the weakest wins of the last 30 years because the writing gives her nothing to play with.

I'd argue this applies more to Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk. That win was a complete head-scratcher to me.

The problem with Macbeth is that no one as good looking as Denzel would marry anyone as fugly as Frances. At best she would be Macbeth’s maid.

Jayne Houdyshell will not only be nominated for Best Supporting Actress for The Humans she’ll win in a landslide.

Modern media: time to kill and space to fill. Most of the films have yet to be released or seen.

How will the DL handle it if the BA race comes to KStew V Gaga?

That Gucci film looks like a total shitfest so we probably won't have to worry about it.

Kristen can act. Gaga is more a performer.

R43, the thing about a Jayne Houdyshell nomination, much less win, is that there are a ton of actresses who want that Oscar, have far more backing behind them and are likely far more competitive than Ms. Houdyshell is used to being. It's not just about the work; in that category in particular - usually full of young ambitious actresses, it's more like stepping into a boxing ring. Good luck to her, I hope she can get a foot hold in the competition. The Humans is already seen as a long-shot "indie" niche entry into the race that may or may not get a foothold depending on audience reaction.

I went to a screening of The Eyes of Tammy Faye and have to say Chastain is excellent in it. Might seem funny to say, but it's a subtle performance. Tbh I hope she wins for it. She gave a talk after I was so impressed with her. Very smart person.

Can we have the dick sizes with the male nominees this year?

R45, Gaga attended the crazy exclusive, ultra A list opening of the newly christened Academy Museum tonight.

She sang a bunch of songs and interacted with the audience while singing. Crowd ate her up.

Cher, Brad Pitt and about 100 other big time Academy members were there.

She is in full campaign mode already. Whether Gucci sucks or not, she's gonna do everything to get another nom.

Gotta love that about her. She tries, dammit.

R48, have you read the reviews out of Toronto for her performance? She’s a lock for the nomination and will win the damn thing, too.

[quote]The problem with Macbeth is that no one as good looking as Denzel would marry anyone as fugly as Frances. At best she would be Macbeth’s maid.

Stop thinking like a straight guy, you suck at. There were no real Disney Princess, no make-up counters and beauty salons. Women were as plain as day.

I hope they don’t overlook Simon Rex. I think that’s such a great story that he came back and gave an award winning performance.

The Oscars are so snooty though so I don’t see it happening. I think it’s cause a lot of the voting members are so ancient and old.

Simon Rex hasn’t won any awards for that performance. There were walkouts at Telluride.

C'mon C'mon has my interest. The trailer is lovely.

I thought Beginners was a bit cringe but I loved 20th C Women. Looking fwd to C’mon C’mon too.

R53 Gruoch was about 20 years younger than Macbeth historically.

RED ROCKET is like Porky’s meets Boogie Nights with a dash of John Waters……….but Simon Rex was terrific. It is not for the prude or uptight….the characters are all pretty rough and gritty…..I enjoyed it. I thought Jamie Dornan was superb in BELFAST…….KStew is on another level in SPENCER (I saw the film twice at Telluride) and it is a dark film. Benedict Cumberbatch is pretty terrifying in POWER OF THE DOG and Kirsten Dunst deserves recognition for her role. I normally can’t stand Will Smith but he is outstanding in KING RICHARD. C’MON C’MON was life affirming and Joaquin Phoenix turns in one of his best performances of his career. Telluride had a very strong program this year……….the one film that I have seen this fall outside the festival bubble is DEAR EVAN HANSEN and it was disappointing in so many ways……..

Trailer for Licorice Pizza from Oscar fave Paul Thomas Anderson:

Thanks you for your above report from the festival. Love this type of stuff! I am such an Oscar fan. I know it sounds silly but I really look forward to them and all the discussion.

Btw where did you see the house of Gucci reviews?

Licorice Pizza looks awful based on that trailer.

Jake G’s new thriller, The Guilty, opens this weekend. He’s the entire movie as a 911 operator dealing with a kidnapping. Oscar nom?

Apparently The Guilty is not great. The original is fantastic but apparently this one doesn't work. Too obvious.

Licorice Pizza looks very promising based on that trailer.

I’m on the SAG Nominating Committee this year and we’re going to screenings of four films in a row directed by women-Bergman Island, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog and Passing. That’s pretty cool.

Well you learn something new everyday. I was a theater manager for a long time in teh east and here is a shot from the movie. It takes place in the 70's ( before my movie time) and I have never head the term "Second Showing" on the marquee. Is that California speak for double feature?

Went to screening of The Lost Daughter tonight. I guess it’s possible Olivia Colman will be nominated for Best Actress but I’d really love it if Jessie Buckley got a Supporting Actress nomination for playing Colman’s character 25 years earlier.

Alana Haim. What a face.

Big Olivia is a lock for Best Actress nomination

R71 That gummie Brit already has MY OSCAR. She doesn't need another one.

Don’t worry, Glennie, she probably won’t get it.

Went to a screening of Passing last night. I can see them placing Tessa Thompson in the Best Actress category since her character is undoubtedly the central one. She’s in virtually every scene. Ruth Negga being placed in Supporting wouldn’t be category fraud because her character is in no way equal to Thompson’s in terms of screen time and impact.

Trailer for Red Rocket featuring Oscar-worthy Simon Rex:

Oh my. Peter Dinklage for te win.

Except for it being absolutely a no-brainer to choose between Jessie Buckley and Dakota Johnson for Supporting for The Lost Daughter (it’s quite obviously Buckley) this guy’s got some good picks:

’Scuse Me, Sir, Can I Interest You in Some Oscars?

Sorry, the ten nominees for Best Picture destroyed the specialness of the Oscars. For fifty years it was five nominees. That was it, you didn't make the cut, too bad for you. Or something out of the blue like "Babe" makes the cut and the masses are happy. The now "everyone gets a trophy who shows up" mentality won.

The ten nominees along with the preferred voting has resulted in greater discrepancy between Best Picture and Best Director: from 1945 (when Picture was set at 5 nominees) to 2009 (the last year before it expanded to 10), there was rarely a split between the two categories, happening only 13 times in 64 years; in the 11 years since the category expanded, it's happened 5 times.

R80, I think you’re right about the preferential voting, and it hasn’t helped that the Directors branch become more elitist and international while the Acting branch (which is still the largest) became more populist.

When you look at the list of new members and the acting branch adds the Marvel Chrises plus the Wayans brothers, while the directors add Apichatpong Weerasethakul, they’re not going to find an easy consensus choice,

Is Daniel Craig a possibility? He's getting great notices.

Nope.

I don't mean a win but a nomination. I know he's getting A Golden Globe nom.

I thought the Globes were canceled this season?

No, R85, just not being telecast on NBC.

I don't know if they're canceled but do know they're not airing on NBC.

Deadline gives Clooney directed "The Tender Bar" a rave. Perhaps nominations for Clooney, Ben Affleck & Lily Rabe.

Pete Hammond always gives out raves. He’s a joke.

R88, THR liked it also:

what about ciaran hinds?

Seeing The Tender Bar Wednesday, I’ll tell you what I thought.

West Side Story looks so visually underwhelming. The original was just bursting with colors, especially in the opening sequence. This just looks so blah in comparison.

But I have a feeling because it's Spielberg, he will get in.

I hope Jamie Lee Curtis finally gets a nomination.

She was snubbed for True Lies, Freaky Friday and 2018's Halloween. It would be nice for her to get in once.

And Trading Places, R94.

I forgot Trading Places and Fish Called Wanda.

I never thought I'd say it, but at this point who cares about the fucking Oscars?

Or the rest of the pack of inane, mind-sucking, nasty and pompous "awards" for performance in any medium.

Except porn and Miss Teen USA. At least those are still sublimely absurd in the right way.

But I don't think that Jamie Lee, the Baroness Haden-Guest, the Right Honourable The Lady Haden-Guest, is among the nuts who believe she was "snubbed" for "True Lies," "Freaky Friday," "Trading Places" or any "Halloween" she was in. What silly people here.

Her mother certainly deserved more nominations than the one she received for "Psycho." And I like Jamie Lee a lot and appreciate her.

Is there any buzz for Ben Affleck in The Last Duel? Saw it yesterday and aside from likely consideration for sets and costumes, Affleck steals the movie as a foppish, hedonistic count. It reminds of similar scene-stealing nominated/winning performances like Peter Ustinov in Quo Vadis and Hugh Griffith in Ben-Hur.

R98, I recently went to a screening of The Tender Bar-it looks much more likely that Affleck will get a Supporting nomination for that role.

Dune may get technical awards, costumes and visual effects. But that should be it.

Thanks, r99. I'm only vaguely aware of that film, wasn't sure if he was lead or supporting in it.

He’s definitely supporting in The Tender Bar. The male lead in that is Tye Sheridan.

From the Vulture article, discussion of Best Actress contenders:

[quote]What about real-life people? Besides Stewart and Chastain, there’s also Jennifer Hudson in Respect, Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos, and technically Lady Gaga in House of Gucci, though in that case the entire cast looks to be playing less “real people” and more “anthropomorphic mozzarella sticks.”[/quote]

I thought that the early buzz on House of Gucci was that it was ridiculously bad?

I'm posting this story just to say I can't believe Dawn Hudson is 65.

Feinberg Forecast: The Oscars Landscape in Mid-October:

R104, do you think describing the characters as “anthropomorphic mozzarella sticks" a good review?

Driver is out of contention now. He'll have to try again next year w/ the three strikes of Annette, The Last Duel and taking a backseat in The House of Gucci.

Next!

Feinberg is a little off his rocker. I can't believe he's including the child from Belfast as a frontrunner for Best Actor. That's never going to happen. I think his Best Director frontrunners are way off as well, likely only 2 of them will make the final cut (Campion and Branaugh).

Do you think Feinberg reads DL? Interesting that he's changed his sub-heading to "Still To See or Cannot Comment Yet". That's new, isn't it? After we called him out on that upthread.

Has anyone seen Coda? It looks so uninteresting to me, I'm surprised to see it listed as a frontrunner.

Feinberg has never been that good at predicting the nominations, especially this far out. And I agree that listing the kid from Belfast that high is stupid. Even if the movie sweeps the entire Oscar season, Academy voters essentially don't nominate male children for Oscars, especially for Best Actor. (They're more likely to nominate girls, and even that isn't common).

CODA is a nice, solid heart-warmer, but I think it's ultimately too predictable, and the fact that it's on Apple TV really hurts the film. Searchlight could probably make the movie happen, but not Apple. It's only real shot is Marlee Matlin in Supporting Actress.

Wait, is the guy from Coda they are talking about Daniel Durant? He was in Arden’s Spring Awakening and I can tell you there are few actors, hearing or not, that have that level of charisma and stage presence that he held as an actor. He was mesmerizing and as Moritz definitely outshone the actor, Kevin from Glee’s boyfriend, the same way J.J. Gallagher outshone Groff. I would not count him out for a nomination if he’s doing the same level of work he did on stage. He also had many scenes with Matlee as well, so if they are connected in the movie there’s a history and emotional foundation for them to pull from that could be powerful.

I think COVID makes Feinberg's job much more difficult because there just aren't the same number of in person screenings and events by which to gauge the race which, also, is elongated this year given the later date for the ceremony.

I would love to have his job, though.

Went to screening of Paolo Sorrentino film The Hand of God. Just OK. The teen lead is fine. The stand-out for me was the gorgeous lady playing the tragic Patrizia. She’s naked a lot. I wouldn’t rule out her possibly getting a Supporting Actress nomination. The 25ish older brother is hot. His extremely affectionate, huggy relationship with the younger brother is sweet. And when this ends up on Netflix in December I can see myself rubbing one out in a scene where he’s in tighty whities-nice body and hot bare feets.

[boldAGATHE ROUSSELLE[/bold] must win from the movie TITANE!!!!

[bold]AGATHE ROUSSELLE[/bold] must win from the movie TITANE!!!!

Has anyone seen Benediction with Jack Lowden as Siegfried Sassoon? Is it in the running? Or being held until next year?

R102, are you sure about that? From the trailer, it looks like Affleck has more screen time, and could be considered co-lead.

I don't know anybody who still thinks the Oscars are a big deal.

Yes, R119, I’m positive. I saw the film. He’ll be in Supporting. If he’s in Lead it would be serious category fraud. He’s not playing the central character.

R120 I think the constant political speeches turned off many people. Also, when they installed that POC/trans quota thing last fall. SJWs are killjoys and ruining everything that was traditional and fun(ny). I especially hate what they have done to the Golden Globes. Those were always fun.

Definitely r122. The Oscars became an HR Diversity Seminar. People tuned out in droves.

The last two Oscars have been woke to the point of embarrassment. And next year’s will be no different.

R120, it's not the award, it's about all the promotion.

R124, people who use the word "woke" are embarassing.

R126, what word do you suggest we use to describe people who insist on making identitarianism paramount, negatively impacting their view of the world, and demanding that others go along with it?

The Television Academy clearly looked at the record low Oscar ratings and decided to do Emmys So White to boost ratings.

Wouldn’t surprise me. And hey, it worked.

Stewart is the Best Actress frontrunner and my guess will remain so until the end. No one seems to be able to get the buzz she's received, this is probably her year. If she's still sitting pole position at Thanksgiving, she'll likely still be there when voting starts.

Best Actor at this point is a three-way run between Will Smith, Denzel, and Cumberbatch. Smith is getting most of the buzz now, but it's still early. I wonder if Denzel will campaign and if Apple will put resources behind it.

Supporting Actor/Actress is where the real suspense is this year. Actress is wide open, Dowd and Dunst are getting the spotlight now but there are a lot more performances to vet.

If Stewart wins, would that be considered a "woke" win? Isn't she openly bisexual?

Not, r131, if she defeats a black, er, I mean, POC actress. Are there any in the running?

R130, I’ve seen Power of the Dog. No way will Dunst be considered a major contender for her passive role. Ann Dowd, Martha Plimpton, Jessie Buckkey and Jayne Houdyshell will be in the mix for sure. Dowd and Plimpton should be in the lead category, though.

Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Read of the Oscar Race Heading Into November:

Who keeps posting Scott Feinberg? His column is useless because so many of his “still to see/can’t comment yet” are going to be real contenders.

He also lists The Hand of God as a frontrunner for Best Picture and that ain’t gonna happen. I saw it last week. At best it will be a long shot.

I post them, R135, really just for the sole purpose of bumping the thread but personally I agree with you that the info doesn't really change in any significant way from one forecast to the next.

Maybe this thread should have been called “Oscar Rage?”

Its all a money racket

I just saw a new trailer for House of Gucci. It focuses heavily on Gaga. Hate to say it, but she seems to nail it.

No idea if it'll be Oscar worthy, but I can't wait to see it.

Looking forward to seeing Spencer Tuesday night.

They should give Frances McDormand another one just to irritate her. She seems to hate the whole process yet they keep handing them to her. She's like Hepburn that way.

Bette Davis should've won four Oscars instead of Hepburn.

r141 she dies at the end

As I'm not in the running this year I don't think there will be any interest in the Oscars.

R144, you’re worse than Hitler.

In a theater I saw the trailer for WSS....tired beyond words.

Despite naysayers here, apparently Dunst is pulling out front.

R145: I’ll get my fourth acting Oscar (5th overall) and then Joel and I will add that to my two emmys and my tony (you’re too much of a coward to do Broadway). In the words of Kate Hepburn, you’ll never catch me now!

R148, well I’ve seen Dunst in Power of the Dog and good as she is the only way she gets a nomination is if she’s part of a sweep. Her role is extremely limited. Her character starts out as a resourceful, smart woman but ends up being reduced to a pathetic alcoholic. And it’s much more a supporting performance than a leading one. The only lead in the film is Cumberbatch.

Just at screening of Spencer. Sometimes pretentious as hell and the discordant musical score was annoying but a lot of it works. Stewart was a mixed bag for ms-some wonderful moments during close-ups and she’s silent but during dialogue scenes she’s too often struggling with the accent and comes off as play acting. But she does have some terrific moments, especially in a great scene with the excellent child actors who play William and Harry. Stewart’s a slam dunk for a nomination. And Sally Hawkins is, too-she’s superb in a role which defines the supporting actress category. This one will be an awards contender, for sure.

Does Stewart's butchness show thru? She seems like an odd choice for the ultra feminine Di.

R152, no, not really. Physically she’s fine for Diana. No facial similarities but at least she appears somewhat tall like Diana was. Naomi Watts was a ridiculous choice for Diane, she’s 5’3” and Diana was, what, 5’10”? And Diana’s height always played a big part in her awkward attitude. This film goes pretty far in showing us that Diana was in real mental and emotional trouble, although there’s actually a “happy ending.”

The CNN documentary running on Diana is interesting. Next week it seems to be showing the negative side of her. The previews show the experts discussing how towards the end she was "addicted to her celebrity" and despite the protests she needed the paps and the attention.

Spoil the ending r153! How does it end happily? It must not be her whole life.

R154, it takes place over three days in 1991-Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day. The “happy ending” involves Diana and “her boys” but I don’t want to spoil it completely by revealing what exactly happens. My only clue is it’s finger lickin’ good.

1991? That makes me less interested in the film. The story only got really juicy around 1993 and the Martin Bashir interview.

It’s plenty juicy, R156. It gets into her eating disorder and how the royal family and its archaic, mean spirited system was suffocating her.

I just don't care this year.

Ugh, this looks so taut.

I just watched the trailer at r159. Damn, that is one ugly cast! And is Smit Cody-McPhee or whatever his name is in the process of transitioning?

Power Of the Dog was a good movie.

It’s excellent. Best one I’ve seen so far. The other really good one is Spencer. That surprised me. I expected to hate it. I couldn’t stand the director’s film on Jackie O.

Gross. Streep revving up her Oscar campaign in today's NYTs. It's so unseemly, her grubbing for a nomination. Pretending she's never seen The Real Housewives except when her girls are home and they'd she'd never do her hair this way or that. Vomit. Couldn't get through it.

Is Meryl a lead or supporting in her film?

Would she really want another supporting one? I doubt it.

I believe she's never seen the housewives. My mother and her friends are around Streep's age. I've never heard them mention it.

What is Streep's movie?

something with Leonardo DiCaprio I think. I think she might play the president? I don't know.

Don't Look Up with Leo and JLaw.

Is this the sequel to Marvin’s Room?

Can anyone cut and paste the Meryl Streep article from the Times?

don't you get at least a few free articles per month anymore?

(I'm not paying them a dime. My enemy works there.---or did. He seems to have not written anything since the pandemic. hee-hee...evil cackle.)

Got DVD for Mass. They’re putting the four leads up for consideration in the supporting categories. Uh uh. That pisses me off. They’re all LEADS. So I’m not selecting any of them for the supporting categories but will probably include them in the Best Cast one.

MASS sounds like a bloodier GOD OF CARNAGE.

Martha Plimpton is the standout from Mass for me. I would love to see her nominated. Jason Isaacs as her husband is my second favorite. His big monologue is gut-wrenching and is a very “Oscar-y” moment.

Cherry Jones in The Eyes of Tammy Faye is my dark horse pick for a Best Supporting Actress nomination.

Spencer flopped this weekend, while The French Dispatch continues to do well.

This shouldn't be surprising. No matter how much the critics try to convince art house audiences that Kristen Stewart is a great actress, they still remain unconvinced. Wes Anderson, though, has a very loyal audience even when the reviews aren't at the level of something like Grand Budapest Hotel.

Cumberbatch’s official Oscar campaigning kicked off today.

I think Dune will be the surprise snub for Best Picture. It's underperforming at the US box-office and has lost much of its momentum. Most Academy voters will find it boring. I think they'll give it some technical Oscars as consolation.

R175, I imagine it'll get a ton of below the line nominations plus Best Picture, but Denis Villeneuve will be snubbed for Best Director.

R170? Shouldn’t you be signing your posts as “Bitter SAG Nomm Comm Member”?

SAG members are so insufferably self-important. Nobody cares about your dumb awards show.

I went into SPENCER not really knowing much and the movie is kind of a strangely intense horror film in many ways. I’ve seen some reviewers make comparisons to “The Shining” and I definitely saw several instances of that as well.

Kristen Stewart is very impressive in this and presents a pitch perfect portrait of Diana — from the gait to the accent to the looks — that felt almost ghostly at times. It felt almost definitive. The scenes with William and Harry are some of the most successful in the film. And that Christmas Eve dinner sequence is simply bizarre and Stewart just nails it. The camera work there takes your breath away.

Sally Hawkins is really marvelous in her role and I would love to see a surprise nod for her this year. Her performance is limited in screen-time but she makes a real impression.

Jealous much, R177?

Fuck off to the nearest grease fire.

I’ll continue to post whenever I want

30 Oscar Hopefuls Enter the Race for Best Picture:

“Passing” drops on Netflix tomorrow.

King Richard is very good. Well directed and well shot. Smith is fine although a little in over his head in a role which requires a character actor. Aunjanue Ellis is excellent as the wife and mother, she has a bravura scene in the family kitchen in Compton that could secure her nominations in the supporting category. The two young actresses playing Venus and Serena are fine. I guess it’s likely to be up for Best Picture, especially if there are 8-10 nominees. Smith is likely to be nominated but I don’t think will have a lock to win.

My friend just saw House of Gucci tonight. He said that it was a mixed bag but that Gaga is a force to be reckoned with.

“Reactions seem to be all over the place. From plain atrocious to Godfather vibes. Anyway, it seems Gaga is poised for a second acting nomination.”

is that okay for a white guy to say the lead actress Ruth's last name?

Screenings of Being the Ricardos finally commence Monday in LA and Tuesday in NY.

Since people seem pleased with Kidman in the trailer, I think she's looking better for a nomination. The superficial similarity was always going to be the biggest hurdle for her. There were rumors that Sorkin would have to rush to complete it in time, so screening it a month before it hits theaters seems like a good sign.

Just saw “Passing” on Netflix. I had heard amazing things about Ruth Negga’s performance and she really is fantastic as advertised. But I was really blown away by Tessa Thompson’s far less showy but brilliantly nuanced lead performance in the film. She is exceptional.

The cinematography is top-tier making the film utterly gorgeous to look at.

Good god that Netflix black cowboy movie? Regina king has done something to her face

I want Ruth Negga to win just so the presenter on stage can point to her and say "and the Oscar goes to......THIS NEGGA!"

I'll only tune in if Karen Grasser gets nominated. I am not interested this year.

NEGGA, please!

It's not a good sign that Spielberg still hasn't announced a press screening date for WSS yet and the movie comes out in a month. No one has seen it yet.

Gaga is a lock for a nom, I think. Even the mixed to bad reviews for the film itself say she's stellar.

Not sure about Kidman. I hope she kills it (since she already killed her face). I want that to movie to be great.

I hope Negga gets a nom. I fell in love with her in the little watched AMC series The Preacher. She's so captivating.

I don't think Gaga is getting a nomination. Half the reviews say she's disappointing to terrible. If Madonna didn't get nominated for Evita, then I don't see Gaga getting one for this mess.

R188, that’s exactly what I thought about Passing. Thompson gIves my favorite performance of the year so far. It’s early and I haven’t seen even close to everything, but I was surprised how much I appreciated her work. She has a couple moments that are quietly devastating.

I’m hearing that, like Les Miserables, West Side Story will have its first screening the day after Thanksgiving somewhere like Alice Tully Hall in NY.

Oh gawd, Jamie Dornan is really going for it, singing Everlasting Love at the Belfast premiere. So cringe. So Eddie Redmayne.

Isn’t Ruth’s last name pronounced Nayjja?

I went to a screening of Licorice Pizza tonight. I hated it. My friend hated it. Hoffman’s kid is OK but homely. The female lead (who the fuck is she?) is obnoxious, charmless and also homely. Bradley Cooper is fun playing Jon Peters as a total asshole. Peters’ mincing gay assistant declares out of nowhere that Julie Andrews is “difficult.” Poor John Michael Higgins has to speak in an offensive Japanese “accent” in not one but two different scenes. Christine Ebersole is amusing as a Lucille Ball type named Lucy Doolittle. Harriet Sansom Harris is fabulous in her one scene as a talent agent. But this movie still fucking sucks. Don’t believe the raves that are popping up.

R200, I've heard that it's just a bunch of odd vignettes strung together with no real storyline.

BTW, Julie Andrews is rumored to be difficult. She has a reputation in Hollywood for being tough as nails and she curses like a sailor.

Yes, I’m aware that Julie Andrews has had a rep for being “difficult.” I just thought it was unnecessary for that creepy assistant to bring it up to a pubescent boy.

I finally saw Spencer today. I've always thought it's insane that people have refashioned Kristen Stewart as some acting legend, and it didn't change my opinion. She relies on two or three acting tricks as usual (she's always darting her eyes), but she's not terrible.

I'd say she's better than the movie itself, which so often plays like a deranged horror movie. There isn't much humanity in it at all, even though a few of the actors (Sally Hawkins, Timothy Spall, Sean Harris) do what they can with what little Larrain gives them. It's ultimately an off-putting movie that seems like a parody of art house cinema.

I hated Jonny Greenwood’s score for Spencer which really is like that of a horror movie’s. So many discordant chords. Oy. Way over the top.

Went to screenings of Tick Tick Boom and House of Gucci yesterday and German film I’m Your Man tonight.

Tick Tick Boom is fine although the score is relentlessly generic. Good direction by Lin-Manuel Miranda. Loved Andrew Garfield and Robin DeJesus. The ethnically ambiguous female lead was a bore. I thought Vanessa Hudgins was the female lead but she’s not. At least she has the best song in the film, “Come to Your Senses.” Shame it’s ineligible for an Oscar.

House of Gucci is a total mess but still very entertaining. I’ll be struggling with whether to include Lady Gaga among my selections for a SAG nomination. I’ll have no problem including Al Pacino, who’s wonderful in a true supporting role. Jared Leto’s performance is bizarre and his accent is cartoon Italian but I did admire it. Adam Driver’s just OK. Why his character suddenly goes from being a sweet guy with a value system into a nasty megalomaniac is a mystery. No homosex in this unfortunately but Reeve Carney is pretty AF as Tom Ford and there’s a gorgeous, non-speaking Italian actor in the Swiss ski party scenes. Lady Gaga, Al Pacino, Jared Leto and Jeremy Irons were all at the Q&A, saying the usual shit. One of the producers was there, a rather handsome man named Kevin Walsh. I looked him up and he’s a former Scott Rudin assistant.

I’m Your Man-German woman is “assigned” humanoid robot who speaks German fluently with a British accent. I loved this. Dan Stevens proved in Eurovision he could do comedy and he’s great in this. The female lead is fine. This is a special film. It’s Germany’s official selection for the Oscar. I hope it finds an audience here. I think it might.

[quote]ated Jonny Greenwood’s score for Spencer which really is like that of a horror movie’s. So many discordant chords. Oy. Way over the top.

I liked his score for SPENCER more than his score for THE POWER OF THE DOG.

Andrew Garfield is fantastic in TICK, TICK...BOOM. I am no fan of Jonathan Larson's work so for me the songs were the worst parts of the film though Garfield gives it his all. I had no idea Vanessa Hudgens was such a good singer.

I loved HOUSE OF GUCCI. It was entertaining and that's more than I can say about some of the films I have seen recently (BELFAST, SPENCER, PASSING).

R205, I had similar feelings about House of Gucci. It gets a lot wrong, but all of the actors (except maybe Driver) really go for it. Leto even won me over, and I initially thought I'd hate his performance. What ultimately sold me was that it seems to breeze by, and that's not something you expect from a Ridley Scott movie.

I think the best comparison is American Hustle, another movie that lets all its actors play to the rafters and blurs the line between what is good and what is entertaining (both movies have Jack Huston lurking nefariously in the background, which is an oddly specific niche for an actor). The critical assessment of American Hustle has gone back and forth over the years, and I suspect it'll be the same for House of Gucci.

Belfast PICTURE/ DIRECTOR/ CINEMATOGRAPHY/ ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

[quote]They're gonna give Oscars to Will Smith and Nikki Kidman, aren't they?

Yes, and Dakota Johnson, even though it absolutely should be Jessie Buckley getting nominated for that film. And there's no way Maggie Gyllenhaal doesn't get nominated for best director, as will Chloe Zhao for her Marvel flop.

Buzz seems to really be building for Andrew Garfield. It may come down to a two-man race between him and Will Smith.

I feel like there's no way the Academy is going to give Andrew Garfield an Oscar over Will Smith. For a musical, no less.

A NETFLIX musical, at that.

Nicole Kidman will be nominated for a Razzie, not an Oscar.

They'll give Will an Oscar so Jada can finally STFU.

R214 can you think of a better reason?

R210, I've seen King Richard, Will Smith has this in the bag. It's another Erin Brockovich/The Blind Side; it's a massive star in a movie that is the very definition of a mainstream crowd-pleaser. And it may not be as good as Erin Brockovich, but it's miles better than The Blind Side, so I won't complain even if I like Benedict Cumberbatch or Andrew Garfield or whoever better.

Every win for a big star in a mainstream crowd-pleaser buys the Oscars credibility to award something like Parasite. It's the balance that the Academy has been trying to strike for almost a century, and giving Will Smith an award for a very good performance in an enjoyable movie seems like a small price to pay if they give someone like Jane Campion an Oscar for Best Director, which seems likely (Belfast for Picture, The Power of the Dog for Director, they both split the Screenplay awards).

And R215, I would give Tommy Wiseau an Oscar if Jada would STFU.

I would dig up Malcolm X, drag his corpse onstage and hand him an Oscar if that would get Jada to finally STFU.

no r213 her reviews have been great so far

and no r209 Jane Campion will win Best Director and that will fill the woman quota. No way a Marvel movie or Gyllenhaal get in.

They'll hold a grudge against Will Smith for the chaos Jada caused. They'll give Denzel the third one he didn't get for Fences. Perfect block for the Smiths. Can't cry racism when it is given to the most well regarded black actor still working.

R219 sounds like a vicious smack to Jaded. Here's hoping!

Wouldn’t Garfield get an Oscar for his one two punch of two very opposite roles in one year?

I hope Will Smith wins and forgets to thank Jada.

R213 Both.

Haven't seen King Richard so I take everyone's word here that Smith is great, but this weirdo book tour he's been on the past few months, talking up his fetishes, his open marriage, and general weirdness is NOT going to help him imo. A very strange PR move for someone who's got a major awards campaign coming up on him.

Tick Tick...Boom may be similarly terrific but it's a musical, as stated upthread. And Netflix is putting its big campaign money behind Cumberbatch and TPofTD this year. Garfield is popular with voters and could squeak out a nom. It's crowded though, what with Smith, Cumberbatch, Denzel, the House of Gucci cast, and dark horses like Jamie Dornan looking for a slot.

Maggie G, Dakota and Chloe Zhao are NOT getting nominated for anything this year. Kidman is getting very good reviews on average for Being the Ricardos as are the rest of that cast, so nominations may be in play. I still feel that Stewart is the frontrunner for Best Actress, that hasn't changed and she will be the one to beat.

And loved r207's HofG comparison to American Hustle. Perfect.

R216, I disagree. I don’t think Will Smith has this in the bag. It’s only been a week since I’vd seen King Richard and neither his performance or the film are staying with me. Benedict Cumberbatch and Power of the Dog are. And so will, I suspect, Andrew Garfield. And Dan Stevens in I’m Your Man, although he doesn’t stand a chance for a nomination.

And yes, I agree that Dakota Johnson won’t be nominated for The Lost Daughter but Jessie Buckley could be. I certainly think this is true for the SAG Awards. No way will Johnson get a SAG nomination.

Smith doesn’t inhabit Richard Williams the way a fine character actor could. And I agree, his PR tour is doing a lot of damage to his chances. He’ll be nominated for sure but I don’t think he’ll win.

Jada will literally burn Hollywood down if Will loses to a white man this year.

Who in Hollywood gives a rats ass what Jada thinks? She would be one of the main reason he would lose.

Idea. How about awarding the Oscar to people playing original characters, not cartoons of dead people. Looking at you, Gaga, Nicole, Garfield, Smith, Bardem, Stewart.

The character that Gaga plays is a live woman.

And your comment is lame, R230. The Oscars have always nominated people for playing famous folks.

I agree, R230. Not that a great performance by an actor playing a real-life figure shouldn't be rewarded but after so many years of it, it does begin to feel like they should just create a separate category called Best Impersonation and call it a day.

[quote]I still feel that Stewart is the frontrunner for Best Actress, that hasn't changed and she will be the one to beat.

What about JHud for the Aretha biopic? Is she still favored for a nom?

In your dreams.

I think Alana Haim is going to sneak into Best Actress for Licorice Pizza. The reviews for her have been really positive.

Christopher Rosen at Gold Derby has the top 5 likely Best Actress nominees as:

1. Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”

2. Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”

3. Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”

4. Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

5. Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”

I've only seen the Stewart and Chastain films and think Chastain is miles better than Stewart. I honestly do not understand the acclaim for Stewart and her film -- I almost fell asleep watching it and the ladies behind us walked out 30 minutes into the film.

R234, if you're referring to JHud being nominated, she received glowing reviews and has been on Scott Feinberg's best actress shortlist for several months (see link at R134 for the latest one). That doesn't mean she's going to actually get the nod but considering it a possibility is hardly a "dream."

Haven't the reviews for Stewart been all over the place or have they been consistently positive? I too find it hard to believe that she would be catapulted to the front of the line over the likes of Kidman and Colman.

Scott Feinberg is not a very good Oscar prognosticator.

He must post here because someone is always pushing his articles filled with outdated predictions.

Has Ansel ever exposed willy or ass onscreen?

No, R235. Ain’t happening. I actually loathed Haim in Licorice Pizza and I wasn’t the only one who felt that way at the screening. I predict what the critics say about her (and the film) will be completely dismissed by audiences when it actually gets released.

Garfield is lead, Dornan is seeking a supporting nom.

Chastain's Tammy Faye was a flop, she's out of contention.

I think Garfield is also being touted for supporting for the Tammy Faye pic.

These are the locks to win, so far:

Will Smith

Kirsten Dunst

Jane Campion

Nicole Kidman, about a 70% lock right now

R244, there's a difference between "front runners" and "locks to win". None of those are locks to win. There has barely been any pre-cursors yet. Plus, nominations and the night are a long way off. Slow down.

[quote]Dornan is seeking a supporting nom.

Dornan's role is so slight and less impactful overall. I was more moved by and impressed by Ciaran Hinds as his father.

Haim is too fug for anyone to actually care.

The Best Actress choices are so insipid they might as well give Frances McDormand #4.

The best supporting actress category is the most competitive. There are realistically 20+ deserving performances and only 5 spots.

R248, my dark horse favorite in that category is Martha Plimpton.

I’d love to see Martha Plimpton win an Oscar. Deserving actress.

[quote]Nicole Kidman will be nominated for a Razzie, not an Oscar.

You need to keep up. Ever since the screenings started for "Being the Ricardos," Nicole Kidman's buzz has been off the charts. Everyone who was razzing her casting is coming back and saying she's amazing as Lucille. Her nomination is, I think, assured. I don't think any wins are in the bag at this point, though.

Martha Plimpton from The Goonies?

Will Rebecca Ferguson get a nomination for Dune?

I haven't seen Mass but Martha Plimpton has been one of the most consistently wonderful actresses I've ever seen. Whenever she's in a movie, you at least know she'll be good and that's a great trait to have. Her work on the TV show, Raising Hope, was incredibly funny.

[quote] Will Rebecca Ferguson get a nomination for Dune?

I would love to see that happen.

I've always loved Martha Plimpton.

Why didn’t Ruth Wilson get that part in Dune, it seems right up her alley and perfect for it? I don’t know that Rebecca person at all?

Andrew Garfield in Tick Tick Boom!

Loved Being With the Ricardos tonight because it goes so deeply into the creative process of doing an episode of I Love Lucy. Kidman is really good in scenes as the private Lucille but not so good in the comedy bits as Lucy. And she still gets tripped up by certain words, accent-wise. Even words like “version.” I came in thinking Javier Bardem was miscast but actually loved him as Desi. JK Simmons and Nina Arianda are wonderful, too. Great cast.

At the Q&A Sorkin said “Back in the 1950s there was an organization-not HUAC-that was called something like American Values First. They would tell film and TV producers, after some investigating, who was or wasn’t suitable for their projects. Today that organization is Twitter.”

Of course Sorkin is referring to the Twitterati who expressed their opinions about his casting for The Trial of the Chicago 7 and now Being With the Ricardos. What a dumbass analogy.

Anyway, I think the film, screenplay and all four main actors will get Oscar nominations.

R244, you obviously haven’t even seen Power of the Dog. Dunst might not even get nominated. Her role isn’t strong or compelling enough for one.

G, M, and Viola all have supporting roles coming up?

They should just throw the Oscar onto the stage and let them fight each other for it.

Dunst is this year's Amanda Seyfried. (looked good in the store but when you got it home not much there.)

Oh gees...what does Viola have coming out? Please not another insufferable campaign about suffering please.

It's a woman's prison movie with Sandra Bullock r262!

Viola will suffer greatly I'm sure.

Andrew Garfield is getting a lot of buzz right now. Once the movie drops on Netflix, he might have a real run at it. The problem for him is that King Richard is a better movie and that will most likely carry Will Smith over the finish line.

Granted, it's never fair to judge anything out of context but the clip they showed of "House of Gucci" tonight on the Colbert show looked pretty cheesy to me. Gaga comes off like she's doing a parody of a mafia wife that she saw on "The Sopranos."

I don’t know why, but I have a sinking feeling that we haven’t seen the performance that’s going to win Best Supporting Actor yet, and it’s probably going to be some awful choice (Jonah Hill in Don’t Look Up, maybe) that’ll make people say the previously unthinkable “Why couldn’t they have just given the Oscar to Jamie Dornan?”

That category just feels up in the air in a way that seems destined to lead to a bad outcome.

Oh, God, it's absolutely going to be Jonah Hill in Don't Look Up, isn't it.

Nicole Kidman 70% chance wtf? Not happening.

Anne Thompson of Deadline says:

nne Thompson @akstanwyck · Nov 14 Sorkin's pandemic shoot Being the Ricardos is a fascinating look at one fraught week for Lucille Ball & Desi Arnaz, under duress on many fronts with I Love Lucy and their marriage at stake. Kidman & Bardem deliver Oscar-worthy perfs. But flashbacks with de-aging CGI are creepy.

I stil cannot get over Oscar of Rami Malek

After seeing Belfast yesterday, I think the actress who played the mother could sneak into the Best Actress category and Ciaran Hinds will be nominated for Best Supporting.

yes, oscar for Ciaran , please!

I always used to get Ciaran Hinds and Alan Rickman confused. They look very similar.

Kirsten Dunst is 100% winning.

I enjoyed I'M YOUR MAN enough thanks to the charm of Dan Stevens but couldn't Germany select a proper awards worthy submission other than a retread of MAKING MR. RIGHT?

DLU embargo will be lifted after tonight. Laraine Newman liked it.

I read raves for Alana Haim from all the major outlets.

Yikes! The facial work on Will Smith. He looks 19 years old, totally not himself anymore. Did he get a total brow lift, what's going on there?

And will it help or hurt his campaign I wonder. Superficial factors matter, esp in tight races.

The trailer for Don't Look Up made me chuckle once or twice and Jonah Hill actually had chemistry with Jennifer Lawrence. Not the romantic kind, but the interesting watchable kind. I'll check it out. The films up for consideration this year are at least all sounding somewhat entertaining. Well, except for Power of the Dog.

*are all sounding.

[QUOTE] The films up for consideration this year are at least all sounding somewhat entertaining. Well, except for Power of the Dog.

Having seen this already, I can say that it’s very entertaining. I was riveted throughout and especially in the latter half.

Good to hear! I've heard Benedict C's performance is very self-conscious and it's hard to suspend disbelief - he doesn't quite disappear into the character. But I'll probably end up checking it out.

The Power of the Dog was very good, imho

R282, I don’t know if “disappears into the role” is the right way to categorize it, but I totally bought Cumberbatch as this character and thought he struck a tough balance. I’m just remembering his reaction when the meaning of the title of the film is revealed and it’s just breath-taking.

He should really be in a winner conversation. The nomination is assured.

Kodi almost steals the film.

Just got a digital screener for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. I went to a screening of this a few months ago. I’ll probably rewatch it. Chastain is fantastic in it. They’re obviously doing everything they can to get her included in awards season and I think she will be.

BTW, Cumberbatch showed peen....

If that's the only shot, you can't see anything but his ass, r286.

But didn't he show peen in Frankenstein? (On the performances when he was the monster).

Scroll down r286

He did show peen on stage as the monster in "Frankenstein," and I thought it was, uh, very brave of him. But maybe he's a grower, not a shower.

I wish Tony Goldwyn showed peen (or bare ass) in King Richard as Venus’ first coach. Damn, he’s one hot daddy.

search google r290

There are pictures of him in a play fully nude.

R284 please put a SPOILER alert and tell what power of the dog means. I can't find the story

This is NOT a spoiler: There is a Bible verse that goes "Deliver my soul from the sword; my darling from the power of the dog."

The "darling" is Kirsten Dunst's character, and the "dog" is Cumberbatch's character. Cumberbatch's character is a mean, nasty asshole and Dunst's character is passive and meek. This is established right at the very beginning of the film so I'm not giving anything away.

And Dunst’s character being so passive and meek is the reason she might not even get nominated. She certainly won’t win if she is.

***SPOILER***

I was referring to the moment when Kodi points out to Benedict how the hill pattern looks like a dog running which no one but Benedict himself and his past man-crush Bronco Henry had ever noticed (all three presumably gay).

It seems clear that Bronco was fucking Benedict’s character in the late 1890s / early 1900s.

Between Don't Look Up and Succession, Adam McKay may be this generation's Martin Scorsese.

I would love for Leo to beat out Will Smith for the Oscar.

So is JLaw back in the conversation now?

McKay/Netflix should put Jennifer Lawrence in the supporting category, as she would be one of the frontrunners to win.

Netflix is going to do so well at the Oscars this year with multiple films.

When does this open? I wanna see it now.

I’m still waiting for the promised Adam McKay Theranos movie…

The Best Actress race is like a trip through Madame Tussauds with waxworks of Lucy, Aretha, Diana, Tammy Faye and Gucci!

It's going to be a tight race between King Richard, Belfast, Power of the Dog, and Don't Look Up. I can see any of them winning since they all appeal to certain segments of the academy.

LA Times making the case for both Will Smith and Joaquin Phoenix:

Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Oscar Standings in Mid-November:

Here's Vulture's take on the race, and they're usually pretty good. Not surprisingly, this week they focus on King Richard and Being the Ricardos, but there's a random mention of Gaby Hoffmann in C'mon, C'mon.

Lady Gaga will win Best Actress, Lead.

I'm seeing "HoG" (unfortunate acronym!) on 11/23. I don't expect to change my prediction!

NK isn't going to win as Lucille Ball. Kristen as Diana? Nah. People are over Diana.

Tessa Thompson is only average in Passing.

R309 and even more so, people are over Kristen Stewart

R309 and even more so, people are over Kristen Stewart

Word from the BAFTA and LA critics screenings is that Ariana Grande brings the house down and steals the movie. I think she could pull a Beatrice Straight and get a supporting actress nomination.

....

Ariana has always been a better comedic actress than singer - she got her start playing wacky sidekicks in kids' shows - so that wouldn't be totally out of left field.

Meryl probably has it in her contract that she be the only one pushed for Supporting Actress.

Is my font the same size as the others in r299.

Mamie!!!! Get a ruler!!!!

I would be so pissed if Ariana wins over Martha Plimpton.

How can the whole cast of Mass be supporting? Aren't they all in it all the time?

Mass is a good example of why the Oscars would benefit from a Best Ensemble award like the SAGs.

Is Mass the four of them talking the whole time?

Could Leo win his second Oscar? It's a crime that he only has one so far.

The year Leo won his Oscar, Bryan Cranston should've won for Trumbo. Fantastic performance and fantastic film.

Interesting idea, R320, though I wonder if an ensemble category would only serve to create an "Everybody gets an award!" kind of feeling instead? Despite how grandiose it sounds, the Academy historically has only bestowed four individual acting honors per year. The feeling of how rare and special that is would (in my opinion at least) effectively be diminished if Oscars are handed out to 10 actors in one minute in one category.

R322, I think DiCaprio will get in. In fact, I think it will be Leo, Will, Andrew, Joaquin and Benedict.

Leo is getting RAVES, as is the whole cast.

I just watched it. I loved Don't Look Up. I don't expect to see a better film this year.. I actually like DL fave Jennifer Lawrence in this. And diCaprio is actually quite good. Lawrence will be Oscar nominated in Supporting and gonna be contender. Leo too.

[quote]I would be so pissed if Ariana wins over Martha Plimpton.

Not to mention how funny it would be if she won two in one night (also taking best song).

So Gaga, it seems, is really going to get a second BA nod?

That's pretty cool.

Once upon a time in the 20th Century, I taught "Macbeth" umpteen times.

I think, if she is the actress her awards would have us believe, Frances McDormand could get another nomination. Lady Macbeth is reputedly the most challenging role for an actress.

Also, I had the good fortune to see Denzel as Brutus in a 2005 Broadway production of "Julius Caesar." I'm looking forward to his Macbeth.

[quote]Netflix is going to do so well at the Oscars this year with multiple films.

Remember when Netflix first got into the Oscar game years ago and some in the industry weren't thrilled about it? I think the feeling was that we're now going to be giving Oscars to glorified TV-movies. (I seem to recall Spielberg was not a fan.) Have we come so far from that time now that no one really thinks of Netflix's movies in that way anymore or does that resentment still persist, if only more subtly?

I think the bias is still there, R331. It usually doesn’t matter in terms of nominations, but Netflix has a lot of trouble closing the deal with wins, especially in the top categories. Their only Oscars in major categories have been for Alfonso Cuaron directing Roma and Laura Dern for Marriage Story, and both entered the ceremony as stone-cold locks by well-connected people who know how to campaign.

Ma Rainey and Mank couldn’t win more than techs in the most Netflix-friendly year ever, and it probably helped that they competed with each other for a few of those categories where there wasn’t a reasonable theatrical alternative.

Just finished watching King Richard. It's Biopic 101, but damn if it wasn't a satisfying movie. I really enjoyed it.

I normally despise Will Smith, but he was fantastic. So was the actress playing Oracene.

(Full disclosure: I'm a huge Venus fan. So I might be biased.)

netflix really had to pay for those tweets

I'm a YUGE Mark Rylance fan, but I canceled my Netflix subscription a long time ago because I wasn't watching an of its product.

Damn, now I'm thinking of re-subscribing just to see "Don't Look Up"

Adam McKay is a terrible director.....what a minute when has that ever stopped the Academy showing people like him with nominations and sometimes wins.

Did you see The Big Short, R336. Fantastic film. And it wasn’t just because of the cast.

McKay doesn’t seem to be taken as seriously as he should as a filmmaker because he makes his films fast-paced, fun, and lighthearted, and film people distrust that as more advertising than art. But creating a fun two hours out of The Big Short was a huge achievement.

Vulture's current Best Director predictions are funny.

No one agrees with you, R323. Trumbo is a notoriously awful film and Cranston (and Mirren) are terrible in it.

The supporting actress category is going to be insane if they put JLaw at supporting. It's already jam-packed with amazing performances and then you add JLaw and Meryl. There's going to be lots of campaigning going on.

I enjoyed King Richard and would be happy to see Will Smith win an Oscar for it. But the performance is awfully one note. That may not matter with the voters but once the character is established the script doesn't really give him anywhere to go. The film is also about 20 mins. too long; once you realise how little of the Williams sisters' sport history, it does start to feel a bit like an Afterschool Special.

I enjoyed it but this feels primarily like a Best Actor bid and talk of Best Picture, Director, even screenplay seems a little over-heated.

*how little of the Williams sisters' sport history is covered...

Sorry r340 but it was a good film.

Aren't Leo and JLaw the leads in Don't Look Up?

Andrew Garfield may not get a nomination. The movie is flopping hard on Netflix. It's doing even worse than The Prom, which was terrible. I have a feeling that he'll be forgotten in a couple weeks. Bradley Cooper is likely to get his spot for Nightmare Alley.

While watching King Richard I couldn’t help but think what character actor could have done with the role. Smith is in over his head yet again. Louis Gossett Jr he ain’t.

R347 I was thinking of the actor who played Cutty the boxing coach on The Wire. He has real dad/coach energy.

The dad from Good Times.

Tick Tick Boom felt like a weird waste of potential. Garfield was outstanding in the role. But why are you making a movie about a guy who both wrote a smash hit show that defined a generation of popular entertainment, AND died tragically out of nowhere at a pivotal moment, but making the movie about neither of those things? It could have been a perfect biopic and instead it was like, so when is he writing Rent?

Isabel Sanford for Queen Richard!

When did Kyle MacLachlan turn into a grandpa? And I can't believe what happened to Colleen Camp. It seems just like yesterday that both Kyle and Colleen were sex-pots and now look at them. Director James Brooks has aged better than both of them.

What is Don’t Look Up LA Tastemakers, some new weird named restaurant?

Jennifer Lawrence is gonna be a shoo in. There is no may way she won't be nominated. Leo aho I don't normally like is also wonderful.

Lawrence is really good in this. She's gonna get nominated. And the Academy loves her.

But is Lawrence lead or supporting? Have there been any FYC ads?

They're placing her in supporting. She has a an automatic spot. She's really fantastic in the part.

Gold Derby has her listed in lead.

Honestly, it's probably a good idea to nominate Lawrence. She's one of those superstars that appeals to both the old and new guards. Millennials still worship her.

The NY Times review gave Smith measured praise, but said the actresses who play Serena and Venus make the film.

Leo, Lawrence, Gaga...people might actually watch this year.

She's still no Julia Roberts

I just watched "tick, tick ... BOOM!" and I don't care how hard it may be flopping on Netflix, if Andrew Garfield is not nominated for Best Actor, then it would be one of the worst oversights in recent Oscar history, full stop. He is absolutely amazing in that role. (Who knew he had a voice like that?) And I really enjoyed the film itself as well as the performances by Robin de Jesus, Alexandra Shipp and Vanessa Hudgens and would love to see Robin get a supporting nomination, in particular for that scene on the sidewalk (about which I will say no more).

As a black person who's always happy to see a person of color win at the Oscars (because it still doesn't happen a great deal, though better than it used to be), it would certainly be nice to see Will Smith triumph since he reportedly gives such a wonderful performance in "King Richard." That said, after viewing all the nominees, I throw color out the window and root for the person whom I feel truly deserves it, regardless of ethnicity, so Will really better bring it to change my mind because as of now, I will be rooting for Andrew on Oscar night.

Never understood the JLaw hate on DL. She's a pretty good actress. I loved Don't Look Up. And she is really good in it.

As for WSS, has any remake ever won Best Picture or even been nominated for Best Picture?

If Sandra Bullock can win for the dreadful The Blind Side, why not Smith?

The Blind Side script is so cringe i read DL fave Julia Roberts barely finished reading it.

I thought JLaw did absolutely nothing Oscar-worthy in "Silver Linings Playbook" but she walked away with the Oscar, so there you go.

R365, Ben-Hur (1959), a remake of a 1925 silent film, won Best Picture.

Isn't JLaw America's Sweetheart now? Why the fuck does Julia Roberts still think the fucking crown is still hers?

I'm in the minority. But i actually think she's a good actress.

I think McKay could win best director. It's going to come down between him, Jane Campion and Kenneth Branagh.

I think Brannagh is out of contention.

McHack

Another huge Martha fan here but having just seen Don"t Look Up Jennifer Lawrence can actually win Supporting Actress if they place her there. She is actually amazing.

Can Leo beat Will Smith?

I don't think so. But Leo is outstanding. Will is this year's prom queen. He is just doing victory laps. Look out for Jennifer Lawerence's insanely funny performance. She's gonna get nominated for sure.

But Will is so odd and Jada caused them such embarrassment. I wonder if that will come into play.

(plus Bradley Cooper could sneak in if his film is good.)

The Smith's are a strange pair. I sort of don't want him to win. (I mean I haven't seen the movie so I guess he could be really deserving but he's too strange.)

Will Smith is year's Julia Roberts. He's gonna win. The movie is better than I thought it would be. It will get nominated and Smith is a slam dunk this year.

Early prediction. If Lawrence goes supporting she's gonna win.

So let me get this straight Meryl could not even by nominated for her film and her co-star could win? Again? Just like The Hours.

It's little things like this that get me through the day.

What does Lawrence play in the movie?

R381 in a word yes. Jennifer has the more interesting role in the film And she is really fucking good.

[quote]I enjoyed it but this feels primarily like a Best Actor bid and talk of Best Picture, Director, even screenplay seems a little over-heated.

R342 is spot on. I liked it, it was a sweet story and Will Smith brings a lot of heart to the role, but the script was treacly and derivative and the directing was nothing special. The little girls playing Venus and Serena were both great too, as was Jon Bernthal.

R41 Dern's win is way worse. And how she played her parents was embarrassing. I liked the movie a little bit but her role was ridiculous.

'tick, tick ...BOMB

WARNING: Anything Miss Miranda is involved with should be avoided.

I knew Jonathan Larsen when he worked at the Moondance Diner on 6th Avenue in Soho and he's nothing like the character Garfield plays. It's repellent!

^ Garfield's performance is so overdone!

So it's Gaga, KStew, JLaw, Chastain, and Colman for BA?

Is that the current top 5?

People might actually tune in!

Especially if Leo and Will duke it out for BA.

Nicole Kidman is considered very strong for a nomination and even a win r388.

Put her in instead of Chastain and you got the top 5.

Kristen Stewart doesn't have a chance.

JLaw could go supporting so Chastain could get in.

[quote]So it's Gaga, KStew, JLaw, Chastain, and Colman for BA?

Oh honey, no no no. Nicole Kidman and KStew are the two guaranteed nominations. Gaga and Chastain are iffy, the might make it, they might not. Jennifer Lawrence - there's no consensus yet on which category she'll be in. She has a better chance of winning in Supporting Actress. Colman is a probable yes, but the movie is not well regarded.

Colman's film got bad reviews?

[quote]if Andrew Garfield is not nominated for Best Actor, then it would be one of the worst oversights in recent Oscar history, full stop. He is absolutely amazing in that role.

"Andrew Garfield ... gamely sings and energetically gambols and uninhibitedly emotes and, in general, holds the screen with fervent charm, as movie stars do. But, unfortunately, Garfield isn’t a musical force of nature or anything close. His mere sufficiency in that department is the wavering note to which the entire movie is tuned and which, for all its many virtues, makes the film slip away from its emotional center."

I think Jennifer Lawrence might have a better chance winning Best Actress than supporting. It all depends on how well-received Nicole Kidman's performance is. Academy voters will jump at any chance NOT to give Kristen Stewart an Oscar, especially for such a terrible movie. Jennifer's only real competition would be Nicole.

Cate Blanchett is getting good notices for Nightmare Alley and may end up winning in the supporting category. However, the movie is said to be visually stunning but overall disappointing. Bradley Cooper's performance is also said to be disappointing and he should be no competition to Will and Leo.

Here's my one word review of Tick Tick Boom: Treacly.

Not sure why this is in the award's conversation at all other than everything that gets released somehow ends up in the awards conversation. I mean, people do a their job decently and everyone's like, "They should be nominated!" Not sure I agree. Also, Andrew Garfield cannot play heterosexual convincingly.

Nightmare Alley is generating zero buzz for a reason: it probably sucks.

Will Emma Stone be nominated for Cruella?

Jada is gonna have a major meltdown if Will doesn't win.

Surprised nobody’s mentioned Aunjanue Ellis, who’s wonderful in King Richard. That kitchen confrontation alone should get her nominated.

Any outstanding documentaries I should check out this year? My favorite last year was Crip Camp.

[QUOTE] Surprised nobody’s mentioned Aunjanue Ellis, who’s wonderful in King Richard. That kitchen confrontation alone should get her nominated.

She’s a lock for a nod, in my opinion.

I also think that she is the one who should’ve been nominated (and perhaps won, although I wanted Rachel Weisz that year) in supporting for If Beale Street Could Talk instead of Regina King whose performance I honestly barely remember. It’s Ellis’s character’s scene in the beginning of the film that I remember the most out of the entire movie.

I hope people talking about JLaw going supporting are not endorsing category fraud. I thought she was co-lead with Leo.

R396 It's awful and Garfield is terrible. He seems to be channeling Anthony Perkins. Garfield was much better in The Eyes of Tammy Faye a performance more worthy of Oscar consideration. The film has received some very good reviews which is unfathomable, but then the boring, empty Hamilton was over praised, over-hyped and over-priced as was Rent.

I think Garfield is brilliant in TTB and could imagine him being twice-nominated (lead for TTB, supporting for Tammy Faye). Of course, if this happens, he'll either win neither or take supporting as a consolation prize, clearing the way in lead for Will or Leo (or Joaquin if Will and Leo cancel each other out).

But imagine if you will a supporting actress category with JLaw, Dunst, Grande and possibly Streep and Blanchett. In my opinion that would be the race of the night.

I don't see how JLaw can run in Supporting when her name is above the title. Also, Ariana Grande is not going to be nominated for an Oscar.

Also, ask Julianne Moore, Emma Thompson and Sigourney Weaver about double nominations being a sure bet Supporting win.

I think the nomination of LaKeith Stanfield in Supporting showed that the Academy will do whatever they want regarding category placement, no matter how little sense it makes. If voters want to place Lawrence in Supporting, R406, then they'll do it.

Hell, both Stanfield and Kaluuya were lead in that film. Nominating them in Supporting was absurd.

King Richard's chances of winning Best Picture are over after it bombed at the box-office. For a movie like that to stand a chance, it has to be a big box-office winner, like The Blind Side. The movie is going to lose money. Will Smith's frontrunner status is now in question, especially with Leo closing in fast.

R407, the voters don't decide placement. The studio/distributor campaign for nominations. With all the supporting actresses in DLU, including Streep and Blanchett, I doubt they're going to put JLaw in supporting too when she's the film's only bid for Best Actress.

r400 see upthread, Ellis has been mentioned her a few times re her performance. She's definitely in the running but Supporting Actress is super tight.

No, R410, the voters absolutely do decide placement for the Oscars. Studios can campaign for actors wherever they like, but ultimately that decision does come down to the voters themselves, who have on multiple occasions ignored the studio campaign and nominated actors in different categories.

Kate Winslet for The Reader is the most famous example of that.

King Richard whiffs at BO

The box-office thing is going to be complicated this year because there have been some flops and a lot of mixed theater/streaming films.

Oscars was called "too white" then it was called "too woke" what's it gonna be in 2022?

What's with the conformity of choices, here and by the critics? "Cate is terrific in Nightmare Alley, she'll be nominated in Supporting and definitely win!" Um, no not really. AMPAS is notorious for making the acting big names wait a long time to become double, and rarely triple, winners. It took M decades to get #3.

They may certainly love Cate, but they aren't letting her into the Triple Crown circle this year, not for a del Toro movie.

Similarly I've no doubt JLaw is terrific in DLU, but they won't give her a 2nd Oscar so soon after the first, making her a double winner at 31. They tend not to play that way. Yes I know about Mahershala and Chris Waltz; those were both double supporting wins and neither household names.

In a year where JLaw, Blanchett, Meryl, Dunst, Dench, Aunjanue Ellis and Catriona Balfe could be nommed, look for Dunst to take it home, with Ellis playing spoiler. Balfe is too new to the AMPAS scene and not known for film work (yet), the others are already major stars with multiple wins. Dunst has played the long game with dues - Steve Huvane will pull out every stop for her - she's well-liked by her peers and will draw on her connections. Only Ellis imo could best her.

It's not always about the performance, but about perception of paid dues and politics.

R416, Dunst is absolutely NOT going to win. She’ll be lucky just to get to the ball. Her role in Power of the Dog is disappointingly inert. Nothing as good as her work in Fargo Season 2.

King Richard definitely took a hit because of HBO Max, R414. It's not like Dune, which demands to be seen in theaters. Even a movie like In the Heights could make a better case for the theatrical experience. King Richard is two hours of Will Smith yelling while his daughters play tennis, and no one needs a big screen to see that.

R416 makes a great case for Dunst. I don't think she's a lock, but she does have the narrative that makes the most sense out of all her competition, and sometimes that's enough (even if her character is inert).

^ didn’t stop me, r417.

Different circumstances, R419. Dern had a show stopping scene in Marriage Story and Dunst doesn’t in Power of the Dog. Her character starts off OK but is reduced to a whimpering, simpering alcoholic doormat by the end of the film.

R415 maybe too close to call

r417 her role may have been 'inert' as you say, but re-read what I wrote. It's not about the performance, per se, in many cases. Kiki's been around for DECADES, putting in consistently great work with many major players: Pitt, Cruise, Raimi, von Trier, Crowe, Coppola, Campion. She's an early superhero player in the Spiderman trilogy, and had two iconic youth roles (Bring it On and Drop Dead Gorgeous).

She has friends up and down the power AMPAS list from working on A-list projects since a child. More importantly, she is one of the original Holy Trio of St Stephen Huvane (the others being Goop & Aniston), she is one of his earliest and longest-standing clients, and he will pull out -everything- for her this season. They've been waiting a long time for this moment, to do this. That alone gives her a huge edge.

[quote] Will Emma Stone be nominated for Cruella?

I was a better Cruella.

[quote]Oscars was called "too white" then it was called "too woke" what's it gonna be in 2022?

Too boring.

What an underwhelming group of nominees, save for a handful (Gaga, Will Smith).

Kristen Stewart an Academy Award frontrunner should tell you all you need to know.

And we're back to elevating Jennifer Lawrence as a great actress? Streep again?

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

R424, I think the Kristen Stewart bubble is going to burst pretty quickly. Spencer has tanked hard with audiences. It's not just that people aren't going to see it, it's that the audience that did show up hated what they saw. It has a Rotten Tomatoes audience score on par with the 2016 Ghostbusters reboot and Darren Aronofsky's mother!, two of the most reviled movies of recent years.

I don't even think Stewart as secure for a nomination as people assume. We could be looking at another Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers situation, where a massive online and media push for a celebrity blinds everyone to some very glaring weaknesses.

Forget Kristen Stewart. No way is she going to be nominated. Jessica Chastain has a much better shot at a nomination.

R412, Weinstein campaigned for The Reader. The Academy voters did what he instructed them to do. Same thing with Viola in Fences. Mahershala in Green Book.

They're not going to put JLaw in supporting when a Best Actress nom can add to their overall total noms - there are bigger goals than winning.

R416, I disagree. The role/performance are the deciding factors, not the longevity of a career.

I doubt you’ve seen Power of the Dog. When you have get back to me.

This is what Variety says about Don't Look Up's acting category placements. I feel like they will put Lawrence in the Best Actress category:

DiCaprio has launched himself into the awards conversation, delivering another knockout performance as an astronomer desperately trying to share the truth before getting wrapped up in the media and political antics that often plague crises (like a COVID-19 pandemic). Angling for leading actor consideration, he could crack a field that is brimming with incredible names. Early rumblings were on a possible supporting bid for the actor, with discussions surrounding an ensemble approach to the acting campaign. This tactic would have been very sellable to the actors’ branch. Contenders like Jamie Dornan and Ciarán Hinds in “Belfast” can exhale, since this will not be the case.

word is west side story is piece of shit !

j chastin suked bad !!!!

will smith , nooo way,

Kirsten Stewart gettin a nom from anybody is a big fat joke.

I think one advantage Will has over Leo is that Leo has won before. The Academy may feel like just as they finally gave Leo his trophy after previous nominations, this time will be Smith's turn.

The other big advantage that Will has over Leo is that Smith is in a biopic while DiCaprio is in a comedy. Adam McKay has a pretty good track record for getting acting nominations when he makes an Oscar player, but even his actors haven't overcome the bias against comedies yet.

Leo's film is timely though and appeals to the problems of climate change (I believe)

He has a political edge.

mr willy smith's movie is a flop a roonie accordiing to the trade mags. good.

I don't give a shit what anyone says, Chalamet deserves a nomination for Dune. He carried that movie.

I am not a musical theater person at all. I've heard of Rent, but know nothing about it or its creator.

I just watched Tick, Tick, Boom. I like it well enough.

But I kept thinking how spookily spot on Larson was with the premise of his never produced Suberbia,

Clifford the Big Red Dog in its second week made more money this weekend than King Richard

king richard is a big fops a roonie of a disaster.

When did she/he last have a hit??? he is not bankable anymore. how do he get roles???

R436 Timothee sold the movie to the world but it's not with his acting. It was because he's pretty. There's no Oscar for best pretty boy.

Has Nightmare Alley even started screening? I've heard absolutely nothing.

R442 Yeap. Premiered in 1947.

Fuck off, 443. I'm not talking about the original version. But you knew that. You thought you were going to be amusing.

You weren't.

[quote]word is west side story is piece of shit !

Word from where? It hasn't started screening yet. (Though it will later this week).

R44 Oh you fuck off. Obviously you are a fan gurl/stan of one of the stars of the del Torro version.

At the end, it's all about the given competition. This year, it appears none of the contenders in BSA race already seen gives pundits any confidence to predict for the win. Hence, Blanchett's name being circled around site unseen simply on the pedigree.

if there is a god in heaven, kirsten stewart, nicole kidman and jessica chastain wont win awards.

[quote]I disagree. The role/performance are the deciding factors, not the longevity of a career.

That is extremely naive. AMPAS is one of the most politically-oriented voting bodies in the western world. Political in the literal sense, and also in the internal-local-Hollywood sense.

One could argue that half or more of the acting awards handed out over the past 40 years were based on internal campaigning and horse-trading, or "career-due" feelings, rather than objective quality of the performances nominated.

We spend hours on these threads every years on DL, discussing these details.

Yeah its rarely about the performance. Most are cause they feel someone is due or someone kissed enough asses. Oscars are "bought" in many ways.

Go back to to the Frances McDormand thread and post another essay, R450, "cause" you don't have anything of value to contribute here.

Better yet, go back to work and "kiss some asses" or something, "cause" you clearly don't have anything going for you in real life.

R451 So Malek got his oscar for amazing acting?

R451 it's not that serious. Calm down moron!

The performance is part of the reason people vote for somebody -- very rarely has a bad performance won due to outside reasons, though there are admittedly a few examples (Liz in BUtterfield 8, Pacino in Scent of a Woman). Generally, however, the performance is good enough that outside influences -- veteran status, beloved in the industry, box office, race/nationality -- can raise it up to a win over better performances that lack that extra narrative push.

So far, two narratives appear to be collapsing: Kristin Stewart in Spencer and Will Smith in King Richard -- the public's outright rejection of their films throws a considerable wrench into their prospects -- I suspect Smith can still grab a nomination, but I'm starting to wonder if Stewart will be passed over.

I like your 1st paragraph r454. Nuanced and generally true.

I don't know that Stewart has 'collapsed' enough though to not get at least a nomination though. Not at this point - let's meet again in a few weeks to discuss. She's been running a flawless pr campaign so far, it should be enough to push her over the line.

I agree with R455. Stewart’s performance is just too good not to be nominated this year. However, her frontrunner status has withered away as the film itself has not really captured audiences and other candidates have emerged as strong alternatives.

Folks have been writing Jessica Chastain off because of her film but I think she still gets in as one of the earliest BA contenders on the scene.

Leo's next two movies are Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon and Roosevelt. He's most likely winning an Oscar for one of them. He's in great shape regardless of whether he wins this time or not. Will Smith is desperate for the win.

I'm sure he'll eventually get a second award, R457, but I am really not looking forward to the inevitable "But Leo only has one Oscar!" campaign.

People like Kate Winslet and Anne Hathaway got a lot of criticism for aggressive Oscar campaigns, but Leo's for The Revenant was even more insufferable, and I don't want to endure a repeat of it for a very long time.

R458, speaking of insufferable campaigns, let's not forget Melissa Leo, who, in my opinion, was downright embarrassing in her desperation for a win. But win she did, so obviously it was all worth it in the end.

This is also why, even though she's a complete kook who eventually shot her career in the foot, I admired the way Monique didn't campaign her Oscar year and just basically cruised to a win on the merit of the work alone. If only more would (could?) do it that way.

Will Elgort have his big cock out ftw?

[quote]People like Kate Winslet and Anne Hathaway got a lot of criticism for aggressive Oscar campaigns, but Leo's for The Revenant was even more insufferable, and I don't want to endure a repeat of it for a very long time.

Hear hear! Please spare us it's too soon after the first go-round.

Laughing now remembering Kate Winslet’s “I’m a 19th century dyke now” failed Oscar bid last year for Ammonite.

Winslet's Oscar campaign in 2009 was disgusting. Then she tried to walk it back during #metoo blaming it all on Harvey Weinstein.

[post redacted because linking to dailymail.co.uk clearly indicates that the poster is either a troll or an idiot (probably both, honestly.) Our advice is that you just ignore this poster but whatever you do, don't click on any link to this putrid rag.]

R464 she sounds like a fucking spoiled idiot, needs a firm hard boot up her spoiled arse. What a wanker

[quote]Has Nightmare Alley even started screening? I've heard absolutely nothing.

I've seen screening dates starting the first week of December.

Is JLaw farting and burping again during interviews? She’s so “relatable” you know.

She sounds like a spoiled A list movie star which is what she is. How is this so groundbreaking?

It's not groundbreaking, no. But it's shocking that she's saying it openly during a highly competitive Oscar campaign season where she is newly in the running for a slot in an insanely competitive category. Foot in mouth, and out and back in. Her publicists (and the studio team tasked with boosting Don't Look Up) are dying a little at their desks today, trust.

[quote] and less impactful overall.

((((CRINGE))))

Dear Evan Hansen grossed more its opening weekend than King Richard!

No one wants to support a Will Smith movie anymore.

Because the fucker plays the same role in the same way in every movie. Give him an award so he'll go away like Costner and Gibson did.

R464, You must have missed Will Smith's latest interviews where he talked of wanting to kill his father, and how he got a loan from his drug dealer. Oh, and how granny Stockard Channing broke up his first marriage. Lawrence is doing just fine compared to him.

[quote]Because the fucker plays the same role in the same way in every movie.

Isn't it fair to say that this describes many movie stars? Tom Cruise has been doing the same thing with little variation for the past 25 years.

But Tom Cruise isn't campaigning for Oscars, shamelessly.

One thing I do have to say about Cruise is that he goes the fuck away between film projects, and even when the film comes out he only does a minimum of interviews. He's not constantly in-your-face and thirsty like so many of these whores. I have to give him credit for that.

Frances McDormand is going to take over the Oscars as she always does to show the world how off-the-beaten-path and unconcerned she is.

[quote]Please tell me she is joking - she sounds like an empty-headed, lightweight idiot.

That's because it's who she is. She's an uneducated hick from the Mid West. I don't even think she finished middle school.

I like Lawrence and I'm pretty sure she was making a joke. Things can read differently in print than when you're hearing her say it in person or on video. She appears to have a sense of humor about everything and doesn't take herself very seriously and I like that.

Her only flaw was showing up and suddenly being in every movie at once and the overexposure did her in. People got sick of her. She's kept a lower profile for the past few years and that's probably for the best.

T460, Elgort’s been “canceled” due to an alleged sexual assault. He won’t be nominated for anything this year (not that he would have been anyway, but the brewing scandal seals it).

[quote]Also, ask Julianne Moore, Emma Thompson and Sigourney Weaver about double nominations being a sure bet Supporting win.

Don't forget me!

In the Heights grossed twice as much as King Richard opening weekend, and ITH got better reviews. Why is King Richard a contender for BP and not In the Heights? And I guarantee you that ITH will have better reviews than West Side Story, but WSS will still be more of an Oscar favorite for some odd reason. None of it makes sense.

THR reviews "House of Gucci":

R481 Because ITH sucked. So did Hamilton and Tick, Tick . . . Bomb!

r475 Cruise used to be quite thirsty (Oprah's couch remember?)

Now he stays hidden because he'd have to answer questions about Katie Holmes and why he doesn't see Suri.

Abandoning your child doesn't play well to his old frau fans. He just keeps making Mission Impossible films. (It must drive him crazy though that Nicole and Penelope Cruz both have Oscars and respect. Bearding for him made their careers.)

The Variety review above pans the film but it is a full out rave for Gaga.

With foreign critics raving over Don't Look Up, it's going to do very well at the Golden Globes.

"I just saw a masterpiece. Possibly the best critique of 21st century sheep society seen on screen."

they aren't really having the Golden Globes this year

"Don't Look Up is Adam McKay's best film and the smartest, most hilarious, and well-written satire in years. Rabidly entertaining and brilliant. Direct to the best of the year. Leonardo DiCAprio, Jennifer Lawrence and Meryl Streep are huge and should be in the Oscars."

....

What supposed true story is Don’t Look Up based on? I know that Wag the Dog was a satire based on a true story.

The Golden Globes are racist and have been cancelled.

Belfast is also quite good as well as obvious Oscarbait. The kid is excellent. Dornan is less impressive than the woman who plays his wife.

The reviews for House of Gucci are just all over the map! Some call it boring, some call it wildly entertaining. Crazy.

But nearly every single review is giving Gaga raves. Madonna must be livid. Haha.

Who's the idiot that keeps shitting on Frances M on this site? You are unfunny and predictable, loser.

I haven't a clue r494. Perhaps someone jealous of that she got three Best Actress Oscars before her.

The Globes are still having an untelevised ceremony even though no one is attending and studios and PR people aren't even submitting people to be nominated.

quite odd.

Count me in!

And me!

The Globes had one ceremony where they just announced the winners at a press conference due to a writers’s strike. I assume it’ll be something like that, R496.

I think they've rented a ballroom r499 so they are planning on people being there I guess!

Why was Twitter upset with the Golden Globes? I can't remember the details.

It wasn't twitter it was a bunch of stars and directors who were mad that they had no black members (for years), confused Daniel Kaleua and Leslie Odom indicating all black people look a like to them and Scarlet Johanson and I guess others said they had a history of asking sexist degrading comments to women. She said she has refused to do interviews with them for a long time.

R499, but will the winners accept the trophies or return them with a note that reads, "Thanks but we've had sufficient"?

R499 it was the 2008 Golden Globes. I remember because Cate Blanchett won Best Supporting Actress for I'M NOT THERE, fittingly.

lol r504

(and then dopey Billy Bush chimed in that she only won because she was playing a man. Way to spoil the moment for the winner.)

I loved Bergman Island with Vicky Kreips—quiet movie but beautifully done and an interesting twist on a film-within-a-film. I’d love to see her as a surprise nom (who should have won for Phantom Thread…).

[quote] Scarlet Johanson and I guess others said they had a history of asking sexist degrading comments to women.

She's become such an annoying troublemaker. She's almost as bad as Rose McGowan.

The Golden Globes are everybody's favorite awards show of the year, and now we get nothing because a few woke celebrities decided to cause a stink. They probably weren't getting enough attention, so they decided to ruin the fun for everybody.

[quote] The Golden Globes are everybody's favorite awards show of the year

Not hardly, speak for yourself.

R508, They are by far the best awards show. Far more fun than the Oscars.

The Globes are even worse at awarding interesting television performances than the Oscars are at awarding interesting film performances. The Globes always feel five years behind and geared to rewarding mediocrity. I’ll take the Oscars over that, at least there’s a foreign film category.

The Golden Globes are fun because the celebrities are drinking and much more loose.

Why does anyone care about a movie about the Wms sisters' old man? I mean, who actually gives a tinker's dam?

R490, No, it was not "based on a true story." It was based on a novel.

I’m seeing West Side Story in NY on Sunday night, Q&A afterward with the young leads as well as Rita Moreno. Jealous, bitches?

Hell yes. Will Big Dick Ansel be present?

I wonder if actors hate doing the Q&As they're all contractually obligated to do now.

Spielberg really held onto WSS for as long as he could. There has to be a reason why the first screening is only a week before it's released. It looks like they're trying to hide it for as long as possible.

Nobody could give a shit about Ansel Elgort. He's just another boring rich boy with the right connections.

R517, that’s just Spielberg. His Oscar campaign strategy got stuck in 1993 and never changed: hold back your movie as late as possible, then release it in December just in time to make a splash.

He never adapted to the current model, where you build buzz throughout the season at festivals, then capitalize on it. Coming in at the last minute usually feels like an arrogant move, and it probably has hurt Spielberg’s movies more than it’s helped them.

[Quote] Coming in at the last minute usually feels like an arrogant move, and it probably has hurt Spielberg’s movies more than it’s helped them.

Also hurting is the fact that with the arguable exception of Lincoln, Spielberg's movies haven't been as good as his movies from before the 2000s. I honestly don't see how remaking a beloved film is a step in the right direction.

r514, I'm seeing the original WSS on Sunday afternoon at a TCM Fathom Event, with an intro and extro by Ben Mankiewicz. Jealous, bitch?

The studio held on to WSS as long as possible hoping everyone would forget the underage rape accusation against Ansel Elgort. Looks like it worked.

R522 but was it rape, rape?

It only worked because Ansel Elgort is white.

Ansel Elgort did not rape anybody, underage or otherwise. Sheesh. People need to get their facts straight before spreading that lie as fact.

Ansel Cancel.

Maybe Rita will score a Supporting Actress nomination.

Wouldn't it be something if she won?

Indeed, R527. That could be a narrative that Academy voters simply couldn't resist -- awarding her in the same category for a remake of the same film she won for exactly 60 years before.

Judging by the trailer, the new Leonardo DiCaprio/Jennifer Lawrence movie looks more like a comedy than a serious drama.

Actually, it's a satire, so it's both.

It looks like Glenn Close won't even get a nomination this year, much less win.

Tant pis

Fuck you, M. You're not getting shit this year, either. The supporting actress category is overcrowded, and for once your presence is unnecessary and undesired.

Tant pis yourself.

The M/G shit has never been funny. It's just the ramblings of a dementia-addled old shut-in queen. So sad.

Two dementia-addled old shut ins, r534.

West Side Story is the only potential Oscar-worthy film that hasn't been screened yet. After it's screened next week, we should have a pretty good idea how the nominations are shaping up.

Did anyone ever actually tally up Feinberg's win/lose rate? I had to deal with him on a movie I campaigned, and dude was a total fucking bumpkin. Like Golden Globes material. At best.

Not at all the 538/Nate Silver (straight tho) vibe that he was trying to project.

There is no science, he just wings it.

So is Mark Rylance the only actor to ever win for a Spielberg movie?

r516 Rosie O. said in a podcast that it felt so "creepy" when she had to do Emmy interviews for "SMILF"

The big stars don't seem to do them anymore.

previews of west side story are not good.....sposed to be a mess.

R538, there’s also Daniel Day Lewis in Lincoln.

you say that all the time r534.

Better learn to deal with it. It has become a regular feature for DL for like a decade or so.

Whenever people complain about how tiresome M and G are, the only justification people have for those awful posts is longevity. “Sure, we make these lame jokes that few people actually like, but we’ve been doing it so long that it has to continue!”

And it’s not one person who hates it.

I hate that we can't have a normal discussion about certain people on DL - Meryl and Glenn are two of them - because of weird-ass trolls who have to fuck up every thread about them.

Of course, this thread is not about either of them, but thanks for playing.

^^DIE YOU MOTHERFUCKING CUNT.

maybe people enjoy irritating people like you r543

(pointless bitchery and trolling seem to go hand in hand.)

I assume the idea that Rita Moreno will get a nomination for WSS is a joke since I understand she only has a cameo.

She's being adverstised but that is probably more for publicity and a show of respect.

I doubt anyone will get an acting nomination for West Side Story and I haven't even read any reaction to what people think of it.

Nicole Kidman and JLaw are probably sure things

[quote] previews of west side story are not good.....sposed to be a mess.

There haven’t been any “previews” yet - why do you keep trying to pass off the particular lie? It may very well turn out to be a mess, but no one knows that yet. As of late Sunday night, after the first screening, the word will start getting around. What on earth will you do if it’s *not* a mess?

Oh, it’s gonna be a mess.

Spielberg doesn't do "mess."

R553 = not Spielberg’s nanny or 1941

I can see No Time to Die getting nominated for Best Picture. It got great reviews and has the biggest box-office gross since the pandemic began. It would make sense for Hollywood to reward it come Oscar time. It should be nominated over Dune.

Your wishing and hoping for it to flop doesn't mean shit, r551. It is what it is, and so far there is no hint that it's a "mess."

And "1941" was over 40 years ago. He hasn't had a "mess" movie since then, and there are even parts of 1941 that are watchable.

R556 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and The Terminal weren't a mess?

Somebody started a thread on DL that they were seeing West Side Story the other night. Was that a lie?

House of Gucci opens to solid box office. Gaga is a movie star and Will Smith isn't. Who'd have guessed?

(someone remove all sharp objects from Madge and Jada's home please.)

I want to see West Side Story, but don't think I can stand looking at Ansel Elgort and his ugly face moles for 2 1/2 hours.

Here's the link for GAGA's box office.

Poor Madonna.

Tried watching The Humans on Showtime but it’s unbearable. Horrendous direction, terrible choice of music, endless long shots. The acting is good but could have been so much better with the right director. I noticed that not only was Scott Rudin’s name wiped off the end credits as one of the producers of the film his name was also wiped off the list of the producers of the Broadway production, too.

I saw The Humans on Broadway and I barely remember it.

Funny how Reed Birney didn't get to reprise his Tony winning role in this but Jayne H. did.

and then Birney got a big role in another film, Mass.

Judging just by the trailer, that movie The Power of the Dog is gonna get a lot of nominations. It looks just like the type of a movie Oscars are made for.

R556 Hook?

If there aren't trans women of colour in West Wide Story I'm not seeing it!

I was considering joining Showtime through a special Amazon Prime offer to watch The Humans, but it’s sounding like it’s not worth it. Instead I did watch Pieces of April again and it has surprisingly held up. I can’t believe it’s Patricia Clarkson’s only Oscar nomination. That woman is a national treasure, along with Frances Conroy, and they both deserve all the awards. They are even more deserving of accolades then G.

Hi all, OP here! I didn’t expect this thread to take off and thrive as it has, but as we march to 600 I wanted to keep the conversation going and I’ve started a follow up second part thread using the latest updated Feinberg article as a anchor. I know it’s early, but there a lot of activity here and I know some people have trouble posting on heavier threads such as these. I hope for the most part we fill this in first and anyone feel free to add this link again in the 590s as we chug away as I might not be around to do so. Carry on.

[quote]And "1941" was over 40 years ago. He hasn't had a "mess" movie since then, and there are even parts of 1941 that are watchable.

There is a lot to like about "1941". It's the ones you think will be funny, Belushi, Aykroyd, etc aren't and ones like Eddie Deezen, Ned Beatty, Murray Hamilton and Lorraine Gary are.

"The Humans"....just no.

WTF is C’mon C’mon. The trailer makes it look the biggest pile of self indulgent shit on earth.

R561 And is the referenced come, the dirty one?

[quote]Tried watching The Humans on Showtime but it’s unbearable.

I figured you were exaggerating. I was wrong. Mea culpa.

"The Humans " has Oscar Buzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

R567 Is Patricia Clarkson a lesbian?

Karam had promised the role to Birney and then cast Jenkins instead. Birney was initially pissed, but I'll bet he's pretty happy now he dodged that particular bullet.

The Humans has Amy Schumer in it so I automatically said "fuck no."

Pieces of April is my go-to Thanksgiving film. That and Mistress America.

I loved Kristen Stewart in Spencer but I don't know if they're going to give her an Oscar for that. It's certainly the classiest choice atm.

I don't think WSS will flop, but I don't think it will be an overwhelming hit either.

Most likely one of those movies that does decent business and get decent reviews, but in the grande scheme of things will get a "Why did they bother to remake this?" attached to it.

The original is a beloved classic. This one just looks like a paint by numbers remake with dull colors.

I assume that, good or bad, West Side Story gets the designated Spielberg spot plus a handful of tech nominations, winning nothing. One of the big complaints voters had about A Star is Born was that it was a remake, and even the best version of that story isn't nearly as beloved as West Side Story.

I don't think Spielberg has a new take on the material, and it doesn't play to any of his strengths. He's awful at romance, and hasn't shown any affinity for musicals (maybe the opening number of Temple of Doom counts, but even that was more of an action scene).

r581, in a way, it's unsurprising that Spielberg is attracted to West Side Story, as it combines dance and conflict; his two big dance numbers thus far -- Temple of Doom and 1941 (one of the bright spots in that film) -- are essentially action scenes masquerading as dance numbers.

What designated Spielberg spot? For director? He wasn't nominated for Bridge of Spies or The Post, despite both getting Best Picture nominations.

WSS might get a picture nomination, but only because there's ten nominees. I also think that's going to depend a lot on how it does at the Box office.

R583, I meant for Picture, not for Director. Since the Academy expanded the nominees, he hasn't missed for a single one of his Oscar vehicles, although obviously most of them wouldn't have made a field of five.

If Spielberg can't miss out on a Best Picture nomination even when he does War Horse, I think it's fair to say he has a designated spot in the Best Picture race.

Honestly? I think if Spielberg really thought WSS was worthy of Oscars, they would've released it much earlier, given it time to sink in and be viewed and experienced. The whole "last minute release" to qualify is just bonkers - like everyone is just going to completely forget about the original? That's the only film his remake is in competition with and I suspect the remake (that nobody asked for) will only make the original more popular.

[quote]The Humans has Amy Schumer in it so I automatically said "fuck no."

The Schumer hate is ridiculous. Over at IMBD they are attacking her. She handles herself very well with the rest of the cast. The problem is no one is given anything to say.

R559, Nobody cares about the father of the Williams sisters. I mean, was the moniker "King Richard" that prevalent during their heyday?

Gucci, though? Wealth, fashion, fame, and murder? With Lady Gaga as the murderer? Oh, yeah.

A 20th C. Lady Macbeth to go up against the McDormand OG.

Stewart's "Spencer" doesn't stand a chance.