OSCAR RACE 2022: First Look, Second Part

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Lady Gaga for Best Actress!

P O W E R O F T H E D O G for the sweep!

Thanks OP! The other one has indeed been a very interesting thread that has made me want to see a few more movies - never a bad thing.

R3 I know right, I’ve been more intrigued by films and performances this year then in the last few, so that’s a good thing since it felt it was in the death throws of the industry.

in the other thread someone said Julia Roberts may have had the blonde hair at her Pretty Woman Oscar ceremony for Hook.

In Hook she has brown hair (a wig probably.)

Maybe she did die it and cut it to look like Tinker Bell but they/she didn't like they way it turned out.

Well, that’s The Humans out of contention. Nobody’s going to watch that.

Counting the days until Power of the Dog is on Netflix and everyone can see quite clearly that Kirsten Dunst doesn’t stand a chance of winning anything for her performance in that.

I don't think Dunst deserves a nomination but Ruth Negga gave the same down in the mouth performance in LOVING and she was nominated.

Wasn't Ruth Negga nominated the year after #oscarssowhite?

Not saying she was undeserving. I don't know who she beat out. (actually was it Amy Adams in Arrival?)

But I think color really mattered that year.

R7, I haven’t seen the film yet so I can’t judge, but since you have, do you have any idea why people still seem to consider Dunst the front runner?

It feels strange that she’s persisted as the front runner based on what you say, especially since enough pundits have seen The Power of the Dog that it’s not just guessing.

I honestly have no idea why people still seem to consider her the front runner. It makes zero sense when you see the film. Her character starts out as a relatively well balanced young woman forging a life for her and her son who then finds herself being mentally tortured by Cumberbatch’s character. So much so that she takes to drinking alone in her bed. She doesn’t have one scene where she gets to let loose. Even at the end when there’s a chance she could have a knockout scene with the actor playing her son it doesn’t materialize. Dunst is fine for what she’s been given but she just hasn’t been given anything particularly meaty to play.

It's because they haven't seen The Lost Daughter yet.

R7/R11, thank you for your explanation. Based on what you wrote, the best I can guess is that it’s hard to give up a pre-established narrative for an actor when the movie goes over so well. No one wants to say “Yes, the movie is great, but sorry, the big Kirsten Dunst comeback everyone wanted just isn’t happening.”

It’s easier to crush people’s hopes for a flop than a triumph.

Is it because at a key time late in the movie Kirsten Dunst breaks character and sings a soulful rendition of “Losing My Mind” from Follies as the Montana landscape swirls around her?

I think the moment when Kirsten’s character cannot play the piano for her guests is probably her strongest acting moment in the film. And she acquits herself well in all the drunk scenes. But this one seems nomination-only. Benedict Cumberbatch and Kodi Smit-McPhee have more to do and stronger performances overall. They are both in win territory for me.

R15, I agree that the scene where Dunst’s character is unable to play the piano for guests is her best scene but it comes off as just sort of sad and pathetic without being in any way dynamic or deep enough to warrant even a nomination.

Compare that to Jessie Buckley’s supporting performance in The Lost Daughter where she brilliantly conveys a woman coming unglued.

The Power of the Dog has zero hype right now. We'll see if that changes once it debuts on Netflix. The fact that it will be easily accessible for Oscar voters to watch on Netflix may help its chances.

Likewise, King Richard has lost so much of its hype and momentum once it tanked at the box-office. I think it stands little chance of winning BP.

I haven't seen any of the three films yet, but I suspect Best Actress will be big on actresses playing real life people. Nicole Kidman will almost certainly get one for playing Lucille Ball. Jessica Chastain could get one for playing Tammy Faye. I thought Gaga would get one for playing Patrizia Gucci, but after the reviews and that accent, it is less likely. I could see them giving Kristian Stewart one for playing Diana.

When you are playing a real person, I have the feeling the Academy voters not only judge the performance but how much they liked the person you are playing. Hollywood loves Princess Diana, but Lucille Ball was a legend of their own, so I would give Kidman an edge based on that alone.

R2 Agree. And this is just me judging by the trailers, but it does look like the type of the movie that Academy Awards love.

Kirsten Dunst should have won a Golden Globe in 2015 for Fargo. Instead of Lady Gaga for that silly trashy "horror" show.

The fact that Hollywood loves Princess Diana also hurts Stewart, R18, because her version cuts herself and has visions of Anne Boleyn. She's not the poor, victimized Diana who elicits sympathy, she's a madwoman with the bad luck to be stuck around a bunch of unpleasant people.

House of Gucci is doing pretty well at the box office right now, and it seems to be the first adult drama of the pandemic era to earn decent numbers. That's very good for Lady Gaga, especially since her competition includes two movies that flopped at the box office (Spencer, The Eyes of Tammy Faye).

Which Sondheim song does Adam Driver break into during House of Gucci, and will his recent death boost nominations?

R21 The Oscars have made it clear, many times over the years, they don't give a shit about box office.

The guy who doesn’t like Kirsten Dunst should STFU and quit posting everywhere. Who is he? Jessie Buckley? Dunst doing anything on screen at all is alive and oddly touching. Seeing her drunk and broken is amazing.

Oh dear, R24. Oh dear.

We have a Kirsten Dunst Troll here, fellas. Only not in the least amusing unlike the Marion Cotillard Troll.

r9 Negga please. Oscars will always be too white!

r21 Gaga is literally dancing on the ashes of Kstew and Jessie Chastain.

As much as I like Lady Gaga, she is not winning for this overwrought performance.

Gaga for Best Actress.

To get the younger ones and the gays to watch!!

House of Gucci seems to be an erratic mess. But Gaga is getting almost universal praise. Including critics who panned the film.

I don't think the BO will have anything to do with whether she gets a nom or not, but the fact it's doing well certainly can't hurt.

But the Academy would be stupid to not nominate her.

First, the performance is clearly worthy of a nod.

Second, she's brings in viewers. Something the Oscars desperately needs.

Jennifer Lawrence should win Best Actress, but they'll probably give it to Kidman for a forgettable performance.

Leo should also win.

Jennifer Lawrence's PR people were all over the Don't Look Up thread declaring that she and Leo were locked for nominations. Yet I'm not seeing much Oscar buzz around the film or their performances.

[quote] they'll probably give it to Kidman for a forgettable performance.

You have no idea whether it’s a forgettable performance or not. Lucie Arnaz and the critics who have seen it disagree with your statement.

I thought JLaw is a big contender?

only on DL so far r34.

No other site seems to be as crazy for her as on here. (It might just be one person who keeps posting)

Regarding WSS, I think it's always been that studios prefer to release their films as close to the end of the year as possible. That way, they're fresher in the voters' minds come nomination time.

I think a perfect example of this is Jennifer Hudson, who seems to have fallen out of the best actress conversation despite being an early favorite for her work in "Respect." Granted, critics didn't like the film as much as her performance but the same can be said for Gaga (bad reviews for the film, great notices for her performance); however, "Respect" played over the summer and is already forgotten whereas "Gucci" was released this past week (and is a box office hit), so Gaga is bound to be nominated over Hudson even if the performance was no stronger.

One would assume that this is why WSS is being held until the last minute.

You're insane if you think J Law is not getting nominated. She has to be nominated They paid her 25 million dollars.

As I expected r37 is responsible for almost all the pro-Jennifer Lawrence posts on here proclaiming she's a shoo in for a nomination

Will Lin-Manuel Miranda have a contender in the best song category for "Encanto"? If so, that may mean a face-off between him and Ariana Grande, who appears likely to be nominated for her song from "Don't Look Up," thereby setting up one of the most-watched races of the night in a non-acting category.

Winners:

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain Best Actor: Will Smith Best Supporting Actress: Kirsten Dunst or Judi Dench Best Supporting Actor: Jamie Dorian

Will Smith's film bombed. Plus they hate Jada. He's done.

Erm, Jessica Shitstain is well and truly out of this race. The film sucked, nobody saw it, nobody cared.

Next!

Jennifer Hudson already has an oscar for playing a similar role. That and the movie itself not being very good hurt her chances.

DiCaprio might still get in but the buzz surrounding Don't Look Up has evaporated. Jennifer and Meryl's buzz has also disappeared. The woman from King Richard and Kirsten Dunst are getting a lot of buzz.

If Streep doesn't get a nomination this year, it will be her longest stretch without a nomination in thirty years!

How could the buzz evaporate for Don't Look Up...it hasn't even come out yet.

If anything the buzz for King Richard has evaporated since its huge failure at the box office.

I saw Power of the Dog, C'mon C'mon, and Licorice Pizza all this past week.

Loved all three, but Power of the Dog is the awards heavy hitter. I can see Joaquin getting an acting nod (I wish they still did Juvenile Oscars because the kid in C'mon C'mon was amazing) or PTA getting a script nod.

Benedict Cumberbatch, of all people, gave an incredible performance. Knocked me out. I hope he gets nominated and wins - I also hink Jane Campion has director in the bag. Gorgeously done film. Kirsten Dunst's role is a lot more subtle, but I can see her pulling in supporting as well.

It’s too bad for Jennifer Hudson, but it’s too soon for a biopic of Aretha. She was sui generis and inimitable. Too many of us remember her for anyone to be able to portray her and come across as anything other than a letdown. They need to wait at least another generation.

Did anyone else like Bergman Island? I really enjoyed it and thought Vicky Kreips was excellent in it.

I think the acting winners will be Benedict, Nicole, Jonah Hill (shockingly) and supporting I don't know.

[quote]King Richard has lost so much of its hype and momentum once it tanked at the box-office. I think it stands little chance of winning BP.

Totally agree. It was a nice enough movie but it really was a WS showcase. The little girls playing Venus and Serena and Jon Bernthal were both very good though, and I could see any of them sneaking in for a supporting nom.

Chastain is absolutely in with a chance. She’s been at several SAG screenings and they’ve sent DVDS out as well as making it available digitally. She’s getting a SAG nomination.

I liked Bergman Island but thought it was pretentious. Krieps was OK. Mia Wasikowska’s tiny titties were truly alarming.

I still can’t believe Mia Wasikowska‘s character thought that white sheer dress was a good choice to wear to a wedding.

I also thought using the real life inhabitants of Bergman Island was a mistake. Even in Swedish I could tell that their line readings were amateurish. They should have used seasoned character actors for those roles.

What could hurt Will's oscar chances is Richard's kid from his first marriage coming out and saying that he was a deadbeat dad who abandoned his first family and left them in poverty. And that the movie sanitizes his image.

Ouch.

[quote] The film sucked, nobody saw it, nobody cared.

That really doesn't matter for nominations, because they will send out screeners or provide screenings.

You'd be surprised how many Academy members don't watch all the screeners they get and just vote for their friends or name recognition or who they think deserves an Oscar in general.

R55, that's why I don't get why people are always screaming about the "purity" of the Oscars being lost in these last few years. There was never that much "purity" in the first place.

I'll stake my claim here that Chastain will be overlooked for that dreck where she dresses up like Fat Monica from Friends.

No impact.

So Jennifer apparently doesn't have the big Oscar clip in Don't look up so that may mean she won't be nominated as it's an extremely competitive best actress race. I feel that Jennifer Hudson does not deserve a nomination for Respect. Disregarding the bland and obvious film, her performance is not strong. Never once did I think I was watching Aretha. That's a problem. I think she will miss out and she should miss out. Lady Gaga will absolutely be nominated for best actress. It's a great, fun performance in a film people will enjoy. Do I think she completely disappears? No. But I don't think it matters. Nicole, Kirsten, Lady Gaga are definitely .And Olivia too. Penelope or Jessica for the last slot. Which is a shame because although the film isn't amazing, Jessica really is. Will, Benedict, Denzel, Andrew seem like locks, with Leo coming up from the back. Obviously some of this is up for grabs at this stage. But anyone saying Lady Gag won't be nominated is wrong. She will be and actually deserves to be.

What are Linda Lavin's chances of getting a nomination for Being the Ricardos?

Also, Karen Grassle is up for Not to Forget

Karen Grassle starred in one of the most iconic tv shows of all time.

She deserves an oscar nomination.

Gaga*

[quote]Gaga for Best Actress. To get the younger ones and the gays to watch!!

I agree. If Gaga is nominated, it will be strictly for the ratings, nothing more. Yes, she got good reviews for that mess of a movie but being worthy of an Oscar (particularly over much more seasoned and deserving actresses like Kidman and Colman) is something else entirely. But having her in the running will be great for getting people to tune in at least.

I'll bet Gaga wins the Golden Globe because they know she'll show up.

I actually disagree with this. She is not getting a nomination over Kidman or Colman. They will be nominated. And I think saying BO doesn't make a difference especially in this case is false. The first adult film to generate BO will not be ignored. But either should Gaga. Universally praised by critics- it's a fantastic performance.

[quote]with Leo coming up from the back

If there's one thing Leo knows how to do, it's come up from the back.

So far, I have only two extreme long-shots I'm rooting for: Rebecca Ferguson in Dune and Ben Affleck in The Last Duel. The latter is completely out of the running, but I'm still hoping for Ferguson - she gave that movie more emotional resonance than anybody else in the film.

[quote] Also, Karen Grassle is up for Not to Forget

Now, I understand why, all of a sudden, she has tried to "Me, too!" Michael Landon.

JLaw is nothin' special in "Don't Look Up", so a nomination isn't guaranteed, except maybe the Golden Globes. Gaga is going to wipe out all the competition. For Best Actor, I'm going to stick with my original prediction-Andrew Garfield for TTB.

Aren't the Golden Globes cancelled this year?

r69, I believe the GGs are still handing out awards this year, but it won't be telecast and nobody will go; the winners will probably be announced in a news presentation, as happened in 2008 for the 65th GGs.

Just out of first screening of West Side Story in NY. Well, I thought it was something of a disappointment for various reasons. One thing it does get right that the original film didn’t, in my opinion, was Maria and Tony. Especially Maria. Rachel Zegler is absolutely spectacular in every department. Ansel Elgort’s obviously not a trained singer but he’s fine. I believed them as tragic lovers. The rest of the castwere just OK, nothing more. I think it was a mistake to have Rita Moreno play a replacement for Doc-it’s far more than just a cameo, by the way-she sings all of “Somewhere”, for starters. I miss Doc hollering at the Jets “Yiu make this world lousy!” Instead she yells at them something like “I know all your names. I’ve known you since you were little boys. And you’ve all grown up to be rapists.” Except they don’t rape Anita although they’re very close to doing it when Valentina walks in. Even though a fair amount was shot on location it all looks like it might as well have been done on a Hollywood soundstage. Even “America” which was shot primarily in Washington Heights. I did enjoy the subway train (was it then the IRT) at 72nd/Broadway actually doing those three notes from “Somewhere.” It was subtle, though, not the wink-wink it could have been. The biggest applause at the screening was given when Rachel Zegler, Rita Moreno and, of course, Stephen Sondheim’s names appeared on the screen. There is a dedication “For Dad” but surely Spielberg is going to add another one for Sondheim? Anyway, man, I really wanted to love this more. But at least it has a Maria who almost single-handedly justifies why WSS even needed a remake in the first place.

I see it getting Oscar nominations for Best Picture (because of it’s cache), Zegler and cinematography. I struggle to see it getting any more than that. Go see for yourself.

R71 If Rita Moreno has a song and a sizable part, I could see her getting a supporting nod, just because she is Rita Moreno. Unless, you thought she bad?

What about Viola's women in prison movie coming up with Sandra Bullock.

does Viola suffer enough in that one? What bodily fluid does she ooze this time.

She did better with her snotty crying roles.

That greasy blues singer last year made me gag slightly. Poor Viola

[quote]I miss Doc hollering at the Jets “Yiu make this world lousy!”

That type of anti-Asian bigotry would never stand in 2021.

The supporting categories seem kind of weak this year.

r71, there’s Jeremy someone on Twitter who posted a “review” of WSS, and his is the polar opposite of yours.

“The new #WestSideStory is absolutely fantastic, clearly a ton of love and care went into it, and while the entire cast is phenomenal, Rita Moreno is the heart of the whole thing and the orchestrations are beautiful, a film ABSOLUTELY worth seeing in theaters.”

So nothing definitive yet. By the way, here was Lynn Stairmaster after seeing the movie of Les Mis: “It’s 100% successful, absolutely great on every level”. There have been others as well …

Didn't Lynn Stairmaster predict Madonna would get a Best Director nomination for W.E.

Haven't seen him around her in recent years.

I love Lynn! Glad to see Lynn posting again.

Sure his predictions are wacky and out there, but he clearly loves and appreciated film.

As do I.

The Sandra Bullock Viola move has had mixed reviews. Don't think it will do anything .

Isn’t Viola playing an African war queen next?! It’s going to be ‘Africa this, Africa that’ next year

Rita Moreno is 89. How is her singing voice?

I didn’t think Rita Moreno was bad at all, she’s sweet and funny (although her accent gets to be a tad too similar to Googie Gomez at times). I just thought it wasn’t a good idea for her new character Valentina replacing Doc. I guess she could slip into the Supporting category. And Kushner probably could slip into the Adapted Screenplay category..

The opinion I posted above is mine. I can see others loving it. I didn’t.

R81, her singing voice is fine. It doesn’r have the power it once had but it’s still fine.

I liked the smaller, discreet,less crowded 2021 ceremony in April, I wish the 2022 ceremony would be similar.

I liked it too, R84. The only thing I did NOT like was that they didn’t show any clips of the nominated performances. That was so fucking dumb.

Yeah, that was sad R85, the clips are part of the fun.

Lynn Stairmaster always has weird, unrepresentative opinions come Oscar time. Someone should do a thread about all the movies he’s thought were sure fire Oscar bait/sweeps that sank in ignominy.

The only Lynn Stairmaster I remember was the "everyone in Les Mis will get an Oscar nomination, including the little kid." Predicting the kid was obviously nutty, but as much as people justifiably hate that movie, it wasn't an Oscar failure.

[quote]Viola playing an African war queen

Hey, I'm here for this. At least it won't be the same old shit and might have an interesting story we haven't heard before.

Do African war queens suffer enough though?

I'm sure Viola will have a moment where she is alone removes her crown, drops her spear and sobs about how difficult her life is.

Poor Viola.

Will This Year’s Oscars Best Picture Be a Feel-Good or Serious Flick?

I finally watched Spencer—beautifully made and perfectly awful. Diana was miswritten, miscast, and misdirected, and it leaves a gaping hole at the center of the film. (And what’s up with the casting of QEII? Yikes!) Stewart comes across as playing someone French, not English. (Maybe Larrain should have tried a biopic of Anne Boleyn instead, actually.)

It’s really a shame.

Did I smell the Viola troll?

I think Rita will get a nomination. Because she's a beloved star, because this might be her last big screen movie. And it would be a fitting bookend to her first win for the same movie.

There are far too many deserving female performances this year to give Rita a charity nomination.

R95 in supporting?

"The Lost Daughter" Tops Gotham Awards:

Viola troll is retarded and unfunny.

R60 "Karen Grassle starred in one of the most iconic tv shows of all time.

She deserves an oscar nomination."

That's not a reason to nominate someone for an Oscar, dummy.

I used to watch reruns of Little House on the prairie two yesrs ago and I Karen Grassle had retired already.

She was only five years younger than Landon, but he missed entirely the Internet/cd roms/dvds/streaming and smartphone era while she is still going strong and working. That's what is sad about people losing their lives so early.

Feinberg's latest predictions. WSS has moved up in the rankings:

I think Rita Moreno could sneak in for WSS based on what I’ve been hearing from last night’s premiere.

I'd take a lot of the reaction to WSS with a grain of salt. The reactions are mostly out of the premiere, and those are often ridiculously overheated.

Yeah, and Sondheim goodwill.

I think there will be a big disconnect between the New York and the L.A. reactions to the movie, since it screened in both cities last night. New York had the premiere, it was Sondheim's home turf, and New Yorkers get very sentimental about the city in a way that doesn't play the same elsewhere. WSS will definitely cause people to trot out the hoary cliché about how New York is like a character in the movie.

I saw it in Los Angeles, and the audience reaction wasn't overwhelming. There was a lot of clapping after the Jets song, probably because I think people were excited to get a big musical number, then a smattering of it after some of the other early songs, but it essentially died out until the end credits.

As someone who is a major department store fan/amateur historian, I will see WWS, if for no reason, because it features a recreation of a Gimbels.

R105, that’s how it was at my screening in NY. A good amount of applause and then just smatterings of it after the other musical numbers. And not big applause when it ended. The audience I was with for a Tick Tick Boom screening went nuts at several points, especially during and after the “Sunday” number.

R106, it’s used only for “I Feel Pretty,” beachwear and bridal display departments. And then the loading dock when Chino tells Maria that Tony killed Bernardo.

Does Tony survive in this version?

R108 It's better than nothing. One of my big disappointments, in childhood, was getting to visit NYC and realizing Gimbels no longer existed.

R107, tell us again how brilliant Les Mis is and how it will sweep the awards!

Fuck off, R111.

Les Miserables got eight Oscar nominations.

Just in case you forgot.

R110

I had an interview in NYC for an internship the week Gimbels was closing and it was the only other thing to do on my agenda as I had just come in by Amtrak train for the day. By the time I arrived it was already a wasteland and I don’t think I even bought anything because the lines were outrageous, despite wanting to get a shopping bag. Very dejected I then walked on to Penn Station and took an earlier train home and beat rush hour. I did get the internship though, at The Metropolitan Museum of Art.

The early buzz on Nightmare Alley is that's its underwhelming. Cate Blanchett is the only likely acting nomination.

Blanchett is said to be wonderful in both Nightmare Alley and Don't Look Up, so if she gets a nomination it could put her as the favorite to win.

I don’t think anyone from Don’t Look Up will be nominated for acting.

I also don’t think Care will be nominated for Nightmare Alley.

It seems like best actress is battle of the biopics, plus Olivia Colman and Olivia Cruise.

Power of the Dog is the best film, and I hope Benedict Cumberbatch wins.

^ Penelope Cruz

R113 I would have been dejected as well.

Cate already has two oscars. They're not giving her a third.

Rita Moreno for Best Supporting Actress. It's the story of the year!

That unfortunate looking Haim sister is getting some awards buzz for Licorice Pizza but I've heard mixed reviews about the film itself.

They said that about Frances McDormand last year, R118, and she still took him a third acting award in the same year everyone expected that she would also get an Oscar for producing. If voters want to give Cate Blanchett a third, they will.

And I'm really skeptical of any Oscar campaign where it's more about the story than the performance itself. We all saw what happened with Chadwick Boseman last year, and "Black Panther died tragically and made everyone sad" was a lot more compelling a narrative than "let's give the same woman an Oscar for the same movie, only sixty years apart." That's not a good story, that's trivia.

Cate won’t even be nominated

But Marion Cotillard wasn't even nominated for Nine.

We remember you Lynn Stairmaster.

[quote] "let's give the same woman an Oscar for the same movie, only sixty years apart." That's not a good story, that's trivia.

Rita Moreno is more than "the same woman." For one thing, she is an older woman of color who has developed a very activist persona. She is a perfect candidate for woke twitter to go crazy over. She is also a producer of this version, who helped to make it non "racist."

At the same time it is a nomination and win that wouldn't upset older viewers, because they like her. It is more than trivia. Also, Hollywood loves a feel good sentimental moment, RM winning would provide that in spades.

Moreno is the only thing I'm curious about seeing. Otherwise it's like why watch a remake of a classic? It would be nice for her to get nominated (especially when no one else seems to be standing out in the category.)

I like it when famous people win. Great some woman from Korea won but who the hell was she? I want stars!!! Gaga!!! Kidman!!! Leo!!!!

[quote]Rita Moreno is more than "the same woman." For one thing, she is an older woman of color

I love her, but she's a white woman. White Latinos exist. There are photos of her parents floating around and they're white too. Her grandparents were Spaniards. She's spicy white, but she's not a woman of color.

R123, it's increasingly clear that Oscar voters don't give a shit about a feel good sentimental moment. Chadwick Boseman's loss last year should have put a stake through that idea, which was already on its deathbed even before the big upset. Oscar voters chose the old guy who already had an Oscar and didn't even bother to show up, simply because they liked his performance better. And Woke Twitter was enraged by that for a couple days, yet I doubt a single Academy member who supported Anthony Hopkins would even consider changing their vote to placate those jackals.

I stand by what I wrote: if you're only talking about the narrative in regards to an Oscar campaign, that campaign is in trouble. The performance has to back it up, and Rita Moreno teaching Angel Elgort a bit of Spanish, singing a song that really shouldn't belong to her, then yelling at the Jets in the movie's most ill-conceived scene just doesn't do it.

Who will be the mandatory Black actors in each of the four acting categories? I need to know now!

R124, I think the best Oscars have an eclectic mix of that. The ideal is a mix like the winners for 2000 releases. Hollywood's biggest star (Julia Roberts), a serious actor who proved himself at the box office (Russell Crowe), a quirky character actor who has been on the rise for a while (Benecio Del Toro) and an underappreciated character actress who finally, and surprisingly, gets her due (Marcia Gay Harden).

We don't the Oscars to be the People's Choice Awards, but we don't want them to be the L.A. Film Critics either. Every Oscar for a Youn Yuh-jung demands one for a Brad Pitt, and vice versa.

Julia used to be a big star

It really was the pictures that got small in her case r129

I've just watched the clip of Tony and Maria singing "Tonight" in the new WSS and it is appalling. Rachel Zegler's voice is pretty but helium-thin, and Ansel Elgort sucks all the life out of every shot. It was community theater production levels of bad.

[quote]The performance has to back it up, and Rita Moreno teaching Angel Elgort a bit of Spanish, singing a song that really shouldn't belong to her, then yelling at the Jets in the movie's most ill-conceived scene just doesn't do it

A lot of people have now weighed in on WSS '21 by this point. Most of them are extremely positive, and many of them are calling Rita Moreno the "heart" or the "soul" of the movie. So go on, keep up with your anti-WSS campaign if it makes you feel good (it obviously does), but no one gives a shit what you have to say, nor does anyone believe your constipated opinions about the Oscars.

[quote]So go on, keep up with your anti-WSS campaign if it makes you feel good (it obviously does), but no one gives a shit what you have to say, nor does anyone believe your constipated opinions about the Oscars.

I've seen the film. My opinion counts more than yours.

And if that's your reaction to someone doubting Rita Moreno's Oscar chances, you need serious therapy for whatever personality disorder has made you so unpleasant.

R123 I don’t agree. They still love sentiment or he wouldn’t have been nominated. The Oscars are known for giving posthumous nominations but they rarely award them the prize. In the acting categories it has only happened twice.

R134, perhaps instead of saying that voters don't give a shit about a sentimental moment, it might be fairer to say that sentiment can only take you so far, In that case, I don't think our positions are that far off.

I'm finally watching The Power of the Dog, and will finally get to see if the poster who has been so skeptical of Kirsten Dunst's Oscar hopes has a point.

I’m 4/5 of the way done with reading Power of the Dog and 1/3 of the way into the movie and both are phenomenal, but part of me is terrified about what’s to happen.

R136, the film follows the novel very closely. I would finish the book first; it makes for even richer viewing, especially knowing what’s going to happen (which came as a shock to me when I finished the book).

R119 "On the review aggregator website Rotten Tomatoes, 92% of 84 reviews are positive, with an average rating of 8.4/10"

So BA is something like : Zegler, Colman, Kidman, Gaga, Chastain?

Or? Cruz over Zelger or Gaga?

I think Jessica Chastain is vulnerable but I would prefer her over Lady GoatGoat

Nicole for the surprise snub, once people watch the film

Plenty of people have seen the film, r140. That’s what got the Kidman Oscar buzz really going, from all the raves about her performance from people who’ve seen it, both critics and non.

McDormand won a third (and fourth) because she's well liked in the industry and has a very self-effacing and down to earth personality.

Cate Blanchett, by contrast, comes off as a snob who thinks she's above many of her peers. She's also snarky, and not in a lovable way, but in cold mean-spirited manner. She used her second oscar win to insult Sandra Bullock. Total bitch move.

Those aren't the types who win more than two, if they're lucky to even get two.

This year is going to suck HARD.

Why, r143? What makes you say that?

So Feinberg catapults WSS to the top of just about every category - even putting Elgort in pole position just outside of the Top 5. Ha! Awards season has become too much about hype. Every week this year from In The Heights to whatever's coming out this weekend it's always "the best", etc. and then by Monday morning it's completely deflated - no one is pitching Anthony Ramos for an Oscar now, are they?

The reason why people are less and less interested in the Oscars is that it's all so pre-ordained, nothing happens in an authentic way. Audiences don't even get to see the performance and it's already been hyped out of all probability. There's no effort to ENGAGE. And then these films just bomb or disappear but they still use the same angle - "...oh no, THIS ONE is THE BEST THING EVER!" It's all just hype.

At least Licorice Pizza seems to be ignored in the awards buzz. It totally sucks.

I’ve been snubbed before 🤡

[quote]The reason why people are less and less interested in the Oscars is that it's all so pre-ordained

True, though I don't think it's the fault of the Oscars. For the last 20 years or so, there have been so many pre-award shows (Globes, SAG, etc.) with the same winners that took all of the surprise out of the process, so by the time the Oscars airs in late February/early March, interest has been reduced to near zero because we already know who will be taking the podium. And what can the Academy do about it? Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

I would bet money McDormand will make the BA list. She’s doing Shakespeare and what looks like adventurous Shakespeare, after a career playing earthy everyday salt of the earth women.

[quote] The reason why people are less and less interested in the Oscars is that it's all so pre-ordained, nothing happens in an authentic way.

The very fun Parasite year wasn’t too long ago!

At least two of last year’s acting Oscars were pretty big surprises.

I’m still happy Hopkins won. I watched The Father last minute the day of the awards and the end left me a teary mess. “I want my mummy”

You're right, R149. "Parasite" winning was a nice surprise.

[quote]The reason why people are less and less interested in the Oscars is that it's all so pre-ordained, nothing happens in an authentic way.

Last year was the best show they've had in a long time, if only because there were no "locks" and several categories were anybody's guess. THAT'S what the academy needs.

This year it seems like it's back to the lame "locks" and the same people winning fifty times in a row. Expect ratings to be even worse.

He certainly looked like one, r151.

Parasite was shit.

If awards shows are to survive, someone needs to find some sort of middle ground, between the Oscars where only a select few get to vote and the People's Choice awards where anyone can vote.

I don’t think awards shows are as relevant anymore, nor are stars. Everything is streaming and movie theaters are going towards extinction.

R157 Music awards are still holding up, they have had declines in viewership, but not as steep as the Oscars. But, I think that is because the Grammys, AMAs, CMAs, ACMs, Billboard Music Awards, MTV Awards, CMT awards, BET awards, etc... are built more around the performances and entertaining the audience, instead of just handing out awards.

Yeah the Tony's and Grammys are much more fun to watch cause there are musical performances. Cant really have actors get on stage and recreate their scenes.

R159 I have always thought the Oscars and Emmys would be better served by having stars appear in short filmed segments/sketches as famous characters from film/tv history or in character as their nominated characters.

Is this part of the marketing campaign for “Don’t Look Up?”

So the last unseen potential contender, The Nightmare Alley, was screened yesterday and it kinda flopped? Blanchett is the only possibility and even that is unlikely. Shame.

R146 Hasn't seen Licorice Pizza.

R155 Your face is shit.

R162 Huh? I read a bunch of raves for Bradley Cooper

[quote]Parasite was shit.

Sorry not every movie is the cinematic masterpiece I'm sure you thought "A Star Is Born" was.

R166 Hmm, no A star is born is was fucking nightmare....I ve been watching asian cinema since 2003 and that fake hype for asian cinema lately is disgraceful and pathetic. Movies from asia are in deep shit recent times

I saw Parasite on opening weekend and it was fun to be taken by surprise. It led me to Memories of Murder, a truly great film. I can’t begrudge Parasite the Oscar especially considering the quality of the films it beat.

Chastain, Stewart , Gaga,Kidman, Colman,Cruz going for the win in Satelite Awards.

THR reviews "Nightmare Alley":

Which Films Lead the Biggest Best-Picture Race in Years?

I can't believe someone is writing down "woke" on this thread. Please stop this. It's boring and shows what a shallow person you must be. Does it get on anyone else's nerves?

r172, it depends on how the person is using it: if they approve of wokism, then, yeah, I find it repellent; if they're disparaging wokism, then I'm all for it.

I think there should be a motion to block West Side Story from being nominated as a best movie contender. If this was Broadway it would be in the Best Revival category at the Tonys and not the main category. This is a very straightforward interpretation that adheres closely to the original, there is nothing transformative or reimagined to justify this taking a slot from a new totally unique movie when the original film already has an Oscar.

Something like The Tragedy of MacBeth would be fine as it takes it to a new dimension having them much older. Even Dune, because it only covers a part of the original film to me is fine, it is so much different from the first one, WSS not. I’m actually surprised the Academy hasn’t stumbled upon making a Best Remake category since that’s all Hollywood seems to be able to do most of the time. They could also pigeon hole things like the Spiderman movies into this since hey are basically photocopied entities of themselves.

Yes, I have, R163. Licorice Pizza is terrible, the female lead is fug and so is Philip Seymour Hoffman’s kid. The only good performance in the entire film is one scene where Harriet Sansom Harris plays a Hollywood talent agent.

Saying you hate Wokism just seems like an easy way to say things were better in the old days. Where everybody knew their place and the status quo was rarely questioned. Of course it's swinging to the other side now- maybe too far- but really a lot of it is about trying to level the playing field after years of sexism and prejudice that was institutional. It's easy to just call something or someone woke, harder to engage in a conversation about it. Not that I expect anyone that uses that term in a disparaging way to do that.

Being woke also bothers the grammar trolls.

Past tense as present must make them claw their faces.

And also finding wokism as being so repellent, but prejudice not, says it all for me.

R174, the NYT writer whose article I posted at R171 says this regarding WSS:

[quote]Spielberg’s savvy reimagining of the source material marries old-school sweep with contemporary concerns, putting the movie right in Oscar voters’ sweet spot.

That's not to suggest your view is inaccurate, just that it's already clear that this remake is going to really divide people regarding its take on the material.

I don't really want to see West Side Story. Maybe when it is free somewhere but I've seen the movie, the revivial from 10 years ago or so, the 6th grade production when I was in first grade. That's enough.

Maybe I'll just fast forward to see how Rita Moreno does.

R178, nobody said that they don’t find prejudice repellent.

Analysis: Oscar Race Comes Into Focus as Last Unseen Contenders, ‘West Side Story’ and ‘Nightmare Alley,’ Finally Screen:

THR reviews "West Side Story":

[quote] If voters want to give Cate Blanchett a third, they will.

But they aren't going to, not this year and not for a del Toro film of so-so quality. The reviews are decent but not raving, the movie won't make huge BO. No nom for Cate, sorry.

NBR Beat Actress Rachel Ziegler, yeah right!

The full list of 2021 National Board of Review winners is below.

Best Film: LICORICE PIZZA

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA

Best Actor: Will Smith, KING RICHARD

Best Actress: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY

Best Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, BELFAST

Best Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD

Best Original Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A HERO

Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

Breakthrough Performance: Alana Haim & Cooper Hoffman, LICORICE PIZZA

Best Directorial Debut: Michael Sarnoski, PIG

Best Animated Feature: ENCANTO

Best Foreign Language Film: A HERO

Best Documentary: SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)

Best Ensemble: THE HARDER THEY FALL

Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

NBR Freedom of Expression Award: FLEE

Top Films (in alphabetical order)

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

Dune

King Richard

The Last Duel

Nightmare Alley

Red Rocket

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order)

Benedetta

Lamb

Lingui, The Sacred Bonds

Titane

The Worst Person in the World

Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)

Ascension

Attica

Flee

The Rescue

Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain

Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)

The Card Counter

C’mon C’mon

CODA

The Green Knight

Holler

Jockey

Old Henry

Pig

Shiva Baby

The Souvenir Part II

Quite an array of choices from the NBR. This may be an interesting year after all.

Licorice Park? Well, no fucking way will it win the Best Picture Oscar. This is just a circle jerk for Paul Thomas Anderson.

Now you will not shut Jada up until April 2022.

Being the Ricardos snubbed for best picture by NBR

How #NBR compares to #Oscars, by category. (These stats cover the last 12 years, since the BP ballot expanded from 5.)

PICTURE -10/12 NBR winners nominated: Most Violent Year, Da 5 Bloods snubbed

-1/12 NBR winners also won Oscar: only Green Book won both

And Licorice Pizza will make it 10/13.

Watching Belfast. Comparisons to Roma are very premature. Is this a jukebox or a movie?

The pristine digital black and white is all wrong for this but typical of Kenneth Branagh.

Does thee NBR list acting nominees like other awards? Be interested to see who might have been up for consideration.

R194, I just checked their website and it appears they do not share that information, only the list of film nominees.

NBR also snubbed Power of the Dog, which I am 99% sure will be nominated for best picture and Jane Campion will win for best director.

Others have said that, too, R196, but based on the WSS reviews, I'm now wondering if Spielberg could be a Campion spoiler.

r197, I could see the reverse happening: WSS wins Best Picture, Campion wins Best Director.

[quote] NBR Beat Actress Rachel Ziegler

Well, WSS certainly takes place in the Beat Era, but how interesting that NBR gave it its own category!

West Side Syory gets a rave from notoriously prickly Justin Chang in the LA Times. So much for “it’s only New Yorkers who will squeal about it!”

Just watched Power of the Dog.

I really liked it . Felt like an old school movie.

Sort of took my out of my own world for two hours or so. Lovely performances.

Who is the audience for West Side Story? Gays and the elderly?

R202 Actually, I suspect teenagers will be a big audience for it, as they have been for the original. Romeo and Juliet is the one Shakespeare play that is still popular among them and West Side Story is based upon it.

Big Dick Ansel was on the NFL preshow tonight introducing the game.

R204 was he a charisma black hole on there too?

So for WSS: Movie. Director. Actress (Zegler) Supporting Actor (Faist) Supporting Actress (DuBose, Moreno). Adapted Screenplay. Cinematography. Production Design. Best Score. So, ten? Or will Sound and/or Sound Mixing take it to 11 or 12?

Power of the Dog: Movie. Director. Actor BC. Supporting Actor KS-M. Supporting Actress KD. Adapted Screenplay. Cinematography. Sound? Maybe 8? Of 9 if Jesse P gets in as well.

R167 He's been watching asian cinema since 2003, you guys. He knows his shit.

Supporting Actor KS-M? For what? For walking with bulging eyes?

He’s a lock, R208. And that category is ALL over the place.

No, supporting actor Ciaran Hinds!

R209 no fucking way, Ciaran wins

Bring that Irish wolfhound up on the stage!

Piggybacking on r206:

The 1961 WSS received 11 Oscar nominations, winning 10 -- Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography (Color), Art Direction-Set Decoration (Color), Costume Design (Color), Sound, Film Editing, Scoring of a Musical Picture -- the latter being a category that no longer exists. It lost Adapted Screenplay to Judgment at Nuremberg.

New York Film Critics Circle is voting now. Kodi Smit-McPhee won Supporting Actor, and The Worst Person in the World took Foreign Film.

More NYFCC:

Flee has been the year’s Best Non-Fiction Film by the New York Film Critics Circle.

Earlier, Kathryn Hunter was named Best Supporting Actress for her performance The Tragedy of Macbeth.

West Side Story wont win best film.

The Academy will not want the remake to win as the original. They likely want to preserve the status of the original.

I hope your right, r216, but the Academy has been discarding precedent for a few years now -- witness Parasite.

Oh, DL will love this.

NYFCC:

Best Actress - Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

NYFCC:

Best Actor - Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

NYFCC:

Best Animated Film - The Mitchells vs the Machines

I had started to doubt Gaga, but that is very helpful to her Oscar chances.

Critic's darling Kristen Stewart hasn't won a major award yet, and she needs those to remain competitive. Let's hope the other major critics' groups continue to ignore her for the awful Spencer.

The National Board of Review weighed in on Wednesday 12/1/21

Licorice Pizza: Best Film and Director PTA

King Richard: Will Smith Best Actor and Supporting Actress Aunjanie Ellis

Best Actress Rachel Zegler WSS

Supporting Actor Ciaran Hinds Belfast

The Power of the Dog is holding steady. Big win for KS-M, it ups his chances for a BSA nomination.

Gaga is the hometown favorite with the NYFCC. It's not that big a surprise.

Fuck you, KS-M

NYFCC:

Best Director - Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

I think it's a pretty big surprise, R224. Gaga is seen as the populist choice and the reviews for House of Gucci were mixed, so a big critics' prize is a bit unexpected. Someone like Penelope Cruz seems like a more typical choice for the New York Critics.

The NYFCC famously gave the 1998 Best Actress award to Cameron Diaz for There's Something About Mary. She did not go on to an Oscar nomination.

NYFCC:

Best First Film - The Lost Daughter

NYFCC:

Best Screenplay - Licorice Pizza

I easily could see GaGa paying $1 million or more to get this prize.

NYFCC:

Best Cinematography - West Side Story

Is West Side Story the New Best-Picture Front-Runner?

NYFCC:

Best Film - Drive My Car

Huh?

I’ve heard Drive My Car is awesome, but I don’t think it’s out yet in the US to see for myself.

r236, I checked justwatch.com and it's not available for streaming, either.

Kirsten Dunst will not win a single award for her low wattage role in The Power of the Dog.

She won't but she will raise her profile as a serious actress by being on hand for any ensemble awards and cast presences on the red carpet. Good for her. I like her.

Gaga is actually loathed by New York critics, R224. Her win is surprising. I was sure she was out of the Oscar convo, but she's back in for now.

I want Dunst to at least get a nomination just because, to me, she's given the single best performance of the century in Melancholia. I was PotD and she's really good. Not good enough to win, but good enough for a nom.

I will never ever understand the love for Melancholia and Dunst's dull performance. Viewing it, I alternated between sleep, nausea, and wanting to throw tomatoes at the screen.

My reaction to it wasn't nearly as good as yours, r241.

Dunst is a contender for POTD. I don’t know what all these Kiki haters are going on about - her performance is integral to the film.

[quote] West Side Story wont win best film. The Academy will not want the remake to win as the original. They likely want to preserve the status of the original.

Normally, I would agree. But, I think if the twitter activists, and others, really start beating the drum about how the original was "racist." Oscar voters might vote for it as a way to atone for what they feel is Hollywood's historical racism.

I think WSS might get best film because most people seem to think it's thrilling, and made by a master filmmaker who knows how to use the medium. And it's BD about the Academy feeling loyal to the original. If it gets raves and makes money (jury's out on the money making part), the Academy won't give a shit about the blessed original.

I've seen Don't Look Up(Thanks, Doug), Power of the Dog and The Last Duel. Don't Look Up deserves to win BP. It's AMAZING! I don't think it will win because it's funny and they like pretentious dramas. I also liked Dog and was surprisingly impressed with The Last Duel, which I think is Ridley Scott's best film since Gladiator.

Going to screening Monday morning of Nightmare Alley. Bradley Cooper will be at the Q&A. Any question ideas?

R247 Federer is good in bed?

Federer and Cooper???? How? When?

I've seen both. Because I'm super gay I loved WWS. But Don't Look Up is a better film. Leo and Jen will both get nominated. Other than that maybe Jonah Hill but no one else. But WWS is really good. I begrudgingly loved it. I hate the actor. But the girl is wonderful

I loved Belfast. Sentimental and childlike, but sincere, and it worked because it was through the eyes of a child (literally, in many shots). Everyone is talking about Ciaran Hinds, and I loved him, but Judi Dench was also incredible. The little kid was not a great actor but was adorable without being cloying.

This looks like Oscar bait and is being released in theaters the last week of December to qualify, I haven’t seen anyone here talking about it. George McKay just gets sexier and sexier.

I was disappointed by NIGHTMARE ALLEY. I had never read the novel or watched the original film so I assumed the film would be macabre or a psychological horror. To me it's just a passable noir film. Beautiful to look at with some fine performances but not great.

How ‘West Side Story’ Could Make (Even More) Oscar History:

Oscar nominations for our two greatest stars.

Went to Don’t Look Up screening tonight with Q&A afterward with DiCaprio, Streep and Hill. I thought the film had its moments but was very hit and miss. DiCaprio is really great, though, I think he’s a slam dunk to be nominated. I don’t think Jennifer Lawrence is, though. She has some funny things to do but her role/performance never reach the manic heights of DiCaprio’s.

Nightmare Alley really is gorgeously shot but just doesn’t work. Bradley Cooper is miscast. Toni Collette is always great but she doesn’t have enough to do here. Richard Jenkins is wonderful as a wealthy old monster. This will absolutely get nominations for cinematography and production design (Cate Bkanchett’s psychotherapist office is a marvel) and will most likely win the latter.

Who does Mary Steenbergen play in Nightmare Alley? I just saw the original and the only one I could see her playing is the older woman who’s at one of Stan’s shows whose daughter had died years ago.

Steenburgen plays a wealthy woman who is the victim of one of the main character's cons. It may be the same character, but I think they change some of the details.

THR reviews "Don't Look Up":

R259, yes, she’s one of Cooper’s character’s marks. And she does something shockingly violent at one point which made the audience I was with gasp audibly. She’s in only two scenes.

Don’t Look Up deserves bad reviews like the one from THR. It really is insufferable, good as DiCaprio is.

R261, she is very good in those two scenes, and that moment did produce gasps in my screening, too. I also heard audience reactions during all of Cate Blanchett’s big moments, and she has a lot of them.

Prediction: Lawrence and Kidman are out and Stewart, Hudson, Chastain, Lady Gaga and Rachel Zegler might make the final cut.

THR reviews "Being the Ricardos":

Shit. It seems every review for Ricardos so far is bad. Curious how this affects Kidman's chances. She is still getting near raves. Very similar to Gaga's performance in Gucci: Great performance in a so-so film.

Should be interesting,

funny most of the best Actress candidates have received better reviews than their films

Don't Look Up is getting very mixed reviews.

And, Gaga's win in New York is....very odd if not suspicious.

It's really not a great film year.

McDormand is going to sneak up on all these ladies. Boot Stewart off the list.

The Power Of The Dog and Licorice Pizza will win all the major awards.

R264, you forgot about Olivia Colman. I think she gets in there before Stewart or Hudson.

[quote]Don't Look Up is getting very mixed reviews.

This surprised me because I thought it was going to be a critical hit given Adam McKay's reputation and the starry cast. (The THR review was downright brutal.) I guess this explains why it has slid down Feinberg's list and may not be a major contender this awards season after all, though I'm sure it will still score some nominations.

Stewart will be nominated and most likely win, delusional DL queens notwithstanding. She’s been in the presumptive lead for months.

Stewart gave a bravura performance, but she was the heart of a film that felt empty specifically because her character was miswritten and misdirected. In a weaker year, that wouldn’t matter as much, but I think she’ll get edged out by nominees who gave just as strong performances in better films.

Nah, r273. She might sneak in for a nomination, but the film itself is generally reviled by the very few people who bothered to see it. The Academy is NOT giving an Oscar to that film.

R272 What's his reputation? He's the guy that did Anchorman and Step Brothers

Film critics are known for having no sense of humor and they have always hated Adam McKay. Vice was equally bashed by them and it ended up with 8 Oscar nominations. I expect DLU to get a few nominations, as well.

The Oscars will be officially over if they give BP to West Side Story--a remake. I don't care how good it is, it would be an abomination to award a remake of a past BP winner. They might as well give up and start nominating the Marvel films and Halloween IV.

I would throw up to watch that Being the Ricardos shit. No thank you with that Frankenstein woman.

I think the Oscar will go to Belfast. Wonderful except I wish it had been filmed in soft, old-fashioned color.

[quote]The Oscars will be officially over if they give BP to West Side Story--a remake. I don't care how good it is, it would be an abomination to award a remake of a past BP winner. They might as well give up and start nominating the Marvel films and Halloween IV.

Love this comment. LMAO.

No one mentions Tick, Tick, Boom, the movie I've liked most in the past few months (I've seen Belfast, Dune, and Power of the Dog). Or Andrew Garfield, whom I found absolutely wonderful.

I think Andrew Garfield could actually win the whole damn thing.

R271 you're right I did forget but, in the Oscar so woke Hudson and Zegler might come before 2 white women. R264

R279, Belfast seems like the only winner that really makes sense, especially given the preferential ballot that rewards consensus choices. I think people are really sleeping on it right now because it won't do as well with critics' groups as The Power of the Dog or Licorice Pizza, but it's an actor's showcase that tugs at people's emotions, and doesn't have any of the drawbacks that the other presumed front-runners have.

I don't think the sentiment at R277 will be uncommon.

R284 agree about Belfast but, since there are 10 potential nominees and in the last few years there have been 8-9 films actually nominated, West Side Story, Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog and even C'Mon, C'Mon and King Richard will probably get nominated.

This year it's going to be a hard ten for the first time in a decade instead of a variable 5-10 that always works out to 8 or 9.

You're probably right about that list, R285, and I'd add in Dune, which seems relatively safe. Even with the somewhat mixed reaction, I think Nightmare Alley still probably gets in, and that tenth slot is really up in the air.

I was just so moved by Belfast—including the shock of the first scene. In the beginning, I was a peeved at it being corny, but then it became clear the whole film was life through the eyes of a child, that simplistic and skewed but interesting and observant angle. Don’t count out Judi Dench either.

AFI's top 10 movies of the year:

CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story.

Isn’t the better lot of movies based on the fact that some of the best contenders to be in 2020 awards eligibility were held back for release in 2021? Dune and WSS being the most obvious ones, but I assume others as well. This goes into stacking the 2021 awards season with a big quantity of contenders.

Anyone seen CODA and can comment on Daniel Durant’s performance. In Deaf West’s Spring Awakening he was just so amazing, the kind of actor who opens a vein and bleeds out on stage. He was also very attractive and charismatic and you didn’t want to take your eyes off him. Even if he only gave half of that performance in a film he seems like he should be an awards contender?

Why no foreign films? Since Parasite winning two years ago, one would think they would start nominating more foreign films. Was that just a one time thing?

R288, the inclusion of CODA was interesting, because I thought the Apple TV release killed its award hopes. I doubt it'll make it into the Oscars, but it keeps getting random mentions here and there, and that's better than I expected.

R290, I think Troy Kotsur is the best shot for CODA in Supporting Actor. Durant is also good (everyone in the movie is), but Kotsur has the meatier role.

I know many here don't like Feinberg -- and I don't take what he says as gospel either -- but I do think there may be some validity to his rankings. For instance, I at first thought it interesting he doesn't include "Don't Look Up" as a front-runner but then I read the reviews and now I know why. On the flip side, however, he still has "Being the Ricardos" on there, even though I heard it also did not get fabulous reviews.

He currently has CODA down as a "longer shot."

R293, are you the person who always posts his forecasts here?

AFI has a good track record for predicting Best Picture nominees. Last year, 7 of their choices ended up getting a Best Picture nomination.

I think their list is probably accurate, except Belfast will replace one of the films.

R294, yep, only because I get THR's emails on a daily basis. I also posted the AFI results up above from Deadline.

Yeah, swap out CODA and replace with Belfast, and you've probably got your list.

I think Feinberg's predictions are usually terrible, but I don't see any problem with people posting them here. They move the conversation along, even if it's just commenting on how dumb they are.

Like this week, he has Rachel Zegler, Mike Feist and Rita Moreno in first position for their respective acting categories, and that's insane. We're in a spread the wealth era at the Oscars, and even if we weren't, it only happened for two of the biggest acting showcases the Oscars have ever seen. It's not happening for a musical remake.

Don’t count out Daniel Craig for Best Actor. There was a packed house yesterday for a SAG Nom Comm screening of No Time To Die where he appeared for a Q&A. And today I got a DVD of it sent by Federal Express. I think he totally deserves a nomination at last for shouldering that monster on his back for five films. I’ll happily knock Will Smith off my list to include him.

The Power of the Dog is coming on strong now that it has premiered on Netflix. It's actually out-streaming King Richard on HBO by an almost 2-to-1 margin. That's impressive considering Power of the Dog is an art house film. Its success on Netflix will definitely have an impact come Oscar time.

[quote]Stewart will be nominated and most likely win, delusional DL queens notwithstanding. She’s been in the presumptive lead for months.

The Stewart and Gaga camps in these threads will go to war if the race comes down between those two.

Just look at Goldderby, where the average age of posters has to be 22 and the average IQ is only slightly higher. Their Best Actress threads are nothing more than sniping between those two insufferable factions.

R301 There's no Kristen Stewart camp on DL.

The problem with nominating Daniel Craig is that No Time To Die wasn't even his best performance as Bond. And the character was probably at his weakest.

It's fine that he's making a play for it but it's a long shot. He needs to get back to being the proper actor he was before Bond.

We know Power Of The Dog will win Actor, Support Actor & Director.

West Side Story wins a bunch of technicals.

Best Picture is a crap shoot with the preferential ballot.

KStewed Prunes winning a Best Actress oscar will be the end of the oscars.

[quote]We know Power Of The Dog will win Actor, Support Actor & Director.

Not supporting actor, but actress more likely. Dunst is and will run a subtle but effective campaign and will get at least a nomination and will very strongly contend.

KStew is getting a nom for BA, make no doubt. Anyone saying otherwise isn't being realistic. The lukewarm reviews for Being the Ricardos, lack of power behind Penelope Cruz for Parallel Mothers and dicey prospects for Jennifer Hudson have make her a lock now. She will likely be in the final leg against Gaga.

I love these Oscar twins

R307, dear god, just give it up already.

Kirsten Dunst won’t win shit for Power of the Dog.

I think Dunst is getting in and is pretty safe, but after watching The Power of the Dog several times, I don’t see her winning at all. I wouldn’t rule it out, but the movie withholds so much regarding her character, and she doesn’t have a big Oscar moment comparable to her co-stars.

I didn’t want to agree with the Dunst doubter, but he does have a point.

Yeah, Dunst won’t win. Probably a nomination though.

R306 Don't worry it won't happen. As of now Rachel Zegler has a much better shot.

Would Dunst be nominated as best actress or best supporting actress?

R313 Supporting surely. And Rachel Zegler doesn’t have a shot at all (whoever said that).

I think you all have a funny idea about what constitutes an award worthy performance. Prior to seeing POTD, based on this thread, I thought Dunst would barely be in it without much opportunity to shine - which ALWAYS sounded suspect given this is a JANE CAMPION film.

I was amazed at her presence throughout the film. A lot of you don’t seem to understand how pivotal her role is to the plot - she puts it all in motion, you root for her son (and forgive his moral lapse) because he loves his mother and is moved to protect her AND she endures at the film’s end! She is the ballast against which Cumberbatch’s Phil hangs in the balance. The film, its tension is weighted between them.

It’s a JANE CAMPION film. And while I watched it, I thought, “Kirsten Dunst is FINALLY in a JANE CAMPION film. In a position with awards credibility. KIRSTEN FUCKING DUNST. From Interview with a Vampire and Melancholia and Spider-Man and BRING IT ON (and Get Over It) AND The Vurgin Suicides AND Marie Antoinette. And Wag The Dog. And you think, give her an Oscar. (And Drop Dead Gorgeous.) At the very least, this is the Barbara Hershey in Portrait of a Lady BSA nom. (And BH is great in POAL.)

She could very easily win. And the recent THR roundtable was asked something like who do you want to work with the most and none other than Best Actress frontrunner Kristen Stewart said, “Kirsten Dunst.” With Dunst right there at the table. Plus she bagged Jesse Plemons so they’re proper acting royalty now.

Plus she’s terrific in the film. Right now, she has a very credible awards worthy narrative. Certainly A LOT MORE than last year’s Amanda Syfried.

I love Kirsten Dunst and think she’s been handling her career brilliantly in terms of long-range planning, including this role, but I would give it to Judi Dench by far over her. I still need to check out Mass too.

Martha Plimpton should be walking away with Best Supporting Actress this year. The fact that she’s not even really in the conversation is depressing.

Jason Isaacs too, quite frankly.

None of the actors in Mass should be in the supporting category. They’re all leads. It’s category fraud to put any of them in supporting. Which is why I’ll include them in the Best Cast category but won’t include any of them in the Supporting category.

I loved WEST SIDE STORY but I don't see any acting nominations coming for the cast. Maybe a Golden Globe nomination for Ariana Debose.

Mass isn't on streaming. Is it playing in any cinemas? Certainly not in my neck of the woods. That's why it's not part of the conversation.

Critics’ Conversation: The Great Film Performances of 2021:

Aunjanue Ellis has been a fixture on the New York stage for many years. It would be nice to see her get some recognition for her work in film.

[quote]Aunjanue Ellis has been a fixture on the New York stage for many years. It would be nice to see her get some recognition for her work in film.

It would be well deserved. I knew nothing about Oracene and Ellis made her an equally compelling person as Richard. Smith was "acting", but Ellis provided honesty and realism.

R291 no foreign film I'm of aware this year has gotten the praise and attention both Roma and Parasite received. Both received dual nominations for Best Film and Best Foreign Language film.

R324, the Japanese film Drive My Car seems to be getting a lot of attention. And so has, to a lesser extent, the Norwegian film The Worst Person in the World.

There are so many films I want to see that just aren’t available. And the general availability of streaming content has made me such a spoiled baby about being unable to see them. I looked for both Mass and The Worst Person in the World tonight and couldn’t find them. Although that’s better than the $20 I blew on Spencer…

What film critics prizes have been given out already?

NBR, New York. Others?

LA is on Sunday.

Atlanta, Detroit, Washington, D.C

What's a good site that lists all the winners r329?

Critics And Their Screeners May Survive Awards-Season Rush Far Easier Than Oscar Voters:

R235 the first time I ever heard of Drive My Car was when it was, I assume to the surprise of most, named Best Film by the NYFCC. Parasite and Roma had been playing in theaters and in the case of Roma on Netflix and were talked about during award season. I don't think Drive My Car has a chance of receiving any nomination except Best Foreign Language film

R332, the leading man of Drive My Car is getting a lot of acclaim, though.

Went to screening of The Tragedy of Macbeth last night. It was followed by a Q&A with Corey Hawkins who plays MacDuff. It was a knockout. Visually wonderful and with a fantastic cast. Washington and McDormand are both great. And it’s only just over 90 minutes. I’ll be urging friends to see it on the big screen between Christmas Day and January 14th, when it’s on Apple TV +.

The Power of the Dog is stunning to look at, but that’s it. Dunst is very good, but it’s a part with no payoff and no Oscar moments. Same with Jesse Plemmons. Kodi whomever at least has a character arc, but he’s not going to win. And frankly, I don’t see Cumberbatch winning over Will Smith or others.

But cinematography absolutely.

[quote] Dunst is very good, but it’s a part with no payoff and no Oscar moments.

When I constantly see this here, I have to wonder -- did we see the same movie? Dunst has Oscar moment after Oscar moment in this film -- crying in the kitchen, freezing at the piano, desperately giving away the hides, etc. You can argue about the quality of her performance, but to insist that she has no "Oscar moments" is patently silly.

[quote] loved WEST SIDE STORY but I don't see any acting nominations coming for the cast

Then you need to clean your glasses. Ariana De Bose & Rita Moreno are one notch below being locks. Mike Faist is possible. David Alvarez is slightly less possible. And Rachel Zegler is being hailed by even people who didn’t like it. She’s swimming in lock territory now herself.

Try paying attention to the reviews and thd buzz, rather than your own opinions, if you want to Oscar prognosticate.

Have to agree with r336, noms for De Bose and Moreno are looking highly likely. Faist could also squeak in there. And Zegler as of this moment is absolutely getting a nomination, in fact I'd put her chances ahead of Chastain's and Kidman's.

R335, you’re the one who’s being silly. Dunst has zero chance of awards recognition for Power of the Dog. She gives a fine performance but it absolutely never adds up to become anything awards-worthy.

Went to screening of The King’s Man last night. A truly bizarre film. Ralph Fiennes’ character pimping his handsome son to Rasputin was but one of many eye rolling opportunities.

Dunst is absolutely getting at least a BSA nomination r338. If you know anything about AMPAS and Hollywood, you'd realize that. The movie is getting raves across the board -and- sizeable streaming numbers at Netflix, its a resounding success critically and commercially and that will bring extra power to the acting leads during voting season. Campion is a critics darling and now back in high graces with Hwood execs due to the financial success, she and her movie will be well-rewarded with nominations.

Dunst personally is well-liked in the industry and respected by her peers. She's seen as a bit overdue in terms of awards recognition, and this role in this movie the perfect opportunity to make up on that. She has the most high-powered publicist in town (Huvane) squarely in her corner, he's been planning her campaign for years, just waiting for the right role to carry it out. She's getting a nomination.

Kirsten's best performance was as Torrance the cheerleader in Bring It On.

I wouldn’h count on that, R339, no matter how long-winded your justification is.

And even if she IS nominated she’ll be the 2022 equivalent of that old French broad in that film Amour from ten years ago. A win ain’t gonna happen. It was never going to happen.

She's getting a nomination r341. She's on every film critics short list for a nomination and sitting at #1 right now at GoldDerby.

You don't need to read a justification, if you've participated in these prognostication threads for even a few years you'd get it.

Uh uh, R342. I’ve seen the film twice and I think she’ll get squeezed out by stronger performers doing more compelling, award-worthy work.

West Side Story will debut with an opening weekend box office less than In the Heights. That was deemed an immediate failure despite some obvious handicaps: no one knew the story or the songs, there were no big names attached, and it was available for free on HBO Max. West Side Story is a remake of one a musical everyone knows and loves by Hollywood's most successful director, and it's only available in theaters.

I think the West Side Story bubble burst today.

Is it now possible that The Power of the Dog could win Best Picture? It feels like it's the movie being fully embraced by critics and audiences.

Kirsten Dunst has been an actress of stature since she was about 17yo. Kristen Stewart too, though so many vicious gays seem to take her beauty and sullenness personally for some reason on here.

I saw a Belfast screener recently and wondered how much more consistent it might've been had they swapped Colin Morgan and Jamie Dornan's roles. Or not cast Jamie Dornan at all. I don't usually mind him, but he was a very very weak link in that cast, and I'm including the exceptional child actors.

R344 and don't forget Dear Evan Hansen who's opening day was $3.2M. Hansen was derided and mocked on DL and scorned by the critics, yet WSS made only $4.1M its opening day!

De Bose blew me away. I think her and Mike Faist both deserve nominations along with Ziegler. And I did enjoy Rita Moreno too. She can definitely get nominated.

I don’t think anyone really doubts Dunst will be nominated. But she won’t win. AMPAS has had it with honoring the sad and the dreary, which is why The Power of the Dog will be nominated but won’t win Picture (I think it’s a shoo-in for Cinematography and probably Director, though).

Whatever happens with the box office won’t matter, so WSS is likely the Best Picture winner. I think nominations are sure for Zegler, DeBose, Faist, and Moreno. Don’t know about wins.

R350, if WSS flops as bad as it appears to be doing, it's done. Maybe a handful of nominations, that's it.

I think it's the kind of movie that can gain momentum with awards and critics. Especially with the holidays coming. Families can see this.

R333, I knew it! I knew from reading the cast that this "Macbeth" would be terrific (I used to show the excellent McKellen/Dench version in school; saw the Patrick Stewart one on Broadway)!

Frances McDormand was born to play Lady Macbeth.

[quote]Whatever happens with the box office won’t matter, so WSS is likely the Best Picture winner. I think nominations are sure for Zegler, DeBose, Faist, and Moreno. Don’t know about wins.

Sorry, box office might not matter if most theaters are closed and you're Chloe Zhao making a movie where Frances McDormand shits in a bucket. And it might not even matter if you're Paul Thomas Anderson or Kenneth Branagh or Jane Campion.

But if you're Steven Spielberg, the king of the box office for nearly half a century, and you're doing a remake of one of the most beloved musicals of all time, you absolutely can not lose money and win major Oscars.

[quote]But if you're Steven Spielberg, the king of the box office for nearly half a century, and you're doing a remake of one of the most beloved musicals of all time, you absolutely can not lose money and win major Oscars.

This is unfortunately true. Politics and $ matter a lot in certain key quarters of Ampas. If WSS doesn't take off commercially, it could hurt its chances during awards season. I think people thought it would do well, given all the rave reviews this past week. We'll see.

In the same vein, TPofTD's stronger than expected streaming numbers will boost Campion and her cast's profile during voting for both nominations and awards.

Theres no way 2-3 of those actors are not getting nominated. DeBose is a sure thing. I would think Zegler is too. And were it not for DeBose Faist could've run away with the movie. He was quite good.

[quote]AMPAS has had it with honoring the sad and the dreary, which is why The Power of the Dog will be nominated but won’t win Picture

Done with 'sad and dreary' since when? Didn't realize we had actual Academy voters posting here. McDormand, Hopkins, Nomadland certainly weren't laugh fests. They certainly have a fuller track record of celebrating the 'dreary' art house over the blockbuster, especially in BP races in recent years.

Until reviews and BO for The Tragedy of Macbeth are in and a fuller picture of WSS's receipts are in view, Campion's movie remains a high bet, for BP and director (or at least one of these) and most of its leads.

R350 You see those nominations huh? You don’t see good.

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The intensity and persistence of the anti-Kirsten Dunst troll is both impressive and alarming. We get it - you hate Kirsten Dunst. Just let it go now, ffs. You've completely overstated your case, which is pretty irrational anyway.

Poor box office for WSS only confirms the opinion that it was the remake that nobody asked for.

Although she fumbles the ending (for which I partially blame Spielberg) I’ll still include Rachel Zegler among my selections for Best Actress.

I'm looking forward to seeing Tragedy of Macbeth. The previews look pretty awesome.

It’s really great, R364.

[quote] McDormand, Hopkins, Nomadland certainly weren't laugh fests.

That’s the whole point. The Academy has been leaning heavily on sad, dreary, and hopeless for several years now. But we’re heading into the third year of a global pandemic that isn’t abating and has become a political minefield. Right wing nutcases have turned violent worldwide. Life is ugly these days.

Time for something else. WSS has gravitas but classic songs and dance as well. And as much as the anti-WSS nut (there’s only one, up to its old tricks) wants to insist it won’t happen, it’s still one of two or three best-reviewed films of the year, by a master filmmaker, with a cast which has justly been lauded (with one exception). It will be heavily rewarded with nominations & likely with several wins as well.

That's utter nonsense, R366. You're arguing that the evidence that Academy voters want to reward something lighter is that they haven't been rewarding anything like that at all. There isn't even an ounce of logic to that argument.

Absent some actual evidence that voters would prefer to choosing something different from what they've been voting for -- and not some ridiculously maudlin argument that because people are depressed and there are violent right-wing nutjobs, the solution is to give Oscars to West Side Story -- you're pulling that sentiment right out of your ass.

I predict only Rachel Zegler will get a SAG nomination and no one else, not even Moreno. There’s a chance it will sneak in for Best Cast.

SAG member. I voted for her, the Anita girl and I loved the guy that played Riff. Never seen him before

I thought DeBose was competent but too slick as Anita-she certainly won’t be one of my selections. Neither will Mike Faist who I thought was too mannered.

The non singing scenes sold me on DeBose. I like that she worked hard and sold it it to me when she wasn't just relying on her awesome voice.

I loathed this new WSS. But I won't have a problem with deBose getting a nomination. She's fantastic. The only other nominations it should get are Production and Costume Design.

The photography was beautiful even if you didn't like it.

That’s interesting, R370, because Faist was the only cast member that I thought had a novel take on the character. Riff felt like a feral, wounded animal in this version, and that’s not how we think of the Russ Tamblyn character, which worked pretty well in the original.

I liked DeBose, but her strongest moments were just copying from Rita Moreno.

R374I liked Faist a lot. It was a "theatrical" performance But grounded enough to be in a movie. Movie musicals need those performances for me.

It's fucked up this guy is getting so much shit. He fucked a groupie like so many before him. He was a stupid kid. You know he probably fucked lead girl here too. Have you met young people? They're looking to fuck. Unless he brutally abused anyone. He was just acting like a kid, He doesn't need to be crucified for it.

[quote]He fucked a groupie

Who was underage, and said she cried through the whole thing, and he admitted to all of it. This is not "acting like a kid" unless your kid is a sociopath.

Belfast and The Power of the Dog lead the Golden Globe nominations, which we're not supposed to care about this year.

Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) and Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) earned nominations for Best Actor (Drama), while Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) got in for Supporting. So did Troy Kotsur (CODA), continuing his hot streak. No nominations for Jared Leto, Ansel Elgort, Rita Moreno, Penelope Cruz or Frances McDormand.

Golden Globes Nominations Prove A Missed Opportunity For Scandal Stained HFPA:

I find articles like that Deadline one so tiresome. It's all vague assertions about how the Golden Globes failed to restore the credibility that they never really had in the first place, when it's abundantly clear that there is absolutely nothing the HFPA could have done that would have satisfied the author.

I'd prefer the blunt "The Golden Globes suck and you should never pay attention to them ever again," which we know the author really means, to this type of furrowed-brow scolding of the HFPA for not doing something that is both undefinable and unachievable.

As it becomes more widely seen look for Kathryn Hunter’s performance (s) to bump Kirsten Dunst off the SAG, Oscar and BAFTA nominees lists.

The Best Actors of 2021 (according to the NYT):

Nah, Dunst is definitely in for an Oscar nomination. From the GG nominations, I expect it will be Ruth Negga (Passing) who gets replaced by Kathryn Hunter.

‘West Side Story,’ ‘Belfast’ Lead 2022 Critics Choice Film Nominations:

Those are some of the worst pictures I've ever seen from that article, R381. Ruth Negga looks like she escaped an insane asylum, and Gaby Hoffman looks like a sixty year old bag lady.

Gaby Hoffman is so offensive looking-those fucking eyebrows.

[quote]Nah, Dunst is definitely in for an Oscar nomination. From the GG nominations, I expect it will be Ruth Negga (Passing) who gets replaced by Kathryn Hunter.

Negga or even Balfe will get bumped before Dunst will. She's the current frontrunner or #2/3 on most lists. Hunter is a long shot anyway.

She won’t be when The Tragedy of Macbeth is out in theaters on Christmas Day and Netflix on January 14th.

Wow the Oscars are going to be on March 27th this coming year. That's almost April 1st! Have they ever been on that late a date in the modern era?

R389, the Oscars used to air in March and/or April for years before they were moved up to February several years ago.

Critics choice noms are out.

Gaga and Dunst are in. DL implodes.

Ooo…Ann Dowd got in.

R265, Nicole and Javier in that photo don't resemble Lucy and Desi.

They look like (the late) Mary Kay Letourneau and Vili Fualaau.

I just watched CODA and bawled my eyes out. I totally get all the live now for Troy Kostur. Emilia Fox was really fantastic too and should really be in the Best Actress conversation for that performance. And, wow, what a voice.

*all the love

This review of "The Tragedy of Macbeth" is amazing.

Scroll.

Thanks for the link, R396. Really can't wait to see that one!

Good Lord! Fran McDermott’s legs are enormous! Is she ill?

That does look like edema around her calves and ankles unfortunately. Nothing too out of the ordinary for a woman in her 60s who isn't rail thin and has probably been on her feet most of the day.

THR critics pick their best films of 2021:

Just saw Penelope Cruz in Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers. He lays on the melodrama a tad too thick but she’s really fabulous in it.

I thought Parallel Mothers was very good, and agree that Cruz is fabulous. It felt like a little bit of a letdown because I loved Pain and Glory and this one was a step below that, but I liked a lot of the narrative and character choices Almodovar made.

Finally got my SAG Nom Comm booklet, which contains pages and pages of all the prospective nominees in all the categories. Where the fuck is Simon Rex for Red Rocket? He should be included. Simon, call your agent!

CODA is really corny.

So is SPENCER.

Academy Unveils Shortlists in 10 Categories:

Governors Awards Postponed Due to COVID Surge:

Just got digital link for Drive My Car. Uh oh, from what I’m hearing the lead might push out one of my SAG Best Actor selections-probably DiCaprio.

Posting Feinberg's latest just to bump the thread (which seems to have died off lately). "Belfast" appears to be the frontrunner now in all major categories.

I've hardly seen any films this year but Summer of Soul was outstanding. Whoever did the music for The Power of the Dog should win and Cumberbatch and KSM in that film should be nominated. Campion will definitely get a nomination and could be a lock to win as well. Dunst was also excellent.

Summer of Soul was terrific, but I don't think it has a great chance for a nomination because most of it is a compilation of archive footage. That's why people think the Mr. Rogers documentary from a few years ago didn't get nominated, even though that did very well for a documentary.

I think Feinberg is right about Belfast, as much as it's going to annoy critics who would rather have something like The Power of the Dog win. This might be one of those years where the frontrunner establishes itself early, and despite many attempts to reshape the race, it never happens.

Feinberg’s predictions are just bad. The little boy from Belfast is STILL in his top five. Ruth Negga is not a #11 “long shot.” If anything, she’s at #5 or #6.

The person here who fastidiously posts his little forecasts is almost worse. Why don’t you post IndieWire which is at least somewhere near the realm of reality?

Or here's a better idea, R412: you could just not click on the link if it bothers you so much. Or post IndieWire yourself if you think it's so reliable. But either way, please fuck off.

Egads! I'm about 15 minutes into "Spencer" and am about done with Stewart's constant whispery tone!!

Apparently Diana felt a "martyr" ( heavy-handed moment of her opening a book about Anne Boleyn with "martyr" in its title) because she had to eat with the RF.

No way can KS win the Oscar.

R414, Done. Finis. Awful film.

At the end of the day, I think Jessica Chastain will win. I’ve thought that since I saw The Eyes of Tammy Faye and specifically that scene with the man with AIDS.

Spencer is just way too fucking bizarre for the Academy. Kristen has been inching towards a nomination for several years now and I think she deserves one. But not the win. Not for that.

From your post, r416, I've rented "TEoTF."

I enjoyed it but Spencer really is fucking bizarre.

I also enjoyed Being The Ricardos - and was much more impressed by Nicole Kidman's performance- than I expected to be.

Why does Stewart keep showing up as THE frontrunner for Best Actress? She's not good in Spencer, but the critics came all over her. I suppose she'll get nominated, but I can't imagine her actually winning.

Nicole Kidman or Chastain are not winning for anything this year. If Stewart doesn’t win the Oscar is Gaga’s?

It'd be smart to give it to Gaga, R420. Especially since no single performance is a standout for BA.

The viewership will be way up with her as a frontrunner.

Gaga or McDormand (a sleeper, I know. But just wait. Denzel, too.)

I had a dream that Simon Rex got that elusive fifth spot in Best Actor this year (alongside Smith, Garfield, Cumberbatch, and Washington).

I often have prophetic dreams and dreamt Judi Dench would win for SiL.

Mass is a bit stagey.

So ONE successful Oscars dream/prophecy in, what, 65 years of life?

I foresee a new career path you! The new Sylvia Browne!

Don't Look Up was abysmally self-indulgent and I can see the Academy voters jizzing all over themselves to reward it. It's like a dystopian La La Land.

No - Don't Look Up has been losing its heat. It'll get nominations, but the only one that's sure is Leonardo DiCaprio.

Can ‘Spider-Man’ swing into the Oscars?

R428 if one goes by critical consensus Spider Man has a higher Metascore on IMDB than Nightmare Alley, Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci and Don't Look Up which has the lowest of the group with a 50 Metascore. Spider Man is also a huge win at the BO. A Best Picture nod would not be surprising with 10 possible nominees.

I'm all for a Best Picture nom for Spiderman, if that's what people want and will get viewers to tune in, but once it's amongst the 10 nominees - how do they justify giving it to something else? I mean, if it's a contender, it's a contender - and a crowd-pleasing contender at that. I mean, there was a time when the Academy awarded Around The World In 80 Days (1956) Best Picture, presumably because it was entertaining and did big box office. Maybe they need to return to those days.

Plus, if Tom Holland hosted...although apparently his schedule won't permit it (making too many crappy non-Spiderman films). I would tolerate a BP Oscar for Spiderman if it meant they reinstate the role of host to the proceedings because that would make a big difference in the broadcast - two steps in the right direction, actually.

It's still Spider-Man, though, R429. It doesn't have the social commentary of a Black Panther, and it's not a riff on a few different Scorsese movies like Joker. It's a straight down the line comic book movie that audiences really love, but I think it would take more than that for Oscar voters to really consider it.

If any of the performances in Spider-Man had some traction for a nomination or the director were a little more respected than Jon Watts, I might think it has more of a chance. It's not fair that an adult drama with mediocre reviews has a better shot than a comic book movie with better ones, but that's how voters are.

I'm not sure Academy voters should be contemplating the ratings of the actual awards broadcast itself into their reasons for voting for BP. I mean, it's supposed to be an award for the best annual cinematic production, given to one film out of thousands produced each year. There are dozens of cinematic and technical criteria to consider, why would broadcast ratings matter?

I guess, in the end, a best picture nomination for "Spider Man" would be no different than a best picture nomination for "Star Wars" or "Titanic" or "Lord of the Rings," three huge crowd-pleasers that also managed to score major award nominations in their respective years. Sometimes it does happen and should not be considered a "giving in" of sorts by the Academy to popular sway. A well-done film is a well-done film and should be recognized no matter what.

R427 Leo isn’t assured a nomination this year.

Smith, Cumberbatch and Garfield seem set in stone, and Washington looks secure for a nomination as well. That leaves one slot for Leo to fill. Peter Dinklage and Nicolas Cage both beat Leo for a Critics Choice nomination, and the only other possibilities I can think of are Javier Bardem and Bradley Cooper.

They'll probably default to Leo just because they like him so much, unfortunately.

I've hardly heard a word about "Tragedy of Macbeth" other than one local TV critic last night said he placed it among his best. The previews look amazing.

Bradley Cooper will not be getting an Oscar nomination this year.

R434 You are absolutely right!

Will Smith, Peter Dinklage, Bradley Cooper, Denzel Washington, Andrew Garfield, Benedict Cumberbatch, Joaquim Phoenix

Smith is NOT set in stone. It’s looking more and more like the only one from that film getting awards recognition will be Aunjanue Ellis.

I thought Jon Bernthal and the little girl who played Venus, Saniyya Sidney , were standouts of the film too. Always thought they should have a kid or under 18 category.

Looking at the list in r438, I'd call it for Benedict Cumberbatch.

Alas, not enough people will go to see "The Tragedy of Macbeth." And whoever cared about Richard Williams? Desi Arnaz? I'm 72, and I am not in the least interested in a movie about a table reading for "ILL"!

After seeing Red Rocket, I think Simon Rex could be a dark horse potential. He won't win but it's the sort of breakout outlier performance the Academy occasionally likes to pretend to give a shit about.

[quote] I'm 72, and I am not in the least interested

Sure you’re 72. Yeah, we really believe that.

What's your problem, r443---am I lying to be younger or older than you think?

Baby Boomer, Class of 1949, same as Richard Gere, Meryl Streep, Bruce/Caitlin, Billy Joel, et al..

R443 when I was a kid during the 60s/70s reruns of I Love Lucy and The Honeymooners were on TV 5 days a week and I knew most of them by heart as did many and I found Being the Retardos less than enthralling!

In a just world, Udo Kier would be in contention for Best Actor for Swan Song (dir: Todd Stephens).

Does the Academy have "blockbusterphobia"?

The Golden Globes matter even less than ever this year, but they’re giving them out right now, Ariana DeBose and Kodi Smit-McPhee have won for Supporting, Kenneth Branagh won for his Belfast Screenplay, Rachel Zegler and Andrew Garfield took the lead prizes for Comedy/Musical, and Will Smith won Actor in a Drama. Only Actress remains, along with Picture and Director.

None of their winners are as out there as last year’s crazy ceremony (Jodie Foster! Rosamund Pike! Andra Day!), which is a little disappointing.

I know a lot of you around here hate her, but Olivia Colman deserves best actress this year. She was incredible in The Lost Daughter. I thought Chastain was pretty good in Eyes of Tammy Faye, better than Kidman as Lucy. I haven’t seen KS in Spencer or GaGa, but there’s no way either were better than Colman. They may not want to give her another Oscar so soon—but they loaded up Frances McDormand, so I guess it’s possible.

People here aren’t very fond of The Lost Daughter, but even its detractors haven’t found much fault with Colman’s performance. And she seems to be pretty well-liked around here. It’s not like we’re talking about Jennifer Lawrence.

I would be okay with Chastain winning. I think she even has a path to make it happen, given every single contender has some major drawbacks this year. She might not have the accolades of a Cruz or a Colman, but she has a more Oscar-friendly role and narrative than either.

Kristen Stewart was snubbed for a SAG nod.

And so were the Belfast boys and Aunjanue Ellis. I still think Ellis has a pretty good shot, and that Supporting Actor field is so messy that Ciaran Hinds will probably make it in thanks to the Brit bloc. Dornan probably won't thanks to a combination of competition from Hinds and lack of respect (somewhat akin to Stewart, although at least people like his movie).

I do love that Troy Kotsur has gone from a longshot contender to possibly the strongest competitor behind Kodi Smit-McPhee.

The SAG BA are interesting. Gaga, Chastain, Colman, Kidman and JHud.

The first four were almost locks. But JHud replaces the biggest sure thing: Stewart.

This is the first real non critic award. Guess Stewart's peers aren't so keen on her?

There were reports of people walking out of Spencer during SAG screenings, which is always a terrible sign. And Stewart was never the sure thing people assumed she was. Film Twitter doesn't vote on the Oscars.

People have continued to doubt Kidman, but she's pretty clearly the frontrunner now.

I'm glad to see Ruth Negga nominated for Passing, that shows the nom com had some real taste.

[...]

I'm a little cautious about Negga because Netflix movies tend to overperform at SAG, but I'm very pleased she got in. I wish Tessa Thompson had a better chance at a nomination, though, because I think both deserve it.

I think Jessie Buckley gets Negga’s slot for the Oscar. The Lost Daughter is much more high profile than Passing even though both are on Netflix.

R458 I agree. I think Jessie Buckley ran away with that movie. She was wonderful.

PGA Nominations are out. Most of the expected films made it in, although among the films at the fringes, Being the Ricardos and tick, tick... BOOM! made it in, while House of Gucci and The Tragedy of Macbeth did not.

No Spider-Man: No Way Home either, which probably kills its chances. If any group were to nominate it, it would have been the Producers Guild.

How the Oscar best picture race stands as voting begins this week:

And WGA also announced their nominees, which really don't mean much since the two front-runners in each category (Belfast, The Power of the Dog) were deemed ineligible.

Being the Ricardos, Don't Look Up, The French Dispatch, King Richard and Licorice Pizza made the list for Original, while CODA, Dune, Nightmare Alley, tick, tick.... BOOM! and West Side Story are the nominees for Adapted.

Oscar Voting Starts Now! Academy Members, You Have Five And A Half Days And Counting:

Why the Oscars Have Become Harder Than Ever to Predict:

Last one of the day. DGA nominations went to the five people everyone expected: PTA, Branagh, Campion, Spielberg and Villlenueve.

First-Time Director nominations went to three celebrity first-time directors (Maggie Gyllenhaal, Rebecca Hall, Lin-Manuel Miranda) as well as Tatiana Huezo (Prayers for the Stolen), Michael Sarnoski (Pig) and Emma Seligman (Shiva Baby).

PTA doesn’t deserve it for that piece of shit Licorice Pizza. I’d have put Joachim Trier in that slot for his superb direction of The Worst Person in the World.

It'll probably be the Drive My Car director who bumps out one of the DGA five.

And people seem to think that Branagh is the one that the directors branch is likely to snub, but with the exception of Jane Campion, they all seem equally vulnerable.

Branagh for the snub!

I didn’t think The Worst Person In The World was that great. It was kind of meh.

Really, R469? I really loved it. The female lead is wonderful and so are the two guys who play her love interests.

I liked the cast but it was neither a romantic comedy or a satisfying drama. It was okay.

Variety has published an Actors on Actors interview with Kristen Stewart and an animatronic Nicole Kidman which is interesting.

R471, it’s certainly not a romantic comedy. I don’t know why it’s being described as one.

SAG-AFTRA’s doing a clever thing this year of doing live Q&As with actors interviewing nominees. You have to RSVP to them from an email invitation. I’m passing on Mindy Kaling interviewing Nicole Kidman but I’m looking forward to Eddie Redmayne interviewing Andrew Garfield. That should be cute as hell.

Just saw Nightmare Alley and yeah, it's not getting nominated for any awards except for maybe set design and hair/makeup.

Aunjanue Elllis better take Cate Blanchett’s drag act slot on Tuesday.

I have a feeling that Marlee Matlin will surprise in supporting.

So might Troy Kotsur. They were by far the best parts of CODA.

No BAFTA nomination for Dunst. At least somewhere her less than outstanding role has been noted.

Surprised that there’s no BAFTA nomination for Andrew Garfield.

Also, no BAFTA nominations for Kidman, Colman, Chastain and Denzel, among others. They've never been perfect and have always had certain biases (Denzel has never received even a single nomination from them), but their jury system has made them a poor indicator for acting nominations at the Oscars.

I think this BAFTA nod really helps Alana Haim’s chance at securing an Oscar nomination. I have a feeling that Licorice Pizza will over-perform expectations on nomination morning.

[...]

Ooo, you’re right, R483. Good point.

Just got email invitation for a screening of The Eyes of Tammy Faye with an in person Q&A with Jessica Chastain. Bitch is working for every damn vote.

Brits celebrate fuglies like Robbie Williams and Sally Hawkins. The BAFTAs aren’t the most reliable bellweathers for the Oscars. Haim ain’t getting a nom.

But I like that BAFTA has been going their own way - what’s the point of predicting the Oscars? These awards bodies need to have their own identities, esp. with Oscar’s fading fortunes. BAFTA also sits between the U.S. and European markets and also need to acknowledge Britain’s own independent film production. Of course they’re not going to mirror the Oscars nom for nom. It’s good that they’re stepping out of Oscar's shadow.

It’s not of any relevance to American audiences, they’re playing to a different audience. Good for them.

Have seen House of Gucci. It should be subtitled “Proof, as if it were needed, that Ridley Scott is not Martin Scorsese.” Ridley Scott can’t even do a good needle drop. Dear Ridley: if you’re going to fill your film with needle drops at least understand that they’re not meant to be bog-standard pop tunes that everyone already knows.

I mean, there wasn’t ONE moment in it that was AT ALL moving, it had no dimension at all. I can see why Jared Leto is getting all the attention. I did prefer Adam Driver with highlights though.

Also finally saw Red Rocket. By any measure, Simon Rex gives AT LEAST one of the Top 5 performances of the year, personally I think THE BEST. I doubt he’ll be nominated but what a show.

I like the cinematography too. Near the end when Rex was silhouetted in shadow, it was very effective. He has a better prosthetic than Marky Mark did. Even if it lost its way a bit in the third act, this film was worth the wait. I would love to see Rex get nominated.

R489, Simon Rex’s excellent performance wasn’t listed in the pages of those to be considered for a SAG-AFTRA Award. At the very least he should get a public apology.

Red Rocket wasn’t SAG-eligible. So it was never considered.

That can’t be true, R491. His performance was mentioned in some of the trade papers I received when I was on the Nominating Committee.

Nightmare Alley is visually stunning with great production design but Bradley Cooper is very much miscast; Cooper needs to be busy as an actor, he doesn’t really excel in repose. He doesn’t really inhabit this role.

That’s what IMDb says R492.

Nightmare Alley needed Joaquin Phoenix not Bradley Cooper.

“ Red Rocket's Simon Rex was ineligible because his film was made outside of SAG-AFTRA's Low Budget Feature Agreement.)”

And yet performances from films shot in other countries can be nominated. The ones in projects shot in the UK are under British Equity jurisdiction. How the hell is this fair?

R441 here. I take it back about "King Richard"; Will Smith was excellent.

Just watched "House of Gucci." First off, I was really disappointed in that this wasn't really a murder story. That takes place in the final 6 minutes or so. There is no investigation or trial shown. So whatever.

Gaga is darn good and resembles the real Patrizia. Adam Driver was adequate, but the severe change in the characterization of Mauricio needed more rationale than just "Oooh, Mauricio sees a blonde he used to know." Oh, wait; it's really that Patrizia caused his estrangement from his family that he never wanted to be a part of, pre-Patrizia.

If any actor in this movie deserves a Supporting Oscar nomination it should be Al Pacino. He seems a Gucci and not simply Pacino being Pacino. Jared Leto is fine (completely unrecognizable) and not nearly as OTT as some negative reviews had. (For all the talk of Paolo's execrable designs, and mixing brown with pastels, we never see any.)

Some viewers might not "get" or like the Italian-ness, but as a Sicilian-American, I thought all the emotions rang true.

I did wonder why the script eschewed good old Italian swearing in favor of Anglo-Saxon!

House of Gucci seemed primarily concerned with production design rather than detailing the business aspect, which seemed like an afterthought, or family, whom are depicted more like watching a chess board than any human depiction. I could tell from the first few mins. with the usage of all the Moroder music how lazy it was going to be. Gaga was fine but the role as scripted lack subtlety; there was none of the fine detail or dramatic slights I remember from a similarly garish character like Julianne Moore as Barbara Baekeland in Savage Grace. Again, Scott never gets close to portraying people here so much as caricatured chess pieces. Leto’s performance delivered less than advertised which was probably a good thing; I didn’t find him jarring at all. He was as convincing as anyone else in a movie depicting Italians speaking English all the time. For all that was at stake, none of the Gucci’s ever appeared to break much of a sweat and, in the end, there was only one broken dish.

Cooper’s performance improved immensely in Nightmare Alley, once the story moved on from the carnival stuff. Haven’t quite made it to the end of the film yet though. Still more interested in the Tyrone Power version.

The problem with Smith’s character in King Richard, as written, is he just doesn’t go anywhere. The arc is in the girls’ story. It’s like a supporting performance that is given centre stage in a film that should be about Venus and Serena, as they are where all the character development would be.

R500/r495, Richard Williams is shown as the motivating force behind, in front of, and surrounding Venus and Serena.

He is the father, teacher, coach, cheerleader, disciplinarian, manager, and drill sergeant to his daughters; and philandering husband (same as Jim Bakker, Desi Arnaz, and Mauricio Gucci [Gucci's extracurricular get the most screen-time, interestingly]) to Oracene.

Plus, we do see the girls' story arc, such as it can be for characters not much beyond their early teens. They go from giggling children to typical pre-teens to earnest learners to dedicated and successful athletes who also are proud young Black women.

This, while their father steers the family ship through the rough waters of low income, street crime, and racism.

You don't have to tell me, R501. It's just not a very interesting story arc for his character; at the end of the film he goes, "I was right." Which we already know b/c his daughters are champion tennis players.

Not sure of what it is you're trying to persuade me.

King Richard is a movie I never need to see again.

Hmmm, Oscars...

I don't know them.

Well, I guess, r502, is to persuade that there IS an arc, which first you said there wasn't.

That we know the result already is often the case of all true stories, no? I mean---the ship sinks!

But should Will Smith win an Oscar? Not IMO. Neither should Bardem. I'm hoping Garfield ("TT...B") and Cumberbatch are more worthy.

One comment about "House of Gucci": The story, the quality of Jeremy Irons and Al Pacino notwithstanding, could easily have been a made-for-TV movie. It seriously---AS DEPICTED---did not deserve a full-blown film production.

I can't see any audience caring about Mauricio's murder, except maybe to cheer Patrizia, the Italian Betty Broderick.

"HoG" completely shut out of Acting/BP noise!

Chastain in!

Looks like "TPotD" will win big!

I meant "awards," not "noise," but okay, noise!

Cannot link anymore; my links circle back to DL. What gives?

I'll try again.

Of the 10 nominees for either Best Actor or Best Actress, 7--7!--- are in movies NOT nominated for Best Picture.

Denzel, but not "Macbeth." Bardem and Kidman, but not "Being the Ricardos." Stewart, but not "Spencer." Chastain, but not "The Eyes of Tammy Faye." Colman, but not "The Lost Daughter." Cruz, but not "Parallel Mothers."

Why do they keep giving Spielberg nominations for his shitty films?

It's eight, R509. Only Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) and Smith (King Richard) are in Best Picture nominees. None of the Lead Actresses are from Picture nominees, and tick, tick.... Boom! wasn't nominated for Best Picture, either. That has to be the lowest correlation between Picture and Lead Acting since the expanded field, and possibly ever.

R511, Just came here to amend my post with that about Andrew Garfield and "Tick, Tick,... Boom."

8/10! Is this a record?

I mean, how are all these acclaimed starring roles in less than worthy movies?

And how are all those lauded movies without any Oscar-worthy star turns?

IDGI.

Except that "TPotD," Benedict, and Kirsten D. are in like Flynn.

I can only hope Stewart is shut out. I wouldn't be dismayed if Bardem wins.

R512, I think the record is only a single lead nominee coming from a Best Picture nominee. That was when Helen Mirren won for The Queen; none of her competitors nor any of the Lead Actor nominees were from Picture nominees that year.