Nate Silver: Without winning Pennsylvania, "Biden becomes an underdog"

It's a good thing Pennsylvania is voting for Biden above the polls' margins of error, then.

Ugh, thanks bitch.

I hope you're not all shocked when Biden loses tomorrow.

Years of buying popularity by telling you what you want to hear, then weaseling at the last minute. Nate is such a phony

Does Nate Silver not wash his hair?

Truly cruel to post that pic of Nate.

You are a true DLer. 😀

The media's been playing the rubes for months with this "Biden is sure to win" bullshit. He's going to lose bigly. They prefer the narrative of a cliffhanger - better for ratings - and so they created that narrative.

Nate is a self-loathing fat greasy balding pig.

r3 = r7 = fascist boot-licker.

Is that a recent pic?! That is some yuck as fuck hair. He should just buzz it down at this point.

[R9] The usual "mature" response of a dumb, brainwashed "liberal."

The only way Biden loses Pennsylvania, you fascist fuck @r11, is if you people physically interfere with the vote count and/or get it stopped via the courts and/or legislature.

In other words - by cheating. By not counting legitimately cast votes. Which means you don't believe in the people's right to choose their leadership.

Fucking fascist.

[R12] He's going to lose, idiot. Fair and square - just like your other clown, Hillary Clinton. Biden's polling below her in all of the swings state. Biden's toast.

How does Donald Trump's feces-encrusted asshole taste, fascist tool @r13? Do you make "yum yum" noises while you lick it?

Even Iowa is breaking for Trump.

When even Rasmussen has Biden ahead in PA, you know he's in great shape there.

r17 - go French-kiss 1000 strangers in a crowded room, you deluded moron.

Girl is ugly

What he means is that if Biden does worse than expected in Pennsylvania, he will likely also underperform in other battlegrounds like Michigan and Wisconsin. Same reason I knew Trump was going to win last time as soon as Virginia was too close to call.

[quote] They prefer the narrative of a cliffhanger - better for ratings - and so they created that narrative.

True. There's actually a very decent chance that Biden will win in a landslide.

R21 Well, it seems this time we don't get that problem with Virginia.

Trump was very lucky this time, i think a lot of far left democrats that didn't vote last time voted this one, that should be enough for a comfortable win, but it'll be a scare after what happened 4 years ago

R24, you start out with a “Marxist” quote that has only been attributed to Marx on right-wing blogs. Then you go on to assert serial falsehoods and think gays are going to fall for it. If you seriously think Trump is going to win in a landslide, I have even greater concern about your mental health.

Why won’t r3 bet me $100 that Biden loses tomorrow?

All r3 has to do is sign up anonymously with MyBuddyBet.com and bet me $100 that Trump is going to win.

I’ve been offering this money for 2 months now and Borises on DL talk a big game.

But their money is never where their troll mouths are.

Why, oh why?

r25, You Trump cultists are the ones who hate democracy. So far this year Republicans have brought 40 lawsuits against state and local governments over voter registration and vote-counting. In precisely ZERO of these have they tried to expand voting rights - instead, they are doing everything they can to PREVENT people from voting, and from having their votes counted.

You hate democracy.

Talk about projection.

Iowa is breaking for Biden and Greenfield in the latest polls, liar @ R15 who’s too chickenshit to bet money on this.

What would happen if polling places are burned down and all the ballots are gone?

We get it, r16.

Everyone must obey the Law and Order except Donald Trump, crooked cops, senators and terrorist militias.

MAGAt R3 has no posting history except for this thread. Did you pay for an account just to troll here?

F&F r24 with the Fake News and slander.

That’s all Republicans have anymore.

We know Trump and Putin like to project — the world sees through it and they’re fed up with Shitler.

Where do these Trumpster Trash Freaks find Datalounge?

R34 How does Trump's shit taste inside your mouth today, MAGAt?

Boris is melting! ABSOLUTELY MELTING!!!!!

LOL

{quote] The Marxist playbook advises that one should pre-emptively accuse one's opponent of what one is guilty of and/or flip the script to invert reality.

Like: "The Biden family is corrupt and getting money from foreign countries!"

So how exactly will Russia steal this for Trump?

Still nobody willing to bet on the election results.

This stupid guy needs to buy a wig.

Do you see how Trump supporters' tantrums are getting more hysterical and desperate as I predicted?

RATS ON A SINKING SHIP.

Poor Boris / r3 / r16.

We get

[quote]The wink wink to the riots and looting followed by bowing down to criminals was the last straw.

Followed by:

[quote]What would happen if polling places are burned down and all the ballots are gone?

r29 is having a psychotic break, like his precious hero Adolf. You can't have it both ways, Adolf!

[R44] Not the same poster - P.S. - your wig is crooked, Karen.

You've been informed three zillion times that you chose to become a Boris when you endorsed the crooked, Russian-bribed agent with the pro-Russian agenda named Donald Trump, r34.

It's doesn't matter where in the world you were born or what your citizenship is. You chose to collaborate with Russia, which makes you a traitor to and adversary of the United States.

Idiot.

Yes, we're absolutely certain you don't have legions of sock puppet accounts to drum up false enthusiasm for the Trumpster Fire, r45 / AuntieOP69 / Boris / Natasha.

You're getting nowhere, R48

Nowhere

Одно́ из са́мых изве́стных привиде́ний Санкт-Петербу́рга – э́то привиде́ние импера́тора Па́вла Пе́рвого. Э́то привиде́ние живёт в Миха́йловском за́мке, где жил и был уби́т импера́тор.

Сейча́с в Миха́йловском за́мке нахо́дится Ру́сский музе́й. Сотру́дники музе́я не лю́бят остава́ться там ве́чером. Они́ гово́рят, что в пусто́м дворце́ открыва́ются и закрыва́ются две́ри и скрипи́т пол. Охра́нники иногда́ ви́дят фигу́ру челове́ка со свечо́й в руке́. Когда́ э́то случа́ется они́ ти́хо говоря́т ей: «До́брой но́чи, Ва́ше Вели́чество».

Biden will will PA because he's from Delaware. Voters are dumb. The big mistake the Democrats made last time was nominating Hillary. Not even NYers liked her.

Когда́ импера́тору бы́ло 47 (со́рок семь) лет, он был заду́шен в своём за́мке. За не́сколько дней до сме́рти, он говори́л, что ви́дит кровь на бе́лых сте́нах свое́й спа́льни. По́сле сме́рти импера́тора в за́мке до́лгое вре́мя никто́ не жил. Го́род был по́лон стра́шных исто́рий о привиде́нии.

Ко́шка – э́то одно́ из наибо́лее популя́рных дома́шних живо́тных. В настоя́щее вре́мя в ми́ре живёт о́коло 600 (шестисо́т) миллио́нов дома́шних ко́шек.

Одна́ко Росси́я никогда́ не выи́грывала чемпиона́т ми́ра по футбо́лу. Поэ́тому ру́сские боле́льщики о́чень пессимисти́чны. Они́ приду́мывают шу́тки про росси́йских футболи́стов, но наде́ются глубоко́ в душе́, что когда́-нибудь Росси́я то́же победи́т! Како́й вид спо́рта са́мый попул́ярный в ми́ре? Коне́чно, футбо́л! Э́то люби́мая игра́ в 160 (ста шести́десяти) стра́нах ми́ра. Миллио́ны люде́й игра́ют в футбо́л на у́лице, в па́рках, и коне́чно, на футбо́льном по́ле.

В Росси́и э́тот вид спо́рта то́же о́чень популя́рен. Мно́гие лю́ди игра́ют в футбо́л с друзья́ми по выходны́м и смо́трят его́ по телеви́зору.

Silver is proof there are gay virgins.

Is Boston considered Russia?

[quote]The Marxist playbook advises that one should pre-emptively accuse one's opponent of what one is guilty of and/or flip the script to invert reality.

Marxism > Nazism

Кто-нибудь засрал мне в рот!

[quote] Trump was very lucky this time, i think a lot of far left democrats that didn't vote last time voted this one,

Huh? How is Trump lucky?

[quote] Biden will will PA because he's from Delaware.

Oh, dear.

Polls are moving.

Oh, Trump Troll, at r48 etc., the fact that you've now posted at least 12 times in this thread does not mean your idol will win tomorrow. You can keep posting your nonsense until your fingers fall off and it won't put Trump any closer to victory.

This thread is half blanked out for me. I bet the election night thread will also be a bunch of people I have on ignore.

Holy shit that troll is prolific!

Must be waiting on his borscht.

It’s Ukraine, not the Ukraine, r24.

I REALLY don't think you guys are gonna like marxism much.

Donald Trump is a socialist.

Lindsey Graham is a socialist.

Mitch McConnell is a socialist.

Otherwise, they would privatize the military, the post office, public utilities, Social Security, Medicare, etc.

But none of those commies are willing to run against government socialism.

Э́та неде́ля о́чень весёлая. Ка́ждый день есть осо́бое заня́тие. Наприме́р, во вто́рник прово́дятся ра́зные и́гры на све́жем во́здухе. Ка́ждый мо́жет приня́ть в них уча́стие. В сре́ду ну́жно пойти́ в го́сти к тёще и пое́сть у неё блин́ы. В четве́рг мо́жно ката́ться на са́нках. А в воскресе́нье сжига́ют соло́менное чу́чело, кото́рое символизи́рует зи́му.

Ма́сленица – э́то весёлый и краси́вый ру́сский пра́здник. Э́тот пра́здник дли́тся неде́лю. Э́то после́дняя неде́ля пе́ред Вели́ким Посто́м. Иногда́ ма́сленицу называ́ют «бли́нная неде́ля», так как в э́то вре́мя ну́жно гото́вить и есть блины́. Почему́ и́менно блины́? Потому́ что блины́ – кру́глые и жёлтые, как со́лнце! В э́тот пра́здник ру́сские лю́ди ра́дуются со́лнцу и весне́ и провожа́ют до́лгую зи́му.В э́то воскресе́нье ну́жно проси́ть проще́ния у всех свои́х бли́зких и друзе́й. Поэ́тому ру́сские лю́ди звоня́т друг дру́гу по телефо́ну или пи́шут сообще́ния и про́сят проще́ния за всё плохо́е, что они́ сде́лали. И коне́чно, в э́тот день то́же ну́жно есть блины́!

GOP: Socialism for the rich

R67 once said 'Trump's been in office 45 months. He's withstood the full blown, in-your-face anal exam of every orifice and he may stretch the truth (much like your stockbroker), but they've got nothing. The man's a Boy Scout. I have no clue why so many would want an obvious known, unindicted extortionist and a narc ex ADA to replace him. Good Fuckin Luck!'

In Virginia, nothing matters until the Fairfax County vote is called in. And they are always late. But it goes blue big time.

Nate's latest poll on PA shows Trump ahead +1. Please tell me that Susquehanna poll is an outlier.

Fourteen PA polls were posted on 538 today, r73, and only two of them (one of which is Trafalgar) show Trump in the lead. So, yeah, I think you can safely say it's an outlier.

But the Susquehanna was the only one for Nov 1st data, R74.

Bible Codes = Trump winner.

Biden sits with Hillary.

No it's not, r75. Eleven of the 14 polls include data from Nov. 1. Susquehanna is the only one that claims to include data from today, but I don't think that's a big deal, especially since 538 only gives it a C rating.

R44 = R48 is crazy. Have you taken your paranoid schizo drug, auntie?

I hope she doesn't have a massive heart attack before she knows the results on Tuesday though. Heaven forbid.

I love how Boris thinks he can split hairs over who's a Russian troll versus who's a Russian pawn.

Thank you, r79.

That's another assclown we'll remember to disregard in the future once Biden wins.

R82 Strange how you Trump cultists worship a man whose idol used to be the head of the KGB. And who is bestest buddies with the worst Communist dictator in the world.

I'm a Bernie lunatic, I voted for Biden just like Bernie told me to and Berners' support for Biden is up from Hillary Clinton's in 2016.

And the sky is blue, Nate. A whole thread dedicated to the obvious.

This explains why the Trump campaign is so desperate to find out where the completed Pennsylvania ballots are being kept - so they can go in and interfere with the count.

They are beneath contempt.

[quote] based on a model that goes back over a century and has successfully predicted 25 of the last 27 elections

You want to explain how this model was created over a century ago and predicted winners ever since?

Here’s the thing. Trump has RUINED this country. The people posting that he will win think that what’s happening right now is fucking great. I don’t know who will win tomorrow, but I am an activist, and I have worked my ass off to help elect Biden, and win all the way down the ticket in my state. Some, and I mean very little by the word “some”, descents points were made here. It is true that he’s had energized rallies. It is true that we have been surprised by black men who publicly announced their support for Trump. Sure — all true. But you are discounting the flat number REALITY which is that we are the majority, not you. Sorry mother fuckers!!!! So if we can just get ONE friend each to go vote who normally don’t, we trump you at all the polls. So tomorrow night, I WILL return to this thread to formally tell you where to order cyanide tablets (I’ll pay) and then maybe you can stream your suicide for me to watch with a glass of wine? Fuck Trump, fuck you, FUCK Russia, FUCK the GOP. You are the biggest vaginas on planet earth, but your greatest sin isn’t your wimpiness....it is your stupidity.

Oh! I forgot to mention.....we are in unprecedented times, so old models that were reliable in the past aren’t reliable now. Eat shit.

[quote]Vulgar, trashy oaf.

Says person who worships Donald J. Trump.

Self-awareness really isn't your strong suit, is it, dear?

Do you want to bet me $100 on MyBuddyBet.com that Trump will win this election, r89?

You can sign up completely anonymously and prove my bet wrong that Biden is going to win. Today is your last chance.

What are you waiting for? You have a century of correctly predicted winners.

[quote] I am an activist

Really?

Nate is the original Concern Troll

[quote] No candidate who's garnered less than 75 % of the primary vote in his respective party has won. Biden got 46% of the Democrat vote, while Trump got 94% of the Republican vote.

Biden ran against numerous other Dems . Trump had no real competition. Of course, Trump got a larger percentage of the vote. The above is a just another way to say that the incumbent usually wins. But Trump is not a normal incumbent and 2020 is not a normal year. Oh, and Trump's base has shrunk since 2016.

That's right, cut and run, Boris.

Just like Putin did in the mainland Ukraine.

Nate is even uglier than Barbra Streisand.

Some smart people could tell me then what will happen if the ballots are burned and destroyed? An honest curiosity. Will people have to vote again or what?

[quote] Apparently the model was applied retroactively utilizing old data

That isn't "predicting."

I hate it when you can tell someone is hygienically challenged from a distance. I wouldn't want to cross paths with him, I'd step into the street to avoid.

I'm not splitting hairs. This is a con. You can't retroactively predict something. The model hasn't predicted anything. He has created a model that fits past data and says zip about the future.

R91-- By the time Biden is declared the winner, Putin will have had it shot, so unfortunately, you are not going to be able to watch it commit suicide

My hope is that PA will be irrelevant. All eyes are on FL, GA, NC and Texas tomorrow night. If trump sweeps those it’s time to start panicking.

New 538 podcast just now.

Why is a Trump supporter posting on Datalounge? Get a grip. Republicans want to gas you.

Trump will win Florida.

Yeah, Trump will get Florida. I think Biden will get Georgia. It will come down to North Carolina. It’s nice to dream about Texas but I don’t think it’s happening this cycle.

Needless to say, the coming days are going to be a hot mess.

I do declare! Does Miss Silver predict I'll win my race against that negro brute?

R91, will you marry me?

Why are people making predictions on their hunches? Stop throwing in the towel before Election Day.

r73, it's a "C" rated poll though, so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

Biden will win. The House of Trump will fall tomorrow.

R115, I DO my love.....I bring my passion to the bedroom too. 😏

I’m concerned about the senate. If Biden wins but has an R senate we can kiss the next two years goodbye.

If Biden just gets Georgia, then it's all over for Shitler r113.

Besides, Biden has the momentum in FL right now with the lead in early voting.

Sssssshhhhhhh r121!!! You’ll wake the trolls!!!

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Wow!!! They didn’t come back lol!!!! They’re busy in other places right now.

538 is done with forecasting. As of this morning, on 538, Trump is squatting on borrowed time. He has a slight path but is largely considered done.

[quote] 538 is done with forecasting.

Well, considering it's election day...

[quote] Well, considering it's election day...

Their words, not mine.

I know. I was mocking them, R125, not you.

Ah ok, sorry for the misinterpretation!

Well as of this second 538 has Biden at 51.8%. Wow. Link will change through the day.

JFC, I literally might have a goddamn heart attack today. I CANNOT take this waiting. I just need Joe. Thanks for listening. Here is another interesting link.

Florida should have some preliminary results by 7:30 pm. For once they prepared well enough to deal with the mail in ballots.

NBC reporting that "insiders" in Trump campaign are concerned about Pennsylvania. Not enough turnout to defeat mail in...

Trump campaign has internal concerns about chances in Pennsylvania

While Trump voiced confidence about the election publicly on Tuesday, there are signs of internal concerns about the campaign's chances in the key battleground of Pennsylvania.

“The team in Pennsylvania was not as prepared as it should be in a state that could decide the presidency," a person with direct knowledge of Trump campaign operations told NBC News.

Detailing the concern about turnout in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, the source said, “When you bank your entire election on Election Day turnout, you have to ask people if they’re going to stand in line for two hours.”

The Trump campaign moved some resources from Ohio to Pennsylvania in the past couple of days, the person said, but added, “You can’t fix it at this point.”

The source said the campaign should have focused more on mail-in ballots, but conceded that effort was undermined by the president’s own rhetoric.

A second person with direct knowledge of the Trump campaign operations said what is happening Tuesday in Pennsylvania is “not ideal.”

It's going to be a very long night, best to nap this afternoon if possible.

Trump wins reelection....and fairly easily....

[R95] Consider the $100 I saved you on that bet part of your Trump stimulus - asshole.

I think Nate is done.

If this victory holds up, Dems are gonna RIOT!!

r137, just fyi this is where I put my money

Whoever wins the electoral count shouldl be in the low to mid range which I covered. Looks like I'll do quite well if trends continue, and if they don't my hedges at least will still break even. I see one Biden supporter appears to have lost $17,000. But do keep going on about your $100 bet.

R139 just stfu will ya? Go hang out on some Republican dump site. I'll be laughing when more of you Trump ass lickers die from covid, lack of healthcare, and being poor.

See I live in a RICH blue state, so I'll be fine. We provide safety nets so you don't lose everything. You fucks can keep asking why shit is going so bad like dumb dumbs. Keep voting for recessions (Reagan, Bush, Trump) and see how far you get!

Rallies and voter registration drives matter. Even during a pandemic

So Nate was right?

Uncle Joe has won without needing Pennsylvania. Go eat shit and die, fat, ugly Trumptards!!!

Nathan is never wrong. He didn’t say without PA, a Biden win would be impossible. He said it would be hard.

Looks like Biden is doing it without PA

Thank you, the flipped Arizona for saving the world!

Annnnnnnnnd......Here comes PA!

So now Nate was right?