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Joe Biden Maintains Historic Polling Lead With 100 Days Until Election

[QUOTE] The surveys conducted over the past month put Biden in an enviable position. He has a greater advantage over the incumbent going into the final few months of the campaign than any challenger since Bill Clinton in the summer of 1992.

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by Anonymousreply 559Yesterday at 1:20 PM

Previous thread:

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by Anonymousreply 107/22/2020
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by Anonymousreply 207/22/2020

It depends on who controls the voting machines in the key states.

by Anonymousreply 307/22/2020

The polls from today narrowed the gap and show Biden below 50%. He doesn’t have it in the bag.

by Anonymousreply 407/22/2020

Proof r4, or shut up.

by Anonymousreply 507/22/2020

Now just stay alive old Joe.

by Anonymousreply 607/22/2020

Don’t get distracted by this. Vote

by Anonymousreply 707/22/2020

It's true, r5, BUT... They're Hill and Rasmussen polls.

POLLTROLL: it also looks like YouGov is down 2. Any commentary?

by Anonymousreply 807/22/2020

R4 As we've said a gazzillion times:

1. One single poll can only be understood in the context of others... and other over time. Polls are incomplete snapshots unless viewed in this way.

2. It was always going to tighten up....

3. But this single poll doesn't mean it is...

by Anonymousreply 907/22/2020

I’ve always said the polls would tighten. That’s why I’ve been imploring you Eeyores to enjoy this ride while it’s nice and smooth because choppy waters are ahead. Then Jesus, MARY and Joseph will you boys really be panicking. 😂 It doesn’t mean we won’t be victorious, however, just that it will probably be more like a 5 point national vote victory rather than 15 points. 300 something electoral votes rather than 400.

We have the better candidate and the better platform for middle America. Be vigilant, but you should also be CONFIDENT. 😎

by Anonymousreply 1007/22/2020

Trump hasn't even BEGUN to unleash his wrath against Biden. And there's actually some critical ammo that will stick in people's minds. Like Hunter. Like "socialism". Like anarchy in the streets. Biden better be ready to fight back and fight back hard or he's doomed.

by Anonymousreply 1107/22/2020

R9 it's not one poll.

by Anonymousreply 1207/22/2020

R8, as Harry Enten said today, the current polling is still consistent with a 9-10 point Biden national lead.

However, there does appear to be some difference between the live-interview polls (which are better for Biden) and non live-interview polls (where Biden leads by less).

It could be that the reason Biden's lead shrinks several points in non live-interview polls is because Trump supporters are more willing to voice their support when they are not talking to a live-interviewer. As Enten says, Biden leads by 12 in live-interview polls, but that lead drops to 8 in non-interview polls. There will be more analysis of the possible reasons why.

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by Anonymousreply 1307/22/2020

POLLTROL: As always...thank you!

by Anonymousreply 1407/22/2020

[QUOTE] Trump hasn't even BEGUN to unleash his wrath against Biden.

Gtfoh. Hasn’t begun to unleash his wrath? The man and his Pacs have already spent $100 million mostly on negative ads against Joe. Don’t you remember his campaign manager bragging about the “Death Star” a few months ago? And where has it gotten them, R11?

by Anonymousreply 1507/22/2020

Authoritarian dictators are rarely voted out.

by Anonymousreply 1607/22/2020

Nobody really pays that much attention until after Labor Day. That's when the fun begins.

by Anonymousreply 1707/22/2020

Maybe in the past, R17, but with a viral pandemic that has gripped the nation, effecting every citizen on earth? When most Americans were trapped at home for months in lockdown, and senior citizens STILL are? We’ve BEEN paying attention. This isn’t 2016 or 2012 or 2008. Most Americans aren’t out at the beach or traveling or having big cookouts without a care in the world. We’re HOME. We’re FRIGHTENED. We’re paying attention RIGHT NOW. And we don’t like what we see from our so-called President.

by Anonymousreply 1807/22/2020

What a shock that I already had R4 blocked as a troll. That said, I'm with Senator Kamala Harris on this one - DO NOT get comfortable until this group of dumb, gangster thugs are voted out of office (not just tRump - we need to flip the Senate as well). Fight as if we were behind in the polls and our life depends on it; it's always complacency that kills the Dem voter turnout on election day. Never forget how good Rethugs are when it comes to cheating and stealing elections. We need to sweep this year.

by Anonymousreply 1907/22/2020

r4 a troll? I never would have guessed...lol

by Anonymousreply 2007/22/2020

[quote]Trump hasn't even BEGUN to unleash his wrath against Biden.

Fuck off, Jared.

by Anonymousreply 2107/22/2020

Remember that polls tightened after the Kavanaugh hearings and pundits wondered if Democrats had squandered away the big blue wave that had been predicted by everyone. Then the election happened and Democrats got a historic amount of votes for a midterm election. The same thing is going to happen in November.

by Anonymousreply 2207/22/2020

Won't the October surprise be the Obama book? I can see it being promoted the end of September and Obama doing his book tour the first two weeks if October.

by Anonymousreply 2307/22/2020

I wonder, r23, would that book have to be vetted by the White House the way Bolton’s book was?

by Anonymousreply 2407/22/2020

Internal polls are terrible for republicans. It’s why they are freaking out. Biden may take AK.

by Anonymousreply 2507/22/2020

Biden and his team know what they’re up against.

by Anonymousreply 2607/22/2020

Trump has chased away his own base.

Watch. And tell me if you think she’s going to vote for Trump again,

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by Anonymousreply 2707/22/2020

I think that the wall of moms will solidly and decidedly turn the election in Biden's favor.

C'mon! You're going to tear gas moms????

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by Anonymousreply 2807/22/2020

You've never met my mom, r28. I'd gas her in a heartbeat.

by Anonymousreply 2907/22/2020

My hat is off to those moms. They’re wearing bicycle helmets because they expect to get beaten. One is pregnant. They are volunteer soldiers in a war against fascism. Only without the riot gear and battle armor of their adversaries. It’s like horseback Polish soldiers against Nazi tanks.

If people had shown such initiative in 2016, we wouldn’t be here.

by Anonymousreply 3007/22/2020

One of the mom's said it was hellish. I can’t believe this is America.

by Anonymousreply 3107/22/2020

You have to all register to vote, and then VOTE.

With voter suppression, it will be difficult in many states.

Vote ALL republicans OUT of OFFICE!!

by Anonymousreply 3207/22/2020

R32 Amen

by Anonymousreply 3307/22/2020

Something you can do right now is CALL YOUR RETHUG SENATORS!

Demand to know why they continue to enable this attack on unarmed civilians by fucking mercenaries but refuse to address the bounties on the heads of our soldiers!

They are the ones who are enabling this bullshit. They are the ones who refused to hold that cunt accountable and remove him from office.

THEY ARE COMPLICIT!

by Anonymousreply 3407/22/2020

Nobody who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 will vote for him in 2020. His negatives are HARD. Most polls show that 50% will never even consider voting for him. Full stop.

Don't pay attention to Rasmussen. They have him at 48% approval today, 7-12% higher than everybody else. And they always do.

by Anonymousreply 3507/22/2020

Quinnipiac has Biden +13 in Florida. St Pete Polls has him at +7. Looks like Florida is going blue.

by Anonymousreply 3607/23/2020

Flashback To Quinnipiac Florida Poll July 2016:

Trump 42% (+3)

Clinton 39%

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by Anonymousreply 3707/23/2020

The full Biden-Obama “Socially Distanced Conversation”:

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by Anonymousreply 3807/23/2020

Who's behind Trump's big polling deficit? Two key groups defecting to Biden

Seniors and college-educated whites are fueling a surge in Joe Biden's numbers.

July 22, 2020

By David Wasserman

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by Anonymousreply 3907/23/2020

Quinniapiac- Florida

Biden-51%

Trump- 38%

by Anonymousreply 4007/23/2020

[quote]Trump hasn't even BEGUN to unleash his wrath against Biden.

He has spent over $600 million and he's launched the "Death Star." Not only has he definitely BEGUN, he's been trying to make things stick for literally months. Nothing has worked.

[quote]And there's actually some critical ammo that will stick in people's minds. Like Hunter. Like "socialism".

Not a chance. There may be some things that will stick but it won't be those. Biden is too well known for people to believe that shit.

Biden doesn't need to "fight back hard" while Trump is busy destroying himself. He just needs to keep doing what he's doing.

by Anonymousreply 4107/23/2020

Biden is way too well known to try to change minds. Old tricks won’t work. He needs to try to move people TO him but he can’t. So he’s flailing.

by Anonymousreply 4207/23/2020

R11, Trump has been “unleashing his wrath” against Biden for years at this point. It’s why he got impeached. Hunter, “socialism,” and “anarchy in the streets” are cards he has already played.

by Anonymousreply 4307/23/2020

[quote] So he’s flailing.

Yes, flailing with a 10-point lead. 🙄

by Anonymousreply 4407/23/2020

R44 I was talking about the other candidate

by Anonymousreply 4507/23/2020

Then your post at r42 was ridiculously obscure r45.

by Anonymousreply 4607/23/2020

R46 it is. Apologies.

by Anonymousreply 4707/23/2020

WHERE'S HUNTER?????

by Anonymousreply 4807/23/2020

I don't think there Biden will actually win Florida by 13 points, but its great to see. You know it is enraging Trump.

by Anonymousreply 4907/23/2020

Trump screaming about a rigged election is like the pre-season advertising for his new show on Fox.

The Republicans who survive this year's massacre will only be too glad to see him fade into the sunset.

by Anonymousreply 5007/23/2020

Which is another plus, R49, since Trump doesn't handle such things well at all. He's already fired pollsters for giving him bad news and he has an even greater tendency to whine and lash out when he's getting beaten.

There is a very real possibility of a cycle here, with Trump getting bad news leading to Trump getting even more wilder and out of control, leading to Trump getting more bad news. Repeat until November.

by Anonymousreply 5107/23/2020

Is it absolutely necessary for any of them to survive r50?

by Anonymousreply 5207/23/2020

[quote]he has an even greater tendency to whine and lash out when he's getting beaten.

Pics please.

by Anonymousreply 5307/23/2020

it's almost like everyone hates the worst president in American history.

by Anonymousreply 5407/23/2020

I was wrong when I said that the Trump campaign had spent over $600 million. It's both less and more. It's less because if you look only at the campaign, it's about $240 million. It's more because if you look at the campaign combined with the Republican Party and two affiliated committees, it's over $983 million.

Some of that money was spent before 2020 but, even so, it's simply false to say that Trump hasn't begun. Right now, Trump has a bit more money in the bank than Biden but it's not all that big a difference ($296 million to $239 million).

And Biden won't need that much, since he's got Trump (effectively) working for him.

by Anonymousreply 5507/23/2020

Some of them (Cruz) are not up for re-election this year R52

by Anonymousreply 5607/23/2020

Look

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by Anonymousreply 5707/23/2020

Prez doesn’t understand this isn’t 2016. His bag of tricks won’t work. Bragging about an economy he nuked isn’t going to help. The only movable voters are his and he can’t lose any being behind and Biden over 50% in many states. We know Uncle Joe, warts and all, and like him. A last minute scandal won’t work, either.

by Anonymousreply 5807/23/2020

Dump will win again if people believe these stupid polls and stay home. Rinse. Repeat.

by Anonymousreply 5907/23/2020

You're underestimating the desire of people to "walk over broken glass" to vote against Trump, r59. Not to mention against Republicans in the down-level races.

by Anonymousreply 6007/23/2020

[QUOTE] Dump will win again if people believe these stupid polls and stay home. Rinse. Repeat.

Nobody’s staying home. Even people in safe blue states like California and New York can’t wait to go out and vote against Donald Trump. It will be a cathartic experience after four years of misery and what might be 200,000 dead Americans from his ineptitude.

by Anonymousreply 6107/23/2020

Reason for the softening of Biden's numbers and strengthening Trump's numbers:

Some hardcore members of our electorate like what they are seeing in Portland. It makes Trump look like he's in charge. It appears that Trump's team pivoted about two weeks ago by

- Getting control of COVID - this will show up soon. - Having federal agents beat and arrest Portland protestors - Having COVID briefings again; looks like he's addressing the issue - Running hard negative ads against Biden

Cannot stress enough the importance of Portland protests playing into a narrative Trump's campaign is building.

BEST ADVICE: All Portland protests should end at nightfall.

Also, automated polls are very iffy - they show the willingness of his base to respond to polls, without an interviewer influencing the outcome; OTOH - they are easily hacked and/or trolled.

by Anonymousreply 6207/23/2020

Well, see, here's the thing, R62: there isn't really any such "softening" or "strengthening." And the rest of your post was so hilariously wrong, not to mention more than a little stupid, it doesn't warrant further comment.

by Anonymousreply 6307/23/2020

I did love the comment about "getting control of COVID," though, since the outbreak is so very much not under control. Nor has the Trump administration done jack shit to bring it under control, including fighting with Senate Republicans to try to *block* funds for testing.

As for the "briefings," you do understand that Trump's numbers went *down* during his prior briefings, right?

by Anonymousreply 6407/23/2020

He could get control of it now and it wouldn’t change how incompetent and dangerous he is. Nobody will trust him to handle things in the future. And I can’t say this enough- nobody wants 4 more years of this mess!

by Anonymousreply 6507/23/2020

In the "regretful Trump-voting teacher is sorry now" thread, someone posted, "Well, nobody *I* know is voting for Trump," and my blood ran cold. That's exactly what we all thought in 2016. It can easily happen again. It's not like Trump has no path to victory. Stop counting your chickens before they're hatched.

by Anonymousreply 6607/23/2020

R66 we aren’t!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! None of us. And I heard plenty say they were or say they weren’t sure. Not this time! I hear nobody unsure.

by Anonymousreply 6707/23/2020

Ohpleaseohpleaseohplease

by Anonymousreply 6807/23/2020

Michael Moore is on MSNBC warning Democrats to not get smug and overconfident: Trump can come back and win.

by Anonymousreply 6907/23/2020

Why are H-Stans so convinced that people will assume that victory is at hand and stay home, versus learning from 2016 and crawling over broken glass to vote him out.

Do you all not think that no one in the DNC or any of the PACs has thought of this too and that they will not be blitzing the interwebs and TV for the month prior to the election reminding people not to let lightening strike twice?

And Michael Moore is a fat troll who looks like a badly aging lesbian with a flair for the obvious R69

by Anonymousreply 7007/23/2020

Do you think Michael Moore takes a bath more than once a month?

by Anonymousreply 7107/23/2020

And when he is in said monthly bath, do you think he is able to get beneath all those rolls of fat to adequately clean himself?

by Anonymousreply 7207/23/2020

People stayed home in 2016 because they didn't like Hillary or Trump. Not because they were "overconfident."

by Anonymousreply 7307/23/2020

My parents are what I'd call fairly loyal Republicans, who only strayed from the party once when they voted for Clinton in 92. They both now say that, unless something drastic happens, they're most likely voting for Biden. My mom said it best when she told me Trump has become exhausting.

by Anonymousreply 7407/23/2020

Shhh R73 -- we're not supposed to mention that no one liked her.

But allow me H-Stans......

[quote] IF no one liked her why did she win by 3 million votes!

[quote] If no one liked her why was she named "Most Admired Woman In The World" every year since 1970?

[quote] If no one liked her, it was because YOU believe 30 years of right wing propaganda that no one likes her. People actually LOVE her

[quote] If no one liked her why did she win two Senate elections in New York

[quote] If no one liked her why did one million women put on silly pink hats and march on Washington with their old sorority sisters and Junior League chapters?

[quote] If no one liked her why did she have such great poll numbers until Comey butted in?

[quote] If no one liked her why was she the most qualified person to run for office in the history of elections?

[quote] If no one liked her why did Bill stick with her?

[quote] If no one liked her why are you trying to erase me???? I am someone and I like her

by Anonymousreply 7507/23/2020

Hillary isn’t running for President as far as I know. . . .

by Anonymousreply 7607/23/2020

Michael Moore is a Bernie bro pig. He’d love it if Trump won. I stopped listening to that beluga whale YEARS ago.

by Anonymousreply 7707/23/2020

Start a thread insinuating she is R76 and I bet you'll get a few hundred responses.

by Anonymousreply 7807/23/2020

Well which is he R77-- a pig or a beluga whale?

We can't have people mixing animal metaphors on here!

by Anonymousreply 7907/23/2020

R73, and do they *like* Biden now, or do they just dislike Trump? Because the latter is not a positive impetus for many people to go to the trouble of casting a vote.

by Anonymousreply 8007/23/2020

People like Biden. Yes. He’s comforting.

by Anonymousreply 8107/23/2020

[quote][R73], and do they *like* Biden now, or do they just dislike Trump?

They like Biden, and they HATE Trump.

by Anonymousreply 8207/23/2020

Many people like Biden R80

They find him reassuring and empathetic and know that he will not have an ego and will appoint the best people.

Judging anyone against Trump's basket of fanatics is the wrong path to take.

by Anonymousreply 8307/23/2020

R80, people don’t “dislike” Trump. It’s way beyond that. They hate him. It’s deep and personal.

by Anonymousreply 8407/23/2020

[quote] Dump will win again if people believe these stupid polls and stay home.

Just stop. That does not happen. People don’t stay home en masse because the polls look good.

by Anonymousreply 8507/23/2020

When we start seeing republicans distancing themselves from him, this will start to feel more real.

by Anonymousreply 8607/23/2020

Very comforting.

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by Anonymousreply 8707/23/2020

[quote] and do they *like* Biden now, or do they just dislike Trump? Because the latter is not a positive impetus for many people to go to the trouble of casting a vote.

Ask any political expert and they will tell you that FEAR and ANGER are the two biggest motivators to get people to vote. Democratic voters are feeling more fearful and angry than at any other time in history. We will turn out in record numbers.

This election is 100% about Trump. When people go into the voting booth on election day, they will either be voting for or against Trump. All Biden has to do between now and November is to remain likable.

by Anonymousreply 8807/23/2020

My breathing slows and I’m calm watching the video at R87.

by Anonymousreply 8907/23/2020

R88, you are right on. I do believe a percentage of Hillary voters (no way to tell how many) didn’t vote because they thought Hillary had it in the bag. They will NOT make that mistake again. It really helps that Biden is likable. He’ll make missteps, but he’ll recognize them and apologize for them. I really think the anger is fueled by Dump’s inability to be humble sometimes and to be empathetic and listen.

by Anonymousreply 9007/23/2020

[quote] The source told the Globe that Coelho told another person that “Biden’s folks told Bass it’s her or Duckworth.”

[quote] Before being elected to Congress, Bass served in the California State Assembly for six years, including the final two as Speaker. Those who put stock in election voodoo point to a further sign of Bass’ possible selection. From January through May of this year, her Wikipedia page was edited a total of 26 times. In June, it was 35, and so far in July, there have been 24 adjustments.

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by Anonymousreply 9107/23/2020

Dear god I hope it’s Duckworth.

by Anonymousreply 9207/23/2020

[quote]The source told the Globe that Coelho told another person that “Biden’s folks told Bass it’s her or Duckworth.”

Rumors coming from “the Globe” and “the source” and “another person” and “Biden’s folks” sound super reliable.

by Anonymousreply 9307/23/2020

Awesome.

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by Anonymousreply 9407/23/2020

[quote]I really think the anger is fueled by Dump’s inability to be humble sometimes

Sometimes??

by Anonymousreply 9507/23/2020

R95, he’s never humble, for sure, but I’m saying he doesn’t need to be humble all the time... just a few times would go a long way.

by Anonymousreply 9607/23/2020

R96 not at this point

by Anonymousreply 9707/23/2020

For those of you who love Duckworth, can you help me understand what her good points are. I have to admit that I am not all that familiar with her, but some of you seem really passionate about her and I'd like more information that isn't something scripted or PR from a website. Thanks.

by Anonymousreply 9807/23/2020

If a politician or a person has spent years acting one way and for a few weeks or months they change their behavior and people fall for good God we’re fucked.

by Anonymousreply 9907/23/2020

R98, would an opinion piece by Frank Bruni in the Times be acceptable? It’s not PR.

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by Anonymousreply 10007/23/2020

R98, here’s an overview from the Times.

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by Anonymousreply 10107/23/2020

Uncle Joe is doing great. There’s going to be a silent Biden voter surge.

by Anonymousreply 10207/23/2020

Thanks for posting those links R100 and R101. I appreciate it.

by Anonymousreply 10307/23/2020

[quote]Because the latter is not a positive impetus for many people to go to the trouble of casting a vote.

Oh, you have no idea just how much of an impetus it is to vote. We saw that in 2017, 2018, 2019, and even earlier this year. Democrats are motivated in a way that we haven't seen in years.

by Anonymousreply 10407/23/2020

Here are her own words. May count as PR, but it’s an example of what she’s willing to put out in the world.

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by Anonymousreply 10507/23/2020

Veterans vote for veterans. Florida has many veterans.

by Anonymousreply 10607/23/2020

New Fox polls:

MICHIGAN

Biden: 49%

Trump: 40%

MINNESOTA

Biden: 51%

Trump: 38%

PENNSYLVANIA

Biden: 50%

Trump: 39

by Anonymousreply 10707/23/2020

The racists on DL appear to be okay with Duckworth but of course are adamantly against any of the Black candidates that have been suggested. Do they consider her a honorary white?

by Anonymousreply 10807/23/2020

R108, not sure what you’re getting at. In my experience, the racists on this board are for Dump.

by Anonymousreply 10907/23/2020

R108, the racists on DL are mocking Duckworth mercilessly. They want Warren.

by Anonymousreply 11007/23/2020

R98, a more in-depth and critical analysis.

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by Anonymousreply 11107/23/2020

Have there been any Black candidates for VP suggested on DL that haven't been shot down immediately?

by Anonymousreply 11207/23/2020

[quote][bold]This election is 100% about Trump[/bold]. When people go into the voting booth on election day, they will either be voting for or against Trump. All Biden has to do between now and November is to remain likable.

Agreed, particularly that first sentence. And Trump remains Trump. In fact, he's doubling down on everything that makes him Trump: the grievances, the whining, the fixation on things like that mental impairment test (the fixation on which basically demonstrates that he is, in fact, mentally impaired), the racism, the dog whistles, the visible physical deterioration, the refusal to listen to anyone, and so on.

Insert usual disclaimer: a lot can happen between now and then, the race isn't over, it's likely to tighten, yada, yada, yada. All that said, I'd much rather be in Biden's position than Trump's.

by Anonymousreply 11307/23/2020

R112, have there been any VP candidates - whatever they are - that haven’t been shot down immediately?

by Anonymousreply 11407/23/2020

On DL, R114? Nope. Nor any Presidential candidates. We shoot everyone down, indiscriminately.

by Anonymousreply 11507/23/2020

R112, not being 100% in favor of one of the Black VP candidates isn’t the same as hating them, etc. There are concerns about each of them, as with Duckworth.

Look, Demings was a police chief. Harris was CA Attorney General (California’s “top cop”). Lance Bottoms became mayor in 2017.

Duckworth was born in Thailand. That could be a problem.

None of them are perfect.

by Anonymousreply 11607/23/2020

And if they are perfect to someone, R116, it's pretty much guaranteed that they will be equally unacceptable to someone else.

The election will be a referendum on Trump, not on Biden's VP.

by Anonymousreply 11707/23/2020

Paging the Miss Kamala Devi Harris Is Our Diva Trolls for you R112

by Anonymousreply 11807/23/2020

Duckworth’s lineage goes back to the American Revolution and she is a Daughter of the American Revolution. Her family has served in the U.S. military for centuries. Unlike Trump’s family, who have draft dodged for generations, since the moment they came to our shores.

Duckworth is the anti-Trump. She is a combat vet, has a Purple Heart she earned, and medals. And she calls him out on his bullshit every time.

by Anonymousreply 11907/23/2020

And think of how happy the Sum Ting Wong troll would be R119

Because every time he tells that joke, it's as funny as it was the first time back in fifth grade!!!

by Anonymousreply 12007/23/2020

[quote] If Biden, 77, picked Bass — or Warren, 71 — they’d be the oldest ticket in history.

Bass is 66. But 60 is the new 40, arguably.

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by Anonymousreply 12107/23/2020

They clearly fear Duckworth.

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by Anonymousreply 12207/23/2020

Susan Rice.

by Anonymousreply 12307/23/2020

Thank God, Obama is back and is driving this campaign. Obviously, he is basing the VP pick on data, being evidence-based about this.

We have to WIN.

ALL of you Americans. REGISTER TO VOTE this week. Plan how you are going to deal with voter suppression that may occur in your state NOW.

ALL HANDS ON DECK!

WE NEED EVERY VOTER!

by Anonymousreply 12407/23/2020

The Duckworth-cheer-leading troll is getting insufferable on multiple, multiple threads already. Seriously. We get it; you worship her and/or are on her payroll. Now all of us just need to VOTE D down the ballot for every election going forward and we are good. This constant demonizing of other respectable D Senators, politicians, etc. is really stupid and exactly the sort of internal dissension that Democrats don't need right now. Enough of the stanning and more of the uniting.

by Anonymousreply 12507/23/2020

R86 You have a point. The polls are real, it looks like Biden is significantly ahead. But there would be pleasurable assurance of possible and then even likely victory if the rats start jumping ship. The Collins-Maine thing doesn't count. Kasich doesn't count. Sasse wouldn't count. I want to see Ernst, Gardner. Or even better Cornyn and Inhoff. Or Sec of State Esper!! Ah the sweet possibilities.

by Anonymousreply 12607/23/2020

Harry Enten:

This election is... not close currently.

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by Anonymousreply 12707/23/2020

The way things work, I think it’ll be very close on election night. The media are going to pull something to both-sides Biden and to try drag him down.

by Anonymousreply 12807/23/2020

The far left will spend the campaign attacking Biden. Trump won't have to do a thing.

by Anonymousreply 12907/23/2020

Yes, but he's still 78 ..............

His VP choice needs strong shoulders and longevity to carry Old Joe.

by Anonymousreply 13007/23/2020

[quote]The far left will spend the campaign attacking Biden. Trump won't have to do a thing.

The moderate right will spend the campaign attacking Trump. Biden won't have to do a thing.

What I typed is actually happening.

What you typed, r129, is a fantasy the Trumpstapo has been flogging for over a year, with no discernible effect.

by Anonymousreply 13107/24/2020

The other people flogging that R131 are our Datalounge H-Stans who still blame Bernie and his mythical "BernieBros" for her loss. (Mythical as they seem to only exist on Twitter, they were certainly nowhere to be found at the polls this year.)

by Anonymousreply 13207/24/2020

The socialism bit hasn't been sticking yet, R11, and they've tried it a few times.

It's going to be an uphill battle to make socialism stick on Biden when everyone knows he beat out the real socialist, Bernie Sanders. The Trumpsters think he's a socialist because that's how Trumpster brains work, but the moderates, indies, etc. know he's not.

Trump's tactic seems to be frightening people and causing chaos. That's what we need to be paying the most attention to.

by Anonymousreply 13307/24/2020

Wake up! Republicans are beating our asses with new voter registration!

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by Anonymousreply 13407/24/2020

The story

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by Anonymousreply 13507/24/2020

From R135’s article...

“ Because overall registration numbers have been so low across the board during the pandemic, Republican gains during that period have been too small in most cases to make up for months of pre-pandemic Democratic advances. Tom Bonier, TargetSmart's CEO, compared the registration shift to a footrace that was suddenly forced into slow motion. During that time, Republicans, though still behind, “got a couple of extra steps” closer to Democrats.

“It’s not like they’ve built the lead,” Bonier said. “It’s really something where neither side should be celebrating or panicking about.”

Looking at newer data this week, Bonier found Democrats increased their share of registrations in June over the previous month in several states that have reported registrations for that month. He also noticed an uptick in registrations after the George Floyd demonstrations began. In California, a heavily Democratic state, overall registrations spiked after the first weekend of demonstrations in late May and early June.”

by Anonymousreply 13607/24/2020

Good. Keep registering

by Anonymousreply 13707/24/2020

Also, it's not clear how all these new registering Republicans intend to vote. They could be the silent never-Trumpers.

by Anonymousreply 13807/24/2020

Probably not. Never Trumpers have left the Party

by Anonymousreply 13907/24/2020

New Lincoln Project ad:

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by Anonymousreply 14007/24/2020

3/

At this point in 2016, party registration of NC's requested absentee by mail ballots was:

38% registered Democrat 37% reg Republican 25% reg Unaffiliated

Today (7-24):

54% reg Democrat 35% reg Unaffiliated 11% reg Republican

Party registrations & voter race data:

#ncpol

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by Anonymousreply 14107/24/2020

As an addendum, here are the 2016 Party #s vs. 2020 Party #s for NC's requested absentee by mail ballots:

2016 reg Republicans: 6,736 2020 reg Reps: 9,229

2016 reg Democrats: 6,868 2020 reg Dems: 46,856

2016 reg Unaffiliated: 4,546 2020 reg Unaff: 30,912

#ncpol

by Anonymousreply 14207/24/2020

As a PSA: NC absentee by mail ballots can be requested via a form found here:

And once ballots are mailed out (9/4), voters can return their ballot by the mail OR in-person at their county board of elections/early voting sites

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by Anonymousreply 14307/24/2020

7/

Over 50% of the nearly 83K NC ABM requests so far have come from just 5 counties (out of the 81 which have reported among the 100 counties):

Wake: 15,520 (18.75%) Mecklenburg: 15,219 (18.38%) Durham: 5,445 (6.58%) Guilford: 4,934 (5.96%) Orange: 3,980 (4.81%)

#ncpol

by Anonymousreply 14407/24/2020

The Mercers have abandoned Trump. They've seen the numbers and come to the conclusion that he can't win and it would not be prudent to spend any more money on him.

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by Anonymousreply 14507/24/2020

Re the Mercers, the courts never revealed the back of the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, did they?

by Anonymousreply 14607/24/2020

Nice discussion.

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by Anonymousreply 14707/24/2020

Someone needs to make a song out of Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV

And MARY!!!!!!!'s -- this is a prolonged collapse by Trump. Every day for the past month or longer has been nothing but bad news and gaffes.

Tulsa disaster was June 20th.

Shit's not blowing over like it did four years ago.

by Anonymousreply 14807/24/2020

Re: R147

[quote] Confidence Interval: Democrats Could Win 60 Seats In The Senate

Warning: thoughts of a 60-seat filibuster-proof Democratic Senate have been known to cause severed priapism. If you have an election boner lasting more than four hours ... enjoy.

by Anonymousreply 14907/24/2020

Even a near Democratic Supermajority from 2009-2011 was constrained by the fact that much of that delegation came from moderate or conservative districts that would punish Democrats who went too progressive. Still, in 2010, Democrats in those swing districts lost big

by Anonymousreply 15007/24/2020

Cheeto will try to steal the election by suppressing mail-in votes.

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by Anonymousreply 15107/24/2020

3: Duckworth

2: Warren

1: Harris

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by Anonymousreply 15207/24/2020

The best way to keep the various polls in perspective is to watch the "270toWin" website. No matter the poll, Trump can never manage over 45 percent support (and it is usually much lower). And anyone who thinks Trump is going to miraculously start acting "presidential" forgets that he is grappling with dementia. His behavior is only going to get worse and will not swing any more votes his way. The ONLY way Trump is winning is by cheating and voter suppression. Which means, he still has a chance.

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by Anonymousreply 15307/24/2020

Fun.

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by Anonymousreply 15407/24/2020

Nate Cohn, published 16 minutes ago

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by Anonymousreply 15507/24/2020

R153, I don’t get why some want assurance Trump can’t win. It’s much more motivating to think he can win or that polls in July aren’t necessarily predictive of November results.

by Anonymousreply 15607/24/2020

A Marshall Plan for coal country. Before you criticize, please read the article. It's part of a bigger picture.

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by Anonymousreply 15707/24/2020

One to keep in mind: Duckworth lacks an elite educational pedigree. She didn't attend an Ivy or Stanford. The most prestigious school she attended was George Washington University, in DC, where she earned a masters in international affairs.

Rice is a Rhodes scholar and earned her BA at Stanford.

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by Anonymousreply 15807/24/2020

R158, that’s good reason to support Duckworth. The electorate despises elitism, especially in swing states

by Anonymousreply 15907/24/2020

[quote]I don’t get why some want assurance Trump can’t win.

For a variety of reasons, I suspect, including that they want to believe their country and their peers are better than Trump; they want to make damn sure that the defeat is so large that it cannot be doubted or challenged; they want the defeat to be as large and as humiliating as possible; they want to know in these uncertain times that better things are coming.

Take your pick.

by Anonymousreply 16007/24/2020

R156, because some of us need a respite from the anxiety that Cheeto will win.

by Anonymousreply 16107/24/2020

Yeah, but respites lead to his re-election. We need to be peddle to the metal until November 4

by Anonymousreply 16207/24/2020

Time to donate again

by Anonymousreply 16307/24/2020

R162, I think it's just a very brief "ahhh" relaxing moment to hear "Biden's absolutely totally going to win" - I don't think any rational person who cares about the outcome will actually believe it. They just want to hear it, for comfort.

by Anonymousreply 16407/24/2020

R160 said it best. But I have to tell you it would be nice to be able to believe in the decency of my fellow Americans again. I can forgive an error in judgment 4 years ago, but if they send him back a second time after all this. Then fuck 'em all.

by Anonymousreply 16507/24/2020

Error in judgment? The man was openly bigoted in 2016 and before, and people were warned he would be horrid.

by Anonymousreply 16607/24/2020

I was trying to be nice R166.

by Anonymousreply 16707/24/2020

"Who do you trust more to handle (X)?"

Public Health Response To Covid19: Biden: 51% Trump: 33%

Economic Recovery After Covid19: Biden: 46% Trump: 41%

Echelon Insights / July 22, 2020 / n=1000 / Online

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by Anonymousreply 16807/24/2020

Presidential Polling (Head-To-Head):

Biden (D): 53% (+3) Trump (R): 38% (-4)

Echelon Insights / July 22, 2020 / n=1000 / Online

(% chg w June 16)

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by Anonymousreply 16907/24/2020

That poll service gets a D+ from 538 R169

It's a Google poll service

by Anonymousreply 17007/24/2020

We all have PTSD from 2016.

Ignore everything and vote anyway.

Find out if and when your state has early voting, absentee voting or vote by mail. Get your ballot and send it in as soon as it's available.

Tell your neighbors when they can can early vote or vote by mail.

IGNORE. THE. NOISE.

VOTE. ANYWAY.

by Anonymousreply 17107/24/2020

[quote]One to keep in mind: Duckworth lacks an elite educational pedigree. She didn't attend an Ivy or Stanford.

This also applies to Harris. She went to Howard, and UC Hastings.

And besides, an Ivy League education is a turnoff to many middle class folks.

by Anonymousreply 17207/24/2020

It's going to be one of the three Senators: Duckworth, Warren, or Harris. I really can't see why anyone thinks it might be that Karne Bass woman.

by Anonymousreply 17307/24/2020

[quote]Someone needs to make a song out of Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV

I like this remix:

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by Anonymousreply 17407/24/2020

Gravis Marketing

MICHIGAN (Biden +9)

WISCONSIN (Biden +8)

Gravis usually leans Republican, so these are good numbers for Biden.

by Anonymousreply 17507/24/2020

r106, Republican veterans are not going to vote for a Biden and Duckworth ticket.

They are more likely to think that Duckworth is some kind of Chinese spy and don't think for a minute that Trump won't go low enough to insinuate something ridiculous like that.

Duckworth is not a good choice.

by Anonymousreply 17607/24/2020

r121, Karen Bass may have a lesbian problem.

by Anonymousreply 17707/24/2020

If the goal is to win Republican assholes, nobody is a good choice.

by Anonymousreply 17807/24/2020

Yeah, fuck those uneducated old white men. They can all FOAD.

they'll never vote for a Dem because "guns! Babies! Jeebis!"

by Anonymousreply 17907/24/2020

The goal is to win independents, r178. 96% of Republicans support Trump.

by Anonymousreply 18007/24/2020

Well, yes, but I actually think that is Biden's job, r180, and I think he'll be pretty good at it. He is going to have to pick a runningmate who will excite the base, though, in addition.

by Anonymousreply 18107/24/2020

Biden is awesome, r181. I've been a Biden supporter on DL for years and mocked for it, and yet here we are.

by Anonymousreply 18207/24/2020

That's fine. I preferred other candidates, but you are right. Here we are, and I'm fine with it. And he definitely will win Republican moderates where my preferred candidates would struggle, to put it mildly.

by Anonymousreply 18307/24/2020

Of all new registrations in Pennsylvania from the latest recorded week, Democrats gained +4,603 registered voters and Republicans gained +4,144.

Democrats: 41.9% (+4.1) Republicans: 37.8% Other: 20.3%

(July 13th to 20th)

by Anonymousreply 18407/24/2020

It's the "other" you need to worry about in PA.

by Anonymousreply 18507/24/2020

[quote]I don’t get why some want assurance Trump can’t win. It’s much more motivating to think he can win or that polls in July aren’t necessarily predictive of November results.

That's a good point. You have to wonder who keeps pushing the narrative that the vote will be so overwhelming that it's a done deal. Those in favor of a candidate would be expected to keep stressing that it could go either way to motivate people to vote.

by Anonymousreply 18607/24/2020

R186 It’s called enjoying the moment. Nobody in this country takes this election for granted. Also, a huge win puts red states in play and energizes Dems and Indies to vote if it’s close. Win-win

by Anonymousreply 18707/24/2020

Many of the homosexuals who post on DL are big time fretters.

by Anonymousreply 18807/24/2020

[quote]Yeah, but respites lead to his re-election.

It's not healthy to be hyperfocused on the news or politics. People need breaks. It's borderline psychotic to tell someone that if they take a brief mental health break from thinking about politics, Trump will win and the country will be destroyed.

[quote]peddle to the metal

Wrong in both grammar and substance.

by Anonymousreply 18907/24/2020

I can't say I've run into any narrative claiming Biden has it in the bag.

What I see are people saying, "These polls look good, Biden may win!' and then they get 40,000 people screaming at them for not being worried enough.

by Anonymousreply 19007/24/2020

Yes, Biden up in every swing state and places like TX and AK yet OMG HE’S GOING TO LOSE.

I’m going to enjoy this before polls tighten.

by Anonymousreply 19107/24/2020

R188, that’s how we survive. We worry about angles we have yet to uncover.

by Anonymousreply 19207/24/2020

The Germans see what’s happening.

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by Anonymousreply 19307/24/2020

[quote]Wrong in both grammar and substance.

So few people seem to know the difference between "grammar" and "spelling" these days.

by Anonymousreply 19407/24/2020

Polls don't matter

by Anonymousreply 19507/24/2020

I've not heard a single person say or suggest "Biden has it in the bad so I'm not going to bother voting." So I'm really not interested in the concern trolling.

by Anonymousreply 19607/24/2020

R194 wins

by Anonymousreply 19707/25/2020

Oh please [R176] - do you Really think we should pick a VP to accommodate anyone who could actually believe (or want to believe) Duckworth is a Chinese spy?? Do you Really think we could luck out and pick someone who would make this kind of person say "Oh, well, okay, I can vote Democratic if that person is the VP candidate?? Yikes..

by Anonymousreply 19807/25/2020

[quote] I've not heard a single person say or suggest "Biden has it in the bad so I'm not going to bother voting."

Because it doesn’t happen. Maybe our concerned friend is energized by being in a constant state of despair, but for most people, it’s tiring and demoralizing. He apparently isn’t considering that seeing Biden do well in the polls is energizing for us, and probably for most people.

by Anonymousreply 19907/25/2020

1/

Thread of today's (7-25) report on NC's requests for absentee by mail (ABM) ballots.

Total requests among the reporting 90 (out of 100) counties: 91,561

Up 4,268 over yesterday.

This same day in 2016: 18,214

2020 is now 5X ahead of 2016's #s for same day

#ncpol #ncvotes

by Anonymousreply 20007/25/2020

4/

Data allows for breakdowns by several categories, including voter race:

Whites: 75% Black/African American: 13% All other races/undesignated: 12%

Not surprising that whites are significant #s/%s, since NC voting by mail tends to be more white.

Party registration and race

by Anonymousreply 20107/25/2020

3/

Party registrations for same day ABM request totals in 2016 vs. 2020.

In 2016: registered Democrats: 6,875 (38%) reg Unaffiliated: 4,546 (25%) reg Republicans: 6,737 (37%)

now: reg Dems: 48,927 (53%) reg Unaff: 32,414 (35%) reg Rep: 9,912 (11%)

#ncpol

by Anonymousreply 20207/25/2020

Dukakis was 17 points ahead of Bush #41 after the DNC in 1988.

by Anonymousreply 20307/25/2020

We’ve already discussed 1988 polls r203. Keep up, dude

by Anonymousreply 20407/25/2020

Why the Dukakis 1988 analogy is baloney

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by Anonymousreply 20507/25/2020

This is the main way they’ll try to steal the election. State after state. 26 states have GOP governors.

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by Anonymousreply 20607/25/2020

I so want his approval rating to fall further.

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by Anonymousreply 20707/25/2020

Early voting begins in five weeks. More people are voting early more than ever this year

by Anonymousreply 20807/25/2020

Why do so many DLers seem so invested in convincing us that somehow Trump will find a way to win, either via voter apathy, voter fraud or an act of God.

Are they trolls?

Hillary Stans who want Biden to suffer the same fate as their Great and Glorious Queen?

Debbie Downers who constantly see the down side of everything?

Flyoverstanis who live in deep inside the Basket of Deplorables and can't imagine that the polls could be real?

All of the above?

by Anonymousreply 20907/25/2020

I think the earliest voting begins 45 days before the election and we're 100 days out tomorrow.

by Anonymousreply 21007/25/2020

No, Democrats are trying to protect themselves from Election Night heartache. One way not to be devastated in November is not to expect victory. Also, many think saying or thinking Trump will lose jinxes the outcome, and even makes people vote for him out of spite or contrarian spirit.

by Anonymousreply 21107/25/2020

Wrong r210

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by Anonymousreply 21207/25/2020

So as per R211, they are (C) Debbie Downers who constantly see the down side of everything

by Anonymousreply 21307/25/2020

Maybe it’s wise

by Anonymousreply 21407/25/2020

[quote]Debbie Downers who constantly see the down side of everything?

This. Many gays suffer from severe anxiety and a dependence on benzodiazepines.

by Anonymousreply 21507/25/2020

I guess I'm a debbie downer. I like the way these polls look and I'm excited. But I've worked in politics, it's July. Things are probably going to tighten up. Plus, I've been on DL long enough to watch you guys jump to these conclusions over and over again only to watch it all fall apart months and/or weeks later. And that's when you guys start that annoying ass blame game about why it all fell apart.

If this were September 25 and not July 25, I would be over the moon happy. But we've got a long way to go. Nothing wrong with being cautious. And I can assure that I don't have anxiety or take prescription psyche meds.

by Anonymousreply 21607/25/2020

Precisely. All the experts and pundits on MSNBC today are saying although polls look good now,we must keep in mind 100 days is as very long time, and there will be big twists, turns, and surprises that may shake the Race by November.

by Anonymousreply 21707/25/2020

We should acknowledge polls look good in July. But absolutely no one should be saying with assurance Trump will lose.

by Anonymousreply 21807/25/2020

Even if it were Columbus Day with these polls, we would still have to be humble about the real Possibility Trump could still win.

by Anonymousreply 21907/25/2020

R219 Native Peoples' Day

by Anonymousreply 22007/25/2020

I suspect a lot is also due to DLers being overconfident about H's victory in 2016

by Anonymousreply 22107/25/2020

Without a robust economy Trump is screwed because that was always his supporters best argument to defend him. The only thing Trump has left is fear and intimidation.

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by Anonymousreply 22207/25/2020

Best case scenario would be an 1860 outcome where Biden clearly wins, but Trump supporters are so outraged that they start demanding secession, and we let them go this time. The border falls between SC and NC (which went blue), takes in TN but not KY, LA but not TX (which went red but is too close to purple to secede without trouble). It can officially be a devolution into a dual federation, but in short order the CSA is redeclared with a more discreet form of white supremacy and Trump stays president in Mar a Lago. Meanwhile the rest of us breathe a sigh of relief and rebuild the economy and foreign relations without the worry of that drag-ass mosquito republic.

by Anonymousreply 22307/25/2020

R223 The secession would greatly help the deficit and the national debt (great outflow of blue dollars to red states would stop). However, I think a portion of the national debt should be offloaded to The New Confederacy (Bugaboolandia?). The remaining (loyalist to the Constitution) would have fewer single moms, higher levels of literacy, lower rates of abortion (doucmented, look it up), longer life expectancy. I'm for it.

by Anonymousreply 22407/25/2020

Good idea, R224. I'd add that the new Confederacy would be carved out of some of the more meth-dependent areas—they should certainly get Oklahoma and Missouri.

by Anonymousreply 22507/25/2020

But not Cherokee OK, ok?

This idea could have legs...

by Anonymousreply 22607/25/2020

Depends on what the Cherokee want. I recall they were largely CSA during the war, but modern conservatism may be less their cup of tea.

by Anonymousreply 22707/25/2020

Absent from a lot of 2020 election discussions is the fact that are an abnormally high percentage of undecided voters for a race with an incumbent.

Undecided voters are disproportionately in states that Trump won.

by Anonymousreply 22807/25/2020

Undecided voters by competitive state:

Utah 14.4% Indiana 12 New Hampshire 10.2 Wisconsin 9.9 Virginia 9.6 Nevada 9.2 Michigan 9 Mississippi 9 Florida 8.8 Arizona 8.7 Texas 8.6 Ohio 8.4 Georgia 8.3 Iowa 8.3 Arkansas 8 New Mexico 8 Kansas 8 Pennsylvania 7.5 North Carolina 7.3

by Anonymousreply 22907/25/2020

Harry Enten:

We're a little over 100 days from election (100 days and 11 hours)... A lot of unknowns, but to me the biggest figure continues to be that no prez with a net approval anywhere close to Trump's (-15 pts) at this point has ever been re-elected.

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by Anonymousreply 23007/25/2020

It boggles my mind that someone could be undecided at this point.

Trump is so polarizing, how can you have a "well, you know, maybe..." opinion of him?

by Anonymousreply 23107/25/2020

we are bound together. we may not like the South, but we are bound together. it is a thing.

by Anonymousreply 23207/25/2020

[quote]Absent from a lot of 2020 election discussions is the fact that are an abnormally high percentage of undecided voters for a race with an incumbent.

In 2016, if I recall correctly, the voters who made up their mind at the last minute went for Trump. I doubt very much that will happen in 2020.

by Anonymousreply 23307/25/2020

What R228 wrote is not true R233

by Anonymousreply 23407/25/2020

yeah, Trump is a known quantity, and that is is biggest problem this year. There were morons who could imagine a competent and wonderful Trump in 2016. Now, nobody can.

by Anonymousreply 23507/25/2020

See r229, R234, although I don't know where he got those numbers. Bloomberg also had an article, although back in April, which claimed that the number of undecided voters jumped from 5% in early April to between 12% and 16% in late April. I have no idea whether that is still true and I don't believe there was any followup to determine why there was a spike. I doubt it was good news for Trump, though.

A more recent article on this, citing Reuters/Ipsos polling, had this to say:

[quote]Back in 2016, Reuters/Ipsos polling found that, in the months leading up to the general election, President Trump and his Democratic competitor Hillary Clinton garnered an equal amount of support among third party or undecided voters. Eventually, a majority of those voters backed Trump when they went to the booth. But a new Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that he'll have a tough time repeating that against former Vice President Joe Biden in 2020.

[quote]A majority of undecided or third party voters — 61 percent — responded that they would support the presumptive Democratic nominee if they had to choose. And 70 percent of those said they disapprove of Trump's performance in the Oval Office so far, and they don't have much hope that he can turn things around.

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by Anonymousreply 23607/25/2020

But he'll pivot and be more presidential in his second term!

by Anonymousreply 23707/25/2020

I meant that there are not an unusually large number of undecided voters R236

by Anonymousreply 23807/25/2020

I’m excited/curious about the VP pick. The election itself is still too far away.

by Anonymousreply 23907/25/2020

Harry Enten:

We're 100 days and a few hours out from election day... This is an unprecedented election, but Trump's trying to come back from a deficit only one incumbent has (Truman) and with a net approval worse than any incumbent has.

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by Anonymousreply 24007/25/2020

[quote]So few people seem to know the difference between "grammar" and "spelling" these days.

He spelled "peddle" correctly, R194. What he got wrong was the idiom; therefore, it's a grammar issue.

Bitch.

by Anonymousreply 24107/25/2020

[quote] A bipartisan group secretly gathered to game out a contested Trump-Biden election. It wasn’t pretty

[quote] “All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor and former Defense Department official who co-organized the group known as the Transition Integrity Project. She described what they found in bleak terms: “The law is essentially ... it’s almost helpless against a president who’s willing to ignore it.”

[quote] If it sounds paranoid or outlandish — a war room of seasoned politicos and constitutional experts playing a Washington version of Dungeons and Dragons in which the future of the republic hangs in the balance — they get it. But, as they finalize a report on what they learned and begin briefing elected officials and others, they insist their warning is serious: A close election this fall is likely to be contested, and there are few guardrails to stop a constitutional crisis, particularly if Trump flexes the considerable tools at his disposal to give himself an advantage.

[quote] “He doesn’t have to win the election,” said Nils Gilman, a historian who leads research at a think tank called the Berggruen Institute and was an organizer of the exercise. “He just has to create a plausible narrative that he didn’t lose.”

[quote] “We have norms in our transition, rather than laws,” said Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow in the Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program at the Carnegie Foundation, who was not part of the game. “This entire election season is something a democracy expert would worry about.”

[quote] “The more demonstrations there were, the more demands for recounts, the more legal challenges there were, the more funerals for democracy were held, the more Trump came across as the candidate of stability,” said Edward Luce, the US editor of the Financial Times, who played the role of a mainstream media reporter during one of the simulations. “Possession is nine-tenths of the law.”

[quote] “The Constitution really has been a workable document in many respects because we have had people who more or less adhered to a code of conduct,” said retired Army Colonel Larry Wilkerson, a Republican and former chief of staff to Colin Powell who participated in games as an observer. “That seems to no longer to be the case. That changes everything.”

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by Anonymousreply 24207/26/2020

99 days

by Anonymousreply 24307/26/2020

Paul Ryan says Trump is “on track to get crushed” in suburbs and Upper Midwest.

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by Anonymousreply 24407/26/2020

People really need to cool it with all of these doomsday scenarios. Yes, Trump is an idiot. Yes, Trump is a monster and it is probably an insult to mentally challenged people to call Trump mentally challenged... but if he loses, he's going. The motherfucker, Jared, Ivanka and the rest have raped and pillaged this country enough to increase their bank accounts. Would they like 4 more years to make even more cash off the taxpayers? Yes. But now they can shift the gifting to the moronic Trumpublicans who will still pay to see them in some form.

And because the media has no soul, they have already probably started negotiations for book deals and pundit spots on the various cable channels. And as Howard Stern said. Trump doesn't want to be president. He wants to be a celebrity. Presidenting is hard.

by Anonymousreply 24507/26/2020

R243...100 days per Biden Tweet.

by Anonymousreply 24607/26/2020

Agree 100% R245

Trump liked being president when the economy was humming along and no one was threatening the US

He must loathe the job with COVID and protest and all that.

He will make a lot of noise about not going or being cheated out of victory because he knows that will keep his name front and center but he is too much of a wimp to actually try and stage a coup. He'll be much happier on OAN or Sinclair bitching about Biden

by Anonymousreply 24707/26/2020

I'm not seeing a significant change in T-Rump's polling in the last week, since the tear-gassing started in Portland—there's still a 15-16 percentage point spread between his approval and disapproval numbers. Do he and Barr and the others have good reason to think that a tough military crackdown on mostly middle-class white people, now including "walls" of moms, dads, vets, etc. will bring enough undecided back into his fold? I would think it would just consolidate his hardest-core base, which isn't enough.

by Anonymousreply 24807/26/2020

I think people also get that the protests in Portland and Seattle are just a couple hundred wingnuts like Naked Athena, not any sort of mass movement or threat to the nation, which means that Trump's response is totally disproportional.

People remember the Occupy Wall Street protests and how those eventually faded away

After four years, something like two-thirds to three-quarters of the country can see through Trump

by Anonymousreply 24907/26/2020

Don’t underestimate Barr. Martial law is on the horizon. The protesters are playing into Barr’s hands.

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by Anonymousreply 25007/26/2020

Barr's fat ass is going to be disbarred then impeached.

Doesn't matter if the Senate removes or not. The pressure on the do nothing Senate will be, well, tremendous. The ones who continue to enable will be shown the door January 3rd.

Remember, the house and Senate are sworn in two weeks before the president. They can impeach them BOTH again with a larger Senate majority to remove.

You can't tell me that those do nothing rethug senators aren't going to see the writing in their own walls and continue to enable this traitor. They can either vote to remove or get booted themselves.

by Anonymousreply 25107/26/2020

George Carlin

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by Anonymousreply 25207/26/2020

Better link for the George Carlin narrated link at R252.

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by Anonymousreply 25307/26/2020

New state polls today from CNN/SSRS:

ARIZONA (Biden +4)

FLORIDA (Biden +5)

MICHIGAN (Biden +12)

by Anonymousreply 25407/26/2020

To add to Polltroll's post...

Arizona: NBC News/Marist. Biden 50, Trump 45. Biden +5

Ohio: CBS News/YouGov Biden 45, Trump 46 Trump +1

Michigan: CBS News/YouGov Biden 48, Trump 42 Biden +6

General Election: CBS News/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10

by Anonymousreply 25507/26/2020

Let's try this again: To add to Polltroll's post...

Arizona:.........................NBC News/Marist....................Biden 50, Trump 45...........Biden +5

Ohio:..............................CBS News/YouGov....................Biden 45, Trump 46...........Trump +1

Michigan:.....................CBS News/YouGov....................Biden 48, Trump 42...........Biden +6

General Election:.......CBS News/YouGov....................Biden 51, Trump 41...........Biden +10

by Anonymousreply 25607/26/2020

Harry Enten:

Trump is behind in a state no Republican has won the presidency without in 96 years. (We are talking about Florida here, which is as close to must win for Trump as any bellwether state. Biden hasn't trailed in a poll there since winter.)

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by Anonymousreply 25707/26/2020

R252 As George Carlin grew to be more of a no-bullshit observational commentary speaker than a comedian. I was greatly saddened when he died.

by Anonymousreply 25807/26/2020

[quote] Ohio: CBS News/YouGov Biden 45, Trump 46 Trump +1

This painful to see. Hopefully things can turn around here.

by Anonymousreply 25907/26/2020

R256, Ohio should not even be a contest, since Trump won there by eight points last time. Instead, a composite of recent polling shows Biden with a slight lead.

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by Anonymousreply 26007/26/2020

R256, Ohio should not even be a contest, since Trump won there by eight points last time. Instead, a composite of recent polling shows Biden with a slight lead.

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by Anonymousreply 26107/26/2020

[quote] Barr's fat ass is going to be disbarred then impeached.

[quote]Doesn't matter if the Senate removes or not. The pressure on the do nothing Senate will be, well, tremendous. The ones who continue to enable will be shown the door January 3rd.

None of this is gonna happen. Put down the pipe.

by Anonymousreply 26207/26/2020

Or just pass it over here.

by Anonymousreply 26307/26/2020

I think the teargassing is more about causing destruction than it is about gaining votes at this point, and of course testing to see how everyday Americans will tolerate their cities being occupied.

People are saying that this doesn't bode well, but the truth is that in Portland, moms, dads, and grandparents are out in force, working against the occupiers. The GOP is looking closely at what's happening in Portland to see what will happen in other cities. If they're smart, they're realizing that it'll be several orders of magnitude worse if they try that shit in places like Chicago or LA.

I still maintain that the GOP wouldn't be throwing Trump under the bus if they thought he had this in the bag. My guess is Putin's support has dwindled and the internet is no longer as easy to manipulate as it was in 2016. Sure, you've got the Qanoners and the Joe Rogan dipshits but the wholesale hoodwinking of a nation isn't possible anymore, it's just pockets of gullibles nowadays.

by Anonymousreply 26407/26/2020

I want to see Donald Trump teargassed.

by Anonymousreply 26507/26/2020

R265 .... by Melania.

by Anonymousreply 26607/26/2020

Interesting

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by Anonymousreply 26707/26/2020

Remember. Vote.

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by Anonymousreply 26807/26/2020

That's a good article R267, thanks.

I get what people are saying when they say they don't trust polling, but at the same time, they need to accept that the reasons 2016 polling was slightly off was because of election interference, not because the polls were wrong.

The polls had HRC up by 2% to 3% and that's about what she won by. But the polls couldn't predict the FBI interfering with the election or the Russians messing around with voter registrations.

by Anonymousreply 26907/26/2020

Well you can expect election interference again.

by Anonymousreply 27007/26/2020

When I first found DL it was just before the 2016 election and I was shocked at how many DLers were positive that She was going to win and dismissed any vaguely negative comments as the work of Russian trolls.

That explains the almost irrational need to downplay how much further ahead Joe Biden is, how much better liked he is, and, most important of all, how intensely disliked Trump now is.

From the article at R267

[quote] Yes, his favorability ratio was poor in 2016. But what’s remarkable now is the number of Americans who give him a very unfavorable rating — fully half the electorate in a recent Monmouth survey — which suggests he may need to win virtually all persuadable voters to win reelection.

by Anonymousreply 27107/27/2020

I think it's simple, why some are saying things won't work out for Biden: it's like when you really want something, and say "but it's not going to happen", thinking that it'll make it more likely to happen because your luck's been lousy. Given that your luck's been lousy, you want to say the opposite, so that your lousy luck makes the opposite of what you're saying happen.

Luck's not real, but I think that's the (irrational) reasoning behind why people are saying "Trump will probably win."

by Anonymousreply 27207/27/2020

R212, it's about 8 weeks out as of today. You justification was a DL post where the op was as bad at counting as you are. 46 days from election day brings you to mid-september. We have 5 weeks to go until the end of august.

by Anonymousreply 27307/27/2020

R272, is correct. Democrats are not gonna be fooled twice, nor are we jinxing it with foolish overconfidence.

by Anonymousreply 27407/27/2020

R212...99-46 = 53. 53÷ 7= 7.5.

by Anonymousreply 27507/27/2020

Biden up 51% to 44% in North Carolina.

Cunningham (D) ahead in the Senate race as well.

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by Anonymousreply 27607/27/2020

NC is one place where polls truly tend to look much better for Democrats than Election Day. Republican turnout there has been supercharged since 2010. Roy Cooper barely Won against The horrific McCory.

by Anonymousreply 27707/27/2020

I don't understand how people neglect to vote. Register, vote by mail if possible. California makes it so easy, and you can even track your ballot as it comes to you in the mail (e.g., "it's been mailed," "it's coming today," "it's been delivered") and after you send it, all the way to its being counted. They text you and/or email you updates re the status of your ballot.

by Anonymousreply 27807/27/2020

R278, voting was plugged into me from the time I was a little kid. My parents took me to the polls with them and preached the importance of voting. I just worry that the message has gotten lost. I've been voting for almost 30 years now and I think I've voted absentee once. I'm considering doing it again this year.

by Anonymousreply 27907/27/2020

[quote]voting was plugged into me from the time I was a little kid

Pics please.

by Anonymousreply 28007/27/2020

[quote] I don't understand how people neglect to vote.

I realized this past weekend that I actually know an actual undecided voter. Basically, she skims the news looking for confirmation that everything is shit and that neither party respects the little people like her. In her opinion both sides are equally bad.

She's waiting to decide for whom to vote (or not) based on who can put an end to all of this election "nonsense" so things can get back to normal.

by Anonymousreply 28107/27/2020

she sounds despicable, r281

by Anonymousreply 28207/27/2020

The problem is, R282, she's not.

I used to work with her and my biggest complaint was that her eagerness and energy far outpaced her ability to strategize. She epitomizes that ethic of commitment and hard work and labor over education and planning and intangibles (like capital "A" Art). When we worked together, I could always count on her to get things done. The problem was always to talk all the way through the equation because she just didn't/doesn't think about consequences--only about doing good, hard work.

What I fear, though, is that there are many, many, many more of her. At one point she was saying how she is having a hard time sleeping because some of the stores in her suburb were damaged and she's afraid of someone coming for her house (which I've seen; it's modest and nothing intrinsically worth damaging, but a home, in the best sense of the word, lovingly crafted and curated over the years). She's not thinking about the facts of the protest being only a couple of days, a couple of months ago.

I guess what I'm saying is that she's not despicable. She's human; but spoiled, sheltered, uniformed and scared.

by Anonymousreply 28307/27/2020

[quote]In her opinion both sides are equally bad.

In other words, she's the epitome of a low-information voter. And by low-information, of course, I mean stupid.

She'll vote for Trump, as she was intending to all along.

by Anonymousreply 28407/27/2020

Lindsey Graham, Jamie Harrison in statistical tie in Senate race: internal poll

Democrat Jaime Harrison’s Senate campaign released an internal poll on Monday finding him in a statistical tie with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). The survey, conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, finds Graham at 43 percent and Harrison at 41 percent. That’s within the survey’s 3.5-point margin of error. The poll found that 51 percent of respondents disapprove of the job Graham is doing. About 33 percent of South Carolina voters polled said Graham deserves to be reelected, with 59 percent saying it’s time for someone new.

VIA THE HILL.

by Anonymousreply 28507/27/2020

Goodbye to la Senatrice, last surviving cast member of Gone With the Wind!

by Anonymousreply 28607/27/2020

I don’t trust internal polls

by Anonymousreply 28707/27/2020

R287 why? They are known to be highly accurate. Only when internal polls are bad does a candidate make big moves.

by Anonymousreply 28807/27/2020

KFF July Tracking Poll finds voters' views of how President Trump is handling key issues dropped since May 2020.

Job as President (8 point drop)

Economy (19 point drop)

Health Care (13 point drop)

Coronavirus (18 point drop)

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by Anonymousreply 28907/27/2020

i seriously misread KFF tracking poll as KFC tracking poll.

Yeah, I'm not hungry...

by Anonymousreply 29007/27/2020

KFC never should’ve got rid of potato wedges. Dumbest thing ever.

by Anonymousreply 29107/28/2020

Do you have any poll numbers on that r291?

by Anonymousreply 29207/28/2020

You should not trust internal polls r288. Most internal polling is private, the only time they get leaked is as a PR strategy.

by Anonymousreply 29307/28/2020

KFC got rid of their wedges?????!!!!

by Anonymousreply 29407/28/2020

R293, internal polling is much more accurate than the polls we see publicly. Of course it’s used as a strategy. Why would that dismiss their accuracy?

by Anonymousreply 29507/28/2020

If something is only selectively released you are not seeing an accurate picture r295. If you had access to a campaigns entire internal polling that is one thing, but you are looking at what they cherry pick to release. That makes it bunk.

by Anonymousreply 29607/28/2020

too early, lazy american won't vote if they see this

by Anonymousreply 29707/28/2020

It's not bunk. Ask my yourself why you haven't seen much if internal polling out if the Trump camp. It's because they don't have much good polling to release.

by Anonymousreply 29807/28/2020

You do you, I am just trying to help.

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by Anonymousreply 29907/28/2020

[QUOTE] Do you have any poll numbers on that R291?

R292, I’m hoping PollTroll can provide us some numbers on this hot new [italic]wedge issue.[/italic]

by Anonymousreply 30007/28/2020

Typos aside in r298 (it's way to early for me to care), companion to what I said about Trump not releasing polling...they released a Minnesota poll yesterday showing Biden+5 and that was only to show that Biden is not up the 13 and 16 that recent polls showed. It's not bunk that Biden +5 in Minnesota.

by Anonymousreply 30107/28/2020

Political climate or not, I would have a hard time believing any poll that says Jamie Harrison has any chance of winning in SC.

by Anonymousreply 30207/28/2020

[quote]Ask my yourself why you haven't seen much if internal polling out if the Trump camp. It's because they don't have much good polling to release.

Donald assured us yesterday that their internal polls "show me leading in almost every swing state and substantially in other states by even more than I won in ’16."

And if there's one thing Donald is known for, it's telling the truth.

by Anonymousreply 30307/28/2020

Well, r303 if them releasing Minnesota showing Biden in the lead is any indication then the Trump campaign is in real trouble and you can bet your ass Trump will lie about it. According to Mary Trump it's 'toxic positivity'.

by Anonymousreply 30407/28/2020

New Monmouth poll also shows Trump is close in Minnesota, tied in NC, up by three in Ohio.

by Anonymousreply 30507/28/2020

Do you mean Morning Consult? They're a B/C pollster which isn't horrible, but the poll released yesterday by A+ Marist shows Biden +7 in NC. I'd say Ohio is around even to slightly in Trump's favor, but NC and MN are in Biden's column.

by Anonymousreply 30607/28/2020

VA is a solid Dem lock right? Thank god.

by Anonymousreply 30707/28/2020

No one considers VA a swing state anymore. That Teump couldn't come close to winning it in 2016 was the nail in the coffin.

by Anonymousreply 30807/28/2020

Yeah I meant MC

by Anonymousreply 30907/28/2020

I wouldn’t say Virginia is a “solid Democratic lock,” mainly because of its recent red state history. While it is certainly trending bluer, I think it’s better to say it’s a swing state that now lends blue.

by Anonymousreply 31007/28/2020

I live in Virginia and have been a Virginian all my life. In spite of voting for Democrats in the last three presidential elections and the state legislature going blue, I am not convinced that we are a solid blue state. I think we're more violet than anything.

by Anonymousreply 31107/28/2020

I agree. At best, VA is leaning blue, or likely blue.

by Anonymousreply 31207/28/2020

98 days left!

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by Anonymousreply 31307/28/2020

I'm so eager to learn who's Biden's running mate, but I know it's probably better not to announce it too soon, since things are going well (not rocking the boat, etc.). I think it'll be one of those things you wait and wait for, but happens well into August (vs. August 1 or so, which is what Biden said was the approximate date).

by Anonymousreply 31407/28/2020

Biden needs to be careful about who counsels him. The revelation Chris Dodd is advising him on the VP choice is not being received well

by Anonymousreply 31507/28/2020

Stay on your toes.

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by Anonymousreply 31607/28/2020
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by Anonymousreply 31707/28/2020

[QUOTE] Biden needs to be careful about who counsels him. The revelation Chris Dodd is advising him on the VP choice is not being received well

Who’s not receiving it well, R315? Nina Turner?

by Anonymousreply 31807/28/2020

R315, Dodd’s being on the search committee has been public for months. On Pod Save they mentioned it yesterday, but it’s not a revelation.

by Anonymousreply 31907/28/2020

[quote]I'm so eager to learn who's Biden's running mate

I find I have no interest or excitement about it all. I'm going to vote for him if he names a turnip as his running mate. I've never thought the choice of VP matters that much and I think it matters less this year than ever.

I'm not even sure his VP will have a leg up for the 2024 nomination -- we're going to have crazy election cycles for a while.

by Anonymousreply 32007/28/2020

Twitter activists

by Anonymousreply 32107/28/2020

Twitter activists

by Anonymousreply 32207/28/2020

Pod Save America yesterday: they were talking about the article below. Tommy and the British host of The Intercept's new podcast, Medhi Hasan. Dodd's quote is the beginning of the title.

The Pod Save guys are all about Warren or any Black woman being VP, and in defense of Harris, they were saying something like "Why should Dodd's opinion matter, given he may have #metoo issues."

(The Pod Save bros really aren't fans of Duckworth, because she's neither progressive nor Black. They despised Yang as well, but couldn't rag on Biden during the primaries because they worked for him in the administration.)

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by Anonymousreply 32307/28/2020

VA is fucking blue. Obama, Obama, Clinton, Dem Govs, Two Dem Senators. The state or congressional delegation has been gerrymandered.

Internal polls are highly accurate. Pols pay huge $$ to make sure they’re getting accurate information. They decide so much based on internal polls. Now, this prez prefers lying and being lied to so his internals I wouldn’t believe because he’d pay to have rosy numbers. Nobody else would.

by Anonymousreply 32407/28/2020

The last time a VP pick swayed the election in the candidate's favor was way back in 1960 with LBJ as Kennedy's VP.

The number one deciding factor now in a VP selection is Do No Harm, because while a VP won't win an election for you, they could help lose it (see Palin). But even that's debatable (see Quayle).

by Anonymousreply 32507/28/2020

I don’t know the extent of the impact, but Pence definitely helped Trump because of his evangelical bona fides. Moreover, Pence was perceived as a normal, sane politician, which helped allay swing state jitters over Trump.

by Anonymousreply 32607/28/2020

Yes, Pence stopped all those evangelicals from voting for Hillary.

by Anonymousreply 32707/28/2020

R324, he threatened to sue Brad Parscale over his low poll numbers. I'm sure everyone thinks it's easier just to lie to him at this point.

by Anonymousreply 32807/28/2020

Gore might have helped Clinton win Tennessee in 92 and 96, but by 2000, Gore couldn’t win his home state. The Southern transformation was complete

by Anonymousreply 32907/28/2020

I think Clinton had TN in the bag. Remember, Clinton won GA, MT, AZ, MO, KY.

by Anonymousreply 33007/28/2020

[quote]The last time a VP pick swayed the election in the candidate's favor was way back in 1960 with LBJ as Kennedy's VP.

Agreed, but with Biden's age and his suggestion that he might not run for re-election, his VP pick does carry some extra weight this year.

by Anonymousreply 33107/28/2020

R331. No. It doesn’t. This is Russian talking points. You can’t drag Biden so the attempt now is to make the VP the issue. Won’t work.

by Anonymousreply 33207/28/2020

the VP only matters because creates something new for the media to talk about. Really the VP selection does not have a significant effect on how people vote.

by Anonymousreply 33307/28/2020

The only thing in this election that matters is our disaster of a prez and his incompetence, incompetent administration and them leaving us in ruins.

by Anonymousreply 33407/28/2020

Susan Rice is such a messy prospect. Ugh. It's like Hillary all over again. Just inject a Hillary into the race and ruin everything.

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by Anonymousreply 33507/28/2020

Susan Rice will not be VP.

by Anonymousreply 33607/28/2020

I hope Tlalib gets primaried. Sick of her.

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by Anonymousreply 33707/28/2020

“Trump supporters more enthusiastic than Biden's: poll”

The Hill:

Supporters of President Trump are more enthusiastic about their candidate than those who back presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, according to a new poll.

In The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey, 42 percent of Trump supporters polled described themselves as excited heading into the election, while 31 percent of Biden supporters said the same.

Nearly three-quarters of Biden's supporters, 72 percent, also described themselves as anxious about the election, compared to 52 percent of Trump backers who said the same.

And 65 percent of Biden supporters surveyed said they are frustrated about the upcoming election, compared to 45 percent of Trump supporters.

Despite the enthusiasm gap favoring Trump, the poll found that just 38 percent of respondents approved of the president’s performance and 32 percent approved of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

The poll also finds that respondents were more likely to describe Biden as “capable” than Trump, 56 percent to 43 percent, but that much larger majorities of Trump supporters agree with the description that their candidate “stands up for what he believes” (87 percent to 63 percent), is a “strong leader”(75 percent vs. 50 percent), and is “capable” (76 percent vs. 56 percent).

Older Biden supporters are far more likely to describe Biden in such ways than those under 45, according to the survey.

On character issues, 56 percent of respondents agreed somewhat or extremely with the statement that Biden “cares about people like you,” compared to 39 percent who said the same for Trump. The same percentage of respondents agreed somewhat or very much with the description of Biden as “honest,” while 39 percent said the same for the president.

The poll surveyed 1,057 adults, including 922 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

by Anonymousreply 33807/28/2020

R338 Won’t make a fucking difference. They’ve always been enthusiastic for him. They’re a cult. 2017, 18, 19, and 20 say it doesn’t matter. 20 to 30 point swings to a Dems in every election since.

by Anonymousreply 33907/28/2020

The big difference for Tennessee (and Kentucky) for Gore, was he was in a two-way race. Clinton was lucky to have a three-way race with Ross Perot dividing the conservatives and centrists. This tipped Montana, Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, New Hampshire and Tennessee to Clinton that might not have been possible in a two-way head to head election. Gore also laid an egg with VP choice Joe Lieberman, he should have picked Bob Graham (Former popular governor and senator of Florida) instead.

by Anonymousreply 34007/28/2020

[quote]“Trump supporters more enthusiastic than Biden's: poll”

Because they're insane.

by Anonymousreply 34107/28/2020

Jim Jones' supporters were really enthusiastic, too.

by Anonymousreply 34207/28/2020

R342 Well, exactly. Zombie Apocalypse: Oh, but the living dead are so enthusiastic for your flesh!

by Anonymousreply 34307/28/2020

People who want to vote AGAINST Trump are very, very enthusiastic.

by Anonymousreply 34407/28/2020

Correct, r344. There is an enthusiasm gap in 2020 but it's not in Trump's favor. Far more people hate Trump than hate Biden.

by Anonymousreply 34507/28/2020

R340. HW would have lost regardless. Conservatives were not voting for him in enough numbers. They would have Hillary’d him.

by Anonymousreply 34607/28/2020

[quote] I did love the comment about "getting control of COVID," though, since the outbreak is so very much not under control.

I’m not the one who said that, but COVID will peak. And then it will start coming down. An infectious disease goes through the population, hits its peak & numbers level off. That’s what Trump is waiting for. As soon as the numbers level off, he’s going to claim a YUGE success. “We’ve contained the virus. Numbers are coming down thanks to our effort & strategy. We're beating it, folks. We’re beating this virus that democrats are responsible for. It’s democrat cities that spread it. You know it & I know it. It wasn’t Great America’s fault. It was just the democrat cities that suffered. And now....we saved ‘em. That’s how good we are. We saved democrats, how ‘bout that? A few good people caught the virus thanks to disgusting, dirty democrats.

Democrats carried it around & spread it and when good people fled those disgusting, flaming cities to get away from dirty diseased democrats, they accidentally caught it & that’s a shame. That’s a shame. But we’ve got it under control, folks. If this happened under Obama, millions would be dead. The numbers would still be going up, up, up.”

I think the numbers will go down before November.

Just when you think you’ve got Trump, he always wiggles away and dives into his safety hole.

by Anonymousreply 34707/28/2020

That could happen. But globally, we have seen that the virus does not stay suppressed long if a region is even somewhat open. America has never been as closed and locked down as most places with significant outbreaks. We are nowhere near herd immunity, and it would take until next year to reach it by acquisition of the virus. There is a good chance there will be resurgences over the next 98 days, if not the beginning of the dreaded autumn wave.

by Anonymousreply 34807/28/2020

R347 No one is going to buy that. Nope. He’s done. We’ve all had it with his constant bullshit. We’ve seen his remarkable incompetence. He’s rightfully to blame for the mess we’re in. PS- rural areas are seeing high numbers. In TX, many rural residents are searching for hospitals and finding it difficult to get one remotely close.

by Anonymousreply 34907/28/2020

Biden is doing well during this press conference. He speaks like a regular Joe

by Anonymousreply 35007/28/2020

I’ve been watching it too, R350. Not bad for a man suffering from dementia who will melt when he has to face the towering debate virtuoso known as Donald Trump.

by Anonymousreply 35107/28/2020

Nobody has been a bigger Joe fan than me here on DL, r350, but my boy needs to learn the art of a pithy answer.

by Anonymousreply 35207/28/2020

R352 yes but that’s what I find authentic about him. He was in politics forever but never spoke like a politician. He was a gaffe machine like regular people. Lol

by Anonymousreply 35307/28/2020

Glad Democrats are adding live applause to Biden press conference

by Anonymousreply 35407/28/2020

He’s not going to learn anything new at 77. He is what he is. The man was a senator for 35 years; he doesn’t know the meaning of the word pithy. They can go on forever. Barack Obama had the same problem.

by Anonymousreply 35507/28/2020

I agree about authenticity r353, but long, monotone answers can put you to sleep.

by Anonymousreply 35607/28/2020

I think Americans are looking for a president who can put them to sleep right now. I haven’t had a good night’s rest since November 2016.

by Anonymousreply 35707/28/2020

We are looking for action not how someone speaks. Everybody I know feels Biden speaks with authority and authenticity.

by Anonymousreply 35807/28/2020

I'm seeing shades of 2016 here.

by Anonymousreply 35907/28/2020

R359 Then you need new glasses.... at your age.

by Anonymousreply 36007/28/2020

[quote] No one is going to buy that.

Allow me to introduce you to the red states, many of which went to war to keep slavery & where they still revere the men who led the charge into that battle. States where the Ku Klux Klan owned the legislature. States where the people are protected by magic underwear.

States where there are dry counties. States where zygotes are more important than children & sick people. States where men tell women what women can do with their bodies. States where I can shoot you & claim I felt threatened by you & I won’t be arrested or detained.

States where guns have more rights than people do. States where they take polling places away from minority areas & rig elections right out in the open. States where they believe if you do less testing, then you wont have as many cases.

States where they believe wearing a coated paper mask to protect vulnerable people’s lives (maybe even their own) is such a violation of their god-given freedom that they’ll beat & kill people rather than wear one. States where they risk their lives in an epidemic to fill an arena to listen to Donald Trump whine about slippery ramps & joke about not letting people have health care so he’ll look good.

States where they repeatedly vote against their best interests.

by Anonymousreply 36107/28/2020

R361 States which siphon off dollars from blue state.

Let them go.

by Anonymousreply 36207/28/2020

R361 Joe isn’t going for red states. He’s going for swing states and right now is cleaning up there it seems.

by Anonymousreply 36307/28/2020

Whether you like it or not, those states are voting in this election. Saying “nobody’s going to buy” Trump’s schtick is a fantasy. Over 40% of voters in this election will buy it & the “undecideds” are people like Ken Bone. They bought Trump in 2016 knowing he was a sex abuser, a man who thought about his daughter’s sexiness all the time, a thrice married, 6x bankrupted “businessman.” Most believed he was a self made billionaire. They think his wife is classy & that a tiny epidemiologist has studied science & disease all of his life just to play a hoax on them.

by Anonymousreply 36407/28/2020

**MAINE**

July 28, 2020

Colby College poll

PRESIDENT > Biden +12

ME-1 > Biden +20

ME-2 > Biden +3

SENATE > Sara Gideon (D) +5 over Susan Collins (R)

HOUSE > Jared Golden (D) +12

[888 Likely Maine Voters, conducted July 18-24]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 36507/28/2020

Yup, shades of 2016.

by Anonymousreply 36607/28/2020

Hillary never had this kind of lead over Trump. Or Bernie Sanders.

by Anonymousreply 36707/28/2020

She should have R367!

She was the most qualified candidate every to run for president. She is so smart and so capable. But all those years of right wing media slamming her made people think they hated her.

I have yet to meet one person who can give me a legitimate reason why they hate her. When I ask they say things like "she can't be trusted." What does that even mean? She was trusted to be the Secretary of State for the United States of American for four years!!

[INSERT SEVERAL MORE PARAGRAPHS HERE ABOUT COMEY, THE NEW YORK TIMES, CNN, MATT LAUER AND BERNIE SANDERS]

So I don't think it's fair to point out that she never had that kind of lead over Trump. If we did not live in such a horribly misogynistic society she would have had a massive lead and won. Actually she did win--by three million voter.

[INSERT SEVERAL PARAGRAPHS ABOUT THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, COMEY, THE NEW YORK TIMES, CNN, MATT LAUER AND BERNIE SANDERS]

So take your woman-hating bullshit about her never having this kind of lead elsewhere, BernieBoris! And think of how much better off we'd be now if Hillary was in the White House right now!

Think about it!!!!

by Anonymousreply 36807/28/2020

Actually when I think of Biden's stump style I think immediately of his pithy answer in 2008 in response to a question about Bristol Palin's shotgun wedding: "Children are off limits." It was obviously expected, rehearsed, and sanctimonious, but it was pithy and got plaudits for his righteousness. He can use that style.

by Anonymousreply 36907/28/2020

Fewer voters are confident that Trump will win reelection.

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by Anonymousreply 37007/28/2020

Nina Turner is a terrible person. Disgusting.

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by Anonymousreply 37107/28/2020

Agreed R371

Even if I agreed with her (I don't) using that metaphor would turn me off.

And as we know, the BernieBro movement was not a movement at all and exists mostly on Twitter.

by Anonymousreply 37207/28/2020

[quote]I’m not the one who said that, but COVID will peak. And then it will start coming down.

We've already been there. We don't have a single COVID outbreak; we have multiple outbreaks. And as some states are finally starting to bring it under control, it's ramping up in others, just as happened earlier this summer.

[quote]An infectious disease goes through the population, hits its peak & numbers level off. That’s what Trump is waiting for. As soon as the numbers level off, he’s going to claim a YUGE success.

He's already tried that tactic, multiple times. It isn't going to work because those numbers aren't going to come down enough by the time people are making their decision.

[quote]Just when you think you’ve got Trump, he always wiggles away and dives into his safety hole.

Not this time. On COVID, the opinions are pretty well baked in.

by Anonymousreply 37307/28/2020

[quote]Whether you like it or not, those states are voting in this election.

There aren't enough electoral votes in the red states to elect Trump. He's losing the blue states and he's currently losing the swing states.

Yes, he's going to get 40% of the vote. And, based on the data we have right now, that won't be enough.

by Anonymousreply 37407/28/2020

Silly Homosexuals.

Silly, silly, silly Homosexuals.

You still don't get it.

When the economy is booming, pussy grabbing is sort of embarrassing but no big deal.

And Mexicans in cages are still, well, Mexicans.

But when people you know start dying and 150 thousand of them are dead and the economy is tanking and there are people lining up at food banks to get something to eat and the president says "I take no responsibility for this" and then urges you to try injecting yourself with bleach, .... ain't no way most people are giving him anything close to the benefit of the doubt.

Where TF have you homosexuals been?

He's been in complete and total freefall since the Tulsa Disaster on June 20th.

It's over.

All the GOP can do now is triage and hope the damage isn't that bad.

Again, where TF have you been?

McTurtle doesn't have the voters for his relief bill because enough moderate Senators are defecting because they know if they don't they definitely won't have a job come November.

by Anonymousreply 37507/28/2020

R375, what about cheating? Voter suppression?

by Anonymousreply 37607/28/2020

That's triage R376

Biden is up by over 10 points now.

Shit's going to get a lot worse in the fall as infections go up and businesses tank and people don't have food, and so that number is going to go up.

But think Homosexual

10 fucking points.

He might be able to get himself another 5 percent of the vote by voter suppression and fraud.

But 10%? 12%

Be real.

by Anonymousreply 37707/28/2020

This is happening now R376

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by Anonymousreply 37807/28/2020

“A noun, a verb & 9/11”

by Anonymousreply 37907/28/2020

What was Rudy Giuliani's 2004 presidential campaign?

I'll take Insane Old White Men for $600, please R379

by Anonymousreply 38007/28/2020

And this too R376

[bold] "Trump defends sharing video on discredited drug and falsely claims much of U.S. is ‘corona free.’"

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by Anonymousreply 38107/28/2020

R361, those states you describe wouldn't care if Trump said "we beat the virus" or not, because they're going to go Trump regardless.

What you said was that the virus will peak and drop, and Trump will gain votes by falsely claiming he's beaten the virus. What you described, however, are people who were already going to vote for Trump, i.e. not gains at all.

There's a prevailing theory that the virus will peak and fall in the summer as more people are outside where the virus doesn't spread as easily, but will start to increase again as people stay indoors and schools reopen, and millions are stuck inside for hours a day with the virus circulating thanks to the air handling units. The plateau we might be seeing right now doesn't seem like it's going to be permanent.

by Anonymousreply 38207/28/2020

It was never supposed to spike in the summer yet look where we are. We’ve already used our shut down card. Herd immunity would be a horrific nightmare to get to. This was botched by him in such a spectacular way. Wow

by Anonymousreply 38307/28/2020

Even cunts think Nina Turner is a bigger cunt.

by Anonymousreply 38407/28/2020

[quote]Silly Homosexuals.

[quote]Silly, silly, silly Homosexuals.

[quote]Where TF have you homosexuals been?

[quote]But think Homosexual

You know, I pretty much agree with all of the thoughts in your insipid posts.

by Anonymousreply 385Last Wednesday at 1:32 AM

#New North Carolina NBC Poll:

President: Biden 51% (+7) Trump 44%

#NCSen: Cunningham (D) 50% Tillis (R-Inc) 41%

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by Anonymousreply 386Last Wednesday at 4:02 AM

NEW @MorningConsult Poll (7/17-26):

#AZsen: Kelly (D) 52% (+16) McSally (R-inc) 36%

#MIsen: Peters (D-inc) 49% (+14) James (R) 35%

#NCsen: Cunningham (D) 46% (+9) Tillis (R-inc) 37%

by Anonymousreply 387Last Wednesday at 4:03 AM

North Carolina Senate GE: Cunningham (D) 52% (+12) Tillis (R-inc) 40%

@ChangePolls/@CNBC 7/24-26

by Anonymousreply 388Last Wednesday at 4:32 AM

Keep sending Cal Cunningham money

by Anonymousreply 389Last Wednesday at 4:34 AM

The numbers for those Senate races are BRUTAL for Republicans. No question that Trump is dragging them all down.

by Anonymousreply 390Last Wednesday at 7:21 AM

Now there is a conspiracy theory that Trump voters are saying Biden when polled so there will be a close race and then all hell breaks loose.

by Anonymousreply 391Last Wednesday at 7:27 AM

R391, I can believe it. Even Vox did an article on the polls yesterday.

I'm in Western PA and I shake my head everytime I see a PA poll showing Biden up 10 and 11. I'm not see that level of support on the ground.

by Anonymousreply 392Last Wednesday at 7:32 AM

The Senate polls support the accuracy of the Biden leads. Presumably, voting for a garden variety Republican would not bring the level of shame as vote for Trump.

by Anonymousreply 393Last Wednesday at 7:56 AM

An even better indicator that the Republicans are in trouble is the result of elections since 2016, which as posters upthread have noted have usually gone against the Republicans. Maybe some Trump supporters are lying they're for Biden, and anything can happen, but is there any reason to think that there's a hidden resurgence of support for a party that's been losing at actual polls—not opinion polls—so consistently for the last few years?

by Anonymousreply 394Last Wednesday at 8:09 AM

Thank you R394. Why so many people are determined to pretend no elections have happened since 2016 is beyond me.

by Anonymousreply 395Last Wednesday at 8:10 AM

MCLATCHY DC: Trump’s campaign is not currently running TV or radio ads in Michigan and its allied super PAC has been dark in the state for most of July, a possible indication that the key Upper Midwestern battleground is beginning to fall out of reach.

“The numbers are dismal,” said one GOP pollster familiar with internal data tracking the state. “Hard to see how it remains competitive.”

by Anonymousreply 396Last Wednesday at 8:16 AM

R394 but there is actual evidence that it's happening. Live call polls vs polling where you are directed to an online form (and I'm talking legitimate online vs. a CNN online type poll) are showing lower results for Democrats.

by Anonymousreply 397Last Wednesday at 8:18 AM

Sure, R397, "lower results for Democrats," but so low that it contradicts the Democratic advantage that other indicators point to?

by Anonymousreply 398Last Wednesday at 8:28 AM

A good example of polling issues can be seen today. Democrats released a number of internal polls today, including one for PA. The internal poll, which was an online poll, shows Biden +2 whereas the Fox News Poll conducted by phone showed Biden +11. And Fox is a highly rated pollster and is ideologically unrelated to the news channel.

by Anonymousreply 399Last Wednesday at 8:29 AM

R397, the theory is that Trump voters are less honest when speaking to a live person, and many of the live-only polls also have a very low response rate, which impacts accuracy. Despite all that, some of the most reliable polls are the live ones, so this idea that Trump voters are just lying out of embarrassment or to throw pollsters off doesn't add up.

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by Anonymousreply 400Last Wednesday at 8:37 AM

More on the difference between live and other polling:

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by Anonymousreply 401Last Wednesday at 8:37 AM

There aren't any secret Trump voters

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by Anonymousreply 402Last Wednesday at 8:38 AM

These same circular discussions over and over. I guess inevitable until the election. But again: 2018... relentless comments about the polls showing democratic victories were "not to be trusted" because of 2016. Then the election, and for the most part democrats out-performed predictions.

Parallels: 2018 - the caravan the caravan the caravan - dog whistling Trump's supporters to the polls... and they still lost. 2020 - antifa anarchists chaos on the streets we are taking back these dangerous democrat-run big cities.. (while the economic continues to crash with damage that will last a decade, 150,000 dead, and a pandemic that shows no sign of ending).

2020 is not 2016. 2020 is not even 2018.

by Anonymousreply 403Last Wednesday at 8:39 AM

I'd like to know where all these secret Trump supporters are. All those I know can't shut up about him.

by Anonymousreply 404Last Wednesday at 8:39 AM

Are there any secret voters in Senate races then? Why Democrats are still outperforming Republican candidates? Are they still ashamed to admit they are voting for McSally or Collins?

by Anonymousreply 405Last Wednesday at 8:44 AM

R400 that is an internal poll and that pollsters has been correct 77% of the time, which is a better average than some of 538s higher rated pollsters.

by Anonymousreply 406Last Wednesday at 8:44 AM

R405, I think most voters vote all D or R. So no.

by Anonymousreply 407Last Wednesday at 8:44 AM

To add, r400 is rated A- by 538 and has only be right 71% of the time.

by Anonymousreply 408Last Wednesday at 8:46 AM

The article at R400 refers to several different polls, so which one are you talking about R406/R408?

by Anonymousreply 409Last Wednesday at 8:48 AM

[quote] I'm not see that level of support on the ground.

Because it's fucking July! People aren't putting yard signs up yet--I doubt most campaigns have even had them made up.

by Anonymousreply 410Last Wednesday at 8:53 AM

The two that I have been from the start...Change Research and Fox.

And just to point out to all of you...Marist has Mark Kelly +12 and in the same poll conducted with the same people Biden is +5.

by Anonymousreply 411Last Wednesday at 8:54 AM

Aw, honey @r410 you don't understand Midwest politics.

by Anonymousreply 412Last Wednesday at 8:56 AM

[quote]I'm not see that level of support on the ground.

Biden had no field offices or ads in most of the states on Super Tuesday and still won in a landslide in all of them. This election is all about Trump.

by Anonymousreply 413Last Wednesday at 8:57 AM

This is not rocket science

In 2016 Trump was a relative unknown who was running against someone half the country viscerally despised. And so people were able to convince themselves that he would not be that bad, that he had been a liberal Democrat earlier in his life, he was friends with lots of liberal Democrats, he'd get bored of the job, he was a populist--whatever excuse they needed to avoid voting for Hillary, someone who, rightly or wrongly, made so many otherwise rational people recoil in abject horror.

But now everyone knows who Trump is and his awfulness far exceeds their wildest expectations.

And hardly anyone hates Joe Biden

by Anonymousreply 414Last Wednesday at 8:58 AM

Personally, I would imagine that is a good thing r412.

by Anonymousreply 415Last Wednesday at 8:58 AM

Labor Day traditionally is the beginning of intense campaign season. At the earliest, the conventions

by Anonymousreply 416Last Wednesday at 8:59 AM

Yes it is, r413, and Western PA is all about Trump except for Pittsburgh proper and even that's become redder.

by Anonymousreply 417Last Wednesday at 9:00 AM

Where's the evidence of all these secret Trump voters in the actual 2016 election results? Nationally the numbers were squarely within the national polls--Clinton won the popular vote by just about what was expected from the polls. Going to the swing states, most were in the toss up category by election day (thanks to Comey's letter, which plummeted Clinton's polls numbers). Trump SQUEAKED by in PA and FL. He had unexpectedly strong wins in OH and WI--two states where HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF VOTERS were thrown off the rolls in 2016 (there were other states with egregious voter suppression, but they were expected to to to Trump anyway). Otherwise all the wins were pretty much within the MOE. There's nothing about 2016 that suggests "secret" Trump support--it's just a cover for all the GOP ratfucking. If there were all these secret Trump voters, we'd see a much more lopsided result.

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by Anonymousreply 418Last Wednesday at 9:02 AM

You need to look at the state polls for that r418. You say he squeaked by in PA but he wasn't even supposed to do that.

by Anonymousreply 419Last Wednesday at 9:05 AM

For realz R418?

4 years later and there are many DLers who are still in shock over Her loss and looking to blame everyone and anyone.

When it all boils down to something as simple as "rightly or wrongly, many traditional Democrats hate Hillary with the heat of ten thousand suns and could not bring themselves to vote for her."

Period.

End of story.

by Anonymousreply 420Last Wednesday at 9:07 AM

[quote]Trump SQUEAKED

MP3 please.

by Anonymousreply 421Last Wednesday at 9:28 AM

R419 I did look at them. Did you? Because you'd see, for example, that Trump barely winning in PA is still well within the MOE in the polls leading up to the election.

R420 I don't know what your point is, but nothing you said is evidence of a large number of secret Trump supporters.

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by Anonymousreply 422Last Wednesday at 12:44 PM

R421, close enough?:

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by Anonymousreply 423Last Wednesday at 12:45 PM

During the 2016 campaign, while Hillary was consistently up in PA polls, a PA DLer kept reporting he/she saw tons of Trump signs and bumper stickers around. Maybe it was R392.

Turned out he/ she was the DL canary in the coalmine. Lesson: don't pooh-pooh reports from the ground,

We hope 2020 will follow the 2018 pattern and not 2016 - but it doesn't hurt to discount the poll results for the 'lying Trump voter ' effect which I think is real.

by Anonymousreply 424Last Wednesday at 1:20 PM

#Michigan Poll:

Biden 49% (+16) Trump 33%

Target Point

by Anonymousreply 425Last Wednesday at 1:57 PM

R424 So, reports from the ground: 100,000s of protestors in the streets. BLM signs all over (and all over the swing states). Consider those indicators.

by Anonymousreply 426Last Wednesday at 1:58 PM

As noted by many of us R424, there are NO signs up in most places--the campaigns haven't printed them yet, it's too early (The poster you are refering to, also, IIRC, claimed to see Warren posters in July, so veracity doubtful.)

And Hillary was not up by anywhere close to double digits.

She had a slight Pussy Grab bump and Debate Stalk bump but that was it, her lead was generally under 5 points, which is a considered a sizeable lead.

by Anonymousreply 427Last Wednesday at 2:00 PM

And this #TrumpFail today

It's the sort of appeal that may have worked in 1968, but 52 years later, has limited appeal beyond elderly bigots.

(And if USA Today is pointing out that the tweet is racist...)

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by Anonymousreply 428Last Wednesday at 2:04 PM

I'm not gonna lie, I may have some PTSD from 2016. It makes me cautious and question everything about this election. When you are let down by so many people in so many different ways, it's hard to not look at everything through a cracked lens.

by Anonymousreply 429Last Wednesday at 2:08 PM

It’s not only 2016. 2004 was a horrific shocker too.

by Anonymousreply 430Last Wednesday at 2:10 PM

I can understand that R429, but remember this-- Oprah Winfrey is not going on TV saying "I know you all hate Joe Biden. But he's better than Trump. So be like me, hold your nose and vote for him anyway." (And other reasons Trump's victory surprised by did not shock me.)

Similarly, no one is saying "but his kids seem to really like him, and he was a liberal Democrat for years, he was actually friendly with the Clintons, they were at his wedding, he'll get bored of the job after a few months and go back to playing golf."

There seems to be a true revulsion right now outside of his rapidly shrinking base.

by Anonymousreply 431Last Wednesday at 2:13 PM

Remember when Trump pulled ads in October 2016?

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by Anonymousreply 432Last Wednesday at 2:17 PM

A wise move it turned out R432, given the he lost Colorado by 5 points, 48 to 43

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by Anonymousreply 433Last Wednesday at 2:20 PM

R427, it's not *literally* about the signs. It's about what they told the observer. The gist is, he/she foresaw the Trump win in PA while DL was convinced PA is in the bag.

[quote]So, reports from the ground: 100,000s of protestors in the streets. BLM signs all over (and all over the swing states). Consider those indicators.

Those indicators are summaries. The DLer was talking about a specific part of the state, and said Pittsburgh was getting redder. Unless you have more reliable observations about that, I think it's prudent to listen to the local people.

by Anonymousreply 434Last Wednesday at 2:21 PM

Joe Biden does not have cankles.

No one believes he runs a child porn ring out of a pizzeria

Millennials did not trade "Bernie vs Biden" memes as if they were baseball cards

Jill was never accused of cheating on him with an overweight young intern (or vice versa)

He never referred to Trump's voters as a basket of deplorables

"It's His Turn" was never seriously considered as a tag line for the Biden campaign

He maintains good relationships with reporters

His unfavorable ratings are not historically low

by Anonymousreply 435Last Wednesday at 2:24 PM

[quote]Jill was never accused of cheating on him with an overweight young intern

I tried. Dear lord, I tried.

by Anonymousreply 436Last Wednesday at 2:26 PM

R433, but: “ The previously planned spots are being pulled from stations in states that include Colorado, Maine, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, said Steve Passwaiter, a vice president and general manager at Kantar Media/CMAG..”

by Anonymousreply 437Last Wednesday at 2:31 PM

I think possibly the posters who think the polls were way off in 2016 are remembering the interpretations/analyses of the polls, which typically gave Clinton a "90% chance" of winning or the like (Nate Silver was an exception). The final poll numbers themselves proved to be quite accurate; Trump won the Electoral College by extremely narrow margins in three states.

by Anonymousreply 438Last Wednesday at 2:42 PM

^ Yes, people are confusing unreliable punditry with polls. Plus lots of people also do not understand statistics. If I remember right, Nate Silver had Trump's chances of winning at 30% going into the election. If you decide to go hiking on a day when there's 30% chance of rain and don't bring an umbrella, you're a fucking idiot.

by Anonymousreply 439Last Wednesday at 2:54 PM

Thank you R438. You are 100% correct.

Many DLers are also remembering the general consensus on Datalounge, which was that she had zero percent chance of losing. Many DLers live in Darkest Flyoverstan, surrounded by posses of Trumpists and would come here to fantasize about showing up their nasty cousins, frau-ish coworkers and bullying high school classmates when Hillary won

by Anonymousreply 440Last Wednesday at 3:00 PM

How was Hillary polling in July before the election?

by Anonymousreply 441Last Wednesday at 3:32 PM

Nate Cohn:

Trump campaign off the air in Michigan is a telling indication of where the race is at now

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by Anonymousreply 442Last Wednesday at 3:42 PM

Always a GREAT sign when your opponent starts retreating in states, especially a swing state that they won in their last election. We said from jump that the keys for Biden are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Trump has just handed us one of those states.

We’ve got ‘em on the run, boys. 😎

by Anonymousreply 443Last Wednesday at 3:59 PM

R441, not as good as Joe is now. The Democratic convention t the end of the month got her out of her July slump.

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by Anonymousreply 444Last Wednesday at 4:17 PM

On July 29th, 2016, they were tied R441, 44.3% each.

Trump had been up earlier in the week and Hillary took a small (3.2%) lead on the weekend.

Biden is far far far far far far far ahead of where she was.

by Anonymousreply 445Last Wednesday at 4:22 PM

Direct comparison:

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by Anonymousreply 446Last Wednesday at 4:30 PM

Presidential/Congressional Polling:

Presidential: Biden (D): 48% (+3) Trump (R): 40% (-1)

Congressional: Democrats: 45% (+2) Republicans: 38% (-2)

Optimus / July 28, 2020 / n=914 / Online

(% chg w June 27)

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by Anonymousreply 447Last Wednesday at 4:46 PM

National @Harvard-@HarrisPoll:

Biden 55% (+10) Trump 45%

by Anonymousreply 448Last Wednesday at 4:56 PM

I was one of the three, r424. And, yes, the replies I'm getting in this thread are remarkably similar to 2016, right down to the insistence that yard signs haven't been printed up yet. Hint: They have.

But this time it goes beyond yard signs and more voter registration and it's been decidedly Republican here in Western PA and it's the same in central PA from what I understand from a friend out there. What will hurt PA is if Penn State doesn't open fully.

by Anonymousreply 449Last Wednesday at 5:17 PM

Yard signs typically come out after the convention and after Labor Day.

Someone really wants to feel important.

"Honey! There's a homosexual at the door! He says he's from some place called Datalounge and he wants to talk to us about the election... .What? Yes, he's talking to everyone in the entire neighborhood--everyone in Western Pennsylvania actually.... well I guess he has a lot of time on his hands."

by Anonymousreply 450Last Wednesday at 5:24 PM

Sweetie, the three of us from PA heard the same shit on DL as we are hearing now. To the point it's amusing.

Is the guy from Bucks County still around?

by Anonymousreply 451Last Wednesday at 5:28 PM

Check these polls out.

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by Anonymousreply 452Last Wednesday at 5:36 PM

The overconfidence swings both ways. For example, the PA lawn sign folks are conveniently skipping over what happened in 2018. And despite all the yard signs, Trump only won PA by about 40k votes.

In reality, Covid is a huge potential monkey wrench and we have no way of measuring its potential effects on election day. PA numbers are ticking back up again, which could lower the number of returning college students, but also depress turnout of voters who would normally be GOP die-hards. His approval numbers among even GOP seniors and suburban women in PA are abysmal and it's not likely he's going to turn around his handling of the pandemic no matter how many times Dana Bash tells us his tone has changed.

by Anonymousreply 453Last Wednesday at 5:49 PM

R451, I’m from Bucks. Do you want me to tell you how it went from red to blue over the past three years?

by Anonymousreply 454Last Wednesday at 5:54 PM

The other issue in PA is there's a growing dislike how Wolf has handled the Covid crisis.

by Anonymousreply 455Last Wednesday at 5:55 PM

Actually, r454 the poster from 2016 already told us. He was an interesting person which is why I'd like to hear from him again.

by Anonymousreply 456Last Wednesday at 5:58 PM

What’s wrong with the way Wolf has handled the crisis, R455?

by Anonymousreply 457Last Wednesday at 5:58 PM

Why is anyone confident about what will happen In November, win or lose? 96 days is a very long time. So many things could happen or go wrong at the conventions, debates, the economy, COVID, Hunter Biden, etc. and then, there could be some unknown October Surprise that shocks the system and throws the election. We can only comment on current polls, but to extrapolate them to November results is folly.

by Anonymousreply 458Last Wednesday at 6:06 PM

The reopening was rolled back and businesses are closing in droves out here. The feeling was/is that the shutdown was too restrictive.

by Anonymousreply 459Last Wednesday at 6:08 PM

Where's the growing dislike? Wolf has strong approval numbers (waaaay higher than Trump), and some halfwit stunt to try and impeach him by GOP state reps landed with a thud.

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by Anonymousreply 460Last Wednesday at 6:09 PM

R459, this has been discussed. Pa is also doing much better than the rest of the country with containing the virus.

by Anonymousreply 461Last Wednesday at 6:12 PM

In the Western half of the state, r460. Our reopening was rolled back and in the last two weeks a number of places have folded as a result.

by Anonymousreply 462Last Wednesday at 6:13 PM

The reopening was rolled back because the numbers are ticking back up. I'm sure the deplorables who think it's a hoax are pissed at Wolf, but are the people with any sense pissed at him?

Wolf should go ahead and give Western PA what they want, and then there won't be enough of them around to vote come election time.

by Anonymousreply 463Last Wednesday at 6:21 PM

Of course, "anything can happen" in 96 days. But the trends (for Trump approval, for Biden's lead over Trump) have been notably consistent since March. Trump could bounce back in a volatile race. This is not volatile. Current opinion is hard-wired, baked in, done. Biden pretty much has over 50% and those voters are never going to change their minds and vote for Trump now.

So, it's turn out, and the trend among certain micro-demographics in a handful of swing states. (c.f. Trump's absurd tweet today... "suburban dreamers you won't have those nasty colored public housing folk anywhere near you, Daddy Bubba Orange promises!!" They know he's losing, and losing badly.

by Anonymousreply 464Last Wednesday at 6:23 PM

Yes, this might go down as one of the steadiest races in political history. Joe Biden has been kicking Trump’s ass in the polls for YEARS now, even before he announced his campaign. That’s why he was always the candidate who Trump feared most.

by Anonymousreply 465Last Wednesday at 6:26 PM

Trump isn't even trying to hide his blatant racism anymore.

by Anonymousreply 466Last Wednesday at 6:27 PM

[QUOTE]As early as last fall, Trump was talking privately with aides about the threat Biden posed: “How are we gonna beat Biden?” he would ask. When reassured that the moderate Biden would never defeat several of his more liberal rivals, Trump has pushed back: “But what if he does?”

[QUOTE] The conversations, relayed by a Republican strategist with direct knowledge of the interactions, reflect the president’s assessment that Biden poses the biggest threat to his re-election, uniquely capable of competing with him in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that carried him to victory in 2016.

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by Anonymousreply 467Last Wednesday at 6:30 PM

Yeah, r463, they have a point though. A few of the counties around Allegheny didn't need to roll back. I think three of the counties have taken Wolf to court for being too restrictive. Meantime, in Allegheny, it's the younger people that caused the bump and it could have been contained with better policing of certain bars like they're doing in NYC.

by Anonymousreply 468Last Wednesday at 6:34 PM

I thought Trump had a huge war chest. I'm surprised that he's pulling out of anywhere, unless his internal polling is really that bad.

by Anonymousreply 469Last Wednesday at 6:38 PM

vote

by Anonymousreply 470Last Wednesday at 6:38 PM

The same day we hear he's stopped advertising in MI, he holds a no-mask, no-distancing rally in Texas and hands out permits to energy companies. Is he now desperate to hold onto Texas?

by Anonymousreply 471Last Wednesday at 6:45 PM

[quote] vote

Would you stop with this horse shit? No one in any of these threads is not going to vote because the poll numbers look good. Get a grip.

by Anonymousreply 472Last Wednesday at 7:23 PM

George W Bush 37%

Michael Dukakis 54%

July 1988

by Anonymousreply 473Last Wednesday at 7:37 PM

R468, do the people in the counties around Allegheny understand that the virus doesn't acknowledge county borders and that it's going up in other Western counties? I'm sure they love to pretend they're salt of the earth and safe because they would never set foot in a big elitist city like Pittsburgh. (eyeroll), but the rest of the world knows that's crap.

Oh, and it's not just young people in bars:

"The Allegheny County Health Department Wednesday reported 125 new COVID-19 cases, 10 more hospitalizations and five additional deaths. The new cases are the result of 1,310 tests that were administered between July 8 and July 28, according to health officials. Those who have newly tested positive range in age from 1 to 98 years old, with the median age of 52. The county total is 7,718 cases."

But I still say Wolf should give the deplorables what they want and let them thin themselves out. Why should only the GOP get to ratfuck elections?

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by Anonymousreply 474Last Wednesday at 7:40 PM

Yes R473, and the Democratic convention was held mid-July in 1988. We've already covered this around here. Biden has had those numbers for months now without a convention bump.

by Anonymousreply 475Last Wednesday at 7:42 PM

[quote]>Now there is a conspiracy theory that Trump voters are saying Biden when polled so there will be a close race and then all hell breaks loose.

[quote I can believe it.

That's highly unlikely. I'm sure some are but -- as has been explained one hundred thousand times already -- enough people doing it in all areas of the country for months on end and in every poll is an almost impossible feat. Different people are polled every time, and contrary to popular belief, the vast majority of these people are not online to organize in such a massive way.

The theory was first pushed in 2016 to try to explain why the polls were wrong. The media and the GOP wanted you to think that the polls had been manipulated, when the real truth was that the polls could not account for FBI interference, Russian hacking of voter registration websites, and voter suppression.

by Anonymousreply 476Last Thursday at 4:10 AM

[quote]I'm in Western PA and I shake my head everytime I see a PA poll showing Biden up 10 and 11. I'm not see that level of support on the ground.

I can't wait until you start screaming about yard signs again.

by Anonymousreply 477Last Thursday at 4:12 AM

It's been screaming about yard signs already R477

Despite the fact that Biden signs would not be pushed en masse until after the convention when he's the actual nominee.

by Anonymousreply 478Last Thursday at 4:17 AM

[quote] Trump could bounce back in a volatile race. This is not volatile. Current opinion is hard-wired, baked in, done

This times one million.

Plus it's July 30th and Trump has been in complete fucking free-fall with a new disaster every day since his June 20th Tulsa rally.

None of his tricks are working. Even the Portland Gestapo trick. Everyone outside his super hardcore base realized that there were only a couple hundred people protesting in Portland, not tens of thousands, and his poll numbers were still going down, so yesterday he struck a deal to pull them out.

by Anonymousreply 479Last Thursday at 4:21 AM

Exactly, R422. If you look at the polling numbers in PA in 2016, Clinton's numbers dropped for a while in June and September, then in October had a slow descent of about three points as Trump increased by six points. The Comey letter plus voter registration shenanigans, plus the margin of error of course, explain the win easily.

More than one person mentioned the polls in PA in October as well as after Election Day, but inevitably that "yard sign" troll would show up and scream at us (with multiple accounts) that we should have been listening to him the whole time instead of polls, which were wrong wrong wrong. Even when the polls agreed with him, he'd scream that they were wrong and he was right. Very sketchy.

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by Anonymousreply 480Last Thursday at 4:23 AM

Exactly, R422. If you look at the polling numbers in PA in 2016, Clinton's numbers dropped for a while in June and September, then in October had a slow descent of about three points as Trump increased by six points. The Comey letter plus voter registration shenanigans, plus the margin of error of course, explain the win easily.

More than one person mentioned the polls in PA in October as well as after Election Day, but inevitably that "yard sign" troll would show up and scream at us (with multiple accounts) that we should have been listening to him the whole time instead of polls, which were wrong wrong wrong. Even when the polls agreed with him, he'd scream that they were wrong and he was right. Very sketchy.

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by Anonymousreply 481Last Thursday at 4:23 AM

Just you wait, Trump's latest tactic of warning homeowners of the doom coming upon them from rampaging dark-skinned people will pull his suburban numbers up out of the gutter!

by Anonymousreply 482Last Thursday at 4:24 AM

It’s not volatile until it is. Things seemed stable in early January, until things suddenly went haywire in March. It’s arrogant and unwise to think a big, sudden impactful event won’t happen within the Next 96 Days. I can’t believe after 2016, some are assured last minute gamE changers won’t occur. We will remind you what you said if they occur.

by Anonymousreply 483Last Thursday at 4:58 AM

Senate Biden hearings September. Barr grand juries October.

by Anonymousreply 484Last Thursday at 5:01 AM

And Hunter Biden indicted

by Anonymousreply 485Last Thursday at 5:02 AM

You think they’re not feverishly trying to fabricate something for October?

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by Anonymousreply 486Last Thursday at 5:05 AM

A sea of Biden accusers attend the debate and dog him on the campaign trail

by Anonymousreply 487Last Thursday at 5:07 AM

Dems need to play dirty. Get those Cheeto assault victims.

by Anonymousreply 488Last Thursday at 5:09 AM

Biden needs to decide if he is gonna play in the gutter with Trump. Trump is gonna try to drag him from every angle, and he has to be respond wisely and strongly. He should be practice sparring every day for the arrows Trump is going to throw at him. No excuse for being unprepared and rusty

by Anonymousreply 489Last Thursday at 5:14 AM

Indictments coming from Barr

by Anonymousreply 490Last Thursday at 5:14 AM

SCOTUS will uphold every voter suppression effort

by Anonymousreply 491Last Thursday at 5:15 AM

Trump is harping on mail-in voting on Twitter. "Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"

If all their voter suppression and intimidation tactics don't work, he and the GOP will frame Joe's win as illegitimate.

by Anonymousreply 492Last Thursday at 5:16 AM

I don’t care how they frame it so long as Joe Biden is sworn in on January 20, 2021.

by Anonymousreply 493Last Thursday at 5:17 AM

So, you don’t believe in volatility?

US President Donald Trump calls to delay 2020 election, citing possible mail-in voting fraud despite little evidence

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 494Last Thursday at 5:24 AM

Trump can't do anything to delay the election without House and Senate approval

Just a tactic. He also claimed 2016 election would be corrupt and unfair

by Anonymousreply 495Last Thursday at 5:26 AM

Can someone help me understand something. Isn't mail in voting the same thing as absentee voting, just with a different name?

by Anonymousreply 496Last Thursday at 5:28 AM

Yes, we know the GOP and Trump are going to pull every dirty trick in the book. There is no bottom to what they will try. They're going to keep throwing shit at Biden and his son in an effort to make something stick. They will go the Benghazi/email route of making them look corrupt by faking investigations and hearings and dancing around possible criminal charges. They're going to keep amping up the racism and xenophobia. They're going to fuck with the mail in voting, even tanking USPS if needed. And of course they will continue with the voter suppression, and fucking with the count. And if they lose they will scream it's illegitimate and men in suits will start riots and run to a packed SCOTUS to try and undo it. We know what they're going to do because they've done it all before.

WE KNOW. That's why it's so frustrating when dumbasses screech about how the polls are wrong when they aren't, and secret Trump supporters when there is zero evidence they exist, and what about Dukakis in 1988 when it's not applicable. Because you fuckheads are only giving the GOP (and the press) cover for these manipulations. You're still falling for the "economic insecurity, he knows how to talk to these people" crap when the actual research tells us over and over again it's the racism, stupid AND that he has completely failed to hold supporters beyond his intractable base. It's all designed to make you sit back and go, wow we were all wrong AGAIN if he manages to pull it off.

by Anonymousreply 497Last Thursday at 5:35 AM

All look for release of all Sorts of leaked and secretly recorded Biden and Democratic material

by Anonymousreply 498Last Thursday at 5:37 AM

Virginia has in person absentee voting, which is essentially early voting.

by Anonymousreply 499Last Thursday at 5:38 AM

[quote]Isn't mail in voting the same thing as absentee voting, just with a different name?

Yes. Trump's just trying to muddy the waters.

by Anonymousreply 500Last Thursday at 5:38 AM

Everyone in the media: "He can't do it. It's impossible. Congress controls. It's impossible."

2016. He won. Anything is possible.

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by Anonymousreply 501Last Thursday at 5:38 AM

It's not complicated Homosexuals

2016:

• Half the country hated Hillary with the heat of ten thousand suns

• Trump the politician was still an unknown

2020:

• No one hates Joe Biden

• Trump the President is very well known and hated with the heat of ten MILLION suns by around 50% of the electorate. A number that seems to only be growing.

by Anonymousreply 502Last Thursday at 5:39 AM

R496, not necessarily. Absentee voting has stricter requirements because you're claiming the right to vote in a state/county you're not actually in at the time. Mail in voting is based on residence.

But in terms of the process, yes, you're mailing in your ballot instead of showing up in person. Apparently, magically, mailing your ballot from within the state you're voting is more susceptible to fraud than mailing it from another state or even country.

by Anonymousreply 503Last Thursday at 5:39 AM

r502 thin splices it - shut out all the other noise

by Anonymousreply 504Last Thursday at 5:42 AM

[quote]That's why it's so frustrating when dumbasses screech about how the polls are wrong when they aren't, and secret Trump supporters when there is zero evidence they exist, and what about Dukakis in 1988 when it's not applicable. Because you fuckheads are only giving the GOP (and the press) cover for these manipulations.

Exactly. And I think that's what they intend to do. Sure, there are some hysterics, but mostly it's trolls setting the stage for excuses in case Trump wins again.

by Anonymousreply 505Last Thursday at 5:59 AM

In Virginia, until this year, you needed an excuse to vote absentee. The excuse could be you work late that day, work far from your polling place, are sick, etc. Now, you don’t have to have an excuse to vote absentee. Again, you can vote in-person absentee weeks before Election Day.

by Anonymousreply 506Last Thursday at 6:01 AM

The trolls and pessimists are going to hate these battleground state polls.

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by Anonymousreply 507Last Thursday at 6:05 AM

R483 Parsing your statement, who the hell is the "we" who must correct "you."

Also, the "delay the election" is just one more layer of the "this election is not legitimate." As his loss gets more and more apparent he's continued to build the case that it's illegitimate. I think it's apparent he will lose, and possible lose by big margins, including the Electoral College. I think the once improbable scenario that he would refuse to leave, is getting more probable.

by Anonymousreply 508Last Thursday at 6:15 AM

I like those polls, except North Carolina. It’s extremely tough to win NC. Trump is desperate to keep it and going all out there, which is why his acceptance speech will be made in Charlotte.

by Anonymousreply 509Last Thursday at 6:18 AM

The people who are dismissing pessimists as trolls, I take it, think "It doesn't help to be negative. Good vibes only. Negativity is self-defeating, bad energy, and a Boris move."

We're pessimistic because we're afraid. We see angles you don't. Maybe we've suffered as you haven't.

by Anonymousreply 510Last Thursday at 6:24 AM

Polls show most Democrats are anxious and negative about the election, whereas Republicans are quite confident

by Anonymousreply 511Last Thursday at 6:26 AM

[quote]Maybe we've suffered as you haven't.

Pics please.

by Anonymousreply 512Last Thursday at 6:27 AM

Tell us about this suffering you've experienced R510.

I have dolls if that will help.

by Anonymousreply 513Last Thursday at 6:27 AM

Weak, R512. Use "pics please TIA!" for things that actually fit with it.

by Anonymousreply 514Last Thursday at 6:28 AM

Herman Cain is DEAD. From COVID. After attending a Trump rally.

by Anonymousreply 515Last Thursday at 6:34 AM

#Pennsylvania Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 50% Trump (R): 41%

Franklin & Marshall / July 26, 2020 / n=667 / MOE 5.5% / Telephone/Online

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 516Last Thursday at 7:25 AM

#Florida Presidential Polling:

Biden (D): 50% Trump (R): 46%

Mason-Dixon / July 23, 2020 / n=625 / MOE 4% / Telephone

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 517Last Thursday at 7:28 AM

Iowa Presidential Averages On July 29:

2004: Kerry +2.5 2008: Obama +10 2012: Obama +4 2016: Trump +1 2020: Trump +1

by Anonymousreply 518Last Thursday at 7:29 AM

R518, how should we interpret that?

by Anonymousreply 519Last Thursday at 7:32 AM

Nate Silver lists no poll whatsoever, going back months, that shows Trump ahead. A majority want a change in leadership. Get out the vote.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 520Last Thursday at 7:37 AM

News from Pittsburgh: Pence's campaign bus was in an accident with a dump trump.

Carry on.

by Anonymousreply 521Last Thursday at 7:57 AM

Not sure, but something has happened in Iowa to transform it from a safe Democratic state to a leans Republican state in such a short amount of time. There must be something about Trumpism that particularly appeals to Iowans. I think the immigration and cultural issues especially resonate there. It may also explain Ohio’s lean toward red now.

by Anonymousreply 522Last Thursday at 8:03 AM

Studies have shown immigration is a huge issue with Iowans

by Anonymousreply 523Last Thursday at 8:04 AM

Decisive issue

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by Anonymousreply 524Last Thursday at 8:05 AM

Iowa so white

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by Anonymousreply 525Last Thursday at 8:07 AM

[quote] Not sure, but something has happened in Iowa to transform it from a safe Democratic state to a leans Republican state in such a short amount of time.

It’s demographics more than Trumpism. Ohio and Iowa are increasingly rural and older. Younger people are leaving. Conversely, states like VA, NC, GA, TX, and AZ are becoming more urban, younger, and bluer.

by Anonymousreply 526Last Thursday at 8:11 AM

[quote] Studies have shown immigration is a huge issue with Iowans

Studied have also shown that the people who are most riled up about immigration are the ones who see its effects the least. Immigration being an issue for Iowans (where there are hardly any immigrants) seems to back that up.

by Anonymousreply 527Last Thursday at 8:13 AM

Sure, but the rapidity of Iowa’s political transformation is noteworthy. Most states take many election cycles to undergo that type of shift

by Anonymousreply 528Last Thursday at 8:28 AM

[quote]• No one hates Joe Biden

Sure, hon.

by Anonymousreply 529Last Thursday at 8:53 AM

Boy, you really got us Nina.

Of course, there are few people as hated as yourself.

by Anonymousreply 530Last Thursday at 8:55 AM

r527 That's not exactly correct. Iowa, being a farm state, has a significant population of Hispanic farm workers, some of whom are migrants and some who stay year round. Rural people (from whom I myself come) view them with contempt. They need the cheap labor but believe they bring crime, property damage, etc., to their communities, and spew all kinds of racist nonsense about them.

Same is true in certain Midwestern towns (for example, Elkhart, IN) where factories and meat packers hire low wage workers and brown-skinned immigrants are among the biggest pool.

by Anonymousreply 531Last Thursday at 9:23 AM

Haven’t a lot of Somalis settled in Iowa?

by Anonymousreply 532Last Thursday at 9:29 AM

^Yes, more in Minnesota. A large number of them work at Wal-Mart and Target and other retail/service places that don't pay well.

by Anonymousreply 533Last Thursday at 9:38 AM

[quote]more in Minnesota. A large number of them work at Wal-Mart and Target and other retail/service places that don't pay well

Actually they work in a variety of fields.

by Anonymousreply 534Last Thursday at 10:00 AM

*NEW HAMPSHIRE*

July 30, 2020

University of New Hampshire poll

Biden +13

Biden (53%)

Trump (40%)

[1,893 Likely Voters, Jul 16-28, 2020]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 535Last Thursday at 3:49 PM

Hillary won New Hampshire by the skin of her teeth. Wasn’t the Trump campaign talking about competing for it this year?

by Anonymousreply 536Last Thursday at 3:56 PM

Yes, R536. The Trump campaign was hoping to put New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada in play in 2020.

But today's new poll from New Hampshire, along with recent polling from Minnesota, shows that Trump may be out of luck in those 2 states. There hasn't been any recent polling for Nevada, but odds are it will be out of reach too when new polling is done.

by Anonymousreply 537Last Thursday at 4:01 PM

😂 Pretty soon Trump will be down to spending all his money in Florida.

by Anonymousreply 538Last Thursday at 4:08 PM

So, how is the Trump money flowing? That's the bigger tell. I've read that the campaign has pulled back spending on ads to rethink its strategy. I'm loving these polls! People don't throw good money towards bad.

by Anonymousreply 539Last Thursday at 4:19 PM

The Trump campaign has always exceled in digital advertising.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 540Last Thursday at 4:23 PM

Thanks for pointing that out, r526.

Since the last census, Ohio has lost around 200k people from what I understand. Most of these people were blue voters, younger, moving to where better paying jobs are.

Remember, Ohio cut way back on Ford plant and lost the Chevy plant near Youngstown. Those were union jobs and voters. Many of them moved to other states or became embittered trumptards.

The Delphi plant near Dayton is also mostly gone if not completely.

People who could get out, did get out. I know ten people, Democrats, who moved to Virginia for jobs in the last ten years. There are thousands more who have left. Many of them Democrats who were fed up with the small town mentality and covert racism. They wanted to move to a larger city and be with people more like them.

My Ohio relatives and friends actually thought I was insane for taking a position at my job that sent me to live overseas for several months. "Why you wanna live with a bunch of furriners who don't speak no English?"

The highlight of their lives was Dollywood and renting a cabin with a hot tub in Gatlinburg. I can't even.

I was (and still am) viewed with suspicion because I'd rather backpack across Italy for two weeks than rent a cabin with them in Gatlinburg.

So, yeah. Most people who could get out of Ohio, Iowa, Kentucky and Indiana have long gone. And more leave as the manufacturing jobs dry up.

by Anonymousreply 541Last Thursday at 6:23 PM

Thanks,R540. I suppose the question is then; How effective are the ads. Speaking only for myself, I see them all over YouTube but I usually just skip over them. I think I may have seen two pro-Trump ads in their entirety. They're really bad or I'm just very jaded.

by Anonymousreply 542Last Thursday at 6:25 PM

R451 and r480 I’m the Pa poster from 2016 that kept talking about yard signs. I’m the one that lives in bucks and worked in New York. I remember there were 3 of us and we all pretty much said the same thing about Pa, yet we were attacked and called Boris etc.

My take on an pure visual level here on the ground is the same as it was this time in 2016. I’ve been starting to see more and more Trump signs - not regular yard signs, but large banners. I’m not seeing a ton, but they are around. Probably the same amount as in 2016. Over the past few days I’ve seen a couple on cars. Not bumper stickers but banners placed on the back of pick ups. I’m not seeing BLM signs as some suggested upthread. None at all. However, im seeing blue lives matter yard signs,which we also had in 2016. Not one Biden sign anywhere.ive als seem “god bless a,America” on a few houses, maybe left over from 4th of July celebrations? I can’t tell. I don’t remember seeing them on 4th of July.

I have to say this is a very different election than 2016, but my personal opinion is - just because it’s different it doesn’t mean that we will get different results.

Here’s why: Hillary and Biden by far have the media behind them. Same as 2016. Nothing new there, however the atmosphere of the past few years has changed drastically. Not just in PA but everywhere. The “shame and blame into submission” tactic - where Democrats shame, insult, and resort to yelling “racist” to anyone who isn’t 100 percent on that side has gotten out of hand. People have resorted to keeping their views to themselves. I do believe, and I’ve said it in a recent Pa thread, that there are a ton of silent trump voters. A ton.

What’s different - the isolation the pandemic has created, combined with censorship. You’ll never get a good representation, even online, of who is supporting trump. We all know on social media comments are deleted, people are banned. So much more nowadays than in 2016. Even forums like TMZ and Yahoo have shut down their comment section. In regular forums, even places like reddit or dL, if you dare go against the narrative, you’re banned, or even more interesting, you see that a thread is no longer bumped with further commenting. As if, a thread that got a lot of participation suddenly dies. Because they don’t want that opinion seen. Get it off the front page so no one sees the opinion.

Someone posted on DL about how you can tell if a forum is being manipulated. It was an interesting read - I see it here on DL especially after reading the article. I’ll try and find the thread. I people are trying to maintain this artificial bubble on he internet - just because you can’t see it, it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

Do you remember in 2016 all the the hill it’s screaming “Boris”and would announce they had blocked the poster. After the election we (us pa posters and a few other rational posters) explained we weren’t shocked by the results because we didn’t live in a bubble. When you block someone with an opposing view you begin to create your bubbleIn 2020 this is on a much larger scale. Tech has created a “Biden” bubble all over the internet. People see this. No one is that stupid. I also don’t believe the polls, the questions are skewed to create and agree with a narrative rather than actually get people’s opinions on things. The polls are also sponsored by media outlets. When you take part in a poll, you are told this and also informed that a reporter may contact you. In this climate with the shame and blame.... no one wants to give their name to a reporter.

My opinion is - Trump will win PA. This is now a pocketbook election. Trump is strong on the economy.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 543Last Thursday at 6:49 PM

I should also add for reference - I’m a small business owner. I’ve been very active over the past couple months with assisting in the re-opening of Bucks County. I’ve held meetings with our state reps, a state senator, and a couple others very high up on a national level. The small business community is a large community made up of democrats, independents and republicans. None I’ve spoken with have confidence in Biden, nor any potential VP that plans to fill his roll in the future. They are also outraged at Tom Wolf. What business owners see in a Biden presidency is higher taxes when things are already down, a slow recovery like 2008 - where it took nearly 10 years, Biden is attached to that. People don’t want to go back to that. Might I remind you that during our slowest recovery during the Obama administration, China was experiencing an economic boom like never before.

Early on in the DL Coronavirus threads from February I’ll never forget the videos we saw coming out of China. Doctors were being silenced for disclosing how serious the virus was. We saw videos of people in body bags, we also commented on how awful China was for censoring and punishing all these doctors. How they censored the internet from their people. How they expected their citizens to turn neighbors in if they heard them coughing, We didn’t want anything to do with communist China and how they treated their people. But wow, they did really scare us with those videos. Ever question if it was all propaganda from China? And now 4 months later, in the US, doctors are being silenced if they dare question and explore possible effective treatments, people who were public anti- maskers suddenly are in the news “dying” of covid. Ever question if his is even more propaganda?

This election isnt Biden vs Trump, we can acknowledge that they are horrible candidates, this election is China vs the USA, and I’m country over party any day of the week.

I know this is a novel, I’ll probably be banned after I post this.

Incidentally, during the democratic primaries after the debates, when people here started turning against Bloomberg and moved towards Biden. I commented that I wasn’t interested in Biden. I was suddenly accused of being a Bernie bro (which I’m not at all) that comment resulted in a 2 month ban of DL.

Yep. The censorship here runs deep.

Hope to see you all here in November, I may be here, or not. Depends on if I’m banned or not.

Much love to my Pa posters here from 2016. You kept me sane here on DL during that time.

by Anonymousreply 544Last Thursday at 6:50 PM

R543 Tech has created a Biden bubble? And so all the polls which show him 8-10 points behind are incorrect?

You're high.

by Anonymousreply 545Last Thursday at 7:00 PM

Holy hell, BREVITY r543/r544.

You aren't being paid by the word here.

by Anonymousreply 546Last Thursday at 7:04 PM

[quote]people who were public anti- maskers suddenly are in the news “dying” of covid. Ever question if his is even more propaganda?

R544, next you'll tell us there's a secret Soros cabal bankrolling the reporting on virus deaths. The virus is a Chinese hoax, etc. People aren't dying from no 'rona, they just randomly go to the hospital and expire.

OK then.

by Anonymousreply 547Last Thursday at 7:33 PM

Here guys. I’m sure you’re aware the virology journal is the official publication of Dr Faucis National Institute of health.

Enjoy the read and formulate your own opinion.

Stay safe - see you in November

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 548Last Thursday at 8:07 PM

And I'm sure R548 is aware that the article is from 2005.

by Anonymousreply 549Last Thursday at 8:16 PM

R543/R544 can't seem to identify reality or truth in much of anything that he discusses and his choppy, fragmented, stream of consciousness data dump begs far too many rebuttals to even bother with opening that can of worms. That said, I know nothing of Bucks County, the significance of “god bless a,America” signs or left over 4th of July celebration junk - so I guess that...ummm...yeah...

by Anonymousreply 550Last Thursday at 10:36 PM

[quote]None I’ve spoken with have confidence in Biden, nor any potential VP that plans to fill his roll in the future.

So, the "people" you have spoken with have confidence in Trump?

So, Biden will lose PA because the "people" there are confident that Trump is good for small business?

So, Biden will lose PA because the "people" there are stupid.

by Anonymousreply 551Last Friday at 1:28 AM

R551, R543/R544 lives in Bucks County, and, in 2016, despite his ominous prognosticating based on the signage he saw "on the ground," Bucks County went for Hillary. Trump won Pennsylvania by a 0.72% margin which is remarkable considering how red much of the state. Bucks County went further blue in 2018, which tells you just how great everyone there thinks Trump is. The economy now, of course, is plunging off of edge of a cliff. I would not write off Pennsylvania based on a few anecdotal remarks.

by Anonymousreply 552Last Friday at 3:56 AM

R552, our Bucks County contributor (who, to be sure, has a lot of sympathy with Republican clichés and talking points) seems to think that Pennsylvanians are blaming the bad economy on the governor rather than on T-Rump.

by Anonymousreply 553Last Friday at 7:06 AM

If only we could go back in time and tell everyone in 2015!

by Anonymousreply 554Last Friday at 9:09 AM

Did you know that Biden beat Trump in the polls of 2015?

by Anonymousreply 555Last Friday at 11:43 AM

Cook Political Report:

July 31, 2020

Six more House rating changes, including five in Democrats' direction:

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 556Last Friday at 3:03 PM

CBS News/YouGov

Biden +1 in GEORGIA.

[July 28-31, 2020, 1,131 Registered Voters in Georgia]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 557Last Sunday at 12:41 PM

CBS News/YouGov

Biden +4 in NORTH CAROLINA

[July 28-31, 2020, 1,152 Registered Voters in North Carolina]

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by Anonymousreply 558Last Sunday at 12:42 PM

NPR

2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes

August 3, 2020

Colorado from lean Democratic to likely Democratic

Florida from toss-up to lean Democratic

New Hampshire from toss-up to lean Democratic

Nevada from toss-up to lean Democratic

Pennsylvania from toss-up to lean Democratic

Georgia from lean Republican to toss-up

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 559Yesterday at 1:20 PM
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