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Joe Biden Maintains 12 Point Lead Over Trump As Seniors Abandon the GOP

[QUOTE] Voters over the age of 65 were far more likely to back Biden, 59% to 38%, giving him a 21 point lead over Trump among seniors as the nation experiences new daily records in Coronavirus infections.

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by Anonymousreply 595July 22, 2020 11:28 PM

Previous thread:

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by Anonymousreply 1July 7, 2020 11:33 AM

So what do you guys think trump will do when he or if he loses? He seems so narcissistic I doubt he’d take it well.

by Anonymousreply 2July 7, 2020 11:47 AM

Go home to Mar A Lago, mope and post on twitter even more often than now.

by Anonymousreply 3July 7, 2020 11:49 AM
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by Anonymousreply 4July 7, 2020 12:06 PM

Probably spend from November to a January attacking Biden.

If there’s a right way and a wrong way, he’s always going to pick the wrong way.

by Anonymousreply 5July 7, 2020 12:58 PM

R4, that as is the modern day version of “I feel your pain.”

by Anonymousreply 6July 7, 2020 12:59 PM

I teared up the first time I watched that ad, R6.

by Anonymousreply 7July 7, 2020 1:46 PM

Democrats are really good at uplifting ads—and politics—and Republicans are really good at ruthless, low blow ads and politics. People who say Democrats should be as ruthless as Republicans miss the point that it’s not their brand. They will never be able to go as low as Republicans. That’s why it’s great to have a Lincoln Project to do it. In the future (hopefully not for a very, very long time), Democrats should keep that model of maintaining a separate but high-profile organization to do their dirty work. They just aren’t good at it.

by Anonymousreply 8July 7, 2020 1:59 PM

^ I did too, r7. I met Biden a few times when he was a Senator—great, friendly guy, with no entourage. Just an average Joe.

by Anonymousreply 9July 7, 2020 2:01 PM

R8, the latest example? Check out this “knife in the back” ad from The Lincoln Project.

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by Anonymousreply 10July 7, 2020 2:03 PM

R10, magnificent!! I hope they have a major ad buy on Fox!

by Anonymousreply 11July 7, 2020 2:47 PM

Wow. Talk about audience of one, but that was lethal.

by Anonymousreply 12July 7, 2020 2:48 PM

I was thinking the same thing r12. This isn't necessarily to sway voters but to get him to lose his temper and say something vile. I hope it works.

by Anonymousreply 13July 7, 2020 2:52 PM

R8 In the "old days", the democratic "machines" in big cities - NY, Chicago, Boston - were ruthless. Perhaps corrupt (Mayor Daley Sr. had dead people voting in Chicago to give the election to JFK). The Clinton group (more Bill than Hill) were famous for going "scotched earth" on opponents.

Traditional/conventional wisdom had the Presidential candidate stay positive and let the VP candidate be attack dog. Certainly in 2016 Tim Kaine was monumentally incapable of that. He tried to attack Trump in the VP debate with Pence, and he just looked foolish.

Obama's brand was "go high"... but in the past Dems have been able to get down in the gutter and fight.

I do think Biden's brand is also "decency" - and I've seen observations about the efficacy of having Joe be "good man Joe" while letting the Lincoln Project do the dirty work. I also question where the Lincoln Project actually plays... does seem their main intent is to troll Trump personally.

by Anonymousreply 14July 7, 2020 2:52 PM

Boomers + Corona

by Anonymousreply 15July 7, 2020 2:53 PM

You know Trump's going to break every norm as an ex-president. He'll be tweeting as a shadow president from Mar-A-Lago and 35% of the voters will see him as the true president. But hey, it'll be normalized and no one will even bother saying ex-president should stay above the fray, etc.

by Anonymousreply 16July 7, 2020 2:53 PM

[quote]I also question where the Lincoln Project actually plays... does seem their main intent is to troll Trump personally.

I know, right?

by Anonymousreply 17July 7, 2020 2:58 PM

R16 If/when Trump loses, you can be assured he'll have plenty of legal problems. His being "on trial" will only exacerbate right wing crackpot violence. Domestic terrorism, etc. It's inevitable I guess. Best thing to happen would be for Trump to lose an historic election, and Biden cut some deal with him to "go back to Mar-a-Lago and eat Big Macs" and then pardon him for his manifold crimes.

by Anonymousreply 18July 7, 2020 3:01 PM

That wouldn't work, R18, as Biden could only pardon him for federal crimes (he's said he won't anyway, I think). Trump will lose his Twitter platform almost instantly, I'd imagine.

by Anonymousreply 19July 7, 2020 3:24 PM

R19 [quote] Trump will lose his Twitter platform almost instantly, I'd imagine.

And this is the problem... he and his cult will go to Parler, or something similar, he'll get on OANN and spew conspiracy BS 24-7, and the crackpot right fascists will further detach from recognizable reality, and get more and more extreme and violent.

Truly, the "Trump problem" doesn't end with his losing this election.

by Anonymousreply 20July 7, 2020 3:56 PM

Democratic senate candidates are raising HUGE amounts of money. That's a big measure of enthusiasm and how things are going to play out in November.

by Anonymousreply 21July 7, 2020 4:37 PM

R20, they're already spewing conspiracy BS 24-7. Even if he were to somehow win they'd be still be doing the same thing. Without Twitter they won't be able to recruit so easily and hopefully his cult will grow out of it or die off.

by Anonymousreply 22July 7, 2020 4:42 PM

Dave Wasserman:

What should really frighten down-ballot Rs: Trump is trailing Biden by 7-9% more than he lost the popular vote in 2016, but because there are so many urban cores where Trump had little room to fall in the first place, the drop is likely even larger in swing suburban districts.

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by Anonymousreply 23July 7, 2020 10:58 PM

Trump will be exiled in Russia to avoid going to jail. He'll be a lap dog for Putin for the rest of his life.

by Anonymousreply 24July 7, 2020 11:49 PM

[QUOTE] Democratic senate candidates are raising HUGE amounts of money. That's a big measure of enthusiasm and how things are going to play out in November.

But it’s only July! 2016!

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by Anonymousreply 25July 8, 2020 12:07 AM

[quote]Trump will be exiled in Russia to avoid going to jail. He'll be a lap dog for Putin for the rest of his life.

Putin will have no further use for Trump once he's out of the White House.

by Anonymousreply 26July 8, 2020 12:18 AM

Seniors abandoning republicans should lead to many sleepless nights. That will crush down ballot republicans. Seniors are pissed at them.

by Anonymousreply 27July 8, 2020 12:26 AM

R26 beat me to it. Outside of recouping some of the millions that he's funneled to Dump for decades (good luck with that), Putin might sooner have them passed away. Whatever he decides, his use for Trumpy will be long over once the Presidency is finished.

by Anonymousreply 28July 8, 2020 12:26 AM

R28 he still has republicans.

by Anonymousreply 29July 8, 2020 12:30 AM

The election is still too early.

Carter was comfortably ahead of Reagan and lost by a landslide.

The economy will decide this race and nothing else. And if Biden can't make people feel better about that, he won't win.

by Anonymousreply 30July 8, 2020 12:34 AM

R30 this is not 1980 and he is no Reagan.

by Anonymousreply 31July 8, 2020 12:35 AM

Thanks, Poll Troll. I’ve mentioned this several times—maybe even in a previous response to you—but Philadelphia is a great example of this. In 2016, two out of the five counties in the urban core area were Democratic (Philadelphia was one of the two). Over the last few years, all five turned Democratic. If this is being mirrored in other urban areas, Trump—and Republican candidates—are in deep trouble. I know lots of things can happen, but to me, that pretty much depends on Trump becoming a different person, and we know that’s not going to happen.

by Anonymousreply 32July 8, 2020 12:39 AM

[quote]Obama's brand was "go high"... but in the past Dems have been able to get down in the gutter and fight.

To be fair, Obama's opponents were John McCain and Mitt Romney, who were both generally decent and respectable people...regardless of what you thought of their politics. Getting down in the gutter wouldn’t have worked for Obama against those two.

by Anonymousreply 33July 8, 2020 12:41 AM

R30- Carter, like Trump, was the incumbent. In both 1980 and now 2020, the voters want change. That’s why Reagan won and why Biden will win too.

by Anonymousreply 34July 8, 2020 12:50 AM

Biden CANNOT pardon Trump. It is ESSENTIAL that not only must Democrats regain control of as much of the government as possible, but also reclaim that very rarely heard commodity these days : THE TRUTH. Trump and his allies- Certain members of the Republican Congress, Russian bots on the Internet, Q-Anon and other insane Conspiracy groups, Fox " News" propaganda, outright Hypocritical Evangelical " Christianists", and a 100 other tools of deception this Administration has skillfully used to it's advantage must be rooted out at their source and be shown for the utter rot that they are. And Trump along with them. And here's why: we have a 1/3 of our population programmed like damned lemmings be it from weak intellect or desperation and if they are not disillusioned of their cult-like masters, we face a very real threat of some future political element, hijacking the " Fake News" propaganda machine for their own. Trump must be exposed for the Sociopathic, narcissistic, lying bastard that he is, because nothing less than utter defeat and a reappropriation of our society similar to post WWII Germany will suffice.

by Anonymousreply 35July 8, 2020 1:04 AM

R32, it's the opposite here Western PA. The Lehigh Valley area will decide PA.

by Anonymousreply 36July 8, 2020 1:05 AM

[QUOTE] In Florida in 2016, J.C. Planas, a former Republican state representative, was uncomfortable with Hillary Clinton but detested Donald Trump, so he wrote in former Gov. Jeb Bush for president.

[QUOTE]In New Hampshire that year, Peter J. Spaulding, a longtime Republican official, supported the Libertarian ticket.

[QUOTE]And in Arizona, Lorena Burns, 56, also voted third party, seeing the choice between Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton as a contest between “two bads.”

[QUOTE]“I didn’t want to be responsible for either,” she said.

[QUOTE]This year, all three of them intend to diverge from their Republican leanings and vote for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee. They are among an emerging group of voters who disliked both major-party presidential nominees in 2016, but who are now so disillusioned with President Trump — and sufficiently comfortable with Mr. Biden — that they are increasingly willing to support the Democrat.

[QUOTE]It’s a dynamic that could have significant implications in several of the most competitive battleground states, like Arizona and Wisconsin, where the third-party vote in 2016 was greater than the margin of difference between Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. Recent polling also shows that Mr. Biden has an overwhelming advantage over Mr. Trump among voters who have unfavorable views of both candidates — a cohort that ultimately broke in Mr. Trump’s favor in 2016, exit polls showed.

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by Anonymousreply 37July 8, 2020 1:10 AM

[quote]Trump will be exiled in Russia to avoid going to jail.

He can have my old apartment!

by Anonymousreply 38July 8, 2020 1:10 AM

R36, I disagree. The Lehigh Valley is the same—not stronger or different in makeup. Btw it’s not in Western PA, it’s north of Philadelphia by about an hour or so, so I don’t know what you’re referring to.

Urban Philadelphia area voters made PA blue for many years. When they didn’t vote Democratic in 2016, it turned PA red. They’re back to blue. By a LOT.

by Anonymousreply 39July 8, 2020 1:11 AM

R39, I know where Lehigh is. I'm in Western Pa.

by Anonymousreply 40July 8, 2020 1:23 AM

And r39 it's not the same. Lehigh county is bluer but Berks county leans Republican now.

by Anonymousreply 41July 8, 2020 1:25 AM

[quote] The economy will decide this race and nothing else.

You are absolutely looney.

by Anonymousreply 42July 8, 2020 1:27 AM

Ok... so it’s a wash? Lehigh and Berks have similar populations, Berks maybe a bit more. Maybe Poll Troll can give us better info. In any case, urban and suburban Philadelphia will decide the election, helped by a healthy turnout in Pittsburgh.

by Anonymousreply 43July 8, 2020 1:30 AM

Internal polls have been dire for republicans.

by Anonymousreply 44July 8, 2020 1:39 AM

Actually, r43, western PA is getting redder. And while Berk and Lehigh are a wash, it will e that other Lehigh Valley county, Northumberland, that will decide it and right now it's slightly leaning blue.

And while PollTroll is great with polls, what we learned from 2016 is that people on DL who lived in PA had a better read on what was happening on the ground.

by Anonymousreply 45July 8, 2020 1:41 AM

Trump has had zero strategy other than attacking Obama and the Dems and boasting of his imaginary accomplishments. Might work when times are generally good but when the rubber meets the road as is happening now it’s painfully obvious that he’s just a common conman and fraud.

by Anonymousreply 46July 8, 2020 1:43 AM

Trump hasn't presented any sort of a plan for what he would try to accomplish during a second term. In light of the events of 2020, "Keep America Great!" is really not a compelling argument for giving him another four years.

by Anonymousreply 47July 8, 2020 1:47 AM

[quote] To be fair, Obama's opponents were John McCain and Mitt Romney, who were both generally decent and respectable people

I beg to differ

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by Anonymousreply 48July 8, 2020 1:54 AM

Sorry I'm late to the party, but I just saw R10's video and wow, that was Shakespearean. Is the Lincoln Project's head of the writers' room Iago?

by Anonymousreply 49July 8, 2020 2:09 AM

The problem in the long haul will be how to unite a deeply divided country. 30% of Americans are nuts. You can't reason with these morons. They are a lost cause. It will take more than one 2 term democratic president to fix all that's wrong with America.

by Anonymousreply 50July 8, 2020 8:08 AM

[quote]But it’s only July! 2016!

And July in 2016 is when things started to look concerning for HRC. Trump was getting positive press after the Republican primary, while the Democrats were mired in negotiations with Sanders to get him to finally commit to beating Trump instead of attacking Dems. HRC chose Kaine in July as well and it wasn't met with enthusiasm. Comey went on TV the first time in July of 2016 and excoriated HRC while begrudgingly admitting there was nothing to charge her with.

Internationally, Marine Le Pen was getting a lot of positive publicity (even here in the States, via outlets like Politico) and the Brexit vote in the UK had been at the end of June. Fascists were getting a lot of mileage out of a series of attacks in Germany in 2016, as well. Far-right and fascist politics were becoming accepted and July 2016 was a big touchstone for that.

And we now know that the Russian interference really began in earnest in July of 2016.

Just a friendly reminder that we're entering dangerous territory this month, and we should all remember the lessons we learned from the 2016 election.

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by Anonymousreply 51July 8, 2020 8:30 AM

Don’t be fooled.

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by Anonymousreply 52July 8, 2020 8:36 AM

**MAINE**

July poll from Public Policy Polling

PRESIDENT

Biden (53%)

Trump (42%)

*

SENATE

Sara Gideon (D) 46%

Susan Collins (R) 42%

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by Anonymousreply 53July 8, 2020 11:03 AM

Parler doesn’t let them “own the libs”, cause they aren’t there. And that’s really the only joy they get. And freedom of expression, which they are SO CONCERNED WITH, is apparently more regulated than on Twitter. #winning

It won’t get better for poor, sad Trumpers.

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by Anonymousreply 54July 8, 2020 11:32 AM

Also, most Deplorables are both stupid and lazy. If it isn't easy, familiar or really obvious, they won't do it. They aren't going to be bouncing around multiple services.

by Anonymousreply 55July 8, 2020 11:49 AM

"30% of Americans are nuts."

I heard a poll on NPR the other day that says 82% of Republicans think Trump is doing an excellent job.

That is truly frightening.

by Anonymousreply 56July 8, 2020 12:08 PM

R56, I know we’ve said this before, but the moderates have left the Republican Party for now. That’s why Republicans up for election/re-election will have a hard time of it in November. They have to kowtow to Dump, because their base is all in for him. But it’s not enough.

I would love to see some numbers that show the breakdown of Republicans vs Democrats across the country, and how that makeup has changed, but the fact that Biden is up double digits is a good indicator for now.

by Anonymousreply 57July 8, 2020 12:55 PM

[QUOTE] And July in 2016 is when things started to look concerning for HRC.

[QUOTE] Just a friendly reminder that we're entering dangerous territory this month, and we should all remember the lessons we learned from the 2016 election.

R51 we’ve already entered the second week of July. Are things starting to “look concerning” for Joe Biden? What the hell does Joe have to do with Hillary? We’ve had 58 presidential campaigns in America and for some reason everything comes down to Hillary and 2016 with you people.

by Anonymousreply 58July 8, 2020 1:53 PM

Moderates in BOTH parties are fed the fuck up and are going to take out the trash in the White House in November, R57.

by Anonymousreply 59July 8, 2020 2:11 PM

If/When Joe Biden is declared the winner in November, that's when I will relax and if that makes me an Eeyore then so be it.

by Anonymousreply 60July 8, 2020 2:19 PM

They talked about a hell of a lot more than Hillary, R58. What's with your crabby attitude and "you people" bullshit? It's a perfectly good idea to remind everyone of how shit started going wrong in the summer during the 2016 elections, and how election interference, the FBI and the rise of fascism caused a lot of the problems we're dealing with now.

by Anonymousreply 61July 8, 2020 2:28 PM

R60

No, you do not get to relax. The damage is already done from Trump, PLUS stupid Americans will forget about this and get complacent and the GOP will take power again very soon. The US gives the GOP way too much of a pass for all of their shit.

by Anonymousreply 62July 8, 2020 2:33 PM

That's way harsh, R62.

by Anonymousreply 63July 8, 2020 2:37 PM

R59 There are no moderates left in the Republican Party. They left. You cannot be a moderate and support things this prez has done and everyone of those elected republicans have supported 99% of what he has done.

I, too, am sick of republicans getting a free pass in the press. The minute Dems go even a little left they scream about extremism and moderate voters follow suit. But republicans can always go hard right without nary a peep.

by Anonymousreply 64July 8, 2020 3:34 PM

Cook Political Report is shifting its ratings of the key states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”. Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district is also moved to “Lean Democrat” and Georgia is now a considered a “Tossup” state.

These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279).

by Anonymousreply 65July 8, 2020 3:43 PM

[quote] It will take more than one 2 term democratic president to fix all that's wrong with America.

It would be a good start, though.

by Anonymousreply 66July 8, 2020 3:56 PM

R56 I remember a poll that said 30% believe the earth is flat (a poll since discredited) but there are still Americans who don't think earth is a planet. 15% of Americans don't believe in climate change (of all countries in the world, only Indonesia and Saudi Arabia have higher numbers of deniers).

R64 The old alignments are shaken up. Trump is a hallmark of the upheaval (though he is symptom of the shifting, not sole cause - he exacerbated the depth and accelerated the pace of the shifts). Nicolle Wallace and Michael Steele are leading "centrist" voices now. In the NYT this morning, George Will just endorsed Karen Bass for Biden's VP. Think if you had read that headline 6-7 years ago, "Will endorses Bass for VP". Unthinkable.

2024 is going to be interesting to see where all this upheaval of the normal political landscape leads us.

by Anonymousreply 67July 8, 2020 3:57 PM

R67 I don’t think there is an upheaval. What he exposed was that the Republican Party was completely devoid or should I say over reliant on platitudes and grand themes with little policy. It was more of a cult of thinking than it was a cult of actual policymaking. People like Nicole Wallace and Michael Steele just shifted the way they thought about politics meaning they realized they were too extreme in the way they fought Dems not in how different they were from them. Nicolle was always a centrist. Michael likely is, too. I think many realized the Republican Party had no true core principles except always trying to paint the Democrats as the other. I think they realize that was extremely toxic for our country and many have realized Democrats actually have better policies and politics. I hope that wasn’t word salad. Lol

by Anonymousreply 68July 8, 2020 4:06 PM

R67, don't forget that 40% of Trump supporters agreed that Hillary Clinton was a literal demon raised up from hell.

by Anonymousreply 69July 8, 2020 4:09 PM

[quote]I heard a poll on NPR the other day that says 82% of Republicans think Trump is doing an excellent job.

We think he's tremendous!

by Anonymousreply 70July 8, 2020 4:10 PM

This is Republican outlet The Hill's insight where things stand in those key areas. Can't post link.

Bellwether counties show trouble for Trump There is no single bellwether for American elections… but here are a half dozen counties that underscore Donald Trump's weaknesses.

Rural Wisconsin, Richland and Juneau counties

Richland and Juneau were two of the 208 counties around the country that switched from Obama to Trump. Trump’s slim 2016 Wisconsin victory, the Milwaukee Journal's Craig Gilbert calculated, was fueled by a "seismic shift" in blue collar, rural areas; Trump’s margins were almost three times bigger than George W. Bush.

ADVERTISEMENT This time around, the farm sector may spell trouble for the president. Just as he was celebrating his "great" trade deal where China would buy more Wisconsin agricultural products, COVID-19 hit, and China became Trump's top enemy. In farm spots like Richland, farmers are struggling. Juneau, which switched from an Obama win by 7 percent to a 26 percent Trump victory, has voted for every winning president for half a century.

“For Trump to win Wisconsin he has to win Juneau and probably Richland,” Ben Wikler, the energetic state Democratic chair, told me last week. That appears uphill.

Erie County, Pennsylvania

This union-friendly county in the northwest corner of the state twice voted for Barack Obama and then flipped to Trump. That was the first time a Republican presidential candidate carried Erie since Ronald Reagan.

It's largely white, middle- and working-class and skews older. Across Pennsylvania, if each candidate’s hold serves — Biden running up big margins in the populous Philadelphia suburbs and big cities, and Trump capturing the central part of the state and the former coal and steel strongholds in Western Pennsylvania — a large county like Erie will be critical.

Pennsylvania is a must-win for Biden, and it looks promising. Tom Ridge, a former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, Congressman and two-term Republican governor who lives Erie, told me his county is competitive, but Democrats are stronger than last time: “Biden aligns with the people here much better than (Hillary) did, and there's anxiety over COVID-19, social unrest and the economy; Trump hasn't addressed these very well.”

by Anonymousreply 71July 8, 2020 4:15 PM

Robeson County, North Carolina

Robeson is only the 22nd largest county in the Tar Heel state, one of the poorest, and politically dwarfed by the likes of Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Wake (Raleigh and Cary). After voting decisively for Obama twice, it went for Trump in 2016, the first time a Republican carried it in four decades; even Ronald Reagan lost Robeson.

Like thousands of counties across America, it's unique. It's about one-third white, a little less than one-third African American and Latin, and more than one-third Native American, the Lumbee tribe. On economic and health care issues these hard-pressed voters tilt left, but on cultural issues they — including the native Americans — are very conservative.

Hillary Clinton, Democrats say, not only was on the wrong side of the cultural issues — as was Obama — but was seen as an elitist. Democrat Dan McCready, an entrepreneur and Marine combat veteran, carried Robeson twice while losing two cliff-hanger House races. The county has moved more Republican in the last decade, he told me, but suspects Biden won't come across so culturally challenged: McCready predicted “Biden could do five or ten points better than Clinton.” In 2016 Trump carried Robeson by a little over four points.

Tom and Newt's neighborhoods: Gwinnett County, Georgia and Fort Bend County, Texas

In the 1990s the two dominant Republicans were the bomb throwing House Speaker Newt Gingrich and House Whip Tom “the Hammer” Delay. Gingrich's Georgia district included Gwinnett County, north of Atlanta; Delay represented his home county, Fort Bend, Texas, neighboring Houston.

Today they're barely recognizable to any aging Delay or Gingrich groupies. Upscale, with exceptional racial diversity — and Democratic blue. Gwinnett, the second most populous county in Georgia, voted 65 percent for George W. Bush as recently as 2004. Hillary Clinton won with a little over 50 percent in the last presidential race, and Democrat Stacey Abrams, an African-American, won 56 percent in the governor's race two years ago.

This is mirrored in Fort Bend County, Texas, which also voted overwhelmingly for George W. Bush and “the Hammer” in 2004. Today, the 10th largest and wealthiest county in Texas, a majority of its citizens are minorities. Clinton won a majority in 2016, and so did Beto O'Rourke in a Senate race two years later.

For all the political conversation about the Latino and African American vote, the growth in both these counties has been fueled by a surge in Asian Americans: one in eight Gwinnett citizens, and one in six in Fort Bend. Though not monolithic, this is the fastest growing bloc in the country, will comprise an estimated 5 percent of the November electorate and Trump's anti-Asian slurs will likely only accelerate the trend to Democrats.

These two counties will give Biden a big edge; the issue is how big. If he wins both by 60 percent, he'll carry Georgia and has a shot in Texas.

by Anonymousreply 72July 8, 2020 4:15 PM

Republicans and centrists suck. MLK even had a quote stating how dangerous centrists/moderates are.

by Anonymousreply 73July 8, 2020 4:17 PM

[R73] Stalin thought that too, and so did Hitler.

by Anonymousreply 74July 8, 2020 4:19 PM

R73 Stop the moderate bashing. We need moderates. That seems curiously......divisive. Hmmmmm

by Anonymousreply 75July 8, 2020 4:26 PM

R75

I’m thinking past Trumpism. These right-leaning centrists/moderates are going to fall right back in line with the GOP.

Also many of these people are voting R down ballot. What good is that for us?

by Anonymousreply 76July 8, 2020 4:33 PM

Most of the maps at 270 to Win now put Pennsylvania in "leans Democrat" which would put Biden at 268 electoral votes. If Biden does have Pennsylvania, he would only need one of the following states to win: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona or Wisconsin. Biden is polling ahead of Trump in all of those states, most by double digits.

They have only path to victory for Trump. He would need to win ALL of the following: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nebraska-2. Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are not solidly red either.

by Anonymousreply 77July 8, 2020 4:41 PM

R76 some are but a lot say they are voting out all republicans this time and beyond if trumpism isn’t killed. This applies to George Will, Rick Wilson, Steve Scmidt and others. Nicolle Wallace said she’s not voting for a republican ever again.

by Anonymousreply 78July 8, 2020 4:44 PM

RASMUSSEN - Biden leads Trump by 10 points

Wednesday, July 08, 2020

Biden (50%)

Trump (40%)

[The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted July 5-7, 2020].

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by Anonymousreply 79July 8, 2020 7:11 PM

Rasmussen is Trump's favorite pollster because they have a strong Republican lean, so for them to show Biden leading by 10 points is telling.

With the Coronavirus surging in AZ, FL and TX right now, I don't see how Trump wins. I have a feeling that Texas won't be called until the next day.

by Anonymousreply 80July 8, 2020 7:49 PM

I wonder if the Deplorables will have a Penis Hat march to mirror the Pussy Hat march that greeted Trump.

It would certainly confirm that they are a bunch of dick heads....

by Anonymousreply 81July 8, 2020 7:52 PM

Ee will keep some of the Republican defectors. Once they've come over, seen we're not as horrible as FUX has been telling them, that we want what's best for ALL of America, to make it a stronger nation, I firmly believe some will stay for good.

Trump has been terrible for the Republican party AND good for the Democratic party.

by Anonymousreply 82July 8, 2020 8:16 PM

I am as progressive as anyone but progressives have got to understand that there are so many areas or actually the whole country has been conditioned to believe the business line of what’s good for business is good for everyone. We’ve been brainwashed to believe government is bad and business is good. To win back the argument will not succeed if we go balls to the wall left. As hard as it is there will be many things that we will have to do incrementally or in moderation. We’ve got to look at the long game. That’s how Republicans have been successful. If we don’t get good left of center judges in, none of what Congress passes that is progressive will be put into law because it will be struck down by conservative judges. That’s the ball game.

by Anonymousreply 83July 8, 2020 8:27 PM

R30 is an idiot. As is anyone who thinks Erie County is going to decide the election.

by Anonymousreply 84July 8, 2020 8:31 PM

With our luck Joe will die or have a stroke/seizure before the election and Trump will win.

by Anonymousreply 85July 8, 2020 8:33 PM

[QUOTE] With our luck Joe will die or have a stroke/seizure before the election and Trump will win.

Is that right, comrade? How’s the weather in Moscow?

by Anonymousreply 86July 8, 2020 8:41 PM

Come on R86, Boris signed his post "Democrat"

How could you not be fooled?

by Anonymousreply 87July 8, 2020 8:49 PM

At this point, I believe people are voting for Dump out of spite. Since he hasn’t done doodly squat.

by Anonymousreply 88July 8, 2020 9:22 PM

R87 I’m sure a lifelong Democrat.

by Anonymousreply 89July 8, 2020 9:24 PM

R85 A corpse can beat Trump.

by Anonymousreply 90July 8, 2020 9:53 PM

[quote]We’ve been brainwashed to believe government is bad and business is good.

I think this is less true of the younger generations. I came of age in the Reagan years and this had just become a default position, for many Democrats, unfortunately, as well as others—decades of Democratic policy and talking points seemed to be on the defensive about this. And yet Bush's presidency foundered as soon as he announced plans to do away with Social Security, and in the 15 years since—especially the last 3-4 years of Trump's dumpster fire—the tide has turned and "what's good for business" isn't the touchstone it was.

by Anonymousreply 91July 8, 2020 10:55 PM

[quote]It's a perfectly good idea to remind everyone of how shit started going wrong in the summer during the 2016 elections, and how election interference, the FBI and the rise of fascism caused a lot of the problems we're dealing with now.

A big part of what went wrong was enormous asshole Bernie Sanders continuing to campaign for himself and continuing to trash the Democratic nominee until November 2016. He needs to die ASAP.

by Anonymousreply 92July 8, 2020 11:55 PM

I can be wrong but here is what I believe and think will be much more helpful to Biden;

The internet is not as powerful.

Unlike 2016, which doesn't seem that long ago but light years ago re technology, people are no longer triggered by material that is pushed to them over the internet. People have learned to distinguish between what is real vs fake, or simply ignore it. This is why (I believe) the Trump campaign's "Joe Is Incompetent" campaign isn't working.

by Anonymousreply 93July 9, 2020 12:20 AM

quote] This is why (I believe) the Trump campaign's "Joe Is Incompetent" campaign isn't working.

Perhaps that campaign died from an overdose of irony.

by Anonymousreply 94July 9, 2020 12:24 AM

He tried to kill them.

Seniors like presidents who don't try to kill them.

They can (sometimes) recall the 36 years Biden spent in the US Senate and the eight years he spent in the White House with President Obama, not trying to kill them.

by Anonymousreply 95July 9, 2020 12:30 AM

D Data from a Hill-HarrisX poll released Wednesday indicated that if the presidential election were held today, 10 percent of registered Democrats would vote for President Donald Trump.

Biden's projected advantage over Trump shrank since the same question was asked by poll takers in June. At that time, only 7 percent of Democrats said they would cast their ballots for Trump.

According to the poll, which was conducted July 3-4, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a 4-point lead over Trump overall. That number represents a slide for Biden, who held a 10-point lead over Trump in June.

In total, 43 percent of all registered voters would cast their ballots for Biden while 39 percent would vote for President Trump. Undecided voters accounted for 8 percent of the final numbers. Individuals who said they would not vote in the 2020 election made up 5 percent, as did voters who said they would rather vote for someone besides Trump or Biden.

Biden has traditionally polled well with older voters, but this month's survey found Trump and Biden neck and neck with voters between the ages of 50-64. Biden and Trump each garnered 42 percentage points within that demographic.

The poll holds a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent and was weighted for factors including age within gender, political party, and income.

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by Anonymousreply 96July 9, 2020 2:36 AM

#creepytrump

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by Anonymousreply 97July 9, 2020 2:55 AM

That’s how you do political ads

by Anonymousreply 98July 9, 2020 3:05 AM

If that's a Harris poll at R96, they're a C rated pollster with almost a 1.3 point Republican lean.

by Anonymousreply 99July 9, 2020 3:06 AM

R96 3 points is within the margin of error. There's no trend there. You need three data points to identify a trend anyway...

by Anonymousreply 100July 9, 2020 3:06 AM

This is for R57, from Gallup: "As of April 2020, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 30% identified as Republican, and 36% as Independent."

In other words, the fact that 82% of Republicans support Trump doesn't really translate to a lot of people.

by Anonymousreply 101July 9, 2020 3:22 AM

Meanwhile, the NYT/Siena poll today shows that Biden is not having any problems on his left flank. He is winning over almost all the Sanders & Warren supporters.

Nate Cohn:

Biden emerges from a contested Democratic primary with no serious threat on his left flank, according to Times/Siena polling in the battlegrounds.

Sanders supporters back him 87-4

Warren supporters back him 96-0

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by Anonymousreply 102July 9, 2020 3:24 AM

Joe Biden’s new “Buy American” economic plan is exactly what I want from him right now. Instead of resting on his laurels, he’s attacking the one area where Trump still has a smidgen of an advantage: the economy. Dem ad makers need to get to work on making sure Americans hear all about it.

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by Anonymousreply 103July 9, 2020 2:49 PM

WOW, things are really bad for 45. Even Alaska is now within margin of error. Biden vs. Trump Public Policy 7/09/2020 1,081 RV ±3% Biden 45.0% Trump 48.0%

by Anonymousreply 104July 9, 2020 3:09 PM

PPP is a very liberal pollster

by Anonymousreply 105July 9, 2020 3:12 PM

Yeah, Trump won Alaska by 15+ and now he's only up 3.

by Anonymousreply 106July 9, 2020 3:13 PM

In the same way that many voters in 2016 walked into the booth and thought "fuck that bitch, it's not like she's going to lose without my vote" there will be many voters in 2020 who walk in and think "fuck voting for four more years of crazy, Biden's a nice enough guy."

by Anonymousreply 107July 9, 2020 3:15 PM

R103, I'm scanning that article and like what I see. Flubs aside he's turning out to be a better campaigner than I thought he'd be.

by Anonymousreply 108July 9, 2020 3:17 PM

Wow, the GOP can't even retain it's key demographic now? HAHAHA.

by Anonymousreply 109July 9, 2020 3:49 PM

R105, they lean Dem +0.3, hardly "very liberal".

by Anonymousreply 110July 9, 2020 3:55 PM

A part of me wants Republicans to be dealt with the same way the Nazis were after WW2.

by Anonymousreply 111July 9, 2020 4:17 PM

New Republic says they are liberal

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by Anonymousreply 112July 9, 2020 4:21 PM

That article is pretty out of date at this point.

by Anonymousreply 113July 9, 2020 4:45 PM
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by Anonymousreply 114July 9, 2020 5:55 PM

LOL! Chuck Todd;

"This is like a 5 alarm political fire what the President is looking at now."

by Anonymousreply 115July 9, 2020 6:12 PM

Yes, that TNR piece at R112 is from 2013

by Anonymousreply 116July 9, 2020 7:02 PM

FYI, Biden is speaking on CNN right now. Speaking about a trumps broken promises.

by Anonymousreply 117July 9, 2020 7:11 PM

Sorry, Trump’s, not a Trump.

My autocorrect is putting “a” in front of a lot of names and I don’t always catch them before I post. Sorry.

by Anonymousreply 118July 9, 2020 7:14 PM

Buy American 😎

by Anonymousreply 119July 9, 2020 7:29 PM

[quote]FYI, Biden is speaking on CNN right now.

YES! YES! YES, JOE!!!!

If Biden's very first objective is to pass a major infrastructure plan (followed closely by fixing ObamaCare) he makes MAJOR history!

by Anonymousreply 120July 9, 2020 7:41 PM

Joe also released his housing plan. It is very forward-thinking. Not far-enough for the Bernie Bros I'm sure, but it's great.

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by Anonymousreply 121July 9, 2020 7:49 PM

Joe looked great today. God let me have even half his strength and energy when I’m his age. This old warrior is being sent to battle to take this country back. He was born for this moment.

by Anonymousreply 122July 9, 2020 8:03 PM

Good ads already up and running.

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by Anonymousreply 123July 9, 2020 8:14 PM

Beautiful ad, R123

The Democrats in Congress should make themselves useful and start defining the Republican party as nothing more than a group of racists and murderers.

I think the people, The Lincoln Project, and JOE BIDEN, got this over here!!!

by Anonymousreply 124July 9, 2020 8:24 PM

Harry Enten:

[quote]The polls are pretty clear here... Trump's handling of coronavirus is the only election issue that matters. We have a pandemic going on & cases have been rising... If Biden is more trusted on coronavirus come E-Day (as he is now), Trump is a one term prez.

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by Anonymousreply 125July 9, 2020 8:58 PM

That’s why he hates this ad so much:

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by Anonymousreply 126July 9, 2020 9:01 PM

They aren't the most accurate pollster thought r110, 538 only gives them a B.

But regardless, the poll is in line with what we know about the race. Biden is up by a lot.

by Anonymousreply 127July 9, 2020 10:25 PM

So, what was this? A "Hail Mary?"

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by Anonymousreply 128July 10, 2020 12:09 AM

Talk about a nothingburger, r128...

by Anonymousreply 129July 10, 2020 12:15 AM

Goya

by Anonymousreply 130July 10, 2020 12:56 AM

It has to be good.

by Anonymousreply 131July 10, 2020 1:45 AM

Anyone care to break down this article I just saw on Facebook?

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by Anonymousreply 132July 10, 2020 2:11 AM

[QUOTE] This time, Norpoth believes Trump will win by a much wider margin: 362 electoral votes to 176.

Does it really need an explanation?

by Anonymousreply 133July 10, 2020 2:17 AM

R128 Un pase 'Hail Mary'.... pero yo conozco a Tom Flutie, y este pendejo no es el....

by Anonymousreply 134July 10, 2020 2:25 AM

There was another professor who predicted Trump's 2016 victory, from American University. He said in May that Trump's in trouble.

Battle of the professors!

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by Anonymousreply 135July 10, 2020 2:29 AM

What does the professor from Gilligan's Island predict?

by Anonymousreply 136July 10, 2020 2:32 AM

Looking good but still somewhat early. No slacking.

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by Anonymousreply 137July 10, 2020 2:35 AM

CHEATING is the only way Trump won the first time and CHEATING is has been the winning factor when it comes to most wins for the corrupt swamp that is the GOP in the last 40 years or so. That said, cheating is a funny thing in the "free" world - you can only steal an election and also avoid the inevitable revolution and civil war that will follow IF the margins are close enough that the win is difficult to contest. 2016 was screwy enough for most people. At this point, a Trump win means civil war. Period. And whatever the case, the electoral college is about to be dismantled for good as should have been a century ago.

by Anonymousreply 138July 10, 2020 2:38 AM

[quote] This time, Norpoth believes Trump will win by a much wider margin: 362 electoral votes to 176.

He’s delusional. There is simply no way that’s going to happen. It’s entirely possible for Trump to win, but not with anything close to that number of EVs.

by Anonymousreply 139July 10, 2020 2:49 AM

[quote]Joe also released his housing plan. It is very forward-thinking. Not far-enough for the Bernie Bros I'm sure, but it's great.

Bernie himself just said yesterday on Twitter that he was thrilled with Biden's platform. Of course the Bros may not listen to him.

by Anonymousreply 140July 10, 2020 3:40 AM

[quote]Anyone care to break down this article I just saw on Facebook?

The fact that you saw it on Facebook tells me everything I need to know about it. Nothing on Facebook is trustworthy. Your first assumption should be that it's Russian propaganda.

by Anonymousreply 141July 10, 2020 3:43 AM

If you haven't seen this... WATCH! It's fun!

Sing and dance along with Michelle and Barack Obama from now until that big, beautiful Blue Wave crests on November 3rd, ushering in a new era of love, peace and prosperity! Yes, it IS possible if we come together and support Joe Biden and others who stand for truth and justice. VOTE — and thank you in advance for the landslide.

Huge gratitude to Earth Wind & Fire, and to “September” songwriters Maurice White, Al McKay and Allee Willis. Just… WOW.

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by Anonymousreply 142July 10, 2020 3:54 AM

Last known photo of Professor Norpoth and his flying predictions.

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by Anonymousreply 143July 10, 2020 8:10 AM

New poll today from ABC News/Ipsos finds nearly 6 in 10 Americans believe the push to reopen the economy is moving too quickly:

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by Anonymousreply 144July 10, 2020 10:54 AM

[quote][R51] we’ve already entered the second week of July. Are things starting to “look concerning” for Joe Biden? What the hell does Joe have to do with Hillary? We’ve had 58 presidential campaigns in America and for some reason everything comes down to Hillary and 2016 with you people.

What the fuck? I was talking about a whole host of things that happened in July 2016 that started to show that the election wasn't going to go smoothly to the Dem candidate, who happened to be HRC. That's the only reason she was mentioned in r51.

It was a cautionary post, not to get too comfortable, to remember the shit the GOP and Russia pulled, all of which really ramped up in July. Very similar tactics can be used against any Dem candidate, including Biden. You think they can't?

So tired of people deliberately misunderstanding what's been said because they're desperate to be a cunt to someone.

by Anonymousreply 145July 10, 2020 11:07 AM

From r142: "Reunite the USA"

Catchy slogan and great response to the self-aggrandizing "MAGA".

by Anonymousreply 146July 10, 2020 11:09 AM

R138, I agree and I think we're seeing the GOP quietly back off of their support for Trump (and perhaps ask their puppets Kavanaugh and Gorsuch to rule against Trump on the tax return issue) because they know they can't fudge the numbers this time.

by Anonymousreply 147July 10, 2020 11:16 AM

Trump cancelled New Hampshire rally citing "expected storms" in the area. He was just twitter-bragging about the anticipated crowd size at this one tomorrow. LOL.

by Anonymousreply 148July 10, 2020 4:30 PM

Nobody is going to get complacent. I don’t care if Biden has a 99 point lead.

by Anonymousreply 149July 10, 2020 4:31 PM

Damn R148-- I was so hoping that he would not and that a thunderstorm would start while he was speaking, which the Deps and Qs could take as a sign from their deity.

by Anonymousreply 150July 10, 2020 4:45 PM

President Donald Trump postponed his New Hampshire rally due to weather concerns, former Republican National Committee chair Michael Steele thinks that’s a bogus excuse.

Saturday’s rally at a Portsmouth airport will be rescheduled for later after forecasts called for storms early in the day, with a 20 percent chance of rain by evening, but new reporting suggests the Trump campaign was concerned about attendance. “Carol Lee and her team are reporting that some White House officials are saying, ‘We don’t need another Tulsa,'” said MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell.

LMFAO.

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by Anonymousreply 151July 10, 2020 5:11 PM

NYT thows some awesome Timesian shade at Trump

[quote] Current weather forecasts for Portsmouth indicate that the rain is supposed to stop there around noon on Saturday; the rally was scheduled for 8 p.m.

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by Anonymousreply 152July 10, 2020 5:15 PM

R151, that sounds extremely believable. Maybe Trump should have pulled out his weather sharpie and redrawn the storm's path. That works, right?

by Anonymousreply 153July 10, 2020 5:18 PM

[quote]Trump cancelled New Hampshire rally citing "expected storms" in the area.

He was probably trying to avoid another "wet, slippery ramp" situation.

by Anonymousreply 154July 10, 2020 5:19 PM

Soon Trump will wield his magic weather sharpie.... and on Saturday night NH will be right in the storm's path. Be safe NH, a foot of snow is coming your way

by Anonymousreply 155July 10, 2020 5:25 PM

Just an observation.... all the hand-wringing about "it's too early!! remember HRC was ahead and you know what happened in 2016!! don't get complacent!!".... while there is a long way to go, I think Biden's lead, which at the least seems steady if not growing, has ENERGIZED the voters who want to defeat Trump.; Yes, the MAGA voter has been enthusiastic and will turn out... but the boderline Trump vote (maybe 10% of Republicans?) may be discouraged by their candidates increasing image as a Loser.

Keep up enthusiasm. Donate. Get more voters registered. Resist voter suppression. Our long national nightmare is coming to a close.

by Anonymousreply 156July 10, 2020 5:49 PM

[quote] In Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Trump had an unpopular opponent easy to demonize. In the final month before Election Day, 54 percent of respondents had an unfavorable view of her, according to a New York Times/CBS News Poll. Mr. Trump was in similar straits; he was viewed unfavorably by 56 percent of voters, the same percentage he holds today, according to the recent Times/Siena poll.

[quote] Mr. Biden, on the other hand, was viewed unfavorably by just 42 percent of voters in the same poll; 52 percent viewed him favorably.

[quote] “That was what was historic about that race,” said Joel Benenson, who was chief strategist for Mrs. Clinton. “You don’t have that now. You have Trump with that high unfavorable rating. But Biden doesn’t have that.”

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by Anonymousreply 157July 10, 2020 6:23 PM

Well, to compare Biden unfavorables in July to Hillary unfavorables iN October is not obviously an invalid comparison. Trump and the GOP haven’t even begun to unleash the slime and character assassination campaign on Biden. Wait til October

by Anonymousreply 158July 10, 2020 6:41 PM

Trump doesn't know how to run against an old white guy from a blue collar background who doesn't even know what woke means and whom the Left has repeatedly tried to cancel (Tara Reade). Kamala Harris called him a racist at one debate and yet it was her campaign that tanked shortly thereafter.

The Right and the GOP have no idea what to do with Biden other than call him old and senile. And that strategy failes because Trump himself struggles to descend ramps and drink water without looking like he just had a stroke.

Now they are saying Biden is a trojan horse for AOC and the far-left. But this is just too inside baseball for anyone to actually care.

by Anonymousreply 159July 10, 2020 6:50 PM

The Stans can not bring themselves to hear ANYTHING bad about Her.

Her unfavorables were always high

by Anonymousreply 160July 10, 2020 6:50 PM

I like this Joe Biden ad.

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by Anonymousreply 161July 10, 2020 6:53 PM

[quote] Trump and the GOP haven’t even begun to unleash the slime and character assassination campaign on Biden.

They haven’t?

by Anonymousreply 162July 10, 2020 6:56 PM

Why do the Stans want people to hate Biden as much as they hate Hillary?

Is it so they can claim some sort of victory?

by Anonymousreply 163July 10, 2020 6:57 PM

I think most Hillary supporters want Trump defeated

by Anonymousreply 164July 10, 2020 7:06 PM

"Hillary Supporters" and "Hillary Stans" are two different beasts R164

by Anonymousreply 165July 10, 2020 7:07 PM

R156 Yeah! I think the anti-Trump vote is very energized compared to 2016. I think (at least I hope) those who sat the election out thinking Trump was going to lose have had a fire lit under their asses. That being said, lets take nothing for granted. I don't think Trump has a prayer of winning the popular vote, but he could still win the EC. We are months out, and lets get real, the Trump people are going to getting dirtier and dirtier as we get closer to November.

by Anonymousreply 166July 10, 2020 7:15 PM

R166, you never know. A lot of those people are very opportunistic and want to work again. The number of people who will actually support Trump instead of abandoning him is about as big as Hitler’s inner circle in the bunker. Those people are going down hard. Everyone else is looking for a soft landing somewhere else.

Saying you love white supremacists or throwing the white supremacy gang sign or heiling Hitler is not as cool as it was in 2016 with conservatives. And that’s where Trump is going with his campaign.

If these people ever want to be elected again, they can’t do that. Or get a book deal, or a TV show, or be hired as a consultant. So we’ll see who the true believers are, or who needs a pardon.

by Anonymousreply 167July 10, 2020 7:24 PM

R167 I'm sorry I'm being pessimistic, but my faith in America is dead. It died in November 2016, and it keeps getting buried deeper and deeper. I believe that Trump still could very well win this thing. If we start thinking we have this in the page, we could face a real shock come election night.

by Anonymousreply 168July 10, 2020 7:36 PM

R168, you're right to be apprehensive and that's why none of us can afford to sit this election out. The stakes are too high.

by Anonymousreply 169July 10, 2020 7:38 PM

R168 people said the same thing about the Mid-terms in 2018 and we won across the board (except Florida).

by Anonymousreply 170July 10, 2020 7:44 PM

FL and GA cheated.

by Anonymousreply 171July 10, 2020 7:47 PM

R168, I agree with you actually, but Trump has flop sweat right now and some of the rats may feel it’s time to abandon ship. They have to work again. If he wins they’ll be surprised too. And screwed probably.

by Anonymousreply 172July 10, 2020 7:55 PM

Trump is completely lost and impotent without his big rallies. Being the showman was what gave his campaign life in 2016. He has little chance of winning without them.

by Anonymousreply 173July 10, 2020 8:35 PM

R160 - I think that many Hillary defenders are just bringing up the fact that a 20 year smear campaign headed up by Fox "News" and RWNJ talk show hosts (Limbaugh, etc.) created a false, undeserved hatred of Hillary. People who didn't have a dog in the fight (or knowledge of political FACTS) were saying that they didn't trust her, didn't like her, wanted her to fail, etc. I hardly find her either warm or likable as a politician but she was demonized unfairly. I still can't think of anything negative that she has ever done in politics, but she was easy to dislike for whatever reason.

by Anonymousreply 174July 10, 2020 8:37 PM

The higher the covid numbers in red states, the lower Trump's numbers will go over the next few weeks. It's never a good idea to kill your constituents.

by Anonymousreply 175July 10, 2020 8:38 PM

Silly Homosexuals.

In 2016 people told themselves that Trump would grow into the job

That he was just "acting like that" to get elected

After all, he had pretty much stuck to the rules when he went from real estate fraudster to reality TV show host

They told themselves that he'd grow bored of the job and turn governing over to his cabinet, so he could continue to play golf.

They told themselves they were sticking it to Hillary.

None of that proved to be the case and people quickly realized the horror show that Trump is and so in 2018 they voted against the GOP in droves.

Now it's 2020.

We have likeable Joe Biden, not Hillary

We have a pandemic and a racial justice movement that Trump is massively fucking up. People are dying. White People in Red States are dying and their hospitals are out of ICU beds.

Today, as per a new ABC/IPSOS poll, 67% of American disapprove of Trump's handling of COVID, only 32% approve and only 26% of independent voters approve,

People will stand in line for hours in the rain to vote him out. He's going down bigly

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by Anonymousreply 176July 10, 2020 8:46 PM

I could be very wrong, but I think the recent primaries showed that the issue was ultimately Hillary. People weren't voting for Bernie, they were voting against Hillary. This race would look a whole lot different right now if it were Bernie or Warren running.

by Anonymousreply 177July 10, 2020 8:52 PM

Instead of Teflon Don, it's now Teflon Joe. Nothing they try is sticking to him, and the effort is so disorganized that it's not creating any sort of lasting narrative. Trump's campaign is circling the drain, and fast.

Many of the pollsters I've read reporting back from focus groups say that voters are fed the fuck up with Trump. While I'm still scarred from 2016, I don't think as many as 400 EVs are out of the question.

by Anonymousreply 178July 10, 2020 8:54 PM

[quote] This race would look a whole lot different right now if it were Bernie or Warren running.

Both Bernie and Warren would lose. Biden is much better than either one of them. I'm glad he won the primary. Most of those critiques against Hilary look so ridiculous now (if they didn't then). For those who haven't seen her documentary on Hulu, I highly recommend you watch it. Bernie and Trump both end up looking like shit.

by Anonymousreply 179July 10, 2020 8:55 PM

Silly Homosexuals

Of course Biden is the best candidate.

He's a moderate old white guy and all Trump's attempts to paint him as an elitist or a bomb-throwing leftist won't work.

Bernie and Warren are easily painted as bomb-throwing leftists

And Hillary was the textbook definition of a coastal elitist

Biden is who he is, but right now you could not have a better candidate.

by Anonymousreply 180July 10, 2020 9:05 PM

Trump now claims that he will sign an executive order on DACA in the next days. They are really gunning for that latino vote.

by Anonymousreply 181July 10, 2020 10:28 PM

[quote]executive order

Is there a count of how many E/O's he has issued?

by Anonymousreply 182July 10, 2020 10:33 PM

R181, everyone said he should wait before taking another shot at ending DACA, but, no, he’s going to do it right now, because in Trumpland it’s always the right time to alienate more voters.

by Anonymousreply 183July 10, 2020 10:35 PM

One thing Biden has going for him that Hillary did not (besides the fact that he's a rich white heterosexual man), is that COVID has basically scrapped the campaign tour and that has resulted in less press scrutiny. Back in 2016, there was wall to wall coverage of both Clinton and Trump. Trump was just good ratings so they rarely challenged him and Clinton was scrutinized relentlessly. Biden has a propensity for putting his foot in his mouth but since he doesn't have to make public speeches, this basically allows him to keep on script while Trump (who now has a presidential record to defend until in 2016) is left answering the tough questions.

But we shouldn't think for a second that it's not possible for Trump to win. Don't allow yourself to believe for a second that there aren't closeted Trump supporters out there who are lying saying that they'll vote for Biden. Don't think the GOP and their goons aren't going to do everything they can (legal or not) to try and get Trump across the line in the EC. It's only July...November is a life time away in politics. And let's get real, America is full of idiots we have proven that to the word repeatedly over the last 20 years with Bush Jr. and again with Trump.

by Anonymousreply 184July 10, 2020 11:11 PM

[quote] Don't allow yourself to believe for a second that there aren't closeted Trump supporters out there who are lying saying that they'll vote for Biden.

Trump supporters are generally extremely vocal about their support. I’m not sure you’ve actually met any of them.

by Anonymousreply 185July 10, 2020 11:20 PM

[quote]But we shouldn't think for a second that it's not possible for Trump to win.

Who are you talking to? I don't think there is anyone on earth who thinks it is impossible that Trump could win.

by Anonymousreply 186July 10, 2020 11:22 PM

[quote] One thing Biden has going for him that Hillary did not (besides the fact that he's a rich white heterosexual man),

I really like Hilary but Biden is also FAR more relatable than she is. It's easier for people to imagine themselves having a beer with Biden than Hilary.

by Anonymousreply 187July 10, 2020 11:23 PM

I find Hillary extremely relatable, but I’m weird.

by Anonymousreply 188July 10, 2020 11:34 PM

Biden is great and more personable because he has more of a common touch. Hillary, however, is smarter and frankly has more balls that any man on the American political stage. She is, to date, the only politician to go after Putin to his face when she was Secretary of State...even Obama fell short of telling him off to his face. Biden will be a great one term president. Whomever he picks as his VP will likely be the nominee in 2024 since she has stated he will likely only run for one term.

by Anonymousreply 189July 10, 2020 11:39 PM

ABC News/Ipsos poll shows disapproval with Trump's handling of the COVID-19 crisis has reached a new high of 67%:

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by Anonymousreply 190July 10, 2020 11:49 PM

[quote]I think the anti-Trump vote is very energized compared to 2016.

I do as well, and I'm the person who brought up how things started to go south in July 2016. The enthusiasm to get Trump out of office will definitely energize the vote more than in 2016, when Trump was just a theoretical and people thought they had the option to cast a protest vote against Democrats to "send them a message." Very few think that way anymore.

That doesn't mean the GOP doesn't have a shit ton of dirty tricks they're going to unleash. That was my point.

Enough voters turn out and we can probably counter the cheating and dirty tricks, but it's not a certainty. And we have no idea what October Surprise the Repugs might pull.

by Anonymousreply 191July 11, 2020 12:00 AM

[quote]Don't allow yourself to believe for a second that there aren't closeted Trump supporters out there who are lying saying that they'll vote for Biden

I didn't believe that in 2016 and I don't believe it now. That was a lame excuse someone dreamed up to try to explain how Trump won even though polling showed he shouldn't have, including exit polling and early voting polls.

It's a shame so many bought it, because it doesn't make any sense. Only in key swing states did thousands of people lie to pollsters working for dozens of companies over the course of several months? Come on.

by Anonymousreply 192July 11, 2020 12:03 AM

[quote] Don't allow yourself to believe for a second that there aren't closeted Trump supporters out there who are lying saying that they'll vote for Biden

And even if there are, my HillaryStan friend, they are not 10% to 14% of the people being polled.

Because that's how much Biden is up.

PS: Yes the Republicans spent 25 years vilifying her, but that's because they quickly realized that unlike many of their targets, with Hillary, it stuck. That's unfortunate in that it was undeserved, but you have to play the cards you were dealt, and she had a pair of threes.

by Anonymousreply 193July 11, 2020 1:05 AM

How will commuting Stone’s sentence play?

We’re in 3 ongoing life changing crisis’ and he golfs and commutes the sentence of his co-conspirator.

by Anonymousreply 194July 11, 2020 1:50 AM

Maybe he’s getting ready to resign, R194.

Wait and see if he commutes some more sentences. He didn’t pardon him because you have to admit you’re guilty and you can be questioned in return for the pardon. So he commuted it.

by Anonymousreply 195July 11, 2020 1:56 AM

R184 Biden rich? Do you have an agenda or are just sorely uninformed? Biden has always been one of the "poorest" of major American politicians. It's part of his charm, and it's real.

by Anonymousreply 196July 11, 2020 2:00 AM

By commuting the sentence, it is a signal to those in the inner circle who is wavering , that if they stay loyal, he will take care of them. He is trying to prevent mass defection.

by Anonymousreply 197July 11, 2020 2:12 AM

[quote][R184] Biden rich?

He actually has some money now. He wrote a book a couple of years ago that pulled in a tidy sum. But, you're right that he is far, far, far, and or the longest of having any money. That's why the Ukraine story was stupid because he was about to sell his house in order to help with his son's medical bills. Obama stopped him and loaned him the money.

by Anonymousreply 198July 11, 2020 2:12 AM

News: @VoterCenter/ @VotoLatino poll of 1200 Latino voters in AZ, FL, NV, NC, PA, TX finds enthusiasm for Biden lagging:

BIDEN 60% TRUMP 25%

February:

BIDEN 67% TRUMP 22%

CLINTON had 73% support in June 2016

via @Newsweek

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by Anonymousreply 199July 11, 2020 2:58 AM

Clintons had strong Hispanic support. Always did. Biden will catch on. I’m not worried. I don’t listen to polls. I listen to what I see on the ground and it feels like 2006, 2008, 2018 for Dems. Even stronger.

by Anonymousreply 200July 11, 2020 3:14 AM

R200 Exactly. Folks missed that longterm strong affection for the Clintons in most of the several Latino demographics. It will take time to get to that level for Biden... but he may not need it.

by Anonymousreply 201July 11, 2020 3:18 AM

What I am hearing from my grandma’s friends is worse than 2018. Seniors are pissed at prez. It is palatable.

by Anonymousreply 202July 11, 2020 3:22 AM

R202 Palpable? Maybe? I have a weird imagine if you chewing on grandma's flesh.

by Anonymousreply 203July 11, 2020 3:24 AM

R203 damn voice to text

by Anonymousreply 204July 11, 2020 3:33 AM

Trump's margins in average of June 2020 Monmouth, Quinnipiac, NYT/Siena, NPR/Marist, Fox and CNN national polls vs. 2016 vote margins ('16 CCES):

Non-college whites: +21 (+24) Whites w/ college degrees: -22 (-9) African-Americans: -78 (-80) Latinos: -31 (-40)

by Anonymousreply 205July 11, 2020 4:21 AM

Main takeaway: Biden's big lead is mostly attributable to a huge anti-Trump shift in college+ whites since 2016. Biden actually doing slightly worse w/ non-whites than Clinton did in 2016, especially w/ Latino voters.

by Anonymousreply 206July 11, 2020 4:25 AM

Main point is Biden is leading huge. Period. Don’t care where. He cleaning up. Prez race shit isn’t making a difference with seniors or college educated whites. They’re done with him.

by Anonymousreply 207July 11, 2020 4:29 AM

I hope so, but I’m uneasy counting on White people to do the right thing in November. They are soft and not reliable to vote Democratic

by Anonymousreply 208July 11, 2020 4:34 AM

R208 they were in 2018. They are sick of this shit.

by Anonymousreply 209July 11, 2020 4:37 AM

Good, but a presidential election has much larger turnout than a midterm

by Anonymousreply 210July 11, 2020 4:46 AM

R210 every election since his inauguration has seen 20 to 30 points swings towards the Democrats. Every single one. That’s a trend.

by Anonymousreply 211July 11, 2020 5:00 AM

R210 - you obviously don't know any Republicans. They turn out for EVERY election; its a cult remember?? I have an entire family full of them. It's the Dems that get lazy and complacent. My guess is that this year people will be crawling over broken glass to vote this criminal idiot and his Senate cronies out. That said, keep the momentum going!

by Anonymousreply 212July 11, 2020 5:01 AM

Harry Enten:

Senate Dem candidates reported raising a boatload of $$$. Why does that matter? In an tied race in June, a challenger who outraises the incumbent 2:1 gains 3 pts on average during the rest of the race. Now, multiple that by 5 tossup races. It's a huge deal

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by Anonymousreply 213July 11, 2020 11:34 PM

It appears that it is Trump's goal to take the Republican party down with him. GOOD! From what I can see, it has only been Mitt Romney that has spoken out against Trump and this Roger Stone mess. But... I'm now noticing that other Republicans are changing (or, moderating positions) and/or being challenged about inconsistencies. I mean... Joni Ernst is now advocating the removal of Confederate names from military bases? Ted Cruz is being questioned about why he supported a NIKE boycott that pulled a shoe featuring the Betsy Ross flag as free speech but feels that a boycott of Goya Foods is the suppression of free speech?

Interesting times....

by Anonymousreply 214July 12, 2020 12:11 AM

Republicans invented cancel culture. They use to try to get shit canceled all the time. Movies, books, songs you name it.

How is Mitt the voice of reason? He’ll never get elected prez as a republican. That base will never accept the average republican again.

by Anonymousreply 215July 12, 2020 1:11 AM

[quote] That base will never accept the average republican again.

The GOP could just tell them to fuck off. Yes, they would alienate 30% of the electorate, but those people shouldn’t be voting anyway.

by Anonymousreply 216July 12, 2020 1:24 AM

R216 I wish they would because it would mean Dem super majorities for a long time.

by Anonymousreply 217July 12, 2020 1:27 AM

[quote] That base will never accept the average republican again.

“That base” = the average Republican. Mitt and all of the rest helped create the monsters.

by Anonymousreply 218July 12, 2020 1:29 AM

R218 yes and they’re hungry for red meat now.

by Anonymousreply 219July 12, 2020 1:30 AM

I hate the stories about; "This party is dead and must revamp itself," because many times they are wrong. But, right now? I think the Republican party will have to seriously consider re-making itself or even renaming itself. Who is coming up in the ranks after Trump? Tom Cotton? Ted Cruz? Marco Rubio? Hmm... NO THANK YOU!

by Anonymousreply 220July 12, 2020 1:34 AM

You said the Party was dead in 2008 too

by Anonymousreply 221July 12, 2020 1:36 AM

Bigger fear is that it will turn into the party of White Trash, that the country club Republicans will form their own party and pull away some more conservative Democrats but that "the base" -- working class mostly older white people --will identify with the Trumpist party which could morph into something like AfD in Germany

by Anonymousreply 222July 12, 2020 3:20 AM

R222 but we don’t have a parliamentary voting system here so it won’t work.

People are realizing the high minded platitudes once ascribed to the republicans like law and order, love of military and so forth have always been practiced by Dems. Many are realizing they were brainwashed against Dems their entire lives.

by Anonymousreply 223July 12, 2020 3:25 AM

There is nothing that says we have to have just two parties R223

The Trumpists could take over state governments in places like Alabama and elect Trumpist senators and Representatives. Imagine if the Tea Party had actually broken with the main GOP, but worse.

by Anonymousreply 224July 12, 2020 3:29 AM

R224 it’s impractical. I find most conservative leaning voters feel this way as that party went off the rails and proved they have no principles.

by Anonymousreply 225July 12, 2020 3:32 AM

[quote] Bigger fear is that it will turn into the party of White Trash, that the country club Republicans will form their own party and pull away some more conservative Democrats but that "the base" -- working class mostly older white people --will identify with the Trumpist party which could morph into something like AfD in Germany

Our system does not accommodate 3rd parties. Even our more well established 3rd parties don’t have even as many as 1 million members. So none of that is going to happen.

by Anonymousreply 226July 12, 2020 4:28 AM

Some people make fun of Biden saying he's prone to gaffs, too old, senile and other mean things.

Hell, I will glory at poking fun at his imperfections if he's our next president. I will be so happy to laugh at his gaffes and grin when he stumbles, as he inevitably will. It will feel so good to poke fun at a decent, experienced, kind and compassionate man rather than this daily outrage over a lying, criminal orange bag of shit. I've never felt such hate and disgust in my life.

If Biden wins, however, I will not make fun of him. I might smile at his gaffes but I will be eternally grateful to be rid of trump. Give me a sweet, goofy, grandpa any day, one with impressive foreign policy chops and a friendly smile. Fuck trump, VOTE FOR BIDEN!

by Anonymousreply 227July 12, 2020 5:08 AM

[quote]If Biden wins

I'll be able to sleep again and not grit my teeth.

by Anonymousreply 228July 12, 2020 5:13 AM

and wake up happy.

by Anonymousreply 229July 12, 2020 5:15 AM

Much of the Republicans' success for the last couple of decades has been because of electoral tricks like gerrymandering, voter suppression, and the electoral college: they disguise the fact that Democrats actually get more votes (in Congress and for president). If enough Democrats get elected at the state level the former two can be corrected, and there's probably enough popular support for doing away with the electoral college at the national level. Then you'll see the Republicans' strength evaporate and they'll be exposed as the shrinking minority party they are.

by Anonymousreply 230July 12, 2020 12:19 PM

They’re not a shrinking minority party. There’s plenty of lightskin Latinos mixing with whites who are ready to fill the void left by dying GOP geriatrics. They can’t wait to demonstrate how white and American they are by voting Republican now that they’re breaching the higher echelons of society.

by Anonymousreply 231July 12, 2020 1:04 PM

About a third of Latinos already vote Republican

by Anonymousreply 232July 12, 2020 2:38 PM

New @CBSNews poll of likely voters:

Florida: Biden 48 / Trump 42 Texas: Trump 46 / Biden 45 Arizona: Biden 46 / Trump 46

by Anonymousreply 233July 12, 2020 2:38 PM

New poll of TEXAS from UT Tyler/ Dallas Morning News:

TRUMP 43 BIDEN 48

Dem Senate Primary Hegar 35 West 22 Undecided 32

(June 29-July 7, 1,677 LVs, bilingual mixed mode, MoE 3.4%)

Largest Texas Biden lead I’ve seen so far.

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by Anonymousreply 234July 12, 2020 2:39 PM

#ALABAMA Poll by Auburn University at Montgomery (@aumontgomery)

U.S. Senate: #Jones (D) : 36% #Tuberville (R) : 44% (+8%)

U.S. Senate: #Jones (D) : 43% #Sessions (R) : 49% (+6%)

2-9 JUL / 558 RV

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by Anonymousreply 235July 12, 2020 2:41 PM

Biden at 69% with Latino voters in Arizona

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by Anonymousreply 236July 12, 2020 2:49 PM

"Latino" voters are no more a monolith than "European-American" voters

Rich white Cubans in Miami have very different interests than poor brown Mexican immigrants in Texans who have different interests than fourth-generation Mexican-Americans in California or third-generation Puerto Ricans in New York.

by Anonymousreply 237July 12, 2020 2:56 PM

Precisely. Democrats need to be sensitive to how offended many Latinos are to presumptions that immigration is their top or motivating issue or that they all think and vote the same

by Anonymousreply 238July 12, 2020 3:02 PM

R33,You should look into Romney a bit more. If bankrupting businesses and throwing Americans out of their jobs is being "decent," what is your definition of "indecent"?

Romney is a tall and handsome vulture capitalist who believes that Joseph Smith was something other than the fraud he was.

by Anonymousreply 239July 12, 2020 3:04 PM

[quote] Romney is a tall and handsome vulture capitalist

I was about to say the same about him being a vulture capitalist. The tall and handsome part gets him a pass from some people who should know better.

by Anonymousreply 240July 12, 2020 4:59 PM

New poll has Biden leading Trump by 5 points in Texas.

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by Anonymousreply 241July 12, 2020 6:22 PM

R241, you so late. R234 reported that in the morning bro

by Anonymousreply 242July 12, 2020 6:31 PM

These polls are ridiculous. Leading in Texas but tied in Arizona? I want Arizona; couldn’t care less about Texas.

by Anonymousreply 243July 12, 2020 6:32 PM

They’re different pollsters. And why would you want AZ over TX? TX has way more electoral votes.

by Anonymousreply 244July 12, 2020 6:34 PM

Because we actually have a shot at winning Arizona. Texas is a unicorn and I’m sick of chasing it. I hope Biden doesn’t waste any time or money there.

by Anonymousreply 245July 12, 2020 6:36 PM

Yeah but if Texas starts to come I'll let it jizz all over my face for those sweet, sweet Electoral Votes.

by Anonymousreply 246July 12, 2020 6:57 PM

Biden's campaign is smart enough to know not to try the 2016 moves of putting money into red states.

That said, if Texas is turning to Biden now, without any money being spent, there's a good chance it will stay that way. It's not like people are going to see Trump's ads and think "Gosh, we're in complete lockdown and I'm out of work because Trump fucked up the coronavirus, but at least Ilhan Omar and AOC won't be knocking down the Washington Monument any time soon if Trump is re-elected."

by Anonymousreply 247July 12, 2020 7:26 PM

[QUOTE] Yeah but if Texas starts to come I'll let it jizz all over my face for those sweet, sweet Electoral Votes.

Well when you put it that way. 😂

by Anonymousreply 248July 12, 2020 7:29 PM

Florida scares me even more than Texas. That state is literally crawling in Rethug corruption - it has more crooks than giant cockroaches if that is even possible. The amount of elections the sate has stolen for the GOP is staggering. Texas is full of Republicans which certainly makes it unappealing - but my faith in the fairness of their elections is more optimistic at least.

by Anonymousreply 249July 12, 2020 7:43 PM

You’re right, when it comes to stolen elections nobody beats Florida.

by Anonymousreply 250July 13, 2020 12:29 AM

Homosexuals-- the Seniors in Florida , even the Republican ones, are completely freaked out that Florida is leading the world in COVID cases and that Trump and DeSantis are at fault and that Trump basically told them to fuck off and die already.

He has less of a shot there, cheating or no cheating, than in TX or AZ

by Anonymousreply 251July 13, 2020 12:57 AM

Seniors everywhere are pissed and no amount of damage control will change this.

by Anonymousreply 252July 13, 2020 1:01 AM

I agree with R251. Trump is getting consistently worse numbers in Florida than Arizona or Texas, even from friendly pollsters.

by Anonymousreply 253July 13, 2020 2:39 AM

In its latest analysis of the electoral map, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved seven states out of the 'safe' column for Donald Trump. Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina and Utah are all now rated Likely Republican.

Trump remains the favorite in all of them, but Sabato says the "ratings represent something of a hedge between a Trump comeback and Biden maintaining or expanding his large national lead."

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by Anonymousreply 254July 14, 2020 1:39 PM

R254, thanks for posting the update for Sabato's Crystal Ball.

If Trump's winning margin drops in Montana, that will also help Governor Steve Bullock (D) who is in a close Senate fight with Sen. Steve Daines (R).

by Anonymousreply 255July 14, 2020 7:49 PM

**ARIZONA**

SENATE

OH Predictive Insights

Kelly (D) 52%

McSally (R) 43%

[600 Likely Voters, survey conducted July 6th - July 7th, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 256July 14, 2020 8:47 PM

**FLORIDA**

Gravis Marketing

Biden (53%)

Trump (43%)

[529 Likely Voters, July 13, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 257July 14, 2020 8:59 PM

New State Polls Released

#Wisconsin (601 LV) : #Trump: 42% #Biden : 48% (+6%)

#Pennsylvania (743 LV) : #Trump: 42% #Biden : 50% (+8%)

#NorthCarolina (655 LV) : #Trump: 46% #Biden : 47% (+1%)

JUL 10-12

CNBC (@CNBC) + Change Research(@ChangePolls)

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by Anonymousreply 258July 15, 2020 11:41 AM

New State Polls Released

#Michigan (824 LV) : #Trump: 42% #Biden : 48% (+6%)

#Florida (1,128LV) : #Trump: 43% #Biden : 50% (+7%)

#Arizona (345 LV) : #Trump: 45% #Biden : 51% (+6%)

JUL 10-12

CNBC (@CNBC) + Change Research(@ChangePolls)

by Anonymousreply 259July 15, 2020 11:41 AM

That’s why Republicans up for election/re-election will have a hard time of it in November. They have to kowtow to Dump, because their base is all in for him. But it’s not enough.

Agreed; rural voters love Dump; even in MD, you see Dump signs in the rural part of the state. That said, COVID cases are slowly starting to show up in rural areas and they have no healthcare infrastructure on a good day, never mind when a pandemic hits.

by Anonymousreply 260July 15, 2020 12:06 PM

Former Vice President Joe Biden has widened his lead over President Trump to 15 points in a new national Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll released Wednesday shows Biden garnering 52 percent of the vote to Trump’s 37 percent. That’s the widest lead for Biden recorded by a Quinnipiac survey to date. A similar poll fielded last month found Biden leading Trump by 8 points.

The survey of 1,273 registered voters was conducted July 9-13. It has a margin of sampling error of 2.8 percentage points.

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by Anonymousreply 261July 15, 2020 7:53 PM

That Quinnipiac poll is a killer.

by Anonymousreply 262July 15, 2020 8:15 PM

The most important part of that poll

% of people who feel STRONGLY unfavorable about a candidate in June 2016 Clinton: 50% Trump: 48% July 2020 Biden: 31% Trump: 53%

This is NOT 2016.

by Anonymousreply 263July 15, 2020 8:20 PM

Independents/soft republicans will hold their noses and vote Biden. They wouldn’t do that for Clinton. Obviously we are a lifetime away from Election Day, but early votings starts in 6 weeks. The incumbent being 15 points down is not possible to come back from.

by Anonymousreply 264July 15, 2020 8:23 PM

[quote] Obviously we are a lifetime away from Election Day, but early votings starts in 6 weeks.

This is what I wish more people would keep in mind. In the states that allow it, early voting is extremely popular. I don’t what percentage of people vote early, but it’s sizable.

by Anonymousreply 265July 15, 2020 8:28 PM

While I don’t think these two men are alike at all, both Trump and Bernie conflated their own popularity with the (unjust) negative perception of Hillary. They’re both playing the exact same plays of 2016 with wildly different results in 2020. Trump keeps hitting the “replay” button and he can’t understand why it isn’t working again.

by Anonymousreply 266July 15, 2020 8:28 PM

Also, a new PA poll out today which has Biden up by 13 points.

by Anonymousreply 267July 15, 2020 8:33 PM

Biden inches ahead trump on the economy in this poll for the first time. If that trend continues its lights out for trump. That was his last saving grace.

by Anonymousreply 268July 15, 2020 8:34 PM

[quote]While I don’t think these two men are alike at all, both Trump and Bernie conflated their own popularity with the (unjust) negative perception of Hillary. They’re both playing the exact same plays of 2016 with wildly different results in 2020. Trump keeps hitting the “replay” button and he can’t understand why it isn’t working again.

Bernie failed badly in 2020, because he wasn't running against Hillary this time. The same is happening with Trump.

by Anonymousreply 269July 15, 2020 8:34 PM

On another note, CNN is reporting RBG has been released from the hospital.

by Anonymousreply 270July 15, 2020 8:36 PM

Biden is up 13 points in a new Pennsylvania poll by Monmouth.

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by Anonymousreply 271July 15, 2020 8:40 PM

[quote]I don’t know what percentage of people vote early, but it’s sizable.

I think most people will be voting early this year to avoid the long and dangerous lines on election day. You'd be a fool not to. So election day for many voters is just 3 months away.

by Anonymousreply 272July 15, 2020 8:46 PM

NBC/WSJ poll July 9-12: Biden 51, Trump 40. 50% say there is no chance they will vote for Trump

by Anonymousreply 273July 15, 2020 9:04 PM

One thing the NBC poll is showing is that Biden’s negatives are increasing among voters. Trump’s attacks on him May be starting to land on driving up Biden’s negatives

by Anonymousreply 274July 15, 2020 9:15 PM

+1 R269

by Anonymousreply 275July 15, 2020 9:20 PM

W00T!

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by Anonymousreply 276July 15, 2020 9:27 PM

I'm definitely voting Biden. Thank God the Democrats are nominating a moderate. Last time I voted Libertarian.

by Anonymousreply 277July 15, 2020 10:34 PM

Biden is now doing commercials catering to the rust belt about how he’s going to create green manufacturing jobs in the U.S. That’s got to help out in places like Pennsylvania.

One thing you can say about Biden is thankfully he’s a very known brand. Everybody knows he’s plain spoken and doesn’t lie like a rug, like SOME people I could mention. If he says he’s going to do it, he will, just give him a Democratic senate.

by Anonymousreply 278July 15, 2020 10:50 PM

[quote]Last time I voted Libertarian.

I cannot even fathom your stupidity.

by Anonymousreply 279July 15, 2020 10:54 PM

[quote]If he says he’s going to do it, he will, just give him a Democratic senate.

The Democrats need to fully take advantage of the first two years, when they're going to have a Dem House, Senate, and President... and get as much of their agenda passed into law as quickly as possible. You know Nancy will get to work and knows how to shut down the ones who cause trouble like AOC and Omar.

And fortunately Joe knows how the Senate operates, having been a member for 36 years. I'm not a big fan of Chuck Schumer. I really wish Amy Klobuchar could become Senate Majority Leader. She would be able to get a ton of things accomplished and passed.

by Anonymousreply 280July 15, 2020 10:57 PM

I'd rather see Patty Murray as Senate Majority Leader. She's known to be the smartest and best negotiator in the senate. She has a track record of getting things done.

A Pelosi/Murray combo would be formidable.

by Anonymousreply 281July 15, 2020 11:10 PM

Harry Enten:

New Monmouth PA poll has Biden above 50% and an average of their two LV and RV estimates have him up 10 pts. Clinton was at 40% at this point in PA and only up 2. These races are so completely different.

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by Anonymousreply 282July 15, 2020 11:47 PM

Henry Enten has hawt Semetic good looks. I don't understand why he uses a dog as his Twitter photo.

by Anonymousreply 283July 16, 2020 12:10 AM

Someone will bump this thread November 4 as a tragic example of how Democrats got foolishly overconfident and counted chickens before they hatched

by Anonymousreply 284July 16, 2020 12:14 AM

No one is leaving anything to chance this November. I will crawl over broken glass to vote the incompetent orange shit stain traitor out of office.

by Anonymousreply 285July 16, 2020 12:20 AM

oh please, R284

you tell me how Trump can turn around a 15-point Biden lead

by Anonymousreply 286July 16, 2020 12:24 AM

At some point, and I think we're rapidly approaching it, if not already there, the conventional wisdom gets baked in that one candidate is a loser. Turning it around at that point becomes damn near impossible because every story, every quote, every ad is seen through that lens. "Trump, desperate to change the narrative, did...."

Even if that were not the case, how on earth is Trump going to turn it around? What group of voters can he possibly appeal to? And how is he going to appeal to them when he's doubling down on the whining, the denial, and the blatant racism? The more he speaks at those "press conferences" of his, the lower his numbers get. He can't turn things around on COVID-19, since he's an incompetent moron. His so-called "death star" ad campaign has fizzled without moving the needle one iota. And his campaign has already spent something like $600 million, leaving him worse off than when he began.

Where is the miracle that's going to save him? The only thing he has left, that they all have left, is voter suppression. But that hasn't worked so well for them in 2017, 2018, 2019, and, so far, in 2020.

by Anonymousreply 287July 16, 2020 12:35 AM

Please note that I am definitely *not* saying that it's over. There are still a few months to go; anything can happen, including events that neither candidate can control, but if I were a betting man, I'd be putting money on Biden right now. I'm just not seeing much of a path for Trump to victory, particularly with how he handles bad news and how much he has visibly deteriorated.

This isn't 2016; Biden isn't Clinton; and the Trump of 2020 isn't the Trump of 2016, particularly not in the eyes of the voters.

by Anonymousreply 288July 16, 2020 12:42 AM

R287/r288, thanks for two very well-reasoned, balanced posts. I think the key point you made was Dump’s deterioration. He had nothing to lose in 2016 and just let it all out. He has everything to lose in 2020, so he’s terrified, and it shows.

by Anonymousreply 289July 16, 2020 12:46 AM

Michael Dukakis just reminded Democrats not to take these polls seriously. A Gallup general election poll released July 26, 1988 gave Dukakis a 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush, the Republican nominee.

by Anonymousreply 290July 16, 2020 12:50 AM

Papa Bush stomped Dukakis in that election

by Anonymousreply 291July 16, 2020 12:51 AM

If the election were today, Biden would easily win. But don't forget, there's ALWAYS an October surprise that could benefit or harm either candidate. Hell, both Biden and Trump are so old that it's not unfeasible that one could die before Election Day.

by Anonymousreply 292July 16, 2020 12:53 AM

[quote]Michael Dukakis just reminded Democrats not to take these polls seriously. A Gallup general election poll released July 26, 1988 gave Dukakis a 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush, the Republican nominee.

I call bullshit on that. Dukakis lost in a huge landslide, and he was never ahead by 17 in any polls, or ahead at all for that matter.

by Anonymousreply 293July 16, 2020 12:55 AM

I really wish people would stop using examples of prior poll snapshots that are not comparable.

Bush and Dukakis criss-crossed in the polls during the election season. Biden has consistently led Trump.

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by Anonymousreply 294July 16, 2020 12:56 AM

R293, let the educated engage in this discussion.

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by Anonymousreply 295July 16, 2020 12:57 AM

R292, October surprises are actually quite rate. 2016 is one of the only times an October surprise (the Comey letter) seemed to truly throw the election--but even that could not have happened had the polls not been so close in key states PLUS the voter suppression that happened.

by Anonymousreply 296July 16, 2020 12:57 AM

Hillary LED almost all national polls throughout 2016, including by over 10 points in an ABC tracking polls within two weeks of the election

by Anonymousreply 297July 16, 2020 12:59 AM

Dukakis

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by Anonymousreply 298July 16, 2020 12:59 AM

The better argument to distinguish Dukakis’ polls From current one is that Dukakis’ polls were correlated to his Democratic convention, which occurred before the Republican convention in 1988. His lead was a convention bounce that quickly crashed when Republicans held their convention and unleashed attacks on Dukakis. In contrast, Biden’s current leads are attributed to natural events instead of a convention.

by Anonymousreply 299July 16, 2020 1:03 AM

R297, Clinton and Trump were tied several points during the election season.

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by Anonymousreply 300July 16, 2020 1:05 AM

So far, Trump hasn't come anywhere close to being tied with Biden.

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by Anonymousreply 301July 16, 2020 1:05 AM

R299, exactly. Dukakis got a big bump from the convention, but it was short lived and not reflective of how he was polling across the whole election season.

by Anonymousreply 302July 16, 2020 1:07 AM

According to the data in R294, Dukakis's lead wasn't just a convention bump: he pulled ahead of Bush in May (when his nomination was assured) and stayed ahead, sometimes well ahead, until the Republican convention, when Bush pulled ahead and stayed ahead.

by Anonymousreply 303July 16, 2020 1:16 AM

Dukakis ran a horrible campaign and made many mistakes (the helmet episode anybody?). He blew that big lead.

by Anonymousreply 304July 16, 2020 1:19 AM

I was a child in 1988, but I never forget how Republicans made “Massachusetts liberal” into a nasty slur.

by Anonymousreply 305July 16, 2020 1:21 AM

In unison, Republicans taunted Dukakis mercilessly as a “Massachusetts tax and spend liberal” who was soft on crime. It was a bloodbath

by Anonymousreply 306July 16, 2020 1:24 AM

Re: "October Surprise"

Not happening this year because of mail-in voting--many people will be voting early.

So it would need to be a September surprise.

by Anonymousreply 307July 16, 2020 1:24 AM

Many of Anusmouth's supporters are virulently anti-mask AND anti-vaxx, so there's a big possibility that they, their families and their closest relations might not be around to vote on 2 November or in the Spring for their local/state.

by Anonymousreply 308July 16, 2020 1:29 AM

Also, Dukakis made the mistake of taking a break from campaigning after the Democratic convention, giving room for Bush and Atwater to get in there and do their thing without rapid response. A mistake Clinton and Carville learned from.

by Anonymousreply 309July 16, 2020 1:31 AM

If you want to see comparable polling, look at Reagan vs. Mondale:

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by Anonymousreply 310July 16, 2020 1:33 AM

Or Nixon v. McGovern. I've said this repeatedly: Trump can only win this by straight-up cheating.

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by Anonymousreply 311July 16, 2020 1:34 AM

Hillary didn’t learn that. She essentially coasted in August and September, asking folks why she wasn’t 30 Points ahead

by Anonymousreply 312July 16, 2020 1:35 AM

[quote]In unison, Republicans taunted Dukakis mercilessly as a “Massachusetts tax and spend liberal” who was soft on crime. It was a bloodbath

And voters LOVED Bush coming out and saying "Read My Lips: NO NEW TAXES."

Yeah, he didn't keep his promise, but it was a very effective campaign moment.

by Anonymousreply 313July 16, 2020 1:39 AM

These kinds of presumptuous headlines created a backlash against Hillary. Democrats should avoid repeating this mistake

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by Anonymousreply 314July 16, 2020 1:41 AM

[quote]Hillary didn’t learn that. She essentially coasted in August and September, asking folks why she wasn’t 30 Points ahead

The poster above meant that Bill Clinton had learned that lesson from Dukakis' mistake. But yes, Hillary then refused to take any advice from Bill, a two-term President.

by Anonymousreply 315July 16, 2020 1:42 AM

R313, it worked great for him in '88, but bit him in the ass in '92.

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by Anonymousreply 316July 16, 2020 1:44 AM

Donald Trump heavily out-campaigned his Democratic opponent in the last 100 days of the election, spending roughly 50 percent more time in six key battleground states that pushed him to victory on Nov. 8.

Over the final 100 days of the election, Trump made a total of 133 visits to Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin. Over the same time period, Hillary Clinton visited the first five of those states a total of 87 times. She never traveled to Wisconsin during the 102 days between the convention and the election. Malpractice

by Anonymousreply 317July 16, 2020 1:44 AM

Your reasoning sure is huffy, but makes no sense. Hillary focused on all swing states she needed only most of to win, that's what you do. You campaign where the reward is big and winning or tying up the win possible. Your "conventional wisdom" by way of four year-old talking points flavored with all the wisdom of an old Newsweek magazine sense of reasoning isn't what you think it is.

If all polling says Wisconsin, a traditional blue state is looking good, you focus on trying to nail down Florida, PA, OH, NC and NH which she barnstormed the whole campaign. Trump ran perhaps the worst Presidential campaign in history, but had racism, Russia, and James Comey gunning hard for him, as well as the most vile ignorant electorate since 1968. I guess you don't count any of that, right?

by Anonymousreply 318July 16, 2020 1:54 AM

It was her emails that did her in.

by Anonymousreply 319July 16, 2020 1:54 AM

R318, Obama says you are wrong

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by Anonymousreply 320July 16, 2020 2:02 AM

We get it, you think uncle Joe is going to lose. R318.

by Anonymousreply 321July 16, 2020 2:05 AM

Here is my only concern troll bit of the day and then I'll shut up.

I think Biden is gonna win this thing, but I also know that it's only July 15 and today is a lifetime away from November 3. And political races tend to tighten after labor day. All I would ask (plead) is that you build yourself some wiggle room in case something changes. In case this thing goes south, no one will be in the mood to see all the threads from all of you who are overconfident now turn on a dime and start complaining about how Biden was the wrong candidate and then start the usual blame game on various demographics in the party as to why he lost.

This is all I'm saying. I've been here long enough and I've seen it happen over and over. Build yourself some wiggle room... please.

by Anonymousreply 322July 16, 2020 2:08 AM

[quote]Trump ran perhaps the worst Presidential campaign in history

That's just not true. He tapped into white, working class anger in the Midwestern Rust Belt states that Hillary was completely tone-deaf toward.

by Anonymousreply 323July 16, 2020 2:08 AM

No Trump was the worst candidate who Won. He and his minions absolutely destroyed Hillary’s favorability ratings among swing state voters and depressed Democratic turnout. He was absolutely maniacal about having huge raucous rallies that made him look like a blue collar revolutionary leader. He was tireless in his campaigning and media appearance, and media rewarded him with the spotlight.

by Anonymousreply 324July 16, 2020 2:14 AM

[quote]We get it, you think uncle Joe is going to lose. [R318].

Huh? No, I don't think that at all!

Unplug your crystal ball and quit trying to read minds.

by Anonymousreply 325July 16, 2020 2:18 AM

I feel so sorry for the Bidens.

Jill Biden is going to move into the White House and find roaches, rats, and dirty diapers stuffed under the bed. Seriously, I wouldn’t put it past the Trumps to dump bags of cockroaches everywhere. They are complete white trash, and if they didn’t have money, they’d be smoking meth the next trailer over from Mama June and Honey Boo Boo. But without the massive plastic surgery they’d barely look human.

by Anonymousreply 326July 16, 2020 2:22 AM

In 2016 Trump also benefited from the "8-Year Rule" -- since the end of the FDR-Truman era in 1952, no party has held the White House for longer than 8 Years except once (1980-1992). The electorate usually desires a change after 8 years of one party in the White House, and that was one of the factors that caused a drop in Democratic numbers in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 327July 16, 2020 2:41 AM

Yep, And Hillary campaigned as an extension of the Obama Era, instead of a change agent. It didn’t help that people associated her with the 90s and Bill Clinton. People wanted new blood

by Anonymousreply 328July 16, 2020 2:46 AM

Sure, Voters Think Trump Is Incompetent – But Most Voters Thought That In 2016, Too

by Anonymousreply 329July 16, 2020 3:02 AM

This election will be a referendum on Trumps COVID response. Polls are playing that out. With almost 4 million infected, we're rapidly approaching the point where everybody will know somebody effected. Many will know somebody who died.

By October, I think we're pretty much locked in at 200,000 deaths at this point. The momentum is there. Perhaps 10,000,000 infected?

Why do you think Trump wants all the numbers run through him first?

This will be why he loses.

by Anonymousreply 330July 16, 2020 3:19 AM

Trump won the over 65ers by 10 percentage points in 2016. Now that same demographic has swung to Biden. Those people VOTE.

This could be quite the electoral route. Georgia in play? Texas a close call? I’m popping popcorn.

by Anonymousreply 331July 16, 2020 3:33 AM

PollTroll (R327) nails it - as always. Outside of obvious and now validated cheating, this is perhaps the single biggest factor the led to Trump's "win" IMO. It was my primary fear before the election actually and I was too young to pay attention to Bush Senior's one term making the GOP domination 12 years up to 1992. What I did remember was Bill Clinton being FAR more youthful, "sexy" (to the middle-age set at the time) and far more in-touch than the old, creepy Bush in the 1990s. The country seemed ready to vomit him out of office ASAP. Fast forward to Obama's win in 2008. Fox News had a full-on extended field day trashing both Hillary and Obama nonstop for 8 years leading up to Trump's victory. The GOP base was practically foaming at the mouth by the election in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 332July 16, 2020 3:39 AM

[quote]What I did remember was Bill Clinton being FAR more youthful, "sexy" (to the middle-age set at the time) and far more in-touch than the old, creepy Bush in the 1990s.

The economy was also tanking horribly in 1991 and 1992, which doesn't favor the incumbent (Bush).

by Anonymousreply 333July 16, 2020 3:44 AM

Interesting...

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by Anonymousreply 334July 16, 2020 3:46 AM

I think Biden will win with Obama 2008 numbers. It's no longer an election, it's a countdown.

by Anonymousreply 335July 16, 2020 4:31 AM

He has to. The only way to ensure GOP ratfucking fails is big turnout.

by Anonymousreply 336July 16, 2020 4:36 AM

R284, are you going to offer your reasoning for why you think this is somehow going to all turn around for Trump?

by Anonymousreply 337July 16, 2020 4:46 AM

NOTHING OUR QUEEN DOES IS WRONG!!!

EVER!!!

SHE SPENT THE ENTIRE CAMPAIGN IN THE PLACES WHERE SHE SHOULD HAVE BEEN!!

SHE DID NOT SLOW DOWN IN THE SUMMER, SHE MERELY FOCUSES ON OTHER THINGS

YOU ALL HAVE HILLARY DERANGEMENT SYNDROME THAT IS WHY YOU CANNOT UNDERSTAND THE GENIUS OF HER PLANS

SHE IS THE MOST BELOVED, MOST QUALIFIED, MOST PERFECT CANDIDATE EVER

I WILL NOT ALLOW YOU TO QUESTIONS ANY DECISIONS SHE MADE!!

ANY!!!

(I have stated my boundaries)

by Anonymousreply 338July 16, 2020 10:11 AM

Why do DLers attribute such power to Fox News?

Tucker Carlson's show is only watched by around 4 million people each night.

Our of 300 million.

David Muir on ABC draws in over 10 million and CBS and NBC are not far behind.

Surely those 4 million folks don't represent half the country

by Anonymousreply 339July 16, 2020 10:15 AM

Yaaaas queen, R338! I particularly liked how she collapsed and had to be thrown into a van like a sack of potatoes so that she could recover and prove how strong she was.

by Anonymousreply 340July 16, 2020 10:16 AM

[quote] The electorate usually desires a change after 8 years of one party in the White House

Love you, Poll Troll, but let's make a distinction between "the electorate" and "the electoral college." In 2016 the electorate chose another 4 years of Democrats on top of Obama's 8; Trump won, enforcing the "8-year rule," only because of very narrow wins in three states, helped by the usual voter suppression and various other factors (some to be laid at Hillary's door, some not).

by Anonymousreply 341July 16, 2020 12:41 PM

Ha! R340

I suspect that most of DLs Hillary Stans live in darkest Flyoverstan where their Deplorable relatives an co-workers constantly mock them about Hillary and believe in things like Pizzagate and that Vince guy wasn't a suicide and all that. Thus they react viscerally to any hint of negative sentiment about her.

Though I'm probably giving them the benefit of the doubt.

by Anonymousreply 342July 16, 2020 1:27 PM

[quote]Why do DLers attribute such power to Fox News?

I asked a similar question recently. I've come to the conclusion that people need a tangible villain. And sometimes it's easier to blame that tangible villain than actual real people. You see it on here all the time. "My parents are brainwashed by Fox News" or "My family is brainwashed by Fox News" Maybe the truth, you don't want to face, is your family is racist and deplorable and while they may tolerate you and your "lifestyle" it doesn't go much further than you. It's a tough thing to have to admit to yourself.

by Anonymousreply 343July 16, 2020 1:50 PM

R342, I totally disagree—you are way oversimplifying this. I think most DLers are beyond pissed that, although more people voted for her, Russians helped give the election to a total turd who may end up killing us all yet, let alone bankrupt the country and turn back the clock on gay rights.

And if there are Hillary supporters living in Flyoverstan, fighting with their deplorable family, more power to them. But I bet they’re not close to being the majority here.

Back to Joe Biden—I cant wait till he debates Dump. Dump keeps declining mentally, but I think his supporters don’t see it much.. Meanwhile, Joe’s just lying in wait, and I’m sure mentally he’s way beyond the task. They’re expecting Dump to massacre Joe, and it will be the other way around.

by Anonymousreply 344July 16, 2020 2:11 PM

The aggressive outrage, and total bullshit was not as ubiquitous before Fox. Fox packaged it all neatly and clearly so the spin wouldn't be so obvious to the gullible. They unified conservatives and are in large part the designer of the narrative.

by Anonymousreply 345July 16, 2020 2:12 PM

I didn't say most DLers R344

I said most of the hardcore Hillary Stans

by Anonymousreply 346July 16, 2020 2:13 PM

R345, before fox there was the fairness doctrine that forced news outlets to do boring things like real fair and balanced news analysis. Fox made sensationalism a for-profit business.

by Anonymousreply 347July 16, 2020 2:17 PM

R346, I still disagree. I’m a hard core “stan,” but I don’t fit your profile at all. (Liberal family, living in a major NE city.) I still think you’re oversimplifying. But truthfully, although I liked Hillary a lot, most of my stanning is rooted in the idea that the presidency was stolen from her by a turd and a foreign government.

by Anonymousreply 348July 16, 2020 2:21 PM

Fox is but a pebble in the ocean compared to Facebook. 4 million viewers versus 1 billion on FB. I listened to two dolts yesterday talking about not taking a Covid vaccine because it would include some kind of government chip to track you. They heard it on Facebook.

by Anonymousreply 349July 16, 2020 2:25 PM

So do you think she bears any fault R348 and do you completely reject the notion that, rightly or wrongly, millions of people who normally vote for Democrats (and were not BernieBros) despised her?

by Anonymousreply 350July 16, 2020 2:29 PM

What does that matter, r348? We were discussing Hillary stans in Flyoverstan on DL. I gave you my opinion, and what you just posted is another discussion that’s been done to death, especially on DL.

by Anonymousreply 351July 16, 2020 2:47 PM

^ oops I obviously meant r350 at my post at r351.

by Anonymousreply 352July 16, 2020 2:48 PM

It matters R352 because generally Stans are not aware enough to realize they are Stans and I wondered if you met the Stan-dard

by Anonymousreply 353July 16, 2020 3:05 PM

I like Hillary. I'd vote for her again if I could. She was almost too qualified for the job. But, unfortunately and for whatever multitude of reasons, she is highly divisive -- even within the democratic party. I think the recent primaries have shown that.

by Anonymousreply 354July 16, 2020 3:06 PM

R353, it doesn’t matter because I was talking about your assumption about stans in Flyoverstan, which I disputed with my own example. You introduced the other stuff. I said I don’t give a flying fuck. It wasn’t what I was talking about in the first place.

by Anonymousreply 355July 16, 2020 3:09 PM

YouGov: 38% of voters think Trump will win, 37% sat Biden will win

by Anonymousreply 356July 16, 2020 3:19 PM

^ now THAT’S a remnant of 2016 election thinking.

by Anonymousreply 357July 16, 2020 3:40 PM

It's important to remember that Hillary did win the 2016 election. The candidate with the most votes is the winner. Trump was declared the winner because of our antiquated electoral college system. He won the EC because Russia hacked the voting machines and changed vote totals.

by Anonymousreply 358July 16, 2020 4:00 PM

I think people are so jaded by 2016 that they won't believe it until they see it. Evidence is all over this thread.

by Anonymousreply 359July 16, 2020 4:08 PM

Why is that important or even relevant, R358?

SHE DIDN'T WIN!

by Anonymousreply 360July 16, 2020 4:08 PM

[quote]He won the EC because Russia hacked the voting machines and changed vote totals.

People say that on DL all the time, but I don't remember ever seeing any evidence of it. Can someone provide links?

If you ask me, Hillary lost because of James Comey - no more, no less.

by Anonymousreply 361July 16, 2020 4:11 PM

It's very important to remember more Americans wanted Hillary to be President than Trump r360. If for no reason than that annoys Trump.

by Anonymousreply 362July 16, 2020 4:12 PM

Hillary could have had 10 million more votes than Trump and she would have still lost based on the way we elect presidents in this country. This is why I'm hoping that if Biden wins and we get a democratic Senate and the House continues to be lead by a democratic majority that they take the first two years to focus on an ambitious agenda of changing things like the electoral college. Just do a rocket docket of sweeping change legislation. And this is coming from someone who is a moderate. My fear is that we take everything and then do what democrats always do and play it cautious. The next election is important, but make the change while you can.

by Anonymousreply 363July 16, 2020 4:20 PM

[quote]It's very important to remember more Americans wanted Hillary to be President

Why? It didn't happen. SHE LOST!

Look... my point here is why lament, moan and groan about Hillary? SHE DIDN'T WIN! Nothing that anyone says here can change that.

We had better concern ourselves with this election and getting Biden in. I don't care about what anyone says but that episode with twitter yesterday was a test run for something!

There's no evidence that the Russians got into the voting machines R361--and it has never fully been investigated. HOWEVER, there is evidence that the Russians got into voter rolls of a few States and caused confusion.

by Anonymousreply 364July 16, 2020 4:21 PM

You get rid of the electoral college through legislation r363, it would require a constitutional amendment.

by Anonymousreply 365July 16, 2020 4:21 PM

Yes R365 but it either has to start in Congress or, I think 2/3 of state legislatures.

by Anonymousreply 366July 16, 2020 4:28 PM

2/3 of states will not vote to abolish the electoral college. It would be giving up electoral power. Never gonna happen

by Anonymousreply 367July 16, 2020 4:43 PM

R367 unless Texas turns blue a few cycles and then the republicans will be racing to get rid of the electoral college

by Anonymousreply 368July 16, 2020 4:47 PM

[quote] It's very important to remember more Americans wanted Hillary to be President than Trump [R360]. If for no reason than that annoys Trump.

Donald Trump. Frequent Datalounge visitor.

SMH

by Anonymousreply 369July 16, 2020 5:18 PM

The funniest part of the H-Stans "But her Electoral College" argument is that until around 9PM the night of the election, the Electoral College was the Blue Team's BFF and that pundits were basically saying "given the Blue Wall of states in the electoral college, once She wins Florida, we can call the election."

There are more deep blue states than deep red ones and that number is only going to keep growing as deep red states turn light red and purple.

by Anonymousreply 370July 16, 2020 5:21 PM

R358 is a complete idiot.

by Anonymousreply 371July 16, 2020 5:27 PM

There is not going to be a Constitutional amendment to eliminate the Electoral College. All that’s needed to stop an amendment from passing is the legislatures of 16 small states voting against it. And they will.

by Anonymousreply 372July 16, 2020 5:35 PM

R341 And also, after 8 years of Democratic administration, a Democrat did win the popular vote in 2000. So the conventional wisdom about the electorate/(electoral college) wanting a change of parties after two terms wasn't true in 2000 and 2016. Two popular Democratic presidents. Bush Jr was lurking in the low 30s in approval ratings in his second term and Obama won big in 2008.

Demographics and the voters' agreements on policy have trended Democratic for decades... that is as demographics change, as the American electorate changes, it would suggest that more Democrats would be elected, except for 1) voter suppression, 2) the Electoral college favoring less populated states and 3) an incredibly successful gerrymandering in favor of Republicans in the last couple years. Another reason why 2018, with more Dem governors and increased Dem-controlled state legislatures, is so important - ready to adjust state and federal district boundaries that have favored Republican candidates.

Democrats usually trend 6-10% above Republicans in the generic "who do you favor" polls.... but that's not reflected in the House or the Senate.

by Anonymousreply 373July 16, 2020 5:47 PM

[quote]We were discussing Hillary stans in Flyoverstan on DL.

that dreary subject AGAIN??

by Anonymousreply 374July 16, 2020 5:48 PM

Lest we forget as well, the only Republican to win the popular vote since 1988 (over 30 years ago!) was Dubaya, and I think he only won because of 9/11.

by Anonymousreply 375July 16, 2020 6:43 PM

And, R375, Dubya only won in 2004 because of Ohio, thanks to the Republicans there and their MASSIVE voter suppression and other shenanigans. In my opinion the jury is still out on whether he really won Ohio.

by Anonymousreply 376July 16, 2020 6:49 PM

This man stole the election for Trump........ Ken Blackwell from Cincinnati.

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by Anonymousreply 377July 16, 2020 7:11 PM

MMPH.....

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by Anonymousreply 378July 16, 2020 11:04 PM

Antigay Marriage Amendments got baby Bush re-elected. He won Ohio because of it

by Anonymousreply 379July 16, 2020 11:21 PM

So they should put trans bathroom rights on the ballot to get him re-elected?

by Anonymousreply 380July 16, 2020 11:33 PM

They better hurry

by Anonymousreply 381July 16, 2020 11:45 PM

Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections! Just think about that. That's why Republicans have employed every dirty trick they can think of to keep Democrats from voting in key states. They even resorted to hacking voting machines in 2016 to keep Hillary from being president.

by Anonymousreply 382July 16, 2020 11:50 PM

R341 & R373, that's a valid point and it shows that there is some flexibility in how analysts interpret the "8-year rule." However, it's important to note that in both 2000 & 2016, there was still a drop in popular support -- Gore's winning margin in 2000 was still less than Bill Clinton in 1992 & 1996, and Hillary's winning margin in 2016 was less than Obama's in 2008 & 2012. So despite the popular vote wins, there was still some desire for change in the electorate after 8 years.

by Anonymousreply 383July 17, 2020 12:09 AM

20 states voted for Trump by at last a 10% margin. 13 states voted for Hillary by at least 10%. There are significantly more deep red states than deep blue states.

by Anonymousreply 384July 17, 2020 12:10 AM

[quote]So they should put trans bathroom rights on the ballot to get him re-elected?

This is exactly why Warren cannot be on the Presidential ticket. Because she will make sure that trans bathrooms become a front-and-center issue...causing Democrats to lose in swing states.

by Anonymousreply 385July 17, 2020 12:20 AM

“20 states voted for Trump by at last a 10% margin. 13 states voted for Hillary by at least 10%.”

Uh yah sure, you fucking 1/2 wit fascist.

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by Anonymousreply 386July 17, 2020 12:34 AM

SIgh

The total number of ELECTORAL VOTES IN DEEP BLUE STATES IS GREATER than the number of votes in Deep Red ones.

Not the total number of states.

SMH

SMH

SMH

by Anonymousreply 387July 17, 2020 12:35 AM

^ I was just going to point out how meaningless that statistic about the number of red states is in a presidential election; thanks everyone for pointing that out. Trolls be trolling on here tonight.

by Anonymousreply 388July 17, 2020 12:37 AM

**ARIZONA**

New poll today from OH Predictive Insights

BIDEN (49%)

TRUMP (44%)

[600 Likely Voters, July 6th - July 7th, 2020]

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by Anonymousreply 389July 17, 2020 2:35 AM
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by Anonymousreply 390July 17, 2020 2:49 AM

Dave Wasserman:

Biden is ahead by 9.1% in today's @FiveThirtyEight average. Bottom line: Trump would need to close that gap by at least 5 points to be highly competitive in the race for the Electoral College.

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by Anonymousreply 391July 17, 2020 2:57 AM

R383 There was some credible criticism of how Gore ran in 2000. Although VP he tried to distance himself from Uncle Bill. At the time there was an assumption he was doing that because of the blow job thing. But also, I think, he was doing the "look to the future, not to the past" play.

I do think it was a mistake. Clinton was very popular. The dot com bubble, a budget surplus for crying out loud. I think he could have had 1-2% more in FL if he'd used Bill more, and more wisely.

2016? I think we still don't completely know what happened. Hillary hate ,first woman, etc. should surely affect the conventional analyses.

by Anonymousreply 392July 17, 2020 3:52 AM

Gore did win Florida.

The Supreme Court stopped the vote.

by Anonymousreply 393July 17, 2020 3:59 AM

I mean the Supreme Court stopped the counting of the votes. My mistake.

by Anonymousreply 394July 17, 2020 4:02 AM

R393 Well, so he didn't become President. My point if he'd won FL by 1 or 2 points, no SCUSA, no hanging chads, no rabid Republicans (that Ur-Tea Party energy, rushing in the the Sec of State office, remember? Foreshadowing Donny.) And just think, just think of how Gore would have handled the response to 9/11. Perhaps a million innocent Iraqis might still be alive.

by Anonymousreply 395July 17, 2020 4:14 AM

nobody should relax. nobody should relax at all, but damn, it's starting to settle in: Trump sucks. It's starting to become a thing. I think he might be in Jimmy Carter territory. Carter was a much better person in every way, but at some point the narrative started to settle in: He sucks. I think that is happening to Trump.

by Anonymousreply 396July 17, 2020 4:32 AM

Headlines like the following must be killing him (From CNN);

Trump's refusal to lead is making the pandemic worse

The US is fighting the worst domestic threat since World War II. But the President wants to talk about dishwasher reform.

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by Anonymousreply 397July 17, 2020 4:52 AM

He just sucks at the job. It is the big honking unavoidable fact of this year. He just sucks at the job.

by Anonymousreply 398July 17, 2020 4:53 AM

can you imagine loving Donald J Trump? Can you imagine respecting the bitch? Can you imagine wanting him to be president? The fuck.

by Anonymousreply 399July 17, 2020 4:58 AM

Are Democrats having a convention this year? I think they should try to do something online. Maybe have the cast of Hamilton perform a number.

by Anonymousreply 400July 17, 2020 5:06 AM

ya know, just having Hamilton perform a number might not be a bad idea. This is a Fuck You Trump Election, and that might be just fine.

by Anonymousreply 401July 17, 2020 5:12 AM

LOL "Gay men suggest 'put on a musical at convention!' Other gays suggest 'tasteful floral arrangements' and stress need for 'a pop of color!;

News at 11

by Anonymousreply 402July 17, 2020 6:38 AM

To your point R396, while the number of Republicans who support Trump remains very high, the percentage of voters of self-identify as Republicans is shrinking rapidly and there is now a double-digit advantage for the Democrats.

According to Gallup, at link, that sort of gap is very unusual and very recent.

Oh, and Mary Trump's book is breaking all sorts of sales records

As has been stated here ad infinitum, Trump was an unkown quantity in 2016 and many voters were willing to give him a shot. He had managed to put his massive ego aside enough to perform the job of reality TV show host without much drama, e.g., he mostly did what the network executives asked him to do, so there was an assumption he'd do what McConnell et al wanted him to do.

That theory has been proven false and then some and so he's losing all those voters, plus motivating Democrats who, as also previously noted here by many others, will "crawl over broken glass" to vote him out of office this year.

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by Anonymousreply 403July 17, 2020 6:46 AM

[quote]Trump was an unknown quantity in 2016

Perhaps to the uninformed.

by Anonymousreply 404July 17, 2020 10:02 AM

Trump favorability among white Americans with a four-year college degree dropped 13 percentage points, from 45% in May to 29% today.

PRRI poll

07.16.2020

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by Anonymousreply 405July 17, 2020 10:44 AM

Right on, r404.

Anybody who wasn't blinded by their Hillary Hatred, hell, an astronaut then in Orbit, could see that Trump had no business being anywhere within 100 miles of the Oval Office.

I'm so sick of the excuses for voting for Trump.

It boils down to sheer mysogyny and being too damn lazy to look at Trump's bio, see 4 bankruptcies, business deals that wouldn't bear close scrutiny, not releasing his taxes, "pussy grabbing, birtherism, and the list goes on.

Then Trump voters and now Biden voters, Welcome to the Cause, but please stop with the shallow rationalizations you've concocted for voting for the despicable Trump.

by Anonymousreply 406July 17, 2020 11:33 AM

What Della and r404 said. The only surprise was the level of depravity.

by Anonymousreply 407July 17, 2020 11:39 AM

People didn't want to vote for Hillary and told themselves Trump would not be so bad.

He was an unknown quantity as a politician.

by Anonymousreply 408July 17, 2020 11:41 AM

On the bright side however, this just in:

The Post-ABC poll shows 38 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the outbreak, down from 46 percent in May and 51 percent in March. Sixty percent disapprove, up from 53 percent in May and 45 percent in March.

More than half of the public — 52 percent — now disapproves “strongly” of Trump’s handling of the outbreak, roughly double the percentage who say they strongly approve of his efforts and an increase from 36 percent in strong disapproval since March.

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by Anonymousreply 409July 17, 2020 11:42 AM

[quote]He was an unknown quantity as a politician.

He was a know quantity as a human being (or subspecies thereof (very, very sub)).

by Anonymousreply 410July 17, 2020 11:48 AM

Biden should be ahead by 100 points!! WTH cannot see the treasonous disaster that Trump has been?! How is it possible that, after massive unemployment, hundreds of thousands dead or seriously afflicted by Covid-19, murderous cops, etc., etc., Trump can still make millions of Americans afraid of a Biden Presidency?!

Joe's slogan who should be a Trump one: "Vote for me! What have you got to lose?!"

by Anonymousreply 411July 17, 2020 11:54 AM

You need to get over yourself R410

It's good news,.

Many people who talked themselves into voting for Trump last time are not going to make the same mistake again

It means he's losing.

by Anonymousreply 412July 17, 2020 11:59 AM

^ I agree r412. Yes we still have bitter feelings about 2016, but it’s four years later, and we have to be united in voting for Biden and welcome others as well. We know they made a mistake—hell, THEY know they made a mistake—but browbeating them and continually reminding them does no good.

by Anonymousreply 413July 17, 2020 12:18 PM

Since Trump is sabotaging himself at every turn, Republican toadies in the Senate are taking up the mantle of attacking Uncle Joe:

The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, chaired by the execrable Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), is eyeing subpoenas for current and former advisers to Joe Biden as part of an investigation into the former vice president’s son.

by Anonymousreply 414July 17, 2020 12:28 PM

[quote]It boils down to sheer mysogyny and being too damn lazy to look at Trump's bio, see 4 bankruptcies, business deals that wouldn't bear close scrutiny, not releasing his taxes, "pussy grabbing, birtherism, and the list goes on.

We are not a country that dives deep. We are a soundbite country. All people knew was that he was the "you're fired guy" and so-called billionaire, and a so-called successful businessman. And he struck a nerve with a certain segment.

And on Chris Hayes last night (I was half watching) he was talking about some new data out that shows that Trump supporters support him and not necessarily the republican party. Which explains why every republican, except Mitt, is terrified of him.

by Anonymousreply 415July 17, 2020 12:55 PM

PollTroll, that math at r405 doesn't work.

by Anonymousreply 416July 17, 2020 1:02 PM

Fortunately Ron Johnson is a moron, so they'll probably just step all over their own dicks.

by Anonymousreply 417July 17, 2020 1:40 PM

[quote]they'll probably just step all over their own dicks

Pics please.

by Anonymousreply 418July 17, 2020 1:45 PM

In other Trump-foot-shooting-related news, Laura Ingraham doesn't seem to know that Toronto is actually in Canada

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by Anonymousreply 419July 17, 2020 2:01 PM

Yes, we’ve heard, R408.

by Anonymousreply 420July 17, 2020 3:28 PM

That's funny r419. What a dumbass.

by Anonymousreply 421July 17, 2020 8:28 PM

oh, dear. Even Fox News fed up.

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by Anonymousreply 422July 17, 2020 8:47 PM

[quote] I'm so sick of the excuses for voting for Trump.

There is something fundamentally wrong (psychologically/emotionally/spiritually) with anyone who supports him at this point. I’m willing to concede that many voted for him in 2016 out of ignorance/stupidity. But no one can use that excuse today.

by Anonymousreply 423July 17, 2020 8:51 PM

true, r423, and I have family members I know and love that are going to vote for him. It's weird and pathetic and idiotic, but there it is. They will make this fundamentally stupid decision in November, and it is making me lose respect for them every day.

by Anonymousreply 424July 17, 2020 9:02 PM

Why not cut them out of your life R424? Because ultimately when they vote for Trump, they are voting against you. Assuming that you're gay.

by Anonymousreply 425July 17, 2020 9:19 PM

I am gay, and I get that. Do you really find it easy to completely cut people out of your life like that, r425? I guess I don't.

by Anonymousreply 426July 17, 2020 9:34 PM

I don’t want to be the type of person that cuts people out of my life. I value relationships

by Anonymousreply 427July 17, 2020 9:48 PM

I have to say, I am so, so, so lucky that my immediate family and friends are liberals/Democrats who hate Dump. That saying, I don’t know how I’d handle it if they weren’t. I feel for you, r424. I think 10 or even 5 years ago, the lines were more blurred.

by Anonymousreply 428July 17, 2020 10:33 PM

"it is making me lose respect for them every day"

I have the same type of family myself and I while I agree that I refuse to cut them out of my life - I do let them know exactly what you wrote (which is precisely how I feel also). Vocal disappointment can be a far sharper knife than vitriol. And I mean every word of it; I honestly assumed that they were better people than that. My part is being honest with them, making myself very clear on the subject matter and then moving on to other topics. When they start the conversation again (and they always will) - it's open season. Needless to say, our relationships are more strained in the last decade than before. Thanks Fox "News"!

by Anonymousreply 429July 17, 2020 10:35 PM

[quote]PollTroll, that math at [R405] doesn't work.

You're right, R416 -- it should say 42% instead of 45%:

Trump favorability among white Americans with a four-year college degree dropped 13 percentage points, from *42%* in May to 29% today.

by Anonymousreply 430July 17, 2020 10:57 PM

[quote]Do you really find it easy to completely cut people out of your life like that, [R425]?

I could send you a couple of thoughtful, illustrated brochures on the subject.

by Anonymousreply 431July 17, 2020 11:21 PM

Dave Wasserman:

New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 432July 17, 2020 11:25 PM

#Alaska Presidential Polling:

Trump (R): 49% Biden (D): 48%

Alaska Survey Research / July 7, 2020 / n=663 / MOE 3.9% / Telephone/Online

by Anonymousreply 433July 18, 2020 1:06 AM

I think Democrats largely distrust these rosy polls. A lot of my progressive friends scoff at these polls as 1) way too soon to predict what will happen in November; 2) dangerous causes of overconfidence that will suppress Democratic voters; and 3) jinxes that will tempt fate to yet again humble those who foolishly assert Trump can’t win re-election.

by Anonymousreply 434July 18, 2020 4:40 AM

What would your progressive friends be saying if Joe Biden were losing by 10 points in these polls, R434? Would they still say that it’s too soon to predict what will happen in November? Would they say that the polls were wrong in 2016 and Biden might actually be winning? That Biden needs the benefit of the doubt and we’ve got to keep supporting him?

I highly doubt it.

by Anonymousreply 435July 18, 2020 10:58 AM

It depends upon the person, but many would say Democrats need to try to get more liberal-leaning people to register and to vote. We still aren’t registering and energizing people who never or seldom vote.

by Anonymousreply 436July 18, 2020 1:51 PM

[quote]Do you really find it easy to completely cut people out of your life like that, [R425]? I guess I don't.

I learned years ago to remove toxic people from my personal life, even when that includes family, for my own personal well being.

I understand that it's not easy and I don't expect everyone to be like me, but you are not doing yourself any favors by keeping people in your life who only "tolerate" you. And make no mistake, that's what they're doing. You're getting a family pass, but they really don't support you. Just because you share DNA with people, it doesn't mean they are family.

But you do what you need to do for you. I'm just an anonymous poster on a gay message board. I don't know your life. Good luck to you!

by Anonymousreply 437July 18, 2020 2:16 PM

Cool post r437. I wish I knew you.

by Anonymousreply 438July 18, 2020 2:48 PM

R436 One of the internal "truths" in these recent trends reflected by the polls... Biden is increasing support among those most likely to vote - certainly the over 65 vote... but also college-educated white voters. And increasing already strong support among most reliable voters - women of color.

There was a Politico article a week ago that tracked the "enthusiasm gap" (which, of course, correlates to turnout) as a problem for Trump. Our unchallenged notion that "Trump's base" is so loyal and unshakeable, may not be entirely true. Biden's supporters very, very motivated to vote.

The greatest threat, at this point, is 1) voter suppression, making it difficult to vote and 2) legal challenges to election results because of invented "irregularities." A clean election, with no voter suppression .... Trump will lose.

by Anonymousreply 439July 18, 2020 4:57 PM

Biden’s huge task is to secure and seal the deal with white voters who have not been very inclined to vote Democratic in the modern era. A lot of pundits are skeptical Biden can retain this level of support among white and elderly voters in the fall when the full force of Republican attacks are unleashed on Biden, and Republicans make the election into a culture war.

by Anonymousreply 440July 18, 2020 5:08 PM

Elderly voters want to live. The Republicans have effected abandoned them. First, by undercutting Social Security and the ACA. And more dramatically, by letting Covid run free. I don’t think those voters are doing a 180 because of some random culture war bullshit. Their lives are at stake.

by Anonymousreply 441July 18, 2020 5:19 PM

So far the hate Biden campaign isn't working, and it's Trump's only hope. Trump sucks and most of the country can see it, so there has got to be a Hate Biden campaign. You all are right that they will open up with both barrels between now and November. But where there was a decades long Hate Hillary campaign for them to tap into in 2016, they're still floundering around trying to find some perfect Hate Biden gimmick, and they haven't yet. He wants to Defund the Police will probably fall flat. So next, well, not sure.

by Anonymousreply 442July 18, 2020 5:26 PM

[quote] So far the hate Biden campaign isn't working

How do you come to this conclusion?

by Anonymousreply 443July 18, 2020 5:29 PM

Because it obviously hasn't dented his lead. If anything, Biden's lead in the polls is widening.

by Anonymousreply 444July 18, 2020 5:57 PM

I guess it's more of a feeling, having lived through 2016. All those Lock Her Up chants and But Her Emails stories. There was a passion there, a Get Hillary passion from both the Trump campaign and the news media. Joe Biden seems more of an afterthought in this election. He's there, but it's really a Fuck You, Trump! election. In fact, I think they still go back to the Lock Her Up stuff sometimes because Trump is a moron slipping into senility and can only remember the old hits. They just haven't found a good Hate Biden theme to catch on. Hunter Biden was supposed to be the magic ticket, but Trump fucked that up, as he fucks everything up, and besides his own family is so ridiculously corrupt that it probably was never going to work anyway.

by Anonymousreply 445July 18, 2020 6:00 PM

I misunderstood you, r444. Carry on.

by Anonymousreply 446July 18, 2020 6:04 PM

Many DLers still have a tough time wrapping their heads around this, but there was something about Hillary that made all the propaganda stick. I could not tell you what that is, but it's the reason some flamboyant gay kids are mercilessly teased throughout childhood and others become "the funny gay guy" and everyone's friend.

Or to put it another way--for some reason many people had no trouble believing that Hillary ran a child porn ring out of a pizza parlor in Washington. I cannot see them believing that or anything remotely comparable about Biden.

Trump's been trying to push the "Biden is senile" bit, but given his own mental condition, that may well boomerang on him.

by Anonymousreply 447July 18, 2020 7:47 PM

People do not like to admit they've been duped and so many 2016 Trump supporters, while disgusted with him, did not want to admit their mistake.

But his mishandling (to put it mildly) of both COVID and BLM give them the perfect out and I believe that his "base" is shrinking steadily and will continue to shrink unless something disastrous happens.

Given that we appear to be on track for much more COVID death and economic destruction, particularly in red states where governors and citizens don't believe in science, it's likely that will not happen and Biden and the Democrats will sweep.

by Anonymousreply 448July 18, 2020 7:50 PM

R443 - likely he came to that conclusion because every poll says that Trump is losing by a LANDSLIDE??

by Anonymousreply 449July 18, 2020 8:08 PM

But if the NBC poll is correct, Biden’s personal favorability ratings now are almost as bad as Trump’s. Although Biden is well ahead on the head-to/head matchup, I want to know why Biden’s favorability ratings have declined mid summer. Certainly Republicans are studying it and will keep sliming him in the areas that may be eroding his favorability ratings

by Anonymousreply 450July 18, 2020 8:17 PM

but it won't matter nearly as much, r450. Trump is the president. This is, despite all the moaning and squirming and scrounging and pretending, a referendum on how much Trump has sucked and what we need to do about it.

by Anonymousreply 451July 18, 2020 8:33 PM

That's one poll R450

I'll consider it a trend when other polls show the same thing

by Anonymousreply 452July 18, 2020 8:36 PM

Interesting take from Anne Applebaum in the Atlantic on Trumpists

[quote] For some people, loud advocacy of Trump helps to cover up the deep doubt and even shame they feel about their support for Trump. It’s not enough to express tepid approval of a president who is corrupting the White House and destroying America’s alliances and inflicting economic catastrophe on the country: You have to shout if you want to convince yourself as well as others. You have to exaggerate your feelings if you are to make them believable.

by Anonymousreply 453July 18, 2020 9:16 PM

That is interesting YMF. And incidentally, are you undercover these days? Seems you were a lot more active a few months ago.

by Anonymousreply 454July 18, 2020 9:17 PM

**SOUTH CAROLINA**

New poll from Gravis Marketing

- Trump leads Biden by only 4 points

- Miss Lindsey leads Harrison by 7 points

[604 Likely Voters, Jul 17, 2020]

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 455July 18, 2020 10:35 PM

^Well... that's a disappointment

by Anonymousreply 456July 19, 2020 12:14 AM

yeah, need Miss Lindz to go, but you know the South. So damn stubborn.

by Anonymousreply 457July 19, 2020 12:16 AM

[quote]Many DLers still have a tough time wrapping their heads around this, but there was something about Hillary that made all the propaganda stick. I could not tell you what that is, but it's the reason some flamboyant gay kids are mercilessly teased throughout childhood and others become "the funny gay guy" and everyone's friend.

It’s just like how some celebrities have an intangible “it” factor that makes them likeable and appealing no matter what they do. They just have it.

Well, Hillary has an intangible “smarm” factor that makes people irritated and repulsed the more they see and hear from her. It doesn’t matter how qualified she is. She just has that quality about her, she just does.

by Anonymousreply 458July 19, 2020 1:07 AM

yeah, I thought a lot of it was deeply unfair, but I will admit, there was something r458. some big thing that made a lot of people deeply dislike Hillary. Never felt it, but clearly a lot of people did.

by Anonymousreply 459July 19, 2020 1:08 AM

But whatever that was, it ain't work on old Uncle Joe. The Republican playbook has run into a deadend. They don't know what to say, and the most effective ads this cycle seem to be coming from the Lincoln Project, which always make Trump look like the douche he is.

by Anonymousreply 460July 19, 2020 1:26 AM

DAMN! These people go for the jugular!

The latest (released a half hour ago)

Wall

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 461July 19, 2020 1:30 AM

[quote]yeah, I thought a lot of it was deeply unfair, but I will admit, there was something [R458]. some big thing that made a lot of people deeply dislike Hillary. Never felt it, but clearly a lot of people did.

She can walk into a board room full of men and kick every single one of their asses and make them feel small because they were whupped by a girl.

Many women judt didn't like her because she wasn't feminine enough. Heck! Even Leona Helmsley had her soft side... only for Harry. A good contemporary of Hillary's (because she is hated too) would be Linda Wachner, former CEO of Warnaco

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by Anonymousreply 462July 19, 2020 1:39 AM

yeah, it's ironic. I think Hillary had total Maggie Thatcher energy. the kind of woman who could whip a country into shape. But that energy can definitely turn men into scared little bitches. It has to work, or not work. No in between. And I thought we needed Hillary when we needed her. But it didn't work out.

But Biden doesn't have any of that struggle. He's just there, and the alternative is the shittiest president in the history of this country.

by Anonymousreply 463July 19, 2020 1:45 AM

Silly Stans

People who hate Hillary do NOT see her as a strong Thatcher-like woman.

They see her as an entitled snob, drafting off her popular and well-liked husband, someone who only cares about herself and will say anything just to get ahead.

It's not fair and it's not right but that's why people hate her.

by Anonymousreply 464July 19, 2020 2:48 AM

Graham won his last election by 15 points, that's a quite bad poll for him r456.

by Anonymousreply 465July 19, 2020 2:53 AM

Agreed, R465.

Graham and Trump are both underperforming in South Carolina. Trump won SC by 14 points 4 years ago, so to be leading Biden by only 4 points is a big drop.

Plus, Gravis usually leans Republican, so it's possible that other pollsters will produce worse numbers for Graham & Trump.

by Anonymousreply 466July 19, 2020 3:07 AM

Ahem...

Professor's model predicts Trump having 91% chance of winning re-election

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 467July 19, 2020 3:07 AM

Then it must be so, r467.

What happened when people said Clinton had over 90% chance of winning 4 years ago?

by Anonymousreply 468July 19, 2020 3:10 AM

[quote]Norpoth said the model uses information from early presidential nominating contests and the enthusiasm each candidate receives early on in the nominating process.

Well, then he must be right. The enthusiasm for Trump this year has been overwhelming.

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by Anonymousreply 469July 19, 2020 4:11 AM

Damn, R461. That Wall ad from The Lincoln Project is damning. They’re good.

by Anonymousreply 470July 19, 2020 4:36 AM

New ABC / Washington Post Poll:

Biden +10 in LV, +15 in RV.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 471July 19, 2020 5:22 AM

The Clintons don't care about the appearance of impropriety. They do what they do with their own justifications because they believe they're right. They also don't give a shit because the assume (rightly) that the right will attack them regardless. So they barrel ahead. Conversely, because they don't care, false attacks stick.

Hillary was in the wrong with the emails. We're the emails safer on her personal server? Probably. Was that legal? No. She knew that. But would she admit wrongdoing? No.

That's the crux of the problem with the Clintons and why it was so easy to make everything stick to Hillary.

They can't pull that off with Biden, but they're trying.

by Anonymousreply 472July 19, 2020 7:50 AM

Harry Enten:

[quote]We've seen two live interview polls this week that have Biden +15 among registered voters. The other live interview poll had Biden +11. The downward trend for Trump in these polls can be directly tied to a declining approval of him on coronavirus.

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by Anonymousreply 473July 19, 2020 9:10 AM

From the new ABC/Washington Post poll:

* Biden bests Trump on six of seven attributes and on three of four issues measured in the poll.

* Biden is more trusted on the pandemic, race relations and crime & safety; Trump narrowly leads on the economy.

* Biden leads on temperament to serve as president, likely to do more to unite the country, better understand “problems of people like you, more honest and trustworthy, better representing “your own personal values” and having a better idea of what America should stand for.

* Biden and Trump are tied on the question of who is seen as the stronger leader.

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by Anonymousreply 474July 19, 2020 9:28 AM

[quote] Biden's lead in the suburbs is reflective of him doing significantly better than Hillary Clinton. Four years ago at this time, Trump was beating Clinton by a 45% to 35% margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll among suburban voters. [bold] In other words, we're looking at nearly a 20-point improvement for Biden versus where Clinton was at this point in the 2016 campaign. [/bold]

by Anonymousreply 475July 19, 2020 11:44 AM

If the election was held today Biden would win, it's not debatable. Hopefully things look this good in a few more months.

by Anonymousreply 476July 19, 2020 11:49 AM

r461's posted Lincoln Project spot is classic, ruthless, no-restraint, GOP political attacks at their apex.

Aside from the anomalous LBJ classic "Daisy" campaign spot, Repugs always have gone for the jugular while Dems wrung their hands about whether to "Go There", on the belief that American voters would hold them to a different standard and with it, backlash against them, a thing they wouldn't do against Repug "Go There" spots.

It's kind of a back-handed hollow compliment, if you think about it. Voters expect better from Dems, not Repugs, but fuck that.

Repugs never fell for the bullshit Americans would say when polled about their feelings about "negative ads". They always knew Americans like the sound and experience saying they dislike negative ads, but the research and facts say otherwise- "Go There" ads, if done skillfully, work like gangbusters.

"Willie Horton, "Swift Boat Veterans" (I'm convinced Kerry lost because he didn't respond quickly and forcefully to those), just off the top of my head come to mind.

The Lincoln Project anti Trump Repug ads are excellent and effective, however, now, instead of aimed at Dems, they're aimed at their one of their "own", albeit they would argue Trump was never a Republican.

That's what makes them so distinct-seeming, but really, it's business as usual for them.

by Anonymousreply 477July 19, 2020 1:51 PM

NEW @FoxNews poll

President Biden - 49% (+8) Trump - 41%

Do they have the mental soundness to serve effectively as president?

Biden Yes - 47% (+8) No - 39%

Trump Yes - 43% (-8) No - 51%

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 478July 19, 2020 1:58 PM

YASSS!

Let's go, JOE!

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by Anonymousreply 479July 19, 2020 2:21 PM

ABC News: Joe Biden leads Pres. Trump on trust to handle the coronavirus pandemic by a 20-point margin, 54-34%. The two had been virtually tied on the issue in late March.

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by Anonymousreply 480July 19, 2020 2:25 PM

Biden's appeal is that he's a straight white male, and they can do no wrong. The democrats chose Biden because they didn't think America was ready for a woman President, a latino President, or a gay President. In a way, they've bought into the time worn philosophy that to be "Safe" you need a straight white male and not rock the boat. The sad irony in this is that if the party thought like this in 2008, Obama would not have been elected. We would have missed out on one of the best Presidents this country had, and Biden wouldn't have gotten the position that would allow him to the Presidential candidate today.

So many made their minds up from the start that Biden was the only person who could win this, so they refused to budge. We had tremendous candidates who ran excellent campaigns and ran circles around Biden in the debates, and the best they got was that they could be a good VP because they didn't check off all the boxes. Several other candidates had such a passion and energy surrounding their campaigns. I agree with those who say that Biden is almost like an afterthought in his own campaign. It is what it is at this point, but the Biden fangurls acting like he came in and blew everyone away is just fiction at its best.

Of course Biden will be a good President, because he will surround himself with a good cabinet and a good VP. It really isn't about Biden, but about the future of the democratic party. That's his one best asset. To know that he needs to bring in younger people with fresh new ideas.

by Anonymousreply 481July 19, 2020 2:57 PM

Because people understand the only thing that matters is getting rid of Trump r481, all other concerns are secondary right now. Biden is the right candidate for this election. An easy known quantity that grandma's feel safe voting for.

by Anonymousreply 482July 19, 2020 3:12 PM

Exactly R482 - R481's complaints might have been valid in a pre-Corona, pre-Floyd world but right now people want That Nice Joe Biden who feels their pain and can be counted on to put the right people in place.

He might even do amazing things-- FDR was not a particular firebrand but rose to the occasion. LBJ was a corrupt Texas politician who pushed the most comprehensive civil rights legislation ever. So you never know.

I think of Biden as an American Adenauer, a solid steady leader to bring the country back after a fascist regime nearly destroyed it.

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by Anonymousreply 483July 19, 2020 3:20 PM

[quote]The sad irony in this is that if the party thought like this in 2008, Obama would not have been elected. We would have missed out on one of the best Presidents this country had, and Biden wouldn't have gotten the position that would allow him to the Presidential candidate today.

What is Biden going to do with this platform? Empower a woman by making her the vice president and a future leader of the party.

by Anonymousreply 484July 19, 2020 3:28 PM

The one lesson that progressives have not learned is that you need a moderate voice to advocate for progressive reform. This is why progressives were stupid to turn their backs on my man, Pete. Pete is quite progressive, but he figured out how to moderate his tone and some of his positions to be electable.

by Anonymousreply 485July 19, 2020 3:34 PM

This is so important because suburban voters are reliable voters and they don't face the voting restrictions that urban minority voters do:

"A look across the latest polling has Biden winning in the suburbs by north of 15 points on average. No Dem in the modern era has won the suburbs by double-digits, save maybe Johnson in 64. It would be a historic win."

--Harry Enten

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 486July 19, 2020 3:40 PM

Presidential Favourabilities:

Biden: Favourable: 54% (+1) Unfavourable: 43% (-1) Net: +11

Trump: Favourable: 43% (-) Unfavourable: 56% (-) Net: -13%

Fox News / July 15, 2020 / n=1104 / MOE 3% / Telephone

(% chg w June 20)

by Anonymousreply 487July 19, 2020 3:55 PM

3.5 months can’t come fast enough

by Anonymousreply 488July 19, 2020 3:55 PM

R485, yes, yes, yes. That is exactly true. Most people in the middle—and that’s actually most people in the electorate—want progress, but they do not want drastic change. We are a nation of more than 300 million people. One of Obama’s points, equating the US to a big ship, was that you don’t turn a ship like that on a dime. You have to make 3-4 degree incremental changes in the direction you want to go. The progressives in the party provide the vision, but the leadership cannot—and must not—push the country too far too fast. Most people are very uncomfortable with drastic change, and they don’t want it. I say this as someone who’s very progressive—I want universal healthcare, I want strong social safety nets, etc.

by Anonymousreply 489July 19, 2020 4:08 PM

Joe Biden is versatile. He's simultaneously the greatest communist threat since Stalin, a mindless drone who will do whatever AOC says, a raging liberal, a centrist democrat, and a Republican. This is his strength

by Anonymousreply 490July 19, 2020 4:26 PM

[quote]3.5 months can’t come fast enough

Mail-in ballots start in the next 40 days. It's likely that most people vote early this year because of the coronavirus.

by Anonymousreply 491July 19, 2020 4:27 PM

[quote]Mail-in ballots start in the next 40 days

I hope they actually get delivered.

by Anonymousreply 492July 19, 2020 4:54 PM

Apparently R481 has been living in a cave since 2016, emerged briefly in January 2020, then decided to live under a rock.

by Anonymousreply 493July 19, 2020 5:06 PM

"People who hate Hillary do NOT see her as a strong Thatcher-like woman.

They see her as an entitled snob, drafting off her popular and well-liked husband, someone who only cares about herself and will say anything just to get ahead."

Well.... It's basically accurate.

by Anonymousreply 494July 19, 2020 5:10 PM

Harry Enten is visibly creaming his pants in every one of his tweets predicting Trump's loss. Don't get so excited, Harry!

by Anonymousreply 495July 19, 2020 5:32 PM

Chris Christie threw a hail Mary to Republicans this morning. He said that he is seriously looking at another POTUS run om 2026

by Anonymousreply 496July 19, 2020 5:36 PM

I think you meant 2024 for Chris (Krispy Kreme) Christie.

by Anonymousreply 497July 19, 2020 5:43 PM

[quote]Chris Christie threw a hail Mary to Republicans this morning. He said that he is seriously looking at another POTUS run om 2026

That isn't a presidential election year, so he probably won't do very well.

by Anonymousreply 498July 19, 2020 5:43 PM

Larry Hogan (Maryland Governor) is also making moves for a 2024 Presidential run. Not that I think he has a chance in hell of winning the GOP nomination.

by Anonymousreply 499July 19, 2020 5:46 PM

[quote]There was a Politico article a week ago that tracked the "enthusiasm gap" (which, of course, correlates to turnout) as a problem for Trump.

Although many Trump supporters insist it's the other way around, citing polls that show that Trump supporters are more enthusiastic to vote for Trump than Biden voters are to vote for Biden. That's likely true but what they ignore is the reverse side of the coin: how many of the voters on each side are enthusiastic to vote [bold]against[/bold] the other candidate? There the story is reversed, and it's not even close. Far more Democratic voters are enthusiastic about voting against Trump than Trump supporters are to vote against Biden.

[quote]Professor's model predicts Trump having 91% chance of winning re-election

They trot out shit like that every election and it's all bullshit. Every single one of those "models" suffers from the same problem: insufficient data. And every single election you have models that predict each side will be the winner. Those stories are a complete waste of time. And yes, I've said, and will continue to say, exactly the same thing about models that predict a Biden win. The model in this case makes the fundamental mistake I noted above:

[quote]and the enthusiasm each candidate receives early on in the nominating process.

Note that the model does not include a reading on the enthusiasm of voting [bold]against[/bold] the other candidate.

Regarding the attempts to slime Biden not working:

[quote]How do you come to this conclusion?

Parscale launched his so-called "Death Star." It hasn't budged Biden's lead. So far, the Trump campaign has spent over $600 million. It hasn't budged Biden's lead. Trump has been tweeting, using his press conferences and his rallies to rail against Biden, launching ridiculous attack after ridiculous attack. It hasn't budged Biden's lead.

This election will be a referendum on Trump, not on Biden, as is almost always the case when a President is up for reelection. And, so far, the voters are saying loud and clear that they don't think Trump deserves another term.

[Insert usual disclaimer that there are still a few months to go, a lot can change between now and then, including external events that neither candidate can predict or has any control over.]

by Anonymousreply 500July 19, 2020 5:47 PM

As in what R496?

"That fat fuck is going to try and run for president in four years, we'd better re-elect Trump so that doesn't happen?"

by Anonymousreply 501July 19, 2020 5:49 PM

[quote]Pete is quite progressive, but he figured out how to moderate his tone and some of his positions to be electable.

Well, no, clearly he didn't.

by Anonymousreply 502July 19, 2020 5:55 PM

[quote]I want to know why Biden’s favorability ratings have declined mid summer.

It's simple: they haven't. You should always use the polling aggregates, not just the single polls. And Biden's numbers have been roughly tied to a bit negative in favorable vs. unfavorable for months. If I wanted to cherry-pick, I could claim that Biden's numbers were moving in the positive direction, with a CNBC poll in May that had him at -17 (36% favorable to 53% unfavorable), while the same poll in June had him 8 points better, at -9 (41% to 50%).

Now maybe that new NBC/WSJ poll is showing a move towards the unfavorability side that other polls will be picking up but, for now, anyway, it's an outlier. If you look at the polls cited in the link below, there are a lot of outliers, in both directions, since the beginning of the year. Favorability is a highly volatile metric.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 503July 19, 2020 5:58 PM

Someone on this thread is wearing out my WW button

by Anonymousreply 504July 19, 2020 6:01 PM

Republicans 2024 - a contest among, Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, Nicki Haley, Pence, Tom Cotton, Christie, Kanye

Democrats 2024 - Joe Kennedy, Hakeem Jefferies, Val Demmings, AOC, Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, Keisha Bottoms (variables include who Biden's VP is... if it's Warren, I think she's not running in 2024 - if it's Harris et. al, they are)

Scenario if we fuck up in the next 6 months: The Leader-for-Life Trump of the Second American Republic appoints his daughter to be Second VP.

by Anonymousreply 505July 19, 2020 6:06 PM

POLLTROLL: Should there be concern that Biden dropped 4 points in the FoxNews Poll? Last poll had him up 12.

by Anonymousreply 506July 19, 2020 6:08 PM

We have to see what other polls say

by Anonymousreply 507July 19, 2020 6:12 PM

That is why it’s stupid to fixate on polls in July. People overinterpret every speck up data in these polls. It’s friggin July! The polls will fluctuate every day for the next 100 days. Stop the madness

by Anonymousreply 508July 19, 2020 6:13 PM

Ironic as fuck, Make America Great Again should be Joe Biden’s campaign slogan.

by Anonymousreply 509July 19, 2020 6:13 PM

R508, just want to point out that this thread was started to fixate on polls. It is a continuation of threads that fixated on polls.

by Anonymousreply 510July 19, 2020 6:18 PM

R510 Furthermore ... god forbid in the most consequential election of our lifetimes we should actually focus on the state of the race.

by Anonymousreply 511July 19, 2020 6:22 PM

That local 12 link is nothing but propaganda.

Channel 12 in Cincinnati is Sinclair media. All lies and propaganda. The news anchor and the sports anchor (long time, respected people) quit after Sinclair wanted them to start reading lies and propaganda.

Sinclair and channel 12 is just lies. Fux noise for white trash who can't afford cable. Don't believe anything on that website. It's all lies and propaganda.

by Anonymousreply 512July 19, 2020 6:43 PM

[quote]POLLTROLL: Should there be concern that Biden dropped 4 points in the FoxNews Poll? Last poll had him up 12.

R506, it could just be noise (normal fluctuation) since most other polls show Biden widening or maintaining his lead. We'll have to wait and see what more polls show. Fox is an A- pollster, but ABC/Post is an A+ pollster.

by Anonymousreply 513July 19, 2020 9:12 PM

My FB friend keeps bragging that the ‘silent majority’ will turn out to re-elect Trump. It’s funny how they refer to themselves as ’silent’ because they are always the biggest loudmouths.

by Anonymousreply 514July 19, 2020 9:29 PM

Harry Enten:

Also of note, the latest ABC News/WaPo poll has Biden by 9 in the suburbs... The same poll 4 years ago at this point (just before the RNC) had Trump by 10 in the suburbs. That's a 19 pt move towards Biden in the suburbs.

Offsite Link
by Anonymousreply 515July 19, 2020 9:35 PM

[quote]My FB friend keeps bragging that the ‘silent majority’ will turn out to re-elect Trump.

The silent majority in 2016 were the suburban voters and undecideds who went for Trump. The polls make it clear that those are going for Biden this time.

by Anonymousreply 516July 19, 2020 9:39 PM

[quote]The silent majority in 2016 were the suburban voters and undecideds who went for Trump

They actually constituted a minority.

by Anonymousreply 517July 19, 2020 9:47 PM

I think the suburbanites have shifted. May be wrong, but something happened in 2018, and I think it will happen in 2020. Suburban women have decided Trump is an asshole, correctly, I believe.

by Anonymousreply 518July 19, 2020 9:52 PM

[QUOTE] Also of note, the latest ABC News/WaPo poll has Biden by 9 in the suburbs... The same poll 4 years ago at this point (just before the RNC) had Trump by 10 in the suburbs. That's a 19 pt move towards Biden in the suburbs.

😂 What a bad day for the Eeyore Brigade. They’re desperate for anything to show some sort of Trump comeback so they can tell us how “concerned” they are for Biden, yet there’s NOTHING for them to grasp and present as evidence of his impending collapse. It’s the 2020 Dem primary all over again. Teflon Joe, aka Comeback Joe, aka Scranton Joe, aka Mighty Joe Biden continues marching toward victory and America is right behind him. We’re hungry for presidential leadership and Joe is our man.

It’s Biden time. 😎

by Anonymousreply 519July 19, 2020 10:06 PM

The silent majority is neither.

by Anonymousreply 520July 19, 2020 10:34 PM

[quote] Suburban women have decided Trump is an asshole, correctly, I believe.

I don't know if I agree with that.

Well, there could be a silent majority. I don't mean to offend anyone BUT I do NOT TRUST white women--particularly the suburban white woman. They're just as much into white privilege and supremacy as their white male counter parts. Just look at all of the "Karens" It has been the white women who have sat back (generally speaking) while their health rights and equal rights are under attack and have done very little to fight for their own rights.

White woman went overwhelmingly for Trump. They couldn't even support Hillary (and yes, I know Hillary had her issues) and be vocal enough to let it be known why. They just went into the booth and pulled the lever for Trump.

I don't trust them....

I think that they could be the silent majority.

by Anonymousreply 521July 19, 2020 10:56 PM

[quote]White woman went overwhelmingly for Trump. They couldn't even support Hillary (and yes, I know Hillary had her issues) and be vocal enough to let it be known why.

Most of them were voting against Hillary. They didn't like Trump either, but figured he'd become more Presidential and wouldn't screw things up too badly. They now see that they were wrong.

by Anonymousreply 522July 19, 2020 11:05 PM

What R522 said.

by Anonymousreply 523July 20, 2020 12:18 AM

I'm a senior and I don't want to be killed by Trump's incompetence.

by Anonymousreply 524July 20, 2020 12:19 AM

MeidaTouch already cut an ad out of the Chris Wallace interview

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by Anonymousreply 525July 20, 2020 12:19 AM

I just finished watching that Trump interview with Chris Wallace. What a mess that was!

by Anonymousreply 526July 20, 2020 12:52 AM

This is how it starts

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by Anonymousreply 527July 20, 2020 1:37 AM

Wow r527, another EXCELLENT ad from the Lincoln Project.

Who would have thought that the BEST anti-Trump ads being made for this campaign would be coming from a bunch of REPUBLICANS?

by Anonymousreply 528July 20, 2020 4:18 AM

I forget where I read it, but some Republican donors recently had a dinner where they talked about who they were going to support after Trump. Around the same time, Christie gave an interview talking about running in 2024. He didn't say he would run... but yeah, he's going to run. He's staking out that [Republican] center lane for himself. In the center, Christie, possibly Hurd. In the anti-Trump lane, Hogan. [Hogan and Christie both made noises about running in 2020, but they got shut down.] In the far right, Cotton, Cruz, Haley, possibly Scott. In the do-not-pass-go lane, Rubio, Pence. The earlier these folks can gain some momentum with donors, the tighter they can keep the clown car door closed.

There could be some celebrities, but this time around, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP shut that shit down quickly. It would only take a rule change, that the Republican nominee must have served at least one full term in elected office. No Kanye, No Tucker, No businessmen, No Congress freshmen who haven't served a full term. The donors might find that reassuring.

by Anonymousreply 529July 20, 2020 5:18 AM

I'm okay with Christie being the best they have to offer. Even if that FatAss won he'd never be as bad as Trump. He actually has experience as a politician. But he's such a sweaty FatAss joke, he won't make it past a primary.

by Anonymousreply 530July 20, 2020 5:25 AM

Before Trump, Christie couldn't win a primary because he wasn't racist / hard right. After Trump, he may be the most comfortable option for the party. At the very least, they know what they're getting.

by Anonymousreply 531July 20, 2020 5:31 AM

Trump is so bad that the corrupt, inept, and nasty Christie is greeted with a sigh of relief. "Phew, back to normal levels of corruption and incompetence!"

by Anonymousreply 532July 20, 2020 6:14 AM

[quote]I'm a senior and I don't want to be killed by Trump's incompetence.

Then maybe you shouldn't have voted for him in 2016 you idiot.

by Anonymousreply 533July 20, 2020 9:30 AM

Christie is NOT acceptable. He is not so center. He ran New Jersey corruptly and terribly. But he’s loud and brash so he’s the only one who appeals to the base they might accept. Republicans will never go back to your Hogans or Romneys. They are boring to them.

by Anonymousreply 534July 20, 2020 6:46 PM

No way that fat fuck's gonna win.

by Anonymousreply 535July 20, 2020 7:05 PM

The October Surprise looks to be the Oxford coronavirus vaccine. They expect to have it available by the first part of October.

I'm not sure how much it will help Trump, but it might help him a little by making the virus less of an issue. It's being developed in the UK, so he can't take credit for it.

by Anonymousreply 536July 20, 2020 7:33 PM

A vaccine will not erase his awful, terrible response and total incompetence. Over 50% of voters do not want 4 more years of this.

by Anonymousreply 537July 20, 2020 7:42 PM

A vaccine developed in the U.K. is not going to magically race Trump's appalling mishandling of the pandemic nor his constant attempts to sweep it under the rug.

by Anonymousreply 538July 20, 2020 7:42 PM

And polls mean so fucking much....NOT.

by Anonymousreply 539July 20, 2020 7:43 PM

That is assuming that many people actually believe the vaccine will work.

There will be massive skepticism at first.

by Anonymousreply 540July 20, 2020 7:44 PM

R539 = HRC

by Anonymousreply 541July 20, 2020 7:44 PM

We responded at the same time, R537.

by Anonymousreply 542July 20, 2020 7:45 PM

I didn't vote for Trump. I voted for Johnson.

by Anonymousreply 543July 20, 2020 7:45 PM

R537, it’s Democrats’ job to competency make that case. I am not convinced they can make it

by Anonymousreply 544July 20, 2020 7:52 PM

The early data from the Oxford Vaccine look promising which is great. That doesn't mean a vaccine ready for public use by October though, o wish, but that's seem like a pipe dream. Even if everything goes perfect I can't see one being deployed til next year.

Regardless, I don't see it affecting the election either way. I'm not sure why that poster brought it up here.

by Anonymousreply 545July 20, 2020 7:54 PM

R543 same thing

by Anonymousreply 546July 20, 2020 7:58 PM

The Oxford vaccine, if it is proven to work, won't be available until early next year, at best.

by Anonymousreply 547July 20, 2020 8:11 PM

The team developing the Oxford vaccine said it would most likely be available the first part of October. Medical workers and the elderly will be the first to receive it. The UK has already ordered 100 million doses.

I'm just glad that the UK is coming to market with the first vaccine so Trump can't take credit for it.

by Anonymousreply 548July 20, 2020 8:36 PM

[quote] I didn't vote for Trump. I voted for Johnson.

I love how you think that is somehow different or even better.

by Anonymousreply 549July 20, 2020 8:40 PM

To be the clear r548, the best possibility is it could get approved for "emergency use" by October. When something is approved for emergency use it is only the people who are most at risk who are able to take a product as it is still considered experimental because there isn't enough data yet.

There is no real possibility there will be enough data for it to get approved for real until 2021.

by Anonymousreply 550July 20, 2020 8:56 PM

[quote] I'm not sure why that poster brought it up here.

Here's a hint

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by Anonymousreply 551July 20, 2020 9:12 PM

R548 R550 Of course Trump will take credit for it. If there's even remotely good news about this or any vaccine by October, Trump and the Fox News/Völkischer Beobachter machine will crank out encomnia praising Trump's leadership that solved the worst crisis in our history.

Hail Great Leader.

by Anonymousreply 552July 20, 2020 10:56 PM

Germany has a vaccine.

by Anonymousreply 553July 20, 2020 10:58 PM

Do they even know how long the vaccine is good for?

by Anonymousreply 554July 20, 2020 11:28 PM

[quote] Over 50% of voters do not want 4 more years of this

I learned from the Nov 2016 election results that what the electoral college voters want is valued more than a smidgen over 50% of US voters

This year I would like:

the US adult citizens who didn't register to vote yet were eligible to in 2016, to register if they have not already;

the US registered voters to check their registration status, to ensure they are on the voter rolls;

fewer 'faithless voters' to cast votes for third party or independent Presidential candidates. Americans to tell each other why voting is important;

by Anonymousreply 555July 20, 2020 11:45 PM

October 26, 2016. Clinton leads Trump by 14%

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by Anonymousreply 556July 21, 2020 2:12 AM

Read the whole thing R556 "Conducted after the final presidential debate"

As in the polls shot up quickly.... and then sunk back down.

Biden's numbers have been steady as Trump self-immolates and his decision to send the Gestapo to Chicago, Oakland and other cities is going to blow up in his face as well.

by Anonymousreply 557July 21, 2020 2:20 AM

[quote]The team developing the Oxford vaccine said it would most likely be available the first part of October.

Eh, they can't even say yet if it will provide long-term immunity or just seasonal short-term like the flu vaccines.

by Anonymousreply 558July 21, 2020 2:30 AM

Yawn r556. Please learn the difference between a single poll and the polling average. If you are going to troll, troll properly.

by Anonymousreply 559July 21, 2020 2:52 AM

Trump is literally sending troops to pull protesters into unmarked vehicles in democratic run cities, just because he can't fucking run a reelection campaign.

by Anonymousreply 560July 21, 2020 2:56 AM

I'll go ahead and concern troll, because I really am worried that Trump will us the protests as a pretext to disrupt the elections. Maybe he thinks if he causes enough chaos in large Democratic cities that he can suppress enough votes to win.

by Anonymousreply 561July 21, 2020 3:33 AM

This is nothing like 2016 at all, so stop posting that shit.

1. Attitudes towards Trump are hard. There is no benefit of the doubt anymore.

2. Biden is not Hillary.

3. Pollsters this year have adjusted for education, which actually slants things towards Trump.

4. There is only one issue that matters for this election: COVID. That's it. We're 4 months into this pandemic and it's worse now than ever before. This falls squarely in Trump's shoulders. By November we will be looking at 250,000 dead, if not more. Once schools go back, it's going to be pandemonium.

by Anonymousreply 562July 21, 2020 7:43 AM

Morning Joe is talking about it’s foolish to get confident based on polls in July. They noted that voter suppression efforts will be a huge factor this year, and Democrats need all hands on deck to register and motivate our voters to actually turn out.

by Anonymousreply 563July 21, 2020 11:41 AM

Sending the Gestapo to random cities is going to blow up in his face.

Suburban voters are all home, far from the cities and do not feel threatened in the least.

by Anonymousreply 564July 21, 2020 11:55 AM

New York has had no demos for weeks. Absolutely no reason to send the troops here unless it is to provoke a reaction which he can exploit politically or worse. If he does I hope it backfires bigly, like being forced to resign by his own party. This is fascist shit.

by Anonymousreply 565July 21, 2020 1:57 PM

R561 I'll concern troll right along with you then, because this is really happening, right out of the Nazi playbook.

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by Anonymousreply 566July 21, 2020 2:00 PM

He's tweeting about #RIGGEDELECTION but he did that in 2016 as well and it turned out all the rigging was done in his favor.

by Anonymousreply 567July 21, 2020 2:17 PM

Yep, polls can and will change. But multiple polls over time reveal trends. Internals in polls give more nuanced information about demographic differences in those trends.

The most significant groups of 2016 Trump voters who have trended away from him now: white college educated and seniors. I'm not sure that Trump is likely to do anything truly effective to change those shifts. Seniors especially - covid and mortality got their attention.

His best strategy is getting high turnout of those still supporting him, suppress voters of groups likely to oppose him, and challenge the legitimacy of the election.

by Anonymousreply 568July 21, 2020 2:47 PM

Trump’s Approval Keeps Sinking

A new American Research Group poll finds President Trump’s approval at a record low 36% to 60%.

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by Anonymousreply 569July 21, 2020 2:57 PM

I’ll never understand the purpose behind telling us how polls can change and they aren’t important yaddah yaddah. It’s always in response to people feeling good about positive numbers for Biden. So what is it that these people want us to do, exactly? NOT feel good? Is it my fault that random selections of voters from all over the country keep saying they prefer Biden over Trump? What on earth should we do instead, pretend the numbers don’t exist?

And of course we all know damn well we wouldn’t be asked to proceed with caution regarding polls if they showed Trump up by 10 points. No, then there’d be sheer panic leading to calls to dump Biden at the convention, not any of this “Well polls aren’t everything” bullshit.

by Anonymousreply 570July 21, 2020 3:02 PM

Trump Job Approval Down

A total of 36% of Americans say they approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president and 60% say they disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. In June, 38% approved and 58% disapproved.

When it comes to Trump's handling of the economy, 38% of Americans approve and 58% disapprove. In June, 40% approved and 58% disapproved.

Among Americans registered to vote, 36% approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president and 60% disapprove. On Trump's handling of the economy, 38% of registered voters approve and 59% disapprove.

Of the 36% saying they approve of the way Trump is handling his job, 61% rate the national economy as excellent, very good, or good, 49% say the national economy is getting better, 90% say they expect the national economy to be better in a year, 81% rate the financial situations in their households as excellent, very good, or good, 27% say the financial situations in their households are getting better, and 71% say they expect the financial situations in their households will be better in a year.

Of the 60% saying they disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job, 80% rate the national economy as bad, very bad, or terrible, less than 1% say the national economy is getting better, 30% say they expect the national economy to be better in a year, 78% rate the financial situations in their households as excellent, very good, or good, 4% say the financial situations in their households are getting better, and 16% say they expect the financial situations in their households will be better in a year.

The results presented here are based on 1,100 completed interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of adults July 17 through 20, 2020. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Overall, 36% of Americans say that they approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, 60% disapprove, and 4% are undecided.

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by Anonymousreply 571July 21, 2020 3:05 PM

Do DL's concern trolls honestly believe that the Democrats will not spend the two weeks before the election essentially driving home the message "We were complacent in 2016, we let our guard down, we can't afford to let that happen again, crawl over broken glass to get out and vote?"

Well?

by Anonymousreply 572July 21, 2020 3:13 PM

[quote]And of course we all know damn well we wouldn’t be asked to proceed with caution regarding polls if they showed Trump up by 10 points.

That's the difference between Republicans and Democrats. If every poll was showing Biden losing by double-digits, we'd all be Googling how to become a Canadian citizen right now. There would be no "but it's early" or "I don't trust polls" talk. We'd be in state of sheer panic.

What is it about Democrats that make them so afraid of their own shadow? It's like they don't really want to win.

by Anonymousreply 573July 21, 2020 3:15 PM

R572, Democrats have a long history of turning victory into defeat.

by Anonymousreply 574July 21, 2020 3:22 PM

Democrats have a long history of having wins taken from them.

There, fixed it for you, r574.

by Anonymousreply 575July 21, 2020 3:25 PM

What’s this narrative about Dems snatching defeat from victory? Looking back at electoral history, Dems have done quite well on the presidential level, held the House for over 40 years and held the Senate for most of that time as well.

Also, be very fucking happy we are in the position we’re in with polling. Imagine the other way around? We aren’t taking anything for granted.

by Anonymousreply 576July 21, 2020 3:55 PM

[QUOTE] Also, be very fucking happy we are in the position we’re in with polling. Imagine the other way around? We aren’t taking anything for granted.

I think some of these folks WISH it was the other way around. They’d love to be on DL filling up threads with armchair diagnoses about all the things the Dems are doing wrong, all the reasons Trump is winning and all the reasons why we can’t defeat him in November. They prefer to be curled up in the fetal position. That’s where the Eeyores shine. But their plans have been sabotaged by the Coronavirus and Joe Biden’s savvy operation. When everything is going right, they don’t know how to behave.

by Anonymousreply 577July 21, 2020 4:09 PM

R577 Damn straight! Fuck those bellyachers. We’re in excellent position and I’m enjoying it.

by Anonymousreply 578July 21, 2020 4:12 PM

Let us not be complacent. Let us act like we're the underdogs. Then, when we win, let us gloat without restraint and wreak a radical vengeance on the Republicans who have come so close to destroying American liberty, security, and prosperity.

by Anonymousreply 579July 21, 2020 4:14 PM

Yes, let’s not be complacent. To the poster above who said “I’m satisfied with great poll numbers and don’t plan to actually vote on November 3rd,” you need to cut it out, mister!! Thanks for setting us straight, R579.

by Anonymousreply 580July 21, 2020 4:17 PM

I think Biden will win, Dems may even gain in the House, and its a tossup (favoring Repub) in Senate.

Cool. Whatever that is, its better than Trump. And whoever is saying "I'm not voting" is a plant, like so many here.

I'm then more concerned about the first couple years being so lame and lacking response (without the Trump jingoism to try to distract/make up for it) that the House is lost, Senate stays Repub, and too many of the public turns at least passively against a Biden that apathetically doesn't do nearly enough to overcome that. A first term of Obama (which had all its plusses, but not in the regard I'm talking about), but much worse, that leads to two 1-term presidents in a row just out of spite towards Dems.

Then there's all the signaling, honest or not, that Biden would commit to stepping aside for a better candidate, so he sorta runs things for a couple years, hands off to better minds for the next couple, and someone else runs for 2024. I might be up for that depending on if I actually like what's next. I'm only 'up' for Biden compared to the alternative and nothing more; he's just another thing of 2020 that sucks, even if he sucks less than so much else.

disclaim: a canadian who cares

by Anonymousreply 581July 21, 2020 4:21 PM

[quote] And whoever is saying "I'm not voting" is a plant...

I got this covered.

by Anonymousreply 582July 21, 2020 4:46 PM

[quote]Democrats have a long history of having wins taken from them. There, fixed it for you, [R574].

And so, who do you blame for this?

Democrats stand idly by and whine while Republicans steal a Supreme Court seat. While Justice Ginsberg hasn't even taken her last breath and Republicans are already taking applications for her seat and making it quite known that they will fill it.

by Anonymousreply 583July 21, 2020 5:01 PM

What can they do exactly? The Republicans only need a simple majority, 51 votes, to confirm a SC Justice, and they have that. We can scream No! as much as we want, but they can just go on ahead without us.

by Anonymousreply 584July 21, 2020 11:38 PM

Exactly

by Anonymousreply 585July 22, 2020 12:31 AM

[quote]If there's even remotely good news about this or any vaccine by October, Trump and the Fox News/Völkischer Beobachter machine will crank out encomnia praising Trump's leadership that solved the worst crisis in our history.

Unfortunately, none of Trump's deplorable, anti-mask, anti-science supporters even believe in vaccines, let alone are going to take one themselves.

by Anonymousreply 586July 22, 2020 1:18 AM

George Will will not only vote for Joe Biden but predicts a Biden declarative win by 11PM/ET

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by Anonymousreply 587July 22, 2020 5:31 AM

But George still gets it wrong. He's still a conservative and can't see what horrendous damage Reagan did to the US, and says it's the job of the loyal opposition to try and stop the other side's programs. No, it's his job to do what's best for the country, not to sit in opposition "just because".

by Anonymousreply 588July 22, 2020 7:28 AM

David Rothkopf

[quote]I think America is pretty much "conventions schmenventions, who needs 'em, who needs the campaign, let's just vote and kick this methane-inflated decaying orange cow to the side of the road where he belongs."

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by Anonymousreply 589July 22, 2020 12:08 PM

I hate that being cautious is called being a Debbie Downer. Even Kamala said it last not on Joy's show. "We haven't won this election, yet" and "Four months is a lifetime in political campaigns". People should be happy with the current polling, but treat it like we're nine points behind instead of nine points ahead. And please, please don't get discouraged when/if the polls tighten after Labor Day.

by Anonymousreply 590July 22, 2020 12:15 PM

[quote]But yeah, if El Shithole loses like he's probably going to in November, and if he refuses to leave, then President Biden will remove him. If he deems the military necessary, that'll be up to him, but we imagine a trail of Big Macs leading out into the middle of Pennsylvania Avenue would do the job just as easily, and Big Macs are only $3.99 and Pennsylvania Avenue is right in front of the White House so that'd be a much more Fiscal Responsibility way to do it.

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by Anonymousreply 591July 22, 2020 12:51 PM

This short teaser video has got me all verklempt.

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by Anonymousreply 592July 22, 2020 4:30 PM

New Texas poll- Biden 45%, IT the clown 44%. Quinnipiac

by Anonymousreply 593July 22, 2020 9:49 PM

Dave Wasserman:

Big difference from 2016: in this poll, Trump leads TX's college+ whites 49-42.

In 2016, by my estimates, Trump carried them 61-33.

This is a massive suburban defection.

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by Anonymousreply 594July 22, 2020 11:11 PM

New thread:

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by Anonymousreply 595July 22, 2020 11:28 PM
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