The Dow Down Bigly: I Had The Biggest, Fastest and Best Drop to Zero Than Any President Ever -- DJT

FAIL

How low will it go? It's fun seeing the number keeps dropping.

Bloomberg’s team is already getting these ads ready once the emergency ends. Now Trump has fucked with his money.

[quote]How low will it go?

Dow 15k just to get the air out of the bubble. Then discount further for this whole virus debacle. Then discount further for over-correction to the downside. See you there!

Buffett said around a 50% drop, so that would put it at around 15k, r2. So, if he's right, we're close. And I hope he's right because the alternative is ugly.

Well the market was already approximately 100% overvalued as it was, not even taking into account the virus. So additional discounts need to be taken for this shit-storm we're currently in.

I wonder if the reason they haven't closed the floor yet is because that's going to make people even more nervous.

I would think too that it gives companies a means to access capital in an emergency. Not that I would do a secondary right now, but if it had to be done, well...

in the last 3 years honestly there hasn't been a big increase in value of stocks. It's been more about consumers feeling like the economy is much better so they've been buying more. Now it's come crashing back down as people aren't spending except at grocery and convenience stores

Well, not a bad comeback at the end there. The futures markets should be interesting tonight.

[quote]in the last 3 years honestly there hasn't been a big increase in value of stocks.

You don't consider 19k to 29k a big increase??

R11 not talking about the price of stocks. That was based on consumer confidence. I'm saying it was superficial and not based on confidence that the economy was so much better than when Trump took office.

[bold]Stocks Hit 3-Year Low, Oil Tumbles; Dollar Surges: Markets Wrap[/bold]

Financial markets spasmed, sending U.S. stocks to the lowest in three years, Bloomberg’s dollar index to a record and oil down 24%, as the economic fallout from the pandemic outpaced the massive response from governments and central banks.

The S&P 500 fell as much as 9.8%, tripping a trading halt. The Dow Jones Industrial Average wiped out all the gains logged since Donald Trump took office, with investors craving more government spending to offset the impact from the virus.

Bonds tumbled around the world a day after Treasuries notched biggest yield jump since 1982, and municipal bonds extended the deepest rout since 1987 as markets braced for the potential flood of spending. Oil sank to an 18-year low. The dollar strengthened a seventh straight day. The pound hit its lowest level against the greenback since 1985. Dollar-funding markets remained strained, although improved from extreme levels in recent days. Checking the circuit breakers for the S&P 500

Trump offered few details at a press briefing on the specifics his Treasury secretary is discussing with Congress. The Federal Reserve dusted off crisis-era programs to stabilize financial markets.

Governments have pledged or are considering massive fiscal support to offset the economic shock from the pandemic, with the Trump administration moving toward a big package, but the virus continues to spread at a pace that is forcing massive shutdowns across the globe.

“The missing fundamental ingredient for a sustainable recovery in risk appetite is some evidence that the growth of global Covid-19 infection rates is peaking,” said Paul O’Connor, head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors. “Clearly, we are not there yet.”

The planned U.S. stimulus could amount to $1.2 trillion, aiming to stave off the worst impact of a crisis that already looks set to plunge many of the world’s economies into recession. Meantime, the Federal Reserve reintroduced additional crisis-era tools to stabilize financial markets. Those responses came after stresses appeared in the short-term funding markets.

“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet in terms of liquidity,” Mark Konyn, chief investment officer at AIA Group in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg TV. “It’s a question of when the fiscal measures will have the most efficacy.”

I mean other than the big tax break for the rich and big corporations, how has the economy changed since the Obama years? unemployment maintained the same trend. Salaries haven't gone up that much for the bottom 50%

He's gonna have to repeal that tax too.

In December 2018, I bailed on the market and moved 90% of my savings into CD's.

In October of 2019, I put my house up for sale and it sold within one days time.

Why have I done this? One word: Trump. The man is a complete and total jackass and everything he touches turns to shit. Ever since he took office, I had a feeling the shit was gonna hit the fan. It took three years, but by golly, the shit is hitting the fan, big time.

And still his rabid supporters think he's a fucking god.

r16, Bush II still had rabid supporters even after he almost crashed the global economy.

I almost liquidated when trump was elected, but I had too much capital gains. I did dump some at the end of 2018 and I dumped more when I read about the virus' effect on the supply chain. I'm still sitting on that cash.

The downward spiral is allowing me to sell out individual stocks at capital losses and move immediately into a total stock market ETF. I'm not going to try and time that money, I am selling low and buying low but I will be better diversified in the ETF.

I will wait a while to move the cash money back into the market, I don't have to hit bottom, I just have to buy at a lower price than I sold, and that shouldn't be too difficult.

Moving this over from part 2...

J.P. Morgan out with new GDP estimates:

Q1: -4%

Q2: -14% (not a typo)

Q3: +8%

Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5% overall.

Unemployment rate goes to 6.25% midyear, 5.25% in Dec.

—Anonymous

I'm about to go balls-to-the wall buying cruise line and casino stocks. I'm either gonna become very rich as a result or lose my ass and kill myself. YOLO!

I did that in 2008, r19. I bought Citi, BankAmerica, AIG, GM and Lehman. I lost on GM and Lehman but more than made up for it with the others. it took awhile with AIG.

ok DL financial gurus. Which stocks does one go all in on? (sorry I dont agree with Cruise Lines...dont see an impressive recovery there).

Exchanged one international fund for another. Taking the loss for tax purposes but staying in the market and bought another 10K. Could be foolish but will stick with what we know has happened before--the market will come back.

I'm curious about airline stocks

I'm looking at financials, REITS and energy. Cruise bothers me more than airlines. I think people are beginning to realize they are floating petri dishes so I don't see a sharp rebound.

This is so horrific on so many levels that people will most likely never cruise again in our lifetimes.

I would suggest doing research now on which sectors, spreading the money around to different stocks and waiting a while, we are still early in the downfall. Or, just buy an index fund and hold for the long run.

R26 does an index fund decays long term? i'm thinking of getting QQQ or SPY

I finally moved the last of my retirement funds into a safer bond fund today which probably means the market has bottomed. Prepare for the coming Covid-19 rally.

The outbreak has also now disrupted operations at institutions including the New York Stock Exchange, which said late Wednesday it will temporarily close its trading floor and move to fully electronic trading starting at market open March 23. The decision – which impacts the NYSE equities trading floor in New York, NYSE American Options trading floor in New York, and NYSE Arca Options trading floor in San Francisco – came after two individuals tested positive for COVID-19 during screenings launched at the exchange this week.

[quote]This is so horrific on so many levels that people will most likely never cruise again in our lifetimes.

Cruise ships didn't cause this. And look at the beaches in Florida during all of this...still packed full of stupid people! Never underestimate the stupidity of your fellow Americans.

[quote]does an index fund decays long term? i'm thinking of getting QQQ or SPY

r27, what do you mean by decay? Also, they are both ETFs and not mutual funds.

"This is so horrific on so many levels that people will most likely never cruise again in our lifetimes."

What? Where does flyover country spend their future vacations then?

[quote]Where does flyover country spend their future vacations then?

We will always have Branson. And Silver Dollar City.

Dow futures (YM=F) gained Wednesday evening after the European Central Bank announced a massive stimulus plan — a 750 billion euro ($818 billion) bond repurchase program.

Futures were initially down after the regular session Wednesday in which stocks took a drubbing as traders resorted to more panic selling amid the ongoing pandemic. The Dow dropped 1,338 points, or 6.3%, to settle below the psychologically important level of 20,000 for its lowest close since February 2017. The losses brought the Dow’s total declines since its Feb. 12 closing high to 32.7% – firmly in bear market territory.

[bold]Trump’s ‘signature’ stock market sinks like a stone as coronavirus crisis widens[/bold]

I. Am. LOVING. This.

So weird - right as I read r36 a McDonald's commercial played on my TV with that jingle. Ba-da-bump-bump-BA!

Carry on

McDonald's is actually one of the stocks I'm gonna be buying soon. Burn, baby, burn!

This is essentially a health crisis. The markets won't recover until there is sign that our leadership has it under control.

[quote] The markets won't recover until there is sign that our leadership has it under control.

Well, we're fucked.

It was the best ever! Thanks to Donald Trump.

For those who don’t recognize it, the great virus/Trump spot in R39 is a riff on the USSR/Reagan spot from 1980. The bear is an old symbol for Russia/USSR. It was effective for Reagan.

US stock futures trended lower during Asian trading hours Thursday, reversing gains. They had climbed significantly just a few hours earlier, when the European Central Bank announced an $821 billion economic rescue program aimed at keeping the financial system afloat during the coronavirus pandemic.

Dow (INDU) futures were last down 350 points, or 1.8%, erasing the gain of roughly 400 points reached earlier during Asia's morning. Nasdaq (COMP) futures also fell, last down 1.4% after earlier registering in the green. S&P 500 (SPX) futures fell 2%, also retreating from their gains.

Stephanie Ruhle on MSNBC just eviscerated Bill Ackman for the “stunt” he pulled on CNBC earlier today. She says he panicked the already panicked markets even further.

Listening to that interview again (it’s on Youtube) he sounds like a fucking nutcase.

Markets panic now because some random guy gives an interview on CNBC? Lol.

Dow futures are down 700+ points. Markets are down all across Asia from 2.5-6%. They may be past the worst of the outbreak but they’re dealing with a much bigger than expected economic hit.

Futures now down -1,338.46. trump must be shitting himself. This is worse than what Obama inherited. But trump has had 3 years to destroy the Federal Government's infrastructure so now he and we are totally fucked.

[quote]J.P. Morgan out with new GDP estimates:

Q1: -4%

Q2: -14% (not a typo)

Q3: +8%

Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5% overall.

How does this math work? It's -18%, then +12%, which would be -6% for the year?

Anyone who can go bankrupt operating a casino (a CASINO, FFS!), shouldn’t be trusted with the car keys

It goes down and it goes up. The election is a long way off. I’m thinking it’ll be up again and over 30,000 by October.

[quote]Futures now down -1,338.46

Where are you seeing that? They’re down 800 points.

Why do you think so r50 ?

r51, sorry that was today's close. Futures down 950 now.

A song for the Trump stock market:

[quote] R48: How does this math work? It's -18%, then +12%, which would be -6% for the year?

I don’t know how those number are reported; however, suppose an index is at 100, and loses 10%. That drops it to 90. It order to return back to 100, it now has to gain 11%. Why? Because 11% of 90 is 9.9, and 90%plus 9.9 equals 99.9, which is essentially 100. So, it loses 10%, then has to gain 11%, to get back to where it started. Perhaps the math is being calculated in this manner.

R44, what about that interview is nutty? It sounds exactly like what the CDC is saying, except without the prefixing everything with some form of “Thanks to the leadership of President Donald J. Trump ...”, “At the direction of the President...”, or some other toadying statement.

If all the newsreaders were making similar such statements, we might not have those idiots interviewed on Spring break saying that they were going to party and didn’t care if they got the virus and what that meant to the people they were going to infect.

Gdp is likely being calculated against the same quarter last year. Those are annualized rates, not quarterly.

So q2 gdp will be 14% lower than q2 2019, not 14% lower than q1 2020. At the end of December, gdp will be 1.5% lower than end of December last year.

That seems really optimistic to me

Trump hired an expert to give him advice on his casinos. The adviser told him he should not open three casinos at the same time. Trump fired him and the rest is Dummy Trump history.

Still a tad gloom and doom:

[bold]Dow Futures Slide, Dollar Holds Gains As Central Banks Pledge Trillions in Coronavirus Support And Global Recession Looms[/bold]

On Wall Street, where stocks are hovering at three-year lows after wiping out all of the gains recorded since President Donald Trump inauguration in January 2917, bargain-hunters are yet to provide for stocks amid the maelstrom of coronavirus uncertainty.

Still, with Trump pushing for a $1.2 trillion 'phase 3' relief package, and the Fed standing firm in money and inter-bank lending markets, futures suggest some cautious optimism Thursday, although that bid faded as the European session wore on.

Contacts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average now indicate a 140 point slip while those linked to the S&P 500 are suggesting a 12.4 point decline for the broader benchmark.

The CBOE's key volatility gauge, known as the VIX, was marked at 77.12, meaning options traders are pricing in a 77% chance that the S&P 500 will rise or fall by 77% over the next year -- around 5 points shy of the all-time high recorded in Monday's historic session.

Global oil prices, too, were bouncing from 18-year lows in early European trading following their worst single-day sell off in history Wednesday, as reports suggest the U.S. could intervene in the ongoing price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia in order to prevent large-scale damage to the domestic oil and gas industry.

Brent crude futures contracts for May delivery, the global benchmark, were last seen $2.29 higher from their Wednesday close in New York and trading at $27.24 per barrel, while WTI contracts for April delivery were marked $3.25 higher at $23.62 per barrel.

"Anyone who can go bankrupt operating a casino (a CASINO, FFS!), shouldn’t be trusted with the car keys "

And in true Trumpian style, it was all the state of New Jersey and Atlantic City's fault, and nothing to do with Trump or the Trump organization. The state and city failed to provide the proper economic environment, whatever the fuck that is.

NYSE has finally shifted into 100% online trading.

It doesn't look like today will be as bad as yesterday was, barring some kind of catastrophic news dropping. Futures are down after a lot of swinging overnight, but percentage wise Europe and Asian haven't been hit terribly.

That said, given the rate of catastrophic news...

...which the Department of Labor has just provided.

Why is it every time Trump goes on TV, the stock market goes up or down a thousand or two?

How can anyone bankrupt a casino? Isn't a casino basically a license to print money? How can anyone fuck that up? 3 times!

Looks like an orderly open.

IIRC, R64, he way overpaid for the Taj Mahal (cause he's an excellent deal maker!) and financed all or most of it and then just wasn't brining in the revenue to cover the interest on on the debt.

Stocks are dropping like a rock.

R64 almost all of Atlantic City casinos were/are struggling. AC fell out of style as Vegas built larger more dazzling casinos, with the huge caveat of warm weather. I think it should be noted that Trump couldn’t break into Vegas during the height of his fame, he had to settle for Atlantic City. But maybe I’m wrong about AC in the 80s.

We Call It Uninvestible’: Market Views After Another Rout

After twice seeing stocks on Wall Street tumble by the most since 1987 in recent days, market participants are largely averse to calling a bottom to the rout in global equities.

Investors are grappling in the dark on earnings estimates as authorities around the world shut down economic activity in an effort to avert a humanitarian disaster caused by the coronavirus. That’s overshadowing moves by economic policy makers to cushion the impact. With volatility expected to remain high, traders are on the lookout for more fiscal stimulus and, most importantly, evidence the outbreak is on the wane.

“When VIX is above 31, we call it uninvestible. The issue is that safe havens like gold or Treasuries can go down just with everything else. What you have to do is be very cautious about going into longs.” U.S. stocks volatility index soars to highest since 2008 crisis Room for De-Rating

“In order for a more lasting market rally, we believe that we need to see either an exceptional policy response, which has not happened yet, or more directly, we would need to become comfortable that the peaking out in the virus outbreak is at hand. This still seems to be quite far away, and things could get a lot worse before they get better.”

On stocks, “we note that markets lost more than half of their initial value during the last two recessions, versus current 20%. In addition, the last three recessions saw P/E multiples of 10.1x, 13.8x, and 10.2x at the low, while current P/E stands at 15.2x, and 14.5x at the recent trough on 12 March. There could be room for more de-rating from here.”

[quote]Vegas built larger more dazzling casinos, with the huge caveat of warm weather.

That word does not mean what you think it means.

And Trump bankrupted the taj not once...but twice.

It went from down 700 to being in positive territory.

Doesn't he intentionally go bankrupt so he doesn't have to pay taxes on any "gains"?

I seem to remember during the debates how proud he was on "playing the system" and winning.

r72 Due to a loophole in the tax law, Trump was able to claim a fake $916 million tax loss on his bankruptcies and carry it forward to avoid paying income taxes for many years.

I can't for the life of me figure out why things drop whenever he speaks. I mean, he sounds like a moron, but even though things are still positive, they're a lot less positive than they were prior to the press conference.

Yeah, I can't figure out today's Trump Dump, r75. There was a glimmer of hope today with the talk of Choloquine and other therapeutics in the pipeline.

[quote] I’m thinking it’ll be up again and over 30,000 by October.

My God, I hope you're not an investment advisor.

[quote]we note that markets lost more than half of their initial value during the last two recessions, versus current 20%. In addition, the last three recessions saw P/E multiples of 10.1x, 13.8x, and 10.2x at the low, while current P/E stands at 15.2x, and 14.5x at the recent trough on 12 March.

Is that the P/E ratio of the entire market, or one of the Indices?? And assuming it's the market as a whole, where does one go to track that number?

R76, one of the problems is that Trump lies. He claim that Choloquine was approved for testing by the FDA was false, and there's evidence that the drug failed to do anything helpful in China.

Thanks, R79. We really must remember that Trump lies and can never be trusted about anything.

The ineffective drug was Kaletra, not Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine). The Chinese tested it in vitro and found it worked against the virus but the French protocol actually used it for patients. It remains to be seen if other hospitals who will start using the same drug will have similar outcomes.

And to add to what r81 said, hydroxychloroquine showed efficacy with the other coronavirus, SARS.

Trump implied that both drugs had been approved by the FDA, or were close to approval, and soon could be available by prescription. None of that is true.

Both drugs have FDA approval and have been approved for years just not for Covid-19. Approval for Covid-19 will be shorter because these drugs are already approved for other indications and much is already known like their safety profile. In the meantime, doctors will probably prescribe for off label use if they feel there is a benefit.

Favivirapir is an antiviral that has some promise, it was used in Japan and Asia (Singapore?) during their outbreak. It isn't approved in the US for any indication though, so unfortunately can't be prescribed "off-label". They are starting up trials.

I'm sooo lucky.

I was just rolling over a 401K when the markets tanked. So I've been safely in cash for the past month. And staying there for now.

R85, Favivirapir wasn't what was mentioned at the press conference though. Remdesivir was and it is approved for Ebola. So, yes, both drugs are FDA approved.

I was going to say "Hey, the DOW is up a little today," but it's back down now.

And it's back up again.

Still down because he's still talking.

I wasn't paying attention...what did he say that dropped the market?

Does it matter what he said? Just the fact that everyone knows this baboon is "in charge" is a enough to make it tank. These press briefings are just daily reminders of that.

The markets will crater today after this shit-show of a press conference, and rightfully so.

And the DOW is down 1.21% as I type this.

[quote]And the DOW is down 1.21% as I type this.

Then stop typing r94!

[quote]Goldman Sachs report: “State-level anecdotes point to an unprecedented surge in layoffs this week. These anecdotes suggest that the next jobless claims report covering the week of March 15-21 will show that initial claims rose to roughly 2¼ million”

2.25 MILLION new jobless claims in one week.

I’ve been out since Trump got elected - so didn’t lose anything. But today I got back in. Blue chip stocks. Plan to hold for 5 years.

The 2017 40% corporate tax cut was a legitimate driver of increased value. Basically was a $1 trillion handout - to stock values. Otherwise it was all fluff.

[quote]Goldman Sachs projecting a 24% decline in second-quarter GDP. "Nearly two-and-a-half times the size of the largest quarterly decline in the history of the modern GDP statistics”

Back below 20K

Free fallin'

S&P Futures locked at 2174 within 2 minutes after the open. It's going to be a rough Monday.

Is the "E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract" on MarketWatch the numbers to follow for futures?

Also, what are the circuit breakers for futures trading? When does trading halt and for how long?

I thought he's just being a drama queen but Warren Bufffett's warning that the market could drop 50% may really happen.

r102 When a stock index future drops 5 percent, it is considered "limit down" and trading halts. Trading remains halted until there is an "uptick", that is, until a trader makes a bid that is higher than the limit down price. If there is no uptick, trading will remain halted all night. The E-Mini S&P 500 is the best way to track the stock index futures market.

Buy Gold man, GOLD! It'll be at 6,000/ounce by the end of the year.

Gold has been dropping in price.

They are selling gold to pay for margin calls ... and toilet paper.

Looks like the futures are trading again. Down **only** 4%.

Thanks for the explanation, R104!

#Where’s Fauci? is trending on Twitter.

This is a McConnell problem now. Fauci can't do much anymore. McConnell is dragging his evil ass on an aid package.

R111 Actually it was the democrats who nuked it.

[quote]A key procedural vote on a massive coronavirus stimulus bill failed in the Senate as Democrats lined up against it

I guess the Dems take issue with giving Mr. Munchkin carte blanche with a couple trillion dollars.

Can’t understand why . . .

R112 Looking at Dem twitter accounts, it was because it covered corporations but not the little guy. The bailout conditions for corporations seemed lax/vague also.

R114 True. Still looks bad though. But apparently they’re still trying to salvage something, because if they don’t the markets are gonna bleed.

[quote]Mnuchin is shuttling between Schumer and McConnell’s offices tonight and both sides are still signaling optimism about a stimulus deal. “Leader Schumer and Secretary Mnuchin are working late into the night, and they just had another productive meeting,” Schumer spox said

Monday will be another shitty day for the market. SAD!

[bold]U.S. Stock Futures Hit Limit Down; Treasuries Rise: Markets Wrap[/bold]

S&P 500 futures dropped 5% and hit limit down. Australian equities plunged more than 8% at one point, while stocks in Korea and Hong Kong lost about 5%. The dollar climbed against major peers. New Zealand’s dollar fell with the country’s bond yields after its central bank joined other countries in saying it will start buying bonds to stimulate the economy. As investors attempt to assess the severity of the upcoming downturn, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the virus.

Markets are “pricing a global recession, which we expect; stay defensive,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists Kamakshya Trivedi and Zach Pandl, wrote in a note Sunday. “The uncertainties around the depth and duration of the hit to the global economy remain high and the momentum in our own, and other, economic forecasts continues to be sharply negative with downside risks.”

Investors are grappling with a faster pace of coronavirus infections against flickers of optimism that have followed extraordinary government actions to protect the global economy, from plans for stimulus and cash handouts to nationalizing companies. Morgan Stanley economists said they now expect a deeper U.S. recession, and that the unemployment rate could surge.

“What we were hoping would be a U-shape, we are starting to fear could be an L-shape,” Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG, told Bloomberg TV, describing the potential shape of the downturn. The range of dispersions in forecasts for the economic impact “does illustrate how unprecedented this situation is -- it’s a health crisis that’s started morphing into a financial crisis.”

Burn it down!!!

[quote]I thought he's just being a drama queen but Warren Bufffett's warning that the market could drop 50% may really happen.

Why would you have thought a 50% drop wasn't possible? Are you young? We've seen this movie before...we know how it ends.

r118 and Warren Buffett is rarely if ever a drama queen.

I don't know anything about markets so I don't know if this is a ridiculous question.

Is there a reason this motherfucker won't just shut the market down?

I'm assuming it has to do emergency access to capital.

FYI...tomorrow is all computerized trading on the NYSE/

After the crash in 1929 did the stock market close for a bit, or did it keep trading on schedule? Did the markets close for a bit after 9/11? What’s the historical precedent here?

Wow... This sounds very familiar....

[quote]Despite all the economic warning signs and the market breaks in March and May 1929, stocks resumed their advance in June and the gains continued almost unabated until early September 1929 (the Dow Jones average gained more than 20% between June and September). The market had been on a nine-year run that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average increase in value tenfold, peaking at 381.17 on September 3, 1929. Shortly before the crash, economist Irving Fisher famously proclaimed "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." The optimism and the financial gains of the great bull market were shaken after a well-publicized early September prediction from financial expert Roger Babson that "a crash is coming, and it may be terrific". The initial September decline was thus called the "Babson Break" in the press. That was the start of the Great Crash, but until the severe phase of the crash in October, many investors regarded the September "Babson Break" as a "healthy correction" and buying opportunity.

Yes, r122, the markets closed for a few days after September 11. But I think that was due to inadequate emergency backup plans and the inability to physically open the building. There is some sort of a rule that the market cannot close more than three consecutive days.

Wasn't all of Lower Manhattan closed after 9/11? That would include the NY Stock Exchange.

[quote]In a little over four weeks since the February 19 peak, 22 trading days, the S&P 500 (SPX) has sold off 30% on a daily closing basis, making this the fastest 30% decline in history. The Dow is 35% below its February all-time high level, while the S&P 500 is 32% below its high.

Yes, r125, and that's when they (and everyone else) discovered you need an offsite disaster recovery site.

Closing down the markets wont stop the bleeding. Markets are made for buys and trades. Just because your product is selling at a lower price doesn't mean you get to just take your ball and go home. Even at these new lows, there are people (computer algorithms) still buying. If the government shut down trading it would cause a panic because it signals that something extraordinary is happening. Corona is affecting the entire world, there is no reason to close the US markets when everyone is doing just as bad if not worse. These markets are connected so our allies would be a little pissed that the US just closed their markets. If we want to remain the default currency of the international business world, then we need to be responsible to allow the markets to correct themselves in due time.

Best to just let this ride out like during the recession and depression. Stocks are cheap, people will buy them, business will recover or get replaced, stocks will rise again, people will become wealthier, and the cycle continues.

Fed appears hell-bent on destroying the value of the dollar. Their answer to this bubble collapse is to attempt to reflate yet another. Unbelievable. I want out of here.

Good news, we may be reaching the bottom. A death cross has appeared...

[quote]The Dow’s 50-day moving average fell to 27,097.53 from 27,290.53, according to FactSet, while the 200-day moving average is at 27,149.58, down from 27,184.16.

[quote]A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (DMA), which many chart watchers use as a short-term trend tracker, crosses below the 200-DMA, which is widely viewed as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. The idea is the cross marks the spot that a shorter-term selloff can be defined as a longer-term downtrend.

I’m incredibly conservative. Have been 90% cash since 2016. But I’ve now gone in on some blue chip stocks at 30%+ below where they were 3 weeks ago - closer to where they were pre-Trump. Planning to hold for a few years.

How accurate was technical analysis during the high tech selloff, r130? My guess is that TA won't hold up under these extreme conditions.

Hey, it's a great time to buy.

It seems to be good at predicting bottoms (insert joke here), r132. Also the volatility index is another good one to follow.

Remember the #RemoveBoomers hashtag that was supposedly a thing at one time?

Boomers should have their own hashtag regarding youngsters who think they are in a win-win situation if Grandma dies.

#ChangeYourWill

Leave everything to the puppies at an animal shelter charity or something and not the grand kids who are coughing on you and laughing.

For reasons which are well known to them.

Nasdaq was actually up today.

Oops

Wow - last minute swings were a whiplash. What a crazy market. I’m placing bets a $2 trillion stimulus approval will set it off to another crazy uptick day. Good time to be a day trader.

The mass die offs won't start until next week. There will be no bottom.

[quote]US weekly jobless claims soar to a record-breaking 3.28 million, vs 1.5 million expected

Now let's see if the futures can Limit Down before the opening bell.

This isn't like 2008. The jobs that were lost in 2008 were mainly high paying, white collar jobs -- many of which were gone forever. Also, in 2008, there were no generous unemployment benefits. The best people got back then was an extension. The jobs being lost now are mostly in the food and hospitality industries, which should begin to recover when distancing measures are lifted. I'd be surprised if the market tanks on unemployment news in the weeks to come.

There is zero justification for the Dow being at 22k in a time like this. Pure Fed manipulation. God help us...they're ultimately going to make shit so much worse.

Other than gold, I’m trying to plan a strategic investment for when inflation spirals out of control or the dollar tanks.

Same, R145.

Hookers r145.

Never fails.

Yeah, inflation should be making a reappearance soon.

Good thing my money market is paying 1.85%! That'll keep up with inflation!

Good day today depending on your point of view.

R143

Inflation? .. I thought people were talking deflation? .. Like during the first few years of The Great Depression?

Please explain. (I nearly failed my college course on the History of American Economics.)

US takes top spot over China for pandemic numbers and the stock market goes up. Yea...that makes sense.

So is the @18.5K last Monday the bottom? Looks like it though there are still some few contrarian views.

If 18,500 was the bottom then I don't even know what's real anymore. We're in a dire situation here. Even without a fucking pandemic ripping through our country, Dow 18,500 was overvalued.

r152, there is a very real possibility that the government over-stimulates the economy and we enter into an inflationary environment.

I disagree with dire, r155. Dire was 2008 when banks were failing and the underlying economy was on the verge of collapse. This is a market shock.

And what happens when you shock a bubble?

The fundamentals are still there, r157. It probably means the bounce back isn't as high, but it certainly doesn't merit remaining at the current lows.

R155 how does one know the market is overvalued? Do people and companies putting their retirement savings into buying index funds have anything to do with it?

R159 They go bu P/E ratio (price/earnings.) Of course the “earnings” part of the ratio has changed suddenly and future earnings are uncertain.

^^BY

R159, the massive stock buybacks due to the 2017 tax cuts are one of the prominent culprits. The companies involved didn’t suddenly become more valuable, but their stock prices were nonetheless pumped up to reward shareholders and management.

Yeah - the 40% increase in profits that Trump gave out to all corporations starting in 2017 was a logical driver of increased value. Yes - we borrowed $1 trillion to give to corporations to prop up stock prices largely for the benefit of the 1-10%. Criminal.

And now he gets another $2 trillion - and counting - to spend/borrow to prop up the fraud he created and get re-elected. Absolutely disgusting. And NO one cares where the money comes from.

And then they lower interest rates to zero so that if you want to get any return on your money whatsoever, you now have to put your money at risk in order to (possibly) do so. It's a fucking scam.

I’d like to know where all these TRILLIONS of dollars are coming from. A $2 trillion coronavirus rescue bill passed today (rescue bill #3) plus the Fed is buying a trillion dollars a week of bonds, mortgage backed securities, and whatever else to prop up the markets. How does all these TRILLIONS of dollars just appear like magic?

[quote]How does all these TRILLIONS of dollars just appear like magic?

We finally understand where all that hoarded toilet paper is going.

They press a button on a computer. Add a few zeros. Literally, that's what they admittedly do. This will end in tears.

If a company bought back a bunch of their own stock in recent years, why aren't they being forced to liquidate that stock before sticking their greedy fucking hands out and screaming "POOR!"? That's like me putting all of my money into gold bars and then filing bankruptcy and/or for SSI and food stamps. The government would tell me to kindly FUCK OFF and go sell some of my gold bars! Are we living in some sort of alternate reality here?? Am I missing something?

The country can print an unlimited amount of money. What it does to inflation and the economy is up for debate.

r168, that would cause the market to crash and they are trying to keep it propped up.

100% Debt R165. Shockingly irresponsible - and NO ONE even mentions it.

What is more appealing is while the economy and stock market were BOOMING the last 3 years, what did the US do with all the money being made- BORROWED hundreds of billions more to give corporations a 40% tax cut!

No one will even mention the insane levels of debt the US allowed Trump and the Rethuglicans to borrow in the midst of one of the biggest economic booms in history. Trump - who has made a career on borrowing tons of debt, bankrupting companies and walking away with money in his pocket - is doing EXACTLY the same thing to the US. It is maddening and hopeless.

The US is the paper (money) tiger.

Futures are already pointing lower.

I've never felt so hopeless in my life and it's not because of the stock market.

r174, remember 80% of the people who get sick don't require hospitalization. Wrong thread though.

We're back to mid March levels.

R175

CNBC says Have a Good Day.

[quote]Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

CNBC can't stop talking....

[quote]The 30% unemployment rate would top the Great Depression peak of 24.9%.

The best, most beautiful depression that nobody has ever seen! The Bigly Depression!

...and yet the stock market goes up. Who would invest their life savings in something so blatantly manipulated? This will end in tears one way or another.

I don't think we'll be seeing 30K again anytime soon.

I think the major deals have been had. The good stocks that got hit by the overall panic have rebounded - not to their prior highs - and stabilized. Others have farther to fall. I expect the Dow to dip back down to 20k and maybe 19k over the next few weeks.

I actually find this kind of impressive. Rather than push all of the issues off onto their lower-level employees, Disney is absorbing some of their losses by cutting executive pay. The new CEO is getting 50% less and Bob Iger as Chairman is giving up his entire salary.

Giving up his salary in exchange for stock options, I'm sure.

Goldman expecting GDP to contract 34% in the next three months.

Goldman looking at peak unemployment at 15% (seems overly optimistic) and a rebound in the third quarter.

r187 yeah it's not terrible scary because we are going right into the summer when people want to get the hell out of their house and live again. Bars and restaurants will be packed by the end of summer. This time next year things will be back to normal. Assuming we find a cure.

The Dow dropped 1.5% today. Why was this breaking news on CNN?

I think because it reversed from being up as much on the Goldman News.

I think, R189, because it struck an ominous note at the end of the month.

I think the big stories are over - this week will be about the seeping realization that it has had a dramatic effect and may not be quickly reversed. Slow slide back to 20k.

Well, the slide got a little faster this morning.

DJ will be at 10K by Easter Sunday.

At least the pews with be packed!

A fun fact from MarketWatch

[quote]The only Dow stock that rose during the first quarter was Microsoft MSFT, -1.528%, which closed at $157.71 on March 31, up a penny from $157.70 on Dec. 31. (All performance figures in this article exclude dividends.)

What's Microsoft doing so right? They destroyed Skype, I know that much.

[quote]What's Microsoft doing so right?

Microsoft Azure Cloud Computing Services and Office server hosting. It's all the rage when everybody is working from home.

MS got that huge Pentagon cloud contract that Amazon is suing over.

Dropped almost 1000 points today. Guess the stimulus package and FED pumping money into the market effects slowly wear off.

This market is like a heroin addict. It eventually needs more drug or else the sickness sets in. Shit's on life support.

Yeah the $2 trillion was a momentary high that wore off almost before it was even signed. Artificial fluff is seen for what it is. Now it’s about assessing the potential time and depth of the impact. Lots of uncertainty - but as time passes, there will be more certainty about the damage being done. I still say 20k interim - with possible slides to 18k.

People are starting to realize the massive worldwide economic hit this thing is going to cause. Everything will be impacted and more so than anyone thought just a month ago. It’s gonna be like a string of dominos going down. Snd Trump is becoming more unhinged with every one of those bizarro daily press briefings he does, that’s not gonna help.

We had an even bigly-er unemployment surge last week.

It's TWICE what two weeks ago was.

Shit this is going to get ugly.

Futures are trading up, surprisingly.

Barely. And they were really up before the report came out.

Just turned negative before the bell.

My suspicion is that we'll be back below 20K by the closing bell.

Lackluster open.

Breaking: Record 6.6 million file for unemployment last week, the highest jobless claims in history.

DJ at 10K on July 1.

Weird that it’s holding up. 10 million unemployment claims in 2 weeks! I guess people are holding out hope that it’s a v shape recovery when things open up again in 2-3 months. Still, business will have lost 25% of their revenue juts from this period - and likely 10%+ going forward.

Earlier in the week Goldman expects a recovery to begin in Q3. Right now it's not white collar jobs that will be gone forever, but more service workers that will be hired back as things open.

Trump also colluded with the Saudis to fix the price of oil.

Another domino falls, one of many more to come.

[quote]Volkswagen extended the temporary shutdown of its Chattanooga plant in Tennessee until 10 p.m. April 12 due to the coronavirus. The plant was expected to reopen earlier this week. It ended production on March 21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

[quote]The Labor Department's latest unemployment claims data show that the U.S. economy has nearly cut in half the 25 million jobs it added over the last decade. The government's Thursday report showed 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment last week, adding to the 3.3 million the week prior, each a new record at the time. Combined, those 10 million claimants make up about half of the 25 million nonfarm payrolls created since February 2010.

Bank of America slashed its S&P 500 forecast to the lowest on Wall Street as the bank now expects the coronavirus pandemic to tip the U.S. economy into the deepest recession in the post-war era. The bank on Thursday cut its year-end target on the S&P 500 to 2,600 from 3,100, which would translate into a nearly 20% loss for the full-year 2020.

“Amid the COVID-19 crisis, instead of a V-shaped recovery, we see risks that a lack of a synchronized health care response nationally results in weakened economic activity that drags out into 2H," Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, said in a note Thursday.

Former Federal Reserve governor Daniel Tarullo said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday that the historic jobless claims report, showing more than 6.6 million Americans filing for unemployment benefits, could get in the way of a sharp rebound for the economy, as many predict.

“When you see numbers that are of that order of magnitude it becomes clear just how steep a decline we are suffering right now and there's really no precedent for thinking about this," said Tarullo. "The prospect of the "V" shaped motion here — with going down rapidly and going up rapidly — may unfortunately not turn out to be what we see and instead we will face a much tougher road."

So the market was overpriced by a factor of two at its peak and BofA only sees the S&P going down 20% as a result of this total shit-show? I want what they're smoking.

I am 2/3 of the way to the 100 year old mark. Up to now, my life has been quite blessed with prosperity and good fortune. Never fired, laid off or unemployed, no major drama, no tragic, sudden deaths or long drawn out illnesses among family and friends.

I have a terrible feeling the next 20 years will be payback time, ,and it has nothing to do with aging and its side effects. .

[quote]Trump also colluded with the Saudis to fix the price of oil.

Wait, just a couple weeks ago he was bragging about how great cheap oil is for consumers and how he's going to fill up our reserves! What's there to "fix"?

Disney Parks are furloughing their non-union staff on April 19th. They employee 66k in Florida and 23k in California. Keep in mind they just raised $6 billion in debt notes.

Speaking of Disney, how is their stock only at 2018 levels when their parks are LITERALLY CLOSED. I get that they're somewhat diversified, but seriously? Having those parks completely closed down has got to be costing them a ton.

R224, and their cruise ships are down, too.

Looks like an ugly open with the jobs report showing a loss of 700,000 jobs.

It wasn't that horrible yesterday even after the reported 6 million lost jobs. When I checked the Dow was up 500 points. I bet the Fed is still pumping huge amounts of money into the market every day. This can't be real. 10 million jobs lost and thousands of businesses facing bankruptcy and the Dow is still doing well.

[quote]Disney Parks are furloughing their non-union staff on April 19th. They employee 66k in Florida and 23k in California. Keep in mind they just raised $6 billion in debt notes.

I think that they do have a pretty strong union.

[quote]10 million jobs lost and thousands of businesses facing bankruptcy and the Dow is still doing well.

They need to keep it afloat for as long as possible, so that people can make as much money as they can before it craters. Pump and dump on a massive scale.

Wtf is the market doing? I’m in Canada, it’s not dropping here despite the exploding covid-19 and unemployment.

r229, it looks like all the bad news is now baked into the market. The only thing now that will move it either way is something completely unexpected.

I think we should be worried about the banks. Their stocks have really taken a hit!

^Get some cash now.

Hey, Canada, R229 - I created a “watch list” at the market peak and it looks like the 4 indexes I track are down between about 25% and 35%. They slid quickly, and have been bouncing around this level since.

As to what will move the market, if we’re surprised by anything, that will do it. On the upside, such as an effective, cheap, widely available “treatment”. I can’t even wish for a cure, but a treatment, maybe. Or, if the virus does let-up in the Summer. Oh - cheap, widely available tests would help the market.

On the downside, any political instability, which could be anything in the usual places, (Ukraine, Korea, Palestine, Georgia, Pakistan/India/China, etc.) Trump is injecting himself into the oil market so that could be a disaster. Worse results than expected. And so forth.

I don’t think we’ve found a floor, yet; but it’s reassuring that the slide has subsided at the current level.

R231, yes, the banks might eventually have trouble. They’d be like dominos. A small, weak one fails first, then the bigger ones. IIRC, the Great Depression actually started with the crash of an Austrian Bank, not with the stock market crash.

Banks are in better shape now than they were in 2008.

Disney is cursed. They have theme parks, movies, cruise ships, which are all suffering, I’d guess. They do have a TV channel, too. I’d guess that TV, in general, must be doing well.

I don’t recall exactly when it was, but I think Disney was the first company to issue 100-year bonds. This was when rates were at historic lows, though they look like highs, today, with our ultra-low rates now. This was probably in the 80s or 90s.

Odd - things that should be hit disproportionately seem to be down no more than the overall market. Oil companies could be a big swing - hit by both the Russia/Saudi games and the virus. I’d bet the games stop - as Russia will need the money.

OPEC+ is having a meeting, r237, which is what is causing the jump in oil prices.

I guess I am lucky i never had the money to invest in the stock market.

R239 if you have a retirement account, it presumably is in the stock market.

The amount of people with anything significant in retirement accounts/stock market is shockingly low. Probably 50% of Deplorables have little or nothing saved - yet think the stock market soaring is a good thing for them. So the 40% cut in corporate taxes in 2017 - which sucked out $1 trillion from the government safety net - was seen as “good” by poor Deplorables even though it primarily benefitted the wealthy and will result in higher taxes for their kids for generations.

[quote]yet think the stock market soaring is a good thing for them.

It actually is. Any lower on some of these companies and you're going to see layoffs.

[quote]So the 40% cut in corporate taxes in 2017 - which sucked out $1 trillion from the government safety net - was seen as “good” by poor Deplorables even though it primarily benefitted the wealthy and will result in higher taxes for their kids for generations.

It not the tax rate as much as it's the loopholes. The US had one of the highest tax rates, it's just come down to a more competitive level. Write offs and other loopholes that allow companies to not pay any taxes are the issue.

The Dow will be at 10K on July 1

Now they get the loopholes AND the low taxes. Glad we fixed that.

R244, when Kennedy lowered the effective tax rate, tax collections increased and not decreased because loopholes weren't saving much anymore.

That said, some of the loopholes needs to be closed. But I'm okay with the lower tax rate.

[quote]I bet the Fed is still pumping huge amounts of money into the market every day.

It is. The Fed has been pouring trillions (yes, TRILLIONS) of dollars to prop up the markets since last month when credit markets started to seize up.

[quote]In this latest installment of QE, the Fed dropped the fund rate between 0 and 0.25 percent. In its announcement on March 15, 2020, the Fed promised $700 billion in fresh capital. On March 23, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (one of the Fed’s primary bodies that oversees market operations) announced that it would be opening the floodgates for ceaseless QE:

[quote]“The Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions,” according to a press release at the time.

R246 how long can they continue to do this?

R247, I don’t think anyone knows. When we know, it’ll be too late.

R245 Oink.

So collecting more taxes makes one a pig? Okay?

When Kennedy became president tippy top tax rates were roughly 90%

Another Republican President; another recession

I have a feeling tax rates are gonna be going up reeeeeeeal soon.

Despite what the "Wealth Creator's" would shill. The majority of tax revenue is generated thru witholding taxes on workers pay checks. No workers . No tax revenue. The peasants need to get back in the fields pronto.

The point is, r251, Kennedy lowed the tax rate and ended up collecting more money.

It’s tricky, R255. Lowering taxes from a very high level, is different from lowering taxes from a lower level. The Right will use that Kennedy example to advocate for lower taxes even now, and it’s not at all the sane thing,

Market up nearly 1000 on perception that the virus is slowing in the US.

Is there anything we can do to save our 401ks? Should I go in and specify what kind of shares I should be buying now? Lost 15K the last month. Ugh.

Checking just now my portfolio is up 2.26% this morning. Nice for two hours.

Right now your loss is on paper, r258.

I'm looking at consumer and medical stocks right now.

The virus is slowing because everyone's locked in their fucking homes. What'll happen once we go out again?

R258 Once again: You only “lose” if you SELL.

Ok, obviously I'm too dumb for this. I'll call my manager. Thanks

[quote] Lost 15K the last month. Ugh.

How is the current balance in relation to this time last year? Or even three years ago when the Dow was in the same 22000 range that it's in now?

We've gained back about half of what was lost from High to Low.

I think from here on out, the market will be driven by economic data and company earnings. The covid fear it seems has subsided.

‘Risk to the downside is greater than the opportunity to the upside from this point where we stand today.’ That’s Goldman Sachs’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin, explaining during a CNBC phone interview on Tuesday that recent enthusiasm for stocks don’t necessarily constitute an all-clear signal for bullish investors seeking a path higher for the pandemic-stricken markets.

“There’s a little bit of asymmetry in terms of the downside risk toward a level in the S&P 500 of around 2,000, which is down almost 25%, and upside of around 10% to a target at the end of the year of 3,000,” he explained on Tuesday’s edition of the channel’s “Squawk on the Street” program.

That’s quite a range of outcomes from Goldman but speaks to the uncertainty surrounding the economy and the markets once they reach the aftermath of the COVID-19, which is still wreaking havoc on domestic and global economies due to forced shutdowns of business and personal activity intended to mitigate the spread of the deadly coronavirus pathogen. The disease, which was first identified in China in December, has infected nearly 1.4 million people and killed nearly 80,000 world-wide, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University, has resulted in some 10 million jobs lost over the past two weeks and has likely pushed the unemployment rate in the U.S., which stood near a 50-year low at 3.5% back in February, north of 10%.

However, glimmers of hope that the spread of the infection may be leveling off has buoyed stocks over the past two sessions—until stocks staged a dramatic U-turn late—and raised the question of whether the market is underestimating the near-term and lasting impacts of the pandemic.

Can anyone recommend a reading or video on how to trade options? I never wanted to take that risk, so never learned. Thank you.

Check out books by Sheldon Nattenberg (sp?) and Lawrence McMillan. You need to have a strong stomach for options.

TY, R269.

Guess record unemployment claims three times running was baked into the market.

An additional 6 million people lost their jobs last week and a total of 16+ million people are currently unemployed.......but the Dow is up 500 points.

Could someone explain what the hell is going on here? How is this possible?

Looks like the Fed stepped in this morning.

US stocks climbed on Thursday, continuing gains from Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve announced an additional $2.3 trillion in aid to businesses and governments.

Good god, is this bubble ever going to pop?

Yes. The Fed knew the unemployment claims figures would be bad. Consequently, they timed their announcement of market support to coincide, within seconds, of the numbers‘ release.

DOW went WOW! Now digesting.

Unfortunately this is only a temporary blip. We’ve got [italic] at least [/italic] another month of isolation.

With unemployment headed toward double digits, people with cash are going to horde it. People without cash aren’t going to spend any.

Eviction freezes are a good interim step. But that two or three months of back rent’s ultimately going to come due &, for those who can’t get unemployment, the $1200+ spent on food, utilities (and insurance) isn’t going to be there to pay it.

Guess I'll never be owning stocks. I refuse to buy into a bubble. Not with MY money!

Going up, up, up...

R276 You assume the DOW has anything to do with the real economy. Quaint.

It’s in a temporary bump - it will go down again. Don’t dive in now. Perhaps cash out of some thing a that took a big hit in March but have somewhat recovered if you need the money in the next year or two - or of the company has a high level of debt.

Goldman still see a market comeback and predicts the S&P will be at 3000 by the year's end.

Link to Goldman prediction...

Goldman analyst at R267 seems to disagree. They really have no idea. Stock pickers are con men.

I bought into the crash a month ago. Currently I'm up about 12%,

It's going to be volatile over the next few weeks with earnings season.

R279, one observer—I forget which one—said that the market is banking, literally, on the belief that Trump will do anything to bail out the shareholder class, so he can continue to point to the stock market as the ultimate arbiter of his success. In other words, the worse the real economy gets, the more of a sure thing stock ownership becomes.

^^^ Capitalism ..

What control does Trump really have over the stock market? I thought the crooked and inept Fed is an independent agency?

Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman only has bad news.

I'm okay with a year to recover from this recession. 2008 was brutal and the recovery took years.

I can't think of any industry that hasn't been impacted by this virus. In terms of a recovery, nobody knows nothing.

The market has to tank again - the bounce of the past week is unjustifiable. This is now looking like a much longer shutdown than a few weeks ago when everything tanked .

[Quote]Roughly 22 million have sought jobless benefits in the past month — easily the worst stretch of U.S. job losses on record.

So.... but the Dow is still up? How many more till we see the bubble burst? Something is not right here. Dow should be at 15.000 right now.

I think the effect of the unemployed, stopping spending, isn’t in the numbers yet, so, it will get worse. The smart money should be on top of this already, though.

r293, that number was baked into the decline. It was anticipated. What is going to drive the market now are surprises. Like last week's rally was based on Covid not being as bad as the models just a week or two earlier had anticipated.

As we have learned, R288, when Trump is President no agency is “independent.”

There is no market anymore. It's rigged. And everyone is beginning to realize it.

I’m seeing internet articles saying that all these job losses and business closures were baked into the original stock market drop. Really?

R298, only time will tell. I don’t think anybody really knows how this will work out. If the market stabilizes or even recovers a bit, then it will prove to be true. If not, then false. Predictions are easy to make. Accurate ones are much harder to make.

There is too much that is completely unknown. Will they develop a treatment or vaccine? Will the virus just dissipate? Will testing show that most of us already were exposed to the virus and beaten it off? Things like this will send the market up.

In contrast, we might learn that no one develops immunity. Or that it’s infectious for weeks before and after symptoms develop, or even permanently? Or that it’s airborne. Or the death rate is higher, or it’s virtually impossible to kill the virus. Or that testing continues to be rationed, or even that our test kits are unreliable. Or some major companies start going under. Etc. Things like this will send the market down.

All of this business is not something that can be accurately predicted by the average person, so there simply is no way to wisely invest right now,

r298, yes. You have analysts whose job is to anticipate economic changes, which then gives investors who have this info an edge when investing. While people not tuned into the market are looking at the weekly numbers in isolation week-to-week, investors have already factored in the totality of the unemployment impact and are looking beyond that now. What will move the market will be something unanticipated or new info about the future.

r298, yes. You have analysts whose job is to anticipate economic changes, which then gives investors who have this info an edge when investing. While people not tuned into the market are looking at the weekly numbers in isolation week-to-week, investors have already factored in the totality of the unemployment impact and are looking beyond that now. What will move the market will be something unanticipated or new info about the future.

I suspect, as with 2008’s CDOs, this is much worse than the market is reflecting.

Forget the Mom and Pops. MAJOR retail and restaurant establishments are within weeks of bankruptcy. Each day nearly a million more people become unemployed. Newly broke they are only getting food on the table courtesy of plastic cards that are going to max out, delinquent, by June.

Meanwhile the “smart money” is manipulating the market so that it all “seems” OK: Dow’s Up; the recovery is at hand.

A completely novel unknown virus is not “baked in.” We’re in the midst of a gravity defying run up.

Once they offload overvalued crap on ordinary star struck investors - as they did at the beginning of the Great Recession - the boom will fall.

The “smart money” will have cashed out.

Um, why are oil futures negative?

Agreed, r302.

R393, how is that even possible?

Neiman-Marcus declared bankruptcy today,

Because it costs more to produce and store r393.

I don't think there is any more room to store oil. I think the Texas oil fields are in trouble.

This must be killing Russia.

[quote]I don't think there is any more room to store oil. I think the Texas oil fields are in trouble.

There isn't and they are.

Gurl, bye!

[quote] I don't think there is any more room to store oil.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve had 78.5 million barrels of spare capacity available as of April 10. Look for Trump to fill it while the prices are so low.

r302 unemployed people are receiving weekly to bi-weekly unemployment checks with an extra $400 on top thanks to the most recent stimulus package. Times are hard, but people are getting cash, almost as much as the Canadians, if they avoided terrible red states.

My bro said that Florida is trying to stop people from getting that extra $600. The state is taking the money and spreading out the payments over more weeks.

I told him that wasn't legal but he claims that's what he heard during a presser. And he's a rethug voter who thought living in a trumptard Utopia would be great.

(He's been bitterly disappointed in desantis and dick rot)

I pretty much think Trump won't be re-elected at this point. But isn't it crazy that it literally took a deadly virus, and global pandemic to get him out of office, LOL.

That sneaky virus could trick America into reelecting Trump. If it recedes in summer and even seems to "disappear", then comes back strong- but only after the election. I could see his base + wafflers reelecting him. Or at least giving him a fighting chance for reelection.

R312, Florida's unemployment system is designed to give the least amount of money to the least amount of people. It's why Florida is pushing to open the state before it should... Florida is about to be found out and the governor knows it.

The stock market is wrong about the economy. How long before the crash? I'm guessing it's when the 2nd quarter's earnings come out.

I'd say the market has written off the second quarter too, r316.

The stock market is in denial after bouncing back from the initial shock.

It's not denial, it's Fed meddling. The market just so happened to shoot upwards (and stay elevated) the exact day the Fed shot their $2 trillion load. We no longer have a free market.

GDP down 4.8% and is expected to be revised downward. Futures trading higher.

Holy crap, a 4.8% drop is huge. I have a lot of money on the sidelines I'm not moving it into stocks in the short term, there is no way this market is rational.

R319, who would have thought that Dump would be our first socialist president? Seriously, everyone who yaps about Democrats and socialism should get this response: we’re already there, thanks to Dump! In what capitalist country does anyone get a bailout?

R320 GDP down 4.8% and is expected to be revised downward. Futures trading higher.

Tells ya all ya need to know about the Stock Market.

R323, my guess, the market already factored the drop in, back when it fell to 19k.

The market was looking for GDP to decline 10% and unemployment to hit 17% in Q1. A 4.8% decline is better than what was baked in when the market declined to the 18k levels.

Indeed, r324. I think Gilead had some good results with a coronavirus treatment so that should boost the market.

-4.8% is a clear lie. They're padding all of these numbers so people don't panic any more than they already have.

If the economy isn't that bad after all then all of that bailout money wasn't needed and should be clawed back!

R327 it's expected to be revised lower.

R328 the market reflects expectations moreso than the here and now.

The market is seemingly expecting a 'V' recovery.

r322 in real life the terms capitalist, socialist, and communist can not exist in their true form. We are capitalist to a fault. True capitalism ended with the Gilded Age.

I think the economy will bounce back. The fundamentals are still sound. People are itching to leave there home for fun or work. This will guarantee favorable employment numbers around October. I still think Trump has a good chance to win re-election.

the stock market just shows what a contrast the rich experience is to those currently out of work and barely getting by with the stimulus check

Well, R332, we know that the undertakers will all have jobs, but I don't know if that's enough to put him over the top.

Or middle income people with 401Ks.

r332 the fundamentals weren't sound - the bounce we've had since Trump took office was artificially inflated.

I just can't see how it's not going to crash again worse than in March

it's absurd to see it going high while the majority of Americans are worried about the economy and their own finances

r336 I'm talking about the economy not the stock market, though that is this thread's topic. Trump's unemployment numbers were stellar. The economy was strong. It will never be perfect and people can find fault, but every president would love to have Trump's economy. Sure landlords could foreclose on restaurants and other businesses, but I think they will be patient to see how the recovery pans out. By the 4th of July I foresee the country being open again. A sizable portion of the workforce moved to a remote work setup. They may have saved money staying at home and are ready to enjoy the summer.

If the infections increase again then we are in danger.

r338 the unemployment numbers were just Obama's unemployment numbers. A lot of people are underemployed, which doesn't show up in the numbers. It's not as solid an economy as it looks, in other words. This was true under Obama as well.

And no matter how many times you say "Trump's economy", it doesn't make it a result of his actions. The only thing he did was prolong Obama's improvements by running up a massive deficit in order to pass the tax cuts, and that is going to be an anchor on the economy going forward. The trade wars he's engaged in have been adding to the deficit, and if he hadn't passed the tax cuts we would likely have had a stagnant economy. He artificially strung it along, and ESPECIALLY given the massive deficit spending going on right now to try to prop up the economy - in addition to the FED's action's - are going to tank the economy for years to come, despite what happens in the stock market.

Also r338 infections are guaranteed to increase again, as states open up and people flout social distancing rules. You have the rose-colored view of a Fox News watcher.

R339, I had a specialist friend year ago give me some sound advice. He said there are three things you need to know about investing: 1) never try to catch a falling knife 2) never let emotions get in the way and 3) never fall in love with a company or stock. It seems trite, but it is damn sound.

The market doesn't care which President started the uptrend in unemployment, it only cares if it continues. So for all intent and purposes, r338 is right, it is Trump's economy and if Biden wins it will become his economy once he takes office.

r339 I'm a huge Obama fan and supporter. He made Trump's economy possible, but we are into the final year of Trump's first term. I personally think after the first 6-8 month mark of a new administration, you can start to give them some credit or blame for the economy. More importantly, Presidents get the blame or credit during elections so we might as well call it theirs. I don't really care about the stock market's swings. It's all speculation. A lot of little guys are riding this wave and buying up stock basically at a discounted price. There are a group of middle class people that are largely unaffected by this pandemic outside of their 401K balance. They are the ones that will lead the recovery.

My portfolio is up 2.4% for the day. If that's "Down Bigly" I'll take it.

R343 A roller coaster has to go up to set up for the fall.

And this fall will happen, when?

Stock futures on the rise as jobless claims slow.

You expect a person who has declared bankruptcy over half a dozen times in his professional life to do anything differently with direct access to "free government money"?! The ultimate welfare queen with three baby mamas!

I just read that the Nasdaq index is now positive YTD. Isnt that amazing?

Wow, yeah, r348, that sort of stealthily shot up there. I'd like to see a heat map of what industries are up for the year. I don't think it's going to be evenly across the board.

Irrational. Exuberance.

Checking just now so far I'm down 2% for May, up 3.75% for the quarter, and up 10.18% for 2020 to date. The economy will recover a lot more quickly than some of you think, or fear.

r351, the economy is going to be hurting until we have a vaccine. I don't see how productivity will improve until we have one. Why do you think the economy will recover soon?

r351, you confuse the economy with the stock markets. We are at the beginning of the economy collapse.

With 30+ million people out of work, businesses shed their employees in record speed.

Talk to me in 90 days when people start losing their homes and we see the beginnings of another real estate collapse.

You can open the "economy" but if people do not go out and spend money, the slide into The Trump Depression will continue.

FWIW: Buy your Christmas presents early. It will be grim.

And all of this was because Trump would not do the normal decent things necessary to stop CV-19 in the beginning.

Trump hates spending money on Americans and here he is trying to prop up the economy he destroyed WITH MONEY.

[quote] Why do you think the economy will recover soon?

Largely because the china virus mainly affects the elderly, less so the working age people most of whom didn't even notice they were infected. CDC stats show the average age of virus fatalities is 75. And as the lady in Texas and those around the country show you can't stop 300 million people from doing what they need to put food on the table. Deferred demand will boost it further as people move more freely, Amazon can't do everything.

It's the same overseas too. For example I see Germany is about to reopen their stores.

[quote]Largely because the china virus...

Thanks for the dog whistle.

I hate to say this but we'd be looking at a very different situation if these were white collar jobs similar to 2008 -2012. When you have mass unemployment in white collar jobs a certain number of losses will be permanent. Most of these jobs are low paying, low barrier to entry jobs.

The unemployment number that will matter more in the future is the U6 number, which reflects 'real unemployment'. Like the great recession, this number was slower to recover as people were underemployed and discouraged from looking for a job. If in 6 months the U6 number is very high then we will have a problem.

A dose of reality from The Economist magazine -

[quote]Our cover this week looks at the dangerous gap between America’s stockmarket and the economy. In the past few weeks a gut-wrenching sell-off in shares has been followed by a delirious rally. Between February 19th and March 23rd, the S&P 500 index lost a third of its value. With barely a pause it has since rocketed, recovering more than half its loss. At one level, this makes good sense. Asset managers have to put money to work as best they can. But there is something wrong with how far stock prices have moved. American shares are now higher than they were in August, suggesting that the economy can get back to business as usual. There are countless threats to such a prospect, starting with how far the rosy view on Wall Street is from life on Main Street, where people are out of work, small businesses are struggling to get cash and there is the ever-present threat of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

"Stocks fall after jobless claims spike again."

How many trillions will the FED pump into the stock market now to save it from collapsing?

Seems to be bouncing back a bit. At least we're not looking at limit down opens again.

The past 4 days have been brutal for me. Wiped out all the recovery I made since March. Should have gotten out 2 weeks ago, reality is settling in. That April bump was wishful thinking - here comes the recession. 36 million unemployed and multiple governments saying this is at least another 3 months. No more confusion - this is bad.

Burn, baby, burn!

"I hate to say this but we'd be looking at a very different situation if these were white collar jobs similar to 2008 -2012."

Oh don't worry about that. White collar layoffs are certainly coming. Right now, it's just the high-payed consultants and freelancers who are out of work (many of whom worked in the corporate world). Next up are full-time employees. You sound like you should know the drill. Most likely after July 1st, which is the start of the new fiscal year.

A friend works for PWC and so far there were no lay offs at his firm. Only partners so far had 40% pay cuts. He believes all companies need accountants and consultants once the pandemic is over to help with restructuring their business. He and his white collar friends all feel safe for now. Let's see what happens.

It seems IT is hardly impacted. The emails I'm getting from headhunters are about the same pre-Covid, maybe even more.

Once again - as I said to anyone who would listen the last 10 years - go into IT. Along with medicine, one of the only safe industries left.

R362 I think you're going to find companies look for creative ways to keep white collar jobs for as long as possible. I really do believe that CEOs know if that sector of the economy goes then there is no coming back for years and that it's better to run a loss in the short term then go full-on depression for years.

So the employment numbers today are showing a v-shaped recovery. Market futures soaring. CNN has taking down the coronawatch graphic too.

I don't believe these numbers. I don't trust anything coming from this government.

i think its already priced in the market with the recent rallies the past few days? and i dont believe the unemployment #s too.

Well, r368, the numbers do reflect the reopening of about 13 of the country. Where it may get dicey and the numbers more meaningful is toward the end of the year when everything is close to being more fully open. Those numbers will reflect businesses that folded or downsized. Consumer spending numbers will also become more important as time goes on.

CNBC: Employment stunningly rose by 2.5 million in May and the jobless rate declined to 13.3% according to data Friday from the Labor Department that was far better than economists had been expecting and indicated that an economic turnaround could be close at hand.

Stock market futures burst higher following the report and indicated an open of nearly 650 points higher for the Dow Jones.

Now Trump will take all the credit for the lower unemployment rate and claim that he saved the economy. Meanwhile, even though about 1,000 people continue to die of COVID-19 every day, the public seems to have bought into the myth that the coronavirus pandemic is over and it's time to stop social distancing. And the media have shifted their attention away from COVID-19 to police brutality, which means we'll go into the election season with social justice warriors demanding that the election be a national referendum on reparations, systemic racism, and white privilege, which will scare off white suburban voters. We could very well end up with 4 more years of Trump.

Up over 700.

[quote] Once again - as I said to anyone who would listen the last 10 years - go into IT.

IT jobs are as volatile as the economy. Even lawyers, whom everyone likes to mock as vultures, suffer during a recession. Healthcare and funeral professionals are the only constants, though they don’t offer the highs in income that premiere finance, IT, and corporate law do.

The Democrats are shrewd.

Once the money from the PPPs starts running out and the spikes from Covid begin after the premature openings, the bankruptcies begin.

Both Business and Individual.

Prediction: The Republicans will be very motivated to pass the Heroes Act. Trump is over.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics concedes that the numbers are being cooked. From the BLS press release:

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff in May, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported.

[quote]The Labor Department noted that during the pandemic, millions of workers were misclassified as "employed but not at work," when they should have been counted as "unemployed on temporary layoff." If it weren't for those misclassifications, the unemployment rate would have been higher — around 19.2% in April and 16.1% in May, not including seasonal adjustments.

[quote]Still, economists' estimates for the May report were way off, with expectations around 20% and about 8 million jobs lost.

Not really, r376, it seems like they didn't know what to do with furloughed workers.

r377, those are the month to month numbers which are STILL 22MILLION down from January.

Trump LOVES giving HIMSELF the best numbers.

He is a fraud.

I know exactly what the numbers are, r378. I also know that the U6 employment number is the better number to follow. And I'd be more than happy to explain both to you.

r379, thank you but no. I've sufficient of assholes preaching on DL. Parse your opinions elsewhere.

So, in other words, you talk to yourself, r380.

well remember Trump is the projection king. He kept claiming Obama's economic and job market numbers were fake. Obviously the were real since those trends continued these past few years

but it makes it more likely Trump would demand that his own numbers are fudged in a favorable way.

r381, just a bit arrogant. Why would anyone listen to you when there are so many other outlets to critically distill.

You ain't one.

But in leaving, I do believe that we agree that Trump's numbers are WAY off.

Because based on what you've posted, it shows you don't understand "those many other outlets [that] critically distill."

And after giving you a reasonable out you just devolved into just another DL cunt.

Totally worthless.

Ya cunt

R385 I’m a different cunt, but how does one critically distill something? Is it the process of making alcohol and telling it off while doing it?

Just to set the record straight, Poindexter is a Troll who is stalking me, and he is the one who made that stupid prediction at R194. He signed my name and wrote: “DJ will be at 10K by Easter Sunday.“ In R212, he wrote ”DJ at 10K on July 1”, although this time he didn’t sign my name.

Now, every time I post anything, he follows my post with an accusation that I made the faulty predictions that he himself made. What a weirdo.

[quote] Checking just now so far I'm down 2% for May, up 3.75% for the quarter, and up 10.18% for 2020 to date.

Five weeks later I'm up 1.71% for June, up 12.66% for the quarter, and up 19.65% for 2020 to date.

I wish I hadn't had as much as I did locked in 6 month CDs

R388, what are your percentages based on? Is it the total return on the money you have in the market? Or total return on your investment portfolio?

it really is bizarre

the world is on fire

economy in shambles

coronavirus cases way up in half the country

social unrest

the President keeps getting outed and outs himself as an incompetent, malignant narcissistic madman

but stocks near highs! nothing to see here!

It’s the greater fool theory.

r389 the figures are for my market funds diversified between Large American Capital Equities, Global Equities, and Emerging Market Equities dating solely from when I bought into the panic and fearmongering.

I am back. Down. To zero. Never thought I’d see this place again....

R393, what does that mean? You lost everything?

R393. You're a simpleton. Stick to Green Stamps.

^racist!

coronavirus cases exploding in half the country!

but we're reopening so the Dow is up! nothing to see here folks! $$$$

We had 180,000 [italic] new [/italic] Corona cases just [italic] today! [/italic]

Is the stock market in some kind of alternate reality?

R399 it seems to be all about hype and potential

it ran up today with the news of progress in vaccines despite the fact that more rounds of testing must be done

it seems at this point the millionaires and billionaires just believe Trump will look out for their economic interests regardless of what happens to the rest of the country

It’s the greater fool theory at work.

[italic] In finance and economics, the greater fool theory states that the price of an object is determined not by its intrinsic value, but rather by the local and relative demand of a specific consumer. [/italic]

It is FOMO - fear of missing out. When people see a stock price shooting up, they have to buy it, no matter how overpriced it is.

R402, and this leads people to do the exact opposite that they should. They see a hot stock making a run-up, so they buy, but the stock may have already had its growth spurt, and the buyer is buying “high”. Likewise, a stock that has fallen may encourage someone to sell, locking in a loss.

Warren Buffett has said, “when others are greedy, be fearful. And when others are fearful, be greedy”. But this is the exact opposite of what our emotions tell us to do.

Did any of you bulls buy Tesla? The mania is over and the stock market and Trump are going to get fucked.