Democratic Nevada Caucus Part 2: Nevada say Nevada Again

I'm suffering from Reno failure.

I felt Sparks in Scotty's Junction

Oh shit, Pete is only 3% behind Biden. He is closing in!

Biden 19%

Pete 16%

Warren 12%

Predictions on second place?

R4, Pete.

Biden thought he was going to take another hit in Nevada. I’m guessing his second place standing was a welcome surprise.

If he drops to third, does it affect his path at all, given he expected to do poorly in NV anyway?

Biden needs to go to SC and win by at least 10 to have any comeback narrative, i don't think he can do it.

If Bernie wins the nomination, I’d like to see him reach out to moderates. If he doesn’t, I’m not interested.

Biden needs to drop out. He is holding Warren and Buttigieg down.

I hope Pete scalps him before the night is over.

R8, he could start by at least trying to rein in his army of online trolls a little.

Rumors are that the news media is going to do a massive hit and expose on Bernie Sanders in the next 2 weeks. TPTB do not want Sanders to win the Democratic nomination.

Sanders needs to drop out. He’s taking Elizabeth Warren’s voters. Sanders cannot win the general election.

Chris Matthews: Democratic Establishment Would Prefer Trump to Bernie Sanders

I hope the Midwest and South have better sense and vote more moderately. I’m counting on you Colorado.

It’s not that people aren’t voting moderately. It’s that the moderate vote is split so many ways no moderate can possibly win.

I heard Andrew Yang, who is now a commentator on CNN, say tonight that some of the bottom tier candidates should “pull a Yang,” (his words), and drop out, allowing moderates to coalesce behind one or two candidates. He’s right.

The idea that Bernie is getting a minority of voters, while the majority of moderates are getting these shattered, splintered votes, is infuriating. Some of these people need to step the fuck aside and quit. I vote Tom Steyer and Bloomberg first. Neither can win, they’re throwing their money away and they need to put it behind a front runner.

Blah! The Midwest and South are the reason people like Biden are staying in the race when those vote could go to Warren and Pete.

Nevada is a state that actually walks the walk in the general election by voting Democrat. Regardless of how I feel about Bernie, good for Nevada for puting the rest of the candidates on notice. Take care of the states that vote for you in the general instead of chasing states that will vote red and against you.

All this first alignment, final alignment crap is horseshit.

Have a regular fucking primary, Nevada.

Amy seemed like a disaster at the last debate. She couldn’t handle even the mildest criticism. I don’t think Pete was being too tough on her, she just thought he was so much beneath her. We already have that asshole in the White House today, we don’t need another one.

FIRST ALIGNMENT

PERCENT REPORTING: 50%

33.6% Sanders

17.1% Biden

15.9% Buttigieg

FINAL ALIGNMENT

PERCENT REPORTING: 50%

39.9% Sanders

18.4% Buttigieg

18.1% Biden

STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS

PERCENT REPORTING: 50%

46.6% Sanders

19.2% Biden

15.4% Buttigieg

^^Link

Time for Amy and Steyer to go. Both are not ranking well in Texas and California. They need to leave now.

The first alignment is telling if you add Buttigieg and Biden together.” - basically equals Bernie.

The fraus need to drop out.

Shit, Warren’s strong showing at the debate didn’t help her!

I think everybody will stay in through Super Tuesday. It’s so close. Even if they ran out of money, they could coast until then.

Bernie sure made a shit show of the caucus rules.

What a fucking clusterfuck!

I agree that it's time for Amy to toss her presidential campaign into the wastebin and pack the rest of her political career into a to-go tupperware container to take home to Minnesota.

AP Explains: New rules could muddle results of Iowa caucuses

(And Nevada, apparently)

W ASHINGTON (AP) — For the first time, the Iowa Democratic Party will report three sets of results from the party’s presidential caucuses. And there is no guarantee that all three will show the same winner.

Each set of results represents a different stage of the caucus. The new rules for the Feb. 3 contest were mandated by the Democratic National Committee in a bid to make the process more transparent.

In the past, Iowa Democrats reported only one set of results: the number of state convention delegates won by each candidate through the caucus process. Democrats choose their party’s eventual White House nominee based on national convention delegates, and the state delegates are used to determine those totals in Iowa.

The Associated Press will declare a winner in Iowa based on the number of state delegates each candidate wins. The AP will also report all three results.

Q: What results will Iowa Democrats release out of the caucus?

A: There will be three sets of results: tallies of the “first alignment” of caucus-goers, their “final alignment” and the total number of State Delegate Equivalents each candidate receives.

This is the first time the party has made public the first and final alignment results.

Q: What do those categories mean, and how will the results be determined?

A: Caucuses are different from primaries. In a primary, voters go to the polls, cast their ballots and leave. At a caucus, voters gather at local precincts and declare support for their chosen candidate — then some have an opportunity to switch sides.

In Iowa, voters arriving at their caucus site will fill out a card that lists their first choice. Those results will be tabulated and will determine the results of the “first alignment.”

But that’s not the end of the night.

Caucus-goers whose first-choice candidate fails to get at least 15% of the vote can switch their support to a different candidate. The threshold can be higher at some precincts. If voters don’t choose another candidate, their vote won’t count in the final alignment. They can choose “uncommitted” — but that choice only gets reported if it, too, gets at least 15% of the vote.

The results of this stage will be tabulated to determine the caucuses’ “final alignment.” Only candidates who receive at least 15% of the vote at that precinct — the so-called viable candidates — will be counted in the final alignment. Non-viable candidates get zero votes in the final alignment.

There’s one more step.

The final alignment votes are then used to calculate the number of state convention delegates awarded to each candidate. The party calls these state delegate equivalents, because they represent the number of delegates each candidate will have at the party’s state convention in June. That, in turn, determines how many national convention delegates each candidate receives.

Iowa will award 41 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention, based on the results of the party caucuses.

Q: Who will the AP declare the winner of the Iowa caucuses?

A: The AP will declare the winner of the Iowa caucuses based on the number of state delegate equivalents each candidate receives.

That’s because Democrats choose their overall nominee based on delegates. The other results will provide valuable insights into the process and the strength of the various candidates, but the state delegate equivalents have the most direct bearing on the metric Democrats use to pick their nominee.

Iowa and national Democratic Party figures also emphasize this is the number to watch.

If only the DNC didn’t silence ME, I could have split the Bernie vote!

Stupid cunts.

Q: Could different candidates top each of the three categories of results?

A: Yes.

For example, Candidate A could beat Candidate B in the first alignment voting. But Candidate B could get more support from voters who initially voted for non-viable candidates. After those voters switch to a different candidate, Candidate B could end up with the most votes in the final alignment.

The final alignment votes are used to calculate the state delegate equivalents, so the results should be similar. However, in a very close race, it is mathematically possible to have different winners there, too.

Q: Why are Democrats making this change?

A: The new rules were mandated by the DNC as part of a package of changes sought by Bernie Sanders following his loss to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential primaries. The changes were designed to make the caucus system more transparent and to make sure that even the lowest-performing candidates get credit for all the votes they receive.

And it’s not just Iowa that is affected by the changes. The Nevada Democratic caucuses on Feb. 22 will also report three sets of results.

___

EDITOR’S NOTE — Stephen Ohlemacher is the AP’s Election Decision Editor.

I live in Nevada now and the coccus thing is confusing. I had to vote for five candidates one through five. Pete was number one. Biden number two. Amy number three. Warren number four. And Bennet number five.

Those new caucus rules are the dumbest pieces of shit I’ve ever heard.

Who approved that mess?

Did Tulsi ever reach 10 votes?

Caucus

Why the fuck is Bernie rewriting DNC caucus rules??

A caucus involves people raising their hands or standing in groups to indicate their votes?

What the fuck is that shit??

And that’s *after* attending a multi-hour meeting??

If Bernie wins, how the fuck is he going to get all the people to the right of him, the remaining 70% who he keeps insulting to just suddenly vote for him?

R38, R39, Why do you think so many skipped the actual Caucus day and voted with a ballot at Early Caucus?

The unlucky ones still spent 3 to 4 hours in line for the 15 minute process. Wonder how many of those just gave up and left. Or told their friends not to participate. Could explain the relatively low number of voters. Know many disabled voters complained.

How did Pete get fewer delegates than Biden, despite getting more votes?

DL's Buttigieg Club, tonight:

Steyer and Amy need to go now. They have absolutely no path forward.

Apparently after the debate Biden's numbers dropped in South Carolina and Bernie was favored to narrowly win. That number will probably increase after this latest showing.

Warren has always been practical but she'll likely wait until after South Carolina to drop out since 17% of Late Voters went for her in a state that had mail in votes that started prior to her showing at the debates. She did them all a favor in helping to take down Bloomberg a few notches.

Pete should stick around for quite a while but him exiting is the only way for Biden to get a bounce. (Not saying that I want him to!)

Nobody is dropping out.

Bernie is still nowhere close to 51%.

See you at the Convention.

Did any of you see Amy's speech? It sounded more like a concession speech with paper thin cover of we are still going to keep trying. Can you believe we got this far? We are not flyover Fraus.

[quote] If Bernie wins, how the fuck is he going to get all the people to the right of him, the remaining 70% who he keeps insulting to just suddenly vote for him?

Good question. The idiots who make up his Twitter army of barking chihuahuas seem to think they can win it all alone. We should ask them.

I don't care if Bernie is running away with the nomination; I still won't be voting for him when my state has its primary.

The only vote Bernie will ever get from me will be in the general, should he be the nominee.

R13, That absurd, and Matthews is a moron.

NO. No Democratic politician would prefer Trump under ANY circumstances.

The SCOTUS, more Federal judges, the environment, election integrity, healthcare, SS/Medicare---too much is being dismantled or destroyed by Trump.

Gabriel at R13 needs to just shave his head.

So, is the stupid CAUCUS shit over?

I just donated to Pete.

Does anyone know when the final results will be posted?

It’s been a total shit show with no end in sight.

Who knows when they’ll release the results?

Fuckers.

I just donated $500 and saw Pete two days ago in West Hollywood. That dude sure gets around. I think he taped the Ellen show that day, then a sort of town hall at USC and then the fundraiser reception at night. He really is just like you see him on TV. It was a cool event at a swanky new hotel on Sunset, lots of A-List Gays and the introduction was done by Seth MacFarlane. Apparently he is a big fan. Think I saw Madison from Million Dollar Listings there.

[quote] I just donated to Pete.

Wasted money. Pete's campaign is on its last legs. He can't last much longer.

[quote]That absurd, and Matthews is a moron.

[quote]NO. No Democratic politician would prefer Trump under ANY circumstances.

[quote]The SCOTUS, more Federal judges, the environment, election integrity, healthcare, SS/Medicare---too much is being dismantled or destroyed by Trump.

If Sanders somehow managed to get elected, we'd lose congress...BIGLY. Bernie would get jack shit done and get tossed out on his in ass in four years, to be replaced by the antithesis of the just deposed "socialist."

With Trump in office, Democrats stand a chance of maintaining control of at least one if not both sides of congress because he gives them something to run against, and something voters can direct their anger towards (though that seems to be losing effectiveness if these turnout numbers in the first contests are correct...).

R56 Pete’s not going anywhere.

Winning the Senate favours Democrats. But with Bernie as the nominee, we’ll lose it all.

It's not wasted R56, I realize he is a long shot. But as elder gays once told me, put your money where your mouth is and support anything positive for the gay community. In there day that just meant supporting gay friendly churches and business and first ever gay community center. Whether you like him or not, just seeing a gay man get that far is a big step for our society. Imaging being 14 year old boy just coming to terms with being gay and seeing that a gay man is actually close to becoming a President. He will not grow up with the same kind of fear and self loathing as previous generations.

I am comfortable with my donation.

Wow, you donated $500? I only donated $3.

[quote] [R56] Pete’s not going anywhere.

Pete is running out of money. He invested all his money and energy in Iowa and New Hampshire. He hasn't placed a single ad in any of the Super Tuesday states.

[quote]he could start by at least trying to rein in his army of online trolls a little

Considering he just announced his intent to attack the "Democratic establishment" and equated them with Republicans, that seems unlikely.

So the victory was delivered by Hispanics, Union Members, and the under-65s?

Interesting.

Don't know why people think these caucus results would change anyone's mind in future primaries to come. The top competitors are not going to drop out since Bernie is a divisive weak and vulnerable candidate to anyone with a functioning brain (which exclude the Bernie cult members). People are not going to leave their preferred candidate for someone as unattractive and polarizing as Bernie.

R59, What's this "we," o ye who writes "favoUrs"?

[quote]Bernie would get jack shit done and get tossed out on his in ass in four years, to be replaced by the antithesis of the just deposed "socialist."

Two words: Jimmy Carter.

Carter was a better man than Bernie and had as much (or arguably more) experience actually achieving things, but he didn't have a great term as president, and as a result we got Reagan.

If we get Bernie, he'll be a one-termer and we'll get a new Reagan, mark my words.

Bernie actually makes Trump seem attractive... that's how bad he is for the Dems.

That included attending an event R61. At least I got to see him close up and in person. I chose to give more than what was asked. I think the minimum amount was $50. I had a good time. It felt good. Saw a friend there from 20 years ago. And really nice to be in a room who agree politically for a change.

[quote] The top competitors are not going to drop out since Bernie is a divisive weak and vulnerable candidate to anyone with a functioning brain

They will if they run out of money. That tends to be the reason why candidates drop out.

R67 is correct. That is how we got Regan. And Jimmy Carter was also very smart. I believe he was a Mensa member.

FYI You realize all this talk about money, only 5% of Americans actually donate to ANY campaign?

The results at 2am NV time:

Bernie 46.6%

Not Bernie: 53.4%

Bernie loses by 6.8points

Statistically, Bernie does not have this wrapped up. Pete KNOWS this.

Waiting for the Delegate Distribution.

Bernie did really well in Nevada but you can't forget that Biden is projected to do well in SC, potentially tying with Sanders (per 538), or that Pete already did well in IA and NH. They don't come out of this with zero delegates.

Super Tuesday is where we're going to learn who the real frontrunners are. Bernie will be one I'm sure, but I'd bet anything he won't be the only one.

Why do all the delegates go to Bernie? I thought if you get over 15% you get to keep what you got?

Amy still talking about her speech in the snow. Like the birth of her child.

r75, you are confusing viability with distribution.

In larger precincts 15% is viability and you multiply the total caucus member for each precinct by .15 to determine the viability threshold.

100 total bodies x .15 means viability is 15. Then people separate into their groups and those with 15 or more people are viable.

[quote] Statistically, Bernie does not have this wrapped up. Pete KNOWS this.

Bernie still has a lot of money and is advertising in the Super Tuesday states. Pete doesn't and isn't. After Bernie did well in Iowa and NH, DL'ers said, "Just wait until Nevada!" Now, it's "Just wait until Super Tuesday!" And after Bernie wins big on Super Tuesday, it will be "Just wait until the convention!" So many delusional DL'ers in deep denial.

It has always been wait until the convention until Bernie goes over 50%.

It's the delegates, stupid.

Pete is to the left of me but I sent him another $25 last night to help keep him in the race. I voted Libertarian last time but would vote Democrat if Pete were on the ticket, even as VP. Biden and Pete are natural allies, they need to figure something out in order to stop a mad socialist like Bernie. I guess that happens after Super Tuesday. Honestly I think a Biden/Buttigieg ticket has a decent chance of winning. Alternatively Biden drops out and supports Pete. A Pete/Castro ticket would be interesting. You get a person of color, a Hispanic and more importantly, the symbolic thing of a new generation. I joke about voting for Trump. I doubt I would because of his treatment of immigrants at the border ( children in cages) but I would vote Libertarian again if Bernie is the nominee.

Castro hates Pete with a passion!

[quote] It has always been wait until the convention until Bernie goes over 50%.

If Bernie goes into the convention with a sizable lead over the other candidates (which is quite likely if he wins states like California), the delegates won't deny Bernie the nomination. They're not going to hand the nomination to a candidate who couldn't win any states ("You sucked in the primaries, but we're confident you'll win the general election!"). The never-Bernie people who are pinning all their hopes on a brokered convention are going to be in for a disappointment.

R81, this isn't high school. LBJ and Kennedy loathed each other but they still ran together.

R82 Then everyone can band together to make sure Bernie loses in 2020! Vote for Trump!

David Plouffe (Obama's campaign manager):

[quote] "I have to say about this 'contested convention' conversation we're having, in my view, it's preposterous," Plouffe told MSNBC's Brian Williams. "If Bernie Sanders has 1,400 delegates and somebody else has close to 1,400, then I think the convention could get interesting," he said, before adding that future pledged delegates would likely switch their support to Sanders if he pulls in hundreds of delegates on Super Tuesday, March. 3.

"The other thing, [Sanders is] dominating the young vote, so the notion that we're going to say 'You got the most delegates, maybe a majority, but the party leaders have decided that the person who has gotten all that support from young voters -- the future of the party -- guess what, we're going to give it to somebody else based on electability,'" Plouffe scoffed. "And right now, there is nobody, or no evidence to say Bernie is so much more un-electable than the rest."

I donated to Bernie and biden. I want the candidate with the most diverse supporters to win and those two had a very high number of Hispanics and blacks. If most states were populated with very high number of minorities this race will be between Bernie and Biden.

Pfft, do none of you remember 2016?

Bernie "won" states that had undemocratic caucuses (and minuscule participation by registered voters); his operation was set up to harass, browbeat, and dox all who dared to support someone else. Susan Sarandon pushing around Dolores Huerta for fuck's sake.

Hillary won states with actual primaries, where 10x more people vote.

There were even states that had caucuses AND primaries. Sanders won the little fucked up caucuses, and Hillary trounced him in real primaries.

And this year the caucus rules were WRITTEN by the Sanders campaign, so it's no wonder things are so FUBAR.

If you're right, R87, then I guess we'll see Bernie do poorly in the upcoming primaries and lose big on Super Tuesday. (Of course, that's not what any of the current polls are predicting.)

2016 is not the same as 2020. It's not a two horse race which Bernie can't win because he's not a real Dem. Super Tuesday 2020 will help clear the field. The anti-Bernie real Dem forces will coalesce then, but the Bernie camp will be working hard to sabotage that no doubt. Divide and conquer is Bernie's only path to Dem nomination, but it will also spell a weak coalition going into general election. They are betting everything on anti-Trump sentiment but a sitting President who survived impeachment has a galvanized base playing defense and will not be losing to a weak challenge from a divided party.

[quote] The anti-Bernie real Dem forces will coalesce then

Coalesce around who? Again, I say that if there was an outstanding moderate candidate, Democrats ALREADY would have coalesced around them. It's precisely because former front-runners Biden and Warren have turned out to be such duds that we're in this mess.

R90 Super Tuesday will tell you who. But the thing is egos could prevent people from admitting defeat even after Super Tuesday, which benefits Bernie no matter how he himself performs. Bernie feeds off division in the Dem Party, which is why Trump will win in the end.

This is like 2016 Republican primaries, when Orange would always win a plurality--never much more than 40%--but there were so many others that the remaining 60% was splintered into small slivers.

A difference was those gave all the convention delegates to the winner, whereas Democratic primaries award them proportionately, so Bernie will not be the overwhelming beneficiary of states where he can't pull off a majority. He'll roll into the convention with 35% of delegates and claim he's won.

If Bernie thinks the rest of the Democrats are going to get behind him, this is not a good way to do it. A coffin with the DNC logo on it? Really? The moderates that make up the other 70% of the party are going to feel so dejected they are just going to say fuck it and stay home. Even if only 10% stay home Trump wins.

[quote] Super Tuesday will tell you who.

What if Super Tuesday tells us that voters are coalescing around Bernie? As of now, polls show Bernie with a narrow lead in California, Texas and North Carolina. If Bernie wins California and none of the other candidates get at least 15% (which is a real possibility), Bernie could end up winning ALL of the California statewide delegates. That would give him a huge lead.

[quote] He'll roll into the convention with 35% of delegates and claim he's won.

Well, if he rolls in with 35% of the delegates, and none of the candidates are anywhere close to that, he'll have a pretty good argument. Who else would be able to claim they won?

If you need 1,900 delegates or whatever and you have 800, you haven't won, and that's not a good argument.

"Not Bernie" would be the pretty clear winner.

R96 is correct. Trying to clam victory when only 1/4 of the people will back you and the other 3/4 will not is a weak argument.

I could be wrong, but honestly, living in CA all my life I don't see Bernie wiping the floor with all the votes. CA is not as liberal as Faux News likes to label it. The whole state is not SF. I know it's anecdotal but most of my friends who are all on the Liberal or progressive side of things all seem to say they are not really thrilled with Bernie. They don't hate him, but not in love with him either. They are split on the various other candidates. The only Bernie Bro I know is on the east coast.

R98 CA was all in for Hillary, so not feeling Bernie there is normal.

[quote] If we get Bernie, he'll be a one-termer and we'll get a new Reagan, mark my words.

Yeah, well after the moderate reasonable Obama, we got Trump. What do you have to say now?

Warren gave her speech from Seattle.

Washington State's primary is March 10, seven days after Super Tuesday.

What's she thinking?

R98, hasan piker makes up the vast majority of the squawk in CA about Bernie

Well, one thing's for sure.

Milwaukee, July 2020, will be the place to be, brokered or non-brokered DNC.

The phrase Democratic establishment conjures images of something like the Illuminati with the power to determine the outcome of American elections. But so far, the supposedly all-powerful leaders of the party have been about as well organized as The Muppet Show.

Now, with Senator Bernie Sanders’s massive win in Nevada, he’s taken the lead in delegates and may never lose it. Efforts to stop him so far have been ineffective and made the party seem out of touch. This summer, party leaders may be forced to accept the nomination of a man who’s not officially a member of the party, who won’t have won a majority of primary voters, and whose agenda is popular with his progressive base but doesn’t have as much support with Democrats as a whole.

[quote] If Bernie wins the nomination, I’d like to see him reach out to moderates

He won’t.

[quote]I hope the Midwest and South have better sense and vote more moderately.

This is why one of the Midwest states needs to be the first Primary. So that unelectable people like Sanders get knocked out early.

A day later, and still not 100% counted. Iowa was raked over the coals for this, how come Nevada gets a pass?

"This summer, party leaders may be forced to accept the nomination of a man who’s not officially a member of the party, who won’t have won a majority of primary voters, and whose agenda is popular with his progressive base but doesn’t have as much support with Democrats as a whole."

And once again, Democrats shoot themselves in the foot and commit political harikari as Trump and the Republicans won't even have to work up a sweat on their way to a second term.

None of the moderates are going to drop out yet. All of them have a reasonable chance of being the VP for the eventual nominee.

Sanders needs to be stopped. He is responsible for this caucus shitshow. Can you imagine the disaster he’ll make out of the country? Trump would actually be better.

[quote]If Sanders somehow managed to get elected, we'd lose congress...BIGLY. Bernie would get jack shit done and get tossed out on his in ass in four years, to be replaced by the antithesis of the just deposed "socialist."

The only way Democrats could benefit is if Bernie dies quickly, and he has a decent VP. That person might succeed in 2024 at getting elected for another term.

I love to see DL have a meltdown over bernie. It is glorious.

Republicans are voting for Sanders, because they know he will not beat Trump

[quote] R76: Amy still talking about her speech in the snow. Like the birth of her child.

Yeah, like it’s such a big accomplishment.

She also bragged endlessly about her questioning of SCOTUS nominee Kavanaugh. I recall she asked him if he had a drinking problem, and he responded by asking her is she had a drinking problem, then she meekly answered his question and asked him to “please answer the question.” I thought it was a weak response. Mother Maxine would have responded “It’s not your place, today, to pose questions of us. We answer to the voters, not to you. Now please answer the question.”, or similar. That would have been a response to brag about.

We seem to be living this now.

Don’t they say to campaign to the extremes in the primary; then pivot towards the center for the General? Maybe Bernie will try to emphasize more centrist ideas then?

I’m annoyed that Trump is dismantling the government and the Constitution - I don’t want Bernie dismantling the Democratic Party, too.

He can do what ever he wants, just get rid of trump.

Terrible outcome. Get ready to lose the House, and see the Republicans retaining the Senate and the Presidency.

While deplorables are indoctrinated and unworldly voters, there is also an abundance of ignorant Democratic voters.

The DNC doesn't have its act together.

R115: was that really Gorbachev, or an actor? Oh, how the mighty have fallen. He is a good man, and was a good husband. He was crushed when his wife died. His governance proved that strategic patience can work. We ought to remember that when dealing with Iran and North Korea.

The house will go Dem as a reaction to Trump’s Presidency. The Dems even have a chance of taking the Senate. All indications are so. People vote for their legislative representatives for local reasons. I don’t think it will matter who the Dem nominee is. It’s a common occurrence. The House flipped to Republican in Obama’s re-election shellacking, and I think Clinton had a similar experience.

[quote]I love to see DL have a meltdown over bernie. It is glorious

The only meltdown is going to be in November, when Sanders loses the Presidency and Trump is re-elected in a landslide. And the Democrats brought it on themselves.

R121. It will be glorious when Bernie wins against trump and DL has a meltdown because he was supposed to lose.

[quote] It will be glorious when Bernie wins against trump and DL has a meltdown because he was supposed to lose.

DL sends its collective love to Bernie, here pictured with Donald Trump.

Pete came in second in the second choice and is the only other candidate besides Bernie that is winning counties, which tells you that he made a grave error by coming late to Nevada. He could have been competitive if he had shifted his focus in Nevada instead of SC.

He also made an error by boxing himself in the middle and not listening to his early advisers about universal healthcare. People want medicare for all.

Democrats won the House with a surprise little blue wave in a non-Presidential election year. The Republicans will take it back in November.

Well, it looks like it’s 2016 all over again. Voters get their choice of two horrendous candidates.

[quote] The Republicans will take it back in November.

They wish. People are [italic]angry[/italic] at Republicans. They've lost so many state legislature seats in places that Trump has won by 20%.

Just saying and wishing something is going to happen isn't going to make it so, R125.

I like Pete’s healthcare plan. Medicare or single-payer for all who want it. People can choose to stay on their company plans. Over time, companies will migrate their employees to the single payer plan, anyway. I’m on Medicare now, and also buy a supplemental plan that covers most things that Medicare does not. I can imagine companies starting to offer those plans, in lieu of the standard medical insurance like the offer today. It’s a gradually change for a complex plan, and I think that’s more politically viable.

Too bad President Obama wrecked the saying “If you like your plan, you can keep it”, lol.

Folks, if we don't stop Bernie, you can kiss Florida good-bye in November. Does anyone here seriously think that all those Cubans will vote for a self-described Socialist who honeymooned in the USSR?

They're not. They're not going to vote for Sanders. It will be Fatso, all the way.

[quote] Does anyone here seriously think that all those Cubans will vote for a self-described

Those asses always vote Republican so who cares what they do.

R124 not a Pete supporter but I agree. He had the better shot of getting a win or anything close to it in Nevada instead of SC, and any candidate has downright failed by not realizing that campaigning on M4A is fully necessary to succeed. Even do a watered down version of it along with rhetoric on your campaign's particular plusses. Warren's switch and Pete's '4 all Who Want it' are clearly inadequate.

If donors are pissed about it, they can stuff it. Clearly this was going to be a universal healthcare election. Now its too late to effectively pivot, too.

"This summer, party leaders may be forced to accept the nomination of a man who’s not officially a member of the party" - This is a plus to voters generally, though least with Democrats (still a majority are fine with it, especially younger voters)

"who won’t have won a majority of primary voters" - This is generally forgiven, due to the crowded field. Sanders also has the popular vote win in the first three contests and may get it in a fourth soon; a first in American politics for contested Democratic primaries. Getting more wins like Nevada through Super Tuesday will at minimum start to get him that majority. Not every state is Iowa.

"whose agenda is popular with his progressive base but doesn’t have as much support with Democrats as a whole." - Some of his agenda is only very supported by his progressive base. Some of his agenda is widely supported by Democrats but not Republicans. But unlike other candidates, some of his agenda is actually widely supported by Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. What he lacks (or rather lackED) in Democratic support he gained in drawing new blood into the party, and what is indicated in polls appeals to Independents and more Republicans than the other candidates (including ironically the ones who talk a big game about 'reaching across the isle').

That said, I do have concerns about some states, like Florida. While any serious analysts seem to agree that theoretically what Sanders might lose in Florida he'd gain in solidifying wins in many other areas, Florida has more normally been understood as a necessary battleground to win. For Sanders to win a general, he has to upend the typical election 'game' more than Trump did (who ultimately, electorally, got the win through purple states that Clinton ignored --- Sanders will have to win through flipping back enough of those purple states plus appealing to other states that are open to left wing politics and dislike Trump but have depressed support for typical Democrats). If Trump was a chaos candidate, Sanders is less that and more of a chaos campaign. Though with Trump having years to strategist (or his version of it), maybe having a chaos campaign against another likely chaos campaign could be what's necessary. You can be sure as hell that past figures like Kerry, Gore, maybe even 2nd-term Obama or even Clinton again could be stomped by the advantages that Trump still holds. Yes, plenty say "I'd vote for a rotten banana over Trump", and I'd agree though I'd speculate that Bloomberg is worse than a rotten banana, but more than those people either disagree or don't hold nearly the same fervor about it and need something else to inspire.

R130, this president has been uniquely anti-immigrant. This is the election when a lot of latinos in Florida might vote for a Democrat. But not for Bernie.

R98 California isn't and probably won't be 'all in' for Bernie. However with the proceedings of the race and now primaries, and the lack of appeal of other candidates to voters there (including how it'd otherwise go for say Harris but she failed, and Warren but she's failing), and the knack for gathering slow growth and momentum that Sanders has, I fully expect it to go for Sanders, perhaps strongly if he keeps up the win in South Carolina.

He's literally polling *double* the 2nd place there. The poll aggregate's story doesn't lie. I can see a 2nd placer getting closer to his number of delegates if there's plenty of dropouts soon, but we have no strong indication of that yet.

I'm guessing but you may be older, white, and at least middle-class. Or at least 2 of those three. You may have certain circles that have apathy for Sanders while more others in your state even see him as their last hope for politics they want. I don't think California has ever actually been the lock-in for progressive politics, so there's always a shot Sanders' place in polls can be toppled, but at *this rate*, he's going to win and perhaps win big. Its in Nevada territory at the moment, and this is with over a week to go.

R132 the polls - take them or leave them - say otherwise. Months ago.. and this is before the primaries to remind you... all of Sanders, Biden, and Warren polled winning against Trump with Floridian Latinos.

Biden performed the clearly best. Then Warren. Then Sanders a bit worse than Warren.

With performances lately, you can imagine Biden has tanked but perhaps kept majority support, Warren perhaps crashed, and Sanders risen to either 2nd or 1st spot. And certainly Sanders leading in his improved stature, not failing.

Older latinos and therefore more reliable voter latinos? If that's your point, it may be a valid one. But generally, even Florida's minorities are sick of Trump enough to go Sanders (or for some, especially younger, they're more inspired by Sanders' message than anything Trump says).

In terms of attracting the Latino Democratic vote, sorry DLers, but Sanders is sweeping up there. Like arguably outright dominating. His difficulties with minorities are getting increasingly narrow - something like more well off older gay and/or black men. Most of the rest have been showing up for Bernie. Its crisis mode enough for Biden that South Carolina isn't his lock-in like he wanted, but arguably his last stand.

I think they'll all stay in until super Tuesday. We'll start seeing them start dropping out by 8:30pm that day though.

R135 its possible. Klobuchar and Warren may be dedicated enough to stick in for their own state's win, unless newer polls show they'll be destroyed. If they win their states and get other stronger-than-expected placements (and with that, delegates), and they get enough boosts of funds (Klob gets less but spends less, Warren spends far more and relies on bigger moneybombs), their campaigns might continue, but only might. Steyer, I don't know. Gabbard, I don't care. Buttigieg is on one hand the highest non-Sanders performing in actual primaries still, on average at least, but he's in for a tough time without the value of percevied momentum. Biden may.. or may not be on an upswing enough to get the strong showing to continue past ST. Bloomberg is both a super known ($$$$ = awareness), and a total unknown.

I think we'll see at most 1-2 dropouts, maybe none, after South Carolina, but a bunch after Super Tuesday. It'll be down to 3-4, maybe just 2 by the end of March. The pressure to winnow things down will be immense and anti-Sanders will have to coalesce as any strategy to cut off Sanders in a contested convention may look to be far too risky. He wasn't 'supposed' to win so big in Nevada, and he's in downright presumptive nominee territory if he wins South Carolina (even slightly, heck even in a tight 2nd place).

[quote] The pressure to winnow things down will be immense and anti-Sanders will have to coalesce as any strategy to cut off Sanders in a contested convention may look to be far too risky.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. If there was a moderate candidate who could unite the party and inspire the base, voters would ALREADY be coalescing around that candidate. The fact that they haven't, and that the vote among the moderate wing is so fractured, just shows how weak and uninspiring the field of candidates is. Bernie, for all his faults, is the only one with a huge, fired-up army of passionate supporters. If a candidate like Biden can't attract large crowds, can't raise a lot of money, and sometimes can't even finish a complete sentence now, why should we think he'll be able to do any of those things after Super Tuesday?

Also -- and I'm sure I'll get roundly criticized for saying this -- I don't think it's safe to assume that all of the moderate Democrats will reject Bernie and "coalesce." As Bernie continues to win states, some of the moderate voters will jump ship. They will start to say, "I don't agree with a lot of Bernie's ideas, but he seems to be winning, and I don't want to support a loser, so I'm going to support Bernie." In fact, the entrance polls in Nevada showed that it's already starting to happen. Bernie was the winner among all ideological groups in Nevada, even voters who identify as moderate or conservative.

Those of you who are confident that the moderate Democrats will coalesce around a non-Bernie candidate are like the Republicans in 2016 who kept insisting that the establishment Republicans would eventually coalesce around a non-Trump candidate.

[quote] If there was a moderate candidate who could unite the party and inspire the base, voters would ALREADY be coalescing around that candidate.

That's just all wrong. We are still very early in the primary process. What we have is two-thirds of the Democratic voters NOT coalescing around Bernie Sanders. The eventual remaining (actual) Democrat can look forward to immense support within the party.

[quote] That's just all wrong. We are still very early in the primary process.

Actually, we're not. The first few states always tend to set the tone and the media narrative for the rest of the race. It's almost unheard of for a candidate to bomb in all of the first few states yet still win the nomination. And Super Tuesday is only about a week away.

[quote] What we have is two-thirds of the Democratic voters NOT coalescing around Bernie Sanders. The eventual remaining (actual) Democrat can look forward to immense support within the party.

Again, you sound the establishment Republicans in 2016 who were so sure that Trump would fade and the establishment would coalesce around an "actual" Republican. How did that work out?

R137 No Bernie fan here, but well put. I was thinking of it from a different angle.

Moderates are the last ones to show up at the polls and the first ones to stay home. Many have already been turned off by the whole process after 2016. The lower than expected Democratic turn outs in these first contests seems to support that.

I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that Bernie did better than expected in Nevada on a day when the weather was bad for the caucus. Biden and Klobuchar are as energizing as Walter Mondale. Pete is energizing to some but still has that stink of a pie-in-the-sky that Obama had until he had the nomination and a VP pick.

The people Pete does inspire is probably not going to be enough to keep him in the race past Super Tuesday unless there is some earth-shaking event like the death of one of the B’s or an Obama, maybe Pelosi endorsement, which won’t happen.

This is not about support for a politician. It never really is about that. That kind of support is never deeply personal and strong and motivating. Only on the fringes do you find that loyalty.

But people do show up to vote against somone they hate. Hate is a motivator. Any Democrat will do, so long as people hate Trump enough. Keep bashing Fatso. Keep those fires blazing hot. Keep the outrage stoked. People will show to vote against him. We all do it. We are all well accustomed to it. We have done it before and will do it again in November. But keep that outraged stoked.

[quote]the delegates won't deny Bernie the nomination

Plouffe is an idiot. The rules of the convention were written by Bernie with the DNC.

If Democrats want to deny a Independent, who wants to hijack the Democratic Party, then the Democrats will pull off what the Republicans could not do to rid themselves of Donald Trump.

When people voting AGAINST Bernie get 53% and Bernie gets 46%, the will of the people is NOT BERNIE.

[quote] When people voting AGAINST Bernie get 53% and Bernie gets 46%, the will of the people is NOT BERNIE.

There is no candidate named NOT BERNIE. Who is the magic moderate who you think will rescue the party from Bernie? And how big of a following do you expect that candidate to have going into the convention?

NOT Bernie will be the negotiated DEMOCRAT the CANDIDATES decide on at the convention.

NOT Bernie could possibly be Biden.

No, he won't, r116. I just Googled the 2016 Democratic campaign, and Bernie, for his support of HRC, insisted on the addition of two of his ideas being added to her official platform, one's being "free public college tuition."

"They are betting everything on anti-Trump sentiment but a sitting President who survived impeachment has a galvanized base playing defense and will not be losing to a weak challenge from a divided party."

You forgot to add a sitting president with a great economy.

People vote by their wallets. Trump has 2020 in the bag.

This is insane. Everyone remaining is so arrogant that none of them will drop out to stop Sanders.

[quote] NOT Bernie could possibly be Biden.

Biden is having trouble raising money. He's mixing up his words and seeming tired and confused. He's having trouble drawing large crowds. He's calling a woman at a rally a "lying, dog-faced pony soldier." John Kerry, one of his staunch supporters, apparently was so frustrated by him that he told friends he might have to enter the race himself. But I'm sure Biden would be amazing on the campaign trail in the fall.

R146 MAGAt alert

R146, at this point I agree. It’s far more likely than not. I’m going to tune out. Screw this whole primary process. The DNC needlessly changed the rules for Sanders, who now wants to destroy it. Sanders and his cult disgust me.

I do hope Biden and Bloomberg reconcile and work together.

R146 isn’t alone.

Inflection point coming for the parties.

The possibility that the CANDIDATES will throw their support to a solid Democrat is real r148.

R150 - I'm voting for Trump and I make no apologies for it.

Their isn't one decent democratic candidate running.

Bloomberg isn't really a democrat, and after living in NYC both during Guliani and Bloomberg - I wouldn't vote for Bloomberg.

I'd never vote for Bernie, and I'd never be so brainwashed to say "Blue no matter who"

What bag is that, R146? Your great big bag of bull shit?

For an entire year, poll after poll after poll has just about any Democrat leading over Trump. For a year.

R137 To be clear, I'm not one of those who hopes that. I'm a Sanders supporter who is just trying to consider what the opposition to him could reasonably strategize.

In truth, Iowa set Sanders as the potential leader (but with Buttigieg or others with good chances), New Hampshire set Sanders as the leader (but with Buttigieg or maybe others with okay chances), Nevada set Sanders as the potential presumptive nominee (with anyone else with small chances), and either South Carolina or Super Tuesday will most likely set Sanders as the presumptive nominee (with anyone else blown away), with anything after that now being more likely that not to lock up the matter.

Opponents have less than two weeks to figure this out, and the polls, media, and political culture are now turning right against them. It not outright impossible for things to change, but in a week this small chance will narrow, and in days after that, anti-Sanders party leadership and campaigns that will never endorse Sanders, will have to resort to totally radical measures if they are that dedicated to stopping him. I'm not sure what those measures are but that's where ideas of contested convention came out, and In wouldn't be totally shocked if rumors of cancelling the convention spreads - serious or not.

r154, nice to see you back Boris. You have not been missed.

Пожалуйста, иди трахни себя в задницу.

Trump is destroying our way of life and government and not only does not need to be reelected, he needs to swing on a rope for what he is doing.

Ff r154. This troll is in like 5 different threads taking different sides and stirring the pot.

FF to oblivion.

[quote] The possibility that the CANDIDATES will throw their support to a solid Democrat is real [R148].

Yeah, just like the possibility that the Republican CANDIDATES in 2016 would throw their support to a solid Republican was real. Except that it never happened. Trump had the passionate crowds. He had the momentum. He proved unstoppable as the GOP nominee. If Bernie continues to have the passionate crowds and the momentum, he will be unstoppable as the Democratic nominee.

lol R155 you're cute

R158: R154 is a stinky Russian who gets paid less than $2 a day. LOSER!

R158 I'm not taking different sides.

I'm not voting Bernie.

I'm not voting Bloomberg.

It's all the same - I'm voting Trump. There are no "different sides" about it. I'm pretty consistent and clear.

And R161 - I live in New Hope PA - I'm pretty far from Russia

R162 You're a sad, pathetic troll on a gay message board. Nobody is falling for your lies, MAGAt.

I'm voting for Trump on the Conservative Party line here in New York State. Then I'm dissembling about it. When people ask me if I voted for Trump I'll say "I didn't vote Republican!" If they press me after that then I'll just lie and say I voted Libertarian instead!

lol R162 you are a fool.

I'm a lesbian, and I've been here since 2005. Back during The CAK and Graxy days, Clair and bread pudding - so do fuck off.

[quote] This troll is in like 5 different threads taking different sides and stirring the pot.

The Republican and Russian trolls have a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, they want to convince us to nominate Bernie because they think he's the easiest to beat. On the other hand, they will tell us that if Bernie is the nominee, it's hopeless and we may as well vote for Trump or not vote at all.

R166 vote for whomever you like, dear.

One saying they won't vote for Bernie, and they don't think Bernie will win against Trump doesn't make one a Russia Troll.

[quote] I'm a lesbian, and I've been here since 2005.

You were probably one of those DL lesbians who tried to convince us in 2008 that we should support Sarah Palin.

R142, hey, technically this is true! Sanders gets 4X% of delegates, the opponent delegates add up to at least 3X% of delegates, it goes to a second round of contest, delegates add into the 2nd placer and even gets a majority before supers get involved, and the large majority of supers go for them! Wow, success!

Except this has a huge huge huge chance of resulting in such depressed turnout that Trump absolutely stomps the Democrats and the party has such internal conflict that they stand to lose even 2024 and 2028 from the dysfunction and Republican government changes in meanwhile.

As another said, there's no candidate named "NOT BERNIE". Not a single one. Biden might have qualified, but clearly keeps failing. Warren keeps angling to qualify, but clearly keeps failing. Buttigieg was working hard to some success to qualify, but now we're in the danger zone for him and he's petitioning to maybe get 2nd in Nevada and it will most likely just get worse. Bloomberg is a deal with the devil with huge chances to not even work but instead cause massive political blowback. And forget about Klobuchar, Steyer, and Gabbard. Insert Clinton or an Obama or whatever? Also disaster. None of these are "NOT BERNIE". There is no Transformers candidate that combine the persons of other candidates. That is biologically impossible. There is no option of a duo-ticket of Biden and Warren, there is only VP options.

If opponents are dead-set on a contested convention, it has to be a perfect mix of: huge compromises to Sanders to compensate him and his supporters, a hugely popular non-candidate or a clarified better pick of a candidate, an amazing VP pick that again compromises to Sanders, and the difference between Sanders and anyone else has to be much more narrow than its already looking to be (though we'll see after Super Tuesday). Otherwise you are deliberately nuclear bombing the one valid opposing party to the far right, just to stop Bernie Sanders, the socialist leader of a movement and most popular senator in America.

R168 I was actually an Obama fan in 2008.

Things change.

A MAGAt dyke? You're even stupider than imagined.

R171 and richer than I was in 2008 - no thanks to Obama.

[quote]unless there is some earth-shaking event like the death of one of the B’s

“In God We Trust.” It’s in His Hands now to make this happen.

R172 Sociopath

2021.

100% precincts reporting!

R166 says it will vote for Trump on the Conservative Party line. WTF? Whatever you are, you are not an American.

R176, lol

r176 I’m not r166 but I’m in agreement with him.

What’s funny is the people saying they will vote for trump (and I’m one of them) aren’t telling other people who they can and cannot vote for. They aren’t shaming others for who they decide to vote for.

I can’t say the opposite is true.

By shaming people you won’t get the results you seek. Didn’t you learn that with Hillary’s “basket of deplorables” comment? I guess not.

Vote for whomever you want. I’m voting for Trump. I have a feeling he will also win the popular vote this time,

r159, Trump entered the Republicunt Convention with 1400+ delegates, more than enough for a first ballot vote.

If Bernie does not enter the Convention with a first ballot nomination, the candidate will NOT BE BERNIE.

Bernies Rules: The Dreaded Super Delegates are held off till the second ballot.

Scenario 1: The CANDIDATES, the actual delegate holders, get together and NEGOTIATE amongst themselves, who the Nominee will be on the FIRST BALLOT. Prediction: Biden if Negotiated.

or

Scenario 2: The CANDIDATES do not free their candidates and allow them to vote as they were elected sending the vote to a second ballot. On the Second ballot, with the Super Delegates, a moderate real Democrat is Nominated. Prediction: Biden on the 2nd.

Correction I mean I agree with r164 the poster who said they will vote the Conservative party line

Basket of deplorables was one of the most correct things Hillary Clinton has ever said, especially as in context it was about a segment of his supporters and not the majority. He appeals to the worst instincts of humanity and you love it.

Though as usual, it was rather inept politicking from her.

There is no “Conservative Party” in the US, r178. It’s a British term.

R179 If Biden is the NOT BERNIE, enjoy Trump. Biden has ran for president three times, he has never won a primary state, and even if he wins South Carolina (now no longer a guarantee) it'll be narrow and indicative of his poor performance in general. Can the party do this. Yes! But you should be blasting them about it, not supporting. Now if Biden comfortably wins South Carolina and at least does very well in Super Tuesday, etc, there can be the start of a case. Still riotous within the party.

I really don't think so many of you regular DLers get it. Sanders is set to win California, early voting started already. He has targets on Texas, now has a very good shot of winning that now and if he does, that bolsters his argument he can be the first to win it in the general. He's gradually steamrolling over the majority of Super Tuesday states in polls and the one's he's not, he's still in strong contesting for 1st in at least almost all of them. If a candidate is winning over 80%, even 90% of the states in a primary but the only concern is that he's technically not under the Democrat label, is considered divisive by a subset of your party, and he only has 4X% of delegates instead of a majority, you still install him as the nominee lest you face incredible political wrath, especially as most voters have enough of a brain to account for the crowded field instead of just 2-3 candidates.

Moderates should be either accepting this situation or piling onto A SINGLE, SOLE, ONLY ONE candidate at this point to even possibly deal with Sanders, not acting in utter delusion that party leadership will necessarily overrule both popular vote and plurality of delegates in order to install JOE BIDEN, ELIZABETH WARREN, PETE BUTTIGIEG, or god forbid MICHAEL BLOOMBERG. Not a single one of these are in the place right now, and likely onwards if things continue like this, to have the confidence of enough of the party, let alone independents that need to be convinced in a general. Collectively pick your lane now or its Sanders all the way. Sincerely as a Canadian that desperately wants a Democratic party with at least minimal cohesion in an election against Trump.

Its all delegate math now and despite the not complete chance of Sanders getting the majority, its fully on the way to get a plurality in the 30s-40s% and simply doing that plus the popular vote at least almost everywhere, will get the vaunted 'momentum' that can also manage the majority of delegates no matter the number of opponents.

R182, New York State allows "fusion voting " , the combining of votes on different party lines for one candidate . Thus multitudes of small parties on the ballot here listing sometimes the same candidates, sometimes different ones. The Democrats and Working Families Party tend to run the same candidate for president. The Conservative and Republican parties in the state tend to run the same candidates. The Greens and Libertarians run unique candidates. It's a New York thing. There was even a Marijuana Party back in the day (for legalization of weed) and a Prolife Party.

Ok, fair enough. I was wrong.

[quote] None of these are "NOT BERNIE". There is no Transformers candidate that combine the persons of other candidates. That is biologically impossible.

Well said. And if there WAS a Transformers candidate who had these magical qualities, they would be WINNING the fucking primaries, and the other moderates would be dropping out! Bernie is doing as well as he is in large part because voters aren't satisfied with any of the moderate alternatives. That's a problem that should have been addressed months ago. It can't be magically fixed at the convention.

[quote] Sanders is set to win California, early voting started already.

And if Sanders wins California and none of the other candidates meets the 15% threshold (which may not happen but is a possibility), Sanders could walk away with all of the state's delegates. That would be huge.

[quote] Moderates should be either accepting this situation or piling onto A SINGLE, SOLE, ONLY ONE candidate at this point to even possibly deal with Sanders, not acting in utter delusion that party leadership will necessarily overrule both popular vote and plurality of delegates in order to install JOE BIDEN, ELIZABETH WARREN, PETE BUTTIGIEG, or god forbid MICHAEL BLOOMBERG.

Exactly. The time to coalesce around a single moderate is NOW (actually, I'd say it was a week or two ago), not after Super Tuesday, and definitely not at the convention. People who say "It's still early, the process has barely begun" don't understand how primaries work. Candidates who think they can lose the first few states and rebound later (think Giuliani in 2008 or Jeb Bush in 2016) almost never do.

I guess it's time for Hillary to declare she's that transformative unifying candidate!

Hillary might end up being the nominee.

If the DNC is set to avoid Sanders at *absolutely* all costs, and the Obamas are occupied, then yes when backs are totally against the wall it'd be Clinton. And the neigh eradication of American politics. A fun show, but despair would cloud across the whole land except for total Clinton die-hards. Unless, and this is a tiny unless, there is a very successful pro-Clinton narrative built up over the next months. From recent enough history, I doubt this is possible.

So really its what we like to all a 'dumbass move'. So its possible.

*call

The DNC can fuck anything up. Imagine losing two elections in a row to Trump.

[quote] Moderates should be either accepting this situation or piling onto A SINGLE, SOLE, ONLY ONE candidate at this point to even possibly deal with Sanders, not acting in utter delusion that party leadership will necessarily overrule both popular vote and plurality of delegates in order to install JOE BIDEN, ELIZABETH WARREN, PETE BUTTIGIEG, or god forbid MICHAEL BLOOMBERG.

I think the Democratic establishment thought Biden would be much stronger than he has been. They thought he would be the moderate everyone would coalesce around, and bet the farm on him. They knew Liz, Pete, and Amy never really had much of a chance. Biden was consistently way out in front in all the national polls. I don't think the Democratic establishment expected him to win either Iowa or NH, but they figured he would finish a strong 2nd or 3rd in both states. When Biden finished 4th in Iowa and 5th (not even reaching double digits) in NH, it threw everything into complete chaos and sent Biden's poll numbers into freefall. I'm guessing that some of the Democratic powers that be are still clinging to the hope that Biden will win SC convincingly and find his second wind. Others are in full-blown panic mode and don't know what the fuck to do. They didn't have a Plan B if Biden faltered.

To clarify, I mean a successful narrative is what I doubt is possible, but the DNC resorting to Hillary, as dumb as I think they'd be to do so, is something I imagine their dumbasses deciding.

Like we'd have to enter 'Sanders is assassinated and oh everything is so chaotic but please save us Hillary!' territory.

They’ve screwed up two caucuses in a row. Still with only 60% of the precincts in for Nevada.

R193. There's a range of reactions, yeah. One is indeed clinging to Biden. One is flailing around. One is stroking chins and 'maybe Bloomberg...'. And by now, one clear one is accepting Sanders.

I think the expectation was that going into primaries the lead would be Biden and Sanders (the hope wasn't this, but it was what was accepted the day before Iowa), with Warren overtaking Sanders, other moderates speaking progressively enough and pulling from Sanders, and sapping him of energy going through February.

R195 Maybe on purpose to give them an excuse to kill off caucuses for good in future contests.

'I'll fight them to the death': Judge Judy warns Bernie Bros that they don't have a chance at the presidency because she's ready to battle to get Mike Bloomberg in the White House

NOW Bernie is in trouble

Amy is back below Steyer. She needs to drop out.

Is Kacee wearing a wig?

She is. She is totally wearing a wig.

Damn someone needs to help her with the placement.

Well, Pete ended up 6+ points behind Biden, so really not terribly close, and he's under 15 percent., so will pick up zero delegates, haha.

I don't really understand how Klobuchar can have 5882 votes to Steyer's 3493, yet end up behind him in CCDs, but whatever; these caucuses are a hot, mysterious mess and I'm glad we don't have many more to deal with. Re Nevada, I don't think it really matters much who placed where from third place on, since only Sanders and Biden will get delegates.

Am I weird that I think all of the present candidates make a great team?

He's getting 3 delegates, R202. Hahaha.

Sanders cannot win the presidency. Criminal Trump and the Repigs will ravage him as a socialist. This will “Hillary’s emails” times 100. Uglier than you’ve ever seen. Bloomberg can defeat Trump. He’s got the balls and the money.

Been hearing rumors that Republicans were re-registering as Democrats on Caucus Day and even during Early Caucus to vote for Sanders. Why? They believe that he's the easiest for Trump to defeat.

T or F?

[quote] Bloomberg can defeat Trump. He’s got the balls and the money.

Really? He stood there like an idiot while Warren tore him to shreds. I have no confidence he could take on Trump, one on one.

True, R206. And they're taking that strategy to SC where they don't even have to register as Democrats to vote in the primary.

Is there a projected Delegate Distribution for Nevada.

The person at r202 is confusing Precinct viability with National Delegates.

[quote] He's getting 3 delegates, [R202]. Hahaha.

Thus far, he's only assured of one, hahaha. And now that Biden's beaten him by a solid seven percentage points, he looks extra babyish for whining about voting irregularities.

Isn't Sanders getting 13, Biden 2, and Pete 1 out of Nevada ?

[quote] The person at [R202] is confusing Precinct viability with National Delegates.

You're right, I did, r209. Here's the projected delegate distribution.

Amy was in my city this evening. Local news stated there were a little over 1,000 people in attendance. She talked about building off of the ACA, tribal rights, and then stretched her closing statement from the debates to around 30 minutes.

Pete comes to town next Monday, making Biden the only major candidate to not visit my state before super Tuesday.

I’m disgusted that the moderates won’t work together to choose one of them as the sole moderate candidate. Biden could run with Bloomberg. They can tell Pete he’ll be Chief of Staff. They can give Steyer the EPA position or UN ambassadorship. They can make Amy Secretary of State.

They need to do something soon. This is insane.

The difference R205 is that most people hated Hillary. People generally like Sanders even if they think he goes too far. Like ability is a powerful thing. Hillary also didn’t have a movement like Bernie does. People are focusing too much on the socialist/how will you pay for it line of attack on Bernie. No one gave a fuck how trump was gonna build the wall. They still voted for him.

Warren coming in at another dismal 4th place finish. Does she drop out before Super Tuesday or risk losing her home state? That would be a huge embarrassment for her

According to that document, r212, Biden will only get 2 delegates from NV while Pete will get 1 and Bernie 13. There are still 20 that haven't been awarded.

Pete is still, with the final results pending, second to Sanders in Delegates with 23. And it is delegates that are important.

So the important maths is:

Independents: 34 Delegates

Democrats: 46 Delegates

r214, it will happen at the convention.

R217 and then milwaukee will burn to the ground and the Trump dynasty will be official

R217, if Bernie comes to the convention with a sizable plurality, the party is likely going to give him the nomination. To have one moderate run against Bernie gives the former a real chance to come to the convention with more delegates than Bernie, so he can’t win the nomination.

They need to act now.

Oh, Boris @ r218, the House has only impeached Trump once. He is a cancer worthy of increased radiation.

The reason to flip the Senate and remove one layer of his unconstitutional protection. .

So there's still an undecided delegate left in Iowa, and we're just all okay with that? Lol wtf

If Bernie comes to the convention with the most delegates, he’s going to win the nomination. Dems are too scared of alienating Bernie’s supporters, who engaged might end up voting for Trump if Bernie loses the nomination despite coming to the convention with the most delegates.

*enraged might

[quote]if Bernie comes to the convention with a sizable plurality, the party is likely

Really? The Democrats are likely to rally around an Independent who has sought to hijack the party a second time and who denigrates Democrats?

The party is likely to rally around the easiest common denominator, Biden.

R222 If it were just that, the DNC would deny Bernie the nomination in a heartbeat. They would much rather have Trump than Bernie.

The only thing that frightens them is the downballot carnage that would ensue if they screwed over Bernie.

I like how no real Democrat would threaten down ballot carnage.

I think much will depend on what polling looks like at the time of the convention and who’s alive, literally.

R224, they’re not going to embrace him but they’re not going to deny him the nomination. They don’t want another 1968. And this is the DNC — horribly managed, lacking a spine, desperate not to alienate Bernie’s supporters.

Also, there’s the possibility that he will have over 50% of delegates before the convention. A single moderate would make that less likely.

If Bernie has the most delegates and doesn’t get the nomination we will get trump and republican super majorities in both chambers. The dnc knows this. There will be a compromise ticket and Bernie’s VP will be chosen for him.

It’s why the establishment is desperate to stop him now. Problem is none of these “he loves communists” attacks work. His base of supporters (around 30%) is rock solid and isn’t going anywhere.

Wait, you think that down ballot carnage will be worse if Bernie is denied the nomination? All those centrists not voting will kill the Dems.

Bloomberg must be calling Biden, right? They need to band together.

After the nominee is chosen, the next goal is unifying to defeat Trump and flip the Senate.

All else is petty third party revenge.

Personally, if Bernie is or isn't the nominee, people who create down-ballot carnage are evil.

Biden & Buttigeig should do a deal.

Biden to lead the ticket, Buttigeig VP choice.

Lines up Buttigeig to run for Pres next time which was really his best chance anyway..

They can then dump Sanders.

His supporters will stamp their feet and sit it out, but their participation leads to the ruin anyway.

They may lose under Biden but at least they likely get to keep the house. Under Bernie, they lose everything.

And the Bernie Bros will take no responsibility for their destruction.

“Bernie probably won’t win, but it’s possible.”

At this point, I don't think teaming up moderates will do any good. About half the country votes on super Tuesday, and those delegates will be awarded before Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar end their campaigns.

Also, is it pronounced KlobuSHAR, or KlobuCHAR?

[quote] And the Bernie Bros will take no responsibility for their destruction.

Exactly. They’ll want the same nonsense for 2024.

R235, shar.

A bucket of egomaniacs. It’s not surprising they can’t coordinate for the greater good.

r237. It's all about the delegates and Bernie screwed himself thinking it was going to be him and one other breakout real Democrat.

Bernie never anticipated splitting delegates with six other candidates.

And he WROTE the Convention Rules as the only holdover from the 2016 campaign.

Fuck him if he doesn't become the nominee: he should have pulled a Hillary and played elder statesman.

There is no upside to giving the nomination to Bernie if he doesn't manage to cobble together a majority. It will be carnage right down to local races for the Dems. Centrists (Dem, Never Trump, and Independents) will stay home en masse in my opinion. Even if Bernie Bros cause us to lose the presidency with a moderate candidate, we have to try to save the House and flip the Senate (not to mention local state races).

Everybody needs to calm down and take a deep breath here.

Nobody knows what the future will hold. Stay calm and vote.

I think the people most surprised and bewildered by Donald Trump's win were Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell.

The exact same thing is about to happen with Bernie Sanders and Nancy Pelosi/Chuck Schumer.

Or you'll be surprised, R241. That's more likely.

Bernie has acquired less than 2 percent of the necessary delegates to win the nomination, only 9 more delegates than the 2nd place candidate.

Only 4% of NV registered Ds voted/caucused. 4%. Bernie got majority of ONLY 4%.

4%.

R243 welcome to the primaries? Glad you're catching up.

[quote]Also, is it pronounced KlobuSHAR, or KlobuCHAR?

It is pronounced KlobuGETMYCOFFEENOW!

It’s pronounced KLOB-DROPPING-OUT!

R224 that can only happen if Biden lives long enough to attend the Convention this summer. Then there is the added problem of whether he can live long enough to be elected.

Neither of the leading Democratic candidates are good bets to live long enough to be elected. Why are we allowing this to happen? We reeeeeeally need an upper age limit for candidates running for their first term.

The oldest President we have ever had is in the White House right now.

Nevada is a horrible example as far as showing whether Bernie is viable. This was 2016 all over again.

Long caucuses that are impossible for old and disabled people to attend. Nevada has a LOT of retired people. When you expect people to sit and stand all day, plus stand in line for hours, you’re shutting out most seniors. Bernie’s followers are mostly young. Buttigieg has a lot of older people in his base, but they were stopped from voting. Bernie did very well in caucuses in 2016 because caucuses favored him for exactly the reasons above.

Nevada was a false positive for Bernie. Same thing happened in 2016. Bernie did much better in caucuses, then when the caucus and white states ran out, Hillary did better. That’s why he lost the nomination. Bernie wanted every state to be a caucus going forward, but people complained that being forced to stand for hours or you’re not allowed to vote is like a poll tax. If you can’t pass the ridiculous requirements made to stop you from voting, you’re not allowed to vote.

And Bernie’s the one that wanted caucuses so badly, because his voters are young. Young voters never outnumber older voters in a regular primary state.

r243 that is correct and Bernie has 1,956 more delegates to get before he is the nominee.

Pete needs 1967 more.

Still a six way horse race no matter how many times someone says Bernie is "the winner'.

MSM is setting voters up for some kind of gladiator conflict in the Coliseum. Unnecessary hype.

Any buzz on whether the moderates are talking to each other about a solution?

r251, too early.

The big powwow will happen after June 7th (last primary) and before July 13th (first day of Milwaukee).

There is plenty of time to make Bernie redundant.

R252, I guess the bet is that he won't win the plurality of delegates. Because that's the only way he'll have no claim to the nomination at the convention.

Fundraising/donation numbers were just released in my state. Bernie raised around 178k, Pete 114k, and Warren raised 110k. Do the fundraising/donation totals directly reflect results from primaries?

R254 probably not. Look at Warren's dismal NV performance.

I can attest to the brutality of the Nevada caucus. Standing in line was painful. I will never do that again.

Caucuses need to end. It's regressive nonsense that produce distorted outcomes. 1 person, 1 vote, made by a secret paper ballot.

R249, Agreed. Please remember the 1,000 early Caucus voters whose ballots were rejected because they didn't know that they had to add their signature. Plus many walked out of the Caucus when their candidate didn't get enough support at that particular location, and they didn't want to vote for their 2nd or 3rd choice.

Caucus means a total lack of privacy when voting. Some don't want to tell their neighbors and coworkers who they support. Nor do they want to be bullied by very aggressive backers arguing for hours.

Love to know the numbers that attempted to participate and left early due to very long lines and failure of the volunteers to assist. Know many volunteers left or were no show due to the heavy rain and lightening in Vegas.

It's outrageous that we still have caucuses.

[quote]I guess the bet is that he won't win the plurality of delegates.

I guess the bet is that he won't win the MAJORITY of delegates.

He may get a plurality but it means he loses on the first ballot.

And according to Bernie's Convention Rules, the Super Delegates will vote on the second ballot.

Bernie fucked himself.

R250, You have great insights.

Who do you think will end up with the nomination? Someone not yet currently running? A compromise of 2 of the current top runners as Pres and VP? Of course that eliminates the possibility of a minority VP contender.

Assuming Michelle Obama still does not want to run.

[quote] Who do you think will end up with the nomination?

That's a toughie. Let me think on it a while and get back to you

[quote]Of course that eliminates the possibility of a minority VP contender.

r261, funny how on a gay board, people do not see Pete as a minority candidate.

My prediction, at this time, that when it comes to horse trading AMONGST THE CANDIDATES PRIOR TO THE CONVENTION, the other Dems (The NOT Bernies) will see that they can move all of their programs and policies under a Biden presidency. Pete will give him his delegates for the VP spot and we WILL have a minority VP candidate. And Senators stay in the Senate.

It is a perfect alignment for Pete's future run.

FLIP THE SENATE!

r250 / r260

R263, I'm not gay but I wasn't speaking for myself in saying Pete's not a RACIAL minority. Or that he wouldn't be seen as a minority to attract most Blacks and/or Hispanics/Latinx.

However I did vote for Pete and not any other candidate as an alternative in Vegas' Caucus.

Speaking of the Senate, has anyone thought about what happens should Bernie and/or Liz get the noms and win in November? Both represent states with Republican governors who will pick their replacements in the Senate. So that would mean one or two fewer Democrats in the Senate.

Again, funny how people see women, Elizabeth and Amy as minorities, see Jews as minorities but not the only fucking gay guy in the fucking room while you have to clarify that you meant RACIAL minority.

Minorities are minorities. Civil rights are civil rights.

R266, Asians and Indians (from India) in the US are a minority too. Do most consider them in the same category when people speak of racial equality? Not until the Wu Flu exploded did so many consider Asians less than privileged IMHO as compared to other racial minorities.

[quote]Some don't want to tell their neighbors and coworkers who they support. Nor do they want to be bullied by very aggressive backers arguing for hours.

Whatever do you mean? We are a campaign of love, you shitlipped faggot!

r267, If Lisa Ling were on the debate state, I would consider her a double minority, just as Yang was a minority. I consider South Asians a double minority as they usually are either Muslim or Hindu. So I do, unless they are like Piyush "Bobby" Jindal who wanted to appear as white as possible or that Nimrata "Nikki" Randhawa Haley cunt.

R162, Well, there ya go---You've got money. I live in the Lehigh Valley, visit New Hope every now and then. I dare you to walk down the main street on a Saturday afternoon while wearing a MAGA hat.

Nikki Haley is Asian??

Yes, r271, her parents immigrated here from India.

Haley's birth name is Nimrata Randhawa. Her family is Sikh.

Along the way, Nimrata realized that Sikh was never going to work in American politics, so she chucked it all for Jesus. Or for Nikki. I can't tell.

Brown foreigners get here and cannot wait to breathe in the White Privilege.

But she looks white. I never would have thought she was Indian.

^ ???

Never trust ANYONE who clenches her teeth when she talks. Subconscious sign she is hiding something.