Trump Path To Victory Is Winning Ohio, PA, FL and NC - Can He Repeat Win?

I'm a transplant to Central Florida and very high Trump support here especially in The Villages. Also this area seems to attract a lot of transplants from OH, IN and MI and they are all rabid members of the cult in addition to the native southerners. Signs on every corner and especially at small businesses, billboards, bumper stickers, maga hats on their stupid heads and visibly displayed in rear windows of their cars.

I don't think he can take Penn.

OP,

The four states which are most critical for Election 2020 are: Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Using Nate Silver’s tipping-point state determination (which is like an accounting exercise), those 2016 Republican pickups were Donald Trump’s 206th, 270th, 290th, and 306th original electoral votes. (The tipping-point state was Wisconsin.)

Correction:

The four states which are most critical for Election 2020 are: Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Using Nate Silver’s tipping-point state determination (which is like an accounting exercise), those 2016 Republican pickups were Donald Trump’s [bold]260th[/bold], 270th, 290th, and 306th original electoral votes. (The tipping-point state was Wisconsin.)

Nate Silver is also the same person who said Trump only had a 5% of winning in 2016 based on his polling for the electoral college.

He will win Ohio and Florida - strong GOP grip due to gerrymandering. I think there is a chance MI,WI and PA can go blue.

A five percentChance of wining means a person Can win. That five percent chance occurred

Trump isn't the shiny new object he was in 2016. He is old hat. Americans tire easily.

R5, you are flat out lying about Nate Silver. He cautioned people about Trump’s path to a win. But

Oops sorry I was off, Nate only gave Trump a 28% chance of winning. While saying Clinton had a WHOPPING 72% chance of winning.

polling evangelist Nate Silver’s 538 website put Clinton’s odds at winning the White House at about 72 percent. By midnight, the site had more than flipped its odds making, giving Trump an 84 percent chance of winning.

[quote]strong GOP grip due to gerrymandering.

But that would only apply to congressional elections. It wouldn't affect national office - the electoral college fucks that up all on its own.

Hard to poll the GRU.

Trump has only strengthened his support among whites, rural, evangelical, Southern, older, and blue collar voters

Blue collar voters don't only come in one color, R13. Try to remind yourself.

BTW, can we stop pretending half the country supports him? 27% at .most

Actually based on approval ratings, it’s about 45%

He clearly can win these states again

No, R16. You don't seem to understand. I'm going by actual votes. I never cared about polls where 1000 people supposedly represent 300M people.

Only 27% of this country actually went out to vote for him.

It is very interesting to reread that old thread. Anyone have a link of the live election watch thread of 2016?

What exactly has he done for OH or PA or WI? What industries has he resurrected in those states?

FL is a dumpster fire, so I expect nothing from them.

[quote] BTW, can we stop pretending half the country supports him? 27% at .most

Again National polls and approval ratings are IRRELEVANT

It is the electoral college that counts, There needs to be specific targeted polling on swing states matching up Trump vs Biden or Sanders.

It’s going to be a blowout in Trump’s favor.

[quote] It’s going to be a blowout in Trump’s favor.

I agree - especially if Sanders gets the nomination.

Sure, a blowout like he got two years ago. He's only gotten worse the last two years, so why would you think more people would vote for him when he was rejected in 2018 and the Dems got the house back?

[quote] would you think more people would vote for him when he was rejected in 2018 and the Dems got the house back?

because of who is going to be the Democratic nominee. Whoever gets chosen, that will alienate supporters of the defeated DEMS nominee, and those supporters will just stay home or vote Green. Whoever gets chosen will not be able to bring together all of the different factions of the Democratic coalition.

Trump supporters & Republicans are more unified,

Trump will win re-election

Nah, he's morbidly obese and lives off of McD's. He already has slurred speech much of the time, which is a sign he's having small strokes. He'll be dead by election day.

Culture wins. He has a lock in swing states

yep I agree

Arizona and Georgia are in play this year.

Ohio has had a 'brain drain' in the past decade. All the cool people have moved away, and left behind are redneck Christian Supremacists obsessed with abortion.

It's very easy to hack the votes in Buckeyeland because everywhere except the Three C's (Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland) is Republican deplorables.

All the predictions are useless at this point. We need to fight like hell to GOTV in every state, and especially the swing states. Personally, I think Trump’s win was a fluke and is unlikely to be repeated, but I also think he will cheat if he can.

I strongly believe the reason Trump won was because the polls and the press convinced everyone Hillary was going to win, so too many people figured why bother to vote, I am not that excited about her and she can win without my vote. That type of thinking pisses me off even if it is true because there are so many other races that are important.

Turnout in 2016 was down even though the population had greatly increased, hopefully people will not be making that mistake in 2020.

In Pennsylvania there's been a net gain of jobs between one and five percent depending on the category since he took office. Manufacturing is at 2 percent. This is not a boom especially when you look at Pennsylvania over the past twenty years.

r16 it is 45% of people polled, as we know polls are skewed and hardly ever right.

[quote] I don't think he can take Penn.

Most of the people between Philly and Pittsburgh are absolutely Trump Trash and totally in the bag for him.

Here's what I've read: his plan is to win all the red states plus WI, that gets him to 270. However, he only won WI with approximately 10,000 votes and that was their high-water mark, since them tens of thousands of old white people have died off and the new voters (if they vote) reject Trump by 66 percent. So of course they are trying to purge hundreds of thousands of likely Dems from the rolls.

If we flip AZ, my state, he can't win either. Trump's approval rating here is -3 and Senate candidate Mark Kelly is leading McSally by four points. If a moderate is the candidate, AZ might go blue. The others are losing to Trump.

Here you go r19

Ohio is going to stay good and red.

Too much Trump Trash living here.

Since the 2016 election, Florida has added more than a million newly enfranchised ex-cons and tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans displaced by Hurricane Maria to the voter rolls.

R30 Surely you jest. Georgia will never go blue. That's a pipe dream. Our only hope is for Trump to drop dead before Nov.

Philly hates its Dem mayor. Whites will be voting Trump.

R36 That's where I live and you are right. I can't count the number of Trump 2020 signs I've seen. As for Dems, I've only seen a small handful of Bernie signs. No one else.

Chump will get his 45% like he got last time, it's up to democrats to break at least 50% to win.

R44 you really think Trump has lost no support amongst the voting block who elected him? You think all those broke midwestern farmers and newly out of work truckers will vote for him again? He has made no effort to expand his base and hasn't at all.

I live in Wisconsin. With the exception of Madison and perhaps Milwaukee, this state has always been a red state. Support for him is strong here, he will take Wisconsin easily.

The impeachment only got him more supporters. The economy is great, no wars, he’s winning a second term.

r46, r47 Sure Jans

R48 = one screaming that Hillary was going to win in 2016

I think he will easily win re-election. He could get Minnesota this time

[quote]Florida has added more than a million newly enfranchised ex-cons

Not so fast. Mini-Trump li'l asshole Gov Desantis made short work of that by bringing in a poll tax. Given that there are no more checks and balances in the US government, the consitutional will of the people won't help a bit.

Grifters keep grifting

Trump will win NC, FL, IA, and OH again. It won’t be close

Trump will win NC, FL, IA, and OH again. It won’t be close

Of course people disapprove of Trump. But that doesn't mean people won't vote for him anyway.

With a good economy and low unemployment, you think people are going to vote for Biden, Sanders or Warren? For what reason exactly?

Meuller, Russians, Stormy Daniels, hush money, pee tapes, Michael Avenatti, impeachment and on and on....it's all been a dud. His polling hasn't changed. If the economy holds and there are no new wars, he's the next President.

This is the stupidest thread on DL in ages. Did you guys forget that the Republican Senate, with the blessings of and aid from the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, just legalized election fraud? None of this 'can take that state', 'might get enough old people in this state', 'lots of black voters in southern wherever', none of that applies anymore. None of it.

Plus, as a retiree in central Florida, my observation is that the white ex-cons who can vote in Florida will be voting for Trump. Don't assume all ex-cons will vote Democratic.

[quote]This is the stupidest thread on DL in ages. Did you guys forget that the Republican Senate, with the blessings of and aid from the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, just legalized election fraud? None of this 'can take that state', 'might get enough old people in this state', 'lots of black voters in southern wherever', none of that applies anymore. None of it.

All I can say then is that I hope ivanka wins in 2024 over pompeo.

Thread filled with MAGAts and trolls.

Now emboldened, he will lash out at Iran, causing another war. His financial cases before the SCOTUS will provide more scandals. E. Jean Carroll's rape/defamation case is still underway. His approval rating has never exceeded 43 percent, only Gerald Ford had a lower approval rating while seeking reelection.

WI has always been Republican? Except for in 2000 when WI narrowly voted for Gore, and in 2004 when WI narrowly voted for Kerry, and in 2008 and 2012 when WI voted for Obama. HRC lost WI by .7 percent.

Come visit. You will find the vast majority of counties here vote Republican. Republicans control almost everything in state legislature. Wisconsin is still a very rural state, dotted with college towns. In many areas Republicans run unopposed. Come see for yourself. Get out and talk to voters.

[quote]I don't think he can take Penn.

Well, I'm in Pa right now and surrounded by Trumpers. He will take this state.

[quote]E. Jean Carroll's rape/defamation case is still underway.

That's it. That's the one that's sure to do him in!

The poll says yes

The troll bumps the thread.

Meh. Everyone got so burned last time that they're afraid to say he'll lose.

He's going to lose. We can go on fighting as if he might win, that's fine, but he's going to fucking lose. Bigly.

Republicans are actively registering the Amish to vote, most for the very 1st time in their lives. Wonder if they'll follow through with it.

After the conventions and the rioting I think it has given Trump an advantage in the polls. If Biden doesn't debate Trump it will only add to the negative of the Dem ticket...

He can't win all four of the states he needs to win in November.

By rights it should be a bigger loss than that. We need to hit him like a fucking avalanche.

Biden was in Pittsburgh today. Hope he locks up the state. Lots more techies who have brains living there than in the old days when everyone was voting Republican due to the steel mills. I have lived in the west coast for years, but remember the old days in PA. My parents were Republicans.

"Can" and "will" are two different stories. Can he? Sure. Will he? Likely not.

1. This isn't 2016. He is now the incumbent with a record to run FROM. He can't even answer simple questions on Fox. He's damaged goods and he is aware of it. 2. Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton, whom I love, but let's face it, Joe Biden is much more likable. 3. The second wave of covid will hit by October. Florida's economy has been *battered* due to covid. Unemployment is 11.3 percent. 4. Literally hundreds of thousands of elderly white voters (his base) have passed away since 2016 (not due to covid). 5. There is a proposition on the ballot in FL to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour. Scores of tourism industry workers will be drawn to the polls and that demographic skews Democratic.

As mentioned on the old thread, the BBC coverage on the night was excellent with good breakdowns of the electoral college. They call Ohio for Trump at 4 hours and 5 mins. (There is a nice moment for Hillary when she lifts the Democrats and wins California at 4 hours and 40 mins) Trump wins NC at 4 hours and 48 mins. Florida at 5 hours and 13 mins. The feed cuts before PA is called, but of course, Hillary seemed to be in the lead before Trump surged late in the night and won.

I don't believe he did win. His "late night surge" was a Russian fix.

This time, counties far from the much-ballyhooed Philadelphia region delivered Trump enough votes to outgun Clinton's commanding support in the southeast, and lift him to a stunning victory.

Intense passions for him and antipathy toward her prevailed in Pennsylvania's rural and rust belt communities, observers and analysts said. Together, those sentiments fueled the 73,224-voter edge Trump used early Wednesday to capture a state that effectively sealed his Electoral College victory.

"People did not expect this shift to be as great," said Scranton native and longtime Democratic strategist Charlie Lyons. "I think it had a lot to do with people who came out specifically for Trump - and it may also reflect a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary."

The riots in Wisconsin are going to tip Wisconsin in Dumpster's favor. He might also win Minnesota.