Can Trump win Ohio, PA, FL and NC?

No, OP. No, he doesn't.

He probably has a shot at Ohio. Other 3 seem safe for Clinton/Kaine.

On Meet The Press they said Trump is leading in PA

In addition no GOP candidate who has won Ohio has always won the Presidency

[quote]Trump campaign says if they win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina. It's OVER for Clinton. They win

Yes, that is how elections work. If a candidate wins all the swing states they win. You post is pretty dumb.

Your*

R5 the question is can he win those swing states. How can that be a stupid question. That is what was asked on Meet The Press this AM

He can be viciously face slapped

R3, I'm assuming they're talking about the Quinnipiac poll. Quinnipiac has been leaning toward the Republicans all year. The recent Marist poll has Clinton up by 4 in PA.

He WON'T win Pennsylvania OR Florida. That's wishful thinking on those idiots Chuck Todd and apparently new DL icon(WHY?) Steve "plain as dirt" Kornacki. They are closeted Republicans. Ignore them.

Trumpenstein has a better chance in Ohio but IT'S NOT ENOUGH. NC will be close but because of soon to be Vice-president Kaine and that ridiculous voter ID law being repealed, he will probably lose that one too.

What should REALLY worry the GOP is HRC is tied(!!!) with him Utah of all places. And it's actually close in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Missouri.

The Republican governor of Ohio attacking Trump directly, doesn't help his chances of winning there very much.

In North Carolina the incumbent Republican governor running for reelection seems very unpopular.

I don't see any path for Trump to win in Florida. How is he going to do better than Romney did, when he's running much worse among Hispanics?

Never underestimate the American people ........

Get out and vote ........... offer free rides to other Democrats .......

I don't understand - Trump has very little support among women (all parties), latinos, blacks and gays. How exactly can you win with that little support - no matter what state you're in?

I have mentioned before that Steve Kornacki has never said anything that I can recall that I didn't already know myself.

R13 here - let me add, I just don't believe some of these polls that have been making things so close. They did the same in 2012 and 2008 where McCain and Romney were ahead - and we know how that turned out.

Let's put it another way, OP.

If Trump loses any of those states, he most likely loses. And even if he were to win all of them (he won't), he also must win a whole host of other typically Republican states which are jump balls now.

His chances are slim at best.

Never Pennsylvania.

[quote]On Meet The Press they said Trump is leading in PA

Bitch please, those must have been Republicans. All the media will shove down our throats for next 100 days is fake polls showing he is leading in PA and FL. Because this scares people and it's good for ratings, just like shoving his every comment down our throats. He is not winning those states, no way.

Did you see how low the turnout was at the RNC, all those empty seats? It just proves to me that the media cares more about him than people IRL. They will continue to exploit this situation until voting day. That is why I fully support Debbie Wasserman. She did for Clinton what the media did for Trump.

One has to look at their turnout forecast as well. If Hispanics actually start voting in larger numbers, then he is one large plate of charred toast.

The last two polls for PA had Clinton leading by 9 points.

Steve Kornacki produces Rachel Maddow's show. Say what you will about him, a closeted Republican he is not.

Here's a great NYTimes article from yesterday about the electoral math for Trump.

A few highlights:

Even as Mr. Trump has ticked up in national polls in recent weeks, senior Republicans say his path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election has remained narrow — and may have grown even more precarious. It now looks exceedingly difficult for him to assemble even the barest Electoral College majority without beating Hillary Clinton in a trifecta of the biggest swing states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

President Obama won all three states in 2008 and 2012, and no Republican has won Pennsylvania in nearly three decades.

[...]

For now, though, Mr. Trump is grappling with a magnified version of the dilemma that threatens to stymie Republicans every four years. Democrats have won a consistent set of 18 states in every presidential election since 1992, giving them a base of 242 Electoral College votes even before counting some of the biggest swing states. As a result, the last two Republican nominees, Mitt Romney and John McCain, would have needed to capture nearly all the contested states on the map in order to win.

[...]

Mr. Trump, Republicans believe, may have even fewer ways to count to 270 than Mr. Romney and Mr. McCain had, because of his debilitating unpopularity with women and nonwhite voters.

He has to win ALL of those states to win, and he has no chance at PA. Clinton will also take NC. Ohio has gone blue for the past decade. Florida is up in the air.

He's going to lose.

[quote]Florida is up in the air.

Hispanics will not vote for him. His collapse is complete.

I can't imagine Clinton winning North Carolina and losing Florida.

North Carolina May be in play since the voter I'd law was overturned.

PA is not a swing state. The media insists that it is, but as was pointed out, it's voted Democratic for the past 30 years.

Florida is NOT up in the air. There aren't enough rednecks and old Cubans to put him over the top. She also got more votes than he did in the primaries. So there's THAT Mary!

[quote]Never Pennsylvania.

she leads by a far amount so far in PA

So you are saying Trump will be t he first GOP nominee to win Ohio but lose the presidency

it's not inconceivable

Howard Dean just called Turnip a "pig" on MSNBC. That's true, but rather indelicate.

I'm worried about PA. Even North Philly suburbs who went for Obama seem to be leaning Trump and the rural areas for sure are. I'm thinking we need to volunteer to help there if we live nearby. Hillary won't need my vote in NJ but if I can persuade or get more Dems to the polls in PA to vote for Hillary that's where I need to focus my energy.

Then do it, R33. Thank you.

I'd like to see the Dems do something to beat the redistricting that occurs after the next census. The Repubs were good at this last time.

yes, well they have to win the State Houses to do that 35. The Rebups and the Koch brothers were very strategic about that objective.

In Canada we have an INDEPENDENT non-partisan organization conceive the boundaries of election ridings

Why doesn't the US do the same thing, make independent and fair

I think winning local (Governor, Senator, Reps and down) are as important as anything else, R35. It's where future Presidents come from. And we're affected by local laws so strongly. Just ask the woman who can't get an abortion, or the various groups that can't vote, etc. Those are local laws infringing on their rights!

No way he wins all 4 states.

R37, courts sometimes order this, after the Yahoos go too extreme. I wish we always did, but that would be corrupted quickly enough.

R39! I think that's your code you published! Ack! I Ff'd you, just so Mureal would be notified to delete your post, for your protection! Call Mediaopolous and ask to get it removed!

Donald Trump can win Pennsylvania. Here's why

The down ticket races will assure he loses NC. McCrory is hugely unpopular and that race alone will bring out the Moral Monday crowds that are extremely well-organized and have been registering voters and collecting email addresses for the past two years. I think the US Senate race will go to the Dems too since a woman, Deborah Ross, is running this cycle and NC hasn't historically had a problem electing women to that position.

Thanks for weighing in Concern Troll#89 AKA r42 BUT Trumpenstein will NOT win Pennsylvania. NO REPUBLICAN has won in 28 years. THAT won't change November 8th. Now back to our regularly scheduled program...

Aren't there states that Romney won last time but that Trump is in danger of losing? So it's not just getting those 4 states, he's also got to keep the ones that voted for Romney.

PA is the swing state I'm least concerned about. I don't have any doubt Clinton will win it.

People who say Trump can't win PA are the same people who said he would never be the GOP nominee. Look how that turned out.

Yes, they're all exactly the same people, exactly the same.

[quote]Hispanics will not vote for him. His collapse is complete.

He's now blown off two scheduled meetings with Hispanic community leaders in Miami. Those guys aren't happy being treated like crap, especially since Trump is all too happy to go to Florida for his idiotic press conferences.

R49 Chuck Todd from Meet The Press showed on the electoral map Trump could win without Florida

I'm from PA and it seems very republican nowadays. I think it is in play. My social media from people I know there seems strangely pro-Trump.

Yes R51 and Trump being a bit smug tweeting

Word is that Crooked Hillary has very small and unenthusiastic crowds in Pennsylvania. Perhaps it is because her husband signed NAFTA?

Trump is being a but smug tweeting

Word is that Crooked Hillary has very small and unenthusiastic crowds in Pennsylvania. Perhaps it is because her husband signed NAFTA?

First of all NC and OH will go for Trump and PA for Hillary. NC is a red state, despite Obama's luck, that was due to the economy. PA is a blue state for presidents, and will stay that way.

OH is a toss up as is FL. In fact, this whole election will come to OH, FL and VA.

[quote] In fact, this whole election will come to OH, FL and VA.

Actually it comes down to Florida just like the 2000 election.

r50 Obama didm't need FL to win last go-round, but Hillary cannot take any chances. I think she'll take it, but closely.

For all you fellows who think that Trump has such a terrific chance, how do you explain the numbers in Georgia of all places being almost exactly dead even?

[quote]Why doesn't the US do the same thing, make independent and fair

You've answered your own question, R37. When it's independent and fair, Democrats win (see: gerrymandering).

Speaking of polls. I was wondering what happened to that hilariously wrong Unskewed Polls guy all the Freepers were talking up last election. It looks like it's now a website for German ladies cosmetics.

Of course he can, all those states save Pa have republican governors. Plus dont expect the Obama coalition to show up in the same numbers for Hillary, not as much enthusiasm.

You seem to be unaware that in North Carolina the Republican governor and legislature are pretty much hated.

I live in NC and on the ground its not that clearcut. Hb2, which has made Mccrory a national piriah, has majority support in NC. The election will be close but id put my money on Mccrory in a squeaker, while R-Senator Burr is expected to win reelection easily. Obama narrowly one nc once due to near record turnout and narrowly lost it 4 years later. The state is shifting but not as fast as i think some Dems hope (see Hb2). Its a bit of a reach for Hillary this time around. She can win it but only if the race turns into a blowout such that she wont need it.

OP that's one combination that could do it for him. But he also have to retain all the Republican states as well.

A recent poll had them basically tied in Missouri (Hillary +1). That means he has to play defense there.

FL is not happening for Trump. He would need support of the FL Republican establishment to win FL and they despise him so much they may vote for Hillary.

only NC as that fucked up state will vote for him...Fl, PA Clinton , and OH up in there but might go Trump even without Kasich's support!

I think he's lost Jeb's gang in Florida, and I don't think that the Cubans are as hot for him as he needs. The Kasich votes from the WASP crowd are more or less lost for him, even if they don't actually vote for Hillary. And, I don't see how he's going to do better among non-cuban Hispanics than Romney did.

FL will go to Hillary, PA Hillary, Ohio thinking it actually could go to Hillary since Kasich does not support Trump but this state is really up in there, NC Trump

Yet another high profile Republican denounces Trump...

Trump could win PA, OH, FL AND NC, but if Hillary wins what Obama did and picks off Arizona, she wins. Trump has a very narrow path.

TRUMP is not winning all 3 > PA, OH, FL

Bump

If the election were held today 8/1/16, Clinton would squash Turnip like a bug. 339 EVs to 198.

Holy Ned, that's incredible!

Ha, ha, after all the Trump hate on the military, the FiveThirtyEight election map just flipped 30 minutes ago with Florida for Clinton.

If Election were held to day: Clinton 83% to Trump 16%.

is that electoral votes r74?

No, r75, its the likelihood that each candidate would win.

Clinton ahead in UTAH!

I'd LOVE to see Hillary campaign in Utah, and really take the voters there very seriously. She could openly acknowledge that it is a very red state and respect their differences, and then open a HUGE can of whup ass on Trump, and play the patriot card, the woman card, and the "Can't we all be decent" card to close the deal. BAM! Four electoral votes!

I'd love to see her squash him like the bug he is. However, I'm not going to take any chances and I'm going to volunteer for a GOTV canvass in Ohio. I'm morally obligated to keep Benedict Donald from getting this state.

PA is beyond a long shot for Trump. Even if he could come close, Philadelphia has a long standing, highly effective Democratic turnout machine.

My theory on 2016--All hands will be on deck to keep Trump out of the White House. Because for the most part, people involved in politics, even the most cynical politicians, still want the country to do well. The Philly power brokers will drag everyone out to vote. (Each precinct has a "captain" -- they chase people down at home with phone calls or visits if their names haven't been checked off as having voted already by late afternoon).

Has a Democrat other than FDR and LBJ, who both had such big margins of victory that calling them "landslides" would be vastly underselling it, won Utah?

Trump has troubles to get traditional red states to his side, he won't get all if any swing states. Any GOP candidate losing in Utah is in very serious and deep trouble.

A Clinton win in Utah would be jaw-dropping, even being close is amazing.

But what if Texas goes Blue. That would be epic

don't count your chicken before they hatch, dear

Yeah, you don't want to be like all those Trumpkins who were crowing about Turnip being ahead in Nate Silver's projections just a few days ago.

Trump says he is leading in Virginia, Tim Kaine home state!

Trump can and does says whatever bullshit his feeble mind wants to. He is of course not leading in Virginia according to the polling data we have.

Hillary just had her best fundraising month, pulling in $90 million. That will allow her to compete in states like Georgia and Utah, keeping Trump on defense.

I am in the middle of Pa for a little while and I have seen NO TRUMP signs on lawns in a very Republican area. Made me giddy.

He will not win Ohio. He couldn't even win the primary here.

Trump MUST win in Ohio, PA, and FL assuming Hillary takes Virginia. . Unlikely

R89 Lots of money. Indication of how much it costs to run for a president.

[quote] He is of course not leading in Virginia according to the polling data we have.

Well this is what Trump says

he can sit on a huge dildo

I think that 53% is for Oklahoma? Not a big surprise. The idiots there would burn their state to the ground before they'd vote for a Dem. I'm just not buying a Turnip lead in VA based on one poll when Clinton's been polling so well there.

No, OP. No. I can't speak with authority about the other states but I know my home state of Pennsylvania will vote Democratic, like it always does in the end.

Pennsylvania has gone blue in every presidential election for the past 30+ years. It's often close, and if a Republican were able to sway just enough of the Pittsburgh and Philly suburban voters to join the rural conservatives, it could theoretically swing red, but that never happens these days. Didn't happen with Bush Sr. or Dole facing Bill Clinton, and it didn't happen either time for George W. Bush, or McCain or Romney. It certainly won't be happening with Trump.

Pennsylvania could swing in a race with a weak Democrat and a Republican with appeal to moderates and independents, but that does not describe this election. Trump is splitting his party apart and his campaign is imploding at the exact moment that Hillary's is taking off.

It defies logic that Trump could be ahead in Virginia, while being in big trouble in Georgia at the same time.

R98 how do you explain what he tweeted at R94

R97 PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll, conducted entirely after the Democratic convention, finds Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead in the state. She's at 45% to 42% for Donald Trump, 4% for Gary Johnson, and 2% for Jill Stein. In a head to head match up just with Trump she leads by 4 points at 49-45.

So for those Green supporters in PA, if you want to STOP TRUMP you cannot vote for Jill Stein.

One contradictory poll from a C+ rated pollster does not a lead make.

R101 all the PA papers are picking up this story. Hopefully it will scare Green supporters to switch their vote and back Clinton.

Because AGAIN

The ONLY WAY to STOP TRUMP is not to vote for Jill Stein.

Isn't Stein an anti-vaxxer?

R99, no one's even heard of the poll Trump referenced.

Real Clear Politic's Poll Average for VA has Hillary up by 5.3. For PA the RCP Poll Average is +5.0 for Hillary.

Trump is pretty much a crazy man running for President . A lot of very ignorant people are willing to vote for crazy.

Hillary's big problem in Pennsylvania is that a lot of the conservative Democrats (racists), who hated Obama, are preferring Trump.

So when Trump said if Ivanka is sexually harrassed on her job, she should change jobs...no one sees a problem with that? Ivanka doesn't see a problem with that?

R107, cuz boys will be boys.

Gals got to get over it and move the fuck on, in Trump world.

Remember to tell your friends and family to vote for Democrats up and down the ticket. The party isn't doing a good job of sending out this message.

[quote]Hillary's big problem in Pennsylvania is that a lot of the conservative Democrats (racists), who hated Obama, are preferring Trump.

What big problem in Pennsylvania?! Hillary has been polling quite well there.

Glad to hear most Pennsylvanians are not like some of my relatives in the Valley Forge area.

I understand that today he officially lost Joe Scarborough, who has declared Hillary the presumptive winner.

Kaine is from Virginia and is popular so I think the Democrats will win that state. I think Hillary will also win Florida and Pennsylvania too. Ohio and NC are still iffy but if Trump keeps acting the way he has been lately, she'll win those states as well.

I want Hillary to win in a landslide because you know Trump is going to say that the election was "RIGGED". I also want the Repugs in the Senate and House to get their asses whipped big time. The Congress needs to be cleaned out.

yes, I agree; between Bernie and Trump everyone thinks everything is rigged. It's big money empowered by Citizens United that's doing the "rigging" of policy outcomes, but the constant drumbeat by these two about primaries and elections is troubling because it encourages people to distrust the process completely and just be completely cynical. They need to vote more not less.

Hillary has no "big problem" in Pennsylvania. She has a big lead -- 10 points. Stop conflating the entire state with Pennsyltucky. Those people don't make up the majority. The cities and suburbs of Pennsylvania are rich with liberal, moderate and minority voters who will more than cancel out the votes from mouth-breathers in the country.

Real Clear Politics has taken Pennsylvania out of the Toss Up column. It's Leans Clinton now. Their Poll Average has her at +8.

New poll out of Florida. Clinton up 6 in a two way race. She's up 4 in a four way race.

From Reuters/538:

Iowa - Trump: 44%/Clinton: 41%

Maine - Trump: 42%/Clinton: 42%

Michigan - Trump: 42%/Clinton: 42%

New Hampshire - Trump: 45%/Clinton: 44%

Ohio - Trump: 46%/Clinton: 43%

Utah - Trump: 35%/Clinton: 34%

Wisconsin: Trump 39/Clinton: 39%

Yeah, he does now.

Right now he is leading in all four states,

That's incorrect, R120.

Hillary is leading in Pennsylvania.

The Quinnipiac poll today does show Trump ahead in Ohio, but most polls favor Hillary there.

It's true that Florida and North Carolina are close, but Hillary has a small lead in most of the FL & NC polls.

There's no doubt though that some of these will be closely contested states. But we need more state polls before drawing any conclusions.

So, with the trolls here bothering us nonstop, consistent polling over several months showing a Clinton advantage in nearly all battleground states means nothing, but a few polls during a lull period mean CLINTON IS GOING TO LOSE!!!!!!

Assholes. We observed this with both of Obama's wins, too. Baseless, cynical bullshit.

Clinton may not win North Carolina. I think she will. She is safely ahead in Pennsylvania. She likely will win Florida, although she doesn't need it. Nor does she need Ohio, which she also probably will win. With Colorado and Virginia safe, with the rest of the Democrat-Obama base except Nevada and Iowa (both of which likely to tip to the Democrats), and with continuing gains in Georgia, Arizona and even Texas (for Christ's sake - I don't think she'll win Texas but recent trends nudge it towards battleground territory), Clinton has many ways to victory. And Trump has perhaps two at most, neither of which being likely.

FUCK OFF with the phony concern and trolling. The trends are set, even with Clinton's unpopularity, which is the result of the usual hate campaign among GOP lowlifes. And with the economy good enough and with the debates looming, Trump's plain incapacity to be president will ensure a fine Election Day this year.

PLUS the OP (idiot) cites what the Trump campaign is saying. OF COURSE these assholes are going to say they're going win.

Christ.

Yes, Clinton has more pathways to victory in the Electoral College.

That has increasingly become the case for Democrats since 1992.

Both Bill Clinton & Barack Obama won over 300 Electoral Votes twice. The Republicans have not won over 300 EV since Bush Senior in 1988. Bush Junior was not able to reach 300 EV in either of his elections.

However, as Nate Silver wrote in a recent piece, it's important for the Democrats not to become complacent. Although the pathway to victory for Trump is narrow, it's still a possibility.

Trump now has a 5 pt lead in Ohio. Once he starts leading in PA its over for Clinton. She is done.

lol no

Trump is trailing in Pennsylvania so far, but it's possible that we could see a close race there.

George W. Bush came within 4 points of Al Gore in 2000 and within 2.5 points of John Kerry in 2004.

Trump is not leading in Ohio. Where do you people come up with this nonsense?

R128:

R128, Trump is leading in Ohio today according to both Bloomberg & CNN.

So it appears we are seeing Trump pick up some momentum.

Fuck all these political threads.

Even Nate Silver Now Gives Ohio and North Carolina To Donald Trump

It is over for Clinton

We have two more months of polling, R132.

But yes, the race has definitely tightened.

But then everyone here on DL said it was going to be a blowout, and that Trump had ZERO chance in these four states,

Now he is leading in 3 of them and could take the fourth

R134 - I think he will take PA. But we won't know until Nov.

I have always expected a close race.

I always take predictions by either side of a 'blowout' with a grain of salt.

Because of the way the country is divided, it is hard for either party to win in a landslide.

R135 an if he wins PA it is over for Clinton

He can win Pennsylvania and Ohio because Hillary promises to do away with coal mining jobs.

This is turning into a disaster.

Now do people still think Trump doesn't have a chance?

[quote]I have always expected a close race.

How is it close if he is getting no black vote, no Hispanic vote, no women vote and half the Republicans have denounced him?

R141 it is called the silent majority. We saw it with Nixon

What kind of fools would want a con artist to win? Trump is ignorant, a liar, a big mouthed racist...why would you want THAT person to win?

R143 ask your fellow Americans. Remember it was DLers who PRAYED that Trump would be the nominee, cause Clinton could steamroll over him.

Well be careful for what you wish for

[quote]it is called the silent majority. We saw it with Nixon

The demographics of the country are nothing like they were with NIxon.

Nixon era was very conservative, I think it is because the hippies did not vote.

The man is such an obvious jackass, why would anyone vote for him? It really is strange that people would want an ignorant shitheel to be President...they don't know who their enemy is.

Another silent majority

They are a silent opposition R148. Doesn't equal a vote for Hillary. Looks like the OTHER candidates on the ballot will be getting their votes.

Colin Powell's latest email:

"Peter, I am back from the Bohemian Grove. Surprise, surprise, I sat next to Stephen Harper a couple of times and had a nice discussion. Grove attendees know that Trump is a disaster. Most will vote against, but quite a few will not vote for Hillary and will vote for a third party candidate. Strange doings down here"

These crimes of hacked emails has got to stop. Unless it's Trump's criminal doings.

I volunteered for Hillary's campaign in Nevada. It's a must win state for her.

One state to watch over the next week will be Virginia.

Up until now Virginia has been a very secure state for Hillary.

But if Hillary's numbers start dropping in Virginia and Trump starts pulling ahead, then we will know her campaign is in serious trouble.

If the white trash here in Florida can figure out how to register to vote and use the voting machines, Trump will take this state in a landslide. Remember, he won Florida in the primaries.

Can every gay man in Ohio, PA, FL and NC manage to deep-throat a cock like this guy??

Therein lies your answer.

With plenty of help from Governor Scott & Pam Bondi R152!

What about Trump's sons? Are any of them expert cocksuckers??

she's Triggered!

Maybe they're jizz-whores

Trump's smelly vagina is triggered by not being fed enough cum

Please dear Jesus no more dirty birdy homosexual pron! The mere site of it leaves me gasping for breath. I may have Hillmonia.

Is that André Boleyn from Bel Ami at R158?

The Bernie Bros got nothing on the psycho fraus of the Hillary Lounge.

Surprise, lol!

Money-shot

[quote] What kind of fools would want a con artist to win?

I've wondered the same thing since the Clintons entered the national stage in 1992.

Jiggle, jiggle. Maybe this will make R161's mom's dry pussy wet

Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado—those four.

They would come before Pennsylvania, one of those “Blue Firewall” states Republican presidential candidates haven’t carried since either 1984 or 1988.

It's going to be a tight race!

The fact that you are so stupid that you can not recognize the liar and jerkoff, Trump for what he is, means you have a problem. I assume a supporter of Trump is brain damaged or a mentally challenged individual.

Yes heretofore democrats easily carried Pennsylvania. But perhaps that was before it sunk in just how much they looked down upon and disregarded the previously blue-dog democrat coal miner voters.

Obama and Hillary's war on coal impacts Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

And Hillary smirking at the out of work coal miner several months ago in Kentucky left an indelible impression. Not to mention Bill sneering at "coal people" in Pennsylvania just two weeks ago.

R166, I agree that's the most likely scenario.

Trump is becoming very competitive in Ohio & Florida, and it's likely that Virginia and Colorado would fall before Pennsylvania does.

However, it's theoretically possible that Hillary could lose Pennsylvania, but win Virginia.

538 actually gives Virginia a stronger likelihood of voting Dem (78.5%) than Pennsylvania (71.8%).

It will be interesting to watch how these states develop over the final 2 months.

It's a closer race to see who cums first.

I said this in a thread a couple weeks ago that some posters here were too confident that Hillary was going to win easily. I also can't believe that some of you thought the email scandal would go away-it hasn't. More and more "unsure" voters distrust her. It's pathetic but Trump has a real shot. I wouldn't be surprised if more damaging info leaks about Hillary in the coming weeks. I keep hoping for a new major Trump scandal because it seems like the public has forgiven ALL of the shit he's said and done over the last year.

Florida is very important. I hope that state can be salvaged.

I hope this guy's anus can be salvaged.

Florida is leaning slightly towards Hillary right now according to 538, but if there are more good polls for Trump in Florida tomorrow, it will fall into his column.

Just wondering, who gets polled? I've never been contacted for a poll ever and my parents never were either when I was growing up.

Brutal

R175 you have a better chance if you have a landline

Do we have a Coal Troll now? I think we do!

Some of the problem with the polls is the millennial voters. In the Quinnipiac poll that came out today in head to head match up Clinton is leading Trump by 5 points. But when you add in Johnson and Stein she only leads by 2. Part of that is that she loses those millennials to third party.

Then with the Ohio polls, they're looking at likely voters now and not registered voters. When they do that a lot of minorities and democrats drop off the poll. Remember they poll about 1000 people in that poll but it drops to about 700 people when they give the results. The woman who did the Ohio poll said they're predicting more Republicans coming out in Ohio and that the electorate will look like 2004 when Bush won. That's why Clinton is showing losing in the poll.

The CNN Ohio poll also for some reason didn't include people under 50 unless we're missing some info on it. Maybe Poll Troll con confirm if we're jus seeing things there.

These guys have a good shot at winning

the two are locked in a near-even contest in Florida, according to new CNN/ORC polls in the two critical battleground states. Among likely voters in Ohio, Trump stands at 46% to Clinton's 41%, with 8% behind Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Florida, likely voters split 47% for Trump to 44% for Clinton, within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error, and with 6% behind Johnson and 1% backing Stein.

Here's what the pollster said about that Ohio poll. I prefer to look at a bunch of polls rather than try to unskew the poll but I do wonder how much of this is just guess work.

Our party breakdown differs from other polls, but resembles what happened in Ohio in 2004,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, whose Iowa-based firm Selzer & Co. oversaw the survey. “It is very difficult to say today who will and who will not show up to vote on Election Day. Our poll suggests more Republicans than Democrats would do that in an Ohio election held today, as they did in 2004 when George W. Bush carried the state by a narrow margin. In 2012, more Democrats showed up.” A higher proportion of men and older voters—groups that tilt Republican—passed the survey's likely-voter screen than typical in past election cycles, Selzer said, boosting Trump's numbers. Party breakdown for the poll was 33 percent Republican, 29 percent Democrats, and 34 percent independents. Exit polling shows that Ohio's electorate in the 2012 presidential election was 38 percent Democratic, 31 percent Republican, and 31 percent independent, while in 2004 it was 40 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic, and 25 percent independent. In the two-way race, Trump is backed by 85 percent of Republicans and those who lean that way, compared to 92 percent of Democrats and those who lean that way for Clinton. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and included interviews with 802 likely Ohio voters. For subgroups, such as just Trump or just Clinton voters, the margin of error is higher. In the four-way race, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson gets 10 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein receives 3 percent. Each is struggling to reach the 15-percent average needed in national polls recognized by the presidential debate commission be included in the first debate on Sept. 26.

If Trump wins California and New York, it's over for Hillary!

[quote] If Trump wins California

Trump's not going to win California. Poll from yesterday has her up 25.

Clinton is only up 5 points in the latest Pa poles - but those are a week old prior to her collapse on Sunday. New ones should be out tomorrow. I would not be surprised if she looses a few points in PA tomorrow.

Trump is up in Ohio and Flordia

Trump will win PA. Mark my words. His ads are running around the clock and are resonating unfortunately.

I believe it r187

Better yet, if Trump wins the Obama home states Hawaii and Illinois (HRC birthplace), it's OVER for Hillary!

Goodbye Columbus? @jeffzeleny notes Clinton hasn't been in Ohio since Labor Day and has no plans to be there soon. Trailing in polls there.

I predict Trump will win Mississippi, Montana and Wyoming.

This just in from Florida....

100-Year-Old Holocaust Survivor on becoming U.S. Citizen for one reason

BREAKING NEWS: Politco just reported on some of the stuff the Clinton campaign is mailing out. It's basically ALL about Obama.

These are legitimate quotes from their ads: "We can either build on President Obama's legacy or tear it apart. You choose" "This election it's up to us to have his back"

I'm sorry, but are you FUCKING KIDDING ME. Look, I like Obama personally, I think he is a good guy with a wonderful family who made some wonderful progress particularly with social issues. But there are plenty of valid policy criticism's about him that even liberals should be able to admit, especially with foreign and economic policy. This whole idea that this election is about him, preserving his legacy, having his back, is pathetic. An election is not about a President or preserving his past, it's about American's and building up their future. People are hungry for change (Trump and Bernie were proof of that). Hillary needs to be able to acknowledge Obama's accomplishments while still being able to criticize where he went wrong. She needs to be able to say "Look, many people are suffering. I need to have their back. What's going on now is still not working for many people, so here is what I would do differently"

It just undermines the whole historic nature of her victory, when she is allowing herself to be completely lost in the shadow of a third term. This is why the polls are tightening. When people are unhappy, stop trying to stuff down their throat with national statistics how great things are.

I laughed when I read that title.

Trump has now pulled off the impossible.

He now leads in Ohio, PA, FL & NC

Now he has a clear path to victory!

Again DLers were WRONG!

If Trump wins all 50 state, it's OVER for Hillary! Mark my words!

R80 writes

[quote] PA is beyond a long shot for Trump.

Not anymore

R195, no. They are tied in FL and Hillary is still leading in PA. Trump's lead in NC is only about 1-2 points in the aggregate.

R193, Hillary has NO choice but to go this route.

She is bleeding minorities and young people. These were Obama's core groups.

Many of my liberal friends and family members are refusing to vote for her, and these are people that supported Barack Obama twice.

Unfortunately, I am still on the fence about her. I may not vote and I live in Ohio.

[quote] She is bleeding minorities and young people...

yeah, she's dropped from 98% to 96% support. She's just bleeding!

Nope

R199, if I may ask, why are you on the fence? Just genuinely curious. Do you believe her platform is similar to Donald Trump's?

Trump will make America great! Hillary just wants a mediocre crappy little shitty place. Hillary wants a hobo country! Yeah, that makes a lot of sense!

[quote]She is bleeding minorities and young people.

Thanks for sharing, idiot Turnip Troll(TM).

Here on planet Earth Muppet Hitler's support among black voters is 3%, 19% with Latinos. a/k/a, lower minority support than any other Republican President since Eisenhower.

But hey, if that blatant lies makes you feel better about your life, go for it. God knows Turnip's supporters tend to have violent allergic reactions to reality.

not after tonight's debate!!!

After tonight's debacle, she's will be ahead again. That tie bullshit was just that. All the lying. ALL the sniffles. Is he a cokehead?

He doesn't know or care how the world works. He's done.

To the all theconcern trolls who keep posting on DL: FUCK OFF CUNTS! He WON'T win! Give up already.

......................

And he won all four

This must be rigged polls cannot be this wrong.

Told ya.

Anyone living in Western PA knew that the polls were wrong and a few of us even tried to say so on DL but were bullied, shot down and literally told to STFU.

With the help of Comey and the Russians yes

Such a timely response from the lady in pennsyltucky! Should I weight in on the election five months after this thread was even active? Sure, why not.

Hillary she turns blue states red

🤣🤣🤣🤣

Not sure why this was bumped, but it is funny to see all the posters in denial up top.