Our 2019 Oscar predictions in every category - Kevin Polowy - Senior Correspondent, Yahoo Entertainment
When it comes to the 2019 Academy Awards, the drama wasn’t just on the big screen. From the ill-advised introduction of the Best Popular Film category to the Kevin Hart debacle to the since-reneged decisions to cut four categories from the live broadcast, feature only two of the Best Original Song performances and not include last year’s acting winners as presenters (so exhausted, are we missing anything?), the gaffes have been plentiful.
It remains to be seen how show producers will pull off the Oscars’ first hostless iteration since 1989. But thankfully there’s a bit of suspense left when it comes to, you know, the actual awards being doled out. Best Picture seems wide open — Roma? Green Book?? Black Panther??? — even if most of the acting categories feature heavy favorites following the long slog that is awards season. (In an uncharacteristically great decision the academy made over the past year, they’ve bumped the 2020 ceremony up a few weeks, which should help heighten the suspense in all categories next year.)
Without further ado, here are my picks in every category, including those pesky shorts. (And check out our spiffy printable ballot, so you can play along at home.)
Best Picture: This is one of the closest Best Picture races in years. Normally a clear favorite has emerged at this point, but a different film has won each of the major guild awards, with the Producers Guild going with Green Book, the Directors Guild going with Roma, the Screen Actors Guild going with Black Panther and the Writers Guild going with Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Eighth Grade (neither of which is nominated here). The Golden Globes’ top drama prize, meanwhile, went to Bohemian Rhapsody, while comedy/musical went to Green Book, and BAFTA’s top prize went to Roma, while The Favourite took home Best British Film.
Most pundits agree the race will come down to Alfonso Cuarón’s deeply felt autobiographical drama Roma (which be the first Oscar win for Netflix) and Peter Farrelly’s middle-brow comedic drama Green Book (which would be impressive given its myriad controversies). Because of the Oscars “preferential balloting” system, which allows voters to rank films and because both films have their detractors — Roma perceived as too slow and cold, and Green Book too antiquated — Marvel’s well-regarded superhero sensation Black Panther could pull off the surprise complete its hero journey. Nonetheless, considering consecutive wins by artier, director-driven films like Moonlight and The Shape of Water, it feels like Roma‘s race to lose. Prediction: Roma Don’t be surprised by: Green Book Dark horse: Black Panther
Best Director: Farrelly’s absence in this category could hurt Green Book in the Best Picture race (a rare feat last achieved by Argo in 2013 despite Ben Affleck’s being denied a directed nod). This academy likes to award ambitious visual feats, which is why someone like, well, Alfonso Cuarón was able to defeat Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) in 2014 for Gravity. With that in mind, Cuarón and Roma have the edge, but don’t discount Spike Lee given the sentimentality about his long-overdue first nomination in this category. Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón Don’t be surprised by: Spike Lee
Best Actress: While Lady Gaga played the role of early favorite for her big crossover, and Olivia Colman briefly assumed the role of favo(u)rite for her rousing portrayal of Queen Anne, the momentum now belongs to Glenn Close, who has so far gone 0 for 6 at the Oscars but who has won all the major lead-up awards. Close is indeed excellent — she’s Glenn Close; it’s what she does — but this is as much of a legacy Oscar as you’ll find this year. Prediction: Glenn Close Dark horse: Olivia Colman
