Oscar Season: 2018 Movies Part 4

I’m seeing “The Favourite” tonight in NYC. So excited!

Oops, didn’t mean to put Ryan Gosling at the bottom. It was alphabetical but I forgot him entirely.

Rami will definitely get an Oscar nod now.

Why? His reviews for BH weren’t that good, they were just better than the movie itself.

G is campaigning for this I hear.

Haven’t seen any so I’m well-qualified to award the Oscar to . . .

Christian Bale.

R4 he's considered a minority and BR is a worldwide smash. He's also well-liked in the industry.

Br is the highest grossing movie in the entire list. Rami will get a nod.

Remember how no one considered Sandra Bullock part of the Oscar race back in 2009, until THE BLIND SIDE opened and became a huge hit.

Bohemian Rhapsody has made more $$ than A Star is Born?

Br has grossed 385 million in three weeks vs star is born 340 million in almost two months

If Bale wins it will be the second year in a row where the winner, who was portraying a political figure of yesteryear, threw on a bunch of prosthetics, gained some weight and called it a performance. Enough already. I hope someone else wins. Christian Bale is a shapeshifter only.

I wouldn't think too much of comparing BR to ASIB in terms of box office numbers. No one thought an R-Rated remake like ASIB would do as well as it did. In contrast, BR is basically a Queen - one of the biggest bands of all time - concert. Of course it was going to to do better.

And ASIB should beat BR in terms of US box office. FWIW.

R14 I think BR could pull ahead. Currently, it's grossed $127 million stateside on its third weekend; ASIB has grossed $185 on its seventh weekend.

Will the Elton John biopic pull these crazy bohemian rhapsody numbers?

Bohemian Rhapsody lost nearly 50% of its audience from last weekend. It won't be able to overtake ASIB at the US box office.

[quote]BR is basically a Queen - one of the biggest bands of all time - concert. Of course it was going to to do better.

That was not a guarantee, especially with Singer at the helm.

And audiences live the movie, 8.4 on IMDb with 100,00 votes, 93 percent liked it on rotten tomatoes. Critics thought it was Ehud but audiences didn't give a crap.

[quote]If Bale wins it will be the second year in a row where the winner, who was portraying a political figure of yesteryear, threw on a bunch of prosthetics, gained some weight and called it a performance. Enough already. I hope someone else wins. Christian Bale is a shapeshifter only.

I like Bale, but I agree. Oldman’s win was contentious, to say the least. And Bale doesn’t have the overdue factor that Oldman had propelling him to the win. Still, a lot of voters seem to fall for the mimicry=great acting bullshit.

R20 especially if they're British. They need to kick out the Anglophiles from the Academy.

I don't think it will beat a star is born domestically but it's hitting 500 million worldwide which is unheard of for a biopic, that's superhero money.

I agree R20. I love Bale, but I think it's Cooper's year. If Bale didn't already have on Oscar I might think otherwise.

I also agree with R17. BR is $50 million behind ASIB in the US. It grossed 15 million this weekend. ASIB grossed just under 5 million. No way is BR going to surpass ASIB.

Totally R22. WW it's a HUGE hit. I love Freddie so I'm thrilled.

R23 how twee

I don’t think Rocket Man (the Elton John film) will do as well as BR. Taron Egerton seems miscast as EJ.

[quote]I don’t think Rocket Man (the Elton John film) will do as well as BR. Taron Egerton seems miscast as EJ.

BR at least has straight dude appeal. Elton, not so much.

R20, Oldman's win is only contentious for bitter Timmy's fans. Bale will not win it because he already has Oscar and he plays real life politician under heavy makeup and that's too similar to last year BA win.

Ethan Hawke is magnificent. But too understated to win.

Vice screened last night and the reaction is that Bale is magnificent. Hell, just watch the trailer. He’s uncanny. If the whole performance is at that level, I don’t doubt he could win.

As for Oldman, he won for his whole career. His work in Darkest Hour was nothing but bluster.

[quote]Hell, just watch the trailer.

No. I don't do Dick (Cheney).

“A Star is Born”

Roma is looking to be a harder and harder sell as time goes by and the animosity towards Netflix grows.

R32 Cuaron already has his Oscar, so no biggie.

"As for Oldman, he won for his whole career. His work in Darkest Hour was nothing but bluster."

Sweetheart, the most important thing is that he won. He is award winner now. But nature of his role may derail now Bale's winning cause he is doing similar thing. I bet Cooper will fight for that Oscar.

Do you think Cooper directing himself will be a benefit?

I can't remember, but did all the Oscar bait films last year also bomb this badly as this year's bunch? Besides The Hate U Give( which at least looks like it's gonna recover its budget cost, can't say that about the other Oscar films) and A Star is Born, every other Oscar film has been essentially DOA.

I saw Boy Erased last night. Wonderful film with terrific performances by Lucas Hedges, Nicole Kidman, ad Russell Crowe. Kidman in particular deserves a nomination for Supporting - she was so fucking good in this.

R36 Get Out, Lady Bird, Shape of Water, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, Three Billboards and The Post should have all been profitable. CMBYN might've been, too. Phantom Thread probably wasn't.

Rami deserves a nod just for the live aid scene alone, he was magical.

CMBYN was profitable. It was made for $3.5 million and grossed $18 million stateside and $23 million overseas.

Far cry from the b.o of brokeback mountain.

R38, you are right, only Phantom Thread didn't make profit last year. All other 8 movies nominated for Best Picture made good profit and were financially successful.

Brokeback Mountain was a cultural moment.

Robert Redford belongs in the Best Actress category.

R38. Damn, you're right. I honestly couldn't really remember any Oscar film from last year and forgot that all of those films were successful, and some hugely so ( Dunkirk, Get Out, CMBYN.) I wonder what the hell happened this year? I guess you just never know what is gonna catch the public interest.

R41 Apples and oranges. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN was an American film directed by Ang Lee, who already had made a name for himself in the industry (e.g., THE WEDDING BANQUET, SENSE & SENSIBILITY, THE ICE STORM). He had been Oscar-nominated for directing and producing CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON and had been hired to direct the big budget HULK, which earned him some notoriety. The film also starred Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger who had world renown. The film also received a lot of positive publicity and was released during a time when it wasn't easy to find leaked movies online.

CMBYN didn't have any of that and many peopled watched screeners online, because they couldn't wait for it to officially open.

What movies are front runners for BP nominations this year?

R47 according to GoldDerby:

Don’t count out Emily Blunt.

....

I really want Cooper to win this. His acting was as good as it was in American Sniper but he also learned to play guitar like an actual rocker and sang. While co-writing and directing the entire movie.

I don’t want Bale to win, esp for playing Dick Cheney, one of the worst human beings our country has ever known. I hope the movie does terribly at the box office - you couldn’t pay me to look at someone pretending to be that psycho for 2 hours.

Too bad we don't have any black or Hispanic actors.

Dick Cheney is one of the worst human beings ever made but doesn't the movie show him for what he is?

R52 there shouldn't be a quota.

What's the difference between Vice and W. (besides the subject, of course)?

I have never seen anything bad by Nicole Kidman. She really is a great actor and she is beautiful too.

I don't like Viggo but the movie looks great...from the commercials.

R53 - i think they are marketing it like a dark comedy, kind of like Big Short. To me, there is nothing remotely entertaining about anything Cheney-related. And I have no interest in revising a dark American time while we are in an even darker time.

I just finished watching The Hate U Give. It's was far better than I expected (though honestly, I had no idea what it was about, just that it was based on a YA novel). They kept the heavy-handedness to a minimum (until the last half hour, which got super preachy and eye-rolling) and the cast was uniformly excellent. I'd love to see the late Audrey Wells get an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. She really was a terrific writer who had her share of clunkers, but did some great work, too.

R58 it started with that WOLF OF WALL STREET. Then that Tonya Harding movie last year. I think we're gonna see more dark comedies based on bad/evil people until it runs its course.

Mary Poppins Returns will turn out to be a last minute surprise and win the Oscar for Best Picture. Emily Blunt will be nominated for Best Actress but won't win. Dick Van Dyke will get the sentimental vote and be nominated for Best Supporting Actor. No prediction yet on his chances of winning.

Agree that Bale would be the frontrunner this year except that he already has an Oscar. Cooper acted and directed himself, as well as co-wrote the ASIB screenplay. I don't think they'll give him the Director statue for his first effort, Ampas voters are too conservative for that.

Given that Bale is only 44 and has years of great performances ahead of him (he seems to be moving into a kind of near Day-Lewis level or phase at this point - not quite, but close, getting there), the Academy will want to leave room to award him his 2nd or even 3rd statues. He also doesn't direct or write, so the acting category is the one where he'll make his mark. I think this is will be his 4th nomination?

So with all this, I'd say Best Actor is going to Cooper. It's his viewed a 'his year'.

The bigger question is who will compete against Gaga in Best Actress? If Vice makes bank and gets the reviews, will they put long-overdue fave Amy Adams in the lead category? She and Colman at this point would be the only real competition.

It's his viewed a 'his year' = it's viewed as 'his year' in r62

Adams is going Supporting, R62, and she looks like the easy winner over Regina King, especially since I’ve heard King doesn’t have much screen time, but she makes up for it with one big scene. I think she’d need more than that to beat Amy Adams.

And it’s Glenn versus Gaga in Actress. Olivia Colman might end up winning the most critic’s prizes, but middle-aged British character actresses just don’t win Best Actress at the Oscars, even if they seem like the early front-runner (Blethyn, Dench, Staunton). And Helen Mirren doesn’t count; she was a star still sold as a sex symbol when she won for “The Queen.”

R61 was just let out of her hospice for fresh air

[quote]And ASIB should beat BR in terms of US box office. FWIW.

Come on now, if you're going to do that you should commit. I'll fix it for ya...

+ ASIB should beat BR ITO US BO. FWIW.

[quote] Adams is going Supporting, [R62], and she looks like the easy winner over Regina King, especially since I’ve heard King doesn’t have much screen time, but she makes up for it with one big scene. I think she’d need more than that to beat Amy Adams.

Oh really?

Mahershala Ali is up for Best Supporting Actress?

R67 Ali benefited from the #OscarsSoWhite movement, which happened that very year.

Not really, R67. He'd been the frontrunner from the get go and won most of the pre-Oscar awards. It wasn't a sop that AMPAS threw at Jada Pinkett Smith to shut her the fuck up.

Ali was the frontrunner because of the #OscarsSoWhite thing. Jada may have started it in January 2016, but it got a life of its own via Twitter et al. Almost immediately, the Academy reacted by shaking up the membership. So when the next Oscar season rolled around, Ali benefited. One, he was black. Two, he was in an important gay film.

Just saw The Favourite. Wow. All three actresses (Rachel W, Emma Stone, Olivia Colman) we’re giving career-best performances. I had no idea how dykey the movie was going to be! (Olivia has one line about how amazing it is having Emma Stone’s tongue up her pussy feels...) I have seen a lot of the main contenders and I have to say that Emma Stone, in particular, was giving a ferocious performance. Olivia Colman is a force to be reckoned with. The last three minutes of this film are insane and virtually inscrutable.

Whatever you say, R71. Whatever you say.

Mahershala Ali also had the benefit of a really weak year for that category, R70. Dev Patel for “Lion” was probably the runner-up for a pretty basic performance, and I suspect it was a closer race than anyone expected. Even though Ali did win most of the critics’ awards, he still lost the BAFTA to Patel and the Globe to Aaron Taylor-Johnson, of all people. That doesn’t scream landslide winner to me.

I still can’t understand why Ali became the one “Moonlight” performance everyone rallied around, even though I’ve always liked him. Naomie Harris was easily the standout to me, and the fact that she filmed her entire performance in a weekend (and she was the only performer in all three segments!) makes it more impressive.

Ali won 46 critics awards for Moonlight. But nah, he wasn't the front-runner.

Rupert Everett should be nominated for Best Actor in "The Happy Prince."

R75 critics awards don't mean anything in the large scheme of things. Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA are the true precursors that matter. Not even LAFCA or NYFCC (the two big critics awards) have much sway in how the Oscar race will turn out.

R74 Lucas Hedges wasn't a weak performance. IMO, he deserved it.

Of course Ali was the front-runner, R75, but he didn’t steamroll the competition like everyone expected. Landslide winners don’t lose the Globe and the BAFTA. And if critics prizes guaranteed Oscars, then Willem Dafoe would have Sam Rockwell’s Oscar. And Laurie Metcalf and Timothee Chalamet work just as well as examples, and those comprise three of the four acting categories from last Oscar season.

R78, I thought Hedges was great, too, but even though I thought he and Michael Shannon were the best in the category, neither even had the slightest chance to win. I guess it’s more accurate to say that none of the top contenders in the category gave performances that really impressed me, rather than to categorize the entire category as weak.

Ethan Hawke was ahh-mazing in First Reformed & in Maudie last year. He's a criminally underrated actor.

[quote] I have never seen anything bad by Nicole Kidman. She really is a great actor and she is beautiful too.

Isn't it lovely, R56, we, as people, can be so diverse? I find Kidman to be totally lacking of any acting ability whatsoever. She was never good - ok, she was indeed luminously lovely, being objectified, in Billy Bathgate and her (very) bad acting was used brilliantly, seemingly in character, by Gus Van Sant in To Die For, but other than that? No.

R46 If the movie was so hyped why couldn't even break 100 million ww? A lot of films that star nobodies can break out and become huge box iffice hits so that excuse is tired, the only people that cared at all for straight friendly cmbyn were critics and snobs. No one outside that circle gave to shits for it like they did bbm.

*two

All four winners last year were white, so this year they'll need actor of color winning. My money is on Regina King.

Regina King would be a worthy winner. Her performance in If Beale Street Could Talk is excellent and she is very well liked in Hollywood. I wanted to take issue with someone earlier who said that her work in the film amounts to one big scene. That’s not true. She does have a big showcase moment and her own little side arc in the film (which she nails) but she provides texture in several other scenes. Some of her best work actually is in the beginning when the Fonny’s family comes over to her house where she is part of the ensemble.

I’m resisting the narrative implied above that she would be wining because she’s a black woman. It’s simply not true. Sometimes the POC is actually giving the best performance.

Now, with all that said, I have to say that I would not be mad if either Rachel Wiesz or Emma Stone somehow won in this category for The Favourite. Both are exceptional. Emma Stone, in particular, has never been better. Both are former winnersso it seems unlikely, but they are both brilliant in that film.

#oscarssoreginaking

So The Favourite is actually good?

[quote]she was indeed luminously lovely, being objectified, in Billy Bathgate

The only objectifying I was doing in Billy Bathgate was Billy Bathgate.

R87, yes, it really is. And the three actresses are all stellar (although, I feel like they are all co-leads with Emma Stone getting slightly more screen time than the other two). I think the trailer makes it look a lot more of a comedy than it ultimately turns out to be. Don’t get me wrong - there are several laugh-out-loud moments throughout but the film and particularly Colman takes on a distinct level of pathos as the film progresses. It seems like the perfect movie for this “year of the woman” too as the men in the film are prissy, impotent fops for the most part. (Nicholas Hoult is always so sexy to me though, even in his frippery and wigs).

One of the best movies I’ve seen this year. I haven’t seen any of Lanthimos’s previous films but I’m excited to check them out now.

[quote]One of the best movies I’ve seen this year. I haven’t seen any of Lanthimos’s previous films but I’m excited to check them out now.

From the trailer of THE FAVOURITE, it's vastly different in tone than THE LOBSTER or KILLING OF A SACRED DEER. While I loved the both of those films, tonally it's a bit too much for some to take.

ASIB will probably win Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Song.

I can't see Gaga taking Actress

I dont know about best picture but itll most likely win best song and Cooper is the fav for now.

I want Colman to win now.

People love Regina King.

[quote]I dont know about best picture but itll most likely win best song and Cooper is the fav for now.

Unless some scandal breaks, I too think ASIB has this one. It’s not about movies per se, but it’s about Hollywood, fame, etc. And we’ve seen time and again, movies with those themes do well.

From r49:

[quote] The Best Supporting Actress race is a minefield where three to four incredible performances will miss the cut for Oscar, but no one should discount Streep sneaking in. Her singing and dancing are just too impressive to discount because she already has 21 nominations and three wins.

M has a more than decent shot. And if the Academy is anything like DL, they will want M in attendance to witness G win - or lose - the BA competition.

For anyone curious about First Reformed who has Amazon Prime, it just showed up on their Prime service.

FWIW, don't waste your time. I would have walked out, but I was on a plane.

I liked First Reformed more than most movies I saw this year.

Boy Erased was a snore.

Had anyone seen Mary Poppins? Any Oscar hope for Blunt? Can any of the songs match ASIB?

r99: I agree about Boy Erased. Don't waste your money.

How rich would it be if G won Best Actress and M took Best Supporting? The inevitable picture of them backstage clutching their respective statuettes and offering up their gurn-like smiles would become a DL classic.

I would love to see Regina King win the Oscar. Emma Stone is great in The Favourite, and this should have been her Oscar win instead of La La Land. I’m giving it to King because they are not going to give Emma 2 Oscars this young, not yet.

I think Supporting Actor will be between Grant and Ali, but I’m going to give it to Ali.

I think Bradley Cooper for Best Actor and I think Best Actress is close between Glenn and Gaga— older voters will probably go with Glenn because they probably believe she’s due one, I think

Regina King is very popular with her peers. She practically wins an Emmy every other year, and gets a standing ovation each time.

I loved how genuinely shocked she looked when she won an Emmy for 7 Seconds.

I think if Crazy Rich Asians goes to the Oscars, Michelle Yeoh will be the only actor to get recognized. But Supporting Actress is tough this year.

I’m skeptical that Lupita Nyong’o gets in on a SA. If Michael B Jordan and Chadwick Boseman get on the ballot, it’s likely due to heavy campaigning. I wish Michael B Jordan was nominated for Creed years ago. He was excellent.

How is Jordan getting recognized for Black Panther? He's fine but doesn't do anything amazing acting wise I it.

Emma Stone is my favorite in supporting this year, but I’ll gladly cheer on Regina King who is really great in Beale Street. A completely lived-in performance from an industry veteran.

I know LaineyGossip thinks MBJ has a chance (the best chance acting wise out of everyone in Black Panther) for a nomination because Heath Ledger set the precedence for actors in a comic book movie getting recognized. But I would argue that Heath Ledger’s performance was on a much different level than what was saw in BP, and The Dark Knight was a much better movie.

I know it happens often but would Stone's nomination be category fraud?

Stone has the most screentime in the film and the most definable arc. But the three women are all hinged on each other throughout the film.I think she probably belongs in the lead category. But I like the performance so much that I really don’t care about the fraud this time.

I think the fact that Stone and Weisz are both literally “supporting” Colman’s royal character is a big part of how the category designations have been dictated.

I think Black Panther has a decent chance of winning Best Picture as long as the snobs don't vote.

Yeah and Viola Davis was supporting her husband in Fences even though shes in over half the movie and the only distinguished female character.

The biggest category fraud I can remember as of late was Alicia Vikander in the Danish Girl

Uh yeah it seemed like she was in the movie more than Redmayne.

R113, I’m not saying that Stone is giving a supporting performance. I was saying that the nature of her role specifically lends itself to justify her category placement.

Supporting actor and actress is supposed to mean the amount screen time is considerably less than a lead actor right? It's not supposed to mean a character is literally supportive of another character in the film.

Oh good lord. We are not in disagreement about this!!! I am trying to say that I can see the studio itself (and even the Academy voters) using the justification I have already laid out for the placement of Colman in lead and Stone/Weisz in support in their voting/nominating. Sort of like how it was somehow decided that Alfre Woodard’s caregiver role was “supporting” Mary McDonnell (who played her employer) in Passion Fish regardless of the fact that the two women have practically equal screen time.

Are you, like, fucking dense or something?

Not dense. Just think it's a stupid way to do it

I agree. It doesn’t make any sense. But not once have I said that this is what should be done. I don’t know why you you keep implying that I’m outlining it and owning it as my own justification for category placement. I very clearly said that Emma Stone is a co-lead in the film. I simply stated that the nature of her supportive role is giving the studio a reason to justify her eligibility for a supporting nomination.

Viola Davis was lead in Fences #CategoryFraud

Stone is not supporting in The Favourite #CategoryFraud

Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara were also category frauds

many supporting actress/actors have been category fraud win

Stone, Weisz and Coleman are all lead in The Favourite the movie has 3 leads

Rooney Mara had more screen time than Blanchett in Carol and she was the lead

R103 I would love to see Regina King win the Oscar.

I would love to see that Regina King win the Oscar and beat DL fave and closet actress Lamy Adams

So Amy Adams is gay now, too?

R124 Do you think she will even get on the ballot? I read that Adams and Chalamet could possibly be left off their respect categories because of MarinaDe Tavira, Michelle Yeoh, and Margot Robbie for Adams and Sam Elliott, Sam Rockwell and Alex Wolff for Chalamet

R126 Do you think she will even get on the ballot?

Yes

Early Buzz on ‘Vice’ Touts Christian Bale and Amy Adams as Oscar Contenders

R127 Nice. I love it when nobody runs away with it

Never count out Amy Adams. She even knocked Emma Thompson out of the running in 2013 for a surprise lead actress nod for American Hustle.

That said, I cannot see both Glenn AND Amy getting their overdue Oscars in the same year. That narrative is only going to play in one of those categories.

Amy Adams looks like Hilary Clinton in Vice if Adams loses this year her next Oscar bait project probably will be a Hilary biopic

Adams always had Harvey and his money to heavy campaign for her and strength of her films not exactly her performances

I barely even remember Lynn Cheney and Indon’t think I’ve ever heard her speak.

This could be a The Master-type performance for her where she was silently evil in the background.

Meryl’s coming for that 22nd Oscar nom.

“Mary Poppins Returns” could also send a familiar face back to the Dolby Theater, none other than Meryl Streep. The legendary actress doesn’t have a huge role but she toplines one major musical number and it also just happens to be one of the most memorable of the picture. And, of course, she’s Meryl so she’s great in it. The Best Supporting Actress race is a minefield where three to four incredible performances will miss the cut for Oscar, but no one should discount Streep sneaking in. Her singing and dancing are just too impressive to discount because she already has 21 nominations and three wins.

Adams was so forgettable in The Master

I think Vice will do very poorly at the box office.

I thought Sam Rockwell’s win was also category fraud. He was clearly the male lead in Three Billboards.

[quote]I read that Adams and Chalamet could possibly be left off their respect categories because of MarinaDe Tavira, Michelle Yeoh, and Margot Robbie for Adams and Sam Elliott, Sam Rockwell and Alex Wolff for Chalamet

Yeoh? Robbie? Alex Who? You need a Bridesmaid-level performance to get a supporting nom for a comedy and Robbie is getting panned. No one even knows who Wolff is, and supporting actor for a teen in a horror movie over last year’s best actor runner up?

But please, keep trollin’. It’s fun!

R137 I’d consider Alex Wolff to be a contender, maybe not a lead one, but Herditary was a great movie full of great performances. Get Out was a horror movie that won last year. I like Chalamet but Beautiful Boy is a weak movie

[quote]But I would argue that Heath Ledger’s performance was on a much different level than what was saw in BP, and The Dark Knight was a much better movie.

Heath got it because of his passing. The award was practically given to him before the movie even opened. His performance (which isn't very good) had nothing to do with him getting the Oscar.

The Nolan Batman series has not aged well at all. The movies are overlong and dreary. The stories are basic and there's some terrible characterizations (Anne Hathaway's Catwoman being the absolute worst). Wonder Woman, Black Panther, and the Raimi Spider man's are much better movies.

Ledger also got the Oscar to appease the gay community who felt he had been robbed for Brokeback.

It was partly a PC win.

R139 I think we will have to agree to disagree. I agree that Batman Begins and The Dark Knight Rises werent perfect. But, I still think The Dark Knight holds up and will hold up for years to come. I also loved Ledger’s performance.

As for Marvel, I personally think Captain America Civil War would have been their best shot at attention from major awards. I remember reading some critics saying they hoped RDJ would at least get a GG nod. I also think Captain America 2 was a better movie than BP. I think it sort of falls apart at the end.

Variety proclaims Mary Poppins Returns as a serious Oscar contender

R136 I thought Sam Rockwell’s win was also category fraud. He was clearly the male lead in Three Billboards.

You are absolutely right Rockwell was lead

R140 Philip Seymour Hoffman deserved to win for his performance in Doubt instead of Ledger

Robbie is getting panned?

I agree with the poster who brought up Alex Wolff. I thought he was excellent in the very problematic Hereditary. Toni and her screen son have both been nominated before in a horror film.

If Ledger hadn't died, I honestly think that RDJ would've won. Talk about a comeback! Plus, he had a banner year with IRON Man and then his Oscar-nominated performance in TROPIC THUNDER. Not to mention that he was a previous Oscar-nominee (CHAPLIN). PSH had recently won, and the rest (Ledger, Josh Brolin, Michael Shannon) were first-timers.

Also, Ledger would've still been in his twenties. The only other twentysomethings that had won Supporting Actor were George Chakiris (WEST SIDE STORY), Timothy Hutton (ORDINARY PEOPLE), and Cuba Goodking, Jr. (JERRY MAGUIRE). Not a good track record.

If Ledger had lost to PSH *again* there would have been riots.

R138 GET OUT was a box office smash; HEREDITARY was profitable but not to that level.

Adam Driver could be another BSA nominee

PSH was also better than Waltz in that crappy Weinstein produced film

I loved Heath Ledger but count me amongst those who say he only won (a) because he died and (b) as a make-up for having denied him Best Actor for "Brokeback." Without those two elements in play, I really don't think he would've won for "Dark Knight."

And R150, I agree about Driver. I also don't know why there's no buzz for Denzel's son, John David, who was excellent in "Blackkklansman."

God, I hope Driver doesn't get a nomination. He did nothing. What a truly mediocre movie that was.

I think Melissa could get a SA nom, but she might have the same problem Eddie Murphy did after Dreamgirls... her other work doesn’t hold up

Am I the only one who thinks Streep is an overly mannered ham of an actress?

No, I think the same thing, r155, at least these days. I used to like her, but everything she does is over the top and hammy now. She was awful in Doubt, awful in Iron Lady, and absolutely embarrassing in August Osage County. She wasn't really hammy in The Post last year, but she also wasn't very interesting.

If Mary Poppins does take off, watch the Academy slavishly nominate Streep in Supporting.

[quote]How rich would it be if G won Best Actress and M took Best Supporting? The inevitable picture of them backstage clutching their respective statuettes and offering up their gurn-like smiles would become a DL classic.

OMFG, how cool would that be? And Streep winning her 4th Oscar would probably upstage Glenn finally winning her 1st! LOL

Streep's not winning a 4th Oscar this year.

[quote]Streep winning her 4th Oscar would probably upstage Glenn finally winning her 1st!

Doubtful. It's not like 4 hasn't been done already (by Kate Hepburn, and her four were all for Best Actress, no supporting Oscars).

Oh, god, I remember when everyone was so sure Streep was going to win #4 for “Into the Woods,” and that was even after it screened. And then Meryl just scraped by with a nomination because it was a barren category and no one was going to beat Patricia Arquette anyway, so might as well name-check Streep as always to class up a category that had Keira Knightley and Emma Stone.

“Mary Poppins Returns” is still a Disney movie, and that company (which is terrible at Oscar campaigning) will focus on “Black Panther” because that movie getting snubbed would cause a Twitter firestorm, leaving it as Disney’s second priority. It’s the film people are talking about because it’s the shiny new thing, but this is the Oscar version of a bubble if I’ve ever seen one.

"Mary Poppins Returns" is hardly Disney's second priority, and it's a film that has a great deal more Oscar potential in more categories than "Black Panther" does anyway. Disney is already giving it a first class rollout, and they will beat the drums loudly for Oscar. They did a pretty big campaign for "Saving Mr. Banks," even though that one was not likely for much by the time campaign season started.

Y’all are crazy. Like it or not, Ledger created the most iconic villainous performance of the decade. From an Oscar history perspective, it’s pretty cool that two of the other great 00’s villains- Anton Chigurh and Hans Landa- won Bardem and Waltz Oscars in the years just before and after Ledger. What a great streak for that category.

Bardem won an Oscar? Wow, I don't even remember that.

R163 I only remember because Penelope Cruz became the frontrunner for Supporting Actress the following year for VICKI CRISTINA BARCELONA after Kate Winslet (THE READER) was nominated in Lead. I thought it would be so cool if Bardem presented her with the Oscar because they had been dating for two years by that point and they both became the first (and only so far) Spanish actors to win an Oscar (back to back, at that). But then the Academy decided to do 5 former Oscar winners for the acting categories, instead.

"First Reformed" was one of the worst films of the year

Do you guys think Dolly is going to give some competition to Gaga over Best Song?

"First reformed" bombed at BO.

R167 Haven't most of the Oscar hopefuls so far?

Warner Bros is making a serious push on ASIB, as expected. Critics and various academy members getting screeners with a personal note from Cooper and a note from Gaga’s journal with Shallow lyrics.

I personally hope it wins BP. Would be nice to have a popular movie win.

Surely it must be favourite to win BP at this point.

[quote]"First reformed" bombed at BO.

Which is ironic since Ethan Hawke always has BO.

Anyone but Bale, because I still think he’s a jerk.

This thread has really taken off.

Just wanted to mention, Variety didn't LOVE Vice. They paid their respects to Bale's efforted performance but didn't hold back about the rest of it and said it sucked. Wasn't a comedy, no audience for it, said it made you feel worse about yourself by film's end. Doesn't sound like a winner to me but then it never did.

FYI, to R167, Paul Schrader doesn't exactly have a reputation for creating blockbusters, certainly not on his own. The box office of First Reformed is irrelevant. Paul Schrader won James Coburn an Oscar for Affliction and he'll likely get a Best Actor nod for Ethan Hawke, who is terrific in it (even more so because he has to act opposite Amanda Seyfried) and probably a Best Original Screenplay nod for himself. It is a very small film that nonetheless packs a punch and manages to address several key issues of the day including climate change, when activism becomes terrorism, church v state and role of religion in politics. There's a lot going on in that little movie.

Variety hasn’t reviewed Vice yet, has it? I don’t think anyone has.

Too all the Toni Collette/Hereditary fans - whatabout Tilda Swinton in Suspiria! It won't likely be nominated for anything, unless is sneaks in a nomination for art direction or something, but I loved Suspiria! Saw it with a nearly sold out audience (in London last weekend) all of whom were so totally engaged in the film that I never saw anyone take out a mobile phone or go to the restroom - it was fantastic! People go on about Meryl Streep but honestly, I'm embarrassed for Meryl always swanning about like The World's Greatest Actress when Tilda Swinton roams the earth! I loved Suspiria. I think people and critics are too busy comparing it to the original - which was absolutely looney - when Gaudagnino has made a serious, straight-faced film about witches. In Berlin! It was really great and will definitely have a life beyond its theatrical release. Just give it time for the right audience to discover it. People keep going on about, "oh, it's not really scary..." Exactly. It's not a run of the mill scary movie. It's disturbing.

Variety reviewed it at the weekend.

"The film packs an infuriating punch as McKay writes history with lightning yet again. The question for pretty much anyone that he, production company Plan B and distributor Annapurna hopes to engage with this material over the holidays is whether we’re ready to dissect it all. Is the move-going audience — indeed, are Academy voters — ready to take stock of all this chapter in history with the depressing news glowing up at us from our mobile devices on a daily basis? It would be a hell of a time to hand someone an Oscar for portraying this particular man, and that takes nothing from Bale’s brilliant work. By the same token, “Vice” could be argued as the most urgent and important film in the race this year. One just wonders if the stomach is there for it.

"We’ll survey the lead actor category more in-depth in an upcoming column, but it’s safe to say Bale joins “A Star Is Born” multi-hyphenate Bradley Cooper on the top tier of the competition. If the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. accepts Annapurna’s comedy placement for “Vice” (they may well, but this is far less of a comedy than “The Big Short”), then the two actors will likely split the Golden Globe prizes, which will send them headlong into phase two of the season."

Most Underwhelming Film of The Year would have to be....Leave No Trace. Anyone who saw Running On Empty in the late '80s knew exactly where this was going from the very first frame. Ben Foster was good (as always) in a very underwritten role and the juvenile lead was good (she looked like what one would imagine the adult Jodie Foster to look like if Jodie Foster actually looked like that as a child). Not sure what the excitement for this film was all about.

Also, despite the box office success of BR, I really don't think anyone considers Rami Malek a box office draw - the draw for BR was obviously Queen. People went for the music. Even my young niece said, "The script wasn't very good." Probably the first time I've ever heard her have an opinion about a script!

Next up for Rami Malek: Voicing a cartoon animal in a Dr. Doolittle movie. Seems about right.

[quote]Just wanted to mention, Variety didn't LOVE Vice. They paid their respects to Bale's efforted performance but didn't hold back about the rest of it and said it sucked. Wasn't a comedy, no audience for it, said it made you feel worse about yourself by film's end. Doesn't sound like a winner to me but then it never did.

I’m not getting “it sucked” from that Variety review. Hard sell to a wide audience? Sure but we already knew that. In fact, Tapley’s review is pretty much a rave.

[quote]But Bale isn’t the full story here, of course. It’s an inspired ensemble McKay has once again pulled together, from Amy Adams as Cheney’s wife Lynne (a Lady Macbeth-like figure) to Steve Carell’s irreverent Donald Rumsfeld to Oscar winner Sam Rockwell’s clueless George W. Bush... Beyond that, it’s an excellently crafted piece of work.

So Green Book flopped at BO too. Roma cheated and has limited theatre release so doesn't really count. Vice and Favourite haven't opened yet in theatres. Windows flopped at BO. ASIB is the only contender which did well with BO.

What's up with The Wife's BO? Did it flop or not?

That’s not the Variety review. It’s just Kris Tapley riffing. He’s not their critic. Owen Gleiberman (sp?) is. I’m not saying the actual review will be any better or worse, but for the moment there are no reviews out.

[quote] all of whom were so totally engaged in the film (Suspiria) that I never saw anyone take out a mobile phone or go to the restroom

No, dear. They weren't engaged. They were all taking a fucking nap during that interminable snooze of a movie. That's why they didn't move.

Funny how no one is talking about that bomb, The Wife. Poor Glenn. A loser once again.

R185 so it bombed?

[quote]That’s not the Variety review. It’s just Kris Tapley riffing. He’s not their critic.

I know, he’s a pundit so his take is pretty biased. Someone upthread claimed Variety said Vice sucked which is clearly not the case, even if Tapkey’s take isn’t the official review.

Bale, Cooper, Dafoe, Malek, Viggo. There. Done. Four vets and one newbie card.

The Favourite is one of my “favorite” films of the year. Five stars.

Is Coleman campaigning for BA or BSA?

R188 and for ladies?

Not feeling as confident there, R191, not even sure about Glenn. The "Favorite" actress seems the only guarantee (if she is not supporting) and I guess Gaga too. I find it hard to get excited about "Star is Born" though, feels like it might've peaked early -- and some "King's Speech" tony effort will come along and unseat it. Cooper will get his, though.

It’s Colman, R190. Like the mustard.

They are campaigning Colman for lead. Stone and Weisz for supporting.

I saw the previews for Vice. Bale's portrayal was good mostly because of ingenious makeup. I saw A Star is Born, expecting to be bowled over by Gaga. I wasn't. But Cooper was phenomenal. Never thought too much of him before this. Hope he wins.

Actress: Colman, Gaga, McCarthy, Glenn are locks at this point. The fifth spot is up for grabs.

I'll go watch VICE, but I'm also the type of guy who roots for the villain in superhero movies.

Don't know why vice went to all caps.

Collette gets the fifth spot.

I would LOVE for Collette and Wolff to get nods, but genre bias is real. Get Out was great, deserved every nomination and win, but what made it exempt was its timeliness

[quote] People go on about Meryl Streep but honestly, I'm embarrassed for Meryl always swanning about like The World's Greatest Actress when Tilda Swinton roams the earth!

Oh, I love Gilda too!

Vice is still under review embargo. What was just printed were general reactions to the initial screenings in LA over the weekend. Most of the trades posted write ups about it in their "Under Consideration" posts/columns. The actual reviews are yet to come.

Vice isn’t going to be the complete irrelevance that The Front Runner is but it will be close.

“Vice” has two acting nominations at the Oscars in the bag (Bale, Adams), and a third a possibility, depending on whether Carell or Rockwell becomes the campaign focus. “The Front Runner” will have to strive for a random Jackman nod at the Golden Globes but will probably just settle for the Satellites.

Just finished watching Can You Ever Forgive Me and I loved it. McCarthy was really, really good. Richard E. Grant less so, but I've also never been a big fan of his. I thought the screenplay was very well written, and as much as I do not like Jeff Whitty, I can't imagine a better contender this year for Adapted than this.

[quote]ASIB is the only contender which did well with BO.

Best Picture is going to come down to a battle between A Star is Born and Mary Poppins Returns. MPR will do huge box office as soon as it opens and the advance word on it is very positive.

For those who think “Mary Poppins Returns” has a chance to win Best Picture, what in recent Academy history suggests it’s the type of thing they’d like? Seriously, they chose movies like “The Shape of Water” or “Moonlight” now, and even when they gave the original “Mary Poppins” a couple Oscars, it still lost the top prize to “My Fair Lady” (and Douglas and de Havilland aside, nearly all those voters are dead. At least with “A Star is Born,” there’s enough evidence that Academy members still like showbiz stories and movies directed by actors.

For MPR to win, it has to earn over 50% on the Oscar’s preferential ballot. “First Man” and “If Beale Street Could Talk” fare better on that measure, and neither is going to win Best Picture either.

[quote]What's up with The Wife's BO?

Oh M, Glenn took care of that problem two or three projects ago.

Everyone went nuts about "Chicago" when it came out, r207, likewise at the end of the year, and that carried it into Oscar season and triumphing. The same thing may well happen to Poppins if it really is as good as the first screening gossip suggests (I know three different people who were at the Disney screening in LA and thought it was brilliantly done).

Is ASIB really any better than the other 23 versions of it already produced? Ugh. No best picture for a retread.

“Chicago” didn’t win Best Picture under the same voting system, it wasn’t a Disney sequel aimed at a family audience, and even though it had Harvey pushing it at the height of his dark powers it still nearly lost to “The Pianist.”

And first screenings always get the best reactions. Remember “The Post” last year? Based on that first screening, people were ready for it to sweep the top five, and then it settled for two pity nods it received on name alone. (When the most exciting part of your performance is wearing a caftan, it’s a pity nod, and that’s being gracious.)

R210 And that's why Glenn can't win Best Actress. No Best Actress for a..

Oh, you wrote "retread".

I thought you wrote something else.

Meryl wore a caftan in “The Post”? I don’t remember that, maybe I’ve blocked it out cause it was so boring.

As I recall, we only had one real “Post” booster who had seen it early, and it may have been the Poppins Loon. There was one film that everyone was sure was going to sweep. (Ladybird? The Shape of Water? I can’t remember). Anyway, he hated it, whoever he was, and tried to push the notion that The Post would sweep, When Streep got her nomination (and whatever the other one was) he still declared victory.

Emily Blunt is now a firm contender for Best Actress.

Olivia Colman Lady Gaga Emily Blunt

are locks.

Ugh, seriously last year the winner of BP was a movie with good BO. All 4 winners of acting awards were from movies which made nice BO too. Those were the movies people actually went to see. This year if Close wins, it will be a win in BO flop movie that people barely saw.

My God. If Mary Poppins Returns wins Best Picture, will the Poppins Loon jump off a bridge?

Mary Poppins is already getting raves, according to insiders.. it might be the film to beat at the Oscars over ASIB.

I don’t think Close is even assured a nomination. Where is her constituency within the Academy? The Wife fizzled really fast. She should’ve gone for it last year when it seemed less calculated.

[quote]This year if Close wins, it will be a win in BO flop movie that people barely saw.

That could never happen!

Still Alice was so forgettable. Talk about a movie you’ll literally never watch again.

I would have voted for Marion Cotillard that year for Two Days, One Night.

Still Alice wasn't a flop, it was successful, it's budget was $4 million and it made $43.9 million.

It wasn’t a flop; it was boring as fuck.

Mary Queen of Scots reviews stoke Oscar fire for 'savagely strong' Saoirse Ronan

R220 Still Alice was so forgettable. Talk about a movie you’ll literally never watch again.

R220 I would have voted for Marion Cotillard that year for Two Days, One Night.

I would have voted for Witherspoon even though she's a former winner

What if Close is not even nominated? And they nominate Ronan instead?

Reese Witherspoon was very good in Wild. I thought her acting was better there than when she won for Walk the Line.

This thread is making my fibromyalgia flare up!

I mean, my PTSD! Oops.

Please pray for me. I just hope I make it until February.

Transamerica and Huffman's acting has aged so badly

Sam Rockwell as GWB in Vice can get it.

Sam Rockwell #puke

Sam Rockwell as Sam Rockwell as GWB

Is VICE a play on 'vice' which means 'depraved' and refers to the vice presidency?

I think it’ll be a tie between McCarthy and Ronan as to who gets on the ballot. Ronan has a better body of work which could help her

OTOH Ronan is young, has her whole career ahead, and her hot streak has to cool sometime

Did anyone watch A Star is Born and think Bradley Cooper's character was actually right?

Scientologist (and liar) at R81.

Kidman is known for being Tammy's ex lesbian beard and working on multiple Weinstein films

She's a vastly overrated as an actress there are hundreds of actresses who are better than Kidman

First Reformed is brilliant. It's a complete masterpiece.

I'm amazed you stayed awake, R238

Stewart was better than Moore in Still Alice

True, R240.

I think Moore was great in "Still Alice" but her performance in "Maps To the Stars" that same year was even better.

Same thing for Cotillard. The Immigrant > 2 Days, One Night

God, the only thing worse than Still Alice that year was Maps to the Stars.

Moore wasn’t a bad winner, even though I doubt anyone thinks she was better in “Still Alice” than “Boogie Nights” or “Far From Heaven.” I would have voted for Rosamund Pike over her, but it’s not like Moore won a career award for a performance like “Cocoon” or “Scent of a Woman.”

And to say Stewart was better than Moore is crazy. She botched the “Angels in America” monologue, and in her other scenes she was passable, at best. Stewart didn’t suddenly become a good actress just because she stopped doing vampire romances, even if she was never as bad as the material. She’s still the female Keanu, blanks that auteurs like because they’re canvasses on which directors can project whatever they like.

[quote] Scientologist (and liar) at [R81].

Scientologist? No. (And Tom Cruise is a worse actor than Kidman, if that's even possible). A liar? Certainly, on many occasions, but what made you, R236, say it, based on what I said? I didn't state anything factual, only my opinion, and opinions, regardless of what people like Trump try to tell you, are not true or false. Facts are.

And I love you too.

I can’t believe you bitches are still going on about Still Alice. Let it go already.

R244 Stewart didn’t suddenly become a good actress just because she stopped doing vampire romances

She's been always good even before the Twilight films people trash her for her performance in Twilight but anyone who has read the books know that she played Bella as she was exactly described in the books

[quote]She botched the “Angels in America” monologue

that's not true it was the best thing about that film

I normally can’t stand Stewart but have to admit her performance was very effective in Still Alice

I got a feeling Close won't win it.

Kristen Stewart was actively bad in The Runaways. Her Joan Jett was not believable at all.

OK, I finally saw "The Wife" - worst film of this or any other year

Not true. I can name several worse... just off the top of my head: MAXIE, HOOK, THE STEPFORD WIVES remake. They do all seem to have something in common, though.

R250 She was great in The Runaways

I also thought both Stewart and Dakota Fanning were good in The Runaways, but Michael Shannon was great

Michael Shannon is always great but sometimes overacting in some roles

You forgot House of Spirits, Meryl, where even I acted circles around you and your man friend.

Michael Shannon was so great in The Shape of Water why wasn't he nominated for his performance?

I’m still kind of confused as to why The Florida Project was snubbed after rewatching it the other day. Had it come out about 12 years ago it would have been heavily represented at the Oscars

The Florida Project was a snooze. Good riddance.

[quote]I got a feeling Close won't win it.

I've got that same feeling, r249!

I loved Florida Project and Willem Dafoe was better than Rockwell who wasn't even supporting in Three Billboards

I thought the little girl who played Mooney could have been nominated too, she was really good. They’ve nominated child actors who gave sub par performances so I was shocked she wasn’t a nominee

Who has seen Willem Dafoe's movie?

Watching the "Mary Poppins" special on ABC. Looks beautifully done. Think it will be a huge hit and could easily see it getting a lot of nominations come awards season.

If both ASIB and Mary Poppins get nominated for anything, all we're going to see for the rest of our lives is remakes. It was already bad enough but if they start awarding that shit, originality is dead.

Mary Poppins Returns is not a remake though.

The thug mom I'm The Florida Project was wretched and amateur. She took me out of the movie constantly.

R267 I don’t know, I liked that the actors looked like real people. She looked and talked like someone you’d assume be in that situation. Jennifer Lawrence is the only current actress I think could have done a good job and not make it seem like a caricature, if she mixed the trailer parkness between her character in Winter’s Bone and that batshitness of her character in American Hustle. Brittany Murphy would have nailed that role had it been shot years ago.

R268 Never thought about that, but good point about Murphy.

Man, I miss her.

[quote] so I was shocked she wasn’t a nominee

She didn't suck the right dicks.

They found that "Florida Project" mom on Instagram so there is that. Wonder if she'll work again.

The kid in "Extremely Loud..." ruined it for me and he was found on "Jeopardy". Sometimes a little training goes a long way.

This years Variety’s Actors and Actor’s matchups for those interested:

Lady Gaga and Lin Manuel Miranda

Mahershala Ali and John David Washington

Emily Blunt and Hugh Jackman

Emma Stone and Timothee Chalamet

Melissa McCarthy and Lupita Nyong’o

Nicole Kidman and Amy Adams

Charlize Theron and Michael B Jordan

Armie Hammer and Dakota Johnson

Glenn Close and Sam Elliott

Viggo Mortensen and Chadwick Boseman

Regina King and Maggie Gyllenhaal

John Krasinski and Rosamund Pike

Felicity Jones and Constance Wu

Constance Fucking Wu... vomit.

Wonder if she'll go after any Best Actor nominees this year. Somehow she missed Oldman last round.

R273 I hope she doesn’t go Jada Pinkett Smith if CRA is snubbed of major acting awards

I would have loved to see Michelle Yeoh instead... what a career!

Kidman v Adams should be interesting. The rest of the matchups....meh.

R275 Kidman v Adams should be interesting.

What's interesting about these two bores?

I laughed at Viggo and Chadwick... er, not the best timing.

Gaga and LMM will either be really great or insufferable

I don’t understand what these match-ups are. Can someone explain?

R278 Variety magazine has the paired actors interview each other and talk about their experiences, motivations, etc ahead of award season. Usually they are people you wouldn’t expect to be paired together and/or people who haven’t worked together

Here’s an example

Another example

Thanks, R379/R280.

When I saw "The Wife" recently, all I could think of is that Glenn is starting to look an awful lot like Doris Packer.

R273, why would she go after any Best Actor nominee?

R283 I believe R273 is talking about how Constance Wu spoke up loudly about how upset she was that Casey Affleck received no award backlash after he was accused of sexual assault

R284, is anyone of the potential nominees accused of sexual assault like Affleck?

R285 No, not that I recall. Viggo Mortensen said the N word at a press event for The Green Book which could hurt him, though. I suspect if he gets a nom and one of the BP actors doesn’t, they’ll be some inevitable backlash

R286, then Constance Wu won't go after them.

Viggo won’t be getting a nom. Green Book is a flop.

I've said this a lot up thread but practically every Oscar movie is flopping. Box office success does play a part in Oscar noms but I don't see it being a big factor at all this year. Only ASIB has done well so I still see Mortenson getting that nom. I doubt that whole N word controversy hurt him that badly.

And the surprise box office success puts Rami from a Maybe to a Definite. He went from another "James Brown biopic/good job but no cigar" performance to "Buddy Holly Story" fast.

If Green Book is flopping what will that do the Marashala's chances? Most of the experts at Gold Derby have him still as first choice for Supporting Actor. Would they give to him again, just two years after winning the same award? (Yeah, Christoph Walz I know.....).

R291 DJANGO UNCHAINED was a hit, so that helped Waltz's chances the second time.

Does anyone think Viola Davis could contend for Best Actress?

Rami will get a GG nom (musical/comedy - though aren't they trying to position BR for, erm, drama? That could leave him out in the cold). But if he doesn't get a SAG nom, he's toast. With that terrible script, he was basically just doing karaoke. Also, it was Queen that was the box office draw, not Rami Malek.

R294 no one is saying that Rami was the draw, but a massive box office hit almost always helps someone on the fringes get the 5th slot. Do you think Hugh Jackman would've gotten an Oscar nod for LES MISERABLES if that movie had tanked?

I don’t think Ali’s getting a nomination for Green Book because the “magic negro” backlash against the film will be an obstacle.

I never saw Les Miserables but I assume the role of Jean Valjean was more demanding dramatically than prancing about lip-synching to Queen songs. I mean, Rami didn't even play a death scene. Let's not confuse the real person with the 2D character he was reduced to in the film.

Jackman sang horribly in LES MIZ and would definitley not have gotten a nomination if the film hadn't been a success. Only Anne Hathaway seemed a sure thing.

Anne Hathaway was a sure thing because they wanted to bestow the curse of BSA on her so she’d go away for good. It worked and she did.

Speaking of Anne Hathaway... can anyone name sone Oscar speeches that were just as annoying as hers?

R300, Gwyneth Paltrow.

Paltrow's speech was the fucking worst. Her crying and emotions seemed fake and forced.

As Fernanda Montenegro put it on Brazilian TV a week after the awards: “I lost the Oscar to a little girl crying over her dead grandfather.”

Paltrow managed to be cringeworthy and pompous at the same time. Her best work to date.

R299 Yes, she really went away.

That's why she was just the MVP in a hit summer movie.

R273 That's because she was told by ABC and her reps to keep her mouth shut after she went after Casey. Though unlike Armie Hammer, she didn't have to apologize.

Jada can get away with it because she has her husband's money.

The triple team of inclusion, the success of the film and her being on an ABC sitcom almost guarantees the Wu knat will be asked to present. I doesn't seem like one to pass.

R307 Yup, she'll definitely be a presenter. Though it seems like the success of CRA has benefited Henry Golding far more. He's being cast in a lot of upcoming projects, whereas the one thing Constance was in negotiations for fell through. (It was some Jennifer Lopez movie.)

I think Gemma Chan will also benefit. She’s gorgeous.

Also, remember when Chris Rock called out JPS at the Oscars after she boycotted?

"Jada said she's not coming. I was like, 'Isn't she on a TV show?' Jada's gonna boycott the Oscars? Jada boycotting the Oscars is like me boycotting Rihanna's panties. I wasn't invited! You get mad. It’s not fair that Will was this good and didn’t get nominated. It’s also not fair that Will was paid $20 million for ‘Wild Wild West.”

And the audience lost it. She played it off like she didn’t care in the press, but I bet she was livid watching at home

Bad bad form for an actor to attack another and try to steer folks away from voting from him when he's nominated -- especially since she wasn't involved (and the allegations were long before settled anyway). Tacky shit. I swore then I'd never watch her in another project again so no CRA for me, thanks.

R310. A lot of them were just pointing out the blatant hypocrisy. The Academy is a joke when it comes to dealing with controversial shit. It's like they pick and choose what they are going to let slide or not and that is very annoying. I don't blame them for speaking out but why they do I don't know since everyone and their mom knows the Academy plays these kind of games. But I guess if you don't speak nothing changes.

Wu seems the type to overdress for the Golden Globes with a measly Comedy nomination she could never win.

James Franco didn’t get an Oscar nom despite winning Best Actor at the GG because of misconduct allegations. Had Casey been nominated last year, the same thing would have happened to him. But then again, Kobe Bryant won an Oscar last year.

I think most people agreed with Wu, but I’m sure she probably pissed off some Affleck friends in the industry by calling them out, like Matt Damon. They probably still think of her as a TV girl and nothing more.

Which she is, basically. She just happened to be the lead of one particularly hot film. The perception of her as a TV actress will most likely persist.

[quote]But then again, Kobe Bryant won an Oscar last year.

Kobe's reckoning came after his win. The Academy didn't invite him to join the Academy despite Oscar winners automatically gain an invitation and an Animation Festival dropped him as a juror after his Oscar win.

She doesn’t have anything coming up other than a voiceover role and presumably the sequel to the first movie, but that could very well change. She’s 36 which means she’s competing with the Emily Blunt’s and Kerry Washington’s of the world

Gemma Chan is in Mary, Queen of Scots and Captain Marvel

[quote]Anne Hathaway was a sure thing because they wanted to bestow the curse of BSA on her so she’d go away for good. It worked and she did.

That's just DL lore and speculation. Hathaway didn't become insufferable to most until the Oscar season officially began in January 2013, when she started winning Critics Choice, GG, SAG, and BAFTA in quick succession. She was already declared the frontrunner while the movie was being made in early 2012, because her character checked off all the Academy requirements: 1) long-suffering single mother, 2) a woman done bad by a man, 3) prostitute, 4) sacrifice & selfless death. Then it solidified her status when a teaser was released in the summer featuring mainly her singing bits of "I Dream a Dream" and getting her long hair chopped. But her insufferable acceptance speeches really turned off a lot of people.

And, to top it off, Wu isn't even very good on TV. As limited as one can get. Annoying + Untalented = a very short ride, I hope.

Do people hate Wu here because she went after Affleck?

R320. I doubt it. No one cares about Casey Affleck, especially on DL where no one is really liked anyway. Except the Golden Girls.

I don’t think anyone here hates her. I agreed with her criticisms about Casey. I just personally don’t think CRA is Oscar worthy.

I wonder if Affleck works again in the supporting roles in the movies no one will watch or he will be just fine with his career.

R323 Not in this current climate, no way. He’s got his Best Actor, I think he’ll continue to quietly live his life

The Casey Affleck thing is so boring. There were no criminal charges ever brought. It was settled out of court which means the two parties were able to reach an agreement and settle their differences. I mean, honestly, “Woman Sleeps In Actor’s Bed, Shocked To Be Hit On” isn’t exactly an earth shattering headline.

Actually, I take that back. He is starring in a movie he wrote costarring... Elizabeth Moss.

R326, Elizabeth Moss... the Handmaiden's Tale Elizabeth Moss? Lol. I guess he is going to be just fine.

R327 Well, this isn’t exactly a good look for Moss, considering the content of her show

Erm, she gets raped every week on her show. She’ll be right at home on a film set with Casey Affleck.

[quote]I just personally don’t think CRA is Oscar worthy

Well, not to be contrarian, but I just don't get the big deal about ASIB either. Yes, it was a good movie and Bradley and Gaga were both okay, but the best picture of the year? Really? I say the same about Black Panther -- good movie, enjoyable, but hardly worthy of all the Best Picture talk. Seriously, the movies that get put up on pedestals and heralded as "the best of the year" -- while others that are just as good, if not better, are completely ignored -- is just so fucking bizarre to me. And yes, I know it's all about what gets pushed by the studios, etc., but it's still just aggravating as a film fan who knows there is much better work out there that, year after year, will be passed over at awards season in favor of perfectly-adequate mediocrities starring the hot celebrity of the moment.

It’s too bad they don’t give out Cable ACE Awards anymore. CRA would be a great contender for one of those.

Oh, I agree about Black Panther. My personal favorite of the year is The Favourite and I doubt it’ll win.

I have no idea why they are pushing Lupita so hard for a nomination. Anyone could have played that character. MBJ was the best, but even then, I don’t know if that performance can stand up with the others in the SA category

Michelle Yeoh is pegged to get a supporting nom for CRA this year. Not so much because of the movie but for her long and interesting career.

[quote]I have no idea why they are pushing Lupita so hard for a nomination.

You know why. Any actor of color who is remotely passable in a box office smash is going to be pushed henceforth (see R333). Plus, Lupita is a previous/recent Oscar nominee/winner, and that can be beneficial.

[quote] That's why she was just the MVP in a hit summer movie.

We were talking about Anne Hathaway, not Akwafina.

R334 I guess. But I actually thought Letitia Wright was better and had the better character

Is Lupita N really a contender? Gold Derby has her way down at number 20, way below actresses who are far more likely to get nominated, including front runner Regina King.

R337 No, but Marvel has Lupita on the press circuit for award season along with Chadwick Boseman and Michael B Jordan.

I’d put Lupita behind both Wright and Danai Gurira in terms of “Black Panther” Supporting actresses, although I seriously doubt any of them will get remotely close to a nomination.

Any opinions on the Director race? Will Netflix’s release strategy torpedo Cuaron? Does Chazelle still get in, even with “First Man” tanking? Is Cooper going to actually win?

Cooper will win Best Actor, but not Best Director. I think this could be Cuaron’s win. Netflix could impact him, but I do think the general opinion of Netflix movies are changing—I mean, Scorsese has a Netflix movie coming out next year.

I think Spike Lee will be in the race too but I don’t know how well liked he is in the Academy, which is why I’m predicting Cuaron.

For those of you following the Best Supporting Actor race, I just checked Gold Derby and a good number of people think this could be Chalamet’s year because he’ll get the popular vote, which means Ali and Grant will have some competition.

Perhaps Chalamet will get the "we didn't give it to you last time, so we'll make up for it by giving it to you this time" award.

Tim-o-tay is a tad bit young, is he not? Why not make him wait a bit for an Oscar? It's not like Beautiful Boy is doing boffo box office or got huge rave reviews. It's ok.

I hope Spike Lee gets a best director nod and his film gets one for Best Picture. Also some recognition for The Death of Stalin and Rami Malik as FM.

R343 Typically, male acting winners tend to skew older than the female categories. The youngest BSA winner ever was Timothy Hutton in 1980 at the age of 20. On the Supporting Actress side, Tatum ONeal was 10.

I too thought BB was just ok, but there have been mediocre wins before based on popularity.

Whatever happened to the buzz Topher Grace was getting for BlacKkKlansman? The film and Lee are still getting buzz. You'd think he'd be at least in the Top Ten, especially in Supporting.

Adam Driver has all the buzz for that movie. He got the Spirit Award nomination, the only major one “BlacKKKlansman” earned. Plus, he’s considered the serious actor who does Scorsese and Soderbergh, while Topher Grace, and I think he’s always been underrated, still feels like a sitcom star who never quite made it in movies.

There's nothing in Black Klansman that deserves a nomination. it was perfectly serviceable and nothing more.

Timothee might not even get nominated. His movie was such a disappointment. And if he does, he certainly won’t win.

[quote]Also some recognition for The Death of Stalin

What would you think The Death of Stalin would get nominated for? Steve Buscemi for SA maybe? I thought it was amusing, but not really an award worthy film.

I saw Mary Queen of Scots tonight. Saorsie is really fantastic. She's just an astonishing talent. Robbie is good too but her character just disappears for the middle half of the movie and has far less to do. Oh and somebody mentioned Gemma Chan being in it - she has a nothing role, no character. The movie is surprisingly gay though!

R351 Great to hear! I’m a big fan of Saoirse

Gemma Chan played a white woman, interesting. I wonder what the thought process was behind that. Seems kind of random, but then again, white actors act outside their race too.

Also, Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, Joe Alwyn, has been in The Favourite, Boy Erased, and Mary, Queen of Scots this year. He could be an upcoming talent to watch.

Finally got around to watching Deadpool 2. Would the academy nominate the Celine Dion song from the movie for best song just for shits and giggles?

R352 Also, Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, Joe Alwyn

Also, Taylor Swift’s gay merkin Joe Alwyn

Fixed it

Death Of Stalin could get a screenplay nomination.

How many Best Song nominations will Mary Poppins Returns get?

[quote]Gemma Chan played a white woman, interesting. I wonder what the thought process was behind that.

Everything is being 'Hamiltonized' these days, particularly UK films/TV shows based on history. Two years ago, Sophie Okonedo was cast as Margaret of Anjou in some British miniseries. And now Chan is Bess of Hardwick. It's ridiculous, IMO. Colorblind casting doesn't always work on stage and it's easier to suspend disbelief there. It never works on film, which is more reality-based.

R357 I was actually kind of excited only to be let down. I had no idea Queen Elizabeth was best friends with a Chinese woman, especially back in those days. And then I found out she wasn’t Chinese and it was just a miscast situation.

Renée Zellweger won an Oscar for playing a character that was originally black, which would have not happened today. But surely some people complained

The Mary Poppins Return trailer looks amazing - until Meryl Streep’s stupid face turns up. She should really learn to say no. There is no need for her to be in that film.

R358, Ruby - Renee’s character in Cold Mountain - was not black in the source novel Charles Frazier. I’m not sure what you’re talking about.

OMG. The Front Runner expanded to 807 screens and only had a 3-day gross of $885k. Ouch.

R360 Wasn’t she biracial? Maybe I’m thinking about something else.

The following films have officially moved over into the flop category

Boy Erased

The Front Runner

Widows

And the following will be gone completely from theaters by mid-December

Can You Ever Forgive Me

Suspiria

Beautiful Boy

Wildlife

The jury is still out on Green Book. It did better than expected in its wider bump this week (based on the anemic gross from last week), but it will take a lot to turn it around.

I know it won't happen, but it would be great if this season's crop of "Oscar hopefuls" that have largely turned out to be flops would be a wakeup call to the studios. Stop fucking saving every single "prestige" movie for a December release! Stop assuming that Academy members' memories are that short. If you want to launch an Oscar campaign for the great film that was released in July, then have at it. But it's gotten far too crowded in December for every newly released movie to get its fair share of attention, and as a result most of them are doing poorly at the box office. It would be nice to have adult films available throughout the year.

Is Can You Ever Forgive Me? really a flop though? Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant are on almost everyone’s predictions list for nominations in their respective categories.

I saw Widows last night. Viola does her typical noble shtick but I didn’t find her remotely worthy of a nomination. Elizabeth Debicki turns in the best performance in the film. I can’t believe some people were pushing Daniel Kaluuya for a nod. A totally 2-D character. Competently after bit nowhere approaching the need to be singled out for awards consideration.

I didn’t see the twist or the ending. And what happened to Jacki Weaver’s character? She literally just disappears from the film.

[quote] Is Can You Ever Forgive Me? really a flop though? Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant are on almost everyone’s predictions list for nominations in their respective categories.

What does that have to do with being a flop? No one is going to see it.

CYEFM? looks to be The Sessions all over again. Same studio, similar release date, does less than expected at the box-office and only gets a Supporting nomination because the Lead category is too competitive. But I guess we'll have to wait to see if the last part happens.

R365 I'd imagine Searchlight probably expected $15-20m, if not slightly more. But as pointed out above, ALL of the specialty releases this season have under-performed. The only true success has been Free Solo.

My local art house has four screens and has actually been playing Bohemian Rhapsody because they can't keep any of the current indies for more than one or two weeks. Hopefully, The Favourite turns things around.

[quote]ALL of the specialty releases this season have under-performed. The only true success has been Free Solo.

What are the odds of FREE SOLO getting a documentary nod?

I'm not sure there's so much a pile up at the box office as there is just some mediocre films. Widows especially is a missed opportunity.

THR is describing Green Book as struggling and a disappointment. Only $5.4M on Thanksgiving weekend on just over 1,000 screens...that's not great.

But films like Beautiful Boy, Can You Ever Forgive Me, even Suspiria - are these films really flops? What kind of business were they expected to do anyway? (Sidenote: re-watched the original Suspiria last night for the first time in about 30 years - why does everyone have so much reverence for that? Total nonsense. The new version is completely worthy and a total artistic success.) There aren't really big, commercial films. Wildlife was lucky to get any distribution and by that measure is something of a success - it's a small, independent arthouse film. You can't compare apples and oranges.

Finally saw BR today. Freddy Mercury's story and the music of Queen are undeniably powerful but it was way too "VH1 Behind The Music" for me. As BR was at a 10AM screening, I watched A Star Is Born again afterwards. I don't think BR fares very well by comparison. The concert footage in ASIB is amazing and it's fictional depiction of rock and pop stars is so authentic, it just crackles with live energy. Even before I watched ASIB again, BR looked like a video game by comparison. Rami is very Freddy Mercury-lite; he settles into an engaging tone and delivers a graceful, consistent performance - he doesn't embarrass himself but maybe he should've tried to! It isn't what I would call risk taking, at all. The script completely neuters the character; the person we see on screen bears no resemblance to the real Freddie Mercury. He's not an outsider at all, just some non-threatening mini-me version with straight teeth and smooth skin. Rami could end up with a nomination but has zero chance of actually winning. He could also be snubbed in favour of more worthy candidates. It's going to Bradley Cooper anyway.

ASIB still looks to be the biggest contender with Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, 2x Best Song, Best Cinematography, Best Sound/Editing - all locks. I was thinking today that Andrew Dice Clay might even pull a nomination, a la Joan Cusack in Working Girl. ASIB only gets better with repeated viewings, it really stands up. And BR pales in comparison. Cooper and Gaga stand to go home with multiple Oscars on the night.

I’m on my way to the hospital right now, but just wanted to remind you all to please pray for me. If I make it to February 22 it will be because of all of you.

R369 BB and Suspiria are definite flops. Both their budgets were around 20 to 25 mill each. You don't spend that kind of money without the intention of recouping that amount. To be fair, those types of films realistically wouldn't be expected to make a lot of money, but that's why you keep the budget in line for said type of films. Since they didn't, you have to classify them as flops. They are both going to lose a LOT of money for Amazon. I'm not so sure about CYEFM cause I can't find anything about its budget It's surprising that eveyr Oscar bait pick failed this year except ASIB and The Hate U Give.. It remains to be seen how The Favourite and OTBOS fair..

Isn't MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS Oscar bait?

It feels like it should be but period pieces aren't really near the top of the genre films that I consider Oscar bait. I always feel like those are a somewhat tougher sell,

It's not just a period film; it's a biopic and those are always considered Oscar bait.

What was the reception like for "The Hate U Give"? Is it really being touted as an Oscar favorite? Has anyone here seen it?

[quote]Seems kind of random, but then again, white actors act outside their race too.

Not recently. No way. It's stupid to hire people of the wrong race to play historical figures. Even when they aren't playing real people, it's stupid to pretend that places like colonial America had tons of free blacks and latinos running around in the upper echelons of society. Why not tell the real stories instead so maybe some Americans might learn some actual history.

And, these movies aren't all flops. There is a difference between a flop and small movie.

R375 It’s not going to get acting nods, but it could for best adapted screenplay

Probably the most recent example one could cite of a white actor playing a person of color was last year when Joseph Fiennes played Michael Jackson, though I don't recall if it was particularly well-received or not.

Are you kidding r378 not well-received? They cancelled the project after the uproar re his casting.

And, you really can't look more white than Michael Jackson. It would almost have seemed weird for a black person who looked black to play him at any point in the last 25 years of his life.

Scarlett Johansson also caused controversy by playing a Japanese cyborg. And then she got cast as a transgender character and people lost their shit. It’s become a meme now that Scarlett will only take roles played by people of color

Let’s not forget Emma Stone as a mixed race Hawaiian.

Stone was supposed to be a Eurasian, who can look Caucasian or Asian or a mix. So I don't see the problem there. If a full Asian were playing the part, no one would say anything. (The same goes for The Engineer in MISS SAIGON, who is also Eurasian.)

I liked Clay, but I don’t think he has a shot at a nomination. Honestly, Sam Elliott’s role isn’t very big as it is, and I doubt any movie could get two smaller performances in the same category anymore.

I’m sure “A Star is Born” will do well overall, but I’m not sure it’s a lock for Cinematography. But it should also get Screenplay, despite being a musical with so many writers, since that category looks incredibly weak. Gold Derby has “BlacKKKlansman” in the lead for that category, and that just doesn’t seem to make much sense. (Barry Jenkins, despite winning the category two years ago, seems far more likely).

If "Mary Poppins Returns," which looks great in previews, delivers on its promise, I think it will present the biggest challenges to ASIB come awards season, particularly in the technical categories. I'm not even sure the Academy could resist the opportunity to reward Blunt given (a) she's well-regarded in Hollywood and (b) the urge to make her an Oscar winner for the same role Julie Andrews won for many years prior might prove impossible to resist.

I can't imagine Cooper won't win Director, however, given how much the Academy loves to reward actors who get behind the camera and actually manage to make a good film (Redford, Eastwood, Costner, and Gibson being previous examples). It would also be the perfect way to recognize his work and give the Best Actor award to someone else.

BCoop is a long shot for Director because it's his first effort, ever. They're not going to give him the statue over people like Cuaron, Garry Marshall and Spike Lee, for his first directorial work -ever-, I don't care if he did another Citizen Kane. That's why I feel he has Best Actor in the bag.

Now if Vice does very good box office and Bale's performance is as mind-blowing as initial reports state, it could come down to the wire. If they deny Cooper Director -and- Actor, look for ASIB to probably get Best Picture and Sam Elliot to be greatly strengthened in Supporting. It could help Gaga's cause.

The current trend is to spread the awards out among the leaderboard, as much as possible. If ASIB stays frontrunner for Best Pic, that strengthens Blunt for Actress - the traditional Academy likes Gaga but I guarantee are loathe to award her for one of her first lead performances, and over Glenn. Blunt would be their out, and a perfect and a way to award MPR.

Spike Lee is not winning anything. They already gave him an honorary award that was undeserved.

[quote]Now if Vice does very good box office and Bale's performance is as mind-blowing as initial reports state, it could come down to the wire.

True, but this situation could also potentially open the door for a huge upset -- i.e., a third option sneaking in should Cooper and Bale cancel each other out. The question is, who would that third person be??

Gosling or maybe Redford, r388. Maybe Viggo, if Green Book can make some money and the furor over his n-word statement dies down (which it should, by January).

I could see Gosling sneaking in there.

If Bale delivers, I could see the Academy wanting to take this opportunity to make him a two-time winner, especially since his first one was for supporting. But as others have pointed out, I think what could hurt him potentially -- aside from Cooper being his spoiler -- is the fact Gary Oldman won for a similar performance just last year. For some voters, it would probably seem too much like rewarding the same performance two years in a row.

Call me crazy but I think Sam Elliot is a lock. Who could resist this last opportunity to reward one of our greatest actors and playwrights in his final performance?

There is nothing remotely award worthy about Sam Elliot as much as I like him. The role is not very significant and poorly poorly written with the most cliche of lines to speak. I was excited he was a contender until I actually saw the film.

are you confusing Sam Elliot with the late Sam Shepard? I don't believe Elliot is known as a playwright. He is however a very worthy acting candidate, and I'd love to see him win.

What you said at r389 re Oldman last year is true and does dim Bale's chances a bit. Also Bale is only 44 years old, relatively young to get a 2nd Oscar. He's got decades of great performances ahead of him; he seems to moving into a peak De Niro phase now, all the method work is coalescing into a great overall acting style that he'll carry forward. I could see him with three or four Oscars actually, by the end.

r389 should be r390 in post above.

[quote]Bale's performance is as mind-blowing as initial reports

I’ve only read one review of Vice - it was either in Variety or The Reporter - Hit it was very meh, for both the film and Bale.

Oh, you're right, R392 -- I'm confusing Sam Elliot with Sam Shepard. My bad. Thanks for catching that.

[quote]If they deny Cooper Director -and- Actor, look for ASIB to probably get Best Picture and Sam Elliot to be greatly strengthened in Supporting. It could help Gaga's cause.

Assuming you mean the actual prize and not just the nomination (since there is no way Cooper will be denied at least the nominations in both categories), what you said makes no sense. No one will know which movies are denied or otherwise when they vote. If Cooper were to lose in both categories, it wouldn't have any affect on how anyone voted for the other awards at the same time. No one else will benefit from it.

I meant actual prize upthread, not noms.

The ongoing trend at Ampas is to spread the awards around to the frontrunners, as much as possible. That's gone on a while now, the days of a big major film sweeping a majority of awards or even a majority of its noms was a while ago (not saying it won't return in the future). Ampas members DO talk amongst themselves quite a bit during voting season, and believe it or not there is always rumor of 'horse-trading' that goes on in terms of the voting. The big name Hwood players work the phones quite a bit for their fave during the season, you'd be surprised.

That doesn't guarantee there are no surprises or upsets sure. But the surprise aspect left the Oscars a while ago; many of the winners are assumed by the time Feb/March roll around, and 9 times out of 10 its the assumed nominee.

The problem for Bale is going to be getting voters to actually watch his film. You can’t discount the complete lack of interest in The Front Runner and pretend that somehow Dick Cheney - yeah, Dick Cheney - is some marquee headliner. Not in this political climate. And a film that claims liberals somehow bear responsibility for the fucked up war in Iraq? Not as I remember it. Bale may get his nod but it doesn’t mean voters will watch the actual movie.

ASIB will sweep. It’s done great box office without ever being the No. 1 film - because of word of mouth and repeat viewings. People have actually engaged with the film. Worldwide box office just reached $350M - just over 10x its actual cost. Within the next 5 months, it will cross at least $500M worldwide - it still has a lot to gain from nominations and awards.

[quote]BCoop is a long shot for Director because it's his first effort, ever. They're not going to give him the statue over people like Cuaron, Garry Marshall and Spike Lee, for his first directorial work -ever-, I don't care if he did another Citizen Kane. That's why I feel he has Best Actor in the bag.

Mel Gibson (BRAVEHEART) and Kevin Costner (DANCES WITH WOLVES) both won Best Director for their very first films. Like Cooper, they not only directed themselves but also co-produced their films. Gibson didn't get a Best Actor nod, but Costner did and he lost. In the end, both Gibson and Costner won two Academy Awards apiece for producing and directing their respective first movies.

If the Academy didn't want to give Sam Elliott a nod for The Hero last year in a very weak Best Actor lineup, they aren't going to give him an actual award for doing nothing in ASIB.

Exactly the opposite, R400. The Academy would’ve happily given Sam Elliott a nomination, if only The Hero had performed. Now he’s part of an awards season juggernaut, he’ll get the nomination. All of his scenes in ASIB are very powerful. And with Green Book flailing there’s room for Dice Clay.

Viggo must feel like an idiot since you know all involved are blaming him for Green Book’s demise.

R402 talk about faux outrage! But I doubt anyone involved with the film blames him for it flopping. It was going to be a hard movie to sell, anyway.

R401 his scenes are laughable with the most stilted dialogue. It's beyond forced that I think you have stars in your eyes about this movie. He may get nominated because he's well liked and others have gotten in for worse. But he's not even the best supporting actor in that movie. I also found it odd they waited several scenes into the character to tell us it was his brother. Like it was some great plot secret or something which it wasn't. I thought he was poorly written as well.

[quote] All of his scenes in ASIB are very powerful. And with Green Book flailing there’s room for Dice Clay.

No they weren't. They could have been played by anyone. And Dice was ridiculously nothing.

Go predict the MTV Video Awards. This is clearly too much for you.

[quote]ASIB will sweep. It’s done great box office without ever being the No. 1 film - because of word of mouth and repeat viewings. People have actually engaged with the film. Worldwide box office just reached $350M - just over 10x its actual cost. Within the next 5 months, it will cross at least $500M worldwide - it still has a lot to gain from nominations and awards.

R398, I'm not disagreeing with you, but the criteria you lay out as the basis for ASIB sweeping the awards could just as easily be applied to Black Panther -- a film that was a megahit thanks to word of mouth and plenty of repeat business (unlike ASIB, I believe it did make it to #1), and though it didn't particularly float my boat, people appeared to really love it. Granted, it's not likely to take any acting categories like ASIB, but everything else, including Best Picture, could be up for grabs if the Academy wants to reward a crowd-pleaser (Panther, ASIB) over a more serious film (Roma, First Man, Beale Street, BlacKKKlansman). Think the year of The Lord of the Rings.

[quote]The problem for Bale is going to be getting voters to actually watch his film. You can’t discount the complete lack of interest in The Front Runner and pretend that somehow Dick Cheney - yeah, Dick Cheney - is some marquee headliner. Not in this political climate.

I totally agree with this.

R400, “The Hero” was a mediocre movie that no almost no one saw. Elliott was the best part about it, but his performance never redeemed everything else about it. (Laura Prepon, really?)

And any discussion of Andrew Dice Clay is just crazy talk. The best recognition he can expect from the Academy is an invitation to join next June.

R406, “The Front Runner” is about a presidential candidate who flamed out in the primaries before Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone and Brie Larson were born, directed by a guy who left the Oscar conversation nearly a decade ago. “Vice” is about a figure of actual historical consequence whose actions have direct consequences today, directed by the guy whose last movie was a top contender for Best Picture just three years ago. There’s an obvious difference.

Well, at least I’m going out on a limb! :) Fuck you, with your MTV Awards, mate.

There is no precedent that predicts success for Vice but plenty to suggest it’ll have a tepid b.o. performance. The Big Short wasn’t about politics.

Why is Viggo blamed for GB flopping?

R409 at a Q&A while promoting the film, he said "nigger" Instead of "the N-word" which pissed off a lot SJWs. Context is everything, people. It's not like Viggo used the word in anger and hatred toward people of color; he was merely describing the time and place of the film (1960s Deep South) and how freely the term was used then. But folks who think in black-and-white terms (forgive the pun) can't see the difference and were ready to crucify him.

[quote] “The Hero” was a mediocre movie that no almost no one saw. Elliott was the best part about it, but his performance never redeemed everything else about it. (Laura Prepon, really?)

I didn't say the film was any good (I shut it off about 40 minutes or so in) but Elliott was being touted last year early on for a performance that was head and shoulders above the nothing he does in ASIB. So if the Academy was feeling sentimental, they had a great opportunity to put him in a category that was so anemic, it included Daniel Kaluuya and Denzel Washington for a movie no one saw.

I thought Elliott was great in ASIB and his scenes (few as they were) were standouts. Who is this frothing poster saying that he does “nothing” in the film. Watch it again, hon. He does and it’s very affecting.

And this category is notorious for honoring vets.

Who's this frothing poster insisting Elliott is doing Oscar worthy work in little more than a cameo?

Sweetheart, face it. You just have low standards.

Remember when folks predicted Sam Elliott would be nominated for "Lifeguard"? Those were the days when hope was eternal for indies.

I don't find anything about ASIB, including Elliott, award worthy, R413, but his turn is the epitome of a supporting performance. You seems to be so used to leading performances being fraudly defined as supporting, you can't recognize a true one.

I saw Lifeguard at the drive in when I was like 12 years old and thought “GIVE THAT MAN AN OSCAR!” Gawd, he was so sexy.

Gaga, Bradley and Sam will get noms.

And ADC.

No. No ADC.

Maybe ADC.

I would love it if Harry Belafonte received a nod for his cameo in BLACKKKLANSMAN. He was superb. His performance reminded me of another unforgettable cameo that should have received awards attention: Lynn Redgrave’s heartbreaking monologue in KINSEY

R421 you're easily impressed. An Oscar for a cameo? And I thought Judi Dench winning for 8-minutes of screen time was bad enough.

Excuse me, cunt at R422. I am not “easily impressed.” Belafonte delivered perhaps the most powerful scene in that film and there’a Nothing wrong with me citing it here.

If you knew anything about Oscar history, you’d know that cameos have been nominated for and even won Oscars in the past. Do yourself a favor and look up Beatrice Straight in NETWORK, Hermione Baddeley in ROOM AT THE TOP (a 2 minute and 33 second performance), William Hurt in A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE, Ned Beatty in NETWORK, etc.

You sound like a philistine and a consummate asshole.

Well, R421, as long as you're going there, I would love to see a nomination for Corey Hawkins, who delivered that fiery speech in the center of the film. He was fucking phenomenal in that scene. I don't know if anyone has ever been nominated for a single speech before, but if so, Hawkins should definitely be the next one to make that distinguished list. (He also received a Tony nomination last season for his performance in the revival of "Six Degrees of Separation" on Broadway.)

Believe me, I've seen some 2-minute performances way more deserving of a win than some full-length performances that weren't even worthy of a nomination.

Who did Corey Hawkins play in the film?

Harry did do a lovely job in Black Klansman, and yes, if it came down to him and either of the two supporting roles in ASIB, Harry was much more impressive, but my guess is the Academy will ignore him because it feels like Harry Belafonte sitting down to tell some history, not Harry Belafonte playing an actual character.

Another actor who was nominated for a tiny, one scene performance- Geraldine Page in The Pope of Greenwich Village. I thought she should have won.

[quote] I thought Judi Dench winning for 8-minutes of screen time was bad enough.

Bitch needed two more minutes than I did to grab that gold. Amateur.

More:

Ethel Barrymore in THE PARADINE CASE, Sylvia Sidney in DEAD END, Jane Alexander in ALL THE PRESIDENT’S MEN, Sylvia Miles in MIDNIGHT COWBOY, Carolyn Jones in THE BACHELOR PARTY, Ruby Dee in AMERICAN GANGSTER, Basil Rathbone in ROMEO & JULIET, John Lithgow in TERMS OF ENDEARMENT, Maximillian Schell in JULIA, Charles Durning in THE BEST LITYLE WHOREHOUSE IN TEXAS, Marjorie Rambeau In TORCH SONG, Sylvia Miles in FAREWELL, MY LOVELY.

R428 I wouldn't call those cameos, just small supporting roles. A cameo is a brief appearance by a well-known actor; usually one scene.

Vanessa Redgrave in FOXCATCHER was a cameo. She had, like, two 10-second scenes. I remember people were predicting her to get a Supporting nod, until the movie opened and it turns out she really didn't do much of anything, except appear old and haggard in a wheelchair.

True, R429. It’s a mix of one-sceners and cameos.

Not to be picky r399, but Gibson directed The Man Without a Face a few years before Braveheart.

Costner and Gibson both won their Oscars 25+ years ago. The Academy makeup was different as was their voting style. The chance of Cooper winning BD on his first effort is fairly slim today.

But if not Cooper, who wins? Cuaron for a black and white foreign language Netflix film? One of those strikes might be something a movie could overcome, but not all three.

I think Cooper pretty much gets it as part of his movie’s sweep. There’s really no obvious contender to beat him, so provided he doesn’t get Afflecked out of a nomination, he’ll win.

I doubt he'd win, I'm sort of expecting Spike Lee to get his first nomination. Probably not enough support for the film to carry him to a win, though.

I know things will probably just fall into place in Director and we get a field like last year (four of the five everyone expected, one curveball that makes total sense in retrospect), but right now it feels like a year where the Directors Branch goes nuts and throws in a random choice like Benh Zeitlin or Bennett Miller for “Foxcatcher.”

Again, some tony film can come out and pull a "King's Speech" over ASIB -- including the director spot that robbed Fincher in 2010. It's a guess at this point but maybe the "Lobster" guy if "The Favourite" has enough praise.

Don't underestimate the academy's love for Mexican directors.

Especially in this political climate.

I don’t think the wins by Cuaron, Inarritu and Del Toro in such a short period were indicative of anything larger, especially since none of their films were particularly Mexican. It’s probably more like how every Supporting Actress had the initials MS four years in a row starting in the late seventies, just a strange coincidence.

Toni Collette won Best Actress at the Gotham Awards tonight.

She WILL be nominated for an Oscar, bitches.

Do not disregard the possibility of Rob Marshall getting a nomination and possible win for Best Director. Mary Poppins Returns is going to be a smash hit and will likely be well received critically as well. It will be the only movie that can realistically compete with ASIB for Best Picture. Marshall was previously nominated for Chicago, a movie that won Best Picture but lost Best Director (to Roman Polanski for The Pianist), so this could be his redemption year for directing another hit musical.

Mary Poppins isn't getting anything except some music-based nominations. It's even going to lose the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical to ASIB. And neither will win Best Picture.

[quote]It's even going to lose the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical to ASIB.

That will be a neat trick, given that Warner Brothers is submitting ASIB in the drama category for the Golden Globes.

Well, then ASIB won't win that one, either.

Collette’s win at the Gotham’s is nice but though it’s positioned as a pre-cursor, it’s really an outlier. There is no overlap with the Academy and the awards are voted on by a handful of people on different committees. It doesn’t guarantee anything. Heteditary’s box office would’ve had to equal Get Out’s to ensure Oscar noms.

I think the top three men will be Bradley Cooper, Viggo Mortensen and Christian Bale. I don't think Gosling has a shot at all. Neither does Hugh Jackman. Raimi Malek might squeak in because so any people love Queen. But I honestly believe the last two spots out of five are up for grabs.

I disagree about Mortensen. He’s on very shaky ground. Green Book isn’t delivering.

R446, I'm pretty sure Green Book was never expected to be a box office hit. I don't think First Man lit any fires either. I'm going to stick with my prediction that he will be in the top three. Now, maybe I'm overlooking someone who's not on the radar yet. I have no idea which films are coming out in December and January.

[quote]Mary Poppins isn't getting anything except some music-based nominations.

My, such a strong opinion from someone who hasn't seen the film, hasn't seen the reactions it's getting at screenings, and hasn't read any reviews because there aren't any yet.

You know nothing, dear, and don't try to pretend you do. Mary Poppins Returns might easily come in with 9 - 10 nominations.

r428, Sylvia Sidney does not belong in that group - she did not get a nomination for Dead End (all the others are Oscar nominees for those roles). Her only Oscar nomination was years later as Joanne Woodward's mother in Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams.

National Board of Review selections to be announced today, November 27!

It's the NBR, so don't be shocked by some head-scratching recognition of whatever mediocrity Clint Eastwood put out this year. Fortunately, "The 15:17 to Paris" might have been too awful, even for them.

They're such an impossible group to predict. They almost never pick the eventual winner, but sometimes they go for a hip selection like "Mad Max: Fury Road," and sometimes they go full geriatric like "The Post" last year.

I actually think ASIB lobbied to be put in Drama instead of Comedy/Musical specifically because they thought they'd be beaten by Mary Poppins Returns, and the fact that the voters love Gaga so much that a win as Best Actress in a Drama would solidify her win at the Oscars.

And yeah, stop trying to make Toni Colette happen.

R449, that’s my bad. I got her mixed up with Claire Trevor who received a nomination for DEAD END.

R451, Eastwood has THE MULE this year (producer, star, and director). Also features a supporting performance by Bradley Cooper who could easily be double-nominated in acting this year.

With the “sure-things” falling one by one by the wayside (the boring Gosling in FIRST MAN, Viggo’s n-word baggage for GREEN BOOK), I could easily see Eastwood sneaking in a la MILLION DOLLAR BABY. And then you’d really need to start looking at him as a spoiler winner (he’s never won for acting).

I think Eastwood's reputation as a Republican (talking to the empty chair in 2012!) probably hurts his chances to win another Oscar. Plus, the guy has four already, has never been considered to be that good of an actor, and didn't even make it in for "Gran Torino" when that film was an actual hit.

I know "A Star is Born" was submitted as a Drama at the Globes, but I don't think the Globes have to accept that placement. I'm pretty sure they rejected Vikander and Mara when they were submitted as Supporting a few years back (while accepting "The Martian" as a Comedy, strangely). Any word on whether the Globes have made a decision on the movie's placement?

I don't think anyone thinks that Clint Eastwood needs an Oscar for acting.

Cooper and Gaga have already said they'll perform The Shallow at the Oscars, Gaga will obviously perform another song from the film. The popularity of ASIB (and other contenders, like Black Panther) ensures the ratings will be higher than previous years. I think anyone who doesn't like ASIB should stay home on Oscar night because it's going to be their night. All night.

Posters keep saying Cooper is a first time director and likely won't win but he's made an impressive debut and, as important, he has earned the respect of key players in Hollywood for his hard work an dedication - as in DeNiro and Eastwood, among others.

The song is just called “Shallow.” No “THE” in front.

Not to mention, Cooper is already a four-time Oscar nominee (3 for acting, 1 for producing) with a string of box office hits. All of that achieved this decade. Furthermore, he's at the perfect age (40s) when the Academy begins awarding actors. He has too much goodwill this year and then some.

NBR is in

Looking at last year's NBR awards, none of top winners earned Oscars, and Tom Hanks wasn't even nominated. The only winner NBR predicted was Animated Feature, and they didn't even put "The Shape of Water" in their top ten. The year before they got Casey Affleck right, but Amy Adams didn't get a nomination, and the year before that they only chose one eventual Oscar winner for acting (Brie Larson).

So there might be one winner in the bunch, but there might be a performance that's snubbed altogether.

NBR and NYFCC and LAFCA (the two big critics awards) don't often correspond with the Academy. The precursors to watch are SAG, Golden Globe, and Oscars. Those don't begin until January though the nominations are announced in December. So in two weeks we'll have a better inkling of what to expect come Oscar.

Yay. Sam Elliott won for Best Mustache Combing.

So NBR gave Best Actress to Lady Caca. That almost assures that she won't win the Oscar, as they seldom get that right.

Glenn's sweep is going so well!

M you only have 2 of those NBRs Best Actress. They are obviously a disgrace!

They have correctly Best Actress 23/74 times.

Actually, if the Academy wants to honor both of this year's two most popular films, then let Cooper win actor, Gaga actress, and give the directing award to Ryan Coogler for Black Panther. It would also be a good way of honoring Coogler's prior work on films such as Fruitvale Station and Creed. He's a talented young director and deserves the award far more than Cooper does.

R466 because he's black? Cooper is a multiple Oscar nominee with a string of box office hits dating back ten years. He has also produced a Best Picture nominee. It stands to reason it is Cooper who deserves the award more than Coogler, who has zero nods and only two recent hits.

Bradley Cooper and Christian Bale Lead Top Heavy Actor Race:

Three out of four main actors from American Hustle will all be in contention this year for an Oscar.

Sorry, Jennifer.

R468 Bradley, a top? Ha!

After seeing “Mary Poppins Returns,” and I’m not sure of its Oscar chances beyond the techs, but I’ve always been a huge skeptic of it anyway. Blunt is a lot of fun, but it feels like she’s almost a supporting character, especially toward the end. “A Cover is not the Book” was easily my favorite song, and even though I was middling on LMM, he and Blunt were great in it. Streep doesn’t have a shot, and everything about her performance plays into what her detractors say about Meryl right now.

R471 = joint effort by Julie Andrews and Emma Thompson

R465, I have 3 Oscars, sweetie. BTW, Glenn was nominated for Gotham Awards as well and it went to another actress too.

R473 is M.

[quote]The precursors to watch are SAG, Golden Globe, and Oscars

That's the first time someone has advised watching the Oscars as a precursor. Precursor to what, exactly? It's all done when the Oscars are over.

Here's a schedule of when the awards/nominations are announced. The NYFCC is tomorrow, but the LAFCA isn't until December 9, after the Golden Globes nominations are announced.

I think the only potentially major film that didn't get screened in time for the NYFCC is Clint Eastwood's "The Mule."

No R474 really? We thought it was Daniel Day Lewis!

Glenn should stand a decent chance at NYFCC tomorrow as she is respected in those circles but their choices have been increasingly left field for a while now so it's not a sure thing!

E475 LOL! Obviously, I meant SAG, Golden Globes, and BAFTA.

2017 NYFCC - Best Actor Timothée Chalamet, Best Actress Saoirse Ronan (neither won Oscar). 2016 NYFCC - Best Actor Casey Affleck, Best Actress Isabelle Huppert (Affleck won Oscar, Huppert didn't). 2015 NYFCC - Best Actor Michael Keaton, Best Actress Saoirse Ronan (neither won Oscar).

So why exactly NYFCC can help Glenn somehow to her road to Oscars?

R479 that's why SAG, Golden Globes, and BAFTA are the only precursors that matter. Actors who win two of those or all three usually go on to win the Oscar.

New York loves Saoirse

She's fro the Bronx, after all.

New York loves Collette, too. She definitely has a shot at NYFCC

I think NYFCC might go for Joanna Kulig.

I love Kulig in Cold War. I guess it’s ppssible she can pull out a win somewhere.

But if there's one thing that New York filmgoers DON'T love, it's Glenn.

Regina Hall won the NYFCC for Best Actress. Interesting.

Regina as a double nominee would be a game changer.

No, R488, Regina Hall won for one film and Regina KING won for another.

Ah, sorry.

I don’t see them nominating Hall.

Gaga's getting a nom. So is Bradley. They want win. But Madonna will lose her mind. And that's why it's so cool.

WON'T!!!

I hadn't even heard of the Regina Hall film before. Awesome.

It was a day and date release, barely played any screens. Got decent if unspectacular reviews.

SUPPORT THE GIRLS is really lovely, I was thrilled to see it get some notice.

First Toni, then Gaga, and now Regina?

At this rate, will Glenn even be able to beat the cast of "Book Club"?

Critics' Debate: The Great Screen Performances of 2018:

Detroit Film Critics announced their nominations. Glenn Close wasn't even nominated.

Oh, well, if Detroit says so...

You can't blame G for that. Her little movie probably never made it to the hinterlands. What is it they call it, a limited release? Such an odd concept.

I agree, a very odd concept, M. If one is doing a film with limited appeal to anyone, go ahead and bomb big, I always say. "Hope Springs" and "Ricky and the Flash," for example.

Hope Springs made €115million from a relatively small budget. Ricki made over €45million from an €18million budget.

They both bombed big in the reviews, though. Ricki and the Flash (which was pure trash) more so than "Hope Springs," although not many liked that one either. Streep is such an automatic Oscar nominee now that when she doesn't score a nomination, there's usually a good reason.

R503 they didn't bomb in reviews either. Hope Springs is 75% on RT and the main criticism was it was overlong.

Ricki is 64%. While not great it certainly isn't trash. It's problem was a weak screenplay. More time should have been spent exllori g her relationship with a 3 kinds and less on the singing.

Shite that Streep has been in includes "The Giver", "The House of the Spirits", "Before and After", "Lions for Lambs" and "Evening". All critical and box office flops.

*exploring her relationship with all 3 kids. Sorry!

So Timothee is not going to get nominated?

Was the Manchurian Candidate a flop? Because that was a total piece of shit. It was the first time I really remember being embarrassed by a Streep performance. Hambone on rye.

R507, yes it was.

Rotten Tomatoes actually has seventeen "rottens" for Streep, mostly in the latter part of her career, and including "The Iron Lady."

Yet I have 3 Oscars, darlings!

Death Becomes Her is rotten! WTF?

2007 is Streep's annus horribilis. 4 rotten movies that flopped. No wonder she said yes to Mamma Mia! It was a guaranteed hit.

I have now seen Support The Girls. It's such a low-budget underdog of a film, it would be churlish to smite NYFCC for drawing attention to it. It reveals some charms over its short running time - primarily the performance of Regina Hall. It's about a Hooters-style independent local sports bar and the way her character protects and advocates for her employees. It's a slice about working class American women. Just watching her walk around in her worn out, black work shoes and nondescript work clothes engenders a fair amount of empathy probably from anyone who has ever worked in such a restaurant. There was a very subtle humour and some good supporting performances. But it is real micro-budget independent filmmaking and unlikely to receive much attention beyond this accolade, though a GG and/or a SAG nomination wouldn't surprise, it's not incredibly likely primarily because there's no campaign behind it.

Stop discussing M. This is MY year, god damn it. Eyes on ME!!!!

Oh and Regina Hall was the first black actress to ever win Best Actress from the NYFCC in their 83-year history.

G do you really want us to start talking about all your rotten films?

Meryl and I almost did a movie together once... but, Glenn and I did MAXIE, so there’s that. No comment.

Someone needs to dust off “Somethong About Amelia” a TV movie from 1983 in which Glenn’s husband (Ted Danson) is fucking their teenage daughter, Amelia. She is actually excellent in it.

*Something

(Although, Glenn in a movie called “Some Thong” could be quite interesting.)

Is Maxxie one of the worst movies Glenn did?

“House Of The Spirits” is the worst film anyone in that cast has ever done...except for maybe the guy who got Chloe Sevigny to suck his cock on film.

I’m watching “Maxie” right now on YouTube. I’m high right now so I’m finding it quite hilarious. Red/auburn is not a good look for Glenn.

Mandy Patinkin looks cute as fuck in Maxie. He and Glenn are just not believable as couple at all.

R521 what time is it there? Where are you in the world to be high at this time!

R523, D.C. I decided to just get started early today. All I have to do is attend a Christmas party later.

R524 You aren't Trump, are you?

Ha, nope! I’m just down the street from him though.

Glenn Close can only pronounce it as Something About AMAYlia.

Lol R527

Theron was really good in Tully. The Academy loves her. That would be a surprise nom.

Good Christ, what a heinous slice of shit is Vox Lux. Who thought this should be a movie, let alone Oscar fare??

r529 The academy loves her so much that she has a grand total of two nominations in her two decade career.

What's the big tragedy in her life in Vox Luxe, r530? A school shooting?

[quote]This is MY year, god damn it.

And you've kicked it off in grand style, losing out on all three of the first "bellwether" awards!

Yes. (And for those who yell "spoiler alert" it happens in the first five minutes.)

R531, that's a lot more than others have. And you do realize she actually has an Oscar, right? They like her as a person, too. That's more than half the game when it comes to getting a nomination. A lot of her movies are just not up to par but when she's in a good movie, she gets a nom.

M, I'm hearing rumors that you've finally agreed to film the sequel to Still of the Night. Good for you!

So do we have Gaga or not?

Watched The Rider tonight. What a fantastic film, but it's also a bizarre experience watching these people play versions of themselves. I was very impressed with Brady Jandreau's performance. (Can't say the same for his father, and whoever dubbed his sister's voice should get a Razzie).

Anyone else see it?

Theron is so overrated

Theron is a known bitch. But me being a gold star gay? Walked past and almost tripped at how hot she was.

R35 what the fuck are you rambling about? Theron was amazing in Young Adult in 2011 and didn't get a nomination. They chose Rooney Mara for her dreary Lisbeth Salander.

Theron could also have got nods for In The Valley of Elah and Mad Max, both of which The Academy nominated in other categories. Face it, she is not "loved by the academy"!

Who is more beloved by Academy-the person who has two nominations and already won Oscar or person who has 6 nominations but never won Oscar?

R542 obviously, the person with the most nods. When a person wins, it's sometimes luck. It was a pretty weak category when Theron won: Keshia Castle-Hughes (a 14-year-old), Diane Keaton (in a rom-com), and Samantha Morton (IN AMERICA) and Naomi Watts (21 GRAMS) who didn't get much traction for their small movies.

Plus, Theron's character checked off all the Academy boxes: biopic, uglied up, prostitute, put-upon woman, lesbian, mental disorder

Theron blew away the competition. Keaton was great in SGG but her nomination was mainly for her blink and you’ll miss it nude scene.

R54 thus, she didn't have much competition and it was a weak category.

R543 Samantha Morton or Diane Keaton should have won but for each of the them the nomination was the award.

I’m still traumatized by Streep’s nude scene in Still of the Night.

The Rider is one of my top 10 films of the year

Theron didn't even make my cut in 2003. Monster was a slog of a movie and Theron should have given her Oscar to her fake choppers. It was a performance that just screamed INDICATING! Really amateurish work. Before Monster, Theron was considered a joke and horrible actress. I'm not really sure how the narrative got changed by THAT performance, but the poster upthread is correct- The Academy LOVES bells and whistles. That being said, the Oscar did allow Theron to become more comfortable and less self conscious in front of the camera and she has evolved into a good (not great) actress who has become much more watchable.

For my money, Best Actress should have gone to a Russian actress named Oksana Akinshina, who played the title character in Lilya-4-Ever, an incredibly bleak and depressing film by Lukas Moodysson about a teenaged girl who is kidnapped, exported to another country and forced to be a prostitute. Really hard watch, but an incredible film and two magnificent performances by Oksana and the young boy who befriends her (I think his name was Atom Bogucharsky (sp?)) Oksana won several international awards for Best Actress that year. But of course, that was never going to happen with the Academy.

Theron had some nice quiet moments that I much preferred to the angst (same way I felt about Halle Berry in her Oscar film, as well) -- but she did something that drove me nuts throughout. When she'd throw her head back to adjust her hair. Yes, the real Warnos did this on camera -- but only because she was handcuffed and couldn't fix it otherwise. Not just out of habit.

By the way, I love Franco's small moments in "Disaster Artist" and HATE when he gets loud and stupid. I think even without the MeToo nonsense, he wouldn't have been nominated after all.

The Favourite swept the British Independent Film Awards with Olivia Colman and Rachel Weisz winning Best Lead and Supporting. Colman is shaping up to be the one to beat.

Yeah, I'm sure the British Indie Awards will have any sway on the Oscars. Their American counterpart (Spirit) usually don't.

Diane Keaton was fucking awful in Somethings Gotta Give. Playing herself, as always. The same as Jack.

Loved Diane Keaton in Something's Gotta Give. Hated the movie "Monster," and although I thought Theron was excellent, the movie was garbage. (And Christina Ricci gave a career-worst performance).

[quote]Oksana won several international awards for Best Actress that year. But of course, that was never going to happen with the Academy.

Uh ... it didn't happen with any major awards at all. She won three, the Chlotrudis Award, the Gijón International Film Festival, and the Guldbagge Award. Wow, the prestige!

The movie was painful, I made it only through the first hour or so.

R554 I remember at the time Ricci's name being thrown around as a possible candidate for Supporting Actress. I was, like, how? She was awful! Her crying scenes seemed very forced. That said, I would have nominated her for Wednesday Addams way back when. That was a role she was born to play, and she played it beautifully.

Celine Dion getting a nod for her Deadpool song. Then, (not to steal Gaga's thunder) she performs at the Oscar's with Ryan Reynolds dancing in spandex behind her.

I'd rather she performs at the Oscars with Ryan Reynolds dancing in a jockstrap behind her, r557.

I couldn't name a single winner from last year (or the year before, for that matter).

Just saw Ben is Back. Hedges and Julia are amazing. Juila will be nominated. So good

If they can nominate Julie, they will nominate Julia.

[quote] Uh ... it didn't happen with any major awards at all. She won three, the Chlotrudis Award, the Gijón International Film Festival, and the Guldbagge Award. Wow, the prestige!

Uh... I didn't say she won any major awards, did I. I also said it would never have happened for the Oscars. I don't know who the fuck you're arguing with, but you suck at it.

You said she was your pick for Best Actress that year, that she won “several” international awards, and you implied the Oscar nom didn’t happen because they don’t acknowledge such gritty performances. But it wasn’t just Oscar. No one acknowledged her performance save for the three no-name awards she won in Easten Europe.

I said she was my pick because I thought it was the best female performance of the year, not because I thought she had a chance to win. I said she won several international awards because she did. And I implied no such thing. My statement, since you're so hell bent on making the same point I already made, was that she would have had no chance to win an Oscar for the role because the film wasn't known enough (it barely got a release here) and no one was going to champion someone playing an underage white slave sex worker. I didn't feel the need to put all that in there since I wasn't actually arguing that the Academy should have nominated her or that there was any way it could have happened.

You really can't fucking read. You should just keep your mouth shut.

R560, what about Lucas Hedges? It would be kind of amazing if he became the youngest man to get two acting Oscar nominations (Mickey Rooney holds that record, and both of his were in lead!). Chalamet would also beat Rooney, but that’s looking less likely every day.

After all this discussion of “Lilya 4-Ever,” I’ve committed to finally watching it. If I don’t like it, DL will never know because I would not want to cross R564. (In part because I suspect he’d be right).

hahahaha. You can not like it, R566. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't. It's not really a film to "like." I remember a friend and I went to see it at the New Beverly in mid-2004 on a double bill. Both of us had wanted to see it very much, being Moodysson fans. She was just traumatized by it. Understood it was a powerful film, but was not happy to have sat through it. I like bleak and dark films, so I was very much immersed in it and it packed a wallop, but I understood where she was coming from. A couple years back I bought a R2 Moodysson box set of DVDs that includes Lilya, but I've yet to watch it again. Someday.

Just watched Green Book. It's fine, but it's not Best Picture material. We've seen this feel good race relations thing before and done better (though it does usually seem they are all the same movie). Mahershala Ali is fantastic. I’ll accept his Oscar for doing nothing in Moonlight as an advance award for this performance. Mortensen isn’t doing anything any other actor couldn’t do and hasn’t done, playing a Noo Yawk Italian stereotype who learns to be more accepting. It's an autopilot performance and deserves nothing.

I couldn't agree with you more, R549, regarding Theron. Perfectly said.

However, you seems to fall into the same pit many fine people often do. When there are no worthy candidates for the best actress lineup (and it's almost always about the lead actress category, for obvious reason) in English speaking films, names of "foreign" actresses are being mentioned. Never as alternatives for the best of the likes of 1962 or 2006, when - not that characteristically- there were an accumulations of good, showy starring roles for women. But Giulietta Masina in Cabiria is often mentioned as an alternative for the rather shallow and schlocky virtuosity of Woodward in T3FoE as the best of the dismal 1957, and the admiration of Liv Ullmann has a lot to do with the disgracefully low state of female presence in the American films of the '70s. I don't dismiss Oksana Akinshina, but maybe at least part of the reasoning for bringing up her name is the total lack of other, more conventional, candidates (I know the feeling, I too run my own private Alternative Oscars enterprize, and yes, best actress of 2003 is indeed a very tough one. Pressed, I'll name Uma Thurman for Kill Bill Part I).

THE 2018 WAFCA AWARD WINNERS.

Little Timmy better start to worry now.

Lilya 4-Ever is probably one of the most depressing movies ever made. It’s just unrelenting. It makes They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? look like light fare.

"Little Timmy" isn't the only one who should start to worry. Glenn had better start lighting candles in hopes of even getting a nomination.

Once again, critics awards don't mean squat regarding the Oscars. They vote for who they think deserves it, not who they think will win the Oscar. SAG, Golden Globes, and BAFTA do try to be predictors, so those are the ones to watch out for.

If Timmy is even a contender, he shouldn’t be worried. So far no one in his category is dominating these critics’ prizes; if anything they’re really spread out. Look to LA to give it to Steven Yuen, or someone else equally outside the Academy mainstream. It’s a weak year for Supporting Actor anyway.

Nick Nolte is giving a really magnificent performance in, unfortunately, an awful film - "Headful of Honey"

[quote]They vote for who they think deserves it

That’s the whole point. So far, no one seems to think Glenn deserves it. The idea that she’s more deserving because she’s lost out so many times seems not to hold any water. She’s toast as far as a win, and maybe even as far as a nomination.

Los Angeles Online Film Critics Society Nominations.

Oh look who is NOT nominated again - Glenn Close!

OMG- Best Male Director and Best Female Director? Could we please put a cap on these meaningless awards already?

Rami Malek got his much deserved nomination. Now onto Oscars

R576 perhaps I should've said "their favorite" since it's all subjective, anyway.

Anyway, my point is that the Oscars don't often go to the people who many think deserve it. There are several factors involved: age, overdue status. lifetime achievement, politics, biopics, etc. You have to take all of that into account, not just performance. As it stands, her performance notwithstanding, Gaga doesn't have a narrative to win Best Actress. She's never been taken seriously as an actress (many saw her GG win for AHS a joke) and this is her first feature film and would be her first nod as Best Actress. Very rarely does someone win an Oscar on their first try, especially in the lead category. That alone is one strike against Gaga winning.

Incidentally, you seem to be new at this if you think that performance alone decides the Oscar or that critics awards have any sway.

Glenn is a lock for a nomination. Anyone stating otherwise has no idea what they’re talking about.

R541 They chose Rooney Mara for her dreary Lisbeth Salander.

Swinton was snubbed for a Harvey girl Mara

R543 Samantha Morton (IN AMERICA) and Naomi Watts

both Morton and Watts were way better than Theron and they are better actors too especially Morton!

Charlize gives one of my favorite performances in Young Adult. Absolutely love that movie. I think the unlikability of her character might have hurt her chances.

Tilda also go all the necessary precursors and then was inexplicably left off the list.

Rooney Mara - ugh, the less said about that performance, the better. Although, I would say the the winner, Meryl in the execrable The Iron Lady, probably have the worst performance out of those nominated (and that includes Glenn in male drag).

Theron gave the same acting in Tully and Young Adult

[quote]Theron was considered a joke and horrible actress. I'm not really sure how the narrative got changed by THAT performance

I have always wondered about that

Remember when she bared more than her soul in Church in The Devil's Advocate? Do you think that's the scene the male producers made her audition with, like Margot Robbie in TWOWS??

Theron gave the same acting in Tully and Young Adult

....and Arrested Development

What a dumb opinion, r588

R587, someone on the crew of The Devil’s Advocate told me that for some reason all of the wardrobe, hair and make-up departments had been ordered to go on their lunch break and so when they finished the scene with Theron lying on the floor in broken glass was completed there was nobody to even hand her a fucking robe.

[quote] I think the unlikability of her character might have hurt her chances.

Or perhaps the fact that many found Young Adult to be a bloody bore. Patton Oswald was good but unappealing, especially for the resolution.

The movie got tons of advance PR, and then couldn’t deliver. Its worldwide gross was 22 million, not good for a film that cost 12 million to make.

R591, it’s status as a cult film has grown over the years since it was released and it has many fans. You’re obviously not one of them, but I’ve spoken with several.

*its

Speaking of Patton Oswalt, he won LAFCA (one of the major critics awards) for YOUNG ADULT and he didn't even get an Oscar nomination.

Ok, I've looked everywhere and I can't find it. When will the shortlist fo the short films -live action and animated -will be announced ?

Usually, it's at this time of the year. We get a list of ten, and then only five remain when all the Oscar noms are officially anounced.

And that was a pretty weak field for Supporting Actor that year, R594. Christopher Plummer was obviously going to win in a walk, but the rest were Kenneth Branagh playing Laurence Olivier instead of just imitating him, Max von Sydow for the execrable "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," Jonah Hill for being in a good movie that wasn't a comedy, and Nick Nolte.

[quote]it’s status as a cult film has grown over the years since it was released and it has many fans. You’re obviously not one of them, but I’ve spoken with several.

Really? One never hears it talked about. I mean, you and your friends do, but I went to several lists of cult films (the ones that are geared to 21st century films) and couldn't find it listed anywhere.

This list is of "19 Recent Movies That are Sure to Become Cult Films." None of these were on the other lists, but "Young Adult" isn't here, either.

Shutting ...

this ...

down....