Oscar Season 2018: Part 3

No way Regina King is not getting nominated.

Did Rami really call Sally Field “Gidget” to her face? With or without Freddie’s accent?

Rami is Fugli

Judy Greer for Halloween.

Rami is gorgeous.

What will Regina King be nominated for?

IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK.

What would it say, r7?

Glenn loses, R8. Again.

Regina King was transcendent in Beale Street. Baldwin wanted Ruby Dee to play the part and Regina would have made her proud.

What was Linda in? I’ve liked her since freaks n geeks and since Jason Segal whines about her dumping him.

Can Rami still get in for Best Actor?

R11 GREEN BOOK with Mahershala Ali and Viggo Mortensen.

R8

“Reverend Green be glad to see you when you haven’t got a prayer”

Just reposting this here for further discussion:

Blunt could emerge late in the game if MPR is a huge hit (which it undoubtedly will be). She’s replacing Julie Andrews FGS! All I’m saying is when the nominees are announced it wouldn’t surprise me if she’s there.

I think Toni Collette can safely make other plans on Oscar night. Maybe watching the broadcast at Glenn Close’s house.

The irony of The Wife is that the distributors withheld a year because they thought the competition was so stiff last year (now I can’t even remember who won - though Ladybird was nominated) and now this year the competition is even more stiff. Even if Close gets nominated she’s more in Albert Nobbs terroritory than Dangerous Liasons. She might as well work the valet parking stand as well and make some money.

And the problem with The Wife is that nobody is talking about Jonathan Pryce’s performance - because it’s that small of a film. If she’s ignored by the critics’ associations, she’s out of it. The Wife is also a film that SAG members won’t have a lot of time for as they notoriously don’t watch anything until the last moment and have no taste anyway. They’ll watch much starrier films first.

Please God, just ignore Rami Malek this awards season, the ugly little rodent. Does nobody else think he looks like a skinny little boy strutting around trying to be Freddie Mercury? Freddie Mercury was a meaty, hairy man! Rami Malek has gotten a free ride for too long - and I hope it ends soon. Will never forgive him for calling our Sally “Gidget” on Graham Norton last Friday night. Appalling behaviour.

I actually would love that, R4. Judy Greer was fantastic.

OP, if you don't tell us which films these are for, this poll is completely pointless.

Many of these actresses have more than one film released this year.

Oh, FFS R17. They’re pretty much all only in one logical supporting performance.

Amy Adams VICE

Linda Cardellini GREEN BOOK

Marina de Tavira ROMA

Elizabeth Debicki or someone else From WIDOWS

Claire Foy FIRST MAN

Nicole Kidman BOY ERASED

Regina King IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK

Margot Robbie MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

Emma Stone THR FAVOURITE

Rachel Weisz THE FAVOURITE

[quote]And the problem with The Wife is that nobody is talking about Jonathan Pryce’s performance - because it’s that small of a film.

A few people have - not Oscar Bloggers - but he got excellent reviews, especially considering he was playing a Brooklyn Jew. (Like seriously, is there seriously a lack of NY Jews in the acting biz?!)

But this is the first time I have taken notice of one of his performances since CARRINGTON. The stuff with him flirting with those women and the walnut shit was great.

[quote]now this year the competition is even more stiff.

Not really. She, Melissa McCarthy and Gaga are the only locks.

No one thinks Olivia Colman will win.

Glenn Close will definitely be nominated. There is someone who seems very invested in convincing folks this is not going to happen. Is that you, M?

I think the only BA licks so far are Gaga and Coleman. The rest are just in the shuffle.

I never thought Rami would get a nomination, but after Bohemian Rhapsody's reviews he's definitely out.

I’m hoping that film bombs this weekend.

I just read If Beale Street Could Talk. Regina King has a great part and she’s widely respected. I think the Oscar is hers.

R20, after “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” had such a mediocre debut, I don’t think McCarthy is a lock anymore, and I think the win is out of the question. I think Richard E. Grant is probably more secure for a nomination than she is, although I still think both will make it in.

It’s a shame, though, since she really needs to be encouraged to do a lot more movies like this and no more directed by her husband.

Glenn Close, The Wife

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Aborted

Amy Adams, What's the name of the movie again?

-,-

These are my predix.

[quote]The irony of The Wife is that the distributors withheld a year because they thought the competition was so stiff last year (now I can’t even remember who won - though Ladybird was nominated) and now this year the competition is even more stiff.

No. Frances McDormand was not going to be denied last year. Close would have definitely lost to her. This year she has a very good chance of winning.

The Wife has grossed $7 million + domestically and $5 million internationally. Not bad for a small film.

LInda Cardellini?

Glenn's desperate campaigning - the mystery illnesses, the oh poor me - I'm a poor man's Streep will backfire with Oscar voters. They are tired of her back door way of attempting to be nominated.

R31 Oh, M...

You're losing your edge.

R29 It's not bad for the type of film it is and the studio releasing it. However, it would be the lowest grossing Best Actress winner since Blue Sky 24 years ago. That's the film's biggest hurdle, but I think Glenn will win mostly for being Glenn and that's enough for the Academy.

R33 Like Lange's win, that would make it even MORE of an honor.

Bomemian Rhapsody Savage Review------NY POST------"Bohemian Rhapsody is not the Freddie Mercury we deserve" ------"In one scene during a tour, Freddie is on the phone with his then-fiancee Mary Austin (Lucy Boynton), and she says, “Say hi to the boys for me.” Making eyes at a man who indicates Freddie should follow him into the bathroom, he responds “I will.” It’s cheesy to the point of mockery.".......ouch!!

Bohemian Rhapsody Review (part Deux) = NY POST = "Instead of inhabiting Mercury’s dark emotional life, Malek gives us a little silhouetto of a man. It’s a surface-level performance — physically galvanizing, but with no substance. The rocker was known for his flamboyant style and calling everybody “darling,” but he wasn’t Liberace. Malek, like he did in “Papillon,” gets lost in eccentricity."----------by the way---According to the article, 25 minutes of the film is A Re-Enactment of the Queen Live Aid Concert......25 MINUTES?.... WTF!!!.....Even the critic says go to YT and watch the original for free.

Bohemian Rhapsody Review (Part Thrice) = "Rhapsody” has a shallow script, oversize performances and looks like it was shot in a sauna."......Ouch!!

NO one was predicting Oscars for it, were they?

People kept saying not to count Rami out. This should put an end to that.

IndieWire Review = "‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ Review: A Spirited Rami Malek Can’t Save Bryan Singer’s Royally Embarrassing Queen Biopic".........."a broad, frivolous, and uselessly formulaic biopic".........."Lucky for Bryan Singer — an increasingly bland director whose recent work is only distinguished by the “personal troubles” that got him fired off this production and replaced by Dexter Fletcher — Queen left behind one hell of a legacy."

Variety Bohemian Rhapsody Review = "Freddie reveals to the band, during rehearsals for the Live Aid show, that he has HIV (even though he wasn’t, in fact, diagnosed until two years later),"--------------So much for accuracy.

The anti-Malek Troll, who is probably the Poppins Loon, is tiresome. Malek got a rave in Variety, bitch.

Mary Poppins Returns will get 11 nominations. It will be a contender, and will win all the craft awards, costumes, cinematography, etc. Maybe a best song, too.

Young Hollywood when Glenn Close's name is mentioned, ask who is HE?

R42 = Rami Malek's twin brother

R44 Oh, Gaga. Sensing your impending loss?

Also, stop self projecting.

I'm just back from seeing A Star Is Born again - third time was a charm (even though I liked it upon the first viewing). I've been seeing the other contenders as well and will continue to see more as they're released but I gotta say....I think Oscar night is going to belong to A Star Is Born.

Consider: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Song and maybe a few others. I don't think it'll triumph in the Adapted Screenplay category - other films will be honoured there. But it seems likely it's going to be Bradley Cooper's night and I think his Best Actor win could carry Gaga along. Whomever the nominated actresses are, Gaga will benefit from the fact that everyone will have seen her film - and I would wager, a majority of people will have seen it more than once, as the box office is already benefiting from repeated viewings. And what repeated viewings demonstrate is that this film holds up. I think the Academy will be moved to invest in Cooper as a Director as well because it bodes well for the future of the film industry - while everyone else is directing superhero shite, Cooper has turned in a huge hit, adult drama and will likely continue to draw sizeable audiences for years to come. He's the new Eastwood.

Additionally, Hollywood loves nothing more than films about itself. The Artist, Argo, etc., etc. The Academy is already biased in favour of this film.

I think Gaga will win it because the film has the best narrative going on the night - again, not "Popstar wins Oscar" though there is some of that there but in keeping with the romance of the film. I think The Academy is going to go all in on BP, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress.

And Best Song. Because what would be a great Oscar moment than Bradley Cooper on guitar singing The Shallow with Lady Gaga on the Oscars? They want viewers, right? I can even see a brief montage of "I just wanted to take another look at you" from every version of A Star Is Born dating back to 1937 before showcasing the film as Best Picture nom. The Academy is going to fall for this film HARD. And again, I think it will really benefit from people, even voters, who have seen it repeatedly.

We might as well start guessing how epic Gaga's gratitude to Judy Garland will be during her acceptance speech. And BARBRA! It's just the best awards narrative going - certainly a lot better than "old actress we've ignored for over 3 decades has made another small indie film that she's pretty good in."

I really dislike Shallow as a song.

R47, we get it, Mary. You liked the movie.

You must mean Best Supporting Actor, R47. Not Actress.

I think Melissa McCarthy will be nominated in 2020 for The Kitchen, a film not directed by her husband.

Jamie Lee Curtis should be in contention for Best Supporting Actress in Halloween. Her performance is amazing.

Also, John Carpenter should win the Oscar for Best Score.

Yeah R50, Best Supporting ACTOR. Thanks.

r47

Erm...is this a dance-off, R54?

Yes.

I hope Ilc and her shenis get a nomination.

I finally saw A STAR IS BORN. With the exception of Bradley Cooper, I cannot see any other actor winning an acting Oscar. I’d be cheering Sam Elliot on if he won, but if he gets nominated, it is because he is Sam Elliot. Andrew Dice Clay was actually better.

I loved the second song Gaga performed onstage on the piano, the one she started writing in the diner.

She’s not much of an actress, and there were two scenes that she sunk. The first one was the bathtub fight. It was such a juicy scene and she really didn’t give Cooper anything to play off. The second was her big track at the end. She performed it as a big, soulless, cheeseball 90s-era Mariah Carey ballad - exactly the opposite of how Jack asked her to perform it during their conversation in front of the billboard.

It really is Cooper’s film.

Also, I saw the trailers for Bohemian Rhapsody and Widows beforehand.

Rami’s ratty overbite and bulging eyes seem problematic. And Widows! Is Viola Davis always so hard and aggressive?

It's really pretty stupid to even discuss this now. There are 2 months left in the year, and those two months usually include a lot of heavy-hitters. For instance, who's even seen "Boy Erased" yet? Kidman looks fantastic in the trailer.

That having been said, I agree that it's highly unlikely that anything will be able to knock ASIB off the top of the heap, which is fine by me.

[quote]For instance, who's even seen "Boy Erased" yet?

It already screened at festivals to tepid notices, though Kidman's generated some buzz for her supporting role. It's not useless to discuss this now because the majority of films have already been seen at various festivals. Vice is one of the few that hasn't been officially seen yet.

[quote]Mary Poppins Returns will get 11 nominations.

Comparisons will inevitably be made to the Julie Andrews version. And sorry, but Emily Blunt is no Julie Andrews to put it nicely. Although in today's trite climate, I guess anything can get nominated if it looks "prestigious" enough.

Her last number wasnt soulless and her acting was more than decent but Cooper definitely was the focal point.

I think the problem with Gaga's final song - aside from the ones already mentioned - is that she's really singing a song about her husband's love for her. But she sings it like it's about her love for him. When I first saw it, I thought that final shot of her was jarring and abrupt. The last time I saw it, I realised she's actually looking up at him (to the heavens) and then to the camera. Cooper really did make it a monument to himself (well, his character).

Renee Zelweger's Judy is going to catch everyone by surprise and will be the surprise winner at the Oscars next year. Shocking everyone.

MISS Helen Lawson for her groundbreaking supporting role as "The Old Drunken Lady in the Gutter" in Mary Poppins Returns

R65 I think Renee will likely be very good, but it’s not being released until 2019 and has been cast full of British actors trying out their usually embarrassing American accents.

R64, that’s what is both great and flawed about the movie. It really is a tale of Jackon’s (Cooper’s?) addiction and the woman he almost destroyed, where as in the two previous versions I have seen, the focus is pretty much split between them.

In Cooper’s film, the focus is broadly on him, partially because of the way we wrote it and partially because Lady Gaga playing his wife isn’t strong enough a (non-singing) presence to play her side of their relationship (both love story and codependent tragedy) with much range to differentiate each beat of their relationship.

But she’ll get a Best actress nomination and he will probably win Best actor at this point. Unless Christian Bale does something with VICE that makes people love rather than respect the film/character, which I doubt, Bradley has got it in the bag.

[quote]has been cast full of British actors trying out their usually embarrassing American accents.

Not exactly. The movie takes place during Judy's last few months in London, so a lot of the characters are Brits. Finn Wittrock, American, is playing Mickey Deans, her final husband. Michael Gambon is playing Bernard Delfont, a Brit. Rufus Sewell is the only Brit playing a major American role (Sid Luft). Lorna and Liza are played by Brits, but neither role looks like it's much of anything in the movie, based on billing.

I went to a screening of Boy Erased last weekend and Kidman really might sneak in a nomination. A scene with her character and Lucas Hedges’ character is truly the emotional high point of the film.

I got to see If Beale Street Could Talk on Saturday night at the National Air & Space Museum in Washington, D.C. as the closing night event for the Smithsonian African-American Film Festival. Director Barry Jenkins and stars KiKi Layne, Stephan James, and the luminous Regina King were all in attendance which was very exciting. It was in the very huge IMAX theater at the museum and it was really amazing to see on such a big screen.

Jenkins more than fulfills the promise of his surprise Best Picture [Moonlight triumph. I think this is a very good film and is, at times, visually stunning. I love the way it was filmed. His ability to linger in moments and take advantage of non-verbal human contact is just as superb here as something like the diner scene in Moonlight. The score is exquisite. The production values and the use of color are also note-worthy. It's a pretty narratively tight story, but Jenkins experiments with structure here in successful ways.

Layne and James have a very palpable chemistry and mostly sell the love story (it helps that they are both newcomers and you can almost wholly believe that they actually are these characters). However, I was most impressed by Brian Tyree Henry in a devastating cameo and Regina King who I would not be surprised to see becoming a strong supporting actress conteder for this. She turns in an excellent performance.

Didn't we already have the 2018 Oscars last February, OP? Academy Awards for 2018 movies will be handed out at the 2019 ceremony.

Wish I could delete that...

I saw ASIB and thought Gaga was good. Cooper was also good not great but the film itself doesn’t come near the depth of prior versions. It’ll bring eyeballs to the telecast so that’s something.

From stuff I've read Streisand's wasnt very deep. Is Garland's considered the best version?

[QUOTE]Cooper was also good not great but the film itself doesn’t come near the depth of prior versions

You've clearly not seen the Streisand version.

Bohemian opened to 12.2 million in the UK, off to a great start.

The critics have been ravaging Bohemian Rhapsody. Malek has a lot to overcome for a nomination.

Hardly it has an 55 percent on Rt, Meryl won for the iron lady and that git critically panned. Seems the biggest issue is the structure and narrative they chose for the film, malek has been getting raves as freddy.

R76 wasnt the Streisand version essentially panned.

....

R79, the rules for Meryl Streep don’t apply to anyone else. She gets a nomination when she wants one. No other person has that power over Academy voters, and frankly no one should.

R82 Nope she only got nominations because her buddy Weinstein got them for her. She did claim he was a God after all.

Harvey did get Streep some of her worst nominations (Iron Lady, August: Osage County, Music of the Heart), but he can’t take the blame for the rest.

Grossing 12.2M in the UK for a Queen biopic is easy - it's the home court advantage. They've also been showing that bloody trailer in UK cinemas for the last 4 months on the front of EVERY movie. Not sure it'll have the same impact Stateside. In the UK, it's cross-generational. In the States, it's Mr. Robot fans. Big difference.

Not everybody was impressed with Malek's performance either. I read some UK reviews that described his as skinny and small, and because of the shite screenplay, more of an attitude than a character. Apparently there's some really atrocious dialogue.

Beautiful Boy is only 68% on RT.

I read a review of Beautiful Boy that said that Timothee was not all that good. Compared his performance to something like Al Pacino in The Panic in Needle Park to show how lacking his drug addict character was. I haven't seen it, so I can't comment. Steve Carrell was also weak and not up to the challenge, they said.

Brian Tyree Henry should be nominated for Best Supporting Actor. He is very memorable in a small role in If Beale Street Could Talk. If nominated, he would have received nominations for the Tony, Emmy, and Oscar all in the same year.

[quote]Comparisons will inevitably be made to the Julie Andrews version. And sorry, but Emily Blunt is no Julie Andrews to put it nicely.

How would you put it Blunt-ly?

Emily Blunt isn't fit to lick Julie Andrews' poopchute! Is that blunt enough for you, r88?

Apparently Bohemian Rhapsody is the largest pre-sale on Fandango all year in the category of musical, even beating out ASIB. They're predicting a $40m opening this weekend.

I don't get it, either.

One of many YouTube videos from Be Kind Rewind about Best Actress races. This one is about Cher's win for Moonstruck in 1988 but there's plenty more.

Seems tailor made for DL.

Bohemian Rhapsody may have a decent opening but will it have legs?

R91 I discovered that channel just last week! She's really good and knowledgeable. And I did think of the DL when I first watched the Grace Kelly/Judy Garland video.

A.O. Scott of the NYT sticks the boot into Bohemian Rhapsody HARD:

"Sadly, absurdly, “Bohemian Rhapsody” is a plodding, literal-minded, conventional affair, in spite of Malek’s game attempt to mimic Mercury’s strutting theatricality onstage and his operatic moodiness in daily life... none of it feels remotely authentic. Mud on your face. Big disgrace."

Maybe Bohemian Rhapsody will be a terrible movie a moderate sized group of fans love, like THE GREATEST SHOWMAN.

I still think Toni Collette will get a nomination over Melissa McCarthy. Critics and the industry adore her.

R96 then why has she only been Oscar-nominated once 20 years ago?

R97/dumpkopf, because she hasn’t had an Oscar-worthy ROLE since The Sixth Sense.

Critics and the industry adore McCarthy, too, r96, and she doesn't have the rep for being a bit "difficult" like Collette has.

It's highly unlikely Collette will bump someone out of the list, but if she does, it won't be McCarthy.

If Collette scores three or more Critics' awards, or nominations, MAYBE she'll make it. But not likely.

Collette does NOT have a rep for being “difficult,” R99. Stop lying.

Stop lying yourself, r100. She certainly does, both in the theater and in her film work. Not a monster, there are plenty worse, but not the most pleasant person to work with, certainly not like Melissa McCarthy, who IS well-liked, and will definitely get a nomination.

R101, Collette doesn’t have that rep. And in the only theater she’s ever done-The Wild Party on Broadway-it was Mandy Patinkin who had the awful rep. He apparently smacked her in rehearsals

So STOP LYING.

Will Gaga take the best song Oscar? Or does Kendrick Lamar still have a chance with his work on Black Panther? The BP soundtrack was amazing; I especially love the song All the Stars by Kendrick Lamar and Sza.

Gaga has the Song Oscar locked. “Shallow” is the big moment in the movie, and that matters. It’s not just judging the song, it’s judging its impact on the movie. I can’t even remember when the Lamar song appeared in the movie.

Plus, Song is her consolation prize when she loses Best Actress.

Shallow isn't a very good song. The best part plays during the film's teaser shown on tv.

Who else is in the running for best song?

[quote]Plus, Song is her consolation prize when she loses Best Actress.

I co-wrote (with Brian Byrne) the Golden Globe-nominated song for ALBERT NOBBS, which was inexplicably snubbed by the Academy. You'd think that the Academy would want to throw me a bone, since they were planning to give Meryl her umpteenth Oscar all along.

“It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” isn’t good either, but it won because it was integral to “Hustle & Flow” and none of the other nominees were.

Troye Sivan wrote a song for Boy Erased so he'll likely get in since he's popular. The song isn't very good though.

Remember, it’s the Music Branch that votes for the nominations. It’s still a lot of people like Randy Newman and Phil Collins voting, not exactly the crowd that goes for Sivan, especially if it’s for a song that nobody knows, isn’t very good and is in a film with a tepid reception.

Writings on the Walls by Sam Smith in the James Bond film Spectre was not an Oscar calibre song and yet it won. Maybe because the previous Bond had won best song as Well (Adele) and the voters didn't make the effort to listen to all the songs and poonder their relative merit.

So yeah, Shallow is famous. This is more than enough for the voters.

Black Panther was the more (pop) culturally relevant film this year, and Kendrick is at the top of the music game. If anyone were to shift the Gaga narrative for best song, it would be him and BP. The Weekend also had a popular song on the BP soundtrack, and he is a previous Oscar nominee, so he could slip into the race as I don't think there are many contenders besides the two frontrunners.

Is there a musical Pixar movie I'm forgetting? They've done well in the best song category.

[quote] [R101], Collette doesn’t have that rep. And in the only theater she’s ever done-The Wild Party on Broadway-it was Mandy Patinkin who had the awful rep. He apparently smacked her in rehearsals. So STOP LYING.

She was also in a Broadway play 4 years ago w/ Marisa Tomei called The Realistic Joneses, so YOU STOP LYING.

OK, dearie/R112/LIAR, I’ll just remember to gloat when Collette receives her Oscar nomination in January.

Collette is up for a horror movie that audiences hated. She might have a slight chance if she gets a massive critical push, but no one should be that confident about her chances.

Melissa McCarthy

McCarthy is at best third (and that’s solely based on Colman’s category confusion), and even then she doesn’t seem like she can win. But she is terrific in the movie, and I’d love her to be nominated simply because Davis, Kidman and the like will always do good work without the encouragement not to do another terrible comedy.

Hereditary was a flop, even with some good reviews. Collette isn't getting shit for it.

Not when there's

Glenn

Gaga

McCarthy

Colman

Davis

Yalitza Aparicio

Carey Mulligan

Kidman

Roberts

Ronan

Every single one of those would score a nomination before Collette

Always amusing to see some lunatic on DL who is so invested in one particular performance that they think they can will a nomination just by insisting on it.

Stop trying to make Hereditary happen. Just stop.

Did anyone see the Paul Schrader movie with Ethan Hawke?

R117 what about Jamie Lee Curtis? I've been hearing buzz about her, especially after HALLOWEEN has become a box office smash and the fact that some feel she was snubbed for 2003's FREAKY FRIDAY. (The comedy filler nod went to Diane Keaton in SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE.) Then you also have to consider the #metoo movement and how HALLOWEEN 2018 is about strong female characters. It also broke a couple box office records concerning a female lead.

I think Regina King will win Supporting Actress. In fact, I think she will sweep the televised awards. They need at least one POC winner from a high-profile movie and she fills the bill.

[quote]They need at least one POC winner

So they should just have a black winner 'because'?

Regina King will win because she is a great actress.

Why do we need ANOTHER Amy Adams or Emma Stone nomination so soon? Share the wealth. Amy Adams hasn't really been good in years, to be honest. And Emma Stone is good, but she doesn't shit gold every time either. Too many actors and actresses racking up nominations for subpar work in recent years.

Yes R123. OscarsSoWhite is still fresh on voters' minds. This is how the world should work, but it's DEFINITELY how Hollywood works.

*This is NOT how the world should work...

[quote]Amy Adams hasn't really been good in years, to be honest.

Says you. And so what? If her performance is excellent in this specific film, she should get a nod or at least be seriously considered.

One thing I've noticed is that black people expect just things to be handed to them; they're still on reparation mode. They don't care if they earn a nomination/win, just as long as they have it. On the other hand, I've noticed that Latinos/Asians would rather work for it and EARN their accolades. That's probably why you don't hear them bitch and moan when Latinos/Asians don't get nominated yearly.

There's no black Harvey Weinstein securing automatic nominations and wins for black actresses.

And Latino's and Asians have also boycotted the Oscars in recent years as well.

The problem does't lie in the Academy. It's the film business as a whole, which is still primarily catered to whites. That's why they have the meatier roles. What needs to happen is there needs to be more/better roles written for people of color, including Latinos/Asians. I don't think the Academy should be forced to nominate POC in subpar performances just to fill a quota. Like I said, it's not their problem; their job is to award excellence though, as we all know, that's sometimes not the case. However, that's another can of worms.

In short, people of color should protest the film business, not the Academy.

[quote] Did anyone see the Paul Schrader movie with Ethan Hawke?

Yes, and it's lethally dull. Hawke gives a good, quiet performance (and may likely get in now that Gosling and First Man are now cannon fodder), but it wouldn't be an outrage if he was forgotten.

[quote] what about Jamie Lee Curtis? I've been hearing buzz about her, especially after HALLOWEEN has become a box office smash and the fact that some feel she was snubbed for 2003's FREAKY FRIDAY.

Darling, NO ONE thinks Jamie Lee Curtis was snubbed for Freaky Friday. Not even Jamie Lee.

However, if the PC hive starts buzzing loudly enough, she could get in on the SJW vote. While not a terrible actress, Curtis is not someone who has ever deserved an Oscar nomination. And all of her bullshit claw clacking this season about how her film has broken so much ground, blithely ignoring that 99% of horror/slasher films ever made had a female lead, will hopefully have crested once the movie crawls away.

[quote]Darling, NO ONE thinks Jamie Lee Curtis was snubbed for Freaky Friday. Not even Jamie Lee.

I recall when the nominations were announced in early 2004 there were a couple film critics who were watching live and predicted beforehand that she and Johnny Depp for PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN would get in. Afterward, they expressed shock that JML was 'snubbed.' I think Joel Siegel was one of them.

*JLC, not JML.

R129 No one forces the Academy to do anything. They are so desperate to prove that they are not racist that they do it themselves. Mahershala Ali is a good actor and a nice man, but his was not the Supporting performance of the year. He won because he was in an "important" movie and because he is black. Same reason 12 Years a Slave won over Gravity. It's "important" and full of POC. Some Academy members confessed to not even watching 12 Years but voting for it anyway.

Regina King will win for the same reason Ali did. Doesn't matter if it's the performance of the year. No one is falling all over themselves to give Amy Adams awards, much to her fans' dismay.

R134 I don't know how anyone can even take the Oscars seriously. Between stories of buying Oscars, big wigs using their pull, having to campaign, and the actual voters outright admitting they don't even watch everything and sometimes just vote for what they think is best, it's one big farce. I just like all the hoopla, politics and discussion that surrounds the Oscars. It's always bizarre to hear the methodology of it all at times.

Bette Davis has the same number of Oscars as Elizabeth Taylor, Jodie Foster and Hillary Swank. Tells you a lot.

R136 you can't compare like that. Every year is different. It's luck a lot of the times. Sometimes the competition is not as strong. Or there's an agenda. Or someone is supposedly 'overdue.' Just because Taylor, Foster, and Hillary won twice doesn't mean they would have won if their films had been released in different years. For instance, I think that Angela Bassett would've won for the Tina Turner biopic if her film had been delayed a year.

R137 I think you're proving his point. Agenda? Someone's overdue? It is supposed to be about the best performance that year, while trying to be as objective as possible. Obviously that's impossible, but hearing these stories it's like people don't even bother.

R137 of course she would have won if her movie was delayed and released in 1994, it's notoriously one of the weakest, if not the worst year ever for Best Actress!

R138 my point is that you can't compare winners when they were in contention in different years. Heck, decades. And it's not like the Academy members were the same when Bette was nominated in the '30s-'60s vs. Hillary Swank in the 2000s.

Who's leading the race for animated feature?

It makes me kind of sad that BR turned out to be a flop; I remember watching Queen's performance at Live Aid on TV as a kid & thinking how amazing it was. I can't even imagine what it was like to be there. I also can't believe that I had no idea that Freddy Mercury was gay.

Not that it's necessarily much of an indication, but I thought the Mary Queen of Scots movie looked like a bore (though the world loves Margo when she makes herself ugly) & it bothered me that Ronan had a Scottish accent when MQOS was raised in the French court & likely would've had a french accent.

Incredibles 2 will likely win

[quote]It makes me kind of sad that BR turned out to be a flop

Didn't the movie debut this weekend at #1 and grossed $50 million? It also has also grossed another $91 million overseas. It's total is currently at $141 million.

If not “Incredibles 2,” “Isle of Dogs” might take it. But right now I’d still bet on Pixar.

[quote] Curtis is not someone who has ever deserved an Oscar nomination. And all of her bullshit claw clacking this season about how her film has broken so much ground, blithely ignoring that 99% of horror/slasher films ever made had a female lead

Fuck off, DARLING. There have been actors who have WON the fucking award who never deserved a nomination or anything, so your first point is meaningless. As for 99% of horror movies starring females, that’s a meaningless point, too. She’s crowing, deservedly so, because it’s the largest opening for a horror film, second largest for October, largest ever for any film with a female lead over 55, largest for horror with a female lead.

And the film is already a huge hit. It’s not going to “crawl away.”

Does Academy fave Benedict Cumberbatch and his Grinch reboot have a chance at best animated film?

R144 I think they're talking about blade runner, bohemian rhapsody overperformed big time. Not a flop.

[quote] Fuck off, DARLING. There have been actors who have WON the fucking award who never deserved a nomination or anything, so your first point is meaningless.

So you're basically saying JLC isn't worthy of the award but should still be nominated. Way to make your point.

[quote] As for 99% of horror movies starring females, that’s a meaningless point, too. She’s crowing, deservedly so, because it’s the largest opening for a horror film, second largest for October, largest ever for any film with a female lead over 55, largest for horror with a female lead.

You're kind of stupid, aren't you? The genre started 40 years ago. Ticket prices have jumped incredibly since then. Try doing a real analysis before you make that claim. And biggest opening with a female lead over 55? is this some sort of genre no one was aware of before? Or is it your ridiculous need to make this film seem more important than it is?

[quote] And the film is already a huge hit. It’s not going to “crawl away.”

It's already begun to crawl away, dear. It fell from #1 to #5 this week. These films don't have legs. They appeal to their audience and then die away.

Go play in another thread you know something about. Maybe the Kardashians or something.

R148 are you sure 'cause s/he then goes on to discuss fond memories of Queen/Freddy Mercury in the same paragraph.

R150 Unless they're talking about how it performed critically (60%) on rotten tomatoes? Because it had a huge 141 million global opening from a 52 million budget, that's only a flop to delusional people who were expecting this to open like superhero movies.

[quote]Some Academy members confessed to not even watching 12 Years but voting for it anyway.

No one sits around and watches every single performance. They vote for the most popular one or the one who has won the most buzz.

And the same year that 12 years won, was the same year that Weinstein pulled back from promoting The Butler's Oscar chances (despite it being a box office hit and strong Oscar buzz for Oprah Winfrey) in favor of boosting the poorly reviewed, box office flop August Osage County. So Meryl can get her obligatory Oscar nomination despite some of the worst reviews of her career. But of course, there's no problem with that. Not even when she deliberately sabotaged Emma's chances. Can you imagine if that were Viola Davis? Of course, Viola doesn't have a strong benefactor in her corner.

The Oscars have rarely ever been about rewarding the best performance. That's why it's laughable when people get pissed over black people demanding to get a fair share in recent years.

R152 are you implying that black people don't care about quality, just quantity?

Black people want their quality to be given fair consideration.

That poster that thinks jlc and her shenis is getting a nomination will be just as disappointed as Colette fans will.

R152 that's bullshit, Weinstein has promoted multiple movies in the past when he thought they could get in.

If O, who, according to DL, is responsible for the 2002 Oscars having black lead winners then if she can't score a nomination this movie was a dead Donkey.

R154 that's not what I hear, which is that they want an automatic nomination because diversity.

That's not what you hear from WHOM, r157? All those black movie actors you know? All those Academy members you know?

You're a racist, darlin'.

R158 Jada Pinkett-Smith, for one.

[quote]that's bullshit, Weinstein has promoted multiple movies in the past when he thought they could get in.

So you're admitting he rigged the system to get what he wanted?

[quote]If O, who, according to DL, is responsible for the 2002 Oscars having black lead winners

Oh, really. I've been on this page for over a decade and never came across that rumor.

No they don't.

R160 then you must be oblivious. There has been a lot of talk/speculation about how Julia Rorberts (for Denzel) and Oprah (for Halle) used their influence/power to get them the wins. Oprah didn't attend the ceremony but held an Oscar party and invited every notable black actress to 'witness history.'

The lengths some black people will go to deny they're appropriating white culture.

Sorry. Wrong thread.

I finally went to see ASIB. I was blown away by the live musical performances, they were great. When Gaga joined him onstage to sing Shallow, everyone in my group was blown away. Her acting was decent, but Bradley stole the show with his performance. His acting was superb, while his singing was just decent. And the opposite is true for her.

Dolly Parton has written and sung original songs for Aniston's new film, coming out this year. I wouldn't count her out for a Best Song nomination.

No Jennifer Aniston movie has ever earned a single Oscar nomination in any category, so a Dolly nomination would be a first.

The only category that I really care about this season is Documentary. Won't You Be My Neighbor? needs to win.

I’m not sure if it will. “RBG” is formidable competition for Documentary Feature.

I love Linda Cardellini, but I can't see her getting nominated for Green Book. I also have to give her props for being sane and having a steady career that has been a mix of voice work, TV shows, and movies.

Does FREE SOLO have a chance at being nominated for documentary? It's gotten rave reviews (99% on RottenTomatoes) and, more importantly, it's a 'gripping' film.

I didn’t see “Free Solo,” but I loved “Meru,” by the same directing team. Sadly, it didn’t get a nomination, possibly because gripping doesn’t cut it when they can make a political point.

I assume Morgan Neville’s Netflix documentary that accompanies “The Other Side of the Wind” helps his case for “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” Doing both a Fred Rogers and an Orson Welles documentary in the same year seems like a good selling point for the guy’s talents, and people seem to like his doc more than the actual movie.

I loved Meru.

This thread has gone way off! Talk about Glenn! Send her positive karma! X

OK r174

R124 clearly missed Arrival and Nocturnal Animals. I think Amy Adams cancelled herself out of that year's nominations with two terrific performances, paving for the way for Emma Stone's so-so performance to win.

Even if Jamie Lee Curtis was snubbed hard for Freaky Friday (which she wasn't, though I remember Joan Rivers striking a nerve with her on the red carpet that night when she rudely said, "Weren't you supposed to be nominated but you weren't so what are you doing here?") but even if she WERE, I doubt anyone would remember 15 years later!

Which also tells you how weak Glenn Close's Oscar narrative is this year - the people who didn't vote for her for the win are likely dead now. She should take comfort in that and forget about winning this year. Nobody is even watching her screener.

IMO, Jamie Lee Curtis in FREAKY FRIDAY was worthy of a nomination more than eventual nominee Diane Keaton in SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE. That performance was cringeworthy (i.e., endless fake crying scene) and no different from her other rom-rom performances. At least Curtis was fun and doing something different.

In fairness to JLC, there was talk that she should be nominated for True Lies as well. Not enough talk but talk nonetheless. She has her admirers.

Curtis might have got in for “True Lies” if not for category confusion, but even in an exceptionally weak year for actresses in both categories, a performance in a pure action movie was always going to be a tough sell.

But this year Actress is stacked, so she’ll have to settle for the millions she made off the “Halloween” sequel.

Curtis actually won the Golden Globe (Musical/Comedy) for TRUE LIES. Incidentally, was that the one where Jon Lovitz grabbed her boob when she went up to collect and she retaliated by grabbing his crotch?

Emma Stone will not win Supporting. lol She didn't deserve Oscar #1, they aren't giving her #2.

R181, if that had happened the other way around, Lovitz might've been in for a big surprise.

Well, I've seen Widows. It's very dour. Steve McQueen, to his detriment, is not Steven Soderbergh. The casting is amazing and the first 20 minutes as the cast was revealed, I just keep thinking, "Wow, what a cast." You'll be hard pressed to remember much of what any of them did by film's end, even Duvall who for the first time ever looks like he's phoning it in, in his two sleight scenes.

Elizabeth Debicki and Colin Farrell are the standouts as they're the only ones the audience has an opportunity to empathise with. Viola might squeak through at the GGs but she's unlikely to pull an Oscar nom - it's just not that kind of performance. It's a well made film but there's really only about 1.5 persons to like in this film. Sade could pull a nom for Best Song, possible. And the makeup on Liam Neeson is amazing - he looks pretty good in this film. But otherwise, this film isn't much of a threat to anybody in the Oscar race.

Jamie Lee has a BAFTA for Trading Places, another BAFTA nom for Fish Called Wanda and two Golden Globe Awards for motion picture comedy. She's done pretty well for herself given that she isn't considered among the Streep, Lange crowd.

Widows looks like every other basic action/revenge flick. Why is it supposed to be special?

Because diversity and black director.

It's well made but it's not even Ben Affleck's The Town, frankly.

[quote]Widows looks like every other basic action/revenge flick. Why is it supposed to be special?

Because of its Oscar nominated director, high calibre cast and famous potboiler screenwriter.

Saw Ben Is Back in Toronto and can't see how Julia won't at least be nominated. She blows Glenn Close and Gaga the only two contenders I've seen out of the water. I didn't love the movie but she is outstanding. The movie is is good though. It reminded me of a darker Pieces od April from same writer/director. It's better than that film though.

Glad to hear that, R190. I love Pieces of April and Peter Hedges is a terrific screenwriter. Looking forward to seeing Ben Is Back.

On the Basis of Sex with Felicity Jones as Ruth Bader Ginsburg has a screening tonight in NYC for SAG Nominating Committee members.

Does that mean Armie will be campaigning this season, too?

R193 if not for himself then definitely for the movie and Jones. If the movie somehow strikes a chord with people and is a hit, I can see him getting a coattail nod, especially after some felt he was snubbed last year though the Academy wasn't going to nominate him for that role in the present environment. But here he plays a supportive husband. Jones herself was nominated a few years ago for playing such a spouse.

So, Glenn technically won the first Best Actress award (Hollywood Film Award) of the season.

She has begun her ascent.

[quote] We might as well start guessing how epic Gaga's gratitude to Judy Garland will be in her acceptance speech that will e written but of course never delivered.

FIXED

RBG's fall and broken ribs just elevated Felicity Jones on the list. I don't think she'll be cracking the top five, but this will add to her campaign profile.

Lol I don't think broken ribs in the character you're playing will make much difference to voting.

R198 Ray Charles died the same year that his biopic was released and many felt that it helped Jamie Foxx win the Oscar.

R199, he was also helped by the fact that it was an extremely weak field of nominees that year, with no real memorable, standout performances. Of the five nominees that year, I would have given it to Don Cheadle for Hotel Rwanda.

One year ago this month, the New York Film Critics Circle announced their picks for the best of 2017. Of the winners in the six major categories (Picture, Director, Acting x 4), none went on to win the Oscar, although four of them received nominations.

Best Picture: Lady Bird (nominated for Oscar, did not win)

Best Director: Sean Baker, The Florida Project (not nominated for Oscar)

Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (nominated for Oscar, did not win)

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (nominated for Oscar, did not win)

Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (nominated for Oscar, did not win)

Best Supporting Actress: Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (not nominated for Oscar)

R201 I have 5 of those.

Claire Foy is one of the most boring, one note actresses around. She always plays Claire Foy

Glennie? Teehee

Claire Foy In First Man seems like the laziest nomination. I have a feeling it won’t happen.

[quote]25 Regina King has a great part and...

I thought this said “Regina King has a great [bold]pair[/bold]...” and was thinking “??????”

R2000 oh, please! Leo DiCaprio had a lot of support. Many felt he had been snubbed for TITANIC and GANGS OF NEW YORK. This was his second nomination in over ten years (since GILBERT GRAPE) and his first as Best Actor. He could've won that year, but Foxx had the better narrative. Plus, Foxx was also nominated for Supporting Actor (COLLATERAL).

You have to remember that Washington had just won Best Actor 3 years prior. Washington was only the second black actor to win a lead Oscar in 40 years, since Sidney Poitier. In the early 2000s, the Academy wasn't accustomed to regularly awarding black actors. Some felt that since Washington and Halle Berry had just won and made history, that the Academy would take its time awarding black actors in lead again. Sadly to say, that's been the case with Best Actress. But Ray Charles dying was the best thing that could've happened to Foxx's campaign.

Cheadle was not first nor second runner-up. Eastwood had the sentimental vote -- only his second Best Actor nomination and his first in 12 years. But they gave him two that night for directing and producing MILLION DOLLAR BABY.

I would even put Depp (FINDING NEVERLAND) ahead of Cheadle, since this was his second consecutive nomination. Cheadle was a newbie where the Academy was concerned and relatively unknown compared to the rest. He was the Catalina Sandino Moreno if that bunch.

R207 as for R200

I don't think the Hollywood Film Awards is a real pre-cursor. It's more of a PR dog and pony show to give potential nominees a chance to prance in front of an audience. Just look at the category names. What category did Glenn win? "Over 70 & Still Pining Away For Her 1st Oscar"? It's not a real pre-cursor.

The only precursors that matter are Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA. The Critics Choice used to be part of that triumvirate, until they made themselves a laughingstock and irrelevant a few years ago when they retroactively nominated THE FORCE AWAKENS after initially snubbing it.

Not even NYFCC and LAFCA have much pull.

The BAFTAs don't mean shit.

I finally saw THE WIFE. It's kind of a mess of a film, but Glenn does a great job in it, especially in some of those final scenes. I loved her during the awards banquet when the light is shining on her while her husband gives the acceptance speech. Her utter disgust at what has taken place is very palpable and the final confrontation is great. It was sort of a reverse bookend for how she closes out Dangerous Liasions. I'm not sure I see her as a winner this year though. It would one of the more minor films to take home an Oscar in the leading category.

Glenny is the winner winner chicken dinner!

The BAFTAs were meaningless until 2000/2001. Before then, they used to take place *after* the Oscars. But after SAG (1995) and Critics Choice (1996) debuted and got a lot of publicity along with the Golden Globes, BAFTA decided to get in the game. I guess they figured, if they couldn't be like the Oscars in their own right, they could at least try to predict them. Notice how they situated themselves so that they're the last precursors to take place until the Oscars.

[quote]The BAFTAs don't mean shit.

Yes they do as the Brit voting block in the Academy has a lot of crossover with the BAFTA membership.

Of course Glenn Close is winning.

The only detractors are stans rooting for their faves, past (they don't want G catching up) and present (they want their current fave to win).

G is winning.

Young Hollywood will reject Glenn Close. Old Hollywood won't remember her.

R217 Keep whispering that to yourself, stan.

R215 I think s/he meant that winning a BAFTA is not the same as winning an Oscar. Even if you just get an Oscar nomination, you're forever known/billed as 'Academy Award nominee.' Winning or being nominated for a BAFTA doesn't really have any significance in the grand scheme of things.

I don’t even know who I want to win or be nominated, but i KNOW i don’t want to see Glenn Close up there. She’s just always been so dour and condescending, and the movie just sounds dour and dreary.

I don’t know if Academy members will even pop it in. When IS one in the mood to watch mildew like that?

[QUOTE]She’s just always been so dour and condescending, and the movie just sounds dour and dreary.

So you admit that you haven't even seen it? Yeah, we'll just go ahead pass on your "opinion" then.

I have seen clips.

And I haven’t seen it because practically NO ONE’S seen it.

Which will continue - -

On Glenn Close rising early and late in the season:

She started awards season with a bang for The Wife, getting Oscar raves across the board.

She stuck it out through the fall festivals, which pretty much amounted to watching the fall of every other actress' chances against her.

She endured the B. Coop and Lady Gagz parade-float hype, which was eventually toppled by the 11th sequel of Halloween, of all things, which also showcased a career best turn by Jamie Lee Curtis, who deserves a nom over Lady Gagz.

Now, her only stiff competition is the amazing Olivia Colman in "The Favourite". While I would love if Coleman won, I don't think she has the combination of Oscar reviews, star power, narrative and overdue-ness that Close has.

She has a few tributes coming up and now is when SPC should/will begin their push for her vis a vis interviews, magazine spreads, career retrospectives, etc. Close is winning.

[quote] I loved her during the awards banquet when the light is shining on her while her husband gives the acceptance speech. Her utter disgust at what has taken place is very palpable

She was thinking of me! Bitch better thank me in her acceptance speech!

Glenn Close In The Wife would’ve struggled to win in 1994. And she still would’ve lost.

R225 You didn't even get nominated, though you tried with that river boat movie.

[quote] It would one of the more minor films to take home an Oscar in the leading category.

Don't I know it!

Here comes the Lange troll in 5....4...3...2...

R226 Oh, God! I forgot how close Streep was to getting an Oscar nod for THE RIVER WILD. She was nominated for a Golden Globe and the very first SAG.

:yawn: (see poll below)

Stop trying to take the focus of Glenn, haters.

Oops. Poll.

R217 I'm 25 and love Glenn, so false grandpa. And plenty people my age and younger recognize her from the guardians of the galaxy.

[quote]And plenty people my age and younger recognize her from the guardians of the galaxy.

Poor Glenm. What an insult.

Close is miscast in The Wife. It should have been Dianne Wiest.

GAGA will win.

R235 Yeah, best song.

R235 GoldDerby certainly has her ahead, but I think she will drop (perhaps not entirely) once the Oscar season officially commences in the new year. In 2011, I remember Michelle Williams (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN) had the most critics awards, followed by Tilda Swinton (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN), but once the new year began, it became all about Streep vs. Viola. Williams still got her Oscar nod and GG win, but Tilda was snubbed, even after being nominated for GG, SAG, and BAFTA. Having a great narrative is very helpful. I just don't see what Gaga's narrative is.

I think she will at least win for song and that may be the only thing she ever gets.

R237 She doesn't have a narrative relevant to winning Best Actress.

In fact. NO ACTRESS in Hollywood has a. narrative when compared to Glenn Close. That's just that.

And here's the bottom line:

Glenn Close is a 6 time Oscar nominee, 3 time Emmy winner and 3 time Tony winner who has proven herself to be one of the greats. At 70+ years, she's turned in one of the most - if not most - critically acclaimed performances of her career in a warmly received box office success.

How sycophants and loons are attempting to twist that narrative to work against Close is both perplexing and intriguing.

Maybe, R239, it’s just that her performance hasn’t been universally hailed and it’s in a particularly underwhelming film?

R240 None of her reviews mention her being deserving of an Oscar.

Most of Glenn's did.

On the Basis of Sex screen tonight in LA, too.

Glenn Close certainly isn't a legend like Fred Astaire was when the Academy nominated him for The Towering Inferno, and then pulled the rug out from under him.

And Deborah Kerr, nominated six times, deserving all six times, and never won till she got an honorary award. And likewise Bacall, iconic actress finally nominated and they gave the award to Juliette Binoche.

[quote]R239 Glenn Close is a 6 time Oscar nominee

Doesn’t that tell you all you need to know?

R232 I hope you haven't missed the joy of our beloved Glenn in Fatal Attraction, Dangerous Liaisons or The Paper?

R243 Listen, Faye, go spout your La La Land Inferno bullshit someplace else.

R244 Yes. That she's overdue.

[quote]And Deborah Kerr, nominated six times, deserving all six times, and never won till she got an honorary award.

I believe Close presented her with that special Oscar.

R247 the synchronistic perfection.

Who is this fucking Glenn Close loon? Is it THE Loon? Close will probably be nominated but, sorry, if the Academy can diss some of the great stars they haven't honored with a competitive Oscar (beyond Astaire, Kerr, and Bacall, there's also Cary Grant, Robert Mitchum, and Greta Garbo), then they don't need to go out of their way to give one to Close if they don't want to.

There's plenty of time for her to get an honorary award in ten years or so.

And Hitchcock! Nominated, but not a winner!

R249 Are you a Trump supporter?

You type like one.

[quote]if the Academy can diss some of the great stars they haven't honored with a competitive Oscar (beyond Astaire, Kerr, and Bacall, there's also Cary Grant, Robert Mitchum, and Greta Garbo), then they don't need to go out of their way to give one to Close if they don't want to.

You do realize that the Academy membership is not the same today as when those people were nominated? In fact, one could argue that today's Academy is more sentimental.

R250 it would be perfect for Amy Adams to present her with the Oscar for Best Actress next year.

No, hon. Couldn't be further from a Trump supporter. And if you're THE Loon, fuck off with your Glenn overkill, Matt. That's always your problem. You never know when to stop, and you make people hate you.

By the way, got your tickets for "Mary Poppins Returns" yet?

Did even one single person see my film?

Julianne Moore, that is

You won for one of the worse films ever, Julianne. No one's wanted to see your movies since then.

R255 You're sounding more Trumpian by the post. Just as unhinged, too.

Go sit in the corner.

STILL ALICE was a hit for Julianne Moore. Seriously. It had a production budget of $5 million and grossed a total of $43 million ($18 million stateside, $25 million overseas).

:sigh:

[quote]R260 STILL ALICE was a hit for Julianne Moore. Seriously, it had a production budget of $5 million and grossed a total of $43 million ($18 million stateside, $25 million overseas).

How does Glennie’s current downer compare so far....divided by # of theaters, etc?

Is it on track for the same?

Here’s the box office for “The Wife,” including foreign. It’s at $7.5 domestic, and about that much foreign (it’s listed by country, but not totaled).

Incidentally, I did see a For Your Consideration ad for the movie online today. They’re pushing Glenn, Pryce in Supporting and the Screenplay, which are the movie’s only real shots. It’s the first FYC I’ve seen this year, so SPC is going for it.

R239 her hear, she deserves it and will get it.

R243 you're an idiot - Fred Astaire was no serious actor, you have no clue about Glenn's 40-year stellar career. And Lauren Bacall may have become something of a legend due to association with the greats but she herself was never considered great. That nomination for the awful Barbara vehicle was her sole nomination.

R244 Meryl has 21 nominations and lost 18 of them, it doesn't negate the respect her performances clearly get. The fact Glenn lost her nominations means nothing.

Shut up idiots.

The Wife has grossed $14 million + worldwide.

Glenn Close is winning the Oscar, worldwide.

Box office gross is never an indication of whom will win though, the academy doesn't give a shit about box office, they care about the performance and the acting. Glenn should win however.

R266 box office helps a great deal. How do you think Sandra Bullock won? Or Paltrow? Or Swank #2? etc.

Also, having a 'banner year' (i.e., two or more hits in a single year). That's how Grace Kelly won way back when.

Did you guys hear that Viggo is going around screaming the N-word?

[quote] STILL ALICE was a hit for Julianne Moore. Seriously. It had a production budget of $5 million and grossed a total of $43 million ($18 million stateside, $25 million overseas).

Oh, honey, if you think that the production budget being $5m means all the overage is gravy for the distribution company and the producers, think again. How do you figure a movie w/ a $5m budget that starred Julianne Moore, Alec Baldwin and Kristen Stewart got made for $5m? Back end deals. I'm sure they saw a tiny profit, even after the P&A costs and having to pay off those actors for appearing in this dreck, but let's not fool ourselves that this was the next My Big Fat Greek Wedding.

Glenn isn't winning this year, sorry. And it's because of all the new blood in the Academy who not only have a voting agenda, but couldn't sit still for five minutes to watch The Wife. All these new members can't sit still for anyone. I'm sure they just mark whatever name is trendy or a minority. "Awww, my man Denzel up for an award? Coo, Coo. I got chew, brutha."

R270. I'm not saying you're wrong. But who is gonna beat Glenn? Gaga? It's very rare for one movie to to take both leads to wing and I'm pretty certain Cooper is as close to a lock as anyone. The last was Slience of the Lambs which was widely considered an artistic triumph which ASIB is not quite at that level. Olivia Coleman seems too unknown, MCCarthy isn't necessarily consider a real actor. And both Roberts and Kidman have already won. I'm not sure who you suspect may take it. The actress in Roma is said to be supremely good but it's a foreign film. I'm not being caustic. Just curious who you think is gonna win this thing. Coleman?

[quote]MCCarthy isn't necessarily consider a real actor.

What an incredibly stupid comment. You have no proof that she’s not considered a real actor, just the opposite, in fact. Have you even seen her movie, or read the reviews? She’s getting raves. She often gets raves, but this time it’s not for a comedy. She’s quite wonderful in the role, as her reviews attest.

If you know your Oscar history, then you know there are plenty of examples of unknown actors (like Coleman) getting nominated and winnng, of foreign actors (like Yalitza Aparicio) getting nominated and winning, or “comedy” actors (like Melissa McCarthy, already a veteran nominee) winning in meatier roles. There are also “already won” actors who nevertheless won again (see Swank, Hilary).

There are plenty of ”he’s/she’s ‘due’” actors who’ve won, but also plenty who were “due” who didn’t win.

I wouldn’t bet money on any of the names floating around yet. As for Glenn, she will have a harder row to hoe if she doesn’t win any critics’ awards, even harder without SAG or a Golden Globe.

Right now I think Gaga is the front runner. But I'll also tell you something else about The Wife. The Academy this year decided to streamline mailers for the studios by using three different companies to do the mailings for them. So instead of each studio sending their films directly to us, we get them all from these three services. Well, I recently moved, but well before the mailers began. I changed my address w/ the Academy immediately but have had no end of problems this season because the Academy fucked up and sent an outdated list to the three services. One of the movies I never received was The Wife. Called the Academy and they gave me an email for the company who sent it out, only the email doesn't work. So unless I go see The Wife at a screening (unlikely), I won't be seeing it. And if it happened to me, you can bet it will happen to others and with other films. (It happened to me with three other early movies but I was able to track them down through another of the companies and get them re-sent.)

But that's just an added snafu. Glenn Close's narrative just isn't breaking through the way she and her team had hoped. I don't think anyone cares that she may be overdue. I think TV and theater have diluted her to the point that she just doesn't register much anymore, especially to the numbers of new recruits who can't even spell Dangerous Liaisons, let alone know it was a movie.

And what's wrong with NOT knowing who the front runner of an award is four months before it's given out, three months before anyone is even nominated? Maybe this year there isn't one. But Glenn has shot her proverbial wad with The Wife and it's going to take a lot of uphill climbing and sweat for her team to get anyone to start echoing their claims of front runner and overdue, especially when it's already peaked far too early.

[quote]I'm sure they just mark whatever name is trendy or a minority. "Awww, my man Denzel up for an award? Coo, Coo. I got chew, brutha."

LOL! Black people really are very tribal (i.e., got each other's back). Tracy Morgan made a joke about that at the recent Emmys. . You don't have to look further than the OJ case. How else do you explain how Leslie Jones got an inexplicable second consecutive nomination? These awards of merit are going to be more than ever a popularity contest with quotas.

R272 I know my Oscar history just fine. Roberto Bengini won for a foreign film that was actually quite the phenomenon. And Pervert Whalestein behind it. And Marion Cottiellard winning for La Vie En Rose a few years later. Yet before that actors in foreign films hadn't won for DECADES. Yes they got nominated but never won until 1998 after Sofia Loren decades before. And Melissa Mcarthy is still considered the raunchy tiresome comedian who shit in a sink in the only other movie she's been nominated for. No, I don't know anyone who thinks she's a serious fucking actor to beat a respected actor who has never won. Yes, newbies win here and there but it's usually on some elevated level their film takes on. I've not seen that for The Favourite just yet. I'm not saying it won't happen but I was asking what the poster which may or not be you would have for assuming that an overdue respected actor would be passed over. After seeing Julianne Moore win for a Lifetime movie I assume the respected over due actor has a bit of an upper hand. You are obviously triggered for whatever horse you think you have in this race. I'm also pretty damn sure that Viola Davis, Julia Roberts and Nicole Kidman will win a second Oscar before McCarthy and Gaga ever get first.

[quote]After seeing Julianne Moore win for a Lifetime movie I assume the respected over due actor has a bit of an upper hand.

To be fair, Moore won the year before Jada and the Academy shakeup. The membership has changed drastically since then.

Why aren't I listed? And for that matter Glenn. Her character was clearly supporting.

Ugh. Who’s the brutally honest and lost yo his own ass Academy member stinking up this thread? Let us have our fun. Not interested in your 1st world problems and humourless snark. I hate members of awards bodies who refuse to actually go to the cinema and support the industry, complaining about their screeners. You cretins always wait until the end of the year to see anything and then want everyone to feel sorry for you - you should’ve been going to the cinema all year, seeing these films with real audiences.

Plus, you clearly have no taste. Spare us your jaundiced view and crap opinions. If your so-called friends didn’t think you were so boring you wouldn’t be posting here. Fuck off with your screener problems.

Glenn's desperate attempt to gain a nom has made her the laughing stock at Hollywood parties. Not that those same folk love Lady Gaga, but seriously - a 25 year old skinhead loving freak is not going to be swayed by Glenn Close and her sad sack act.

I think the fact that the distributor withheld The Wife for a year - The Wife! - makes it seem like old news. They should’ve competed last year. Doesn’t mean she would’ve won but it least the campaign would’ve had more integrity. Now it just sends the message that they think last year’s leftovers are better than anything this year has to offer and that this year has to be Glenn’s year as if they’ve chosen it for her. It’s not that great a movie. Wouldn’t be surprised if she was snubbed.

[quote] And Melissa Mcarthy is still considered the raunchy tiresome comedian who shit in a sink

Only by you, Fatty Matty. Only by you. In the many years since, she's become a major movie star, and is undoubtedly more known at this point, comedy wise, for her many appearances as Sean Spicer on SNL. She is always praised for her performances. In the case of "Can You Forgive Me?", praised extravagantly, more so than Glenn has been for The Wife.

[quote]On Glenn Close rising early and late in the season:

[quote]She started awards season with a bang for The Wife, getting Oscar raves across the board.

[quote]She stuck it out through the fall festivals, which pretty much amounted to watching the fall of every other actress' chances against her.

[quote]She endured the B. Coop and Lady Gagz parade-float hype, which was eventually toppled by the 11th sequel of Halloween, of all things, which also showcased a career best turn by Jamie Lee Curtis, who deserves a nom over Lady Gagz.

[quote]Now, her only stiff competition is the amazing Olivia Colman in "The Favourite". While I would love if Coleman won, I don't think she has the combination of Oscar reviews, star power, narrative and overdue-ness that Close has.

[quote]She has a few tributes coming up and now is when SPC should/will begin their push for her vis a vis interviews, magazine spreads, career retrospectives, etc. Close is winning.

Such exquisite truth.

Cue the hater troll who accuses every artist who threatens the relevance of his faves with CAPITALIZATIONS.

Matty is talking to itself all over this thread!

[QUOTE] It's very rare for one movie to to take both leads to wing and I'm pretty certain Cooper is as close to a lock as anyone. The last was Slience of the Lambs which was widely considered an artistic triumph which ASIB is not quite at that level.

R271 is profoundly stupid and doesn't really know what it's talking about.

Oh, and the last film to win both lead acting Oscars was As Good As It Gets in 1997, not The Silence of the Lambs.

How's dearest G still doing.

I love that she never gives up, despite the fact she really ought to.

R268 fake news?

Actually, R286, it apparently did happen. How profoundly stupid of him to use the full word in public. I bet he just cost himself a Best Actor nomination.

Seventh time's a charm!

Talk about fake outrage! R268 and R288 made it sound like he pulled a Michael Richards, but he was merely using it within the context of discussing the film. How are we supposed to fight racism if we can't be honest about it? Pick your battles, guys.

There's really no circumstance in which a white person should utter the full N-word. That's not being PC. It's having a functioning brain, R289.

One year ago this month, the National Board of Review announced their picks for the best of 2017. Of the winners in the six major categories (Picture, Director, Acting x 4), none went on to win the Oscar, although five of them received nominations.

Best Picture: The Post (nominated for Oscar, did not win)

Best Director: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (nominated for Oscar, did not win)

Best Actor: Tom Hanks, The Post (not nominated for Oscar)

Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Post (nominated for Oscar, did not win)

Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (nominated for Oscar, did not win)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (nominated for Oscar, did not win)

R290 whatever. Choose your battles wisely. Go after the people who really mean it. Otherwise, you just hurt your cause when allies become afraid to get involved. The left always eats their own.

Casting a vote for Glenn is the same as throwing it away.

God, you can tell it's the same idiot knocking Close in this thread. He types like Dump and can come up with no better arguments than: GLENN IS OLD AND NOBUDY CAREZ AND THA YOUNG PEEPLE WON'T VOTE FOR HER AND SHE'S NOT BETTER THAN ANYBDY!kja~!

Jesus.

Glenn Close is winning. Take some meds and move on.

Actually it isn't the same person. But it's the same loon who keeps defending her. You can tell by how unhinged he is.

So someone isn’t a big fan of Glumm Close, and suddenly they’re Trump?

A Netflix exec was fired for using the n-word in basically the same context. We must not be hypocritical simply because Viggo is on our side and hot. He’s toast and if we’re being honest, he deserves to be. It matters not that he has a black niece. In fact it makes his usage worse. Ryan Gosling is now suddenly back in the Best Actor race.

They should make a Worst Picture category. It would add some fun to the evening and I actually think people would still want the award because they'd be an Oscar winner. I'd imagine it would be a good sport type category with people showing up like they do at the Razzies.

I'll happily vote for Viggo now. That's a whole lot of bullshit to be outraged at. Anyone with a scintilla of intelligence understood what he was saying.

The only unhinged posters on here are the Lady Gagz delusionists and the G haters.

[quote]We must not be hypocritical simply because Viggo is on our side and hot.

R297 this tells me that you're very far left, which means you probably see things in black-and-white terms (no pun intended). People on the far left (or far right, for that matter) are not good at compromise or seeing that one size doesn't fit all. For example, those on the far right will group a poor person who stole food with other more dangerous criminals; those on the far left, in this instance, are willing to condemn Viggo with other white nationalists who use the term in anger/hatred/violence.

Glennie does a great interview here. The Oscar talk starts around 17:40. She seem very warm and down to earth

I think Glenn’s next logical step is directing. She should develop a TV miniseries about when she was raised in a cult. Her daughter can play the mom.

Glenn is “warm”? Yeah, right.

I think the problem is Glenn Close doesn’t have a very distinct personality. She’s good at playing steely bitches, but when she isn’t doing that, she’s somewhat bland.

Any news on the late breaking contenders? I think we’re all assuming “Mary, Queen of Scots” is DOA, but any word on “Vice” or the non-festival films?

Of course she does, R302. She was with Up With People!

Is Amy Adams going to be in lead or supporting this year? Because if Vice is a good as many say it is, and she's good, she could be the main competitor for Gaga this year, rather than Glenn whose chances seem to be waning.

And she fits the respected and overdue bill almost as much as Glenn does.

Going to SAG nominating committee screening ot Mary, Queen of Scots on Sunday in NYC.

R308, Adams will most likely be a leading Best Actress contender in 2020 for her role in The Woman in the Window. It’s a doozy.

I've heard Viggo Mortensen does blackface to amuse his friends.

R284 you got me. You remebered one terrible underserved instance where it happened after Silence. Yet that's only the third time since It Happened One Night. Your hysterics make it seem so common. No Gaga Stan it will not happen again this year.

I'm guessing the Moolissa Macarthy troll is pushing maximum density too. Plus size poster

[quote] you got me. You remebered one terrible underserved instance where it happened after Silence. Yet that's only the third time since It Happened One Night.

Actually, it happened six times after It Happened One Night.

You poor thing, you should really just give up before you embarrass yourself further.

Touché

Dunaway-Finch Hepburn-Fonda Fonda-Voight

My bad.

R311 doesn’t know Oscar history at all. Honey, do yourself a favor and purchase a copy of Damien Bona’s “Inside Oscar.” You’re very uninformed. It doesn’t matter if you think certain Oscarsnin the past were “undeserved.” That dowsn’t Mean you get to wipe them out of history and statistics (of which, again, you’re severely deprived of knowledge).

[quote] I think we’re all assuming “Mary, Queen of Scots” is DOA,

Why are we assuming that?

So far, BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY has grossed a total of $179 million ($69 stateside, $110 worldwide). And it's only on its second weekend. What are the chances of Mali Ramek being nominated now? He adds some diversity, not that that should be the sole reason, but I'm taking everything into account, including good notices for his performance, even if the film got mixed reviews.

[quote]but I'm taking everything into account, including good notices for his performance

That should've been in full "I'm taking everything into account, including box office and good notices for his performance."

I nominate R311 for a public stoning for trying to school us with his bad Oscar trivia! Lurk and learn, sistah. Lurk and learn.

Given the terrible script, I don’t think Malek’s performance can be seen as much more than karaoke. The script doesn’t allow much more than that. Plus, the teeth.

The success of the film speaks more to the enduring popularity of Queen, not so much the ascendence of Malik. Even people who enjoy the film say it’s because the music is great.

The huge box office probably helps, R317, but the Oscars have trended away from awarding movies with really mixed receptions, even if they made a ton of money. I think the last two movies to get actors nominated with mediocre Metacritic scores were “Roman Israel, Esq.” and “The Judge,” and let’s face it: both were pure category fillers meant to honor legendary actors, not their actual performances.

And if you’re going to say “But movies that suck get Oscar nominations all the time,” you would be right in terms of taste, but not in terms of Metacritic scores. Even “Les Miserables” and “The Danish Girl” have overall positive ratings, as unbelievable as it sounds, which means Tom Hooper must have the most wide-ranging file of blackmail material since J. Edgar Hoover.

R308, link to good reviews of Vice? I don’t think it’s been screened yet. Despite the anticipation for it here, there’s still a lot of scepticism that anyone actually wants to pay money to see a film about, erm, Dick Cheney. Is Bale even considered box office outside of a Batman movie? Still think it’s a stretch.

The box office success of BR doesn’t change the fact that it’s a crap film. Nobody has put Malek in the same league as Spacek, Bassett or Witherspoon/Phoenix.

I don’t think Bale wasever considered box office outside Batman, R322, and that seems intentional. Apart from the Nolan movies, his last attempt at a blockbuster was almost a decade ago. Still, his critical hits have done pretty well (Fighter, Hustle, Big Short), even if he can’t take sole credit for their success.

R308, Adams will go supporting I think.

Pity they didn't give Angela Lansbury more to do on Mary Poppins. I'm sure it would have been a thrill go see her nominated again.

R323 but in this day and age diversity matters a lot, so he could still sneak in for being 'Egyptian,' especially when you take box office into account.

Malek will definitely get nods for GG (Musical/Comedy) and BAFTA (because British subject), which will help his chances in the long run.

I disagree about the BAFTA nod. Though BR has been a resounding success here so you never know.

Bale is still considered box office because he does very well internationally (and, as mentioned earlier, his films here outside of Batman also do well enough to keep him sought after).

Why is A Star is Born not going musical category for the Globes. Is the drama category considered more prestigious?

THE IRON LADY was a piece of shit, but it was a box office hit and was BAFTA-nominated for Best Actress, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay! BH and Malek will definitely get in there.

Sorry, meant BR, not BH.

Yes, R331, it is. Plus all the music is diegetic so it’s presenting as a drama.

R332, you’ve created a false equivalency of Rami Malek being equivalent to Meryl Streep. (Or even Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury being the equivalent to Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher.)

R334 Sissy Spacek, Joaquin Phoenix, and Reese Witherspoon were nominated in the Musical/Comedy category.

R336 precisely. It isn't usual that a movie musical goes drama at the Globes.

R337 Marion Cotillard (PIAF) was also placed in the Musical/Comedy category. Even Michelle Williams for the Marilyn biopic even though she only sang two or three songs, but they were performance pieces.

The only time I can think of off-hand when someone with a singing role was placed in Drama was in '89 when Michelle Pfeiffer was nominated in the Drama category for THE FABULOUS BAKER BOYS. Meanwhile, Jessica Tandy (DRIVING MISS DAISY) was put in Musical/Comedy. They both won their respective categories, but I thought it should've been the other way around.

[quote]Is Bale even considered box office outside of a Batman movie? Still think it’s a stretch.

Like Day Lewis, Bale is that rare performer who’s considered “an actor’s actor”. That status amongst his peers helps him more than box office does.

Can Whishaw get a supporting nod for his work in Mary Poppins film?

Also, the reference to Spacek et al was for the Oscars. We’re primarily talking about the Oscars here.

R335 I was not comparing Streep/Malek nor Freddy/Thatcher, just pointing out that the Brits are biased about British films/subjects, especially when they do well at the box office.

Emma stone is getting nominated for sure, she’s so good in The Favourite!

Is there a reason why "The Favourite" has not been changed to the American spelling in the US?

R344 because it’s a British movie and the world doesn’t revolve around America?

Maybe it's just a stylized thing in the US, because the film/story is very British.

I hope its Olivia vs Glenn.

But more than anything R342, the Brits are biased towards what everyone else thinks will be nominated for the Oscars. BAFTA nominations for Bening & Bell last year were a rare exception and probably had a lot to do with Barbara Broccoli being a producer on that film. I still can’t believe BAFTA didn’t award Naomie Harris for Moonlight in 2017 and completely snubbed Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner in 2014 - there is no home court advantage at the BAFTAs because they desperately want to be seen as relevant to the U.S. awards season.

I thought I read that BR is campaigning as a Drama for the GGs unless the HFPA decides otherwise - and he’ll have to do better than a Musical/Comedy GG nom to get a BAFTA nomination. He’ll have to get at least a SAG nomination. I think SAG is more likely to embrace John David Washington for BlackKklansman before Malik in BR.

[quote]I still can’t believe BAFTA didn’t award Naomie Harris for Moonlight in 2017 and completely snubbed Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner in 2014

They still nominated Harris, and MR. TURNER was a box office dud. That's my point. BR is a box office smash and is about a British celebrity. Malek will get a BAFTA nod.

Mr. Turner was not a box office dud in Britain and was nominated for 4 BAFTAs (and 4 Oscars). Spall won at Cannes, The European Film Awards, London Film Critics Circle, British Independent, NYFCC and NSC.

Malek isn’t even British.

MR. TURNER only grossed £7 million ($9 million) in the UK and it had a production budget of £8 million ($10 million).

[quote]Malek isn’t even British.

But he plays one on TV. Well, the cinema.

R351, maybe you're unfamiliar with the UK but we're a small island nation in the channel. £7M for a speciality film at the box office is very good. £10M for any British film at the UK box office is a considerable hit.

It's too bad the Supporting Actor choices seem already decided. While the film is getting moxed reviews, Armie Hammer seems to be getting good reviews for his performance in OTBOS. I have liked his past few performances lately in STBY, and CMBYN so it would've been nice to see him get a nod.

R354 what are the SA choices?

Seems like Ali, Grant, Chalamet, and Elliot are a total lock. 5th spot might depend on a few more pics being released but I have heard Rockwell again for Vice and possibly Michael B Jordanfor BP. On a side note, why is Vice being released on Xmas? Odd choice.

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell/Steve Carell - Vice

Russell Crowe - Boy Erased

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Jonathan Pryce, The Wife

Bryan Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

I would love it if Brian Tyree Henry were nominated (for If Beale Street Could Talk). It’s a small role but he really knocks it out of the park and thematically ties a lot of the film together in a single scene.

Crowe is out of contention, he hasn't gotten the notices. Kaluuya has little to do in Widows except look mean - that film is too crowded for any real standouts to emerge. Wouldn't it be hilarious if Pryce got nominated and Glenn Close didn't? I think the campaign is too centred on Close for anyone else to benefit. I'd hope Bryan Tyree Henry would get in before the chinless charisma-vacuum that is Michael B. Jordan. Why do they keep talking about him for Black Panther? He didn't do anything extraordinary - what scene are they referring to?

Not a fan of Michael B. Jordan he's not even handsome and he's a closet case

Does anyone think Viggo's misstep this week, which has now created distance between him and Ali, will hurt Green Book? Won't they be asked about it endlessly now while they're promoting it?

R359 Crowe is out of contention, he hasn't gotten the notices.

Great! overrated actor and a shitty human being

[quote]Michael B. Jordan. Why do they keep talking about him for Black Panther? He didn't do anything extraordinary - what scene are they referring to?

The film was a massive smash, and they'll probably need to fill quotas. A nod for him kills two birds with one stone -- a minority actor AND a hit film that many people watched (i.e., those people may tune in, hopefully).

Just saw Suspiria today. It has my vote for worst film of the year.

R364 Details, please. I had a feeling it wouldn't be good. I love the original and adore Tilda, too, so I'm a bit bummed.

R359, around here, they're probably just talking about any shirtless scene.

It's a complete mess. Not that I wanted a slavish remake but it basically takes the character names and the germ of the idea and makes it into two and a half hours of ponderous claptrap. It meanders for all but the final 20 minutes and gives us a climax that makes no sense and is barely connected to the rest of the movie.

There's nothing scary or chilling or nerve wracking about the film. I understand horror rarely is scary, but this film didn't even try to be anything but a drama. I suppose not an unpardonable sin. But it was just straight up boring. I checked out well before the end and I just was biding my time until it ended. That is the unpardonable sin.

No one really impresses in the performances, though I will say I did like Mia Goth a lot. I thought she was some joke who glommed onto Shia LeBeouf a while back, but she's definitely talented.

Also, the film is poorly lit and recorded even worse. I had a lot of trouble hearing the actors, especially during the climax, and when the scenes were dark, they were barely visible. I know the original Suspiria was a darkly lit film, but this one just looked like they didn't know what they were doing. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and consider that perhaps the projection booth was improperly calibrated because I can't imagine they would have released something so ineptly lit.

I'm now three strikes with Guadagnino. I've been bored silly by A Bigger Splash, CMBYN and Suspiria. Won't bother giving him another chance. If he's directed it, I'll pass.

R367 Thanks for replying! I've read similar criticism from others.

It's a shame, too, because the original is so atmospheric, scary, colorful and beautifully Gothic.

He set out to reinvent it when he should've paid homage to it.

I am honestly shocked anyone thinks THE WIFE will get anything beyond a courtesy nomination. It was beyond boring and tedious, with the twist obvious from the moon. Glenn looks terrible and the first scene with her getting finger-fucked will turn off 99% of voters. It was a ludicrous opening. I found Pryce to be far more compelling and award-worthy than Glenn, but even then the film is so slight it does not really matter. You can hate Gaga, but her performance is truly tremendous. Glenn is Glenn. Meh.

R369 G really threatens you, huh? lolz.

So, who's your fave? M, Gaga or Faye?

Any bets on whether Gaga parlay her loss of Malibu manse, letter from David Bowie and Michael Jackson memorabilia into her campaign?

Gaga better go ALL IN, because you know Glumm Close will be embarrassing herself further by ramping up her (self funded) campaign. She’ll use every trick in the book to guilt Academy members into at least nominating her.

Jesus! The Gaga Troll clearly is triggered. Are you a Little Monster? How old are you?

G is barely campaigning, you nut.

SPC is largely doing the work for her - buying the Hollywood Film Award, getting her tributes at festivals, etc.

R373, sadly I think the Glenn haters aren’t Gaga fans, they’re M posters who don’t want to give up their stale wisecracks if Close actually wins.

Relax, M, you can do your tired shtick about Sigourney or Saoirse or Amy Adams once Glenn Close gets an Oscar. Hell, start ragging on Elle Fanning, since it’s all the same bad jokes no matter who the target is.

R376 that actually makes sense, lol.

Will Michael B Jordan get an Oscar nomination for Creed 2 to make up for last time?

What do you mean, 'make up for last time' - ? He was ok in Creed I, but nothing that spectacular to warrant a lead actor nom.

Fruitvale Station was another story imo. But he's young so he'll have his time.

“Creed 2” doesn’t have Ryan Coogler behind it, so I don’t think it’ll be as successful (and even if it was far better than anyone expected, “Creed” wasn’t that great to begin with). It might bolster his chances for Supporting Actor, at best.

As someone who is mostly indifferent to “Black Panther,” I’m totally fine with Jordan getting nominated for that movie, especially having seen some of his top competitors. And you’re right, R379, he was great in “Fruitvale Station.” So was Octavia Spencer, who wa better in that than in some of her nominated roles.

Glenn Close isn’t winning for some shit film. Julianne Moore could but she’s pretty. No way Glenn can get enough votes.

I wonder who will style Close for her win.

RuPaul, perhaps?

I'm not a Glenn hater nor a little monster. But of the two performances, I thought Gaga's was better. I actually LOVE close. I have yet to see McCarthy or Colman's performances. But between Glenn or Gaga? Gaga.

I walked out of A Star Is Born. In its defense, I was feeling quite under the weather. But the movie didn't help matters. Those ridiculous, sustained and unflattering close-ups were straight out of film school. And Gaga's Noo Yawk affect (yes, I know she's a New Yorker) were hard to watch. Does she get better as the film progresses?

If the Academy can bypass Isabelle Huppert for Emma Stone, I’m sure they bypass Glenn Close again. They’ve certainly had a lot of practice.

Glenn is firmly in the Academy’s friend zone.

No, r385, the first 3rd of the film is comparatively good but it rapidly deteriorates after she marries Jack. It gets worse and worse and the last scene was aiming for something exultant musically, like TITANIC or THE BODYGUARD but ironically Gaga's flaws as a singer and the poor quality of the song kills it.

Actually R388, I think it’s Director Cooper’s impulse to go “Remember me? I just died? This film is all about my character?” that kills it.

I thought that Gaga should have sung the song that plays over the closing credits at the end instead of the song she did sing. It’s better.

So happy for my friend Glennie with her first win, now that she's a septuagenarian. Perhaps this will finally give her career the boost it's always needed.

R386 that was Isabelle's first and only Oscar nod; she didn't have the 'overdue' narrative that Glenn does. This would be Close's 7th nomination! Only two other actresses have gone 0-6 -- Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter. I think the Academy is too sentimental nowadays to let her go home a loser again.

I think Glenn Close’s overdue narrative will carry her through to a win. She’s obviously very respected within the Academy and has worked with many of its members. I don’t see Michael Douglas, for example, thinking, “Hmmm...should I vote for Glenn or Gaga?”

This is something I’ve posted on DL before, but my friend was moving into Glenn Close’s old apartment in NYC in the early 2000s and was doing a walkthrough with her roommate who was a family friend of Glenn’s. The knife that Alex Forrest used at the end of “Fatal Attraction” was proudly stuck up on the kitchen wall on a magnetic strip. This detail kind of made me love her.

Plus, Kerr and Ritter got all six of theirs during the span of a decade; Close's first nomination was in 1982. That's closer to 40 years, which makes it seem even worse! But it could also work to her advantage, since it proves that she has sustained her career all these decades. They might want to reward that, too.

R392, one actress did earn seven nominations without a win. Geraldine Page lost all of her nominations from “Hondo” from 1953 to “The Pope of Greenwich Village” from 1984, even though she kept earning them relatively consistently over those 31 years.

She did win on her final nomination a year later. And then she died a year after that.

Geraldine Page should have won in 1978 for Interiors.

R388 nails it. The movie loses it's way iafter the build up to her stardom. Those silly rehearsal scenes and forced friction between the characters were laughable. And as much as I love Sam Elliott I thought his character and his dialogue were eye rolling. Seemed very unnatural. I thought Andrew Dice Clay was far more effective in his role.

I loved Clay’s driver friends. That whole milieu felt totally authentic to me.

Was watching SNL last night, and saw a commercial for A Private War, and it mentioned the NYT said Rosamund Pike was now a lock for an nomination. Is she now to be taken seriously as a potential nominee, or is it just movie hype?

It's movie hype. Aviron couldn't even buy a People's Choice award.

[quote]R392 I think the Academy is too sentimental nowadays to let her go home a loser again.

The Academy doesn’t have just one type of member any more. Often a winner like Emma Stone emerges because the votes are split all over the place.

Close’s chances aren’t as strong now as they were in her heyday, before she turned to television. The Oscars are as much an industry popularity contest as anything else...and Close has never been a super popular person.

It’s not like she’s actively disliked, it’s just that there are so many more interesting people around, with more personality. Above all, Hollywood hates to be BORED.

[quote]Often a winner like Emma Stone emerges because the votes are split all over the place.

Huh? Stone was always the clear favorite in the category, and her win was the type that often prevails in Best Actress. What votes, exactly, were split allowing her to win?

[quote]It’s not like she’s actively disliked, it’s just that there are so many more interesting people around, with more personality. Above all, Hollywood hates to be BORED.

Where do you even get this? Seriously?

6 Oscar nominations, 3 Emmys and 3 Tonys and she's "never been popular"?

I smell a stan of someone else.

I saw Glenn in The Wife and if she wins its very deserved. She did great, subtle work that really only work if you pay attention. She's brilliant.

Just out of Mary Queen of Scots (no comma, guys) SAG screening. Engrossing, beautifully shot film. Ronan is excellent (damn, that bitch can hold the screen with just a gaze) but it was Robbie who impressed me the most, especially in their one scene together towards the end. The costumes and hair/make-up are out of this world (Elizabeth’s poxy face is a particular triumph). I suspect the blatant color blind casting of the court will be an issue, although Adrian Lester is always good and Gemma Chan is fucking gorgeous. It did bug me when David Tennant (in Rasputin beard) was ranting and raving in a small Scottish town hall and at least ten of the townspeople were black. Uh uh. Anyway, I expect Ronan to get a slot for Best Actress and Robbie to get a slot for Best Supporting Actress. And the costume and make-up/hair designers will probably win the damn thing.

Glenn Close's clit is already suctioncupped onto the head of the Best Actress Oscar. It's hers.

[quote]I suspect the blatant color blind casting of the court will be an issue,

[quote]It did bug me when David Tennant (in Rasputin beard) was ranting and raving in a small Scottish town hall and at least ten of the townspeople were black. Uh uh.

They're doing it with film now? I know people want to be "woke" (or at least be seen as such), but color-blind casting doesn't always work, especially in historical pieces set in a specific time and place. But I'm willing to bet this probably has to do with the quotas that BAFTA has instituted. Didn't they say that they won't consider any movie unless it's diverse?

Oh, right, R407. Maybe. I thought it was because the director (Josie Rourke) is from the theatre world over in the UK and they’ve so often broke ground with color blind casting, albeit often in a self-congratulatory sort of way.

I agree, color blind casting in historical pieces such as this doesn’t always work. I want to be transported to a time and place. I seriously doubt one of Mary’s ladies in waiting was mixed race and Elizabeth’s Ambassador to Scotland was black (Adrian Lester). And her chief lady in waiting was of Chinese descent (Gemma Chan). Those ten or so black townspeople really sort of pissed me off, though. That’s flagrantly inaccurate. Mary’s minstrel David Rizzio was, I assume, meant to be Italian but he’s played by a Puerto Rican. He was sort of cute, though, especially when he was diddling with Mary’s hubby Lord Darnley.

[quote]It did bug me when David Tennant (in Rasputin beard) was ranting and raving in a small Scottish town hall and at least ten of the townspeople were black. Uh uh.

Can't wait to see the new Martin Luther King biopic starring Leo DiCaprio. And, the remake of Amistad where all the slaves are white and all the lawyers are black. It's soooo woke!

[quote]Even Michelle Williams for the Marilyn biopic even though she only sang two or three songs

One song. She sang one song, the same little ballad that Marilyn sang in "The Prince and the Showgirl." It went into that category because it was judged a comedy, not a musical.

[quote]Glenn Close's clit is already suctioncupped onto the head of the Best Actress Oscar. It's hers.

She had better get it off there, then, or she'll lose her clit as well as the Oscar.

R410 she also opens the movie with a performance of "Heat Wave" and closes it with "That Old Black Magic."

Forgot to mention Brendan Coyle, who played boring Mr. Bates in Downton Abbey plays Lord Darnley’s father in this and with his facial hair he is one yummy daddy bear. The two young men who play Dudley and Darnley, Joe Alwyn and Jack Lowthen, are handsome but never show ass or peen and that’s a fucking shame.

Brenda from 227!

I think Robbie will be a serious threat in the Supporting Actress category. She’s THAT good. Ronan will probably be nominated without winning.

I saw the trailer for MQoS yesterday during Suspiria. You must have seen the film high. It looks like a total snore and Robbie can't handle the accent at all.

Bohemian rhapsody has made 35 million in the UK alone and climbing, will rami get a bafta nom?

Yikes! Just looked up BR on Box Office Mojo.. It was #2 this weekend in the US (after THE GRINCH movie) and grossed another $30 million. On its second weekend it has grossed $100 million stateside and $185 million overseas. Total = $285 million on a $52 million budget. No way Rami won't get a BAFTA or Oscar nod.

People like Queen.

Glenn's clit will never let go of the Oscar. It's hers all the way!

Bohemian is holding crazy overseas, It made 75 million on it's second week, a drop of around 15% if it continues like this it'll hit 500 million.

Glenn's clit is bohemian.

Glenn’s clit is poised to attack Hollywood.

It’s venemous.

R421 😂

Meant for R23

Glenn better REIN THAT CLIT IN. Or she’ll alienate even more voters.

The Capital Queen doth return.

Time to fry her brain some more.

R417, I agree that the trailer for MQoS is underwhelming and Robbie doesn’t come off all that great in it. She does just fine with the accent in the final product, though. Better than fine.

I've got this under control.

Studios won't be able to pull off these late contenders like "Vice" and "Mary Queen of Scots" next year. I suspect everything will have to start screening by the middle of November.

The fall and winter is traditionally when one releases serious movies. It’s tacky to begin campaigning before the yesr’s even over, like Glenn did.

R431 What year are you posting from?

Rami Malek will get a Golden Globe nod and ought to be happy with that because Bradley Cooper will win that category.

R433 wasn't there talk of Gaga going in the Drama category? One would assume that Cooper would, too.

R430 why not next year?

[quote] [R417], I agree that the trailer for MQoS is underwhelming and Robbie doesn’t come off all that great in it. She does just fine with the accent in the final product, though. Better than fine.

That makes zero sense. The trailer is made up of scenes from the final product, so if her accent sucks in the trailer, then clearly it sucks in the final product.

No one releases anything that might be Oscar worthy in the winter, r431, unless you’re referring to the one week of winter that occurs in December.

Honestly, if someone had told me that The Wife was a Hallmark Film I'd believe them. Close isn't winning for that drab effort. Olivia has it in the bag.

Glenn isn’t winning for a small, shit film like that and Olivia Colman? Hell no. Gaga will win it.

If Gaga is nominated for Oscar, it will kill Madonna.

R436, you obviously know zero about the film business. Quite often there are bits in the trailer that are NOT in the final product. Trailers are often put together hastily and rushed out. It’s a big mistake to judge a film (or performances) by a trailer.

[quote] [R436], you obviously know zero about the film business. Quite often there are bits in the trailer that are NOT in the final product. Trailers are often put together hastily and rushed out. It’s a big mistake to judge a film (or performances) by a trailer.

Oh, honey, you're grasping. You're wrong about this. Admit it. There's no shame.

Uhh, no, I’m not, R442. I’m IN the business and I doubt you are. And I’ve SEEN the film and you definitely haven’t. Will be back here to gloat when it comes out and all indications are that Robbie will get a nomination, bitch.

Industry filmustry.

My clit is winning the Oscar!

I'm sure you're in the business, R443. That popcorn won't pop itself.

Girls, girls, don't fight!

The making of the Mary, Queen of Scots trailer. True story.

Trailer cutter: Here's what we'll do. We'll swap out the actual scenes of period standing and talking for these cut scenes of period standing and talking.

Asst Trailer cutter: But those scenes aren't in the movie. And Margot's accent is really bad in them.

Trailer: Yes, but THESE scenes will get asses in the theater!

Asst. Trailer cutter: Okay, but I can't tell the difference between any of the scenes.

Trailer cutter: TRUST ME on this!!

I'm sure it happened exactly that way.

R405 is a troll. And also sounds like an idiot.

I saw the trailer for Mary, Queen of Scots and immediately added a "Don't bother" column to my awards season viewing list. It looked deeply boring and completely forced. I've seen this story done several times very memorably on stage (once w/ Janet McTeer in the title role). I don't need to be underwhelmed by this.

All the more reason, R440, to get behind Gaga.

Ugh, the Gaga obsessive is annoying.

Does Close do something strange with her clit in The Wife or is DL just having a moment?

I saw The Wife but I didn’t get that she was finger banged in the beginning, I thought Pryce was just straight up penetrating her. I did think, “Her vag would be a bit dry to just do that without any foreplay or lube...” But what do I know?

It kind of reminds me of those reactionaries who thought Leo was raped by a bear when they first saw The Revenant.

The judges/voters have to nominate on what is submitted, not past snubs or near misses. Glenn Close will not win. She'll get a nom, but Gaga will triumphantly accept the Oscar for what was an earth shattering performance. It won't even b CLOSE, pardon the pun.

R453, why don't you just go start a Gaga thread and masturbate while you post in it.

R453 sounds like a troll. Everyone and their mother knows that winning the Oscar isn't just about the performance. There are other factors (e.g., overdue, sentimentality, politics).

[quote]R452 I saw The Wife but I didn’t get that she was finger banged in the beginning, I thought Pryce was just straight up penetrating her. I did think, “Her vag would be a bit dry to just do that without any foreplay or lube...” But what do I know?

This is another way Glenn has alienated the Academy. The elders (her generation) are disgusted by what she’s forced on them.... and the newer members don’t like having her superannuated clit rubbed in their faces.

Just saw Will You Ever Forgive Me?

While I thoroughly enjoyed the film and McCarthy's performance, I can't see her beating out Glenn or Gaga. It was big enough and her character is essentially the exact same person from beginning to end - which I quite liked. But it's not necessarily an Oscar winning performance because of that.

I don't believe Gaga will win Best Actress. They'll give her Best Song, and that way she's a winner and can share in the triumph of the night.

But I also don't believe Glenn will win. They'll give her nothing and that way she's a loser as she always has been and can share in the joy of most nominations without a win.

So who do you think takes it, R458? I've seen Glenn, Gaga and now McCarthy. Gaga, to me, gave the best performance. Though I could probably make the case for each of those three. I assume Glenn will take it. I know Colman is a DL fav... Should be fun!

I saw “Widows” tonight, and the things I liked most about it were the aspects likely to keep it out of the Oscar race, but the parts I didn’t love are why it’ll probably be in the Best Picture mix, even though it’ll never win.

With the clusterfuck in Supporting Actress (Will “Vice” clinch it for Amy Adams? Which “Favourite” lady is really the favorite?), I would not be shocked if Elizabeth Debicki got a nomination. The movie asks her to do a lot of Oscar-friendly stuff, and the ending almost treats her as if she’s Davis’s co-lead, which is exactly what voters like for supporting performances.

R435 In 2020, the Oscars will be held on the 2nd Sunday in February. (I think it's Feb. 9, 2020.) That's 2-3 weeks earlier than usual. EVERYTHING will be moved up to accommodate. A movie will have to start screening by early to mid November given that time table.

And R441 is correct. Trailers are made months before the film is released and films might not be finished until weeks before the release date. That means alternate and deleted scenes/takes might make it in the trailer. It also means ADR and the final sound mix aren't finished.

Finding deleted scenes in trailers is common. That's how we know what the "Restoration" musical sequence from "The Wizard of Oz" is like - a brief clip from it is used in the trailer for the 1948 rerelease. An "Working Girl" famously included a very prominent scene in its trailer that was nowhere to be found when the movie was finally released. There are lots of other examples.

Olivia is winning this and very easily

R462, what was the Working Girl scene?

Three scenes by my count r464: the dialogue with Dukakis is different, and neither the static cling moment with Sigourney not the chat with Joan Cusack at the vanity just before Joan’s wedding are in the movie.

[quote]I saw “Widows” tonight, and the things I liked most about it were the aspects likely to keep it out of the Oscar race, but the parts I didn’t love are why it’ll probably be in the Best Picture mix, even though it’ll never win.

Could you elaborate?

The DEATH BECOMES HER trailer featured Tracey Ullman, who originally had a small supporting role but was eventually eliminated completely in the final product, as well as several scenes that didn't make it in the movie.

[quote] And [R441] is correct. Trailers are made months before the film is released and films might not be finished until weeks before the release date. That means alternate and deleted scenes/takes might make it in the trailer. It also means ADR and the final sound mix aren't finished.

I cut trailers and there is no hard and fast rule for when they get done. If you're talking about a blockbuster tent pile, then yes, they can be done with very little of the film actually shot because they are creating anticipation. Or one could make a trailer for a film that is starting its journey on the festival circuit before it even has distribution and things can get changed in the film once it's picked up. However in that case, the distributor usually has their own trailer(s) and TV spots (if they go that route) created.

But I never said the practiced was never done. And everyone arguing this point has not listened to the original poster who made this claim of alt footage in the MQoS trailer. He's saying Margot's Oscar worthy and her accent is flawless. In EVERY clip of her in the trailer, her accent is AWFUL, which means one of two things- he's full of shit (in a myriad of ways) or they hired someone to pull a Glenn Close on Robbie's Andie MacDowell for the film (which I highly doubt). Her accent in the trailer is consistently shit. And she's in more than half the scenes in the trailer.

Let's say it took Robbie a month to get the accent down. And let's say they had money to burn and just decided to reshoot those scenes instead of having Robbie come in and loop everything once she figured out how to speak properly. Why would a studio want to use ALL those scenes of Robbie sucking in something that was meant to sell the piece when they could just as easily subbed in the proper footage?

You're taking an ocean voyage just to prove your theory.

Pardon me. practice, not practiced. ^^

Apart from this finger banging y'all keep going on about, Glenn doesn't, by any chance, pull those lovely pert tits out again? Or shoot us a glance of her smooth butt?

I always remember one small snippet of a scene from the My Best Friend’s Wedding trailer where Julia Roberts is practicing excuses for not being able to make it to the wedding and one of them is that she has now transitioned and is a man. Never made it into the final product (thankfully so, Julia et al. might think now).

I also can recall the Tom Hanks film BIG being called “Big Time” (complete with Peter Gabriel singling “Big Time”) in an early trailer I saw in the theater.

Gaga begins her Oscar campaign!

Good for darling Lady Gaga. A real humanitarian. Conversely, I hear Glenn visited the restroom this morning in reflection of the quality of her little film.

I actually really loved the level of disgust that Glenn exhibited in the final scenes of The Wife. Jonathan Pryce’s character is just such an asshole that it felt very satisfying to me as a viewer.

Margot Robbie's accent doesn't sound so bad in those clips in the trailer. For one thing, she hardly says anything - although she's featured visually, 80% of the dialogue in the trailer is Ronan's. Robbie's accent just sounds ... plain. But judging it based on this trailer is ridiculous. We'll have to wait till the film comes out, and so far at least, there's only one person on this thread who has seen it (assuming he's telling the truth).

I wasn’t bothered by the accents at all when I saw the trailer. It made me want to see the film...looks sumptuous.

Robbie is doing a soft, slight English accent....but so what? It might be alienating if she lay it on too thick.

Margot looks like a really fancy Pennywise 🤡

Has Ronan EVER given a poor performance? She plays American white trash, Irish trash, Queens, entitled Posh Brits all with the same ease and grace.

I'm starting to get worried if Glenn is nominated she might self-harm.

Well, a trip to the nut house might garner sympathy.

I wouldn’t put it past the old bitch.

Glenn obviously has a craven desire to win the Oscar this year. I just hope she doesn’t reach into Melissa Leo’s bag of tricks and embarrass us all.

You can tell who's the frontrunner by all the people piling on her.

I don’t think it’s really such a reaction to Glenn (she’s a capable actress) it’s more everyone being amused by her [bold]NO. 1 FAN!!![/bold] (or publicist?) who keeps touting her here.

[quote] Has Ronan EVER given a poor performance?

No, but she's never given an exceptional performance. She is the epitome of adequate. Hire her, you'll get what you need, but she's never stood out for me. I think all her nominations have been undeserved.

I hope daddy rami gets an oscar nomination, he was fabulous in bohemian. They gay kissing was hot.

[quote]but she's never given an exceptional performance

Oh I disagree. She was brilliant in "Brooklyn," which was a terrific film. She was also excellent in "Atonement," "On Chesil Beach" (really, really good film), and "The Grand Budapest Hotel." I didn't see "Ladybug."

To already have 3 Oscar nominations at the age of 24, it's clear that a lot of people agree that she's a lot more than "adequate."

[quote]To already have 3 Oscar nominations at the age of 24, it's clear that a lot of people agree that she's a lot more than "adequate."

Or that the Academy has a hard-on for UK/Irish actors.

I love Saoirse and I think she's a great actress but her performance in Lady Bird wasn't award wothy IMO and her performance in Brooklyn was kinda overrated too

I'm a fan since Atonement!

I thought Brooklyn has been her best performance. Ladybird was good but not great.

She was off the hook great in Brooklyn. And I thought she was wonderful in Ladybird - though I agree it wasn't an Oscar nominee performance.

Hey, I’m part Irish, too! Nominate me!

Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn > Brie Larson in Room

Glenn Close

Ethnicity: English, as well as distant German, Dutch, French, Welsh, and Scottish

I think Charlotte Rampling have the best performance in 48 Years the Brie/Saoirse year. The scene with her at the anniversary party was just unforgettable. She was magnificent.

*45 Years

Yes Charlotte was the best in the category and Lawrence was the worst

R497 Sweetie, Lawrence won 3 years earlier.

Lawrence was nominated for her performance in Joy

I saw Destroyer last night at AFI fest. I’m a Kidman fan, but oof, the film is bad, and I didn’t buy her performance for a second. Don’t see how she’s in the mix for best actress.

On the other hand, I don’t like Melissa McCarthy at all, and thought she was excellent in CYEFM. She’s my fave so far. Until I see The Favourite tomorrow. I’m a big Colman fanboy so I’m sure she’s going to pull out ahead. God, I’m gay.

Eugh can't believe that Lawrence is an Oscan winner

I think Kidman is more in play for Boy Erased than she is for Destroyer.

Interesting. I heard an entirely different reaction about Destroyer after the festivals. I will still probably see it because I love Kidman (and the current renaissance she seems to be going through).

I see Best Actress this year as Glenn/Gaga/Colman/McCarthy with an uncertain fifth spot that could be a surprise. (Collette?)

I’ve seen “Widows,” and I’m still confident about Davis. She has enough Oscar-type material (she does a lot of mourning, including some that’s very political) to overcome the heist genre trappings, she has an obvious fan base among voters, and she feels like an easy fifth slot choice since voters will see the movie. You can’t say the same for “Hereditary.”

Also, it’s no surprise that “Creed 2” won’t be up for anything major, but Tessa Thompson performs a song at a critical moment, and if it’s original, it should be a dark horse contender to fill out the songs that will lose to “Shallow.” Especially if Janelle Monae wrote it, which I’m going to assume she did for obvious reasons.

MQOS is getting pretty solid reviews.

R506 I'm wary of reviews these days. They give anything that is pro-female and a diversified cast an automatic rave.

R506 I hope Glenn doesn't read those reviews. She was a shoe-in in August and since then film after film is released with a stellar female lead performance. She should be put on a suicide watch.

This is the strongest list of contenders Best Actress has had in ages. This year, sixth through tenth place would probably be just as great as a category as any previous year.

Toni Collette WILL be nominated. Some of you bozos aren’t paying attention.

You’re predicting a performance in a horror movie released last spring that audiences hated, R510, and you think we’e the ones who aren’t paying attention? No matter how good Collette is, “Hereditary” goes to the bottom of every Academy voter’s stack of screeners this December, and that’s what kills the chances of marginal contenders all the time.

It’s not impossible for Collette, but having that level of confidence in her chances despite everything going against her is stark raving mad.

There might be a late-breaking Emily Blunt in the final Actress line-up.

R11 Collette’s performance was the most acclaimed of anyone’s for the entire first half of the fucking year. You are a revisionist historian.

[quote]Collette’s performance was the most acclaimed of anyone’s for the entire first half of the fucking year.

That's because none of the really good movies were released until the second half of the fucking year.

The performances bandied about for a nomination earliest usually pull through after the year-end releases finally come out and end up being underwhelming (see: Mary, Queen of Scots which, on paper last year, you'd have immediately put down for Actress and Supporting Actress). I realize that Collette has an uphill battle because of her film was divisive and the character goes completely off the rails. However, the "bird in the hand" theory w/r/t actress nominations oftentimes bears out.

I know that she's almost in her own category at this point, but Meryl Streep's performance in Florence Foster Jenkins was immediately listed as a potential Oscar nominee, dismissed because of the lightweight nature of her film, and then quickly resurrected at nomination time when many of the year-end behemoths fizzled upon release. Almost the exact opposite thing happened with her The Post performance. It arrived late and she got the nomination on the strength of the narrative of that character being nominated during the Trump era.

[QUOTE]That's because none of the really good movies were released until the second half of the fucking year. The above disproves this statement. It's not universally true.

What’s revisionist, R513? No matter how good Collette is, voters will not watch a horror movie just for her when they could sample “Mary, Queen of Scots” or even something like “Ben is Back” instead. And critics might have liked “Hereditary,” but that D+ Cinemascore for the film is brutal, and Academy tastes line up with audiences to a greater degree than you might think,

R515, you have it right. Meryl is her own category, and the rules that apply to any other performer don’t apply to her. And even FFJ was kept alive because of the Golden Globe lifetime award for Meryl and the concurrent campaign for Hugh Grant. Voters were going to watch it no matter what.

R514/idiot, you don’t have a clue. The new, diverse members will be happy to reward a criticsally successful, incredibly committed performance by a hugely admiired actress like Collette.

[quote]Academy tastes line up with audiences to a greater degree than you might think

Ain't that the truth! How many times have the LAFCA or NYFCC (i..e., the top two critics awards) gone on to win the Oscar?

Elizabeth Depicki has more of a chance of a nomination for Widows than Viola Davis does.

Melissa McCarthy didn’t get an Indie Spirit nomination but Richard E. Grant did. I think it’s between Toni Collette and Glenn Close. And I think Collette will win it.

God, those Indie Spirit noms are from hunger. And what the hell is the annual Bonnie award? I've been a member for over 20 years and I've never seen it before, so how can it be annual?

I will say it's nice to see some actual independent films recognized. I don't know if they're any good as I haven't seen them, but it's better than a bunch of movies from Focus Features. However, The Tale should not be in there at all. It's television, and was eligible for an Emmy. I'm getting sick of this increasing overlap between the Oscars and Emmys. Make a fucking decision. Either you qualify for one or the other, but it can't be both.

I like that the Indie Spirits gave the Robert Altman Award to SUSPIRIA. I know it has its detractors, but I found it an incredible cinematic experience. The ensemble is ferociously good and Tilda Swinton is, as per usual, a force of nature. And sort of like when Jane Fonda finally in They Shoot Horses, Don't They? it has made me take Dakota Johnson seriously as an actress for the first time.

Ummm, ok.

Was that supposed to be in response to me, R523?

No flies on you.

The world does not revolve around you, R522.

To Collette's credit she has been nominated for a Spirit Award and a Gotham Award - but neither of those are thought to be major indicators of Academy tastes. The latter laughably not so.

I just don't see Academy members getting beyond the first 20 minutes when her daughter is beheaded. It's so contrived. I wish I'd gotten up and left at that point. The truth is, even Toni Collette cannot save that film. It is risible, it's so bad.

Widows is going to suffer from poor word of mouth. The marketing and promotion of the film - especially in the U.S. - is very misleading. Audiences will be bored by how ponderous it is, without only one likeable character (not Viola) and McQueen's failure to stage the heist in an interesting manner. I'm predicting a Cinemascore of B-.

....

'Savagely strong'? Yep, that tells me the critics will see the so-called strong female angle and go easy on it.

Can the Lady Gaga troll and the Toni Collette troll please just go somewhere and fuck each other's brains out and leave the rest of us in peace?

R530, grow up. Maybe getting some space from your mommy will help with your anti-women obsession. Give it a try.

Hereditary was my pick for the worst film of the year. That is until I saw Suspiria.

[quote]The new, diverse members will be happy to reward a criticsally successful, incredibly committed performance by a hugely admiired actress like Collette.

Dear, the Chuck Woolerys of the Academy still outnumber these European hipster auteurs you think are taking over AMPAS. Yes it’s changing, but it’s still going to take years for the lifers to die off.

And yes, Chuck *is* a member.

R534, even the European hipster auteurs still aren’t going to be voting for Collette. They’re going to go for Yalitza Aparicio or Joanna Kulig.

R528 Ronan rises whilst Davis falls. The Spirits are trying to stop Glenn from self harming. They nominated 6 actresses when they should have left it at five and not nominated Colette's 'performance' in the ridiculous Hereditary. And how the fuck did Suspiria win the Robert Altman award. Urgh.

The Spirits definitely helped Ethan Hawke today, and I think he’ll probably be nominated, especially considering how Best Actor this year is basically Bradley Cooper dominating everyone else, pending Bale in “Vice.” McCarthy keeps seeming weaker and weaker, which is a shame because she is very good in her movie.

If Hawke does get nominated, it’ll be his fifth nomination in three different categories. I doubt anyone who knew him from “Dead Poets Society” and “Reality Bites” would have predicted that from him. But I can’t really complain about any of them, even “Training Day.”

Julia Roberts is absolutely excellent in Ben Is Back which I saw in Toronto. Best Actress is the best in years but she is 100% in play vs anyone but Glenn.

La Roberts is easily the biggest name competing in that category. Most voters are more likely to give that work a look. It will depend on their response to it whether she gets nominated or not.

R528 "Widows" got a B from Cinemascore.

R540 That good news for Glenn. She has the Indie Spirit in the bag up.

My bets. Carve them in stone.

Aparicio, Yalitza

Colman, Olivia

Close, Glenn

Gaga, Lady

Roberts, Juilia

Josie Rourke‘s Mary, Queen of Scots (Focus Features, 12.8) is a slog and a drag — a hard-to-follow, sometimes infuriating attempt to make a 16th Century tale of conflict between willful cousins (the titular, willful Mary vs. Queen Elizabeth of England) into something relevant to the convulsive culture of 2018. I found it a slog because I didn’t give a flying fuck about anyone, and because the damp and chilly-looking Scottish exteriors made me want to wrap myself in scarves and sweaters. Why would anyone want to live in Scotland in the first place? It’s all fog and peat and stone castles. I just wanted to build a fire and huddle.

I spent the entire 124-minute running time trying to understand why I hated this film almost immediately. Within ten minutes I was seething with resentment. There were several factors, I gradually realized.

I felt alienated by Rourke’s attempt to impose a woke social atmosphere upon 16th Century Scotland and England — by applying a strong women-vs.-sexist pig narrative and going with multicultural casting choices. I’m not saying it’s invalid to adopt this approach (knock yourselves out), but I did find it numbing to sit through.

I resented having to wade through the thick Scottish accents, and realized early on that I’d have to wait for a subtitled screener to understand all of the plot intrigues. It’s one of those historical flicks in which nothing is fully clear until you go to Wikipedia and read the actual histories.

I admired Saoirse Ronan‘s feisty performance as the titular character (she’s always good) but hated the blatant “acting” by the secondary characters — every actor explicitly conveys how their character is feeling about what’s going on — whether they’re pleased, unhappy, sad, unsettled or whatever — and after 15 minutes of this I was ready to scream. Please, stop “acting”!

I felt especially hostile to James McArdle‘s performance as the Earl of Moray, Mary’s resentful half-brother. My second most despised performance was Jack Lowden‘s as Lord Darnley — he preens, he poses, he goes down on Mary, etc.

I admired John Mathieson‘s cinematography and James Merifield‘s production design, and I “enjoyed” the extreme kabuki-like make-up that Margot Robbie wears as Queen Elizabeth. The intense red wig (revealed as such in the film) is going to look great on a 4K Bluray.

Ten minutes after it ended I wrote the following on a notepad: “Boring, interminable, tedious, over-acted, poorly acted, half-indecipherable, seriously narcotizing. I hated everyone in this film, I wanted everyone to die. I wanted to escape from damp, frigid Scotland. I wanted to shoot heroin into my veins, or at least drop a Percocet.”

There’s a surreal bit in which several guys in Mary’s court, lined up in platoon-like formation, suddenly go into a dance step…like they’re in a musical. This clip will eventually show up on YouTube. I was so numbed out when this happened that I almost didn’t respond. I wasn’t sure it was real — I thought I might be dreaming.

When Mary, Queen of Scots finally ended, four or five hours after it began, I moaned out loud “thank GOD.”

The best scene, I suppose, is a one-on-one between Mary and Elizabeth — what do you want?, who are we?, why do we have to do this?, etc. It happens in the third act but never occured in actuality. Whatever.

Mary’s actual execution was horrific — it took three blows of the axe to finish the job. Rourke cuts to black before anything happens.

Mary, Queen of Scots won’t be happening in the major award categories. Cinematography, production design, costumes, makeup…fine.

But forget Best Picture, Best Actress (Ronan is surrounded by too many factors working against her), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress…nothing in that realm.

R540 All that proves is Americans are idiots. Instant Family got an A.

Every single version of Mary Queen of Scots, starting with the original play, has a version of Mary and Queen Liz meeting. I guess the drama inherent in the situation is too tempting to play it accurate to truth (they never met).

I love the version that begins "I have seen but a poor likeness, yet I believe this is Elizabeth." "I AM Elizabeth."

The Guardian said Margot Robbie was terrible, looked uncomfortable with a dodgy dialect and nothing else.

They must've watched the trailer.

I think Roma is very much on the bubble. Not sure the Academy is ready to go all in on a Netflix release. The theatrical release is strictly boutique - "four walled" whereby Netflix has rented the auditoriums with no split for theatre owners. Not sure it will prevail with multiple nominations. Maybe just Best Director.

[quote]The theatrical release is strictly boutique - "four walled" whereby Netflix has rented the auditoriums with no split for theatre owners.

Sorry to seem dense, but what does any of that mean?

R548, it means Netflix has rented some cinemas - at $15,000 a week - to screen Roma for awards consideration. It's not a proper release in that they're working with a distributor, theatre owners are taking a split and box office figures would be published. The latter is of particular note as it causes much consternation amongst industry insiders - Netflix can say the film was a big hit, all screenings were sold out, etc., without any proof.

They are also only "releasing it in cinemas" for three weeks before it starts streaming on their platform.

Theatre owners are very much against Netflix films qualifying for and/or benefiting from film awards, especially the Oscars, because they see it as eroding their audience by promoting a streaming platform over cinemas. They want a significant window between the theatrical release and the streaming debut, of many months. Current Academy rules state that they have to run in cinemas at least 1 day before premiering on any other platform but those rules are likely to change for next year.

Personally, I don't think Netflix films should be eligible unless they have a proper cinematic release.

^^ "...they AREN'T working with a distributor...."

^^ "....theatre owners AREN'T taking a split...."

sorry, for the typos

"...and box office figures WOULD NOT be published."

Apologies for messing that up SO badly.

LOL! No worries. Thanks for the explanation.

R543

About Mary - Ronan really speaks with scottish accent though the whole movie? Is it explained? Mary lived in France before she became Queen of Scotland.

Oh please. Wake up! Streaming is where all film will be very soon. Theatres will be extinct. Those railing against it probably still have a landline phone too and a dial up modem.

Is Margot Robbie at least turning in a camp performance in MQoS?

I loved her last year in I, Tonya and would rank her as a very solid second place (next to McDormand).

[quote]Theatres will be extinct.

They said the same thing when TV and then VCRs came out

And radio.

Widows is already underperforming at the box office. Went into the weekend with a projection of $16 - 18M, will be lucky to do $12M.

Looks like all the Oscar hopeful movies are doing shit except A Star is Born.

[quote]R537 if Hawke does get nominated, it’ll be his fifth nomination in three different categories. I doubt anyone who knew him from “Dead Poets Society” and “Reality Bites” would have predicted that from him. But I can’t really complain about any of them, even “Training Day.”

Is Ethan Hawke the new Glenn Close?

Hawke's two writing credits are specious at best. They appear in both Before Sunrise and Before Sunset, both of which were nominated in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. Adapted from what? They were original screenplays that were born from improvisations having to do specifically with the films themselves, but not on any previously published material.

Hawke's movie this year was hellaciously boring. I forgot what a terrible director Paul Schrader was. He can be a good writer (Taxi Driver, of course) but he desperately needs a director to rein in his self indulgences and pick up the pace to something a little faster than sub-funereal.

Yeah, that doesn't mean shit R559. Most Oscar hopefuls/nominees underperform at the box office. It's a pleasant surprise when they are box office hits. Oscar nominations are actually supposed to bring more attention to these lesser-known films in order to increase revenue. All that being said, Widows was never going to clean up at the Oscars anyway.

Has Ethan ever done full frontal?

R562 A sequel is automatically considered an Adapted Screenplay. Before Sunrise was the previously published material.

(I don't 100% agree with this, but it does make a little sense. An example I think is suspect would be Kill Bill: Vol. 2. It had to be campaigned as Adapted, despite it technically just being the second part of a movie that was split in two.)

R542 is correct I think. I think Moolissa MooCarthy, Julia and Aparicio are fighting for the last two spots

Julia's not even in the top 10. She'll get Globe and SAG noms for her TV series and that will be that.

R567 easy Sandra.

R567. Says you? She's on almost all top 10 if not 5 prognosticators list.

R569 Who is currently predicting her?

Send me some links.

Keep up

Look for your own links, asshole. If you’re so interested, surely you know which sites to go to.

R571 She's not in the top 5 there. And the magazines show at least 8 other actresses. I'll give you that: she might be in the top 13.

R572 That's my point. I know exactly where to go. And none of those people are predicting Julia to be in the top 5 or 10.

But enjoy those Homecoming nominations!

R1573 also must've missed EW COVER where they claimed La Roberts is all dressed and ready for the Oscars. Moron.

Sandra Bullock's publicist needs to calm the fuck down. Julia is a definite contender. Yes she may not be nominated but she's most certainly on the shortlist. On name alone she's on the shortlist

R574 Wow! One magazine cover where it suggests she's going to the Oscars. With a question mark.

I'm sure she'll go to the Oscars. Best Adapted Screenplay isn't going to present itself.

Hey, I'd love for her to be in the race. She's always such a fun bitch and she'll make the season a lot more fun. Plus, it's nice to have a legit A-lister at these events. I'm sure she's good in the film, but it's going nowhere. Half the people will think they are seeing Beautiful Boy, the other half will think it's Boy Erased.

A troll is triggered. I bet it's fat and rooting for that McCarthy cow. Wanting Hollywood deglamorized and fat.

I bet R576 is a hoot at parties

If the academy has a legitimate chance to nominate Julia Roberts, they will.

I should know.

R577, hon, you're the only triggered troll on this thread, anytime someone rejects your notion that Glenn Close has this in the bag.

Since it's been brought up, I just want to say that I hated "Homecoming." Hated it. Julia's good, of course, and so is the rest of the cast. It should have been, at most, a four hour event movie, not an eight episode series.

The loon obsessed with Julia Roberts and Melissa McCarthy needs to go away. Calling people fat? Are you an actual functioning adult?

Variety comes all over Christian Bale's performance in Vice.

But it does raise the question of how voters will get behind a movie that "leaves you feeling like crap"

Damn, lots of flops this weekend.

Widows barely opened to $12m in an almost 3000 screen release. That's about $4K per screen.

Boy Erased added over 300 screens and could only muster $3K per screen

Can You Ever Forgive Me likely won't go much wider than 500 screens, as it's underwhelmed every week

A Private War only did $800 per screen

Beautiful Boy is already shedding theaters

Green Book has had major pushes for the past two months and premiered on 25 screens and only did $12K per screen.

Suspiria lost all the screens it gained last week. DOA

The Front Runner might as well not even have been released

Even the Crimes of Grindewald only did $62m

Bohemian rhapsody already kicked a star is borns ass at the box office, 385 million worldwide. Will end it's it run with 450-500 million.

[quote]R581 I hated "Homecoming." Hated it. Julia's good, of course, and so is the rest of the cast. It should have been, at most, a four hour event movie, not an eight episode series.

It’s 5 hours long (because the episodes are only 30 mins. each) and many people watch it in one sitting....so I don’t see how that’s very different from what you wanted.

I thought it was really good.

OP here.

Part 4 is up.

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