Breaking news! Dow just tumbled 700 points

It's due to Hurricane in Florida.

R1 No, rising interest rates.

No, r2. It's CHY-NA!

Sears is about to declare bankruptcy. Killed by Amazon. I wonder what that will do to my appliance service contract.

I'm surprised it hasn't happened sooner.

Sears has been on life support for years. The only thing it had going for it was the kennmore brand.

I heard 1/3 of malls will be bankrupt in the next 5 years.

I think consumers and workers are going to regret the death of brick and mortar, bitterly.

Down 800 points

I can't breathe.

- Kelly

[quote]I think consumers and workers are going to regret the death of brick and mortar, bitterly.

I know I will. I enjoy going into a store and browsing. (And yes, I buy 95% of my items from a brick and mortar). I'm in distress at Lord & Taylors closing their NYC store. I love the beauty and the architecture of these old stores.

Ford is preparing for massive layoffs after losing $1 billion due to Trump's tariffs.

The Dow closed 831 points lower as Intel and Microsoft fell more than 3.5 percent each. The Nasdaq plummeted more than 4 percent.

I wonder how tRump will spin this?

24,000 job losses, I think, r12.

tRumproast will blame anyone he can. He’s very sick and demented.

The Rethuglicans are counting on the economy to keep them in power. Is this enough cumulatively to scare undecided and ambivalent voters into voting ? Will they vote straight democratic party line? I guess we will see how the market does tomorrow and Friday. Would this be an indication that all of tRump's policies, decisions, behavior have finally tipped the scale and started a recession ? So many questions here

"It's a Correction" R13.

Not all of those losses will be in the US, R14. And if I have anything to say about it, none of them will be in the USA.

MAGA!

[quote] Ford is preparing for massive layoffs after losing $1 billion due to Trump's tariffs.

3rd largest single day drop in history.

i feel good coz i totally missed the ride up. I was gonna put money in the market but never did ( before Trump became POTUS).

What's the consensus as to cause? It can't be all about Sears.

Thrid largest single day POINT drop, r20. If it was the third largest PERCENTAGE drop then we'd be in deep shit.

oh come now, r23. my post sounds so much more dramatic and fabulous. lets just go with that.

Kavanaugh was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

This is fake news. The dow is tremendous. It is the best. It will make all of us rich. It is tremendous.

Its massive and its growing! Believe me!

If those idiotic supporters of the biggest idiot in WH said Dow going up was because Donnie the Orange this is his fault, too? Economy will start to show the results from the decisions made by WH and gop.

Supposedly it tanked because of remarks by the Federal Reserve chair.

Oh, crap.... Ignore r29. That was an older article. Sorry!

USA Today has a pretty gloomy take on it.

The Washington Post has a much more balanced take.

It tanked on a few things...treasury bond yields went up, Ford is feeling the impact of tarrifs and China isn't buying bonds.

It's because Taylor Swift told people to vote Democrat. The tighter the grip the GOP has, the better the stock market does.

Sarah Sanders said this is nothing, so don't worry about it. What does Sarah have her degree in?

Once we take congress Trump will blame us if the economy worsens. He needs no proof, all he has todo is say it and the media will trumpet his charge and a huge chunk of America will believe it.

"Those dirty democrats...as soon they got congress they started working against you. This is all their doing. They keep me from making the economic miracles I could deliver if only they weren't here. Remember how good the economy was before they got in? It was great. All you have to know is that democrats won and you are now losing, folks. Better start voting GOP again."

And Chuck schumer will pull his granny shawl around his shoulders and look up from his teeny lady reading glasses and say, "Oh pshaw. Everyone knows that's not true. I have to go now for my prostate exam. Goodnight. "

Democrats better be prepared for it. As soon as we win, they'll blame everything on us.

At this point and with this much traffic...people would rather order stuff on line.

Thanks Fed Chair for trying to tank the economy so Trump will lose in 2020. Trump said "fed has gone crazy"

I feel more than $25k lighter today! Thanks, Donald!

Deplorables don’t have stock so...

How dare the Fed do what they've always done in the past, R38! Particularly with Trump's own hand-picked chair.

[quote]Deplorables don’t have stock so...

But some work for Ford or did.

I'm all for another recession if it means Trump and Republicans get voted out of office. Unfortunately, a bad economy is what it's going to take before people finally wake up.

Personally, I look forward to the MAGA idiots trying to explain why Trump was personally responsible for the stock market growth when it went up and how he had nothing to do with it when it went down.

Heads, I win; tails, you lose.

I told y'all this was coming.

It is going to bottom out around the week of the 22nd.

Relax, ladies. We know you want the sky to fall so you can clutch your pearls and have the vapors, but it isn't.

[quote] Personally, I look forward to the MAGA idiots trying to explain why Trump was personally responsible for the stock market growt

All he needs to do is say It and it's magically true.

"Look how great the economy is, folks. So great. So very great. Best stock market in the history of the world. Best growth America has ever had in the economy, believe me. Trump made that happen. It happened because of Trump and the great policies enacted by this administration. So true. So very true. We're making America great again. Trump is making America great again. Don't let the dirty democrat dogs take away the great Trump economy. Don't do it, folks."

And his rabid cultists believe it. They don't need it explained to them and they don't need to explain it. It just IS. They'll say, "I'm not an economist (like global warming deniers say "I'm not a scientist"). The economy is great and even the liberal media agrees it is."

Historically, the DOW always plummets in October....look at past nose dives October

Market tumbles on the news that Joe Giudice to be deported.

.....it’s Dianne Feinstein’s fault. .....but HER emails.. .....fake news. .....it’s Obama’s fault. .....it’s God’s punishment because of the liberals. .....but Fox News didn’t say anything, so it’s not true.

Tax Cut Karma

Will the American dollar lower?

R52 No it’s safe haven

I am still upset that record stores like Virgin and toy stores like TRU and FAO are closed! B&N is slowly following, but on life support. I like Amazon just as much as the next guy for convenience, but miss the physical atmosphere in those stores.

It will rise again

[quote] It will rise again

Like Donald Trump's penis?

I moved 20k into an ETF the day before the falling started, because I read several articles that indicated that October, despite the black days, is the best month for increases and this October was primed to be a big gainer. The whole thing is rigged against individual investors.

" I like Amazon just as much as the next guy for convenience."

What convenience? Order a book from Amazon on Saturday, it arrives Tuesday. I could drive to the local Barnes & Noble and back about 150 times in that time period.

Thank you, R23. I about had an infarction.

But you'd have to put on pants, R58.

"The sky is falling!!!!! The sky is falling!!!!!"

I'm glad that Trump-voting Ford workers are getting fucked hard. Too bad for Democrats, though.

It’s not Trump’s fault. It’s the Feds.

Well, it also wasn't Trump's fault that the stock market grew but he certainly claimed credit for it, so he can take the blame when it plummets.

R54 - Worried about B&N? Just as bad as Amazon when it comes to destroying independent bookstores.

President Shitgibbon said the Fed's "gone crazy".

Do these people know they're projecting like 200 slide projectors operating in synch?

Blame Hillary! She emailed about plotting to crash the stock market in conjunction with the illuminati and Soros and all those missing kids from the pizza place in the basement of Benghazi and then she deleted the emails, so lock her up!!

[quote]Sarah Sanders said this is nothing, so don't worry about it.

She doesn't have to worry. All of her money is invested in Canadian Allied Petroleum.

It’s going further down. Insiders have been selling off for months in anticipation. Trump will try and blame the Fed for raising interest rates, but he helped create the run up with his excess tax cuts. The deplorables will turn on him when they realize their retirement savings of jobs (to the extent they have either) are going to tank. Donnie Darko is also running up the deficit like a cheap whore with a credit card. China is kicking him right in the balls. They are smarter and have money.

We’ve only fallen back to where we were at the beginning of June. It’s not that big a deal. Though I’ve lost a lot of unearned income!

Only fools think we can avoid the inevitable crash. 10 years was a good run.

JC Penny, too, is due to go under.

I sold 40% of my aggressive investments since February and bought bonds or more conservative mutual funds. Still took a bath today.

Oh no. Sarah Sanders as stock market expert is a joke.

What degree does the Huckstress have? Why, a Phd in Cuntonomics of course.

BUT........... WHAT ABOUT HER EMAILS !!!!!!!!!!!!

Nosferatu, how did you know this was going to happen? I do seem to recall your prediction.

Reasons: Fed; hurricane; tariffs; overvalued; lack of confidence; that little report that says we only have 12 years to act on global warming; Trump all out of good luck

R77, May I just repeat my prediction?

Trump is an unstable lunatic. His trade policies are not thought out at all. None of his policies are thought out, actually. The Mueller investigation will contribute to political instability. Trump might get arrested, actually. The market was over-valued. A correction was inevitable. The end.

No one ever believes me.

Has Trump tried to blame Obama yet?

Maybe people want their cash if we all are going to die by 2030. It's like a run on banks during the Great Depression.

They're moving money into bonds, that's all.

[quote] Democrats better be prepared for it. As soon as we win, they'll blame everything on us.

In case you haven't noticed R36 Trump never stopped blaming Democrats for everything bad.

PS, if you want to get rid of Trump, sell all your stocks. It's the only way for you to protect your money and teach him a lesson. The 1% U.S. is out way ahead of you.

Right now, it's just a one-day drop. It will be interesting to see what happens the rest of this month. We're overdue for a correction but nobody knows just when it will happen, how severe it will be, how long it will last, and what will trigger it. Since so much of this is based on psychology, there is no way to predict.

Maybe this will spark a panic that will hit other markets and collapse everything. Winning!

R5, the S&P 500 has been falling since 10/3, so it’s a bit more than one day. We could see a 20%-30% drop. But it’s really impossible to predict accurately..

^ I meant R85, not R5.

Except psychology can diagnose, which is actually articulated above. The risk factors are all known.

I believe you, R79.

I agree with you, too, R89. I don’t get this whole “Who knows what will happen?” or “It’s just a correction” nonsense. Economists have been predicting things... very bad, not good things.”

If the Chinese sell their $1Trillion+ in Treasury Bonds then today's interest rate rise will look tiny in comparison.

Trump sure wasn't talking correction a few months ago. Idjut.

If Soros would just pay all those protesters what he owes them, they could invest it and the market would bounce back overnight.

Official White House Response:

[quote]"The fundamentals and future of the U.S. economy remain incredibly strong. Unemployment is at a fifty year low, taxes for families and businesses have been cut, regulations and red tape have been slashed, paychecks are getting fatter, consumer and small business confidence are setting records, and farmers, ranchers and manufacturers are empowered by better trade deals. President Trump's economic policies are the reasons for these historic successes and they have created a solid base for continued growth."

Trump's comments:

[quote]he said "the Fed has gone crazy when asked about the market drop, saying they are too tight

[quote]he said "it would have been very unfair" to the people who wanted to see the rally for him to have canceled.

On the bright side, you buy when the market is down

R96 Gurl! This ain't "down" yet.

[quote]he said "it would have been very unfair" to the people who wanted to see the rally for him to have canceled.

What is this in response to?

They asked him if he were still going to hold a rally tonight, since there is a hurricane and a stock market plunge to deal with.

That was in response to him possibly canceling his rally in Erie Pa tonight because of the hurricane.

I'm not so sure it's just a correction. Market is due for a bounce but the futures are still dropping after-hours.

Will the people of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas remember that Donnie Darko (love it) chose an effing fundraising rally and his fatass ego instead of them?!

Futures dropping after hours aren't an indication of where the market will actually open, r101.

What did fat fuck day at the rally that was offensive? You know he said something shitty.

Breaking news! Dow just tumbled 700 points

At least WE will be safe -

Is this an ELE?

We’re still about 4% up, for the calandar year, so it’s too early to panic. We could fall another 15% and it won’t be anything unusual. Plus, I’m wondering if Mueller might do something before the election, since it’s very clear that Sessions and Rosenstein are both out after the election.

October 2008, I remember it well. It was ten years ago this month when I lost all financial security because of the WaMu failure, which was the onset of the 21st Century's Great Depression. Within a matter of mere minutes, I lost everything, all financial security, along with thousands, upon thousands of others.

Get ready.

The market has been trending down for the past month. I think it will be in full correction mode before the year is up.

The housing market has also been cooling for the past few months. It's only going to get worse as rates continue to rise.

And why aren't more people complaining about the cost of gasoline? All those people bought SUVs with the belief that gas would stay permanently low. I guess those middle-class tax cuts are being wiped out every time they pull up to the gas pump. And wait till they see their heating bills go up this winter.

[quote]R54 I like Amazon just as much as the next guy for convenience, but miss the physical atmosphere in those stores.

You can decorate your home like a store, if you want?

You can buy the shelving, signage, and checkout stands cheap from the stores that are closing.

Fuck you tRump and the assholes who turned my state Red

But he was suposta make us all bilonairs. And kill all dem brown peeple.

It's all Obama's fault! And Hillary's, somehow!

[quote]JC Penny, too, is due to go under

I am a tall guy and I like ordering my xtra tall work pants from JC Penny's, I hope they make it. It is still the cornerstone of our local mall and the nostalgia factor alone I want it to make it. My mom is bummed that our Younkers closed.

But Amazon only has junk...

....

The Federal Reserve has a history of always killing economic booms and pushing us into recession with severe interest rate hikes. Someone needs to be brave enough to point out the obvious, that the Fed has no idea what it's doing. They use a textbook from decades ago and accordingly always think that low unemployment leads to inflation. Inflation was already under control. Plus, higher interest rates are a form of inflation for everyone who has debts. The Fed only cares about the investor class, not working people. I hope Trump goes after the Fed.

"I heard 1/3 of malls will be bankrupt in the next 5 years."

Then where will gangs have their rumbles?

[quote] The Federal Reserve has a history of always killing economic booms and pushing us into recession with severe interest rate hikes.

R117 your lack of understanding of the Federal Reserve system is astounding. Eventually there will be an economic down turn, and the Fed will need to lower interest rates then to boost the economy. If those interest rates are already low, it will limit the Fed's power to help pull the US and probably the world out of the economic down turn.

A booming economy WILL lead to inflation, it is the Fed's responsibility to keep inflation down, increased interest rates will do that. The US is recording record deficits, to fund those deficits there needs to be a high enough interest rate to attract investors into buying US debt.

Even Trump, when he was running for President criticized the Fed for keeping interest rates too low. Now that he is President he complains about them going up.

It's because of #MeToo

2 hours until the market opens, and futures indicate it'll open down another 300.

I always take our money out of the stock market at the end of September. Glad I did it this year too.

Damn! All the cruise toilets in my area are at 2 JC Penney and 2 Sears stores. What are we supposed to do for breakfast/lunch quickies? Back to bathhouses and parks?

I put enough money in money market funds to carry me over the next 2+ years, so not worried. I wouldn't be surprised if the market recovers by the end of the month. The real recession will hit next year.

I'm retired and have only $250K in the market to last the rest of my life (along with SS). It went from $251K to $241K yesterday and I'm half and half between stocks and bonds. This is bad. Like 2008. I lost 25% back then and it's why I'm practically broke today. FUCK!!! Should I take my money out????

R125 I’m in the same condition as you. I moved my money to CDs last month because I had lost about $500 since the beginning of the year despite the supposedly great market. I’d rather earn a small return than suffer small losses. The stock/bond market feels too much like gambling to me.

My home is my other asset. I’ve been thinking about selling it and I should have done it last year because now it needs a new roof and interest rates are rising and I am going to end up getting a lot less for it. So frustrating and depressing.

[quote] R117: Someone needs to be brave enough to point out the obvious, that the Fed has no idea what it's doing... I hope Trump goes after the Fed

Or, maybe you just don’t understand the subject? Trump certainly doesnt. He’s already wrecked political alliances, climate change, the rule of law, and more. Let’s not have him apply his “gut” on the Fed, too.

I wonder if Trump has consulted with himself yet, on this subject. I bet he make himself make an appointment and call himself “Mr. Trump “.

[quote] R125: FUCK!!! Should I take my money out????

Probably. It reads as though the volatility of the market makes it an unsuitable investment for you.

R117 -- Russkie Troll, you go home and you not stir up pot like good American won't do.

R22, multiple factors. This will continue, in my estimation. The market will rally after today, and more drops will ensue.

Tech is going to revolutionize the market, and it will not all be “a good thing”. We just aren’t equipped to handle the pace, at this point in time.

The hit we will take on tarifa will continue systematically. We will see the full effects, in six months to a year.

There is always a way to beat the market, however. Study up on how it’s done, and research the hell out of multiple sectors. Don’t rely on your brokers/ financial advisors to do it for you, because most will not. They only pay attention to their big money accounts. Do the research, and advise them on what to do. I’ve worked in this industry for most of my adult life, so I know.

[quote]it's why I'm practically broke today. FUCK!!!

RPP

[quote] R117: Plus, higher interest rates are a form of inflation for everyone who has debts.

If you have fixed interest rate debit, the opposite is true. Higher inflation generally decreases the cost to you to pay the interest on that debt.

If you have variable rate debit, it’s still not necessarily true. In theory your interest rates simply track inflation so the net is zero.

still going down

All the indices are going up right now

Kanye the other highly stable “genius” is fixing all the country's problems.

Eighteen months ago I needed a AAA tow. The tow-driver was a chatty guy who’d been on the job years, and as I rode in the cab with him to the garage, I asked him what he thought of the new President. He pondered a while then responded: “Well, my modest IRA is doing well, and everyone keeps saying he’s a successful, clever business man, but then I think that he bankrupted a casino. Who bankrupts a casino?” These words keep returning to me.

-- NYT Comment

Problem is that if we're headed toward a recession, people won't feel it big time until next summer-fall - then they'll blame the Dems in congress since they'll control at least the house. Donald will surely get that msg out.

"Sears has been on life support for years. The only thing it had going for it was the kennmore brand."

True. However, the "Kenmore brand" is merely slapping the brand name on products made by others like Whirlpool and GE.

R125 & R126 Do not sell you will turn a paper loss into a real loss. That's what screwed many people in 2008, I have a friend who did this he panicked and sold his investments. Today he has no retirement savings and will have to work the rest of his life.

R125 Don't listen to R139 $10k Loss versus $100k when Dump wrecks the market. Sell now and stay out until it dives.

it will bounce back already is...

Hold me, DL! I'm scared!

Down another couple hundred today and falling.

Is it bouncing back or is it down another couple hundred? Both can’t be true.

It's both. After dropping ~300 points it's now bouncing back.

Better thread title: "10/10/18 Dow tumbled 700 points."

Save Breaking for comment block.

And then DROPPING again.

Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy night.

Kanye will fix it!

MSNBC is just covering the dang hurricane. How can I get real-time updates on the rise and fall of the indices?

CNBC?

What hurricane, R149?

I hope all the people who bought those big SUVs when gas was cheap are getting fleeced right now.

Looks like we picked the wrong time to make cars.

To STOP making cars...

I have a Ford Fiesta. Last week I traveled form Albuquerque to Denver and back and spent less than $40 in gas. Ford's decision to stop making cars and concentrate on big ass SUVs and pickups was one hell of short sighted decision.

Just Google djia, r149, The page loads with real time Dow info with graph up top and if you scroll down a bit you will see real time quotes for the other major indices.

Trump is doing what he always does when there is bad economic news--ignore it.

I’m sorry to say it because it will hurt some people who don’t deserve it, but I hope the market keeps going down until Trump & the Repubs have to pay. Right before the midterms is great timing.

trump will say the market is going down vecaus3 the fake media keeps saying democrats will win congress & the stock market is scared of that. “You see folks? The dishonest media says democrats will win some seats and guess what happens when Wall Street hears that? They start selling, b3cause 5hey know democrats are bad for the economy.”

Trump is a fly-ridden moist pile of dogshit, but he has one talent and one talent only — smearing.

And he’s fantastically good at it.

He can turn anything around and lay it on someone else & his pack of braying deplorables will believe him. All of the RWNJ outlets — Faux, Breitabort, newsmax, Daily Caller, RCP, TMZ, Enquirer, Drudge — will parrot his nonsense to all the low information cretins out there.

Thank you R156.

r116 I only WISH gas were $3.00 a gallon.

I’m visiting the us from Canada at the end of the month will this make the dollar drop? Should I wait before I buy US cash?

Down 500+ points (>2.0%) as of 2:45 EST

Make that -600+ points!

Ouch.... some folks are panicking, clearly.

Down 2.5% in VALUE from today’s opening. But the day isn’t over. Stay tuned!

[quote] some folks are panicking, clearly.

An all-too-predictable and obvious by-product of the republican'ts wholesale repeal of all regulations on the financial industry.

It's due in part to unease over China and confidence in the administration. Even more, rising interest rates (which is healthy in a booming economy) and increased bond yields- stocks always lose value. So necessary adjustments to an overheated market.

The real danger is the new tax law piling on the deficit. When we do hit a recession we will be unable to stimulate our way out. The tax law passed by the GOP is irresponsible beyond words. All they did during Obama's terms was rant about the deficit (and he decreased deficit spending dramatically). They or course are doing just the opposite. It's wild. The GOP is a party gone mad.

Meanwhile, as always, investing in the stock market (equity) is not for the short term- it's about long term investing. Any other approach is for the speculators- most of whom rely on illegal information if they want a chance for success. I will not sell. I'll ride it out. I've been at this rodeo many times.

What should a person with 15 years until retirement do? That doesn't seem "long term" to me.

What R168 said. Nicely written.

15 years is still long term, R169. I'd ride it out, personally.

R139, you don’t sell IRAs or 401Ks. You either reallocate your positions, or you draw them out through annuities, roll them over, or cash them in with various tax penalties, depending on your age and/or why.

You could, in theory, convert the investments to cash, though, R172, which would have the impact of "selling."

R173, correct. That’s why I included “cash them in, with various tax penalties, depending on your age and/or why”.

I’ve done this for years, R173. I knew to include that. 👍🏼

I moved many of my assets to bonds in late September. Nosferatu saw this coming in the stars.

Market down, bonds up, Nosferatu pleased he can still read stars, omens and portents after all these years.

[quote]What should a person with 15 years until retirement do?

Make sure you have food on your table

Amen, r168. We very close to spending more on our interest payments than we are in military spending and that should scate the shit out of people.

Scate = scare ^

600 points down. What was that about everything being fine?

R175, did you mean Nostradamus, or is the vampire reference a joke I'm just not getting?

Nosferatu sees all r180

Unless the market turns around in the next couple of months 2018 looks like a bust. My 401K was up over 11% at one point and when I checked this morning it was only up 4%. I'm assuming it's around zero at the moment. It did much better last year.

This guy is predicting this downturn will continue through 2019, and the DOW will eventually jump to 40,000. Keep in mind the highest the DOW has gone so far is around 27,000.

It does look like 2018 will be a bust for the market. I don't see the market hitting the highs it hit January until,the China issue is resolved.

Dow 40,000?!

Can someone who understands this stuff better than the layman explain in sub-layman terms how the Dow can climb to 40,000 while yesterday & today’s downturn will continue for another year?

is it okay to invest in gold - considered a safe haven when stocks are tumbling?

Let’s hope tomorrow it drops another 1,000 points.

[quote]Meanwhile, as always, investing in the stock market (equity) is not for the short term- it's about long term investing. Any other approach is for the speculators- most of whom rely on illegal information if they want a chance for success. I will not sell. I'll ride it out. I've been at this rodeo many times. This is why I said don't sell and turn your paper loss into a real loss. The market will go back up. I have also rode out downturns and my equities have always gone higher.

I would normally keep holding even during a recession, but under this administration and with climate change threatening our very existence, I might just sell. The usual rules don't seem to apply in these crazy times

[quote] Can someone who understands this stuff better than the layman explain in sub-layman terms how the Dow can climb to 40,000

R185 it is a guess and he is probably correct someday and while I didn't read the link I am pretty sure he didn't give a time table when it will hit 40,000. Someday surely it will hit 40,000, just as one day 27,000 seemed impossible. Don't pay that much attention to anyone person's predictions they stand as good a chance as being wrong as being right.

The DowJones is a terrible indicator, it only tracks 30 large stocks, while the S&P tracks 500 stocks and the Russell 2000 tracks 2000 stocks. I wouldn't put much faith in the Dow but all the indexes tend to go up or down at the same time.

Please sir, may I have another?

The market still seems very unstable. It may yo-yo a bit because of positive earnings etc. But I think it’s going down because US is in so much debt - both government and citizens. Big drops like these are caused by ETFs and other funds selling, not individual investors. I think most people know you can’t keep going up indefinitely without some kind of major crash coming.

PS, the market is not going from 25 to 40 - maybe in a decade after a crash. More likely it’s going down to 15.

Well, my company's stock went up today, so I'm good....

[quote]That’s why I included “cash them in, with various tax penalties, depending on your age and/or why”.

You misunderstood. In many IRA and 401(k) accounts, cash is an option. So you can sell your stock, keep the cash in the retirement fund, and not incur any penalty.

The Dow was way, way, way overstated. I'd rather it plunge than go up anymore, and I own plenty of stock.

That’s what I did, R196. I think I will buy CDs for now. My nerves can’t stand the drama. I don’t have a fortune and I can’t afford to lose what I have. I’m already retired.

r197, I hope you like to pay income taxes because they'll hit you with capital gains fiercely.

What? I didn’t take the money out of the IRA. There is no taxable event.

I can retire pretty much anytime in the next 6 years, I think. I'd prefer that we go through the correction/downturn sooner rather than later, as that will let me see whether I truly do have enough to weather the storm. If I do, I'm outta here. If not, I'll stay with the grind for another half dozen years and save/invest like crazy.

one more day of crashing is all I'm praying for!

We should all be BUYING stock right now.

not yet, R202. Wait til it hits bottom.

Let's hope the stock market isn't an insatiable bottom, eh?

Grand Maul Seizures ??

And we're up 300+ plus so far.

If you are 10 plus years from retiring just keep buying automatically in your 401k and Roth accounts and focus on your job/life. Ignore the market noise and don't try to time it.

Definitely caused by higher rates

And we’re back below the start by -30 pts

Now back + 287 on the Dow!

WHEEEEEEEE

Stocks are so fucking manipulated by the rich that it's ridiculous. The fact that so many people base their determination on the health of the economy on the stock market alone is insane.

Most people are idiots and the stock market indices are one number that they can concentrate on r210

And since the head of the idiots thinks that he’s responsible for the stock market gains and that is the only indicator that the economy is soaring, then I am hoping the market crashes.

God it went down; it was way overstated. Maybe it will stabilize now.Thank

You want to try that again in English, R213.

I'm guessing that he's saying that it was good that it went down because it was too overvalued. And now that it has declined a bit, maybe it will stabilize.

It might stabilize now but it's still overvalued.

Don’t forget I predicted this too!

There was one poster who said he believed me, but I don’t believe him!

[quote] R194: Well, my company's stock went up today, so I'm good....

There are few things as certain as this: you should not invest in your own employer. If it runs into trouble, you could lose your job and your investments on the same day.

Oh, I know, R217, but I work in the tech industry, so a certain portion of my compensation comes from stock awards. I keep a small percentage of those shares and sell the rest, using the proceeds to invest in low-cost index funds. The post was mostly a joke, a la Enron.

When guys stop sucking cock, then I'll worry.

The S & P 500 is still up 3.6% for the year, so this week is really quite nothing. When it drops to where it was 3 years ago or more, then complain. I think it will eventually fall far more than this, for the reasons I gave in R79.

Whoever was asking about selling, well, it all depends - on so much! But if you are aggressively invested, I would (and actually did) move to a more conservative mix.

As for gold as an investment, R186, the gold fetishists have really turned me off to the idea. And it still depends on so much! If you do buy gold, it’s always wise to stay diversified, meaning, don’t put everything into gold. Maybe 10% might be wise, though “your mileage may vary”, i.e., your situation may dictate a different strategy.

What a crazy week. We recouped a little today, but nerve racking. October seems to be a bad month for the wild rides in the stock market... the 1929 crash..2008.

Ah-ha, R218! Sounds good. I worked for Lotus in Cambridge in 1992, and got the same stock rewards.

I feel bad for the folks at Enron.

My sister has worked for AT&T for 30 years. Though it’s not the same company it once was. And now it’s Frontier Corp., and the stock is really dragging. Of course, it was a high flyer and is now scraping the floor, though it was a slow motion failure.

I got her out of company stock about 10 years ago. I’ve made her a bundle, though she is so uninterested in the market that she has no idea how well she’s doing. I just checked one investment for her son, and it’s up 27% per year, for 5 years, by average.

Being retired, I have a conservative percentage in stocks...you have to be in for some gains. I'm not a fan of the stock market, though.. don't have the stomach for drops like this week. I was told to ride it out, and look at it as opportunities of buying more stocks at a lower price. Ok....

Can someone recommend a website for a mutual fund fantasy portfolio, that tracks a reinvestment of distributions? I use Fidelity’s site, but I don’t think they track that. I think, though haven’t verified, that distributions are just ignored. So, if you have a fund that is up 100%, but then pays a 50% distribution, it will report that the fund is up 0%. That really irritates me. Ty.

I have enough saved now to buy Vanguard Admiral shares with their lower costs. I want to do something attached to the whole market like an ETF or index fund but when I look at their site my eyes just cross because I don't know what all the different numbers mean and can't really tell if one of their funds is better than another for straight forward, simple investing. I have 25 years before I might retire but might need access to the money in an emergency because I don't make a lot annually so can't afford to lose a big portion of it. I've been holding off until the correction comes, which seems inevitable.

Any advice from those on this thread who seem to know what they're talking about?

Inside traders of the 1% make money weather the market goes up or down. The Trumpanos probably made millions on tuesday. You mom and pop Investors worrying about you piss ant 401k's might as well go to Vegas, at least it's not rigged.

I made $2,700 by buying the stocks low yesterday. It's not really hard to do, if you have even a 3rd grade education. What goes down, goes back up and what goes up, comes down.

Buy low, sell high.

R226, it's rather silly to pretend that an average investor cannot make money on the market, when investing in a low-cost index fund, which anyone can do, will return an average of 8% or so over the long haul. That's better than you'll get in Vegas.

R225, it’s really impossible to “time the market”, so adjust your expectations about investing at the bottom.

Vanguard must have a customer support line, no? Can you call and ask them?

Does Vanguard also have Commodore funds? Admiral funds sounds queer to me.

A few of my friends were likewise cross eyed about all the choices in their 401k plans. The trick is to choose wisely, but just jump in. I got my friends in, in 2009 and 2010, so you can imagine their gains today. They must have tripled their money, or better by now. Not that I get so much as a Christmas card. Anyway, pick a fund, then put a little in. Don’t put all your money in at once. I would put 10% a month in, for 10 months.

Vanguard must have a graph-facility where you can compare multiple funds, no? If not, Yahoo finance does. Plunk down your top 5 favorite funds and see what their 1, 3, and 5 year returns look like compared to each other. Though, if you invest in an index fund, you could skip this and assume you match the index.

R225, your starting point for stocks should be Vanguard VTSAX - the total stock market index fund. Tracks the market as a whole, and dirt cheap to boot.

R229 is right. Go with an index fund. Trying to time the market is a mug's game - just invest, and over time you should be OK. Day-to-day fluctuations like we've seen this week aren't terribly important in the long run. Remember - retirement savings is a long game, so play it that way.

Yeah, R226 doesn’t know anything about this. I have over $400,000 in one of my accounts, and I’ve actually withdrawn more than I put in, so it’s all profit. It’s over a lifetime, but still. Only $100,000 hasn’t been taxed yet.

My point being, there’s always money in the banana stand!

Buy Sears stock. It’ll pop up exactly one time, and then dump it.

[quote] R227: I made $2,700 by buying the stocks low yesterday. It's not really hard to do, if you have even a 3rd grade education. What goes down, goes back up and what goes up, comes down

We’re you around during the crash of 2008? The market went down. Then down. Then down some more. Then down further. Your plan relies on luck. Which is great, until it’s not.

Yes, but the market has recovered from 2008, many times over.

The market always gains back what it lost, and then some. So if you buy on the way down, even before it bottoms out, you will make money. Buying in at the end of yesterday, which I did, will pay off.

Wow, you both missed the point entirely.

How about this example: the dot-com crash started in 2000, accelerated after 9-11, and didn’t bottom out until 2003. That’s three years. It was maybe 4 years before we recovered a reasonable amount. The NASDAQ index actually took 13 years to top its bloated 2000 value. If you needed money before your investments recovered, or you lost your nerve, it would suck for you.

R225, here is the site you want to ask your question on. There are a lot of very knowledgeable people there. They focus on index funds, especially Vanguard funds.

If you invested in the Dow index in 1929, it would be 30 years before the index recovered to again reach about the same level. It was 1990 before the Dow reached and permanently stayed above that level! That’s 60 years.

I suspect the site I’m using is not counting dividends, but I can’t tell. I know this decline was very rough, but 60 years seems longer than I’ve heard before.

How can people NOT think this is a bubble? I remember people arguing with me years before the housing bubble popped that that market wasn't a bubble, too. It just seems so obvious that the stock market right now is the exact same thing.

R239, I think you are correct about not including dividends.

A lot of sleezy financial salespeople use that trick too. They will compare the returns of their product (for example an annuity) to a chat of the S&P 500 but neglect to mention they ignore the dividends.

Remember - we live in a time of rising inequality. More and more of the returns from economic growth accrue to capital, not labor. The single best way for an individual to benefit from this trend is to invest in a low-cost index fund, like Vanguard's VTSAX.

I have several thousand in cash waiting for the next drop. I also gave am REIT that pays a lot in dividends. The market is not for the faint of heart. Millions will get burned by Trump and his deficit.

To a chat = to that

Another down day for the Dow, -89.

Good, R245. Not far enough though.

Come on, indices! How low can you go? Let’s DO this!

R246, I think we’ll get there, eventually. Trump is a fool and we’ll eventually get kicked in the head. I think he’ll cause a recession eventually, when everyone clearly sees that the emperor has no clothes.

Dow surges 550 points higher in best day since March as earnings fuel rally

But the volume was light. Last week it was not. Is there a secret beat market already? Many companies on S&P -20% already?

^^bear market instead of beat market

The Dow is up to 25,444 today, or 0.26%. It’s up to where it first was about 11 Jan 2018, and last was about 15 Aug, 2018. So the drop the last two weeks really isn’t too much to be moved by. Even if it’s disappointing. If it fell back a couple year’s worth, then I’d be upset(er).

I’ve been selling piecemeal all year, in anticipation of a worse shake-up, but there really is no knowing. I think we have further down to go, before the end of next year.

Do people know who Cassandra was?

Paul Krugman keeps praying for a recession "with no end in sight" so he won't look like such an ass.

2016-11-09

It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.

Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.

It’s true that we’ve been adding jobs at a pretty good pace and are quite close to full employment. But we’ve been doing O.K. only thanks to extremely low interest rates. There’s nothing wrong with that per se. But what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.

Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.

So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.

I think Krugman’s right, though. Triggers for a downturn are:

A stock market fall from a bubble fulled from ill-timed tax cuts when tax hikes were more properly due.

Ditto, from irresponsible regulation cuts.

Trade wars driven by spite, lacking a strategic plan.

Appropriate Interest rate increases.

Political instability due to the Mueller criminal investigation and other investigations.

Incompetent leadership especially if an international crisis occurs, including an international economic crisis.

Domestic unrest ginned-up by Trump.

[quote]It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Unlike Trump, and unlike our trolls, Krugman has acknowledged he got it badly wrong, that he let his emotions override his judgment. What's your excuse?

I made the same emotional mistake as Krugman and it has certainly cost me money, but I still can’t shake this overwhelming sense of impending doom. Better to be out of the stock market a year too soon than a day too late?

R256, it depends on what your timeframe is for needing the money. If you're in it for the long haul and you're fine with staying invested for another ten years or more, don't pull your money out at all but leave it in. That assumes that you have a balanced portfolio and that you have a tolerance for risk.

If you need the money out sooner and you can't afford to take the hit of an economic downturn, then yes, you should probably start moving it into safer investments.

I think we’ll fall at least 20% from here before 2020, for the reasons stated in R254.

Bump

Down again, and we briefly broke below the 25,000 threshold.

because of the fear trump has evoked here and world wide

the whole globe is fukd and a recession is eminent.

HAPPY NOW DEPLORABLES ??????

R261 Dump is amping up the FEAR rhetoric big time.

Boldface lying!!!

I just love trump's "winning"!

It was interesting when, earlier this year, Trump pointed to the skyrocketing stockmarket as proof that he was doing the right then and then, immediately, it cratered. Nothing suspicious about that at all...

Nope, nothing suspicious because that wasn't what happened, R264.

I have an appointment with my financial advisers today... should be an interesting conversation.

R265 Actually it did happen. I work on Wall Street, dear.

Actually, it didn't happen, dear, because the President has been touting the stock market performance for well over a year now.

That dotard is NOT the President.

R260. Yes, buy low, sell on the spike

[quote]Breaking news! Dow just tumbled

OMG! Did she break a hip?

[quote] Dump is amping up the FEAR rhetoric big time.

[quote] Boldface lying!!!

For the love of Mike, that’s ALL he does.

I am freaking out over my small retirement portfolio. Are we headed for another major recession? I've got $250K in IRAs managed by Fidelity which has dropped to $237K in the last month. They tell me to be optimistic. Will it get back to where it was? Should I fire them? Where are the smart people putting their money?

R273, we're definitely overdue for a recession but nobody knows exactly when it will start nor how deep it will be nor how long it will last. As to your question, the answer depends on when you need the money. If you're not due to retire for another ten years or more, do nothing. We'll have a recession, we'll have a rebound, and your portfolio will come back. If you need the money sooner than that, you should already have started shifting a portion of it to safer investments.

If you have a reasonably balanced portfolio invested in low-cost index funds, and if you're not due to retire in the next 5 to 10 years, you're fine and your best approach is to continue to put money into your account and ignore the stock market ups and down.

It's been a scary month for investors. The Dow has plunged about 1,500 points, or 5.7%. That would be the index's steepest monthly percentage decline since August 2015, a period when China fears were front-and-center.

October has been even worse for the Nasdaq. The index, down 9% this month, is on track for its worst month since November 2008 when it plummeted 11%.

Winning!

I went to the supermarket this weekend to shop for an upcoming party. A lot of it was the same stuff that I bought in early summer for a party. Cases of canned soda in early summer were going for 4 cases for $10 on sale. The same soda was on sale this weekend 3 cases for $13. Looks like the aluminum tariffs kicked in. On the other hand, I got a really good deal on pork.

I'm retired two years R274. I draw on my portfolio every month and I live on that and social security. I have to live frugally and have a 60/40 bonds/stock split. If we're heading into a recession I don't want to gamble on the market and wonder if I should just put everything into bonds. Fucking Trump and his tariffs.

Ah, yeah, that's different, R277. If you really need the money, and it sounds like you do, you should probably go more conservative in your investments. I'd check with a financial adviser or go to the Bogleheads forum to ask for help. I'll bow out because I don't have any expertise in your situation. Good luck!

The tariffs are a bitch. Farmland deplorables are pissed but they are terrified to speak out. They fear they will face retaliation from local thugs aka republican groups.

S&P is down for 5 straight day.

I warned all y'all this was coming!

I told you back in May the market would tank in October at this time. Last month, I pulled most of my money out of stocks and shifted to bonds and cash.

My portfolio lost half it's worth in 2008 and I don't have another ten years to get back to where I am now.

So I took my gains and got the Fuck out. My financial advisor told me I was crazy. But I was right!

I have seen Nosferatu depositing cash at the bank’s night depository. I believe him!

R273, the Dow has been at this level numerous times already this year, so it’s not a disaster, even if painful. It helps if you’ve been “all in” for at least a few years. Hurts if you have not.

Read my post at R254, since you asked. Sounds like you should sell a bit. To the point where you are comfortable. Firing Fido will not help things. Isn’t your account self-directed? Maybe, fire yourself, haha.

I sold yesterday, selling more today.

Good for you r281.

I don’t think it’s been at this level in a while.

Link to support claim?

Why isn’t this market decline big news? It was all we heard about when it was hitting high marks. Are people afraid of a panic?

R285 it was Breaking News this AM on CNN and then nada.

Just found this: fasten your seatbelts:

When markets drop, I buy, not sell.

Per request, R284, I see about 6 troughs this year below today’s close.

r289, if you don't know who predicts the future on DataLounge, you should not be posting. It's not Cassandra.

Hi, R290,

it’s ok, I’m used to not being believed, for 3000 years.

Still right, though.

I think this volatility, such as today’s wild ride, is also a bad sign

We’re all so very sorry Cassie!

[quote] it was Breaking News this AM on CNN and then nada.

EVERYTHING is Breaking News on CNN.

[quote] R288: When markets drop, I buy, not sell.

Ok, Warren Buffett, have you bought back in, then?

Obviously, it’s wise to “buy low, sell high”, but it is impossible to know, in advance, what is low and what is high. I contend that the market, essentially, has not really dropped yet. This is all just static, gaining attention for being annoying, before the market goes ka-flouie.

I’m down about 6%. I think one should buy back in at 16% or lower.

The Russell 3000 is still up 16% for the year.

It’s a meltdown today. The NASDAQ is down over 2% today.

I think Trump was screaming at the Fed Chairman (who wasn’t present) last night. Damn, the man screams a lot. The Chairman doesn’t personally care, I don’t think he can be fired. I suppose that, and the NYC bombingsare affecting the markets. Plus a-l-l the other stuff.

So far, anyway...

Ugh, worried for the retirement funds of my parents, who are 74 and 61 respectively. I've been telling them to go very conservative for months.

Let it crash. I he stock market is like casinos. It’s all a gamble.

Not really. In the casino, the house always wins. In the stock market, if you're invested in low-cost index funds and you let your investments ride for years, you win.

R297, Trump gave a ridiculous interview to the Wall Street Journal (published this morning) in which he sniveled about the Fed Chairman raising interest rates. But Obama got zero interest rates, it's so unfair!

Ouch. Dow down 608 (2.41%). Nasdaq down 329 (4.43%). S&P 500 down 84.59 (3.09%).

He really is the world's biggest snow flake. I like how he whined last week for the press not heralding the 500 point jump one day when he completely ignored the two day 1100 drop less than a week earlier.

Nasdaq worst day since 2011.

Today really did hurt, despite being 40% in cash. Down 2.36%. My mixed bond/stock funds didn't protect me. They were down over 2% too.

Futures report a small rebound tomorrow.

NY Times reports S&P is now negative for the year.

Ford to lose $1 billion this year over steel tariffs.

And we're up today.

The market can't seem to find its footing. With the Fed raising rates and the tariffs hurting profits it seems to me that we should be trending down.

Extreme volatility isn't exactly a good thing either, r309.

A boom that leads to volatility that leads to a crash is the whole Republican game. We're on script.

Amazon just reported disappointing sales numbers, and since they're the nation's biggest retailer, that's a bad sign for the economy. Consumers are pulling back, despite the stronger economy. It'll be interesting to see how the holiday shopping season shapes up.

I think consumers are finally feeling the pinch at the gas pump, as well as overall costs going up everywhere.

After hours:

Amazon: 1,632.25 -149.92 (-8.41%)

Alphabet (Google): 1,043.00 -52.57 (-4.80%)

Nasdaq is likely to take a hit tomorrow.

Thanx, R313!

And we're down again, but it looks like the S&P and Russell are doing better than the Dow and Nasdaq.

Hooray, another bad day for the markets. Good way to end the week.

And now we're in "correction" territory.

Another catastrophic fall today. It’s cute they’re calling it a “correction.”

Correction has a very specific meaning, r318. So, yes, it's a correction.

Calling it a "correction" doesn't give me comfort.

The Secret Lesbians prefer you use the term "Correction".

It's not supposed to, r320.

Jump out your windows!!

Has Trump blamed this on Obama yet?

I've lost $30 thousand over the last 3 months.

!!!!!!!!!!

It will likely depend on what happens next week. If we have a strong recovery next week, then this wasn't a true correction and we're back to the status quo, still expecting that correction and downturn but not knowing when.

On the other hand, if next week, is a repeat of this one, then it's likely to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, as spooked people pull out of the market, causing stocks to tumble even more and resulting in a true correction, possibly even a major one.

[quote] R324: Has Trump blamed this on Obama yet?

He’s already blamed the Fed Chairman. He never takes responsibility for anything.

He took responsibility when it seemed the market was on an endless rise.

Assuming the Democrats retake the House, you know what will happen next: Republicans, not just Trump, will blame it on them.

Have you all staked out a corner to sell apples on?

Today’s S&P ended at 2668.

My weighted average that I sold at was 2696. Basically the same as today. Since I’ve been braying about it, I thought I would report in. No knowing if it was a good idea to sell, but of course I think so, or wouldn’t ha e done so. It was about half my investments.

R318 the Dow fell 1.19% That's hardly "catastrophic". Don't over-dramatize things.

It hashta fall another 10% before we can gripe and be truly justified, IMHO.

This thread fascinates me.

Me too R335!

The bear market is here and another 10% drop is coming.

Thanks Trumpkins!

Today is the anniversary of the biggest crash that sent us into the Depression. The rich and the big money have already left the building, again. Are you going to be left holding the bag just like the little guy was back then?

Personal spending and income are out at 8:30 today, if it’s bad, fasten your seatbelts, cunts.

I started out with $286K in the market last year. This past Friday it was down to $230K, split between bonds and blue chip stock. It's all I have, with SS, to live on. I'm retired. I draw $1500/mo. from my "portfolio" and about $1800/mo. from SS. I'm thinking maybe I should liquidate and buy real estate. These articles scare me, and I'm dreading the open today. If I took a big chunk for a down payment, my mortgage payments would be less than I'm paying now in rent and I'm wondering if it's a good idea.

[quote]I'm dreading the open today.

Futures are up.

Real estate is on its way down too, R 340. Why would you buy real estate now when it is high and will go down too. Your money will be all tied up.

You're probably right R342. But I'm going to need to move someplace sooner rather than later. Markets look good so far though!

And we're up.

There’s a desperation to try to turn this situation around with these early numbers, but it’s just that. Desperation.

I thought people invested more in real estate when stocks are down? Of course, the problem is that it is not a very liquid investment, more for long term. If you own your home, is it still a good time to borrow against the equity?

I'm no expert, but with interest rates going up, maybe it would be good to hold off borrowing against the equity of your home. That could be a slippery slope... been there, myself.

R346, it depends. Here in the Pacific Northwest, housing is also in something of a bubble. If the stock market plunges, there is an expectation that real estate would tumble, as well. As for borrowing against the equity in a home, it depends on what you want to do with the money and what kind of interest rate you can get.

You really should see a financial advisor, as it sounds like your tolerance for risk does not match your current situation. You can always sell off the investments and go with something safe like a money market account or CDs. The tradeoff there is that you will make a lower return on that investment but the upside is that you won't see a 20% loss in your investments.

The smart thing to do? Don't take advice from anonymous people online, particularly here on DL.

Aaaaannndds it’s tanking again. Early gains gone.

My hunch is that it will be back below 20k by January and then should settle out around 15k by spring. It’s always seemed to me that the real number is about 15-16k and the rest is because billionaires have nowhere else to put their money. But when it starts to cave they will find somewhere else.

I wonder how much the market is being affected by Trump’s claim that there are no tariffs, as tariffs affect the market

They can put it right here r350.

[quote]Dow just tumbled 700 points

I'll tumble for you!

It looks like Trump is getting ready for even more tarrifs, r351, which is why it tanked today. Isn't the tarrfs the brainchild of that idiot advisor of his -- Navarro?

goddamn trump and his tariffs!

Yup, the plans for the next round of tariffs are being firmed up. As R354 noted, the market tanked after Bloomberg reported on this.

Who’s paying him off for the tarrrifs? This guy doesn’t do anything without being heavily compensated.

Who benefits from the tarrifs? That’s who is paying him.

Wow it’s really falling off a cliff. Get ready to move grandma in.

Just in time for Election Day.

If I recall correctly, r357, its Peter Navarro who is advising Trump on this. Navarro is said to be a batshit crazy populist who really hates China. He's so crazy and his world view is so skewed that Gary Cohen and Steve Mnunchin did some maneuvering to have him removed from Trump's orbit.

I'm not sure that's correct, r357, although I think you would be right most of the time. In this case, I think this is more about nationalism and dominance and I don't think Trump has to be paid to espouse those views. He has been claiming for years that the U.S. is getting a bad deal from pretty much everyone and it was one of the centerpieces of his campaign: that he was going to negotiate new deals across the board with "America First" as his motto.

In Trump's world, there is no such thing as a win-win situation. It's not enough that he wins or the U.S. wins, the other party has to visibly lose. Hence, tariffs, even though few people think they are a good idea.

Well, today's drop just wiped out the Nasdaq gains for the year.

I just started my 401K a few years ago (I'm 33) and while I'm trying not to obsess, mine has gone down every month this year. I'm at the point where I'm putting in more money than I'm gaining. I tried looking at other investment options that are less risky, but every single option is going down as well. Some less than others; I may switch to those. But Jesus. I try to be financially responsible, but I might as well burn money for warmth this winter; it will net me more than the stock market.

R363, the best thing you can do is keep doing what you're doing and keep investing. You're only 33, which means that you won't need to draw on those funds for decades. This is just numbers on a spreadsheet, not a real loss. I've lost as much as 30% of my overall net worth in a two-year stretch only to see it come roaring back a year or two later.

I've ridden out the tech stock crash of 2000, the 9/11 crash, the 2007/2008 crash, among others, and I'm still at a roughly 7.5% return on my investments overall. Don't panic and don't stop investing. You're not "burning money," you're investing for your future.

R363 - A few months ago my investment savvy neighbour took most of his funds out of the stock market and invested in government bonds. He is very savvy about the markets and has his own advisor (loves to invest etc) so this tells me something.

R363, in your case you want the market to crash. Keep buying stocks because you are buying low. Down the road the market will eventually go up and you will have a nice profit. At your age don't bother with bonds, put all your money into stocks, put it on auto pilot and forget about it.

I really put effort into studying investing so I could retire early. I wish I had done it sooner, but II was still able to retire at 56.

You will do well.

R363, here's an anecdote for you. I opened an IRA in 2008 and started with $3000. By the end of the year, I was down to just $2000. By the end of 2010, I was back to over $3100 of that original investment. By the end of 2012, it was over $4,000. I put more money into that account during the downturn and it has come roaring back in the years since. I'm at a net return on my investment of nearly 12% on that account.

So you can either look on your net loss for the year and think of it as burning money or you can look it as the foundation for future growth. Trying to time the market, unless you're one hell of a financial whiz, is not likely to be a good investment strategy.

I don’t know how I can be 45% in bonds but still down so much. But I am.

R368, if you are in bond funds (as opposed to individual bonds) then your fund price is dropping because interest rates are rising.

Down another 250 points.

Thanks Donnie Dotard.

I had MSNBC on for several hours today and I didn't hear this mentioned once.

I just want to add that I am upset that this isn't being talked about at all. At least on the programs I am watching.

I knew it would tank by Fall and here we are. There is no confidence and big investors are pulling their money out.

It's becoming a concern because it could mean to US is heading into a recession in the next year.

The Wind of Change:

Trump (wrongly) blames the dip on the mid-terms:

The Stock Market is up massively since the Election, but is now taking a little pause - people want to see what happens with the Midterms. If you want your Stocks to go down, I strongly suggest voting Democrat. They like the Venezuela financial model, High Taxes & Open Borders!

David Frum responds:

Trump counter-offers the Peronist Argentina model: high tariffs, big spending, huge fiscal deficits, lawless arbitrary presidential power.

R377 Unreal. How can the supposed POTUS tweet something blatantly untrue and speculative? When does the free speech line get crossed?!

trump will say anything and nothing is too low down for him. I hate that he gets away with it.

It doesn’t, R378. No one should blindly believe everything POTUS or anyone else says. People lie. People mislead. They are free to do it and everyone is free not to trust them.

It's funny, r377. He blames it on the midterms yet he makes a vague statement before the market opens that he expects a good trade deal with China, which made the market open higher. He knows he owns this shit but won't admit it.

Nasdaq still having worst month since Oct 2008, according to CNBC

Shades of 2008 abound.

The ignorant fool Trump is the reason for this downturn. Putin hates our country and he instructs Trump.

Early morning gains collapsing again.

He's been juicing and tanking the market on purpose so his inner circle can profit from it. That dog ain't hunting much longer.

[quote]Get ready to move grandma in.

Grandma better get ready for me to move in.

It's all Obama's fault!

Or Hillary's.

Nah, it will be because the House went Democratic in the midterm elections. "See, the stock market was in fantastic shape until Democrats took the House!"

#Russia's state TV: Dep. Dean of World Politics at Moscow's State University: "Unfortunately, Trump didn't reach the level of Abraham Lincoln & didn't drive the U.S. to civil war. That's sad. Hopefully, he'll become Herbert Hoover and at least drive them into a Great Depression."

Only 45% more to fall. See you at the bottom, bitches!

Trump is purposely ignoring all of this

R365 No one would invest all their money in government bonds, unless he doesn't want any growth at all in his savings. I think he's over-ESTimated this tariff caused (almost) market correction.

All was predicted by economists who said that the tax cuts and juiced budget would help the economy for just one year.

It's amazing how financial news outlets will say the market is back after one day. I even saw false Wall Street prophets say on record today that the Dow will go up to 30K. What world are they living in? We are in a situation of global instability. The U.S. is in major debt. Interest rates are rising. Tacitus are over. We are overdue for an even bigger correction and Donnie Darko will be known as the President who caused The Great Depression, if he lasts that long. You'll see - one event will cause the steepest drop in history. Maybe nuclear, maybe on our own soil.

But Eleanor, you’re dead! You do have a street named after you in in Marblehead, if that’s any consolation.

I'm personally still waiting for Bitcoin to hit $1,000,000 as some dumbass on this site claimed it would. Still waiting!

Unless you're into illicit activities, I don't know how anyone could think bitcoins are a good idea.

I'm putting this here because it has to do with the accumulation of wealth:

What billionaires want: the secret influence of America’s 100 richest.

Our new, systematic study of the 100 wealthiest Americans indicates that Buffett, Gates, Bloomberg et al are not at all typical. Most of the wealthiest US billionaires – who are much less visible and less reported on – more closely resemble Charles Koch. They are extremely conservative on economic issues. Obsessed with cutting taxes, especially estate taxes – which apply only to the wealthiest Americans. Opposed to government regulation of the environment or big banks. Unenthusiastic about government programs to help with jobs, incomes, healthcare, or retirement pensions – programs supported by large majorities of Americans. Tempted to cut deficits and shrink government by cutting or privatizing guaranteed social security benefits.

The answer is simple: billionaires who favor unpopular, ultraconservative economic policies, and work actively to advance them (that is, most politically active billionaires) stay almost entirely silent about those issues in public. This is a deliberate choice. Billionaires have plenty of media access, but most of them choose not to say anything at all about the policy issues of the day. They deliberately pursue a strategy of what we call “stealth politics”.

Citizen's United has made it easier for the billionaires' stealthiness.

It appears to be worse than we think...

R401 not surprised. Also lots of Americans are struggling:

I sold out large positions in March for the exact reasons cited above. Orders are possibly going to be filled by December because I picked such low valuations!

A recession will exterminate Trump. Good riddance!

62% of jobs don't support middle-class life after accounting for cost of living.

Obligatory disclaimer: The problem did not originate with Trump. That said, his policies are making things worse.

One thing that always sticks in my head...I’m 58. As long as I can remember, people have been complaining about jobs and the economy. It’s always bad, and never enough. Even in the best of times. So, is that what’s going on today?

I can’t tell, because I’ve been fortunate enough to manage well. I did grow up in a cash-poor household, though. Not destitute poor, but working class or such. Hand me downs and patched clothes, instead of new, that kind of thing. Never new electronics. Oh, and at dinner, I remember that if you didn’t grab food fast, all that was left was brussel sprouts and cauliflower, but at least we did have food. I also remember Mom using milk to stretch a can of beef-a-roni; and really thin bologna sandwiches.

Today I’m doing fine and can’t tell if the complaints about the economy are the same old thing, or really something new.

Uh oh. Get ready for Black Friday. Apple is sinking 7% in after hours due to forecasted weak holiday sales.

Apple no longer controls the Tech-Retail stock -

Let's end the week on a good note, Wall Street. C'mon.... you can do it.

Futures are down.

Tomorrow might be tough for Nasdaq

For better or worse, Apple (and Apple shares owned by Berkshire Hathaway) prop up the stock market. If it goes down, the whole market goes down. When you realize our economy is very dependent on a $750 luxury phone ... Hmm.

R411 Who doesn't need an iPhone XS Max for $1,449 with 512GB of storage?!

Apparently not enough of struggling middle class and working poor Americans.

This is on the stock market’s iPod.

iPhones are bought on credit now, just like everything else, through programs with the phone companies or Apple itself. They extend “credit” to everyone, and they know they’ll pay it because everyone “needs” a phone. It’s more important to people than anything else. So the middle class and poor aren’t an issue for Apple because they’ll all gladly give up something to eat to make that $19.99 monthly payment and have an iPhone.

Very strong jobs report out this morning, we'll see if that offsets the troubles at Apple.

Apple is going to ruin my day (metaphorically). Fidelity funds are awash in Apple shares. It’s served me well for years, though. I enjoyed the ride up. Now, [italic]le deluge. [/italic]

It looks like the jobs numbers are offsetting the Apple numbers, so the markets are down but not by that much. It will be interesting to see where this day ends up.

[QUOTE]Apple is sinking 7% in after hours due to forecasted weak holiday sales.

Who would have thought that a $1400 cell phone wouldn't fly off the shelves?

R415 Glad it was strong but under the surface are people earning enough to survive with one work?

And we're down in the -300 range. I think the best word for the market these days is "volatile."

Isn’t the “great” economy only temporary due to one-time tax cuts? I still think the fundamentals of the market are weak, and stocks are still overpriced.

how dare they slow down the phones after new ones are released! Fucking cunts! glad i'm not crazy about apple products.

Am I the only one here without a cell phone? Hate those motherfuckers.

The tax cuts aren't providing the growth that the GOP promised.

[quote]If you put all this together, then, you get a picture of an economy that’s growing at around 3 percent right now because of all the short-term stimulus it’s getting, but will soon go back to the 2 to 2.5 percent it was at before because that stimulus isn’t changing companies' long-term behavior like the Trump administration thought it would. They were convinced that cutting the corporate income tax would make investing here so attractive that money would come pouring in from overseas. That would then fund the investments we needed to increase growth today, and the fruits of it — higher productivity — would increase growth tomorrow as well.

...

[quote]The big picture, though, is how little Trump has done to change our long-term economic outlook. His tax cut certainly seems to have juiced growth this past year, but since it wasn’t paid for, it has also made the Federal Reserve raise rates enough that its net effect should be pretty close to zero by the end of the next year or so. Unless, of course, companies do start investing far, far more than they are right now.

[quote]Except, well, it’s not. The problem is that while the tax-cutting story the Trump administration was telling might be true for a small, open economy like, say, Bermuda’s, it was never going to be for a large and slightly closed one like our own. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that we’re seeing perhaps a modest increase in investment, but not the bonanza we were promised.

R424 CNN and MSNBC are touting the robust jobs numbers. The economy is booming!

But for whom?

I wish they woukd give the complete picture: Wages and benefits are stagnant.

Most Americans are struggling to pay for their soaring healthcare premiums and deductibles which can be as much as a second monthly bill for rent or a mortgage. Increased food costs. Increased childcare and college tuition costs. Saving for retirement is way behind.

Middle class is shrinking.

Most Americans don't even have $500 saved up for an emergency.

To be fair, R425, wages in October increased 3.1% from a year earlier, the biggest year-over-year gain for hourly earnings since 2009.

Of course, the average worker is still really far in the hole from the last 40 years of wages not keeping pace with inflation.

R425 here and R426 is definitely correct.

Guess I'm just pissed because wages and benefits are so behind for most Americans while Dump is taking allllll the credit for the booming economy all the while making his wealthy cronies and himself even wealthier. It's just unfair.

Agree. Most pundits breathlessly tout current numbers but leave out any talk of the enormous deficit, the fact that the job market will contract when interest rates rise, etc. Most Wall Street types know that the stock market will crash but still tell people to invest.

R423, I don't have one either. Have never found a reason to have one.

You would probably be surprised by how useful a smart phone can be. It is one of those things that you have to buy and try, so you can learn how useful it can be.

Smartphones are useful up to a point. The iPhone is basically an addiction people are willing to buy on credit. It's a red flag that they are going to stop releasing numbers of units sold. Boeing is also vastly overrated at over $300 a share. These hundred dollar to over a thousand dollar evaluations are not sustainable when the market keeps dragging down.

It's not a good sign that millions more employed leads to a down market. People have been warned, but never listen.

I think a lot of people are going to be in for a rude awakening when they do their taxes next year.

R431, increased employment is not necessarily good news to Wall Street. A tight job market might push wages up; that means less money for the shareholders.

True but Apple was the big drag. Brokers are telling clients the market may crash sometime next year, but seem to forget we are at November. The election is just going to exacerbate instability and then you have panic selling. The charts are there but the resistance is fierce due to unrealistic expectations of constant profit from stocks.

[quote] unrealistic expectations of constant profit from stocks.

Could fit that into the corporate world in general -- the amount of growth the big companies want each year so the CEO and shareholders get more money is not sustainable. There are tricks they can do to make it seem like the profit is increasing every year (largely eliminating salary), but at some point it is going to turn into a house of cards and all the weight being at the top is going to cause it to collapse.

[quote]I think a lot of people are going to be in for a rude awakening when they do their taxes next year.

I'm pretty sure that I'm in the 15% to 20% of folks whose taxes went up, so I sent extra money to the IRS in quarterly payments to make damn sure I had it covered. If I'm wrong, I wasted my money but will get it back in a refund. If I'm right, my taxes will be pretty close to break even, which is where you want them to be.

Ouch ... that was brutal. I just updated my financial accounts for October and found that I lost $70,000. I'm now down for the year.

So much for all of our trolls bragging about how the stock market was going to win the election for Trump.

Dump has gotten away with crowing about the stock market for far too long.

It's so much more complex and I appreciate other posters weighing in on what's involved. Thank you.

R435 Correct. I work for a big Fortune 500 company. All they have been doing since the big tax cut is terminating high tenure workers and giving 2% cost of living "raises" to much lower paid new hires. The millions in tax cuts went to stock buy backs that lined the pockets of CEO and VP's.. Trickle down = we piss on you.

Not to mention that stock buybacks when the stock price is high is really a horrible fiscal policy that mostly benefits the company's executives. The shareholders are only marginally helped by that. If you really want to put money into the pockets of all of your shareholders, you do it via dividends.

Doing buybacks when the stock is cheap makes some sense. Doing it when the stock is at its peak? Not so much. It's horribly expensive and offers little return on that cash.

Can someone explain to economics dummy how this works?

[quote]It's not a good sign that millions more employed leads to a down market.

to an economics dummy*

Apple gave me an addition on my house, a swimming pool and a deck back in 2010.

I'm guessing that he's talking about mixed signals in the economy, R442. There are both positive and negative signs.

R441, one factor is that the stock market is not the economy.

The stock market is a leading indicator. Unemployment is a lagging indicator.

Investors try to anticipate how companies will be doing in the future. It the market thinks a downturn is coming, it might sell-off in advance, while company stocks are still high-priced. “Buy on the rumour, sell on the news”, as they say.

Then, after an economy slows, this is when companies lay-off workers.

Recessions are defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. This means that by the time the Fed declares an official recession to be happening, the economy has already contracted for 6 months. So that’s a lagging indicator, too.

Interest rates will kill the market and jobs.

I see a bad moon rising...

Crash is underway with more losses tomorrow.

What will the markets do with the election?

R449, I assume not much, since nothing is a surprise.

Modest rally. The market will be pleased that nothing was a surprise.

Futures are at a 200 point rise.

I think investors are glad the elections are over and they can get back to business.

Tech stocks are way up, except Facebook. NASDAQ is up 1.8% as of 11:40 am. I think it will fall before the close, for a modest rise, but it’ll be a good day for aggressive investors.

The market is moving up, I hope most here did not sell their equities and turn a paper loss into a real loss.

Holy cow! We had an up, up, up day. Excellent. Dow = 545+ Nasdaq = 194+ I guess the election had a positive effect.

I’m up 1% today. I’ve moved a lot to cash over months, so I missed out on some of the fun 😗. You really need nerves of steel if you actively manage your own investments.

The market had a giant leap today but nothing really changed.

Yup. It remains a highly volatile market and I don't see that changing anytime soon. The real correction is still hanging over our heads. As with everyone else, I really wish I knew when that would be.

Actually, I don't want everyone to know; I just want me to know.

Yep, R459, if everybody knew when a correction would happen, it already would have happened.

I’m retired with no connections to the pros at this point, though I used to work in IT for financial companies. My belief is that people like me can’t compete with the pros, though that doesn’t mean I can’t profit. I’ve done pretty well, nonetheless. I generally believe in being widely diversified and aggressively invested in the American economy. I try to resist the impulse to time the market.

I have invested in international mutual funds, but only in regions where I would hear news about them. That means Europe, but not the Far East is S. America, as I don’t keep up with the news from there.

I don’t usually count on bear conditions because that’s less common than a bull market. Though, I’m wary now,, as I explained earlier, in R79, R254, and elsewhere, so I’m half in cash at this point.

Moving down today. Oopsie

Big selloff today in the Nasdaq. Ouch. See above about volatility. Expect more ups and downs. Looks like I picked the wrong year to quit sniffing glue....

Drain the swamp, not the pocketbook!

It’s a mess now with oil glut and China. The US is strong but in debt. I don’t think corporate buybacks are going to last. Trump is destabilizing.

There will be no peace with Trump in office. I think he’s a sadist and loves to see people suffer.

NPDs do everything to kill peace.

What is an NPD?

Narcissistic Personality Disorder, I assume, R467.

Is the US just planning to invade other countries and take their money rather than dealing with the trillion dollar deficit? I don’t understand what the game plan is for when the tax cuts wear off.

the plan was to cut SS and Medicare . But since the thugs got crushed, they plan to scream that it's the democrats fault for the next two years.

THEN they will try again.

Stocks fall, US crude posts longest losing streak on record.

Bad day today.

Wow, it's really taking a shit today (I thought it was supposed to be closed for Veterans Day)

SE not closed today?

Ugh. I wished I'd taken all my profits when I had the chance. I'm getting tired of the roller coaster.

the orange shtigibbon is going down, but not without a fight, so constitutional crisis imminent, very bad for business

Another 600 down for the Dow! Tech stocks and a rising dollar are causing investors to get out of equities.

Good time to buy, I guess.

The Russel 3000, a small stock index, and NASDAQ index, were both last at this level at the beginning of May, this year. It might technically be a correction, but it’s really not a disaster. It feels a lot like a disaster, so I’m condoling myself as much as anyone else.

It's gonna be a RED chrismas.

It’s OK, the 2008 Bush crash destroyed my portfolio.

Sorry to hear, R480. That’s tough!

Can’t it fall further? No one takes Trump seriously that Democrats are to blame. They are not even sworn in yet. The Great Recession of 2019 is at our doorstep.

R482, I think I’ll fall further. We haven’t seen anything yet.

The market is finally waking up to the fact that Trump is a fucking moron.

R482, it absolutely can fall further. Nobody knows whether this is the beginning of a major correction, with further falling to go, or whether we're just in a period of high volatility that will settle down in a few weeks.

Anyone who did know something like that would be very wealthy and retired by now and unlikely to want to share their secret.

R480, my portfolio dropped by something like 30% but I kept it as is and even added to it. I've more than made up that amount in the years since. If you're a long way from retirement and you've got a reasonably balanced portfolio, you should always ride out downturns.

I lost 60% of my savings in the big crash. Oddly, the same week that the S&P 500 index returned to its pre-crash high, my savings returned to their pre-crash high, too. It was just an odd coincidence.

Where is the futures troll?

What is the futures troll?

It is falling again today. Drumpf is at fault, no one else. He likes to blame everyone else, but anyone with a brain knows this is just the beginning of a market crash.

Since the first of the year, I’ve sold about 55% of my investments. Slowly in small tranches. I usually don't do well when I try to time the market but this time, so far, so good.

I have a “dummy” portfolio on yahoo that mimics the way my savings are invested. But it mimics the way my investments were before I started selling off, as I haven’t updated it. It reported a loss of $35,000 yesterday, I only lost $15,000. That hurt, but not as much as otherwise.

I'm sitting on a shit ton of capital gains in individual stocks. I want to move the individual stocks over to a stock index fund. I am waiting for a hard crash to start the migration.

This downward spiral may go on for a while. I think it's the tariffs and the rising interest rates along with the uncertainty trump is creating that is causing the drop.

Yeah, R491, me too. I’ve been selling, like I wrote, but mostly in my IRA and 401k accounts, so I’m not paying taxes on the cap gains.

I’m in mutual funds so they will make more distributions in December, and they are taxable. There’s no way to know now, how much that will be.

[quote]It is falling again today. Drumpf is at fault, no one else. He likes to blame everyone else, but anyone with a brain knows this is just the beginning of a market crash.

Are we sure about this? Which stocks are falling specifically? I’m not doubting you — I want to believe it’s Trump’s fault — but I just want to learn the details so I don’t look stupid when arguing with trump supporters later.

R493 You'll look stupid arguing with them in the first place. Crazy isn't a good look for anyone.

It's not really Trump's fault, other than the general instability caused by his tariffs, trade policies, and embarrassingly chaotic administration. He doesn't deserve any credit for the stock market growth and he doesn't deserve (much) blame for the inevitable correction.

But if you're arguing with a true Trumpazoid who insists that the stock market growth was all because of Trump, just point out to him that it works both ways.

Thank you. So what caused the drop yesterday (and today?)?

R496, with things like this, where so much is based on emotion rather than verifiable data, it's hard to be sure. And that's even more true at a time when the market is highly volatile, seeing wide swings both up and down. It doesn't take much to panic investors, turning what should be a small one-day drop into a large one.

Yesterday, at least one analyst thinks that the tech stock issue was the report that Apple had cut back orders from one of its supplies. That brought down Apple, as well as the chipmakers that supply Apple and others, and that inevitably affected other tech stocks, as well.

That same analyst thinks that the financial stocks slid because of expectations that Democrats will be a bit less deregulation-friendly. (He doesn't explain why people reacted on Monday instead of last week.) Those two areas of the market, tech and financial, were responsible for much of the downturn.

Other individual stocks were impacted by news about their specific company. The bottom line is that, absent something like a Federal Reserve report or several companies reporting quarterly results, it's always guesswork as to what is driving the market. It's not like anyone is polling individual or corporate investors, asking them why they were selling.

To demonstrate that nobody really knows, here's another article about the same one-day drop and it reached totally different conclusions about why the markets fell. They think it had to do with oil production / prices, the U.S. trade war with China, and the rising dollar.

I think the rising dollar and sinking oil are closely related.

Also, many trades are now computer generated by algorithms. Computerized trading.

And down again.

Help me, DataLounge!

I invest in mutual funds. I have some that are down. I could sell them for a short term loss. OR, I could hold them a couple more weeks when there will be distributions of Cap Gains and Dividends. Then, I’d probably sell afterward, as the loss might be helpful to me this year. What’s a better thing to do, for tax purposes? Thoughts? Use your noggin. Thank you.

Down another 200. Investors are running scared from Trump.

The S&P first passed this point, on the way up, about Dec 2017. It’s down about ~14% from its peak. That’s correction territory. I think it looks worse than it is.

Wr502, what federal tax bracket are you in? What about state taxes?

Here is an article that might help you decide.

Thanks, R505. I’ll read it later.

I’m in the 12% fed bracket. I’m not going to worry about state taxes for the purposes of this question. Besides, if I learn something useful, I hope to use it every year, forward, so it’s not just about this year.

I should add, that I’m right at the top of the12% bracket and could be pushed over it to the 22% bracket.

As far as I can tell, corporations are flush with cash, but they haven't been investing. Inventories are rising in many businesses, including autos, lots of retailers. That means that they will cancel orders from factories, which means layoffs. In spite of what Trump brags about, there hasn't been a meaningful wage increase for workers, and they are facing increases in things like health care insurance costs, which eliminates whatever tiny increases they have seen. Therefore, they are being cautious in purchases, hence the rising inventories. It's a Catch-22. If the damn corporations would pay their employees more, the employees would buy more stuff. But since the first rule of capitalism is to maximize profits, wage increases are a last resort and happen only under extreme duress, and the average worker has had a 10-20% loss in purchasing power over the past 2 decades.

All of this translates into a stock market which is overvalued. It needs correction down to the REAL value of the listed companies, not their pie-in-the-sky values. The danger is that the correction will make people nervous, they will panic and a real sell-off will occur, plunging the country into a serious recession. Trump understands nothing about business or the economy, hence his dozens of bankruptcies. We have put the economic health of the country into the hands of a madman.

That debt clock is just a ticking away.

Tick.

Tick.

Tick.

Is November the month for a huge crash?

R510, October has had the big crashes. I recall reading something once that said that the Great Depression and Great Recessions happened in Sep/Oct so that skewes our perception, and that another month, which I can’t recall, but some other month at a different time of year, has has statistically more/worse crashes.

The bottom is about to fall out. I have to warn you it will not be pretty.

Consider me warned!

Everyone hates Trump. Everyone. Rich and poor, black and white, red and blue. We are united in one and only one thing. HATE TRUMP.

Yes, the alarm bell has gone off that the economy is already cooling in the fourth quarter, global markets not doing well, housing is weak, consumer debt is at all time high, and we have a mad man as the "leader" of the free world.

The stock market is not an opinion poll on Trump. If you think it is you

R512, you know this how?

everyone hates Trump. It's impossible not to hate trump, r516

E511 the stock market crash of '87 (aka Black Monday) also occurred in October.

There is always a lag before the whole market tanks. The FANG stocks are already in major correction territory, and will fall even further.

Dow dropped almost 400 points (1.56%) today. I’m waiting until it drops to 24,000 to put my $$$ back in. Earning a guaranteed 4% in the meantime.

I took 375K off the table earlier this year. I canceled all orders because even my most imagined bottom has been nearly realized. This thread is one of the better ones for factual evidence documenting the decline. Even Goldman now says growth will be anemic in 2019.

I got lucky. A stock award vested on Friday and I immediately placed a sell order. That went through on Monday, just before the stock price tanked 12%. I saved over $4000.

During the dot com boom/bust, an aquaintence sold $75,000 in stock in his emplorer’s company, as the stock was falling. The next week, he sold ten times the number of shares, but only got about $40,000. So, during that week, he lost $665,000 in paper wealth on the shares he sold last.

It was an internet company that was a high flyer, but got it’s wings clipped.

I was down 1% today. I’ve sold %50 percent in cash, and 12% in bonds, the remainder stocks..

I love it, I am buying stock for 10% of what I could've gotten it and when it goes back up, I'll make even more money.

The problem with you lot is you BUY LOW and SELL HIGH.

You think buying high and selling before it hits its lowest point, is a good thing.

You’re supposed to Buy Low and Sell High, R525.

Icarus at R525, have you ever heard of “hubris”? No one knows where the top or bottom ever is, in advance. If they did, then that alone would change the top and bottom. It’s like the Heisenberg principle. The act of knowing the bottom and acting on that knowledge, would change it

I congratulate you on making 10% above an index mutual fund, if that’s what you’ve done. But could you have made 20%? Or 30%? Personally, as I’ve written above, I’ve been selling is small tranches since January. I’m now 50% in cash and 12% bonds, so yesterday, for example, the market was down 2% but I was only down 1%. I’m not reinvesting now, because I think the market is STILL TOO HIGH. It might seem like you’re buying “low”, but I really don’t think you are. You’re still buying “high”!

For example, the Dow first reached the current level in Jan 2018. So we’ve had a setback, but not much of one, as these things go. We could easily see it drop another 10% or 20%. Normal markets face 20% corrections frequently. We’ve got an abnormal market because we have an orange buffoon meddling in tariffs and bloviating about economic matters with ignorance, so I think we’ve got more losses ahead.

So do what you want, but don’t think youre an Illuminati and the rest of us fools, because that just shows your own ignorance and naïveté.

[quote] even my most imagined bottom has been nearly realized

Pics please.

Cassandra, the unheeded prophetess, thanks for continuing to enlighten us all!

Unfortunately, as your name implies, few or none will believe you. I, however, am taking notes . . .

Here is an interesting article about bear markets. Unfortunately, no one knows we’re in a bear market in advance. Not even me 😇. Oops, I just read the Dow is set to fall another 350 today. Fasten your seatbelts, boys!

Excerpt: What Is a Bear Market?

A bear market is described as a period when market prices drop 20% from a previous high (after a bull market, for example), typically over at least two months (60 days), in one or multiple major indices, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) or the S&P 500 .

Contrary to its counterpart bull market, a bear market signals a loss of investor confidence, an increase in pessimism in the economy or markets -- and is often accompanied by things like rising inflation, high unemployment, or a coming recession.

And while bear markets typically don't last long (most bear markets in the past have only lasted around 10-15 months), they can mean big losses. Bear markets are not the same as market corrections -- when the market drops 10% from a previous high -- but they can be started by a market crash (which happens when prices drop 10% in one or two days).

Although the Great Recession is still burned in our minds, bear markets are often more blips in the market than prolonged catastrophes -- and typically happen an average of once every 3.4 years, according to MarketWatch.

As is logical, the bear market occurs in the contraction phase of the business cycle -- so, bear markets are unlikely (and, in fact, a bull market is likely) when the business cycle is in the expansion phase.

Nasdaq expected to drop by triple digits. Dow could fall an additional 2000 points over time before recovering.

Down 400 at the open.

I recall I lost my shirt in the dot com crash of 2000-2003. It felt really prolonged and I gave up even looking at my investments because it was too depressing. It was both deep and long, and if you were in the “wrong” investments, like Oracle or Breakaway Technogies, or other NASDAQ stocks, it was painful.

The Great Recession was scary because it quickly became apparent that it was something that was completely new to me, and completely unpredictable. You had so many of the largest companies going bankrupt, that it was hard to keep track. Who would think that Fannie Mae, Merrill Lynch, and General Motors would all face bankruptcy, at the same time? Plus, seemingly entire neighborhoods in Florida, California, and elsewhere were being abandoned.

Then, a major money market fund “broke the buck” and started paying only ~97¢ on the dollar. Even though MM funds told their investors that this could happen, and that their money was not insured by the FDIC like a savings account, most of us thought they were as save as cash. The Bush Treasury Dept., to its credit, quickly stepped in, and guaranteed the money in MM accounts. If they had not, there absolutely would have been an old fashioned “bank run”, like happened to the “Bailey Saving and Loan” in “It’s a Wonderful Life”. I’d have been the first one in line, too. If that had happened, we’d have had 25% unemployment and a depression that would still be ongoing.

At the bottom of the Great Recession, I lost over 60% of my investment money, and was started to wonder if I might lose it all! Oddly, the same week that the S&P reached its pre-recession levels, so did my investments. It was odd, because I was an active trader, and it seems like I could have just left my investments alone to get the same effect.

As for the Trump correction, there’s no knowing, of course, how things will develop, but for reasons I expressed earlier, I think the major indexes will fall further.

An already brutal week on the market and it’s only Tuesday. Thank god for the holiday to cut this shit short.

I live in one of the hottest real estate markets in the country and I'm seeing homes and condos sitting with no offers. Prices are getting lowered, Just a few months ago, they would have sold easily with top prices. It's not a seasonal thing, either, because they were selling easily at this same time last year.

Who is buying as stocks go down? Good luck with that model. There is no floor yet established. Beware Larry Kudlow promising no recession. He said the same thing in December 2007 and was wrong then too.

Are many of you who invest in stocks gay or straight? I'm curious because I don't know many gay men who invest in the stock market.

I am gay and have both lost and made money in the stock market. The only reason I can retire with over a million is because of knowing what to do with the market, after years of following it. It's not for the faint of heart.

Down 500ish now.

Given that there doesn't seem to be anything particularly worrisome in the "real" economy, I would expect a stock market correction to be fairly mild and short-lived.

R538, what is your advice for those of us who have money in stocks?

Except for rising interest rates, slowing growth, deficit and consumer debt at an all time high, Trump instability ... yep, nothing to worry about. Americans can no longer afford an iPhone! Why would the market suddenly go up?

Oh boy. If you are diversified, ride it out. If you have large positions in one or more companies, ask yourself if you are willing to see it go down further. You can take profits off the table with no tax impact in a 401k.

R537, I’m Gay.

R541, I’m not R538, but it’s very hard to say what is a good thing for you to do, without knowing a lot about your situation. I can say what I’ve done, and that is move from my very aggressive mutual funds, to less aggressive positions with 50% in cash and 12% in bonds, for the reasons I stated In R79.

Generally, I don’t like to invest with the expectation that the market will drop, but I think we’re in a unique situation these days. I expect that Mueller’s report, whenever it is out, will have a big effect, one way or another. Like the old saying, “the Chinese symbol for crisis is the same character for opportunity”. Now, that’s not actually true about the characters, but no matter. The point is that I believe, there will be a lot of volatility in the coming months, and a great opportunity to make or lose money.

This article is helpful.

Trump is likely to strike a China deal in December to avert widespread panic selling. But at the moment, there is a lack of confidence among Wall Street types that the bull run will continue for much longer.

[quote]I am gay and have both lost and made money in the stock market. The only reason I can retire with over a million is because of knowing what to do with the market, after years of following it. It's not for the faint of heart.

hey, r538, how old are you if you don't mind me asking?

57. Good luck. 👍

[quote] It's not for the faint of heart.

Exactly! Normal human nature is to do the exact opposite of what you should do. While in a rally, you’re tempted to buy more, to enjoy the ride. In contrast, when the market is falling, you’re tempted to get out of the market. But this can mean that you buy high and sell low, just what you don’t want to do.

Warren Buffet has said, “Be fearful when others are greedy; and be greedy when others are fearful.”

If you are still working and 10 or more years away from retirement, buy stocks with each paycheck. Put it on autopilot and ignore whatever the market is doing.

My brother cashed in his pension (he retired four years ago) against his financial advisor's advice and is 100% in stocks. I gently told him several times that he was taking on too much risk. He must be shitting himself. I'm not going to bring it up in conversation.

Dow futures are up 180 today.

Just some financial news:

Germany and Japan both had negative growth in the third quarter. Two consecutive down quarters are the definition of a recession.

The US now produces more oil than any other country. More than Saudi Arabia, more than Russia.

Initial jobless claims last month were higher than expected. 224,000 actual, vs. 215,000 expected.

This chart puts the jobless claims increase into perspective. Overall employment is still extremely strong.

Anytime you miss expectations may suggest a upcoming problem. This unemployment report is just one data point, so it may mean nothing.

Employment is strong for people allowed to work. The labor participation rate is the lowest ever and continues to drop.

Like lemmings running towards the cliff, people continue to buy stocks at overvalued prices.

Mutual funds often pay distributions in December, so it’s not a good time to buy now, as you’re buying the distribution (if applicable) and will have to pay income tax on it.

What was Wednesday's close?

Anxiety making?

The market went up and down by a couple hundred points, basically ending up exactly where it started.

The Dow right now is 24,464.69.

Who knows what will happen in December, but if this was the last day of the year I will have made less than 2% on my investments.

Not a good day to be adding gains or losses.

R7, I believe it; I needed some stuff recently and ordered it off ebay; some of it had to go back; returns are a hassle, but they can be done.

I think Trump will try and make some deal with China just to make the market go up. With BREXIT, the global economy will tank like dominoes falling. He is trying to blame the Fed and interest rates but honestly that is the least of his problems.

R548 Yep. My grandfather became right buying stock like crazy during The Great Depression. My dad said 3 of his buddies jumped out of windows in the banks the worked in, yet his father was buying, buying, buying nonstop. That really did take a lot of nerve(and yes, a little crazy as well.)

So your grandfather died destitute, r564.

Umm no. I do not know what you are talking about. All I know is what I was told over and over and yet over again since 1960. He bought a shit ton of stocks including Sears& Roebuck which went on to split many times and by the time I was born he was a multi-millionaire.

I am the living proof of that in that I inherited the entire Trust 3 years ago when my parents both died. I never fact checked my dad or my granddad, so I cannot say that I know 100% that they were telling me the truth, but since the money was surely there and I was fortunate enough to be born into the midst of it, I accepted their words as factual.

Perhaps he was actually a bootlegger or a drug dealer? Hmmm, I rather doubt that as he was a member of Richmond society who was considered above reproach.

R565, the market may not have recovered for decades, but it still paid out dividends.

As an aside, when watching an annuity sales pitch, they will often use a graph of the S&P 500 and show how it fluctuates while ignoring the divideds. Of course the annuity will look better. If you want annuity, look into SPIAs, Vanguard has them.

My hunch is that annuities were a better investment when taxes were high, but not now. No?

@paul_lander

Trump said his being President cost him a fortune. Anyone who looked at their 401K this week knows how he feels!

Trump is a liar. Nothing he says should be accepted as true without evidence.

R568, you have to be in a really high tax bracket for taxes to be a benefit of an annuity.

There is usually a very large sales commission on variable annuities which is why they are pushed so hard. SPIA annuity is the way to go if you want one.

Thanks, R571, I thought so.

The market is way up today, due to the Fed saying that interest rates are about right. I understand they may do one more increase.

Trump is screaming at his own appointed Fed chairman, again. Man, Trump is a jackass. Truly an ass.

This may help for a short term boost, but isn’t the market still shaky since growth will slow to a crawl in 2019? (And no ever talks about the deficit or consumer debt - both of which are at an all time high).

Also, with the Fed remaining neutral on interest rates, Trump is running out of people to blame when there is a slowdown.

Not yet neutral. Soon, though.

Haven’t people lost their minds? A nice dinner with China does not change all the underlying problems.

[quote]A nice dinner with China does not change all the underlying problems.

Do you usually use paper plates?

No. The press is saying the China talks will either lead to a December rally or the market tanking in the red. I don't recall it ever being so focused on one indicator (Trump) that is completely undependable.

R505, thanks for the article. I decided to sell a bit. I thought it better to realize some long term capital gains on the shares I sell; rather than short term ordinary dividends and short term capital gains on the same shares, as the former are taxed at 0%-15% and the latter are taxed at regular tax rates, 22% for me.

It won’t kill me if I have figured wrong, as it will be a learning experience for the future.

If you own Fidelity mutual funds and care, Fidelity has a web page with predictions on its fund distributions. Most distribute on 12/7/18.

R537 are you actually serious? You think investing in stocks is something only straight people do?

As Chandler would say (he's a character in a tv show filmed long before you were born): Could you be more stupid?

I just heard that the US & China have agreed not to raise tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. I imagine this will be good for stocks on Monday.

China and the US will keep existing 10% tariffs, so there is plenty of room for improvement.

Is a 90 day agreement really going to lead a rally? People are putting way too much emphasis into China deals - maybe our economy is vulnerable because the 1 percent have all the money, we are in debt, and Trump has no plan.

Trump is actually creating the imbalance and yet the markets are looking to him to “save” them from the mess he has created.

R585, well, we’ll see, won’t we!

I agree with you in general about the economy, (plus increasing interest rates). But, investors like to be out in-front of the news. If this were to lead to a removal of all the Trump tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, that may lead to a higher market.

A bigger concern I have is with the Mueller investigation and general corruption in the Trump Administration. There’s so much unknown. Will it mean a premature end of the Trump Presidency? I think this is likely. I also believe Trump will continue to inadvertently damage our country until then. and that Trump will literally retaliate against the US for “failing him”. He’s a petty, vindictive man. How bad might that be?

What might Putin do in 2019? Might Putin do something bold, knowing that Trump will not challenge him? Perhaps Russia will annex Ukraine? and annex other non-NATO, former Soviet, neighboring countries?

Would the market prefer President Pence, and rally when Trump is deposed? Might Pence be involved in corruption? Might Nancy Pelosi rise to the Presidency before 2020? I bet Pence is not corrupt,

So, I foresee a market drop as the investigation proceeds and ends. That might only be for a day, once the market realizes that President Pence is even better for the 1% than Trump is, and is more rational and predictable.

Slowing growth will undo the bull market. Trump trying to manipulate it to his favor will fail. I also think Pence is corrupt.

Don't get your hopes up - Trump isn't going anywhere, at least until 2020.

Anyway, the economy is strong overall, so I expect the stock market, while not advancing much, to not lose a lot in the coming year.

Just the fact that an escalation of the trade war was averted should cause a brief rally. How long it will last is anyone's guess. The trouble for Trump, and for the market, is that there wasn't anything concrete in that "agreement," as you can see from the side-by-side comparison of the statements from each country.

R589, given the high volatility in the market thus far, with no sign of that changing and with no sign of Trump actually becoming "Presidential," not to mention competent, making a forecast for 2019 is probably not a good idea.

It is always worth remembering that the stock market is influenced by a lot more than Trump. The best way to misjudge the market is to over-emphasize the impact of presidential politics.

The Deplorables are finally going to realize bigotry doesn't pay the bills. Thanks for fucking up our country yet again, Republican idiots.

Donnie and his corrupt crew are going to have to eat a lot of humble pie. His tariffs are not working so now he is trying to get China to bail out American farmers. Goldman et al are telling investors to build up their cash, not buy more stocks.

Dow futures up more than 400 today.

Reaction to pullback on China tariffs. Yes.

It’s a fine day, at noon, but the market has pulled back from the earlier gains. It looks like a regularly good day. Nothing outstanding at the moment.

Qatar just pilled out of OPEC. They say “nothing to see here, it’s just us chickens”. I don’t follow Mideast news closely enough to know if this is important. I recall over a year ago, the Saudis started an embargo on Qatar, who they border, because of complaints that it was under Iranian influence. Those Saudis maybe sleepwalking towards war with Iran and I don’t like it.

A good day. The market overall looks to be up about 1%, with the NASDAQ up about 1.5%.

That’s it? Meh

I thought it would go up more. It seems to have reached a resistance point which means institutions know it's going to crash.

This dumb thread is OVER!