New midterm polls show repub enthusiasm is picking up-are we really fucked again?

The GOP voters are riled up now, but if Kavanaugh is confirmed, which is very likely, that energy will hopefully die down somewhat.

*obviously meant rabid, not rapid

I agree with r1. If Kavanaugh is confirmed, which is likely, their anger and energy to vote will hugely dissipate.

There’s a new poll every week, and I take all of them with a grain of salt. I am one angry Democrat who will vote in November and every other election, but I have never gotten polled. I know that many of my friends are fired up as well.

Let them confirm Kavanaugh. More evidence will come to light and his SC career will end prematurely. But it will help rule up the Democratic base in November.

And this is a surprise? Repigs vote in spite. I've been telling all of you since 2016 the repigs are going to vote in masses in Nov.

I'm with R4. Just confirm the bastard. Get it over with. We'll get back to him eventually. We just need a majority of the House and 2/3 of the Senate. It's possible.

Once the drunk is confirmed, their fervor will dissipate. We're still furious, however. More of us will be furious if he's confirmed.

we're not going to get a 2/3 majority of the Senate. That's wishful thinking. Once he's in, he's likely set for life

Never, R7?

They’ll forget all about it once he’s confirmed

Far better chance of us retaking Presidency, House and Senate and then packing the court (adding seats) as opposed to any impeachment and removal fantasy. Also mad props to Heidi Heitkamp who is voting "no". She's almost certainly slitting her own throat but it's nice to see a politician who actually fucking stands for something.

If that were to happen it wouldn't be for years. Too many liberals are just so fucking lazy and apathetic when it comes to voting so we've allowed a nutjob minority group of the country to rule over us. A majority of that nutjob minority reliably use their right to vote while so many of the rest of us don't and we're paying for it. A lot of cases are now going to be decided in favor of the backwards right wingers.

My big fear is that now more liberals will move out of swing and potentially flippable states into blue ones, leaving them red. So we might get a situation soon when the popular vote for Presidents always goes to the Democratic candidate but the repub always wins electorally. Hopefully that won't be the new trend but I could see it.

The news outlets just like to breathlessly report every blip in the polls to keep us all on the edge of our seats. There is no complacency on the left this year. We will turn out and take over!

Cult.

They look so happy. I've been depressed for going on 2 years. Maybe I should just say "fuck it" and join them.

New NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll has the enthusiasm gap a lot closer.

Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were "very important." Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie.

Remember that the Republicans are declining in number. At last check, just 25% of registered voters and dropping. So what if their enthusiasm is ramping up?. Independent voters are the game now. We already know that women are LIVID. And many of those are independent. White males are "over-represented" in the Republican party. Gays and blacks are "over-represented" in the Democratic Party. But women are not. However, after THIS debacle, I think lots of women will vote against Republicans for at least a decade. Not a good thing when you have a declining demographic (older white men) as your ONLY dependable base.

R14, sure! Go grab a pussy or tell some random immigrant to go back to their country. You can also pick up some Tiki torches and wait for the happiness to set in.

Report back to us.

The media wants tight races for suspense. Ratings sell ads.

Why are the Republicans putting on such a show if this thing is in the bag?

These polls are stupid. GOP always shows up to vote, their "enthusiasm" doesn't matter. Either way they show up election day. Our enthusiasm actually does matter, we are the party that has problems with non voters.

R16 one would think so but look at the 2016 election. Trump won over 50% of white women which shocked me. We don't realize how many women support misogynistic men. Unfortunately it's common among all races of women but it matters more with white women since the majority of republican candidates are white males.

His rallies are the new lynchings for the small communities he visits. Horror.

I agree with R1. It’s a small consolation, but I’ll take it.

Repugs do pretty much everything to own the libs.

We're in a weird situation where confirming Kavanaugh would probably help us at midtems because the right-wing nut jobs will relax, thinking everything is going to plan, while the liberals will be energized to vote.

But confirming Kavanaugh seems like about the worst idea possible. It's a mess.

So we need four threads on how the gap between Democratic and Rethuglican enthusiasm narrows the closer we get to Election Day?

Really, troll?

It's what always happens. Like clockwork.

I agree, R25. How annoying!

Those polls are not national , they skew heavily mid-Eastern United states, where the ratio of Deplorables is much higher.

The Western United States is were most of Dems hope to pick up a little over half of those House seats and they will.

Advertising works. The Repug billionaires are dumping hundreds of millions into this election and it will have an effect. The moderates like Claire McCaskill seem most in danger while the FDR Dems are doing better. Maybe the Dem party will finally get the hint, watered-down Repugs don't excite anyone.

R28, what on Earth do you want them to do? Take out a gun on the Senate floor? They’re already acting crazy and pulling stunts with the Kavanaugh nomination. They’re playing hardball. You had Coons on television having to say that he had no idea what they were referring to about there being suspicious shit being in Kavanaugh’s prior investigations - cause there wasn’t. Dems were playing hardball. We all know it. They’re in the minority. They have no power. Elections have consequences. The president also has the bully pulpit. You also have socialists running. That ain’t exciting many either. America is a polarized country. Period.

[quote] Why are the Republicans putting on such a show if this thing is in the bag?

Because they’re always angry and bitter.

I wasn't polled. Were any of you polled?

It's time for a revolution

See that's what I mean in R13 link. In almost every video of Trumps' rallies and also most of the photo shoots of his supporters the majority of attendees are under age 55 or they are in their 80s, such as R13 link for one example of hundreds. There are only very few supporters pictured and rally attendees in their *late-50s to early-70s* yet everyone is screaming about how the baby boomers are all Trumpies or that most Trumpies are baby boomers.

For example. 1 out of 10; most of the rallies look like this. One boomer out of every ten.

Most attendees are Millennial-age right up to the oldest GenXers, and throw in a few 80-something yr olds.

I posted this in another thread so forgive the redundancy. When Dems vote, Dems win.

You can help get people to vote! Write 5 postcards to 5 voters. That's it. Here's the link to get you started.

If you look at the first few seconds of the video you can see that everyone directly behind him and to his right are mostly Millennials and also some GenXers.

Sigh.

The people who show up at his rallies are indicative of ... the kind of people who show up for Trump rallies.

Not who votes for him.

BONUS POINTS: Trump's PR team likely ensures that he is surrounded by a youthful rainbow coalition on camera.

R36, you really think that the people that are handpicked to stand behind Trump at his Nazi-rallies are a real representation of his voters?

Yeah, that’s what Trump wants you to think, which is why they place certain people behind him. Toothless Bob from Kentuckelfucky and his 600 pound bride will never stand behind Trump at any of his rallies.

Correct, R38.

Trump has been talking about being president since the 1980s so it's no wonder the right-wing Millennials and GenXers support him. The idea was planted when they were kids.

I suspect the usual rightwing Boomers support him too but are just not the kind of people who go to rallies.

I'd believe polls about who supports him over trying to suss out demographics from looking at some footage. Republicans by and large support Trump.

It's the independent voters who have (per Gallup) dropped their support, and of course the liberals we need to get to the polls.

Thank you R38 and R39.

It's nice not to be the only voice of reason on here

R1 is 100% right. It would almost be smarter for the GOP to let Kavanaugh sink and use it as a rallying cry for their base to show up to the polls. That way, they can put someone up next year with less baggage and who doesn't have the risk of being impeached further down the line. The only reason they keep holding onto him is because Rump wants someone he can count on to halt the Mueller probe in his tracks. That's always been the reason he's been tied to the hip to Kavanaugh despite how poorly it plays with women. While another pick will vote the way the conservative elite want, there's no guarantee that another pick will shield Trump from a subpoena in the Russia investigation. Cutting his nose to spite his face. Avoiding impeachment, but almost guaranteeing that he loses in 2020 or the FBI offs him. The Republican party itself may be sneaky and crafty, but Rump has shown that he's not and it will be to their detriment sooner than we realize.

Trump voters are 'Republicans without a conscience' (redundant?) but it does seem that his base is made up of young and old many of whom judge people by their wealth; the value they put on others is tied up in their wealth. The Boomers grew up with Trump so to speak, and knew he was a buffoon and a corrupt person with the morals of a snake from way back when, especially those in the most densely populated part of the country, the NY/NJ Metro/Tri-State Area where he is from and conducted his businesses.

The Boomers participate in protests and still attend concerts, and for one example of many, made up the majority of fans at the last few Stones concerts in NY/NJ. Boomers aren't adverse to attending large crowded venues, they still attend concerts. It's just that Trump doesn't have the majority of them fooled or mind-washed like he does the younger set as well as today's great-grandparents, the easily misled Silent Generation.

Look back at the frightening videos/photos of Trump-lovers screaming in excitement of Trump's very presence, like overly obsessed teen fans. Note the ages of these crazies. His base/fans are all without a conscience Republicans, but strangely enough they're also the very young and the very old.

Before I thought Ford was simply not remembering what happened to her. But after hearing all the contradictions in her story and other character and eyewitness accounts I concluded that she must have knowingly lied. She should go to jail.

^^^ troll

omg I cannot believe we have a poster/posters in here trying to say that most Trump voters aren't white baby boomers. They fucking ARE. Certainly there are some Gen X and Millennials as well but baby boomers are the biggest part of Trump's base. That really can't be disputed. You are dumb if you go on "the demographics of his rallies" alone. Some of those people are hired to attend.

R42 makes a good point. The Republicans have no choice but to confirm Kavanaugh because Trump is not backing down. Trump knows that this is the only guy that will protect him from prosecution so he’s putting all his eggs in this particular basket. The Republicans would have much preferred another candidate, Amy Barrett, who would have won them browny points with women.

As far as Cavanagh serving a lifetime appointment-don’t count on it. Even the worst dictator of them all has to bow to public pressure at some point. Given his past there are probably many more skeletons in his closet waiting to come up and when the republican base turns against Kavanaugh and it will start costing them votes, all bets are off.

Meanwhile Trump has Gorsuch, Alito, Thomas and Kavanaugh to protect him at the SC. I think Roberts (capable of long-term thinking) might not be that easy to convince

^ Oh please, R46 look at the YT videos which you apparently haven't done. And no doubt some actors were hired to attend and applaud his every word, but really unless they support Trump they will not go along with that ruse. Even if I were flat broke and needed the money I would not attend. Paid or not, they are still his supporters. Non-supporters would be sickened to go anywhere near his rallies, no less cheer and applaud him.

At this point we are in so much trouble that it doesn't matter what specific age groups voted for him. Finger pointing won't help. What is done is done and we are in deep trouble.

[quote] Non-supporters would be sickened to go anywhere near his rallies

This guy & his friends went to one of Trumps rallies. Keep in mind they had no idea they were going to be picked to be seated behind Trump, so it’s not like he & his friends planned to make faces at the camera. When asked why he went he said he had not been paid, but went because he would see a president. If you live in Podunk, seeing any President is a big deal.

The article at r22 puts into words much of what I’ve been feeling but couldn’t articulate.

It makes me feel almost hopeless.

On another note, have the pollsters adjusted their means of contact?

My mother gets polled constantly, but she has a landline, unlike most people under the age of 40, or maybe even under 80, which she is not.

She is, however, a strident anti-Trumper, to the point that she has wished openly for his assassination. I never imagined that I would see the day when my mom, now an octogenarian grandmother, would speak enthusiastically about the prospect of the President of the United States being assassinated.

I never imagined I would see a lot of the past two years.

Don't cannonize Heitkamp just yet. She's down double digits in the polls to the Republican. So this is either a Hail Mary or a fuck you vote. If she thought she had a snowball's chance in hell at winning then you can bet your ass she'd approve Kavanaugh. Its people like Collins, Manchin or Murkowski who will be the real heros.

^ I agree given that she is a self-serving person.

She openly admitted in an interview today that if it was based solely on political considerations, she would have voted "yes". So most likely she realizes her Senate career is over and either A) she is a decent person or B) she's angling for a job in a future Democratic administration or some other kind of payback.

[quote]She is, however, a strident anti-Trumper, to the point that she has wished openly for his assassination. I never imagined that I would see the day when my mom, now an octogenarian grandmother, would speak enthusiastically about the prospect of the President of the United States being assassinated.

Atta girl! CHEERS, darling!!!!

This election's going be a war - I wouldn't be surprised if there are brawls inside the churches and all kinds of devil's work.

Republicans/Conservatives vote in EVERY election, regardless of how poorly their candidate might be expected to do against the Democrat.

Too many Democrats only vote if they think their vote will matter. If the top candidate doesn't stand a chance or they are predicted to bury their opponent too many Democrats just figure why bother.

That is how we ended up with Trump.

[quote] Before I thought Ford was simply not remembering what happened to her. But after hearing all the contradictions in her story and other character and eyewitness accounts I concluded that she must have knowingly lied. She should go to jail.

R44 stop watching Fox News it is rotting your mind.

New poll

We must take NOTHING for granted. Assume the worst, hope for the best.

New KANSAS GOVERNOR Poll:

Kelly (D) 42%

Kobach (R) 41%

Orman (I) 10%

Caldwell (L) 2%

Kloos (I) 1%

Undecided 4%

**

Remington, 1680 likely voters, 9/30-10/1, MOE 2.4%

**

How does that compare to the previous polls, Poll Troll?

R61, there have also been 1 or 2 other polls showing a close race in Kansas.

The Democrats wouldn't normally have a shot there, but because of Kobach's unpopularity, and the divisive Republican Primary, the Dem candidate is more competitive than usual.

Ah, thanks, Poll Troll. The context helps.

Please. Republicans are pretending they weren’t going to vote in November, but now they’re all fired up. Bullshit. Republicans show up to vote all the time. It’s democrats who sit on the sidelines til the last minute, then vote or don’t vote. That’s why we lose. Sheer laziness. “Let someone else do it.”

I’ll never forget watching one of my first elections and democrats didn’t go to the polls in any great number because it was raining. A reporter said “That’s typical of democrats. If it’s rainy, or dark outside, too cold or too hot, snowing or windy, they don’t show up at the polls.”

And he was right. Every election since then, if the weather is bad, democrats stay home.

You know, with all the money raised by political parties, why not buy cheap, used trailers in red districts, have someone from a blue state rent it, change their permanent address before the election and vote. Then wait a few months and change their address again.

The polls are ridiculous...let's just vote and see what happens.

An unenthusiastic vote counts exactly the same as an enthusiastic vote. Enthusiasm doesn't matter, just voting matters.

SO VOTE.

Yes I'm that bitch. Please register and vote.

Trump didn’t win mostly because of what he did. Trump won because of what Democratic voters, progressives and sane independents DID NOT DO.

Republicans win because they show up to the boring party meetings and take over rather than sit on the couch.

Kavanaugh is being discriminated against as a white male, is finally being said out loud by people like Grassley and Graham. Dangerous and effective rallying cry. We just have to bust our butts on turnout and beg people to vote.

In 2014 only 36% of the electorate voted. That was the year that Mitch McConnell and 3 other GOP Senators were re-elected and nine seats flipped from blue to red. We wouldn’t be in this mess if Democrats could just sear into the minds of their supporters the need to go out and vote every November the way the Republicans have.

It won’t matter much if we win in November if we lose seats again because of apathy. To change the course of the country, people have to vote every year in every election.

"people have to vote every year in every election."

R73, I've voted in every election since I became eligible to vote in 1972. I'm seriously consider sitting the November election out. Why bother? The Republicans are a tightly run, well disciplined machine. The Democrats are a fucking mess, drowning and flailing about for any life preserver that comes along. This latest fiasco with Kavanaugh is a case in point. There is a segment of the Democratic Party that is hell bent on this #MeToo bullshit and avenging centuries of alleged abuse of women by men. As long as this shit, and it is complete and utter shit, keeps being the main rallying point of Democrats, they will continue to lose seats locally and nationwide and eventually become irrelevant. The feminist fringe and its paid professionals has taken over the Democratic Party.

How could Democrats have stopped Kavanaugh, apart from wining in 2016?

R74, sexual assault of women and women fighting back is “bullshit”? Some people believe that gay marriage is “bullshit” or equal rights for black people. Without “bullshit”, there wouldn’t be any progress.

People like you ARE the problem. I don’t have to identify or support everything the Democrats do, but the fact isn’t that we have a 2 party system in the US. And you support the party you identify with IN EVERY ELECTION, because otherwise the other party wins.

And while the system is not perfect, I can tell you that I am against the majority of beliefs held by the GOP, which is why I don’t want them to pass legislation that will influence my life. That’s why I show up to vote every time. Everybody needs to quit being lazy or discouraged and vote in every election.

Well said r74.

Yes, it is total and complete bullshit when it is the apparent bulwark of your platform, R76. Dems have nothing else to run on, so they've latched onto this. The sad reality is, most people, including most women (as we have just seen this past week) don't consider #MeToo a major issue in their lives. Yet there is a small, vocal minority that wants this issue front and center and they're leading the Democratic party down the road to oblivion. It's self-destructive, as we saw with the Al Franken debacle. We lost a strong, potent voice when he was sacrificed at the altar of political correctness. It was wrong then and its wrong now.

R78, I don’t think you can compare Al Franken’s political setup to a woman who tried to contact people regarding Kavanaugh’s attempted rape when he was only a candidate on a list of many.

I agree with you on Franken, but it’s not the same. I also wouldn’t lump Ford’s allegations in with the #metoo movement, just as Anita Hill’s allegations had nothing to do with it. Just because there’s a movement out there, doesn’t mean that every case is a part of it.

I'm so enthusiastic I filled out and posted my absentee ballot today--one month early.

Polls are bullshit, people may be silent about it but all but the Deplorables know that these Nazi Republicans must go.

People in very blue States need to vote en masse too. That way people might get pissed off enough with the EC when the runner up gets 100,000,000 more votes than the “President”.

[quote]Yes, it is total and complete bullshit when it is the apparent bulwark of your platform, R76. Dems have nothing else to run on, so they've latched onto this.

You really have no idea what you're talking about, do you? You're just making random shit up and hoping we won't notice. There is one issue that Democratic candidates have spent over 30% of their advertising budget on. Free clue: it isn't "#MeToo." There is no shortage of issues that Democrats have to run on, and are, in fact, running on. Maybe if you pulled your head out of your ass, you might not show yourself to be such a fool.

There are few real liberals in America, OP. This has always been a disgustingly conservative country. Look at all the liberal bashing that goes on here, on DL. We're a fucked up country, always have been.

R84 agreed. I’m an immigrant and people look at me with 3 heads when I talk about being liberal. This is a backwards place.

Where do you all live? Enid, Oklahoma?

"There is no shortage of issues that Democrats have to run on, and are, in fact, running on."

And those are...….? And here's a clue for you: hating Trump with a passion ain't one.

We'll be waiting.

R87, here's a clue for you: they aren't running on "hating Trump with a passion," which is why they've been winning so much in the off-cycle elections, the majority of those wins occurring in red districts. I also gave you another clue in the post you responded to, with respect to where their advertising dollars are going.

Oh, and R87, since you were the one first making those silly claims in r74, it behooves you to back them up. You won't, of course, because you can't, because you're full of shit.

I've been saying it for months now, we're gonna get our asses kicked again. It's going to be anther couple of years of hand wringing and foot stomping because democrats will be powerless to stand up th the pieces of shit that are in control. That's why more senators have slowly gotten behind Trump, they know both he and they are not going anywhere and it has actually emboldened them to openly be the cunts that they are.

"Close" isnt an actual "Win."

I hope not

When the cult leader is not on the ballot himself, the ignorant sheep who follow him will not be as motivated to go vote. I hope! This thread smells a bit like vodka.

give your kick ass moma a hug from me, r50.

We need more pissed off old ladies like that to rock the vote.

Why should I be specific when you have yet to be specific, R89. Mouthing off platitudes you've picked up from watching MSNBC are not concrete evidence of anything.

BTW, I totally agree with R90. It's gonna be a blood bath on November 6th, and the post mortem for the Democratic party on November 7th won't be pretty. Hopefully it will be the death knell for single-issue politics that Dems espouse. It may play well in La La Land, but to the vast majority of voters in the U.S., it goes over like a lead balloon.

At least when we lose this time it won’t be as big of a shock...

R94 what goes over well with a lot of the U.S. is racism, sexism, and greed. That doesn’t make it right. Or rather, that is the right.

[quote]Trump didn’t win mostly because of what he did. Trump won because of what Democratic voters, progressives and sane independents DID NOT DO.

It's also important to keep in mind that Trump benefited from the '8 Year Rule' in 2016.

In modern history, no party has kept the White House for longer than 8 years except on one occasion (1980-1992, when there were 2 terms of Reagan followed by one term of Bush I).

I guess it depends on how you define modern

Democrats held the White House for 20 years in the middle of the 20th century

Somehow I have a hard time believing that a person who has voted democratic in every election forever, will just sit out the most important election of all.

Something smells like a combo of borscht and Tiki torches.

Ok, I have canvassed for years, and I'm canvassing every weekend until now 6,

When you canvass you ask people what issues are important to them, and you have a list (healthcare, environment, education, gun control etc).

Candidates use that info to craft messages.

I donate money and get questionnaires and polls asking what issues are important to me.

The Dems don't have a top down structure.

The idea an issue is mandated is ridiculous.

You would know this, posters, if you at any time had volunteered in any way shape or form to help elect a candidate, attended a political meeting, talked to a local politician.

That is to say, been involved in the electoral process.

I don’t do cosplay, R100

[quote]Democrats held the White House for 20 years in the middle of the 20th century

In the days of FDR-Truman, between 1932-1952.

But not since the middle of the 20th century.

Political scientists and presidential historians count the new period as beginning after the 1952 election, from which point no party stayed in the White House for longer than 8 years except once.

Keeping my fingers crossed that Dem turnout will affect state legislatures in key states.

I knew Hillary would have a real challenge because of the 8 years and out pattern. Only Bush after Reagan was able to buck it. So if we can make it to 2024, we'll definitely see a Democrat back in the White House.

The reason GOP wins is that they're very focused and good at keeping their eye on the prize. Most of them know that Trump is just a bullshit artist but they wanted certain things, like stocking up the federal courts with conservative judges and stocking the supreme court with right wingers. Once he promised that, they were willing to overlook any and all of his character flaws, his inconsistencies, his racism. For some that was even a plus.

But democrats are not that focused. They're the purity party. They worry about this one getting corporate money, or that one not towing the party line in every way. They infight. That's why with all the articles that came out in 2016 about how it was two bad choices, there were very few about the impact Trump would or could have on the Supreme Court . And though it's not as dominant as when Sanders stoked the flames , this purity bullshit is still around. I see it just today, where people want to make sure Joe Manchin pays for not voting yes on Kavanaugh. They don't see the big picture--that we need control of the senate, and we need senators like Manchin from red states.

An article from the National Constitution Center, written in 2013:

Historic re-election pattern doesn’t favor Democrats in 2016

Democrats are the purity party and we go low, they go high party. As a result, they are get continually get beaten up. However, I think enough of them are fired up to make a difference this November. But ultimately, the Democrats have to have a strong economic message and move away from the party of the survivors/victims/oppressed etc.

R101 what does that mean? You sit on your ass and watch people die of aids related issues? You sit on your ass while others advocate for equal rights? You sit on your ass for marriage equality because you are lazy.

2 weeks ago Nate Lerner reported Dem voting up 89% over 2014.

Who registered voters? Canvassed for candidates?

Who is texting, writing postcards, canvassing, donating for the next 5 weeks?

Hint: it's not you, you lazy pos.

You are tard, R107, if you think any of that busy work matters

lease. Republicans are pretending they weren’t going to vote in November, but now they’re all fired up. Bullshit. Republicans show up to vote all the time. It’s democrats who sit on the sidelines til the last minute, then vote or don’t vote

This is true; repugs will vote for someone they don't like the the can gain/retainpower, but dems won't vote if their person isn't on the ballot

R107 thinks her busy work can overcome the fixed system

President Gore and President Kerry would have changed the course of the country for the better, but the Repubs play dirty.

The left wing of American politics is too lazy and cowardly to do what needs to be done for success.

Just keep canvassing and watching Colbert and wondering why you keep losing to low IQ trash...

Well I live in WA. A purple state with a Republican controlled state legislature. Until 2017. Special election in the 45th. Some of us canvassed/ volunteered for manka dhingra.

Now we have a blue state. Dec 2017, guess who controls the state budget?

Regional environmental treaty with BC, free internet, healthcare in place.

Let me guess, it's all boring. Budgets, committee assignments.

No much better bitch while waiting for someone to save you,

Republicans will take a bullet on 5th Avenue for Trump. He’ll, they’d volunteer to be a blood sacrifice to ensure an election win.

Meanwhile, democrats whine — this candidate isn’t progressive enough! That candidate took Wall Street money! Not giving enough to PoC! Not giving enough to women! Not giving enough to Latinos or LGBTQ! This one’s been in office too long! That one’s too old! We need new blood! I refuse to get a photo ID! Obamacare needs to be fixed, this candidate isn’t going to fix it! Support single payer health insurance or I’m not voting for you!

Democrats want every box on their personal checklist ticked. “That candidate didn’t address my own personal favorite topic, so I’m not voting. I’m staying home!”

Republicans register to vote, get photo ID if it’s needed and show the fuck up at the polls for every election. One quarter to half of democrats sit home on their asses in a snit.

“Me! Me! Pick me to throw into the volcano! Pleeeeeease!”

Old Deplorables and their unemployed and unemployable children have all the time in the world to get out to vote on Tuesdays.

[quote]Why should I be specific when you have yet to be specific, [R89]. Mouthing off platitudes you've picked up from watching MSNBC are not concrete evidence of anything.

LOL... Oh, the irony.... Dear heart, you made the claim; you cannot back them up, and you know it, too, which is why you're playing these silly games. It's rather obvious, and pathetic.

[quote]BTW, I totally agree with R90. It's gonna be a blood bath on November 6th

Of course you do but that's because you're a rather ignorant troll.

Coinciding with all the fuss over Kavanaugh the Democratic lead in the RCP generic congressional vote has fallen to 6.6.

The irony about the claim that the Democrats have nothing to run on is that it's actually the other way around. Republicans were hoping to run on immigration and their tax plan, which are pretty much the only things they were able to do something about. Unfortunately, Trump took care of the former issue when he decided that it was a good idea to lock up refugee children in cages without their parents. And the latter proved to be highly ineffectual in the off-cycle elections earlier this year. The tax plan remains highly unpopular, probably because it just didn't do much for the 90%.

So what do they have left to run on? Basically, that Democrats have nothing to run on! Oh, and Democrats are all terribly extreme and Pelosi! Pelosi! Pelosi! Hell, Republicans have even promised to bring up Clinton again, which shows you just how desperate they are.

Meanwhile, the Democratic candidates are running primarily on health care, the safety net (Medicare and Social Security, in particular), stagnant wages, taxes, and corruption. I'm fine with that.

Back on topic: there is no question that the Kavanaugh hearings moved the needle on Republican enthusiasm. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary blip or whether it will be enough to counteract the blue wave. The House is still favored to go to the Democrats and the Senate remains a long shot. All we can do is keep doing what we've been doing: talk to your friends, family, neighbors, and co-workers about voting. And vote yourself.

I think the Senate is out of reach for the Dems, particularly with Heitkamp trailing in North Dakota, and with Bredesen now looking like he's going down in Tennessee.

But the most recent House forecast estimates that the Democrats will pick up 33 seats, and they only need 23 to win control.

Still, some of the House races are very close and won't be determined until Election Night.

[quote] Still, some of the House races are very close and won't be determined until Election Night.

Um, ALL the House races, closed or not, will be decided on election night. Heehee.

VOTE.

Here is the solution to this: Vote like your life depends on it

the deplorables will forget all about blackout Brett in two weeks.

The rest of us won't.

R114 is on the money. My yoga teacher refused to vote for Clinton because of the genetically modified food issue. She sat the election out. Now she's depressed because of Kavanaugh. . I think she was too stupid to understand the connection between her vote for President and the SC. Lots of Dem voters are like that.

[quote] My yoga teacher refused to vote for Clinton because of the genetically modified food issue.

That's an important issue to many of us.

Why are dems so damn worried about polls all of the time?

JUST GET OUT AND VOTE.

The Democrats thought they had 2016 sewed up and so avoided really slamming home the Supreme Court/Roe v. Wade message.

Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but that might have been more effective than all the "Trump is a bully" advertising.

Plus--again with two years distance--things like Oprah telling people to "hold their nose and vote for her" only hammered home the "unlikeable" message and people like R124's yoga teacher figured "well, she's ahead by 10 points anyway, I'm not going to hold my nose, I'm going to protest."

Most people never admit they were wrong, especially when it comes to politics. “It’s not my fault Trump is president because I didn’t vote. It’s Hillary’s fault for having g an unlikeable voice. So what if she has 40 years of helping craft laws to protect children? And women, too. So what if she had a political career of her own and didn’t embarrass herself or sell out her constituents?

So what if she worked tirelessly to help 911 first responders get good health care? So what if she had such a good health care plane in the 1990s that it set off partisan hysteria like we’d never seen because insurance companies & pharmacology companies were afraid of losing billions in profits?

Her voice was annoying and the media says she’s not a good candidate and something about emails....

Anyone who refused to vote for Hillary Clinton was a total fucking moron, the last year and half of Trump and his thugs have more than proven that fact.

They can get off of their dumb fucking asses and vote in November or not. Really, we're sick to death of them.

Ya know... maybe Democrats are not ready. Anger is just NOT enough? Only days ago I was sure that the Democrats could take the House and the Senate but today I'm not sure that they will retake anything. Where is the Democrat message? Look... if Democrats are successful and take at least one of the chambers, no one wants to hear about impeach this one or that one--of course I hope they do but that is kitchen table talk.

I want Democrats to talk more about healthcare, the deficit, and problem solving. Right now, I personally feel that they are losing control of the narrative and allowing Republicans to set the conversation. It's coming across to me as sour grapes more than anything and it's turning people off. I'm feeling discouraged.

Am I the only one skeptical about these "attacks" on Republicans? Let's exclude the protests. But, I so feel that these "so-called" attacks are machinations bought and paid for by Republicans in order to gain sympathy and gain control of the narrative. And unfortunately, it's working.

[quote]Anyone who refused to vote for Hillary Clinton was a total fucking moron, the last year and half of Trump and his thugs have more than proven that fact.

With all due respect, isn't it far past time to STOP talking about Hillary? It is what it is and nothing will change it. We cannot just sit in a morose state. Proactive actions are needed to maintain the progress that we have made. Constantly whining about Hillary isn't helpful... in my opinion.

[quote]Where do you all live? Enid, Oklahoma?

Ha! What made you pick that example? It’s my hometown.

[quote]Why are dems so damn worried about polls all of the time?

[quote]JUST GET OUT AND VOTE.

If only there was some way to keep poll results from Democratic voters. It’s like heroin to them. Bitches be like “The polls say the Democratic will win/lose, my vote doesn’t count”.

JUST GET OUT AND VOTE

I agree, R133. Democrats shouldn't worry about polls. Again, the conspiracist in me believes that Republican money has infiltrated and infected the polling data and therefore all of the news that is now being reported. Democrats should concern themselves with voting and getting out the vote.

[quote] Her voice was annoying

Well.....

[quote]I want Democrats to talk more about healthcare, the deficit, and problem solving

You'll be pleased to know that this is precisely what they're talking about.

r135 And HIS isn't????????

Unfortunately for Dems the economy is better than ever and the unemployment rate is the lowest in decades. There really isn’t much for them to run on besides Russia.

The Deplorables might have gotten their semi-annual erections last week over Kavanaugh. Doubt it's going to last until November though. As a GOP pollster pointed out, 30 days is a lifetime in electoral politics.

[quote]Unfortunately for Dems the economy is better than ever and the unemployment rate is the lowest in decades. There really isn’t much for them to run on besides Russia.

That's not true at all. Intelligent people know that the economy is still remnants of the Obama years--whether you want to give him credit for it or not. There's LOTS that the Dems can run on! How the tax cut package did not help the overwhelmingly number of Americans. Where's the health care package? Minimum wage. Education. Oh! There's LOTS to talk about!

[quote]Unfortunately for Dems the economy is better than ever and the unemployment rate is the lowest in decades.

Thanks, Obama.

[quote]There really isn’t much for them to run on besides Russia.

Health care, which is what they're mostly running on, corruption, taxes, deficits, stagnant wages, Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, the 1% ... Nope, nothing there at all....

[quote]Unfortunately for Dems the economy is better than ever and the unemployment rate is the lowest in decades. There really isn’t much for them to run on besides Russia.

DECENCY

What is right versus wrong. What is fair versus unfair

"Mitch McConnell Defends Blocking Merrick Garland"

BUT

"Mitch McConnell Refuses To Rule Out Senate Confirming A Supreme Court Pick In 2020--The Senate majority leader appears to have revised his reasoning for blocking Merrick Garland’s nomination to the Supreme Court."

The gross economic numbers are good but the percentage of those benefiting from the the boom is shrinking as those at the top grab a bigger share of the boom.

#MeToo is all that needs to be talked about.

If you still aren't sure you want to vote, think of how happy you'll be when scores of antigay legislators get voted out of office on November 6 - and how happy you are that your vote destroyed their careers.

R131, what's the problem? Or do you think democrats aren't entitled to free speech? Those who didn't vote for her own Trump and his enabling of the Republican Congress. And they can sit at home in November or come up with arcane reasons for voting for 3rd party, but, if the rest of us vote democratic in our own locations, then it is up to them. Because dems are in the majority if they act like it.

Get off your fucking ass this time and vote - put down Grindr for 10 minutes and VOTE bitch. VOTE like the biggest cock you've ever seen is right inside that voting booth!

I'm glad to see that the Democratic spirit is on the rise again. It was pretty dreary here yesterday and most of the morning today.

:)

It's so fucking weird. I rarely say anything about Hillary, the ONE time I make a comment in response to someone else's comment about her, two women start bitching at ME in this thread.

Fuck off, both of y'all. Anyone who didn't vote for Hillary Clinton is a dumb fucking cunt. Fact.

Furthermore, anyone who looks at the last two years and thinks the Democratic Party has "nothing to run on" is an even dumber fucking cunt.

Jesus. Are you on drugs? If not, take them up. Something's wrong with you.

[quote] VOTE like the biggest cock you've ever seen is right inside that voting booth!

What if you're a top?

I'm wondering what will happen if we get fucked again during midterms. Will there be a riot? a Revolution?

Yes. Democratic do the same thing every election. We talk out our asses. We don’t register. We don’t show up to vote. We make excuses how it’s someone else’s fault.

Except, R153, Democrats have shown up in every off-cycle election since November, 2016, with turnout that is exceeding Republican turnout and with Democrats out-performing prior numbers by double digits in most cases. You're ignoring the past two years of actual data to paint an unwarranted picture of doom and gloom.

I have a bad feeling about this, just like I did at this point in 2016. I feel like the Repugs are more energized and ready to stick it to us liberals again.

R153 Exactly. I'm expecting major disappointment.

We are at war...war is not acsmooth run . we just need to be sure of ourselves.

And yet, somehow, Democrats are still favored to win the House and the signs of disaster just aren't there. The Senate was always going to be a long shot, given the brutal calendar. 2020 is likely to be the Democratic year there.

R153 Agreed! The problem is Democrats or and other moderate/liberal leaning voters are too apathetic and don't turn up, whereas, Repug channel their anger into the ballot box.

R158 Remember how polls showed Hillary and the democrats had it in the bag just one day before the election in 2016?

My fear is that like 2016, democratic voters will stay away thinking the Democrats have it in the bag so what's the point of voting, they're going to win.

Just vote.

r159, you're ignoring nearly two years of data where Democratic voters have actually shown up. and, I'm sorry, but anyone who brings up the 2016 polls as you just did has clearly demonstrated that they are either remarkably ignorant or that they are a garden-variety troll.

Will Russians steal the vote for Republics, again?

It is possible that our Democracy can no longer be maintained.

Trump is America's Hitler. What should be done? Mueller is not coming through for us, what else can we do to save our country from this monster?

You already know the answer, R163: vote.

Oh, and R163? Stop with the stupid drama queen antics.

[quote]The polls are ridiculous...let's just vote and see what happens.

[quote]Polls are bullshit, people may be silent about it but all but the Deplorables know that these Nazi Republicans must go.

[quote]We are at war...war is not acsmooth run . we just need to be sure of ourselves.

[quote]Will Russians steal the vote for Republics, again? It is possible that our Democracy can no longer be maintained.

[quote]Trump is America's Hitler. What should be done? Mueller is not coming through for us, what else can we do to save our country from this monster?

When both Dems and Repubs are both riled up, Dems usually win

We are still in shock from 2016. But if Dems don’t prevail this year even though the polls show they will, we have to suspect that the election was tampered with. Trump will stop at nothing to protect his power.

Democrats have increased their lead in the generic congressional ballot in the latest CNN poll, from 10 points to 13 points.

[quote]Of the eight reputable national pollsters to survey the generic congressional poll since the Sept. 27 hearings, three including CNN have found an increase for Democrats’ lead in the generic congressional ballot since the last time those pollsters were in the field, three have found Democrats’ lead shrinking, and two have found essentially no change.

I just game back from a 2 week biz trip across the South & Midwest, including Texas.

The Republicans are *very* riled up from the Kavanaugh situation.

*Shrug* So are Democrats, R169.

Love how the GOP went from Republicans will get riled up if Kavanaugh doesn't get confirmed to now saying Republicans are riled up now that Kavanaugh got confirmed.

Save yourself lots of headlines by just saying Republicans , easily triggered by whatever Trump and his minions have manipulated them into believing.

Waste of time worrying about Republican enthusiasm. Just get to the polls and vote.

Not to mention the media desperately trying to create this narrative and ignoring the data that contradict it.

The problem with these polls is that they require respondents to identify as Republican or Democrat and then weight the responses accordingly.

This is adequate methodology when party populations are stable, but can start to totally fuck up if one party starts to lose popularity and respondents are less likely to claim that they belong to that party.

In fact, the headline "Republicans are increasingly more energized about voting" is exactly what you'd expect to see in a scenario where the GOP is actually hemorrhaging members due to recent controversy, leaving behind the dyed-in-the-wool Kool Aid drinkers. Those respondents, although fewer in number, are the most energized members of their party, and since the pollster hasn't accounted for the party's overall shrinkage in their sampling and weighting models, their opinions are given disproportionate weight.

The only thing we can do to get this pig out of office is VOTE. I get sick of him more every day. Let's end this!

The two latest generic ballot: CNN has D +13, and Ipsos is at D +12. Holy shit. I want to see a few more, but that's a pretty substantial jump.

Democrats also have a 30-point lead among women in the CNN poll, R175.

But we will need to see more generic ballot polls to detect a trendline.

We've been seeing a trend line for two years. Let's kick some Republican ass.

They're riled up? Aww, well it's about time they decided to show up. They almost didn't make it. Yes the polls narrow the closer you get to the election. The Democrats have been working, fundraising, organizing, registering voters, walking precincts, etc etc etc. There's only so much the lazy Republicans can manage in a couple of weeks. It'll be too little, too late.

I'd hope the Democratic Party would have a few more leaders on the national scence. I can relate to Nancy Pelosi moreso than Chuck Schumer. Schummer looks more adept to addressing a banker's association meeting in NYC, or being a keynote speaker for Wall Street speculators. We need some high profile, down-home, tough, Democratic politicians that are great at messaging throughout the country. The real good ones from the past are no longer in office.

Vote! There are federal and state-wide elections that have been decided by just a handful of votes. Urge your Democratic friends and relatives to vote, and remind them again early on election day if they haven't voted yet. Turnout is critical!

This clip basically shows us why democracy is screwed and why I believe there will be no blue wave.

R179. Young people might need a real reason to actually vote. They want to hear how Democratic policies will benefit them. Maybe young people can smell the bullshit from liberal politicans. you want my vote, give me a really good reason, besides telling me you are not the other side. it seems like nothing will really change even if democrats take the majority in the house.

Poll: Kavanaugh confirmation energizes Democrats more than GOP

A total of 46 percent say the Senate ‘made the wrong decision.’

NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll: Cruz 53% Beto 44%

R179, Orange County is a Republican stronghold, getting those people to vote may not be the result you're looking for.

R182 blah.

A lot of concern trolls in this thread.

No, when I see my country being taken over by a fascist attitude, I will not stop being a drama queen. I am alarmed and with good reason. Trump and Republicans are in power and they are enemies of our Democracy and you, R165 are not very perceptive. If there ever was a time to get dramatic, this is it.

Thank you for confirming what you are, R186, and for confirming that you should not be taken seriously.

All this hectoring about getting other people out to vote is beside the point. If you fear for your future, you WILL vote. That is what has gotten the fucking Repubs out. Fear is a great motivator. Democratic candidates need to harp on what matters most over and over again: the R's will take away health care in the next cycle if they remain in power. Sure, there are a ton of other important issues, but health care cuts to the bone, so to speak.

And, who are you R187?

What gets me is the unfairness and double standard of it all. I couldn't care less if you're a Republican or a Democrat. But, for these Republicans who support Trump is just simply beyond the pale. You care nothing about all of the corruption in the Administration? The widening of the wealth gap? US infrastructure crumbling to dust? The relationship with our allies? Do we still have any? The attack upon all of our institutions?

Yet, you ready to slit your wrists over emails....

AND, the Trump Administration is even mishandling that (worse than could ever be imagined) and there is silence...

Of course the enthusiasm is picking u p. As we get closer to election day that is bound to happen. It is not important. Our task is to vote in overwhelming numbers. We have to stop them and we can, in spite of the suppression, fraud, gerrymandering, etc. Overwhelming numbers will stop them. And remember: On their best day, there are more of us than there are of them.

Was just going to post that R181

More than anything, I think that got people riled up

Not so much that he actually did any of that stuff in high school but his attitude during the hearing, the way he was dismissive to Klobucher and his clearly partisan rant, angry demeanor.

It was one thing when his cabinet was a clown car.

But when it affect the Supreme Court people finally seem to be waking up

[quote]And, who are you R187?

A realist, someone who believes in actual data rather than hand-wringing, concern-trolling, and drama queen antics that help no one.

The Republicans absolutely will go after Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid. Count on it. No matter what the outcome of the midterms, the Lame Duck Session is going to be the most harrowing period of all. Even if the Dems win, and undo it in January, it will be awful.

Most hs/college age people are focused on school and only vote for Presidential elections. I remember I never voted during midterms. I didn't realize how important it was back then during the Bush II era. I actually think there are more hs and college aged kids who are interested in voting than 12 years ago

[quote] the Lame Duck Session is going to be the most harrowing period of all.

Won't be.

[quote]NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll: Cruz 53% Beto 44%

Nate Cohn was discussing the new Senate polls last night as the polling was being conducted by NYT/Siena.

It's not a surprise that Texas is moving away from the Democrats as we move closer to November -- it was always going to be challenging for Dems to win a statewide race in TX at this point in time.

Lloyd Bentsen will likely remain the last Democratic Senator to be elected in Texas for the foreseeable future.

Yep

One of the interesting developments in this election is what's happening in the Midwest.

Despite the fact that the Republicans are remaining strong in many areas of the country, they don't seem to be performing as well as expected in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania.

Even though Trump won these states in 2016, the Democrats are leading in all of the Senate races by *double digits* -- Tammy Baldwin (WI), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Bob Casey (PA) & Sherrod Brown (OH) all appear safe.

Plus, the Democrats are leading or tied in the Governor's races in these states, as well.

[quote] Intelligent people know that the economy is still remnants of the Obama years-

Lol. We’re talking about American voters here.

R198, if the Republicans really "won" those particular states it might be a bit closer. Or, it could be that those 11,000 voters in Michigan decided Trump is an asshole, just like their governor.

R200, Trump won MI, WI & PA by narrow margins, yes, but he won OH by a large margin.

And earlier in the year these races were expected to be more competitive.

But the Republicans are way behind in all 4 Senate races in those states, and are behind or only tied in the Governor's races, as well.

Republicans are underperforming in the Midwest so far relative to some other areas of the country.

Senator Stabenow in Michigan was never in trouble, but I sincerely hope the Democrats are able to turn around the Governors office and the state legislature because the Republicans have turned Michigan into a shithole. I doubt Casey was ever in trouble in PA and I cannot believe Sherrod Brown is in trouble in Ohio. He's very popular.

R202 here. I don't know who's running for anything in Wisconsin, but I hate Scott Walker with the power of a thousand suns and I hope he and RickScott in Florida die in a grease fire of defeat!!!!

The governor's race in Wisconsin is basically a dead heat, last time I checked.

Democrats are plenty energized. I worry about voter hacking. Many places are using machines that can be hacked with no paper back-up. There has been a lot written about this. When stories start getting planted about these polls, my worry increases. Someone is creating the back story. If Dems don't win in a lot of places, I'll know there was some illegal vote manipulation going on, whether by voter suppression through fake information about voting or deleting registered dems or by actual machine manipulation.

McSally in Arizona has gotten a huge boost from the Kavanaugh situation.

OH! Marsha and Phil are debating tonight. Right now...

Why do you think the lame duck session will be OK? Won't they pass as many Nazi laws as possible? I fear all of them they are trying their best to destroy our country. They have already done so much damage, I am notvsure we can recover.

Per fivethirtyeight.com, Dems have a 70% chance of taking the House, 27% chance of taking the Senate.

Do what you can, because this election is really fucking important.

r209 Just remember they had Hillary as a lock hours before the election. Fingers crossed we get both houses of Congress and a ton of Gov and state seats.

Yeah, but isn't the shithole Midwest trumplandia?

I mean, that's what all of the pundits say and they're always interviewing the idiots here.

Guess the dotard is not as popular as the media keeps saying he is.

If the economy wasn't going well (thanks Obama) his popularity would be below 20%. He is not liked but that extra 15-18% think he has made this economy good when all he has done is juice it by juicing the deficit in good times which is fiscally insane.

Well, the economy might take a tumble, so...

Will that increase Republican enthusiasm?

Nope. The core won't desert him, absent a completely catastrophic meltdown, but certainly some of them will peel off and/or lose heart, either staying home or switching to Independent or Democrat. I hate to say it but a major stock market correction and recession might be, in the end, good for the country.

r214 W still had a 24% approval even during the great recession and epic foreign policy fuck ups. Dump could go lower since so many of those regular repugs hate him.

We have to take the Senate. We have to.We are going to take BOTH houses. focus your Karma!!!!!!

[quote]Well, the economy might take a tumble, so...Will that increase Republican enthusiasm?

It might. Trump and the Deplorables are already positioning it as a plot by the Federal Reserve to take down Trump and destroy his "success". Remember... it's everyone else's fault. Trump cannot and will not ever err.

R217, you’re talking about Trump’s nutcase base. They don’t make up 100% of the Republican party.

His base is all bark and no bite. Fuck them. They truly represent about 20-25% max. If the economy suffers, Dump is flushed. That is why he juiced it with those stupid, deficit busting tax cuts. Fiscal insanity. It absolutely will over heat. Conservatives fuck up the economy every single fucking time they get elected. We will never learn.

R219 "Conservatives fuck up the economy every single fucking time they get elected. We will never learn." I'm just a 20-something but even I can look at the basic historical data and see that the right wing in most countries most times either ruin an economy, superboost it for a crash, or leave it rather languishing, while the left wing only really fucks it up when they go for extreme transformations. Democratic presidents have *almost* always improved an economy before they left, while Republican presidents *almost* always make recessions or set up recessions for soon after they leave.

But ask the general folk and they think conservatives fix everything.

If Trump brings on a recession, he might stay at the same (or higher!) levels of support within the party, but it'll all go to shit in terms of party membership numbers and support with independents. His ~40% becomes lower 30s and I still think potentially 20s.

It amazes me how many people don't see this, r221. With these kind of amazing economic numbers Obama or hell, maybe even HRC would be sitting on 60% approval EASILY. Yet Trump still can't crack 50 even with the most biased of pollsters. And his "strong disapproval" numbers (the people who will NEVER vote for him) are usually in the 40 range.

If the economy goes south, (and it's terrible to even have any sort of hope for this given how much pain it might cause innocent people) Trump is absolutely fucking FINISHED. He'll be at 20-25 percent approval in no time and will be swept out in a landslide. His hardcore base, as loud as they may be, are not even a majority of Republicans, to say nothing of the rest of the country. Of course one never knows what sort of desperate measures he may take in such an instance, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

Given that the stock market crashed 850 points today, partly on fears of the damage that Trump's tariffs are doing both to our economy and to China's, there might be election repercussions.

[quote] If the economy goes south, (and it's terrible to even have any sort of hope for this given how much pain it might cause innocent people)

Yet you hope it.

No, I don't, Deplorable princess r224. Especially as I just got a new job that I'm not dying to lose after being unemployed for far too long. I was pointing out how Trump is being falsely buoyed by the great economy.

Frankly it's sad that the Democrats can't come up with some other kind of compelling message.

[quote][R217], you’re talking about Trump’s nutcase base. They don’t make up 100% of the Republican party.

Then how does Trump have a 90% approval rating with the Republican Party, the highest in history?

r226 because the repugs are down to only the deplorables. Everyone else left the party.

No r227, it's because as disgusting as he is, Trump has been fulfilling most GOP wet dreams. Tax cuts, conservative Supreme Court Justices, etc. I guarantee you if the economy fucks up, or he starts losing elections, a significant portion of those will turn on him. If the Dems can retake the House and start making his life miserable, and in turn he starts becoming unhinged (or at least more unhinged than usual), check his approval rating among GOP voters.

[quote]Senator Stabenow in Michigan was never in trouble, but I sincerely hope the Democrats are able to turn around the Governors office and the state legislature because the Republicans have turned Michigan into a shithole.

The Democrat has a solid lead in the Michigan Governor's race so far.

Ha Ha . R224 busted.

I hope it fucking crashes! My boyfriend disagrees, he’s worried about it because his job depends on the economy doing well (people having money to spend), but like others here have said, if a financial crash is what it takes to finally get the most clueless among to dump Trump, BRING IT ON!

I’m not ashamed to say this.

2018 Troll Poll @ R198,

It is likely all six of the 2016 Republican pickup states for Donald Trump—Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (plus Maine #02)—will begin January 2019 with governors affiliated with the Democratic Party. Pennsylvania was a 2014 Democratic gubernatorial pickup, for incumbent Tom Wolf, in 2014. It would be retained, here in 2018, by the Democrats with re-election for Wolf. The rest would be 2014 Republican-to-2018 Democratic pickups.

Many states are prone to elect governors opposite the party of an incumbent U.S. president. Except in 1982 and 2014, Pennsylvania has been at it since 1938. Except for 1990, Michigan has been at it since 1978. This is a midterm election year. Last year, 2017, New Jersey once again retained this pattern—it has done it since 1989. There are more states to name—including the likely 2014 Republican-to-2018 Democratic pickup of New Mexico—but, really, it is not surprising. Since 1914, the Whtie House opposition party has won overall congressional seat gains in all but three midterm elections. And we have 36 of the nation’s states on the schedule for gubernatorial elections in midterm elections. 9 of them are from Top 10 populous states. So, the Democrats have 4 of the Top 10 in their column: California, New York, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. They may end up 8 or 9: pickups from Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan. That would be 8. And it may happen in Georgia, to make it 9.

R277 Sorry, but that is simply not the case. I do not know a single person who has expressed displeasure with the results of his being in office. Sure, there are individual acts which make most of us roll our eyes and feel a bit of embarrassment. But the overall feeling is: he did what we expected and hoped he would do. There have been no disasters yet(I am talking starting a war level disaster--not nominating a judge who liberals disapprove of) and he continues to raise the ire of the Left, and he refuses to suck up to minorities for political correctness and public approval from the Left. You and many choose to define that as racism. I and other reasonable voters do not. Having a Muslim family as the showpiece of one's convention presentation was complete ass suckery. Having the mother of Mike Brown as another center of the convention stage was even worse ass suckery. Most Americans have respect for our policemen, and we don't like to see a person who did his best to knock one off be celebrated. If that means racism to you, good luck in the future sir. You are going to hate it even more than you think.

Home run.

There is no question that he is far more popular than he was even one year ago. As for the fact that there are so few registered Republicans, I and pretty much everyone I know under 60 have registered as Independents since I began voting. Younger people do not want the stigma of being known as registered Republicans. For instance, I was in total shame and loathing during Dubya's 2 terms. My feelings towards him were similar to those that most here have towards Trump now. And I stand by my feelings that, while he is a far more pleasant human, George Bush was waaaay more dangerous and costly for the country.

Even though I have heard of people wishing for his assassination, I have yet to hear anyone calling for Trump to be tried as a war criminal.

We live in a 48 hour news cycle. This bump will be forgotten. Trump will fuck up in another area.

More democrats would vote if they would just give out free shit at the voting stations.

With the dp the way it is and its leadership, yep we're fucked again, as usual.

R233, why would Trump be tried as a war criminal? What war has he started?

People hope that Trump will rot in jail because he’s a traitor, and he’s not as popular as Russian online trolls and his Nazi rallies would suggest.

I don’t want to waste my time pointing out all the wrong it illogical statements in your post, but you make very little sense.

Another important word for this year's elections, r232 : REDISTRICTING. The census takes place in 2020, but governors and state senators elected this year (state reps are usually only two-year terms) will have a say in the process in 2021. That could be huge in many states (MI, OH, PA, etc.) If only we had a chance in the Texas shithole, since fuck all help we're going to get from the Supreme Court going forward.

Nearly 40% of Texas Latinos support Ted Cruz

It's ovah.

Trump has an 85% approval rating among all those who self identify as Republicans today. But it's like saying 85% of 12 people support him. Those who call themselves Republicans belong to a shrinking base. The rest are "Independents" or Democrats.

[quote]Nearly 40% of Texas Latinos support Ted Cruz

And, if this is true, it's why you can't have any sympathy for these red states or the people. They're getting what they want. The same thing can be said about Kentucky. THE PEOPLE ARE CRYING BECAUSE OF HEALTHCARE!!! Really? Kynect was working exceptionally well--but that was ObamaCare. So, they voted in Matt Bevin and Mitch McConnell who have taken hammers to it. Now, they're upset. AND, they're upset that people outside of Kentucky are being mean to them and won't help them....

R237 You can't be that dense.

RCP generic congressional ballot back down to 6.9.

Actually, democratic identity is down more than Republican identity. Both parties are now even in identity

How are the Senate races going in Nevada, Florida, Missouri and Tennessee?

Not good

Hey Poll Troll, any insight or data on whether Bredesen’s decision to say he’d vote for Kavanaugh has affected his Tennessee numbers? Thanks!

Nevada - A tie, with a very slight edge to Heller (R).

Florida - A tie, with a slightly larger edge to Nelson (D).

Missouri - A tie, with a very slight edge to McCaskill (D).

Tennessee - Likely republican. The latest poll (NYT/Sienna) was brutal but it's also a major outlier.

Arizona - Leaning Democratic.

Montana, West Virginia, Indiana - All in decent shape for the Democrats.

NEW POLL: Democrats stretch out to 10-point lead on generic ballot, are more energized for midterms after Kavanaugh fight

I care more about individual Senate and House race polls rather than the country as a whole.

Are those generic countrywide polls useful in any meaningful way?

Only for monitoring trends, R253. As others have noted, you don't pull the lever for a "generic Democrat," you vote for a specific candidate. But you can monitor general trends with those polls, watching as they go up or down for sustained periods.

Normal people who voted for Twitler (yes, there were some) never saw Charlottesville or Helsinki coming.

They are not happy with him now. They regret voting for him in 2016. That's why the Rethuglican Party is shrinking and Twitler can't climb out of the cellar, even with this economy. Because it's Obama's economy and everybody knows it.

r235, Пожалуйста, заткнитесь.

More Rapepublicans would vote if they would just let them rape people in the voting booths.

Most of the evil base of the evil GOP don't have stocks and don't care. There is nothing, in this world that will turn them against Trump or others in the GOP who side with Trump. Nothing! This a a cult. These are very low IQ people whose brains have been washed, completely. They were given the "gift" of a thumb's up on racism and hate and that gave them a high that will never leave them. Trump might be a psycho moron but he is the best con man this world has ever known.

Forgot to add, the way, and the ONLY way, to fight this is for Democrats to get out and vote on 11/6/18. Register now if you're not already registered. Mark that date down as the most important date in your life, because it is!

[quote]Hey Poll Troll, any insight or data on whether Bredesen’s decision to say he’d vote for Kavanaugh has affected his Tennessee numbers? Thanks!

There has been some talk the past few days that Bredesen’s decision to say he’d vote for Kavanaugh has angered some Tennessee Democrats, but I don't think it's been specifically tested in a poll question yet.

If Bezos lost billion$ in the stock market, I’m guessing the Kochs lost some $ too

New *WISCONSIN* Poll

NBC/Marist

Likely Voters

SENATE

Baldwin (D) 54%

Vukmir (R) 40%

**

GOVERNOR

Evers (D) 53%

Walker (R) 43%

**

Poll conducted 9/30 to 10/3

some good news in WI. Thanks, poll troll.

I hope Walker gets cunt punted into space.

The Senate race is certainly going very well for the Democrats in Wisconsin.

The Governor's race is too soon to call, though. The NBC/Marist poll is good for the Democrats, but there was a recent Marquette poll showing a close race for Governor.

So although Walker is vulnerable, we will need to see one more Wisconsin poll before making any definite conclusions.

538 update has Democrats back up to 78% chance of winning the House.

With a projected gain of 35 seats:

Shouldn't the Kanye fiasco in the Oval office today send every sane and intelligent person to the voting booths to vote democrat?

R253 asks,

[quote]Are those generic countrywide polls useful in any meaningful way?

Good question, R253.

Thank you, R267.

R244,

That Democratic +6.9 is averaged from nine polls. Two of them indicated margins of Democratic +0 and Democratic +2.

I dismiss them.

So, from an average of seven other polls, the margin is: Democratic +8.57.

In 2016, the Republicans won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by +1.08. (It was: Republican 49.11% vs. Democratic 48.03%.)

Add that 1.08 to 8.57 = a 2016-to-2018 Democratic shift of +9.65.

In past midterms 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010, the average number of seat gains—by the minority party which won over a new majority to flip the U.S. House—which each nationally shifted percentage point was nearly +3.60.

The 2018 Democrats would likely flip +3 or +4 seats just tying the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House.

So: 3.60 x 9.65 = +34 net gain in seats for the 2018 Democratic Party with flipping the U.S. House

Every fiasco of theirs every day should send every sane, intelligent person to the polls to vote Democratic but the key words are "sane" and - more importantly - "intelligent". Neither can be reliably found in America these days.

[quote] I dismiss them.

Bitch McConnell is a smug little shit. He was being interviewed on NPR this afternoon and he was so sure they'd maintain control of the Senate it made me want to smash his face in. We have to try to grab the Senate. We need to hang on to what we have and pick up two. Now which two, realistically, can we pour some resources into?

We need 3. Heidi is going down. NV, AZ and TN.

With the recent Bredesen revelations in Tennessee, plus the Kavanaugh effect, Blackburn has a lock now.

R274, is a troll. Recent revelations? That James O'Keefe mess?

LOL!!!!!

Yeah Bredesen is in real trouble.

Latino identity in Texas is not like other states. Latinos have been in Texas for hundreds of years, and George W specifically reaching it to them created some loyalty to the GOP. That 40% support Cruz is not surprising.

I'm glad to see so many governorships ready to flip.

[quote]So: 3.60 x 9.65 = +34 net gain in seats for the 2018 Democratic Party with flipping the U.S. House

Your calculations fit nicely with today's new 538 forecast showing the Democrats picking up 35 seats in the House.

Blackburn is far from a lock, I don't think she's going to make it.

[quote]Blackburn is far from a lock, I don't think she's going to make it.

If her debate performance from last night is any indication, then no. She will not make it.

The race seems to be moving very much towards Blackburn now.

She has led in all the new polls, and 538 now gives her an 80% chance of winning.

Bredesen was keeping this race competitive for a while because of his big name recognition in the state.

The problem for Bredesen is that the fundamentals in Tennessee are really beginning to work against him. This is a state that Trump won by a huge margin. Trump had the biggest margin of victory in Tennessee since Richard Nixon's landslide in 1972.

All the recent polls that show Repugs gaining are from the "Kavanaugh!" effect on the dumb fuckers. Their enthusiasm is already waning. The newer polls will show the Repugs losing interest again.

What I'm pissed about is all the polls that say young voters are still not going to bother showing up. At this point, I think we should vote to raise the age of voting to 25. As soon as these little shits are told we're going to take something away from them they'll flock to the polls. I'm almost to the point that I hope they do overturn Roe v. Wade because it's not people over 40 who are using that particular right. Maybe that will finally light a fire under their stupid asses. So sick of everyone born after 1985. Lazy and entitled...great combination.

Yes, I've seen you post this rant before, that you hope Roe is overturned so that the younger generation can suffer.

You're weird.

I'm not r282, but I'm equally at a loss to figure out what the hell is going to get young people off their asses and to the polls. The Democrats bend over backward trying to appeal to them and failing miserably, meanwhile the demographic that votes the most reliably gets ignored and left to the GOP. Of course now I can't find that clip of the young voters being interviewed by MSNBC and not a single one saying they're going to vote....

[quote] I dismiss them

If you dismiss the two very low polls aren't you likewise obligated to dismiss the two very high ones. Taking the average of the remaining five polls jumps the 6.9 all the way to 7.0. Funny how that works.

R285,

I dismiss them because Rasmussen Reports has routinely polled numbers +4 or below. I think they know the 2018 Democrats need to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +6. And Rasmussen is reporting lower margins for the sake of the Republicans. It has been a constant, with others, that the Democrats poll +7 or above.

The other pollster, at +2, is another I dismiss.

In elections, it’s not hard for those with the experience and knowledge to figure out what a party and/or a candidate needs in reaching particular numbers to suggest that party and/or candidate will win. So, pollsters more friendly toward a particular party, even when that party is in the majority on some level and is about to lose it, and yet continues to “report” poll numbers suggesting they’re in good shape, should not be trusted. In the 2008 Democratic presidential pickup year for Barack Obama, Rasmussen Reports—which has been known to skew Republican—did not report a poll showing Obama leading John McCain in the long-established bellwether state Ohio until October 2008. In 2004, George W. Bush won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.46 percentage points. Bush Jr. won Ohio by +2.11. The 2004 to 2008 U.S. Popular Vote had a margin shift that was Democratic +9.72 so that Obama took John Kerry’s –2.46 and won a Democratic pickup on that count with a margin of +7.26. In 2008 Ohio, Obama won a Democratic pickup of state with a margin of +4.59 percentage points. Plenty of polls showed Obama ahead of McCain in Ohio before Rasmussen starting reporting its polls on that state in October 2008.

Give it up R286, you're "explanation" is just digging your hole deeper. You're the same guy in 2016 who "dismissed" any poll that showed Hillary losing.

Annnnnnnnd you don't understand how polls work, evidently.

Rasmussen has been such an outlier since November, 2016 that one of two things is happening: either every other pollster is wrong or Rasmussen is wrong. Given Rasmussen's past history, I know which way I'd bet. You can use Rasmussen to monitor changes over time but it would be a mistake to take any of their specific polling numbers as gospel.

The bottom line: until new data comes to light that validates Rasmussen's approach, you can safely discard their national polling results.

Hispanic registered voters in Florida, by party: 837,000 Democrat 775,000 No party 527,000 Republican

Poll troll, what's up with all of the Ipsos polls today? They're all showing vast numbers of undecideds.

[quote] I'm equally at a loss to figure out what the hell is going to get young people off their asses and to the polls.

They know everything and you’re wrong. Both parties are wrong. Young people not going to vote until politicians clean up their acts and stop being corrupt. Once those pols clean up all the corruption, that’s when younger voters will vote. Right now, they simply cannot bring themselves to vote for any of the clown car candidates in America.

They aren’t filing taxes because they live in their parents basement or else they’re trustafarians whose dad’s accountant figures out all their financial stuff. They don’t have children to deduct from taxes. They’re not looking at wtf will happen to them when they retire. Their grandparents & great grandparents had pensions and great healthcare, so they don’t know what it looks like when elderly relatives are forced to wear rags and eat dry cat food. They don’t own houses. They don’t know what a tax deduction is.

When they get a paycheck, they’re shocked at how much us taken out in taxes (at least in my state). They say, “OMG, this is so UNFAIR!” The older generation is making us pay taxes to support them!” Well, yeah. If you pay a lot less now in taxes you are paying for your parents future. If you don’t pay now, you can be stuck with your parents in your house when you’re 50 and they’re 80. What fun! It will cost you a helluva lot of money to pay for their medical and living expenses out o& only your own paycheck in the future.

They have no idea what it’s like to live as an adult in America & HS and college didn’t prepare them in the least for figuring stuff out.

I agree with R289 about the Rasmussen polls. They are almost always heavily biased in favor of the Republicans. I've been looking at Rasmussen numbers for over 10 years now and can remember many occasions when their numbers were totally at odds with what was actually happening.

One famous example was when Rasmussen's final poll for November 2012 had Romney beating Obama, even though Obama ended up winning both the popular vote and the electoral college by clear margins.

R291, I'm not sure what's going on with the Ipsos polls, but I'll try to take a closer look later.

What Rasmussen sometimes tried to do in the past was to set a Republican narrative during the run-up to the election, then adjust their numbers as they got closer to the election date so that they could then claim to be accurate the next time they tried to set a Republican narrative. As Poll Troll notes, sometimes that didn't work.

If they are playing that game this year, you should expect to see their results shift to be more in line with the other polls beginning in the next week or two. Right now, though, they are way out in right field. Literally.

R294,

That last paragraph—yes, I have observed that as well with Rasmussen.

To answer R287—Rasmussen having the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, tied means the Democrats win a net gain of +3 or +4 seats. CNN, which this week released a poll showing Democrats leading by +13, indicates the Democrats would could win a net gain of +49 or +50 seats.

There is a huge difference between the Democrats going from 195 to only 198 seats, still a minority, to winning over a majority with as much as 245 seats.

One of the problems with liberals and nonconservatives is that we have this erroneous sense that really awful things won’t happen, things are inevitably gonna move toward progress. That’s killing us

R296, the entire history of the country, and the world for the most part, HAS moved inexorably toward progress. Conservative never, ever win long term. That's why they cheat. No one has ever been able to point to any significant conservative agenda that has won out over time.

[quote]the entire history of the country, and the world for the most part, HAS moved inexorably toward progress.

The question is which path to progress will we go on.

r298, in November 2016 we moved to 1929.

[quote] Rasmussen having the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, tied means the Democrats win a net gain of +3 or +4 seats. CNN, which this week released a poll showing Democrats leading by +13, indicates the Democrats would could win a net gain of +49 or +50 seats.

Yes, R295, and a normal reaction would be to throw out BOTH extreme polls as outliers. But you argued that only the one poll you didn't like be dismissed, That was the criticism against you.

R300,

I don’t like deliberate, false polls, R300.

Perhaps you understand.

R300 doesn't understand statistics.

I love my polls but I kind of wish publishing poll results would stop a month before the election. Campaigns can do their internal polling to shape their directions but I think, at this point, these polls have started to actually shape the elections. I also wish they wouldn't call states until after all the polling places in the whole country are closed. It keeps people out West from going to the polls and the late, after work voters are usually more Democratic.

R292 The most sensible and simple explanation I have heard yet. That completely explains why the under 25s just don't care and say that both parties are as bad as the other so who cares? Colin Kaepernick, the well know non-voter isn't quite that young, but nevertheless, I betcha that is exactly why he doesn't vote.

It’s also not hip to be committed to a party. It’s hip to say both parties are bad, corrupt. Hillary was perceived as at least as bad as Trump because she was Part of the Establishment. Her policies didn’t matter. Partisans are more likely to vote and be politically engaged than noncommittals.

Internal polling is what counts. And we may never know that result. Internal polling has to be as accurate as possible so a candidate will know where and how much to spend and deploy campaign resources. Right now it's getting into the weeds literally going from precinct to precinct to identify your supporters and get them out. And the absentee ballots a re out in many places and people have already voted. The absentees will very likely decide the elections in many places. If you keep a close eye on the state wide races, and watch how they use the candidate where he goes to campaign, and where they are targeting their resources you'll have a very good idea of who is ahead.

I'm praying the young people's vote is the "stealth vote" and we wills see more of them turn out than we expect. Right now those Parkland kids have been traveling the country doing get out the vote events and registering young people. The gun safety issue is a major selling point. And Environmental issues are a big deal with younger voters. I'm just not prepared to write them off. As for the Senate races, we need to go back to the simplest message. The Republicans are evil, vote straight Democratic. Don't worry about the specifics, just vote for the Democrats. Period. All the crap about the Kavanaugh hearings "energizing the base." we can work that in our favor. The absurdity of he Republicans painting themselves as victims and portraying the Dems as an angry mob are bullshit. If I were running, I'd embrace it. "Of course I'm angry. " And then list all the ways they have fucked us.

If you want to make sure that you are not purged from the voting rolls, VOTE IN THE PRIMARIES.

To vote in the primaries you have to pick a party.

People who do not vote in primaries and then complain about the candidates are idiots who do not understand the process.

is there any data showing if the newly (since last October) arrived Puerto Ricans in Florida plan on voting?

"Oh, shit. Is it Wednesday? I forgot to vote!"

....

Harry Enten's new analysis.

Looking bad for the Democrats in the Senate, but some positive signs for the Dems in the Midwest pointing towards 2020:

Real Clear Politics analysis:

With the election less than 24 days away, Republicans are seeing momentum in polls after the Kavanaugh hearings and a new path to holding their majority in the House. To do this, they need to stop Democrats from reaching a net pickup of 23 seats, which will likely require raising more last-minute money. Currently, many election watchers believe Democrats will gain anywhere from 20 to 40 seats. However, if their loss of momentum persists, the lower end of that range becomes more likely and Republicans would maintain a slender majority.

Corry Bliss, executive director of the CLF, said he believes “if the election were held today, the Republicans would win 20 to 30 of the closes races. Our issue now is how to sustain the momentum until Election Day.”

The CLF has field offices in 40 districts and has committed resources to all of these races. According to the memo, the CLF polled in 20 districts last week and has seen a five-point improvement with the president’s approval numbers. With this new strength, the CLF has seen significant gains in the following six districts, which are now considered out of the danger zone: Andy Barr (KY-06), Mike Bost (IL-12), Rodney Davis (IL-13), Will Hurd (TX-23), Brian Mast (FL-18), and John Katko (NY-24). There are also improving conditions in all six of the battleground Republican-held seats in California. For Democrats to take over the House, they likely must flip some of these Golden State seats.

“For most of the summer, Democrats were winning independent voters, but the Kavanaugh hearings fired up the base and now they are back looking more like Republicans,” said Bliss. “Our closing argument is going to be results versus resistance.”

The biggest problem for Republicans is that they are being massively outspent by Democratic candidates and the national committees. “Democratic candidates are outspending Republican candidates in key races by $50 million and the GOP is now facing a green wave, not a blue wave,” said Bliss.

You can blame this if the Dems don't take the House.

And CNN showed it over and over.

oh please. If people are more turned off by anti-Kavanaugh protests instead of the lowest forms of life who show up at Trump rallies chanting "lock her up" then they're idiots.

The Democratic Party will take the House and possibly the Senate, nothing has changed.

Dumb cunt Rapepublicans screeching about other people being "angry mobs" are just fucking around. Don't fall for it, never listen to anything they say.

R307 Florida here: Funny you should bring up Parkland. The sole political ad on TV featuring even the word Parkland(any reference to the shooting) is a fucking ad for Rick Scott for US senator and the father of a victim endorsing him against Bill Nelson.

Thankfully it appears that cousin Bill is pulling ahead.

R317, it will be interesting to see what the post-Hurricane polls show for Bill Nelson vs. Rick Scott.

We may have to wait a few days.

Speaking of waiting for a few days, R318, I think all this recent doom and gloom talk about Repug gains and increases in enthusiasm due to Kavanaugh and Democrats chances lessening for the Senate, etc. also require waiting a few days. All the recent polls are from the week or so after the Kavanaugh circus. As far as Scott is concerned, I think he looks like an cancer-ravaged actor playing governor with his little hat and emaciated body. Not sure he'll get much of a bump.

[quote]To vote in the primaries you have to pick a party.

Absolutely true, but I'm a liberal in a deep red state and there are advantages to being independent or unaffiliated. I also know a group of people who are Dem but registered as Repug to try to screw with their primaries.

As a registered Dem I routinely would get refused advanced ballots or get hassled at the polls -- when I went to independent, that all stopped. I figure I have a better chance of my vote being counted, too.

The voter suppression going on nationwide has been rampant in Kansas since I was able to vote in the early 1990s. Probably a lot of Southern and Midwestern states have been like this for generations.

new ABC/WashPost poll on control of Congress:

Dems 53% Republicans 42%

R320 The only problem with being a registered independent is that you can't vote in either Dem or Rep primaries.

r314, you mean that hordes of women who showed up to protest the Kavanaugh nomination?

You can blame women if we DO take the House.

Battleground Tracker: Democratic lead continues to grow in race for the House

[quote] The sole political ad on TV featuring even the word Parkland(any reference to the shooting) is a fucking ad for Rick Scott for US senator and the father of a victim endorsing him against Bill Nelson.

I’ll bet that’s Andrew Pollack. He’s a deplorable who wants teachers to carry guns

Ari Melber is reporting that Republicans are starting to fight blaming whoever about why they lost the House.

BUT STAY FOCUSED!!!! GET OUT THE VOTE!!!

[quote]As far as Scott is concerned, I think he looks like an cancer-ravaged actor playing governor with his little hat and emaciated body. Not sure he'll get much of a bump.

Haven't seen any new Florida polls for Nelson vs. Scott yes.

In theory the fundamentals of the race should work in Nelson's favor. That's why 538 has the race leaning in Nelson's direction.

However, the numbers are still very close in Florida, and one poll had a small lead for Scott a week or so ago.

Plus, I think the CNN debate between Nelson & Scott was postponed because of the Hurricane. So lots going on in the FL Senate race.

Dems need to learn to ignore the polls and just VOTE, like Republicans do. We as a group get disheartened and kind of lazy about it too easily.

JUST VOTE!

It's great to say 'just vote' but with all these fucking stories about the cheating and removing of people from voting rolls and on and on is it even going to fucking matter if a billion of us show up? I'm just getting pissed. Georgia's fuckery, Prairie View A&M racism in Texas, and now the Native Americans in North Dakota. And those are just the blatant ones in the news in the last two days!

Republicans win when Democrats do not vote.

150% of Democrats who voted in 2016, may have to vote in 2018 to offset all the Republican fuckery.

VOTE!

But, you don't give up R330 Many of us took our vote for granted. Now, many of us might fight for that right.

[quote]It's great to say 'just vote' but with all these fucking stories about the cheating and removing of people from voting rolls and on and on is it even going to fucking matter if a billion of us show up? I'm just getting pissed. Georgia's fuckery, Prairie View A&M racism in Texas, and now the Native Americans in North Dakota. And those are just the blatant ones in the news in the last two days!

But, where is the outrage from every American? Republicans will NEVER be able to say shit to me again! I don't want to hear about deficits, voter fraud, or whatever nonsense they say! I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime. They're not even trying to hide that they are cheating. How are we sitting back and allowing this? And now...

They are purging voter rolls in many states. They cannot be trusted. They must be stopped.

R330, just remember this: In 2016, Hillary won the popular vote. By a margin of nearly 3 million votes. She had the Comey bullshit, she had a hostile media, (600 days of constant negative media attention mentioning the "e-mail scandal" amid chants to "lock her up!" and Rudy Guliani convincing the media "indictments are coming any day!" She had the Mercers, Cambridge Analytica, and a shit ton od dark money, Russian interference, and voter manipulation, voter suppression, fraud, etc. Hillary faced a perfect storm of all the shit you point out and much, much more. And she won the popular vote. The only reason she is not President is because the Electoral college was in the way. This year, there is no electoral college. This year we are aware of what went on. This year we are more vigilant, and more aggressive about calling it out. There are legitimate organizations and they are on top of this in a way that we could not have been in 2016, because we had no idea of the full depth of fraud and interference. But we know now. And the way to over come it is to do what we did in 2016. VOTE> Overwhelming turnout. Instead of being discouraged we should be angry and ready to get in their faces at the ballot box. Hillary showed us we can do this.

And now it vanishes...

We are truly in a two week cycle.

New fundraising update from the New York Times on the latest FEC filings:

"Democratic candidates have outraised their Republican opponents in a majority of the 69 most competitive House races"

[quote] The only reason she is not President is because the Electoral college was in the way.

Yes, that was quite inconvenient the way that popped out of nowhere.

Dems need to stop thinking about anything other than going to vote straight D on ED. It doesn't matter who is on there or what they have to say. This time nothing else matters other than you vote for all the Democrats running in your part of the country. This is the most important election of your life. If you're not rich your vote for the Democrats might save your life. Just do it. Stop reading about this D or that D and just vote. The very, very worst D no matter what he or she stands for is better than the best Republican. VOTE!!! PLEASE!!!!!

Right now the Republicans are running ads around the clock telling people in Georgia that Tracy Abrams is "too extreme" and having victims of sexual assault talk about how she refused to vote to fund DNA stuff. The whole "extreme" or "angry mob" thing is catching on or at least the GOP is repeating it constantly. WE need to keep preaching to Dems and Indies and disaffected Republicans. Ignore the noise. Vote Democratic.

[quote]Right now the Republicans are running ads around the clock

They're coming across to me as hysterical. The stuff that they are doing regarding voter registration and the ads they're running is overwhelming.

Right now people are living longer and there are still too many old Republicans. There are seniors in their 80s and 90s willing to get out of their death beds to just to cast votes that will not make a single difference to them. Millennials just don't care enough about politics. You will see very few of them standing in line on election day and more old people being wheeled to the voting polls by their caretakers.

[quote]Millennials just don't care enough about politics.

So do you blame the Millennials or the message that isn't getting through to them?

There is something wrong when people are losing hard fought rights and yet they are oblivious to them. Where were women in 2016? What Trump is saying and doing shouldn't be a surprise. Where were Blacks as Republicans gutted the Voting Rights Act? Where are the gays?

People won't react until something directly affects them or they begin to feel the affects. But, why must it reach this level? Somehow the message has got to get across to all about the value of their rights and that they should never be take for granted.

And that means reaching out to everyone. The Democrats (in my opinion) really missed an opportunity to election cycle by not having a strategy that specifically targeted Latinos and Asians.

A lack of civics education is the problem. And garbage entertainment culture that deadens awareness of things that matter

Democrats are outraising Repugs with real money you can see. The Repugs are outraising the Dems in dark, nasty money from places like Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Most people don't need to stand in line to vote, it's all advanced voting or absentee ballots. If somebody doesn't vote, it's either because they've been disenfranchised, probably on purpose, or because they've decided not to vote.

Those of us who want to vote and who can, whose votes are more likely to be counted, need to make sure we get out to vote, and encourage others to vote as well.

Sitting around whining about Millennials not voting doesn't do anything. Stop wasting our time. Go do something constructive.

R343 How would you have the dems target Latinos & Asians?

They have the party platform written pretty much to cater to both groups as well as other racial minorities. Asians aren't to thrilled with affirmative action because it keeps some of their overachievers out of some colleges but they're not going to anger African Americans on the issue..

Latinos have been given open borders, DACA & everything else their hearts desire. What policy have the dems have told them no to their faces?

Native Americans voting dropped big time in '16. Hillary wasn't their favorite candidate it seemed. No one ever seems to mention this shocking result.

Sexual minorities (like us) have been the only group that the dems have withdrawn policy/party platform support on (gays in the military, marriage equality, etc.).

The party does seem to have a problem selling some feminists & LGBTers on the 50,000+ Muslims Hillary wanted to bring into our country if she had won (including me but I still reluctantly voted for her).

[quote]How would you have the dems target Latinos & Asians?

TELEVISION!!!!

Specifically schedule campaign events (more than one) in their neighborhoods and then make sure it receives LOTS of press and TELEVISION! People like to see their own being featured. It inspires them.

And finally....

STOP TALKING ABOUT HILLARY!!! I like Hillary but she is NOT today's news.

I'm sick of people nagging me about voting every day, talking at me like I'm an imbecile or a child. Fuck you.

If you are so gung-ho about people going out and doing something, what are you doing here?

[quote]Where are the gays?

Well, unfortunately it appears that gays voted for Trump/the Republicans in larger numbers than they had for previous Republican nominees.

People were sold the line in 2016 that Trump was not personally anti-gay and was not a social conservative or a religious conservative, so he appears to have done better with gays than Romney, McCain, Bush, etc.

R350, not according to exit polls

No, R350, we didn't vote for him in significant numbers. Only 12 - 14% of LGBT voters went with the Fat Fuck.

You know us, doll, no fatties.

[quote]Well, unfortunately it appears that gays voted for Trump/the Republicans in larger numbers than they had for previous Republican nominees.

Why do people lie like this and think that they can get away with it? Trump got 14% of LGBT voters; Romney got 22%. Free clue: 14% is not larger than 22%.

[quote]Most people don't need to stand in line to vote, it's all advanced voting or absentee ballots.

That may be true in your state; it's not true in every state. Some states, for example, restrict absentee ballots. And the advanced voting period and available polling stations differ from state to state.

It's easier to vote in Democratically controlled states. There is more absentee voting, more early voting, simpler, faster registration, etc. In Republican controlled states they oppose voting and are against voting rights. They put impediments in the way at every opportunity in their effort to suppress legal voters in America.

This is one of the ways that the Rethuglicans reveal themselves to be anti-American and anti-citizen.

I'm Asian. I don't think I can vote Dem this year.

Considering your other posts, R356, there was zero chance that you would be voting Democratic this year and it has nothing at all to do with being Asian.

R356 is not Asian.

This is R356:

Whelp... good news for Republicans. "Morning Joe" is reporting that Latinos will sit the mid-term election out. I've heard two reasons regarding this. 1) The community is pissed about immigration-- This makes no sense to me. You don't become apathetic and do noting if you are pissed. 2) They are afraid of harassment--Now, this makes sense to me.

Well, if the Evangelical Latinos who support Trump sit it out, then fine. But the rest of the Latino community needs to get out and vote. Stop shitting around. African American voters have been harassed and denied for decades but they keep showing up and pushing back. I can't imagine as a whole, Latino voters would be too timid to do likewise.

Sorry, but if Latinos sit out in large enough numbers to fuck Beto/Sinema/Nelson etc, then as far as I'm concerned it's time to dump illegal immigrants overboard. Let someone else rally for lawbreakers, if they're only going to cost the Dems votes and offer nothing in return.

R361 are you assuming all Latinos are illegal or support illegals? WTF are you talking about.

I have to wonder if some Latino voters are like ex-smokers.

Ex-smokers are usually more rabidly anti-smoking than someone who never smoked.

Are some Latinos more anti-immigrant than people who were born in this country?

Serious question.

I think what r361 is saying is that the Dem platform has focused on immigration issues as a means of courting Latino voters. Presumably this has come at the expense of talking about other issues important to Dems and especially swing voters, as well as possibly turning off some swing voters who are for a more conservative approach to immigration.

a lot of Latinos are super catholics so they're naturally drawn to a conservative/repub social platform. It's the racism and in some cases xenophobia against Latinos that turns SOME OF THEM off. A lot of the white Latinos are conservatives as they feel people will overlook their last name and just see a white person. I'm sure you know there's a lot of racism within the Latin community. Look at Spanish speaking tv and you'll see most of the people who are allowed to go on air look more white. You don't see many black or amerindian looking news hosts, reporters, actors etc

Thank you, r364. That's exactly what I was going for. And, at least here in AZ, immigration makes some otherwise sane voters go beserk. They can support gay right, support medicare for all, support abortion, but once immigration comes into it they become rabid deplorables. If the Democrats were pulling in thousands of Latinos to counterbalance that then it might be okay, if not...

I was shocked to discover how many Latinos are attracted to the Evangelical religion. Also A lot of LAtino Americans resent being stereotyped as not being born here or of once being illegal. Many Latinos are immigrants but many are not. THey were born here. Many of them were legal immigrants. So to stereo type them causes resentment.

r363 You are correct. Just like closeted gays are the most homophobic.

[quote]I think what R361 is saying is that the Dem platform has focused on immigration issues as a means of courting Latino voters.

Except that's not what the data show. On the list of issues that Democratic candidates are running advertisements on, immigration is twelfth on the list, with 3.4% of the spending. Ahead of that is health care, Trump, jobs, social issues, taxes, education, energy/environment, and guns.

Correction: Immigration is number 9 on the list, not twelfth. The rest of the information is correct.

The kidnappings and chilren's prison camps are a huge immigration issue. The dumb fucking wall we don't need is another one.

Democrats believe in immigration as a fundamental American value. We like immigrants. We want them to come here. We don't want Fortress America, we don't want the American Wall, like the old Berlin Wall. The very idea of walling in our country is fucking stupid and anti-American.

The Rapepublicans and their trolls are putting out a lot of smoke and trash, all of it in desperation. The Latino community is going to demolish the Rapepublicans, just demolish them. They put Latino children, babies even, in cages. They send five year old Latino children into American courts by themselves and have them sign away their rights.

Latinos are going to fucking crucify the Rapepublicans for this and rightly so.

Early voting in Georgia has already started and the numbers are breaking records -- let's hope it's the blue wave in action.

That Blue Wave is building all over the country.

You know, if the Republicans think they can play out this string indefinitely they're playing with fire. LI mean a conflagration. This country is a powder keg right now. They cannot keep suppressing the vote and committing fraud, and ignoring the masses. If tens of millions of people go to the polls this Midterm, and those fuckers steal various state elections and continue to ignore the will of the people then those who always sought redress of grievances through the system, through voting or through the laws or the courts, and consistently denied these redresses through fraud and suppression will have very few options available. WTF do they think we the people are going to do? Because if they think we will put up with this crap and just give in and submit to the filthy corrupt despicable practices they embrace, and t hat we will allow them to shit on us, denying us basic rights, etc. they are really badly mistaken.

Deplorables can laugh all they want about "owning libs" or whatever stupid shit they say. In the end, after the Repugs have given clear signals they want to go after SS, Medicare and Medicaid, while trying to sabotage the deficit and debt to get it done, they won't be laughing last.

Repugs are always enthusiastic. It's just in their nature to screw people over, including themselves.

The best defense is to overwhelm them with numbers and get reasonable people in office instead of crazed Trumpsters who literally want the world to burn and probably couldn't even tell you why.

My mom's side of the family are recent German immigrants -- I had to learn German as a kid in the 1970s to talk to my older relatives, they never learned English -- and they're all pro-Trump anti-immigration nightmares. I asked one cousin if he'd like it if Trump had kept our family out 80 years ago and he absolutely lost his shit saying "We're not immigrants. We're from Dusseldorf!"

And this is a smart guy, too, high IQ, computer programmer, chess champion, but holy fucking shit is he racist beyond belief. That racism makes him "enthusiastic."

You can't reason with it so you have to outvote it.

Actually you relatives sound smarter than you, R376, since you don't seem to know the difference between legal and illegal immigrants.

One side of my family turned to Dump solely over Obama and immigration.

Now, they don't want to speak about him and won't say if they still support him. Their son got in trouble in school for saying he could grab pussy and it's ok now.

They just post pictures on FB or Insta now.

R376 said it well

We really need to flip the Senate. I have a feeling that Florida and Texas will lie cheat and steal to get Scott and keep Cruz. No one likes Cruz, but his defeat would really make the Republicans look bad. So it's not love of Ted Cruz that impels them rather it is saving face. Now that slimy piece of shit McConnell is talking about gaining even more seats in the Senate. They are at war people make no mistake.

[quote]We really need to flip the Senate.

It is in the hands of God now. I'm brought to tears seeing our American Indians fight for their right to vote; All of the people standing in line for 3 hours to vote; And, the Afro-American seniors who sang the Negro spiritual "We Won't Turn Around" as they vowed their determination to vote.

This is a war of the good versus the evil. Republicans are evil.

Ain't gonna let nobody turn me 'round...

Old Civil Rights songs from the Movement days. Time to dust them off.

agree, r381.

I want to punch Roberts and blackout Brett right in the dick for stripping native Americans of their voting rights. That is just disgusting.

We have treated the native Americans like shit and it's high time they are treated with the respect and dignity they deserve.

Going to punch Latina Sotomayor and paleface Breyer while you're at it? And on the subject of blackouts you seem to have had one. Brett didn't take part in the decision.

Why aren't Democrats screaming about the GOP intent to cut, more like savage, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and the ACA and with it any help for those with pre existing conditions? With only 3 weeks left why aren't they on the streets of every state...in every city and on every CNN and MSNBC show talking about the only thing that maybe, just maybe will get the GOP fuckers to vote blue?

/

Exactly

rethug voters won't vote blue even when they get tossed off SSDI.

Guns, babies and Jesus are the only thing they care, about.

It's those people who are disgusted with this whole kkklan that we need to talk to.

Those three hour long lines to vote in Georgia look really white. Do they do any sort of exit polling on the early voting? There's no chance those are white Repugs, right?

R385, McConnell just gave them something to say "Aha! See there, they admit to it!" yesterday. Breathe.

There are only so many hours in a day and McConnell's threat to Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security is fresh. Yes, of course they were under threat already but you have got to pay attention to the times we are living in. It's a Tsunami of right wing bullshit and threats every day. Democratic candidates do need to focus on health care, on pre-existing conditions, on putting Trump in check, on whatever local issues are top of the constituents' concerns. Also they have to focus on Social Security and on Medicare and on Medicaid and on education and the Mueller investigation and on recovery from hurricanes and on our troops abroad and on those kids in internment camps in Texas and on and on and on.

Seriously, asking why each day's fresh hell isn't up and running in everybody's ads every day doesn't make much sense to me.

since it is three weeks from election day, everyone is home in their districts and states talking to the folks. They may well be talking about this at home.

You have got to take a breath.

Completely agree, R389. I can't even keep up with the scandals anymore. It's driving me insane. I hope to be able to breathe again on November 7th. But, then again, I can't imagine what fresh hell will be unleashed when the Repugs actually feel their power being put in check come January.

Well, the lame duck session is likely to be an unbelievably horrific spectacle r390, but I'll take it if it means Dems controlling the House in January.

Arizona early returns. dems 65311 repubs 92776 other 45591

So much of the discussion about the midterms reminds me of Virginia last year. Polling showed a close race and the media began questioning whether democrats had blown it. Then on election day, democrats swept and almost flipped the house of delegates despite not a single pollster saying it was even a possibility. And before someone says Virginia is a blue states, Hillary barely won it in 2016 despite her running mate being form Virginia.

My point is, polling is pretty irrelevant in wave years. Most of it relies on information from 2010 and 2014.

R392, those "others" piss me off. It wouldn't surprise me at all if I found out they were backed by the Trump operation.

WTF r394? In Arizona, we can register as Dem, Rep, or Indep (or Lib/Green). In AZ, independents make up a third of the electorate and you can't win an election without them. BTW, those stats don't mean everything - I personally corralled 4 GOP family members to vote for Sinema (I actually hovered over their shoulders while they filled out their ballots).

r391 is correct. once the ratfuckers realize they are getting kicked to the curb, they will pull out all of the stops to hobble the new Congress.

Never forget what that shit stain in NC did when he found out he lost to a Dem. He tried to strip the governor's office of all power so the incoming Dem governor wouldn't be able to put a check on the state legislature that was full of other ratfuckers.

Be ready to hit the streets and burn up those phone lines. It won't be over until January 2021.

This is war. Not a battle. But hold tight. We can do this.

How is it going in Nevada? I thought Heller was going to go down but he seems to be doing well now

About as tight as you can get, R397. There was an outlier poll from Emerson College that seemed to show Heller pulling away but the two most recent polls from PPP and Vox Populi have had Rosen back on top. 538 has it as Rosen with a 4 in 9 chance, with Heller 5 in 9, so a small advantage to the Republican.

Remember that this is still the Reid Machine and the Reid Machine does not poll.

My prediction, Rosen by 5.

Almost all of these polls are still showing effects of the Kavanaugh bump in enthusiasm that the Repugs got two weeks ago. Most polling companies are one to two weeks behind because they're not huge operations like the NY Times.

Those Arizona numbers are ridiculous. I found a link and it looks like it's a bunch of old men voting so far. Plus, these aren't actually votes they are counting. They are looking at how people who have returned their ballots usually have voted in the past and then putting them in that category. It doesn't take into account people who are changing their party this year. They also, unless I'm reading it wrong, are determining gender by first name probability. It currently shows that the votes so far are only 47% female. It's the women who are switching parties this year and who normally vote Democratic in higher numbers. So, basically, these early "returns" are bullshit if you look at the details.

And, I agree that anyone who votes third party is a fucking asshole. It's a vote for Trump and his ilk without having to admit to it. Cowardly and stupid. Definitely embarrassed Repugs.

Seriously, do people not understand that early voting numbers (either by mail or in person) are only the party registrations of people who are returning ballots? There is no legal way to link who has voted already with who they voted for, as we still technically have a secret ballot. As I said earlier, I made sure that 4 of those GOP votes in AZ were for Sinema, and I am a registered Independent who also voted straight Dem.

No votes have been counted yet, or if they have been counted, the results are kept secret in some machine until Election Day. Older people and Republicans traditionally dominate early voting, although more Democrats are voting early this year. However, we don't know if that means heavier Democratic turnout, or simply vote-shifting, where people who would have voted on Election Day are voting early instead, with no net change.

[quote]Remember that this is still the Reid Machine and the Reid Machine does not poll.

[quote]My prediction, Rosen by 5.

Yes, it's possible that the Reid Machine will deliver a victory to Jacky Rosen in November.

Harry Reid's machine helped him beat Sharron Angle in 2010, and it helped Cortez Masto retain Reid's seat when he retired in 2016.

Plus, it helped Hillary beat Trump.

However, beating Heller won't be easy. Jon Ralston, an expert in Nevada politics, has pointed out that Heller has never lost an election before. He won all his elections as a Member of the House of Representatives, and as NV Secretary of State. So Rosen can't take anything for granted.

Call the Arizona numbers ridiculous if it makes you feel better but they were copied from the Secretary of State's website.

R403, you seem to think that those numbers reflect votes. They don't. To pretend they do and to post as if they are vote totals is disingenuous and, yes, ridiculous.

Heitkamp was 10 points down in the polls when she won last time. Just keep that in mind.

R405, yes, it's true that there were some people in 2012 who said that Heitkamp wouldn't be able to retain the North Dakota seat for the Democrats after long-time Democratic Senator Kent Conrad retired.

Although Heitkamp will never be able to win North Dakota by the numbers that Kent Conrad did, she did prevail in 2012, and it's always possible she could do so in 2016.

That should be in 2018.

Real Clear Politics predict Repub senate pickups in North Dakota, Missouri, and Fla. 54 to 46

House dems 205. Repubs 198. 32 toss-ups.

we're fucked unless there truly are a ton of voters who just didn't get polled. I'm hoping all the ones who answer are those batty deplorables.

to clarify I mean so far I hope the ones who answered the phone for the poll calls are the deplorables and there are just a lot of people voting for democrats who didn't respond to the polls

r409, I believe that Democrats stopped taking polling cals months ago, both land lines and cells. I believe that the polling models are broken and here, in Nevada, it is the reason why Harry Reid's "internals" were right when the pollsters were so wrong in 2010. I believe that the Dems are a strong +5.

[quote]Real Clear Politics predict Repub senate pickups in North Dakota, Missouri, and Fla. 54 to 46

North Dakota is definitely leaning Republican in most Senate forecasts.

However, 538 shows the Missouri and Florida Senate races still being within Democratic reach, so RCP is being more pessimistic about Dem chances.

Every single election in the last two years has seen extraordinary Democratic turnout beyond all polling predictions. Why would that not be true for the bigger, nation-wide election?

But the question is how energized conservatives are now post Kavanaugh.

Look. First of all they have power. All three branches, including both houses of Congress. They aren't going to sit around and let anyone take it away from them. Did anyone think all this bragging about the "Blue Wave" was going to intimidate them? They aren't going to give it up. Politics is war. And the Republicans are going to put up a fight. So yeah, the gap is closing.

It doesn't matter what the polls forecast a month ago. Things were always going to tighten up. It doesn't really mean that much. It isn't "news." It's the media trying to hype this and fill time & space. The main thing to remember is that they will fight to not just hold on, but to make gains where they can. That's the thing. The Republicans are always fighting. They never stop fighting no matter what the outcome is.

They don't take "down time." The week after this election is over, they will still be at it. Next year, they will still be at it. They never quit. They never accept defeat, and they never extend courtesy to their Democratic colleagues. In fact, the Presidential election begins the week after the Midterms. We need to lose our capacity to be shocked by anything they say or do. And we need to remember they always lie. "fake it 'til you make it." They never act like they're losing. They talk strong. They have attitude. We need to adopt the style, not the substance.

Exactly

Repubs are in a perpetual state of hyper energetic political awareness and activity. Democrats still haven’t ignited Hispanic or young voters. Why are we so lethargic at politics?

So, you give up R415? I don't get this. What is needed? Must an individual be personally affected in order to wake up?

-Where are the Black folks throughout the country who are OUTRAGED by the attempts at voter suppression? Heck! Where's anybody?

-Where are all of the women who are outraged that their rights are being attacked and that there are others that want them to reclaim their status as chattel?

-Where are all of the gay people (besides us few here on DL) who are outraged as the religious right and conservative judges look to implement discrimination laws?

-Where are the Latinos? Are they THAT intimidated?

This shouldn't even be a question of "IF" the Democrats will take back the House and the Senate. The inability to do so will speak VOLUMES about the American electorate and what values they have or don't.

Younger voters have never turned out in the numbers that older voters do, regardless of which political party they belong to. There is reason to believe, though, that they will turn out in larger numbers this year.

[quote]The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, which researches the political engagement of young Americans, estimated that 23 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds turned out in Alabama’s special election for U.S. Senate, well above the 11 percent of that age group that CIRCLE had previously estimated turned out for the 2014 midterm. CIRCLE also estimated that 34 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds turned out to vote in Virginia’s gubernatorial election last year, again far exceeding the group’s 2014 turnout rate of 13 percent, according to CIRCLE’s estimate. What’s more, in early October, CIRCLE released its own large-sample survey from the pollster GfK that found that 34 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds said they were “extremely likely” to vote this November. CIRCLE described this figure as “close to the levels of engagement seen in the 2016 presidential election.”

[quote]There is reason to believe, though, that they will turn out in larger numbers this year.

And, if they don't then they should shut up about guns.

And where are all the white dudes organizing and protesting alongside all the black folks, women, gays & lesbians, and Latinos? How about you ask those with the most power what they are doing other than sitting around with their thumbs up their asses.

Women are the most reliable voters, and black women are the most reliable Democratic voters. How about you help take a few grandmas to the polls?

Obviously meant for r418.

New WSJ/NBC News poll finds President Trump’s job-approval rating at 47%, the highest mark of his time in office.

That same poll, R423, found that Democrats were +9 in the Generic Congressional Vote. Funny how you didn't want to mention that.

R412: "In an interview with the conservative magazine Human Events, McIntyre described the philosophy behind the Web site as based on "freedom" and "common-sense values". Said Bevan, "We think debate on the issues is a very important thing. We post a variety of opinions". He further stated, "we have a frustration all conservatives have", which is "the bias in media against conservatives, religious conservatives, [and] Christian conservatives"."

That's because RCP is right wing, was founded by 2 right wingers interviewed above...

It's not that simple, R425. Yes, RCP leans conservative but the biggest difference between 538 and RCP is that 538 tweaks pollster numbers based on prior performance and RCP does not. So a pollster like Rasmussen, which is about as blatantly conservative as you can get, is reported as is on RCP but is tweaked by a couple of percentage points on 538.

[quote]And where are all the white dudes organizing and protesting alongside all the black folks, women, gays & lesbians, and Latinos? How about you ask those with the most power what they are doing other than sitting around with their thumbs up their asses.

Maybe you should present a compelling argument of why they should help? They've got theirs.

The BEST way to get rid of the "T"

Sit at home. Don't vote. It doesn't affect me and therefore I don't give a shit.

"The Trump administration reportedly wants the government to revoke civil rights protections from transgender people: They want to define gender at birth — and force DNA tests to prove otherwise."

[quote]That's the thing. The Republicans are always fighting. They never stop fighting no matter what the outcome is.

Can we stop with these bullshit "Repugs are just better" arguments? They fucking cheat! The reason they are so arrogant all the time is that they know the fix is in. You're just playing into their hands by believing their self-invented hype. The difference is that Democrats fight with everything they have but stop at cheating. The Repugs don't stop at that line.

yeah. to quote my old softball coach "winners don't need to cheat to win. Only losers cheat"

R428: We're next, including YOU, dumbass!

Democratic Hopes for a Wave Election Diminish

I disagree, R429. Republicans are not better than Democrats BUT Republicans understand the advantage of power and maintaining power. They spend all of their time trying to get it and trying to maintain it. That's why they can't govern.

But, there's something VERY wrong when Republicans can so easily divide everyone or that the average citizen has no interest in the politics and governing of our nation. One cannot complain about healthcare if they don't get involved with the fight. It's the same with any issue and so there shouldn't be a need to list them.

What the Republicans depend upon, (and are winning on because they are right), are the stupidity and apathy of the average American citizen.

Yep. Conservatives understand the importance of political power and dominance more than progressives. So many progressives have a Peter Pan holier than thou attitude toward politics that leads to disengagement and lethargy

No. The Repugs cheat, cheat, cheat. They've been cheating for over 20 years at this point. Stop buying their bullshit. Everything they've now got was gotten by cheating. Get that through your damn heads.

They've stolen 3 presidential elections (00, 04 and 16). They cheat nonstop. Blatantly cheat.

[quote]They've stolen 3 presidential elections (00, 04 and 16). They cheat nonstop. Blatantly cheat.

Throw in a Supreme Court seat too. So, why do "the people" allow this?

[quote]Democratic Hopes for a Wave Election Diminish

Yeah, we've already discussed that. It's bullshit.

In fact, that discussion is still going on at the link. Consensus: the author of that op-ed is trying desperately to make it a horse race and ignoring all of the data that disagree with his hypothesis.

The media wants this to be a horse race. We have got to get profits out of the media.

[quote]No. The Repugs cheat, cheat, cheat. They've been cheating for over 20 years at this point.

And, where's the outrage?

Republicans Are Running on Health Care for Pre-Existing Conditions. It’s a Lie.--In repeatedly saying they will support policies they have demonstrated they don’t support, the party is degrading a central tenet of democracy.

R441, the outrage is everywhere. Have you been paying attention? The problem is that in our system, there is no recourse when the cheaters also make the rules. And, that's in a system that is already configured to help the party of the cheaters at the national level. Trump will always be linked to people like Hitler, Mussolini, the Mob, Putin, and other autocrats and dictators but it's going to be a long slog. It took world-wide wars to take down some of those and others are still around. Unfortunately, the courts may be out last, best chance and the cheaters are cheating and packing those, too.

Look. I'm tired of being an honorable loser. We don't need to lie cheat and steal, but we do need a better rapid response, we need to anticipate their moves better and we need better messaging. The Republicans will lie. But their lies would be obvious to the entire voting public if we were very clear and do our job making sure people not only know what we propose...but that we call them out as liars. We don't call them out enough, IMO.

R428 I wonder if the Trump administration wants to follow that up & declare LGB's heterosexual by default at birth & if he can do that to the T's, then what's to stop him from doing it to the rest of the community? It would be a roundabout way to ban same sex marriages again which he is still against in 2018. Kennedy wouldn't be on the SC to protect us. It's scary times for all of us. This topic needs/deserves its own thread.

Do we know if any of them escort? As a Democratic John, I'd pay extra for a "Republican Party Experience"

Uh, R444, because sex is determined solely by biology at conception. You are born and stay either male or female. End of story. Even if there was a single gene that determined sexuality, that gene would code for straight or gay or bi and that, just like sex, would be who you are. Immutable. Take your propagandist equivalencies elsewhere.

R443, I think we are already doing those things. However, since all the news and networks are owned by Repugs those things are, shockingly, silenced. Did you know the progressive caucus in the House does almost daily press conferences about all the issues? Ever seen one broadcast anywhere?

[quote]Did you know the progressive caucus in the House does almost daily press conferences about all the issues? Ever seen one broadcast anywhere?

NO! And, maybe that's why I'm not seeing the outrage. I know someone who was very high up in the journalism field and worked for a very renowned news media outlet. She left the profession because it wasn't about facts anymore. She told me that she and her colleagues would receive DIRECT orders from the very top to lay off the negative stuff about Trump and do not cover the social issues or what "the people" were really thinking about as much.

Bottom line; It's all a game.

If you cannot cognitively think for yourself you most certainly can't trust any news outlet. None of them.

R447 I'm not surprised your friend left the profession. But right now, the print media is driving this. Washington Post, New Yorker, Atlantic Magazine, and a host of other print media have been coming out with stuff to outrageous to ignore. The public appetite for anything related to this horror show is huge and the media is trying to keep up with it. Ratings are higher than ever. No one is being put to sleep so the journalists are covering it. I get Pelosi's daily press briefing on my Facebook feed, and I get a lot of stuff on my twitter feed. Social media is starting to put a lot of pressure on cable and network news. Once something is out here they can't suppress it as easily as they used to, which is why we are constantly plagued with fake news accounts and it's absolutely critical that the social media purveyors root out these fake accounts and expose them.

[quote] She told me that she and her colleagues would receive DIRECT orders from the very top to lay off the negative stuff about Trump and do not cover the social issues or what "the people" were really thinking about as much.

I was a film writer and I got the same thing. Seriously. Unless you're reading someone's reviews posted on their own website, there's a 99% chance their editor, whether it's at some really tiny little website or a large media outlet, has removed negative mentions of Trump even if the movie being reviewed very specifically portrays him (or his policies) in a negative light.

Some of the reviews and podcasts you're reading are secretly funded by rightwing nutjobs. I'm certain the same goes for the op-eds and hit pieces that have been coming out lately, too, and the tweets from otherwise neutral journalists talking about how "important" the latest "I'm a Republican and I'm telling you that Democrats are losers!" editorials are.

Nearly everyone is bought and paid for. If they aren't at first, they become so later, or they just get out of the business.

[quote]Some of the reviews and podcasts you're reading are secretly funded by rightwing nutjobs.

I agree with you 100%, R449. Now, many people just believe that this is nutso conspiracy thinking, but it really isn't. Many have no idea how pervasive the right-wing money is in our everyday lives. TONS of money is being poured into this. And, I mean TONS!!! What poll can you trust these days? FOX? Nate Silver? Who knows?

[quote]Nearly everyone is bought and paid for. If they aren't at first, they become so later, or they just get out of the business.

Very, very, true!

[quote][R441], the outrage is everywhere. Have you been paying attention?

On "Morning Joe" they are crying that all is lost for the Democrats. Now, what kind of talk is this? Then you have this;

Could Republicans hold the House in the upcoming midterms? Don't be ridiculous! The odds are awful. History is against them. The polls are all pointing the other way. There's a better chance of an adulterous, loud-mouthed reality TV star being elected president of the United States...

Oops.

In the bright light of day, Democrats appear to have a lock on taking control of the House of Representatives. But as they drift off to complacency, Donald Trump's victory—a win that virtually nobody saw coming—still haunts Democrats' dreams.

According to the data-crunchers at FiveThirtyEight.com, the odds that the GOP will hold onto the 218 seats they need for a majority in the House are just 1-in-7. A slim 15 percent. These same polling experts, by the way, gave Donald Trump just a 1-in-4 chance of winning the White House.

But when angry Democrats demanded an explanation from FiveThirtyEight's chief guru, Nate Silver, for getting the 2016 race so wrong, he insisted that he hadn't. "Things with a 1-in-4 chance of happening happen all the time," he noted. And he's right.

Democrats continue to underestimate how important culture is to elections. Trump and his cultists have successfully made the midterms about cultural issues via Kavaugh and the caravan.

[quote]Democrats continue to underestimate how important culture is to elections.

White Supremacy?

White male dominance?

Yes, those are major factors. As well as widespread resentment of perceived urban well-educated “elites” and their values.

[quote]As well as widespread resentment of perceived urban well-educated “elites” and their values.

You mean the "uppity" niggers?

Ugh! You're awful!!!!

Actually mostly uppity Caucasians

[quote]Trump and his cultists have successfully made the midterms about cultural issues via Kavaugh and the caravan.

Really? The Kavanaugh bump seems to have mostly disappeared and nobody's talking about it anymore. It remains to be seen whether the caravan causes anything to change. Given that Trump is talking about using the military and that his track record on immigration is dreadful, I suspect that only his base is impressed by his rhetoric.

Carl Bernstein on CNN yesterday said that Trump has talked about a disruption campaign if the midterm election results are close but have the Democrats taking control of the House or Senate.

"Trump is already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate," Bernstein said after being asked if Trump's challenge to fraudulent voters was a form of voter suppression. "That is really under discussion in the White House," he added.

That's not much of a surprise, R458. The Trump campaign also discussed these tactics in the 2016 election when it looked like they would lose.

Prepare for war

What I find interesting is that EVERYTHING that the Republicans accused and thought that President Obama was going to do (all of this stuff) NEVER happened, BUT it's all happening now under Trump!

Another thing that I noticed.... On the Log Cabin Republican's, (yeah, them), FaceBook page one can no longer post an unsolicited posting. All postings must be approved before they are published.

OH! From Caitlyn Jenner;

Caitlyn Jenner Verified account @Caitlyn_Jenner

There are 15,000 patriotic transgender Americans in the US military fighting for all of us. What happened to your promise to fight for them?

[quote]Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump--Thank you to the LGBT community! I will fight for you while Hillary brings in more people that will threaten your freedoms and beliefs.

The GOP enthusiasm is real. Get out and vote, Dems.

We've already discussed, R463. It's just more bullshit, undermined by its own argument:

[quote]Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.

In other words, R463, the old people who can't make it out of their houses mailed in their ballots, which they received a good two weeks to one month ago.

This may seem strange, but I feel the "great uncounted Republican moderates" in this election, will be white Republican voters who cannot support Trump for what he is doing to this country, who will be holding their noses and pulling a D lever for the first time.

My prediction.

If we really want to dismantle the dominance of the Extreme Right, we have to start locally the same way they did. We have to take over more state legislatures, state courts, and Governors, Secretaries of State and state attorneys general. It is the state legislatures that redraw the congressional district lines every ten years. It's the State Legislatures who make the rules about almost everything that stands as an impediment to exercising our democratic rights.

They make up the rules of how each state's elections are conducted, and decide whether to use paper ballots or electronic. They decide who to contract with, as far as the manufacturer of the voting machines, etc. They make laws governing the administration of healthcare, decisions about Medicaid, Public Education, mass incarceration and a host of other issues that affect us while the media keeps the focus on Washington. Whatever the outcome of this years midterms we have to keep organizing, Educating voters on issues, and reaching out to get people to the polls to vote.

Too many people don't even know who their state representatives are and a lot of us don't understand what the state government is responsible for. There's a Good Old Boys network doling out contracts to the same people over and over again ,and they call the shots. Get involved in your local Democratic Party organization and start paying attention.

The other thing is that the business of state government is woefully under reported. But it is very important. Find out when your state fiscal year starts, and what the cycle is to present budgets and hold hearings. Not saying you have to get into the weeds of it, but at least be aware. Advocacy groups come in handy. If the local Teacher's union, or advocates for healthcare initiatives have a cause they will know and understand the budget cycle.

The Republicans depend on low information voters. That is the way they get away with lying and scaring people. Years ago labor unions did a great job of educating their members on issues. The average auto worker knew a lot more about trade and tariffs that we do today. But the GOP has successfully screwed the unions, and even Michigan, the home base of the UAW is a Right to Work state now. We have to roll up our sleeves and get with it. Our basic rights and the quality of our lilves depends on it.

r466 As we saw in places like Alabama and PA18. Yes, moderate Repug women especially are a key.

Will moderate Republican women save the Republic?

R469, that would kind of be like them giving CPR to the person they just purposefully drowned, no?

Most of those moderate Repug women are Democrats. It's just not posh to say such things at church or at the country club. They must keep up appearances.

At what point does the media have to answer for their role in hyping up these races? They do it for the ratings and the stories but it's gotten to the point that it's shaping the elections. It's as much propaganda as the Russian crap.

Dems lower expectations for 'blue wave'

Democrats are tamping down expectations for a “blue wave” two weeks before the midterm elections as key races in the House tighten and winning back the Senate majority looks increasingly out of reach.

Asshole at R473, The Hill is a right-wing rag. Either inform yourself or, since you're probably just a troll, fuck off.

I stood in line behind an older white woman. She had to be close to 70. She looked like a MAGA. The line was quite long behind me, and I remarked that it looked like I got here just in time. She smiled and said "I hope we get more people to come out. This line should be longer." I gave her an indulgent half smile, but said nothing. Then she said, "We have to win this thing. I thought Hillary had won, that Tuesday night. I'll never forget that night. Worst night of my life. We have to show them how angry we are. " She was a Democrat. Revenge voting. I hope there are millions and millions more of her.

VOTE, and tell the Orange Blimp what you think of him.

R475 That's awesome. I can usually tell who is a deplorable and who isn't. This thread here may help with identifying them more easily...

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) now holds just a single-digit lead over her GOP challenger in a poll released Thursday that just last month showed her ahead by more than 20 points.

An EPIC-MRA survey commissioned by the Detroit Free Press found that Stabenow now leads John James (R), an Army veteran and first-time political candidate, by 7 points.

Another poll taken over roughly the same time period has her at +16. I'm not too worried about Stabenow.

R478, EPIC-MRA usually has a Republican lean in its polling. I've noticed it over the past decade going back to when Obama was running in Michigan.

Every other poll I've seen shows Stabenow with double digits and the forecasts for her show her with an almost guaranteed chance of winning.

True

STAY FOCUSED!!!

Enthusiasm gap? Small Jacksonville crowd for Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis

On Thursday afternoon, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence headlined a Jacksonville rally for Ron DeSantis.

In what clearly was the Republican attempt to counter the appearance of former veep Joe Biden for the Democrats earlier this week, Pence’s arrival was another signal of how nationalized the race between DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum is.

However, Duval Republicans seem to have been otherwise occupied, just a day after a brutal, high-profile debate between the candidates.

In terms of draw, attendance was not as strong as organizers might have hoped, with a couple hundred people on hand being a smaller draw than the Democratic “Winning Ticket” rally. Some Republicans on hand mentioned the security screening being so time-consuming, with Secret Service involved, that many who showed up could not get in.

Many who did get in were party activists and politicians.

Nonetheless, Pence, DeSantis, and Kellyanne Conway, political advisor to President Donald Trump, were all on hand to press the case.

(more)

R482, DeSantis is trailing Gillum in the current Florida poll being conducted by NYT/Siena.

(And Scott is trailing Nelson).

[quote][R482], DeSantis is trailing Gillum in the current Florida poll being conducted by NYT/Siena. (And Scott is trailing Nelson).

Okay... BUT, stay focused!

We have a little less that two weeks. A lot can happen. The gap between Nelson and Scott is not big enough. The gap between Gillum and De Santis is not big enough. Keep working. Keep working in Georgia, and for McCaskill in Missouri, for the Dems in Wisconsin, for Heidi Heitkamp and for the Dems in Arizona and Nevada. I thiink Beto is a long shot but keep working in Texas.

[quote]I thiink Beto is a long shot but keep working in Texas.

It's a long shot but I feel really good about Beto. I think he's going to pull it off.

who wants to see clay faced pence anyway?

He's about exciting as dried paste.

[quote]The gap between Nelson and Scott is not big enough. The gap between Gillum and De Santis is not big enough.

The latest NYT/Siena poll shows Nelson & Gillum both doing pretty well against their Republican challengers.

That's about as big a gap as you're likely to see in the Florida races.

If you want to throw in some fuck you money, donate to Williams in the Montana house race. New poll today shows him ahead of prick Gianforte by 1. Gianforte was the shitstain who body slammed the reporter and win Trump's erection.

Flush him. While we need to flush Repukes everywhere, sending those like Gianforte packing is especially important.

An observation on the generic ballot polling by Nate Silver:

[quote]In general the highest-quality polls seem to show a bigger generic ballot lead for Dems (averaging maybe 9 or 10 points) than the medium quality stuff (averaging maybe 6 or 8).

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has a six-point edge over Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) in his bid for a second term in the Senate, according to a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released Friday.

Cruz gets the support of 51 percent of likely Texas voters, while

45 percent support O’Rourke,

two percent back Libertarian candidate Neal Dikeman and

two percent said they would support another candidate.

An averaging of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, which does not yet include Friday’s UT–TT poll, has Cruz up 7 points.

Yeah, R491. But, maybe I'm living in la-la-land, but Beto is still pulling in TONS of money (to this very second), and while Cruz is begging people to come to his rallys, Beto's rallys are standing room only! SOMETHING is wrong with this picture!

There are two possibilities (plus variations), r492. The first is something that people have said over and over again: rallies and yard signs don't necessarily mean votes. There are a shitload of people who will never attend a rally but who will vote. Beto can win the battle of yard signs and rally attendance and still lose the election by several percentage points.

The second possibility is that the polls are underestimating Beto's support in Texas just as they underestimated Trump's support in a few key states in 2016. In that scenario, that extra few percentage points might be enough for Beto to squeak through in a nailbiter. Or get closer than the polls would indicate but still lose.

The trouble is that we may not know which of these scenarios is the case until the day of the election.

"New NPR/PBS/Marist poll has Ds up 10 on generic ballot. This was the poll, a few weeks ago, that sparked the “Kavanaugh backlash/enthusiasm gap” panic among Ds. A few weeks is a long time."

And for all of those hand-wringing concern trolls who insisted that Democrats were running on "Trump, Trump, Trump!!!" (which wasn't true), here's what the poll has to say:

[quote]Roughly two-thirds of voters say President Trump is a factor (either major or minor) in their vote in this year's midterms, far more than said so in 2014 about then-President Barack Obama

[quote]Among women, though, it's even more acute — 51 percent of women overall said Trump will be a "major" factor in their vote in two weeks; 54 percent of suburban women said the same. Among those who said Trump is a "major factor," 64 percent said they were more likely to vote Democratic in November and 32 percent said they were more likely to vote Republican.

[quote]"This is definitively a national election — with a referendum on Trump," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

[quote]What's more, 47 percent of voters said their opinion of Trump makes them more likely to vote for a Democrat for Congress, while 34 percent said their opinion of Trump makes them more likely to vote for a Republican.

Among Hispanic registered voters, the Democratic Party holds a 62%-27% advantage in leaned party identification -- almost identical to where things stood prior to 2016

My guess is even Hispanics that are religious still know better than to vote for a Republican. I think most of the Republicans are Cubans and some religious ones, not most.

Besides, if there is a blue wave it will be led by black women. They are our saviors if we do indeed get saved.

I don’t believe for one second that Trump won the election. Hundreds of thousands of democrats showed up at the polls to find they’d been tossed off the voter rolls. And they had jobs — jobs they had to go to because Election Day is not a national holiday in the US. Fucking COLUMBUS DAY is a federal holiday & Election Day isn’t . Think of all the people who were turned away from polls in the morning and then had to go to work....

And, if a state requires photo ID for voters, then that state should pay for the photo ID to else it’s a litmus test