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For the 2018 Democrats to flip the U.S. House, here is a better understanding of the numbers…

Another thread exists, from a report expressing concern, about the 2018 Democrats and whether they win over a new majority for the U.S. House.

I predict they will.

It helps to understand, though, that it helps to keep one informed if one refers to the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, and that there is a target margin for the 2018 Democrats.

* * * * *

2016 U.S. House: Republican 49.11% | Democratic 48.03% (Margin: Republican +1.08)

The 2016-to-2018 U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, will shift in the direction of the Democrats.

In the midterm elections of 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010—the last midterm election cycles in which the U.S. House flipped to the party opposite that of an incumbent U.S. President—saw an average of about +3.50 seats gained with each percentage point that was nationally shifted in the direction of the the minority party which won over a new majority. An example: In 2010, the Republicans, who flipped +63 seats, went into that midterm election with their 2008 loss of –10.60 (Republicans 42.62% | Democrats 53.22%), and then they won over the 2010 U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House with a margin of +6.73. So, the 2008-to-2010 national shift, for U.S. House, was +17.33 percentage points in the direction of the Republicans. They won a net gain of 63 seats. So, 63, divided by 17.33, equaled +3.66 seats gained with each nationally shifted percentage point.

The 2018 Democrats, having lost the 2016 U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House by –1.08, would win a net gain of +3 or +4 seats just by evening up the popular vote with a margin of +0.00 or winning with the minimum +0.01. The 2018 Democrats need a national shift in their direction of about +7 points, and to win the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House by a margin (whole number estimate) of +6 percentage points, in order to flip the U.S. House.

SCENARIO:

For those polls saying the 2018 Democrats will winning the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House by +7:

(+1.08) + 7 = 8.08 national shift | 3.50 x 8.08 = +28 seats gained

Commonly mentioned is a margin of +8:

(1.08) + 8 = 9.08 | 3.50 x 9.08 = +31 seats gained

For those polls which have reported as much as +14 in percentage points margin:

(+1.08) + 14 = 15.08 | 3.50 x 15.08 = +52 seats gained

* * * * *

SUMMARY:

The 2018 Democrats need a net gain of +23 to win over the U.S. House.

My guess, should they prevail, is more in line with a 2016-to-2018 shift of about 10 points in order to win by +9.

(1.08) + 9 = 10.08 | 3.50 x 10.08 = +35 seats gained.

by Anonymousreply 6October 12, 2018 12:26 AM

I predict the Democrats will lose more seats in the House and Senate, and continue to lose seats in state legislatures and governors mansions.

Why? Because the ruling class, i.e. wealthy white people and their cohorts in stupidity, the Deplorables, feel extremely threatened. They are fighting for their privileged lives and will do anything to maintain the status quo.

Democrats don't feel threatened enough to do anything except sit on their hands and bitch about how awful other Democrats are. And quite frankly, the unionized labor forces of MI, IL, WI, PA and industrialized states have been lost to Trump and the Republicans, thanks to the new NAFTA. Trump was in deep blue Philly on Tuesday and union officials were falling over themselves trying to get to him. The only union people on the sides of Democrats these days are state/local/municipal employee unions.

by Anonymousreply 1October 4, 2018 8:31 PM

If the 2018 Democrats end up losing more seats in the U.S. House, the direction of the 2016-to-2018 U.S. Popular Vote would be in the direction of the Republicans. No poll report that is happening.

by Anonymousreply 2October 4, 2018 9:22 PM

Thank you, OP.

I agree that Democrats need to get the hell out there and vote, R1, but your pessimism isn’t really rooted in reality.

by Anonymousreply 3October 11, 2018 11:12 PM

OP I skimmed your flurry of stats.

The *real* story is not the margin — it’s the purging.

As I sit here typing, tens of thousands of voters, mainly POC, are being fucking PURGED from the voting rolls. 55,000 in GA alone.

Where the FUCK are the Dems on this fucking bullshit??????

by Anonymousreply 4October 11, 2018 11:17 PM

[quote]Where the FUCK are the Dems on this fucking bullshit??????

The reason why we all know about is because they are making noise. When you aren't the party in power, making noise is sometimes your only option.

by Anonymousreply 5October 11, 2018 11:18 PM

[quote]As I sit here typing, tens of thousands of voters, mainly POC, are being fucking PURGED from the voting rolls. 55,000 in GA alone.

That is terrible.

But, [italic]voter purges[/italic] is not the topic of this thread.

by Anonymousreply 6October 12, 2018 12:26 AM
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