Will the Senate flip?

I’m not optimistic. But it would be nice if Ted Cruz loses.

Does anyone else think he uses makeup on a regular basis, and doesa poor job of it?

Who freaking knows? I'd settle for the House.

Florida, Texas, Missouri, Tennessee. With this economy It's gonna be hard. But with Trump guiding Republicans now I wouldn't discount the possibility. Imagine all the investigations if Democrats take both houses! Love it!

If Dems win the Senate, I will donate $100 to somebody promising impeachment.

I WANT THE SENATE TOO!!!

Where's Mr. Poll Troll?

I think all the polls are underestimating Democratic turnout because they are mostly polling 'likely voters' and the Dems that have been pushing all the more progressive candidates and all the women, etc. into these races are not the usual 'likely voters'.

I don't think we'll lose ground in the Senate and, if I'm right about the underestimation, I think we will take back the Senate. I think there's a reason McConnell needs to get this Kavanaugh vote done soon. He's not sure he's going to be in charge come January.

I need some good news because I am Trump Deranged.

The odds are still against it but it's definitely a possibility. A year ago, nobody took that possibility seriously. Hell, even a month ago, not very many people took that possibility seriously.

The betting markets give Democrats about a 25% chance. I think that's about right, personally.

There is a post here about a new poll in Tenn that shows the Dem is ahead! That would be an unexpected pick up. Now Arizona and/or Texas would seal the deal.

[quote]I need some good news because I am Trump Deranged.

It's not just Democrats buying.... Everyone wants to learn how crazy Trump really is;

Bob Woodward's 'Fear' is the fastest selling book since 'Go Set a Watchman'

Almost every week, there's a new book about the Trump White House. But Bob Woodward's book is in a category of its own. "Fear" came out on Tuesday. And it is already one of the top selling books of the year -- not just on the politics shelf of the bookstore, but in the entire store.

On Wednesday, Barnes & Noble said "Fear" has had the "fastest sales for an adult title since Harper Lee's 'Go Set a Watchman' was released in July 2015."

The bookseller called the pace of sales "phenomenal" and "amazing."

Also on Wednesday, Woodward's publisher Simon & Schuster announced that more than 750,000 copies of "Fear" have been sold as of Tuesday, the first day it went on sale. The staggering figure includes pre-orders, first day sales of the print copy, ebooks and audiobooks, according to the company. President Jonathan Karp called it a "cultural phenomenon."

I think the Dems could easily take the Senate if everyone got to vote. Republicans will do anything, and I mean ANYTHING to keep the Dems from winning it.

I like our chances in the red states especially if the Republican is struggling against the Democrat even if the Democrat is the incumbent.

MissouritHawley (R) +0.5 TennesseetBredesen (D) +0.3 FloridatScott (R) +1.7 MontanatTester (D) +5.5 North DakotatCramer (R) +1.6Trending Up NevadatRosen (D) +1.3Trending Up ArizonatMcSally (R) +0.3Trending Up TexastCruz (R) +3.2 West VirginiatManchin (D) +8.4 WisconsintBaldwin (D) +8.0 MinnesotatSmith (D) +8.4 New JerseytMenendez (D) +8.3

"Just how uphill a task is that for Democrats? We currently forecast Democrats to win the popular vote for the U.S. House by 8 to 9 percentage points (similar to their advantage on the generic congressional ballot) — a margin that by almost any definition would qualify as a “wave election.” As a point of comparison, Republicans won the House popular vote by 7 percentage points in 1994 and in 2010, and Democrats won it by 8 points in 2006, all of which are usually considered wave years. But our model thinks that even an 8- or 9-point advantage would probably not be enough for Democrats to win the Senate. Instead, they would need around an 11-point advantage in the House popular vote before becoming favorites to claim the Senate, our model estimates."

WE MUST NOT LOSE OUR FOCUS!!! But....

‘Shipwreck’: GOP grows fearful about losing Senate as candidates struggle, Trump support tumbles

Republicans have grown increasingly worried about losing control of the Senate, as President Trump’s approval rating tumbles and Democrats gain steam in key battleground races.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday sounded some of the most doubtful notes of Trump’s presidency that Republicans will keep the upper chamber of Congress, telling reporters, “I hope when the smoke clears, we’ll still have a majority.”

His comments came as Republican strategists and officials fretted over a fresh round of private polling on the Senate races, while public polls registered further erosion in Americans’ approval of Trump. “Shipwreck” was how one leading strategist described the situation, adding an expletive to underscore the severity of the party’s problems.

One of the most unexpected fights is in reliably GOP Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz is trying to fend off Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke. Republicans are so fearful about losing the seat that they are diverting resources to Texas, a sore point in the White House after the animosity between Cruz and Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary.

Beyond Texas, Sen. Joe Donnelly, once seen as perhaps the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, has opened up a slight edge over Republican businessman Mike Braun in Indiana, while hopes for picking off Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) in a state Trump won by 43 percentage points have faded along with GOP confidence in state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, the Republican nominee.

The developments signaled the most serious peril yet for Republicans’ 51-49 majority. Losing the Senate was once an unthinkable prospect as the GOP looked to gain seats in the midterms, and with the party’s grip on the House in serious jeopardy, the chamber had been seen as the last line of defense.

At the start of Trump’s tenure, some Republicans envisioned enough wins to secure a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats, confident they could oust many of the 10 Democrats running in states Trump won in 2016. Even a few weeks ago, Republicans were talking more assuredly about flipping seats.

But less than two months till the Nov. 6 election, Republicans barely mention Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — states Trump won — as opportunities to knock out a Democrat, while McConnell reiterated that nine seats, plus Texas, were at stake.

“Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and Florida. All of them too close to call, and every one of them like a knife fight in an alley; I mean, just a brawl in every one of those places,” McConnell told reporters in Louisville.

Republicans could still emerge with an increase in their numbers if GOP candidates eventually prevail in many of these close races, with Democrats seriously concerned about Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick Scott is running about even against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.

A Washington Post-ABC News national poll conducted in late August found just 38 percent of voters approved of the job that Trump was doing, compared with 60 percent who disapproved. His approval rating in April was 44 percent.

These difficulties have come into sharp focus in Texas, where Cruz is fighting for political survival against O’Rourke, a rising liberal star who is raising record-setting sums of cash and attracting large crowds across a ruby-red state. At the end of June, O’Rourke had close to $14 million cash on hand to Cruz’s $9 million, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

The tough realities of Texas have prompted an unexpected alliance between Cruz and the Republicans he spent years waging a vendetta against as a senator and as a candidate for president — including Trump and McConnell.

it would be great but i had a bad feeling about it.

The sudden cooperation underscores how much the GOP fears losing Texas. The shock waves are being felt well beyond the state, as its several expensive media markets could force the party to spend money there that it will have to subtract from GOP hopefuls in other battlegrounds.

“Other campaigns are going to be shorted due to the lackluster nature of the campaign,” said one White House official, speaking of the Cruz operation.

McConnell recently assured Cruz in a private conversation that resources would be there for him, according to people familiar with the talk. Trump is planning to campaign for Cruz in Texas next month.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC helmed by a former top McConnell aide, has recently taken a close look at Texas, conducting polling and summarizing its findings in a memo, according to Chris Pack, a spokesman for the group.

The organization also announced a seven-figure advertising campaign in five other states on Tuesday. The ads mostly target Democratic candidates.

A Cruz-McConnell partnership would have been unimaginable when Cruz called McConnell a liar on the Senate floor in July 2015 over strategy on legislation. A Cruz-Trump alliance would have seemed equally implausible after Cruz labeled Trump a “pathological liar” and declined to endorse him at the Republican National Convention.

Beyond Trump and McConnell, Cruz angered other Republicans with his unsuccessful effort to strip funds from the Affordable Care Act in 2013, which forced a 16-day partial government shutdown, and his support for outside groups that financed primary challengers to GOP senators.

“They are working together for political expediency,” said Rick Tyler, a former Cruz spokesman. “These people don’t like each other.”

Cruz spoke about his plight at a luncheon for Republican senators earlier this summer, according to people familiar with his remarks. One GOP senator said Cruz sought to convince them that he was facing a“real race,” citing polls and noting that O’Rourke was amassing cash.

Like others interviewed for this story, the senator spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

In Texas on Tuesday, Cruz told reporters he was eager to debate O’Rourke five times. “Typically, sitting officeholders don’t suggest that many debates. They don’t want to do any debates. But the reason I proposed that is, I think we owe it to the voters of Texas.”

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), whom Cruz declined to endorse in his 2014 primary, is hosting a fundraiser for Cruz in Washington next month.

Public polls have shown Cruz leading O’Rourke by single digits. David McIntosh, the president of the Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has long championed Cruz, said donors he has spoken with have been caught off-guard by the tightness of the contest.

“I think, particularly in Texas, it’s like: ‘Oh yeah, I didn’t think it would be a big race. Yes, we need to win it. I’ll help you do that.’ And the same around the country,” McIntosh said.

Speaking to reporters in Louisville on Tuesday, McConnell called the race “competitive” but said he expected Cruz to prevail. One advantage for any Republican in the state is the ability of voters to simply cast a straight-party-ticket ballot.

Despite Trump’s poll numbers, GOP strategists still consider the president their most effective weapon in the fight to keep control of the Senate. They say his trips to red states with marquee contests, like Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana, have provided boosts for their candidates.

The Senate Leadership Fund’s new Indiana ad begins with footage of Trump praising Braun and Braun pledging to fight for the president.

Whether the bursts of momentum will last is another question party leaders are grappling with as they eye the final two months before the November elections. A steady stream of explosive stories about dissent within Trump’s administration and special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation hover over the fall stretch.

There is little room for margin of error if they we want to retake the House. All the red state Dems need to win and we need to pick of Heller in Nevada, have Sinema win the open AZ. That gives Dems an even 50-50 margin. To win the Senate outright, they need to pick off Cruz in Texas or have Bredesen win in Tenn. Not impossible but an uphill climb.

If we want to retake the Senate*****

The House almost assuredly will swing to the Democrats for the first time since 2010.

Last part;

Republican strategists are closely watching suburban areas, where they fear that anger with Trump could spark a backlash against GOP candidates. The suburbs loom larger over the battle for the House, with many rural states set to decide Senate contests. But Senate strategists are still mindful of the challenges they may pose.

One bright spot for the GOP has been the nomination of Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Republican leaders are confident they will confirm him this month, giving Trump and his party a landmark achievement just before voting begins.

Until then, they will have to weather a political storm that has increasingly stoked private GOP comparisons to 2006, a banner election year for the Democrats. Amid that perceived danger, every competitive Senate race is becoming more critical.

Scott Clement and Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.

I'd settle for having all of our incumbents winning this year and going for the the Senate in 2020.

I hate to say it but a Democratic congress and Trump as president gives him a way to brush off his failures on Democrats when he runs for re-election in 2 years.

His MAGA agenda is derailed next January anyway with a Democratic House. He effectively becomes a lame duck president just like Obama did in 2010 when Republicans swept the House. 2018 appears to be basically 2010 in reverse.

I want the Senate because I care about the judiciary. The young right wingers they're appointing will be there for LIFE.

I guess the question becomes how much more Trump goes out of the presidential norm that his rating drags down his party's reputation. When the Supreme gets confirmed there will be goodwill appreciated onto him. Trump understands the game. He will bunker down (he'll cut down on the tweeting) the last three weeks of this election cycle. He did it with Hillary, and let hubris sink in on our side.

It doesn’t help that his campaign song is Tubular Bells

Cruz looks almost attractively Mephistophelean there.

Poll please.

It's about stopping the Judges!!!

Donate, donate, donate to Donnelly, Heitkamp, Sinema, Nelson, and McCaskill. Those five races will be our firewall states.

My answer is ---- whatever will get liberals and moderates to vote, too many people take the attitude of the Democrat doesn't stand a chance, so why bother to vote, or the Democrat will win whether I vote or not so why bother to vote, this is how we got Trump.

Even if the top person on the ballot is unopposed, you need to vote, there are people down ballot who need your vote, some of the people down ballot will be the congressperson, Governor, Senator, or even the President of the future, but not as likely if they don't win that first office they run for.

GO VOTE

Mitch McConnell is scared. I like a scared Mitch McConnell.

I'm not sure where I read or watched it a couple of days ago but it said that in wave years like this one, the wave party never loses Senate their Senate seats. They always hold the ones they have and gain. If we hold our seats, we only need to gain two to take control, right?

If the blue wave magically doesn't happen, let's see if anyone calls out the cheating and interference this time around instead of just shrugging their shoulders in confusion.

[quote] If Dems win the Senate, I will donate $100 to somebody promising impeachment.

Most politicians will sell their soul to the devil but you can't get most politicians to do anything for $100.

How you can tell McConnell is scared...

I hate Mitch McConnell with the heat of ten thousand suns.

Polls look good, but they looked good in 2016, too. I’m hoping, but ready for disappointment. I don’t trust my fellow citizens and I don’t trust in the integrity of our elections either.

It is possible but I will wait until closer to Nov to really assess this. Voter anger and Dem energy is not accurately represented. We need people to vote no matter if the polls say we will win by 50 points! Vote vote vote vote vote!

The GOP has been trying hard for the past few months to make sure the midterms are as hackable as possible. That combined with the usual closing polls in minority heavy places, making it difficult to register to vote, voter roll purgings, etc will make it difficult to win.

[quote]If we hold our seats, we only need to gain two to take control, right?

The problem is this is a terrible year for democrats. Most of the seats open are democrats, so we have to defend ALL of those in addition to some gains.

r37 We do but this is the best year to have this kind of scenario. They can do it. The conditions are there.

I am starting to believe that, r38. And nobody should ever get complacent, but mixed with fear there should be some hope, lately. Everyone sane hates the oaf in the oval, and a hell of a lot of people hate Ted Cruz and many other Republican candidates. This actually could happen.

Democrats, do not freaking talk about DACA or illegal immigration! Don't fuck this up. The road to legislative victory lies in centrism, not progressiveness. 4 wins for progressives in this primary cycle is hardly a move towards to the left. This is a referendum on Trump's sanity (or lack thereof).

Democrats REALLY need to be talking about and pushing HEALTHCARE and EDUCATION

and total corruption and total, shameless, absolute slavishness to Wall Street and the rich. Even Tea Baggers pretend to hate that shit. Call them out on it. Make them defend slavish devotion to the rich if that is what they want to vote for.

My guess (light shades are pickups)…

Smart progressiveness is smart. There are many progressive issues most voters are squarely in the Dems corner. They need to talk smart on immigration, not hide their record because they have nothing to be ashamed of. Cheap Labor Conservatives lured immigrants here for their cheap labor and to bust unions. Good job. Now that their offspring skew liberal, you want them out. But the Cubans who can come over willy nilly? No problem. Why? They skew conservative. THAT is how the Dems need to frame the immigration issue.

Focus on healthcare. Currently, 20 states are suing to end ACA. The Republican politicians behind this suit want to go back to the days when pregnancy or acne was a pre-existing condition. People need to know what they stand to lose by keeping these evil people in office.

R44 Do not talk about immigration at all. There's nothing to gain with that conversation. We are in the hunt for power. You know who votes? Middle class white people in FL (and other retirement communities) and old black ladies. Narrow the message to those two groups and we may win this thing.

health care is actually one of the things that does seem to be working, after all the bitching and moaning about Obamacare. I think it will save Joe Manchin, one of the biggest bitchers, and bitches. Deep down, most people love Obamacare a hell of a lot more than they love tax cuts for the rich.

I would sell my dead mother into slavery is Texas went Democrat.

TX is a long shot but doable. People HATE Cruz here.

[quote]TX is a long shot but doable. People HATE Cruz here.

So, where are ALL of these Mexicans, (that we are being overrun by according to Republicans) that can vote????

They don't vote. That is changing.

R50 Uhm, context pendejo. Wth are u talking about?

[quote]They don't vote. That is changing.

Like... can it change today? Do they see, hear, and feel, what Republicans are doing to them? GEEZ!

That's a very bullish map, R43. The only competitive seat you see Dems losing is Texas. From your lips!

Can we get all those 3 million illegals that voted for Hillary to vote for Beto? I’m already voting in 6 states, so I think I’m maxed-out.

R55 Dont be a hack u twat!

U want Mexicans to vote? History has already provided a way to get them out and vote. See Pete Wilson in CA 1990's

shouldn't R55 be peeing on some millionaire in a Moscow hotel room?

R54,

It’s not so much losing. It’s a matter if succeeding—or not succeeding—in flipping. Ted Cruz could get unseated by Beto O’Rourke. The bellwether county is Tarrant (Fort Worth). Whoever wins there…wins Texas. So, I just figured Cruz, who won in 2012 by +1.2 million votes and +15.84 percentage points, may eke it out by +5 or less. Then again, I am not saying O’Rourke cannot unseat Cruz. I wanted to make sure not to leave any states as tossups, because I wanted to color them all to show what I envision will happen (as of 09.12.2018).

Recent polls show that Tenn. is moving away from Dems and Republicans are consolidating behind McSally after a contentious primary cycle. I hope they hold for Dems but it's not looking promising.

Looking at the map, it would seem to be nearly impossible for a Senate flip for Dems. If they do it or even come close, that would be a near death-knell for the GOP

R59 This Fox News poll? Things are happening on the ground that has folks upset. There's a (blue) hurricane-a-comin'!

R59,

In 2012 Mitt Romney carried Arizona by +9.03 while Jeff Flake won by only +3.02 (over Richard Carmona).

Arizona #02 will be a 2018 Democratic pickup.

Governorship—with Republican incumbent Doug Ducey vs. Democratic nominee David Garcia—has a poll trending Democratic.

In the U.S. Senate race, only recently—meaning, after the primaries—did Republican Martha McSally poll ahead of Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. I think McSally got a bounce. And some of the polls covered Labor Day and/or Labor Day weekend.

I am thinking not only the U.S. House and U.S. Senate will flip majorities to the Democrats…so too the nation’s governorships. Arizona can deliver on all three counts.

[quote]Looking at the map, it would seem to be nearly impossible for a Senate flip for Dems.

Well, I'm not giving up hope. Besides Trump doing something stupid himself--he can't help it, the Woodward book will kill him more. Then you have the Omarosa gal that will drop a recording of something.

R60,

The last three times the U.S. Senate swithed party control, opposite the U.S. president’s party, in a midterm election (which is when that happens), no party-held seats were lost (1994 Republicans, 2006 Democrats, and 2014 Republicans). Also: The popular vote for U.S. Senate. The Rs won eight (of 33) seats scheduled in 2012. Nearly all are underperforming here in 2018. And two of them—Texas and Tennessee—were won by a combined +2 million votes. In other words: If the Rs will hold the Senate, they have to hold both states. But I also say this: If the Rs will hold the Senate, why are struggling to hold up those +2 million votes?

Trump does concentrate the mind. We are used to talking about the stubborn affection of his shrinking base, but there is a deeply felt hatred from the other side that may flood a lot of the usual certainties away. Let us hope.

What do you think the chances are that Mueller personally feels that Trump is a clear and present danger to Constitutional government and decides that he’ll unveil inditements piecemeal over the next 8 weeks in an attempt to poison Trump and Republican‘s support among those that aren’t brainwashed morons?

I’m so ashamed that my nephew and his parents are among Trump’s base.

Dems are poised to pick up a lot of state legislative seats, statewide offices and governorships as well. Michigan, New Mexico, Illinois and a few others are ripe for flips.

and they have been flipping all over the place in the special elections, R67. People fucking hate Donald Trump. Fucking hate him. This might actually matter in November.

There is going to be MASSIVE negative media agInst Democrats over the next six weeks - from Koch funded organizations - thanks citizens united - many races will be closer than usual but, I fear, just a bit short for dems - hope I’m wrong.

It won’t stop the majority pickups for the Democrats.

Kansas, by the way, is in position to very possibly flip the governorship from Republican to Democratic.

[Quote]Michigan, New Mexico, Illinois

R67—those three will see their governorships flip Democratic.

The Ds come in with 16. They need +10. Illinois will be their first pickup. It is followed by New Mexico, Maine, and Michigan with likelihood. That gets the Ds to 20. To reach 26: Nevada, Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia (tipping point state), Arizona, and if they can get to 28, Kansas.

I hereby submit that we name R43/R71 'Numbers Guru' so he or she can now join the ranks of our beloved 'Poll Troll' and be given the full right to claim that name as his/her signature in all relevant posts for this election season.

Can I get a second on the motion?

Absolutely true, r69. That's why we're already seeing positive media coverage of Susan "Trump's actually good for us" Sarandon, Michael "I need Trump in office so I can pay my mortgage" Moore, and Chris Hayes featuring non-voters on his show so they can spout all their fantastic reasons to sit out elections.

It's also why so many outlets have been referring to Kavanaugh as being a "landmark win" and other such phrases.

The media is going to put a lot of work into making everything seem normal and good (because secure people will decide there's no reason to vote) and downplaying the mistakes Trump will make. The media rakes in the cash when Trump is president, they don't want to lose that.

The Republicans will be delighted at all this talk of the Senate flipping. It’s just the discussion they need to motivate their voters and return democrats to their usual midterm apathy.

DO NOT FALL FOR IT!!

The idea of, “Sshhh, don’t let the Repubs know - it will motivate them to vote” is just silly. We all have access to the same info and Dems are motivated too. Nobody is going to sneak into Congress b/c no one is paying attention. Not this year anyway.

HA! Well, this is making my morning! "Morning Joe" is talking about Marsha Blackburn going down in flames!

I can’t wait to see Marsha Cunt Blackburn go down. Also that cunt McSalley from Arizona.

A stock market panic might do it. It often happens in the fall.

Their desperation will drive the Republicans to ever more overt, even brutal, measures of voter suppression, which in turn will clarify the stakes for voters not already paying attention and make them more favorable toward the Democrats.

We shall see in November. If I learned anything from 2016, is to not let polls get my hopes up. Fingers crossed..

I hope it does. Fuck Mitch Mc Connell.

[quote]Kansas, by the way, is in position to very possibly flip the governorship from Republican to Democratic.

It wasn't that long ago that Kansas had Sebelius, elected to two terms. Parkinson finished her second term when she went to the Obama admin. It's been back-and-forth Dems and Reps since the 1950s, so hopefully that'll play out again this year and Kobach will be stopped.

[quote]Well, I'm not giving up hope. Besides Trump doing something stupid himself--he can't help it, the Woodward book will kill him more. Then you have the Omarosa gal that will drop a recording of something.

Told you....

Donald J. Trump ‏✔️ @realDonaldTrump 5 minutes ago

3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000...

.....This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!

Reminds me of 2006. The Senate was a long shot but possible - Jim Webb of VA unexpectedly emerged as seat 51 and through a lot of push unseated George Allen and won back the Senate in similar circumstances.

I proudly worked the ground for Webb the last few days and we won by a Hair. Webb was a prick but he won us back the Senate. It could happen again this year but people have to work as hard as we did back then - the campaign took nothing for granted and had people on the ground everywhere getting as many Ds to the polls as possible and it worked.

Yes, it’s possible. But we’ll have to go all out.

Possibly. This eldergay remembers the late 50's, 60's, and 70's when the question was will the Senate be 2-1 Democratic.? This was because the South was still fighting the Civil War and only you had the town eccentric and the town Republican. Now the Democrats are trying to hold on to Senate seats in Republican leaning states. If some B movie actor had gone the Eddie Bracken route and done dinner theaters instead of politics this would never have happened.

[Quote]The Republicans will be delighted at all this talk of the Senate flipping. It’s just the discussion they need to motivate their voters and return democrats to their usual midterm apathy. | DO NOT FALL FOR IT!!

R74—It is possible the Rs hold onto the U.S. Senate. But, this is not based on some arrogant assumption. I mentioned Texas and Tennessee were in the Republicans’ 2012 column by a combined +2 million votes, and they’re struggling to hold them. Arizona, carried by Jeff Flake by only +3 points, and Nevada, carried by Dean Heller by only +1.16 percentage points, are not likely to hold in a midterm election wave—in which the Republicans have the presidency—and it is going in the direction of the Democrats. (Heller has something in common, from 2012, with Barack Obama: They both carried Washoe County, with its county seat Reno. That county flipped Democratic in 2008 for the first time since 1964. Hillary Clinton, in 2016 while the Democrats lost the presidency, carried the county. I suspect Washoe County will flip Democratic for Heller’s challenger Jacky Rosen—and that will flip the Nevada U.S. Senate seat Democratic.)

This is not historical unique. Think of the 17th Amendment. The 1910s. After that, think of all U.S. presidents elected to more than one term. Only one of them never saw his party lose either house of Congress. That was Franklin Roosevelt. And, yet, FDR’s Democratic Party still lost staggering numbers of House seats in 1938 and lost a good amount in 1942. Richard Nixon never saw his Republican Party hold majority in either house of Congress at any point during his presidency.

The presidents, elected to more than one term, and from 1914 to 2014, who lost same-party majorities: Woodrow Wilson, both houses, 1918; Dwight Eisenhower, both houses, 1954; Ronald Reagan, the Senate (never had the House), 1986; Bill Clinton, both houses, 1994; George W. Bush, both houses, 2006; Barack Obama, the House, in 2010, and the Senate, 2014. Bush’s Republican Party lost the Senate, in mid-2001 to the end of 2002, when Vermont’s Jim Jeffords switched from Republican to independent and caucused with the Democrats.

From 1914 to 2014, the White House minority party won overall seat gains in only three midterm elections—1934, 1998, and 2002. That means, from the other 23 midterm election cycles, the White House opposition party won the overall seat gains. That will happen here in 2018.

Good timing for Woodward's book, Omarosa (sp) telling all, and the New York Times op ed.. close to November. Love it!

Rewrite:

[Quote]From 1914 to 2014, the White House [Bold]minority[/Bold] party won overall seat gains in only three midterm elections—1934, 1998, and 2002. That means, from the other 23 midterm election cycles, the White House opposition party won the overall seat gains. That will happen here in 2018.

It should read:

From 1914 to 2014, the White House party won overall seat gains in only three midterm elections—1934, 1998, and 2002. That means, from the other 23 midterm election cycles, the White House opposition party won the overall seat gains. That will happen here in 2018.

[Quote]It wasn't that long ago that Kansajs had Sebelius, elected to two terms. Parkinson finished her second term when she went to the Obama admin. It's been back-and-forth Dems and Reps since the 1950s, so hopefully that'll play out again this year and Kobach will be stopped.

R82—Kansas has been electing governors opposite the party of the incumbent U.S. president since 1990.

• 1990: Joan Finney, Democratic (George Bush, Republican)

• 1994 and 1998: Bill Graves, Republican (Bill Clinton, Democratic)

• 2002 and 2006: Kathleen Sebelius, Democratic (George W. Bush, Republican)

• 2010 and 2014: Sam Brownback, Republican (Barack Obama, Democratic)

In 2014, Sam Brownback won re-election by only +3.69 percentage points. The Republicans won the popular vote, for Governor, by +4.09. So, Kansas can be flipped.

Nope. Neither the the House nor the Senate will flip. Voters are stupid.

Read, but DO NOT lose focus!

House GOP 'screwed' as bad political numbers pile on Trump

Analysis: The pre-midterms mood in the majority ranks is grim with President Donald Trump's approval ratings slipping and the poll edge for Democrats increasing.

The House will definitely flip. Unless he invades Venezuela. Or Iran.

I have no doubt that he is dying to invade somewhere.

Watching those "nonvoters" on Chris Hayes last night was infuriating. Even after witnessing the destruction Dump has caused, that fucker said he still needed to be "inspired" to vote for someone. The other bitch, who ran for something, said voting for the lesser of two evils is still evil. Comparing Hillary to evil. WTF are these idiots snorting?

Some are just hopeless. Chris finally did shut them down by almost yelling at them for still having that attitude when the choice is between people dying or not. Those nonvoters who still are undecided about voting are head cases. Fuck them. They should be made to suffer the consequences.

They literally had the SC at stake for a generation and thought "ehh I'm not inspired so I'm not gonna vote for President." Too stupid for words.

No.

Just vote motherfuckers and the rest will take care of itself. And get your lazy non-voting dem friends to vote too.

www.electoral-vote.com is a good site, provides daily updates.

it really doesn't take much. a few Mexican Americans and African Americans voting in Texas. A few displaced Puerto Ricans in Florida. There are no guarantees, and this could all fall apart, but right now I think hatred of Trump is greater than love of Trump. We'll see, but it is definitely doable.

one totally fucked up, useless, piece of shit president can make all the difference in the world.

There are many many people here in TX who are very sick of Dump and hate Cruz. He has lost enough of his 2016 voters and it makes a difference. He will never lose the 36% but he has lost around 8-9% and even within that 36% enough are unmotivated to vote. I suspect many of them really don't like him but the hell they will never admit it.

Honestly has anyone actually liked Ted Cruz? Really, actually liked him? I suspect nobody ever. But that doesn't mean they won't vote for him. We have to just turn out the people that are pretty much guaranteed to hate him: non whites, unmarried women, the poors.

Yeah but Cruz has really done himself no favors over the past few years. The disdain and hate for him runs DEEP now. More disdain which is more damning in TX than anything. Remember, Hillary did very well in TX. We also have several state positions where the Repug is very unpopular like our Lt Gov and Atty Gen(who is indicited on charges). It could be a perfecto storm.

I think you may be right r101. I do think the wave is coming. nobody can be complacent, but nobody needs to deny the obvious. people fucking hate, hate, hate the assholes in the Republican Party these days.

r102 Believe me, no one is taking anything for granted. People need to vote like their lives depend on it because it actually does.

I am feeling optimistic about the Senate in general. Things are trending towards the Dems. The news will only get worse for Dump and Co. He is starting to spiral and is making really stupid mistakes- more so than the usual cluster that is his term.

In Arizona Doug ducey is playing some shady games with McCain’s senate seat. He’s officially appointed Jon kyl, but kyl says he only wants a one year appointment. What this will mean, is that if McSally loses ducey will appoint her next.... or he could also just appoint himself. God forbid we actually get a chance to vote for our own representatives in an emergency election.

Fingers crossed!

Let's be positive (for a change).

That would be one of my fondest wishes. I would like to have a knife fight with Mitch and with his criminal wife.

Today's main development involving the Senate race in Texas is that the top Democratic Super PAC has not decided yet whether it will invest in Texas.

That could be a sign that Democrats don't think O'Rourke can make it, or it could be that they think O'Rourke has already raised sufficient millions to fight the race.

But it's a factor to keep an eye on.

What did Cruz in? He started kissing Trumps butt...how could you respect that. His wife should have put him in the guest room and she should never do him another favor.

Many of you are out of touch...most people are not getting a raise or higher wages.

ted cruz is a useless lying dick

the donald is a useless lying desperate fucked up mental case dick

kavanaugh is an evil motherfucker dick

mcconnell is an ugly evil useless lying dick.....

If the Senate does not flip in 2018, it will flip in 2020 with a prime flip of a Democratic president and both houses of Congress.

SHIT SHALL GET DONE!

The Dems got the momentum but the Repubs are gonna cheat!

So, do we think this is really Heidi Cruz stealing the Beto for Senate sign?

WHO is this Democrat David Baria of Mississippi? He is EATING up the set on "Morning Joe"! Everyone on the panel and in the audience are just transfixed by him!

Beto should make some little conciliatory remark calculated to flatter Tump's ego—just enough to prompt Trump to one of his backhanded, backstabbing tweets or speeches where he'd say something like, "Ted Cruz is a great ally in the Senate. Then again, I could get along very well with Beto, too; I could get along very well with either of them. We'll see what happens"—completely undermining his support when he visits TX.

My prediction is democrats take the house with a slim margin and republicans keep the Senate.

The Dems will sweep the house but the Senate is a toss up.

Whoever that is, R113, it LOOKS like Heidi. Same little pink sweater and everything.

R117 What a bold statement! I hadn’t heard that one before.

O'Rourke 's campaign has lots of money. If he loses, it won't be because he didn't spend enough money.

Fivethirthyeight predicts Republicans will keep the Senate.

[quote]Fivethirthyeight predicts Republicans will keep the Senate.

They also said that Hillary would win the presidency too!

Everything is too close to call anything right now.

[quote]My prediction is democrats take the house with a slim margin and republicans keep the Senate.

You are so wrong about the 'slim margin' in the first part of your sentence that it makes me completely disbelieve the second part.

Things are far too early to believe all polls or predictions. The Dems have all the momentum and things are looking dire for Dump.

Beto is going positive but there is so much he could throw at Lyin Ted, which is what he should call him. He should remind everyone Dump called him Lyin Ted and Ted now kicks Dump's stinky, dingle-berry ass. That makes Lyin Ted look so weak.

r124 LICKS his stinky, dingle-berry ass. Ugh why didn't I proof read!

[quote] Even after witnessing the destruction Dump has caused, that fucker said he still needed to be "inspired" to vote for someone. The other bitch, who ran for something, said voting for the lesser of two evils is still evil. Comparing Hillary to evil.

I watched this and was furious too. The "inspired" mantra sounds like "I want to be coddled" millennial egocentrism. Like that btich idiot who decided to run herself because - not that she said it but it was so obvious - she sees herself as so much better than Hillz and the god's gift to the electorate. From the way she talked, apparently she lost whatever she was running for.

[quote]My prediction is democrats take the house with a slim margin and republicans keep the Senate.

Well...

Wealthiest Republican supporter in Ohio quits party

The wealthiest supporter of the GOP in Ohio said Thursday that he is no longer a member of the Republican Party.

“I just decided I’m no longer a Republican,” L Brands CEO Leslie Wexner said during a panel discussion at a leadership summit, according to The Columbus Dispatch.

Wexner, who said he’s been a Republican since college, added that he is now an independent, before saying that he “won’t support this nonsense in the Republican Party” anymore.

“I haven’t run an ad in the newspaper that said, ‘I quit,’” he said.

The Columbus Dispatch noted that Wexner said he’s instead been writing notes to friends who are lawmakers and telling them that he’s no longer a member of the GOP.

The development came just a day after former President Obama slammed GOP lawmakers during a rally in Ohio for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Richard Cordray.

“What you’re seeing is Republicans in Congress who are bending over backwards to try to shield and deflect oversight of this behavior and accountability and consequences," Obama said.

“This is serious. You know it is. And frankly even some of the Republicans know it is. They will say it, they just don’t do anything about it. … [They say,] 'we’ll put up with crazy' in exchange for tax reform and deregulation.”

Wexner called Obama’s visit to Ohio this week a “great moment for the community,” according to the Dispatch. “I was struck by the genuineness of the man; his candor, humility and empathy for others,” Wexner said.

The newspaper noted that the comments stand in stark contrast to what the GOP supporter has said about President Trump.

The billionaire CEO reportedly said in a speech last year that he was “ashamed” by Trump’s response to the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Va., that erupted in violence and led to the death of a 32-year-old woman.

The Ohio businessman has donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to Republican candidates and groups over the years, including giving $250,000 to a super PAC backing Sen. Rob Portman's (R) reelection campaign in 2016 and nearly $70,000 to GOP committees and candidates in Ohio and other states, the Dispatch noted.

Wexner isn't the only person to renounce their GOP affiliation this year. In August, Michael London, a former member of the Trumbull Town Council in Connecticut, announced he was leaving the party because it was "no longer the party that I believed in all these years."

The Dems overwhelmingly take the House, the Republicans hold the Senate by 2 - however...

There’s a lot that can happen. Trump and his minions are dirty as demons and Mueller could reveal something ugly that changes things. Or, Trump could have a public meltdown that also changes things. That will make a difference and only time will tell. Both are well within possibility.

2020 may be the Year of Three Presidents...

[quote]2020 may be the Year of Three Presidents...

Pence will make a fine Galba, who, according to Suetonius, "In sexual matters ... was more inclined to males, and then none but the hard bodied and those fully mature." And who was overthrown in very short order.

Looks like the senate will be 50-50. I do wish Beto would win but it appears he is behind in the polls.

Why don’t we just hire Russians to change the votes?

I saw something on MSN.com yesterday that Al Franken's former seat is now a dead heat between the Republican and Democratic contenders.

Once again, we have only to thank that wretched cunt Kirsten Gillibrand and her pathetic, merry band of Pussy Avengers for making this situation possible. Way to snatch (pardon the pun) defeat from the jaws of victory.

Will Beto and Sen. Mouthbooger have a debate?

[quote]I do wish Beto would win but it appears he is behind in the polls.

True, despite all the buzz surrounding Beto, the odds are still against him.

It's difficult for Democrats to win a statewide race in Texas these days. They haven't held the Governorship since Ann Richards lost to George Bush in the 1990's, and they haven't won a Senate seat since Lloyd Bentsen.

The demographics of Texas may be different for the Democrats in another decade, but right now it is still challenging to identify and turn out enough Democrats in Texas to win statewide.

(Video clip below of the last Democratic Senator for Texas -- the legendary Lloyd Bentsen in his debate with Vice President Dan Quayle):

And Texas prevented the REPUBLICANS from controlling the House for decades.

"Will the Senate flip?"

My hair?

[quote]I saw something on MSN.com yesterday that Al Franken's former seat is now a dead heat between the Republican and Democratic contenders.

R133, I'm not sure why they said that, because there's no evidence at this point that the Democrats have to worry about Minnesota.

It's true that without Al Franken's incumbency advantage the Democrats won't win by as large a margin, but so far new Democratic Senator Tina Smith is ahead in the polls.

The latest Mason-Dixon poll has Smith 7 points ahead of Housley.

And Mason-Dixon usually has a Republican lean.

Smith (D) 44%

Housley (R) 37%

No.

Oh please let it happen somehow! Trump’s presidency is a catastrophic mistake so everything must done to curtail him.

What the FUCK is the matter with them????

Texas Democrats need a big turnout to win. Polls suggest they won't get it.

CNN)It's become an old cliché that elections "come down to turnout." While that may be exaggerated in most places, it's definitely not in Texas. Democrats need voters who don't traditionally vote to cast a ballot this year in order to to win, and it's not clear that they will in 2018. This could cost Democrats on both the Senate and House sides.

A new Quinnipiac University poll of the Texas Senate race finds Republican Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democrat Beto O'Rourke by a 9-point margin. That's Cruz's best poll in over two months, and an increase from his 6-point advantage last month in the Quinnipiac University poll. Some of this change could be statistical noise, but Quinnipiac also changed the population it was polling between surveys. They went from registered to likely voters.

Not all voters actually cast a ballot in an election. That's why it's important to poll the subset of voters who actually will.

Most public pollsters shift to likely voters around this time as it becomes clearer who is going to vote in the midterm the closer we are to an election. That's especially the case for pollsters who don't rely on a voting list such as Quinnipiac to know how often people have voted in the past.

Democrats have seriously been talking about flipping Texas since 2012. It is still a very conservative state with terrible turnout rates among minorities, partially because the Texas GOP intentionally makes it difficult for minorities to vote. One sure thing is that old white Texas conservatives will turnout.

It will still be a few more cycles before it's flippable. It's a shame because Beto is an excellent candidate. He is just running in a difficult state against an incumbent.

I dont know, but I discount polls for the most part at this point due to their complete failure in 2016. From what I can tell, many of the polls still mainly phone land lines to do the polling, which skews it badly in the first place.

Quinnipiac's criterion for "likely" voters seems to be their having voted in 2016. We should hope for a big Democratic turnout, for which maybe a sign is the heavy turnout for Beto even in red areas and the general Democratic wave that seems to be building.

No singular poll has shown Beto ahead. The polls were generally correct in 2016 except some of the swing states (namely Wisconsin) but the national horserace was correct. Hillary was ahead by 2-3 points in the polls and that's what she won by nationally (popular vote).

I think liberals are making a mistake putting everything on Beto when they should be donating and volunteering for Senate candidates who are more likely to win, like Bredsen in Tenn and Sinema in Ariz.

I don't know any Texas Democrats who're putting everything on Beto, r145. We're rooting for him. We're certainly hoping for increased turnout because of his popularity. But the people I know who're volunteering are focusing on races that are considered more competitive. Some seats in the U.S. House are in play. And we need increased representation in the state legislature (I don't know anyone who thinks the lege will turn blue soon).

I wouldn't consider donations to Beto a waste, even if he does lose. He's got game. He's good for Texas Democrats.

[quote]No. The short answer to your question that nobody is admitting.

It's not that simple. A 30% chance, which is roughly what we're talking about, doesn't warrant a flat "no." It warrants a "it's fairly unlikely."

And agreed with R145. I like Beto and so far he appears to be running a near-perfect campaign but this is Texas. The odds are against him. That said, if he can tie up Republican resources, even in a losing cause, those are resources that are not available to help other candidates.

Unlikely voters are the ones that are going to make this a blue wave year. They are polling older, Repug-leaning voters if they are polling likely voters as they were defined in 2016.

Stay focused and canvass, phone bank and donate.

It is still September people! Simma down now. Lets see where things stand a month from now.

Trump is just a volatile, unhinged, criminal that anything can happen to rock the vote. Without something that shocks the senses, the Dems will not take the Senate.

[quote]From what I can tell, many of the polls still mainly phone land lines to do the polling, which skews it badly in the first place.

The large majority of pollsters today poll both land lines and cellphones and include a mix of each in their sampling.

Very few pollsters today poll only land lines unless they are very small.

Almost all mainstream credible pollsters in the industry poll cellphones.

I'm not in the mood for any flipping right now.

It makes me really sad that people are still pretending we have free and fair elections and that voter turnout has any bearing on the reported tallies. Wake the fuck up. It's all rigged.

R152 But poll troll, are people as likely to answer poll calls since they have caller ID? (I’m not.)

R155 is typing from the 1980s. Polling is more accurate than it's not. If Beto was up, at least some polls would show him up. That's how statistics works. It's not like TX is an infrequently polled state. There have been four quality pollsters in the field over the past month and they show Cruz up anywhere from +4 to +9 (the latter being a poll that was released today).

OK R156. Just wondered who knowingly answers poll calls? Also, how accurate were the polls in Fall 2016?

R154 it's not all rigged. Special election September 2017, we flipped one seat, turned Wa state blue. Now we are positioned to gain in state legislature.

It's not just big federal seats that are important.

I'm canvassing for the Dem in the most gerrymandered district in the state for November. This is an uphill battle, true. But we have to do the work. We are fighting a war, not a battle. No matter what happens in November, we have to fight for our rights.

[quote]But poll troll, are people as likely to answer poll calls since they have caller ID? (I’m not.)

R155, there is always a certain non-response rate when pollsters make phone calls -- but that applies to both landlines and cellphones.

If pollsters don't reach someone, they just keep going down the list of numbers until they reach the required mathematical quota of both landlines & cellphones to include in the sample size.

Usually the number of landlines & cellphones are included in the polling data when it is published.

Hey! Looks like there CAN be flips in Texas! Unfortunately tonight it involved a state Senate seat flipping TO THE GOP that the Democrats had held for 139 YEARS! Fucking worthless Texas Hispanics. Not only are they generally too fucking lazy to vote, the ones that do vote for the goddamned Republicans. Needless to say this is not a good sign for Beto.

The Democrats really need to stop the fetishization of Texas. The state of Mollie Ivins and Ann Richards is long gone, AND IT AIN'T COMING BACK. Stop throwing money into this fucking pit and use it for legitimate possible flips (AZ and NV), and holding the seats you DO have.

agree with whomever said that even if he loses, Beto is pulling money and resources away from other states so I will throw him a couple more bucks and also send some to Kristen in AZ.

We can fight on multiple fronts. And in the trenches - canvassing, phone banking, talking to neighbors, registering people to vote. We CAN do this. We have the tools, the talent and the grit.

Work like we're 5 points down. Everyone can do something!

Perception versus reality is deceiving. If the economy doesn’t feel better, it isn’t. Tariffs our taxes. Spending is spending. Deficits are high. Trump Crash is inevitable.

[quote]Fucking worthless Texas Hispanics. Not only are they generally too fucking lazy to vote

And why exactly would we take advice from a "Mexicans are lazy" guy like you? Especially when that advice is "don't try to change anything."

Texas demographics and surveys point to a possible change toward a purple state. No one said it wine easy or immediate, but the "it'll never happen" crap from people like you and BernieBros like Chris Cillizza is just noise.

It DEFINITELY won't happen if we do nothing in Texas as you suggest.

The Texas seat flipped largely because the sitting Dem was convicted of nearly a dozen felonies.

Also, just FYI, Democrats weren't liberal for a lot of those 139 years. Recent Dems have been liberal, of course, but Republican candidates since the 1990s have often done well as long as they were Latino, losing but not by huge margins.

It was a matter of time before that district would flip red, and the Dem incumbent being a huge damn criminal was what it took.

Not sure how that compares to many other districts. Besides, everyone knows Beto is ANYTHING but guaranteed a win.

The seat opened up because the incumbent was a criminal, r164. The Democrat who ran and lost was not a criminal and as a matter of fact was well known. As far as "a matter of time", that district is a rural Hispanic district. If it's simply a matter of time for Hispanic districts to turn red, then the Dems have a real problem on their hands.

r163, my point is that this race is draining resources from winnable races. In addition, positions like "abolish ICE", and "open borders" are KILLING US with white working class voters. If they vote, and Hispanic voters don't, well....

Except, R165, you're wrong the "draining resources from winnable races," since Beto is only taking small donations, not PAC money. Not to mention that Democrats aren't running on a policy of "open borders" and the overwhelming majority are running on "Replace ICE," which isn't "KILLING US."

Democrats are running on local issues for the most part, and the single largest issue that they are running on is health care, with something like 30% of their advertising dollars going towards that issue.

In short, you're full of shit.

Heidi Heitkamp's opponent might have just given her a bit of ammunition.

With Juuuuuuuust enough of the population to put her at 50+1. Just like R Moore.

Women are pissed. (But then again we said when we thought Hillary was gonna win; and we all know how well that went. ) It's the economy, stupid. Presidents don't have much control over economies. It happens when it happens. Trump is heading this nation, for better or worse, towards growth. Nothing to do with D or R. That's just how things are.

President’s have everything to do with the economy. President’s create perceptions. The 2008 crash was Bush’s fault.

The Stock Market is a barometer of how well rich people are doing.

Not the little guy.

Rich people are doing FANTASTICALLY!

I very much doubt it. We haven't had any good news in a long time and I don't see us seeing any good news anytime soon.

There's about a 70% chance of the Republicans winning the Senate right now.

But the Democrats have about an 80% chance of winning the House.

I WANT THEM BOTH!!!

Will it happen?

Right now, the odds are still against it, R175, but the one thing that nobody knows is just who will turn out for this election. We're in uncharted territory.

House looking pretty likely. Senate... not very likely. Is possible, but will require practically a miracle. Frankly I feel for Heitkamp and Manchin. If they vote against the drunken asshole for the SC, their states are going to be livid, and unlike the other states (FL, MO, IN, etc) there isn't any sort of liberal base to carry them.

R177, don't be too sure about support for Kavanaugh. He's the least popular Supreme Court nominee in quite a long time. I suspect that Heitkamp and Manchin can vote against him without much fear at this point, particularly given his performance.

The Nevada Republican holdover will lose to the Democrat.

Arizona would have turned both of its Senate seats to Democrat if the Repug governor had allowed a special election for John mcCain’s seat. Instead, Dems will have to settle with Flake’s old seat.

Beto will beat Cruz and that’s your three seats to make Dems the majority.

The governor had nothing to do with it, r179. Had Mccain stepped down before May, there would have been a mandatory special election in November. Because he didn't step down/die in time, the mandatory special election has been moved to November 2020. Whether Mccain truly thought he was going to beat the cancer, or whether he held on strictly to deny the Dems a chance to pick up two, we'll likely never know. And I am REALLY getting nervous about the Flake seat. Sinema is getting absolutely pounded on television here, and I'm not seeing any real response from her campaign.

Beto hasn't lead in a single legitimate poll, and in fact is now falling slightly farther behind. And all that presupposes that the Dems don't lose any of the seats they currently hold, which seems VERY unlikely at the moment. Heitkamp is trailing in every poll I have seen from ND, and Mccaskill(MO) goes back and forth as does Donnelly (IN).

Just do the work:canvass, phone bank, donate to the candidates you like. So many people undecided and who knows why.

Donnelly has the edge in Indiana. That may also explain why he feels confident enough to announce he's voting against Kavanaugh.

McCaskill is in Missouri is more vulnerable than Donnelly so far.

Jacky Rosen is in a tight race with Sen. Heller in Nevada, and it could go either way.

Sinema is also in tight in Arizona.

Heitkamp had an extremely narrow win in 2012, so it's not surprising she's in again tough this year. Heitkamp will never be able to win North Dakota by the margins that former Dem. Senator Kent Conrad did. But she pulled it out in 2012, so it's possible she could do so again.

The main positive news for Dems over the past week in the Senate has been the improving poll numbers for Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida. It was starting to look like he was a goner, but he appears to have bounced back in at least 2 new polls. It also helps Nelson that Gillum is doing well in the Governor's race so far.

Abso-fucking-lutely, r182!!

Cramer had a "legitimate rape" moment vis-a-vis Christine Blasey Ford a week or so ago, so I see Heitkamp's position as strong heading into the final month, R182.

Nevada is probably the hardest state in the country to poll and polls there routinely undercount Democratic support. Given the national environment and the fact that Heller voted to repeal ACA last year, you'd really rather be Rosen right now. That's before even taking into account the strength of the Democratic machine there in an election that will be all about base turnout.

Sinema is up nearly four points in 538's polling average of her race. Only one poll in the last ten months has shown her trailing. The race could be tightening but I'm not seeing justification for the chicken little hot takes farther up in the thread.

Donnelly and McCaskill are going to pull it out, I'm predicting. Their states are red but they're strong incumbents and they have an incredible tailwind. McCaskill in particular has survived in much worse situations than her current one.

For some reason I'm feeling nervous about Tennessee. I'm hoping for an "I'm not a witch" or "Second Amendment solutions" moment from wacky Blackburn so that Bredesen can put her away.

Beto actually has a shot. 538 had a recent article in which they explained that the fundamentals of the race are actually in his favor. Cruz's flop sweat is the best indicator that he knows he's in trouble. Beto's commitment to serve out his full term if elected and to limit himself to two Senate terms might bring over some leaners.

Again, this is all with my usual caveat that our elections aren't hacked, which is far from assured. One of the first thing Democrats need to do when they return to power in state governments is return all elections to paper ballots and secure voter registration databases, which are basically sieves right now.

Not happening r185. Next.

[quote]Nevada is probably the hardest state in the country to poll and polls there routinely undercount Democratic support. Given the national environment and the fact that Heller voted to repeal ACA last year, you'd really rather be Rosen right now. That's before even taking into account the strength of the Democratic machine there in an election that will be all about base turnout.

Yes, Former Sen. Harry Reid put together an enormously strong ground operation in Nevada over the years he was in office. It's incredibly well-organized and efficient.

Reid was able to beat Sharron Angle in 2010 despite the fact that some polls showed him trailing her going into Election Day.

The Reid machine also helped pull Cortez Masto across the finish line in 2016 to become his replacement.

But the race between Rosen and Heller is narrow, so that's why it's still considered a Toss Up for now.

My "chicken little hot take" on Sinema comes from the fact that I LIVE HERE, and I've seen how tough it is for a Democrat to actually get over the hump in any statewide race. I wish I had your optimism on Tennessee though. I have never thought that race was anything but a mirage, considering how red that state is.

Also, the conventional wisdom is that Rosen should be further ahead in Nevada, although if Heller votes for Kavanaugh as expected, that should give her a decent boost. Agree that Donnelly has looked very good (although last night he started to hedge on Kavanaugh, now he says he is undecided). Tester in MT also looks good despite it being a Trump state.

[quote]Tester in MT also looks good despite it being a Trump state.

Montana has actually been a decent state for the Democrats over the years. It's not as right-wing as some people assume.

It has had a Democratic Senator for quite a while, plus it has a Democratic Governor.

Plus, Bill Clinton won Montana once.

And Barack Obama finished only 2 points behind McCain in 2008.

I think that however the Kavanaugh vote goes, it will energize the opposing side to vote.

[quote]I think that however the Kavanaugh vote goes, it will energize the opposing side to vote.

I think that we all can be partisan to what we hear due to our political beliefs but it seems that Republicans are trying to use the Kavanaugh mess as a rallying cry. I'm not feeling any success though. In my opinion, women are steering this ship and they are more on the side of Dr. Ford. But, I could be wrong!

The Florida Senate race may be moving away from Republican Rick Scott

Sat September 29, 2018

by Harry Enten

[quote]The Florida Senate race may be moving away from Republican Rick Scott

All of the recent news is VERY encouraging for Democrats BUT it important to STAY FOCUSED! These candidates must run as if their life (well in a way it does in a way) depends upon it!

The Beto O'Rourke rally yesterday. Gillum in Florida. I'm not hearing a lot about Stacy Abrams though

No, the Senate will not flip. "Politics," with this much at stake, is not about 'Right or Wrong'; it's about party allegiance.

The reason Cheeto has elected to engage an FBI investigation into the Kavanaugh matter is because he's exploiting yet another opportunity in order employ yet another distraction from his shit.

The Senate is likely to flip. The House is a tougher one to call.

Don't you have that backwards, r195?

The reverse is the case, R195.

There's about an 80% chance of the House going Democratic, based on current forecasting data.

The Senate is about 70% likely to go Republican, although the Democrats have a shot.

The next 5 weeks will be interesting.

If the investigation into Kavanaugh can’t find anyone credible to testify against him, even after specific questions from the FBI about sexual misconduct, he will be confirmed Friday.

With so many races so close I don’t think any polling that doesn’t show a commanding lead by one candidate is up in the air.

A serious misstep by Trump, the GOP, or the DNC, could radically change the elections.

The accusations against K. Ellison are getting more attention because of Kavanaugh.

Shhhhhhhhh! I win, agin.

[quote]The accusations against K. Ellison are getting more attention because of Kavanaugh.

Oh please, "WHO"? The Republicans are desperate to make him an issue but it's a local matter as far as I'm concerned. National Democrats have left him to flail on his own. That's the right decision in my opinion. It's up to Ellison to come out with credible explanations and handle his business. From what I have read, he's taken the path of not acknowledging it. MMPH! Okay....

The only reason Ellison even has a chance is because the Repubs nominated an insane Jesus freak. If they had picked a normal candidate, Ellison would be getting his abusive ass kicked.

STAY FOCUSED

Texas Republicans trying to hold off Beto O'Rourke's challenge for Ted Cruz's Senate seat

"Cruz only sees the Red in Texas. Beto sees the Red the Blue and the White. Beto said it before. He cares less about Political stance. He wants a change in Texas. Let's help Beto win Texas. Than let's help him to help us. Texas helped Cruz win and then Cruz forgot about Texas."

"dude trying to say Beto is a "cult-like figure" and "you don't vote on personality, you vote on issues"--BETO IS AS POPULAR AS HE IS BECAUSE OF THE ISSUES HE TALKS ABOUT."

I think that what is helping Nelson in Florida is the fact that the Dem Gov candidate is an African American. He's got the Dem base all riled up, specially since the blatant racist comments of his opponent, that it is going to translate to votes for the Senate candidate also. At least I hope so.

He will certainly draw black voters in South Florida out, r203. Now we just have to hope they will pull the lever for Nelson as well. Normally that wouldn't be a problem, but Scott IS the current governor.

that seems to be the strategy across the board, r203. A strong and popular democrat candidate at any position on the ballot fires up people to vote.

There is a push to get people to vote straight D all the way down ballot. Create the coattails or the tail wind on some of these candidates.

It seems a good strategy as fired up as team blue is to vote

Unfortunately I think Heitkamp is a sure goner. McCaskill is the next one to go.

I actually think the Senate will flip. Heidkamp probably loses but as long as they pick up three seats in either AZ, NV, TX, and TN then they'll get it.

Donnelly and McCaskill's races will be tough but I think they'll ultimately pull it off as well.

If Ole Lyin' (boogers snacking, Lucifer in the Flesh) Ted loses, that would be splendid.

Mueller could help. Indictment for Roger Stone? Junior Mint?

Ted Cruz and Marsha Blackburn losing would officially call an end to the Tea Party.

WHO? I know....

Of course...

Polling Spotlight: Republicans can thank Trump for highly motivated Democratic voters

"The Supreme Court has soared to the top of voter concerns, edging out health care and the economy. Republicans—especially social conservatives—have long cared more than Democrats about court appointments. Now, for the first time I can remember, this has been reversed. A remarkable 81 percent of Democrats say that court appointments will be “very important” to their vote, compared to 72 percent of Republicans. During the 2016 presidential contest, by contrast, only 62 percent of Democrats regarded the Supreme Court as very important."

Democrats can be soooo annoying!

Miss Thang has two years before she runs again.

The Koch Bros and the Russher oligarchs will be writing big numbers in their checkbooks.

Concern Troll alert in aisle r206

[quote]Unfortunately I think Heitkamp is a sure goner. McCaskill is the next one to go.

Heitkamp is the most vulnerable red state Democrat in the current polling, but she's not a goner yet. She's narrowly behind. She may lose, but it's too close to call.

McCaskill is tied in the polls with Josh Hawley. She's vulnerable, but still in the game.

Indivisible is looking for people to phone bank for senate seats, if you have time.

It will if enough of us vote out the scum Republicans, we need to vote regardless of the polls and predictions, if 80,000 more of us had voted in three key states this nightmare of a President wouldn't have been elected. Now we need to take away control of the Senate.

It is important to vote progressives in your state elections also, this if the feeder system for future national candidates. If you are waiting for the prefect candidate, they don't exist. You vote for the lesser evil if necessary but VOTE.

I agree with R207, but I think that all the current Democratic Senators are going to win. The Dems, as a whole, will narrowly thread the needle and win enough seats to take control. We may end up with the House majority, the Senate majority, and black Democratic governors in Florida and Georgia. On the morning of November 7 we may be saying, "Thanks, Trump."

This has the feel of a groundbreaking election. People are very fired up. They are tired of all of the BS from 45 and his maladministration.

CAVEAT: everyone has to work like hell over the next 35 days and vote!!! Take nothing for granted.

[quote]On the morning of November 7 we may be saying, "Thanks, Trump."

Not me! The first thing that will come out of my mouth?

"We've got work to do."

McCaskill leads Hawley in the latest Missouri poll.

One thing to keep in mind is that we're in uncharted territory on election turnout. Nobody really knows just how is going to show up on election day.

Don’t think the Senate will flip. House for certain.

Heitkamp down 10 (OUCH!) in latest poll. Sorry guys, I think it's getting safe to say she IS a goner. She hasn't led in any poll I've seen, and she hasn't even released internal polls saying otherwise (which is what politicians usually do to contradict a negative narrative). Hopefully the Dems can line her up some sort of cushy job in exchange for a "no" vote on Kavanaugh.

Now New Jersey is a toss up. Dems may actually LOSE seats this year.

As absolutely fucking VILE as Bob Menendez is, I have a real hard time seeing NJ sending a Republican to the Senate this year, especially since there's a really good chance they give 4/5 GOP-held Congressional districts to the Dems.

R223, considering that Republicans were talking about getting a filibuster-proof 60 seats just a year ago, where we are today is a huge Democratic win, even if they don't take back the Senate. And yes, we know that the odds favor Republicans holding the Senate.

But aside from that North Dakota poll, just about all of the recent polls have favored Democrats. No, New Jersey isn't a "tossup." Menendez still has a solid advantage there.

Keep in mind that this was going to be a brutal year for Democrats in the Senate, quite possibly the worst map ever. And instead of trying desperately to prevent Republicans from getting to 60 seats, we're seriously considering the possibility of Democrats holding onto what they have. And we're seeing Republicans having to pour money into races that they thought, that everyone thought, were a shoo-in for them.

Republicans were supposed to be favored in West Virginia, in North Dakota, in Missouri, in Montana, in Indiana, in Nevada, in Tennessee, in Arizona, in Texas, in Florida. And instead, all of those states are being hotly contested, with very real chances of Democratic victories in all but North Dakota.

To take back the Senate, the Democrats have to practically run the table on all of these close elections, which is why Republicans are still favored 3 to 1 to hold the Senate, but there is still a very real chance.

That's a fantastic point, r226.

In my opinion, Democrats need to spend the month of October focusing on the issues. HEALTHCARE! HEALTHCARE! HEALTHCARE!!! EDUCATION! EDUCATION! EDUCATION!!!

"Obamacare premiums projected to decrease, despite Trump Admin hopes to unravel law"

R228, the issue that Democratic candidates are spending the largest amount of their advertising budget on is health care, and it's not even close.

I'm not really following your comment, R229. But, let me say this, there have been years of major marketing against ObamaCare and yet it survives. People are still complaining about healthcare and rightfully so by many. The message has got to be gotten out that the law is working but needs fixing. What have Republicans done? They have done nothing but put forth efforts to destroy the law.

Democrats want to fix it and make it better.

"Trump's own figures show that Obamacare is working well for the vast majority of enrollees"

[quote]One thing to keep in mind is that we're in uncharted territory on election turnout. Nobody really knows just how is going to show up on election day.

True.

At the moment, polls are showing very high levels of enthusiasm among Democratic voters -- off the charts in fact. Democratic enthusiasm in 2018 is registering at even higher levels than it did during the 2006 Midterms when they took back Congress from George W. Bush.

However, polls are also showing pretty solid levels of enthusiasm among Republican voters -- higher than is usually the case for Midterms during a Republican Presidency. That means the GOP base is sticking behind Trump and plans to show up so far.

So both sides appear to be more engaged than usual, with the advantage going to the Democrats.

I Think the Kavanaugh battle has energized Republicans

There will be a blue wave as national misogyny is not on the ballot for men and women are angry.

[quote]If the investigation into Kavanaugh can’t find anyone credible to testify against him, even after specific questions from the FBI about sexual misconduct, he will be confirmed Friday.

Well that comment didn't age well. There are plenty of people coming out now with comments against Kavanaugh, and the FBI is speaking to Ramirez and witnesses who can back her up and support her.

Kavanaugh is going down, and Trump knows it. He blew it by choosing him without doing a thorough "opposition" vetting.

If Dems can keep it close this year, they’ll especially benefit from the fact that twice as many R-held seats are in play in 2020 as are D seats.

[quote]I Think the Kavanaugh battle has energized Republicans

Could be. The same poll that shows Heitkamp behind by 10 points shows that North Dakotans support the confirmation of Kavanaugh by a 60 % to 27% margin .... and that more people rated Kavanaugh as their top concern than any other single issue.

Its pretty obvious that Heitkamp is a goner. In other news Manchin has been consistently polling well. Also McCaskill. What really helps some of these democrats is that they are in states with some Black populations. The thing with African Americans is that even tho a good % of them are very religious, they mostly see the bullshit of the Christian right and never fall for it. Mad respect for that.

[quote]I'm not really following your comment, R229.

There was a study of what issues the candidates are spending their advertising money on. For Democrats, 31.5% of the funding was going to advertisements on health care, 14.4% on negative Trump ads, 10.6% on jobs, etc.

For Republicans, it was taxes at 18.3%, pro-Trump at 17.9%, and immigration at 15.1%.

The Kavanaugh effect: New poll shows Supreme Court fight is motivating Republican voters

r235, you are a wise person about 2020. It will take 2/3 of the Senate to remove a SCJ.

It will be a cold day in Hell before we get 2/3 of the Senate to agree on ANYTHING. He ain't getting impeached, any more than Trump would ever get impeached. If he ends up getting in and is as horrible as we're afraid of, the only thing to do is to maybe try and expand the Court. Yeah, it's hardball, but if the Dems can land the House and Senate and Presidency in 2020, we can maybe do it.

[quote]The Kavanaugh effect: New poll shows Supreme Court fight is motivating Republican voters

The headline of that article and the content of that article don't match. The poll found that 48% of those polled oppose Kavanaugh's confirmation, which is a six point increase. They didn't do any significant polling to figure out whether Kavanaugh's appointment made a difference.

All they had for that was a single Missouri poll, done on September, 27th, where 46% of supposed "non-partisan voters" said that they would be less likely to vote for McCaskill, 39% said more likely, and 15% said no difference.

Basically, there was zero data that the Kavanaugh hearings are motivating Republican voters.

I think both sides are now energized but the big wild card is if Trump fires Rosenstein before the elections

Trump's approval rating is going up, r242. It's not definite proof, but add it to things like the ND poll I posted above and things start getting a little bit hairy. The cold hard truth is that it would be better for the Democrats if Kavanaugh gets onto the Court. I hate it, but the left will be livid and out for blood at the polls.

This thread is beginning to remind me of all the many Trump Cannot Win/Hillary Cannot Lose threads from 2016, everyone needs to vote, the polls mean absolutely nothing. NOTHING.

I would love Ted Cruz to lose his seat so any texan dataloungers please vote and get other voters registered!

[quote]I think both sides are now energized but the big wild card is if Trump fires Rosenstein before the elections

I don't see that--for whatever it's worth. I see that Republicans are trying to energize people (and thus all of a sudden a NAFTA deal, bump stock ban, a strike against gays)... WOWEE! NYT, just DROPPED A MAJOR STORY ABOUT TRUMP'S FINANCES!!!!

October surprise!

New York Times story...

"Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father"

No, the Senate is a total power bottom.

[quote]Trump's approval rating is going up, R242.

Not really. Any movement of a point or two is just noise in the system. He's been bouncing around between 40% and 43% for months and he's still in that range.

[quote]The cold hard truth is that it would be better for the Democrats if Kavanaugh gets onto the Court. I hate it, but the left will be livid and out for blood at the polls.

It will be better for the country if he does not. And every poll this year has shown Democrats more motivated than Republicans. We still do not have the data as to the longer-term impact of the Kavanaugh appointment. It always takes a few days for things to settle down.

Republicans are crowing about the new Quinnipiac polls showing a major tightening of the generic ballot

Yeah, but we've seen that "tightening" multiple times this year. That's a particularly volatile measure, with massive swings. It got to near-even earlier this year, then widened again. The Democrats are still enjoying a +7.4 advantage in the aggregate poll measure.

What they're really crowing about is that Quinnipiac had a previous measure of +14 but what they conveniently ignore is that this was a huge outlier at that time, up from a previous measure of +9. In that +14 timeframe, Grinnell had Democrats +3, Rasmussen had Democrats +4, and Economic had Democrats +6.

And keep in mind that actual Democratic candidates have outperformed that generic measure many times in the past two years of off-cycle elections.

In short, they can crow all they want but the data aren't there to support that crowing.

Heide Ho in North Dako is falling far behind her Republican opponent. If she loses, there's no chance to retake the Senate.

It's pretty much the same thing with that Heitkamp poll in North Dakota. Yeah, it showed Cramer up an additional 6 points over prior polls but there have been only three total polls in that race in the past several months. And it was always understood that Heitkamp was in for a tough reelection battle and the odds were good that she would lose.

But here's the thing: if this were a real national shift, we'd see it in other candidate polling and, so far, anyway, it's not showing up. The most recent Florida Senate polls have Nelson up a couple of points. Same thing with Manchin in West Virginia, Tester in Montana, and even McCaskill in Missouri.

I'm not saying definitely that the Kavanaugh debacle won't motivate Republicans. All I'm saying is that the data aren't there yet to support that. We're going to have to wait another week or two for this to play out to see what the state of play really is and to see what impact these hearings have had. We'll also have to wait to see whether McConnell can pull this off and ram Kavanaugh's nomination through this weekend.

Sorry, but that's not true, R253. It makes it a bit harder but there is still a clear path for Democrats to retake the Senate, even if Heitkamp loses. The odds are still against it, of course, and I'm definitely not betting on it, but it's also very definitely possible.

its possible but not probable in my opinion

That's everyone's opinion, R256. But keep in mind that we wouldn't even be having a discussion about the possibility a year ago, as things were looking bleak for Senate Democrats, with one of the worst maps in history for them to overcome.

I've got to admit that I was worried about Florida over the summer. I'm happy to see it looks like Nelson is now ahead as the fundamentals of the election always suggested. It never conceivable to me that Nelson would lose but Manchin in WV and Donnelly in IN would win.

Scott's strategy of pouring millions over the summer while Nelson held his fire until Labor Day looks like it worked masterfully.

Democrats would need to pick up AZ, NV and then TN or TX if Heitkamp loses. Tough odds, but not impossible. Nate Silver's had the Democrat's possibility of taking the Senate at 30 percent for months. Still around the same. If anything, things are looking slightly up since Nelson's no longer behind in the polls in Florida.

To put it in perspective--there were 10 vulnerable Democrats in the Senate at the beginning of the year--i.e. Democrats in states where Trump had won and only two clear possible pick-ups. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio are all now looking solid for their incumbents. Montana, WV, Indiana are looking more likely than not. Florida and Missouri are trending toward the Democrat by narrow margins.

Heitkamp's the only one who's been consistently behind in the polls--and there's been only one poll with a large gap, which is probably an outlier--the 4 percent gap is probably more accurate.

If Heitkamp were ahead, it would be a matter of the Democrats picking up NV and Arizona. Now they have to pick up Tennessee (where Bredesden has actually had a small, but consistent lead in the polls, but the state's fundamentals work against a Democrat winning) or Texas.

r 219 iS correct.

Once we get the house and possibly the Senate, the hard work begins. All of this mess will need to be cleaned up and exposed.

It won't be over for a long time. But we have to keep pushing. 2020 is imperative to win. The Senate map is horrible for Rethugs. We need to work toward 2020 to run the table and purge the monsters.

No but it'll tumble for ya.

How does the 2020 election map look for the Democrats? Another thing that is extremely strange is that in the states where Trump barely won in 2016 (and that have Repug senator) the Dem candidate this election is polling extremely well (in some cases like in Penn even 10+ or more). How can people vote in one election for the Repug and then only 2 years later vote for the Dem? Or is that signs that Trump is getting unpopular in those 3 states?

2020 map will be more favorable for Dems than the current cycle. Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and Maine are all up next cycle. All will be GOP held. On the Dem side, only New Hampshire and Alabama (probably a goner) will be seriously contested. Cory Gardner will be the most vulnerable Senator up for re-election. He represents Coloardo and votes like he's from Mississippi.

^ Georgia is up next cycle too.

Maybe Montana too if their popular governor, Steve Bullock, decides to run.

AZ is not up in 2020 but 2022.

Depending on who the GOP decides to nominate, Jones can still have a chance in Alabama. His infrastructure is still there. And anything can happen.

The 2020 map favors democrats and we need to run the table and hold our house seats and take the presidency.

This midterm needs to be the turning point for us. The beginning of the long game to consistently turn out to vote, get new blood in the party and work to elect good people.

If anything good has come out of this mess, it is that many women, POC and LGBT people have decided to run and are winning. We have a deep field of contenders whereas only a few years ago, the pipeline was drying up.

The GOP is dying. All they have are old racist white men. That doesn't reflect the growing face of this nation.

Long game. New blood. Feed the pipeline.

I'm in Michigan, but I just donated $200 to Phil Bredesen's Senate campaign in Tennessee.

R266 There will be a special election in Arizona in 2020, for John McCain's seat.

I'm LOVING Gretchen Whitmer, R268. She's a fantastic candidate with a compelling story and she's hot.

I'm sure Doug Jones is a nice guy, but he is the textbook definition of Dead Man Walking. Frankly, if Roy Moore got the nomination again, I'd bet good money he'd win in a general election in 2020 Alabama.

Will Alabama Republicans decide they want more Moore? Yes, please.

Moore still hasn't conceded the race he lost almost a year ago. He's definitely running.

Yep, r269. And then that person has to run again in 2022 if they want to stay there.

It will be a cold day in Hell before we get 2/3 of the Senate to agree on ANYTHING.

r241, like passing the ACA?

Impeachment takes a simple majority in the House. Dems could impeach Trump 50 months in a row as they tried to repeal and replace the ACA.

We have to wait till it is possible to convict in the Senate before removal becomes a reality. It is all about timing and if it happens it will happen near the time of the Republican convention in 2020. Pence will be long gone by then.

I guess I wasn't being specific enough, r275. Yes, if the Dems take the House they can impeach. However, there is no way in HELL 67 Senators will vote to remove Trump, or Kavanaugh, or Pence or anyone else. This country is far too polarized for something like that to happen.

r276, I believe that once he is impeached in 2020, timing, and with a dump of info from the Mueller investigation, Republicans will have no choice but to remove him. It is all strategic and tactical. We will see.

Republicans will not turn of him

On him

Again, we will see.

Folks, he is not going to be impeached. Running on impeachment is not a winning strategy.

You have two issues r281.

Nobody is running on impeachment because impeachment is not a possibility...now.

We shall see what happens after 01.03.2019 concerning the possibility of impeachment.

Just fucking beat him in 2020. Impeachment is not going anywhere as discussed above.

I think we should beat him, everyone gets one punch. I'm first.

Pay attention! New Jersey is in play! Plus or minus 2%. We have always been a blue state. We're running Menendez, who escaped indictment by the skin of his teeth. And he's running against a pharmaceutical giant who is spending a ton of money on his campaign. I'm going to vote for Menendez though I think he was guilty of the charges. It's killing me.

The Republicans could turn against Trump if they get a thumping in November.

In fact, that's the only thing that is likely to make that happen, given that they've been compliant to his craziness thus far.

[quote]Pay attention! New Jersey is in play!

No it's not. You're talking about one fucking poll. New Jersey is a blue state and while Menendez isn't an ideal candidate, the odds are something like 7 out of 8 that he will win.

[quote]R241, like passing the ACA?

Passing the ACA took 60 votes, not 67, and some creative maneuvering. Not a single Republican went along. Stop being stupid.

We are living in an awful time. Trump succeeds because he gets us to fight with each other, he pits "us" against "them." This entire Kavanaugh nomination process was planned and engineered to take place right before the midterms so that Trump could get his base riled up and interested in voting. If Justice Kennedy had not retired and given Trump the opportunity to name another justice, I believe the Democrats would have been able to take back both the house and the senate quite easily. But because of all this drama, Democrats will probably have to settle for taking back the just the house. Today it feels like the Senate hopes are slipping away.

Trump loves superlatives, so I will give him one -- he will go down as the worst president in the history of our country.

R290, not a thing has changed with respect to the Senate. The polls haven't shifted and the chances remain what they were a few weeks ago, at around 25 to 30%. Wringing your hands and getting all drama queeny is rather pointless and just makes you look silly.

I don’t think R290 is all drama queeny and silly. People are allowed to air their opinions that don’t agree with yours. They can be nervous or worried. We live in worrisome times. Stop attacking people who are just venting or feeling uncertain about the future. They’re fine.

Besides, you say polls haven’t changed in weeks. The poster is referring to Kennedy’s retirement, which was announced months ago, not weeks ago. The whole Kavanaugh debacle will have an effect

[quote]The poster is referring to Kennedy’s retirement, which was announced months ago

That's even sillier, then, R292, since the polls are better now than they were when Kennedy announced his retirement. And nobody knows just what effect the Kavanaugh debacle will have, at least partly because we still don't have an outcome. Republicans have been openly worried about the impact on their own base and their own chances for reelection.

[quote]Once again, we have only to thank that wretched cunt Kirsten Gillibrand and her pathetic, merry band of Pussy Avengers for making this situation possible.

I'm so freaking tired of this profane nonsense!

I guess it's ok to call all those women liars because you are a big fan of the grabber/groper, huh? You sound like a dim-witted Republican!

There IS NO MECHANISM to get rid of a Senator other than dying, not winning reelection, and quitting. Al Fraken QUIT! He cut and ran. Do you actually think an investigation wouldn't have brought out MORE women he grabbed and groped and tried to kiss against their will? That's incredibly naive, we were up to EIGHT when Franken FLED the senate! Don't give me that BULLSHIT that they were ALL Republicans and liars, that simply isn't true! Most of them were Democrats, and the ONLY person we should be mad at is AL FRANKEN for being a handsy nightmare around women at the wrong fucking #metoo moment!

Dems make a great case saying, "See? WE'RE NOT THEM!" and if Franken were still in office, we wouldn't really be much better than the other side. I sent money to Franken's campaigns, and I was disgusted by his ridiculous shenanigans with women. He ONLY had HIMSELF to blame, and Kirsten Gillibrand had nothing to do with Franken's career flame out. So end that bullshit!

Thank you, r294, that was well said.. This shit has got to end.

r294, The United States Congress, Senate or House, may expel a member on a 2/3 vote.

Who are these loony liberals who are still mentioning Franken? And going after Gillibrand? Jesus, move on already.

It's still pertinent in regards to Franken, r297. This is still part of #metoo.

tRump is still massively unpopular. His numbers are remarkably consistent -- consistently bad. In 70 years of polling no president has ever managed to do what Cheatolini has done: never achieve an approval rating above 50 percent. Nearly two years in office and a majority of the country has never approved of him.

That will be reflected in the results from November 6.

Oh, bullshit R294. There was a orchestrated campaign against Franken. Whether she likes it or not, Kirsten Gilibrand was part of it. Would more have come out? Who knows? Only Al Franken can answer that.

But, if Kirsten Gilibrand was soooo incensed and soooo disgusted by these disgusting men then why didn't her quest continue, and continue on, to the Republican side? I mean this was for the reputation of the Senate and to send a message to all men that this type of behavior won't be tolerated.

So... where is her outrage, (in fact, everyone's outrage) against Republican Blake Farenthold who paid (with tax payer money) $84K to settle a sexual harassment claim? He promised to resign. He eventually did but it wasn't easy. And, he promised to pay the money back. Well... that hasn't happened and it isn't going to happen.

Where are Republicans?

Where's Kirsten?

BUMP

NPR poll finds Democratic enthusiasm edge evaporates amid Kavanaugh confirmation battle

[quote]NPR poll finds Democratic enthusiasm edge evaporates amid Kavanaugh confirmation battle

Ya know... I don't what to believe when it is this close. Republican pundits are now saying that if Kavanaugh isn't appointed then Republicans will be wiped out during the midterm. Now, I'm seeing these depress the Democrat vote pieces...

WHO KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON?

I don't understand how it could suppress democrat turnout. If anything, it's made democrats more aware of how important the SCOTUS is.

At the same time the GOP is incensed that Democrats are "railroading" Kavanaugh with "fake smears". It works both ways.

Democrat enthusiasm/turnout is going to be sky-high regardless. Nobody disputes that. However, up until recently, GOP enthusiasm was down. Now if these polls are turning out to be correct, it could narrow the generic ballot number. The Dems are heavy favorites to take the House regardless, but if rural/exurb GOP turnout spikes it will likely spell doom for Heitkamp, Donnelly, Tester, maybe even McCaskill.

These are Fox News polls, but still... ND: Heitkamp 41, Cramer 53 IN: Donnelly 43, Braun 41 AZ: Sinema 47, McSally 45 MO: McCaskill 43, Hawley 43 TN: Blackburn 48, Bredesen 43

I'm all but ready to call Heitkamp finished. Hopefully knowing it's over will give her the freedom to vote NO on Kavanaugh. The Tennessee result is also what I expect. That state is NOT going to send a Democrat to the Senate. There are waaaaay too many assholes there for that to happen.

R306 Heitkamp is already toast. I don't even think voting for Kavanaugh will save her.

[quote]These are Fox News polls, but still... ND: Heitkamp 41, Cramer 53 IN: Donnelly 43, Braun 41 AZ: Sinema 47, McSally 45 MO: McCaskill 43, Hawley 43 TN: Blackburn 48, Bredesen 43

The Fox *Pollster* is normally a decent pollster. It's important to consider it separate from Fox NEWS.

The Fox Polling Group is actually composed of two polling organizations that work together -- a Democratic org & a Republican org. It's considered a fairly reliable pollster within the polling industry.

Those Fox polls are basically in line with the current trends.

Eg. - they show Donnelly with a small edge in Indiana -- which he has had in most other polls to date.

-they show Sinema with a narrow lead in Arizona -- also in line with other polling.

-and they show McCaskill tied in Missouri -- which is where the race has been for months.

-They also show Blackburn with a lead on Bredesen, which isn't a surprise since that race a) has been going back & forth for several months, and b) the fundamentals of Tennessee have become more conservative since the days when Bredesen was Governor.

-The only big change in the polls is the deteriorating number for Heitkamp in North Dakota. If that continues, it looks like she will be going down.

The enthusiasm gap issue might dissipate if Kavanaugh is confirmed.

Strict Constitutionalists will control 4 seats on the SC, while Roberts will be the swing vote. The pressure on him to vote with them will be enormous.

That sets the stage for the Ivy League lawsuit alleging discrimination against Asian students to reach the SC in 2 years. Bang- Affirmative Action at university is done.

Unless Kavanaugh is stopped, 70 years of precedent will be repealed, one by one.

The other edge of the sword is that a 51/49 vote against him will energize Republicans and prevent a takeover of the HoReps, leaving us with a majority Republican Congress.

[quote]So, where are ALL of these Mexicans, (that we are being overrun by according to Republicans) that can vote????

Where are they? Voting for Democrats you big dumb dumb.

There is NO way the Senate will flip, ain’t gonna happen, Lord it’s like the Hillary can’t lose nonsense, that’s why we lose. Just go vote.

I got a fundraiser letter from Dean Heller R Senate. I wrote back, I’m voting for ROSEN! and mailed it back to him.

Nevada is losing the Republican Senate holdover to make both of their Senate seats Democratic.

Arizona is losing one of its Republican seats. Plus, it's also losing its Republican Governor to Democratic challenger Dan Garcia.

Texas is losing one Republican Senate seat to Democrats, Beto.

LMAO, r315. Garcia is getting curbstomped. That's why I always laugh when people scream that Sinema isn't being liberal enough. We HAVE a liberal running in the Governor's race here in AZ, and well, it isn't pretty.

David Garcia is 12 points behind Ducey. No way will a democrat be governor of Arizona it seems. And his first name is David and not Dan.

R315 you’re fucking clueless.

Sep 18, 2018) TargetSmart polling has them in a heat battle with Garcia at 49% and Ducey at 48% [bold]Garcia +1[/bold]

*Suffok and Fox News have Garcia losing by double digits (both polling at 12% and 18% among their base)

* When you remove Suffok and Fox New Ducey's advantage drops from 8-9% to 4 %.

Link one:

Link 2: Look under updates

R315 isn't clueless. Nevada and Arizona, and Texas are in play.

But, and I am the annoying poster tonight.

We need to be canvassing, donating, phone banking, texting, sending postcards to voters to get them to the polls.

Nothing is written. If you aren't doing anything but complaining... well, yeah we will lose.

Emerson has [bold]Ducey at +4[/bold]

CNN and SSRS Polling have [bold]Ducey at +3[/bold]

NBC and Marist Polling have [bold]Ducey at +8 [/bold]

Target Polling have [bold]Garcia at +1[/bold]

Both Suffolk and Fox News are extremely bias.

If the Democrats do not take back the Us Congress, Social Security and health care will be gutted. This will effect all Americans. Also, this will effect mom and pop restaurants and other community businesses.

Register to VOTE NOW.

VOTE DEMOCRAT Down Ballot, BLue Wave.

Get all the information now, ahead of time, so you know how to vote. Do not wait until the last minute to decide how you are going to vote.

At this point the question becomes will the House flip?

+10 to +2 in 2 weeks isn’t good.

There is a reason why Trump is holding those rally's in those locations. He even has been caught saying, if you do not vote than I will be impeached. Of course, he took the time to announce that he and the North Korea Dictator are "IN LOVE."

I hope people will be more reflected about Trump's behavior and the state of our Democracy this time around.

The House will flip for sure.

Nothing is for sure. Nothing is written. We must do the work and we must vote. Do not be complacent.

[quote]Strict Constitutionalists will control 4 seats on the SC, while Roberts will be the swing vote

If Chief Justice Roberts is now considered the swing vote, we're utterly fucked. And not the good kind either.

I'm shocked by the North Dakota numbers. The Fox poll basically confirms the numbers from the local ND NBC affiliate earlier this week. Heidi is a fantastic fit for North Dakota but it's clearly tilted far to the right in the past 6 years. Yikes.

I'm still bullish on Bredesen in Tennessee. RCP shows 6 polls since July and he's lead in all of them but the two Fox polls and Gravis, which is garbage. But it's Tennessee and I can easily see Blackburn winning too.

In Arizona, Sinema has had the lead in 6 of the last 8 polls. She's lead in all of them other than the small bounce McSally had after her primary win honeymoon. I thought McSally running her gross ads painting Sinema as anti-war with her pink tutu would knock her down but she's still ahead.

We really need to flip Arizona and Nevada at minimum if Heidi is going down in defeat. Tennessee and Texas would be excellent too but I have my doubts about those two.

R314 your gay ass better get to work!

I think we have the House for sure! We also have a shot at the Senate. Just get out and vote!

R330, that's what people said about HRC too. Nothing is for sure in politics. The polls have drifted slightly towards the right since the Kavanaugh mess.

Yeah, it’s really naive and reckless to say we have the House for sure. It’s also erroneous

I posted above. Why would Dean Heller R Nevada be sending me a fundraising letter. I’m a Democrat. Doesn’t his campaign know that? He must be desperate. I pray he loses!!!

Early ballots are sent out in most parts of Arizona on the 10th. In some areas 80 per cent of the voters use them. So, in reality the election is next week in Maricopa County.

Republicans have gained in our Senate forecast.

Elsewhere, it’s less clear.

[quote] Both Suffolk and Fox News are extremely bias

Wtf is wrong with you assholes who don’t used the word “bias” properly?

I hold a bias

I am biasED.

That pollster is biasED.

When someone shows bias, they are biasED.

Learn the difference between the use of bias and biased

I had my hopes up before. I'm not very optimistic.

Zwe still have a month. Keep working.

It was always unlikely. Just pray that Dems get the House.

In 2020 the Dems will have a better shot at the Senate.

Yes, r339. Even if we can just keep it close, the 2020 map sets up the Democratic party very nicely. Also,and this is cold comfort, but likely by 2020 the Kavanaugh court will be issuing some very controversial decisions (Roe, Affirmative Action, marriage equality) that will REALLY gin up Democrat turnout.

Today's (10/4/18) House of Representatives forecast looks incredible for Democrats. They have a 3 in 4 chance to take the house. Meaning 75% or above to take the House:

The Senate Forecast is another story for the reason that Dems are defending more seats than Republicans. However, the devil is in the details. While Democrats have never had more than a 3 in 9 chance (they are @ 2 in 9 currently) there are two toss ups in the race (not counting Tennessee or Texas) and one of those toss ups is in Nevada where they just elected a Democratic Senator and voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election. Meaning The Dems only have to hold all of their current seats and pick up Nevada and Arizona to take the majority in the Senate.

The Southwest is the key.

If Dems lose one seat, which can also be likely, they will need to pick up three seats in order to take the Senate. Nevada, Arizona, and one other in order to be at 51 and take the majority.

[quote]Today's (10/4/18) House of Representatives forecast looks incredible for Democrats. They have a 3 in 4 chance to take the house.

Roughly where they had Hillary the morning of the election.

In other words, take nothing for granted - VOTE and get every Democrat you know to VOTE.

Menendez will likely win just because people realize what is at stake.

But it's another Hillary situation.

Unpopular AF, he was cleared of the charges on what appears to be a technicality, and decides it's still his turn to be Senator.

In real world terms that means that we now need to spend large sums of money in both NYC and Philadelphia markets to ensure that his opponent, who has huge cash, doesn't overwhelm the unpopular Menendez and win.

And there's still a chance he will: lots of suburban Republican women who are feeling slightly guilty about voting out middle of the road Republicans like Leonard Lance may split the vote since they believe Menendez is sleazy.

What's frustrating is that there is no shortage of popular young Democrats in NJ-- Steven Fulop, the mayor of Jersey City, for instance.

So Menendez has taken what should be a certain win for us and turned it into a potential fail and cost us lots of money in the process, money that could be better spent elsewhere.

Take nothing for granted.

I like to canvass. If you want to do something on your own time, try writing postcards to voters reminding them to vote.

When we vote we win. Bonus! Glitter pens for extra flavor.

^^Menendez also suffers terribly by comparison to his fellow NJ Senator, Corey Booker, who is very popular in the state (even with white suburbanites) and has a high national profile as well. And Menendez is supposed to be the senior Senator.

[quote] Roughly where they had Hillary the morning of the election. In other words, take nothing for granted - VOTE and get every Democrat you know to VOTE.

R343, but the polls were not wrong about Hillary, she beat Trump in the popular vote. The electoral college plays no part in the mid-term elections.

[quote]The other edge of the sword is that a 51/49 vote against him will energize Republicans and prevent a takeover of the HoReps, leaving us with a majority Republican Congress.

This.Is.Not.Happening. Not this year. The House will go blue, even if by a smaller than expected margin.

The Senate is much tougher to call. Heitkamp will likely lose; but this could very well be countered by Beto eeking out a win in TX. The latter alone would buoy the Dems greatly.

r328 Roberts has been functioning as a swing vote on SCOTUS since he was seated. Many justices moderate their stance once they are seated, in order to maintain a non-partisan legacy. I don't expect this of Kavanaugh, but do have mild hopes for Gorsuch.

Stop R347

Just stop with the BS, as it does no one any good for us to play "Let's Make Up The Facts"

The "polls" had HIllary winning the electoral vote.

If you remember, until the next day, the electoral college was her great friend, providing her with a great Blue Wall and an automatic head start in the electoral vote.

The "polls" were not looking at the entire nation as a whole. What would be the point since the election is decided by the electoral college.

[quote]but the polls were not wrong about Hillary, she beat Trump in the popular vote. The electoral college plays no part in the mid-term elections.

Five Thirty Eight framed their prediction as "Who will win the presidency" -- not who will get the most popular votes.

I see we have two GOP plants trying to discourage Democrats.

The Dems are winning the house. There is no question about it. The Senate is where Dems are trying to challenge.

The only obstacle I see is that Dems are ignoring the Southwest again, the young and Latino vote specifically, despite the incremental gains they have achieved in the Southwest with each election in 1992. Nevada and Arizona are going to give Dems two new seats in the Senate and they might even give them a new governorship in Arizona.

If Beto (Texas), Sinema (Arizona), and Rosen (Nevada) win their respective races. It's game over for Republicans.

since 1992*

[quote]Both Suffolk and Fox News are extremely bias

As I mentioned above, the Fox *POLL* is different from Fox *NEWS*.

The Fox Pollster is a separate organization from Fox News. The Fox Poll is considered a decent pollster in the polling industry.

The Fox Polling Company is actually an amalgam of two different pollsters -- a Democratic Polling Company & a Republican Polling Company.

We won’t win the senate. Heidkamp, Mccaskill, Donnelly - all who vote no on Kavanaugh will lose & even if they vote yes they might lose. Manchin might turn GOP if it looks like Democrats are picking up seats

I pray the house goes blue. That will at least be something in this shitshow of a presidency. I wish McConnell would drop dead in the middle of his showboating.

I’m amazed at how many people are staunch Trump supporters where I am and many are women. This is one of the richest, most educated parts of the country. But propaganda is very powerful. They turned against Hillary for no damn reason at all. She did nothing illegal. She’s been investigated over & over again and nothing is ever found. The GOP has convinced people that Hillary is never found guilty because she’s got the Democrats, the Deep State, Wall Street, General Zod and Mayor McCheese protecting her. It doesn’t occur to these people that she’s never found guilty because she’s innocent.

I’m disgusted by everyone who bought into the Hillary garbage, but I reserve my deepest contempt for women who hate her. Hillary has always been a champion of women & children and a female voting against her is a cement headed fool.

I remember walking out of the polling place in 2016. It was a lovely warm fall afternoon and I was so relieved that the horrr filled Trump campaign would be over once and for all. But my husband said, “I’m afraid he’ll win.” I puked when he got the electoral college but I knew something was wrong. I don’t believe he won the electoral college at all. I believe votes were changed.

Whatever. I just hope they can’t change votes this time around. I know my senators will remain democratic but I’ve got a tea party asshole congressman and his opponent is weak. I just hope the weather is good on Election Day and that Republicans don’t realize it’s Election Day til 9pm.

[quote] As I mentioned above, the Fox *POLL* is different from Fox *NEWS*.The Fox Pollster is a separate organization from Fox News. The Fox Poll is considered a decent pollster in the polling industry.

Yeah no. Fox News as in Fox News.

IF it was helping the GOP whip up their base, they would wait to vote. The poll numbers are not clear, so they are rushing to vote. Remember, McConnell wanted to hold the vote last week. They are afraid of Trump and what he will say at the rallies, also.

R355, the poll is conducted for the Fox News network, but it is not conducted by Fox News themselves.

It is conducted by a separate entity -- it is composed of a Democratic pollster & a Republican pollster.

It is conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).

Do not give up, CALL CALL CALL!

Tell your US Senators to VOTE NO, against Kavanaugh!

I'm pleasantly surprised that Montana has a democratic Senator for some reason I had that state down as solid Republican. Are it's demographics changing as they appear to be in Arizona and Virginia?

R359, please see my post about Montana's voting history at R189.

I will second postcards to voters. It's easy, it's fun and you can do it in your spare time. It is a great reminder to Vote.

Also, remind your neighbors if you have early or write in voting. Many people aren't aware there are options.

Don't stop calling. Even if it is VM. The fuckers need to know they will be held to account for their treachery.

[quote]Heidkamp, Mccaskill, Donnelly - all who vote no on Kavanaugh will lose

You don't have the data to back up that claim.

[R362] What data are you talking about? The vote has not taking place yet.

R363, it's called surveys and polling bitch.

Those Senators have come out and said they are VOTING NO. Democrats are registering to vote, and intending to vote for them, this is in the polling data.

Ok. We’ll see on Election Day if mccaskill, Donnelly & Heidkamp win, R365. Polls or no polls.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 45% (+2) Republicans 43%

IBD/TIPP 9/27-10/3

Registered Republicans, who do not focused on overturning Roe v Wade, do not like Kavanaugh, based on his performance alone. They will not show up to vote in the midterms. Looks like, high democrat turn out is going to be the deciding factor.

I follow Nevada politics pretty closely, I really think the Dem will win there. Heller is an idiot.

You're full of shit, r351. Garcia IS NOT GOING TO WIN in Arizona. He's down double digits and falling. There's a reason Sinema won't go near him. And even if Beto wins (highly unlikely), there are still far better odds that Heitkamp won't be the only Dem going down. Anyone who thinks that Donnelly, McCaskill and Tester are out of the woods is insane. The ONLY good thing about Kavanaugh being approved is that GOP anger/voter intensity will likely go down, while DEMs will only get angrier and angrier.

I'm not worried about the House. The GOP has already triaged (cut off funds) for almost enough Representatives to get us a good chunk of the way there. If the Dems still can't manage to win the House under these circumstances, they need to take a good hard look at their viability in the Trump era.

Now, I would have thought that women would be burning down houses because of the way that Lindsey Graham, Charles Grassley, and did they see Orrin Hatch today, have been speaking to them...

"Beto O'Rourke on possible endorsement from Obama: "I don't think we're interested.""

GOOD! Now, I actually think that this will play well in Texas!

[quote]The vote has not taking place yet.

Which means that you're full of shit when you insist that those three candidates will lose.

[quote]k. We’ll see on Election Day if mccaskill, Donnelly & Heidkamp win, R365. Polls or no polls.

Your words might have more impact if you actually knew how to spell these names. Just saying.... Donnelly is doing just fine; McCaskill is in a dead heat that can go either way. Heitkamp is clearly in trouble.

[quote]McCaskill is in a dead heat that can go either way.

Wasn't she in the same position during her last election but broke out in the final days?

I don't think so, R374. That sounds more like her 2006 election, which was a nailbiter. Her 2012 election was against Todd Akin, he of "legitimate rape" fame and she beat him easily.

There were some close polls between McCaskill & Akin at this time in 2012, but some of them showed her breaking away from Akin.

And she ended up winning by such a large margin that some of the networks were able to call the race for her the moment the polls closed on Election Night,

I have a feeling Claire and Heidi are goners - because they're women. Joe, Jon, Jethro, and Hillbilly Joe will probably hold on.

Claire can make it if St.Louis and Kansas City get off their asses and get to the polls. Same with Donnelly and Indy/the college towns. That's an advantage that they have over Manchin and Heitkamp - there's no real liberal/non-white base in WV or ND. (Well there are some Native Americans in ND, but nowhere near enough to swing an election).

Manchin's an institution in West Virginia and his opponent hasn't been able to gain any traction against him so far. Anything can happen, of course, but that one's "likely Democrat." Heitkamp is pretty much the only one who's in serious trouble. Most of the rest of these could go either way.

North dakota and south dakota should just be one state - ame with north carolina and south carolina . New mexico should merge with nevada and arizona. Lots of space, few people, they don't deserve all those senate votes. California and New York should have at least 10 senators each.

If there is a draw or the Dems only lose 1 or 2 seats, even if they don't retake the Senate, it WILL BE a big victory. Remember that not too long ago it seemed like at least 6 seats would be goners and other 3 in play.

Donate to Heidi!

Thank you [R360] I'm still cautiously optimistic there is a decent chance that Tennesse will elect a democratic Senator

No sign that the Democrats will stay home, which is what doomed them in both the 2010 and 2014 midterms.

McCaskill's won twice in Missouri and both times she faced a tough race. Indiana is red, but Donnelly is popular. Tester is to the left of most of Montana, but Montana's like Alaska in that it's a reddish state because its rural, but the individual matters. Tester's liked and he's the real deal as a Montanan. Voters trust him. Manchin is very, very good at reading his state.

Nelson down in Florida looks like he's gotten a second wind from Gillum's popularity.

Heitkamp's in trouble, but it's a small state and a good GOTV effort and skillful campaigning could change things around, but if the Democrats only lose one state with this kind of map, it's a good thing. I'd prefer it if she weren't behind, but it's not over 'til it's over.

Meanwhile, we have a good shot at picking up AZ and NV. If Heitkamp loses, then we need one more seat--Tennessee and Texas are both possibilities.

The House continues to look good.

[quote]New Mexico should merge with Nevada and Arizona. Lots of space, few people, they don't deserve all those senate votes.

New Mexico has 2 Democratic Senators Tom Udall and hot papi Martin Heinrich. Why would we give up those two seats?

Nevada has a Democratic Senator and is about to send their Republican Senator packing. Nevada ain't looking back.

Arizona is going to elect a Democrat to the Senate. There will be 5 Democratic Senators in those three states when all is said and done.

R380

[quote]McCaskill's won twice in Missouri and both times she faced a tough race.

She rode the 2006 blue wave that got her elected but that was more when Missouri was a swingish state. Historically, Missouri has almost always voted for the person who went on to become president. Obama nearly won it in 2008. But it took a hard turn to the right in 2012. Claire seemed like she was finished in 2012 too but then she got her chosen candidate, Todd "Legitimate Rape" Akin.

She went on to win comfortably and carried a lot of rural counties she otherwise would've lost if she ran against a more credible candidate. Her opponent this year, Josh Hawley, is definitely more credible but he has issues too -- particularly filing a lawsuit to prevent insurance companies from covering preexisting conditions. Ironically it may end being the blue wave again that carries her over the finish line again this year.

Claire is the antithesis of Heidi Heitkamp. Heidi refuses to hammer her opponent on the air and is relying on SuperPacs to do it for her because she wants to preserve her "North Dakota nice" image, but Claire DELIGHTS in going negative.

Like others, I'm not optimistic, but I desperately hope that smug prick Cruz loses & Beto seems like the kind of guy we need now. I hope that the youth vote is very energized and gets out there & votes, but honestly, who knows

Quinnipiac Poll: Generic Ballot show Dems’ lead on Repubs has shrunk to only 1 point.

[quote]Nelson down in Florida looks like he's gotten a second wind from Gillum's popularity.

Not anymore. All of the recent polls have him up by a point or two. The RCP average is Nelson +2.4.

Emerson Poll: Generic Ballot shows Dem's lead on Repubs is at +8. That's why you look at the aggregate, not individual polls.

[quote]Not anymore. All of the recent polls have him up by a point or two. The RCP average is Nelson +2.4.

That's still an improvement from the position Nelson was in during the Summer.

Nelson is still in a close race, but his polling position has improved from where it was several month ago.

DAMN! They ain't playin'

Susan Collins’s Enraging Speech Led Donors to Crash a Site Raising Money for Her Opponent

Senator Susan Collins of Maine is no longer undecided. In a speech from the Senate floor on Friday afternoon, the GOP senator said that she found Dr. Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony about her alleged assault by Brett Kavanaugh compelling, but that she would still be voting “yes” on Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination. Collins’s declaration incensed so many that a website crowdsourcing funds for her Democratic opponent crashed because it was inundated with donations.

Susan’s last few shaking episodes before we send her into retirement.

Claire is 8 points down, unfortunately.

Yeah the Kav mess is really hurting her

R394, that poll is from a pro-Hawley SuperPAC called Missouri Rising Action.

The non-partisan pollsters show the race is close.

I think a lot of the GOP surge is because of Kavanaugh--once he's on the bench, you'll see some of that enthusiasm recede and the poll numbers readjust.

It would help to emphasize Trump's fraud--the NYT story hasn't gotten nearly enough play.

Of course, the whole thing could change if Millennials actually bothered to vote.

epublicans have been favored to keep the Senate all along. But their position has improved quite a bit over the last week in all three versions of our model. In our Classic Senate forecast, for example, Republicans are now 77 percent favorites to hold the chamber, up from 68 percent before last week’s hearings.

A lot of this comes down to Heitkamp and North Dakota, where Republican Kevin Cramer is now a 2-to-1 favorite despite the traditionally strong performance of opposition-party incumbents in potential wave elections. Heitkamp’s problems might well be Kavanaugh related — she hasn’t yet been clear about how she’ll vote, but polls show a clear majority of North Dakotans favoring Kavanaugh’s confirmation. At the same time, Manchin’s numbers have held up well in West Virginia despite his having taken a similarly ambiguous stance on Kavanaugh, and some Democrats who have said they’d vote against Kavanaugh, such as Missouri’s Claire McCaskill and Indiana’s Joe Donnelly, have had decent polling numbers lately. I’m inclined toward the obvious-seeming conclusion that Kavanaugh has hurt Heitkamp, but it isn’t totally cut-and-dried.

One other thing the forecasts won’t tell you is whether changes in the topline numbers reflect shifts in voter preferences or instead changes in voter propensity to turn out. If the GOP position on the generic ballot has improved by half a point over the last week, for instance, that could be because their voters are closing the enthusiasm gap or it could be for some other reason.

But one hint comes from polls that publish both registered- and likely-voter results; the difference between these numbers is a good measure of the enthusiasm gap or turnout gap. Currently, we’re showing that likely voter polls are only about 0.4 percentage better for Republicans than registered-voter polls. That’s much smaller than the typical gap between likely- and registered-voter polls, which usually favors Republicans by anywhere from 1 to 6 percentage points in midterm years, reflecting that Democrats tend to rely on minority and young voters who don’t always turn out at the midterms. It is, however, slightly improved for Republicans from the numbers we were seeing earlier this year, when there wasn’t any gap at all on average between registered- and likely-voter polls. To complicate matters, Republicans are generally doing worse in district-level polls than you’d expect them to do in generic ballot polls, even though district polls are almost always conducted among likely voters. One possibility is that Kavanaugh is helping with Republican base turnout, but also hurting the GOP among swing voters with a high propensity to turn out, such as suburban women.

Overall, I’m inclined to conclude there’s actually something there for Republicans — that their position has genuinely improved from where it was a week ago (although, not necessarily as compared to where it was a month ago). But I’m also wary of the idea that this is necessarily a turning point, since it wouldn’t take much — a couple of good generic ballot polls for Democrats, plus a handful of good state-level results in places like North Dakota — to reverse the GOP gains in our forecast. There is truth in the idea that Republicans have had a decent week of polling, but it can also be exaggerated by cherry-picking data that’s consistent with a particular narrative.

Finally, it should go without saying that this is still a dynamic situation, and it doesn’t necessarily follow that the party that “wins” the battle over Kavanaugh will benefit electorally. The opposite could prove true. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted earlier this week found that more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was confirmed — but also, more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was not confirmed. Whichever party doesn’t get its way on Kavanaugh will have more reason to feel aggrieved — and perhaps more motivation to turn out to vote.

[quote]I think a lot of the GOP surge is because of Kavanaugh--

Call me whatever, but I really don't think that there is a Republican surge. What we're witnessing is loads of Republican donor money being spent everywhere to control the narrative. I mean... how are Republican women operatives being planted on a "supposed" CNN panel?

This will all come down to the voting booths. And, while it is only my gut feeling, I don't feel that women are not on board with the Republicans.

The latest polls in all the battleground states show that NO, the Democrats will not take the Senate because Republicans will hold Texas and Tennessee.

It shows the Democrats will match Republicans and take 50 seats to the Republicans' 50 with impressive gains in deep-red states like Montana and Arizona.

But with President Toadstool Penis in the White House, it means Mike Ponce will get to break all the ties and vote for Republican leadership.

The latest polls in all the battleground states show that NO, the Democrats will not take the Senate because Republicans will hold Texas and Tennessee.

It's still a month away & I'm not counting Beto out yet!

As far as I know, there are no really recent polls in Texas. The last one was around two weeks ago. That said, clearly, Beto remains a long shot, as does control of the Senate.

I haven't seen any new Senate polling released today.

Harry Enten was commenting on this earlier.

As for Texas, I think it will be difficult for the Dems to win there. The Dems haven't won a statewide race in 2 decades. Ann Richards was the last Democratic Governor before she lost to Bush.

And the legendary Lloyd Bentsen was the last Democrat to win a Senate seat:

Texas may be a pipe dream, but liberls should target low population states like Wyoming, and the Dakotas and move there to try and make those states purple.

You only need a few percent of Repug women to decide not to vote (I doubt any would vote Dem) to make a difference in some Senate races. If there's heavier than usual Dem turnout, it's doable.

But the problem as always is that we can never accurately gauge how much hate will affect the elections. A lot of white Repug women will vote for a guy who literally thinks they should be raped with impunity just because their hate for Dems, minorities, etc. outweighs their own sense of self preservation.

I think Beto might lose by as much as 6 points. As the election nears, I think lackadaisical republicans will notice how close the polls are and will say, “I’ve gotta make sure to vote.” There are just too many republicans in TX.

As far as Wyoming & the Dakotas, there’s a reason why so few people live there. There are no jobs, the weather sucks and it’s isolating. And democrats tend not to work on pipelines.

Pipelines, btw, are a target for evangelicals. In the 1970s, evangelicals discovered what a treasure trove existed for them in Alaska. Pipeline workers came from all over the US. They were far from home and back then, keeping in touch was via snail mail or expensive long distance phone calls. They were lonely and felt isolated. The evangelicals pounced. Come to our church, we’re friendly people. We have bible study classes with young men & women, we put on plays, we’d really like to see you there. Young female church members were to be inviting & flirtatious with all the young men. It worked.

Driving to the store through my suburban neighborhood in Plano, I saw exactly one Cruz sign, and at least six Beto.

I hate to be a jerk, r409, but there's a political saying that goes something like "if only roadside signs could vote"...

Question for the DL political scholars. If the Senate splits 50-50, with pickups in NV and AZ as well as Heitkamp losing, what happens with the majority leadership? Do they split the leadership duties and committee assignments? Or since Pence is the tie breaker (and could theoretically break the tie a leadership bid between McTurtle and Schumer) does the leadership stay with the GOP? TIA

That's a great question, r411. Back 15 or so years ago, the Senate was evenly divided so they decided to split all the committees 50/50, while technically keeping the GOP in charge of leadership due to the VP thing. However, that was a "gentleman's agreement", nothing specific in the rules, and with as nasty as things have gotten who the fuck knows what would happen.

Yeah, I wouldn't count on any gentlemen's agreement with Mitch McConnell around.

Republican white women tell themselves lies like "she deserved it." to get around the whole support-a-rapist thing. A lot of them are also jealous and resentful of women who aren't just stay-at-home moms or Amway saleswomen. They justify their own lack of wherewithal by undermining and attacking other women. (Sneers about the uncontrollable children of working mothers is a tried-and-true classic that continues.)

Too many women are taught that other women are their competition and that a straight white male is some sort of amazing prize to be gained if they play their cards right. They don't have the same awareness that blacks do that the decks are stacked against them as a group and that, as a group, they'd be better off working together to even the odds. Too many wanna -be queen bees out there.

I would be overjoyed to see Dem take the house and at least deadlock the Senate.

[quote] Republican white women tell themselves lies like "she deserved it." to get around the whole support-a-rapist thing.

No they tell themselves — and everyone else — that Kavanaugh is a good man being smeared by evil leftists and “DOCTOR” Ford is lying. She has a PhD. Coming from a white trash deploravle family, I can tell you that conservative women hate her for having a PhD in psychology (the only thing they would consider worse would be a PhD in Social Work) and they hate that she insists on being called doctor when she’s not an MD.

Blasey Ford grew up in that horrible land of East Coast wine sipping, BMW driving, Brie eating damn libruls. Brett Kavanaugh was smart enough to play along with the “elites” but become a real conservative hero, and for that he was attacked by one of the baby voiced, demon librul wimmin.

Praise Jeebus, good won over evil and the blonde harlot was vanquished. God is on our side! The evangelical prayer warriors and the catholic rosary chanters were victorious.

(And - in all seriousness this time - Avenatti didn’t help)

please, God, just pimp slap those lying hypocrites just ONCE.

The Republicans made a grave mistake in confirming Kavanaugh. They no longer have an issue to rally their base around as they've delivered most everything to them. All they can do is preserve, which is not a big vote getter. Meanwhile, they've pissed off white women, a demographic they can't easily suppress at the polls. Sure, there are a lot of self hating white women, but all you need are a few GOP and Independent women to flip in key races to either make it 50/50 or take the senate outright. When that happens, the Republicans will panic and it will be glorious to watch.

Even during the 2006 blue wave, white women narrowly voted for Republican candidates. If we're relying on white women to save the day we're utterly screwed.

And yet the narrowing of their margin made the blue wave happen, r418. For all those who want to blame white people for everything, what do you think this country's political system would look like if white America voted as monolithically as black America? Hint: Barack Obama would still be an Illinois state senator.

White women voted for Trump. Enough said.

Republicans billionaire donors want to have control of the Us Supreme Court with Brett Kavanaugh, and keep control of the senate. They are now dumping unlimited fund to keep control of the senate.

To stop them, just VOTE for the DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE.

Also, register to vote, know where and how you are going to vote, study all the other issues. VOTE Progressive Democratic policy in when you can. STUDY NOW>

VOTE all elected Republicans OUT OF OFFICE.

No, whites now feel under attack and believe poor Brett will be impeached and mean old Dems will take their rights away day after day if they’re put into power. This has galvanized Republicans BIG TIME. They feel threatened. White males are in the chopping block. “So sad.”

We're nearing the end of voter registration if we haven't passed it in most places, r421. But HELL FUCKING YEAH to everything else you've said. I said on another board that this was the most important election of our lifetimes and I got jumped by some elders about Watergate, hippies, blah blah blah. I stand by what I said.

If the GOP wins in November, it means this country agrees with/accepts what Trump is doing. That simply cannot fucking happen.

SOROS

FAKE RAPE

DR FORD IS A DEMOCRATIC PLANT!!!

SOROS

What if it's your husband or son who was accused of rape is the platform the GOP is running on now to woo women. Really.

What if you spent all this money sending your son to expensive private schools, and he is still a dumb, fucking asshole? This is not just a warning for Kavanaugh's mother. What about Squi? What about Tobin?

DL is now full of extremists, sad. Dr. Fraud and her non evidence are jokes in most sane people's eyes just so you know.

LOL Boris R427!! You have to make an effort!

The gender gap has grown. More white women believe Ford than believe Kavanaugh. White men, on the other hand, rallied big around frat-bro Bratt. More to the point, white women (thanks mostly to older low-education women) supported Trump during the election. That's no longer true--Trump's been under 50 percent with white women for a while. Indeed, the only group of white women still supporting him big time are low-education holy rollers.

*NEW SENATE POLLS*

CBS News/You Gov

CRUZ (R) ahead by 6 points in TEXAS

SINEMA (D) ahead by 3 points in ARIZONA

BLACKBURN (R) ahead by 8 points in TENNESSEE

MENENDEZ (D) ahead by 10 points in NEW JERSEY

**

Poll conducted between between October 2–5, 2018.

Meanwhile, R427, out here in the real world, more people believe Dr. Ford than believe Kavanaugh. Perhaps you can join us here someday?

How did they conduct this poll? I have a feeling these polls are based on calling landlines and the only people who answer unknown numbers on landlines are old people bored out of their heads.

Today I donated to Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Claire McCaskill (MO), Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), Jacky Rosen (NV).

Let’s do this!

R432, You Gov is an online polling company.

The polls interviewed registered voters in Texas & Arizona.

Not sure if the respondents in New Jersey or Tennessee were registered.

I'm just reading the polling details now.

But these new CBS/ You Gov polls are basically in line with where other polls are heading this week.

We can't know the future, whatever happens we must keep fighting the evil of the Republican party.

[quote]I have a feeling these polls are based on calling landlines

That hasn't been true for several years now.

I picked up my landland but I refused to take the polls.

Most polling companies today have an aggregate sample of both landlines and cellphones.

It's very rare for a polling company to only call landlines, unless it's a small pollster or one without much credibility in the polling industry.

Man that Blackburn data is depressing r430, Bredesen had been polling well.

The Billionaires GOP donors wanted Kavanaugh, on the US Supreme Court. Now, they are dumping a ton of money into the senate races. The Republicans Superpacs have a phone system to call registered republicans to tell the how to vote, like the Heritage Foundation. Then, there are mailers.

R439, yes, Bredesen had been holding up in the polls until recently.

But there have now been 2 or 3 polls in the past week showing him down.

It was always going to be a challenge for the Dems to win Tennessee, even with a candidate of Bredesen's caliber.

TN has moved to the right in the days since Bredesen was Governor.

It votes Republican in Presidential elections in much larger numbers today than it did a couple of decades ago.

And the Dems haven't won a Senate seat since Al Gore.

So it's not going to be easy for Bredesen.

Registered Democrats tend not to vote in the mid-terms. Though, I think they will this time ; they will show up and VOTE.

In any case;

Registered to Vote (double check).

Prepare and Plan to Vote (how, where, etc)

Study, make sure you know all the elected offices, judges and intiatices and VOTE DEMOCRATIC, DOWN BALLOT.

VOTE VOTE VOTE

If we lose, the Republicans will gut Social Security and the Affordable Care Act and other health programs.

WE HAVE TO WIN.

To WIN, WE NEED YOU PREPARED and KNOWLEDGEABLE too.

VOTE VOTE VOTE

Prepare to celebrate the House, but really no way the Senate will flip after the Kav horror.

R441

Any insight on the competitive House races?

R444, the Democrats have about a 75% chance of winning the House, although that's down from 80% last week.

They are projected to pick up 33 seats (they need 23), but many of the House races are close and are difficult for forecasters to project.

The Dems have targeted a lot of GOP seats, but they aren't leading in quite as many right now as they hoped.

Still, the Dems have the edge so far.

Who is this OCD tard who is screaming VOTE VOTE VOTE all over Datalounge pokitical threads? Bitch, if we werent going to vote we wouldn’t be in these threads. You’re screaming at the choir and we’re sick of it.. We’re registered. & we’ve been ready to vote for 2 years. Go spam Twitter with your repetitive hysterical screaming

I don't think so

HOLY SHIT! IT FINALLY HAPPENED!

TAYLOR SWIFT slammed Republican Tennessee Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn for her anti-gay policy stances

[quote]It shows the Democrats will match Republicans and take 50 seats to the Republicans' 50 with impressive gains in deep-red states like Montana and Arizona.

It will only take for one of those GOP Senators to be indicted, which looks like a reality more and more, and then the Dems are back with a chance to take both parts of congress.

Thanks r445, aka “Pole Troll”😘

You’re the best insider we have now.

I think it’s down to 27 competitive seats.

That’s razor thin.

Can you start a thread? I’d like to hear your daily thoughts.

We can flip, if you vote democratic.

Participate in voting activities and canvassing, etc.

Make sure you are registered tomorrow.

Plan to vote

VOTE

Max Boot is on "Morning Joe" right now...

You have staunch conservatives begging everyone to vote Democrat now. We'll see...

[quote]I think it’s down to 27 competitive seats.

No. It's still in the 30s.

Nate Silver:

With a generic ballot lead of D+7 or so, it's very possible for polls to be about right overall, but for Dems to lose the House because the GOP ekes out wins in lots of the tossup districts. Once you get up to D+9 or so, the dam breaks and GOP would need a systematic polling error.

We have the D's generic ballot/popular vote lead trending toward +7.5 or so. So while the topline numbers in our House forecast haven't changed much, we've crossed an important conceptual threshold where the eke-it-one-district-at-a-time scenario is back on the table for the GOP.

Likely voters who live in 69 battleground House districts across the country narrowly prefer Democratic candidates, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School survey, a potentially worrying sign for Republicans given that the overwhelming percentage of these districts are currently in GOP hands.

The survey of 2,672 likely voters shows that likely voters in these districts favor Democrats by a slight margin: 50 percent prefer the Democratic nominee and 46 percent prefer the Republican. By way of comparison, in 2016 these same districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic ones by 15 percentage points, 56 percent to 41 percent.

The house is looking like it's going Dem, but by a slim margin.

The bad news is the Senate -- there the Dems may actually lose seats -- possibly up to two, making the Senate even more of a Trump rubber stamp, which is most depressing when it comes to confirming judges.

If you live in Maine, btw, please do everything you can to throw your own Cruella De Vil out of the Senate.

Thank you r446, I was going to post the same thing.

Ugh, in my district, which was democratic until 2015, the democrat is down by 10 points. In all polls he loses, with the lowest margin being 7%. Most polls have the gop winning by 10-11 points.

My district was republican but went democratic in 2003, which I believe was in response to the Iraq war and general unhappiness with Bush.

The district went very narrowly for Obama in 2008 & 2012, but voted for Trump by 9 points in 2016. Trump voters here are very motivated & the democratic candidate is weak and only claimed residency in the district a year ago. I was shocked that such a poor candidate was chosen, but all the contenders in the democratic primary were weak and voters chose this candidate we’re stuck with. If the party could have found someone with even some kind of connection to the area — grew up here, has even 1% charisma — we might have won.

Of the candidates in the democratic primary, the female candidate, who was local, has a well known name and has held office in the town, came in dead last. That’s how popular democratic female candidates are here. The most qualified candidate lost and she happened to be female & came in last in a crew of male candidates no one ever heard of before.

Oh well, at least my senators are democratic.

But I have to say I’m surprised at how many Trumpsters there are, and how motivated they are. People who voted democratic for a large part of the 21st century are now rabid Trumpsters. I have to put it down to celebrity. Those people watched The Apprentice and thought it was real.

In my District, the Democrat is 7 points ahead of Barbara Comstock. Hope it holds. I think it will.

My district is safe Dem and both my Senators are Democrats. I'll still be there voting in November, not that it matters much.

R459, the night of November 6 will be a delight, in part, because the truly horrid, dreadful, awful Barbara "Trumpstock" will go down to defeat. And, kudos to the person on Jennifer Wexton's team who thought up that clever nickname for that witch Comstock.

In a New Reuters / University of Virginia Poll this last week, Democrat Beto O'Rourke leads Ted Cruz by 3 Point in their Senate Race.

If it's the poll I'm thinking of, that was three weeks ago, R462, and it remains an outlier. The race has been pretty stable, with Cruz leading by about 4 points or so. But, honestly, it's a huge win that Beto is even that close, all things considered.

Is anyone else experiencing this problem or similar to it?

There is this guy in my office who feels compelled to explain the Kavanaugh confirmation and vote. He's like trying to justify it. It's sort of the feeling that I was picking up from Republicans all weekend. It's like; "Cool down. Don't be angry. It will all be alright."

[quote]It's like; "Cool down. Don't be angry. It will all be alright."

I'm getting pretty much the opposite -- "Suck it, Libs!"

For President Trump and the GOP, the 2018 midterms are shaping up to be a tale of two chambers. In the U.S. House, Republicans look like they’ll lose seats — and maybe even their majority.1 But the U.S. Senate is a different story. FiveThirtyEight’s Classic forecast shows essentially no change in seats as the most likely outcome, and gives the GOP about a 7 in 9 chance of maintaining control. In fact, we currently give Republicans almost a 50 percent shot of gaining at least one seat.

That is always what was expected r466. The 2018 Senate map is horrible for the Dems, everyone knew that, them flipping it was always going to an uphill battle where they somehow manage to beat the odds. It can happen, but it was never going to be the safe bet.

Nate Silver has a 3 in 4 chance democrats take the house and a 7 in 9 chance Republicans keep the senate.

So to answer your question OP - no, the Senate will not flip.

Without the Senate, there's no point in even discussing impeachment since only the Senate can convict. It's just a symbolic gesture that may please many here, but will have no weight.

So the only options to get rid of Trump will be to vote him out in 2020 or if the Mueller investigation uncovers such malfeasance that even some Republicans can't hide behind spin any longer.

I don't have any real confidence in the latter scenario right now.

It requires a massive 67 votes to remove someone from office r470. Even if the Dems win control of the senate they would never have that.

The important part of the Dems controlling the senate is about stopping future judicial appointments.

Why the fuck do so many people still want Republicans? Do they enjoy making the country eat dog shit? The question answers itself, I suppose.

[quote]DL is now full of extremists, sad. Dr. Fraud and her non evidence are jokes in most sane people's eyes just so you know.

Feel free to leave, R427. Isn't life too short for trolling progressive sites?

You are not a DL-er and you never were one.

As I look at this, I can't help but think of all my friends who live in the DC city limits and have zero Senate representation, or any voting representation in Congress at all.

Statehood for DC (and Puerto Rico while we are at it), needs to be more of a real movement.

So blockade the beltway until DC gets statehood

[quote]In my District, the Democrat is 7 points ahead of Barbara Comstock. Hope it holds. I think it will.

Yes, Barbara Comstock has been trailing for several months now. Sometimes by as much as 10 points.

Comstock is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House this year.

Plus, Hillary Clinton won her district in 2016.

Everyone says we won't take the Senate which makes me think that we may very well take the Senate.

Trump is out on the road every night, shooting his mouth off. It energizes his base and it energizes our base even more. Good thing we've been fired up and working on this election for two years already. The Republicans are just getting around to paying attention. I think we can take them but, as always, it's about turnout and turnout is about anger. We'll see.

Donate to these Dems

Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O’Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI John Tester, MT

The only thing that (I hope) is stopping Manchin from declaring himself Republican is that he knows that if he does he would be primaried by an extreme candidate and probably lose. In other news, today in 2 R held districs (Michigan 11th and NC 9th) the Dem is polling higher.

DC has a bigger population than fucking Wyoming and North Dakota which have 2 Senators each.

R478:

Tammy Baldwin is probably safe. Last poll had her ahead by 11 points.

Tester will probably win. He has maintained a small edge all along.

Donnelly is vulnerable, but looks like he may hold on.

Nelson is still vulnerable, although in better shape than he was a few months ago.

Sinema, McCaskill & Rosen are Toss Ups and could go either way.

Odds are against Bredesen, O'Rourke & Heitkamp.

Dems to support:

Jacky Rosen, NV

Phil Bredesen, TN

Claire McCaskill, MO

Bill Nelson, FL

Joe Donnelly, IN

Heidi Heitkamp, ND

Beto O’Rourke, TX

Kyrsten Sinema, AZ

Tammy Baldwin, WI

John Tester, MT

R4, that’s not how it works. They need that money NOW, not after they win. And holding your money to see “if they win” is a big fucking reason Democrats lose and Republicans win.

Just GET A FUCKING CLUE.

R483, R4 was obviously a troll.

Take a Xanax and start again.

Tester had a nice lead but his vote against Kavanaugh is hurting him now. Hopefully, he can hold on.

Senate won’t flip, House will, but not as huge as projected a couple months ago.

Will donated money actually do any good at this point? Haven’t people pretty much made up their minds?

[quote] Most polling companies today have an aggregate sample of both landlines and cellphones.

There has to be some science about how polls are conducted. I would never participate in a poll if contacted on my cell. I would never participate in an online poll because of malware and viruses. I would wager that those most likely to be polled are on landlines.

R488, as explained above, polling companies put together a composite sample of people contacted both on landlines and cellphones. They do not just poll people on landlines.

And online polls are very common today. I haven't heard anything about any problems with malware and viruses.

Yes, money will do some good in some races. Probably not for O'Rourke, who's swimming in cash, but there are a lot of races flying below the radar where money can help with get out the vote efforts.

So far around 200k people have already voted in the 2018 midterms.

Let's me get this straight. By this point in his Presidency, Obama stabilized the economy and expanded health care coverage for 11 million people. He was rebuked in the house and senate.

Now Donny two scoops gave away the farm to North Korea for no benefit, passed a tax break that benefits corporations, and carved the country apart with a shifty SCOTUS nominee and he might gain senate seats!? FUCK YOU, America.

Just in case you have not seen this.

New NEVADA SENATE poll

NBC/Marist

Dean Heller (R) ahead of Jacky Rosen (D) by 2 points

Heller (R) 46%

Rosen (D) 44%

*

However, a few good numbers in the Nevada poll for Democrats:

*

The Kavanaugh Effect in NV:

Are you more likely to vote for a candidate who...?

- supported Kavanaugh 38%

- opposed Kavanaugh 41%

- doesn't make any difference 18%

*

Trump approval in Nevada Among likely voters

Approve: 45%

Disapprove: 47%

Registered voters

Approve 43%

Disapprove 47%

FYI

Make of it what you wish;

"In 2012, Black voters swung the national election with turnout at 66%. We can change the course of our nation these Midterms again! Here's the easiest way to donate to black-led organizing groups to make a difference in key races and ballot initiatives"

Let’s not forget that an important factor in Trump’s 2016 win* was getting a lot of people who never voted before to turn out to vote for him. These non-voters are never polled, so their support and influence are stealthy.

I think we’ll see a lot of these kinds of “stealth”voters turn out for Beto in Texas, especially new, young voters and Democrats who just never had a real, viable choice to bother turning out for in previous years. I think this kind of voter will help to put him over the top, but we won’t realise that until Election Day.

I also think that this brilliant new anti-Cruz advert directed by Richard Linklater will help, too. It’s getting loads of buzz right now!

That's helped me feel a bit more cheerful [R429]

This is the same shit that was shoveled about HILLARY CAN’T LOSE, prepare for disappointment in November, I do not trust anything!

Harry Enten says we may see the biggest gender gap since the 1970's.

Watch here:

Absolutely HORRIBLE poll out tonight in Arizona. Sinema down 6 to Mcsally. Hopefully this poll is just an outlier, because if it's not...

Sinema has been ahead in all the other recent polls I've seen, R500, so this one could be an outlier by giving McSally a lead that large.

I also notice that OH Predictive Insights had McSally ahead in their previous poll.

So this pollster may have a lean towards McSally.

Hopefully, r501. Because vote by mail (huge here) starts tomorrow in AZ. If Mcsally is legitimately peaking, she couldn't have picked a better time to do so.

[quote] So this pollster may have a lean towards McSally.

I saw McSally ahead by 5 points yesterday.

[quote]"In 2012, Black voters swung the national election with turnout at 66%. We can change the course of our nation these Midterms again! Here's the easiest way to donate to black-led organizing groups to make a difference in key races and ballot initiatives"

The black vote does not decide the Southwest. It will be the young and Latino vote. Now Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, and Missouri are another story.

I am getting increasingly uncomfortable about the surges GOP candidates running this year for Senate have experienced in the past week since the Kavanaugh drama.

Bredesen, Heitkamp, Rosen, O'Rourke and now Sinema have noticeably seen their numbers drop considerably. The Kavanaugh victimization talking points from the GOP may very well be waking up Republican voters as a lot of pundits have indicated.

Jonathan Swan was on Fox News last night and he was saying that polling in Indiana have shifted in Mike Braun's favor. If that's true for Donnelly in Indiana and the new poll in AZ is catching a McSally surge, the Senate races will be a bloodbath for Democrats if the numbers sustain. If Donnelly and Sinema are sinking, Tester in Montana and even Manchin in W. Virginia may be in trouble.

If the GOP surge is real, it's not going to be limited to just the Senate either. It may erase some of the leads or toss-ups in the House too. I'm kind of freaking out.

[quote]This is the same shit that was shoveled about HILLARY CAN’T LOSE

Nate Silver had a 70% chance Hillary would win, but people just have a hard time accepting what probability means. That means 3/10 odds she would lose, which she did.

I still believe the Russians hacked the voter polls in favor of Trump.

Obama is poison in Texas, Florida, Arizona, Montana, Virginia, N. Dakota, Indiana. He could help Jackie Rosen in Nevada. It’s a blue state with a lot of California transplants. Me included. But Obama should take Bill and Hillary and hide under a rock until this is all over.

r508 is a Russian troll.

Obama is very popular in Virginia. Fairly popular in Arizona and Florida. Lukewarm in Montana. Only in N. Dakota and Texas could you say he is unpopular.

R509 I’m not a Russian troll idiot. If Obama was popular in Virginia, Manchin wouldn’t have been panicking and vote for Kavanaugh. He did it to save his ass. Obama in Arizona is about as popular as McCain. The state turned on him in favor of Trump rhetoric. Florida? Nelson is hanging on by his thumbnails. Montana? There are no black people in racist heavily Mormon Montana. Obama is of no use in the Senate midterms.

[quote] If Obama was popular in Virginia, Manchin wouldn’t have been panicking and vote for Kavanaugh. He did it to save his ass.

Manchin represents WEST Virginia. Russian schools are falling behind on U.S. geography.

[quote]The state turned on him in favor of Trump rhetoric.

Ah... but, you have to remember that Trump was viewed by many--white people, as the GREAT white hope. However....

After nearly two years of Trump there are many Republicans and even a few conservatives are saying; "You know... the colored man wasn't too bad. I might not have agreed with his policies but he was a good family man...."

A lot of red starting to pop up on the latest RCP polls.

R511 West, who cares. They’re welfare Disability States. And I’m from LA. R512 The moderate Republicans are leaving the Party, but I’m afraid the Trump Deplorables are still out for blood. And the Democrats are still trying to appeal to millennials who couldn’t give a shit about the midterms.

R500 The Green Party candidate is siphoning votes from the Democrat

“They’re welfare Disability States.“ Virginia is hardly in the same category as West Virginia, R514. Some of the wealthiest counties and cities in the country (Loudon, Fairfax, Alexandria, etc.) are in Virginia, and they vote blue — and are going bluer still in 2018.

Obama is popular here, with the exception of SW Virginia and Southside. In last year’s statewide offices and House of Delegates election, Obama headlined a rally for Dem gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam, who ended up defeating his GOP opponent, Ed Gillespie, quite handily.

I don’t think you’re a Russian bot, as others have suggested; you’re simply ill-informed and provincial. By insisting that we know that you’re from LA, you only underscore and reinforce that.

[quote] [R508] is a Russian troll.

Says the Hysterical OCD Troll- Calling Troll.

Well, saying that someone is a Russian troll is a bit shorter and a bit more diplomatic than saying that they are an ignorant dipshit posting really stupid drivel that bears little resemblance to reality. And considering that the troll in this case didn't know the difference between Virginia and West Virginia, well....

[quote]West, who cares. They’re welfare Disability States.

There's a big difference between West Virginia and Virginia.

Virginia voted for Obama twice, and then for Hillary.

It has 2 Democratic Senators & a Democratic Governor.

It's West Virginia where Obama is unpopular, not Virginia.

[quote] idiot. If Obama was popular in Virginia, Manchin wouldn’t have been panicking and vote for Kavanaugh.

Oh dear!

I just got hardcore second-hand embarrassment from this post. Feel like I am watching an episode of "The Office"

My favorite flip.

R516 Oh, please blow it out your ass. Obama couldn’t endorse Beto because he’s of no use there. Obama won’t be campaigning for Manchin either. Or in Arizona, North Dakota, Florida, Montana, etc. as I stated upthread.

And I am from LA. Born in West Hollywood.

Cruz is now +10 above the margin of error per NYT. Beto is over.

Nope, still single digits, R523. A long shot, as we've repeatedly noted, but still in striking distance.

That’s probably why Cruz cancelled his debate with Beto. He doesn’t need it. Beto spent a lot of time appealing to the demo that doesn’t vote - millennials, Hispanics.

Trump has handed failure on a silver platter and the Democrats still can’t form a cohesive message to win.

Um, R526, they are, in fact, winning. They're just not likely to win the Senate, given the brutal nature of the Senate map, perhaps the worst map in the past century. The Republicans were crowing a year ago about getting to a filibuster-proof 60 votes. They're not crowing anymore.

Oh, it figures. R526 is the idiot above who couldn't figure out that Virginia and West Virginia are two different states.

One of the interesting developments in this election is what's happening in the Midwest.

Despite the fact that the Republicans are remaining strong in many areas of the country, they don't seem to be performing as well as expected in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania.

Even though Trump won these states in 2016, the Democrats are leading in all of the Senate races by *double digits* -- Tammy Baldwin (WI), Debbie Stabenow (MI), Bob Casey (PA) & Sherrod Brown (OH) all appear safe.

Plus, the Democrats are leading or tied in the Governor's races in these states, as well.

Yeah, their odds of taking the House look damn strong. A "blue wave" big enough to overcome the gerrymandering, it is pretty impressive renunciation of Trump.

I WANT THE SENATE TOO, DAMN IT!!!

I'm having trouble finding the old poll but I'm pretty sure that a month ago, the Siena College/NYT poll had the exact same results for Beto & Cruz that they did today. It's a landline poll, fwiw.

My crystal ball is in the shop.

We all do, R531, particularly so that we can put a stop to that noxious stream of federal judges that Trump is packing the courts with. But right now, that remains a long shot unless that blue wave becomes a real tsunami.

Our country will never recover from Kavanaugh.

The thing about Kavanaugh is a really, nasty, sleazy pig...I am pretty sure he will try to hurt Dr. Ford. The FBI should try to keep an eye on him.

R532, the NYT poll isn't a landline poll.

[quote]That said, the advantages of this approach have declined since 2016. More and more voters on the voter file have a cellphone number, and cellphone respondents tend to be more representative.

They're pulling phone records from the voter file and that file contains cell phone numbers as well as landline numbers.

Okay, thanks R536. I went to this page and didn't scroll down enough.

R528 is the idiot who thinks Obama is an asset to the Democrats in the midterms. Hmmm, where’s Obama? Not on the campaign trail.

Who answers unknown numbers? In Texas I get 20 calls a day from bullshit robots. Only old, bored people answer unknown numbers.

I never answer unknown numbers. I block them.

R538 is the idiot who can't be bothered to actually read what other people post and who thinks that making shit up is a really neat debating tactic.

Free clue, moron: I haven't said a damn thing about Obama campaigning.

And someone put a muzzle on Hillary until this election is over. She’s as useful right now as an STD.

Somebody probably should put a muzzle on the guy who doesn't know what Virginia is. He is adding nothing constructive, yet he finds the need to incessantly share his "insights".

[quote]Hmmm, where’s Obama? Not on the campaign trail.

You really are a moron, aren't you? I mean, you proudly know nothing and then you come here to exhibit that ignorance for all to see.

[quote]The former president will kick off his push by delivering a speech at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign on Friday. In the weeks ahead, Obama will also campaign in California, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania, a person familiar with his schedule said.

One day its this poll then another poll then another, and another...

Its going to be a nail biting four weeks!

This shit show will never end.

R543. I’m female, fool.

I don't know how accurate those NYT phone polls are but, if they are to believed, Tennessee is a lost cause even with Tay Tay on our side.

You can claim to be anything you want, R548. All we know about you is that you're an idiot, based on your posts on this thread.

[quote]I don't know how accurate those NYT phone polls are but, if they are to believed, Tennessee is a lost cause even with Tay Tay on our side.

Yes, all the polls in Tennessee seem to be turning against Bredesen.

He had held up pretty well until a couple of weeks ago.

There's also a theory going around that Bredesen may even be losing Democratic voters in TN now because he said he would have voted for Kavanaugh.

Hard to say.

Tennessee and Texas were ALWAYS fool's gold. Kavanaugh may have made things a lot worse by riling up GOP voters, but we were never going to win these. Maybe this year will finally end the Democratic party's sick fetish about turning Texas blue, but who am I kidding? Next election cycle there will be another Kennedy/Obama/Hillary with a twang who is going to be The One....

I just hope that the money we wasted in these states wouldn't have saved Heitkamp or some other Democrat running in a cheap media market.

[quote]Tennessee and Texas were ALWAYS fool's gold. Kavanaugh may have made things a lot worse by riling up GOP voters, but we were never going to win these.

But, here's the the thing R552. Politicians--ESPECIALLY Democrats, have to learn that you cannot cherry pick voters. Voters don't like that. Voters want you to speak to them individually even if they disagree with you. I believe they have more respect for you. Remember Scott Brown? He knocked on every single door. That's what Beto is doing too.

Sometimes trying to be too scientific (like Hillary for example) isn't the best path to winning.

The point, once again, isn't just winning a given state; it's also raising turnout and raising Democratic numbers that will affect downballot races. Even if Beto or Bredesen lose they'll have done that—and diverted Republican money from elsewhere.

And Democrats are still minimizing how much culture matter. It can even trump issues. Voters in the South and rural America love charismatic, plain spoken, God-loving folksy candidates.

Hmm... "something" isn't right here.

I know I may come across as believing a poll when it says something that I like and then disbelieving it when it doesn't, but "something" just doesn't feel right to me here. Like statistics, I'm sure you can manipulate a poll to give whatever outcome that you want it to be. Therefore, (and once again I'm heading into my conspiracy zone), there is no telling how really "real" and accurate these polls are.

Look... the super wealthy donors of the Republicans are pouring TONS of money into this election. They have been pouring tons of money into our elections and politics for quite some time now. They have been living and implementing/executing strategy for a time just like this of where they will be in a position to control and manipulate public thought and opinion. What was one of Roger Ailes famous quotes? "You don't tell the public how to think but you tell them what to think."

It's just hard to believe that so many people would vote against their own self-interests. But.... Well, there was Kentucky, West Virginia, and many other red state areas where the people's support of Republicans just makes no sense.

[quote]It's just hard to believe that so many people would vote against their own self-interests.

Well, that's the way we look at it -- but the truth is they prioritize different things than we do. For (many of) them, the continued marginalization of gays, minorities and immigrants is more important than their ability to put food on the table. Seems crazy to us but there you go.

Exactly. So many liberals and progressives say people are voting against their self-interest, but they often don’t know much about the people they are talking about. If you think abortion is murder of innocent babies, why wouldn’t you vote against someone who thinks it’s legally Permissible?

[quote] If you think abortion is murder of innocent babies, why wouldn’t you vote against someone who thinks it’s legally Permissible?

Probably because your needing a heart operation to keep yourself alive is of much more importance? LOL! I follow your point, R558. Of course your explanation makes sense. Let's see... yesterday, I saw 3 Mexicans. Today, I see 8. BUILD THAT WALL!!! LOL! So what, I can't feed my family. It's because of the....

Steve Kornacki:

In Texas, Quinnipiac has Ted Cruz taking 37% of the Hispanic vote. In Nevada, NBC/Marist has Dean Heller getting 38% and NYT/Siena has him getting 39%.

yep, Democrats are doing a piss poor job appealing to Latinos. Republicans should not be getting nearly 40 percent of the Latin vote. If it turns out to be accurate, Democrats are in worse trouble than I feared

[quote]yep, Democrats are doing a piss poor job appealing to Latinos.

In my opinion, the Democratic party is doing s piss poor job appealing to anyone. I posted this here on this thread or on another one, but this blue wave, (if it will happen), is the people of the grass roots taking charge and taking control. The Democrat party is just along for the ride.

Those Democrats who are doing well are those who are on the ground and who have organized their own ground game outside of, or in spite of, the Democrat party.

Not surprising. Many Latinos are conservative, evangelical, anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, not college graduates, etc. A lot of them are vigorously opposed to illegal immigration and open borders. See it as job threats among other reasons.

God-fearing candidates like Trump, R555?

Please remind us which church he attends every Sunday.

Democrats have been helping Latino immigrants for years and they will be rewarded by Latinos becoming majority republican in one generation.

Where's Tom Perez anyway? Rarely see him on the news or traveling, trying to build the Democratic organizational structures among the states..

There is no credible Democratic Party machine in my state. Offered to volunteer twice this cycle, no one got back in touch either time.

R564, while most wouldn’t consider Trump to be “God-fearing,” he certainly exhalts and give power to people of traditional faith. From beginning, he has not only appointed lots of evangelicals and conservative Catholics to power, but also heaped praise on their values and agenda. Thus, they see him as a modern day Cyrus, not one of them, but for them.

[quote]Where's Tom Perez anyway?

Tweeting....

(12 min. ago)

Tom Perez ‏ Verified account

@TomPerez @TomPerez

Unacceptable. Democrats will keep fighting to build an economy that works for all, not just a wealthy few.

[quote] There is no credible Democratic Party machine in my state. Offered to volunteer twice this cycle, no one got back in touch either time

Compare this to republicans, who actively help conservative high school students like Stephen Miller. Them they have the College Republicans where operatives eye all the members and pick the ones who seem like they’d be the best dirty tricksters, or SCOTUS nominees

Republicans are just more dedicated to winning no matter what. We need to wake up now

By any means necessary, R570

NYT's Nick Confessore:

The emerging Republican midterm campaign theme -- Democrats as a gang of dangerous thugs, a mob, one of them used to rap!! etc. -- may be effective (and it's not new), but it's also suggests they can't get traction with issues like the tax cut or Obamacare.

All those people who said that we didn't know jack about 2016 because we didn't see the Trump rallies for what they were and what they meant, you may have been right.

Now take a gander at Beto's rallies in Texas.

[quote]Now take a gander at Beto's rallies in Texas.

But, but, but, that's different...

Don't know about Hispanics elsewhere, but in Texas Mexican-Americans were always at the bottom of the social ladder, below African-Americans. That's racist - but it's the truth. Many of them seem to suffer from a form of Stockholm Syndrome - they identify with the Anglos who hate them. Pathetic. African Americans are not deluded, Mexican Americans are.

[quote]And Democrats are still minimizing how much culture matter. It can even trump issues. Voters in the South and rural America love charismatic, plain spoken, God-loving folksy candidates.

Yes, this is a valid point.

Bill Clinton was the last Democrat who was able to resonate with Southern and rural voters. Although Bill Clinton is a Rhodes Scholar and an intellectual, he can switch into the down to earth mode and connect with "ordinary folks".

Bill Clinton was able to win Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Arizona & Georgia.

No other Democrat for President has been able to win those states since Bill.

R572 Nick Confessore acknowledges he is a conservative. I assume he is a Republican. The point is correct though. Good you mentioned it.

R576 Clinton had a gift that comes along once in a generation. A true intellectual who could explain complicated issues in simple terms to uneducated people. I always remember his remarkable speech at the 2012 convention when Obama was in trouble. Obama just sounded like a professor. Beto is also an intellectual who can talk in simple terms without being condescending to simple people. I think it's a Southern thing.

New *WISCONSIN* Poll

NBC/Marist

Likely Voters

SENATE

Baldwin (D) 54%

Vukmir (R) 40%

**

GOVERNOR

Evers (D) 53%

Walker (R) 43%

**

Poll conducted 9/30 to 10/3

It would be brilliant if every candidate Trump rallied for lost.

Agree with R562.

Why did Democrats ever think that Latinos would automatically vote Democrat? Is there any concrete evidence that Latino voters are smarter than, say, white voters who vote against their own interests—or, as people upthread have commented, vote for narrow interests rather than those of basic health and economics?

Here's another reality check, on the Senate.

I love your commentary r576 /poll troll, but one correction. Clinton's "folksiness" had nothing to do with him winning AZ in 1996. Perot taking 8% of the vote is why Clinton squeaked out a win in Arizona that year.

As much as I wish for Texas and Arizona to elect a democrat I do wonder if all this talk about both states trending blue is nonsense. We heard this when Wendy Davis ran for governor too and she got creamed.

“It's just hard to believe that so many people would vote against their own self-interests”

No, you cannot understand why they vote against things that they do not perceive to be in their best interest. People that are retiring are leaving New Jersey and Illinois in droves because of the outrageous tax structures.

Democrats will raise taxes for everyone, including the poor, and provide substandard shit with the money.

As opposed to Repubs who give tax breaks to the rich and provide substandard shit to everyone else.

R582, it's hard to say precisely what effect Perot had.

Some research shows that he may have taken votes away from Clinton, and not just Bush & Dole.

It's true that Bill Clinton's win in Arizona was narrow, as were some of his wins in certain other states.

But what's significant is that he was able to win a lot of states that the Democrats have struggled in under Gore, Kerry, Obama & Hillary.

Well, and this is strictly anecdotal, my parents and grandparents (all registered Republicans) had been big Perot supporters in 1992 and argued about whether or not to support him or Dole in 1996 (they stayed with Perot). So maybe there cases the other way, but at least in my household growing up Perot was a spoiler.

Anyway, now Sinema is getting pounded for calling AZ "crazy". Yes, she did it in the context of the debate over SB1070 (the law going after illegals), but still not a good look. I have never thought she was going to win, and I have always thought that Democrats who act like AZ is a guaranteed pickup are nuts. But how much of that is real and how much is just me trying not to get heartbroken I don't know. I was sure Roy Moore was going to win too, so what do I know?

Garcia, our utterly hapless gubernatorial candidate, just released an internal poll showing him down 7 points and the Senate race tied. That's terrible news for Sinema if true. (Also, Garcia is losing almost 40% of HISPANIC voters, showing the utter stupidity of pushing open borders policies here).

R587 = Right wing troll.

There is no such thing as an "Open Borders Policy" let alone any candidate "pushing" it in Arizona or anywhere else, you fucking troll.

Go suck Trump's mushroom dick and leave decent people on the Datalounge alone, scum.

Good luck winning the Senate with that attitude, r588. But hey, you'll still have your little high horse to climb on, so what does another couple of SC Justices matter, right?

Nothing's written yet. Continue to donate, canvass, phone bank, write postcards, vote.

Picking up seats is vital. Beto could pull this out.

Absolutely, r590. Hopefully this Kavanaugh bump is just that, a bump. It's just now we're getting down to crunch time.

R589 has reading comprehension issues.

I haven't had the time to read this thread. Can someone update me real quick on the likelihood of taking the Senate and/or House?

So when polls show percentages of Repubs and percentages of Democrat’s or Independents, shouldn’t they also point out that those groups don’t have equal numbers? I mean a higher percentage of a smaller group doesn’t necessarily equal a lower percentage of a larger group. Isn’t that relevant?

R593 Slim but not zero.

But we should take the House, right R595?

House is done, Democrats take it by a good margin.

Senate is up for grabs. Kavanaugh the drunken rapist helped Republicans last week, we'll see what happens next week.

New thread.

It's like 70% we take the house, 30% we take the senate. We need to hold all our seats in the house and pick up 25 for a majority. We are at 49-51 in the senate. We need to hold our seats and it would be amazing to pick up 3 seats.

Take nothing for granted. I've been canvassing for a couple months and the Republicans are bastards.

Thread closed