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Will the Senate Flip - Part Deux

Continue your arguing.

Link to previous thread.

by Anonymousreply 52511/06/2018

Taking the House is essential. Taking the Senate would be fabulous. So much can still happen between now and the election.

by Anonymousreply 110/11/2018

You know the old adage, 24 hours is a lifetime in American politics.

by Anonymousreply 210/11/2018

I think the Rethuglicans are pretty freaked out. They are so desperate to claim that any idea of losing the Senate is just impossible! Can't happen! Won't happen! Ever!

Methinks they dost protest too much. They can still lose it all.

by Anonymousreply 310/11/2018

Senate is impossible.

House is a toss up. The competitive races are now statistically tied.

A break one way is decisive.

by Anonymousreply 410/11/2018

How, R3

Three miracles?

Losing a (D) Senate seat is more probable at this juncture.

by Anonymousreply 510/11/2018

Do not give up working. A lot can happen.

by Anonymousreply 610/11/2018

If Dems can’t take the House, we’re lost for 2 more years. Trump and the Rethugs will be emboldened and even more aggressive.

by Anonymousreply 710/11/2018

Meanwhile several states are manipulating their voter rolls and rules to cut into the Dem vote.

by Anonymousreply 810/11/2018

[quote]House is a toss up. The competitive races are now statistically tied.

Link, please.

by Anonymousreply 910/11/2018

That's what has me terrified about the Senate. Virtually everyone assumes Heitkamp is a goner at this point, meaning that even if Dems pick up NV and AZ we're still only at 50 (Although even fifty ain't so bad, we may be able to sway a GOP senator here or there). But if there is even a relatively small GOP wave in red states, we could lose Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester, Donnelly and Manchin even while winning the House by romping in Clinton states and districts. Hell, in Florida the hurricane may just give Scott that tiny little push he needs to take out Nelson.

I know that's a worst case scenario (well a worst case would be failing to pick up the House, which would be a blow-your-brains-out scenario). But still, I guess I'd like to prepare for the worst even while hoping for the best.

by Anonymousreply 1010/11/2018

People like Kemp went to Russia and studied voter manipulation. Remember the shit he pulled with Jones? If you can, volunteer to drive ppl to the polls, deliver water, pay someone's voter ID.

by Anonymousreply 1110/11/2018

Trump raised taxes on businesses and increased spending. Two things the American people don’t like. This should be a central theme of the Democrats. The angry Carrier employees who voted Trump and lost their jobs should be played on a loop in every state. Add the 24,000 Ford layoffs, etc.

by Anonymousreply 1210/12/2018

Are you guys fucking crazy? Why would you listen to right wing assholes tell you that the Senate is gone? The Senate is nowhere near gone. Heitkamp is not gone. Beto is probably going to beat Cruz. Manchin and McCaskill will probably win. All this gloom and doom is just RAPEpublican bullshit, trying to keep the drunken rapist judge bounce going for a few weeks.

We took ALABAMA for fuck's sake. Call Roy Moore whatever you want, he had Trump and he had the backing of the Republican Party and it was in ALABAMA.

by Anonymousreply 1310/12/2018

The angry Kavanaugh bumps are already Deplorable. The polls say it’s the Democrats that are energized.

by Anonymousreply 1410/12/2018

[quote]Beto is probably going to beat Cruz

God love you for your enthusiasm, r13. If you turn out to be right considering that Beto hasn't led in a single poll, then you should post your lottery picks immediately. You're probably right about Manchin, and ironically enough it was likely his Kavanaugh vote that ended up saving him.

Actually several important Republicans refused to endorse Roy Moore. Even fellow scumbag Trump only gave him a very grudging endorsement (and heavily endorsed his primary rival).

by Anonymousreply 1510/12/2018

Sheldon Adelson giving an additional $25 million -- and possibly more -- to shore up Republican efforts to hold the House and Senate. This is on top of the $55 million he gave earlier this year.

The news comes one day after it was revealed that Trump had personally pressured the Japanese prime minister to approve Adelson’s proposed casino project in Tokyo, a startling breach of diplomatic norms.

by Anonymousreply 1610/12/2018

Although this thread is about the Senate, has anybody else wasted time playing with the House election simulator? It's fun to run simulations and fantasize about Election Night really being like that, although it's still based on ratings from various pollsters and so could be completely wrong.

by Anonymousreply 1710/12/2018

R16

How is shit like this not illegal?

by Anonymousreply 1810/12/2018

[quote]How is shit like this not illegal?

Because we have a mob boss instead of a president

by Anonymousreply 1910/12/2018

Two young Arizona Republicans tried to make a donation to a Democratic congressman as members of the Communist party in an apparent attempt to tie him to the far left.

Two men who called themselves Jose Rosales and Ahmahd Sadia walked into the campaign office of first-term Democrat Tom O’Halleran with $39.68 and an urgent desire for the Northern Arizona University Communist party to be given a receipt for the donation.

It turns out that both men work for the Arizona Republican party and were following the lead of famed dirty trickster Roger Stone, who pulled a similar stunt on behalf of Richard Nixon in 1972,

by Anonymousreply 2010/12/2018

Dirty

by Anonymousreply 2110/12/2018

Republicans Are Disenfranchising Thousands of Minority Voters Ahead of Next Month's Midterm Elections

Indiana: Has canceled the registrations of 469,000 voters, equivalent to a little over 10% of the registered voters in Indiana’s 2014 midterms.

Georgia: Republican Brian Kemp, ,the current Georgia Secretary of State who is now running for Governor, has put 53,000 registrations "on hold." Georgia’s population is 32% black, but the list of voter registrations on hold is nearly 70% black. No doubt it is merely a coincidence that Kemp's Democratic opponent for the governorship is a black woman.

Florida: Of the 30,196 applications for voting rights restoration [Florida governor Rick Scott has] received since taking office in January 2011, he's approved only 3,005, or just under 10 percent.

North Dakota: Republicans are stripping thousands of Native Americans of the right to vote, all because of a loophole made through America’s historical abuse of these American citizens.

by Anonymousreply 2210/12/2018

Well we don’t have the Courts to stop it. We were warned in 2016

by Anonymousreply 2310/12/2018

The hope is that the polls exclude the part of the electorate that is most energized by anti-Trump/Republican sentiment -- younger voters, people of color, etc. The science of polling favors older, Republican leaning voters. It is hard to capture infrequent or first-time voters in polling -- or to conduct a poll with cell phone users, who rarely consent to polling.

by Anonymousreply 2410/12/2018

At least we will have the House.

by Anonymousreply 2510/12/2018

R25, dont presume anything. That’s partly why we lost in 2016

by Anonymousreply 2610/12/2018

Democrats could take the Senate if they ran and hard and aggressive national campaign outlining the Republican plans to trash Social Security, Medicare and ballooning deficits.

by Anonymousreply 2710/12/2018

I agree 100%, R26! We must continue to work hard, as if our lives depended upon the outcome, to the very last second!

[quote]Democrats could take the Senate if they ran and hard and aggressive national campaign outlining the Republican plans to trash Social Security, Medicare and ballooning deficits.

BINGO! Where are the ads? Where is Tom Perez and others? Nancy Pelosi is doing the right thing by laying low.

by Anonymousreply 2810/12/2018

Dems have great candidates for the Senate, but they are running in states like Texas and Tennnesse r27

This map is horrible for the Dems, there is no way around it.

by Anonymousreply 2910/12/2018

[quote]This map is horrible for the Dems, there is no way around it.

(sing with me)

"We shall overcome. We shall overcome..."

by Anonymousreply 3010/12/2018

Beto O'Rourke smashes record, raises $38.1 million in three months. It's the most ever raised in a quarter by a US Senate campaign.

The O'Rourke campaign, which has rejected PAC money, announced that the $38.1 million haul was "powered by 802,836 individual contributions," and said that the "majority of the fundraising c[ame] from Texas."

by Anonymousreply 3110/12/2018

If we manage to flip the House that itself a a huge win that will completely change the dynamic in Washington. That possible achievement shouldn't be shrugged off.

by Anonymousreply 3210/12/2018

I WANT THE SENATE TOO, R32!!!

by Anonymousreply 3310/12/2018

Yes, we heard you the first time dear r33. Do you have anything constructive to add to the discussion...?

by Anonymousreply 3410/12/2018

Taking the Senate has to be viewed like the Republican takeover of the Senate, the House and State Legislatures; as long as we make progress, it will have to be a multi election process.

We need to get rid of the Electoral College.

by Anonymousreply 3510/12/2018

That ain’t happening

by Anonymousreply 3610/12/2018

Yes R35. How do we get rid of the EC?

by Anonymousreply 3710/12/2018

1. He's behind in the polls. By like 7-10 points. 2. Big fundraising for Democratic candidates in Texas does not = wins (see Wendy Davis) 3. The fundamentals in the state still favor Republicans

by Anonymousreply 3810/12/2018

A Constitutional Amendment could very well happen.

by Anonymousreply 3910/12/2018

[quote]Yes, we heard you the first time dear [R33]. Do you have anything constructive to add to the discussion...?

Absolutely.

I WANT THE SENATE TOO!!!!

Stay focused. Work harder. Believe and know that it can be done.

by Anonymousreply 4010/12/2018

How? Small states would never vote to decrease their power. Think

by Anonymousreply 4110/12/2018

Really, we should change the numbers of Senators per state too. It is ridiculous for WY and CA to have 2 Senators each.

by Anonymousreply 4210/12/2018

Elect the best gentleman callers!

by Anonymousreply 4310/12/2018

We need UN observers for the election.

by Anonymousreply 4410/12/2018

r41, if the only way to change is through Constitutional Amendment, then that is the process. 2/3 of the states needed. I think that the smaller states will fall in line if they have Democratic legislatures. Like the future DC and PR. They know getting rid of the EC will AMPLIFY their vote.

by Anonymousreply 4510/12/2018

[quote]We need UN observers for the election.

HA! GOOD POINT!!!!

And, that's an angle to attack Republicans!. THEY CHEAT! Lots of evidence to support that too. They want to go with this "mob" nonsense then everyone should start calling them out for exactly what they are!

CHEATERS!

by Anonymousreply 4610/12/2018

I have one Democratic Senator and he is getting old, he should have stepped aside but he didn't...I think his longtime service might hinder his re election.

by Anonymousreply 4710/12/2018

R20 writes,

[Quote]Two young Arizona Republicans tried to make a donation to a Democratic congressman as members of the Communist party in an apparent attempt to tie him to the far left.

What do you mean with the words [Italic]far left[/Italic]?

by Anonymousreply 4810/12/2018

Beto pulls ahead.

by Anonymousreply 4910/12/2018

In Arizona, the Far Left is the Richard Nixon Wing of the Arizona Democratic Party.

by Anonymousreply 5010/12/2018

Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana should be one state. There are more bison than people in Wyoming.

by Anonymousreply 5110/12/2018

[quote]Beto pulls ahead.

You see? It's going to go back and forth like this all the way up until election day. BUT, Craig Melman (MSNBC) just reported that the right is working feverishly to stop the Democrat momentum. This isn't the Russians. These people are the REPUBLICANS! They're all over the internet disseminating rumors and false stories.

Stay strong! Remain focused! We can do this! YES WE CAN!!!

by Anonymousreply 5210/12/2018

R40 I agree. Canvass tomorrow if you can. Ignore the polls, do the work.

Btw, I checked probably a year ago about un observers for polling, at that time, Russians headed to committee (or whatever it's called, I forget). No one will magically save us. Do the work and vote.

by Anonymousreply 5310/12/2018

^polling= voting. UN voting observers

by Anonymousreply 5410/12/2018

The NATIONAL media spotlight has to be focused , floodlights in fact on the voter suppression and corruption happening in Georgia, Florida, Indiana and North Dakota. They have to be embarrassed and pressured into doing the right thing, or at least backing away from this crap. We can make it happen, but not without national media attention. There has to be injunctive relief or lawsuits or public outrage clearly expressed all with the eyes of the nation. And you know what else? ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. Yes. The same way we impose sanctions on Russia or China or turkey or WTF ever, we need to pressure corporate investors, the business community, into stepping up. For example, there were rumors of Amazon looking at Georgia. So maybe some of this people can step forward and nisist Kemp do right. Georgia prides itself on it's economic development. But if some of the business investors started telling them to stop being so damned backward they'd listen. It's not only the masses we need to focus on, but the $$$ people.

by Anonymousreply 5510/12/2018

Everyone should get out to vote and I hope they do HOWEVER it will not matter one bit.

Our country is lost. The Supreme Court and Trump will finish the destruction.

by Anonymousreply 5610/12/2018

[quote]God love you for your enthusiasm, [R13]. If you turn out to be right considering that Beto hasn't led in a single poll

Actually, he's led in three, including a new one today. He's still long odds, of course.

by Anonymousreply 5710/12/2018

[quote]House is a toss up. The competitive races are now statistically tied.

Out of curiosity, why do you think lying so blatantly is a good tactic?

by Anonymousreply 5810/12/2018

These people are nuts...

Now the right is claiming Hurricane Michael was created by Democrats to revenge Kavanaugh

Mark Taylor @patton6966 @patton6966

I warned weeks ago that there would all kinds of attacks to disrupt the elections. No coincidence this monster storm is hitting the most conservative area of Florida. Never in history has been a Cat 4 in the month of Oct. 100 year storm. All the southeast affected. Pray! ...- 5:44 AM - 10 Oct 2018

by Anonymousreply 5910/12/2018

So Democrats can create Hurricanes?

by Anonymousreply 6010/12/2018

There were some responses to that tweet or a prior one that claimed that there was some sort of top secret military project that could create such weather. I guess they're thinking this supposed Deep State is using this technology.

What I don't get is why they think this supposed Deep State is Democratic? The FBI, military organizations, and security organizations, tend to be Republican.

by Anonymousreply 6110/12/2018

Here in Arizona my ballot arrived today. In Maricopa County the election seems to mostly take place with early voting.

by Anonymousreply 6210/12/2018

In case your friends or family have questions about voting

by Anonymousreply 6310/12/2018

Marsha Blackburn, the Republican candidate, leads NYT poll by 14 %

by Anonymousreply 6410/12/2018

MMPH... I just refuse to believe that, R64. She might be leading but not by 14. I see that the only one reporting that number is FOX

by Anonymousreply 6510/12/2018

The NYTimes/Siena poll surveys Tennessee and finds Republican Marsha Blackburn ahead of Democrat Phil Bredesen, 54 percent to 40 percent. You know what’s going to be epic? When Taylor Swift debuts her song about breaking up with Bredesen.

by Anonymousreply 6610/12/2018

R65. that poll is from NYT, not from FOX.

by Anonymousreply 6710/12/2018

FOX is the only one reporting the poll, R67. I couldn't care less if the poll was from St Peter. I'm not buying it.

by Anonymousreply 6810/12/2018

Breedsen is Kavanaugh casualty

by Anonymousreply 6910/12/2018

Add to the list of issues the Democrats can campaign on... the Republicans are trying to do away with the ban on insurance companies to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions.

by Anonymousreply 7010/12/2018

Hate to be a downer, r49, but did you or anyone else actually READ that link? That poll showing Beto ahead by two is from SEPTEMBER 19TH. I don't know why that GOP woman retweeted it. Virtually every poll since Kavanaugh has shown Beto behind and losing ground. He could still win - maybe the youth will actually turn out, and maybe the polls showing Hispanic voters evenly split are wrong. I just wouldn't put any money on it.

I'm the only person in my circle who hasn't gotten my ballot yet, r62. Fuckers better not have lost it in the mail.

by Anonymousreply 7110/12/2018

[quote]MMPH... I just refuse to believe that, [R64]. She might be leading but not by 14. I see that the only one reporting that number is FOX.

You're right to be skeptical but not because the only reporting it is Fox. They had nothing to do with the poll. The NYT's polling this year, particularly in a few key Senate contests is way outside the norm. Now maybe they're right and everyone else is wrong but, right now, anyway, absent some additional confirmation from another pollster, I don't think much of their polling.

by Anonymousreply 7210/12/2018

Thanks, R71. I'm ashamed to say that I looked at the date on the tweet and not at the date on the link, so I got burned by this.

Yes, that was one of two polls in early to mid September that showed Beto ahead. All of the rest of them are showing Cruz leading, although the NYT is still something of an outlier here on the margin of victory.

by Anonymousreply 7310/12/2018

30 seats are really competitive. The Dems need to get at least 11 of them.

by Anonymousreply 7410/12/2018

The Democrats need 23 seats to take back the House. Three seats to take the Senate. That assumes they hold what they have in both houses and add to it.

by Anonymousreply 7510/12/2018

Something is wrong;

"Ted Cruz challenges Beto O’Rourke to CNN debate, bristles at media ‘puff pieces’" (just dropped an hour ago)

"Beto O'Rourke raised $38.1 million in last three months, smashing all records in bid to oust Ted Cruz"

"Beto O'Rourke's War Chest Bothers Some Democrats as He Struggles ..." (I SWEAR democrats can't get out of their own way! Instead of asking if they can help they're worried about the money)

by Anonymousreply 7610/12/2018

RE; Marsha Blackburn

It looks as if only the conservative entertainment media is reporting the 14 point lead. I say that someone at the NYT was bought off.

by Anonymousreply 7710/12/2018

[quote]But if there is even a relatively small GOP wave in red states, we could lose Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester, Donnelly and Manchin even while winning the House by romping in Clinton states and districts. Hell, in Florida the hurricane may just give Scott that tiny little push he needs to take out Nelson.

Heitkamp is certainly in danger of losing, but most of the other Democratic Senators you mention are either in solid shape or still have an even shot.

Manchin has led in every poll I've seen this year -- he's never been in real danger, and forecasters give him very good odds.

After Manchin, the red state Senator with the next best chance is Tester. He has led the polls all year and hasn't been seriously threatened yet.

Donnelly's lead has possibly narrowed a bit this month, but he still is narrowly favored over his Republican challenger.

McCaskill is in a Toss Up with Hawley, but she appears to still have a shot.

As for Nelson, it's hard to say what effect the hurricane in Florida will have on the polls -- we'll have to take a look over the next week.

by Anonymousreply 7810/12/2018

Harry Enten's new analysis.

Looking bad for the Democrats in the Senate, but some positive signs for the Dems in the Midwest pointing towards 2020:

by Anonymousreply 7910/13/2018

Lord only knows why you carry water for those right-wing cunts, R15, but never mind. Here, although they've tried to hide it for ages, is a partial list of the endorsements for Roy Moore. Not too many Rethuglicans are missing.

by Anonymousreply 8010/13/2018

Beto's fine, R76, the nattering bullshit is coming from OUTSIDE of the Democratic Party. It's coming from talking heads on cable news.

The Party let Beto do Beto and have not funded him much, no need. Other candidates would love to get their hands on some of Beto's money but he didn't raise it for them. It's illegal to spend your campaign donations on some other candidate.

by Anonymousreply 8110/13/2018

I have to agree with you R81. The headlines dropping about Ted Cruz makes him sound very scared. Very scared;

"Ted Cruz warns that behind Beto O’Rourke and his cash is rash of ‘radical’ stands

MONTGOMERY -- Sen. Ted Cruz is making a virtue of necessity.Confronted with unwelcome news -- his Democratic opponent is outraising him by more..."

by Anonymousreply 8210/13/2018

It would be nice but i think the dems will have to be happy with just the congress

by Anonymousreply 8310/13/2018

I'm not going to argue with you, r80. I hope all you Beto fans are right and every single poll is wrong (hey, many of the state-level polls were wrong in 2016, so it could happen). I just don't want to see Beto lose and then all the screams of "Russia !" and "Vote Fraud !" start when many of use thought he would lose from the very beginning.

I have also said this many times before, and I'll say it again - is all that money being raised in Texas being put to its best use? We won't find out until election night, and then if I was right and you were wrong it will be too late.

by Anonymousreply 8410/13/2018

If people wanted to donate to someone else, they would, R84. What the fuck are you whining about and what is your proposed remedy?

There is nothing Beto can do about it. Literally, nothing. He can't force people to donate to a different candidate. You're bitching about nothing and you have no fucking point so just go die in a greasefire, ya cunt.

by Anonymousreply 8510/13/2018

Beto needs more Latno votes than he currently has, but obviously, the guy is a gifted campaigner and will keep adjusting.

Jesus FC! Listen, I’m a mess over this as much as one can be. It’s all I think about (in my free time), and I’m doing all kinds of things to help us win. What’s frustrating on this thread is that some of you sound like scared little bitches — you just don’t hear or see like that from their side, they don’t go into fetal position when they’re down in the polls. It’s like you’re creating a self-fulfilling prophesy with the negative energy. Keep your eyes on the mother fucking prize bitches!!!

This doesn’t mean I’m not having all the exact same thoughts and fears. But I truly believe that “you are what you think” and so I choose to not utter these fears aloud because I don’t want to give them more power than they already have. Right actions lead to right thoughts. Put your god damned energy into ACTION. What can YOU do to help in those shakey races? Have you given them money? Are you posting on social media? Are you talking to family/friends? Have you written postcards to voters in those districts? Phone banks? Canvassing? There is a TON you can do!

My biggest goal between now and the election is to connect with one WORKER per day: gas station cashier, grocery cashier, retail workers, restaurant workers, and make small talk and ask if they’re voting. Something like, “hey, I hope you’re registered to vote! Hope you know the only party who gives a damn about your life is the Dems.” If you get a positive response, “That’s great, anything I can do to help you make it to the polls?” If it’s negative, no big deal, just wish them a good day. But TELL them in a single sentence that Dems are fighting for their healthcare and wages and education — the other party is not.

Focus your energy on how you can make a difference. A LOT can happen, keep working.

by Anonymousreply 8610/13/2018

Beto already has the Latino vote down. He now needs the white frauge.

A sexy photo op will do the trick.

by Anonymousreply 8710/13/2018

Cite your source r87, that’s not what I read. I’ve supported him monetarily for a year, I REALLY want him to win. He gives the same energy Obama did when he was an IL Senator (I’m in Chicago), I can just feel it, Beto could be a true star IF he can win this. So I’m rooting hard for him.

by Anonymousreply 8810/13/2018

Also, I get texts from his team to phone bank, but I don’t do it because I’m convinced they won’t like a Yankee on the phone. Call me crazy, but I lived in GA for five years, they don’t like Yankees telling them what to do, so I’m supporting “from afar.”

by Anonymousreply 8910/13/2018

I got another donation solicitation from Republican Senator Dean Heller, Nevada. I wrote access the top: I’m voting straight Democratic ticket. Trump’s a crook! And mailed it back. This is the second solicitation in two weeks.

by Anonymousreply 9010/14/2018

Please consider canvassing if you can. it's does a couple of things: 1. Connects to voters, 2. Tells the campaign who is a yes, a no, an undecided. The campaign can cull the yes and noes, and reach out to the undecided.

If canvassing not for you, you want to help someone in another state, consider phone banking for a campaign.

You can go to postcards for voters. org and get set up to write reminders to voters to vote.

Go to moveon.org and volunteer to text voters.

Volunteer to drive ppl to the polling booths, bring water if they are in line, donate money so ppl can get IDs to vote.

We can win not only congress, but state houses and governorships.

I believe we can hold the senate and pick up a seat.

Thank you for reading my long post.

by Anonymousreply 9110/14/2018

I forgot to add, if you want to donate to a candidate, you can donate directly to their campaign. You don't have to go through a middle man.

by Anonymousreply 9210/14/2018

I don't know anyone who doesn't vote and I don't associate with anyone who supports Trump. I'm peaceful. I'm working to help Mc Caskill and Heidi Heitkamp. Phone calls & money.

by Anonymousreply 9310/14/2018

Look. It's simple. Right now we have to identify our voters. Then we have to get them to the polls. And if you don't have a seriously aggressive absentee voter outreach going on you are fucked. Absentee ballots do not sit. They are usually returned within ten days or less of receiving them. So do not fuck with the AVs. This is the time of harvesting. The GOTV operation depends on the groundwork laid in the next two weeks.

by Anonymousreply 9410/14/2018

Why the Democrats have to beg their base to vote is unconscionable. Trump’s the worst most vile turd imaginable, but still the Democrats have to beg.

by Anonymousreply 9510/14/2018

I don't know what a gotv is. I do know if we are identifying voters in 2 weeks, that's too late. I've been canvassing for 9 weeks, I did 112 houses today. i will canvass until elections. The race is very close.

by Anonymousreply 9610/14/2018

Get Out The Vote, r96

by Anonymousreply 9710/14/2018

I wish Avenatti would shut up on Twitter. He’s unhinged.

by Anonymousreply 9810/14/2018

Well, the Sunday morning talk shows weren't encouraging at all. But, let's not lose focus!

by Anonymousreply 9910/14/2018

Chuck Todd is a conservative asshole, when he wishes a Republican to stay safe on the campaign trail and he dismisses the Black candidate for Georgia Governor who is fighting institutional white racism and an opponent who controls the vote in Georgia.

Todd is a silly fucker who does not think people pay attention.

by Anonymousreply 10010/14/2018

I love you, Pole Troll.

Polling has had a rough go the last 2 years, but the rolling poll method seems to be winning. If you follow a specific group of people who vote in most elections over a lifetime, you get better data.

Thanks for the inside baseball stuff.

by Anonymousreply 10110/14/2018

I live in Illinois and our Republican Governor is about to get TROUNCED in 22 days. He has been consistently down anywhere from 9 to 23 points on the high end in the polls for over a year now and I've never seen anything like it.

It's a weird year because the GOP is of course in trouble nationwide but at the same time some deep blue states are set to re-elect their GOP governors resoundingly in Vermont, Mass and Maryland and yet Rauner is floundering in the polls after his abysmal 4 year term in office. He has alienated both Democrats, Republicans and the middle during his term and his terrible showing at the polls may very well put Sean Casten, Brendan Kelly and Lauren Underwood in office.

I don't know much about Kelly or Underwood but I've been fairly unimpressed with Casten as his opponent Peter Roskam is a strong incumbent but this may be the year that the dominoes fall. For cycle after cycle, we've become so used to the affluent IL-10 district hogging attention because its blue on the presidential level but they like to elect moderate Republicans down ballot. This year it's not even on the board and the prognosticators are rating it as safe Democrat .

It's very strange that we're now being inundated with ads from districts that have been red for decades and Dems never otherwise took seriously as competitive districts. I think we're really going to win the House.

by Anonymousreply 10210/14/2018

Polls have been pointing to a Democratic takeover in the House for months and I believe it will happen but after two years of entirely GOP control in Washington, it really does seem like I'm living in bizarro world that Dems are really on the verge of regaining control of at least one body in Washington. It feels like it's been a decade since Dems have been out of power.

by Anonymousreply 10310/14/2018

I believe that the Blue wave in the House will translate to a Blue Wave ticket.

If that is so, there is every reason to believe that the Senate is in play.

by Anonymousreply 10410/14/2018

Pundits on the Sunday talk shows keep saying things are "tightening" in the Senate races, favoring the GOP, even suggesting the Republicans may increase their majority taking down incumbent Democrats, but I don't think so. They keep referring to the "Kavanaugh bounce" but that was short lived. I'll tell you one thing, and that is that Truth Brad Parscale (remember that name.) and Bill Shine, and possibly Steven Bannon, ( who may be forgotten but is definitely not gone from the scene) know this: It's Nixon on steroids as far as campaign strategies go.

Trump keeps referring to the "angry mob unfit to govern" line about the Democrats. Well, Nixon did the same damned thing in his own way. We were having massive demonstrations against the Vietnam war. There were riots all over the country. So he and Agnew were talking about that "vast silent majority of Americans" who don't demonstrate or riot, but go to work every day, trying to raise their families," and blah, blah, blah. He shit stirred and encouraged a backlash against the demonstrations and it worked. That's what Turmp is doing right now.

What they fail to realize is that these demonstrations are different. They are not dominated by young people as in the 60's and early 70's. When I have been out marching I've seen all ages, races, sexes, etc. including families with little kids. Now the anti Kavanaugh demonstrations were mostly women. But I also know that like Nixon era, these demonstrations have been infiltrated by paid agitators and trouble makers and we will see increasingly aggressive violent behavior coming out of the demonstrations. The complicit media will focus on that violence.

I think we need to chill on the demonstrating for now, and take it to the polls. I believe Trump is just looking for an excuse to declare martial law and really take over. I think guys like Mattis have been blocking that inclination, but if Mattis leaves after the Mid Terms there will be fewer curbs on Trump. I've also noticed a slight moderation in the tone of coverage. Either it's Trump fatigue or it's some kind of resignation, or collective exhaustion, but it seems like there has been a pulling back on the negative coverage of day to day stuff. it took forever but the media attention forced Scott Pruitt out. I don't see the same level of energy. I wonder what the internal polling of their news coverage is telling the networks.

The media jumps all over a spectacle like Kanye, but on policy stuff which is equally outrageous, they seem to be quieting the criticism. If he does start separating families again maybe it will re ignite the outrage, but I sense attempts to normalize unacceptable anti American policies and pronouncements. Congress has been criminally negligent, and derelict in its duties. Maybe the strategy has been to wear us down and exhaust us all along. It helps to preserve your outrage if you cut back and ration your time.

by Anonymousreply 10510/14/2018

I want to see polls in Indiana and Montana to see whether those races have tightened like some of the other races have. Tester is likely a lock for another term because he's kind of an institution there. That's definitely not the case for Donnelly in Indiana and I'm nervous to see how he's doing.

by Anonymousreply 10610/14/2018

Thank you, R105. I needed that pick me up!

by Anonymousreply 10710/15/2018

The most important thing to tell people is vote whole party ticket. The Republican Party of today, as currently constituted is run by a gang of thugs. Period. I keep saying this: Tell people to turn off the TV set and stop worrying about who's "more qualified." Vote for the Democrat. Some of the most reliably Republican/Conservative stalwarts out here, people like George Will, etc. are saying the same thing. The only way to clean house is to vote all of them out. So it doesn't matter who is running. I don't care about smears, charges and countercharges, allegations and scandal. There is nothing anyone can tell me to stop me from voting for the Democrats.

The consequences of allowing the Republicans to run state governments state legislatures and state courts is more voter suppression, more gerrymandering, and a host of laws and regulations to strangle our voices and make our lives harder. They control education, prisons, and the courts that maintain the pipeline to prison. The consequences of them running Congress will result in them giving the wealthy ANOTHER tax cut so they can starve the government, they will reach for Medicare and Social Security, and if you think those things don't affect you remember:Someone will pay.

This is a shell game. They will shift costs to you and me. When your parents can no longer survive will you pay their medical bills or living expenses? When the Republicans abolish coverage for pre-existing conditions what happens to those people? Do they just disappear? Or, when 90% of us want some kind of reasonable gun safety regulations and mass shootings keep happening, who do we turn to when Congress continues to ignore us?

When the Republicans talk about Brett Kavanaugh as if he is a hero, remind your friends about Susan Collins. We cannot afford a Senate where we must depend on people like that to do the right thing. They won't. We cannot afford a Senate led by Mitch McConnell whose stated plan is to pack all the entire federal court system with people like Brett Kavanaugh. We have to put the Senate in play. We need both houses. We cannot depend on people of goodwill doing the right thing. We can't wait for "someone" to save us. We have to do it.

by Anonymousreply 10810/15/2018

Here. Take some comfort from this:

by Anonymousreply 10910/15/2018

Something is very, very, VERY, wrong

Donald Trump Jr. blasts Beto O’Rourke: ‘Irish guy pretending to be Hispanic’

Donald Trump Jr. slammed Beto O'Rourke on Monday, saying the Democratic challenger to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is "pretending" to be Latino.

"What’s authentic about an Irish guy pretending to be Hispanic? Asking for some friends Texas," Trump Jr. tweeted, linking to an article from ABC News that contended O'Rourke has kept the Senate race close partly because of a desire among Democratic voters to see authenticity in candidates.

by Anonymousreply 11010/15/2018

If they're attacking Beto it's because Beto has a good shot of beating Cruz. Latino voters ought to be outraged. It's shocking to me that 40% of Latino voters went for Trump. I pray that changes. One thing I saw today in my Washington Post. Great big photos with headlines about all the starving WHITE PEOPLE in Florida who have not received any help!!!! No power, no food, no water. This is the fucking Florida Panhandle. WTF is the excuse this time? The FEMA operations suck, but so does Governor Scott who is too busy running for the Seante against Nelson, to do his fucking job. We need to raise hell about that. After all those are Republican voters he is screwing over.

by Anonymousreply 11110/15/2018

[quote]If they're attacking Beto it's because Beto has a good shot of beating Cruz.

Yep!

And they're employing the racist strategy. Cruz MUST be seeing numbers that we are not privy to.

[quote]Great big photos with headlines about all the starving WHITE PEOPLE in Florida who have not received any help!!!! No power, no food, no water.

I have no sympathy. However, if they need volunteers to distribute red MAGA hats I'm quite available.

by Anonymousreply 11210/15/2018

[quote]It's a weird year because the GOP is of course in trouble nationwide but at the same time some deep blue states are set to re-elect their GOP governors resoundingly in Vermont, Mass and Maryland and yet Rauner is floundering in the polls after his abysmal 4 year term in office.

The other weird race to me is Scott Walker in Wisconsin ... he was the darling of the Republican Party just two years ago. The last poll I saw had him 10 points behind the Democratic challenger. What made the people of Wisconsin wake up to Walker's con job? (And how do we reproduce the effect on a national level with Trump?)

by Anonymousreply 11310/15/2018

[quote]What made the people of Wisconsin wake up to Walker's con job? (And how do we reproduce the effect on a national level with Trump?)

The State is a mess. It's on the same road as Kansas. TRICKLE DOWN DOES NOT WORK! We've been to this rodeo more than once. Why aren't we learning this is beyond me.

by Anonymousreply 11410/15/2018

R113 also, Scott Walker and the State Republican Party were real effective with voter suppression and gerrymandering. Maybe people in Wisconsin are tired of having their voices muted.

by Anonymousreply 11510/15/2018

Why would I argue? I have no idea what will happen. I have fantasies that the whole Republican party will be run out of town.

by Anonymousreply 11610/15/2018

The thing is, Trump is a crook and he kidnaps children and puts them in camps, why don't the republicans impeach the criminal? Why are people acting as if Trump is a normal politition?

by Anonymousreply 11710/15/2018

As usual tricks are being played to keep Democrats from voting. The point is, Republicans hate Democracy.

by Anonymousreply 11810/15/2018

Of course r118, Republicans are the less popular party. They do better when fewer Americans vote.

That is why making it harder for people to vote is always a priority for them.

by Anonymousreply 11910/15/2018

Yeah, there's always a chance that this a shit outlier poll, but... Heller (R) leading by 7 points in Nevada is a really, really fucking bad sign.

by Anonymousreply 12010/15/2018

[quote] What made the people of Wisconsin wake up to Walker's con job?

Union-busting! A real world consequence that has had a negative impact on the livelihood of WI Deplorables. Followed by the realization that their Republican heroes are less concerned with preserving "white" privilege and preoccupied with preserving "elite" privilege. Deplorables will face a reckoning for voting against their own economic interests.

by Anonymousreply 12110/15/2018

Just remember the message is to vote Democratic. Period. Oh. And vote all the offices, especially your state legislatures. And your state courts, judges, etc. That non partisan judicial ballot is a fake out. Find out who is running and check out the chatter about them and who is endorsing them. By their friends ye shall know them.

by Anonymousreply 12210/15/2018

MMPH! Something is REALLY wrong! Republicans are calling on Jesus... with sincerity!

Steve King Verified account @SteveKingIA

US House candidate, IA-4--I will retweet the devil if the devil tweets, “I Love Jesus.” It’s the message, not the messenger. @DMRegister

by Anonymousreply 12310/15/2018

Yeah I saw that result r120, not good, but it is just one poll. Every other poll has shown a close race.

Plus it is Nevada, which has Harry Reid's impressive GOTV operation. I'm not optimistic about a lot of Senate races, but I have hope about that one.

by Anonymousreply 12410/15/2018

The Senate seems like its out of reach. Ugh! As always the Democrats snatch the defeat from the jaws of victory. At least the House and the Gob elections seems like its going to go their way.

by Anonymousreply 12510/15/2018

The Senate map is historically terrible r125, the Dems were always the big underdog for ever being able to flip the Senate in '18.

I don't know how many times this has to be repeated.

by Anonymousreply 12610/15/2018

Yes, but a Nevada flip should be an easy peasy thing to do. Which seats can the dems win in 2020? Only Colorado?

by Anonymousreply 12710/15/2018

R127 we will win seats with volunteers like yourself who phone bank, write postcards, text voters, donate.

We are not just winning for 2018, we are building for 2020.

by Anonymousreply 12810/15/2018

I WANT THE SENATE!

by Anonymousreply 12910/15/2018

No reason why Rosen shouldn’t beat Heller in Nevada. He’s a Trump disaster.

by Anonymousreply 13010/15/2018

[quote]Yeah, there's always a chance that this a shit outlier poll

It's Emerson, so yeah, it's not the best, as they're a "B" pollster. That's a pretty major outlier from all prior polling so until they're confirmation from another major pollster, you can pretty much ignore it. That said, the polling is showing a slight edge towards Heller.

by Anonymousreply 13110/15/2018

[quote]The last poll I saw had him 10 points behind the Democratic challenger. What made the people of Wisconsin wake up to Walker's con job?

That's another poll that's pretty far out there, although the polling on that race has been pretty scarce. The latest poll is a Marquette poll that came in a week later with Walker +1. There just isn't enough data there, although it's gratifying to find that Walker is in trouble.

by Anonymousreply 13210/15/2018

Nevada is becoming Los Angeles light with all the transplants. I hope Rosen beats him. Heller is an arrogant ass.

by Anonymousreply 13310/15/2018

Really discouraged by that Nevada poll. Emerson is a pretty good pollster.

by Anonymousreply 13410/15/2018

R134,

Here was the result from 2012 Nevada U.S. Senate:

2012 Nevada U.S. Senate: Dean Heller (R), 45.87% | Shelley Berkley (D), 44.71% | Margin: R+1.16

If 2018 Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen—in what is supposed to be a blue wave of a national midterm election year for her party—fails to erase that bare margin, and win a Democratic pickup while unseating Republican incumbent Dean Heller, then she was a horrible candidate.

by Anonymousreply 13510/15/2018

I wouldn’t consider Jacky a horrible candidate. She’s been aggressive going at Heller and has proclaimed him as “Senator Spineless” I’m every ad and it seems to have stuck. She is definitely a step up from the horrible, no good Shelley Berkeley. If Shelley was a competent candidate without a scandal last time around, she would be defending the seat as a Democrat this time around.

by Anonymousreply 13610/15/2018

Ari Melber is reporting that Republicans are starting to fight blaming whoever about why they lost the House.

BUT STAY FOCUSED!!!! GET OUT THE VOTE!!! WE CAN GET THE SENATE!!!

by Anonymousreply 13710/15/2018

SEND A MESSAGE!

by Anonymousreply 13810/15/2018

[quote] But I truly believe that “you are what you think” and so I choose to not utter these fears aloud because I don’t want to give them more power than they already have. Right actions lead to right thoughts

Ah, so you *are* an OCD idiot who believes in your own powers to sway elections by magical thinking.

Called it

You’re always screaming at people who have opinions you consider negative; calling them trolls and Russians. Because.....you’re magical! You’re not going to let people who disagree with you ruin the election with their negativity. It’s up to you to vanquish any doubts or differences so as to save the election!

by Anonymousreply 13910/15/2018

Wow, that video at R138 is something. Where the fuck were they when Trump displayed his lack of a moral compass, his lack of temperament and character issues during the campaign? I'm happy that some of his supporters are changing the way they look at him but they looked the other way when they voted for him in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 14010/15/2018

[quote]Really discouraged by that Nevada poll. Emerson is a pretty good pollster.

Emerson is a decent pollster, although sometimes it has a Republican lean.

However, more than one poll has now shown Rosen losing ground to Heller.

It's still possible that Harry Reid's strong ground operation in Nevada can pull out a win for Rosen, but it's becoming more dicey for her.

by Anonymousreply 14110/15/2018

Poll Troll, you have no idea how hated Heller is in Southern Nevada.

by Anonymousreply 14210/15/2018

God, if we can't take out Heller we're really fucked when it comes to the Senate. Ousting an incumbent is hard but I didn't think it would be such a challenge in an environment like 2018. Rosen has basically done everything right. I can't believe she's still behind with all the ads that have hammered Heller for his flip flop on healthcare.

by Anonymousreply 14310/15/2018

Richard Linklater has released another Beto ad.

by Anonymousreply 14410/16/2018

From a friend of mine who lives in Dallas;

"There is a big amount of support for him.. I see Beto signs everywhere.... like everywhere... He does have a good chance.... I am surprised the Dems are so quiet on showing earlier videos of Trump slamming Cruz..... And they should be. He is a piece of crap. All his adds on tv here are negative about Beto.... nothing positive about him.... just negative about Beto. Whereas, Beto's adds show a positive message.... Lets see..."

by Anonymousreply 14510/16/2018

Turnout soars on the first day of early voting in Georgia

At 69K voters, nearly 3-1/2 times the early voters of 2014 cast a ballot on the first day of early voting in GA

In-person early voting is open in all GA's counties, until Nov. 2

by Anonymousreply 14610/16/2018

Trump voter:

For God's sake. Someone has to do something.

We've got a crazy man driving the train.

He will destroy the country

Part 2

by Anonymousreply 14710/16/2018

VOTE!

by Anonymousreply 14810/16/2018

“I’m mortified every day," Trump voters explain why they regret voting for him.

by Anonymousreply 14910/16/2018

^Oops. Maybe there’s still hope.

by Anonymousreply 15010/16/2018

Ad attacking Sen. Menendez brings up old, unproven allegations that he slept with underage prostitutes.

by Anonymousreply 15110/17/2018

R151, the GOP style is to make accusations and dredge up old scandals. It 's Standard Operating Procedure. People need to turn off the noise. Stop listening to the bullshit, charges counter charges, smears, lies, and negative crap. This year I don't want to hear what anyone "stands for" what anyone is against. I know what the Dems stand for. They want better healthcare, tougher environmental standards, reasonable gun safety regulations, higher minimum wage and they'll fight to preserve Medicare and Social Security. I know how they stand on Gay Rights, Voting Rights, Human Rights. I don't need to listen to the bullshit. Let the GOP spend a fortune making the TV networks fat with all their millions. Fuck them. Just go vote for the Democrat. Period. Fuck all these motherfuckers.

by Anonymousreply 15210/17/2018

Trump has wrapped his arms around the Saudis. Let's hang this barbaric murder of journalist Jamal Kasoggi around his neck. Let's throw blood soaked shirts at him and let him now we will remember this on election day. I'm carrying this message today all over DL and all over my social media accounts. I urge everyone to do likewise. Trump embraces murderers, but this time he has really fucked up. This time the man recorded his own death, hacked to pieces, butchered while he was still alive inside his own country's embassy! Embassies have historically been places of refuge and safety. Trump is truly a monster and if we lose the Midterms he will unleash the worst of it. I believe that in my bones.

by Anonymousreply 15310/17/2018

I wish we had a "truth in advertising" law for political campaigns. Ads are rife with lies, misstatements, misconstruals and outright inventions -- they should be punishable by law. Free speech doesn't mean you're free to make things up about an opponent.

by Anonymousreply 15410/17/2018

Fabulously wealthy Florida Senate candidate Rick Scott -- implicated in a mammoth Medicare fraud before he ran for the Florida governor's office - has been continuing his crooked ways in office, reports the New York Times.

"Mr. Scott, who is now running to unseat the incumbent senator Bill Nelson, created a $73.8 million investment account that he called a blind trust. But an examination of Mr. Scott’s finances shows that his trust has been blind in name only. There have been numerous ways for him to have knowledge about his holdings: Among other things, he transferred many assets to his wife and neither “blinded” nor disclosed them. And their investments have included corporations, partnerships and funds that stood to benefit from his administration’s actions."

by Anonymousreply 15510/17/2018

As if anything will happen to Scott. Power has been bought and paid for by corrupt businesses & politicians and nobody can stop it. The laws and conservative judges are on their side.

by Anonymousreply 15610/17/2018

Interesting....

by Anonymousreply 15710/17/2018

Atlanta Journal Chronicle reporter Ben Brasch:

There’s an estimated wait of 3 hours to vote early for the midterms in Cobb, one of Georgia’s largest counties. Janine Eveler, head of Cobb elections, said some people lined up at 7 a.m. — the polls open at 8 a.m.

(Let's hope that's Democratic enthusiasm at work.)

by Anonymousreply 15810/17/2018

CNN's Andrew Kaczynski:

Eric Trump got asked on conservative talk radio about the "horseshoe face" comment: "America elected a fighter, he's a counter puncher...it's exactly what this country needs and I'm proud of him."

Twitter commenter:

Imagine being proud of your father because he insulted the mistress that he raw dogged while your step-mother was nursing your half-brother. That is what it is to be Eric Trump.

by Anonymousreply 15910/17/2018

Why would someone call this Fat Fuck a "counterpuncher" when he's actually on offense and attacking other people?

Eric Trump is fucking retarded.

by Anonymousreply 16010/17/2018

Beto is going to annihilate Lying Ted.

16 million NEW voter registrations in Texas and they are not even close to falling to the Republicans.

by Anonymousreply 16110/17/2018

R161

Texas has 28 million people.

About 20 million of them are eligible to vote.

Are you seriously stupid enough to believe that 16 million people registered to vote in Texas because of Beto?

by Anonymousreply 16210/17/2018

15.6 million registered voters in Texas, up 11% from the last midterm election.

by Anonymousreply 16310/17/2018

Unfortunately the Senate seems like a long shot, with even losing a couple of seats. On the other side of the coin the House seems pretty much certain with even picking up seats in hardcord deplorable states like Kansas. And up to 8 gobernorships seem also to go to the dems.

by Anonymousreply 16410/17/2018

The problem with reading too much into that number, r163, is that we don't know how much is enthusiasm generated by the Dems or Beto and how much is simply assholes moving into and re-registering in one of the fastest-growing shitholes in the Union. My (thankfully distant) relatives moved there last year, and bigger Trumptard deplorable fuckwits you will never see.

by Anonymousreply 16510/17/2018

That smug piece of shit, McConnell was on TV talking about the possibility of gaining seats for the GOP. That is totally unacceptable. We cannot allow this. I can see them trying to steal seats. I can see Scott in Florida especially trying to steal. And Ted Cruz will do whatever it takes to hold on. This is war. We need to look at what we have and work to hold it, and find two that are vulnerable and go after them. It's a numbers game. I want to get rid of McConnell SO bad!!! I hate him.

by Anonymousreply 16610/18/2018

Wait a minute....

Beto is still in this!

"Texas poised to elect its first two Latina congresswomen"

At a tender age, Sylvia Garcia picked cotton and hacked hay in the fields of south Texas to help her low-income family make ends meet. Veronica Escobar grew up in the border city of El Paso, waiting tables and taking fast food orders during her teenage years.

In a few months, both women could become the first Latinas to represent the Lone Star State in Congress. The two Democratic nominees are running in deep-blue, majority Latino urban districts and are poised to cruise to victory in their respective contests in the November midterms.

"This is the year of women of color," Garcia told CBS News. "This is the year of the Latina."

While Beto isn't Latino he is from El Paso and a Democrat. So????

by Anonymousreply 16710/18/2018

R161 is probably a typo, since the number of new voter registrations in Texas is 1.6M, not 16M.

by Anonymousreply 16810/18/2018

Texas Democrats have registered 16 billion new voters this year. I think Beto has a great chance at beating Cruz.

by Anonymousreply 16910/18/2018

R169, no, it's trillion. 16 Trillion.

by Anonymousreply 17010/18/2018

New TENNESSEE poll:

Vanderbilt poll

Bredesen (D) (44)

Blackburn (R) (43)

---

Bredesen leads with women, Blackburn with men

___

800 registered voters

Oct. 8 to Oct. 13

landlines and cell phones

by Anonymousreply 17110/18/2018

Someone is really not polling Tennessee correctly.

by Anonymousreply 17210/18/2018

I should clarify: I'm not saying this latest poll is inaccurate. But we've got a pretty extreme range of polls in Tennessee. One of these firms is way off.

by Anonymousreply 17310/18/2018

Well, most of the recent polls favor Blackburn, although the new Reuters poll a few days ago showed her lead was narrow.

Now this one has a narrow lead (basically a tie) for Bredesen.

Odds still favor Blackburn winning, but Bredesen still has an outside shot.

by Anonymousreply 17410/18/2018

These fucking state wide elections for Senate are like deja vu all over again. I remember in 2016, the polls diverging widely in some states not all. And the close races and the "narrowing gap" and then Boom. races tighten and suddenly we are fucked.

by Anonymousreply 17510/18/2018

Well, it's certainly true that the Democrats lost some ground in some of the Senate races in 2016.

The Democrats were successful in picking up 2 Senate seats in 2016 -- New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan) and Illinois (Tammy Duckworth).

But in Wisconsin, Russ Feingold's polling lead collapsed as November approached.

And the same happened to Evan Bayh in Indiana.

by Anonymousreply 17610/18/2018

Blackburn is a cunt.

And I should know.

by Anonymousreply 17710/18/2018

Beto town hall talking place on CNN right now.

He seems....animated. lol

by Anonymousreply 17810/18/2018

Wasn't Bredesen leading Blackburn in the polls at one point? He's an excellent, experienced candidate. Why wouldn't it go back his way?

Also, what about MEEEEEEEEEEE?

by Anonymousreply 17910/18/2018

[quote]Wasn't Bredesen leading Blackburn in the polls at one point? He's an excellent, experienced candidate. Why wouldn't it go back his way?

Bredesen had a stronger lead earlier in the year, much of it based on his strong name recognition as a former Governor.

But it's harder today for Democrats to win statewide in Tennessee compared to the days when he was Governor.

by Anonymousreply 18010/18/2018

Beto has finally come out swinging with some good ads. Too late? We shall see.

by Anonymousreply 18110/18/2018

[quote]I should clarify: I'm not saying this latest poll is inaccurate. But we've got a pretty extreme range of polls in Tennessee. One of these firms is way off.

They're being bought off. Who cares about accuracy? If their reputations suffer they will just close down and reopen under a new name. Perception is all that matters.

by Anonymousreply 18210/18/2018

If Bredesen wins it will be because of TSwift.

by Anonymousreply 18310/18/2018

"LOCAL TENNESSEE RESTAURANT OWNER FACING THREATS OVER RENTING VENUE TO SEN. CANDIDATE REP. BLACKBURN"

A local restaurant owner in Mt. Juliet, Tennessee has faced backlash since he rented out his event room for U.S. Senate candidate Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn on Saturday.

Tom Courtney of Courtney’s Restaurant and Catering rented out the space for Blackburn to host a meet-and-greet last weekend.

“People have posted they love our food, but will no longer come to the restaurant,” Courtney told The Wilson Post. “I have never in my life experienced such a thing. It’s scary.”

Ya know... I'm just not buying all of this Republican whining. I think that they are the ones doing all of this stuff...

by Anonymousreply 18410/18/2018

On Sept 30 Democrats had a 31% chance of flipping the Senate,Oct 18 it’s 21%. I think election day, Nov 6th, depends on whether minority voters are silently waiting to pull it all out like black women did for Doug Jones. Polls have a hard time reflecting the minority vote.

The polls shift downward seems to be Repubs running back to their party because of the Kavanaugh bomb in the Senate.

by Anonymousreply 18510/18/2018

^^Nate Silver

by Anonymousreply 18610/18/2018

The polls tightened due to dark, Russian and billionaire money pouring in for the Repugnants.

by Anonymousreply 18710/18/2018

That Veritas video of McCaskill staffers, and her claim that Hawley helped set it up, has put her on the deep defensive. Every article is hammering her response and evasive denials.

Apparently PV has several more videos of staffers saying the same things. They’re releasing another one tomorrow that allegedly refutes her most recent denial. The gun control issues are probably going to be the deciding factor.

I wonder what her next round of poll numbers will look like. She was in a dead heat before the videos.

2+ weeks in an election that is going to see the highest turnout for a midterm in 70 years is a lifetime.

Many of the voters a tenuous voters, energized now, but any missteps could be disastrous.

Bredesen vs Blackburn is a similar situation. Shady ops to discover dirt are underway all over the country.

by Anonymousreply 18810/18/2018

FWIW, I don’t vote. Neither party actually wants to fix the systemic problems.

A tax code that encourages savings and investments

Enact a foreign policy that keeps the USA secure and leaves the rest of the world alone

End the unelected, tenured, incomptent bureaucracy that makes things like drug discovery and innovation haphazard,

End to the fact that we have the largest per capita prison population due to insane drug laws

End the unsustainable deficit that is already consuming more in interest payments than education, infrastructure, and ALL (non Senior) welfare programs,

End an entrenched and incredibly powerful conglomeration of international industries, military manufacturers, and bureaucrats turned lobbyists turned more powerful bureaucrats and then into more powerful lobbyists.

Bureaucrats will protect their jobs with violence.

Unfortunately, none of these policies will ever be embraced by either side until the final collapse of Keynesian based policies destroys the credibility of the Infallible Experts.

by Anonymousreply 18910/18/2018

r189 wrong thread. You were looking for 'Let's be a Russian Troll Farm.' You're welcome.

by Anonymousreply 19010/18/2018

what videos, r188?

No linky

by Anonymousreply 19110/18/2018

R191

Not linking to videos. You can search yourself. Here’s a video.

Apparently the DEAD perv in Nevada is now expected to win, because Republicans who didn’t feel comfortable with a brothel owner will now vote since they can pick another republican.

by Anonymousreply 19210/18/2018

So what's the "threat" the restaurant guy found so scary?

Someone posted online that they liked the food in the place but since they hate Marsha Blackburn they're not going to eat there anymore. And he's freaking out? He's scared? It's "news" for some reason?

Fucking attention-whore snowflake.

by Anonymousreply 19310/18/2018

Claire's fine. She fucking KILLED Hawley in their debate tonight. They say it's why he's going all out with the smear campaign but I'm sure he would have done it even if he hadn't lost so bad.

by Anonymousreply 19410/18/2018

I firmly believe that Democrats stopped participating in polling months ago.

Their rage at Trump is palpable.

We are seeing triple the number of voters in races where there are projected dead heats.

These races will not be dead heats.

by Anonymousreply 19510/18/2018

The Republicans are out here boldly lying, smearing, falsifying their own record in Congress and offering nothing. Their entire campaign is attacking the opponent, not proposing anything. Now I will say this. Since I have worked on many campaigns, national and local: Negative campaigning doesn't change minds. Negative campaigning discourages voters. It suppresses the vote. The Republicans benefit from that. They get their "grievance voters" out and the Dems and Indies get discouraged and stay home. So turn off the TV sets. Tell your friends to ignore everything. Tell them to remember what the Republicans have done. How they went after Obamacare, what? 57 times and they're still talking about it? Remember when they went through all that nonsense and then had no plan of their own to replace it with? Look at Mitch McConnell. "My job is to see him fail." That is what he said the day after Obama got elected. They cut taxes for the wealthy and they have nothing to offer voters. Nothing. It's all smoke and mirrors to them. They have a plan. Starve government and privatize everything. No accountability. And let the masses fight one another.Give them red meat, scare them. We have to remind people of this. Don't overwhelm sometime voters with policy stuff keep it simple. But mainly tell them to judge people by their actions and the GOP cannot withstand that scrutiny. So turn off the TV ads and just vote for the Democrats. All the way.

by Anonymousreply 19610/19/2018

At this point I'm not even confident the House will flip. The Trumptards will never change. They're mentally deficient and will follow that fat fuck and the Republicans in Congress to their deaths if need be. They're brain dead cretins.

by Anonymousreply 19710/19/2018

McConnell’s lies about SS and Medicare should be in every ad for the Democrats.

by Anonymousreply 19810/19/2018

Exactly, R198! Democrats should be running those ads right now!. Also, they should run a split screen showing Republicans promising to destroy ObamaCare versus what they are trying to say now.

by Anonymousreply 19910/19/2018

Yep, Democrats lack a cohesive message

by Anonymousreply 20010/19/2018

Hopefully that's happening. The window for new ads is closing. If you're working with a political consultant and he convinces you to spend another $20,000 you don't have to shoot "just one more" TV ad, fire him. It takes a minimum of twelve exposures for an ad to have the desired effect and penetrate a voter's psyche to remember it and be affected by it.

Right now every effort should go to GOTV. keep identifying your support keep reaching out, knock on doors, go where voters are and say hello, please let's work together to make sure we have decent healthcare good educational opportunities and that we can work to have stronger environmental laws. keep it simple. Talk about job insecurity, and make sure they know that if Mitch McConnell cuts Social Security and Medicare we will all pay for it. Cutting social programs and cutting taxes doesn't solve anything. It just shifts the costs onto the state or the city, and most assuredly to us the voters.

Focus on your absentee ballots, your early voters, and get people moving. Push them. If some jerk smiles and says, I don't vote, it doesn't do any good, anyway. Look at them as if they are an alien from outer space. Peer pressure them into feeling remorseful. ...and hopefully the Trump supporters will stay home. Whether they do or not, remember, there are a lot more of us than there are of them.

by Anonymousreply 20110/19/2018

Sorry r189, but I didn't read beyond "FWIW, I don't vote"

by Anonymousreply 20210/19/2018

I’m mailing my absentee ballot today.

by Anonymousreply 20310/19/2018

"Think You’re Having a Hard Time? I’ve Got $5M Worth of Negative Ads Coming at Me."

Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA), commiserating with an inmate in the Chesterfield County Jail’s addiction support group.

by Anonymousreply 20410/19/2018

Dave Brat's opponent, Abigail Spanberger, gave him one hell of a smackdown, R204 (copying a twitter video that was posted on another thread here). The race there is considered a tossup.

by Anonymousreply 20510/19/2018

I actually told several people "if you don't vote, you can't bitch" when I was out canvassing for Clinton.

They were "too busy" or "she's gonna win anyway". This was in a swing state that Clinton lost. I'm still fucking pissed at those idiots.

by Anonymousreply 20610/19/2018

And, this is why Republicans win. They KNOW how stupid the American people are. This is NYC?

by Anonymousreply 20710/19/2018

Do straight guys wear tight t-shirts like this? Do they spend this much time on their hair and appearance?

by Anonymousreply 20810/19/2018

[quote]Unfortunately, none of these policies will ever be embraced by either side until the final collapse of Keynesian based policies destroys the credibility of the Infallible Experts.

Considering that Keynesian economic theories have pretty much been vindicated over the past decade (unlike, say, Austrian economics, which got everything badly wrong), I think you'll have a long wait.

by Anonymousreply 20910/19/2018

[quote]That Veritas video of McCaskill staffers, and her claim that Hawley helped set it up, has put her on the deep defensive.

Not at all. She actually (and quite publicly) [italic]voted[/italic] in 2-13 for what they caught her saying in that supposed sting. So apparently she says in private what she does publicly in the Senate. Wow! That's awful! Clearly, she needs to be strung up and we need to bow down to O'Keefe!

[quote]Every article is hammering her response and evasive denials.

Really? Because I'm reading the articles now and I can't find a single one that is "hammering her response."

[quote]Apparently PV has several more videos of staffers saying the same things.

That's probably because she voted, quite publicly, for it in the Senate. This isn't exactly a secret. And she's hammering Hawley for refusing to open an investigation into the potentially illegal activities.

by Anonymousreply 21010/19/2018

I loved this headline: "Claire McCaskill Revealed to Be a Democrat in James O'Keefe's Boring 'Expose'"

[quote]In a bombshell of Totally Journalistic Proportions, James O'Keefe this week revealed that politician Claire McCaskill, a sitting U.S. senator, is actually a Democrat. In Missouri.

by Anonymousreply 21110/19/2018

Oh... figures that the guy falsely trashing McCaskill is the same idiot who says he doesn't vote and wrote that silly rant about Keynesian policies.

by Anonymousreply 21210/19/2018

[quote]That Veritas video of McCaskill staffers, and her claim that Hawley helped set it up, has put her on the deep defensive.

Oh, please... Your comment is proof positive that you are simply nothing more than a troll. You're really going to try and post and/or mention James O'Keefe's mess here? On this board? Among this audience?

You have also proven yourself to be a dumb ass...

by Anonymousreply 21310/19/2018
by Anonymousreply 21410/20/2018

Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump

All levels of government and Law Enforcement are watching carefully for VOTER FRAUD, including during EARLY VOTING. Cheat at your own peril. Violators will be subject to maximum penalties, both civil and criminal!

Your Fuhrer has spoken!

by Anonymousreply 21510/20/2018

Oh! They're just throwing anything out there now;

Trump says GOP working on tax plan for middle class (Congress isn't in session, by the way)

Trump: All Republicans will support people with pre-existing conditions 'after I speak to them'

Republicans Are Now Running as the Defenders of Healthcare—While Simultaneously Trying to Gut It This is a shameless gaslighting extravaganza, featuring President Trump and a host of 2018 candidates.

by Anonymousreply 21610/20/2018

FYI;

Just a reference for everyone

by Anonymousreply 21710/22/2018

I'm sad to say, but I've consciously decided to go with the probability that the Dems will not take either the House or the Senate in the mid terms and as soon as the election is over the GOP will go wild trying to destroy the US as most know it. Soup lines at churches, gays rounded up and arrested in bars, gay marriage revoked, abortion repealed, and I don't even want to think what else they'll come up with. This is my only defense mechanism against the ultimate disaster that will happen if the Dems don't at least take the House. As far as I'm concerned if the GOP keeps both houses of Congress then the US is not worth saving. At my age it'll just be a waiting game until I die. I'm too old to try for anything better somewhere else. If I assume the worst will happen then maybe the disappointment won't be so earth shattering to my emotions if the Dems don't win. If they do then the win will be that much more fantastic.

This is completely opposite from the way I usually think. I usually expect the best, and prepare for the worst. But the situation now is so dire that I have to come up with a different strategy for my personal mental well being.

by Anonymousreply 21810/22/2018

To this day I still can't fathom how a country who could elect Barack Obama not once, but 2 times, could turn around the put the absolute vile corrupt scum in charge that we have now. I just pray enough of those people who turned completely around during the last election have by now realized the stupidity of their actions so that we can get back on track.

by Anonymousreply 21910/22/2018

What really irritates me about the way the Democrats operate is that they just sit back and let Trump and the Republicans in Congress and in every state sling all these obvious lies and rarely do we see any Democrat call them out on their lies. They just sit back and take it. We're not going to win if the Democrats all over the country don't strap on a pair and start fighting fire with fire. Too many voters see the Dems as weaklings with no fire in their guts. And sadly for the most part they may be right. We can't win on hope, or turning the other cheek, or trying to be better people than the Republicans. Democrats need to start showing some real anger.

by Anonymousreply 22010/22/2018

2 weeks is an eternity in politics. Polls will go up and down between now and then. Also, keepi in mind polls focus on "likely voters" Many people who never vote are primed to vote this time around. On both sidses. The key to the game is turnout. Get off the internet and make calls or volunteer to bring someone to the polls. This is all about turnout, not likely voters. Talk positively to people on the fence, help get them to where they need to go. Don't sit back and bitch

by Anonymousreply 22110/22/2018

Dems a ren't sitting back. At all. You can't be a spectator. Get involved. I got e-mail from Indivisible telling me about who to phone bank. They targetted about eight races. Those candidates need help. So connect with Indivisible, or your local Democratic party and help. All you need is a phone. YOu can make calls from your house, on your schedule. Work on GOTV. Volunteer to drive people, etc. There's a lot of work to do, a short time in which to do it. We have two more weekends. Two. Get moving.

by Anonymousreply 22210/22/2018

STAY FOCUSED!!! VOTE! GET OUT THE VOTE!

Ted Cruz Is a Desperate Man--If he beats challenger Beto O'Rourke to stay in the Senate, it'll be thanks to the Texan's ugly, fearmongering campaign.

Smash cut to 2018, and Cruz’s slide down the politics shit-tube has only accelerated. He is fighting for his political life against Beto O’Rourke, a charismatic and energetic young challenger who could actually turn a statewide Texas election for the Democrats. (Cruz has been leading in the polls, but not by an insurmountable amount.) And Cruz seems to have decided that there is only one real route to victory for him, especially in a GOP landscape that was bulldozed and redeveloped by the man who had humiliated him in 2016—a man who’s approval he now needs. This has resulted in some pretty wild-swing attacks on O’Rourke, many of them coming from Cruz-associated social media accounts, pro-Cruz PAC television spots, and even Cruz himself.

Cruz is likely embracing the negative because he can’t get a positive news cycle to save his life. He has no friends in the Senate purely because of his personality. He can’t stop getting trolled by young people. He gets run out of restaurants. He needs to kiss up to Trump to win the election. The headlines you see about poor, soggy Ted do not paint the picture of a man on the rise, or even a man who is keeping it together. If you’re familiar with how momentum works in sports, you probably get the idea.

by Anonymousreply 22310/22/2018

New *FLORIDA* poll

SENATE

SurveyUSA

BILL NELSON (D) 49 percent

RICK SCOTT (R) 41 percent

***

An 8-point lead for Nelson seems like a bit of an outlier, but it shows a big turnaround for Nelson compared to the previous SurveyUSA poll which had Scott ahead.

***

The online poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, included 665 likely and actual voters across Florida (voters who either already mailed in a ballot or were likely to vote on or before Nov. 6).

by Anonymousreply 22410/22/2018

[quote]An 8-point lead for Nelson seems like a bit of an outlier

Not that much, perhaps, considering that Quinnipiac has Nelson at +6 and CNN has him at +5. I hope that holds, as Scott is one of the most vile men in politics and I really would like him both gone and humiliated. I'll settle for gone, though.

by Anonymousreply 22510/22/2018

KISSES, POLL TROLL!!!! KISSES!!!!

by Anonymousreply 22610/22/2018

How are we feeling about Tennesse? Please do not give up hope on turning it blue .

by Anonymousreply 22710/22/2018

Two weeks left, Scott is still within striking distance. 5 point lead is not enough. Nelson needs help. We have to get people out to vote. I can't stand Rick Scott. He's a despicable human being, and we can finally be rid of him. Finally! Kick that motherfucker's ass.

by Anonymousreply 22810/22/2018

If DeSantis (hopefully) loses this bid for Governor, does he still have his House seat? Or did he give it up in order to run for Governor?

by Anonymousreply 22910/22/2018

He quit his House seat, r229.

by Anonymousreply 23010/22/2018

Thanks r230.

by Anonymousreply 23110/22/2018

R227, Tennessee is not looking very good. We have dueling polls there, with the Siena/NY Times poll insisting that Blackburn is up by 14 points while SSRS has Bredesen up by 1. Both of these polls are big outliers, though, with the average going to Blackburn by 4 to 5 points.

by Anonymousreply 23210/22/2018

STAY FOCUSED!!!!

GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!

for Democrats of course....

by Anonymousreply 23310/22/2018

Fuck. Blackburn is such a cunt.

by Anonymousreply 23410/22/2018

[quote]Both of these polls are big outliers, though, with the average going to Blackburn by 4 to 5 points.

SHIT!

It's time to bring out the voodoo dolls.

by Anonymousreply 23510/22/2018

Cheers [R232] I am still not giving up hope as despondency is a massive demotivator and should be resisted but thanks for replying .

by Anonymousreply 23610/22/2018

Completely agree, R236. And the fact that there is such wide variation in Tennessee is actually something of a good sign, as it's possible that nobody really does know what's going on there, which means that there is still a possibility. I want to see what the next poll shows, as that might show just which of the two most recent polls is more likely to be correct.

by Anonymousreply 23710/22/2018

[quote]Not that much, perhaps, considering that Quinnipiac has Nelson at +6 and CNN has him at +5.

And in theory, Nelson should be ahead in Florida by about 7 points, according to an analysis by 538 on the fundamentals of the race.

But because Rick Scott is a 2-term Governor, he's making the race more competitive for Nelson than it normally would be for such a long-term Senator.

by Anonymousreply 23810/22/2018

Not to mention the millions of his own fortune that Scott is spending on this, Poll Troll. Although Scott's spending advantage has been wiped out by third party spending, with one estimate that this race is costing over $125 million, overall, the most expensive Senate race of 2018. The governor's race is consuming the same amount, so over a quarter billion dollars for these two races in this one state, which is absolutely insane.

by Anonymousreply 23910/22/2018

Scott has used nearly $40 million of his own money on this race, which is a few million short of what he spent on each of his races for governor.

by Anonymousreply 24010/22/2018

IOW, if Scott couldn't self fund, he would have been yesterday's news several years ago.

Ugly skeletal scumbag!

by Anonymousreply 24110/22/2018

Poor Baby Dump cannot get above 47% (an outlier) his entire term with "winning" and all. The majority of the US citizens despise our "president". He has to be one of the most disapproved president as far as longevity in history.

by Anonymousreply 24210/22/2018

Huge Trump rally in Texas. I think Betto is gone

by Anonymousreply 24310/22/2018

Yeah, we get it, R243; you're here to troll. Just move on and stop being so pathetic about it.

by Anonymousreply 24410/22/2018

I’d prefer the Texas Deplorables are at the Klan rally while the Democrats are voting early.

by Anonymousreply 24510/22/2018

Hey, put down the Vodka, Alexei. It is BETO. GEEZUS, isn't it like morning in Moscow? You Russians are pathetic drunks.

by Anonymousreply 24610/22/2018

'Delusional fools like r246 still think that their "betto" is going to win

These are same people who will behave like a headless chicken on election night. Then they will blame Putin for "betto's loss

by Anonymousreply 24710/22/2018

Few people here think that Beto is going to win, R247, particularly with the polling the way it is. But your trolling is really just pathetic.

This is what you're going with? "Huge Trump rally in Texas. I think Betto is gone"? Seriously? Clearly, you're not bringing your A game. Or any game at all. That's just sad.

by Anonymousreply 24810/22/2018

umm R248, even DNC Chair Perez: is saying "We always knew that this election was going to be close."

So tell me what happened to the big BlueWave ?

by Anonymousreply 24910/22/2018

I can't believe FL is on the verge of electing Andrew Gillium as FL governor. I was in panic during the primary in August and thought he would get steamrolled and take Nelson down with him but not it appears he and Nelson are helping each other and working as a team.

Dude is going to be president one day. His performance at the debate on Sunday was nothing short of masterful.

by Anonymousreply 25010/23/2018

Gillum has a backbone to fight back and expose GOP lies as they’re being said. Democrats, take note.

by Anonymousreply 25110/23/2018

no

by Anonymousreply 25210/23/2018

Gillum winning would be an amazing plus for Democrats since 2020 census would be under his watch. I'm praying there is a blue wave for Governors.

I'm predicting a Republican pick up of 2 or 3 seats in the Senate and hopefully a Dem pickup in the House of 35 to 40 seats. I can live with that.

by Anonymousreply 25310/23/2018

Trump's rally in Texas was not well attended. He got a stadium for 18,000 people and it was less than half full.

by Anonymousreply 25410/23/2018

[quote]Trump's rally in Texas was not well attended. He got a stadium for 18,000 people and it was less than half full.

Any sources to back that up, R254? That DEFINITELY IS NOT how the right is portraying it.

by Anonymousreply 25510/23/2018

Nor how the media is portraying it

by Anonymousreply 25610/23/2018

r255, and as we know, the right always tells the truth.

by Anonymousreply 25710/23/2018

Okay, let's not be ugly this morning, R257. Most of know that the right barely tells the truth but here's the thing... unfortunately, their propaganda is resonating among the people. We are in very dangerous times when people are not accepting facts.

R254, made a statement. I hope it's true. But, can it be supported with facts?

by Anonymousreply 25810/23/2018

Here's one article. I'll try to find the piece I saw about the Texas rally, complete with a photo of the empty seats, on Twitter, taken by a news outlet.

by Anonymousreply 25910/23/2018

Tommy Christopher who's part of the White House Press Corp on twitter. Had video, @tommyxtopher and remarked on the rally. He works for Share Blue now.

by Anonymousreply 26010/23/2018

[quote]umm R248, even DNC Chair Perez: is saying "We always knew that this election was going to be close."

Nice non sequitur, since that has nothing at all to do with R248's post.

[quote]So tell me what happened to the big BlueWave ?

You really are a special kind of stupid, aren't you?

by Anonymousreply 26110/23/2018

[quote]I can't believe FL is on the verge of electing Andrew Gillium as FL governor. I was in panic during the primary in August and thought he would get steamrolled and take Nelson down with him but not it appears he and Nelson are helping each other and working as a team.

Gillum does still have the edge in the FL Governor's race.

His numbers have held up pretty well since the primaries, although some recent polls have shown that his lead may have narrowed post-Kavanaugh.

538 ranks the FL Governor's race as "Likely D" with a 78% chance of a win.

by Anonymousreply 26210/23/2018

A Gillum win in Florida would be huge. Remember Florida governors have recently been all hardcore Republican assholes.

by Anonymousreply 26310/23/2018

There hasn't been a Democratic governor elected in Florida this entire century!!

by Anonymousreply 26410/23/2018

The Democrats should be blaming Trump and the Republicans for the Caravan. They control all branches of gov’t.

by Anonymousreply 26510/23/2018

I want Andrew Gillum to fuck me hard. Hot daddy.

by Anonymousreply 26610/23/2018

he is pretty sexy, r266

by Anonymousreply 26710/23/2018

@saramvalentine

10/31—Halloween

11/2—Day of the Dead

11/4—Set your clocks back

11/6—Take your country back

by Anonymousreply 26810/23/2018

Dem senators in danger of losing in order: Heitkamp (most likely), Mccaskill, Donelly, Tester, Nelson and Manchin (the last two IMO are pretty much out of the danger zone).

by Anonymousreply 26910/23/2018

I think that's right, R269. I think Heitkamp is toast unfortunately. ND has moved far right in the past 6 years. I'd give better than 50-50 odds for McCaskill and Donnelly.

by Anonymousreply 27010/23/2018

We can make up for Heitkamp by electing Sinema and Rosen in AZ and NV. Both are pure toss-ups IMO.

by Anonymousreply 27110/23/2018

R269:

Manchin is basically guaranteed to win. I don't think there's been a single poll all year showing him behind. Forecasters give him overwhelming odds of victory.

The next safest on that list is probably actually Tester. Whereas Nelson is somewhat vulnerable (although stronger now than he was), Tester hasn't really been seriously threatened all year, and forecasters give him almost as good odds as Manchin.

Donnelly has a smaller advantage, but he is still favored to win.

And even McCaskill is slightly favored to win right now, although Missouri is tight.

R271 is correct that Sinema and Rosen are Tossups. Sinema was favored until recently (and still is in some forecasts) but Nate Cohn thinks that Sinema has lost ground to McSally in recent polls.

Rosen trails Heller in the polls, but could pull out a win if Harry Reid's ground operation remains strong.

by Anonymousreply 27210/23/2018

The early numbers look decent for Dems in Nevada whereas they're not so good for Dems in Arizona.

Heller and McSally are running towards Trump because he is overwhelmingly popular with the base. Catherine Cortez Masto was arguably elected in 2016 because her GOP opponent Joe Heck ran away from Trump. He calculated that Trump would lose badly and it cost him at the polls from outraged Trump supporters. The same could be said for Kelly Ayotte in NH and Mark Kirk to a lesser extent in IL.

by Anonymousreply 27310/23/2018

R273, the lackluster early numbers for the Dems in Arizona could be a sign of what Nate Cohn was saying about Sinema's declining chances in AZ.

In 2016, Heck probably also lost because a) Hillary beat Trump in NV and b) Harry Reid's ground operation helped Cortez Masto.

It's hard to know what determined the New Hampshire race because it was so close between Ayotte and Hassan. As was the NH race between Hillary & Trump, which Hillary only narrowly won.

As for Mark Kirk, the fundamentals of the race in Illinois were always against him, so he probably would have lost to Duckworth regardless of what he did.

by Anonymousreply 27410/23/2018

I agree, R274. I'm not saying that Cortez Masto (who's fantastic BTW!) won because Heck distancing himself some from Trump, but that certainly played a roll. I live in Illinois and there were signs at my polling station from Trump supporters that said not to vote for Kirk because all the bad stuff he said about Trump. Kirk was always going to lose (some of which because of the disgusting racist garbage he directed at Duckworth), but it certainly diminished his standing from some vocal Trump supporters at the ballot box.

by Anonymousreply 27510/23/2018

role*

by Anonymousreply 27610/23/2018

I cant' stand McConnell. The thought of that fucker holding on to the Senate or even possibly gaining another seat or two makes me physically ill.

by Anonymousreply 27710/23/2018

I really hope that the Democrats can take back the House and the Senate. I can't stand this Putin/Reagan/Nixon combo in the White House. We have been and are in dire straits. Every so-called Christian Trumpster that I know wants to have a conversation about Trump, but I refuse to engage. I wonder if they even have a heart when they try to justify this 'being's' behavior.

Is Trump succeeding at blaming the Democrats for the 'caravan of immigrants'? A Trumpster told me that the Democrats are paying people to be in this caravan. This is causing me a lot of concern.

by Anonymousreply 27810/23/2018

I'm watching a replay of the Georgia debate. How does an alarm go off 5 minutes into the debate??? And no, it's not a fire alarm.

by Anonymousreply 27910/23/2018

There are more Dems than Reps and more Inds are going to vote Dem. It’s all about who actually votes (and how the votes get counted). The numbers are out there. I still don’t think most Trump supporters are even really excited to vote for him now. Fingers crossed for the Blue Wave.

by Anonymousreply 28010/23/2018

Cortez Masto won because Nevada is getting bluer by the minute. Rosen should beat Heller if she attacks him in taxes, spending, and ACA.

by Anonymousreply 28110/23/2018

VOTE!

by Anonymousreply 28210/23/2018

New Reuters Senate polls

Texas - 49-44% Cruz Nevada - 47-41%

Both were online polls conducted in English. Yet another lead for Cruz and Heller but it's hard to believe that the Texas race is tighter than the NV race.

by Anonymousreply 28310/24/2018

Texas - 49-44% Cruz

Nevada - 47-41% Heller**

by Anonymousreply 28410/24/2018

Jon Ralston, an expert in Nevada politics, pointed out recently that Heller has never lost an election. He was a member of the House of Representatives and was Nevada Secretary of State. He has a long & successful career at winning elections.

He has turned out to be a tougher opponent for Rosen than she expected.

However, it's still possible that Rosen can score a narrow win over Heller if Harry Reid's ground operation is able to outperform the polling deficit. It's happened before.

by Anonymousreply 28510/24/2018

[quote]Jon Ralston, an expert in Nevada politics, pointed out recently that Heller has never lost an election.

There's a first time for everything....

by Anonymousreply 28610/24/2018

True, R286.

And when I had a brief conversation with Jon Ralston a couple weeks ago, I talked about the possibility that Harry Reid's ground operation could deliver for Rosen in the way it did for Reid over Sharron Angle in 2010 and for Cortez Masto & Hillary Clinton in 2016.

He's basically just trying to remind people that it's still a competitive race and that people wrote off Heller too soon earlier this year.

by Anonymousreply 28710/24/2018

Rosen has to hope there will be a massive Dem surge and these pollsters are underestimating Latino turnout.

by Anonymousreply 28810/24/2018

It's all smoke & mirrors....

by Anonymousreply 28910/25/2018

Heller’s an asshole. Obama was just campaigning in Nevada. Hopefully, it’ll help Rosen.

by Anonymousreply 29010/25/2018

that is awesome, r289! LMAO

by Anonymousreply 29110/25/2018

Voted straight Democrat today bitches!

by Anonymousreply 29210/25/2018

[quote]Rosen has to hope there will be a massive Dem surge and these pollsters are underestimating Latino turnout.

Some of the Nevada polls have shown Heller doing better with Latinos than expected.

Another issue is that some stats show that about half of Latinos in Nevada aren't registered to vote.

So it's hard to predict what the Latino turnout will be until November 6.

by Anonymousreply 29310/25/2018

WOW.... (just dropped)

"New anti-Ted Cruz super PAC, Texas Forever, launches $1.2 million TV ad blitz in Dallas"

People are going to get Beto fatigue!

by Anonymousreply 29410/25/2018

Nate Cohn reports that early polling numbers tonight from NYT/Siena in Forida are showing good numbers for Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum.

Too soon to reach any conclusions until the final polling numbers are completed, but it's a positive sign for Dems in Florida so far.

by Anonymousreply 29510/25/2018

The right-leaning Dallas Morning News has endorsed Beto.

by Anonymousreply 29610/26/2018
by Anonymousreply 29710/26/2018

Cook moves New Jersey Senate race (aka @SenatorMenendez reelection) from Lean Dem to "toss-up."

Menendez should have resigned and let a scandal-free Dem run.

by Anonymousreply 29810/26/2018

I don't think the data justify that decision, given that Menendez has never been behind in any poll and that he's got a fairly comfortable lead right now. This is all they've got, which strikes me as an inadequate rationale for that decision.

[quote]The biggest threat to Menendez’s re-election is not so much Hugin than it is the voter who goes to the polls and decides to send Menendez a message, much the way many did in the primary when 38 percent voted for his unknown primary opponent. There is certainly a thumb on the scale for Menendez, who is said to have a lead of between four and six points, in this very blue state, but the race is close enough to warrant a move to Toss Up.

by Anonymousreply 29910/26/2018

R299. Agreed, Dems in NJ are prepared to hold their noses and vote for Menendez.

by Anonymousreply 30010/26/2018

After the Brett K fiasco, Dems have every right to vote for whatever has as D by their name. FUCK the Repugs. They put that POS on the SC for life.

Jason Voohees (D)- yep Michael Myers (D)- yep Leatherface (D)- yep

Fuck them!

by Anonymousreply 30110/26/2018

Something is VERY wrong....

The latest from Ted Cruz;

Ted Cruz Verified account @tedcruz US Senate candidate, TX

Tens of millions flooding into Texas from liberals all over the country.... It’s a good thing Hollywood leftists can’t vote in Texas! #DontCaliforniaMyTexas

and

Ted Cruz Verified account @tedcruz US Senate candidate, TX

On the way to Galveston! Register below if you haven't done so already ⬇️ www(dot)eventbrite(dot)com/o/ted-cruz-for-senate-8321610348 …

To still be begging for people to attend your rally at this late date?

by Anonymousreply 30210/26/2018

He's been spooked for months, R302. Nobody expected this to be anything less than an easy walk to victory once he made it past the primary, even for someone who is the most thoroughly disliked member of the Senate. Even with his polling numbers, he's still not 100% confident of his victory, so he's going all out on the attack and on tactics like this.

by Anonymousreply 30310/26/2018

NYT/Siena is almost finished their Florida polling, and it looks like the leads for Bill Nelson & Andrew Gillum have shrunk to about 4-5 points.

Still, that's not bad considering the strong challenge Nelson has faced from Scott or considering that Gillum is trying to become Florida's first Black Governor.

by Anonymousreply 30410/27/2018

Mr. Poll Troll, please don't set me up for heartbreak....

Andrew... Ahem... Mayor Gillum is STILL getting A LOT of traction from his last debate performance!

by Anonymousreply 30510/27/2018

Yes, Gillum is still favored to win (as is Nelson).

These polls are just a reminder that Gillum & Nelson can't take anything for granted. Florida has a large Republican base.

It's not a state like Massachusetts where Elizabeth Warren currently has a 30-point lead on her challenger.

by Anonymousreply 30610/27/2018

R289 Hillary 2016 2.0. I wouldn't be surprised if Beto pulls out the win. Those types of upsets are rarely ever captured in polling.

by Anonymousreply 30710/27/2018
by Anonymousreply 30810/28/2018

I don't want to get too optimistic. I'm phone banking and doing what I can. I keep remembering the trauma of Black Tuesday 2016. When we were winning ...until we weren't. Don't worry about polls. Just do your best and lets turn out the vote. We need to do penance for 2010, when people didn't show up, and the Democrats held a majority in both houses. We gave it away and now we have this shit show.

by Anonymousreply 30910/28/2018

I don't think polling is accurately capturing the number of moderate Repugs (are there any?) voters who are voting Dem in some races.

by Anonymousreply 31010/28/2018

I agree, R310. I do feel like it's pretty massive out here, though. And one thing we do know. There a re way more of us than there are of them. Even if they turn out more than they usually do, we still have the numbers on our side. The hate crimes, bombs, shootings etc. don't help him at all especially the way he is reacting.

by Anonymousreply 31110/28/2018
by Anonymousreply 31210/28/2018

I just answered a phone survey about how I already voted in Nevada. I replied straight Democratic ticket.

by Anonymousreply 31310/28/2018

Please volunteer your time people! Next weekend will be a massive Last Weekend GOTV effort. Get involved please.

by Anonymousreply 31410/28/2018

The new and stepped up Republican strategy?

"Blackburn says 'angry mob' interrupted rally in Tennessee with Lindsey Graham"

And, guess who is going back to Tennessee? Trump.

by Anonymousreply 31510/29/2018

If you want to support the phone bankers and door knockers that are trying to get out the vote, but you can’t do it yourself, here’s a few things you can do:

Buy cases of water and bring them to your local Democratic political organizations. Buy food that is individually packaged but not sugar, like cheese, peanut butter crackers, protein or breakfast bars, microwave popcorn, individual packages of nuts or fruit that can be peeled, like bananas or oranges, or individually packaged sliced apples. Costco or Sams is great for individually packaged foods. Another great gift is packages of pens, phone chargers or highlighters.

Pizza or any kind of main dish is great too. Working indoors twelve to fifteen hour days, or walking miles door to door with nothing but sugary food when you can’t leave, is pretty impossible. I’m keeping a local Democratic campaign office fed and it’s costing a fortune.

by Anonymousreply 31610/29/2018

Another great loan or gift is a shredder, although I’d call about that first. Organizers have heard stories about republicans going through the trash trying to get info.

by Anonymousreply 31710/29/2018

Some of these so-called "protesters" who show up at Republican events are paid actors there to perpetuate fiction. The best way to deal with voter suppression is overwhelming turn out. Hopefully most state's voters will have the support of monitors and a legal team.

Local media ought to be on highest alert for any irregular nonsense, too. For instance, polls that are re located at the last minute with insufficient notice, polls that open later than scheduled, polls that "run out" of ballots or that face computer "glitches."

If people can avoid election day I hope they will. I hope people vote early. As for absentee ballots, even now they ought to be tracked by monitors. Where are they counted, how are they transported? Are COunty election commissioners "losing " absentee ballots from heavily Democratic districts?

Make sure people know what they need to have to vote on election day. If a picture ID is a requirement than bring one. There has been a hotline established for voters who run into problems. You can demand a provisional ballot, for example if you are denied the right to vote.

Find out what the various 800 numbers are and have them with you. My very Liberal pastor urged everyone on Sunday to "vote early and often!"

by Anonymousreply 31810/29/2018

R318

Does your apparently rather stupid pastor realize such statements have been used to strip churches of tax exempt status?

by Anonymousreply 31910/29/2018

Urging people to vote doesn't violate any laws or regulations, so long as it's couched in those innocuous terms.

by Anonymousreply 32010/29/2018

R320 is correct. My very Liberal pastor said "make sure you vote, early & often! " he was joking. The congregation knew he was joking and laughed heartily. But he made no endorsements unlike the fucking Evangelical pastors. He didn't direct us to any party or candidate.

by Anonymousreply 32110/29/2018

r316 - that is an excellent idea!

Someone at the local Ohio office sent out a link to meal train and it has filled up with volunteers donating meals.

by Anonymousreply 32210/29/2018

Wish they would do something like that here.

There are certain things people will eat and others they won’t. We had a volunteer bring handmade food, which was great, but it was unlabeled sandwiches which people didn’t want to open, because they didn’t know what they were, a super spicy dish no one could eat, and some other things a lot of people can’t eat. They went to a lot of work, but people just don’t want to eat something that’s going to upset their stomach if they’re locked in a room for hours.

What we really needed was a hot meal, ideally vegetarian so everybody could eat it. I have no idea what the religious and dietary restrictions of these people are. I know some belonged to religions that require restricted diets. It’s hard to eat pizza every day for weeks too.

by Anonymousreply 32310/29/2018

Morning music! But, stay focused!

"Rep. Martha McSally: 'I'm getting my ass kicked' on vote to repeal 'Obamacare'"

Tee-hee-hee!

by Anonymousreply 32410/30/2018

Sinema leads by 6 points in a new NBC Marist poll our today. NBC has repeatedly shown rosy results for Dems so I hope they’re right!

by Anonymousreply 32510/30/2018

OMG Please!!! Tell people if the vote for the Democrat, they will get rid of Mitch McConnell. He will no longer lead the Senate. The best way to get even for Kavanaugh is to flip the Senate!

by Anonymousreply 32610/30/2018

The Senate flip stops the Trump train.

by Anonymousreply 32710/30/2018

[quote]The Senate flip stops the Trump train.

Dead in its tracks!

by Anonymousreply 32810/30/2018

Turn off the TV sets. Don't listen to smears and fears. The Republicans have nothing to offer, but they love to attack the Dems. Just tell people to vote for the Democrats .

by Anonymousreply 32910/30/2018

Remind all the middle of the road Republican voters: they want to take your health care, and they want to take your paid benefits. They said so.

by Anonymousreply 33010/30/2018

High enough numbers of Dem voters will overcome any efforts to suppress and tamper with votes. That’s why it’s important to have more than we should really need.

by Anonymousreply 33110/30/2018

Just remember. No matter what happens on election day, win or lose we have to keep fighting, keep organizing and keep raising hell.

by Anonymousreply 33210/30/2018

r323, there is actually a place on the site where people can put in allergy info, dietary restrictions, etc, which is helpful.

I was in the office over the weekend after canvassing so I asked everyone about allergies and dietary restrictions and what I was thinking of cooking.

They were all glad and now I know what to cook. Hopefully I can leave a note in the site so others know.

by Anonymousreply 33310/30/2018

What is this shit about the progressive Gov from Oregon being in trouble? Her race is rated a toss-up now per Huffpo.

by Anonymousreply 33410/30/2018

[quote]Sinema leads by 6 points in a new NBC Marist poll our today. NBC has repeatedly shown rosy results for Dems so I hope they’re right!

Yes, NBC/Marist sometimes can have a Democratic lean, so one has to be cautious, but it looks like Sinema has recovered from her polling slump earlier this month.

538 rates the Arizona Senate race as "Leans Dem" so it's a good sign for Sinema so far.

by Anonymousreply 33510/30/2018

Chris Matthews is giving Beto O'Rourke a WHOLE hour town hall and so far Beto is rockin' the house!

by Anonymousreply 33610/30/2018

46 year old Beto has the energy of a man half his age.

by Anonymousreply 33710/30/2018

R334

She’s made serious missteps and alienated the majority of moderates of her own party.

An alternative newspaper in Oregon- yes, you read that right- actually endorsed Knute. Unless the Portland Police forces young people to vote for her at gunpoint then she might lose.

by Anonymousreply 33810/30/2018

New CNN Polls

ARIZONA

Kyrsten Sinema (D) 51%

Martha McSally (R) 47%

**

NEVADA

Jacky Rosen (D) 48%

Dean Heller (R) 45%

by Anonymousreply 33910/31/2018

Arizona's polls are all over the place. Some showing Sinema +5, some -5 and some in dead heat.

by Anonymousreply 34010/31/2018

[quote] 46 year old Beto has the energy of a man half his age.

Yeah his whole campaign has been him trying to emulate the Kennedy mystique..

by Anonymousreply 34110/31/2018

She causes me to tear...

[quote]Oprah Winfrey: "For anybody here who has an ancestor who didn't have the right to vote and you are choosing not to vote...you are dishonoring your family, you are disrespecting and disregarding their legacy, their suffering and their dreams. I'm here today because of the men and because of the women who were lynched, who were humiliated ... for the right, for the equality at the polls. And I want you to know that their blood has seeped into my DNA and I refuse to let their sacrifices be in vain."

by Anonymousreply 34211/01/2018

[quote]Arizona's polls are all over the place. Some showing Sinema +5, some -5 and some in dead heat.

Yes, there's been some fluctuation in the Arizona polls, but overall, the race tilts slightly towards Sinema.

But it's also basically a Toss Up.

by Anonymousreply 34311/01/2018

Well, this is good news for the Arizona Senate race. The Green Party candidate is dropping out and endorsing Sinema.

by Anonymousreply 34411/01/2018

WOW, R344. Huge news.

by Anonymousreply 34511/01/2018

Miss Lindzey has gone to a bunch of states trying to get Republicans elected. She talks Kavanaugh and caravan. Deplorables apparently adore sashaying and hissy-fits from the ole queen.

by Anonymousreply 34611/01/2018

Every little bit helps, r344. Unfortunately the majority of Arizona voters have already voted, so this isn't nearly as much of a game-changer as it could have been...

by Anonymousreply 34711/01/2018

Beto is done too. His campaign got caught on camera bragging about illegally using campaign money to help an underground migrant caravan.

by Anonymousreply 34811/01/2018

That's O'Keefe, R348. Nobody gives a shit about his "exposes."

by Anonymousreply 34911/02/2018

Wouldn't you flip if the Senate flipped?

by Anonymousreply 35011/02/2018

Trump is determined to focus on the Senate. The Republicans have a good shot at holding the Senate and even gain a seat or two. If he can be identified with the GOP holding the Senate he will point the finger at the newly retired Paul Ryan and others who fucked up and gave away the House. Trump likes winners. He will never accept Responsibility for losing so he is traveling around campaigning for senate seats and governors like Florida and Georgia. He'll be campaigning in Indiana tonight. I also believe that if the elections a re tampered with it has to be the ones that are statewide. IT is the statewide totals that get fucked with. So watch t hose Senate ad governor races closely. And we have to get out the vote. Big time. Obama is in Georgia and Florida today.

by Anonymousreply 35111/02/2018

I wouldn't be surprised if the Senate numbers are in flux for weeks.

by Anonymousreply 35211/02/2018

Something is wrong. What an odd headline to see 3-4 days before election day. This was running on CNN front page;

"Democrats' chances are fading to take the Senate"

by Anonymousreply 35311/02/2018

R353 the Dems were always going to have a difficult time with the Senate. I'm hoping that instead of feeling discouraged, which the GOP loves to do, mess with our heads, we ought to be more determined to GOTV. It's that simple. If we show up and vote, we win. There are way more of us than there are of them. And the Independents have to feel disgusted with his recent behavior.

by Anonymousreply 35411/03/2018

r353, I think CNN's Harry Enten is cute as fuck but I don't necessarily trust his projections. Give me MSNBC's Steve Kornacki any day when it comes to projections, especially on election night. Steve keeps it real and his energy is so hot.

So what's the story with Harry Enten. Is he one of us?

by Anonymousreply 35511/03/2018

MSNBC reported on a new poll that has Beto ahead by 2 points.

by Anonymousreply 35611/03/2018

[quote] Beto is done too. His campaign got caught on camera bragging about illegally using campaign money to help an underground migrant caravan.

Such utter nonsense. Let's look at what really happened. It was $300 in prepaid cards used to buy food and supplies for a shelter for women and children. The donation was suggested by his staff members and volunteers. The money will be reported appropriately to the FEC.

Good ole Lyin Ted.

by Anonymousreply 35711/03/2018

I wonder if Lyin' Ted can do this....

by Anonymousreply 35811/03/2018

Ole booger-eating Lyin' Ted. As John Boehner said, 'Lucifer in the Flesh'.

by Anonymousreply 35911/03/2018

And, wait a minute....

Where the HELL is Tom Cotton ????

by Anonymousreply 36011/03/2018

Huntys

Miss Nancy and Miss Joy are talking about the Democrat agenda on "AM JOY" once the Democrats are back in charge!

by Anonymousreply 36111/03/2018

I don't expect the Senate to flip blue, because the map this cycle is skewed against Dems. If two of the following things happen, I will be happy:

1. The great Claire McCaskill holds her seat

2. Bill Nelson holds FL Senate seat over outgoing governor dumbass freak Deliverance character Rick Scott in Florida

3. At least two current repub seats flip to blue, and I will dance in the streets if one of them is Beto over the truly vile Ted Cruz

by Anonymousreply 36211/03/2018

STAY FOCUSED AND WORK!!!!

This bitch MUST go down! And, not in the good way either...

[quote]Tennessee alarm bell rings for GOP: Marsha Blackburn's lead wiped ...

I BELIEVE IT'S ALL GOING TO BREAK HARD FOR BETO!!!!

I WANT THE SENATE TOO!!!

by Anonymousreply 36311/03/2018

I want the Senate to flip for no other reason than to depower Senator Mason Verger from Kentucky, ugly ass sum'bitch. I despise him more than 45. What a ugly nasty piece of crap. Him and Mrs. Dragon Lady need to kick rocks.

by Anonymousreply 36411/03/2018

I cannot stand Taylor Swift, but if she is what it takes to get Millenials to vote then she has my undying gratitude and respect. Deliver Tennessee to the Senate Democratic column and you are golden, Taylor!

by Anonymousreply 36511/03/2018

I want the senate but at this point Heidi Heitcamp looks like a certain loser and I hope I'm wrong. She has great support from Native Americans but they are being blocked from voting by all kinds of bullshit tactics. I'm very worried about McCaskill and Nelson, and Beto. I don't think the GOP will give them up without a huge fight. I'm talking about going into post election obstruction too. I'm watching Wisconsin because I hate Scott Walker SO MUCH. Lose, motherfucker!

by Anonymousreply 36611/03/2018

I want the Senate flipped because of the federal judiciary. McCaskill and Nelson are doing okay. Beto is doing better in the early voting than the polls suggested he would.

Personally, I doubt the Senate will flip, even though I'd rather have the Senate than the House. That said, I don't think it will swing more than one vote in either direction. Given that this was the most brutal Senate map in over 100 years, holding it to that much is actually a huge victory and it sets the Senate up for Democratic control in 2020. Keep in mind that it wasn't that long ago that Republicans were thinking they might have a filibuster-proof 60-vote lead in the Senate.

by Anonymousreply 36711/03/2018

Okay.... I don't like this....

MSNBC is already talking about what Democrat is going to lead what committee and what will be expected, etc.

DON'T STOP WORKING! STAY FOCUSED!!!!

by Anonymousreply 36811/03/2018

HARRY ENTEN! WHAT'S THE STORY? GAY/STRAIGHT? TOP/BOTTOM/VERSATILE?

by Anonymousreply 36911/03/2018

It's possible. Most people recognize that tRump is a childish, deranged lunatic who spews hate and division. The Rethuglicans have been nothing but enablers. Yes, it has been a rough map, but it would appear that the momentum is breaking -- even if ever so slightly -- in the Dems favor.

by Anonymousreply 37011/03/2018

The big news of the night will be Republicans who vote for Democrats.

Will it be enough to flip the Senate?

We will see.

by Anonymousreply 37111/03/2018

how many of these white women are lying and saying they are voting for Dems when they will vote for repugs anyway?

I don't trust polls. Let's work like we are 3 points behind.

by Anonymousreply 37211/03/2018

I agree r371. That's not being discussed enough. Also, a lot of young people are voting this midterm. Remember, Alabama prevented a republican pedophile from being elected a Senator. Miracles can happen.

I'll say this for Texas. If they elect Slimy Cruz over the fabulous Beto O'Rourke, then they will be considered the most pathetic state of all time. The late great Ann Richards won 2 terms as governor if I'm not mistaken. Beto can win this but on the other hand, Texas is sooo fucking red.

by Anonymousreply 37311/03/2018

R373, Texas is getting more purple by the week, but yes it is a hard slog for dems to win statewide. If Beto pulls it off (as a former Texan, I know my friends are working hard) he is the superhero of the party; if he doesn't, he is still a supernova of a rising star in the party.

Over at Trump TV they are predicting repubs may pick off Menendez's Senate seat. Please don't let that happen, NJ Dataloungers

by Anonymousreply 37411/03/2018

Not a chance in New Jersey. We're back to a double digit Menendez lead.

by Anonymousreply 37511/03/2018

The early vote in Nevada looks very good for Rosen. I think the Dems are going to flip that seat.

by Anonymousreply 37611/03/2018

[quote] I cannot stand Taylor Swift, but if she is what it takes to get Millenials to vote then she has my undying gratitude and respect. Deliver Tennessee to the Senate Democratic column and you are golden, Taylor!I cannot stand Taylor Swift, but if she is what it takes to get Millenials to vote then she has my undying gratitude and respect. Deliver Tennessee to the Senate Democratic column and you are golden, Taylor!

Hear! Hear!

by Anonymousreply 37711/03/2018

With AZ and NV likely going Dem, how in the world does anyone think the Repubs are going to pick up an extra seat or two? That means they'd have to flip three or four current Dem seats and I don't see that happening. I think the Senate is going to end up 50/50.

by Anonymousreply 37811/03/2018

The chances look good for Jacky Rosen to win, and if she does, then Nevada will have two Democratic women in the U.S. Senate.

The other is Catherine Cortez Mastro (on the right in the photo below), who visited the famously haunted Goldfield Hotel yesterday. She is the first Latina to be elected to the U.S. Senate.

by Anonymousreply 37911/03/2018

[quote]I think the Senate is going to end up 50/50.

A 50/50 senate is the GOP keeping control, because Pence is the tiebreaker.

For the Dems to take control they have to get to 51, and that looks tough. Heidi needs to keep her seat but polls don't look good for that.

by Anonymousreply 38011/03/2018

Yeah, I know, R380. I wish another seat would go blue but don't think ND is going to stick.

by Anonymousreply 38111/03/2018

R378, most of these races are still too close to call and we still don't know for sure what the "likely voter" model really is. So there are legitimately half a dozen seats that could go in either direction. North Dakota, I regret to say, seems to be lost, particularly with the obstacles to the Indian tribes voting. That leaves Indiana, Missouri, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Montana. The problem for the Democrats is that they basically have to "run the table."

Personally, now that we've seen some of these early voting numbers, I'm happier than I've been in a while, but I still see a real possibility of Republicans picking up a seat. In most of the close states, the early voting seems to be favoring Democrats, particularly in Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas. In Florida, though, some of the numbers I'm seeing there indicate a closer race than the polling would indicate, so even though Nelson is looking good in the polls, that may well be a tighter race than forecast.

That said, with polls showing some of these races tightening, like Texas and Tennessee, a true blue wave really could flip the Senate. While it's a low probability, it's not at all impossible.

by Anonymousreply 38211/03/2018

[quote]In Florida, though, some of the numbers I'm seeing there indicate a closer race than the polling would indicate, so even though Nelson is looking good in the polls, that may well be a tighter race than forecast.

Correct. The early vote numbers for Florida indicates a much closer race than polling has forecast unfortunately.

by Anonymousreply 38311/03/2018

Beto-Cruz is tied in latest poll. Likely an outlier, but those first-time voter stats have to be encouraging for Beto.

It would sure suck if Nelson lost at this point, after having a slight edge for most of the fall...

by Anonymousreply 38411/03/2018

If both the House and Senate become Democratic-controlled is there a chance of impeachment of Trump and Pence?

by Anonymousreply 38511/03/2018

[quote]If both the House and Senate become Democratic-controlled is there a chance of impeachment of Trump and Pence?

A chance?

by Anonymousreply 38611/03/2018

I must have typed this 100x on this board but I will do it again.

The House impeaches (brings charges), the Senate removes from office. It takes 2/3rds of the Senate to remove someone from office. Even if the Dems flip the senate they will not have 2/3rds of the chamber.

by Anonymousreply 38711/03/2018

Not much, R385. The House could impeach but the Senate would not vote to convict because Republicans would not support it. Basically, nothing is going to change there until there are signs that Trump is losing his base and I don't see that happening anytime soon.

by Anonymousreply 38811/03/2018

[quote] It takes 2/3rds of the Senate to remove someone from office. Even if the Dems flip the senate they will not have 2/3rds of the chamber.

It'll be enough to scare the SHIT out of Trump and the Republicans....

by Anonymousreply 38911/03/2018

Which is why the Mueller report and the indictments will have to be OVERWHELMING for the remaining Republican Senators that Trump RESIGNS.

Nixon resigned when he calculated he lost the Senate.

Nixon was never impeached.

Trump will get to this level.

We will see in middle 2020.

by Anonymousreply 39011/03/2018

I'm focused on winning at the ballot r390. First on Tuesday, then in 2020. Don't expect someone else to save us, we need to vote.

by Anonymousreply 39111/03/2018

If a Dem house votes articles of impeachment, there will be a Trial in the Senate presided over by Chief Justice Roberts (who, though a repub, is no fan of DJT, be assured).

While it would take a 2/3 vote in the Senate to convict and remove (never has, probably never will happen), all the evidence will come in and that could have a huge impact on 2020, legacy, credibility of specific senators and House members, etc.

by Anonymousreply 39211/03/2018

The impeachment of Clinton concluded with him getting more popular, the politics of this issue is tricky. I'm not sure an impeachment proceedings that will ultimately lead nowhere is the best use of the Dems time getting ready for 2020. Mueller releasing a damning report on Trump would change my mind there, and probably Pelosi's as well.

by Anonymousreply 39311/03/2018

[quote]I'm focused on winning at the ballot [R390]. First on Tuesday, then in 2020. Don't expect someone else to save us, we need to vote.

Right on! DON'T GET DISTRACTED!!! WORK!!! GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!

by Anonymousreply 39411/03/2018

Wow.... he's cut throat...

Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump

In all the time I’ve been President, almost two years, never once did Senator Bill Nelson call me to ask for help for the Great State of Florida. I never see him until election time....

....Lake Okeechobee and all of the hurricane money were a passion for Rick Scott, who called endlessly on behalf of the People of Florida. Vote @ScottforFlorida!

by Anonymousreply 39511/03/2018

. A Nancy Pelosi led House wouldn't even impeach Trump if the ENTIRE Congress and Senate were Democrat.

That's just how the Dems are. Spineless and cowardly. They had the chance to investigate Bush/Cheney for their illegal war and chickened out. You expect something different now with Trump/Pence?

by Anonymousreply 39611/03/2018

R396. We have health care because of pelosi. Btw, Bernie voted 2x for "regime change" in Iraq. So unless you have been canvassing, donating, texting voters, you're the problem, asshole.

Not having the trolling shit today

by Anonymousreply 39711/03/2018

LOL! This guy....

Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump

Landing in Montana now - at least everybody admits that my lines and crowds are far bigger than Barack Obama’s...

by Anonymousreply 39811/03/2018

R396, we have Republican health care because of Pelosi.

Ted Kennedy made Obama promise to pass universal health care. Obama vowed to the people that universal health care would be one of his goals once President. The DINOS in the party rolled over and took the public option off the table early in negotiations betraying the party in order to compromise and appease Republicans who excoriated Obamacare and called it socialism anyway. Ted would be rolling in his grave if he knew how the Democrat party betrayed the public.

by Anonymousreply 39911/03/2018

So, who is this R399 gurl who is trying to change and control this conversation?

Look honey, first we have to get back in and control it all. What was once off the table can be placed back on it. It's clear the country WANTS healthcare! If Democrats are successful, they should hit the ground fixing and making healthcare much better.

As far as impeachment, just give Miss Maxine 1-2 floors of some building and a staff. Then leave her alone! She'll come for us when she is ready and when we are needed.

by Anonymousreply 40011/03/2018

[quote] It's clear the country WANTS healthcare! If Democrats are successful, they should hit the ground fixing and making healthcare much better.

Yup, and a good part of that change in the conversation came about because of the ACA. For the first time, Congress officially said that Americans had a right to health care. And the majority of Americans agree.

by Anonymousreply 40111/03/2018

[quote]HARRY ENTEN! WHAT'S THE STORY? GAY/STRAIGHT? TOP/BOTTOM/VERSATILE?

Not sure if he's gay.

I chatted with Harry Enten briefly last year, but all I can tell you is he is a nice Jewish boy.

by Anonymousreply 40211/03/2018

Latest Tennessee Senate polls show a dead heat between Bredesen and Blackburn.

But caution has to be used since most polls have Blackburn ahead.

by Anonymousreply 40311/03/2018

Interesting how that TN race seems to be tightening after comfortable leads for Blackburn over the past month, Poll Troll/R403. It looks like there is a clear move back to Dems in the past week. Bredesen still has an uphill climb given TN's ruby red status but I'm glad he is closing the race on even footing.

by Anonymousreply 40411/03/2018

R400, I wouldn't hold my breath.

If the Democrats are successful at impeaching Trump, I will cut my tongue.

Unfortunately I think an insurrection would happen from his crazy base if Trump is kicked out of office. I think Americans are really in denial over just how many deplorables there really are in this country

by Anonymousreply 40511/03/2018

So we shouldn't even try because his "crazy base" may go ape shit if he's kicked out of office?

Fuck that.

If we can remove him, we need to do just that, and if his base even tries to start an insurrection they will be put down like the dogs that they are.

I've had enough.

by Anonymousreply 40611/03/2018

Don't assume that all the younger voters are anti Trump. I was surprised to discover that the Republicans have done a decent job of recruiting younger people on campuses, and the Alt Right has a surprising number of young people in their 20's on board. It makes me angry and I worry about the future of our country if these little fuckers are so stupid and easily led. They spew talking points right out of the GOP playbook.

by Anonymousreply 40711/03/2018

Nobody is assuming they all are, R407, but all of the available data suggest that Democrats are favored by that cohort and that an increase in their voting percentage benefits Democrats more than it does Republicans.

by Anonymousreply 40811/03/2018

If Republicans lost the Senate, Trump would be of no use to them. It would mean the base has eroded.

by Anonymousreply 40911/03/2018

Yes, TN is tightening.

Harry Enten is straight. But very hairy and Jewish and sexy.

by Anonymousreply 41011/03/2018

If Republicans lose the Senate, Republicans will be looking to replace Trump on the 2020 ballot.

He will have been proven to be weak.

A loser.

by Anonymousreply 41111/03/2018

“They spew talking points right out of the GOP playbook.“

You mean they don’t believe government propaganda?

by Anonymousreply 41211/03/2018

Exactly r408. No one assumes "all" young people vote blue, not even all black people vote blue and they are the most solid blue voting block. But more young people vote blue than vote red. Increased youth turn out benefits Democrats.

by Anonymousreply 41311/04/2018

Democrats will have 51

Reptilians will have 49 plus the gay Vice President so that means DEMOCRATS WIN!

by Anonymousreply 41411/04/2018

According to The Hill, early voting in Texas this year has exceeded the vote total for the 2014 mid-term election.

That's a hopeful sign.

by Anonymousreply 41511/04/2018

Texas, Missouri, North Dakota, Florida. Dangerous places for Dems. You just know those fuckers will crow about their "huge victory" if they get rid of McCaskill and Heitkamp. It pisses me off. And Nelson is another wild card. He looks OK right now but I don't trust Rick Scott. He's as dirty as they come. I hope Beto makes it, but I'm not counting on it.

by Anonymousreply 41611/04/2018

[quote]but I'm not counting on it.

No one should. Beto always was a long shot, I wish him the best but it is silly to pretend it isn't a long shot. This is Texas.

by Anonymousreply 41711/04/2018

OK. But maybe we will get Beto. A lot of Republicans hate Ted Cruz. I don't know how hard they're working. I'm not talking about voters but about the party people who run elections and raise money, both in Texas and nationally. So if we get Beto that's a gain off set by what is very likely the loss of Heitkamp, if the Native Americans don't turn out or denied the right to vote. Hopefully, McCaskill and Nelson will hang on, as will Manchin and Donnelly. Then we have to look to the West Arizona, and Nevada. I just don't want to see McConnell on TV Wednesday celebrating the fact that the GOP gained more Senate seats. I hate him SO MUCH. How does it look for Arizona and Nevada? What is the latest?

by Anonymousreply 41811/04/2018

If Beto is elected, he should take on Schumer.

by Anonymousreply 41911/04/2018

r418, it is shaping up to be a vast Blue High Tide that lifts all boats in Nevada. All Democrats winning (except for rat fuck Amodei in Red Hot Norther Nevada) by a few hundred/thousand votes.

Not a Blue Wave where everyone is in double digit wins but EVERYONE going over PLURALITY.

A Blue High Tide

This is because Nevada has the PISSY option of None of the Above.

by Anonymousreply 42011/04/2018

I think Dems get Nevada and Arizona. They lose Missouri and North Dakota. I really think they have a shot a Texas! Montana is worrisome. Trump wants it so bad cause he's pissed that his doctor who lied for him got canned by Tester. I wouldn't doubt there will be some kind of hacking or some kinds of shenanigans being involved in counting the Montana vote. It needs to be watched very carefully.

by Anonymousreply 42111/04/2018

Tester looks very strong in Montana r421, he has lead in every single poll coming out of that state.

by Anonymousreply 42211/04/2018

I think that Tester is safe. The only poll that his challenger has led in thus far was sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee -- hardly unbiased. Plus, there is a Democratic governor who can keep the shenanigans with voting to a minimum.

by Anonymousreply 42311/04/2018

STAY FOCUSED! KEEP WORKING!!!!

by Anonymousreply 42411/04/2018

Just made my last donation. $1,000 to the Dems. Let’s go blue!

by Anonymousreply 42511/04/2018

Unless there's an upset, Tester is heavily favored to win on Tuesday.

Same for Manchin.

Donnelly is also expected to win.

And even McCaskill is slightly favored.

Nelson is also favored, although it's not a guarantee.

And Arizona & Nevada are Toss Ups.

by Anonymousreply 42611/04/2018

Cantwell is facing a real challenge in trumper Hutchinson here in Washington. I'm sure Cantwell will win, but things don't always turn out like we want.

by Anonymousreply 42711/04/2018

Oh, please, R427. Hutchinson isn't even remotely a "real challenge." She has never stood a chance and has never been close in the polls.

by Anonymousreply 42811/04/2018

Yeah, not even Hutchinson honestly thinks can win, but apparently r427 does! I think you can relax on that one.

by Anonymousreply 42911/04/2018

James Carville : “If the Democrats lose the Florida Senate, that’s going to be bad, really bad. If Nelson loses Florida and you are a Democrat, throw up and go to bed because the night is over.”

by Anonymousreply 43011/04/2018

Carville normally has good political insights, R430.

But I'm not sure if he's correct about the Florida Senate race.

I don't think the Nelson-Scott race is predictive of what will happen in the country overall.

by Anonymousreply 43111/04/2018

That's the way I read it, as well. There are local dynamics that set that race apart from much of what's going on everywhere else.

by Anonymousreply 43211/04/2018

Nelson will win Florida. Unless there's a Florida glitch though. Who knows how their ballots are read?

by Anonymousreply 43311/04/2018

OH MY GOD!!!!

CHADS! CHADS CHADS!!!!!!

by Anonymousreply 43411/04/2018

r431, Carville's not predicting that the Dems will lose Florida. He's only stating how we should feel IF the Dems do lose Florida. Hell, if the Blue Wave doesn't happen for either House, we all need to say goodbye to the country as we know it.

by Anonymousreply 43511/04/2018

538 still gives Gillum a 75% chance of winning Florida.

Nelson is at a 66% chance. That means Scott has 1 in 3 odds of still winning, so it's still close for Nelson.

But a loss in one or both of these races in Florida wouldn't necessarily be predictive of the national races -- the Dems can still win the House even if they fall short in the Florida Senate & Governorship.

by Anonymousreply 43611/04/2018

I WANT THE SENATE TOO!!!

by Anonymousreply 43711/04/2018

I TOO WANT THE SENATE. THE WHOLE ENCHILADA!

by Anonymousreply 43811/04/2018

Who are all these fucks still supporting Cruz? That guy is the worst of the worst. Even my Republican extended family members hate him.

by Anonymousreply 43911/04/2018

It's not about liking Cruz, it is about voting for whoever has an R next to their name.

by Anonymousreply 44011/04/2018

Are we still keeping an eye on Mississippi? Could Espy pull off an upset?

by Anonymousreply 44111/04/2018

I don't want incumbent Dems to lose. I know Heitkamp is a real longshot at this point, but I hate McConnell. Hate him. I want the Senate, but most of all I don't want incumbent Dems to get beaten.

by Anonymousreply 44211/04/2018

What happens if the Senate ends at 50/50. Who gets to be the McConell then? I thought that the Vice President only gets the tie breaking vote on issues not on who leads the Senate.

by Anonymousreply 44311/04/2018

Having the VP still keeps the Repubs in the leadership/majority positions.

Also, there is no way that the Mississippi race will be solved on Tuesday night. Like Georgia governor, you have to win with 50%+ so there will almost certainly be run-offs later. (It's so stupid.)

by Anonymousreply 44411/04/2018

I got my Jill Stein voting friend to vote straight Dem. He voted early. My liberal Dump voting friend voted straight Dem as well. I convinced some people from work to go vote early with me. One of them brought her liberal daughter to vote with us. My parents voted my mail.

Come on Mueller!

by Anonymousreply 44511/04/2018

Poll Troll-

The next 48 hours will be interesting.

I’m guessing +4 in Senate and a 1 member House majority for Republicans, mostly due to early voting.

I’ll check Tuesday night. The Blue Wave might give way to a Red Tide.

by Anonymousreply 44611/04/2018

MMPH! They're bringing ELVIS out now!!!!

Priscilla Presley Verified account @Cilla_Presley

Attention Tennesseans: @MarshaBlackburn has perpetuated the cruelty of soring TN Walking Horses by doing the bidding of violators of the Horse Protection Act. Please vote for @PhilBredesen for Senate, to help save the breed Elvis so dearly loved from this abuse. @AWAction_News

by Anonymousreply 44711/04/2018

r446 why do the likes of you even bother posting? There will not be a + anything in the House this years. It's going blue, use your brain. The Senate is a toss up but won't be +4 Repub. This is NOT the year of a red wave ffs.

Shit they're bringing out the big guns in TN. Elvis's widow, invoking his name no less. That plus Taylor Swift coming out for Bredesen- yes this celeb shit matters to people in TN.

by Anonymousreply 44811/04/2018

R428 I live in the 46th. I spent last year canvassing for Manka in the 45th and have been canvassing for 5 months in the 8th to flip for schrier. I never worried about Cantwell, but Hutchison is an actual threat. But, thank you for your input. I hope you have also been spending your Saturdays and Sundays canvassing for Democrats in Washington state.

by Anonymousreply 44911/04/2018

R449 I don’t know much about this race but I do know Cantwell is disliked, much like Melendez of NJ. Democrats will hold their noses and vote for Cantwell.

by Anonymousreply 45011/04/2018

Why is Cantwell disliked?

by Anonymousreply 45111/04/2018

flippy floppy!

by Anonymousreply 45211/04/2018

R448

Such hostility.

The Senate has an infinitesimal chance of flipping, but the chances of Reps retaining control of the House are much higher than pollster predictions.

Wait until Tuesday night to accuse me of being a Russian troll.

by Anonymousreply 45311/04/2018

If red state Dems can/will win on rough terrain, Cantwell will win convincingly in one of the bluest states in the nation. I'm not sure why we're even having this ridiculous conversation. Your concern is noted.

[quote]What happens if the Senate ends at 50/50.

During the Bush years when there was a 50/50 split, both parties split chairmanships. But Republicans play dirtier now than almost 20 years ago.

by Anonymousreply 45411/04/2018

I'm feeling GREAT about Sinema and Rosen. If we flip those two and keep our red state loses to a minimum of one, two or even (none), we're looking at no net changes in the Senate, or +1/+2 gain.

A lot of people look at the horse race in the Senate (will Dems win it against all odds?!) but I'm more interested in their margin. They need to stay at 48 at minimum or gain one or two to have a chance of flipping in 2020. If Sinema, Rosen and a few red state Dems go down and we're left with 46/47, that isn't great for the next cycle even if the map looks MUCH more favorable for Dems than this horrendous map.

by Anonymousreply 45511/04/2018

OK, a bit of hope on the horizon.

Thing about this election like the fucking evil Republicans saw midterms in the 90s.

The field for the Senate is better for Democrats in 2020.

It is possible we could have a Democratic House, Senate and President in 2020.

Do not give up hope.

And if it had not happened by then, we get Trump's tax returns and subsequent investigations.

He will be going to jail.

by Anonymousreply 45611/04/2018

If you love Jesus you will vote GOP.

by Anonymousreply 45711/04/2018

R454 we are not having a conversation. I mentioned a concern. You said, bs Cantwells an easy in.

I said, yup. For 18 months I've been canvassing and so have had the conversations about Cantwell. Issaquah and Seattle will elect her. But, look, Washington wasn't a blue state until Manka in 2017.

King county is solid blue. Not the state.

So again, assume nothing.

by Anonymousreply 45811/04/2018

Vote Democratic Party down ballot, both for candidates and public policies!

Go to r/CaliforniaAction for voting resources and our endorsements. We have national resources and endorsements too, in addition to information for California State.

ALL AMERICAN HANDS ON DECK!

VOTE THIS TIME! IT IS THAT IMPORTANT! Your Fellow Americans need you to vote too.

by Anonymousreply 45911/04/2018

New FLORIDA poll this morning:

NBC/Marist

(Likely Voters)

Nelson (D) 50%

Scott (R) 46%

***

"Both Democratic candidates also enjoy net-positive favorability ratings, while both Republicans are more disliked than liked."

***

"Asked which party they want in control of Congress after November’s elections, 49 percent of likely voters choose Democrats, while 45 percent choose Republicans."

***

Nelson leads with Independents.

***

Trump approval in Florida: 44%

Trump disapproval in Florida: 51%

***

Poll conducted Oct 30-Nov 2

by Anonymousreply 46011/05/2018

MISSOURI

NBC/Marist

Claire McCaskill (D) 50

Josh Hawley (R) 47

***

"McCaskill holds a 20-point advantage among likely independent voters (56 percent to 36 percent), as well as leads among women (55 percent to 42 percent), non-white voters (78 percent to 20 percent) and those under 45 (58 percent to 39 percent)."

***

"In September’s NBC/Marist poll of the state, McCaskill and Hawley were tied at 47 percent each."

by Anonymousreply 46111/05/2018

Republicans just dump a ton more money to keep control of the senate. How many attack ads and mailers can you get?

by Anonymousreply 46211/05/2018

I know, everywhere I look

by Anonymousreply 46311/05/2018

538 has now increased Bill Nelson's chances of winning tomorrow from 66% to 70%.

by Anonymousreply 46411/05/2018

Dear Lord, please help Bill Nelson defeat the evil Rick Scott. And please help the valiant Claire McCaskill keep her seat in Missouri. And Lord, please SMITE OUR ENEMIES!!!! Smite 'em! Send Ted Cruz packing. Help us defeat the Evil Scott Walker in Wisconsin. And please Lord, give the victory to Andrew Gillum in Florida who is battling the Evil De Santis!!! Help Andrew smite him, Lord.

Amen!!!

by Anonymousreply 46511/05/2018

AMEN, R465!

by Anonymousreply 46611/05/2018

Nelson's odds of winning have definitely improved.

And Gillum is still favored.

Evers is favored to beat Walker in Wisconsin, although it's still a close race.

538 downgraded McCaskill's chances of winning today, although she still has a small edge.

by Anonymousreply 46711/05/2018

Trump is going to Missouri tonight.

by Anonymousreply 46811/05/2018

I still think Beto will win. And it will be college kids who put him over. I don't think anyone even bothers to poll them. But they are coming out for him. The lines for early voting in college towns are long. Keeping fingers crossed.

by Anonymousreply 46911/05/2018

[quote]I don’t know much about this race but I do know Cantwell is disliked, much like Melendez of NJ. Democrats will hold their noses and vote for Cantwell.

I live in Washington and I can tell you that you're full of shit. The one thing you got right is that Cantwell will coast to an easy win.

by Anonymousreply 47011/05/2018

[quote]Such hostility.

We tend to dislike stupidity here on DL.

[quote]The Senate has an infinitesimal chance of flipping, but the chances of Reps retaining control of the House are much higher than pollster predictions.

You have zero data to back up that claim.

[quote]Wait until Tuesday night to accuse me of being a Russian troll.

I'll settle for stupid troll right now. I don't need to wait for Tuesday night.

by Anonymousreply 47111/05/2018

[quote]I never worried about Cantwell, but Hutchison is an actual threat.

The data do not match that statement.

by Anonymousreply 47211/05/2018

[quote]I’m guessing +4 in Senate and a 1 member House majority for Republicans, mostly due to early voting.

Most of the early voting numbers favor Democrats, not Republicans. You have no data to back up your claims about the House.

[quote]I’ll check Tuesday night. The Blue Wave might give way to a Red Tide.

You really are a special kind of stupid, aren't you?

by Anonymousreply 47311/05/2018

I doubt there will be a blue wave, people are still too angry after the last election.

by Anonymousreply 47411/05/2018

R469 I just don't see how. I don't think Beto has won a single poll

by Anonymousreply 47511/05/2018

That is kind of a silly comment to make, R474. That anger is motivating Democrats to turn out in record numbers this year.

by Anonymousreply 47611/05/2018

He was ahead in one poll, R475, but that was an outlier that hasn't been repeated. The early voting numbers are suggesting that O'Rourke will do better than the polling suggests but it's still a long shot.

by Anonymousreply 47711/05/2018

R476 is right, it gets down to turnout.

by Anonymousreply 47811/05/2018

LOL! Pulling out everything from the hat

Texas contractor wins $145 million contract to build border wall in Rio Grande Valley

MCALLEN, Texas -- Federal authorities have awarded a $145 million contract to a Texas company to build 6 miles of wall along the U.S.-Mexico border in the Rio Grande Valley. U.S. Customs and Border Patrol said Friday that SLSCO will begin construction of an 18-foot reinforced concrete levee wall in February in the agency's McAllen Station region. The company will also increase the height of existing fences.

It will be the first section of President Donald Trump's border barriers in the Rio Grande Valley, the busiest corridor for illegal crossings.

The government recently completed construction of a 2-mile, 30-foot tall section of fencing along the border in California.

Mr. Trump has been ramping up anti-immigration rhetoric heading into Tuesday's midterm elections and has ordered troops to the border to meet a caravan of Central American migrants slowly traveling through Mexico.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo defended Mr. Trump's plan to send troops to the southern border, dismissing criticism that the move is motivated by politics ahead of the midterm elections.

"We've made clear to them they need to undertake every effort they can to stop this illegal migration from entering the United States, and the president's made very clear they will not be permitted to enter our country unlawfully," Pompeo said on "Face the Nation" Sunday.

He disputed that Mr. Trump's emphasis on hardening his immigration policies in recent weeks was aimed at rallying his base.

"I've been involved in scores of conversations about stopping illegal immigration from Mexico and never once has there been a discussion of the political impact in U.S. domestic politics," Pompeo said. "It has always been about securing the safety of the American people and securing our southern border."

by Anonymousreply 47911/05/2018

Those troops will spend a couple of months building up their location. Then a couple of months taking it all back down again. And they will have accomplished exactly nothing.

As for Pompeo, just one word: bullshit.

by Anonymousreply 48011/05/2018

[quote]The Senate has an infinitesimal chance of flipping, but the chances of Reps retaining control of the House are much higher than pollster predictions.

Good grief. No they are not higher than predicted. They may waver around the current numbers, but there is nearly zero chance of the Repubs retaining the House. Zero.

Unless massive electronic voter fraud on a widespread scale occurs. But we'll be having a different conversation re that, if it comes to pass.

by Anonymousreply 48111/05/2018

Garden-variety troll, and a rather stupid one at that.

by Anonymousreply 48211/05/2018

R481

Even Nate Silver says that there is a one and six chance that the Republicans will retain control of the House. That is not nonzero.

Far too many of the races are tossups for any meaningful overall prediction. Aggregating them and then not giving numbers for all 50+ competitive House seats is misleading.

There is little doubt that Democrats will cast nearly 10% more votes than Republicans. That does not mean that they will win simply because individual races are the only real factor. If 100 safe Dem HoRep candidates get 90% of the vote, but marginal candidates lose, it casts doubt on the accuracy of REPORTING on polling data.

by Anonymousreply 48311/05/2018

Oh, give it up, moron. You've been spewing that bullshit all thread and none of it is based on anything but wishful thinking on your part.

Tell us again how the "House is a toss up. The competitive races are now statistically tied."

Or how "every article is hammering [McCaskill's] response and evasive denials" for that "Project Veritas" silliness that immediately disappeared.

Or how "Beto is done too" because "His campaign got caught on camera bragging about illegally using campaign money to help an underground migrant caravan," another supposed "scandal" that disappeared immediately.

Or how you're guessing a "1 member House majority for Republicans, mostly due to early voting," even though most of the early voting has favored Democratic candidates.

Or how "the Blue Wave might give way to a Red Tide."

In short, you're an ignorant buffoon who knows absolutely nothing about politics, statistical analysis, polling, or economics. You have to be the Idiot Libertarian Troll, given that you you stated "the final collapse of Keynesian based policies destroys the credibility of the Infallible Experts."

by Anonymousreply 48411/05/2018

BRAVO!!!!!!!! r484

by Anonymousreply 48511/05/2018

Even worse for the moron:

[quote]FWIW, I don’t vote.

Then move the fuck along and let the grownups talk, moron.

by Anonymousreply 48611/05/2018

Nate Silver said that there was no pathway for Trump to win the Presidency. Fuck Nate Silver.

I am telling you the polling models are wrong. I think they are weighting the rejecters as non-voters and this is false. There are high numbers of people who are called by polls and just hang-up and reject.

Bottom Line: We do not know what is going to happen. Intention to vote surveys (the polls) are not reliable.

You have to VOTE.

Vote DEMOCRATIC party down ballot.

VOTE TOMORROW.!

*Wake up early and go to the polls.

*Take you voting research with you. Go here r/CaliforniaAction for voting resources and our endorsements. They have some national level voting resources for you too. Do this NOW. Start printing out their endorsements by state and by your address.

*Find your polling place too.

VOTE DEMOCRATIC Party down ballot, both candidates and public policy.!

by Anonymousreply 48711/05/2018

r/CaliforniaAction to be a highly informed voter!

VOTE!

by Anonymousreply 48811/05/2018

May I just remind everyone that a “10% chance of winning” does not mean it’s impossible. Would you take a ski lift that has a 10% chance of collapsing over a 1000 ft gorge? Drink spoiled milk with a 10% chance of giving you botulism? Of course not. It tells you something, but its not rulling anything out. And a long-shot winner does not invalidate the analysis.

by Anonymousreply 48911/05/2018

[quote]Nate Silver said that there was no pathway for Trump to win the Presidency. Fuck Nate Silver.

oh please, he said nothing of the kind. He was basically the only poll guru who was warning right up until the last minute that Trump could win.

by Anonymousreply 49011/05/2018

I’m excited, but then I remember that no matter what happen, we will still have that orange stain in the White House.

by Anonymousreply 49111/05/2018

amen to the Great Smiting!

Verily I say unto you, let no man partake of the bubbly libations until every last rethug has been smitten by the almighty hand of democracy tomorrow night.

If any man, woman or chile shall prematurely praise Cher before the majority of the votes are counted, let the previous poster's gypsy curses rain down upon them like the wrath of Joan Crawford.

by Anonymousreply 49211/05/2018

[quote]Nate Silver said that there was no pathway for Trump to win the Presidency. Fuck Nate Silver.

*sigh* No, he didn't.

[quote]I am telling you the polling models are wrong.

The polling models have been reasonably accurate in the off-cycle elections, aside from tending to underestimate Democratic turnout. The polling numbers are also mostly supported by the early voting numbers.

by Anonymousreply 49311/05/2018

BETO please win. Come on Texas, you can have the medicaid expansion (lower cost health insurance) and health care.

BETO is amazing and cruz is appalling. EASY!

by Anonymousreply 49411/05/2018

He’s a Canadian for Christ’s sake. How are people buying him as Mr. Texas.

by Anonymousreply 49511/05/2018

The AZ Dem party texting group I'm in to GOTV texted 300,000 people in Arizona today!!

by Anonymousreply 49611/05/2018

Amen, R465.

by Anonymousreply 49711/05/2018

I think democrats and younger voters are taking this election more seriously than the polling is picking up. Polling is normally accurate but we have been in the midst of an electoral shift over the past couple of years.

The only seats I see dems losing tomorrow (out of the ones they are contesting) are ND snd possibly TN. I know TX is deep red but I'd be shocked if Beto didn't pull off the upset at this point.

by Anonymousreply 49811/05/2018

Larry Sabato is out with his final Senate predictions and he thinks AZ + NV will flip blue and MO + ND + IN will flip red. That would be a net -1 loss.

by Anonymousreply 49911/05/2018

I don't think IN and MO both flip.

Claire may be doing better than we are seeing.

by Anonymousreply 50011/05/2018

Any particular reason this Red Tide Troll is still posting? If we all FF this troll's post at R446 "it" won't be able to post for 24 hrs.

[quote]Senate is impossible. House is a toss up. The competitive races are now statistically tied. A break one way is decisive.

[quote]Losing a (D) Senate seat is more probable at this juncture.

[quote]FWIW, I don’t vote. Neither party actually wants to fix the systemic problems.

[quote]Beto is done too. His campaign got caught on camera bragging about illegally using campaign money to help an underground migrant caravan.

[quote]I’m guessing +4 in Senate and a 1 member House majority for Republicans, mostly due to early voting. I’ll check Tuesday night. The Blue Wave might give way to a Red Tide.

[quote]The Senate has an infinitesimal chance of flipping, but the chances of Reps retaining control of the House are much higher than pollster predictions. Wait until Tuesday night to accuse me of being a Russian troll.

[quote]Far too many of the races are tossups for any meaningful overall prediction.

by Anonymousreply 50111/05/2018

[quote]I know TX is deep red but I'd be shocked if Beto didn't pull off the upset at this point.

Uh...

by Anonymousreply 50211/05/2018

R499 & R500, McCaskill is vulnerable, and the latest 538 forecast has downgraded her chances of winning slightly. She still is narrowly favored, but it's a Toss Up.

But I'm surprised that Sabato is predicting the Republicans will win Indiana because 538 gives Donnelly a 72% chance of winning, and he's ahead in the most recent polls.

by Anonymousreply 50311/05/2018

[quote] *sigh* No, he didn't.

Yes, he did. He even admitted it. Go shove a rusty broom handle up your ass.

by Anonymousreply 50411/05/2018

[quote] oh please, he said nothing of the kind. He was basically the only poll guru who was warning right up until the last minute that Trump could win.

OMFG, now you’re lying like Trump. Go blow your fucking brains out, you liar. Nate said trepeatedky Trump had no chance of winning, even writing a mea culpa essay on how wrong he was. He waited until two days before the election to give both candidates a 50/50 shot. Get fucked. He said this election that he had no idea how it would could per 2016 on Twitter joking about it. Fuck off!

by Anonymousreply 50511/05/2018

Other pollsters are saying the models are off. Two variables are: how they are weighting rejectors and predictive modelling on new registered voters.

by Anonymousreply 50611/05/2018

Sabato is a Republican.

by Anonymousreply 50711/05/2018

LOL, no he's not R507. If you watch his commentary on MSNBC as I do regularly, he's clearly a liberal or moderate at best.

by Anonymousreply 50811/05/2018

I think Sabato actually worked for Democrats as a younger man before becoming a Professor.

He's usually considered non-partisan in his analysis.

by Anonymousreply 50911/05/2018

I'm not saying Sabato is totally wrong in predicting Donnelly will lose in Indiana. He could be right.

Donnelly's lead does appear to have narrowed in some polls after he voted against Kavanaugh.

But the odds still appear to favor Donnelly by a narrow margin.

by Anonymousreply 51011/05/2018

I agree, R510. You don't have to look to far back in the past to look at how Senate races in Indiana have played out. Just look at two years ago. Evan Bayh. He led in all the early polls and all the SuperPacs came in to relentlessly attack him. I believe the RCP average was about even on election day but he lost by almost double digits.

Now Donnelly is certainly no carpetbagger or a bad candidate like Bayh was but it's certainly something to consider.

by Anonymousreply 51111/05/2018

Yes, the Evan Bayh campaign was hit by several problems.

Bayh started out with a lead early in 2016 because of his name recognition as a former Senator.

But:

1) He was hit for living outside of Indiana for several years after he left the Senate in 2010.

2) The effect of Trump performing well in Indiana and having an Indiana VP like Pence took him down even more by voting day.

by Anonymousreply 51211/05/2018

I would say that Phil Bredesen's situation in Tennessee this year reminds me of Evan Bayh in 2016.

Like Bayh, Bredesen started out ahead in the polls at the start of this year because of his big name recognition.

However, as the months have gone by, Bredesen has been slammed by huge amounts of attack ads.

Plus, Tennessee is redder than Indiana now, and redder than when Bredesen was Governor.

So although Bredesen has pulled even in a couple of recent TN polls, Blackburn is still heavily favored.

by Anonymousreply 51311/05/2018

Sorry for the FOX link, and we ALL know that he didn't write this, but can anyone else sense the guilty conscience of the piece, and the begging for another chance?

President Trump's closing argument: Vote Republican and continue the jobs boom

For many Americans, the Great Recession brought dark days we will never forget – and never want to repeat. It wasn’t long ago that economists told us sluggish growth and flat wages were here to stay.

Pundits talked about a “jobless recovery.” And politicians promised hope and change but never delivered.

But now, thanks to Republican leadership, the United States has the best economy in the history of our country – and hope has finally returned to cities and towns across America.

Since I was elected, we have created 4.5 million new jobs. In the last month alone, we added another 250,000 jobs, and nearly a half-million Americans returned to the workforce. We have added nearly 500,000 manufacturing jobs to our economy – jobs that many self-proclaimed experts said would never return.

The unemployment rate just fell to the lowest level in nearly 50 years. More Americans are working today than ever before. And wages are now rising at the fastest rate in a decade.

Today, if you want a job, you can get a job. If you want a better job, you can get a better job. African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and Asian-Americans have the best job prospects in history. The employment outlook for women is the best in more than 65 years.

Students graduating from high school and college are entering the workforce with an abundance of opportunities.

These things didn’t happen by accident. They happened because Republicans are putting American workers and families first.

by Anonymousreply 51411/06/2018

@R513; Poll Troll, have you gotten any sleep? You must rest! We will need your expertise and valuable opinions this evening. Don't worry about this idle chit-chat. GO REST!

by Anonymousreply 51511/06/2018

I'm prepared for the worst but I feel really good about;

Beto

Bredesen

Gullum

Abrams

Neilson

Basically, I do feel that there will be a sweep. I have nothing to base that upon except just my gut feelings.

by Anonymousreply 51611/06/2018

Donnelly has been running to the right in IN, which could backfire in blue areas like Indianapolis, NW corner of the state, and the college towns. I assume that could be playing into Sabato's comments.

by Anonymousreply 51711/06/2018

I'm not saying it WILL backfire, just thinking that could be a reason for Sabato's opinion. It will be close for Donnelly.

by Anonymousreply 51811/06/2018

I was polled by e-mail. I got a questionaire from the Republicans. It was from Michigan for their Senate race. Does that count? I mean we assume polls are conducted over the phone, and they often are, but I am seeing more and more polls coming in through e-mail.

by Anonymousreply 51911/06/2018

You don't seem to understand the difference between a primary and the general election r505. Yes, Silver dismissed Trump during the GOP primary, as everyone did assuming he was a flash in the pan. He was wrong, as he admitted, t wasn't even based on data it was just his assumption of how things would play out.

He never dismissed Trump chances of winning the general election, (the model also did not give it 50/50 as your posts, the post Comey-letter polls bumped Trump up to 30%). You seem a bit dim if I am being honest, should probably leave the election analysis to other posters.

by Anonymousreply 52011/06/2018

[quote]I think Sabato actually worked for Democrats as a younger man before becoming a Professor. He's usually considered non-partisan in his analysis.

He appears constantly on Fox.

by Anonymousreply 52111/06/2018

Silver got the 2016 General election right. We can't blame him for failing to factor in the Russians stealing the election.

by Anonymousreply 52211/06/2018

[quote] Donnelly has been running to the right in IN, which could backfire in blue areas like Indianapolis, NW corner of the state, and the college towns.

Let's just hope that at this point most Democratic and independent voters realize that the perfect is the enemy of the good. Everyone should get the message: VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO.

by Anonymousreply 52311/06/2018

Exactly!

by Anonymousreply 52411/06/2018

[quote]OMFG, now you’re lying like Trump. Go blow your fucking brains out, you liar. Nate said trepeatedky Trump had no chance of winning, even writing a mea culpa essay on how wrong he was. He waited until two days before the election to give both candidates a 50/50 shot. Get fucked. He said this election that he had no idea how it would could per 2016 on Twitter joking about it. Fuck off!

Just stop. You're embarrassing yourself with this bullshit. No, he did not say that "Trump had no chance of winning." And no, he never gave the candidates a 50/50 shot. And no, he didn't say what you claim he said about this election. You're simply making shit up and it's stupid.

by Anonymousreply 52511/06/2018
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