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Will the Senate Flip - Part Deux

Continue your arguing.

Link to previous thread.

by Anonymousreply 216a day ago

Taking the House is essential. Taking the Senate would be fabulous. So much can still happen between now and the election.

by Anonymousreply 110/11/2018

You know the old adage, 24 hours is a lifetime in American politics.

by Anonymousreply 210/11/2018

I think the Rethuglicans are pretty freaked out. They are so desperate to claim that any idea of losing the Senate is just impossible! Can't happen! Won't happen! Ever!

Methinks they dost protest too much. They can still lose it all.

by Anonymousreply 310/11/2018

Senate is impossible.

House is a toss up. The competitive races are now statistically tied.

A break one way is decisive.

by Anonymousreply 410/11/2018

How, R3

Three miracles?

Losing a (D) Senate seat is more probable at this juncture.

by Anonymousreply 510/11/2018

Do not give up working. A lot can happen.

by Anonymousreply 610/11/2018

If Dems can’t take the House, we’re lost for 2 more years. Trump and the Rethugs will be emboldened and even more aggressive.

by Anonymousreply 710/11/2018

Meanwhile several states are manipulating their voter rolls and rules to cut into the Dem vote.

by Anonymousreply 810/11/2018

[quote]House is a toss up. The competitive races are now statistically tied.

Link, please.

by Anonymousreply 910/11/2018

That's what has me terrified about the Senate. Virtually everyone assumes Heitkamp is a goner at this point, meaning that even if Dems pick up NV and AZ we're still only at 50 (Although even fifty ain't so bad, we may be able to sway a GOP senator here or there). But if there is even a relatively small GOP wave in red states, we could lose Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester, Donnelly and Manchin even while winning the House by romping in Clinton states and districts. Hell, in Florida the hurricane may just give Scott that tiny little push he needs to take out Nelson.

I know that's a worst case scenario (well a worst case would be failing to pick up the House, which would be a blow-your-brains-out scenario). But still, I guess I'd like to prepare for the worst even while hoping for the best.

by Anonymousreply 1010/11/2018

People like Kemp went to Russia and studied voter manipulation. Remember the shit he pulled with Jones? If you can, volunteer to drive ppl to the polls, deliver water, pay someone's voter ID.

by Anonymousreply 1110/11/2018

Trump raised taxes on businesses and increased spending. Two things the American people don’t like. This should be a central theme of the Democrats. The angry Carrier employees who voted Trump and lost their jobs should be played on a loop in every state. Add the 24,000 Ford layoffs, etc.

by Anonymousreply 1210/12/2018

Are you guys fucking crazy? Why would you listen to right wing assholes tell you that the Senate is gone? The Senate is nowhere near gone. Heitkamp is not gone. Beto is probably going to beat Cruz. Manchin and McCaskill will probably win. All this gloom and doom is just RAPEpublican bullshit, trying to keep the drunken rapist judge bounce going for a few weeks.

We took ALABAMA for fuck's sake. Call Roy Moore whatever you want, he had Trump and he had the backing of the Republican Party and it was in ALABAMA.

by Anonymousreply 1310/12/2018

The angry Kavanaugh bumps are already Deplorable. The polls say it’s the Democrats that are energized.

by Anonymousreply 1410/12/2018

[quote]Beto is probably going to beat Cruz

God love you for your enthusiasm, r13. If you turn out to be right considering that Beto hasn't led in a single poll, then you should post your lottery picks immediately. You're probably right about Manchin, and ironically enough it was likely his Kavanaugh vote that ended up saving him.

Actually several important Republicans refused to endorse Roy Moore. Even fellow scumbag Trump only gave him a very grudging endorsement (and heavily endorsed his primary rival).

by Anonymousreply 1510/12/2018

Sheldon Adelson giving an additional $25 million -- and possibly more -- to shore up Republican efforts to hold the House and Senate. This is on top of the $55 million he gave earlier this year.

The news comes one day after it was revealed that Trump had personally pressured the Japanese prime minister to approve Adelson’s proposed casino project in Tokyo, a startling breach of diplomatic norms.

by Anonymousreply 1610/12/2018

Although this thread is about the Senate, has anybody else wasted time playing with the House election simulator? It's fun to run simulations and fantasize about Election Night really being like that, although it's still based on ratings from various pollsters and so could be completely wrong.

by Anonymousreply 1710/12/2018


How is shit like this not illegal?

by Anonymousreply 1810/12/2018

[quote]How is shit like this not illegal?

Because we have a mob boss instead of a president

by Anonymousreply 1910/12/2018

Two young Arizona Republicans tried to make a donation to a Democratic congressman as members of the Communist party in an apparent attempt to tie him to the far left.

Two men who called themselves Jose Rosales and Ahmahd Sadia walked into the campaign office of first-term Democrat Tom O’Halleran with $39.68 and an urgent desire for the Northern Arizona University Communist party to be given a receipt for the donation.

It turns out that both men work for the Arizona Republican party and were following the lead of famed dirty trickster Roger Stone, who pulled a similar stunt on behalf of Richard Nixon in 1972,

by Anonymousreply 2010/12/2018


by Anonymousreply 2110/12/2018

Republicans Are Disenfranchising Thousands of Minority Voters Ahead of Next Month's Midterm Elections

Indiana: Has canceled the registrations of 469,000 voters, equivalent to a little over 10% of the registered voters in Indiana’s 2014 midterms.

Georgia: Republican Brian Kemp, ,the current Georgia Secretary of State who is now running for Governor, has put 53,000 registrations "on hold." Georgia’s population is 32% black, but the list of voter registrations on hold is nearly 70% black. No doubt it is merely a coincidence that Kemp's Democratic opponent for the governorship is a black woman.

Florida: Of the 30,196 applications for voting rights restoration [Florida governor Rick Scott has] received since taking office in January 2011, he's approved only 3,005, or just under 10 percent.

North Dakota: Republicans are stripping thousands of Native Americans of the right to vote, all because of a loophole made through America’s historical abuse of these American citizens.

by Anonymousreply 2210/12/2018

Well we don’t have the Courts to stop it. We were warned in 2016

by Anonymousreply 2310/12/2018

The hope is that the polls exclude the part of the electorate that is most energized by anti-Trump/Republican sentiment -- younger voters, people of color, etc. The science of polling favors older, Republican leaning voters. It is hard to capture infrequent or first-time voters in polling -- or to conduct a poll with cell phone users, who rarely consent to polling.

by Anonymousreply 2410/12/2018

At least we will have the House.

by Anonymousreply 2510/12/2018

R25, dont presume anything. That’s partly why we lost in 2016

by Anonymousreply 2610/12/2018

Democrats could take the Senate if they ran and hard and aggressive national campaign outlining the Republican plans to trash Social Security, Medicare and ballooning deficits.

by Anonymousreply 2710/12/2018

I agree 100%, R26! We must continue to work hard, as if our lives depended upon the outcome, to the very last second!

[quote]Democrats could take the Senate if they ran and hard and aggressive national campaign outlining the Republican plans to trash Social Security, Medicare and ballooning deficits.

BINGO! Where are the ads? Where is Tom Perez and others? Nancy Pelosi is doing the right thing by laying low.

by Anonymousreply 2810/12/2018

Dems have great candidates for the Senate, but they are running in states like Texas and Tennnesse r27

This map is horrible for the Dems, there is no way around it.

by Anonymousreply 2910/12/2018

[quote]This map is horrible for the Dems, there is no way around it.

(sing with me)

"We shall overcome. We shall overcome..."

by Anonymousreply 3010/12/2018

Beto O'Rourke smashes record, raises $38.1 million in three months. It's the most ever raised in a quarter by a US Senate campaign.

The O'Rourke campaign, which has rejected PAC money, announced that the $38.1 million haul was "powered by 802,836 individual contributions," and said that the "majority of the fundraising c[ame] from Texas."

by Anonymousreply 3110/12/2018

If we manage to flip the House that itself a a huge win that will completely change the dynamic in Washington. That possible achievement shouldn't be shrugged off.

by Anonymousreply 3210/12/2018


by Anonymousreply 3310/12/2018

Yes, we heard you the first time dear r33. Do you have anything constructive to add to the discussion...?

by Anonymousreply 3410/12/2018

Taking the Senate has to be viewed like the Republican takeover of the Senate, the House and State Legislatures; as long as we make progress, it will have to be a multi election process.

We need to get rid of the Electoral College.

by Anonymousreply 3510/12/2018

That ain’t happening

by Anonymousreply 3610/12/2018

Yes R35. How do we get rid of the EC?

by Anonymousreply 3710/12/2018

1. He's behind in the polls. By like 7-10 points. 2. Big fundraising for Democratic candidates in Texas does not = wins (see Wendy Davis) 3. The fundamentals in the state still favor Republicans

by Anonymousreply 3810/12/2018

A Constitutional Amendment could very well happen.

by Anonymousreply 3910/12/2018

[quote]Yes, we heard you the first time dear [R33]. Do you have anything constructive to add to the discussion...?



Stay focused. Work harder. Believe and know that it can be done.

by Anonymousreply 4010/12/2018

How? Small states would never vote to decrease their power. Think

by Anonymousreply 4110/12/2018

Really, we should change the numbers of Senators per state too. It is ridiculous for WY and CA to have 2 Senators each.

by Anonymousreply 4210/12/2018

Elect the best gentleman callers!

by Anonymousreply 4310/12/2018

We need UN observers for the election.

by Anonymousreply 4410/12/2018

r41, if the only way to change is through Constitutional Amendment, then that is the process. 2/3 of the states needed. I think that the smaller states will fall in line if they have Democratic legislatures. Like the future DC and PR. They know getting rid of the EC will AMPLIFY their vote.

by Anonymousreply 4510/12/2018

[quote]We need UN observers for the election.


And, that's an angle to attack Republicans!. THEY CHEAT! Lots of evidence to support that too. They want to go with this "mob" nonsense then everyone should start calling them out for exactly what they are!


by Anonymousreply 4610/12/2018

I have one Democratic Senator and he is getting old, he should have stepped aside but he didn't...I think his longtime service might hinder his re election.

by Anonymousreply 4710/12/2018

R20 writes,

[Quote]Two young Arizona Republicans tried to make a donation to a Democratic congressman as members of the Communist party in an apparent attempt to tie him to the far left.

What do you mean with the words [Italic]far left[/Italic]?

by Anonymousreply 4810/12/2018

Beto pulls ahead.

by Anonymousreply 4910/12/2018

In Arizona, the Far Left is the Richard Nixon Wing of the Arizona Democratic Party.

by Anonymousreply 5010/12/2018

Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana should be one state. There are more bison than people in Wyoming.

by Anonymousreply 5110/12/2018

[quote]Beto pulls ahead.

You see? It's going to go back and forth like this all the way up until election day. BUT, Craig Melman (MSNBC) just reported that the right is working feverishly to stop the Democrat momentum. This isn't the Russians. These people are the REPUBLICANS! They're all over the internet disseminating rumors and false stories.

Stay strong! Remain focused! We can do this! YES WE CAN!!!

by Anonymousreply 5210/12/2018

R40 I agree. Canvass tomorrow if you can. Ignore the polls, do the work.

Btw, I checked probably a year ago about un observers for polling, at that time, Russians headed to committee (or whatever it's called, I forget). No one will magically save us. Do the work and vote.

by Anonymousreply 5310/12/2018

^polling= voting. UN voting observers

by Anonymousreply 5410/12/2018

The NATIONAL media spotlight has to be focused , floodlights in fact on the voter suppression and corruption happening in Georgia, Florida, Indiana and North Dakota. They have to be embarrassed and pressured into doing the right thing, or at least backing away from this crap. We can make it happen, but not without national media attention. There has to be injunctive relief or lawsuits or public outrage clearly expressed all with the eyes of the nation. And you know what else? ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. Yes. The same way we impose sanctions on Russia or China or turkey or WTF ever, we need to pressure corporate investors, the business community, into stepping up. For example, there were rumors of Amazon looking at Georgia. So maybe some of this people can step forward and nisist Kemp do right. Georgia prides itself on it's economic development. But if some of the business investors started telling them to stop being so damned backward they'd listen. It's not only the masses we need to focus on, but the $$$ people.

by Anonymousreply 5510/12/2018

Everyone should get out to vote and I hope they do HOWEVER it will not matter one bit.

Our country is lost. The Supreme Court and Trump will finish the destruction.

by Anonymousreply 5610/12/2018

[quote]God love you for your enthusiasm, [R13]. If you turn out to be right considering that Beto hasn't led in a single poll

Actually, he's led in three, including a new one today. He's still long odds, of course.

by Anonymousreply 5710/12/2018

[quote]House is a toss up. The competitive races are now statistically tied.

Out of curiosity, why do you think lying so blatantly is a good tactic?

by Anonymousreply 5810/12/2018

These people are nuts...

Now the right is claiming Hurricane Michael was created by Democrats to revenge Kavanaugh

Mark Taylor @patton6966 @patton6966

I warned weeks ago that there would all kinds of attacks to disrupt the elections. No coincidence this monster storm is hitting the most conservative area of Florida. Never in history has been a Cat 4 in the month of Oct. 100 year storm. All the southeast affected. Pray! ...- 5:44 AM - 10 Oct 2018

by Anonymousreply 5910/12/2018

So Democrats can create Hurricanes?

by Anonymousreply 6010/12/2018

There were some responses to that tweet or a prior one that claimed that there was some sort of top secret military project that could create such weather. I guess they're thinking this supposed Deep State is using this technology.

What I don't get is why they think this supposed Deep State is Democratic? The FBI, military organizations, and security organizations, tend to be Republican.

by Anonymousreply 6110/12/2018

Here in Arizona my ballot arrived today. In Maricopa County the election seems to mostly take place with early voting.

by Anonymousreply 6210/12/2018

In case your friends or family have questions about voting

by Anonymousreply 6310/12/2018

Marsha Blackburn, the Republican candidate, leads NYT poll by 14 %

by Anonymousreply 6410/12/2018

MMPH... I just refuse to believe that, R64. She might be leading but not by 14. I see that the only one reporting that number is FOX

by Anonymousreply 6510/12/2018

The NYTimes/Siena poll surveys Tennessee and finds Republican Marsha Blackburn ahead of Democrat Phil Bredesen, 54 percent to 40 percent. You know what’s going to be epic? When Taylor Swift debuts her song about breaking up with Bredesen.

by Anonymousreply 6610/12/2018

R65. that poll is from NYT, not from FOX.

by Anonymousreply 6710/12/2018

FOX is the only one reporting the poll, R67. I couldn't care less if the poll was from St Peter. I'm not buying it.

by Anonymousreply 6810/12/2018

Breedsen is Kavanaugh casualty

by Anonymousreply 6910/12/2018

Add to the list of issues the Democrats can campaign on... the Republicans are trying to do away with the ban on insurance companies to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions.

by Anonymousreply 7010/12/2018

Hate to be a downer, r49, but did you or anyone else actually READ that link? That poll showing Beto ahead by two is from SEPTEMBER 19TH. I don't know why that GOP woman retweeted it. Virtually every poll since Kavanaugh has shown Beto behind and losing ground. He could still win - maybe the youth will actually turn out, and maybe the polls showing Hispanic voters evenly split are wrong. I just wouldn't put any money on it.

I'm the only person in my circle who hasn't gotten my ballot yet, r62. Fuckers better not have lost it in the mail.

by Anonymousreply 7110/12/2018

[quote]MMPH... I just refuse to believe that, [R64]. She might be leading but not by 14. I see that the only one reporting that number is FOX.

You're right to be skeptical but not because the only reporting it is Fox. They had nothing to do with the poll. The NYT's polling this year, particularly in a few key Senate contests is way outside the norm. Now maybe they're right and everyone else is wrong but, right now, anyway, absent some additional confirmation from another pollster, I don't think much of their polling.

by Anonymousreply 7210/12/2018

Thanks, R71. I'm ashamed to say that I looked at the date on the tweet and not at the date on the link, so I got burned by this.

Yes, that was one of two polls in early to mid September that showed Beto ahead. All of the rest of them are showing Cruz leading, although the NYT is still something of an outlier here on the margin of victory.

by Anonymousreply 7310/12/2018

30 seats are really competitive. The Dems need to get at least 11 of them.

by Anonymousreply 7410/12/2018

The Democrats need 23 seats to take back the House. Three seats to take the Senate. That assumes they hold what they have in both houses and add to it.

by Anonymousreply 7510/12/2018

Something is wrong;

"Ted Cruz challenges Beto O’Rourke to CNN debate, bristles at media ‘puff pieces’" (just dropped an hour ago)

"Beto O'Rourke raised $38.1 million in last three months, smashing all records in bid to oust Ted Cruz"

"Beto O'Rourke's War Chest Bothers Some Democrats as He Struggles ..." (I SWEAR democrats can't get out of their own way! Instead of asking if they can help they're worried about the money)

by Anonymousreply 7610/12/2018

RE; Marsha Blackburn

It looks as if only the conservative entertainment media is reporting the 14 point lead. I say that someone at the NYT was bought off.

by Anonymousreply 7710/12/2018

[quote]But if there is even a relatively small GOP wave in red states, we could lose Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester, Donnelly and Manchin even while winning the House by romping in Clinton states and districts. Hell, in Florida the hurricane may just give Scott that tiny little push he needs to take out Nelson.

Heitkamp is certainly in danger of losing, but most of the other Democratic Senators you mention are either in solid shape or still have an even shot.

Manchin has led in every poll I've seen this year -- he's never been in real danger, and forecasters give him very good odds.

After Manchin, the red state Senator with the next best chance is Tester. He has led the polls all year and hasn't been seriously threatened yet.

Donnelly's lead has possibly narrowed a bit this month, but he still is narrowly favored over his Republican challenger.

McCaskill is in a Toss Up with Hawley, but she appears to still have a shot.

As for Nelson, it's hard to say what effect the hurricane in Florida will have on the polls -- we'll have to take a look over the next week.

by Anonymousreply 7810/12/2018

Harry Enten's new analysis.

Looking bad for the Democrats in the Senate, but some positive signs for the Dems in the Midwest pointing towards 2020:

by Anonymousreply 7910/13/2018

Lord only knows why you carry water for those right-wing cunts, R15, but never mind. Here, although they've tried to hide it for ages, is a partial list of the endorsements for Roy Moore. Not too many Rethuglicans are missing.

by Anonymousreply 8010/13/2018

Beto's fine, R76, the nattering bullshit is coming from OUTSIDE of the Democratic Party. It's coming from talking heads on cable news.

The Party let Beto do Beto and have not funded him much, no need. Other candidates would love to get their hands on some of Beto's money but he didn't raise it for them. It's illegal to spend your campaign donations on some other candidate.

by Anonymousreply 8110/13/2018

I have to agree with you R81. The headlines dropping about Ted Cruz makes him sound very scared. Very scared;

"Ted Cruz warns that behind Beto O’Rourke and his cash is rash of ‘radical’ stands

MONTGOMERY -- Sen. Ted Cruz is making a virtue of necessity.Confronted with unwelcome news -- his Democratic opponent is outraising him by more..."

by Anonymousreply 8210/13/2018

It would be nice but i think the dems will have to be happy with just the congress

by Anonymousreply 8310/13/2018

I'm not going to argue with you, r80. I hope all you Beto fans are right and every single poll is wrong (hey, many of the state-level polls were wrong in 2016, so it could happen). I just don't want to see Beto lose and then all the screams of "Russia !" and "Vote Fraud !" start when many of use thought he would lose from the very beginning.

I have also said this many times before, and I'll say it again - is all that money being raised in Texas being put to its best use? We won't find out until election night, and then if I was right and you were wrong it will be too late.

by Anonymousreply 8410/13/2018

If people wanted to donate to someone else, they would, R84. What the fuck are you whining about and what is your proposed remedy?

There is nothing Beto can do about it. Literally, nothing. He can't force people to donate to a different candidate. You're bitching about nothing and you have no fucking point so just go die in a greasefire, ya cunt.

by Anonymousreply 8510/13/2018

Beto needs more Latno votes than he currently has, but obviously, the guy is a gifted campaigner and will keep adjusting.

Jesus FC! Listen, I’m a mess over this as much as one can be. It’s all I think about (in my free time), and I’m doing all kinds of things to help us win. What’s frustrating on this thread is that some of you sound like scared little bitches — you just don’t hear or see like that from their side, they don’t go into fetal position when they’re down in the polls. It’s like you’re creating a self-fulfilling prophesy with the negative energy. Keep your eyes on the mother fucking prize bitches!!!

This doesn’t mean I’m not having all the exact same thoughts and fears. But I truly believe that “you are what you think” and so I choose to not utter these fears aloud because I don’t want to give them more power than they already have. Right actions lead to right thoughts. Put your god damned energy into ACTION. What can YOU do to help in those shakey races? Have you given them money? Are you posting on social media? Are you talking to family/friends? Have you written postcards to voters in those districts? Phone banks? Canvassing? There is a TON you can do!

My biggest goal between now and the election is to connect with one WORKER per day: gas station cashier, grocery cashier, retail workers, restaurant workers, and make small talk and ask if they’re voting. Something like, “hey, I hope you’re registered to vote! Hope you know the only party who gives a damn about your life is the Dems.” If you get a positive response, “That’s great, anything I can do to help you make it to the polls?” If it’s negative, no big deal, just wish them a good day. But TELL them in a single sentence that Dems are fighting for their healthcare and wages and education — the other party is not.

Focus your energy on how you can make a difference. A LOT can happen, keep working.

by Anonymousreply 8610/13/2018

Beto already has the Latino vote down. He now needs the white frauge.

A sexy photo op will do the trick.

by Anonymousreply 8710/13/2018

Cite your source r87, that’s not what I read. I’ve supported him monetarily for a year, I REALLY want him to win. He gives the same energy Obama did when he was an IL Senator (I’m in Chicago), I can just feel it, Beto could be a true star IF he can win this. So I’m rooting hard for him.

by Anonymousreply 8810/13/2018

Also, I get texts from his team to phone bank, but I don’t do it because I’m convinced they won’t like a Yankee on the phone. Call me crazy, but I lived in GA for five years, they don’t like Yankees telling them what to do, so I’m supporting “from afar.”

by Anonymousreply 8910/13/2018

I got another donation solicitation from Republican Senator Dean Heller, Nevada. I wrote access the top: I’m voting straight Democratic ticket. Trump’s a crook! And mailed it back. This is the second solicitation in two weeks.

by Anonymousreply 9010/14/2018

Please consider canvassing if you can. it's does a couple of things: 1. Connects to voters, 2. Tells the campaign who is a yes, a no, an undecided. The campaign can cull the yes and noes, and reach out to the undecided.

If canvassing not for you, you want to help someone in another state, consider phone banking for a campaign.

You can go to postcards for voters. org and get set up to write reminders to voters to vote.

Go to and volunteer to text voters.

Volunteer to drive ppl to the polling booths, bring water if they are in line, donate money so ppl can get IDs to vote.

We can win not only congress, but state houses and governorships.

I believe we can hold the senate and pick up a seat.

Thank you for reading my long post.

by Anonymousreply 9110/14/2018

I forgot to add, if you want to donate to a candidate, you can donate directly to their campaign. You don't have to go through a middle man.

by Anonymousreply 9210/14/2018

I don't know anyone who doesn't vote and I don't associate with anyone who supports Trump. I'm peaceful. I'm working to help Mc Caskill and Heidi Heitkamp. Phone calls & money.

by Anonymousreply 9310/14/2018

Look. It's simple. Right now we have to identify our voters. Then we have to get them to the polls. And if you don't have a seriously aggressive absentee voter outreach going on you are fucked. Absentee ballots do not sit. They are usually returned within ten days or less of receiving them. So do not fuck with the AVs. This is the time of harvesting. The GOTV operation depends on the groundwork laid in the next two weeks.

by Anonymousreply 9410/14/2018

Why the Democrats have to beg their base to vote is unconscionable. Trump’s the worst most vile turd imaginable, but still the Democrats have to beg.

by Anonymousreply 9510/14/2018

I don't know what a gotv is. I do know if we are identifying voters in 2 weeks, that's too late. I've been canvassing for 9 weeks, I did 112 houses today. i will canvass until elections. The race is very close.

by Anonymousreply 9610/14/2018

Get Out The Vote, r96

by Anonymousreply 9710/14/2018

I wish Avenatti would shut up on Twitter. He’s unhinged.

by Anonymousreply 9810/14/2018

Well, the Sunday morning talk shows weren't encouraging at all. But, let's not lose focus!

by Anonymousreply 9910/14/2018

Chuck Todd is a conservative asshole, when he wishes a Republican to stay safe on the campaign trail and he dismisses the Black candidate for Georgia Governor who is fighting institutional white racism and an opponent who controls the vote in Georgia.

Todd is a silly fucker who does not think people pay attention.

by Anonymousreply 10010/14/2018

I love you, Pole Troll.

Polling has had a rough go the last 2 years, but the rolling poll method seems to be winning. If you follow a specific group of people who vote in most elections over a lifetime, you get better data.

Thanks for the inside baseball stuff.

by Anonymousreply 10110/14/2018

I live in Illinois and our Republican Governor is about to get TROUNCED in 22 days. He has been consistently down anywhere from 9 to 23 points on the high end in the polls for over a year now and I've never seen anything like it.

It's a weird year because the GOP is of course in trouble nationwide but at the same time some deep blue states are set to re-elect their GOP governors resoundingly in Vermont, Mass and Maryland and yet Rauner is floundering in the polls after his abysmal 4 year term in office. He has alienated both Democrats, Republicans and the middle during his term and his terrible showing at the polls may very well put Sean Casten, Brendan Kelly and Lauren Underwood in office.

I don't know much about Kelly or Underwood but I've been fairly unimpressed with Casten as his opponent Peter Roskam is a strong incumbent but this may be the year that the dominoes fall. For cycle after cycle, we've become so used to the affluent IL-10 district hogging attention because its blue on the presidential level but they like to elect moderate Republicans down ballot. This year it's not even on the board and the prognosticators are rating it as safe Democrat .

It's very strange that we're now being inundated with ads from districts that have been red for decades and Dems never otherwise took seriously as competitive districts. I think we're really going to win the House.

by Anonymousreply 10210/14/2018

Polls have been pointing to a Democratic takeover in the House for months and I believe it will happen but after two years of entirely GOP control in Washington, it really does seem like I'm living in bizarro world that Dems are really on the verge of regaining control of at least one body in Washington. It feels like it's been a decade since Dems have been out of power.

by Anonymousreply 10310/14/2018

I believe that the Blue wave in the House will translate to a Blue Wave ticket.

If that is so, there is every reason to believe that the Senate is in play.

by Anonymousreply 10410/14/2018

Pundits on the Sunday talk shows keep saying things are "tightening" in the Senate races, favoring the GOP, even suggesting the Republicans may increase their majority taking down incumbent Democrats, but I don't think so. They keep referring to the "Kavanaugh bounce" but that was short lived. I'll tell you one thing, and that is that Truth Brad Parscale (remember that name.) and Bill Shine, and possibly Steven Bannon, ( who may be forgotten but is definitely not gone from the scene) know this: It's Nixon on steroids as far as campaign strategies go.

Trump keeps referring to the "angry mob unfit to govern" line about the Democrats. Well, Nixon did the same damned thing in his own way. We were having massive demonstrations against the Vietnam war. There were riots all over the country. So he and Agnew were talking about that "vast silent majority of Americans" who don't demonstrate or riot, but go to work every day, trying to raise their families," and blah, blah, blah. He shit stirred and encouraged a backlash against the demonstrations and it worked. That's what Turmp is doing right now.

What they fail to realize is that these demonstrations are different. They are not dominated by young people as in the 60's and early 70's. When I have been out marching I've seen all ages, races, sexes, etc. including families with little kids. Now the anti Kavanaugh demonstrations were mostly women. But I also know that like Nixon era, these demonstrations have been infiltrated by paid agitators and trouble makers and we will see increasingly aggressive violent behavior coming out of the demonstrations. The complicit media will focus on that violence.

I think we need to chill on the demonstrating for now, and take it to the polls. I believe Trump is just looking for an excuse to declare martial law and really take over. I think guys like Mattis have been blocking that inclination, but if Mattis leaves after the Mid Terms there will be fewer curbs on Trump. I've also noticed a slight moderation in the tone of coverage. Either it's Trump fatigue or it's some kind of resignation, or collective exhaustion, but it seems like there has been a pulling back on the negative coverage of day to day stuff. it took forever but the media attention forced Scott Pruitt out. I don't see the same level of energy. I wonder what the internal polling of their news coverage is telling the networks.

The media jumps all over a spectacle like Kanye, but on policy stuff which is equally outrageous, they seem to be quieting the criticism. If he does start separating families again maybe it will re ignite the outrage, but I sense attempts to normalize unacceptable anti American policies and pronouncements. Congress has been criminally negligent, and derelict in its duties. Maybe the strategy has been to wear us down and exhaust us all along. It helps to preserve your outrage if you cut back and ration your time.

by Anonymousreply 10510/14/2018

I want to see polls in Indiana and Montana to see whether those races have tightened like some of the other races have. Tester is likely a lock for another term because he's kind of an institution there. That's definitely not the case for Donnelly in Indiana and I'm nervous to see how he's doing.

by Anonymousreply 10610/14/2018

Thank you, R105. I needed that pick me up!

by Anonymousreply 107Last Monday at 4:07 AM

The most important thing to tell people is vote whole party ticket. The Republican Party of today, as currently constituted is run by a gang of thugs. Period. I keep saying this: Tell people to turn off the TV set and stop worrying about who's "more qualified." Vote for the Democrat. Some of the most reliably Republican/Conservative stalwarts out here, people like George Will, etc. are saying the same thing. The only way to clean house is to vote all of them out. So it doesn't matter who is running. I don't care about smears, charges and countercharges, allegations and scandal. There is nothing anyone can tell me to stop me from voting for the Democrats.

The consequences of allowing the Republicans to run state governments state legislatures and state courts is more voter suppression, more gerrymandering, and a host of laws and regulations to strangle our voices and make our lives harder. They control education, prisons, and the courts that maintain the pipeline to prison. The consequences of them running Congress will result in them giving the wealthy ANOTHER tax cut so they can starve the government, they will reach for Medicare and Social Security, and if you think those things don't affect you remember:Someone will pay.

This is a shell game. They will shift costs to you and me. When your parents can no longer survive will you pay their medical bills or living expenses? When the Republicans abolish coverage for pre-existing conditions what happens to those people? Do they just disappear? Or, when 90% of us want some kind of reasonable gun safety regulations and mass shootings keep happening, who do we turn to when Congress continues to ignore us?

When the Republicans talk about Brett Kavanaugh as if he is a hero, remind your friends about Susan Collins. We cannot afford a Senate where we must depend on people like that to do the right thing. They won't. We cannot afford a Senate led by Mitch McConnell whose stated plan is to pack all the entire federal court system with people like Brett Kavanaugh. We have to put the Senate in play. We need both houses. We cannot depend on people of goodwill doing the right thing. We can't wait for "someone" to save us. We have to do it.

by Anonymousreply 108Last Monday at 5:29 AM

Here. Take some comfort from this:

by Anonymousreply 109Last Monday at 5:42 AM

Something is very, very, VERY, wrong

Donald Trump Jr. blasts Beto O’Rourke: ‘Irish guy pretending to be Hispanic’

Donald Trump Jr. slammed Beto O'Rourke on Monday, saying the Democratic challenger to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is "pretending" to be Latino.

"What’s authentic about an Irish guy pretending to be Hispanic? Asking for some friends Texas," Trump Jr. tweeted, linking to an article from ABC News that contended O'Rourke has kept the Senate race close partly because of a desire among Democratic voters to see authenticity in candidates.

by Anonymousreply 110Last Monday at 6:30 AM

If they're attacking Beto it's because Beto has a good shot of beating Cruz. Latino voters ought to be outraged. It's shocking to me that 40% of Latino voters went for Trump. I pray that changes. One thing I saw today in my Washington Post. Great big photos with headlines about all the starving WHITE PEOPLE in Florida who have not received any help!!!! No power, no food, no water. This is the fucking Florida Panhandle. WTF is the excuse this time? The FEMA operations suck, but so does Governor Scott who is too busy running for the Seante against Nelson, to do his fucking job. We need to raise hell about that. After all those are Republican voters he is screwing over.

by Anonymousreply 111Last Monday at 6:52 AM

[quote]If they're attacking Beto it's because Beto has a good shot of beating Cruz.


And they're employing the racist strategy. Cruz MUST be seeing numbers that we are not privy to.

[quote]Great big photos with headlines about all the starving WHITE PEOPLE in Florida who have not received any help!!!! No power, no food, no water.

I have no sympathy. However, if they need volunteers to distribute red MAGA hats I'm quite available.

by Anonymousreply 112Last Monday at 6:59 AM

[quote]It's a weird year because the GOP is of course in trouble nationwide but at the same time some deep blue states are set to re-elect their GOP governors resoundingly in Vermont, Mass and Maryland and yet Rauner is floundering in the polls after his abysmal 4 year term in office.

The other weird race to me is Scott Walker in Wisconsin ... he was the darling of the Republican Party just two years ago. The last poll I saw had him 10 points behind the Democratic challenger. What made the people of Wisconsin wake up to Walker's con job? (And how do we reproduce the effect on a national level with Trump?)

by Anonymousreply 113Last Monday at 7:02 AM

[quote]What made the people of Wisconsin wake up to Walker's con job? (And how do we reproduce the effect on a national level with Trump?)

The State is a mess. It's on the same road as Kansas. TRICKLE DOWN DOES NOT WORK! We've been to this rodeo more than once. Why aren't we learning this is beyond me.

by Anonymousreply 114Last Monday at 7:05 AM

R113 also, Scott Walker and the State Republican Party were real effective with voter suppression and gerrymandering. Maybe people in Wisconsin are tired of having their voices muted.

by Anonymousreply 115Last Monday at 7:15 AM

Why would I argue? I have no idea what will happen. I have fantasies that the whole Republican party will be run out of town.

by Anonymousreply 116Last Monday at 7:22 AM

The thing is, Trump is a crook and he kidnaps children and puts them in camps, why don't the republicans impeach the criminal? Why are people acting as if Trump is a normal politition?

by Anonymousreply 117Last Monday at 7:28 AM

As usual tricks are being played to keep Democrats from voting. The point is, Republicans hate Democracy.

by Anonymousreply 118Last Monday at 7:32 AM

Of course r118, Republicans are the less popular party. They do better when fewer Americans vote.

That is why making it harder for people to vote is always a priority for them.

by Anonymousreply 119Last Monday at 7:33 AM

Yeah, there's always a chance that this a shit outlier poll, but... Heller (R) leading by 7 points in Nevada is a really, really fucking bad sign.

by Anonymousreply 120Last Monday at 7:42 AM

[quote] What made the people of Wisconsin wake up to Walker's con job?

Union-busting! A real world consequence that has had a negative impact on the livelihood of WI Deplorables. Followed by the realization that their Republican heroes are less concerned with preserving "white" privilege and preoccupied with preserving "elite" privilege. Deplorables will face a reckoning for voting against their own economic interests.

by Anonymousreply 121Last Monday at 8:21 AM

Just remember the message is to vote Democratic. Period. Oh. And vote all the offices, especially your state legislatures. And your state courts, judges, etc. That non partisan judicial ballot is a fake out. Find out who is running and check out the chatter about them and who is endorsing them. By their friends ye shall know them.

by Anonymousreply 122Last Monday at 8:29 AM

MMPH! Something is REALLY wrong! Republicans are calling on Jesus... with sincerity!

Steve King Verified account @SteveKingIA

US House candidate, IA-4--I will retweet the devil if the devil tweets, “I Love Jesus.” It’s the message, not the messenger. @DMRegister

by Anonymousreply 123Last Monday at 10:24 AM

Yeah I saw that result r120, not good, but it is just one poll. Every other poll has shown a close race.

Plus it is Nevada, which has Harry Reid's impressive GOTV operation. I'm not optimistic about a lot of Senate races, but I have hope about that one.

by Anonymousreply 124Last Monday at 10:41 AM

The Senate seems like its out of reach. Ugh! As always the Democrats snatch the defeat from the jaws of victory. At least the House and the Gob elections seems like its going to go their way.

by Anonymousreply 125Last Monday at 11:27 AM

The Senate map is historically terrible r125, the Dems were always the big underdog for ever being able to flip the Senate in '18.

I don't know how many times this has to be repeated.

by Anonymousreply 126Last Monday at 11:32 AM

Yes, but a Nevada flip should be an easy peasy thing to do. Which seats can the dems win in 2020? Only Colorado?

by Anonymousreply 127Last Monday at 11:58 AM

R127 we will win seats with volunteers like yourself who phone bank, write postcards, text voters, donate.

We are not just winning for 2018, we are building for 2020.

by Anonymousreply 128Last Monday at 12:16 PM


by Anonymousreply 129Last Monday at 12:19 PM

No reason why Rosen shouldn’t beat Heller in Nevada. He’s a Trump disaster.

by Anonymousreply 130Last Monday at 12:35 PM

[quote]Yeah, there's always a chance that this a shit outlier poll

It's Emerson, so yeah, it's not the best, as they're a "B" pollster. That's a pretty major outlier from all prior polling so until they're confirmation from another major pollster, you can pretty much ignore it. That said, the polling is showing a slight edge towards Heller.

by Anonymousreply 131Last Monday at 12:36 PM

[quote]The last poll I saw had him 10 points behind the Democratic challenger. What made the people of Wisconsin wake up to Walker's con job?

That's another poll that's pretty far out there, although the polling on that race has been pretty scarce. The latest poll is a Marquette poll that came in a week later with Walker +1. There just isn't enough data there, although it's gratifying to find that Walker is in trouble.

by Anonymousreply 132Last Monday at 12:39 PM

Nevada is becoming Los Angeles light with all the transplants. I hope Rosen beats him. Heller is an arrogant ass.

by Anonymousreply 133Last Monday at 12:40 PM

Really discouraged by that Nevada poll. Emerson is a pretty good pollster.

by Anonymousreply 134Last Monday at 12:45 PM


Here was the result from 2012 Nevada U.S. Senate:

2012 Nevada U.S. Senate: Dean Heller (R), 45.87% | Shelley Berkley (D), 44.71% | Margin: R+1.16

If 2018 Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen—in what is supposed to be a blue wave of a national midterm election year for her party—fails to erase that bare margin, and win a Democratic pickup while unseating Republican incumbent Dean Heller, then she was a horrible candidate.

by Anonymousreply 135Last Monday at 12:51 PM

I wouldn’t consider Jacky a horrible candidate. She’s been aggressive going at Heller and has proclaimed him as “Senator Spineless” I’m every ad and it seems to have stuck. She is definitely a step up from the horrible, no good Shelley Berkeley. If Shelley was a competent candidate without a scandal last time around, she would be defending the seat as a Democrat this time around.

by Anonymousreply 136Last Monday at 12:58 PM

Ari Melber is reporting that Republicans are starting to fight blaming whoever about why they lost the House.


by Anonymousreply 137Last Monday at 2:08 PM


by Anonymousreply 138Last Monday at 2:45 PM

[quote] But I truly believe that “you are what you think” and so I choose to not utter these fears aloud because I don’t want to give them more power than they already have. Right actions lead to right thoughts

Ah, so you *are* an OCD idiot who believes in your own powers to sway elections by magical thinking.

Called it

You’re always screaming at people who have opinions you consider negative; calling them trolls and Russians.’re magical! You’re not going to let people who disagree with you ruin the election with their negativity. It’s up to you to vanquish any doubts or differences so as to save the election!

by Anonymousreply 139Last Monday at 2:48 PM

Wow, that video at R138 is something. Where the fuck were they when Trump displayed his lack of a moral compass, his lack of temperament and character issues during the campaign? I'm happy that some of his supporters are changing the way they look at him but they looked the other way when they voted for him in 2016.

by Anonymousreply 140Last Monday at 5:50 PM

[quote]Really discouraged by that Nevada poll. Emerson is a pretty good pollster.

Emerson is a decent pollster, although sometimes it has a Republican lean.

However, more than one poll has now shown Rosen losing ground to Heller.

It's still possible that Harry Reid's strong ground operation in Nevada can pull out a win for Rosen, but it's becoming more dicey for her.

by Anonymousreply 141Last Monday at 5:53 PM

Poll Troll, you have no idea how hated Heller is in Southern Nevada.

by Anonymousreply 142Last Monday at 11:38 PM

God, if we can't take out Heller we're really fucked when it comes to the Senate. Ousting an incumbent is hard but I didn't think it would be such a challenge in an environment like 2018. Rosen has basically done everything right. I can't believe she's still behind with all the ads that have hammered Heller for his flip flop on healthcare.

by Anonymousreply 143Last Monday at 11:44 PM

Richard Linklater has released another Beto ad.

by Anonymousreply 144Last Tuesday at 4:26 AM

From a friend of mine who lives in Dallas;

"There is a big amount of support for him.. I see Beto signs everywhere.... like everywhere... He does have a good chance.... I am surprised the Dems are so quiet on showing earlier videos of Trump slamming Cruz..... And they should be. He is a piece of crap. All his adds on tv here are negative about Beto.... nothing positive about him.... just negative about Beto. Whereas, Beto's adds show a positive message.... Lets see..."

by Anonymousreply 145Last Tuesday at 7:34 AM

Turnout soars on the first day of early voting in Georgia

At 69K voters, nearly 3-1/2 times the early voters of 2014 cast a ballot on the first day of early voting in GA

In-person early voting is open in all GA's counties, until Nov. 2

by Anonymousreply 146Last Tuesday at 7:54 AM

Trump voter:

For God's sake. Someone has to do something.

We've got a crazy man driving the train.

He will destroy the country

Part 2

by Anonymousreply 147Last Tuesday at 10:17 AM


by Anonymousreply 148Last Tuesday at 10:25 AM

“I’m mortified every day," Trump voters explain why they regret voting for him.

by Anonymousreply 149Last Tuesday at 6:20 PM

^Oops. Maybe there’s still hope.

by Anonymousreply 150Last Tuesday at 6:21 PM

Ad attacking Sen. Menendez brings up old, unproven allegations that he slept with underage prostitutes.

by Anonymousreply 151Last Wednesday at 5:28 AM

R151, the GOP style is to make accusations and dredge up old scandals. It 's Standard Operating Procedure. People need to turn off the noise. Stop listening to the bullshit, charges counter charges, smears, lies, and negative crap. This year I don't want to hear what anyone "stands for" what anyone is against. I know what the Dems stand for. They want better healthcare, tougher environmental standards, reasonable gun safety regulations, higher minimum wage and they'll fight to preserve Medicare and Social Security. I know how they stand on Gay Rights, Voting Rights, Human Rights. I don't need to listen to the bullshit. Let the GOP spend a fortune making the TV networks fat with all their millions. Fuck them. Just go vote for the Democrat. Period. Fuck all these motherfuckers.

by Anonymousreply 152Last Wednesday at 6:56 AM

Trump has wrapped his arms around the Saudis. Let's hang this barbaric murder of journalist Jamal Kasoggi around his neck. Let's throw blood soaked shirts at him and let him now we will remember this on election day. I'm carrying this message today all over DL and all over my social media accounts. I urge everyone to do likewise. Trump embraces murderers, but this time he has really fucked up. This time the man recorded his own death, hacked to pieces, butchered while he was still alive inside his own country's embassy! Embassies have historically been places of refuge and safety. Trump is truly a monster and if we lose the Midterms he will unleash the worst of it. I believe that in my bones.

by Anonymousreply 153Last Wednesday at 7:03 AM

I wish we had a "truth in advertising" law for political campaigns. Ads are rife with lies, misstatements, misconstruals and outright inventions -- they should be punishable by law. Free speech doesn't mean you're free to make things up about an opponent.

by Anonymousreply 154Last Wednesday at 8:33 AM

Fabulously wealthy Florida Senate candidate Rick Scott -- implicated in a mammoth Medicare fraud before he ran for the Florida governor's office - has been continuing his crooked ways in office, reports the New York Times.

"Mr. Scott, who is now running to unseat the incumbent senator Bill Nelson, created a $73.8 million investment account that he called a blind trust. But an examination of Mr. Scott’s finances shows that his trust has been blind in name only. There have been numerous ways for him to have knowledge about his holdings: Among other things, he transferred many assets to his wife and neither “blinded” nor disclosed them. And their investments have included corporations, partnerships and funds that stood to benefit from his administration’s actions."

by Anonymousreply 155Last Wednesday at 8:59 AM

As if anything will happen to Scott. Power has been bought and paid for by corrupt businesses & politicians and nobody can stop it. The laws and conservative judges are on their side.

by Anonymousreply 156Last Wednesday at 9:12 AM


by Anonymousreply 157Last Wednesday at 12:41 PM

Atlanta Journal Chronicle reporter Ben Brasch:

There’s an estimated wait of 3 hours to vote early for the midterms in Cobb, one of Georgia’s largest counties. Janine Eveler, head of Cobb elections, said some people lined up at 7 a.m. — the polls open at 8 a.m.

(Let's hope that's Democratic enthusiasm at work.)

by Anonymousreply 158Last Wednesday at 12:52 PM

CNN's Andrew Kaczynski:

Eric Trump got asked on conservative talk radio about the "horseshoe face" comment: "America elected a fighter, he's a counter's exactly what this country needs and I'm proud of him."

Twitter commenter:

Imagine being proud of your father because he insulted the mistress that he raw dogged while your step-mother was nursing your half-brother. That is what it is to be Eric Trump.

by Anonymousreply 159Last Wednesday at 1:02 PM

Why would someone call this Fat Fuck a "counterpuncher" when he's actually on offense and attacking other people?

Eric Trump is fucking retarded.

by Anonymousreply 160Last Wednesday at 3:16 PM

Beto is going to annihilate Lying Ted.

16 million NEW voter registrations in Texas and they are not even close to falling to the Republicans.

by Anonymousreply 161Last Wednesday at 3:25 PM


Texas has 28 million people.

About 20 million of them are eligible to vote.

Are you seriously stupid enough to believe that 16 million people registered to vote in Texas because of Beto?

by Anonymousreply 162Last Wednesday at 6:50 PM

15.6 million registered voters in Texas, up 11% from the last midterm election.

by Anonymousreply 163Last Wednesday at 6:54 PM

Unfortunately the Senate seems like a long shot, with even losing a couple of seats. On the other side of the coin the House seems pretty much certain with even picking up seats in hardcord deplorable states like Kansas. And up to 8 gobernorships seem also to go to the dems.

by Anonymousreply 164Last Wednesday at 10:47 PM

The problem with reading too much into that number, r163, is that we don't know how much is enthusiasm generated by the Dems or Beto and how much is simply assholes moving into and re-registering in one of the fastest-growing shitholes in the Union. My (thankfully distant) relatives moved there last year, and bigger Trumptard deplorable fuckwits you will never see.

by Anonymousreply 165Last Wednesday at 10:48 PM

That smug piece of shit, McConnell was on TV talking about the possibility of gaining seats for the GOP. That is totally unacceptable. We cannot allow this. I can see them trying to steal seats. I can see Scott in Florida especially trying to steal. And Ted Cruz will do whatever it takes to hold on. This is war. We need to look at what we have and work to hold it, and find two that are vulnerable and go after them. It's a numbers game. I want to get rid of McConnell SO bad!!! I hate him.

by Anonymousreply 166Last Thursday at 7:28 AM

Wait a minute....

Beto is still in this!

"Texas poised to elect its first two Latina congresswomen"

At a tender age, Sylvia Garcia picked cotton and hacked hay in the fields of south Texas to help her low-income family make ends meet. Veronica Escobar grew up in the border city of El Paso, waiting tables and taking fast food orders during her teenage years.

In a few months, both women could become the first Latinas to represent the Lone Star State in Congress. The two Democratic nominees are running in deep-blue, majority Latino urban districts and are poised to cruise to victory in their respective contests in the November midterms.

"This is the year of women of color," Garcia told CBS News. "This is the year of the Latina."

While Beto isn't Latino he is from El Paso and a Democrat. So????

by Anonymousreply 167Last Thursday at 10:53 AM

R161 is probably a typo, since the number of new voter registrations in Texas is 1.6M, not 16M.

by Anonymousreply 168Last Thursday at 10:56 AM

Texas Democrats have registered 16 billion new voters this year. I think Beto has a great chance at beating Cruz.

by Anonymousreply 169Last Thursday at 11:00 AM

R169, no, it's trillion. 16 Trillion.

by Anonymousreply 170Last Thursday at 11:12 AM


Vanderbilt poll

Bredesen (D) (44)

Blackburn (R) (43)


Bredesen leads with women, Blackburn with men


800 registered voters

Oct. 8 to Oct. 13

landlines and cell phones

by Anonymousreply 171Last Thursday at 2:17 PM

Someone is really not polling Tennessee correctly.

by Anonymousreply 172Last Thursday at 2:45 PM

I should clarify: I'm not saying this latest poll is inaccurate. But we've got a pretty extreme range of polls in Tennessee. One of these firms is way off.

by Anonymousreply 173Last Thursday at 2:46 PM

Well, most of the recent polls favor Blackburn, although the new Reuters poll a few days ago showed her lead was narrow.

Now this one has a narrow lead (basically a tie) for Bredesen.

Odds still favor Blackburn winning, but Bredesen still has an outside shot.

by Anonymousreply 174Last Thursday at 3:02 PM

These fucking state wide elections for Senate are like deja vu all over again. I remember in 2016, the polls diverging widely in some states not all. And the close races and the "narrowing gap" and then Boom. races tighten and suddenly we are fucked.

by Anonymousreply 175Last Thursday at 3:07 PM

Well, it's certainly true that the Democrats lost some ground in some of the Senate races in 2016.

The Democrats were successful in picking up 2 Senate seats in 2016 -- New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan) and Illinois (Tammy Duckworth).

But in Wisconsin, Russ Feingold's polling lead collapsed as November approached.

And the same happened to Evan Bayh in Indiana.

by Anonymousreply 176Last Thursday at 3:16 PM

Blackburn is a cunt.

And I should know.

by Anonymousreply 177Last Thursday at 3:25 PM

Beto town hall talking place on CNN right now.

He seems....animated. lol

by Anonymousreply 178Last Thursday at 3:28 PM

Wasn't Bredesen leading Blackburn in the polls at one point? He's an excellent, experienced candidate. Why wouldn't it go back his way?

Also, what about MEEEEEEEEEEE?

by Anonymousreply 179Last Thursday at 3:32 PM

[quote]Wasn't Bredesen leading Blackburn in the polls at one point? He's an excellent, experienced candidate. Why wouldn't it go back his way?

Bredesen had a stronger lead earlier in the year, much of it based on his strong name recognition as a former Governor.

But it's harder today for Democrats to win statewide in Tennessee compared to the days when he was Governor.

by Anonymousreply 180Last Thursday at 3:47 PM

Beto has finally come out swinging with some good ads. Too late? We shall see.

by Anonymousreply 181Last Thursday at 4:28 PM

[quote]I should clarify: I'm not saying this latest poll is inaccurate. But we've got a pretty extreme range of polls in Tennessee. One of these firms is way off.

They're being bought off. Who cares about accuracy? If their reputations suffer they will just close down and reopen under a new name. Perception is all that matters.

by Anonymousreply 182Last Thursday at 4:51 PM

If Bredesen wins it will be because of TSwift.

by Anonymousreply 183Last Thursday at 4:56 PM


A local restaurant owner in Mt. Juliet, Tennessee has faced backlash since he rented out his event room for U.S. Senate candidate Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn on Saturday.

Tom Courtney of Courtney’s Restaurant and Catering rented out the space for Blackburn to host a meet-and-greet last weekend.

“People have posted they love our food, but will no longer come to the restaurant,” Courtney told The Wilson Post. “I have never in my life experienced such a thing. It’s scary.”

Ya know... I'm just not buying all of this Republican whining. I think that they are the ones doing all of this stuff...

by Anonymousreply 184Last Thursday at 4:57 PM

On Sept 30 Democrats had a 31% chance of flipping the Senate,Oct 18 it’s 21%. I think election day, Nov 6th, depends on whether minority voters are silently waiting to pull it all out like black women did for Doug Jones. Polls have a hard time reflecting the minority vote.

The polls shift downward seems to be Repubs running back to their party because of the Kavanaugh bomb in the Senate.

by Anonymousreply 185Last Thursday at 6:43 PM

^^Nate Silver

by Anonymousreply 186Last Thursday at 6:45 PM

The polls tightened due to dark, Russian and billionaire money pouring in for the Repugnants.

by Anonymousreply 187Last Thursday at 6:45 PM

That Veritas video of McCaskill staffers, and her claim that Hawley helped set it up, has put her on the deep defensive. Every article is hammering her response and evasive denials.

Apparently PV has several more videos of staffers saying the same things. They’re releasing another one tomorrow that allegedly refutes her most recent denial. The gun control issues are probably going to be the deciding factor.

I wonder what her next round of poll numbers will look like. She was in a dead heat before the videos.

2+ weeks in an election that is going to see the highest turnout for a midterm in 70 years is a lifetime.

Many of the voters a tenuous voters, energized now, but any missteps could be disastrous.

Bredesen vs Blackburn is a similar situation. Shady ops to discover dirt are underway all over the country.

by Anonymousreply 188Last Thursday at 7:49 PM

FWIW, I don’t vote. Neither party actually wants to fix the systemic problems.

A tax code that encourages savings and investments

Enact a foreign policy that keeps the USA secure and leaves the rest of the world alone

End the unelected, tenured, incomptent bureaucracy that makes things like drug discovery and innovation haphazard,

End to the fact that we have the largest per capita prison population due to insane drug laws

End the unsustainable deficit that is already consuming more in interest payments than education, infrastructure, and ALL (non Senior) welfare programs,

End an entrenched and incredibly powerful conglomeration of international industries, military manufacturers, and bureaucrats turned lobbyists turned more powerful bureaucrats and then into more powerful lobbyists.

Bureaucrats will protect their jobs with violence.

Unfortunately, none of these policies will ever be embraced by either side until the final collapse of Keynesian based policies destroys the credibility of the Infallible Experts.

by Anonymousreply 189Last Thursday at 7:51 PM

r189 wrong thread. You were looking for 'Let's be a Russian Troll Farm.' You're welcome.

by Anonymousreply 190Last Thursday at 7:53 PM

what videos, r188?

No linky

by Anonymousreply 191Last Thursday at 7:54 PM


Not linking to videos. You can search yourself. Here’s a video.

Apparently the DEAD perv in Nevada is now expected to win, because Republicans who didn’t feel comfortable with a brothel owner will now vote since they can pick another republican.

by Anonymousreply 192Last Thursday at 8:04 PM

So what's the "threat" the restaurant guy found so scary?

Someone posted online that they liked the food in the place but since they hate Marsha Blackburn they're not going to eat there anymore. And he's freaking out? He's scared? It's "news" for some reason?

Fucking attention-whore snowflake.

by Anonymousreply 193Last Thursday at 8:33 PM

Claire's fine. She fucking KILLED Hawley in their debate tonight. They say it's why he's going all out with the smear campaign but I'm sure he would have done it even if he hadn't lost so bad.

by Anonymousreply 194Last Thursday at 8:41 PM

I firmly believe that Democrats stopped participating in polling months ago.

Their rage at Trump is palpable.

We are seeing triple the number of voters in races where there are projected dead heats.

These races will not be dead heats.

by Anonymousreply 195Last Thursday at 11:53 PM

The Republicans are out here boldly lying, smearing, falsifying their own record in Congress and offering nothing. Their entire campaign is attacking the opponent, not proposing anything. Now I will say this. Since I have worked on many campaigns, national and local: Negative campaigning doesn't change minds. Negative campaigning discourages voters. It suppresses the vote. The Republicans benefit from that. They get their "grievance voters" out and the Dems and Indies get discouraged and stay home. So turn off the TV sets. Tell your friends to ignore everything. Tell them to remember what the Republicans have done. How they went after Obamacare, what? 57 times and they're still talking about it? Remember when they went through all that nonsense and then had no plan of their own to replace it with? Look at Mitch McConnell. "My job is to see him fail." That is what he said the day after Obama got elected. They cut taxes for the wealthy and they have nothing to offer voters. Nothing. It's all smoke and mirrors to them. They have a plan. Starve government and privatize everything. No accountability. And let the masses fight one another.Give them red meat, scare them. We have to remind people of this. Don't overwhelm sometime voters with policy stuff keep it simple. But mainly tell them to judge people by their actions and the GOP cannot withstand that scrutiny. So turn off the TV ads and just vote for the Democrats. All the way.

by Anonymousreply 196Last Friday at 3:00 AM

At this point I'm not even confident the House will flip. The Trumptards will never change. They're mentally deficient and will follow that fat fuck and the Republicans in Congress to their deaths if need be. They're brain dead cretins.

by Anonymousreply 197Last Friday at 3:26 AM

McConnell’s lies about SS and Medicare should be in every ad for the Democrats.

by Anonymousreply 198Last Friday at 3:40 AM

Exactly, R198! Democrats should be running those ads right now!. Also, they should run a split screen showing Republicans promising to destroy ObamaCare versus what they are trying to say now.

by Anonymousreply 199Last Friday at 3:47 AM

Yep, Democrats lack a cohesive message

by Anonymousreply 200Last Friday at 4:10 AM

Hopefully that's happening. The window for new ads is closing. If you're working with a political consultant and he convinces you to spend another $20,000 you don't have to shoot "just one more" TV ad, fire him. It takes a minimum of twelve exposures for an ad to have the desired effect and penetrate a voter's psyche to remember it and be affected by it.

Right now every effort should go to GOTV. keep identifying your support keep reaching out, knock on doors, go where voters are and say hello, please let's work together to make sure we have decent healthcare good educational opportunities and that we can work to have stronger environmental laws. keep it simple. Talk about job insecurity, and make sure they know that if Mitch McConnell cuts Social Security and Medicare we will all pay for it. Cutting social programs and cutting taxes doesn't solve anything. It just shifts the costs onto the state or the city, and most assuredly to us the voters.

Focus on your absentee ballots, your early voters, and get people moving. Push them. If some jerk smiles and says, I don't vote, it doesn't do any good, anyway. Look at them as if they are an alien from outer space. Peer pressure them into feeling remorseful. ...and hopefully the Trump supporters will stay home. Whether they do or not, remember, there are a lot more of us than there are of them.

by Anonymousreply 201Last Friday at 4:16 AM

Sorry r189, but I didn't read beyond "FWIW, I don't vote"

by Anonymousreply 202Last Friday at 4:20 AM

I’m mailing my absentee ballot today.

by Anonymousreply 203Last Friday at 6:35 AM

"Think You’re Having a Hard Time? I’ve Got $5M Worth of Negative Ads Coming at Me."

Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA), commiserating with an inmate in the Chesterfield County Jail’s addiction support group.

by Anonymousreply 204Last Friday at 6:44 AM

Dave Brat's opponent, Abigail Spanberger, gave him one hell of a smackdown, R204 (copying a twitter video that was posted on another thread here). The race there is considered a tossup.

by Anonymousreply 205Last Friday at 9:55 AM

I actually told several people "if you don't vote, you can't bitch" when I was out canvassing for Clinton.

They were "too busy" or "she's gonna win anyway". This was in a swing state that Clinton lost. I'm still fucking pissed at those idiots.

by Anonymousreply 206Last Friday at 10:05 AM

And, this is why Republicans win. They KNOW how stupid the American people are. This is NYC?

by Anonymousreply 207Last Friday at 10:18 AM

Do straight guys wear tight t-shirts like this? Do they spend this much time on their hair and appearance?

by Anonymousreply 208Last Friday at 10:19 AM

[quote]Unfortunately, none of these policies will ever be embraced by either side until the final collapse of Keynesian based policies destroys the credibility of the Infallible Experts.

Considering that Keynesian economic theories have pretty much been vindicated over the past decade (unlike, say, Austrian economics, which got everything badly wrong), I think you'll have a long wait.

by Anonymousreply 209Last Friday at 5:20 PM

[quote]That Veritas video of McCaskill staffers, and her claim that Hawley helped set it up, has put her on the deep defensive.

Not at all. She actually (and quite publicly) [italic]voted[/italic] in 2-13 for what they caught her saying in that supposed sting. So apparently she says in private what she does publicly in the Senate. Wow! That's awful! Clearly, she needs to be strung up and we need to bow down to O'Keefe!

[quote]Every article is hammering her response and evasive denials.

Really? Because I'm reading the articles now and I can't find a single one that is "hammering her response."

[quote]Apparently PV has several more videos of staffers saying the same things.

That's probably because she voted, quite publicly, for it in the Senate. This isn't exactly a secret. And she's hammering Hawley for refusing to open an investigation into the potentially illegal activities.

by Anonymousreply 210Last Friday at 5:25 PM

I loved this headline: "Claire McCaskill Revealed to Be a Democrat in James O'Keefe's Boring 'Expose'"

[quote]In a bombshell of Totally Journalistic Proportions, James O'Keefe this week revealed that politician Claire McCaskill, a sitting U.S. senator, is actually a Democrat. In Missouri.

by Anonymousreply 211Last Friday at 5:27 PM

Oh... figures that the guy falsely trashing McCaskill is the same idiot who says he doesn't vote and wrote that silly rant about Keynesian policies.

by Anonymousreply 212Last Friday at 5:30 PM

[quote]That Veritas video of McCaskill staffers, and her claim that Hawley helped set it up, has put her on the deep defensive.

Oh, please... Your comment is proof positive that you are simply nothing more than a troll. You're really going to try and post and/or mention James O'Keefe's mess here? On this board? Among this audience?

You have also proven yourself to be a dumb ass...

by Anonymousreply 213Last Friday at 5:33 PM
by Anonymousreply 214Yesterday at 10:12 AM

Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump

All levels of government and Law Enforcement are watching carefully for VOTER FRAUD, including during EARLY VOTING. Cheat at your own peril. Violators will be subject to maximum penalties, both civil and criminal!

Your Fuhrer has spoken!

by Anonymousreply 215a day ago

Oh! They're just throwing anything out there now;

Trump says GOP working on tax plan for middle class (Congress isn't in session, by the way)

Trump: All Republicans will support people with pre-existing conditions 'after I speak to them'

Republicans Are Now Running as the Defenders of Healthcare—While Simultaneously Trying to Gut It This is a shameless gaslighting extravaganza, featuring President Trump and a host of 2018 candidates.

by Anonymousreply 216a day ago
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