Race for New Jersey governor is tied

I guess we’ll have Gen X to thank for it, once again.

Ban sodomy? Well, he'll have to ban it for heteros too.

Looks like Elon's vote-erase program will be used in every election now (for a price).

Sherrill was up 8 points recently in another poll.

Sherrill needs to get off her ass and run more TV ads.

I'm in the NYC/NJ area, and I'm seeing about four Shitarelli ads for every one Sherrill. I'm tired of muting the MAGAt.

New Jersey has only had one female governor and she was a Republican. Sherrill is DOA.

He doesn't want to ban sodomy itself. He wants to ban talk about it in schools--which of course doesn't actually happen and is just a way for him to fear monger.

The national archives released its unrelated files on her to Ciattarelli campaign which included her service academy/military records, home address, and social security number.

Looks like the under 50s can make the difference if they choose.

[quote] The national archives released its unrelated files on her to Ciattarelli campaign which included her service academy/military records

Apparently there is a scandal she was associated with at the academy.

Apparently you don’t read well.

Unredacted files, not unrelated. I went back and corrected it once but it didn't take.

Not much of a scandal. Some classmates cheated or something. She wasn't involved but she didn't rat them out.

She wasn't accused of cheating but they didn't let her walk during graduation because she didn't snitch on others who did cheat. I can't really imagine many people caring tbh.

I fear NJ may flip solely based on these two factors.

1. NJ property taxes are the 2nd highest in the US and did not improve under Dem Gov Murphy. Citarelli’s ad runs often with Sherrill admitting sometimes it’s necessary to raise taxes. She comes off badly.

2. There are highly unpopular, Dem-led low-income housing mandates in already densely populated towns in the most densely populated state.

Eyesore apartment complexes are going up in leafy, wealthy house-only suburbs that mess up traffic & school capacity. Residents are pissed that the town they love is being altered by outside ideology.

*Ciattarelli.

Property tax rates in NJ are set at the local level not at the state level. The governor is not responsible for higher property tax rates.

R16 Despite that, Ciattarelli has a multi-point plan claiming he can ease tax burdens via various methods inckuding caps, exemptions for seniors, getting rid of taxes on home improvements, rejiggering school funding, etc. I won’t link as the sources coming up are from places like Fox.

Actually, I think the leak of her records may help her. It shows she was not involved in the cheating scandal, but was punished for not turning in students who were. People will like that. No one really likes a rat.

Uhoh, he is moderate on abortion. Ciattarelli supports banning abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy except in cases where the mother’s or fetus’s health is at risk or in instances of rape or incest.

Taxes are set locally, but property tax rebates, caps for seniors, etc are done at the state level.

Local coverage

I don’t know if everybody realizes this: New Jersey is absolutely purple and not blue. It is almost a battleground state. Harris only won NJ by +5.9 in Nov 2024. (Trump won the hotly contested state of Arizona by +5.6%.)

[quote] Actually, I think the leak of her records may help her. It shows she was not involved in the cheating scandal, but was punished for not turning in students who were. People will like that. No one really likes a ra

I should say that’s her story. Apparently, the actual disciplinary records have not been released and now he’s making that into an issue.

Look. If these dumb asses put a republican in their governors house after all this shit we've gone through thus far, then there's just no hope for them or us.

It scares the shit out of me that a MAGA-lite like Jack Ciattarelli will win, but I predict he will. Murphy is an incredibly unpopular governor and Sherrill is tied to him. The current revelations will continue to hurt her.

His ads are very effective and hers kind of suck. Who cares if she is/was a helicopter pilot? Is she going to fly people around while she's governor? He focuses on taxes (and lies) but she doesn't seems to focus on any issues. My gut told me once she was nominated, he would probably win. Hope I am wrong.

He plays the pronouns card.

I've seen them both at the same event speaking. He's a more effective communicator, unfortunately.

It's not like NJ has had Republican governors before...

R20 which are long-existing and widely available.

She still running the same, basic ad from Her congressional campaigns. She needs more.

MJ is still blue. It’s long history includes elections Republican governors more often than not. Both can be true.

NJ**

The “not sure” voters need to fuck right off.

R32, NJ is turned purple. The racist, sexist, irresponsible imbecile garnered a sizable percentage of the vote in 2024. Pundits talked about the state becoming "purple."

Sherrill needs to campaign on quality of life issues in testate -- affordability being the primary issue -- instead of just tying Ciattarelli to the trash in DC. That did not work for Dems in '24.

NJ has two Democratic Senators, 9 Democrats out of 12 House seats, 25 Democrats out of 40 state senators and 52 Democrats out of 80 assembly members. Democrats control 9 of the 15 counties where power is not shared.

9 of 14 counties*

The state may vote Democratic but not always for Governor. She's running a bad campaign and talking about Trump/24 doesn't work. He looks like the likely winner. I also thought Hochul was vulnerable but she had good political instincts. I don't think she'll lose to the female Trumper probably running against her but who knows. Dems need to run on issues!

[quote] NJ has two Democratic Senators, 9 Democrats out of 12 House seats

While Trump was the first Republican to win a majority of New Jersey’s counties in 2024, 9 of the 12 he won were the 9 smallest counties in the state. Republicans statewide haven’t been able to overcome the numerical advantage that Democrats have in the big urban areas like Newark, Camden, and Trenton. The Congressional map is designed by an “independent” commission that like others are actually partisan. The commission is 7-6 Democratic and the members voted on strict party lines to approve the Democratic gerrymander that was designed to give Democrats 9 out 12 seats, which it successfully did in 2024.

I would say that New Jersey is still safely Democratic, even though “New Jersey had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after New York.” The trend could move New Jersey to true purple in the future, but at the moment, Democrats would have to have a really bad candidate (even worse than Menendez) to lose statewide. Is Sherrill that bad? We’ll have to wait to see what voters think.

[quote] While Trump was the first Republican to win a majority of New Jersey’s counties in 2024

Sorry, I left out “since 1992”.

[quote]I guess we’ll have Gen X to thank for it, once again.

Jack is a Boomer, dear.

The most recent gubernatorial poll (as noted in the OP's post) has Sherrill & Ciattarelli TIED.

And here's the thing: I thought she was a weak candidate from the very beginning. Before the primary, more than a few people behind the scenes were saying that Sherrill had the best chance of winning the general election as compared with the other Democrats running, and that we should just bite our tongue and vote for her if we wanted a Democratic governor. However, I think some people who did so are having buyer's remorse, and R26 and R28 note some of the reasons.

My first choice was Ras Baraka because he's probably the most popular mayor Newark has had in a long time, he's a straightforward speaker, and he's not a bullshitter - but most importantly, he'd be able to easily handle Ciattarelli without even trying. (Interestingly he came in 2nd in the primary.)

[quote]Republicans statewide haven’t been able to overcome the numerical advantage that Democrats have in the big urban areas like Newark, Camden, and Trenton.

True enough in the past, but I don't see the interest in Sherrill's candidacy, and I suspect those voters are going to stay home and simply not vote. (It's not helping that a lot of new statewide registered voters are Republican.)

It'll be like the 2024 presidential election all over again: it wasn't that a ton of people last year switched from voting blue to voting red; it was that a huge number of people who had voted blue in 2020 stayed home in 2024.

I fear voter apathy on our side in this gubernatorial election.

Like Mandami in NYC, it's affordability more than actual ideology that's driving this race.

Being scene as the status quo is a tough place to be with those dynamics.

[QUOTE]Apparently, the actual disciplinary records have not been released and now he’s making that into an issue.

One of the issues is that the cheating scandal involved 130 cadets. Release would open up a can of worms and unfairly drag on a lot of people while creating a distraction. He's unwilling to believe the Navy disciplined her fairly?

Governor Meatballs won. Twice.

It’s a high tax state and that hurts Democrats in the governor’s race.

[quote]It’s a high tax state

Since the people of New Jersey have accepted it for so long, why would they object to it now?

The people of New Jersey have not accepted it. That’s why Republicans can win here. That’s probably a big reason Trump almost won. Inflation not only drives up costs for voters, but also costs for governments which means higher taxes. I’m not up to speed, but I believe certain state subsidies to towns recently expired. These had allowed local taxes to remain relatively stable for a while. No more.

I never blame voters for choosing differently—I blame my party when we fail to win. It’s our job to weed out bad policies, refine our message, and deliver it effectively on the right platforms. If Mikie loses in a heavily Democratic state with Trump back in D.C., the fault isn’t with voters who backed the MAGA candidate—it’s with her campaign. Democrats need to make a hard choice: either separate from the “woke” wing and start rebuilding to win back the Independents who’ve drifted to the GOP, or find another strategy that actually works. Right now, it isn’t. For most people, the real issues are the high cost of living and high taxes—and she hasn’t offered a plan that truly resonates. A Dem loss in NJ will have Trump strutting like a peacock.

NJ Democrats DID "separate from the woke wing."

They picked the most centrist candidate running with the exception of maybe Gottheimer.

Could it be that local politics often have little or nothing to do with national politics? r49 is harping on the woke shit because it's the only thing he knows how to harp on at this point. Give it up already.

[quote]Republicans statewide haven’t been able to overcome the numerical advantage that Democrats have in the big urban areas like Newark, Camden, and Trenton.

All shitholes.

[quote][R49] is harping on the woke shit because it's the only thing he knows how to harp on at this point. Give it up already.

Will voters?

[Quote] Ciattarelli has a multi-point plan claiming he can ease tax burdens via various methods inckuding caps, exemptions for seniors, getting rid of taxes on home improvements, rejiggering school funding, etc.

Since I’ve been alive, candidates of all stripes have been promising tax reduction. NOT ONE has ever been successful. I’m surprised that New Jerseyans even believe political ads about taxes any more

NJ can vote for MAGA at its own peril.

In a year, no one will believe you when you claim, “We didn’t vote for this!!” Yes the fuck you did

Harping on the woke? Are you kidding me? Have you looked at their positions and what they’ve done to the Democratic Party brand? If that’s your thing, fine—but you have to be realistic. Many lifelong Democrats, people who have donated and supported the party for decades, don’t agree with a lot of it and see the damage it has caused. How is it possible that Democrats are still polling below Republicans on so many issues, even after a year of Trump back in D.C.?

It doesn’t matter if he does anything about high taxes. It’s the fact that he say he will. Mamdani won’t be able to make NYC more affordable either. But that’s what won him the primary.

That’s what killed the Dems in 2024. They didn’t address the issues that people cared about and focused too much on issues that didn’t matter or were unpopular with voters.

This is Martha Coakley all over again

STOP RUNNING WHITE WOMEN

NO ONE LIKES THEM

STOP RUNNING WHITE WOMEN

NO ONE LIKES THEM

Virginia's white woman nominee has a 12 point advantage over her opponent in the polls.

R59 look who she’s running against…

Why not blame the voters? They're the ones voting. If they're too stupid to not see through obvious Republican bullshit, maybe it is their fault.

Mikie Sherrill is giving me (here in her northern NJ area) total John Kerry 2004 dynamics. She thinks she can run on her admirable military bio while the other side actually fights harder and plays it to win.

She needs to do what they do — attack hard and throw him on the defensive. [bold]”Why does MAGA Jack Ciatarelli want to destroy public education?”[/bold] That kind of thing. Probably too late at this point. It’s sad to sit and watch this likely John Kerry outcome unfolding locally here, right now.

A good point: as a general rule NJ has excellent public schools, especially in the better-off north Jersey areas. The areas with lots of people who vote on a regular basis.

She needs to run ads “you want an Oklahoma education—this is what it will look like for your kids.”

Don’t blame me. I voted for Fulop.

God, wow, Martha Coakley. There's someone no one has thought about in years. She was a uniquely bad candidate.

[quote]Jack is a Boomer, dear.

She is Gen X, dear.

[quote]”Why does MAGA Jack Ciatarelli want to destroy public education?”

Going over the top can sometimes miss the mark. We saw that in 2024 when all the "Trump is literally Hitler" statements became quite counter-productive. It may be better to focus on one or more of the particular policies espoused. Yes. voters will respond the way you want with some over-the-top statements, but it's possible to go too far.

R67 I agree by temperament and by how I wish things were… but this race is slipping away from Sherrill while she campaigns “in a reasonable manner.”

NJ has no local tv. NYC stations cover all of the area that is relevant to NJ elections.

As far as tv ads go—take that for what it is worth—she’s sucking wind. She needs to hit early, harder and often. Prices. Education.

She’s a moderate, but the opposition keeps forcing her to defend her party’s most ‘woke’ policies and positions, which is exhausting. On top of that, the other side conflates her own views with the party’s extreme wing, and that’s how she’s ended up in this position. Having Mamdani run in NYC is not a plus for her either.

R3 I want to believe it but it just seems like too much money involved in the other side for them to just accept defeat that way. It’s just too much money involved on the democratic side like the Republican side. I just don’t believe either side can steal that way more than once. The money makes these things so closely scrutinized. Fun conspiracy though.

r66 he was born in 1961 so he's a Boomer.

The loose definitions are Boomer = born postwar ‘46 to ‘64, and Gen X follows that, born ‘65 to ‘79.

But anyone within a couple years of the boundary can say they are kind of between the two, and that’s accurate.

He's still a Boomer.

Jack must have been a hot Italian stud muffin in the 80s and 90s

[quote]X follows that, born ‘65 to ‘79.

Gen X is 1965-1981

Jack is hot but a pos.

R77 I didn’t realize he was living with that. Did he get it from transfusion?

Latest Fox News poll has her up by 7 points, so Emerson may have been an outlier.

Emerson is more accurate.

I predict this is one of those situations where the Democratic candidate has only a single digit lead in a poll and people panic and the Republicans get their hopes up, but then the Democrat wins handily. We've seen this play out before.

R81 so have we.

I hope she’s up by a lot. It helps that Trump is pulling crazy shit everyday. He just cut billions from the Hudson Tunnel. I still think this one could go either way.

If she loses, hope for the midterms is lost

Why, r84? NJ was lost a long time ago. This was pretty much expected especially with such a terrible candidate. I wouldn’t say it’s indicative of the entire election although Democrats are really out to lunch right now. They’re like a nonentity.

[bold] "Allow BOYS in GIRLS sports and lockerrooms!!"-------Miki Sherrill [/bold]

This is how you say you want to LOSE without saying you want to lose. She learned nothing in November.

A couple of last minute stops by Emperor Trumptard and it will swing in the GOPs favor. That's how Moreno won in Ohio.

The trans shit is continuing to haunt the Left.

They need to ban ALL bottoms- then my choice of tops would sky rocket !

Democrats must love losing. That’s the only explanation. I hope she says her position has changed but she’ll probably just double down.

Look at the rhetoric the candidates have to put up with------------------>>

“Elected officials have a responsibility not only to legislate but to protect and lead those most vulnerable,” said Brielle Winslow-Majette (she/her), Deputy Director of Garden State Equality.

“Showing up for the LGBTQ+ community is not optional; in a world that is debating our identities, we need strong allies who will ensure that the New Jersey state laws are protected from the rollback of LGBTQ rights across the country,” Winslow-Majette said. “We value leaders who listen, grow, and show up when it matters most. We need an elected official who is present, vocal, and ready to partner with us as we continue the fight for lived equality for all.”

Democratic Candidate Sherrill (telling PARENTS how their children should be raised) = “I believe that parents have the right to oversee their children’s education,” Sherrill said. “[bold] I would push an LGBTQ education into our schools. Parents have a right to opt out of a lot of things, but this is not an area where they should be opting out, because this is an area of understanding the background of people throughout our nation. [/bold] And right now we see, for example, at the Naval Academy, an erasure of history.”

(((((((sigh)))))).............TRUMP has weighed into this election too. MAGA has gotten their marching orders to vote. A tie isn't good news for her. She also has a "nepo" scandal and "military records" brouhaha. What a mess.

Things are not the same. This current situation is extraordinary in the fact that it's something we've never experienced before. Yes, this is a dictatorship. Yes, these assholes are nazi wannabes. NO! Those folks who are solidly DEMOCRAT by the FACT of their own working class lives cannot be counted on to vote responsibly in relation to the shit storm we're now experincing. YES! YES!! YES!!! They will vote republican AGAIN!

[quote] Yes, this is a dictatorship.

Posted in a thread about an active, free election. This is DL.

New Jersey has quite a large Italian population

[quote]I hope she says her position has changed

There is no coming back from her statement. The same thing happened with Kamala. The tranny ad did the most damage to her campaign.

New Jersey hates Democrats. Talk to those people and they are seriously conservative. Taxes are the main reason. The GOP has to have a really fucked up candidate not to win there.

[quote]“Elected officials have a responsibility not only to legislate but to protect and lead those most vulnerable,” said Brielle Winslow-Majette (she/her)

She/her?? Jesus Christ, these people are idiots.

[Quote] I would push an LGBTQ education into our schools. Parents have a right to opt out of a lot of things, but this is not an area where they should be opting out

What an unfortunate choice of words that she will 'push' an LBGTQ education into public schools and exactly what is an LBGTQ education? Is it a separate course and is there a course description.

Frankly I've never heard parents or educators concerned about their children getting an LBGT education or for that matter tampons in the boy's room.

It’s so funny that Italians are so rightwing, trying to fit in with the wasp rightwingers.

Sorry paisan, you can get Trump’s face tattooed on your forehead but the white Protestants will never see you as anything but a greaseball.

Interactive polls are far from accurate.

R100 has no idea what century this is. Honey, the majority of the country identifies as conservative. Wake the fuck up.

r100 are you posting from the 1950s? Your opinions are antiquated.

A major part of the problem for Democrats is their association with issues like trans politics, DEI, “defund the police,” and the perception that they prioritize undocumented migrants over working-class voters. Yet Democratic leaders show no signs of changing course. They’ll likely win in the midterms, gain some power, and then lose it again as the political pendulum swings back and forth between extremes—WOKE on one side and MAGA on the other. The real question is how those in the middle of both parties can regain control—or perhaps break away to form a new political party. What’s needed is a strong, catchy name that embodies the voice of moderates across the spectrum. MAMA: Make America Moderate Again

I don’t see them winning the midterms. They’re completely invisible.

R97 see r36. Then crawl back in your hole.

Eat my hole, r106.

[quote]New Jersey hates Democrats.

You obviously know nothing about New Jersey.

[quote]New Jersey has quite a large Italian population

It has an even larger Irish population

I've been told it also has a large colored population.

Yes, I do. Go look at the history of their governors and get back to us.

NJ has had two Republican Governors over the past 35 years, neither of whom was elected with a Republican in the White House.

If you are running for office and you think boys should be in girls sports or restrooms, I will not vote for you. You WANT to lose. And that's fine, it's your right. but how selfish are you to ask me to waste my time on election day? A tie means you are losing. Trump gets out his voters. Sherrills voters are rolling their eyes and don't want a boy taking a medal away from their daughters---and some of them won't be showing up on election day either.