AtlasIntel poll

LOL

The only thing that’s gonna really dent Trump’s support would be the economy crashing. As much as it would cause pain, it’s the only pathway to saving our constitutional republic..

If they're so accurate, why are they consistently an outlier? These are approval ratings from today:

Econ/YouGov 39%-57% (-18) down 5 pts from last week Civiqs 41%-55% (-14) down 2 pts from last week AP-NORC 39%-60%(-21) down 13 pts from last month

At least where it came to the Blue Wall states, they were the most accurate polls of the last three presidential campaigns. As a Michigan resident, I was supremely confident of a Biden wipeout in ‘20 because it seemed all the pre-election polls had Biden with a comfortable lead in my state. The same was true for Pennsylvania & Wisconsin. Biden did win the three states, but all by narrow margins. The AtlasIntel polls were outliers in each of the three states, giving Biden leads that pretty much mirrored the actual, closer results.

In the face of the so-called experts who told us the other polling organizations had made corrections & were now better equipped to gauge Trump’s real electoral support, I was skeptical. So while other polls gave us reason to be optimistic, it was their polling in ‘24, showing Trump consistently ahead in the Blue Wall states, that persuaded me that Trump was likely to win, a belief I did not have in his first two elections. Hence, I’m a believer.

^But ... although I think their polls are a better gauge of the overall electorate, we know that the participation level of wide swaths of Trump voters is not the same in midterms, when Trump is not on the ballot.