Who will win Best Actress?

Demi Moore, probably. I still have my doubts, but right now I think she’s out in front.

I do think Demi has a good chance. It would be wild if it was Pam Anderson.

Demi. I think Pam will be nominated.

Angelina

Demi for sure.

It better be me or I'll cut the bitch.

I think Demi is the frontrunner.

Now.

That could change.

The whole Pam Anderson thing is going to be insufferable for the next few weeks until Oscar voters just end up handing that fifth slot in Best Actress to someone like Marianne Jean-Baptiste or Fernanda Torres.

Demi.

I'm beginning to suspect the tranny may get snubbed and Pam gets in. I could see..

Pam Anderson Cunthia Erivo Mikey Madison Demi Moore Fernanda Torres

The Best Actress race is kinda fun this year because there are so many wild cards. There's a decent 8 or 9 names up for attention this year while Best Actor is pretty much sewed up with 5 or 6 in the running.

I think these 4 are probably definitely in:

Demi

Mikey Madison

Karla Sofia Gascon

Cynthia Erivo

Then, there's a lot of names fighting for that fifth spot.

Fernanda Torres

Marianne Jean-Baptiste

Angelina Jolie

Nicole Kidman

Pam Anderson

It'll be interesting to see if the fire fucks things up. If you see both Fernanda Torres and Marianne Jean-Baptiste get nominations that could signify that foreign voting AMPAS members turned out in big numbers while LA based ones maybe couldn't be bothered since they're all running for their lives.

I've always liked Marianne Jean-Baptiste, but it looks like she's near the bottom of the list now.

Whooooo cares?

People are lying in the street. Trying to find somebody to meet, who'll get them to the top and get them there fast. Trying to get that dirty cash. It doesn't matter--woman or man. Anyone who'll give them a hand. Cash money, that green...cold cash, that's the scene

Demi Moore.

R12, I saw ‘Hard Truths’ yesterday and the fact that Marianne Jean-Baptiste faces such an uphill battle for an Oscar nomination and that Michele Austin never seriously entered the Best Supporting Actress conversation shows what a joke the televised awards season is. MJB won all the major American critics prizes, but being less famous than most of her competition and having a weaker studio behind her (Bleecker Street) means it’s quite likely she will be overlooked. Perhaps even by BAFTA, who often prefers to recognize Hollywood films and performances over homegrown talents.

Right now I have Demi Moore winning with Mikey Madison as the alternate.

Demi Moore.

I think Pam Anderson will get in and I think Jolie and Kidman are out at this point, but r11 has put things very well. That 5th spot could be one of several actresses weve seen around this year. I’m hoping for MJB, though Torres seems more likely.

I will admit I'm rooting for Pam Anderson to get in.

I’m rooting for Demi. She may not have the kind of resume Oscar voters are looking for but her film was a huge hit, she has a narrative, and her performance is really good. It would be a miracle if Pam and Marianne Jean Baptiste both get in and I hope they do. Tranny didn’t do a damn awards worthy thing and Mikey is fine but not Oscar worthy. Angie was well underwhelming.

Praying that Cynthia gets snubbed a la Margot Robbie.

Demi is a lock for a nomination but genre bias and the fact that she’s absent for half of the film hurt her chances at a win.

Anyone but Waxface Kidman

It’s DEMI bay-bee !!

Demi

Her nomination is a lock, and her GG speech gave the voters a reason to root for her.

[quote] Praying that Cynthia gets snubbed a la Margot Robbie.

I'm hoping for this as well. In my fantasy mind, the people voting in nomination stage decide that it's ok for Cynthia to be snubbed this time around because she had an Oscar nod for Harriet in 2019. But, I know that probably won't happen.

Demi. If not, then Vivian.

I know that the quality of the acting is almost beside the point for an Oscar, but once all the emotion is stripped away, the reviewers who saw The Last Showgirl and were willing to be objective have all said Pammy just didn’t have the acting chops to pull it off.

Pam seems to be peaking at the right time, she got a rave from the NYT and Aaron Sorkin wrote an OP ED in one of the trades praising her performance. I don’t know it it will translate to a nomination but with Jamie Lee Curtis in the mix for a nomination the movie will be considered.

Everyone seems to want her to get a nom, but if she won, she’d immediately go into the category of “people who least deserved the Oscar.”

So I think it’d almost better for her if she’s nominated but doesn’t win.

Demi and Angelina are my choices.

Just a reminder that the reviews for The Last Showgirl aren't that good, and are barely above a few movies that are considered disappointments this year. Even her performance hasn't received overwhelmingly positive reviews. I know people are having fun with the idea that the trashy Baywatch actress best known for a porn tape might be an Oscar nominee, but this is one of those things that's probably going to look really silly in retrospect.

There's almost no chance that Marianne wins, but I wish she could. She's done great work for decades and deserves some big paychecks and first look at Hollywood's best scripts.

Brenda Blethyn got all the raves for the movie where Marianne played her daughter, but I thought Marianne stole the movie out from under her.

Besides, "Hard Truths" sounds like John Waters made a Mike Leigh film. Can't wait.

The actor getting buzz for good work in The Last Showgirl is little Kiernan Shipka, who played Don’s daughter in Mad Men. She’s grown into a talented performer.

She’s also a trouper. The focus is on Pam getting the nod and she’s been talking Pam up to the heavens on the press tour.

R31, Jean-Baptiste is great in Hard Truths. She plays the most unpleasant person you could imagine, and the worse she got, the more the audience ate it up. She's both funny and heartbreaking. Michele Austin is also excellent in it, and I'd give nominations to both, if I could.

I don't think Karla Sofia Gascon will be a finalist. I think there are better performances in foreign films if it goes to a foreign film actress--it would be more likely to go to Baptiste or to Torres.

I would agree Demi Moore is in front right now, in large part thanks to her sweet and humble speech at the GGs (pay attention, Lily Gladstone). I think Mikey Madison is still a shoo-in, although "Anora" seems to be losing buzz.

I see Erivo nominated because it truly is a fine performance (as annoying and pompous she is as a human being), and Torres because people like her and are still sorry her mother did not win years ago for her great performance in "Central Station."

In another year Anderson would likely be up, but I think Moore is going to nab the "we feel sorry for you because you're aging and were treated for years in the Industry like a bimbo" spot.

My guess the five finalists will be:

Moore, Madison, Erivo, Torres, Kidman. Kidman will likely fill the "we need someone glamorous to show we still care about still-regularly working Hollywood stars who are regularly up for Oscars" spot, but she has no shot at the actual Oscar.

Mikey is out- that film lost all traction- She will get nominated..

Angelina in Maria never had any traction- she is out in terms of winning- I hate every one of that dude's films too- His one note approach to his films is boring AF-

Cynthia, despite being in a massive hit, has no momentum- and is utterly off putting.

Marianne Jean Baptiste may sneak in, but will never win-

I have heard that Fernanda Torres is absolutely OUTSTANDING IN HER FILM-- she is giving me vibes like that Marianne(sp? Too lazy to look) Cotilliard win from years ago..

After watching The Substance again, Demi is even better the 2nd time-- There is a lot more there than just the mirror scene- the entire performance has pathos, drama, and Demi excels at the comedy too! (The cooking scene is funny as hell) and this film has traction and momentum. I will watch this one over and over...

Pamela-- I doubt that she even gets nominated although she deserves it.. The film is very slight and pretty flawed-- It would be amazing for her to get in.

Nicole- Is fucking attending the opening of any envelope from here to Timbuktu to get nominated. She has not a chance in hell of winning, but I would not. count her out. I would love for her to replace Angelina-

I think Demi earned this one- I just loved her in this.

R34- I basically could have written your post if I was more eloquent-- 100 percent agree with every word- including your nominations-

I think Nicole and Gascon are the ones with the lowest chances of nominations and only one will get in-

Sorry I Was R35 and R36

R31, Marianne Jean-Baptiste is indeed wonderful in Secrets and Lies; I thought she and Brenda Blethyn were more deserving of Oscars that year than the eventual winners, Juliette Binoche and Frances McDormand (21 years later, McDormand would block another under-appreciated English character actress and Mike Leigh muse, Sally Hawkins, from her best shot at an Oscar).

I think Gascon is quite safe for a nomination. Emilia Perez is a frontrunner for Best Picture, and Oscar voters are lazy; half of the battle is getting your film widely seen (Selena Gomez could coattail in supporting for this reason), and Gascon's role is dramatic and baity.

Andrea Riseborough's nomination a few years back shows that the acting branch has the power to recognize deserving performers outside of the same 8-10 the pundits and press push all year long, but seldom utilize it, which is disappointing.

[quote] After watching The Substance again, Demi is even better the 2nd time-- There is a lot more there than just the mirror scene- the entire performance has pathos, drama, and Demi excels at the comedy too! (The cooking scene is funny as hell) and this film has traction and momentum. I will watch this one over and over...

I watched it a 2nd time and was more impressed by Margaret Qualley's performance this time. Demi is fine but I don't necessarily see her performance as Oscar caliber. I think people just want her to win the award. I also see it as more horror than comedy. It would be remarkable for her to win an Oscar before Michelle Pfeiffer, Annette Being or Sharon Stone.

R36, I can't see Gascon missing with how well Emilia Perez is doing in the awards race this year. She won't win, but I think she's as safe as Moore and Madison.

I still wouldn't count out Nicole, though. She has the reviews, and Babygirl is actually making money. It's outgrossed The Substance and Anora domestically, and will probably end up earning about as much as Conclave.

[quote] [R36], I can't see Gascon missing with how well Emilia Perez is doing in the awards race this year.

She was missing from the GG nominations, and they have ten of those rather than five.

Gascon was nominated, R41. She was in the Musical/Comedy category against Moore, Madison, Erivo, Amy Adams and Zendaya.

Qualley has the issue of being very attractive, so people tend not to take her seriously as a performer. She has limited range, but within that range she does very good work.

the non-white one if there is one nominated.

“Wicked” was entertaining but I don’t view it as Oscar worthy, except perhaps in technical categories. This isn’t genre bias, I hate it when only artsy-fartsy dramas get recognized, but “Wicked” is pretty lightweight at its core. The performances were good but don’t scream “award worthy”. I think it’s telling it lost most of its GG noms.

I can't wait to see Hard Truths. The trailer makes Marianne Jean-Baptiste look like the second coming of Peggy Gravel in Desperate Living — I howled when she was yelling at the supermarket checker to fix herself up: "You're 'andling PEOPLE'S FOOD!"

Last showgirl averages 66 on metacritic higher than Lee or Maria which are the Kate Winslet and Angelina Jolie Oscar vehicles. The movie gets knocked for being a big uneven and dragging in places but the performances have all been praised. I don’t know if she will be nominated or win, but she’s in the mix as is JLC.

Moores film and performance are being universally praised. It’s a female directed body horror movie/dark comedy that takes on the pressures of aging and growing old in the entertainment industry.

I know there’s a desire to award an “ingenue” but Brie Larson and Alicia Vikander haven’t lived up to their hype, and Jennifer Lawrence seems to be slowing down and focusing on raising a family.

I think Moore, Madison and Erivo get in and the other 2 spots are open between Baptiste, Gascon, Anderson, Kidman, Jolie and Torres.

R39- I agree 100% I actually am in the middle of watching The Substance for the 3rd time-- and Margaret in awesome... She completely deserves a nomination as well. This one will be up there with my Top 25 films.

I am going to try not to watch this again for a year and see how I feel!

Melania

Are you lost, dearheart?

I think Fernanda Torres is definite for the fifth slot, and I think she's the biggest competition for Demi Moore as far as actually winning.

I doubt Jolie gets in. it's not a good movie and it's not been well received.

And she’s toxic.

R52, this will be a good test of Jolie's industry standing. An actor can get nominated for a middling performance in a poorly received film as long as they are popular enough.

If Bruce Willis dies before voting ends, there's no way Demi loses.

Cunt Cynthia Erivo receiving a nomination for her role as that green-pasted witch would be a travesty in and of itself. I am praying they snub her.

I saw "The Substance" when it was released in the fall and thought it was a fantastic horror film. This weekend, I went and watched "The Last Showgirl", which I liked but didn't love. Pam was very good in it, though her performance certainly wasn't better than Demi's.

I believe Nicole Kidman is getting in, her movie is making $$$. My 2 neighbors are members of the Academy and told me that fact. Demi Moore is definitely getting nominated, her GG speech put her as frontrunner for the AA. I always go with what my neighbors tell me; they're 3 voting members in my neighborhood& they know their stuff.

R39 and me, damn it!!

Making $$$? Babygirl has only made $24M and if she does get in she will be Babygirl’s sole nomination. The whole movie is basically a vanity project designed to get Kidman Oscar recognition and recognition that she’s still sexy and works her ass off for a woman in her late 50s.

R8 I agree, it’s sucks. Reminds me of Naomi Watts winning all the critics awards for Muholland Drive but she wasn’t even considered for an Oscar nom. Shows how they can get it so wrong as it’s often cited as one of the greatest performances of all time 25 years on.

[quote] I believe Nicole Kidman is getting in, her movie is making $$$. My 2 neighbors are members of the Academy and told me that fact.

So far they're wrong, whether they're members of the Academy or not.

"Babygirl" cost $20 million to make, and movies have to make at least twice their cost to break even. Screen rant has claimed this film will need to make $50 million to break even.

So far it has made $24 million according to wikipedia.

Emilia Perez was a hot mess of a film and the fact that it got so many Golden Globe nominations is fucking embarrassing. I would love to see the Academy give it nothing, but that will never happen.

If Demi wins, it's a "thanks for your career" type Oscar. She's fine in "The Substance," but it's a horror film and any actress could have played her part. I almost wonder if the attention she is getting is due to the fact that she shows her tits, and they think that is brave. Margaret Qualley carries the film along with Demi, and I don't see how Demi was any better than her during the long stretches when Demi is passed out. The film, especially at the end, is stupid and gory.

Who should win is Mikey Madison, who was great in "Anora." She also showed her tits, so she'll get those voters who like tits.

Maybe Cynthia Erivo is a safer choice that those two, since Wicked was a huge hit and they rarely give black women the best actress Oscar. So, unclear. It definitely feels like a toss-up year.

R63 ‘rarely give black women the best actress Oscar.’ Babe they’ve only awarded it to a black woman ONCE!

R64: Why do you think I’m going supporting?

It's going to be between Demi and Cynthia and Cynthia will win, deservedly.

My best:

Demi Moore

Gascon

Madison

MJB

Torres

I just don't see the broader academy taking Wicked or Pam seriously.

Sorry, I meant my guess.

I don't think they will give any major awards to Wicked knowing there is a sequel next year. They will probably win reserve them then, if at all. As for BA, I can see MJB getting a late surge and may squeak by Demi. A BAFTA win will push MJB to the forefront.

[quote] A BAFTA win will push MJB to the forefront.

Traditionally it's not been the case that a BAFTA win somehow pushes a dark horse to the front of the Oscar race.

Who you calling a dark horse?

Honestly I'd friggin love it if Pamela got nominated.

I'll wait to see the noms.

Demi is 100% getting nominated.

I’m rooting for Mary J Blige.

I would love it if Cynthia Erivo was snubbed from nominations and Pamela Anderson got in. I would love to see Erivo's insufferable fans have meltdowns over an actress from a trashy 90s tv show get an Oscar nomination. But, I know the likely scenario is Erivo gets a nod and Pam is snubbed.

A bit OT, but I was annoyed years back when the Academy invited Kate McKinnon and Leslie Jones to be members. One Oscar dream I have is that a former SNL cast member who isn't Kate or Leslie and also isn't a member of the Academy gets an Oscar nomination and wins. It would be fitting because both McKinnon and Jones are smug bitches who need to be brought down a few pegs.

I think the only shoo in for Wicked is Grande. I could see Erivo being left out.

I think the nominees will be

Angelina

Cynthia

Karla Sofia

Marianne

Nicole

Winner: Marianne.

The one with the penis will win Best Actress.

Timmy will get nominated for best actress, much to everyone's embarrassment.

Fernanda embracing the nepo baby image will not do her any favors. No one wants to hear about your privileged upbringing when there's a catastrophe going on right now. Even Paltrow wouldn't be so tone deaf. If it was a white actress saying that, it would be considered disqualifying.

I hope Pamela Anderson gets in because she seems very down to earth.

R81 I'm also hoping Pamela Anderson gets in and Fernanda is snubbed.

Karla Sofia would be the Academy pandering to the trannies because her acting was nothing you don't catch on Lifetime any day of the week.

I think it’s unprofessional and silly to keep postponing the nominations. All they have to do is post them on their website and send out a press release. Perhaps now with this extra time Torres can get in. Who knows maybe even Pam can get in.

[60] So true. Watts was so amazing in the role. She was completely robbed.

[63] Mikey Madison was not that great. I wasn’t wowed one bit. Many more actresses who played hooker/strippers for better.

I would love to see Demi or Pam win it. They killed in both of their performances,

I rewatched Fargo the other night. Great dark comedy film but I still think that McDormand’s performance was good but not Oscar worthy. I felt the cast of Drip Dead Gorgeous did better.

Emily Watson should have won for Breaking The Waves instead.

Fargo was probably the only time Frances played a non-crabby woman.

The trend of getting in everywhere except the Oscars seems to affect women more than men. Praying Cynthia gets snubbed.

Frances McDormand deserved it for Fargo, you addled bitches. Stop the counterfactual bullshit.

Give it to Demi. People have liked her for a long time and she's a good actress.

R90 Madonna, Diane Keaton and Debbie Reynolds’s gave much more multifaceted performances that year.

You must be one of the Coen brothers

The Substance isn't the best performance Demi's ever given but still it would be a worthy, fun, and memorable win.

Cynthia Erivo sounds like a nasty person. I hope they don't play the race card and award her just because no black woman has won except Halle Berry.

Plus they can always award Cynthia next year. I would assume part 2 would be more dramatic.

If they want to play the race card Marianne is right there.

R93 She deserved it for Mortal Thoughts. Payback I say!

She was great in Mortal Thoughts, R96. Demi nailed the role (and prime Rob Lowe) in About Last Night, too.

Demi for the Oscar! Are you listening Academy? Do it right.

R91 Demi is not a good actress.

Marianne Jean Baptiste, I loved her in "Secrets and Lies.' That was a very good movie.

Frances should have won for Almost Famous and Nomadland.

I still feel Sally Hawkins should have won for The Shape Of Water ahead of Frances for Three Billboards.

Hi Cynthia at R99.

R102 Ok, what's Demi been good in? The Substance scene where she smears her makeup was her big chance. I didn't feel shit except that her real life mouth has been butchered, surgically altered in a disturbing way like a Hellraiser creature. Then she's looking under 100lbs again. Where is Ashton, smoking synthetic opioid? Demi is whack. I don't want her to win, my god.

Who is Demi living with? Gay?

[quote] Demi for the Oscar! Are you listening Academy?

It can't hear you!

I think Demi will win because of the fires. There is a Hollywood nostalgia taking place right now.

R83, and yet people here pretend Demi and Pamela Anderson are acting geniuses. 🙄

And Cynthia Erivo is a cunt while a woman who married Kid Rock the homophobe is a candidate for sainthood, apparently

If a black person wins an award, that's "playing the race card"...but it would totally be fine to award Demi Moore or Pam Anderson, both of whom you laughed at and said were lousy as recently as a couple years ago

A young Tachina Arnold is in an episode based on Tawana Brawley. No she’s not the rape “victim”. It’s so fun seeing her cute and young with that strong New York accent.

Oops wrong thread.

So, Cynthia Erivo should win because she's black? Is that your reasoning, Klan Granny Troll?

What does Demi have to do with the fires?

It would be so cool if Marianne Jean-Babtiste got Cynthia Ervio's spot. Then Erivo couldn't cry racism.

R113- Would love for Marianne to get in and take Cynthia's spot! And I would love for Pam Anderson to take Nicole, Angelina's, Cynthia's and fuck even Mike Madisons! I am especially bored of Gascon as well.

I am a life long hater of musicals-

That shit ain’t happening. Its total gross is now at 700 mil and a nearly perfect score on rotten tomatoes. I do think the Academy might give it to her for part 2 but she is definitely getting nominated.

[quote] What does Demi have to do with the fires?

She has a thick bush. Burning bush = fire ?

If the NYFCC awards had taken place just a week earlier, I think Marianne Jean-Baptiste would have been nominated for a Golden Globe (likely taking Tilda Swinton's spot) and would be in a much better position for an Oscar nod. Hers is easily the best performance in contention.

Having now seen 'The Substance', I think Demi's momentum is mainly due to narrative and goodwill. She's good, but there just isn't much to work with; her character is more of an idea than a fleshed out person, and half of her film's running time is devoted to another actress. Margaret Qualley almost felt more like the lead to me.

I’d take Cyntina and Marianne over Karla Sophia Petrillo. I think it would be only the second time 2 black actresses were nominated for best actress and they would both be among the very few black actresses who have been nominated for more than one Oscar.

Anderson

Moore

Ervio

Jean-Baptiste

Torres

This would be a great lineup.

Demi is a co-lead but at least she’s not going for a cheap win and campaigning in supporting. Yes she is hurt by screen time and and the fact that she’s alone and has no dialogue in the vast majority of her scenes. Ultimately, I think the huge success of the film and the fact that she transforms into different characters (Requiem, Gollum, Elissasue) will be enough to carry her over the finish line.

R119- For win or nomination? I want her to win. I truly think that she earned it.

For me, this (The Substance) was the best film I have seen in the last few years next to A Real Pain and The Holdovers.

R111 flunked Logic.

Timmy and Demi predicted winners by Variety. Mmkay.

Two women can’t win best actress. Adrien for the men.

Barbra and Katharine disagree R124

The New York Times Projectionist predicts...

After delivering a knockout speech at the Golden Globes, Demi Moore feels like this category’s new front-runner for her role in “The Substance.” She’ll face competition from two actresses who hail from stronger best picture contenders: Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), the latter of whom could become the first openly trans actress to earn an Oscar nomination.

Few contenders close on as strong a note as the “Wicked” star Cynthia Erivo, who gets to belt “Defying Gravity” in her final scene, though it does feel like her character is only getting started and voters may be tempted to wait until the sequel for her just reward. Still, I think Erivo is safe, and this season’s real blood bath will be for the fifth best actress slot.

Former winners Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Kate Winslet (“Lee”) have been stumping for months, but their films have no momentum. Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”) is peaking at the right time with her recent SAG nomination, but the academy can be awfully snobby sometimes and may prove immune to the “Baywatch” actress’s bid for respectability. (Remember when Jennifer Lopez was denied a nomination for her career-best turn in “Hustlers”?)

With that in mind, the final slot may come down to the Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres, who just won a surprise Golden Globe for “I’m Still Here”; the perennial Oscar favorite Nicole Kidman, so memorably exposed in “Babygirl”; and Marianne Jean-Baptiste, whose tetchy performance in “Hard Truths” has won all the major critics’ prizes. Since BAFTA went with Jean-Baptiste, that’s who I’m picking. Still, this race will be close.

The fuss over Demi Moore is truly absurd. Her performance in The Substance was actually quite passive, with most of the heavy lifting having been accomplished by the stunt people, the cosmeticians and the special effects crew. Yes, she delivered a heartwarming speech at the Golden Globes, but the extent of the preparation that went into it suggested to me that she had been made aware in advance that the trophy would be hers (and such things have happened quite regularly with the Hollywood Foreign Pests, or whatever they're calling themselves these days). It would be a real shame if her you-go-girl moment resulted in a nomination that should go to either Ms. Kidman or Ms. Jean-Baptiste (or, for that matter, to Saoirse Ronan for The Outrun).

Come on let’s go:

Marianne Jean Baptiste gets in

Tranny and Wicked both get snubbed.

🙏 🙏 🙏

R127: She did nothing Oscar worthy and got outacted by Margaret Qualley.

While I appreciate Demi Moore, and the messages upholding The Substance, all three of us watching it ultimately thought it was awful. Gratuitous gore upon gore. Ugh.

Best Supporting Actress Monica Barbaro — A Complete Unknown Ariana Grande-Butera — Wicked Felicity Jones — The Brutalist Isabella Rossellini — Conclave Zoe Saldaña — Emilia Pérez

YEAH!! I'm rooting for Isabella Rossellini for Conclave.

All the entertainment reporters??? can mention her FAMOUS mother& father. Gives them something different to talk about the brings back memories and a real scandal.

R127, I agree with you about Demi and feel gaslight by all the praise for her performance, with some critics bizarrely comparing it to Isabelle Adjani's career-defining role in 'Possession.'

She has very few scenes in which she is not consumed by prosthetics, nor does she have much dialogue. I understand she has an appealing narrative and that it's considered brave for her to take on a role like this, but I still think she's vulnerable to an upset from an actress with a more conventionally actorly role.

[quote]nor does she have much dialogue.

Holly Hunter won Best Actress playing a character who didn’t speak. Dialogue is irrelevant.

This should be a poll.

R134, Holly Hunter also wasn’t offscreen for half of her movie and covered in prosthetics for much of the other half.

[quote]Holly Hunter also wasn’t offscreen for half of her movie and covered in prosthetics for much of the other half.

Okay.

Demi by a nose...

I wish Pamela Anderson would have gotten nominated instead of that loudmouth nepo twat Fernanda Torres.

I'm rooting for Demi Moore. She grew up in shitty circumstances and has some understanding of struggle unlike that twat Fernanda.

[quote] Holly Hunter won Best Actress playing a character who didn’t speak. Dialogue is irrelevant.

" Mute schmute, she didn’t have to memorize a single word. All she had to do was show up, braid her hair, and fartic."

I am such a dolt- I knew nothing about the I'm Still Here chick other than that her performance is supposedly next level good-

I learned here that she is Montenegro's daughter (Fernanda should have won for Central Station- ironically- over nepo steam my nasty pussy Gwyneth-

Fuck her , I want Demi to take this,

The Substance haters here surprise me- I feel Demi's performance was exceedingly great. And the film was a wild and fun ride- I loved every second.

I haven’t seen the Last Showgirl but I struggle to believe that Pamela Anderson out acted any of the five nominees or any of the next 15 runner ups including Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman or Zendaya.

People here and elsewhere are acting like she was secretly a Liv Ullman level talent all along. Get real.

I’m happy for her to be experiencing success in her career but you can hardly call this a comeback since she never displayed a drop of talent from the beginning.

She has very good pr doing a hell of a good job rebranding her as some kind of intellectual but I’m not 100% buying it. she benefits from very low expectations. I think a lot of younger edgier fimmalers are drawn to her because she’s a shot of nostalgia from their 90s youth but shes way outside her lane campaigning for an Oscar.

I am "VERY, VERY HAPPY" that the JEZEBEL-HARLOT, WHORE OF BABYLON HEROIN LOVING NO TITS CRAZY AS FUCK Angelina Jolie did not get nominated for "Maria".

Pam was so so in Chicago on Broadway but the buzz was so great you would have thought she was the next Chita Rivera

Janet Gaynor

Demi Moore is the current leader, but these things can change now that the noms are really out there. I'm wondering if folks start watching I'M STILL HERE and Torres gets a shot.

It's Demi - the film was a huge hit, the comeback narrative, she's naked in it, it's a sexy role, she uglifies herself at the end, she transforms into different characters, and out of all five nominees she's the most well known.

R146: It's only five weeks away. Demi can sustain the momentum. The Academy does care about optics and putting on a good show. Nobody knows who Torres is. They'll want to give best actress to a well known star and a star with a lot of passion.

[quote] Demi Moore is the current leader, but these things can change now that the noms are really out there. I'm wondering if folks start watching I'M STILL HERE and Torres gets a shot.

I hope Torres doesn't win. The stupid nepo baby cunt made the mistake of talking about how great it was to be a nepo baby in Brazil while the LA fires and other major was going on in the US.

I'm also enjoying schaudenfreude over the ghastly Angelina not getting a nom....Also Jamie Lee Curtis.

It would help fernando if she were browner.

Spanish and Portuguese speaking people aren't necessarily "People of Color". Many of them are annoyed or maybe just bemused if you suggest they are.

[quote]I think a lot of younger edgier fimmalers are drawn to her because she’s a shot of nostalgia from their 90s youth

Pam was hurt by the fact that Demi was in this race, who brings a lot more 90s nostalgia to the table than Pam does.

I think Pam is great but....she still has that awful babydoll voice.

She gets praise for just being ok because people expect her to totally suck as an actor because of her looks and background. So when she's actually decent, she gets raves when that same performance from Laura Linney would get yawns.

Demi will win.

FCS, Pamela Anderson got a SAG nomination. That's enough!

[quote]It would help fernando if she were browner.

Lipstick alley has already pulled up receipts of Fernanda in blackface playing a character who refers to herself as a "monkey"

I think it's safe to say she's out of the running.

Somebody has made a whole Twitter page of it.

Gen X has arrived in power in Hollywood, and I fully expect Demi to win.

Watch for other Brat Packers like Judd Nelson, Molly Ringwald, etc. to start getting character parts and supporting noms.

In “Hard Truths,” Marianne Jean-Baptiste plays Pansy, an unhappy woman with a never-ending list of grievances. Well, you can add one more to the list: Even though Jean-Baptiste took top honors from critics groups in New York and Los Angeles as well as the National Society of Film Critics, the academy paid her dust. What gives? Though I predicted that Jean-Baptiste would just barely make the best actress lineup, it was hard to shake the number of male voters who simply didn’t like the character. When a woman suffers nobly, it’s Oscar bait. But when she makes others suffer, not so much.

Narrative is everything for the Oscar. Plus a huge budget for advertising the movie and its stars. Yet the major critics' bodies can't be all wrong when they cited Marianne Jean-Baptiste's phenomenal work this year for Hard Truths. She deserves to be nominated if only to remind ourselves that this is still about the craft of acting. If she misses the nomination, she might score a bigger victory by having her performance discussed in cinephile circles and academic film classes as an exemplar of brilliant acting, long before the sheen and luster faded to those who won the award. Her performance for the ages already achieved an afterlife beyond this Oscar season.

Who will win the precursors (BAFTA and SAG)

The Academy usually picks one of those winners.

I actually think Demi's best scene isn't the mirror scene but when she has second thoughts about terminating Sue.

The category is sure short on recognizability.

The nominees are Demi Moore, the green girl from Wicked and three actresses no one has ever heard of.

She's not even green! She's taken a part away from genuinely green female-identifying actresses and this an outrage.

Nobody wants to hear a Cynthia Erivo acceptance speech: "Everything I do is innately queer..."

Demi is going to win.

LOLLLLL R165-

I saw “I’m Still Here” today. It is difficult to imagine any voter who sees that film not voting for Torres. It is a masterful performance that few actors could give. But Demi does have a better story. This could be a nail biter.

Demi is a delight generally, but that performance does not deserve an Oscar. Ever since Sandra Bullock won for The Blindside though, I guess anything goes with respect to long-suffering “America’s sweetheart” types.

The other four nominees are all either POC or foreign, or played some combination thereof. It’s theoretical that it could be a four-way horse race to the bottom among them, with Demi squeaking out the plurality.

I think the academy is clamoring to give it to a brave Latina, ideally finding a way to show support for Big Trans. My gut, frightfully, is telling me it’s going to be an Erivo win.

They're not giving that ungrateful miserable bitch the EGOT.

Torres in an Olivia Coleman upset.

Torres gives the best performance in the category but Demi has the strongest narrative.

Mikey Madison isn’t POC or Foreign. And I’m watching Anora as I type this and she’s incredible. A new favorite.

I thought Pamela Anderson’s performance was more deserving of a nod than Erivo’s.

Was “The Room Next Door” within the eligibility window? Tilda Swinton and even more so Julianne Moore (seriously) gave excellent character studies, maybe my two favorite leading lady performances of the last twelve months. The Academy seems to have lost its way over the last couple decades, insofar as they were originally conceived to reward artistic excellence.

I hope Torres loses because she is a racist twat. I find it funny how that Variety journalist Clayton whined last year about Carey Mulligan playing Leonard Bernstein's wife Felicia Montealegre in Maestro and this year he is rooting for Fernanda Torres despite her being a racist twat.

I'm sorry, but painting your face green and singing showtunes in a juvenile "Wizard of Oz" spinoff musical does not warrant an Oscar for anyone.

Someone who can make an unboring speech.

Cynthia Erivo is in the insufferably annoying territory as Viola Davis.

Is there some sort of story behind 174's annoying "Torres is a racist twat" claims other than 174 being a twat themselves?

R173 The Academy has ALWAYS been very political. Many, many times, it hasn't been the "best" nominee who wins but the one who campaigns the best.

I think Demi has a slight advantage...people love a good comeback story.

Gascon is in a hot movie but a lot of people think Saldana has the juicier role and it seems likely Saldana will win for Supporting. Gascon is unknown and not experienced at campaigning for Oscar.

Madison could get it...highly acclaimed though some are gonna think, she's too young/new...it's 'not her turn'.

I don't think Erivo is liked. And, it's a hit movie that doesn't need this Oscar. And, it's half a movie.

Torres can sneak in and win it if enough people see the movie and love the performance and/or aren't that keen on the other 4 options.

It's not an open and shut case this year, which is sort of fun. So many years, it seems like the winners are picked before hand.

Demi’s reviews and the movies have been superb. Torres missed out on BAFTA and SAG. Torres did a skit in black face in the 2000s that has resurfaced and she apologized for.

Gascon posted something on Twitter comparing herself to holocaust victims because she’s been getting criticized

Demi

Jean-Baptiste didn’t get nominated! They’ve been flogging her for weeks now. I still have no idea what the movies about.

Im surprised how pro Demi DL is. Its actually great to see. Perhaps the average age on DL is around the age where we were 20 when Ghost was huge and were the actual teens the brat pack was aimed at. Is it nostalgia?

Strength of performance probably favors Madison, politics favors latinks or trans representation, experience and a “Hollywood ending” favor Demi. Erivo is not well-liked and, relative to Demi’s longevity, she’s just too green.

R183 I am 45 (will be 45 in May) and I am Demi all the way. My two favorite films this year were Anora and The Substance. (And I saw The Holdovers for the first time this Christmas, and that is now one of my favorites of all time)

Karla Sofia Gascon made some disparaging comments about George Floyd and Muslims which may cost her some votes.

Cut to Demi Moore popping champagne right now.

So far 2 of the nominees have dubious history as racists. That leaves 3. Who's next to go? Might be last woman standing lol.

Who are the racist ones? What did they do/say?

(didn't read the whole thread)

R189 It's all a bunch of horseshit. Fernanda Torres did blackface in some sketch on a TV show 20 years ago in Brazil.

Gascon is being accused of...what, I really don't know. Having an opinion?

The two racists are out.

[quote]Fernanda Torres did blackface in some sketch on a TV show 20 years ago in Brazil.

Blackface was still racist 20 years ago.

And she only apologizes NOW after she's nominated for an oscar?

Funny. Robert Downey Jr did blackface in a big Hollywood movie 20 years and no one was calling him a racist last year when he won his Oscar.

The one racist is also a nepo baby. So double no.

r194 Can you explain your aversion to "nepo babies"?

Show us on the doll where the evil nepo baby touched you?

It's between Cynthia and Demi.

Mikey Madison a dark horse possibility.

Apparently as good as Marianne Jean Baptiste was, the feeling is that her character was SUCH an unlikeable, unredeemable cunt that it really turned moviegoers (and, apparently, Academy voters) off.

R195 is Kate Hudson

Marianne J-B wins London Critics Circle Film Awards. No surprise there.

R199: Even if she got in at the Oscars, I don't think a London Critics Circle Film Awards win would say much. Fiennes was the nice surprise winner in lead actor and I just hope he can make it all the way to the Oscars.

People have been underestimating Fiennes all season. I think it’s a three way race for Best Actor and a lot closer than people think.

Demi, I hope. She's brave.

It is inconceivable that Demi doesn't win the Oscar. She is a shoo in. I can't wait! The narrative is delicious, and The Substance was a fantastic film that I have continued to think about for months.

R201: This isn't the cakewalk that Brody thought it was going to be. There's a lot of goodwill for Fiennes.

She is not going to win, but the only upside to Karla Sofia winning is all the conservative heads that would explode. It would be so much fun to watch. I want her to win just for this to be the water cooler talk and piss Magas off.

R205, you must have missed the reveal of Gascon's old tweets this week. She's the most MAGA of all the Best Actress contenders.

R206 This is what I hate about social media. Because yes slightly how she worded what she said is offensive. But nothing about the overall message was. Social media will be the downfall of humanity because no one is engaging text or media in their full content anymore. It’s making us dumber as humans. It’s all reactionary. No one is actually critically thinking.

I guess what I’m saying is no critical analysis is nuanced anymore. It’s all so reactionary. Is everyone a Nicki Minaj fan. Must we pick a side. Why can’t things be complex anymore.

R207/R208, I agree that there should be nuanced critical analysis, but come on: she said she didn't understand the war against Hitler because he had a different opinion about the Jews.

People have justifiably complained about the excesses of cancel culture, but "don't try to justify Hitler" has been a pretty consistent rule for a while now. It's not a high bar to clear.

R209 she said she didn't understand the war against Hitler because he had a different opinion about the Jews.

😱 So I didn’t know she said that, so I am revealing my own ignorance. I just read the 3 other tweets she made about George Floyd and Islam. Them mafuckin hormones must have had her brain leaking.

Is there anyone who likes Emelia Perez? I think Demi Moore or Cynthia Erivo has a pretty clear path to the win.

R211 It’s definitely between them two. If anything Sofia’s drama just ensures she won’t function as spoil for them competing against each other. Me thinks anyone who would vote for her, will bow vote for Eviro. Checkmate Demi.

Now vote*

This Oscars is gonna be gooood. Nearly every major category is unpredictable. The only person I think with certainty will win is Zoe for Best supporting.

Karla Sofia was never going to win anyway...she wasn't sweeping the critic's prizes while Saldana WAS winning the majority of the critic's awards for supporting. Mikey Madison was the one sweeping those awards for Best Actress.

[QUOTE] The only person I think with certainty will win is Zoe for Best supporting.

I think the KSG drama could now affect Saldaña’s frontrunner status. I would love if this could lead to a dark horse win for Felicity Jones who gives the best performance in that category.

I think Demi is going to win. What I wonder though is this- Since they're doing to fiver former winners introducing each nominee thing again, who in the world will agree to introduce Gascon?

I don’t think they can keep to that format now r217.

R217 Mel Gibson in drag?

Someone on another thread said gascon looked like Vic tayback, now I can’t unsee it

[quote]Apparently as good as Marianne Jean Baptiste was, the feeling is that her character was SUCH an unlikeable, unredeemable cunt that it really turned moviegoers (and, apparently, Academy voters) off.

From the clips and the trailer, her character reminds me of Peggy Gravel from "Desperate Living," hilariously cunting about anything and everything.

I love the scene where her character is slinking around a furniture store being a cunt to customers and staff alike.

To a couple canoodling on a couch: “No one wants to take that home with your DNA all over it!”

She’s a great character and it’s a terrific performance. They should have nominated her.

Jean-Baptist was absolutely wonderful and frankly its disheartening that she (or another actress) was pushed out for a female impersonator.

Funny that Gascón’s “historic” nomination has completely backfired in their faces. Probably won’t see a trans nominee for a while.

Demi will likely win. Haven’t seen Torres yet, maybe a smidge of a chance of an upset?

Stevie Wonder can see that it will be Demi for the win this year.

Variety predicts Ariana Grande to win Best Supporting so it looks like Zoe isn’t a shoe in either.

I feel like Zoe is really well liked in the film industry. We all know how the Academy feels about giving pop stars awards for acting, especially because it might be a fluke. Even Cher had to work her way up to several critically acclaimed performances.

>Variety predicts

Lol that’s Clayton Davis, a pundit who is basically paid to create clickbait. He’d been claiming for months that September 5 was going to win best picture.

Scott Feinberg was the September 5 guy, and he’s at the Hollywood Reporter. Clayton Davis is the Oscar pundit who’s always about diversity.

Ah thanks r228. I mix them up. Clayton was on the Wicked train til he switched to the Dylan movie.

If Zoe Saldana was nominated for Best Actress, it would have given Selena Gomez a shot at Best Supporting. Karla did them all wrong.

Still think the people who don’t vote for Karla are monsters, Clayton?

Emilia Perez seems to be this year's Color Purple in that the drama is taking down the actual movie itself. Only Perez was able to make it to the nomination stage before it imploded.

At this point Karla is taking down the entire movie with her, and I'll be very surprised if it wins anything. Zoe's probably fucking pissed right now.

I think Rossellini will win Supporting Actress, as she should. She's been in the business for decades turning in decent work, and she has a well-regarded reputation. The oscars love giving career achievement awards like this in the Supporting categories.

Ariana? Well this is her first critically acclaimed movie role and nomination. I feel if she is award worthy for the second, then she will get it. She's still a little too wet behind the ears for the oscar.

R193 You’re an idiot if you don’t get the difference. RDJ was playing two characters in that film.

R232: Hopefully Ralph Fiennes goes along for the ride if Rossellini wins.

I absolutely ADORE Isabella Rossellini, and I have adored and worshipped her since the 90s. I love her spirit.

And I loved Conclave. And I was excited to see that Isabelle Rossellini was in it.

And yet.......

I don't understand this nomination. She was in this film for like three minutes? And she says about three words.

I like the narrative of her getting nominated and being recognized and validated in this way, after all these years.

But if people were allowed to be cranky that Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything, Everywhere, then this nomination makes even less sense. I say this, again, as a huge fan who thinks that Isabella Rossellini is a profoundly cool and worthy human being.

Hey Rami Malek and Sandra Bullock won Oscars so Rosellini winning for a cameo isn't out of the question.

JLC had much more screen-time than Rossellini does.

These kinds of nominations used to happen all the time throughout the history of the Academy. People are so taken aback because they’re not used to it. They’re more accustomed to this category being filled with almost-leads.

Check out Hermione Baddeley’s performance in Room at the Top (1959). I think it’s even shorter than Isabella’s (okay, I just looked it up - it’s 2 minutes and 19 seconds which is the shortest supporting performance ever nominated).

Beatrice Straight won for Network with a five minute scene. She did have quite a bit of dialogue in that monologue, I will note.

R237 They’re more accustomed to this category being filled with almost-leads.

You’re right on the money with this. It used to be the top billing male or female would be in best lead regardless if they were the main character or not not, this was especially true for female actresses often co-starring in critically acclaimed films with a male protagonist. I know my Oscars history. I was shocked when Viola submitted and ultimately won for Fences. She is not the main character but she is the leading actress of that film. Category manipulation have been a way for co-leads to get easy wins as there is less scrutiny in the supporting performances.

[quote] you must have missed the reveal of Gascon's old tweets this week. She's the most MAGA of all the Best Actress contenders.

She'll probably become pals with Caitlyn Jenner and Jennifer Pritzker.

[quote]Hopefully Ralph Fiennes goes along for the ride if Rossellini wins.

I hope not. Love Fiennes and he should have a pair for Schindler’s List and Grand Budapest, but that Conclave performance is one any distinguished Brit could’ve done in their sleep. Nothing special there.

Rossellini has 8 minutes of screen time. Straight gave a master class in acting during that scene and ran the gamut of emotions. She was also a well respected and liked theater veteran. Her character was one of the only ones in network that had a heart who you had sympathy for. Talia Shire was dumb not to campaign for best supporting actress it would’ve been an easy win for her.

Patricia Neal was going to be campaigned in supporting and it would’ve been a category fraud. Best Actress was considered a very weak category and she began to win best actress awards.

[quote]But if people were allowed to be cranky that Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything, Everywhere, then this nomination makes even less sense.

One big difference is that Isabella Rossellini gave a good performance, whereas Jamie Lee Curtis did not.

Touche, R242.

Entertainment Weekly predictions: Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

Few Oscar contenders have squandered their potential (in the middle of a campaign, mind you) as spectacularly as Emilia Pérez's history-making Best Actress nominee. In January, Gascón made headlines after becoming the first openly trans person to be nominated for any of the Academy's acting awards, but a subsequent, poorly worded interview in which she spoke about online harassment with regard to fellow nominee Fernanda Torres led to social media users unearthing past, offensive posts that many have labeled as Islamophobic and racist. Though Gascón has profusely defended herself (she offered her “most sincere apologies to all the people who may have felt offended" and said she's "neither racist nor anything that all these people have tried to make others believe," in a televised interview with CNN), the damage to her once-bright campaign was done.

Though Gascón was likely never in a position to win Best Actress in the first place, the fact that the chaos erupted over her comments about Torres' social media team is a key factor in the equation. Torres' Brazilian fans represent a vocal, powerful sector of social media and largely lobbied against Gascón even before the actress' past posts resurfaced; that same passion and pride for one of their own can also be traced across the Academy's Best Picture category, where Torres' film, I'm Still Here, scored high enough on the preferential ballot to slip into the category. Now, the same people defending Torres online are not the same people casting AMPAS ballots, but such commitment is a fiery passion they share with the international faction of the Academy's acting branch that boosted Torres toward a Best Actress nomination. Goodwill could be on her side enough to secure her a victory over presumed frontrunner Demi Moore (The Substance), whose comeback narrative has thus far worked very well in her favor, and still makes her an extremely viable option for voters.

At this stage, it could go either way, but if anything, Oscar season has taught us to go with the most unorthodox choice when forced to choose between logic or disruption.

[quote]Rossellini has 8 minutes of screen time.

Judi Dench won Best Supporting for an 8 minute role.

Judi Dench won for eight minutes, but every moment on screen could have been her Oscar clip. She's not lurking in the background like Rossellini does for most of Conclave, Dench dominates each of her three scenes.

R244 So Torres own racist past doesn’t disqualify her either? I call bullshit on Entertainment weekly

Has someone who missed both BAFTA and SAG nominations ever been nominated for Best Actress?

The predictions for Torres are going to drive me mad for the next month. She's a middle-aged Brazilian actress who isn't really connected to Hollywood, she's not going to win a SAG or BAFTA award, and even though I'm Still Here got the surprise Best Picture nomination, she's still has the weakest film out of her competitors.

There is absolutely no precedent that suggests Torres can win Best Actress.

[quote]udi Dench won Best Supporting for an 8 minute role.

I won for just over five minutes!

"There is absolutely no precedent that suggests Torres can win Best Actress."

Hello there.

"There is absolutely no precedent that suggests Torres can win Best Actress."

Bonjour.

Olivia Colman was nominated everywhere that season, including at SAG. She won the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, the Volpi Cup at Venice and a ton of critics awards. Her film received ten nominations in comparison to the single one for The Wife.

Marion Cotillard also won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA and was nominated everywhere that season, including at SAG. She also won a ton of critics prizes, and was up against a previous winner who didn't do much campaigning while Cotillard went hard on the awards circuit.

Torres hasn't been the critical favorite this year. She wasn't nominated at SAG or BAFTA. She won the Golden Globe in a category that featured none of her fellow Oscar nominees, and that's basically it. There is no comparison to either Colman or Cotillard, who were considered for most of the season to be the obvious alternative to the perceived front-runners they eventually bested.

[Quote] "There is absolutely no precedent that suggests Torres can win Best Actress."

Et moi

You're just throwing out names of foreign actresses who have Best Actress Oscars now, R254. And when you mention Sophia Loren next, you'll still be wrong.

It's tough to compare Signoret because she won her Oscar decades before the SAG Awards existed and BAFTA became an Oscar precursor. And even then, she still came into the ceremony with a BAFTA (Room at the Top was released the previous year in Britain) and a Best Actress prize from Cannes. And her film was such a strong Oscar player that year that it was the only film to beat Ben-Hur for an award that year (Screenplay).

Torres has none of those advantages.

I agree that Torres doesn't have much of an advantage. It should have been Pamela Anderson's Golden Globe. It's still such a bizarre win.

A vote for Torres is a vote for a blackfaced racist!!

FandomWire says Demi.

I'm rooting for Jessica Tandy.

I think it'll be me.

I scored the role of a lifetime for me AND my children.

It's been announced that Gascon will not get her own 'tribute' (so to speak) when the Best Actress category comes up. As is the tradition that past winners each are assigned to a nominee, Gascon will not get one.

Sorry. Here you go:

Just another effort by the Academy to ignore trans excellence and silence trans voices. #OscarsSoCis