[quote]NORTH CAROLINA: Will have to wait 30-60 minutes (and longer in some counties' cases) for Early Vote and Mail-ins to drop, then EDay vote comes after. Expect a blue mirage, similar to 2020/2022 in NC, and EDay vote coming in after to close the gap. Full results perhaps by midnight EST, but could be later as well.
[quote]PENNSYLVANIA: Mail-in votes (most Dem-heavy, likely breaking 70/30 or better for Dems) will be released first, as counties will begin counting them the morning of EDay and posting the results after polls close. Allegheny County will drop all its mail shortly after poll closing. After all mail votes are uploaded, EDay votes will be tallied, which are 70+% of the total votes counted. Expect a blue mirage before the EDay votes come in.
[quote]We likely won't get a call before the early morning hours of Wednesday if the election is within 2% in either direction, especially as Election Day votes in Philadelphia typically come in last. Vote counting will last well into Thursday, as was the case in 2022.
[quote]MICHIGAN: Mail-in and Early Vote will be counted first, and counties may start tabulating them in the days beforehand. Once those numbers are released, EDay vote begins getting counted. This should yield a fairly fast count, however, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has said to only expect full results by Wednesday night, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the pace of the count. Michigan is the state I'm most unsure about in terms of exact timing, and we may or may not get a call in MI on Election Night.
[quote]WISCONSIN: Votes are reported in mixed fashion statewide across several hours, with Milwaukee County typically being the last county to finish counting. In 2020 and 2022, Milwaukee County mostly finished up in the early morning hours of Wednesday. That's likely to hold this year, and we may not get a call of Wisconsin before then, depending on who leads the count before the final Milwaukee dump.
[quote]ARIZONA: Early Vote gets dumped in large batches several minutes to an hour after poll closing, and once the Early Vote is done, counties proceed to counting EDay in-person votes. However, around 20% of votes are "EDay dropoffs"; mail-in votes dropped off at dropboxes or election sites on EDay itself. Trump will be behind to start, and will be playing "catch up" from there. Counting will take several days because of all the late mail, similar to 2022.
[quote]NEVADA: IPEV and EDay votes get released first about thirty minutes to an hour after polls close (11pm EST), and then mail-in votes start to trickle in after. Expect counting to take several days, similar to Arizona, as there are many EDay mail dropoffs (especially in Clark) that typically skew younger and Dem-leaning. Trump will start with a lead from the rural vote (of all types) and IPEV and EDay vote from Washoe and Clark. Harris will likely be playing "catch-up" with the remaining mail-in dropoffs.
