Allan Lichtman has spoken: Kamala will win!

I can't get over that skin. Like a fucking burn victim.

They both have excellent veneers, the very best money can buy. Although there seems to be something lodged between his canine and premolar. A piece of cheeto?

He don’t know shit-these are “unprecedented” times.Sadly-he will be wrong.

Thx Litchman-now dems. won’t even bother to vote. Trump wins!

He must be pro-Dump.

Here's a gift article from the NYT. It's a bit cutesy -- especially when it stars Lichtman's ratty Korean wig -- but hopefully you'll enjoy it.

OK, fine, but she's got to stop laughing at everything.

he's like Freddy Krueger crossed with Bigfoot

[quote] Thx Litchman-now dems. won’t even bother to vote. Trump wins!

Right. Because the vast majority of potential voters read arcane stories about unscientific election predictors in The New York Times, which requires a paid subscription.

You certainly nailed it.

🙄

R9 Never underestimate the stupidity of a DLer weighing in on politics. It might be that right wing concern troll tho.

Well, that's a relief.

Allan Lichtman will say that he has predicted 10 of the last 10 presidential elections. Lichtman says that Al Gore won Florida and thus would have won the presidency, but the Supreme Court stopped the counting.

[quote]OK, fine, but she's got to stop laughing at everything.

Bless your heart, r7, you haven't been paying attention...have you?

Here are the keys, and Lichtman’s determinations for each:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE

3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE

4. Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. TRUE

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE

6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE

10. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE

11. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE

12. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

13. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

On the final two keys, Lichtman said, “Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip.” He noted that the Biden administration is deeply involved in Israel’s war in Gaza, which he called a “humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.”

“But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House,” Lichtman told the Times.

More of this stupidity. Kamala will likely win, but I am so sick of this guy and his keys being treated as something special. The outcomes of the last ten elections were largely predictable yet he's treated as a soothsayer for getting 9 out of 10 right just because he predicted Trump over Hillary.

Win the popular or the electoral??

Win the presidency, i.e. the electoral college.

Despite your politics, who could resist watching Trump lose spectacularly? It will be months of accusations, lawsuits, conspiracies, riots, looting... and he'll never concede to Kamala.

Republican strategist Stuart Stevens: Harris wins by a larger margin than Biden in 2020. He predicts the race will be close until around Oct 20-25, and then Independents and undecideds will break for Harris.

Allan Lichtman also cautiously added:

That leaves Harris winning the White House, he said. “At least that's my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”

^^That's right. We must defeat Trump. Don't take anything for granted.

Swing state or not...Get out and vote!!

Never trust a senior in a cheap wig. Why aren’t journalists asking him about his wig?

R6, I know his hair is a bit much. But I have a feeling that it might possibly be his own real hair. In the video included in the Times article, you see images of him through the years. He did have an amazingly thick and full head of hair.

R23 That actually is his real hair. I've seen photos of him through various ages and he retained his thick hair throughout. My older cousin who is now also 77 has basically the same hair. I lost mine around age 40.

R24 = Terri Gibbs.

Fingers crossed Kamala wins. Disastrous if Trump wins.

Bullshit, R24. I looked up images of him over the years on Wikipedia, and there is no fucking way that's his real hair.

I won't believe it unless I see him yank [bold]really hard[/bold] on the top of it, and even then, I might not believe it.

I would have though a bunch of gay men could spot a ratty Korean wig a mile away...for shame.

It's wig-adjacent natural hair--with a tragic dye job

[quote] I can't get over that skin. Like a fucking burn victim.

R1 Trump's skin is horrid. Cultivated over decades of poor diet, I'm sure practically zero water drinking, and excessive makeup and spray tanning. I've seen more beautiful skin on the rotisserie chickens at Costco.

^^ Oops. Re: Cultivation, I forgot to mention something critical. COPIOUS DRUG USE.

From his lips to gods ears

R6, I like to think I’m quick to spot fake hair. Yes, his might be a ratty wig. But another reason - apart from the many pics of him at different ages - that I believe(d) it’s real. Is that in the video where he’s shown running a marathon quite recently, his hair moves like real hair.

And if it is real, I’m definitely jealous.

Trump's fake teeth smile is one of the most sinister smiles I've ever seen. He looks pure evil.

who?

Only on DL could a thread about election prognostication devolve into a discussion of hair.

At least we’re consistent, r35.

Does he wear a cheap McCrory’s wig?

I went on a Lichtman deep dive over the summer. He's a kooky guy! Very likable. Yes, very full of himself. But very intelligent.

His keys actually make a ton of sense. It cuts away all the fat. All the punditry. All the subjective "feelings" and "intuitions". It ignores all the polls. Just focuses on the most basic facts, using 150 years of presidential elections as fuel for the data.

Tastefully applied makeup, well groomed hair. She starts out with more on the ball than the opponent who wears dust bunnies as a hair weave and smears orange shit all over his bovine features!