Nate Silver: Embarrassing RFK Exit Has No Effect on Kamala’s Polling Lead

That must be killing him to admit that.

It’s been 24hrs

[QUOTE] It’s been 24hrs

He didn’t even need that much time, R2.

He strategically endorsed him at a rally in Arizona where he had some of the highest polling in the nation, at 6% to 7%. So there will be some bigger damage there to Kamala than elsewhere, unfortunately.

As Nikki Haley learned, votes aren't really transferable. Many people were specifically turning to RFK because they hated Trump but couldn't vote Democratic either. You just don't turn around and then think, yeah Trump's okay I guess. Trump is still the useless cunt he always was, and the people that didn't want to vote for him in the first place still won't vote for him just because the brainworm bitch dropped out.

Many of his votes will go to Kamala, R4. Just like they were always going to. The assumption that Trump would just absorb all of his support was wrong.

When you are a protest vote, you can’t direct your supporters to support what they were protesting by supporting you.

I agree with others here, I don't think this will heavily affect Harris's lead. I thought the more drilled-down polls showed that roughly half of RFK's supporters would go to Harris, half to Trump. Maybe slightly more to Trump in AZ, but not enough to make a big difference.

It's kind of like people who say that Clinton only won in '92 because of Ross Perot.

Except that with exit polling, had Perot not been in the race, about a 3rd of his voters would have gone to Clinton, a third to HW Bush, and the remaining third wouldn't have voted.

I think the post hoc rationalization is what the kids today call "cope."

Too bad Nate Silver has no clue about polling.

Most of these Kennedy supporters are weird conspiracy nutters who won’t vote at all or will write in something stupid.

It depends. If Trump turns up the anti-vax deep state rhetoric....

I'm honestly not that concerned, but I can't dismiss it entirely.

[quote] and the remaining third wouldn't have voted.

I have to think this is a big part of Kennedy's "support."

I suspect he'd lose more than he'd gain if he decided to go all in with RFK's crazy r12.

[quote]I have to think this is a big part of Kennedy's "support."

That and well-fitted Spanx.

Maybe they will settle for Cornel West or Jill Stein

Was it here or on Threads where I saw someone refer to Jill Stein as a malignant cicada who reappears every four years?

It's really a shame. The Green Party probably could have some actual sway if they'd act like a serious party and not just run a vanity campaign every presidential election. If nothing else, it would give the Democrats cover to be a little more to the left.

The last thing we need is for the Green Party to get smarter, R17. Then they really will start hurting Dem chances every four years.

I'm of two minds. I would just like a functional system where we have an actual choice between left and right, instead of kinda center and fascist.

But yes, in our current situation "kinda center" is the best we're going to be able to do, and I do not want to damage that when the risks for the Other Guys are so extreme.

Look at those clown RFK trying to redefine MAGA.

Anyone asked RFK Jr how Trump's asshole tastes?

He could transmit those brain worms by licking his asshole too deeply.

“Desperate”

Not mincing words:

She’s done in Hollywood. She might as well go full MAGA and start doing Christian movies with Dennis Quaid.

Political scientist Larry Sabato agrees with Silver:

“For people who think that, because he’s endorsing Trump, he can just move that 2 percent into Trump’s column, they don’t know much about politics. It doesn’t work that way. It’s not going to work that way.”

Kennedy "has been dropping like a rock ever since Kamala Harris got in."

what's that disgusting odor?🤮

tf you lookin at me bitch?💩

Who is the retarded child with limited vocabulary and communicating through emojis? Did his mother smoke crack?

Just when you thought you got to the bottom of JFK Jr's crazy, he goes on and beheads a whale!!

People thinking Trump should replace JD with RFK have no idea how fucking weird and creepy RFK is generally and esp with animals. After Noem and the childless cat lady mess, they don’t want to open up the can of brain worms that is RFKJ.

RFK Jr^^

RFK Jr is fckn brilliant!

The way he treated his ex wife is just as bad as the dead animal stuff. He and Dump are really two peas in a pod.

Hahaha, looks like RFK is staying on the ballot in all of the swing states he tried to withdraw from!

RFK will end up being Secretary of Trump's diapers, a shitty job for a real shitty human being, and the rest of the world will laugh and laugh and laugh at his misersble ass.

Any news on the Car Wash Cunt and what she has to say?

RFK staying on the ballot in Michigan

Why this might spell disaster down the road for Kamala Harris’ support amongst Hollywood hasbeen housewives

r31 also, no one wants to hear RFK's fucked up voice. If there is a thing as a face for radio, then there is a voice made for a silent commune. RFK is that voice. He should shut up and fuck right the hell off somewhere.