Trump can't win

OP this article is from March 6.

Since then, quite a bit has changed.

Galen is co-founder of the Lincoln Project. Certainly an objective observer.

ChatGPT Summary: Since Donald Trump incited an insurrection following his 2020 electoral loss, his rhetoric and behavior have become more extreme. This trend may depress Republican voter turnout and lead to a significant defeat for him in the upcoming election. Despite narrowly winning in 2016, Trump has since faced consistent electoral setbacks. His control over the Republican Party and its increasingly extreme stance has alienated moderates and independents. The changing demographics, with younger voters leaning Democratic, further reduce his chances. Issues like reproductive rights and national security policies have pushed many away from Trump, making a major defeat likely.

I think he won’t leave if he wins in 2024

He will certainly claim the election is stolen, but he can’t pull off a takeover of the Capitol because Joe will be in charge of the National Guard. My big concern—and only concern—is Congress trying to contest the results and/or there being an electoral college tie. I think if Dump loses again, the Repuke party might just dump him for real and move on with life. He won’t be in a position to run in 2028, he really will probably be a mess, or at least an even worse mess than he is now.

Oh look. Another Trump thread.

OP here is an article from a few days ago. I have also summarized it in ChatGPT because I know you won’t bother to read it:

Certain Democrats believe that President Biden can win in 2024 by rallying unenthusiastic allies, particularly young, Black, and Hispanic voters, against Donald Trump, whose past electoral ceiling was below 47%. However, recent polls suggest Biden’s ceiling might be lower than Trump’s, with more voters now firmly against Biden than Trump. In key swing states, 52% of voters said they would never vote for Biden, compared to 46% for Trump. This shift reflects growing voter dissatisfaction with Biden and some warming to the idea of Trump's return. Consequently, Biden faces significant challenges beyond simply uniting his base against Trump.

Biden has this in the bag.

3 Hours Agp

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll found that in a hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden across seven battleground states — including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the former president brought in 48 percent of the vote to Biden’s 44 percent.

When adding in third-party and independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein, Trump still held a 4-point lead over the incumbent, 44 percent to 40 percent respectively. Kennedy garnered 7 percent of the vote, while West and Stein each brought in only 1 percent, the survey found.

The results are similar to those from a recent poll from The New York Times, which found Trump ahead of Biden by 3 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Michigan, 7 points in Arizona, 10 points in Georgia and 12 points in Nevada. However, in Wisconsin, the sitting president led Trump by 2 points.

Colostomy bag.

A body bag is more like it, R8.

Obviously OP is a trumper,we still have to vote Biden or lose union,simple.

I didn’t think he’d win in 2016. Fool me once…

This is what pisses me off when celebrities like Colin Kaepernick and Cardi B amongst others say that they don’t vote. Unfortunately we have a nation full of young chowderheads who will listen to them. Just vote. I’m not totally happy with Biden but party over principles works for the right wing. It certainly did in 2016. And it worked for liberals in 2020. Let lightning strike twice.

Keep trolling, r7.

The media is very desperate for a horse race.

I think Biden's win will be considerable, but I'm going to have low-key anxiety between now and November and will try to curtail my news consumption.

R14 okay.

This whole thing is a nightmare. The country's future- our entire democracy- sits on the frail shoulders of an 82-yr. old man. How did this happen? If Biden drops dead Kamala can't beat Trump (she's the Deplorable's biggest fear).

R 15 is an ostrich,enjoy.

R16 this is an opinion piece, nothing more, nothing less.

OP let me illustrate something for you

Biden only gets elected if he holds on to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania AND Nebraska’s second congressional district

If he loses Nebraska 2, which he only won by 22,000 votes, then the election becomes tied at 269 and will be decided by the House, but on a state delegation by delegation basis, which favors Republicans.

In the graph below I have zero’d out the three sunbelt states likely to flip and taken on elector from Maine who represents the rural congressional district Trump carried last election.

This is Biden’s only path to being reelected.

R19 and so was OPs.

If Biden were to step down now, who’s going to take his place on such short notice? And without enough time to win over Democrats? Please, it’s ridiculous to think that anyone can replace him at this point. And he’s surrounded with people in his cabinet who are more than competent to give him the backup he needs. Stop it.

“And he’s surrounded with people in his cabinet who are more than competent to give him the backup he needs.”

Name ONE.

Trump CAN'T win and he WON'T win. Not if Biden has anything to say about it. 😎

R23 I don’t have to. Team Biden. 😝

Polls are BS.

Because there aren’t any, R25.

Buttigieg? Mayorkas? Yellen?

LOL . . . Oh, my sides.

[quote]If Biden were to step down now, who’s going to take his place on such short notice? And without enough time to win over Democrats?

You are likely correct. There is not enough time to replace Biden, so you simply have to accept that he will probably lose.

[quote]There is not enough time to replace Biden, so you simply have to accept that he will probably lose.

zzzzz

Really people, the tRump camp’s greatest fear is that they’ll have to run against a known, white, nonthreatening commodity - i.e. Biden.

They would just LOVE Democrats to pick a new candidate they could quickly brand as a tree hugging Socialist. Heck, since polls have shown he takes a tad too many T**** votes, they’ve even begun rebranding JFK, Jr. (!)

Dataloungers, you need to convince your nieces and nephews to vote; . . . and to vote for Joe.

[quote] I think he won’t leave if he wins in 2024

But the grim reaper won't let us down. I think being in his 80s will take him out, one way or another. He's looking pretty weather-beaten, not to mention the crazy rambling. The late, great Hannibal Lecter. He’s a wonderful man. Congratulations, the late, great Hannibal Lecter…

Fuck both Trump and Biden! They are dinosaurs.

R23, why do you want Trump to win? Let’s move this conversation into the real world since you have outed yourself as a Trump follower/agitator. Please list three things you are looking forward to happening when Trump takes over. Are you okay with the idea of him being “President for Life”? Do you think he raped E. Jean Carroll in a dressing room and are you okay with that quality in a Commander in Chief?

Let’s have a real conversation.

[quote]Fuck both Trump and Biden! They are dinosaurs.

Pick one and shut the fuck up, r32.

[quote]My big concern—and only concern—is Congress trying to contest the results and/or there being an electoral college tie.

Bear in mind that the previous Congress tightened up those rules considerably before they adjourned.

r33, that poster isn't here for a real conversation. Check out their other posts.

The thing that makes me dismiss Galen's piece is the premise that people are moved by rational fact. Nowhere do I see him address how the population is feeling.

R37 .

Biden's problem is that he is a terrible communicator who has difficulty with articulating a message of accomplishment to the American voters. He is just not able to convince anyone of anything except that Trump is evil.

Vladimir and Alexei are working overtime to destabilize the Democrats. Even trying Datalounge on for size.

Hi R38! Too bad you blocked me, because you're obviously still fascinated! Lighten up a little!

The American people do not want Kamala Harris to be President, which is what she’ll become should Biden be re-elected and have to relinquish the Oval Office.

There’s absolutely no way Biden could fulfill another full term.

R33 let me try to explain something to you because you seem to be autistic or something

Acknowledging that Trump will probably win doesn’t mean you want him to win

It merely acknowledges that Biden is historically unpopular and is in a very poor position for reelection. Biden himself is 100% responsible for this, not Trump. He should not have run for reelection with the data and sentiment so clearly pointing to an election loss.

If the reliance on the facts before us mattered so significantly, the polling would not be what it is. I suppose all there is to do is hope the polling is wrong. Again. But I don't like to bet the country on it.

An incumbent President with a majority in the Senate and practically a tie in the House should not be doing so poorly in the polls against someone like Trump.

For the good of the country, Biden should have done an LBJ and announced he would not be seeking re-election.

[quote] He is just not able to convince anyone of anything except that Trump is evil.

Nobody has to convince anyone Trump is evil. Even those voting for him know this.

You’re not “merely” doing anything, bitch at R43. You’re very obviously shit-stirring and the more you deny being a MAGA, the more I know for sure that you are.

I’m “autistic” because I asked you to defend your god? Do you even know what autistic means?

Have we not learned our lesson? Dump got impeached for trying to get Biden thrown off the Dem ticket. Dump and Boris are trying to do the same thing now. Dump does NOT want to run against Biden. Geez.

Also r43:

[quote]I am really, really retarted.

Calm down, R47. Jesus. Most people with the upper hand don't post like a MAGA clearing security in Turks.

The author expresses concern not just about Joe Biden's slipping poll numbers but about the apparent denial of the reasons behind them within his campaign. Biden is currently trailing Donald Trump by narrow margins in critical swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which he needs to win for re-election. While these states are still within reach, the fact that Biden is behind indicates a troubling trend.

In 2020, Biden won additional key states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, but recent polls show him significantly trailing in these areas. Despite these worrying signs, Democrats continue to lead in Senate races in several of these states, indicating that the electorate's dissatisfaction is more with Biden personally than with the Democratic Party as a whole.

The "Never Biden" sentiment appears to be stronger than the "Never Trump" sentiment, highlighting a critical issue for Biden’s campaign. The Biden team recently challenged Trump to two debates, which seemed like a bold move. However, Biden simultaneously pulled out of three other scheduled debates, which the author criticizes as a strategic misstep that sets a bad precedent and reduces Biden's opportunities to shift voter perceptions.

The article explores several potential reasons for Biden's polling troubles. Firstly, there’s a pervasive belief in Biden's camp that polls are inaccurate, a view the author disputes by pointing out that recent polls have been relatively accurate. Secondly, the media is often blamed for focusing on sensationalist stories rather than substantive issues, but Biden leads among voters who consume traditional media. His problem lies with those who rely on social media and cable news, where Trump has a stronger presence.

Another theory is that it’s a bad time to be an incumbent, though this doesn't hold up in the U.S. context, as seen in the 2022 midterms where Democrats performed well. The author argues that Biden's negative polling is more specific to him than a broader anti-incumbent sentiment.

Economic concerns, particularly inflation and high prices, are another major factor. However, despite better economic indicators now than during the midterms or previous administrations facing similar challenges, Biden is still polling poorly.

The perception of Biden as too liberal for moderate and conservative voters is also hurting him. While he has retained most of his very liberal base, he has lost significant support from moderates and conservatives, contrasting with his historically centrist political identity.

A significant concern is Biden’s age. Many voters, including a large percentage of Democrats, feel Biden is too old for the presidency. His performance varies, and negative clips on social media exacerbate concerns about his capability.

Finally, the author discusses Biden’s strategy against Trump, noting that while preserving democracy is a critical issue, it may not be the most effective way to appeal to voters. The Biden campaign should focus on Trump's policy failures and corruption, which are more tangible issues for many voters.

The article concludes with a warning: ignoring the current unfavorable polling and failing to adapt could lead to a repeat of the 2016 election, where Trump’s victory surprised many. The author stresses that the first step toward winning is recognizing and responding to the reality of the situation.

R51

Zzzzzzz

Yawn, r51.

R52 R53

Joe Biden numbers not so good. Oo oo ah ah! He need win big states to stay boss, but Donald Trump doing better. Biden's team not worried enough, like monkey ignoring a pile of bananas. They even have fewer debates with Trump, less chance to show Biden is good leader. Some think Biden too old or different, like an overripe banana, don't like him much now. Ee ee ah ah!

Biden's team need change how they talk about Trump, show how Trump's choices bad, like a banana that's all peel and no fruit. They also need listen to people's worries like money problems. If Biden's team not take polls serious and change, they might lose. They need pay attention to what people say and fix problems they see, like finding the best banana in the bunch. Ah ah ee ee!

Biden needn't worry, there will not be a repeat of the 2016 fluke election. It was a fluke for a reason.

I read something the other day about how many people who voted for Trump in 2016 have since died. The figure was considerable.

R54 just gave me a wit boner.

R56, And how many Biden voters have been wiped out since 2020, by COVID or otherwise?

They need to focus not on Trump, but on Trump as the catalyst to enact Project 2025.

Because if Project 2025 doesn't strike fear in the heart of every American, well, then I guess we deserve what we get.

If Trump is convicted of felony, he can still serve as President - even if he were to go to prison. He can't vote or carry a gun, but he'll be able to either pardon himself or have the "Justice" department vacate his conviction.

Choosing Kamala Harris was such a HUGE mistake. She has brought nothing to the table and is a clear liability this time around. Biden should have been grooming a young up and comer like Gov Andy Bashear, a Democrat who is beloved in Mc Connell's red ass home state, Kentucky.

[quote][R56], And how many Biden voters have been wiped out since 2020, by COVID or otherwise?

Fewer than Trump voters for obvious reasons, r58.

Not necessarily, R61.

COVID didn’t hit until 2020.

[quote]Choosing Kamala Harris was such a HUGE mistake.

LoL, were saying that in 2020, weren't you, r60?

[quote] And how many Biden voters have been wiped out since 2020, by COVID or otherwise?

Doesn't matter. They still will be allowed to vote.

C'mon trolls, up your fucking game.

R65

Oh, isn't this just precious? Joe Biden’s poll numbers are circling the drain, and he’s trailing behind Donald Trump in those must-win states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Naturally, his brilliant team of advisors is acting like everything’s peachy. They’ve even cut back on debates with Trump—genius, really—right when Biden needs to show he’s not ready for the rocking chair. And, of course, some people think Joe is too old or too out of touch. What a shocker.

Now, if Biden’s team had half a clue, they’d start ripping Trump apart for his endless blunders. But no, they’re ignoring the polls and pretending everything’s just fine, like clueless amateurs. They need to focus on what people actually care about, like the economy, instead of living in la-la land. Biden needs to snap out of it, grab the spotlight, and show some real leadership before he ends up losing to that orange buffoon again. Time to step up, darling, or prepare to pack your bags.

R66 = Milo Yiannopoulos, making troll posts while working the register at an A-Plus.

[QUOTE] Biden needs to snap out of it, grab the spotlight, and show some real leadership before he ends up losing to that orange buffoon again.

You just gave yourself away with the “again” at the end of the sentence, insurrectionist troll. Where were you on January 6th, might we ask?

Exactly r67. You know who would be the happiest person on the planet to see Joe removed from the ballot? Dump.

lol r68

Grrr, Joe Biden's poll numbers bad. He need win big states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan to stay President, but Donald Trump doing better in some. Biden's team not worried enough, like zombies ignoring brains. They cut down debates with Trump, losing chances to show Biden is strong leader. Some think Biden too old or weak, like decaying zombie.

Biden's team need change how they talk about Trump, show Trump’s bad choices, like rotten meat. They need listen to people's worries about economy and other problems. If they ignore polls and don’t change, they might lose. Biden must wake up, fix things, and show voters he still has power. Time to fight, like zombies hungry for victory!

As trolly as your other posts, r66.

Purrrr, let’s unravel this little yarn, shall we? Joe Biden’s poll numbers are looking quite grim, my dear. He’s trailing that dastardly Donald Trump in pivotal states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—places he absolutely needs to keep his presidential throne. But what are his minions doing? They’re lounging about, acting as if everything’s just purrfectly fine! They’ve even slashed the number of debates with Trump, missing out on precious opportunities to showcase Biden’s prowess. And, oh, the whispers—some think our dear Joe is too old or just not dazzling anymore. How positively dreadful!

Now, here’s the feline finesse Biden’s team needs, darling. They must claw at Trump’s every blunder, highlighting his many ghastly choices with the precision of a cat’s swipe. They must also tune into the worries of the everyday folk—like the economy and other pressing issues. If they keep ignoring these ominous signs from the polls and don’t change their strategy, they’ll be left in the alley with nothing but scraps. Biden needs to awaken, seize the spotlight, and show everyone he’s still got the allure and authority to lead. It’s time to pounce, my dear, and remind the world why he’s still the top cat in this political jungle!

Trump might be a problem again in 2028, but not this year with Biden on the ballot. He's not beating Biden, ever. No way, no how.

Oh, everything is just fine with Joe Biden's poll numbers! Sure, some say he's trailing behind Donald Trump in key states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, but those are just minor details. His team has everything under control, and there's no reason to worry. They decided to cut down on the debates with Trump, which is clearly a strategic move. After all, Biden doesn't need to prove anything – everyone already knows he's the best choice. And those whispers about him being too old? Just silly gossip!

Biden’s team doesn’t need to change a thing because the current strategy is obviously perfect. They don’t need to highlight Trump’s bad decisions or focus on economic issues because people will surely see through Trump's facade on their own. The polls might look a bit off now, but they’ve been wrong before, right? Everything will sort itself out in the end, no need to panic or make any drastic changes. Biden’s been doing great, and that’s all that matters.

So, there’s absolutely no need to worry about the poll numbers or what they might be saying. Biden just needs to keep doing what he’s doing, and it will all work out perfectly. His team’s strategy is impeccable, and he’s still got the charm and leadership skills to win over everyone. Those numbers will turn around, you’ll see! Everything is going to be just fine, and Joe Biden will glide effortlessly to victory.

You're the reason the word overwrought was invented, r74.

The article in OPs post is, of course, dated. March. But there are some structural truths in it - as partly confirmed by the 20% or so of Republican primary voters (and closed or open primaries haven't differed much) who in primaries since March have rejected Trump, even though Haley and the rest bowed out. 20% of Republicans making an effort to vote against him, even with the race "over"... These are voters who may well vote for Biden, or at the very least not vote for Trump.

The Biden/Democratic Coalition is, in fact, a Big Tent. And lots of camels in the tent are not happy with the Biden Presidency. Trump is still the clown/comedian who says shit... and America thinks it knows him. "Oh, he doesn't really mean the outrageous things he says!" The Nazi, crackpot , QAnon shit. But as the American Voter starts paying closer attention... they'll see 1) absolutely bizarre and disturbing policy put forward: outlaw birth control; fire all government employees and hire only those who pledge loyalty to Trump, not the Constitution; allow the President to use federal troops against US citizens in domestic contexts; put 15 million in concentration camps and then deport them; give Putin a green light to invade NATO states; give Xi a green light to invade Taiwan. AND 2) voters will also see that Trump really is losing it, old, dementia, memory loss, confusion.

Are the current polls in swing states concerning? Absolutely. But the conditions now and to November are not going to "hurt Biden" more, and they will certainly expose Trump in ways that erode his support.

Last: the MAGA trolls are so much less interesting and effective now than they used to be. Tedious and boring, really. Y'all used to have some wit.

Charlamagne tha God pushed back on pressure to endorse President Joe Biden from The View’s Whoopi Goldberg and Sunny Hostin, declaring both Biden and Donald Trump are “trash.”

“I’ve seen y’all do this on The View before,” he said. “I saw y’all do this to Killer Mike when he was on The View, and Killer Mike literally sat here and said, ‘Hey, I supported Keisha Lance Bottoms, I supported Ralph Warnock, I supported Jon Ossoff… that’s your opportunity to say, clearly he’s talking about President Biden. why do y’all need us to say this if we don’t feel comfortable saying it?” Charlamagne was referring to a February interview with Killer Mike in which the rapper refused to endorse Biden and encouraged voters to focus more on local elections.

Charlamagne told The New York Times earlier this month that he is not endorsing Biden after feeling “burned” following his endorsement in 2020. He called Republicans “crooks” and dismissed Democrats as “cowards.”

Flaws in the R76’s argument

1. Assumption of Voter Behavior: The argument assumes that the 20% of Republican primary voters who rejected Trump will either vote for Biden or abstain from voting for Trump.

2. Big Tent Dissatisfaction: While the Biden/Democratic coalition is diverse, dissatisfaction within it could lead to lower voter turnout or votes for third-party candidates, rather than consolidating support for Biden.

3. Public Perception of Trump: The claim that voters will see Trump’s extreme policies and cognitive decline assumes that these issues will be highlighted effectively and believed by his supporters. Trump’s base has shown resilience and skepticism towards negative portrayals of him in the past.

4. Swing State Polls: The argument downplays the importance of current unfavorable swing state polls for Biden. While it suggests that Trump’s weaknesses will be exposed, it doesn’t account for the possibility that Biden’s own weaknesses could become more pronounced, further affecting his polling.

5. Changing Conditions: The assertion that conditions leading up to November will not hurt Biden more is speculative. Various unforeseen events, economic shifts, or new political scandals could arise, potentially impacting Biden negatively.

These polls are BULLSHIT. No way is Trump ahead in Nevada by 12 or 13 points. I live here, while people may be pissed about high prices and inflation, they're not voting for Trump.

Women are still pissed about abortion.

Don't underestimate that.

Funny, half say he can't win and half the country says he already won. Bahahaha. This country is swirling the drain.

R78 A curious, though coherent, recap of what I wrote. Though really not much in contradiction of what I did say. Of the 20% of Republican primary voters who are still coming out to vote against Trump, even though the primary race is over: of course, not all will vote for Biden, duh. But if only 5% do vote for Biden and 5% stay home in November, that might be enough to tip WI and AZ, and perhaps MI and PA.

But these are two "well known" candidates. In fact, America is pretty much fucking tired of them both. The cognitive decline and truly fascist (not fascist adjacent as in 2016 and 2020) intents of a second Trump reign, are the variables between now and November. Trump is different and more dangerous since 2020. Biden is the same stuttering, frazzled, sweet old Grandpa that he was. The "bar" for Biden is so low, that in events like the debates all he needs to do is speak in complete sentences. The Trump will see more and more of is a dark blip in a bad dream. I claim he's lost it. Others disagree. We shall see.

[quote]In fact, America is pretty much fucking tired of them both.

Yeah, r82...no.

[quote] The "bar" for Biden is so low, that in events like the debates all he needs to do is speak in complete sentences

uhoh

Thank you for that, r84, now the rest of us can feel secure in voting for Trump. Whew!

R82

1. Overestimation of Voter Impact: The argument assumes that a small shift in voter behavior (5% voting for Biden and 5% staying home) will be sufficient to tip the balance in swing states. This may be an oversimplification, as swing states can have complex and unpredictable voter dynamics.

2. Assumption of Low Biden Expectations: While the argument correctly identifies low expectations for Biden, it oversimplifies the impact of his debate performances. Competent speaking might not be enough if voters are looking for more substantial leadership qualities, especially in the face of significant national issues.

3. Trump’s Perceived Danger: The argument hinges on the idea that Trump’s cognitive decline and fascist policies will be clear to voters and sway their opinions. However, this perspective may not be universally accepted, particularly among Trump’s base, who may dismiss or downplay these concerns.

4. Voter Fatigue: The argument states that Americans are tired of both candidates, but it does not fully address how this fatigue might lead to lower overall voter turnout, which could impact both candidates’ chances.

5. Simplistic Binary Outcome: The argument implies a binary outcome based on voter perception of Trump’s decline versus Biden’s stability. This does not consider other factors that could influence voter decisions, such as third-party candidates, emerging issues, or new developments in either campaign.

6. Polling Dynamics: The reliance on the idea that a small percentage shift can tip the balance does not account for potential inaccuracies or changes in polling data leading up to the election. Polls can be volatile and influenced by many factors not accounted for in the argument.

R86 What's your true motivation in these discussions? Truth be told, you write (sound) like an A.I. bot commissioned by the oil company-funded social media campaign to pull the plug on government (it's a thing).

6. Yes a small shift in the polls may not make a difference. But, oh, the small lead of Trump over Biden in swing states as currently measured in polls is rock-solid proof Biden will lose. Really? Again, what's your endzone? What do you mean to accomplish?

This just in . . .

NY Post, r88? Quel surprise.

The NYP rocks!

R87

A campaign that refuses to acknowledge these complexities and dismisses all criticism is likely to miss important signals and opportunities for improvement. Critically evaluating and addressing flaws in the argument is essential for adapting strategies and effectively reaching voters. Ignoring opposing viewpoints not only undermines the credibility of the campaign but also risks alienating undecided voters who seek a balanced and reasoned approach. In a democratic process, engaging with and addressing criticism is vital for maintaining trust and building a broad coalition of support.

Dismissal of criticism is not only a strategic error but also a sign of ethical dishonesty and latent authoritarianism. When a campaign or individual refuses to engage with opposing viewpoints and shuts down dissent, it reveals an unwillingness to adhere to democratic principles of open debate and accountability. This behavior indicates a preference for controlling the narrative rather than confronting uncomfortable truths, which is inherently dishonest. Furthermore, such an approach mirrors authoritarian tendencies where criticism is viewed as a threat to power rather than an opportunity for growth and improvement. By ignoring legitimate concerns and labeling critics as conspirators, the campaign undermines the very foundations of democratic discourse, fostering an environment where only one perspective is allowed to dominate. This not only erodes public trust but also sets a dangerous precedent for governance that is intolerant of dissent and resistant to transparency.

R91 You may find posters here on social media that match your ...um, imagined?... flawed partisans. But that's hardly true in the Biden camp... or even sympathetic pundits like the Obama crew at Pod Save America and adjacent. There is no overconfidence, no rosy glasses. Sorry.

There is, however, a lot of work to do. There is a real need to talk about the policy and impacts of Trump II vs. Biden II. That's my interest.

[quote]By ignoring legitimate concerns

You have *so* many "concerns", r92...it's concerning!

R92 Will you admit your jeremiad here matches the Trump camp more than the Biden camp? Come on, you can do it...

R95 While the dismissal of criticism is a flaw that can be found in both parties, it poses a greater risk to Biden’s campaign because the burden on him is to secure reelection. Biden's supporters who refuse to acknowledge any criticism or dissent fail to address legitimate concerns about his leadership, thereby missing crucial opportunities to connect with and reassure undecided voters. This refusal to accept criticism or admit any faults not only alienates potential supporters but also reinforces a narrative of denial and deflection. Instead of addressing the real issues that contribute to Biden’s unpopularity, his advocates often shift the blame to external factors, such as media bias or misinformation, which further distances the candidate from the electorate. By not taking responsibility and failing to engage with voter concerns honestly, Biden's campaign risks appearing out of touch and incapable of self-improvement, thereby diminishing his chances of winning over the crucial swing voters needed for reelection.

[quote] but he'll be able to either pardon himself or have the "Justice" department vacate his conviction.

Not in NY or GA, he can't.

I try reading r96's posts but all I get from them is the adult voices in a Peanuts cartoon.

[quote]Biden's supporters who refuse to acknowledge any criticism or dissent fail to address legitimate concerns about his leadership, thereby missing crucial opportunities to connect with and reassure undecided voters.

The greater "concern" is a real popular movement that doesn't give a fuck about the US Constitution. Last try: the "Big Tent" of Biden's supporters are hugely critical of Joe. From Gaza to inflation to not doing executive orders about the border crisis, there is loud and explicit "concerns" expressed among Democrats. If you deny this, you aren't paying attention. Or even better, direct your careful speech to those concerns. There is nothing but hand-wringing in Biden camp, you'd like it. Join us Pookie, the world is an oyster ready to be choked on.

R99 Pivoting the argument to focus on esoteric issues like the Constitution, while important, overlooks the real, everyday concerns that most voters find more critical. Voters are primarily worried about tangible issues that directly impact their lives, such as the economy, healthcare, education, and public safety. By concentrating on abstract constitutional debates, the campaign risks alienating voters who feel their immediate needs and struggles are being ignored. This disconnect can create a perception that the campaign is out of touch with the realities faced by ordinary people, who are looking for concrete solutions to their problems rather than lofty legal principles. Addressing the bread-and-butter issues that resonate with the electorate is essential for building a broad and engaged voter base. Ignoring these in favor of more theoretical discussions only serves to widen the gap between the campaign and the very people it seeks to win over.

"esoteric issues like the Constitution..."

We have seen the core of you, ok. No more need to respond.

A tidal wave approaches the restaurant on the shore. R100 wants us to wipe the tables clean and light the candles.

R99, just put a sock in it. Dems have always been like this. They will rally around Biden since his opponent is a crazy, would-be Hitler who wants to be a dictator more than he wants his Big Mac.

Kids, read R100 (and his other posts). This is what A.I. sounds like.

Oops meant that for r100.

R103 The failure to recognize that everything in this thread was written by ChatGPT, despite clear references from the start, merely reinforces the narrative of Biden supporters' obliviousness to a world they no longer understand or care to engage with. This oversight highlights a broader issue of being disconnected from emerging technologies and modern modes of communication, which is symptomatic of a campaign and supporter base that may be out of touch with contemporary realities. It exemplifies a lack of adaptability and awareness and not only undermines its credibility but also suggests a reluctance to engage with and understand new paradigms, further distancing Biden's campaign from the electorate it needs to reach.

Or, in the voice of a sassy black woman

Alright, sugar, let’s get real. The fact that y’all didn’t catch that everything here was ChatGPT’s handiwork, despite it being mentioned over and over, just screams how out of touch Biden’s supporters are. Living in their own little fantasy world, not even caring to keep up with how folks are talking these days. This isn’t just a slip-up; it’s a neon sign flashing “oblivious!” Baby, if you can’t recognize what’s right under your nose, how are you supposed to connect with voters who live and breathe in the digital age? It’s like they’re ignoring the whole modern world, thinking they can just coast on old-school charm. Newsflash, sweetie, the game has changed, and you’re looking like you’re still playing checkers while everyone else moved on to 3D chess. This kind of cluelessness makes the campaign look straight-up outdated and, frankly, a bit clueless. Time to wake up and smell the Wi-Fi, darling, because the future isn’t waiting for anyone, especially not the out-of-touch!

He must have promised her Secretary of State.

I want to rip that flag pin off her lapel, r107.

…and three posts in a row that I can’t see because they’re trolls. Go fuck yourselves back to Daily Caller.

Why are you all arguing with an AI bot ?

R109 Alright, listen up, honey. I had to block y’all because you just couldn’t stop yapping about how pollsters are undercounting Democratic voters. Really? We’ve got rock-solid evidence from 2016 and 2020 showing the exact opposite—Democratic voters were overcounted, boo! Yet, you kept on with the same tired line like a broken record. Snap, snap, snap in a Z formation! If you can’t deal with the facts, you’re just wasting everyone’s time. Clinging to that busted narrative? Uh-uh, not on my watch. Y’all anre ignoring the real issues and dragging down the conversation, so I had to block y’all. Ain’t nobody got time for that kind of denial. Wake up and smell the reality, bitch! Get it together!

[quote]Y’all anre ignoring the real issues and dragging down the conversation, so I had to block y’all.

Yeah, that sounds like a great strategic plan.

Your loss, R109.

R112 A strategic plan, you say? How utterly quaint and delightfully naive. It’s positively charming that you think a strategic plan is suddenly essential at this juncture. Clearly, the Biden campaign must believe they can simply wave a magic wand or cast a spell to make everyone flock to the polls and vote for him on Election Day. One would almost think they’re relying on fairy dust and unicorns instead of actual, tangible strategy. Oh, the innocence! It’s as if they believe the mere mention of Biden’s name will enchant the masses into a voting frenzy. How precious, truly.

[quote]In the tone of Endora from Bewitched

Another great strategic plan.

You can always tell when the Russian bots and their American acolytes are posting here…it starts to smell of unwashed bodies and cheap cigarettes. Poor hygiene is ingrained into their culture.

R116 Comrade, dismissing all criticism by labeling critics as “Russian bots” is a simplistic and reductionist approach that fails to engage with the substantive issues at hand. Such a tactic undermines the very principles of dialectical materialism, which calls for a rigorous and critical examination of all perspectives. By resorting to ad hominem attacks, you ignore the underlying socio-political and economic contradictions that fuel legitimate criticisms of the Biden administration. Instead of deflecting, it is essential to confront these critiques head-on and analyze them within the context of class struggle and power dynamics. Only through thorough and honest engagement can we hope to advance our understanding and effect meaningful change. Let us not fall into the trap of bourgeois liberalism, which seeks to silence dissent rather than address its root causes.

R22 Comrade, your argument reflects a superficial understanding of the structural issues at play within the current political framework. The question of who could replace Biden on short notice presupposes that the existing bourgeois democratic system operates on the basis of individual leadership rather than collective action and systemic change. This line of thinking perpetuates the great man theory of history, which Marxist analysis fundamentally rejects.

To claim that no one can replace Biden and that his cabinet is sufficiently competent ignores the deeper, systemic failures that his administration represents. Biden himself embodies the neoliberal status quo, which prioritizes capitalist interests over the needs of the proletariat. The notion that his administration's competency can simply be supplemented by his cabinet members overlooks the reality that these individuals are also products of the same capitalist structures and ideologies.

Moreover, the argument fails to recognize the potential for a transformative shift that could arise from within the working class and progressive movements. The entrenched belief in the indispensability of a single leader is a diversion from the collective power of the masses to enact substantial change. Therefore, rather than clinging to a faltering leadership, we should advocate for a radical rethinking of our political strategy that centers on building a unified, class-conscious movement capable of challenging and ultimately dismantling the capitalist structures that perpetuate inequality and exploitation.

In conclusion, the insistence on Biden's irreplaceability is a manifestation of bourgeois ideology that obstructs the path to true revolutionary change. It is imperative to move beyond the individualistic focus and towards a collective, systemic transformation driven by the proletariat.

R22 Listen here, and listen well. You say no one can replace Biden on short notice, and that we should just accept what we've got. Well, I may be a poor woman, but I still have my dignity, and you can never take that away from me. We deserve better than being told to settle for a leader who's out of touch with the struggles we face every day.

You talk about his cabinet being competent, but competence ain't worth a hill of beans if it doesn't come with compassion and a real understanding of what ordinary folks are going through. The problems we face aren't just about who sits in the Oval Office; they're about the whole system that's been ignoring us for far too long. Biden may have some folks who know their way around a policy paper, but that's not the same as knowing what it's like to live paycheck to paycheck, or not knowing how you're going to pay for your kid’s next meal.

And let me tell you, saying we can't find anyone better is just an excuse to keep things the same. There are plenty of good, strong people out there who understand our pain and would fight for us if given the chance. It’s not about one person; it’s about a movement, about bringing together all the folks who’ve been left behind and giving them a voice. I may be a poor woman, but I still have my dignity, and you can never take that away from me.

So no, I won’t stop demanding better. I may not have power or wealth, but I've got my pride and my voice, and I’ll use them to stand up for what’s right. We need someone who truly understands us, and I won't settle for less just because the establishment says so.

R117 you stink too.

So few pearls of wisdom in this thread and so many clutched pearls.

R91/R92/R96/R100 was a very obvious A.I. I blocked “it” and I suggest you do as well.

R122 Blocking all dissent, Dr. Brewster? Really? As the new administrator at Southwest General and a woman who has endured a lifetime of male chauvinism, including your own lecherous behavior, I understand the importance of standing up to power and speaking the truth. Silencing opposing views doesn’t make them disappear; it just forces them underground where they fester.

By blocking dissent, you're not protecting Biden or the campaign; you're weakening it. A campaign that can’t withstand criticism can’t improve. Constructive criticism points out flaws and areas for improvement. Ignoring it means missing out on growth opportunities.

Your insistence on blocking all dissent is reminiscent of your dismissive attitude toward women. It contradicts the principles of democracy and freedom. Respecting and engaging with differing opinions makes us stronger. It shows confidence in our beliefs and openness to other perspectives.

As a feminist who has fought for respect in a male-dominated field like hospital administration, I can tell you that stifling dissent only perpetuates the status quo. We need to listen to all voices, especially those that challenge us, to create a just society. Blocking dissent is the wrong path. Democracy thrives on dialogue, not silence.

So, Dr. Brewster, instead of relying on outdated, chauvinistic methods, let’s uphold equality, respect, and open dialogue to advance our cause and build a better future for everyone.

By not taking responsibility and failing to engage with voter concerns honestly, Biden's campaign risks appearing out of touch and incapable of self-improvement, thereby diminishing his chances of winning over the crucial swing voters needed for reelection.

Speak of the devil

R122 is right. That’s not a real person. It’s some moron cutting and pasting AI shit. Get ready, this is what the trolls will do. They are trying to get Joe booted from the ballot because Joe already beat Dump before and he’s the only candidate who has.

That was four years ago, R125.

Look how severely Biden has deteriorated since.

And the American people are being asked to re-elect him for another four years?

R126, keep trying.

Bill Maher notes how severely Biden has deteriorated.

“I’m nervous about saying anything against Biden, because I feel as though – not that I have so much power, and you have some more than I do, obviously – but are you afraid that you might, you know, influence the people who are on the fence?” co-host Joy Behar asked Maher.

“I think you lose all credibility,” Maher replied. “I do. My bond with my audience has always been I don’t pull a punch. My bond with my audience is you’re not going to like everything I say but you know I’m saying what I really think is true.”

Maher noted that Biden may only be a few years older than former President Trump, but acts like he’s much older.

“I saw him yesterday making that speech,” Maher said. “I mean, I’m sorry, he’s cadaver-like.”

When Behar pushed back, “but his brain is good, he’s still great,” Maher compared Biden to the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who was criticized by Democrats for not resigning at a time she could have been replaced when a Democratic president was in office.

“When I came back from the strike in September I said he should get out,” Maher said. “Because he’s just lost the faith of people. It’s not fair. He’s actually done a pretty good job, but I said he’s going to be ‘Ruth Bader Biden’ is the term I used. Ruth Bader Ginsburg, she stayed too long at the fair.”

Later in the same segment, Maher objected to an earlier comment from Behar when she had suggested that Trump supporters “might as well put a swastika” on their MAGA hats.

“I’m not going to defend Donald Trump ever, but I would never say that we should put the swastika on the cap because I think you can hate Donald Trump, you can’t hate everybody who likes him. It’s half the country. I don’t want to live in that country, I don’t want to live in the country where I hate half the country – and I don’t hate half the country,” he said.

For a party that seemingly hates the constitution, they are holding on to the electoral college for dear life. It’s comical, obvious, and pathetic.

R127 . . .

R128, once Repukes took control of the Senate, there were no options but to keep Ginsberg on the court. Whatever, it’s all water under the bridge. And if Maher thinks Biden is more demented than Dump, he should look in the mirror. These guys are trying to drum up drama for ratings and attention. Joe may not be what he was, but he is doing a great job, and that’s all I care about. .

R131 except Obama asked RBG to retire in the two years before the Democrats lost Senate control.

RBG did not care, just as Biden does not care. It is only about himself.

Bill Maher is a dope smoking crackpot…he’s a poseur who thinks he’s a provocateur.

When all of the sources posted on the thread are NY Post articles, that tells you all you need to know.

[quote]Trump can't win

Hmm, that sounds familiar.

Where have I heard that before, Huma?

Are these trolls Log Cabin Republicans or what?

Biden's cabinet is competent enough and don't have to worry about Biden selling intel to the highest bidder and Biden will listen to his advisors. The most dangerous thing about Trump was his treasonous dealings and chaotic WH and his refusal to heed advice from his cabinet, who knew far more than he did. The stories about his tenure are crazy.

[quote]just as Biden does not care. It is only about himself.

That sounds familiar.

The Daily Show searched for a Biden supporter.

“Not so excited,” one voter told Iwata about her enthusiasm for supporting Biden in November’s presidential election.

“I mean, he’s okay,” another voter said, managing to cite Biden’s love of ice cream as a positive aspect to the president.

“I wish I was more excited,” another voter said, adding he’s at a “two or three” on a scale of one to 10 for his enthusiasm for backing Biden.

OP hopes we will be complacent and not vote-fuck you OP

He gets worse by the day.

Exactly r140. The trolls don’t get it. We might grouse a bit, but when it comes to making sure Dump is not elected, we will come out and vote.

Still *more* NY Post, r141? Your trolling totally lacks finesse.

I don’t see r141. Troll alert!

You’re such a bore, R143.

Your grousing doesn't help one bit, r142.

[quote]You’re such a bore, [R143].

Don't like being exposed as a troll, r145?

“President Joe Biden repeatedly had to ask for stage directions during a press conference with Kenyan President William Ruto Thursday where he appeared stunned by TV reporters who shouted questions to him at the end.

'Is that it?' Biden asked at one point during the proceedings, as reporters from U.S. and Kenyan media asked questions to each leader in a pre-cooked format. 'What was my question?' Biden asked a U.S. reporter who asked a long inquiry to Biden and Ruto at the same time.

'Sir, your question was Haiti,' the reporter told him at the first press conference in a month for the 81-year-old president.

Biden brought down the hammer when the first reporter he called on from a prepared list tried to ask him a pair of questions: one on Haiti, and another an International Criminal Court warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

'One question,' Biden intoned, although the reporter tried for two anyway.“

Can you just imagine the White House staff holding their breath when Joe steps out to debate Trump.

The last time even Julian Castro was able to nail him.

[quote]Can you just imagine the White House staff holding their breath when Joe steps out to debate Trump.

No.

R149, At the insistence of the Biden campaign, the two candidates will be seated so Joe will not have to walk out to a podium.

[quote] At the insistence of the Biden campaign, the two candidates will be seated so Joe will not have to walk out to a podium.

That's a pretty big admission of Joe's deteriorated condition

Take that, AOC.

Biden and Trump will run neck and neck right up to the election. There are millions of voters on the fence. All it will take for some of the more single issue voters is for something to happen that confirms their suspicions and that gets publicized widely on social media and the general Media. Something like a pedophile ring ran by a Trans person or POC unjustly killed by police. Also there is immigration, the Bird Flu thing, the Ukraine, North Korea, Iran, Israel and global warming. Any missteps by Biden, Trump will pounce on. It. Our only hope is that Trump's cardiovascular health is much poorer than Biden's based on his BMI. I am thinking that he is not the type to abruptly change his diet or exercise habits. Individuals like him have a limited life span. Personally I'm waiting for the results of the election to make my decision about starting to take social security, if Trump wins in November I will file the next day.

He ain't ever winning shit again, except maybe occasionally at bingo in prison.

I would love to see him lose his Secret Service protection, leaving him vulnerable to the public.

I have to admit that if Trump loses I hope the MAGA crazies try to pull another insurrection and the government is ready for them will a huge faction of military fire power. I wouldn't cry if some of them ended up dead all over the country. I would say it would be great if all their leaders and mouthpieces got dealt with (if you get my drift), but I well know that when things get rough that bunch will all go into hiding and end up claiming they had nothing to do with it.

The Red Guard is so bloodthirsty today

Keep in mind, if that fat fuck is found guilty in his criminal trial next week or soon after he may just loose what little is left of his fucking mind and goad his insane followers into a full fledged government take down attempt again. Trump may not even make it to any debates. He just may end up a blubbering mess under the care of medical professionals. At this point he's a hair's breadth away from full on psychotic lunatic in a padded cell.

Have you noticed how much of the datalounge 2024 campaign planning involves fantasy ?

As opposed to Trump taking about a United Reich and Dictatorship Day One and accusing Biden of trying to assassinate him. But Datalounge is fantasy land? Sure, Jan.

[quote]Also there is immigration, the Bird Flu thing, the Ukraine, North Korea, Iran, Israel and global warming

Yes R160 there is a component of Datalounge that reminds me of people who are certain the Rapture will happen in their lifetime and they will be saved, or Mormons who think wearing magic underwear protects them.

Look at poor r157 /r159.

R157/ R159,

R154… that’s the nature of every presidential election where the incumbent is running. Everyone forgets about 2012, when Obama was not popular and faced many more critical issues than Biden faces now. We are running against an insurrectionist and general all-around piece of shit, not even Romney. Geez, even 9/11, which was the biggest crisis of our century, gave Bush a boost.

But Obama was a young energetic candidate who inspired people and made them feel optimistic. As did Bill Clinton in 1996.

Perhaps the keys Democrats should have thought about that before hitching themselves to Baby Prunes.

Trump can't win if he's dead.

CNN distressed by Bronx rally

R167 those were not Bronx residents.

CNN ratings are horrific. They’re trying to do anything to drum up viewers. I’m sure some of the 15 percent of Republicans in the Bronx showed up but no way on this planet is Dump winning NY. He just needed his adoration fix.

[quote][ The country's future- our entire democracy- sits on the frail shoulders of an 82-yr. old man. How did this happen? I

It happened because younger people, especially those who are progressive, refuse to vote, especially in primaries. You get the government you deserve.

Again, Trump's lead at this point is possibly meaningless.

More promising news.

Analysts from Israeli tech company Cyabra, which uses a subset of artificial intelligence called machine learning to identify fake accounts, found that 15% of X accounts praising former President Donald Trump and criticizing President Joe Biden are fake.

As are 100% of Datalounge posts doing the same.

The fake Twitter accounts and AI trolls on Datalounge don’t vote.

Will someone please message Tom Bonier and tell that Biden ties with Trump if he loses Nebraska 2 which he only won by 20,000 votes, and a tie hands the election to Trump?

Also tell him that no one will save him.

BIDEN WILL LOSE AND YOU QUEENS JUST NEED TO DEAL WITH IT!!!!!!

The only way this country can move on is for Trump to lose. Americans (and much of the rest of the world) has had enough of this venomous angry man.

The rightwing is celebrating today because they say 100,000 people turned up in the Bronx for a Trump rally.

The truth: 3,200.

Typical Trump supporter lies. And CNN fell for it.

CNN has become an embarrassment. My feeling is they should return to their roots. Breaking news, and perhaps intelligent discussions of the issues of the day.

R179, MSNBC is much more of an embarrassment.

It’s like 911 everyday with Trump on the loose.

With that mic drop title the writer has got to be a millennial. Where does it say CNN gave such a number?

Hours ago I only saw the reporter say "Well certainly a bigger crowd than I think Democrats would like to see, particularly given this is one of the bluest counties in the entire country. "

[quote]The only way this country can move on is for Trump to lose.

He'll run again in 2028. He's making too much money on this grift to let it go.

I always believed that,will run in 2028 if no win but this prick could win this year,oy

[quote]CNN distressed by Bronx rally

They needn't be.

Most of those rally attendees were likely from Staten Island or some of the other MAGA areas. And of course his nutcase groupies that follow him around like the Grateful Dead.

Shame on CNN for implying that this is some kind of sign that NY will go for Trump.

[bold]Elon Musk Ramps Up Anti-Biden Posts on X[/bold]

Last month, Elon Musk posted on the social platform X that President Joe Biden “obviously barely knows what’s going on.”

“He is just a tragic front for a far left political machine,” Musk wrote. It was the 29th time this year that he had posted about the president on X, formerly known as Twitter, which Musk bought in 2022.

Musk has steadily ramped up his criticism of Biden as the campaign season heats up before the November presidential election. Musk has posted about Biden on X at least seven times a month since January, attacking the president for everything from his age to his policies on immigration and health. Before that, he posted about Biden twice in December and not at all in November, according to a New York Times analysis. In all, Musk had posted nearly 40 times about Biden this year, compared with about 30 times for all of last year.

In contrast, Musk had posted more than 20 times on X this year about former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee. In those posts, Musk defended Trump, arguing that he is a victim of media and prosecutorial bias in the criminal cases that the former president faces.

Musk’s posts about this year’s presidential race stand out because he is signaling a willingness to tip the political scales as the owner of an influential social media platform, something that no other leader of a social media firm has done. And Musk exerts outsize influence over the political discourse on X, where he regularly posts to his 184 million followers...

R187 This just makes me want to vote for Biden even more. Elon Fuck has proven himself to be a colossal idiot.

Good for you r188! Elon will be crushed.

[quote] he is signaling a willingness to tip the political scales as the owner of an influential social media platform

Where has ELon interred with those remaining few who still like Cadaver Joe?

[quote]Women are still pissed about abortion. Don't underestimate that.

This is a huge false sense of security. I'm unfortunately in Texas where many women (evangelicals, Catholic Hispanics) most assuredly are OVER THE MOON about Roe being overturned.

R185, The permit was only for 3,500 and there were thousands more in the overflow area.

R192

[quote]He'll run again in 2028. He's making too much money on this grift to let it go.

Even if he's still alive then, his situation isn't going to improve. He'll likely be convicted of at least some of the charges in his other cases, his apparent dementia isn't going to get better, and he'll become increasingly irrelevant. Add in the stink of two-time loser and his support outside of MAGAworld will continue to drop. This is his last viable shot.

R194, Trump would be 82 in 2028.

[quote] Elon will be crushed.

He and Trump will both be come election day.

Elon Musk grows more repellent evert day, which, given that he's already incredibly repellent, is quite a feat.

MSNBC surprised

NBC News reporter Dasha Burns said multiple Black and Hispanic voters offered surprising responses when she brought up past “offensive” comments made by Donald Trump while she attended his Thursday Bronx rally.

Trump’s decision to campaign in the Bronx surprised some pundits and lawmakers as the area overwhelmingly supports Democrats. Burns joined MSNBC’s Ana Cabrera on Friday though and said “a lot” of the people she spoke to at the rally were from the Bronx and they were strong supporters of the former president.

“When you talk to immigrants that are going to these Trump rallies, they agree with his message on immigration,” she said.

Most voters, Burns added, are most concerned with the border and the effects of inflation.

MSNBC aired interviews with two Black Trump supporters at the rally, one of whom argued President Joe Biden disrespected Black voters with his declaration that “you ain’t Black” if you don’t vote for him. Biden made the comment in an interview with Charlamagne tha God, and he’s since apologized.

“Multiple people actually mentioned that Charlamagne tha God interview. I did press back with some of those folks, mentioning some of Trump’s rhetoric that’s been seen as racist and bigoted, they said they don’t have a problem with that,” Burns said. “They view his actions over his words in terms of what they feel he can do for their community.”

. . .

^*Oh, the pretzels they have to twist themselves into to make their “support” make any sense (which it doesn’t at all).

Let me remind everyone, since a lot of MAGATs live on these threads. If someone is saying Dems should dump Joe, they are closet MAGATs. No ifs ands or buts. Dump would be dancing in the streets if the Dems got rid of Joe. Why the effort to portray Joe as feeble, when their own candidate has exhibited extremely poor mental capabilities? That’s because they need to dump Joe in order to have any chance of winning.

So remember—if they want to dump Joe, they really are working on behalf of Dump. I’ve blocked all of these posters, so they can scream all they want. But I know they’re all supporting Dump.

Quite a few MAGAts have discovered DL after someone posted a link on a Marjorie Taylor Greene fan page on Facebook.

^ oh great, that ugly ape ruins everything she touches.

This is concrete proof that Truml will win. The delusion is so strong. Biden should be in attack mode 24/7...but he is Biden with his inept gang of Centrist Democrats.

R201

Well, r204...if you say so.

R204, the attention span of Americans being what it is, going into all-out attack mode now, so removed from when voting begins, doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Exactly r207. It’s fucking May.

Except r208 it’s almost June. Then it will be almost July and then almost August. The bar will get lower and lower and lower.

[quote]The bar will get lower and lower and lower.

That metaphor doesn't mean what you think it does.

Well OP the DL said he couldn't win in 2016 & laughed all the way thru the year.

True r211, but that was 8 years ago and he’s won shit since.

Because r212 there has only been one election since then. You know who else only won one election in the past 8 years? Biden!

These people will never accept that they themselves are responsible for sending the country back into Trump.

R213, willfully ignorant of all the Trump-endorsed candidates in contested, battleground, states who have went down to crushing defeat.

Exactly r214. Block r213, it’s a closet Dumper. They want Biden off the ticket so that Dump will be re-elected.

I love how r214 exists in a vacuum where news like this never reaches him

Or this

Yep R214, here in Nevada just about all of the election denying lunatics lost in 2022 (at least the national candidates, I think there were counties where the nuts did get elected). But the MAGAts on DL are trying SOOOOOOO hard to convince us that Trump is some kind of great winner.

Let’s bring up Nevada, says local idiot

“And in Nevada, where Biden is struggling against Trump, Rosen has split with Biden on everything from environmental and mining regulations to solar tariffs. She said in a statement she hasn’t “been afraid to break with my own party to do what is right for my state.”

Creating distance from an embattled president is not a new tactic, but it’s always harder in years when the White House is on the ballot. Plus, most of the Senate GOP’s candidates are political novices with no voting record to create a clear contrast. Democratic incumbents, on the other hand, spent two years in a 50-50 majority where unity was paramount, leaving them with lots of votes supporting Biden’s position.”

[R192] LOL!!!! NYP who's owned by Murdoch. 10,000? Yeah. More like 1,000. He brought white people into his "rally" and paid them $300 a piece.

Polls? Worthless. This is 2024 not 1994. Asking maybe 1,000 people out of 300,000,000 people???? Landlines? My cell phone doesnt recognise a number? Straight to spam. Last time I did a poll it was Nielsen twenty years ago or more. Polling people outside a polling place? People LIE. A REAL poll would be publishing names of people now. That will never happen. Once upon a time people were more honest. Now since IQ45? Honesty has left the building.

Women will win the election for Biden. THAT is a fact. Take away Woman's rights? Not happening.

Here in Louisiana our Dictator Landry(Gov) is removing all Women's and minority rights and he's hopefully removing Gay rights. This MF is posting Torah(ten commandments) in public schools of course not realizing that there's actually 613 commandments. Hes destroying everything our former Democratic Gov did. Including rebuilding the coast. Because he's anti science, anti vax, anti Covid(just the Flu). Hell he's against damn near everything to help one of the worst states in the US. And of course card carrying member of the IQ45 Cult. He is evil and cruel. And no I won't leave. We need people like me voting against this shit.

You want someone like my Governor? Then vote for insane IQ45.

"Louisiana Senate passes bill that would let parents use tax money to pay for private school." "Louisiana Senate approves bill that would take away required breaks for minors." "Louisiana Legislature sends discriminatory 'Don’t Say Gay' bill to Gov. Landry for signature." "Louisiana governor signs bill making two abortion drugs controlled dangerous substances."

[quote]Women will win the election for Biden. THAT is a fact.

“But some of the sharpest declines have occurred among large categories of voters that either favored Biden in 2020 or moved in a Democratic direction that year.

Among them: moderates, suburbanites and women.

…

Gender: Biden’s ratings have slipped more among women than men. They have slipped more among non-college women than women with college degrees. And they have slipped far more among rural women than urban or suburban women. Biden had a rating of plus 16 among rural women in the fall of 2020, but a rating of minus 22 over the last six months — a drop in his net rating of 38 points.

…

Women will not save you. No one will save you.

R221

How's the weather in St. Petersburg today???? MAGA TROLL......................................................

Your PROJECTION OF TRUMP is accurate..... "Women will not save you. No one will save you."

BIDEN/HARRIS 2024

R222 I’m not even sure he knows it’s 2024.

He's a raving lunatic and anyone who votes for him is similar.

You. can mentally divorce yourself from them all you want r224

What ever helps

Because

r221 iss...potato.

I am a woman and I'm not voting for Biden. The Democrats use abortion as a carrot but won't do anything about it. They can't do anything anyway now that it has gone to the States. And Biden is tied to the whole trans bullshit. He isn't doing enough to stop people from coming over the border. I'm writing in JKRowling. But I live in the bluest state in the nation so it won't matter how I vote. I am voting blue on all down ballots. Hopefully, the Democrats will win the House and Senate and that will render the orange menace a lame-duck president.

[quote]I am a woman and I'm not voting for Biden.

And I am Marie of Romania.

You aren't very good at this, r227.

I am beautiful woman of Democracy and I much fear son will transition to girl power if Biden is re-elected. Abortion bothers me some little but not enough to ever vote for him because trans frighten me and babushka too much! Trump strong like bull and make me have wet snack cake so must only vote for him!

Iz true, fellow gay democracies!

[quote] I am a woman

Go to bed and sober up, Defucktard.

[quote] I am a woman and I'm not voting for Biden.

Based on his speech at West Point today, you may not have to worry about that.

R22y. There aren’t enough laughing emojis to reply to your hilarious post. But I will try. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣.

I’m a woman and I’m not voting for Biden. When my husband tells me I’m a piece of shit, I agree with him. We need strong men to control us because we aren’t intelligent enough to do it ourselves.

[quote] I’m a woman and I’m not voting for Biden.

Cro-Marge, are you sure you're a woman? You do have a clenis, after all.

The first inch or two you really can’t even tell the difference.

I don't give a shit if you believe me or not. I cannot believe gay people are so pro-trans when trans women are mostly straight and homophobic. I also live in CA which means I don't have to vote because CA is true blue. In CA you can lose your kids if you don't put them on hormones when the kid says they are trans. Most women are not as concerned about abortion as I would have thought. I was a second-wave feminist in the 70s and am shocked at how little women care about losing abortion. Most women can still obtain abortions if they do it early. You can now get abortion pills over the counter in certain states and we are sending them to women who need them in states that don't allow abortion. Which is why they are trying to get the pills off the market.

R237 you are way off. Way, way off. All of my female friends are older and can’t even have kids, but they are furious about this. I think you perhaps live in a teeny bubble.

. . .

R237 I live in CA too, and there are a lot of Republicans who have won in certain counties and serve in the US congress. These people vote on issue which affect the whole country. Don't forget that former speaker, Kevin McCarthy, is from CA.

[quote] Joe Biden makes surprise nighttime visit to Hunter’s ex Hallie Biden days before she testifies in first son’s gun trial

Delivering her script and the check

We got it, r239, we got it. You and the NY Post have totally convinced us to vote for Trump.

[quote] Most women can still obtain abortions if they do it early. You can now get abortion pills over the counter in certain states and we are sending them to women who need them in states that don't allow abortion.

and you think that is going to stay the same once Trump wins?

R239 is a Dumper. Block and tell them to fuck off.

R239 These right-wing rags continuously post photos of Hunter trying to destroy him, but they only remind me how much hotter he is than Don Jr and Eric.

As most humble housewife of Nebraska Oblast I am most certainly Democrat of female construction and am not to be voting for sleepy Joe this October. For Democrats are most happy to be in beds with radical socialist drug-ingesting sharia law trans ladyboys who threaten wholesome American values.

Jill Biden is “live” on “The View” tomorrow(Wednesday).

[quote] Jill Biden is “live” on “The View” tomorrow(Wednesday).

It’s okay. She’s no Mrs. Wilson, so the people actually in charge at the White House will still be there to handle Joe’s responsibilities.

One adviser to major Democratic Party donors provided a running list that has been shared with funders of nearly two dozen reasons why Biden could lose, ranging from immigration and high inflation to the president’s age, the unpopularity of Vice President Kamala Harris and the presence of third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

“Donors ask me on an hourly basis about what I think,” the adviser said, calling it “so much easier to show them, so while they read it, I can pour a drink.”

The adviser added, “The list of why we ‘could’ win is so small I don’t even need to keep the list on my phone.”

Well, well, my darlings. The Democratic Party is in quite the kitty-cat conundrum over Biden's reelection chances. Once as confident as a cat with cream, now they're trembling like a mouse in a lion's den. The claws are out because Biden's polling is in the litter box, and Trump's fundraising haul is purring along like a well-fed feline.

Trump is prowling into Democratic territories, and those once-safe blue states are starting to look like his new scratching posts. High inflation, Biden's age, and an unpopular VP have the Democrats hissing and spitting. Despite the campaign's best efforts to land on their feet with battleground strategies, there's a palpable sense of doom that even the bravest alley cats are whispering about.

The stakes are as high as a cat on a hot tin roof, with democracy itself hanging in the balance. Biden's team is trying to show off their sharp claws and fancy footwork, but the fear of a Trump comeback has them all feeling like a kitten caught in a rainstorm. It’s a feline frenzy out there, my darlings, and nobody wants to be left holding the empty catnip bag.

[quote] “The list of why we ‘could’ win

#1 Joe's uncle captured the Kaiser at the Alamo and Beau died raising the flag over Mount Suribachi

R251, If one of those cannibals confesses.

The trolls should just fuck off. I’m seeing one post for every three-four posts. No one is listening to you.

And now he's a CONVICTED FELON.

Independent voters have made it clear they won't vote for a convicted felon.

Karl Rove said a conviction would lose them WI, MI and PA.

Tide's turning slowly, but it is turning.

I'm hoping that voters feel the same way that we do, disgusted with Trump. Wake up, America.

To paraphrase Eric Trump, May 30th will be known as the day Biden won the 2024 presidential election.

The key with the verdict is to pin it on the voters rather than Trump. No need to turn him into a martyr attacked by the system. Just ask what kind of person could support a convicted felon. There is genuinely something un-American with these people.

A tale of two electorates.

[quote] The key with the verdict is to pin it on the voters rather than Trump. No need to turn him into a martyr attacked by the system. Just ask what kind of person could support a convicted felon.

I’m predicting the Trump campaign will counter with non-stop reminders of grocery prices. It’s likely to trump everything else. OPEC may also squeeze up oil prices in the fall.

Exodus . . .

Biden is now ahead 50-49 in the dispositive battleground states, with Trump ahead 50-49 nationally. In my perfect world, the one in which the maximum number of MAGA heads explode, Biden would win the Electoral College, with Trump taking the popular vote.

Polls are bullshit.

They're certainly not dispositive this far out, R262, but they're mostly pretty spot-on closer to the election. But it's definitely wise to steer clear of most averages of polls. Those are junk.

[quote] A nearly six in 10 majority of voters say they would favor, in principle, a new government program to deport all undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. illegally.

From the CBS poll. I remember someone recently making a comment on DL as if deportations would be considered a bad thing politically.

R260 That looks like fake Melanie. If that's the real one, she looks different. Maybe she can no longer afford spa treatments.

Of course, the very right-leaning RCP site leads with Trump's less relevant national lead in the new CBS poll.

The CBS poll only did head to head without the third parties, so that’s not helpful, considering they will have a huge impact on the results.

In the likely event a landslide Biden is not in the offing, my puckish wish for an inverse of the 2016 election, with Trump winning the popular vote & the Democrat taking the all-important Electoral College, got some support from an unlikely source, Sean Trende, the Senior Elections Analyst for Real Clear Politics.

R268, I don’t see this happening. Repukes have won the popular vote once in the last 36 years.

That's 32 years, R269. From 1992-2020. We can't yet count this year's results.

Biden will totally embarrass himself in the first debate.

^ How rich, when it is Trump, teleprompter-free, who can't help but appear demented.

R262: They sure are bullshit:

Cohen says Trump directed him to pay for poll rigging.

R270, I was counting from 1988, which was the last time (except for 2004) Repukes won the popular vote.

I got that, R274, but that still is 32 years (1988-2020), not 36 years.

Hah r275 I was including 2024 because… they haven’t won yet. But point taken.

We need to realize he may win.I won’t vote that criminal but he may win and eventually he and his thugs will come for us.

Biden could deteriorate more now Hunter “hot meat”’ behind bars.Were dommed-Even dems don’t want Harris.

R278… you know what.

OP’s post is a rehash of the one DL made about Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The difference, R280, is that Trump has since been the Dems best GOTV. Along with Dobbs.

[quote]I won’t vote that criminal but he may win and eventually he and his thugs will come for us.

Could you be more specific about who you are that they are coming for?

Our Judy albums, Rose.

And so it goes.

"Republicans avoid a disaster in Ohio It should have been a drama-free race.

Instead, the special election for Ohio’s deep-red 6th Congressional District turned out to be something of a nail-biter, with the Democratic candidate far exceeding expectations."

Looking at polls for Pennsylvania and Ohio, Trump beats Biden, but Casey and Brown are ahead for Senate. It may be a year of split tickets, where all the people who won’t vote for Biden sweep Trump to victory but give Democrats good results for Congress.

the economist just came out with a study that says Turmp has a 60 percent chance of winning. they predicted that Biden would have a 97 percent chance of winning in 2020 so. . . .

R286, I look to election results more than oddsmakers.

That orange fool won’t be around in November.

Stop wasting your energy on him. Work instead to elect democrats at every level of government.

We need to wipe these fascist pukes out once and for all. They’re not going to stop, so neither can we.

OP, Your second paragraph ("Of course... ") is beyond absurd.

Another insurrection if Trump loses?? Do you know who would be Commander in Chief of the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and Coast Guard?! The Fascist Hillbillies would be obliterated!

While it's not likely that Trump can get elected, most people also thought so in 2016, until actual election day. A lot can happen in the next 6 months that can change things either way. Keep in mind that one year ago 51% of Republicans said they won't vote for Trump if he is convicted of a crime. After his conviction that number dropped significantly to under 10%. I'm guessing that the actual number that won't vote for him due to being a convicted felon is closer to 1-2% Still if that holds true in the swing states, he has no path using the same electoral college strategy to win.

[quote]I look to election results more than oddsmakers.

Agree with R287. I used to follow an oddsmaker site for the stock market on the weekends but it was never right when the market opened up Monday morning. They are less reliable than the polls.

Bring it on!

[quote] That orange fool won’t be around in November.

Here we go again. 🙄

Southern Baptists oppose the Iranian Volunteer Forces? Good for them.

Echelon, a Republican pollster rated # 22 by 538, found Biden gaining 4 points since their last poll, going from 46-49 to 48-47.

While I certainly hope he doesn't win, I won't be satisfied until he's breathing in the dank air of a prison cell for a long, long time.

Remember all of those pundits on the teevee that said a criminal conviction would boost support for Trump?

I think a lot of the swing is due to Dump’s crazy speeches.. Every single speech has provided sound bites of Dump appearing to be totally loony. He is so unhinged it can’t be hidden. Biden might be getting old, but you don’t see him praising Hannibal Lecter. More than anything, I believe that’s why you’re seeing a swing toward Biden.

Trump is long overdue for the loony bin.

In all honesty, I think Wisconsin is off the table for Trump. With him calling Milwaukee a shithole and the RNC convention in Milwaukee *next month* is just insane. It's like he's trying to lose - which I am very glad about.

Glancing at them just now Trump remains slightly ahead in both the RCP and 538 averages. No significant change since the New York trial began.

Biden was in France for Memorial Day and was standing with about 3 other people and for no apparent reason tried to sit down but there was no chair. He squatted for a moment and finally realized that there wasn't a chair behind him. He almost fell on his ass. He also appeared confused a lot. He fell asleep during speeches. He is so out of it.

His Duh face is more obvious now.

[quote] He squatted for a moment and finally realized that there wasn't a chair behind him.

I interpreted that as him starting to poop himself. Of course he will be dead for years before the staff memoirs clarify the issue one way or the other.

I'd like to see protesters swarm the Republican convention.

Joe is flying directly to California from Italy to attend an Obama/Clooney/Roberts hosted fundraiser..

Service to celebrities always comes first

R302 Isn't it wonderful when the threat of Trump is so great that the Democrats put up a frail elderly man with dire approval ratings to be president for the next four years. All it would have taken is one big name to put a stop to it a year ago by calling on Biden not to run but no one had the courage.

R302, r304 in particular, and r308 must consume and believe a lot of tight wing media. That clip, and others, were edited to remove the people he was interacting with to make it look like Biden was adrift.

Most of the piling on Biden is bitterness mixed with fear of aging. By the numbers, by accomplishments, he is one of our best recent presidents. But Americans get caught up in personality, so they easily dismiss an elderly President who got the country out of a pandemic, passed significant climate, infrastructure, and economic legislation that makes a difference in people’s lives.

R309, I’ve already had those MAGATs blocked. Joe is old, but his actions as president aren’t. On that account, as you show, he’s been stellar. Anyone complaining that Dems should replace him is a Dump supporter. They want to run against anyone but Joe, so they try to sow dissent among us Dems. They’re so transparently stupid.

. . .

NY Post?

Seriously???

[quote] Glancing at them just now Trump remains slightly ahead in both the RCP and 538 averages.

One thing that I have learned is that, whether, particularly, RCP with its heavy inclusion of republican(-leaning) pollsters , or even 538, these polling averages - an historically recent addition to our poll-watching - our not very helpful because, for example, they so often include outliers.

[quote] I’ve already had those MAGATs blocked.

Good advice. I've been pretty miserly about blocking posters, but my patience with these cultists has been exhausted.

They've become so brazen lately, like something snapped in them after Trump was convicted.

[quote] They've become so brazen lately, like something snapped in them after Trump was convicted.

It’s probably Biden’s odd behavior in France and then the freezing episode a few days ago that has triggered additional concern about the president’s age and mental state.

^another MAGAt

r316 Doubtful. Maybe in your deplorable eyes. But thanks for outing yourself so willingly, love blocking new MAGAts. Don't think I didn't notice you WW'ing yourself either.

Sad . . .

Oh, look, another one for the flyswatter. They make it so easy!

If Dump loses, his followers will go nuts-like dozens of mass shootings in liberal cities nuts.

Watch our trolls drop the "Biden is senile and about to die" overnight after he wins in November and switch straight back to more classic culture war issues, to gear up for the next midterms. Maybe even start bashing the prospective 2028 Dem candidates, never too early for that. They never rest.

[quote]They've become so brazen lately, like something snapped in them after Trump was convicted.

They've all been told "they got one of ours, we've gotta get one of theirs." The entire concept of charges based on evidence, actual demonstrable criminal activity, just doesn't register in their damaged peabrains.

Charge the Democrats! Right now!

What shall we charge them with, your majesty?

All the crimes! All of em!

Why don’t we calm down and wait until the debate in less than two weeks? My guess is that it will significant change the race. If Biden performs well, it will shock the people who have let Fox and TikTok convince them that the President is senile. If he performs poorly, the pressure to find another candidate will be deafening.

In the previous Biden/Trump faceoffs, Biden always overperformed expectations. Trump did too, but just in showing how unhinged and angry he is.

Speaking of debates . . .

[quote] If he performs poorly, the pressure to find another candidate will be deafening.

The pattern has been that Democrats have dug in their heels even more with every episode of diminishing mental acuity, so I don’t think Biden’s performance will affect his status as the nominee.

R326, can you give an example of this pattern? What was an episode, then what was the response where Democrats dug in their heels?

Yeah, this thread has acted as a magnet for all the MAGAts, making it so easy to knock them off, one by one. Let them enjoy talking amongst themselves.

I don't think Biden will win but that doesn't make me or anyone else right wing. I get so sick of the constant insistence of agree with me or your right-wing.

There will not be a debate, Trump will back out at the last minute, citing some deep state plot against him.

I’m a psychic and I already know Biden will win. I predicted his 2020 win and was off by one electoral vote.

I've blocked six of you for your fucking paranoia. Your manic phases are especially tedious. Let's hope Biden wins but God forbid we should have a discussion about it. You do realize you're as bad as the MAGAts? Fucktards.

R332, no we are not. Fucktard yourself.

R319 Just another New York Post yellow journalism propaganda article.

[quote] Oh, look, another one for the flyswatter. They make it so easy!

R320 You're in denial. Half of the people who observe that Biden is not fit are willing to vote Democrat. They would still like a candidate who seems capable.

[quote]You're in denial. Half of the people who observe that Biden is not fit are willing to vote Democrat. They would still like a candidate who seems capable.

Sure thing, Yevgeny.

Ah yes, R339, a clip from totally unbiased CNBC.

The first Biden/Trump debate cannot come soon enough.

Careful R337 or you'll be the next announced got with the flyswatter. Can you bear it?

[quote]They would still like a candidate who seems capable.

How has Biden been incapable in the last three and a half years, r337? Who would have done better?

It's optics, you fucking moron.

The country re-elected Bush Jr. How do you rate that presidency?

[quote]I am a woman and I'm not voting for Biden. The Democrats use abortion as a carrot but won't do anything about it. They can't do anything anyway now that it has gone to the States. And Biden is tied to the whole trans bullshit. He isn't doing enough to stop people from coming over the border. I'm writing in JKRowling. But I live in the bluest state in the nation so it won't matter how I vote. I am voting blue on all down ballots. Hopefully, the Democrats will win the House and Senate and that will render the orange menace a lame-duck president.

[quote]I don't give a shit if you believe me or not. I cannot believe gay people are so pro-trans when trans women are mostly straight and homophobic. I also live in CA which means I don't have to vote because CA is true blue. In CA you can lose your kids if you don't put them on hormones when the kid says they are trans. Most women are not as concerned about abortion as I would have thought. I was a second-wave feminist in the 70s and am shocked at how little women care about losing abortion. Most women can still obtain abortions if they do it early. You can now get abortion pills over the counter in certain states and we are sending them to women who need them in states that don't allow abortion. Which is why they are trying to get the pills off the market.

[quote]Biden was in France for Memorial Day and was standing with about 3 other people and for no apparent reason tried to sit down but there was no chair. He squatted for a moment and finally realized that there wasn't a chair behind him. He almost fell on his ass. He also appeared confused a lot. He fell asleep during speeches. He is so out of it.

[quote]I don't think Biden will win but that doesn't make me or anyone else right wing. I get so sick of the constant insistence of agree with me or your right-wing.

Sure, Jan

I'm a black gay guy and I can personally say that Obama did nothing for me, my life only changed a little bit and it was for the worse. Everything is so much better under Trump though. I feel respected - which I never do when democrats are involved.

I'm a black gay guy and I can personally say that Obama did nothing for me, my life only changed a little bit and it was for the worse. Everything is so much better under Trump though. I feel respected - which I never do when democrats are involved.

A bit of context for R346/7 (subtle, perhaps a bit too subtle for DL):

There’s a whole industry out there engaged in spinning polls and shifting expectations to show that Donald Trump is going to win by a massive landslide, sweeping godless woke liberalism out of power in Washington and instituting his long-promised era of vengeance and vindication. Presumably, some of this is harmless hype designed to attract MAGA eyeballs and keep Republican enthusiasm high. The more sinister possibility is that spinmeisters are creating the foundation for another Trump challenge to the outcome if he loses; after all, if you’ve been hearing for months that he’s far ahead, then any adverse vote count has to be “rigged,” right?

Beneath all the noise about Trump riding high is some actual empirical evidence that’s he’s improving on his 2020 performance. That’s most obvious in national popular-vote estimates: Trump lost by 4.5 percent in 2020 and is leading, albeit modestly, in 2024 national polls. But it’s also evident in particular states where he didn’t do well at all last time around. Lately, there’s a lot of buzz about Trump being competitive in supposedly deep-blue Virginia, as The Wall Street Journal reports:

"Whether Virginia backs Donald Trump or Joe Biden shouldn’t even be a discussion.

The state hasn’t backed a Republican for president since George W. Bush in 2004.

But early polls showing Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, cutting into the Democratic president’s lead have served as a wake-up call for Virginia Democrats, who acknowledge headwinds with voters dissatisfied with Biden’s leadership. Republicans say that if Virginia is even remotely on the table for Trump, Biden is in serious trouble in traditional battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania."

Behind this Republican excitement are two polls, one from Fox News in June and another from Roanoke College in May, showing Trump and Biden tied in the Old Dominion. While that’s hardly a big dataset, it is indeed eyebrow-raising: In 2020, all but one public poll of Virginia taken after May showed Biden with a double-digit lead, and he ultimately won by 10 percent. Virginia was also carried by Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and by Hillary Clinton in 2016. So it’s a blue state turning purple, and some would say that has big implications for the rest of the country!

Unfortunately for this take, short-term trends in particular states don’t always mean a lot. I’m old enough to remember that before Obama won Virginia in 2008, the state went Republican for 11 straight presidential elections. It was the only state of the former Confederacy to go against Jimmy Carter twice. Big-time national losers George H.W. Bush (in 1992) and Bob Dole (in 1996) won there. Biden’s double-digit win in 2020, moreover, reflected a fairly sudden Democratic surge: Obama won the state by less than his national popular-vote margin in 2008 and by exactly his national margin in 2012; Clinton won Virginia by a hardly overwhelming 5 percent.

Obviously, if Trump actually wins Virginia, it would be a big deal, putting 13 precious electoral votes he’s never won before into his column. But a tightened margin in any given state really just means the favored party will have to decide whether to put resources there that had been earmarked for states previously thought of as battlegrounds. If there’s a national shift, it’s likely to be reflect in national polls, and there Trump’s lead doesn’t look like the stuff of landslides (0.8 percent in the current RealClearPolitics averages of head-to-head polls).

The evil needs to go, there's too much of it within the Republican party and seems to be contagious.

(cont'd from R349)

The reality is that we may not know what the 2024 battleground landscape will ultimately look like until a lot closer to Election Day. Don’t forget that the identity of the closest states can and does change. Florida was the ultimate battleground state of all time in 2000; now it’s considered reliably red. That’s even truer of Iowa and Ohio; the latter is where the 2004 presidential election was decided, and the former was dead even in 2000 and 2004 before lurching toward Democrats in the two Obama elections and then massively toward Trump in 2016 and 2020. And it’s not just newly red states that have changed complexions: In living memory, New York, California, and Hawaii were presidential battleground states.

Is there a theory as to why Trump might be doing significantly better in Virginia without it necessarily signaling a big national lead? Yes, actually. National polls are showing Trump making gains among young and non-white non-college-educated voters, and Biden making gains among white college-educated voters. This may shift each candidate’s vote share in various states without flipping them, as Sean Trende recently noted:

"One doesn’t have to be gifted with a particularly vigorous imagination to see what could happen here: Trump has substantial improvements among non-white voters, driving gains in some red areas (like Texas) and … but is unable to flip them because the hole with educated whites is just too deep. Then, in relatively white Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan, very little changes."

So the widespread assumption of a built-in Republican advantage in the Electoral College may actually be outmoded. You can’t look at Trump’s small lead in national polls and assume this means he’s far ahead in the race for EVs that really matters, as Trende points out:

"The result could easily be Trump winning the popular vote, but Biden eking out a narrow 270-268 Electoral Vote victory … It’s a really narrow road to victory for the former president right now, but it is also a perfectly plausible path."

So perhaps MAGA folk should hold off on the premature victory celebrations, in Virginia and elsewhere. The shape of the election is still developing.

R349 There is no feasible way for Trump to gain an additional 7 plus million voters since the 2020 election. If anything he has lost some of his base over the last 4 years, not to mention independent voters. Only if Biden loses much more than 7 million voters since 2020 is Trump winning the popular vote possible. The spinners are once again trying to set up the repeat scenario that Trump lost due to rigging the election.

R352, I'm bullish on Biden's chances, but, while I do think there will be a fall-off from some of his previous supporters, the polling does seem to indicate an uptick in Trump support among Latinos & Black men. This could be enough to cost Biden Georgia, Arizona & Nevada, but not Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania (along with Nebraska-2). And, if everything else remains constant, that gets Biden to 270.

Why would anyone vote for Trump? I can't conceive of it.

[quote]Why would anyone vote for Trump? I can't conceive of it.

Because things are sooooo bad under Biden.

^^Sorry, I screwed up that twitter cap. Here it is -- the US is doing far better than Europe, but that's not good enough for Americans.

r356 That's one of those bogus stats that doesn't really mean much, as most of it is tied up in corporations. Show us the income inequality spread instead.

Most GDP figures, however you turn them around, are useless unless you show how the middle class is faring. And in that regard, things are much, much better in Europe. Especially when you take the social safety net and the infrastructure into account as well.

Biden's economy is strong, but he'd need a congressional majority with fewer DINOs in it to affect impactful change for the middle class. Which is gonna be a tall order as deplorables mostly just want revenge.

[quote]Half of the people who observe that Biden is not fit are willing to vote Democrat.

Source: your ass.