JERUSALEM — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing his most challenging political threat since the start of the Israel-Hamas war because of a disagreement among members of his coalition about whether ultra-Orthodox Jews should retain their long-standing exemption from military service.
An unwieldy right-wing alliance of secular and ultra-Orthodox lawmakers, the coalition’s members are divided about whether the state should continue to allow young ultra-Orthodox men to study at religious seminaries instead of serving in the military as most other Jewish Israelis do. If the government abolishes the exemption, it risks a walkout from the ultra-Orthodox lawmakers; if it lets the exemption stand, the secular members could withdraw. Either way, the coalition could collapse.
The situation poses the gravest challenge to Netanyahu’s grip on power since Hamas raided Israel on Oct. 7, prompting Israel to invade Hamas’ stronghold in the Gaza Strip. Criticized by many Israelis for presiding over the October disaster, Netanyahu is trailing in the polls and faces growing calls to resign. But until now, there were few obvious ways in which his coalition might collapse.
The end of the coalition would probably lead to new elections, and polling suggests that Netanyahu would not win.
A new Israeli government led by centrists is unlikely to take a markedly different approach to the war in Gaza, but it may be more open to allowing the Palestinian leadership in the Israeli-occupied West Bank to play a bigger role in Gaza after the war. That arrangement could create a more conducive environment for Israel to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, which had edged closer to sealing diplomatic ties with Israel before the war broke out.
The ultra-Orthodox have been exempt from military service since the founding of Israel in 1948, but as the numbers of the ultra-Orthodox have grown — and especially in the months since the war began — so have resentment and anger over these privileges.
The issue came to the fore Thursday night when the government announced that the coalition had not agreed on an extension to the exemption by April 1, when the current exemption elapses. That news prompted the Supreme Court to instruct the government, as soon as the deadline passes, to suspend special educational subsidies that support seminary students if those students have failed to answer their military call-ups.
The court’s decision spurred outrage among ultra-Orthodox leaders who fear for the financial future of their education system, which depends largely on state subsidies, and are concerned that the funding freeze is the first step toward mandatory military service for their community.
For now, some ultra-Orthodox leaders have said that their parties will remain in the coalition while they wait to see what happens.
The standoff reflects how a decadeslong battle over the character and future of the Jewish state has become graver since Oct. 7. Secular Israelis have long clashed with the ultra-Orthodox minority, known in Hebrew as Haredim, about how religious the state should be and how much autonomy the Haredim should have.
Now, a growing number of soldiers, including those from religious backgrounds, are returning from the front lines in Gaza and questioning why they should be risking their lives for a minority that receives vast educational subsidies, contributes less to the economy than other parts of society and mostly does not serve in the military.