If the 2020 election had been held using the 2024 electors, it would have taken a mere 21,461 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin to flip the election from Joe Biden to Donald Trump.
These three states had the narrowest vote totals and caused the election winner to be declared several weeks after the election. If those three states had flipped to Trump, then the electors would have been tied at 269 a piece and ensured several weeks' worth of amusing innuendo. The House of Representatives would have been required to break tie, and Biden would have been elected because the Democrats won the House. However, if you flipped an additional variable, the election would have been outright won by Trump: Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, whose one vote went to Biden. Nebraska apportions its five electoral votes with two votes going to the state's winner and one vote going to the winner of each of the state's congressional district. The swing vote in Nebraska 2 was 10,342 votes. So a total of 32,507 votes would have swung the election to Trump without needing the tiebreaker, with 2020 electors. This is just slightly larger than the capacity of Major League Baseball's smallest stadium, St. Petersburg's Tropicana Field.
However, because the electoral college changes this year from the last census, it would only require Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin to flip to ensure an outright Trump Victory in 2024. 21,461 votes, or, slightly larger than the capacity of Chicago's United Center, the NBA's largest arena and ironically the site of this year's DNC.
It does not matter that Joe Biden received seven million more votes nationally in the general, because elections are not decided that way. Elections are decided by the Electoral College, which is why we had January 6.
21,461 means that, in 2020, [bold]Joe Biden was an exceptionally weak candidate.[/bold]
He knows that.
The headline in the New York Times this morning is "The Big Change Between the 2020 and 2024 Races: Biden Is Unpopular." He would certainly lose reelection to any Republican candidate.
He knows that.
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