Polls released today and yesterday show Biden ahead:

Let’s wait until after DeSantis wins his lawsuit.

He could, but the odds are against that.

Yeah, I thought that it looked like an outlier poll. People just aren't educated on polling while the media just wants the clicks and ratings.

What is the margin of error? You’ve got a lot of 2% there. What are these poll ratings?

R4, Polls go up, polls go down. It's really way too early to know what's going to happen, but that stomping in Wisconsin a few weeks ago has me hopeful. Wait until the pending indictments come to fruition.

Just hope the economy is in OK shape on Election Day. If not, he will be tossed out and we will relive the Trump nightmare (now with 25% more crazy!).

R4 538 rates them both as B+ which is not far of the A rating the ABC News poll has. They are all within the margin of error. Including the ABC News poll. In general, wait and see if other polls show a similar result before freaking out. Getting the odd outlier result is normal including for the best pollsters.

We've learned national polls can be sketchy, but look at PA's polls and consider that the state swung in Dems favor in '22. The Dem nominee can win the Electoral College without PA, but it would be hard. The PA polls look promising.

Don't take my word for it on inflation, I'm no economist, take the NY Times. Sorry for the paywall.

Polls this early are worthless and it'll come down to the same several thousand people in a couple states anyway as usual

Not necessarily, not in 24^

These polls are all shit...because their methodology is shit.

For example, the ABC poll contacted 1,000 people by phone (25% landline, 75% mobile). Guess what, only old people pick up calls from pollsters (or unknown numbers). This is evident in ABC hiding the data regarding the age of the people polled. And, for whatever reason, they over-sampled Republicans by 5%.

The polling industry has become outdated trash.

More new polls released today no one is talking about:

1 May 12 Biden v. Trump - Virginia Public Opinion. D +7.0%

2 May 12 Biden v. Trump - New Mexico Public Opinion. D +11.0%

3 May 12 Biden v. Trump - Minnesota Public Opinion. D +8.0%

4 May 12 Biden v. Trump - Colorado Public Opinion. D +10.0%

5 May 12 Biden v. DeSantis - Virginia Public Opinion. Tie

6 May 12 Biden v. DeSantis - New Mexico Public Opinion. D +2.0%

7 May 12 Biden v. DeSantis - Minnesota Public Opinion. D +2.0%

8 May 12 Biden v. DeSantis - Colorado Public Opinion. D +3.0%

America doesn't know that much about DeSantis yet, so he is polling higher than Trump in some states. Dems should make an effort to prolong the Trump-DeSantis fight as long as possible, through the primaries. Help DeSantis get the nomination and watch in glee as Trump goes Independent and burns the GOP to the ground. "If I can't have the nomination, no one can! Bwahhaha!"

Don’t think R6, the Republicans in Congress will do everything they can to make the economy look bad in mid to late 2024. Of course they’ll be assisted by OPEC and CEOs of American corporations. For no reason the “ inflation “ will just shoot right up. 🙄

Will should have been won’t. ^^^^^^^

The more people know De Santis the less they like him. But that leaves Trump standing. I would like to see Trump have a heart attack and some moderate or at least not insane Republican emerge, say Christie. The risk is too great if Trump or De Santis is on the ticket.

I wonder what caused the uptick for Biden.

The townhall^. Trump won’t be the nominee. DeSantis will be.

Kennedy is beating DeSantis in Pennsylvania, so it looks like Democrats will win even if they have to drop Biden and go with Kennedy.

R18, the polls were done before the townhall.

It would be shockingly horrible if Kennedy was the nominee. He has the foreign policy of Tulsi Gabbard, and his kids supported Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren.

[quote]R18], the polls were done before the townhall.

Ah, thanks for correcting.

Polls are stupid if not connected to an event.

Waiting for after the Debt Ceiling is lifted.

R17 There is no 'uptick'. It was ONE, outlier poll that was bad for Biden.

Biden could get a boost from the coronation. People could have a better feeling toward old white men having seen Charles respected.

I’m surprised (pleasantly so) that Biden is actually winning against DeSantis by even wider margins than he is against Trump.

[quote]It was ONE, outlier poll that was bad for Biden.

But that’s not correct. Looking at RCP list, since 4/1, Trump was ahead in 6 polls, Biden ahead in 4, and one was a tie. The lead keeps bouncing back and forth.

R27 There is no uptick. The average is basically the same. And stop using RCP who are Republicans and cherry pick polls. 538 is more objective.

A lot of Americans are paying attention to debt ceiling situation, which is good, they should be scared. I think at the last minute McQarthy will blink, Large Marge and Trump will attack him as a reckless spending RINO, blah blah blah. Republicans raised the debt ceiling 3 times when Trump was president; McQarthy voted for it each time.

RCP is a right-wing Republican website. Just checked, they haven't included most of the polls released after the ABC poll.

R5, you are right but so is R4. You can't even read a poll without knowing the margin of error. It's typically about 3%, which would make the difference a wash. You are right about reliability this far out. A year from now they will start to be more reliable and 4 months from the election they are increasingly predictive depending on the questions and pollster quallity and bias and purpose of the poll. 538 has a great rating system and just updated it.

New Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Dump by 6%. It's not clear whether the polling happened before or after that disastrous CNN town hall.

I couldn't give a shit about polls one way or the other, but the fact is the American people are not stupid and they do in fact lean center left. No one wants to live in the United States of Florida. And DeSantis has already shown he's not going to do well when he leaves his FOX bubble. He has a terrible personality.

A year and a half out from the election. I hate how the campaigns start so early go on for ever and ever and envy those countries that put a time limit on it. My nerves are still shot from 2020.

DeSantis really just seems "off"