Official Midterm 2022 Polling Thread part 2

Governor (Arizona)

Lake (R) 50% Hobbs (D) 47%

10/30-11/1 by Emerson College (A-) 1000 LV

Woof woof! Hope this was helpful!

Poll #164966 #ElectionTwitter

Senate (Nevada)

Laxalt (R) 46% Cortez Masto (D) 43%

11/1-11/2 by Cygnal (B+) 600 LV

1

Governor (Maine)

Mills (D) 49% LePage (R) 43% Hunkler (I) 4%

10/28-11/2 by SurveyUSA (A) 1116 LV

Senate (Florida)

Rubio (R) 51% Demings (D) 43%

10/30-11/1 by Siena College (A) 659 LV

Generic Ballot (National)

Rep 48% Dem 43%

10/30-11/3 by Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (B) 2500 LV

Senate (Pennsylvania)

Oz (R) 48% Fetterman (D) 46%

11/1-11/3 by Trafalgar Group (A-) 1097 LV NOTE: partisan (R) poll

ARIZONA POLLING Trends by Emerson College with leaners

Sept: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 46.7% (+1.7) Blake Masters (R): 45%

NOW: Blake Masters (R): 48.1 (+0.4) Mark Kelly (D-inc): 47.7%

⦿ 2.1 point swing towards Masters by one of the best AZ 2020 pollsters (Kelly +3 vs Kelly +2.4)

Part 2

Catherine Cortez-Masto is Harry Reid's hand-picked successor to Harry Reid. She has ALL of the Reid Machine behind her, as well as the internal pollsters not effected by Republican dark money. My money is on CCM. She is very much like Nancy. She may be a future Majority Leader. She's quiet, like Harry, and tough as nails. She would be an excellent replacement for Schumer.

The midterms are closing with a significant divide between some of the independent polling and polls released by GOP-affiliated firms

Final Poll by Republican firm Tomahawk Strategies in Oklahoma:

Governor: Hofmesiter (D): 45% Stitt (R-Inc.): 42% Undecided: 13%

State Sup: Nelson (D): 49% Walters (R): 45% Undecided: 7%

LV screen: n=729 MoE=4%

Independent GA polls this week (LVs)

Marist #GASen Tied 48-48 #GAGov Kemp 53-45

SurveyUSA Warnock 49-43 Kemp 52-45

Emerson Warnock 50-48 Kemp 52-46

Fox Warnock 44-43 Kemp 49-43

Siena Warnock 49-46 Kemp 50-45

UGA Walker 46-45 Kemp 50-45

*AVERAGE* Warnock 48-46 Kemp 51-45

This is the thread with polls, so I vote that this remain the official polling thread.

I second that

538 says "dead heat" for the Senate, even though they have it as 54-46 GOP right now.

They have Republicans "favored to win" the House 82-18.

The Nevada election guru who has NEVER once been wrong with his predictions for the state has predicted that Dems hold on to the Senate seat.

Really tight race in NH

God I hate Florida

Abbot up by 13 points against Beto O'Rourke in the Texas governor's race:

DeSantis leading Crist by 10 points for Governor of Florida as of two days ago:

Remember when there was only a 30% chance that Hillary would lose to Trump?

Whitmer up by 5 in Michigan.

How TF is that weirdo and quack Dr Oz ahead in PA? Perhaps PA politics is too foreign to me to understand.

bc Fetterman was horrible in that debate, r24.

Also, you elected Cuomo.

Don't brag.

538 is shifting on the senate

My head will be firmly in the sand for the next 36 hours.

If anyone wants to surprise anal me, you have my permission.

I'm not watching tomorrow. I voted, and that's all I can do.

You and me both, R27. Minus the surprise anal.

I'm one of those guys who has been massively politically active for years, but the shift in climate to where election deniers and tin hat crazies can be elected has done a real number on me. It's too painful to think that this is what has happened to a country that elected Barack Obama by a landslide.

[QUOTE] 538 is shifting on the senate

Which way?

I’ll be screaming “Fuckers! Fuckers!” at any and every Repiglican win!

Well then, sadly, you're gonna have laryngitis by this time tomorrow night, R31.

I expect a great night for Democrats. We will retain both chambers of Congress and there will be some surprising wins (including in the Senate).

Just want to put it on the record!

^ 🙏🏽

i'm expecting a really bad night for Dems. 53 or 54 Senate seats for the Republicans

The polling forecasters (538, Crystal Ball, Split Ticket, etc) seem to all be predicting that the GOP will win both houses. And that Lake will win AZ-Gov. It was a real bummer.

But there could just be a normal polling error which isn't picking up motivated voters. So we will SEE.

I’m bracing for disaster

It would be neat if the polling was wrong and the Democrats actually did well so I guess I am rooting for that to happen.