The Ukrainians are kicking the shit out of the Russians! Pt.3

Thank you, OP! Love.

Slava Ukraini!

Big bridge go boom!

Kerch Bridge on fire!

Are you aware of the history of "Slava Ukraini" and Bandera, R1? If you're not, you need to be. It's entirely possible to support Ukraine without using slogans rooted in fascism.

Bye, Felicia!

R4, it appears that you yourself don’t know the history. Could be because you’re Boris.

The phrase first appeared at the beginning of the 20th century in different variations, when it became popular among Ukrainians during the Ukrainian War of Independence from 1917 to 1921. From the 1930s it was used by different Ukrainian groups, as well as Ukrainian diaspora groups and refugee communities in the West during the Cold War. In the Soviet Union the phrase was forbidden and discredited by Soviet and later Russian authorities. The phrase eventually resurfaced in Ukraine during the country's struggle for independence in connection with the fall of the Soviet Union. Its use was revived again during the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and the Russo-Ukrainian War, during which it became a widely popular symbol in Ukraine.

In the Soviet Union, the slogan "Slava Ukraini!" was forbidden and discredited via a decades-long propaganda campaign alongside the diaspora Ukrainian nationalists who used it.. They were dubbed "Ukrainian bourgeois nationalists", "Banderites", and "Nazi henchmen" by Soviet authorities.

PUtin deserves a big fat boot in his ugly face

Some on Twitter seem to think the bridge is damaged beyond repair but no?

[QUOTE]I love it that Ukraine mocked the cunt Putin on her 70th birthday by playing Marilyn Monroe singing "Happy Birthday"

R574 - Ukraine has done some amazing PR work that's on point, incisive, and sometimes funny in the face of a humorless Goliath. The first thing I noticed early on was from their tax authority -- meme of a large tractor towing an abandoned tank with a message to farmers: "Don't worry, you don't have to declare it as income. Carry on." Soldiers rescuing a variety of cute animals from rubble. Videos of coordinated and peaceful surrenders.

I recall during the Reagan administration and later stages of the cold war when the U.S. was negotiating the nuclear arms reduction treaties (SALT and START), some retired military officer/Soviet expert said a lot of our nuclear build up at the time was unnecessary because Soviet society was rotting from within and would eventally implode. It happened once already. I wish I could remember his name. I'm sure even he didn't realize how prescient he was about Russian society. The type of corruption back then was peanuts compared to Putin and the oligarchs' robberies.

The driver of the truck that exploded is said to have come from Russia.

[quote]PUtin deserves a big fat boot in his ugly face

A stiletto heel would also do the trick, r7.

I'm sure the bridge can be repaired, but it will take a while. Looks like a train depot was hit as well, making it very hard for Russia to resupply Kherson. The Ukrainians have really shown a flair for strategy.

"@evanhill (NYT)

A senior Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Ukraine’s intelligence services had orchestrated the attack and that it involved a bomb loaded onto a truck that drove across the bridge."

Good men do realize what they are fighting for.

From the WSJ's report on US provided Himar rockets:

A global revolution in warfare is dramatically tipping the scales of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, putting in the hands of front-line troops the kind of lethality that until recently required aircraft, ships or lumbering tracked vehicles. It also has the capacity to change battlefields far from Eastern Europe.

Able to pick off Russian military bases, ammunition depots and infrastructure far behind front lines, Ukraine’s 16 Himars helped its troops this summer halt a bloody Russian advance. Since last month, Ukrainians have seized back swaths of territory in their country’s east and ground down Russian troops in the south. Washington recently pledged to deliver another 18 Himars.

So it was a suicide mission? And how was a Ukrainian Truck able to get to Russia loaded with explosives? Why didn't the truck drive from Crimea to Russia, which more likely would have damaged the rail bridge and the Russia to Ukraine side of the car bridge, simply because the Crimea to Russia side was in the middle?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the Karan railway station in Andriivka

According to preliminary information, an ammunition depot was destroyed.

R16 The details aren't known right now but I wouldn't assume that they didn't surreptitiously plant a bomb in a Russian truck and then detonate it by radio control. This is a Special Forces op so they obviously have people in Russia doing covert stuff.

[QUOTE]So it was a suicide mission? And how was a Ukrainian Truck able to get to Russia loaded with explosives?

Other way around,, Sherlock. It was a Russian truck approaching Crimea.

A bunch of prominent YouTube channels that have been providing war news and commentary were all demonitized today. Outrageous.

R18, that seems to make the most sense. The Ukrainians don’t seem like suicide bombers. They are, however, inspired trolls—setting up the attack so that the truck would be driven by a Russian, coming from the Russian side of the bridge, would very much be their speed.

Slava Ukraini comes from a poem by Ukraine’s greatest poet, Taras Shevchenko.

Horrific missile strikes at residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia. The Russians are persistently so cruel and brutal. Academics seem to agree that what they are doing is a genocide.

[quote]Other way around,, Sherlock. It was a Russian truck approaching Crimea.

A truck driven by a pro Ukrainian driver on the way from Russia to Crimea, you mean? 🙄

Either the driver was in on it or someone remotely triggered the explosion. You couldn't have set a timer to explode while on the bridge, no way of knowing how long the inspection might take.

I don’t think it was a truck. I think it was an explosion from the water.

[quote]The details aren't known right now but I wouldn't assume that they didn't surreptitiously plant a bomb in a Russian truck and then detonate it by radio control. This is a Special Forces op so they obviously have people in Russia doing covert stuff.

Sure R18, anything is possible, but hiding that amount of explosives in a truck seems impossible to me, esp when you think that the Ukraine must have found somebody in Russia who would manufacture and deliver it to a site where the truck was parked.

I'm not sure whether they actually are sure it was the truck; which is just what Russia says caused the explosion. Could be something completely different, which of course Ukraine isn't disclosing. Why would Ukraine even feel the need to tell Russia how they did it.

Vehicles get inspected before they're allowed onto the bridge. Given it's a Russian inspection they could have missed a truckload of explosives, or been bribed to look the other way, but that's taking a big chance with what's probably your one shot at the bridge.

An explosion from underneath makes more sense in terms of a higher possibility to damage the bridge. You just need to direct the blast to where the expansion joints are.

Anyway, still lots of unknowns.

Agreed, r26. From the CCTV footage, the explosion seemed to come from under the right side of the bridge. The flames were coming up and did it appear to be going OUT.

Of course, it could have been BOTH. That the truck was detonated after the first under bridge explosion. There are two different explosions in the CCTV footage, it looks to me.

The Russians say it was a truck. The Ukrainians say it was a truck. There is no singing on the underneath of the bridge.

It was a truck.

*singeing

Pretty soon Russia will be conscripting women for mandatory service in this ill-fated war.

Beware, Svetlana and Ninotchka!

Update — the Russians have reported that the bridge is fully operational again.

Bridge has 1x road, 1x rail track open, so 50% operational. The Ukrainians need to find a way to hit the other road and rail track..

And a rollercoaster

I cannot believe any Russian thinks that section of rail Bridge is structurally sound after those buckling and melting fires. And the destroyed civilian roads. Russian citizens are probably being forced to drive those unsafe roads and rails.

Stupidity and death are the New, Actually Old Russian Ways.

There's a difference between operational enough to allow a single lane of cars and operational enough for heavy-equipment convoys and trains. Russia needs the latter to stay in business. The two bridges over the Dnipro are in a similar situation--you can walk across one and drive light vehicles over the other. What you can't do is drive over a fleet of tanks or artillery trucks.

There's exposed rebar on the train bridge--I doubt it's safe for a fully loaded freight train of any sort.

The thing that's been really striking me about the Ukrainians is that ruthless sense of humor they keep displaying--they're happy warriors--it's clear that they hate the Russians so much that they're enjoying this on some weird level. It's been a long time coming.

[QUOTE]The thing that's been really striking me about the Ukrainians is that ruthless sense of humor they keep displaying--they're happy warriors--it's clear that they hate the Russians so much that they're enjoying this on some weird level. It's been a long time coming.

Schadenfreude is a very prevalent and useful emotion. But the Ukranians haven't yet been accused of war crimes, nor will they be, "god" forbidding.

But war crimes are a usual Russian tactic as the Syrian middle class and laborers found out. Nobody gave a shit about them.

Nobody. Not even a little bleat towards the indigenous citizens who kept getting wiped out by Russia in their "stan" regions.

And here we are gloating over a "Mother Russia" defeat only Putin and his oligargical cronies could have have conjured. And they have NO FUCKING IDEA WHAT TO DO?!?!!! Their "Generals" are fat, stupid, and woefully undereducated.

Sorry, I'm a bit drunk and loving this moment in history where other WORSE drunks are doing my destiny.

Yes, their humor is seen in their postal stamp releases. They had one of the bridge on fire out almost simultaneously with the attack.

I'd love to see some of those ethnic-majority Russian republics (places like Tatarstan, Circassia) try to capitalize on Russia being militarily hamstrung and break away.

^^^ From the NYT, Oct 8, 2022

[quote] A Distracted Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere

[quote] Russia’s domination of Central Asia and the Caucasus region is unraveling as the Kremlin focuses on the war in Ukraine — and border violence is flaring.

[quote] With the Kremlin distracted by its flagging war more than 1,500 miles away in Ukraine, Russia’s dominium over its old Soviet empire shows signs of unraveling. Moscow has lost its aura and its grip, creating a disorderly vacuum that previously obedient former Soviet satraps, as well as China, are moving to fill.

I mean the 'truck full of explosives did it' narrative by Ukraine makes sense because if it was done with US rockets, Putin could easily declare war on NATO. Although, I do think a thorough investigation would easily determine what caused the blast. If Ukraine with the help of some anti Putin forces in Russia did this and organized the truck full of explosives, driving from Russia over to Crimea, that would be a masterstroke on logistics and spy works.

Don't forget Patron, the bomb-sniffing Jack Russell who also got a stamp from the post office and a medal from Zelensky, saving humans whenever he trots.

@kamilkazani has written in great detail on Twitter about the infrastructure and technology problems in Putin's Russia. One of the interesting aspects is that Putin outsources most war technology development to companies outside of Russia. Why? Because any company that develops enough new technology to possibly use it to contribute to the overthrow of Putin is a threat and cannot be in located in Russia. That means that companies in other countries that aren't directly controlled by Putin have to be paid well for their work. If Putin doesn't want to spend a lot of his stolen taxpayers' money for that, Russia gets put near the end of the contractors' lines to get work done, and Russia keeps falling behind other countries technologically.

I wonder if Miss China is looking at how all of this is playing out and thinking twice about their plans re: Taiwan.

R46 Especially when the west has stuck to their guns and not caved into the economic consequences of sanctions...

China's gotten real quiet about Taiwan. Taiwan is well-armed and you can't just roll tanks over the border. Plus, while the Chinese army is big, it's inexperienced and its neighbors don't really like it. I mean, when Vietnam likes the U.S. better than China, you know something's up.

I bet it really irks Russia and China that Japan choses US as an ally and not them.

Russian host says all those jokes about Biden's Parkinson's and Alzheimer's aren't gonna cut it anymore, it's time to get serious.

r49 Japan has never been close to Russia or China, and not just because it has active territorial disputes with both. Those three really can't stand each other.

China is using NoKo as a proxy stage.

[quote] Putin outsources most war technology development to companies outside of Russia. Why? Because any company that develops enough new technology to possibly use it to contribute to the overthrow of Putin is a threat and cannot be in located in Russia.

Plato was right that tyranny is ultimately its own punishment. I just wish the self-owns were more efficient.

Is the propagandist at R50 using the "boy who cried wolf" parable correctly? "Cry wolf" means give a hoax warning (that later backfires when circumstances make it true).

Cry uncle seems more appropriate for sure.

Pootie Poop enjoys poisoning and having adversaries tossed off buildings. He has displayed a fondness for terrorism and genocide.

One day, perhaps, among those who he has abused, may have him in custody, alive.

I see Poots seeking asylum in North Korea in the near future, issuing fulminations from Pyongyang about a glorious recapture of Russia from Western imperialists.

Russian leaders end up dead. Their flunkies go into exile.

R13 did the truck driver agree to become a suicide bomber?

R58 No-one knows (aside from those involved)! We don't know the details. It's possible we never will.

There's a lot of talk that Belarus may be preparing to send soldiers to fight Ukraine on behalf of Russia because Belarus has been claiming that Ukraine plans on attacking them (which Ukraine denies, and I don't see why they would want to either unless maybe logistics). Also apparently Belarus has been asking universities and so on to draw up lists of men who can be conscripted. Putin recently gave Lukashenko another $1.5bn.

Could this destabilize Belarus? Isn't Lukashenko pretty well despised? There were mass protests there a little over a year ago.

Chances are high that there would be a revolt in Belarus if Lukashenko ordered an attack. There's plenty of discontent there already.

Lukashenko knows perfectly well that that plan would go over with the Belarusians like a lead balloon, and having clung ot power a couple of years ago only with Putin's help he certainly doesn't want to stir up discontent. He's probably on the edge of his chair hoping that Putin will back off or get thrown out a window before push comes to shove.

Putin will hold a meeting of the Russian Security Council on Monday, according to the Kremlin. Such council sessions usually take place on Fridays. We might hear his response to the Crimea bridge attack then.

Still lots of speculation on the method of attack.

This thread explores the possibility of a HIMARS strike using one big missile called an ATACMS. It’s a type of HIMARS rocket (missile) that is bigger and with a larger warhead.

It’s so big the launcher can only hold one instead of 6. It has a range of about 190 miles. The recent Ukrainian gains in territory have finally put ATACMS in range of the bridge.

But…

1) the USA has decommissioned the missile and was supposed to be disposing of them

2) we don’t know whether the Ukrs have been given any

You can’t tell by looking at the HIMARS pod whether is has the usual GMLRS rockets or the big ATACMS missile — they’re identical in appearance.

A missile strike would explain away problems with the truck theory but it has its own problems as well. Interesting.

Belarus has a tiny army — only 50,000 men. Its primary purpose is the subjugation of the population.

It can expand hugely using reservists and conscripts but then it would be an unknown — most of those conscripts hate the government and Russia and want Ukraine to win.

There are more than a few Belarusians fighting for Ukraine right now.

IMO the last thing Lukashenko wants is to arm his oppressed population. But who knows, this misadventure is chock full of moronic decisions.

I forgot to mention that Lukashenko gave Putin a voucher to get a (Belarusian-made) tractor for his 70th birthday. That seems a bit like trolling to me.

One video I watched with an explosives expert said he thought it was a Russian truck transporting some sort of munitions to the front. The Russians just did their typical bad job at packing, and something exploded while it was on the bridge. That sounds possible, but also awfully convenient for the Ukrainians.

"@ChristopherJM

Ukrainian military intelligence officials tell me the foreign legion unit under their command saw its base in Zaporizhzhia destroyed in Russia’s missile attack yesterday. The location had been “compromised.” But foreign troops were relocated before attack. No injuries; regrouped."

Well, giving the Ukrainians the ATACM rockets is a good way of “disposing” of them efficiently. Hehe!

Isn't Malcolm Nance (former commentator on MSNBC In the foreign legion unit?

[quote] Well, giving the Ukrainians the ATACM rockets is a good way of “disposing” of them efficiently. Hehe!

It’s funny — you are joking but that’s literally true. It’s cheaper to just give them away than it is to dispose of ordinance. The same can be said for the old M113 armoured personnel carriers we have also given them, which look like a bread basket wjth tracks, and are about as protective. They are in the US inventory so have to be kept track of (pardon the expression) and maintained. But giving them to Ukraine is free — you just have to pay to transport them.

They’re fast, reliable and can stop an AK-74 bullet, but not much else. But they make guys on foot into mechanized infantry.

By the way, there’s no public record of us still having ATACM missiles, or giving them to Ukraine.

Bootsy- what's your background to know so much about armaments, foreign ones at that? I look at all the acronyms and my head spins trying to keep track of names alone, yet you know their functions, environment, and range, etc.

Very appreciative of your posts.

The Russians are still hitting civilian targets in Zaporizhzhia every night. Zelensky says that they have killed at least 43 people there since October 3 this week alone. They are also striking Kharkiv and other cities.

Big explosions in Kyiv this morning which hasn't happened for months. This isn't even about simply annexing the regions. Putin wants the total annihilation of Ukraine.

❗️Local Telegram channels report about 4 explosions in the center of Kyiv.

[quote] Big explosions in Kyiv this morning which hasn't happened for months.

Oh yeah, that's going to make the people of Ukraine real, real receptive to Russian occupation. Great job, Russia.

His attempt at annihilating the Ukrainian people, their culture, and their spirit will backfire spectacularly. He is vilifying his shithole country for generations because he CAN'T. LET. IT .GO.

No one will be able to look at, think about, or hear "Russia" without thinking about cowardice, raping, terrorism, and unnecessary violence. Conversely, the entire world (save those he keeps in the dark via state media and the willful ignoramuses of the dwindling numbers of MAGAts and the Repuks on his payroll) see the Ukrainians resilience, their strength, their humor and root for them.

A leader suiciding his entire nation and it's reputation before our eyes is something to watch, a real tragedy because of the devestating loss of life and damage to the Ukrainian people.

REUTERS: Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said Belarus and Russia will deploy a joint military task force in response to what he called an aggravation of tension on the country's western borders, the state-run Belta news agency reported on Monday.

Lukashenko said the two countries would deploy a regional military group, and had started pulling forces together two days ago.

Lukashenko - is his hold on power so strong that Belarussians will go along with his plans for the country's military? If Belarussians wanted to flee, where could they go? Does anyone think Belarussians will protest Lukashenko's decision?

@jonnytickle

One of the most frustrating things when talking to Russians is their opinion of mass media. They simply refuse to believe anything. They accept that Russian media is constantly spewing propaganda, but they ALWAYS follow it up with "but Western media is lying about Ukraine too"

"@mjluxmoore

Visited a friend at home in Lviv. Russia’s attacks today left half the city without water, electricity or internet. As we parted he calmly picked up a 5-liter bottle and without a word went outside to join the line for water." Unclear why Putin still thinks Ukrainians will buckle."

"@LogKa11

The regions of Lviv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Ternopil, Poltava, Zhytomyr and Kiev all reported severe blackouts and interruptions in electricity."

---These aren't military targets (unlike the Crimea bridge attack which was about targeting an important logistics route).

"@aaron_schwa

#Russia's strategic bombing, unless it disrupts military movements or command/control in some way, will have the dual effect of not only not eroding #Ukraine's resolve, but boosting #Europe's, too."

"@leonidragozin

Medvedev is talking about “full dismantling of the political regime in Ukraine” today. Public messaging is as maximalist as it gets on both sides of the conflict now. Makes it harder to backtrack when time comes to talks."

@JakeCordell

Both China and India have both now publicly expressed concern and called for deescalation, hours after Russia launched its largest coordinated attack against Ukraine in months, firing almost 100 missiles at dozens of cities during morning rush hour, killing and injuring civilians.

R83, because he knows it's dismantle or be dismantled time. When Medvedev takes a midnight plane out of Russia...

Crimea bridge bombing was tErRoRiSm, Pooty whines

I kind of quit paying attention to this.

The Ukrainians are terrorists! In revenge, we attack civilian targets!

Ukrainians who do not accept our bombing of civilians are nothing more than terrorists when they sever a war pipeline.

One can't help but wonder if Putin truly has a bigger plan, or if he's just trying to distract the populace from all the woes inside Russia.

If there is a plan at all, I doubt it has anything to do with Ukraine. He is itching for a global fight, it seems, but why?

Since his current plans aren't working at all, keep that tin foil hat on a little longer r90 and let us know what you think Putin's bigger plans are

He's definitely hoping his Repuklicans stooges take the House, so funding from America to Ukraine is cut off. If we can't help then, other nations might back out +ahem, Germany). Then, he will "win".

No one will ever dump him again!!!!

The hardliners inside of Russia are thrilled with Putin's retaliation for the bridge attack, and they want more.

[quote] Moscow’s longtime proxy leader of Crimea hailed the barrage of strikes across Ukraine.

[quote] “Good news from the early morning: approaches to conducting the special military operation have changed,” the regional chief, Sergey Aksyonov, wrote on Telegram.

[quote] “I’ve said from the first day of the operation that if such actions aimed at destroying the enemy’s infrastructure have been taken every day, then we would have finished everything in May and the Kyiv regime would have been defeated.”

[quote] “I hope that now the pace of the operation will not slow down,” Aksyonov said.

Zelensky says:

[quote] “They are trying to destroy us and wipe us off the face of the earth,” Zelensky said on Telegram. “Destroy our people who are sleeping at home in Zaporizhzhia. Kill people who go to work in Dnipro and Kyiv.”

Time to give Ukraine cruise missiles. You bomb Kyiv, we bomb St. Petersburg.

R82, that sounds pure MAGA/“but both sides.” I guess that propaganda technique was deployed in Russia for decades to make people disengage from all politics; that must be the goal when it is used here.

Thanks r74, I don’t think I should uncloak enough to say. I’m glad the perspective is useful though.

Give Ukraine the long-range missiles and fighter jets. Russia is resorting to more civilian terrorism and indiscriminate bombing.

The Russians have been very restrained overall.

Remember NATO's destruction of Serbia? Russia can do that.

R98 Highly unlikely. Ukraine is too big with too big a population for them to conduct the kind of extreme terrorism that is needed to subdue a population (which the Russians have done in places like Chechnya and Syria). But here they almost certainly won't be able to sustain this rate of missile strikes. Michael Kofman: "What can be said with some confidence is that the rate of strikes declined over time, and the types of missiles often used suggested dwindling stockpiles of more suitable PGMs."

BREAKING: Germany will deliver the first of 4 IRIS-T SLM air defence systems to Ukraine "within days"

Let's see, R99.

Zelensky: “Of 84 Russian missiles launched against Ukraine, 43 were shot down. Out of 24 drones, 13 were shot down.”

Biden has now promised Zelensky advanced air defense systems too.

Good Lord. They're crowd-funding the war?

[QUOTE]Mardan grumbled about the problems Russia continues to have with supplying its existing forces, especially in light of the recently announced partial mobilization. He outlined the well-known shortages of uniforms, drones and basic gear, which have been replenished through donations and crowdfunding. The host noted that at this point, every grandma in Russia knows what a quadcopter is, having had to contribute funds to supply the Army. Now the citizens are being prepared to skip New Year’s celebrations, to do without Christmas trees or fancy lights adorning city centers—with that money to be sent to the front, securing winter uniforms for the troops. Mardan sternly noted: “This is no time to celebrate.”

R91 you slovenly fool — I wasn’t spouting any conspiracy theories, I am merely wondering what his ulterior motives are.

The Russians seem to be replicating the German experience in WWI and II, only under a seriously compressed time frame. The Germans didn't start getting the ominous message from empty supermarket shelves, uniform shortages, and absent holiday decor until years into each war.

Of course Russians are sending Asian and other ethnic minorities to fight and die en masse.

For being a so-called 'union' of diverse republics and people, the Russians always reward themselves with preferential treatment (Belarussians, second).

[quote]I don’t think I should uncloak enough to say.

Exciting! Are you the DLer who dropped a hint about taking out bin Laden the day before it happened?

I know, if you told me, you’d have to kill me,

R108, I totally don’t remember that! I tried to do a Google search of DL to see if I could find the thread, but of course, DL is unsearchable. Do you have the thread bookmarked by any chance?

"People sing Ukrainian songs in the Kyiv metro":

R96 Bootsy, how and when will this war end?

Not even the first clue, r111!

[quote] The Russians have been very restrained overall

Nonsense, they’ve behaved with utter savagery. And this latest assault has been nothing more than a brutal temper tantrum. It’s no better than the German V2 rocket attacks on London. In fact it’s worse — the German leadership was responding to Allied bombing that systematically destroyed city after city. The Russians launched this purely anti-civilian raid because of … an attack on a bridge?

A bridge that was a high value military target?

[quality]Remember NATO's destruction of Serbia? Russia can do that.

NATO did not destroy Yugoslavia (not “Serbia”). It attacked the Federal Republic’s military infrastructure, then directly launched attacks on federal armed forces conducting ethnic cleansing in Kosovo.

The Russians? Their air assets are so timid, they launch their ordinance at the maximum possible distance then fly back to base. And when the brave few do conduct aggressive air ops they’re often shot down. There are videos of Mi-35s (successor to the Mi-24) firing their rocket pods at absurdly long ranges, with basically no chance of hitting anything.

Putin using his Kalibr cruise missiles in this temper tantrum he’s now throwing is the antithesis of what cruise missiles are for. And he only has a limited stockpile of them left.

This thread has aged poorly.

Not as poorly as the Russian military.

What did Putin achieve in military terms by this? Pretty much nothing. If anything it shows weakness. It feels like a bone thrown to the nationalists. There's increasing pressure on Putin.

Ukraine is now going to get advanced air defense systems sent to them and everyone sane is disgusted. V. hard to imagine how Putin will get what he wants.

R116 a lot of the impetus for this revenge strike was the mentally unhinged Zed ultranationalists who have been criticizing the war effort from the far right. They basically want Russia to behave like ancient Assyria.

It’s really a political attack. But to some extent, beyond that, he’s also getting revenge on a personal basis for “his” bridge being attacked.

Yes, I was reading the ISW and they put it so well: "The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces successfully completed the mission of striking Ukrainian military command centers, signal infrastructure, and energy systems in Ukraine. Social media shows that Russians instead hit a children’s playground, a park, a German consulate, and a business center among other non-military targets."

They say that Russia wasted some of their dwindling precision weapons by doing this and cite intelligence that thinks that is a problem for Putin now.

Defacto aka DeFuckUp is off her trolly again, bumping threads from 2015. It’s called forum sliding. And I don’t want this thread to vanish, so consider this a “bump”.

Fuck Russia and fuck DeFuckUp.

Useful bump

Chief propagandist Margarita Simonyan has been acting defensive recently, saying that she doesn't make decisions, doesn't have much to do with what's happening in Ukraine and she has been trying to minimise what is happening.

Twitter has a feature that allows users to hide replies. It's meant to take out of view replies that distract, troll or spam. Anyway, so anyone can still click a link to see all the hidden replies. I clicked on hers for one of her recent tweets and there were tons of people saying that she'll end up in the Hague being tried for war crimes. Meaning that she's actively seeing and hiding those replies. No wonder she's been acting nervous recently. I think she knows it isn't going well.

[quote]The Russians have been very restrained overall.

Yes, those mass burial sites, and entire thriving towns reduced to wastelands, display nothing but judicious benign restraint. Putin so far not using the nuclear weapons he's threatened is also cause for admiration and gratitude. He's a force for good in the world, and no mistake.

[quote] The Russians have been very restrained overall.

Russians do not know any such things like restraint and subtlety.

Forbes Ukraine estimates that the missile attacks on cities throughout Ukraine on Monday cost Russia between $400 million and $700 million.

Daily reminder that Putin, his supporters, and enablers are all evil pieces of shit.

Another day of Russian strikes. Ukraine’s air force said in a statement that by 1.30pm local time Russia had fired 28 cruise missiles and scores of kamikaze drones targeting critical infrastructure, 20 of which had been destroyed by Ukraine’s air defence system.

Kyiv's Tets-6 thermal power plant is on fire after a strike by a Russian cruise missile. Power and water supply outages in Lviv again.

[quote] Forbes Ukraine estimates that the missile attacks on cities throughout Ukraine on Monday cost Russia between $400 million and $700 million.

Don’t the poor village babushkas ever look around and wonder why they have no paved roads and indoor plumbing when their government is wasting money like that to destroy another country?

100+ years of propaganda, R127..

Russia is running out of teachers that some schools might even have to close (they already had a 250k shortage).

"@jonnytickle

According to one teacher in Saint Petersburg, 80% of the teaching staff in his school has left or will leave soon. And it's not just male teachers - there are also female teachers who plan to follow their husbands abroad."

I don't mean to be a MARY!!!!! -- I've experienced enough stress this morning by reading the speculative "What happens if Trump wins in 2024?" piece on Washington Post -- but realistically, how close are we to WWIII?

"@jason_corcoran

Fire in the Shebekinsky district in Belgorod, the Russian city bordering Ukraine. @bazabazon reports that locals say Ukrainian forces attacked the electricity substation. There are power outages in the city."

Kids are back to playing in the playground next to the missile crater impact site (pic linked). Shops are open, roads are quickly being fixed. Reporters are saying that the Ukrainians they talk to aren't terrorised but even more determined.

[quote]poor village babushkas

If they even knew what Forbes was it'd make no difference. They're at best breeders of cannon fodder to Putin. This is all about a psychopathic tyrant having his special birthday spoiled, and seeking deep bloodshed in revenge. Money no object.

It appears that those Iranian drones are easier to hit than a clay pigeon. PULL!!!

Yes they are primitive and Ukrainian air defence can shoot down most of them, but the problem is that they use up valuable defensive weapons and can overwhelm systems and get through.

Zelensky said today that the Kremlin has ordered 2400 more of the Iranian drones - Russia has been burning 20-30 of them every day.

Just saw a video that showed individual Ukranian soldiers can bring down an Iranian drone by simply pointing a sonic jammer at it. Seems the drones are very slow and very loud and easy to spot incoming.

I guess the Russians never read up on the effect the Blitz had on Britsh determination to fight.

It's being reported that Elon Musk has told a journalist that he spoke to Putin before tweeting his 'solution' to the Russo-Ukraine war (which sounded like it came straight from RT). And that Elon promised Putin that his demands would be met.

I find that super creepy especially given that Elon wants to buy Twitter. Elon wants zero censorship which would be perfect for Russian disinfo and trolls. Why is Elon even talking to Putin and uncritically promoting what Putin wants given that politics isn't something he's involved in normally? It really makes you wonder if the Russians have something on him and Elon is a Russian asset now.

R138, if true, he should be charged with espionage and/or violating the Logan Act. He needs a visit from the FBI.

R139 Fuck, that's amazing and very specifically seems to apply to this..

Weaselface Musk should just move in with ol Pooty. No loss.

Russia to annex US states that wish to break away from America. Russian trolling reported by Newsweek 10/10/22:

[quote] A senior member of the state Duma, Russia's parliament, said that any U.S. states that want to break away from the country and instead join the Russian Federation will be considered.

[quote] The comments come only a week after Russia declared that four regions of Ukraine had become Russian territory, following referendums that were widely criticized by Ukrainian and Western officials as being sham. These were Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south. The votes supported the regions changing from Ukrainian to Russian territory.

[quote] State Duma deputy Alexander Tolmachev was responding to an online poll that showed that some Americans wanted their states to break free from the U.S. If Americans vote to secede some states from the country and express a desire to join Russia, Moscow will consider it, Tolmachev told Russian news site Podmoskovye Segodnya.

The realization of the Louisgrad Oblast. Moscow Mitch must have blown a dusty load.

[quote]A senior member of the state Duma, Russia's parliament, said that any U.S. states that want to break away from the country and instead join the Russian Federation will be considered.

Their trolling seems to have come down quite a bit. Maybe all the primo trolls fled the conscription.

Russia must really be desperate for cannon fodder if it's willing to take Alabama AND Kentucky off of our hands.

[quote]@RALee85 Mobilized Russian soldiers are reportedly receiving Soviet-era R-159M radios used in the 1980s.

That's 40 years ago!

The real Nazis.

One of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic leaders, PavelPavel Gubarev, states their intent towards Ukrainians: "We aren't coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don't want to be convinced, we'll kill you. We'll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you."

R146 how else are they going to listen to this unless they get radios from the 1980s?

I fucking hate Elon Musk and I resent the media foisting his gross face, flabby tofu body, and troll opinions on the world.

The “reason” for the invasion.

Elon denies talking to Putin but Ian Bremmer, the journalist, stands by it. Bremmer has history - in 2017 he reported that Trump and Putin had an undisclosed meeting at the G20 which Trump also denied but it was then officially confirmed. So it would not surprised me if someone has told Elon that he could be prosecuted for it and he's lying, or someone was a go-between from the Kremlin.

Did Weaselface Musk call Bremmer a pedophile yet, like he did that poor Thai diver?

I say we offer the same deal to members states of the Russian Federation. Once Russia disintegrates, they're welcome to become US colonies.

Lucian Kim tweeted 2 hours ago "Elon Musk did not tell me he spoke to Putin, but a few days ago I did hear something very similar to what Ian Bremmer reports."

and referenced a tweet he wrote on October 3rd:

"@Lucian_Kim From what I'm hearing, Elon Musk is not simply expressing his own view but transmitting a concrete proposal—wrapped in a threat—from Putin himself."

Explosions are reported in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region.

Musk reminds me of a slightly smarter Trump. But still stupid enough to be a useful idiot for Putin. I wish they would both leave the planet on SpaceX and never return.

R155, that was from yesterday's attack.

Jesus, is Lucian Kim's tweet the state of journalism in the 21st century? That's what reporting has been reduced to? I didn't say that, but it's what I remember hearing and it's similar to what someone else said...

Oh. My. God. And to think the Lim was once worked for NPR... as the Orange Turd would say, "Sad!"

R158 What are you talking about? A ton of journalism refers to things sources have told them but whom they can't name because it would be exposing an useful source who has insider information they are leaking. It's normal and has been for decades. I probably could find dozens of examples in the NYT, Washington Post, The Times and other newspapers of record.

"@JimmySecUK

The Ukrainian government claims to have destroyed four Russian helicopters this morning - a claim at least partially confirmed by Russian Telegram channels that are mourning the losses of shot down crews..."

"@niktwick

Ukrainian military (Southern Command) says it has liberated five more villages in the #Kherson Region"

[quote]Don’t the poor village babushkas ever look around and wonder why they have no paved roads and indoor plumbing when their government is wasting money like that to destroy another country?

Exactly!

Toxic nationalism keeps people in line and it's always been like that really. In the old Soviet Union the politburo fat cats had the biggest dachas and ordinary Russians had to wait 12 years for an apartment. Today Russia is the most unequal country in terms of haves and have nots.

More unverified gossip from more unnamed sources:

"More than 90,000 troops make up Russia’s “irrecoverable” military losses in Ukraine, as reported by the Russian media project iStories (or Vazhnye Istorii). One of the two sources of this information works in the FSB; the other is a former state security officer.

“Irrecoverable losses” is a category that includes servicemen who were killed, went missing, died from their wounds or were disabled and cannot return to military service."

It sounds like the Russians are feeling the pain of not getting Europe's money for gas: Putin has urged Europe in a speech to just turn on the switch to get gas from the remaining open pipeline while the head of Gazprom has put out an apocalyptic warning that entire cities may freeze in Europe.

They banked on Europe giving into energy blackmail but Europe didn't and now the Russians are going to feel the economic pain of shooting themselves in the foot.

Professor Nina Khrushcheva, a great granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev, recently returned from Russia with observations about how people are handling mobilization.

She says that although the Russian press reports that Putin has 70% support, it really is more like 20% support him, 30% oppose him, and 50% just want to be left alone. And mobilization is really screwing with and upsetting the 50% "leave us alone" people.

That discussion starts at 3:10

The UN General Assembly approved a resolution condemning the annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions and the so-called "DPR" and "LPR".

143 countries out of 193 voted "for".

R166, just checked out the countries which didn't vote in favor -- talk about a sad little list of bad news bear countries.

According to Pentagon officials more than half of Russia's cruise missiles malfunction or don't hit the intended target.

Russia has just unleashed a barrage of missiles on the city of Mykolaiv.

It's a bit of a mystery how many missiles they have left. I did see a German analysis which thinks about 1,000. (The Russians have used an estimated 3,600 so far.) Replacing those missiles is not easy at all.

Wait time for semi-trucks to get on the ferry across the Kerch Strait is estimated to be 3-4 days, and growing.

Those truck drivers must feel monumentally secured by the glory that pretends to be Russia when they drive into increasingly hostile territories. A least they don't have to go back where they lived without paved roads or street lights at night. Well, those fuckers are all dead anyway, being Putin's point: he thinks young, threatening men need to be culled and killed.

We all used to think of Putin as a criminal mastermind, now it’s more and more apparent he’s just a loudmouth, ignorant, Russian-speaking Trump. He listens to anybody who tells him he’s a stable genius, like Elon Musk. And if he’s like Trump, he probably also doesn’t listen to any experts or anybody that tells him that this isn’t working. Just like Hitler. They must have both been malignant narcissists.

[quote]@bayraktar_1love According to Russian-appointed head of Crimea, waiting at the ferry crossing in Crimea takes about 3-4 days. And there are about 900 trucks in line at the moment.

Ferries carrying several military trucks over have been spotted. There is a crane fixing the damage to the bridge.

[quote] We all used to think of Putin as a criminal mastermind

Do you remember when all of the Putin trolls kept insisting that he was playing "14th-dimensional chess" while everyone else was playing checkers?

[quote]And if he’s like Trump, he probably also doesn’t listen to any experts or anybody that tells him that this isn’t working.

Trump met disagreement with twitter sneers and sackings. The Russian syndrome of falling fatally from high windows ensures disagreement will pragmatically be withheld.

Intercepted call of Russian soldier in Kherson complaining about constant retreating under heavy Ukrainian fire. His friend keeps wondering how is it possible that Russians have no weapons to resist effectively.

[quote]We all used to think of Putin as a criminal mastermind, now it’s more and more apparent he’s just a loudmouth, ignorant,

Yes, but this has a lot to do with his army not getting the funding compared to what western countries spend on developing and maintaining their defense. Cyber attacks and bot farms and developing a psychological strategy to influence people's opinions on social media, doesn't cost a lot of money. Getting hundreds of soldiers moving, high tech weapons, the whole infrastructure of war does cost a lot of money. Money that Putin doesn't want to spend because all the money usually goes to him and his oligarchs.

Besides initially Putin believed he could take Kiev in a Blitzkrieg scenario, topple the government and install his puppet Yanucovych again. I don't think they planned for a months or a years long war.

Why have MAGAts not run over to their BFF Russia with their personal armories, to help him out?

Do MAGAts not know Poots is one of Fat Donnie's BFFs? How can they just sit around with their pistols up their flaccid assholes, letting him get humiliated on a global scale like this?

Has Tucker not given MAGAts permission to go, yet? Do they need a hall pass?

[quote]Why have MAGAts not run over to their BFF Russia with their personal armories, to help him out?

They don't own passports, don't understand the need or concept.

This would actually be hilarious. The MAGAts who weren't offed by covid, because they rather squirted bleach up their anus than getting vaccinated, head to Donbas to have a rendezvous with a HIMARS. Karma for putting the world through 4 years of Trump!

The less of these people vote in November, the better.

"@maryilyushina

Russian-installed "governor" in Kherson region asks Moscow to evacuate residents to Russia out of security risks. "We know that Russia does not abandon its own," Vladimir Saldo said. Another sign that the standing of Russian forces in the region is in jeopardy."

[quote] "We know that Russia does not abandon its own," Vladimir Saldo said.

Poor sweet country mouse!

France will not use nuclear weapons against #Russia if Putin decides to launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine, President #Macron said in an interview with France 2.

A nuclear attack against Ukraine will not provoke a nuclear, but a powerful military response. - EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell.

Nor will anyone else, but it's imprudent of Macron to state it plainly for the Russians to use for propaganda.

Yeah, I don't get why those fucking dummies are doing that. They are basically signalling to the Russians that if they tactically nuke Ukraine nothing will happen except oh, likely some more economic sanctions and weapons provided to Ukraine.

[quote]Getting hundreds of soldiers moving, high tech weapons, the whole infrastructure of war does cost a lot of money. Money that Putin doesn't want to spend because all the money usually goes to him and his oligarchs.

And part of the money that does end up going to the army gets embezzled there.

Ukraine is saying only 10 missiles hit their targets in the last week. Out of about two hundred. Almost all the others were destroyed by missile defense systems.

That's amazing!

R187 what fascinates me is that the Russian trolls like to bleat on about how corrupt Ukraine is as an argument against Ukraine when the CPI (Corruption Perceptions Index Rank) has placed Russia a bunch of places below Ukraine for years.

Update to R181: the government in Moscow says that it will organize the transfer of civilians from the Kherson region to other regions...

Not a very confident sign of how things are going for the Russians in terms of the Kherson front.

Earlier this year I spent some time with a college friends who 's retired from the army and two other guys who are also retired military. We talked about Ukraine, Russia and the Biden Administration's response.

Since then I've been in touch with one the the guys and weeks ago he started talking about Russia using a small tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine (Putin's being pushed into a corner) . He says we should NOT use a nuke in response. He believes that the only thing Russia really understands is hard punch in the face, so take out parts of their military. Sink vessels, take out some submarines. That the Russians will understand, that might make them back down.

Interesting idea - one I actually like.

R191 so that's NATO entering the war, you're saying?

R186, these guys can say whatever they want in public, especially if it’s what the markets want to hear. Real discussions about nuclear weapons seem like the sort of thing that would be handled through private, confidential communications.

R193 Nah, I believe them that they wouldn't use nuclear. But why tf do you say it out loud? Keep Putin guessing.

R193 Also, did the markets go up when he said that? I don't see that either.

An AP investigation found that officials have deported Ukrainian children to Russia or Russian-held territories without consent, lied to them that they were not wanted by their parents, used them for propaganda and given them Russian citizenship.

R195, it's probably more important that they not tank. Besides, nuclear theater has been developed over many decades; I don't think that we can assume that government officials don't know what they're doing when they make public pronouncements.

France did not even believe that Russia would invade Ukraine. What the fuck do they know? Macron doesn't 'get' Putin at all. He actually seems to think that Putin is a rational actor when he's not. Putin lies all the time and Macron keeps thinking he can reason with Putin. It's embarrassing to watch.

^France needs to stick to baguettes.

A Ukrainian drone has engaged a Russian drone in aerial combat and brought it down. !!!

In the video, our view is the Ukrainian drone. The other drone appears to be moving but it’s our drone thar actually is. It swoops down on the Russian drone and then comes down upon its whirring props, breaking one. Then you see the Russian drone again as it begins its death descent.

^^^ Russian drones are insatiable bottoms

Close-up of Crimea bridge foundation reveals janky cut-rate construction quality

Russia in a single picture.

I'd hazard a guess that the Russians are evacuating all Russia-friendly residents of Kherson in anticipation of them (Russia) bombing the hell out of Kherson once the Ukrainians take it.

Assuming they have any bombs left by then, R204.

R204, Russia has only two strategies: seize territory and commit mass murder, or bomb everything to ashes. That's why people have to fight back, there's no other option.

They’re not really bombing, r204. The Russian Air Force has been surprisingly passive in this war.

It’s been eighty years since the Russian Air Force faced a peer adversary (world war 2 was really the last time) and their pilots seem to have very low aggression and very high sense of self preservation. These are not traits seen as ideal in modern her combat pilots.

They could use missiles, rockets or artillery, and if Kherson falls, they may well do that but why? Those assets are better used as part of combat operations.

^^^ jet, not her

It's 14 October in Ukraine, so happy Ukraine Defenders Day!

[quote]On 14 October 2014, a decree by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko decreed the new public holiday "Defender of Ukraine Day" due to the Russian military intervention in Ukraine (2014–present) and decommunization in Ukraine. This decree was approved by the Ukrainian parliament on 5 March 2015. The holiday replaced the former 23 February's holiday called "Defender of the Fatherland Day", which had its origin in the Soviet Union. As the Ukrainian SSR, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union from 1922 until Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union on 24 August 1991. President Poroshenko had proclaimed that Ukraine should not celebrate the holidays of the "military-historical calendar of Russia" but "We will honor the defenders of our homeland, not someone else's".

The bodies of the cannon fodder are already returning to Russia.

[quote]@francis_scarr Pro-war blogger Anastasia Kashevarova is outraged by reports of zinc coffins with the bodies of recently mobilised men already returning to Russian cities. "You told us there would be training, that they wouldn't be sent to the front after a week"

Elon Musk is allegedly no longer able to fund Starlink in Ukraine, reports CNN. Asks Pentagon to pick up the tab.

Elon probably got orders from Putin.

Hasn't the US been funding Starlink in Ukraine from the beginning?

R192, I guess that would be correct, but the term NATO was part of the conversation I had.

~R191

The Guardian has a story about a father and son who are on opposite sides in the war.

"While most young Ukrainians were concerned for the safety of their parents, Artur, 27, had a different message for his father, Oleg, a colonel in the pro-Moscow separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.

“You assholes,” the text to his father read.

“Don’t pick up a gun. Kyiv will fall immediately,” Oleg replied after some time.

Artur did not follow his father’s advice and quickly enlisted as a volunteer, taking part in Ukraine’s successful defence of the capital, which ended with the withdrawal of Russian forces from the region in April."

Then:

"In early March, after most Russian troops had been repelled from Kyiv, Artur sent a short video message to his father, mocking him for his earlier warning about the fall of the capital. “I am walking around but can’t see a single Russian. They seem to have disappeared. Can you please advise, I don’t understand where they are?” he said in the video.

Oleg replied that Russia’s fortunes would soon change, once again urging his son to drop his weapons. Artur says “At that point, I already saw that his hopes of a Russian victory were dwindling. He started to become more desperate as Ukraine was gaining more ground.”

Russia is unlikely to be able to keep up the current pace of its attacks on civil infrastructure because it’s running low on precision-guided missiles.

Yes r216 and they don’t have circuitry they need to manufacture the guidance systems on their own.

They can make stuff like laser range finders for tanks, because they developed a home brewed industry for that. But when it comes to the incredibly complicated guidance systems in a kalibr cruise missile, they just don’t have the native industry to do it.

And tbh that’s not a slap at them. Many high tech industrial nations don’t have native defense industries. As an example, the Japanese, a bona fide industrial giant, buy their fighter jet engines from us. Why? Because Japan does not have a huge military, and it’s a real investment in industrial resources to develop a jet fighter engine industry. It would be a huge investment in resources, and for what? Easier to just buy the engines from the Americans and their Goliath of a military industry.

But if we suddenly turned cold on Japan and shut off the valve, they’d be in a pickle. That’s where Russia is now regarding the most sophisticated circuitry for their high tech weapons.

Putin was forced by his mentally ill Zed ultranationalists to expend cruise missiles to hurt the people of Ukraine and damage the cities he spuriously claimed he saw as the birthplace of Russian identity. Those are cruise missiles they can’t replace.

Thanks, Bootsy, you have incredibly insightful posts. Where does Russia buy most of this complex circuitry? Btw, Biden wanting to bring back chip development is a great idea, and is because that technology and the ability to obtain chips should be home grown.

From r216 , What hardliners in Russia what Putin to do to Ukraine:

For the TLDR crowd: "Bomb Ukraine back into the Middle Ages."

[quote] But no matter how many times Russia fires at Ukraine, pro-war Russian nationalists want more, even though targeting civilian infrastructure is potentially a war crime.

[quote] “It has to be done constantly, not just once but for two to five weeks to totally disable all their infrastructure, all thermal power stations, all heating and power stations, all power plants, all traction substations, all power lines, all railway hubs,” said Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Kremlin’s Council on Interethnic Relations.

[quote] “Then, Ukraine will descend into cold and darkness,” Bezpalko said on state television. “They won’t be able to bring in ammunition and fuel and then the Ukrainian army will turn into a crowd of armed men with chunks of iron.”

[quote] Russian journalist Andrei Medvedev, a member of the Moscow city council, who runs a popular hard line nationalist pro-war Telegram channel, urged patience, saying the decision “to bomb Ukraine into the Middle Ages” had not yet been taken.

[quote] Another hawk, Alexander Kots, the war correspondent of Komsomolskaya Pravda, who has his own influential pro-war Telegram channel, said he hoped the strikes signaled a new kind of warfare that would bombard Ukraine “until it loses its ability to function.”

Hard to know how accurate this is but of high-precision missiles left the Ukrainians think the Russians have used 1,235 and have 609 remaining: 124 missiles for Iskander systems (ground-launched), 272 Kalibr missiles (sea-launched), 213 Kh-101, Kh-555 cruise missiles (air-launched).

Putin has had enough of the nationalist milbloggers reporting bad news and complaining about the management of the war. Girkin, Strelkov, WarGonzo, GreyZone, Rybar and others are now under criminal investigation for discrediting Russia's Armed Forces. Too bad since they were actually quite useful for some accurate information.

Ok what is the deal? What does Ukraine have that pootie so desperately wants? Is he having a temper tantrum now or is there something material he gets if he scores Ukraine?

R221 I believe it’s all a ruse to distract Russians from the pathetic, never-getting-anywhere, state their country is in.

Ukraine is apparently the world’s number one supplier of neon gas, which is used to make computer chips. And it the largest supplier of wheat to poor African nations that export the rare earth metals that are needed to make computer chips.

(The majority of high-tech computer chips are currently made in Taiwan.)

FWIW

[quote]Ukrainians think the Russians have used 1,235 and have 609 remaining

That doesn't sound like enough to bomb the country into submission the way the maniac quoted at R219 wants, especially since the Ukrainians are successfully shooting down more than half of those launched.

It surprises me that the Russians don't have the capacity to produce the circuitry systems necessary to guide missiles. Is this due to a brain drain in the 90s when their economy collapsed, corruption, or simply overlooking something really important for a nation that's continuously fighting conflicts? Who were their suppliers and how likely are they to come through?

Lukashenko has given at least 67 tanks and 28 Urals (military trucks) to Putin in a week.

Ukraine has a bunch of fairly recently discovered natural gas and, I think, also oil. Russia doesn't want the competition. They also don't want another country to have control of the Black Sea, which is there only warm water port that's close to anything.

Russia is also kind of paranoid, so likes to have buffer states to make its core easier to defend.

Seriously, the more history I read, the more I like being an American.

[quote]They also don't want another country to have control of the Black Sea

Oh, they don't?

[quote]It surprises me that the Russians don't have the capacity to produce the circuitry systems necessary to guide missiles.

R227 that almost makes up for the tanks and other equipment Russia "donated" to Ukraine.

R230, by not diversifying the Russian economy and instead making the country dependent on the sale of natural resources, Putin could control access to wealth. A diverse, innovative economy is potentially much harder for an authoritarian government to manage.

Lukashenko should think carefully about depleting his limited military stocks, he may need that equipment to control his own people after his next fraudulent landslide election.

If Kazakhstan and Ukraine wanted, they could cut off Russia's access to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea.

R234, Kazakhstan is feeling the heat over Russia's imperialist ambitions. They know that if Ukraine is allowed to be stolen, Russia wants their country next.

[quote] By not diversifying the Russian economy and instead making the country dependent on the sale of natural resources, Putin could control access to wealth.

R232 And perhaps even more so now that some oligarchs fell out of windows.

[quote] Ok what is the deal? What does Ukraine have that pootie so desperately wants?

Ukraine has many raw materials, particularly in the Donbas. But that’s not why Putin invaded.

When you listen to him talk about Ukraine, there’s one word he’s used over and over AND OVER again.

“Territory.”

It’s a land to be possessed. And he feels it should be Russian. He sees the west and particularly the hated foe, the USA, as grabbing at this territory. Bit by bit he’s been creeping up to this. Now he’s finally gone for it.

By the way the Russians aren’t stupid. Despite a shambolic rollout of the conquest of Ukraine, they see themselves winning. Because of their nuclear weapons, they can attack Ukraine’s industry and resources (with conventional weapons) but Ukraine cannot attack back (or risk getting nuked I mean).

They see the west and USA as Ukraine’s only saviors, and they’re banking on short attention spans and the rise of alt-right governments to decouple the west from Ukraine. They might not be wrong.

R226, the top integrated circuits/semiconductor firms are concentrated in a really small number of countries:

China

South Korea

Singapore

Malaysia

USA

Japan

Germany

Philippines

Netherlands

Thailand

Russia isn’t even on the map. By the way, Biden’s ultra-tough new sanctions on Chinese chips are incredibly potent and are going to really wallop Chinese semiconductor manufacture.

[quote] they’re banking on short attention spans and the rise of alt-right governments to decouple the west from Ukraine. They might not be wrong.

They were also hoping to take Kviv after the initial invasion. See how well that went.

The West has largely maintained a united front. Should be noted that if the West/USA falters, who is to say that the aggression shown to Ukraine won’t be shown elsewhere?

Further (governmental) extremism in the USA would have ripple effects on the outcome of the struggle. Gives further urgency and meaning to the midterms to promote non-Magat candidates.

Girkin/Stelkov seems to have been sent to the frontline to lead a volunteer group. The Ukrainians would definitely love to get their hands on him.

*Strelkov (it's his pseudonym - meaning Rifleman or Shooter)

Has somebody watched the 'Putin Files' series on youtube? Fascinating insight into the man from people who have broad knowledge of how Russia works and what makes Putin tick.

Vladimir Kara Murza compares Putin to Mussolini.

R238 you forgot Taiwan on your list.

The Kremlin has confirmed reports that Russia is transferring dual-equipped Iskander-M systems to Belarus and re-equipping some Belarusian Su-25 aircraft with the technical capability to carry nuclear weapons.

A bit chilling - either Russia is doing this to terrorize (imo more likely) or are planning a tactical nuke on Ukraine.

Juicy. "A Norweigan court on Friday ordered a 50-year-old Russian national held in custody for two weeks as he admitted to flying two drones over the country, potentially over critical energy infrastructure.

He was detained on Tuesday with three passports in his luggage, two Russian ones and one Israeli, according to local Norweigan media.

Authorities also seized four terabytes of data, some of it encrypted.

Customs officers reportedly located two drones and numerous electronic storage devices during a routine check at the border crossing in Storskog, the only border crossing between Norway, a NATO member, and Russia."

Photo of R245's subject has been released by Norwegian media.

Currently there are no signs that Belarus is mobilizing its admittedly small army, which might be "political suicide" for its Russia-dependent regime. However, it has been sending its own tanks to Russia to supplement what must be a diminishing Russian supply of military equipment.

[quote]They see the west and USA as Ukraine’s only saviors, and they’re banking on short attention spans...They might not be wrong.

Yes, the fact that every person in The West has been in some way impacted by Putin's illegal invasion is sure to be forgotten quite soon. Those huge newsroom maps of Ukraine discussed by experts daily; the new war footage broadcast daily preceded by warnings of distressing content; all this and more will just be waved away like last season's fashions. Because that's how we all are in the decadent West.

[quote] They see the west and USA as Ukraine’s only saviors, and they’re banking on short attention spans

Commentators have pointed out that Putin is banking on more than just the West's short attention. He wants a negotiated deal- on his terms, which means he gets to keep Crimea, the eastern regions, and Ukraine remains neutral and doesn't join NATO. He gives up NOT taking all for Ukraine (for now.) How could he ever get all this? Elon Musk advocating for this deal is not enough so.... Putin believes that when he turns off the gas for heat this winter, the population of Germany and other countries suffering in freezing cold will force their leaders to force Ukraine to negotiate. This may be flawed thinking on his part, but for Putin, it's worth a try. General Winter, again Russia's most important commander.

Germany has almost filled their gas storage which is enough for about two cold winter months.

To be honest, the fact that Putin is using this as a tactic is all the more reason why it needs to be resisted now and other solutions found. Yes, there may be some hardships but they're better than giving into Russian blackmail just because one's energy bills are high. I say this as an European. It's terrifying. Nobody here seriously wants to be ruled by a backwards shithole like Russia.

Russia is using facial recognition from security cameras and the subway FacePay system to track down mobilization evaders in Moscow.

I have a feeling that Europeans, who endured hardship through two world wars, will make it through just fine.

[quote[R238] you forgot Taiwan on your list.

Factored into China I believe so as not to piss off the PRC.

Putin now says that he's willing to supply the EU with the gas for winter. But Germany is rejecting that offer.

[quote] President Vladimir Putin has said the gas taps can be still turned on for Russian supplies to the EU, despite sharp political disagreements.

[quote] Russia has not delivered gas to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 line since August, and Nord Stream 2 was halted after Russia invaded Ukraine.

[quote] The February invasion led to gas price hikes, and EU customers face record tariffs this winter.

[quote] But Germany quickly rejected Mr Putin's offer to send gas via Nord Stream 2.

[quote] At the same time, a government spokesman in Berlin said Nord Stream 1 - which is not under sanctions - was an option, but gas was not flowing "because Russia did not deliver".

[quote] Russia has been accused of using gas supplies as a weapon against the West since the invasion of Ukraine - a charge repeatedly denied by the Kremlin.

[quote] "The ball, as they say, is now in the European Union's court - let them just open the tap," Mr Putin said on Wednesday at the annual Russian Energy Week in Moscow.

[quote] "We do not limit anyone in anything," he said, adding that Moscow was ready to supply additional volumes of gas in the autumn-winter period.

[quote] But despite Mr Putin's words, a resumption of gas supplies to Europe seems unlikely.

It appears that nobody in the EU trusts Putin on his generous offer. "Fool me once", and all.

Germany should take the gas but just not pay until Russia withdraws from Ukraine.

Wonderful, R254 it has been refreshing to see the EU finally showing a bit of teeth. Too little and almost too late, but better late than never.

According to Russia media, two Russian army volunteers “from an unnamed ex-Soviet nation” fired on their fellow soldiers, killing 11 and wounding 15 others before being killed themselves.

Also: Freshly mobilised Russians already returning home… in lead coffins 💀💀

R257, yikes. I wonder which ex-Soviet country.

Tajikistan, apparently.

Many Tajikis have dual Russian and Tajikistan citizenship, and quite a few Tajikis are serving in Ukraine. Very curious as to why these guys went apeshit like this.

Are there many ethnic Tajiks in Russia? I've read that men with ethnic backgrounds were mobilized first. Reprisal, perhaps?

Tajikistan is currently engaged in a little friction with Kyrgyzstan. That entire region is becoming destabilized thanks to Putin's little ill-fated adventure.

And meanwhile, the president of Tajikistan gave Putin a talking down-to. My how the dynamics are shifting over there.

Might thus be when people start waking up and turning on Putin? Things are sounding incredibly bleak and chaotic back home. He's mobilizing from the educated classes who comprise an important part of the workforce. Who will fill their jobs? I've read St. Petersburg schools are threatened with close downs because male teachers have either been drafted or left the country. In many cases, their wives who are also teachers are leaving with them.

Putin screwed the pooch.

Everyone has seen the pathetic small man behind the curtain now. He will never earn back whatever respect he once had and everyone now knows Russia is nothing more than a paper tiger.

[quote] Might thus be when people start waking up and turning on Putin?

So many of these countries have been under Russia's oppressive thumb/sphere of influence for so long now. With the entire world watching and laughing at Russia, maybe some of them are seeing this as an opportunity to assert themselves.

Interesting and very detailed video on how corruption on every level of the Russian military has left it in its current disasterous shape

The Russian people are depoliticized. They have turned the government over to Putin as long as his hijinks don’t interfere too much with their day to day lives.

That’s why he was so reluctant to call it a war and call up conscripts who were not then serving — it breaks that compact between the people and Putin. But now his hand has been forced by the disastrous counterattack by Ukraine, and by the never ending complaints of his ultra right wing. The people have been depoliticized for so long they don’t really have any mechanism to push back against the government.

Most of the newly-conscripted men from Siberia dancing in this video were dead withing 2 weeks. Wiped out after being sent to Donbas. ~200 killed.

[quote]Factored into China I believe so as not to piss off the PRC.

Taiwan makes the most sophisticated chips. Biden's proposal to collaborate with Taiwan is very smart in many ways!!

Everyone involved in the abduction of Ukrainian children deserve to go to trial and face retribution for war crimes.

THIS ALONE is why asshole Weaselface Musk should go and fuck those ponies he offers to his female employees, as a tradeoff to close their eyes and let him blow a load in their guts. Demanding a people who have had their children stolen like this, to lay down arms and give up? I suppose Weaselface wouldn't care if he lost some kids, since he personally has so many, but the Ukrainians obviously aren't craven sacks of feces like he is.

Biden is really a badass!!

👇👇👇

Biden Is Now All-In on Taking Out China

....

Last Friday, however, a dense regulatory filing from a little-known federal agency gave the strongest hint yet of U.S. intentions. The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced new extraterritorial limits on the export to China of advanced semiconductors, chip-making equipment, and supercomputer components. The controls, more so than any earlier U.S. action, reveal a single-minded focus on thwarting Chinese capabilities at a broad and fundamental level. Although framed as a national security measure, the primary damage to China will be economic, on a scale well out of proportion to Washington’s cited military and intelligence concerns. The U.S. government imposed the new rules after limited consultation with partner countries and companies, proving that its quest to hobble China ranks well above concerns about the diplomatic or economic repercussions.

....

Don’t make me cut you with the EAR regulations. - Dark Brandon

Thanks for sharing, R273! I wish Dems were better at sharing all of his accomplishments and the media covered them instead of focusing on Trump. Biden has done so much good and most Americans have no clue.

@francis_scarr

Last night the body of Russian military draft officer Roman Malyk was found hanging on a fence in the town of Partizansk (near Vladivostok). It reportedly showed signs of suicide, but "local residents doubt that he could have killed himself"

R262, there's now talk that the two soldiers who killed other soldiers might have been conscripts, not volunteers. That would make more sense.

The majority of Russia's nuclear missles must be several decades old by this point and they've had numerous malfunctions now using their standard missles. There must be some concern that a Russian nuclear missle could detonate directly at its launch point.

^Shades of Wile E. Coyote.

Interesting thread about the possible origins of the Tajik soldiers and mobilization targeted at ethnic minorities.

What has Putin wrought?

This is front page story in the Washington Post today 10/16/22 (some highlights):

[quote]Russia is grabbing men off the street to fight in Ukraine

[quote] Police and military officers swooped down on a Moscow business center this past week unannounced. They were looking for men to fight in Ukraine — and they seized nearly every one they saw. Some musicians, rehearsing. A courier there to deliver a parcel. A man from a Moscow service agency, very drunk, in his mid-50s, with a walking disability.

[quote] Police and military press-gangs in recent days have snatched men off the streets and outside Metro stations. They’ve lurked in apartment building lobbies to hand out military summonses. They’ve raided office blocks and hostels. They’ve invaded cafes and restaurants, blocking the exits.

[quote] At a predawn sweep on the Mipstroy1 construction company dormitories on Thursday, they took more than 200 men. On Oct. 9, they rounded up dozens at a Moscow shelter for the homeless...

[quote] Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that 222,000 of the 300,000 target had been conscripted and that the process would be completed within two weeks. Pro-war hard-liners insist a second round will be needed.

R280, so they are seizing men from Central Asia off of the streets and forcing them to sign “voluntary” conscription papers (and beating them if they don’t). Then these men are given perfunctory basic training—and guns.

Putin is emblematic of the 'sunk cost fallacy'. Democracy may be flawed but dictators almost always turn bad and screw over their country in ways like this.

Add up the losses to the Russian economy of the hundreds of thousands conscripted, plus the even larger number of those that have fled the country or who have gone into hiding internally on top of the damage from the sanctions. There's going to be complete desruption of goods and services, and probably eventually starvation in some areas.

WTAF..

"A UN official claimed Russia is using rape as its “military strategy” in Ukraine — providing soldiers with drugs to sexually assault civilians.

“When you hear women testify about Russian soldiers equipped with Viagra, it’s clearly a military strategy,” Pramila Patten, UN special representative on sexual violence in conflict, told the AFP.

Patten added that the UN has verified “more than a hundred cases” of rape or sexual assault since the invasion began in February. Victims have largely included girls and women, but boys and men have been raped, too."

Re: R285: I hope Russia's nukes blow up in their disgusting, raping faces and wipe them off the earth

That press gang stuff is crazy--pulling men out of restaurants, off streets, etc. Men with guns with nothing to lose--all being funneled through Moscow (because that's how the train lines work).

I don't see how the center holds.

Explosions in Kyiv this morning while power infrastructure all over Ukraine is being targeted. It's relentless and still seems that Putin has maximalist goals.

I'd love to see Ukraine set off some bombs in Moscow or St Petersburg infrastructure sites -- you want total war? This is what it looks like.

And fire-bomb the fuck out of Putin's new €200,000,000 palace in the Crimea while you're at it.

War in Ukraine ·LIVE Kyiv hit by kamikaze drones in renewed attack on capital, presidential office reports.

Several Ukrainian officials say the capital was attacked by kamikaze drones on Monday morning after at least three explosions were reported. Several residential buildings in the central area of Shevchenkivskyi have been damaged. The renewed attack on Kyiv comes a week after 19 people were killed in a Russian missile attack that targeted the city during rush hour, the BBC reports.

4 of the Iranian kamikaze drones reached their targets, including hitting residential building while 15 drones where destroyed while approaching Kyiv. Putin has ordered thousands of those things yuck.

R289 I am surprised that hasn't happened, yet.

With the current grim security situation in #Ukraine, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese Embassy in Ukraine on Sat urge Chinese citizens in the country to enhance safety precautions and evacuate. The Embassy will assist in organizing the evacuation of people in need

(Tweeted by Zhang Meifang China Government Official 2 days ago)

The world would be a much better place if Moscow were wiped off the face of the earth. The barbarians in the Kremlin continually prove they’re beyond reason.

R285, sadly and shockingly nothing new for the Russian forces. Look what they did in Germany.

R273 R274 R275 I don't think important assets should be foreign owned and I hate the way China bullies Asian countries but...isn't the US kind of overstretching itself?

R269 Suddenly they have an incentive! Things could get much worse for them. How tragic! Could you guess why the Chinese embassy in Ukraine was asking Chinese citizens to evacuate from Ukraine? They advised them many months ago and once again a couple of days ago.

Ukraine’s Interior Affairs Minister: 36 out of 42 Shahed drones were downed today.

At least 4 people have been found dead under rubble in central Kyiv.

Huge amounts of sunflower oil runs down the streets of Mykolaiv after a Russian drone attack damages 2 tanks holding 7,500 tons of oil each - Putin wants to cause a global food crisis to try to dent support for the war - that terminal handles 17% of global sunflower oil.

Because of Iran's support Israel has signalled that they may help Ukraine prompting Dmitry Medvedev to warn that would destroy Russo-Israeli diplomatic ties.

Only about 20 of the 1000s of missiles and drones have hit their targets, according to the defense ministry. Everything's fine.

Moscow's mayor says that mobilization is over and that all open mobilization orders are no longer valid, so the draft dodgers can go back now. Truly crazy an episode.

^^^ "Come back to Moscow," said the spider to the fly.

Russian competence - footage is circulating of a military plane - likely a SU-34 jet - which has crashed into a block of flats in the Russian city of Yeysk. Judging by the bangs, it was loaded up with ammunition

R300, the mayor might not be in sync with the Kremlin, which hasn’t confirmed that the mobilization is over. If I had fled the country, I wouldn’t feel safe going back.

The Russians also hit an electrical substation n the eastern region of Sumy this morning and four people have been confirmed to be killed, meaning that at least eight people have died in total as a result of drone and rocket attacks in Ukraine today.

"The target is to destroy all of Ukraine's infrastructure, to leave people freezing, without electricity," said Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. “This is not a war against the military, it is a war for the destruction of Ukrainians."

They probably just realized how fucked their economy will be thanks to the loss of ~1 million men (between the mobilized and those who left). They also need those men to come back for the next wave of mobilization after the first 300,000 come back in body bags.

Air defense is engaging with several drones over Kyiv tonight. Seems like Putin's strategy is to send dozens of drones out every day and night to terrorize.

[quote]Russian competence - footage is circulating of a military plane - likely a SU-34 jet - which has crashed into a block of flats in the Russian city of Yeysk. Judging by the bangs, it was loaded up with ammunition

Russian competence or Russian sabatoge?

There seems to be several ammunition explosions in Russia lately

R308, according to reports, one of its engines caught fire. There may be a design or manufacturing flaw with that aircraft; earlier in the war one of them crashed into a Ukrainian apartment complex.

Whoopsie-doodles!

Well, the pilot eject button worked correctly

[QUOTE]Well, the pilot eject button worked correctly

Of, course it did, so he couldn't steer anymore...

Elon Musk @elonmusk13h Exceptionally well-said

David Sacks @DavidSacks

My latest op-ed for Newsweek:

Neocons and the Woke Left Are Joining Hands and Leading Us to Woke War III

Somebody's seriously pushing the line that the "woke left" is forcing us to support Ukraine? The broad center-left in America is pro-Ukraine; the extreme leftists tend to support Putin.

What is it with Musk, Zuckerberg and Bezos?

Soulless,soulless men.

Musk drifting towards Putin and Trump is revolting.

[bold]Don't Be a Tankie: How the Left Should Respond to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine[/bold]

No the right supports Putin.

The right supports Putin, but so do the few so-called "far leftists" who reflexively oppose anything the US or NATO does. I guess that makes them leftist only in name, since they're supporting an extractive colonialist autocracy.

Russia is blatantly a kleptocracy as well so it weirds me out that 'left wingers' would support that. (I wouldn't even call it an oligarchy since the oligarchs don't actually have much real power - they're subject to whatever Putin wants.)

I was shocked to discover Jill Stein had a Putin connection.

I think even "kleptocracy" gives the Russian system too much dignity—it's more like a patronage state with no predictability or accountability at all.

This thread has aged poorly.

Russian media are reporting that the death toll of the SU-34 jet that crashed in Yeysk is 13 now. I wouldn't be shocked if that number goes up. Russians killing their own; just another self-own of their disastrous invasion.

R323, to the contrary, the comments which have aged the poorest belong to the pro-Putin/pro-Russian trolls (maybe you?) who assured us that Russia was going to make quick work of Ukraine. What happened with that? I mean, it's been eight months?

Most wars last years. Ukraine is the underdog here - Russia was the 2nd most powerful military in the world - they still have a ton of tanks, missiles, conscripts and so on. It isn't going to be easy or short.

[quote] Russia was the 2nd most powerful military in the world

Key word= WAS.

Past tense.

Sham of a military now: decimated by corruption.

As this continues, not only will the military be whittled away, so will Russia’s economy and the standard of living of its populace. That’s the effect of sanctions.

Even China is now backing away from the Ruskies. Not to mention the Russian populace who are now forced to send sons, husbands, brothers, fathers and now...,female doctors and nurses.

Will not be pretty for Ukraine, but as supplies dwindle in Russia, their winter will be deeply unpleasant, if not brutal (while the West infuses Ukraine with what it needs.)

No R296, Biden is doing the absolute correct thing. China can't take Taiwan now, their military is much smaller than the US and esp smaller than NATO and all combined western alliances willing to defend Taiwan. To prevent them from supercharging their military more, they need to be cut off from the industry that makes them money and advances their manufacturing sector. That's the chip industry. Biden cuts into their future capabilities where it hurts them the most!

Biden is a really shrewd guy!

People need to VOTE!!!

[QUOTE]They still have a ton of tanks, missiles, conscripts and so on.

Do they, really? Please tell us more about their bountiful military cornucopia that keeps on giving back to "Mother Russia."

You know, that "mother" who sends her children in fall and winter as untrained cannon-targets underfed, underclothed to effectively die, regardless of their potential contribution to society or how many God-believing alleged "Christians" loved them.

R329 Yes, they really do. It's just denial to say otherwise. I think that they eventually will but this war is going to be long and difficult for the Ukrainians to finally drive the Russians out.

Massive attack on energy infrastructure facilities this morning. Kyiv - three strikes on an energy supply facility in Desnyansky district. Dnipro, 2 strikes at energy infrastructure facility. No electricity or running water in the central Ukrainian city of Zhytomyr (population 260,000) after Russian missile strikes this morning. The strategy of targeting energy and water continues.

About the Iranian Shahed drones which are going to be a real problem.

FT: “These Iranian drones are effectively cheap cruise missiles with a long range and good accuracy. While they are easier to shoot down, they are so cheap that you can use several to overwhelm air defences,” said Jeremy Binnie, Middle East specialist at Janes, a defence intelligence company.

Last week, Zelenskyy said Russia had ordered 2,400 more of the unmanned aerial vehicles, which are largely built from off-the-shelf components, can be programmed to fly automatically towards a set of GPS co-ordinates, and carry a hefty 30kg warhead.

The Iranian drones’ ease of use and relatively low cost of around $20,000 apiece, compared with over $4mn for a cruise missile, mean they can be used in swarms.

That makes it harder and more expensive for Ukraine’s limited air defence systems to stop them. Alongside the longer-range Mohajer-6 drone, equivalent to a TB2, they can be used for stand-off strikes behind enemy lines and to sow fear among the civilian population.

“Only one drone needs to get through the air defences to hit the target,” said Binnie, who estimates that Iran has made several hundred of the Shahed-136 drones and still has plentiful stockpiles.

Ukraine’s military has said it had destroyed 37 drones since Sunday evening, about 85 per cent of the number launched.

Still, the seriousness of the situation is reflected in how the attacks have wiped out a third of the country’s electricity infrastructure.

Tehran is also reportedly poised to send to Moscow Fateh-100 and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles, according to the Washington Post.

Things really aren't looking that great for Ukraine. Not sure what's going on that's so great for them. I'm going to tune out—it's depressing and any good news is ultimately not exactly true.

R332, you're also the poster saying that the Russians have been very restrained, so I would take whatever you say with a grain of salt.

[quote]any good news is ultimately not exactly true.

Well, this is just categorically false. You're a troll.

I'm surprised they can't use radio (and or GPS) jamming to disable the Shahed drones.

The fact that Russia needs to import rudimentary drone technology from a 4th rate power reveals a great deal about the state of their army and its weapons stockpiles, and of Russian military manufacturing capability.

The Ukrainians have an excellent intelligence network and are receiving a great deal of Western help; I wonder if they might interdict Iranian deliveries of these drones, whether by land or by sea.

Idk why people are so dismissive of these drones. 1 cruise missile costs the same as 200 Shahed drones. So they are so cheap that you can send off a swarm and if one or two gets through, that's effective. They have severely affected power already.

On the flipside, this is not a MILITARY target so it's very much indicative of Russian failure on the battlefield. This is about genocide, about trying to batten down the Ukrainian will and resistance, making them freeze over winter, destroying their lives so that they will end up giving in for a ceasefire. I personally doubt it will work but that's what Russia appears to be aiming for. It's nasty as hell.

Yes, Rory. I also have the sense that the Ukrainians will become better at fending off the drones and or intercepting their transmission.

This is a relatively new tack for Russia after they were humiliated in the annexed areas. Remember also, that Putin has gone through various military commanders and his most recent (very recent) iteration is a guy known for playing DIRTY as R337 states by going after civilians and the populace due to battle failures.

Keep in mind Iran has its uprisings going on and the West is none to happy about this either. So the Iran-Russia alliance is quite nasty atm.

Hopefully the West can advise Ukraine and thwart the newest shift in attacks by coming up with a plan to defend as well as creatively proceed Oman aggressive manner against Russia as they were doing in the annexed regions.

There have been twists and turns in this war, but over the long term....Russia is at a huge disadvantage.

Maybe Ukraine can declare war on Iran and help topple the regime.

NATO intelligence should be able to help in interdicting the drone shipments.

Looking at a map I feel like it would be tough to intercept them. Iran can just move them to Russia via Georgia/Armenia/Azerbaijan and then the drones can fly 600 miles.

This sounds quite ominous. Discussing doing something big?

[quote]@haynesdeborah (UK) Defence Secretary @BWallaceMP is in the US on a seemingly hastily-arranged trip. Fellow minister @JSHeappey hinted at what it’s about: “To have the sort of conversations that… beyond belief really the fact we are at a time when these sorts of conversations are necessary.” A defence source - referring to @BWallaceMP's meeting today in the US - said: "The Defence Secretary is in Washington DC to discuss shared security concerns, including Ukraine. He will be visiting his counterpart at the Pentagon and senior figures at the White House.”

Oh my R342!

R341, isn’t Georgia super mad at Russia and harboring lots of Russian anti-war types? And aren’t Armenia and Azerbaijan having a little bit of an armed conflict amongst themselves at the moment? I would think a shipment of arms might find themselves diverted in any of the three countries.

When does Iran decide they need the drones for themselves though, to kill some immodestly dressed ladies making a ruckus?

Video of Ukrainian LE shitting down Iranian drones, with their sidearms

*shooting, not shitting 😂

Yes Putin's tactic is to wear Ukrainians out. These drones fly under the radar and often can't be detected until it's too late. They don't carry much explosives, but can do enough damage to destroy important infrastructure. Really nasty stuff!!

@AFP

#BREAKING German cybersecurity chief sacked over alleged Russia ties: interior ministry

@IMatviyishyn

“Soon Ukraine will turn into the Syria of 2015. No water, no electricity, the whole country is in ruins,” - Russian telegram channel rejoicing, more than 4 thousand likes. Under each message alike. The same in comments to Simonyan’s posts.

What kind of tiny dicks do you have to have to be thrilled that you’re murdering children and gang raping women to death? And with any luck, destroying a huge amount of food so people in Africa and Asia will starve to death.

This is your “contribution” to civilization, that you can’t do anything constructive yourselves but you can destroy anything good anybody else has? What a worthless race.

Dog in the manger syndrome:

“Later on the dog's behaviour is reinterpreted as malicious, a reading made clear in Roger L'Estrange's pithy version: "A churlish envious Cur was gotten into a manger, and there lay growling and snarling to keep the Provender. The Dog eat none himself, and yet rather ventur'd the starving his own Carcase than he would suffer any Thing to be the better for't.

THE MORAL. Envy pretends to no other Happiness than what it derives from the Misery of other People, and will rather eat nothing itself than not to starve those that would."

I was about to post what Elder Lez at r343. Also, doesn't Armenia have a treaty with Russia for protection should they find themselves under attack? An obligation Russia isn't up to meeting ATM... Those drones could be very valuable to a number of groups.

R350 I think it'd still be easy for Russia to move shipments through. Or via the Caspian sea. It doesn't look easy for the Ukrainians to target it while NATO is pointedly trying to stay out of direct action.

I've got the Russian propagand and faux concern trolls on ignore but I'm surprised they are still trying to peddle their shit.

No idea, R349. People like that are born twisted and only worsen as individuals. They go out of their way to make others and our world worse.

If the Ukrainians are actually managing to shoot down the drones, something like Israel's Iron Dome would completely take care of the issue. Israel's tried to stay neutral, but with Iranian drones being used, they might help Ukraine out.

The drone attacks in and of themselves won't win the war for Russia, anymore than the Nazis bombing London did for the Axis.

What's always getting left out of Russia's big military wins is that they were getting equipment from someplace else. In this case, Ukraine has access to the better equipment and they have the will to fight, particularly because people in the captured areas have been treated so horrifically.

And the Kherson rail bridge looks like it will be out 'til next summer. There's a 900-truck back-up for the ferry to Crimea.

In terms of strategic targets, Ukraine's doing well and Russia isn't. The drones over Kiev are horrible, but also kind of a distraction. If Russia had done well, it would have air superiority over Ukraine. It doesn't.

Would a Ukrainian version of Iron Dome be effective against Iranian drones? I haven't heard one way or another. The fact that Israel's now willing to help out Ukraine is promising.

In related news Canada just donated hundreds of thousands of winter military uniforms to Ukraine. Meanwhile, all of Russia's winter military uniforms have mysteriously vanished...

Maybe the Russians will suffer a reverse Napoleon in Ukraine this winter.

R355, any ideas what happened to the winter uniforms? Orders not filled, or the money was just stolen from within and they were never even ordered?

It seems as if the Russians may be preparing to surrender Kherson.

1 - Surovikin, Russian commander for the south, has given an planted 'interview' where he says that "Kyiv may use banned weapons, we can't afford to expose the population to that... hard decisions must be made..." blah blah (preparing public opinion).

2 - In a late-night address posted on Telegram, Russian-installed Kherson official Stremousov calls for people to "evacuate the city as quickly as possible" and says Ukraine "will begin an offensive on the city of Kherson very soon".

However, they've also “warned” that Ukraine is about to hit the Kakhovka dam - it is possible that they will flood Kherson as retribution.

R357: from the sound of it, yet more money siphoned off in the direction of the oligarchs. Superyachts ain't cheap ya know.

Reuters.- Iran agrees to ship missiles, more drones to Russia

[quote] Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface to surface missiles, in addition to more drones, two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats told Reuters, a move that is likely to infuriate the United States and other Western powers. A deal was agreed on Oct. 6 when Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, two senior officials from Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards and an official from the Supreme National Security Council visited Moscow for talks with Russia about the delivery of the weapons.

Time to bombs on the Ayatollah.

^ drop bombs

The Russians were brazenly gloating and so very boastful about their efforts at destabilizing the West with misinformation.

There's more than a little bit of schadenfreude available at seeing their entire region come apart at the seams. The Baltic countries hate them; Ukraine is an unwinnable quagmire; Armenia and Azerbaijan and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are on the brink of war; Kazakhstan is over them. Little fires everywhere have started to become big wildfires.

I guess they should've thought twice before messing with the US?

The Baltics hated them during Soviet times too.

My husband is from Ukraine. He’s a mix of German, Russian, Ukrainian, Swedish, and Polish (in that order). He spent time in each Baltic republic in the 1970’s. He said the Russians ruled with an iron fist. At that time, things were tense in Ukraine (post Shelest), and he said it was far worse there. Lots of Russian police with dogs.

He sat at a cafe drinking coffee. He said the Russians were boorish. Estonians reacted by looking at them with resentment, getting up and leaving.

The Russians are now forcibly using Kherson citizens as a human shield - lining them up - to evacuate their military amongst them without being attacked as they cross to the other bank of the river Dnipro. Just yet another violation. Video of this fake 'humanitarian' op is being shown on Russian TV.

Would be a terrible shame were there an assassination campaign targeting the murderous pro-war radicals of the Duma.

In a few days the EU will announce new sanctions against Iran in connection with arms deliveries to Russia.

Isn't it funny how easily the MAGAts are siding with the raping, looting, torturing, murdering invaders who have always been America's enemies (and still are), because an heir to a frozen food company, Orange Juice Antichrist and Weaselface Musk tell them to?

R368, I was just about to post how will the MAGAts deal with the fact that the Russians and Iranians are now BFFs? Will they now do a 180 and start praising the mullahs and Iranian terrorists the way they praise Putin? It wouldn't be a stretch, considering the, ahem, flexibility of MAGA ideology.

What's Iran's incentive to support Russia?

[quote][R368], I was just about to post how will the MAGAts deal with the fact that the Russians and Iranians are now BFFs? Will they now do a 180 and start praising the mullahs and Iranian terrorists the way they praise Putin? It wouldn't be a stretch, considering the, ahem, flexibility of MAGA ideology.

I for one am SHOCKED you'd consider people who think Donald Trump was surgically altered to look like Joe Biden in January 2021 and is now currently president to be logically inconsistent.

R370, Iran, too, is angry about being sanctioned.

R370, Iran has also worked together with Russia in Syria, another board piece that will be affected by all of this upheaval. Russia had established permanent military bases in Syria, but had to pull its troops--perhaps most of them--out to fight in Ukraine. Iranian-backed troops have moved into those bases.

The Guardian says that the drones are a form of financial warfare for the Russians as well since deploying them is a lot cheaper than what it costs the Ukrainians to down them:

"With the price of the Iranian-made Shahed-136s standing at €20,000 to €50,000 for each vehicle, the total cost to Russia of the failed drone attacks unleashed on Ukraine in recent weeks is estimated by military analysts at the NGO Molfar to be between $11.66m and $17.9m.

Ukraine has deployed a host of weaponry to bring down the drones, including MiG-29 jets, C-300 cruise missiles, Nasams ground defence systems and small-arms fire.

The estimated cost to Ukraine stands at more than $28.14m, according to the analysis, which is based on open sources. The data includes drones launched between 13 September and 17 October."

"@KyivIndependent

Air Force: Ukraine downs 4 out 6 Russian cruise missiles, 10 kamikaze drones. Russian bombers launched six cruise missiles on Ukraine at 12 p.m. on Oct. 19, four of which were shot down in Kyiv, Vinnytsia and Chernihiv oblasts, according to Ukraine's Air Force.

Russia attacked Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, from "the northern direction, in particular, from the territory of Belarus," Air Force reported.

Russian missile hits power plant in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. A fire broke out at the Burshtyn coal-fired power station after it was hit by a Russian cruise missile on the afternoon of Oct. 19, according to Ivano-Frankivsk Governor Svitlana Onyshchuk. No casualties were reported."

Explosions reported in Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia Oblast.

Russia hits Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injures 8 and causes blackouts

Russian troops attacked a critical infrastructure facility in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, injuring eight civilians, according to Oleksandr Starukh, the oblast governor. "(Russia's) attack lasted almost seven hours. Private houses, the building of the city council, and an educational institution were (also) damaged," Starukh said. At the moment, there's no electricity and water supply in Orikhiv, Starukh said.

In a nutshell it definitely seems like the new commander, Surovikin, is replicating the Syria playbook which is somewhat unconventional warfare. Terror against civilians. Will he decide to deploy chemical weapons at some point too?

Putin declared martial law in the four sectors of Ukraine that Russia claimed to have annexed, but does not, in fact, fully control. This is the first time Russia has declared martial law since WWII.

If 98% of the population of those annexed oblasts love the idea of being Russian, why the need for martial law?

[QUOTE]What's Iran's incentive to support Russia?

An enemy of my enemy is my friend approach? Trying to maintain relevance, however notorious, on the world stage. Interesting that Iranian troops are now occupying Syria. Are these regular conscripts or Islamic Guard?

Fun fact: the U.S., U.K., Iran and Wales are together in a group for the upcoming WC. The most interesting group for non-footballing reasons.

Former Israeli Prime Minister and opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu opposed the supply of Israeli weapons to Ukraine because of fears that the technology could could fall into the hands of Iranians and will be used against Israel.

Israel will still help Ukraine, but not with weapons

"We can help #Ukraine with smart missile attack warning systems, like we have, and not with weapons," Defense Minister Gantz explained.

The U.S. should cut some of Israel's funding and give it to Ukraine then. Israel is being pathetic. Zelensky is even Jewish!

The head of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, commented on the mass deportation of the population from the occupied territories deep into Russia.

Oleksiy Danilov @OleksiyDanilov

Putin's martial law in the annexed regions of 🇺🇦 is preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to depressed areas of 🇷🇺 in order to change the ethnic composition of the occupied territory.

Iran and Russia have been military and economic allies since forever. Mossadegh was basically a Russian puppet as the Shah was a western puppet.

I wonder how the Iranian protesters see the mullahs delivering weapons to Russia to fight Ukrainians. I don't think there is much support for Russia in the Iranian freedom fighters.

R382, I guess that’s one way of doing it: extract the current population, and flood the territory with Russians (and their lower standard of living). Steal everything that’s not nailed down; rinse and repeat.

That’s exactly what the Bolsheviks did. Killed off Ukrainians, deported other ethnic minorities (such as Tatars), and replaced them with ethnic Russians.

Western Ukraine was flooded with Russians, most of whom left after the collapse of the USSR.

The Soviets also did the same thing in the Baltics . However, I don't recall the Soviets actually doing it when they didn't really have control.

Pretty clear, too, what Putin would be doing if he'd succeeded in conquering Ukraine in the way he'd originally planned.

This region, like many others in world, has long been a mess and probably always will be.

Sure it’s been a mess, in that it’s been invaded throughout history. However, the population is well educated, unlike many other volatile regions of the world.

I don't think I've seen this before during the Ukraine war - Putin makes a trip to a military training ground to visit some soldiers. It's all so fake though with v. well-kitted out soldiers and equipment, professional-looking training.

It again makes me wonder what Putin really sees and knows. The problem of being a dictator - nobody wants to tell you the truth or give you bad news or else you might get pushed out of a window.

Putin believes his own propaganda, and few things are more dangerous than a dictator who does that.

[quote] Putin believes his own propaganda, and few things are more dangerous than a dictator who does that.

Yes. But there are few things as quick and stunning as the fall of a tyrannical dictator: pride cometh before the fall.

Not sure what you're talking about, R391.

[quote]I don't think I've seen this before during the Ukraine war - Putin makes a trip to a military training ground to visit some soldiers. It's all so fake though with v. well-kitted out soldiers and equipment, professional-looking training.

Putin came out of his bunker to shoot at imaginary Nazis.

[quote] Putin makes a trip to a military training ground to visit some soldiers. It's all so fake though with v. well-kitted out soldiers and equipment, professional-looking training.

Was he shirtless on horseback?

R379, the Iranian troops taking over the bases Russia has left are said to be the Revolutionary Guard and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah.

Zelensky said today that they have information that the Russians have mined the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. If that dam is blown it would mean a very serious disaster with over 80 settlements including Kherson rapidly flooded. I've linked to a gif that shows how extensive the flooding would be.

The Russians have also so far hit about 40% of Ukraine's power plants with over 300 attacks, meaning shortages and a tough winter coming for the Ukrainians.

Zelensky says Russia is planning on blowing up the Kakhovka dam, which is why they're evacuating Kherson. Seems plausible.

Sorry, R396, didn't see your post.

Does Putin seriously think anyone—even in Russia—will blame Ukraine for blowing up the dam?

Withdrawing from Kherson is still a huge military failure for Russia though - it means that they almost certainly have no chance to advance on to Mykolaiv and Odesa because if they're on the other bank of the river Dnipro, making a crossing would be too dangerous.

@JenniferJJacobs

Scoop: Biden admin officials are discussing whether US should subject some of @elonmusk’s ventures to national security reviews, including his deal for Twitter Inc., and the Starlink satellite network

Another Russian fighter jet - a Su-30 - crashes in a residential area - in Irkutsk, Russia. The two pilots are confirmed dead. Guess the residential homeowner will be getting 10,000 rubles (about $162) compensation like the other homeowners did. That's if they're still alive..

LMAO

Russian pilots have forgotten which team they play for.

Fortunately, sanctions and forced conscription will ensure the Russian military will destroy itself from the inside. They don’t have the money or trained personnel to maintain their current aircraft…and buying new toys isn’t an option (which is why they have to rely on drones and ammo from Iran and North Korea).

The pilots in R402’s link were on a training flight. That was also true of the plane that crashed earlier this week. Yes, the problem could be maintenance, but it could also be inadequate training time.

Anton Krasovsky, broadcast director at Russia Today, lost self-control and declared on live TV that Ukrainian children who oppose Russian aggression should be thrown into a rough river and drowned or burned in wooden houses alive. I'm fascinated that this was a bridge too far for chief propagandist Simonyan who has fired him.

Meanwhile Shoigu has been calling other countries and claiming that the Ukrainians will be using a dirty bomb on their own people. It's either a prelude to the Russians doing that themselves or trying to distract from the upcoming loss of Kherson.

[quote] It's either a prelude to the Russians doing that themselves or trying to distract from the upcoming loss of Kherson.

Why not both?

Phoney coward. Staged production. That little gutless worm would never put himself in any danger.

Anton Krasovsky is openly gay, FYI.

In 48 hours the Ukrainians have managed to push back 2km in Bakhmut which Wagner Group forces spent months of hard fighting to take.

Twitter is loving Medvedev's new escalation. Sartorial, that is.

Here he is visiting the Uralvagonzavod tank factory which is struggling to replace what Ukraine destroys. Medvedev is threatening those responsible for poor production with jail. The Albert Speer of our times.

The amount of manpower and fighting wasted on Bakhmut (which is of almost no military strategic or economic value) appears to be because Ukraine made a grand decommunization gesture in 2015 after kicking Russia from Bakhmut in July 2014. They renamed it to original name of Bakhmut. It used to be Artyomovsk under USSR and Putin hates decommunization. Wagner is trying to gift Putin with it.

Re R410: you go, gurl!

Water supply being hit as well.

"Residents of Mykolaiv live without fresh water for the past 6 months. In April Russia hit water supply facilities and ever since city has been pumping yellowish, salty water, good only for washing and flushing toilets. Every day people have to queue at water distribution points."

The Russians are like this:

R414, Putin is just like King George III in Hamilton:

[quote]When you're gone, I'll go mad, so don't throw away this thing we had [quote]'Cause when push comes to shove [quote]I will kill your friends and family to remind you of my love

I wonder who carried out this assassination:

Iranian colonel who was responsible for supplying drones to Russia has been assainated" - Tasnim News Agency

"The murder took place this afternoon in the city of Zahedan. An IRGC officer, Colonel Molashakhi, and one of the Basij commanders, Javad Kiha, were killed in a car."

Pic of the dead man at the link. It looks like it was a shooting.

@yarotrof

Col-Gen Ramzan Kadyrov declares a “great jihad” after a Ukrainian strike in Kherson killed or inured close to 100 Chechen troops: “We will not be taking these devils prisoner. We will burn them alive. We will not stop. Odessa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, all of Ukraine is Russian territory.”

Kadyrov is providing an excellent example of "writing checks with your mouth that your Army can't cash."

Yes, he is setting the bar a mite high, isn't he?

That group of Chechens were targeted after one of them uploaded a video to Telegram when they were still there. Idiotic, just no discipline about security.

Kayadrov. Isn’t he that pathetic poser who makes a bunch of shit talking videos on TikTok from behind the safety of Putin’s skirts?

Always a bunch of bloviating about how he’s so tough yet he never seems to be anywhere near the actual fighting. He just rolls up into bombed out places, does a little military cos play, posts it to TikTok and jerks off to it.

Pathetic.

Ukrainian intelligence has what purports to be an intercepted call from a Russian soldier to his wife in which the soldier explains that a second line of soldiers has been set up behind the front line, with orders to kill anyone who tries to desert.

Russians spent 70% more on antidepressants in the first three quarters of 2022 than in the same period in 2021. The biggest buyers were residents of Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Karelia.

Insane that it's just one man doing this. One man who was allowed to get too much power.

Couldn't we just get stylish murderess Taylor Schabusiness to take his ass out?

[quote]Ukrainian intelligence has what purports to be an intercepted call from a Russian soldier to his wife in which the soldier explains that a second line of soldiers has been set up behind the front line, with orders to kill anyone who tries to desert.

Aha! The NKVD strategy - precisely how the Red Army handled stragglers in the big push to Berlin in April 1945.

Good to know the Russians still value their soldiers.

Wow, Commander Colonel General Lapin has been fired now.

"Lapin's removal means that all 5 of Russia's senior commanders (commanders of Russia's four primary military districts and the VDV) who led the invasion of Ukraine in February have been relieved."

The Ukrainians made a drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol today which made quite a splash...

It's obviously angered Putin.

Russia also says they are withdrawing from the grain export deal which was perhaps Moscow's last remaining "influence lever" in the war over the West (the gas blackmail thing isn't working). So they're holding starving Africans hostage.

China isn’t going to like that.

They were threatening to not renew the grain deal in a month or so anyway. I say Ukraine should keep trying to sink the Russian tubs every chance they get.

Ugh, I've just seen an interview with an American volunteer who says that Russia uses white phosphorous munitions. He says it rains down slowly, there's nothing you can do and that they incinerate everything - he talked about a group of 20-30 men burning alive and how several of them turned their pistols on themselves.

Russia has not backed out of the grain deal, and now is highly likely to withdraw completely from Kherson. That could be a prelude to completely demolishing the city, but I’m not sure that they are in a position to waste all of those bombs.

R429, thankfully Ukraine has them and uses them, too.

R431 That's interesting, since they're considered a war crime. Do you have a link?

R431 is making things up, R432.

R433 Yeah, thought so. Ukraine doesn't have much reason to do that either because they're so dependent on Western support and aid. A lot of countries would balk at committing 'war crimes'.

I'd totally lost track of this plot; weren't the Russians going to bomb Kherson back to the stone age, blow up a dam that would flood the entire region, and release the kraken a couple of weeks ago? What happened to all that?

Pro-Putin Tulsi. No surprise.

"@DefenceHQ

Due to low morale and reluctance to fight, Russian forces have probably started deploying “barrier troops” or “blocking units”.

These units threaten to shoot their own retreating soldiers in order to compel offensives and have been used in previous conflicts by Russian forces.

Recently, Russian generals likely wanted their commanders to use weapons against deserters, including possibly authorising shooting to kill such defaulters after a warning had been given. Generals also likely wanted to maintain defensive positions to the death.

The tactic of shooting deserters likely attests to the low quality, low morale and indiscipline of Russian forces."

Beloved DL villainess Tulsi touts Putin's dictatorship under the guise of an anti-war platform. Her defeatist, quietist, capitulationist rhetoric never challenges Russia's own aggressive expansionism: it's always the US and NATO's defense of Ukrainian democracy and autonomy that's imperialist. We're always to appease Poots, lest we provoke more war.

R432, it's not a war crime. I'll find a link.

It's usable around the opponent's military, but not on civilians.

Here's white phosphorus being used on Donetsk City, which has been under DNR control since 2014.

Who's killed 18,000 people in the Donbass since 2014?

Just in case:

[quote] Throughout the war, the city of Donetsk has been administered by the pro-Russian separatist forces as the center of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), with outlying territories of the Donetsk region divided between the two sides.[7]

Cites The Guardian.

If you have to have it spoon-fed, you're not going to find it in Western media.

[quote]Who's killed 18,000 people in the Donbass since 2014?

The Russians.

R443, now you're just being a baby.

Anyways, I'm out. I can't stand a disingenuous echo-chamber. See ya.

R444 Bye bye. I recommend Michael Tracey, Douglas Macgregor, Patrick Lancaster, Max Blumenthal, Tulsi Gabbard.

Video of graves of Russian soldiers in Luhansk Oblast.

Why the HELL are the Russians doing this - to themselves?

Because of just one man. And the weakness of the jaded, cynical population who do not resist this one man who is doing this. I know that the Russian trolls come by here - you - you are the problem and are on the wrong side of history.

Ukraine has now taken back 50% of what Russians newly occupied in 2022 and 37% of what Russia has taken since 2014.

It sounds as if there may be a street fight to take Kherson - Ukraine says that the Russians have been looting homes and installing soldiers in civilian clothes in readiness for street fighting. Could be tough. Infrastructure has also been deliberately destroyed in Kherson - internet cables cut and so on.

Winter is coming which will make it hard to progress for either side so there's a small window for much to happen until then.

Russian pro-war milbloggers recently complained about the 'pointless' waste of life when most of an elite naval infantry unit was killed. Considered serious enough that the Kremlin issued a rare denial, claiming that only 1% was killed or some such nonsense - showing that they see it a political problem when it increasingly filters through to the Russian public properly just how many working-age men have been killed. If Ukraine's number is right (76,460) that's a staggering amount. Even just half of that is far more than the number who died in Afghanistan and other recent conflicts.

Dozens of recently mobilized Russian conscripts surrend in Luhansk today.

Why are they hiding their faces?

[quote]Why are they hiding their faces?

Probably to prevent repercussions against their families.

Russian army ordered to withdraw from Kherson.

That's been in process for a couple of weeks, R450. Yet, they still built a ton of fortifications and concrete pillboxes along major routes that look like they might be planning to covertly leave conscripted forces in place to kill as many Ukrainian troops as possible. That may still be the plan.

One of the top Russian-installed officials in Kherson region, Kirill Stremousov, has been killed in a car crash just as Russia is having to leave Kherson. The Russians say that it was an accident when his driver tried to avoid a truck. I'd been seeing quite a few videos by Stremousov as he gave information and instructions so he was one of the 'faces' of the occupation.

Well, it beats “accidentally” falling out of a window, I guess.

"Why the HELL are the Russians doing this - to themselves?

Because of just one man."

Because of just one man and his fellow oligarchs. Try as he may, Putin does not operate in a vacuum.

The Russian system of gpvernment is the same shit system Republicans and Faux News are trying to establish here in the US: a small cadre of fabulously wealthy autocrats controlling 99.5% of the wealth and the rest of us struggling for a piece of that .5%.

Has Ukraine won yet?

R455 Wars usually last years. This one is no exception. So you'll be waiting a long time. It's slow and sure.

Ukraine is retaking the Kherson region right now and the Russian pro-war world is going mad on Telegram because of it. I've even heard that thousands of Russian troops have been trapped on the right bank and that Ukraine could capture 5,000+ troops.

R454 Stop thinking that the Russian oligarchs have any real power. With the exception of maybe Prighozin who has his private Wagner Group at least, they don't. Russia is a kleptocracy and Putin controls everything. All the money, the army, the governors, his private guard and the oligarchs.

Literally, even if the oligarchs got together and decided that they'd had enough and wanted to get rid of Putin THEY WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO. They physically can't even get close to him, not without tons of security measures being made by Putin to ensure that nothing happens to him. And they don't have control over the military while Putin also controls their ownership of wealth.

In fact, I don't even know why I'm calling them oligarchs because it's clear that Russia isn't an oligarchy. It's a kleptocracy.

[quote] Wars usually last years. This one is no exception. So you'll be waiting a long time. It's slow and sure.

Just to be hopeful, here's an interview posted today with senior war studies fellow at King’s College London, Dr. Mike Martin, who believes it could end as early as next summer. Of course there's no way he can know this for sure, but here's hoping.

He directly talks about how it might end at timemark 3:00

I can't discount a sudden collapse or something happening to Putin who is at least rumored to have health problems (cancer and Parkinsons) but I think that taking Crimea would take longer at least. I'd imagine that a successor to Putin would probably consider Crimea to be Russia's at least because it's popular amongst Russians to.

Word is Ukrainian special forces are already in Kherson and the fleeing Russians are getting the hell pounded out of them by artillery. Estimated that between 5 and 25 thousand troops may be lost or captured. Sweet.

Kill all of the orcs.

Reports of at least one Russian unit being told to change into civilian clothes and to get out of Kherson any way they can. Other reports of some trying to swim across the Dnipro.

The Vatniks on Russian media are in full meltdown mode. It’s hilarious.

Apparently the VDV units have been successfully extracted (although the retreat routes are reportedly being pulverized by Ukrainian artillery and SU-25s), and mobiks have been pushed into the area to serve as a speed bump. Those are the 20,000 trapped in the Kherson pocket, by and large, although some better units are certain to be trapped there too.

Russian ministry of Defense states the withdrawal of troops from the right bank of Dnipro has been concluded. "Not a single serviceman or piece of equipment lost" - Reuters

My genuine first thought, since the Russians usually state the opposite of the truth: "Damn, they must have lost people and equipment *and* there must be people still stuck there."

Meanwhile Ilya Dugin, the equally bloodthirsty father of the assassinated wackadoodle Daria Dugina, has proposed (in writing!!!) that Putin be assassinated because he’s not murdering Ukrainians efficiently enough.

The Russians — what a joyful people.

Link, R468? That's wild.

"The Russians — what a joyful people."

25 million of them died during WWII and no one batted an eyelid, not to mention all the starvations and murders caused by Stalin's stupid economic "plans" and Stalin purging the military of alleged saboteurs before WWII.

You think a couple thousand deaths during this brief war is going to bring anybody in Russia to tears?

[quote]You think a couple thousand deaths during this brief war is going to bring anybody in Russia to tears?

Yes, to judge by the fury of the Russian right at the way the war's going, and especially by the stampede of hundreds of thousands of Russians when even a partial mobilization was decreed.

They're flying the blue and yellow over Kherson.

The Russians — perpetual losers.

Dutchie, the only unpleasant experience I’ve ever had in eight visits to the Netherlands was on a tram in Ansterdam with two scary nasty drunk Russian laborers.

Some beautiful scenes out of Kherson as people celebrate liberation.

R470 seems to have been struck over the head by a 2 x 4.

[quote] Link, [R468]? That's wild.

Was posted on telegram, then deleted, but .. the internet.

[quote] The Russians — perpetual losers.

No joke there. They are a people who bleed and ooze misery.

The ISW have updated their map. Nice new chunk of blue in the Kherson area to go with the Kharkiv blue at the top. Still a long way to go though. Possibly now is the hardest time.

R474 I sympathise!

Please take comfort in the fact that we dislike them as much as thieving gypsies. Maybe even more, nowadays.

R479 I am amazed the Russians gave up Kherson that easily, and I wonder what’s behind it all…

R481 The Ukrainians had cut off supply lines and were constantly attacking them, closing in on them on the right bank of the river Dnipro. So the Russians have made the strategic decision to retreat to build stronger defence lines on the left bank rather than end up annihilated if they stayed.

It's looking like maybe they're not even planning to defend the south bank or the rest of the oblast, R482. There's not a lot of cover where they can hide artillery or tanks. There's evidence they're actually putting in defensive lines in Crimea.

That IS wild, R477! That Dugin cites Frazer as an authority is the (entirely typical) cherry on the sundae. But are we sure he wasn't rather thinking of Miss Jessie Weston?

Thank you R482

R15, there's a problem delivering more than twice the HIMARS already supplied - getting enough ammunition. The US is already dipping into reserves and ramping up production of new stocks takes time and money. This is true for the conventional artillery that's been provided as well. You don't hear much about that in the kind of articles from the WSJ and other mainstream sites.

This is Ukraine firing missiles on retreating Russian troops.

If Dugin actually posted that (and I am not convinced he wasn’t hacked) that would mean the plans were/are pretty far along, no?

First Putin, then Dugin (for being a traitor), then quietly liquidate the troll farm trolls. Then Russian leadership can credibly claim they need to focus on healing their nation, not Ukraine. Voila all is forgiven and sanctions lifted.

Prigozihn and Medvedev need some misadventure as well.

Sadly I think that Dugin is just that much of a batshit extremist. They end up turning on each other.

Look out for open windows now though, Dugin.

Looks like Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro in at least two locations, and some strong evidence that Russians have abandoned Oleshky, which is the only large town on that side of the river. Amusingly, the mayor of Oleshky already posted a "Welcome Countrymen!" page on his website.

There's also surprising info that Russians appear to be preparing to abandon Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, the eastern cities they took from Ukraine during pitched battles several months ago. Which indicates their lines are probably collapsing there as well.

And Putin seems to be hiding.

This can't be good.

"A colonel closely involved in Vladimir Putin's mobilisation campaign for the war in Ukraine has been found shot dead.

Colonel Vadim Boyko, 44, was found with 'multiple bullet wounds' inside his office at the prestigious Makarov Pacific Higher Naval School in Vladivostok today.

Witnesses said Colonel Boyko had come to work and walked into his office before 'five shots' were heard. A subordinate ran to investigate, and found the body.

Despite the witness claims of multiple shots, initial reports in Russia said that suicide was suspected.

But BAZA media - which has close law enforcement links - said criminal investigators had found five shell casings and four Makarov pistols beside the dead colonel.

The BAZA report questioned how the colonel could have shot himself in the chest five times. No suicide note was found, said reports.

'Boyko was responsible for working with the mobilised,' said BAZA"

"AMSTERDAM, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Dutch judges on Thursday convicted three men for murder of 298 people in the 2014 shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine, and acquitted a fourth.

The three men convicted were former Russian intelligence agents Igor Girkin and Sergey Dubinskiy, and Leonid Kharchenko, a Ukrainian separatist leader.

MH17 was a passenger flight that was shot down over eastern Ukraine on July 17, 2014, killing all 298 passengers and crew."

I heartily concur, r489.

Didn’t the Ukrainians capture Medvedev earlier in the war and were going to turn him over to the US?

I could’ve sworn I read that somewhere and then suddenly, he was back in Russia stirring up more shit.

Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan Consulting: “Morale is incredibly high. Western equipment provides the Ukrainians with an edge.”

But the Russians are now well dug in to their defensive positions, and it is going to be harder to dislodge them than it was in Kharkiv and on the approach to Kherson, he said. There are no obvious weak spots along the Russian lines that could readily be exploited, as was the case earlier this fall, he said.

“Now it’s going to be very challenging for the Ukrainians to create conditions that would ultimately result in a maneuver that would lead to a large-scale defeat of Russian forces,” Muzyka said. “Russian forces are poorly equipped, poorly trained, but their advantage is mass. It is not looking at the quality of its forces — but to hold the line.”

This is a joke. Russia cannot lose. It will end in the nuke of a Ukrainian city.

Not Kyiv - they'll choose a smaller one like the U.S. blasted Hiroshima, not Tokyo. My bet is that the Russians will hit Odessa. You fools are playing a dangerous game.

Three entire Ukrainian regions are entirely without power after massive Russian strikes on energy infrastructure today. Some 80% of Ukraine's capital is without power and much of it without water tonight, as well. More than half of Moldova also lost electricity following Russia's latest missile attack.

It's below freezing and authorities say it will be a very difficult winter. Russia can't win on the battlefield; all it can do is go after civilians.

According to some reports, the going theory among some Russian commentators is that this will cause Ukrainians to rise up against Zelensky. (Good luck with that.)

Sure, leaving a country without electricity, water, and heat will surely make them turn to you. Perfect Russian logic.

Supposedly the water supply in Moscow has been poisoned since late October. Residents are flooding hospitals with a disease that causes kidney failure in 10 days.

R500 Do you have a link? I searched but can't find anything about that.

The Russian strategy is to Syrianize Ukraine, that is, weaponize the country's population by turning them into refugees that will sap the moral of the receiver states. A couple of problems with this strategy is that Poland, which is absorbing a large number of Ukrainian refugees, mostly feels a common cause with Ukraine (and can absorb a large amount of new labor), and secondly that the US and UK, which are contributing the most funds, will not be as affected by a refugee problem as continental Europe.

Also, the Ukrainians themselves are badass.

*morale* not *moral*

"ISW @TheStudyofWar

NEW: The Kremlin appears to be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, likely in an effort to regain public support for the war in Ukraine."

Reports that Russia is evacuating civilians from northern Crimea in anticipation of the inevitable upcoming assault by Ukraine. Sounds like they've given up on keeping the rest of the Kherson oblast.

Meanwhile domestically in Russia, they have passed a new law banning all ‘gay propaganda’ saying this will “protect our children, the future of the country from the darkness spread by the United States & European states”.

That means *any* information or literature about gay people is illegal in Russia now. We're the kind of thing they're fighting to save Ukraine from.

[quote] That means *any* information or literature about gay people is illegal in Russia now.

In Russia, the Orthodox Church is still free to talk about homosexuals all they want under the new law. Condemnations of homosexuality is not only still legal but encouraged. But no positive messages are allowed.

From CNN:

[quote] The discriminatory law proposes to ban all Russians from promoting or “praising” homosexual relationships or publicly suggesting that they are “normal.”

[quote] Homosexuality was decriminalized in Russia in 1993, but homophobia and discrimination is still rife. It is ranked 46th out of 49 European countries for LGBTQ+ inclusion by watchdog ILGA-Europe.

Did some Florida Republicans move to Russia?

Meh, this whole thing ends when Russia nukes a Ukrainian city. Russia can't lose.

This war is a farce and the U.S. needs to stop sending military aid and insist that Zelensky negotiate.

It does annoy me that Ukraine is being destroyed while Russians get to walk around in Russia perfectly safe in comparison.

At least Russians are feeling some impact in terms of working-age men. Russian mothers are fine with Ukrainians being killed but not so much when it comes to their dear sons and husbands:

"The activists do not criticise Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but complain that sons and husbands have been dispatched to the war with little training, denied essential equipment or conscripted despite having valid exemptions.

Olga Tsukanova, a co-head of the council, said in an address to Putin and “all men in power” that she and other mothers had travelled to Moscow to be ready to meet the president, and they wanted real dialogue with the authorities rather than the fake event with “pocket mothers” that she suspected was being arranged.

The Council of Mothers and Wives asks Putin if he has the "courage" to meet them face-to-face

“Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin], are you a man or what?” she asked in the video, posted on social media this week. “Do you have the courage to meet and look us in the eye, not with your hand-picked women and mothers, but with real [women], who have travelled from various cities at their own expense, here, to meet you? We are here; we are ready to meet you. We are waiting for your answer! Or will you hide again?”

On Tuesday Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, confirmed a newspaper report that the president would hold a meeting with mothers of soldiers. It appeared that could include relatives of those conscripted as part of the president’s mobilisation of 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine in September.

The meeting was “in preparation”, Peskov said, and would not necessarily be public. Tsukanova, 46, the mother of a 20-year-old conscript from the city of Samara, told the Dozhd independent television channel that her group had members all across Russia, about 500 of whom were actively involved in campaigning.

Rather than addressing serious complaints about soldiers’ treatment, the authorities were prosecuting the people who raised them and sending secret policemen to trail the activist mothers around Moscow as a means of intimidating them, she alleged.

Tsukanova said she and other mothers had met MPs and other officials in the capital but received no invitation from the Kremlin. She doubted Putin would meet her but if he did it would demonstrate that the president was “ready for at least some kind of dialogue and we can voice our questions to the whole country”.

She added: “Let him answer.”

The Union of Committees of Soldiers’ Mothers of Russia, a group that has acted to protect soldiers from rights abuses and violent bullying since the 1980s, said it had not been invited to take part in Putin’s meeting either.

Since the beginning of last month relatives of conscripts in at least 15 Russian regions have made official complaints to the authorities asking for the soldiers to be sent home from the front in Ukraine or training bases in Russia because of poor conditions and weaponry.

Putin reinstated the Soviet-era “Mother Heroine” award in August and the Kremlin is keen to be seen as caring for soldiers’ families.

The designation is given to mothers who raise ten or more children, including any offspring lost at war. The mothers are awarded a one-time payment of one million rubles (£13,700) as soon as their tenth child is a year old." (The Times)