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New York Just Cost Democrats Their Big Redistricting Advantage

On Wednesday, the New York Court of Appeals ruled that the congressional map New York Democrats enacted back in February was a partisan gerrymander that violated the state constitution and tossed it to the curb. The decision was a huge blow to Democrats, who until recently looked like they had gained enough seats nationally in redistricting to almost eliminate the Republican bias in the House of Representatives. But with the invalidation of New York’s map, as well as Florida’s recent passage of a congressional map that heavily favors the GOP,1 the takeaways from the 2021-22 redistricting cycle are no longer so straightforward.

That’s because much of Democrats’ national redistricting advantage rested on their gerrymander in New York. The now-invalidated map included 20 seats with a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of D+5 or bluer and only four seats with a partisan lean of R+5 or redder. It also included two swing seats, but even those had slight Democratic leans (D+3 and D+4).

In other words, all else being equal, we’d have expected Democrats to win 22 of New York’s 26 House seats (85 percent) under the map. But that’s way out of proportion with how New York usually votes; for instance, President Biden got just 61 percent of the vote there in 2020.

There are currently 19 Democrats and eight Republicans in New York’s congressional delegation, so this map likely would have resulted in Democrats gaining three House seats in the 2022 election and Republicans losing four, from just New York alone. (The map converted the 1st and 11th districts from light red to light blue, and it also moved the swing district currently held by Republican Rep. John Katko more firmly into Democratic territory. It also chose a Republican-held seat upstate as the district New York would have to lose as a result of its relatively sluggish population growth in the 2020 census.)3

Those heady gains and losses were the foundation for the big national gains Democrats had run up about a month ago. As of March 30, redistricting had added 11 districts to the “Democratic-leaning” (D+5 or bluer) column nationally (compared with the maps that were in place in 2020) and subtracted six districts from the “Republican-leaning” column (R+5 or redder). Today, though, Democrats are up only seven districts, and Republicans are no longer down at all — they’ve actually added one

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See The Dog and The Bone - Aesop's fables

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by Anonymousreply 27May 20, 2022 3:12 PM

Shoot

by Anonymousreply 1May 4, 2022 12:16 AM

B-but Dems never gerrymander!

by Anonymousreply 2May 4, 2022 12:21 AM

We MUST pass the new Voting Rights Act or democracy will be dead on arrival!!!! This is urgent and is definitely not hyperbole done to keep you where you are! Vote for me! I'm the good one

by Anonymousreply 3May 4, 2022 12:30 AM

𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲 ‘𝗛𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘆’ 𝗯𝗶𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗿𝘆𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀

A federal judge in Manhattan Wednesday denied a “Hail Mary” effort by Democrats to reinstate gerrymandered congressional lines for the upcoming midterm elections after a ruling by New York’s highest court last week that declared them an illegal gerrymander under the state constitution.

“I would be hard pressed to imagine a scenario that would cast into greater disrepute the rationality, the fairness, the consistency of the holding of elections in this great country than to precipitate that,” Judge Lewis Kaplan of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York said.

He called the effort by Democrats a “Hail Mary.”

Democrats had requested a temporary restraining order from Kaplan as the state gets ready ready to finalize the ballot for the June 28 primary for Assembly and statewide offices.

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Judge Lewis Kaplan of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York

On May 5, 1994, Kaplan was nominated by President Bill Clinton to a seat on the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York vacated by Judge Gerard Louis Goettel. He was confirmed by the United States Senate on August 9, 1994,

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by Anonymousreply 4May 4, 2022 6:04 PM

Democratic efforts to gerrymander New York’s congressional districts in their favor backfired spectacularly on Monday — forcing the party to eat its own for survival.

Three imperiled Republican seats appear to no longer be in jeopardy and one of two powerful New York Democrats will be out of a job, under new district maps unveiled Monday by a court-appointed expert.

US Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island, Brooklyn) saw her district redrawn by special master Jonathan Cervas of Carnegie Mellon University to no longer include the heavily Democratic area of Park Slope, former Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Brooklyn neighborhood.

Two other districts upstate that were configured by Democrats in what Republicans dubbed Gov. Kathy Hochul’s “Hochulmander” were also redrawn by Cervas to remain more GOP-friendly.

And in a stunning move, Cervas redrew two districts represented by entrenched Democrats in a way that 𝒏𝒐𝒘 𝒑𝒊𝒕𝒔 𝑯𝒐𝒖𝒔𝒆 𝑱𝒖𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒓𝒚 𝑪𝒐𝒎𝒎𝒊𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒆 𝑪𝒉𝒂𝒊𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒏 𝑱𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒚 𝑵𝒂𝒅𝒍𝒆𝒓 (𝑫-𝑴𝒂𝒏𝒉𝒂𝒕𝒕𝒂𝒏, 𝑩𝒓𝒐𝒐𝒌𝒍𝒚𝒏) 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑯𝒐𝒖𝒔𝒆 𝑶𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒊𝒈𝒉𝒕 𝑪𝒐𝒎𝒎𝒊𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒆 𝑪𝒉𝒂𝒊𝒓𝒘𝒐𝒎𝒂𝒏 𝑪𝒂𝒓𝒐𝒍𝒚𝒏 𝑴𝒂𝒍𝒐𝒏𝒆𝒚 (𝑫-𝑸𝒖𝒆𝒆𝒏𝒔) 𝒂𝒈𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒔𝒕 𝒆𝒂𝒄𝒉 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓.

State Republican Party chairman Nick Langworthy exulted at the new lines, which were drawn by Cervas after New York’s highest court ruled that Democratic lawmakers violated terms of a 2014 constitutional amendment to remove politics from the redistricting process that follows the US Census.

“Justice has been served and will be again in November when Kathy Hochul and the Democrats pay the price with voters for trying to rig the election with their illegal Hochulmander,” Langworthy said in a prepared statement.

The gerrymandered districts were expected to boost the Democratic edge to 22-4 but Monday’s proposed changes — combined with widespread expectations of Republican gains in November — could narrow it to 16-10 or less.

Maloney said Nadler issued a statement that he was running in her district without having the courtesy to call her first.

“I thought it was disrespectful. We’ve served together a long time. He’s running in my district,” Maloney, 76, told The Post Monday night.

The congresswoman said she called 74-year-old Nadler up afterwards and he suggested she run in another district. She said she relishes the challenge from ally turned foe Nadler.

“I’ve never lost an election and I don’t intend to start now,” said Maloney, who will run on her record and as a champion of women’s rights.

Also, Bill de Blasio told a state lawmaker he plans to run for New York’s newly drawn 10th Congressional district — the seat entrenched Rep. Jerrold Nadler is vacating

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by Anonymousreply 5May 19, 2022 2:31 AM

Nadler should retire. He's senile.

by Anonymousreply 6May 19, 2022 2:47 AM

they both do. that's why one is no better than another.

by Anonymousreply 7May 19, 2022 2:49 AM

The Ohio Supreme Court has ruled that the Republicans must redraw Congressional districts. All four subsequent proposals have been rejected, but the Republicans keep taking their time. It's time for the Chief Justice to throw come of them in jail for contempt. But, as usual, not a peep from Democrats.

by Anonymousreply 8May 19, 2022 3:29 AM

Ohio is not New York, R8.

by Anonymousreply 9May 19, 2022 4:23 AM

Sean Patrick Maloney is going to have to fight for his seat against a little black BernieBro.

by Anonymousreply 10May 19, 2022 3:58 PM

I never knew how red New York state is outside of Manhattan.

by Anonymousreply 11May 20, 2022 12:58 AM

Anything that manages to piss off blacks, Latino/Hispanics, Jews, Upper West Side liberals, Upper East Side money, and Staten Island conservatives must have some good in it I suppose.

To speak plainly both parties and their associated political machines (along with hacks) are losing their shit over this newly drawn congressional map. If things hold, and it seems as if they will, all sorts of fresh heck is going to break out in run up to primaries.

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by Anonymousreply 12May 20, 2022 3:15 AM

Hakeem Jeffries isn't having any of it, and he's spending tons of taxpayer money in aid of preventing this map from being certified.

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by Anonymousreply 13May 20, 2022 3:19 AM

This is going to get very nasty!

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by Anonymousreply 14May 20, 2022 3:20 AM

AOC and Ritchie Torres aren't having any of it either.

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by Anonymousreply 15May 20, 2022 3:22 AM

[quote]Maloney said Nadler issued a statement that he was running in her district without having the courtesy to call her first. “I thought it was disrespectful. We’ve served together a long time. He’s running in my district,” Maloney, 76, told The Post Monday night. The congresswoman said she called 74-year-old Nadler up afterwards and he suggested she run in another district.

LOL. No honor among thieves.

by Anonymousreply 16May 20, 2022 3:52 AM

R16

First rule of politics; it's every man (or woman) for themselves...

by Anonymousreply 17May 20, 2022 4:32 AM

Truth to tell democrats in Albany and Washington, D.C. brought this on themselves. Emboldened by recent gains over past few election cycles, they simply went too far.

Both Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney wanted safer districts, that is either cut areas currently leaning progressives out, and or add enough solid establishment democrats to keep them in office.

New district proposed by democrats for Nadler was a joke.

From NYT....

"But when party leaders in Albany introduced the proposed lines on Sunday, many onlookers quickly seized on what seemed to be a singular example of mapmakers’ partisan excess: a freshly drawn district now held by Representative Jerrold Nadler, a powerful Manhattan Democrat.

Indeed, with its serpentine shape, Mr. Nadler’s reimagined district — New York’s 10th — is almost comically contorted and overwhelmingly favors Democrats. It stretches 15 miles through 15 different State Assembly districts from Mr. Nadler’s home on Manhattan’s Upper West Side to Brooklyn, jumping over New York Harbor and making three sharp turns to take in small strips of Carroll Gardens and Boerum Hill, before broadening out to encompass all of Prospect Park, Borough Park and Bensonhurst."

And..

"At the same time, Mr. Nadler’s district needed to grow in Brooklyn this cycle because he handed over turf he had long represented on the Upper West Side near Central Park and around Greenwich Village to help Ms. Maloney, his neighbor in the 12th District.

Ms. Maloney is facing her third primary challenge from the left in three election cycles. By shifting her district farther west, the mapmakers removed parts of progressive hotbeds in Brooklyn and Queens that have supported her challengers, theoretically easing Ms. Maloney’s path to re-election in the safely Democratic seat. Ms. Maloney’s primary challenger Rana Abdelhamid said on Monday that she was undeterred."

Jerry Nadler is old school UWS liberal Jew, and last of that faith holding a congressional seat from NYS.

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by Anonymousreply 18May 20, 2022 4:45 AM

𝐌𝐒𝐍𝐁𝐂'𝐬 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐇𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐬

MSNBC’s Chris Hayes accused Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of “egregious political malpractice” after the latter announced he might primary a fellow Democrat in a solid blue district amid New York’s redistricting battle.

Maloney is the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He is tasked with helping elect his Democratic colleagues in the House.

After it was announced his district might shift and become more competitive, he said he would not rule out mounting a primary against freshmen Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY).

Jones represents New York’s 17th congressional district, which is reliably blue. Maloney represents the state’s 18th. If the current map draft is finalized, Maloney could realistically end up in a competitive general election against a Republican.

Maloney said he wants to run where he lives, but his tweet has created infighting among Democrats.

Politico broke down the dynamics of Maloney’s announcement, as well as opposition to it:

Maloney’s decision to abandon a newly redrawn version of his current swing district — and instead run for a seat that includes most of Rep. Mondaire Jones’ turf — is raising private concerns from across the party that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chief has put himself in an inappropriate scenario: leading the party’s midterm strategy while potentially battling a fellow member.

Maloney has the support of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, but he lost Hayes, who on his nightly show Thursday criticized the potential move as “egregious.”

“We have seen action from one member of Congress that I have to say is among the most egregious political malpractice I think I’ve ever seen in my life,” the All In host said.

Hayes ripped Maloney for for announcing he might challenge Jones “within half an hour of this new map being released.”

He further noted the 17th district “already has a sitting Democratic member of Congress,” and reminded his audience that as head of the DCCC, it is Maloney’s job to “keep the Democratic majority by winning difficult races.”

Hayes noted that if Jones agrees to run in another district, and chaos ensues, eventually two Democrats will be pitted against each other in the same district.

“Rather than putting his money where his mouth is and running in the slightly harder district, Sean Patrick Maloney is abandoning it,” he said. “Maybe Sean Patrick Maloney will be embarrassed by the fact he looks like he doesn’t have the courage of his own convictions. He could decide to remain in the 18th district, and hold the seat for the Democrats.”

Hayes said he invited Maloney to discuss the issue on his show, but was told the congressman was traveling.

by Anonymousreply 19May 20, 2022 5:14 AM

Well, we knew that they weren't in politics to help ordinary Americans, so it's not surprising that they only care about themselves and their own ambitions.

by Anonymousreply 20May 20, 2022 6:19 AM

R11

Upstate NY once was far more solidly republican, but that has changed over past several decades. It explains why for instance there hasn't been a GOP governor of this state since George Pataki.

First and foremost upstate has been losing population at a good clip for decades. End of manufacturing, loss of other businesses, the military, and employers including giants such as Kodak brought about demographic changes.

Piled onto above were changes in USA immigration patterns (especially post Kennedy immigration reforms), that meant less Irish, German, Italian and other Europeans who made up historically large parts of upstate populations. Those sorts tended to vote republican or at least were more conservative.

Low to nil employment opportunities, changes in demographics, etc.. combined with often brutal winters have made upstate NY in many areas part of the "Rust Belt".

In recent years you have also seen downstate New Yorkers moving upstate, a trend that has accelerated the past few years. Those moving up there often are not conservatives, but liberal, progressive socialist democrats priced out of prime areas of NYC such as Manhattan, west Brooklyn.

You also have a flow of minorities (coloureds, Latino/Hispanic) moving upstate in search for lower cost housing but better areas to raise families.

Will be interesting in this election cycle come November if GOP manages to regain ground upstate and in who they send to Congress.

by Anonymousreply 21May 20, 2022 10:11 AM

On the bright side NY-21 now has a slightly more competitive edge now that it includes Saratoga and Glens Falls, meaning Elise Stefanik will have to work a little harder than she would have with the original version of the map.

Unfortunately the people running for the Democratic nomination of that district have just been fighting amongst themselves and probably don’t have much of a chance.

by Anonymousreply 22May 20, 2022 10:59 AM

Just keep submitting the same bad maps until time runs out. That's how Republicans are doing it in Ohio.

by Anonymousreply 23May 20, 2022 11:20 AM

This election season in NYS is going to be one hot mess.

In a delicious bit of schadenfreude it is fun watching NYS democrats twist and turn in a mess they themselves created. Democrats have been in charge in Albany for some time now, so they have no one to blame but themselves for current situation.

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by Anonymousreply 24May 20, 2022 12:03 PM

R7. Except the difference is that Democrat installed judges actually have integrity and are willing to uphold the law and strike down partisan gerrymandering like this.

Notice how Republican installed judges appear to be partisan hacks who are quite willing to disenfranchise voters regardless of what the law says?

by Anonymousreply 25May 20, 2022 12:06 PM

NYS's political clout is waning, and has been doing so for years now. Once again as with past 8 or so census counts NYS has lost congressional seats. Power in House at least is slowly moving to south and a few other areas as those states see population increases.

New York lucked out that old lion Charles Schumer is senate leader, has been around long enough to know how things work, and has the juice to get things directed towards his home state.

Once Chuck Schumer goes (retires or dies), NYS will see a huge loss of clout in Washington D.C.

by Anonymousreply 26May 20, 2022 12:08 PM

BernieBro Chris Hayes is pushing the useless BernieBro Maloney is primarying. Fuck Chris Hayes.

by Anonymousreply 27May 20, 2022 3:12 PM
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