CODA is surprise win at PGA, setting up Oscar horse race between two streaming films the public doesn’t care about

In a weird way this is kind of analogous to the Lia Thomas situation in that what are essentially television movies are basically self-identifying as theatrical movies and want to compete in those contests

I agree with Steven Spielberg that these movies should be competing for Emmys, not Oscars

Pre pandemic both of these films would have had mainstream multiplex screenings.

No they wouldn’t, because neither entity is interested in theatrical exhibition

Power of the Dog has been playing at the IFC Center for months. It is a theatrical release. It’s where I watched and don’t understand the argument for it competing for an Emmy and not an Oscar.

Coda is the typical feel good movie that everybody will forget in a couple of years, but hey, they gave Green Book an oscar too

It’s been playing there for months because Netflix buys “four-wall” bookings to establish a kind of legitimacy

They literally buy every seat in the house from the theater. Any subsequent box office sales go directly to Netflix instead of being shared with the exhibitor. This is a huge money loser so Netflix actually went even further and bought the Paris Theater in New York and Egyptian Theater in LA to use exclusively for their own releases.

Neither Netflix or Apple have any interest in exhibition, these movies are made or bought explicitly to buttress their streaming services. The question is (again with the Lia Thomas parallels) is this fair to the other nominated films which took risk to be released theatrically.

Netflix saying “I bought a theater and played the film there for months” = Lia Thomas saying “I have long hair and wear a dress so I’m a woman.”

Isn't the quality of the film what should be the real important thing

Which is a legitimate question, but that is essentially what film festivals are for. The Oscars were created to be a booster for the movie industry.

R6 is correct-ish. Netflix isn’t interested in making money off theatrical, but they do give certain films, such as Power, a decent theatrical release. They released Power in several hundred theaters around the country in November two weeks before it hit the service. 35mm prints have been circulating around major cities since the nominations came out. It has played (aggregately, never at once) at over 2,000 cinemas worldwide.

The Academy voters are suckers for movies about disabilities.

Actually only three BP films in the last two decade featured a protagonist with a disability (A Beautiful Mind: schizophrenia; The King’s Speech: stuttering; The Shape of Water: mute).

Technically the Power of the Dog’s young protagonist could also be considered a disability as he is clearly coded as neurodivergent, but he is technically not the central character.

Some comments on Deadline make me wonder if there is the potential for a potential revolt against both POTD and CODA:

And that will bring upon the death of theatrical moviegoing, movie theaters and filmmaking for large screens. We’re about to live in an industry where only streamers win and control what films all filmmakers are allowed to make and I as a filmmaker can’t accept this. Happy for the CODA team but their BP win will come with a gigantic consequence.

Aside from Dune, is there a big screen pic that has a good case for winning?

Don't Look Up got mixed reviews. People either seemed to love it or thought it was overrated. And for an ensemble movie with big screen heavyweights, the lack of a single acting nomination was interesting.

West Side Story was completely ignored by the public but was a critics darling.

[quote]And that will bring upon the death of theatrical moviegoing, movie theaters and filmmaking for large screens. We’re about to live in an industry where only streamers win and control what films all filmmakers are allowed to make and I as a filmmaker can’t accept this. Happy for the CODA team but their BP win will come with a gigantic consequence.

Kenneth Branagh has been talking a lot about the cinema experience when promoting Belfast. The communal experience, the big screen, the sound.

He even did an advert for Dolby to promote the movie.

And of course Belfast includes a family for whom the cinema is part of their lives.

[quote] Aside from Dune, is there a big screen pic that has a good case for winning?

It would have to be Belfast or Licorice Pizza. Both films have the requisite director and screenplay nominations, although neither has the editing nomination which is very important (I think Birdman is the only time a Best Picture won without Editing, but that pic’s hook was of course that it was filmed to appear as a seamless continuous shot.) West Side Story although I personally loved it, would not get Best Picture again plus I think the Academy would prefer to give Spielberg another Oscar for his highly personal “Fabelmans” coming out this year, if that film proves Oscar worthy.

Despite CODA’s momentum, that film does not have a directing or editing nom, and for a picture to win without either has not happened since the Fifth (!) Academy Awards with Grand Hotel, with the caveat that they didn’t even have an Editing Category back then and only three men were nominated for Directing. So history is still very much against it, while favoring The Power of the Dog by a mile (most nominations/ Best Director, Screenplay, and Editing Noms). However, if the Academy was primed to revolt as they are known to do (most recent with Parasite’s win two years ago) I would be surprised if they revolted in the direction of another streamer’s offering. Remember that both “Roma” and “Mank” (each with 10 nominations) were shirked by the Academy out of revulsion/fear of Netflix’s challenge to exhibition.

I’ve seen all the Best Pictures nominees except for Nightmare Alley:

For me, Belfast was head and shoulders above the rest, the only film this year that took my breath away in parts.

CODA was brilliant acting talent wasted on a corny and mediocre script.

Drive My Car was interesting but very overindulgent.

Licorice Pizza was a lazy mode version of PTA, a real letdown.

Power of the Dog was beautifully done but soulless.

Don’t Look Up was just a mess, satire made by someone who thinks he’s far smarter than he is.

King Richard and West Side Story were both nicely made films, good acting, good scripts, some heart, but B+ grade and not A grade.

Dune was half a film.

...........

The Oscars are pretty much over.

Nobody cares anymore.

Really, at ninety-five or so years old there are just too many winners.

I just watched La famille Belier this evening, and while not great art, it was far better than CODA. The actress who played Paula Belier was really wonderful- a true spark on screen. The original was less corny and manipulative than the schmaltz fest that became the American remake.

The most tiresome aspect of this year’s awards season is the CONSTANT doomsaying about ratings and the theatrical experience (which is ALREADY showing a healthy return but people just KEEP BANGING ON ABOUT IT). It’s all such a turn-off, esp. all the people with terrible ideas who keep making stupid suggestions. (Not necessarily here.) It is probably the LEAST appealing aspect of the season is the CONSTANT criticism and doomsaying.

The landscape has changed. There’s no going back. In life, you can only move forward. There will eventually be a natural balance. It’s all going to be okay. Can’t film lovers just enjoy the movies and celebrate the industry, ffs?

Variety article today actually cites Belfast as the potential spoiler

CODA just won the Writer's Guild Award - so it is getting closer to winning Best Picture

But what R22 says

The final paragraph of the article states

You can also subscribe to the theory that “Belfast” and “The Power of the Dog” are both double-dipping from the international voting bloc, which is helping “CODA” succeed.

Which means a split vote would cause CODA to come up the middle and win

Plus out of the three (CODA, Belfast and Power of the Dog) CODA is the only American film

Oh yeah, the Oscars are so nationalistic, that’s why they gave Best Picture to Joker over Parasite.

Oh wait….

And you can’t exactly split voters on a preferential ballot.

[quote] And you can’t exactly split voters on a preferential ballot.

Happened all the time in Figure Skating when they had 6.0 scoring

The reason why CODA has momentum - is the cast has been relentless in accepting every talk show appearance and ZOOM chat. There has been a huge PR machine to get this film out in the public conciseness

While Belfast & Power of the Dog have not been as aggressive

I don't think I have seen any of the cast on any talk show promoting those films

Jamie Dornan did like a dozen talk shows back in February.

[quote] Jamie Dornan did like a dozen talk shows back in February.

Yes but all four cast members of CODA have hit the talk show circuit separately

Academy wants to pat themselves on the back for celebrating "diversity" which they have been accused as an film industry of ignoring

That is why CODA is going to win Best Picture

It’s entirely possible Belfast could replicate Green Book’s exact three wins from a few years ago: Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Picture.

Troy Kotsur is winning Supporting Actor.

BSA often goes to an older male industry veteran, often someone who is also a respected film and theater actor. This is where over the last couple of decades James Coburn, Michael Caine, Jim Broadbent, Morgan Freeman, Chris Cooper, Alan Arkin, Mark Rylance, Christopher Plummer and JK Simmons picked up Oscars. Ciarán Hinds fits this category perfectly. I remember when people were shocked that Mark Rylance won over sentiment favorite Sylvestre Stallone, but I saw that one coming a mile away. The Oscars just act a certain way. Similarly, Best Supporting Actress often goes to the ingenue, which is why Ariana DeBose is my pick to win.

Wow absolutely no one saw CODA

Variety says CODA with Belfast as the spoiler

CODA is a film that will be forgotten in a couple of years (just like Green Book) and shows how Oscars run into irrelevancy

The only reason why Green Book won over the undeniably superior Roma was because Roma was streaming. That’s why I’m still so skeptical about the Academy suddenly embracing a streaming film.