Will the housing market ever go back to normal?

I just saw a map of US house prices. Homes were still really affordable in Ohio and West Virginia - if that's where you want to live. Prices were skyrocketing all over the place, though, especially on the coasts.

Philly area is out of control, relative to what it was in 2019. The burbs are especially insane.

I think rich people are buying 6-7 personal homes each and then going whole hog on buying up rental properties through LLCs and/or investing is apartment conglomerates.

Everything just seems a bit out of control.

all the homes in NY, LA and FL seemed to be owned by the same people.

This can’t be good:

Koch Industries is gobbling up real estate

“Koch Real Estate Investments include backing Ladder Capital with a $206 million line of credit last spring and an investment in Amherst Holdings, which focused on single-family rental properties”

“Koch is in an unusual position to benefit from real estate holdings, as it’s able to hold it longer than many real estate investment firms given the company’s immense wealth and doesn’t have to borrow to add to its holdings.

That allows it the luxury of waiting out dips in the market and capitalizing on spikes.”

No. We're running out of land. Everyone wants to live in the same places. This is going to be a problem.

Rental and home prices in Houston are equal to Los Angeles now. And only getting higher. And new construction is 100% "luxury" with studios starting at $1,800.

We will gladly profit off the 1%’s NIMBYism on the left

"What cities are people talking about when they say “just move to a cheaper place”? What place is that?"

A place with no jobs.

The housing bubble won't collapse until 2023-2024.

⬆️Every 16 yrs lol we bipartisan like that

What's that based on R12, the fed bank's 15 year glidepath to 2.5%?

So the investment groups that are buying up all the existing stock, are they intentionally blocking new housing construction? They stand to gain from a “shortage”

We should have been building a lot more homes.

I’ll believe the fed will raise the interest rates when I see it. Not a second before.

Here in Fl they are insane. People are going up to peoples homes that arent even for sale offering to buy at outlandish prices. My house has gone up $60,000 in a year,and my realtor cousin told me she could get $50,000 over that all day long.

America has a massive housing shortage. Up to 20 mil units short and no real progress has been made in past decade. Its one of many issues Dems dont talk about that has an effect on a majority of Americans.

R14, It's based on several things, but one is the supply is low and demand is still high from millennials needing homes for their 2-children families. That should taper in the next 2-3 years...

Plus, as R13 said, housing prices typically go up for about 15 years or so, then eventually they correct.

R12 It's not a bubble. It's a shortage. Yes prices may eventually dip. But the demand is so high the dips will be mitigated.

I forget what the latest is on CA's attempt to allow more units to be built on single home lots, whether that means splitting homes or building apartment/guest house units on the property, but it will be a long time before those add up to any real numbers.

I’m not sure we are in a “typical” wold anymore. I think we have left the natural world behind and have moved into a much more controlled world and I’m not sure those historical metrics will carry over.

There isn’t much of a free market anymore with capital being in the hands of so few.

If we need 20 million units, it would seem the better investment would be into new construction.

20 million units means you’ll have to build entire new towns and even cities to accommodate that many people.

It seems like companies need to get to work building new houses.

The hedge funds/private equity investors are just lazy and go after the sitting sucks (us).

In 2021 I made and lost about a dozen offers (possibly more—I lost track). Most of those properties ended up selling for 20-30% over asking, and many for cash. Finally had an accepted offer on a fixer-upper in a desirable area, but had to waive all contingencies except financing to get it. This is the fourth place I've owned and I've never experienced this kind of competition and outright frenzy in the real estate market.

*ducks

Don’t the Kochs have enough money? Good grief. Now they want to put families out in the streets. These people have done so much damage.

The ubiquity of it all.

Charles Koch funded eviction push while investing in real estate companies

“Billionaire Charles Koch’s foundation has bankrolled three conservative legal groups leading the court battle to eliminate prohibitions against tenant evictions during the Covid-19 pandemic in America.”

“At the same time, Koch’s corporate empire has suddenly stepped up its real estate purchases during the pandemic – including making large investments in real estate companies with a potential financial interest in eliminating eviction restrictions.”

What about all the unused corporate spaces? Will those be converted to housing?

Lots of people are not going back to work at offices. Ever.

It seems really unnecessary. A harken back to the slave days when the workers lived on site.

Millions of immigrants come here every year. So housing gets more and more expensive. Shut off the immigration spigot and home prices won’t keep getting more and more outrageous.

Thank you Fox News R31

^^^Umm...what?

Make laws that require homes to be rented or sold and not just held as investments by off shore investors.

R34 also a good idea. That’s what China does. They buy up property here but they’d never put up with Americans doing the same to them.

You can’t blame immigrants for this one. They sleep 15-20 per unit.

[quote]What about all the unused corporate spaces? Will those be converted to housing?

Adaptive re-use has been a trend in SoCA for a while.....converting old commercial buildings into residential lofts, for example. There are several in the works near me. I have a loft in an old 1920s commercial building that is really a cool place with 14' ceilings, lots of exposed concrete, pipes, ducts, etc. It's not for everyone, but it does make good use of things that would otherwise be vacant or underutilized.

Whatever it takes. We need to be doing all of these things. We can’t just sit back and let these vultures pick away at us.

The Kochs annual revenues are like 50 billion dollars. And now they want granny’s house too. Just toss her over the cliff why don’t ya.

West Virginia is out of the question. What about Ohio? Is there any place decent you would recommend?

Let’s hope.

Even if there is a housing collapse will it collapse to the point of affordability? Will it meaningfully collapse at the low or entry level? Interest rates will probably cool some of the price increases but in a collapse even 30% off an insane price doesn't necessarily make housing affordable. It's going to require a policy including about real estate speculation... a good luck with that in the fractured Republican states and with the impending Republican congress.

I doubt it. A friend bought her 5b2bath in rural Jersey in 2016 for 200K. She's listed it now for 350K. This is a nice house in the middle of NOWHERE so...yeah, housing is fucked.

R31 You're a de facto cliché.

While there does seem to be some medium term reasons housing should stay high - record low inventory - the reality of increasing mortgage rates HAS TO negatively impact housing values. Anyone who relies on financing - still most people - can now afford 10-15% less because interest rates go from under 3% to 4.*%+. The biggest threat to the housing mania is dramatic increase in interest rates - which will happen.

R30 Corporate spaces don't have the plumbing infrastructure to be turned into housing. Would need to be torn down and rebuilt.

Some big news to come out of LA is that there are a lot of single homes being purchased, demolished, and turned into 4 unit condos on the same lot. Far more profitable to do that then to do what used to be done, which is to buy tear downs and then build a giant 1 family house on the lot.

I know so many people who've made dumb housing decisions over the last two years for pandemic-related reasons. It seems inevitable that within the next two to five years a potentially large segment of them will become eager to sell. In low and medium cost of living areas they might be lucky to break even after transaction costs, but in higher cost of living areas the madness could continue.

A friend of mine just bought a 950 square foot bungalow in Noe Valley for 2.5 million.

Totally fucking crazy.

The other hope is that a lot of Boomers who have held onto their houses through 70+ start dying or realizing the need to live in assisted living. Especially in CA where they financially can’t leave their house - due to the crazy property tax freeze - it could creat a much needed increase in inventory.

Depressed midwestern town still have somewhat affordable housing.

I can't imagine things ever getting back to normal. If prices ever come down it will instantly create the same market that we have now. The only thing that would put buyers off would probably have to be an ELE!

The housing market hasn't been 'normal' since the oil shocks of the late 70's.

Not true R46! There are tons of buildings in LA that were originally commercial buildings, converted to residential. The developer has to replace the entire plumbing and electrical system as part of the adaptive re-use project. I happen to own one. You get the unique character of a (usually) older building combined with new up-to-code plumbing and electrical and sometimes a huge break on property taxes if it's an old historic building that's eligible for a tax abatement program.

Here's an interesting site on adaptive re-use buildings.

What I find obscene is that you're dropping half a million dollars for what is basically glorified sticks and cardboard.

I'm Latin American and the 99% of construction here is masonry, that will last decades with minimal upkeep.

My place is concrete and steel R55.

[quote] The other hope is that a lot of Boomers who have held onto their houses through 70+ start dying or realizing the need to live in assisted living

Old people are staying in their homes until they die these days. Used to be they’s go into assisted living but now they remodel the homes with walk-in baths, stair lifts, ramps etc. etc. My local tv station is full of ads for these services. Young people looking to buy their first homes are screwed. There are NONE out there.

Stupid ass r31, recent immigrants aren’t paying 1.6M for a 2200 sq ft tract house with no yard.

I wonder what the unforeseen consequences would be of getting rid of lost revenue write offs (local, state, and federal)for vacant residential and maybe even commercial space would be. Would it bring a lot of vacant property onto the market for rent or sale and ease the pressure caused by low inventory.

So, the oligarchs are pushing up housing costs but don't want to raise wages. I think the next trend will be homeowners renting out rooms to cover housing costs.

Out of curiosity's sake, when was "normal"?

R31 is right. In the Pacific Northwest and up into Vancouver, CA -- many of the homes are being bought by Chinese and Hong Kong investors.

How about putting a cap on how many homes an individual can own?

Yes. It's pretty bad all over. What were shacks selling at 50k or less now go for 100k or more. Those homes selling not too long ago in the 150-200k range now go for 300k or more.

I live in Springfield, Illinois because I work for the State of Illinois and my office is in Springfield (the capital), rather than Chicago metro where there are also lots of State jobs.

Housing here is incredibly affordable, though prices and rents have gone up a little in this current market - but nothing crazy.

So Springfield is one example of a place that's affordable. The obvious (big) tradeoff is that you have to live in Springfield. I meet people who have moved from Chicago and other bigger cities. They buy houses here and then use the saved money to travel more and/or save more.

My sister lives in San Jose, CA, and makes decent money, but can't buy a house. She's had been approved for a pretty big mortgage a few years ago. But even then, most of the houses/condos she could "comfortably" afford are in areas where she really doesn't want to live and would make her commute worse than it is. Or there were bidding wars and all-cash offers which she couldn't compete with for houses in areas where she wants to live. This has only gotten worse recently. The prices in an already very expensive market are only getting higher and the competition for houses has grown.

I don't see it getting back to "normal" any time soon - at least in the big-city markets where there are so many high paying jobs and where a lot of people want to live. There's still relative affordability between markets. Like Phoenix compared to LA, or Atlanta compared to NYC - but prices in the cheaper of the two are still going through the roof compared to previous prices in the cheaper places.

At the household level we've seen 30 years of interest rates going down and, consequently, real estate prices going up. Sure there have been some blips along the way but for most people on an ordinary income housing has been about their means of wealth creation.

On a bigger scale, the 1% have pretty much acquired all the income producing assets out there. Family homes are about all that is left and the 1% are grabbing anything they can while interest rates are still low. We are basically at the end point of the long con begun under Reagan, where the tax burden was shifted away from assets and dumped on incomes. The asset owners are coming for the last asset income earners usually possess (the roof over their heads). Welcome to the dystopia party people.

Could be worse. You could live in New Zealand.

[quote]Don’t the Kochs have enough money? Good grief. Now they want to put families out in the streets. These people have done so much damage.

They're not doing this for money. They're doing this for fun. They hate poor people and want to bring back slavery. Really

[quote]What about all the unused corporate spaces? Will those be converted to housing?

This is America. The owners will let the buildings rot or even bull doze them before they'd turn them into housing to help the average citizen.

This started long before Reagan. This has been in the works since the 60s.

My parents once had a 10% mortgage - not due to bad credit.

It’s interesting that more people aren’t selling.

Theoretically, people should be wanting to “cash in.” More sellers would help solve the supply problem.

Especially all those boomers… why aren’t they selling those 1980s monstrosities snd moving to cute little cottages in Florida and South Carolina?

Elizabeth Warren should be the face of progressives.

I notice that she is always toiling away at some financial injustice and always making a point to try to communicate to the American people about all sorts of economic issues.

But she doesn’t get the press coverage of some other politicians. It’s like she is drowned out. I’d like to see more of her and hear more from her in the media.

Take a look at the RE market in Sarasota. I'm about to get priced out of my rental here and the cost of buying is astronomical. There are no "in between" homes close to downtown-- they are either 4000 sf and $3 million or 800 sf at $800K-1 million. I may have to move to another area.

There's condos in the 220-300k range. Maybe not ideal for people who want a SFH but at least the mortgage amount would be locked in.

^ Are you talking about Sarasota? If so, many of those are way out in the middle of nowhere.

Too many people wanting to live in built-out desireable coastal areas, and way too much unregulated foreign money splashing around.

30 year fixed mortgage rates have risen to a 4.19% average in N California, and climbing. This and a shaky stock market should at least increase short-term inventory levels in some market segments.

R73, that's Warren's fault. She lost in 2020 because she had a plan for EVERYTHING. Pretty soon people stopped listening...

Oh, don't worry about it. There will be plenty soon enough.

Just wait until interest rates go UP. A lot of people will start panic selling. Should happen later this year.

They should be selling NOW if they want to sell at the top of the market.

But it never fails… people will wait until the market starts to soften and then they will panic sell.

Just like people right now are panic buying. The worst possible moment to buy… yet there they are, panic buying.

The Kochs are just the tip of the iceberg. The wealthiest among us, the 1/10 of the 1%, constantly look across the land and scheme (or as they call it, generate a new business plan) how to screw the American people out of their assets. Just look at the numbers: the only way for middle class people to generate wealth is by owning the home that they live in. The buy a home, put some money into it, enjoy it for a few years (the average home ownership is about 7 years) before realizing the gain by selling and moving up to a bigger or at least more expensive home, and doing it several times before landing in their retirement home which they then do some estate planning to leave to their children.

But along come the institutional investors who swoop into neighborhoods and buy any and all homes over asking (great for sellers!) but locking out potential buyers who can't afford to bid $50k or $100k over asking. They then simply turn the home into a rental, which allows the owner to seek much more immediate gains based on the increased property values without having to divest the ownership. That home that was listed for $500,000 sold for $565,000 and immediately rented for $4000 per month (probably to the same people who could afford — barely — the $500,000 home but whose income doesn't qualify them for that extra $50k debt). The following year, the rent increases by 3% - 4% to reflect the higher values of the home and it's neighbors... so the Kochs and institutional investors almost immediately recoup their overpriced bid, and everything after than, in perpetuity, is gravy.

But those people who couldn't afford the home so rented instead have no such asset to compensate for the loss of their only wealth-generating asset, so they end up paying rent for 30 years and leave their kids nothing, who in turn, cannot sell the parent's home, split it among their siblings for down payments on their own homes. So they end up renting, too.

The 1% have found a new way to keep poor people poor and make middle class people poor, too.

R81 you win the thread.

Another factor fucking up the market is the existence of AirBnB and VRBO. Any place worth living/visiting is now accessible via those websites, and people now buy those homes as investments because they can make money on them, thus driving up the prices. People who just want a home to live in have to compete against this investment market. I've been trying to buy a home in western Michigan for two years now and can't find anything decent for under $750K, because summer renters drive the prices of homes up, even if they sit vacant much of the winter.

They will stabilize. The problem now is people who got loans on houses that are overvalued. Once the market normalizes that 450K house you bought will only be worth 200K THe only way these companies gobbling up houses to rend can win is if they gobble them all up otherwise they cannot afford to charge rent for a house that is undervalue.

The sad aspect of this already admittedly pessimistic trend is that it is almost risk-free for the institutional investor. If the Kochs buy a home, for instance, that either doesn't rent or they have to sell at or below what they paid, they get a tax write-off because it's business. But if an individual buys a home that decreases in value, they have to fight to get the property taxes reduced — temporary relief, at best — and there is no tax write-off for reduced property values without realizing the loss (meaning you have to sell your home in order to get the write off, and even that is tricky because you can only take a capital loss against capital gains, and unless the individual homeowner has a large capital gain, the loss is, for lack of a better word, lost; you can't take a capital loss against regular income).

You're partially right, R84; what you haven't accounted for is what I've laid out in the paragraph above. Also, what you're seeing is that institutional investors do sweep in and buy up entire neighborhoods, or at least enough that they control the values of the homes. Moreover, if the institutional investor does lose money on a home that has lost its value, they can take that loss against other gains and pay reduced taxes because this is all business and the tax law that covers business gains and losses is entirely different than the tax laws that ordinary homeowners pay — it's the difference between active and passive income.

The scenario you envision is pretty much what happened in 2008 when the market collapsed. And if you recall, institutional investors went on a buying spree then, buying up homes in foreclosure for drastically reduced prices (and often renting to the same people who were foreclosed upon, at rents higher than their mortgage payments).

What we need is one of two solutions. The first is a complete re-write of our tax laws to account for the difference between active vs. passive income, how it is calculated, and what is an allowable deduction. This isn't going to happen, so there's no point in talking about it. The second solution is to raise taxes on passive income to bring them in line with active income, and to levy new taxes on specific types of home ownership, and that's going to be very, very difficult. The 1%'s legions of lobbyists and consultants will have little trouble terrifying ordinary homeowners into opposing any new taxation even if that taxation specifically protects individual home owners. All the people will hear is that owning a home is going to be even more expensive if this legislation passes, and far too few people understand taxes, let alone the incredibly arcane business taxation, to understand the impact of any such proposed tax laws. It's much easier to listen to Tucker Carlson scream about evil demonrats raising your taxes than it is to read about and educate yourself on what the legislation is actually going to do.

r63 putting a cap on individual home ownership isn't a great idea because so few people own multiple homes even for investment purposes.

Foreign investors and big corporate ownership, yes.

[quote]No. We're running out of land. Everyone wants to live in the same places. This is going to be a problem.

LOL I heard that same exact line when I lived in Las Vegas during the first real estate bubble! "We're running out of land! Everybody wants to live here! Buy now or be priced out forever!!!" We all know how that ended.

California could easily eliminate its housing crisis by building more. But, they choose not to.

Our city council is actually very conservative. Even they won’t approve more building.

They like the fact their 1983 shit shack is worth 1.5M, you see.

I live in an unremarkable city in the midwest where real estate prices were flat for decades. We're not running out of land and everybody does not want to live here. Still, home prices went vertical during Covid--straight up by a good 35%. It makes no sense. Now I see people panic-buying (always a great idea). I guess this is the kind of shit that happens when the Fed increases the money supply by 40% in one year. That money had to go somewhere! And of course you and I were not the lucky recipients of any of that new funny money. We're the ones being fucked by it.

r85 What if I incorporate, buy a house under the incorporated name and rent to myself at mortgage cost, then if I sell at a loss I can write it off.

The last 20 homes that sold in my zip code, only 3 or 4 owners have real names like John Smith. They're almost all something like New Ventures LLC.

You'd probably go to jail, R90.

R92 is correct, but let's entertain the question. What gain do you have to write the loss off against, R90? That's the point. The investor class is using home ownership as a business; a large business that will generate untold sums if left unchecked. Not that it hasn't been going on for a long, long time; we've all had landlords, and some of us are landlords. It's that it's a new kind of business ramping up at an incredible pace and we're going to start seeing stories in the media of entire towns being owned by real estate corporations and no one who lives there owns anything besides their quickly depreciating cars and toys.

Home ownership is a big part of the American dream, and this wave of monetizing it for the benefit of a very few at the top is one more way it dies.

NEVER, OP !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

R81 People should be in the streets protesting this.

Greenspan, Burnanke, Yellen & Powell's heads should all be on sticks.

I keep hearing about this massive "housing shortage" but where was the shortage in 2019?? People weren't tripping over themselves to buy real estate until Covid happened.

I guess the theory is more millennials are looking to buy now that they are late 30s/early 40s.

And boomers aren’t dying off / selling off fast enough to provide supply.

Not that millennials want the boomers’ tacky1977 split levels anyway.

[quote] Once the market normalizes that 450K house you bought will only be worth 200K

That scenario wouldn't be normalization, it would be a massive crash, on par with 2008. The current market is not propped up by shady subprime mortgages or various other factors that created the perfect storm of 2008. There may be a correction to come, but it won't be so dramatic.

China is facing a breaking bubble of real estate , they fall, we all fall.

A friend of mine believes companies buy properties for the next step of turning the US into an oligarchy where companies "generously" provide housing for their employers with lots of rules attached, and the rent is being deducted from the salary. And if the employer gets fired (for whatever reason) he has also to move out immediately.

It's a total power play move to have more power over the employers, forcing them to reject unions or maybe even force them to vote and show up at rallies for the candidate of the company's choice.

My apologies. It's a total power play move to have more power over the employees,

These businesses buying up residential real estate can become overextended.

We already saw this in 2008 with small time landlords.

One of them already shit the bed (zillow? Can’t remember which one it was.)

May they all shit the bed and may we all laugh when it happens.

[quote]I guess the theory is more millennials are looking to buy now that they are late 30s/early 40s. And boomers aren’t dying off / selling off fast enough to provide supply.

Yea I keep hearing this theory as well, but millennials just SUDDENLY all needed to buy houses in 2020 after Covid kicked off? I don't think so! This 'massive housing shortage' didn't exist in 2019.

They will drop again when inventory goes back up, but it will take at least another year.

Housing inventory is at historic lows, it's unlikely that it's millennials suddenly buying all the houses.

The increased prices also attract investors which further drives the price up.

How good are these "investors" when they're buying at all-time ridiculous highs? I thought the idea of investing is to buy low, sell high? They're doing it wrong.

Because they're betting the prices will keep going up. It's a bubble.

Some perspective - housing inventory is down FORTY PERCENT due to the pandemic, at least around the middle of last year. It will take awhile to increase inventory back to where it was prior to the pandemic.

[quote]Because they're betting the prices will keep going up. It's a bubble.

FATAL LOGIC ERROR. Oh man, this is gonna be fun to watch!

Anyone buying a house in this ridiculous and unprecedented real estate market is a fool. It’s not a matter of if this absurd housing bubble will pop, it’s when and how.

And when it does burst, it will be a global event, because the problems of scarcity and surging prices are a phenomena affecting real estate worldwide.

What will pop this bubble? Will it be the red hot inflation, rising interest rates, a European war, rising energy costs, China’s real estate market collapse, rising consumer debt, or a combination of all of these things?

I earn three times the average household income and yet am priced out of the market in Dallas, which has historically been very affordable. This is current housing market is NOT sustainable.

People buying homes for thousands over asking and waiving inspections are morons and will be under water in no time. This is 2008 all over again, but worse, because incessant money printing has devalued the USD.

"... but millennials just SUDDENLY all needed to buy houses in 2020?"

Everyone had to stay home. But their 'homes' were a shower, a fridge (empty) and a bed. So they started looking for houses. And when Millennials start doing something, they ALL do it- like a school of fish.

Then they discovered they liked home better than work, and fell on a plan to create a work-from-home revolution. Even if it meant paying $350,000 for a one-story nothing house in an iffy neighborhood.

But their Boomer bosses aren't quite on board with it yet.

Hedge funds are very sophisticated and rarely, if ever, miss. That is why they are so flush with cash. The markets are rigged to kingdom come and back.

The thing with Zillow is a one off. I’m not sure we got the real story there. What they claimed was that they could not find the labor to flip the houses. I do not buy that because every other company doing the same thing has managed to find the labor but Zillow can’t? It’s something Zillow specific. Not sure we will ever know the real tea.

But I think that the reason the hedges are all in is because sophisticated modeling shows that it will be a decade or more before the housing market cools. If ever.

There are just not enough houses.

And the more money and power these funds get, they more they are able to keep municipalities from building more houses.

How did these hedge funds fare in '08? Did they all see the crash coming? Or was it another case of "Nobody could've ever seen this coming!!!"?

I own a number of rental houses and a small apartment complex as diversified investment properties. My current residents are utterly terrified that I'm going to raise their rents by $300.00 to $800.00 to be in line with the industry standard rents in my area. I've assured them that I will never, under any circumstances, do such a thing.

It's absolutely insane how much the rents have gone up in my area. Rents are rising exponentially yet pay stays the same.

Landlords are being greedy and it's going to come back (I sincerely hope) and bite them in their asses.

R111 the inflation is global, not just the US, as much as you want to blame this on "incessant money printing".

A recession should've been allowed to happen during Covid. But no...God forbid anyone ever feels even a tiny bit of discomfort anymore! TO THE MOON!!!

R117 the alternative was massive numbers of businesses closing, people thrown out of work en masse, reduced jobs, people going on welfare or destitute, people evicted en masse from their homes and apartments, etc.

It's not like it would have been "a little" recession.

This is why one must save for a rainy day.

Leading up to the 2008 crisis, an unprecedented number of adjustable-rate mortgages were funded, with many banks even accepted "stated income" in lieu of income and asset documentation. When billions of dollars of these sub-prime mortgages began ballooning to their max rates (sometimes up to 5% more than the original rate), once-affordable monthly payments doubled or even quadrupled, leaving the borrower with no choice but to bail. 2021 and beyond is a completely different situation.

If owning real estate is your goal, you should make it happen as soon as possible because it will become less accessible to the middle class with each passing year. You may fear you're overpaying, but comparing current times to the 2008 crash means you haven't been paying attention.

r120, when interest rates go up housing prices gone down. A buyer can refinance once interest rates drop, but the purchase price is forever.

You don't say, R121.

You're a good person, r115

Crushing the American dream is not a good look. Don’t any of these companies worry about optics? Do they want to be seen as ushering in a neo-feudal underworld?

Hedge funds and private equity firms do not give a shit about optics R124. They only care about maximizing returns on investment and will run over anyone or anything that stands in the way. They get paid to generate out-sized returns for "qualified investors" who contribute $ billions into the investment funds they manage.

Hedge funds are the modern day robber barons, only worse because at least the robber barons actually created industries that provided goods to the public. They got out of control and needed to be reined in with regulation and antimonopoly laws. Hedge funds provide nothing but corruption and need to be regulated out of existence and their corpses burned so they will never rise again.

R120, you know it wasn't the existence of those subprime loans that caused it. It as the trading of those and the hedge funds figuring out how to make tons of money gambling on those mortgages going under. They traded and then traded again and again and again. They had a vested interest in those subprime mortgages going under and, whoa, they did. Shocking. The rich own everything. They play games with the lives of the non-rich for their own profit and entertainment. They built the system, gambled in the fixed system they built, and then got bailed out by us. They stole from us from both ends.

Yes the Hedge Funds are evil, but the consumers here have also some part of the blame. I'm sorry but a lot of the people who like to complain about un-affordable real estate are also entitled. They feel entitled to a big house, in upscale areas and in desirable places in the US. They also feel entitled to living close to the beach. I mean, how about moving to medium or even small towns that are not fashionable?

[quote]how about moving to medium or even small towns that are not fashionable?

If tele commuting continues this would be possible, in the past it wasn't an option for most.

Are you kidding me, R128? The small rural town I live in, which is a shithole with a Walmart, a Safeway, a dollar tree,some fast food, a few bars and churches, and that's about it. The nearest small city is 45 minutes away, the nearest large is 3 hours away. No beach, no other activities. The average home price nearly doubled in the past 2 years, as did the rent. Guess what did not increase a dime? Peoples' pay.

You're likely an entitled Bootstraps kinda guy, you got yours, right? I am not the same as you: I got mine, but I would like my fellow humans to have access to fucking affordable shelter.

I hope your heartlessness is just an online larp, I really do.

*doubled to 300K

A quick search on Zillow shows that in these cities: Columbus, GA, Peoria, IL, Lansing, MI, Fort Wayne, IN, the real estate is not outrageously expensive. The thing is, some people do feel entitled to Manhattan, the California coast, or other desirable places without really having the income or the earning power.

If plan A doesn't work, go to plan B. Search less desirable places.

Forth Worth - in a major metro - has some affordable homes. Maybe not people's dream home but they're there.

R130 heartlessness and sounding totally out of touch with reality. The housing market problem is caused by people wanting huge homes and to live near beaches? Come on.

Importing millions of illegal immigrants, over 2 million since Biden took office, only exacerbates the problem.

🙄 troll bot

The average home price in CA is now $850k. That is completely and utterly insane. Is everybody suddenly rich?

We'd ask R135 for a link but all he would provide is something from the moonietimes or Pravda.

[Quote] The average home price in CA is now $850k. That is completely and utterly insane. Is everybody suddenly rich?

YES! There names are off shore "investors."

Many young families in the suburbs of LA are only able to buy houses because both sets of in-laws join in the purchase. So you have like 6 owners for every house. Then the young couple swan around like they bought that 2M house themselves.

[Quote] Many young families in the suburbs of LA are only able to buy houses because both sets of in-laws join in the purchase. So you have like 6 owners for every house.

With ten people living in the homes. Very tribal.

It’s going to have to bust eventually.

The housing market is way different now than 2008. Way more foreign money and corporate investors have their hands in the pot. What I’m starting to see around here that scares me are entire neighborhoods of single family “rental” homes being built. I feel like the dream of homeownership for the average American is slipping away

Here in Phoenix I get at least 2 calls a day of people offering to buy my house.

We have a lot of houses being built for retirees in our town. Lots of housing available for 55+ only. 1M for a 1400 sq ft 2BR, 2BA. City Council won’t approve general housing development.

They simultaneously bitch about the schools drying up. Our neighborhood school had to lay off teachers due to declining enrollment.

What did they think would happen when they decided to turn over the town to wealthy retirees? The town will dry up. Not very good stewardship but then our City Council are a bunch of morons.

Do you live in FL r145?

No, r146. Ventura county (CA)

Must be T O or Camarillo, r147? Rich old people epicenter.

Yep!

Thousand Oaks and Camarillo used to be blue collar and borderline rough. That is crazy.

Camarillo still is very rough (military, ag, mostly blue collar types.) A friend just spent 1.3M to buy a cheesy 80s house is a totally redneck neighborhood (campers and boats in every driveway, etc) Its insane.

never

Barring nuclear war, no.

Real estate only goes up!

It is the ultimate in corporate greed. Buy up all the housing so that everyone who cannot afford the 2x 3x 4 times inflated cost of a home must rent and pay insane rental costs. They are literally stealing the American dream. Simple fix. Pass a law that only an individual can own a home in a residential zone for Single Family Homes.

Where are the HOAs in all this? Don’t they hate rental properties and prohibit houses being used as rentals?

A 1800 sq fat townhouse in our subdivision just sold for $820k.

In 2019, they were going for about 590k.

And trust me… they are shitty construction in a hillbilly town.

People have collectively lost their damn minds.

R105 and r106 have cute responses.

We are TWENTY MILLION housing units short in the United States. That includes apartments. There will be consequences to this. In Los Angeles, they are spending billions to care for the homeless population which has exploded in the past 5 years. It is entirely possible we are looking at the tip of the iceberg because there are hundreds of thousands more who have run up their credit and depleted their savings to stay in the same apartment unit they've been in for a decade. They're now undesirable for new landlords because of their financial picture/credit, the rents have increased but salaries haven't so they don't earn 3x their rent like they may have 10-15 years ago. And now they've got kids.

A lot of the LA homeless actually have jobs, they just can't afford to live anywhere within a 2 hr commute.

The government is going to have to start aggressively building OR giving huge incentives to developers. This needs to happen immediately.

I'd welcome a link to some backup on the "shortage" that people keep pushing on this thread.

R111 reeks of sour grapes.

I really think we need to start building small housing communities. Places sized for single people or a couple with maybe one small child at the most. Put them on half-sized lots and make some subdivisions. A lot of zoning and housing size regulations are to blame for the problem as well. There's no reason houses have to be so large and sit on huge lots. It's all waste.

"The government is going to have to start aggressively building OR giving huge incentives to developers."

Or people will have to die. Many, many people.

"I'd welcome a link to some backup on the "shortage" that people keep pushing on this thread. "

I think the "shortage" is "shortage of housing that people can afford paying only X percentage of their post-tax income per month within X miles/minutes of their primary job," not even considering if it's in a "good" neighborhood, suburb, enclave.

No, there's probably not an overall shortage if you simply consider people and families in the US to available housing overall - anywhere. But, personal housing needs don't work like that. You need something that you can afford within reasonable distance of where you work, unless you work completely remotely.

r159 = obese fug loud mouth limp micro meat Josh. Who bitches about affordable housing and yet does nothing when construction starts with zero AH in there luxury condo housing plans. He moves on to the next empty lot. It's his fetish. Everything being build in Los Angeles is luxury housing and if they have AH it's 10 units out of 200.

{Quote] being build

Built

^ fuck it! you get it.

A million people died in the US of Covid. At least.

That didn’t even put a dent in the housing market. That should tell you a lot.

That translates to about 20,000 deaths per state on average.

You would think that we would be feeling 20k new units available in each state. Or even a fraction of that.

You think 20,000 people in a state is a lot? You might want to go back to kindergarten and learn a bit more about numbers.

R170 There are 40,000,000 people living in California. Per the NYT there have been 86,000 Covid deaths in the state thus far -- a death rate of just over two tenths of 1 percent, not statistically significant at all.

NO ONE is moving to West Virginia or Kansas so why is there a housing shortage there?

R173, trailer shortage?

Millions of illegals are living here. Yes, maybe several to a home but it seems like deporting them would still free up as,well as reduce the cost of a large amount of available housing. Supply and demand. Reduce the demand.

Nope. “Illegals” live in substandard housing. We have a shortage of moderately priced housing. As someone said above, we need more 1500 sq ft dwellings with little or no yard.

We probably also need more apartment buildings, but that’s another matter.

Just do what I did and buy a van.

r160 The government does need to get involved. 1) Stop foreigners from buying residential property in the U.S. as a place to park cash. 2) Cities need to tear up their 1960s regulations 3) Stop developers from building properties for the super wealthy to park their money in. You want to build a 100 story tower with over 1000 units? Go for it? You want single units to take up entire floors so the building sits empty, a foreigner parks their cash, and the developer makes tons of money? Nope.

Lots of smaller booming cities need to get over their 1-2 story limits. Also allowing for taller buildings to be residential and commercial is great too. Nothing wrong with jobs/restaurants/gyms and offices on ground floor and first few stories and then people living above them

The USA And Britain have encouraged The sheltering of illicid moneys in real estate also known as laundering by agreeing to look the other way. All this as to reinflate the real estate market. In many places this is known as corruption. In USA and GB it' is business.The oligarchy aims to rent you your life not just your house. They are just getting started. When done every time you take a piss you will be billed. They will argue on NPR about how the rich deserve the piss rent because they loaned the money for the urinal and the rabble will agree.

[quote]Will the housing market ever go back to normal?

People have been asking this for at least 25 years, what you see currently has been "normal". for years.

R175 then why don’t republicans support comprehensive immigration reform. That is the solution here. Not demonizing them and then profiting off their undesirable status.

^ My honest theory is bc a lot of agricultural farmer Trump types pay undocumented workers next to nothing. If there was reform, that would mean worker rights/employment conditions would need to improve. Now the employers can just threaten these poor souls with deportation if they “act up”

R182 hit the nail on the head. There have been many stories of farmers basically running prison camps and treating workers like sub humans.

There is not enough AFFORDABLE housing.

No immigration reform is needed except a change back to the pre 1965 immigration laws. R181. Mass deportations are the answer. They can take their fake "citizen" children and descendants with them. In no way do they all live in substandard housing.

..........

[quote]A friend of mine believes companies buy properties for the next step of turning the US into an oligarchy where companies "generously" provide housing for their employers with lots of rules attached, and the rent is being deducted from the salary. And if the employer gets fired (for whatever reason) he has also to move out immediately.

R101, send this along to your friend.

A black swan event could repair the market. Credit system crash.. Political shift such as altering the tax laws. A mass die off. Another event that alters the relationship between the landlords/ bankers, renters/buyers. When the market deflated last time political will enabled the reestablished of the previous relationship. Maybe next time it won't or can't.

This is happening in Vancouver. People are selling in Vancouver for $3m and moving to small towns driving up prices and rents in small towns. I bought cheap cheap place for $85k in 2012 and now it is worth $700k. Most of money has sat in cash earning two percent.

Just to add what I've seen. On my street in 2010s or earlier, there were railroad style flats stacked on top of each other and they called them townhouses. They're about half the width of normal townhouses. Imagine three elevators side by side. That narrow. Three levels. They were listing for something like 600K. Actually, it was after 2006, around there. No yard, nothing. Insanity.

California is out of control. My husband and I bought a house during Covid when things were still uncertain and there were massive closures. We paid 350k and estimated value has now gone up to almost 500k in less than two years! We are very fortunate to have job security so we were able to buy when we did. It is insane.

Mortgage rates have skyrocketed up these past few weeks, just hit 5% and still climbing. I think that might bring this whole frenzied real estate market to a screeching halt, or at least put a damper on it. And yes, I know 5% is still relatively low, it’s just that rates have gone up so fast, 2 percentage points in a very short time.

So now the filthy rich had their money grab and when its over interest and prices remain too high for single family home owners.