**BREAKING** SAG Awards... Kirsten, Nicole out !!! Gaga in!!

Correction---Kidman is in!! So is Jennifer Hudson!!

SAG hag

I kinda wanted Kidman to be snubbed but shes taken enough Harvey loads to be grandfathered in forever.

Complete bullshit that Ben Affleck is in there for Supporting and Ciaran Hinds is not.

Wrong, OP.

Kirsten is in.

Kristen is out.

Kristen Stewart's mythical frontrunner status crashed and burned all within an hour. What a delicious sight after months of Film Twitter bullying everyone for daring to question the Mandate of Heaven bestowed upon her.

List of nominees:

I am so happy to see Spencer included. I still rue my choice to pay $19.99 to stream that dog turd.

*EXCLUDED lol

How can you people not applaud DL fav: Murray Bartlett, "The White Lotus"

Wait.

Who else noticed: Female Actor vs. Actress

That's just ridiculous.

The category with Jennifer Coolidge, both the Mare ladies, and Margaret Qualley for Maid is going to be serious fight.

"Best Eating Out An Asshole: Murray Bartlett"

Jennifer Aniston, savaged here on DL for her performance in season 2 of The Morning Show, is nominated along with co-star Reese Witherspoon.

Wow, interesting list.

The Morning Show has no buzz.

It only gets nominations because its stars STARS and SAG always nominates the same old people.

It’s criminal that Tom Wambsgams wasn’t nominated for Succession. CRIMINAL.

What is a stunt ensemble? I've never seen that before.

Can't believe they did not nominate Aunjanue Ellis. Hope she will still have a shot at the Oscars, though.

[quote]It only gets nominations because its stars STARS and SAG always nominates the same old people.

Yes, like Lee Jung-jae and Jung Ho-yeon.

The love for the Morning Show is ridiculous.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Olivia Colman, "The Lost Daughter"

Lady Gaga, "House of Gucci"

Jennifer Hudson, "Respect"

Nicole Kidman, "Being the Ricardos"

That's a really hard call... very diverse and did anybody really stand out compared to the others?

Really surprised to see Kristen is out. I guess she turned-off a lot voters when she said she doesn't give a f* about awards. Also surprising they almost snub West Side Story but love Gucci.

I can no longer watch movies with big names in them. The over-exposure has taken away from the art of the film. “Oh, let me tune in to watch Jennifer Anniston and Nicole Kidman collect their 30000000th award!” No thanks.

R23 No, because literally nobody saw or cared for that stupid film outside the Film Twitter bubble.

[quote]“Oh, let me tune in to watch Jennifer Anniston and Nicole Kidman collect their 30000000th award!”

Aniston has one Emmy and two SAG awards. Kidman has one Oscar, two Emmys and one SAG award.

Usually I pick up a few indie movies to watch from the SAG awards noms, but this year seems very very mainstream with few risks or unknowns.

I'm surprised at the ensemble nom for Yellowstone ... it's not exactly a favorite of coastal liberals.

How can Don't Look up have the best ensemble but not a single one good enough for an acting nomination

Spencer was just such a weird movie, though, and badly produced. Diana is so well known, or believed to be so well known, that you can only stray so far in the visual storytelling. Plus Emma Corrin set the bar really, really high. I was keen to see the movie when it first came out, based on the rave reviews out of Europe. But I never saw it and the desire faded as I read more about it.

I read that David Selznick once said: don't fuck with a classic.

You can, but at your peril. If you can't stick close to material where it's easy for an audience to say 'but that didn't happen', even if they don't know what they're talking about, you better make a really good movie.

Tom Wambsgams is the best actor right now on Succession. So, of course, everyone else is nominated.

R26 I am still sick of looking at them.

[quote]like Lee Jung-jae and Jung Ho-yeon.

SAG isn't stupid. They know they have to fill out the categories with non-whites.

Justice for Matthew Macfayden and his beautiful sad eyes!

No fucking way Jennifer Hudson deserves a nomination over Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz. Wokeness prevails among the SAG Nominating Committee.

There was a male lead in Mare of Easttown?

So, Power of the Dog - full cast nominated, but not ensemble. Don't look up, the opposite. Got it. Guess they're hoping Leo, Jennifer, and Meryl will show up.

Let the BIPOC bitching and moaning begin....

Yeah, these nominations don't seem particularly "woke" to me. Lots and lots of white faces.

Variety:

"Kristen Stewart, considered to be a front runner for her shape-shifting turn as Princess Diana in “Spencer,” failed to earn a nomination, while “King Richard” standout Aunjanue Ellis and “Belfast’s” Jamie Dornan also were snubbed. At the same time, Ruth Negga, who has been largely overlooked for her subtle work in “Passing” by other awards bodies, scored a nomination for best supporting actress, while Bradley Cooper earned a nod for his fiery turn as producer Jon Peters in “Licorice Pizza” — a performance that was high on impact, but light on screen time. "

"House of Gucci" is the only "Best Actor Who Doesn't Have a Penis" nominated film I haven't seen.

But without Spencer, I think Gaga has a shot at the win. As there is no clear winner.

R11 They've been doing that since the beginning. The award is literally named 'Actor' so it makes sense.

[quote]Ruth Negga, who has been largely overlooked for her subtle work in “Passing” by other awards bodies, scored a nomination for best supporting actress,

She was very good, but it was an awful film.

Does anyone still wear a hat?

Will Gaga give her acceptance speech using a Russian accent?

Can they please not even bother with this category.

Interesting that Jennifer Hudson and Cynthia Erivo were both nominated for playing Aretha Franklin, the former in the major motion picture, the latter in the mini-series.

How does Jared Leto keep getting nominated for vomiting a spicy meat-a-ball onto celluloid?

I’m glad the cast of Licorice Pizza was ignored. Except for Harriet Sansom Harris’ fabulous work in one scene the rest of the cast sucked, especially the two utterly charmless, physically repugnant leads.

Amen R49. Agreed.

And again, old DLers speak without knowing what they say.

And how the fuck is someone bitching that the Lead Actress category is too diverse? 4 white actresses and 1 black actress is too diverse for you? Seriously, some of you need to be locked away in a padded room.

Bradley and Jared aren’t getting in at the Oscars.

I really don't get Nicole Kidman's nomination.

Sometimes, Hollywood acts like it is a repertory company, with just a handful of actors, who get all the roles and get nominated over and over again.

Denzel but no Frances McDormand?

Kidman being nominated makes sense to me. Bardem being nominated doesn’t. He did nothing.

Frances hasn’t been nominated for anything this year. Not even critics awards. Why are you acting shocked?

Not shocked. Delighted!

[quote]Kidman being nominated makes sense to me. Bardem being nominated doesn’t. He did nothing.

He was so much better than her. They were both wrong for the roles, but he brought life to his role. She did not.

"That's enough Oscars for you, Frances."

Affleck’s performance in “The Tender Bar” was also nominated by the GG’s and many critics also.

I’m sad Nicolas Cage didn’t get in for “Pig”. None of the three outlier performances for Lead Actor got recognized, but SAG tends to not recognize them because it is being voted on by actors vs critics or organizations etc.

I’m not shocked Stewart’s peers didn’t nominate her. Her performance was ridiculous and I’m sure many of them laughed at it behind her back.

See, I disagree. I’ve watched Being the Ricardo’s twice now and Kidman is wonderful in every scene, especially those final 20-30 minutes. Bardem really had little to do. He was also in much less of the film.

But I’m certainly happy Simmons wasn’t nominated for Supporting Actor. That was getting ridiculous. He did nothing.

Yay for Murray Bartlett! Love him

I'm glad Jennifer Hudson got in, she was much better than Kristen Stewart

Yeah, Hudson was actually good, and I’m not a fan. Miles better than Stewart!

I’m thrilled Rachel Zegler wasn’t nominated. Sorry but she dropped the ball during that final scene.

Eldergays said that Will Smith's movie lost momentum and won't receive any nominations. Not only did he win Best Actor Golden Globe, but he's nominated for a SAG.

Datalounge Eldergays were wrong again! I'm sure many of them will rant "woke, woke, woke" until their faces turn red because there's a few sprinkles of color nominated.

R61 = Lucie Arnaz

Will Smith has been the frontrunner for months now. Why DL is acting like this came out of nowhere is weird.

Nicole Kidman can't disappear into a role anymore. She looks like a wax dummy

[quote]Affleck’s performance in “The Tender Bar” was also nominated by the GG’s and many critics also.

It's his first performance that I liked. He has learned to tone down the smug, self-conscious Ben Affleckiness in his acting.

R37 you can’t grasp it? “Don’t Look Up” had an ensemble that worked very well together and the film benefited from it but none of the actors stood out in a singular way.

SAG membership was expanded to the point that the guy waiting tables who dreams of stardom gets a vote.

I don;t take them seriously.

I agree, it is impossible to watch Nicole Kidman without thinking "This is Nicole Kidman saying these lines."

R67-That's why she and her white trash, cock-slurpin' hubby are such a perfect pair.

Bert Convey shops at my supermarket.

So glad Leo didn't get a nomination.

Ugh, the SAG's version of Best Picutre include Gucci & DLU . . . really?

[quote] I'm glad Jennifer Hudson got in, she was much better than Kristen Stewart

Me too. "Respect" was a mess of a movie saved only by Hudson's performance. I thought I was going to see "Effie White IS Aretha Franklin" but I was impressed by how Hudson disappeared into the character onscreen. It wasn't mimicry, I saw someone portrayed who could be Aretha. Hudson is certainly not the world's greatest actress but her work in "Respect" was an achievement.

Leo was nominated for DLU ensemble

Also Ariana Grande for DLU ensemble. Lol

[quote]Will Gaga give her acceptance speech using a Russian accent?

I have nothing against Gaga (and admit I haven't seen "Gucci" to judge the complete performance) but the clips of her are always cringe-inducing. And so based on that, I find it shocking that she could actually be the front-runner either for this, the Oscar or anything else but whatever I guess.

I was going to say I'm glad SAG refused to reward KStew's bought and paid for bullshit "great actress" press, but then I saw Gaga was nominated so clearly that's not what happened.

It's been immensely satisfying watching Kristen Stewart's supposedly unassailable frontrunner status disappear over the past several days. That campaign has always been ridiculous. "She's overdue for an Oscar nomination, and deserves one because she understands what it's like to be in the public eye, just like Diana!" Utter nonsense.

Her campaign always gave me a J. Lo in Hustlers feeling (this is not an Oscars thing, especially not for someone with this reputation), but even Lopez was able to score a SAG nod.

Lopez was great in Hustlers. Stewart was terrible. Idc how much people wanna claim she was great in a bad film, she wasn’t. All she did was mope, look down, Twitch, and whisper.

Weren’t Gaga and Leto supposed to be ridiculously bad in Gucci?

They and the cast got nods?

What gives?

Jared also got a nod for that movie he did with Denzel and Rami last year. They seem to love to nominate him.

r55 I thought Bardem was much better than Kidman

R82, that's all she ever does, except in some films she whispers instead of mumbles. And every film her PR team orchestrates nonsense articles about how she is the greatest actress and gets a set group of critics to insist she's really good this time, and every time the film flops and the awards don't come. This time it looked like they were going to pull it off despite Spencer flopping, but hopefully this is a sign that they won't.

Really terrible nominations this year, but the SAGs have been trending toward pointlessness for a while. The ceremony will be a ratings disaster.

Who keeps nominating Will Closet Smith for these awards? Is his balding dyke wife bribing people?

Because it’s 2022 and people don’t need to actually watch awards shows to know who wins anymore thanks to the internet, where seconds after someone wins it’s plastered all over social media.

R88 dear racist, get over it. He was great.

I’ve told you whores for months that J Hud was going to be a contender. She’s going to get an Oscar nom and she’s going to be in the running. What she did in Respect with her singing alone could win it. Best Actress is a MESS. Lol no K Stew. Gaga should not be in there. Hurray for Murray Bartlett and J Cool!

R80 Gaga has the only movie in contention that people actually saw. How is that a surprise?

R92 that movie flopped too, stupid lol

Lmao the KStew fans are losing it over her snub

FF OP for fucking up the nominations in his headline

Unacceptable

R92, House of Gucci flopped. Catch up.

Gag is in.

Sag is out.

Gaga is in and out.

That damned bulimia.

House of Gucci grossed over 100 million worldwide, that’s far from a flop, Vadgestan.

What drama this year pulled those kind of numbers during a pandemic? I’ll wait.

[quote]Gaga has the only movie in contention that people actually saw. How is that a surprise?

I don't think this is true. I haven't seen it.

I'm sure more people saw "Power of the Dog" as it was streaming on Netflix. And "They Eyes of Tammy Faye" is now streaming on Amazon. And "The Lost Daughter" has been streaming for a while, too.

I don't think "House of Gucci" is streaming anywhere without cost.

R99 'The Kissing Booth 3' is also streaming on Netflix. Have you seen that?

R98 its production budget was $75 million. That does NOT include promotion.

It needed to make a minimum of $150 million to break even. It flopped.

I am glad to see Jessica Chastain nominated for "The Eyes of Tammy Faye." The film had its problems but her performance was not one of them. Chastain really committed to the role and completely disappeared in it.

Gaga was terrific in Gucci. I really enjoyed that movie. Love Chastain in Tammy Faye, too. Kidman didn't deserve for Lucy--but that's largely because of a crappy script.

I disliked Spencer deeply--but appreciate the artistry of it.

Didn’t DL announce Nicole Kidman’s career over 15 years ago? Why don’t we all just admit that this is not the place to have an informed or rational conversation about popular culture of any kind.

R29 R37 SAG is a bit strange like that. In 2009 I was perplexed "Doubt", where all 4 actors were nominated for every major award, lost to "Slumdog Millionnaire" where none of its actors got much awards attention. I think some voters may wrongly nominate what the consider "Favourite Film" in this category.

[quote]Chastain really committed to the role and completely disappeared in it.

I agree. There were only a couple of moments, usually when she was shot from certain angles, that I was reminded that it was Chastain playing Tammy Faye. Most of the time, I forgot that it was her.

I think Kidman did a pretty good job as Lucille Ball. Everyone expects Lucille to be fun loving and likable like Lucy, but she was known for being a stone cold bitch behind the scenes. Nicole captured that pretty well.

I had no preconceived notion of what Patrizia Reggiani was like in real life, so Gaga's performance may have captured the essence of her pretty well. But there were times when it felt cartoonish. Not as cartoonish as Leto, but still.

THR critic dissects the nominations:

I watched Respect this past weekend and was actually very impressed with Jennifer Hudson's performance. I ain't mad about the nomination and hope she wins AND gets an Oscar nom.

R101 Dude, it's already made $134 million and it hasn't even opened in Japan and Korea. And no one will blame it if it stopped right here considering that it opened the same week Omicron became a thing.

Stop grasping at straws, it's embarrassing.

[quote] No fucking way Jennifer Hudson deserves a nomination over Kristen Stewart

Honey, the grocery checker at the supermarket deserves a nomination over Kristen Stewart.

Handmaid's Tale is the Seinfeld of the drama category... winning no matter what. Is Succession able to change that?

So pleased for Kirsten Dunst, Murray Bartlett and Jennifer Coolidge, as well as the Ted Lasso back four. Disappointing The Morning Show got a best ensemble nod over White Lotus.

Ewan McGregor and Jared Leto both have performances with more ham than a butcher but they were memorable in their way.

Gaga was captivating all the way through House of Gucci. She was in a different film to everyone else but you couldn't look away.

Handmaid's Tale has actually never won a SAG Award, even for Elisabeth Moss.

^ Ah, sorry... what is it always wining then? Emmy?

R112, you don’t seem particularly well-informed.

I hope that made you feel better about yourself, R116.

The SAG awards just abandoned all credibility by nominating Jared Leto.

All things aside, that's a really weak crop of movies...by far, the best work is on TV series

I am really thrilled Barlett was nominated too. He nailed that role and really embodied what The White Lotus was about for me. I would love him to win. Afraid I didn't buy Hudson as Aretha, maybe it was the dreadful movie, but not once did I think she was Aretha. Kidman I also thought should not be here. She didn't nail the I Love Lucy scenes in front of the camera. I hoped Tessa Thompson would be nominated for best actress for Passing. Subtle and complex it was my favourite performance I have seen her give.

[quote] by far, the best work is on TV series

I agree. That has been the case for the last ten or so years now.

R111, that was such a bitchy thing to say. Please come sit next to me.

R105, her movies mostly flop

Andrew is in. I hope he wins.

Oddly, I liked Ben in The Tender Bar. I have been tired of him since I first saw him in that TV show in which he played a HS football player in the early ‘90s. I liked the movie more than I expected, in spite of some anachronisms.

I’m not as big a fan of Power of the Dog as some, so I have no problem liking Ben over Kodi in their category.

But I really hope Andrew wins Best Actor.

Even though I thought Ben Affleck was surprisingly good in "The Tender Bar" (was a CLEVER play on words!!!!), he seems like such an arrogant prick, I don't want him to win.

I don't give a shit.

Wont be watching

Being the Ricardos is Nicole’s Iron Lady.

Hopefully Chastain will win.

Kristen Stewart blew it by saying awards were garbage.

Stewart blew it because she sucked.

Succession will sweep the TV awards, and Don't Look Up will win the big one for film. This is based upon talking to a couple of SAG member friends. All in all, it will be a big night for Adam McKay productions.

Hooray for Nic Kidman!!

Where are my screeners!

R63, I included Zegler among my Best Actress selections. Yes, she does “drop the ball” in that final scene but I place all the blame for that on Spielberg. In the rest of the film she gives an absolutely lovely performance.

How did this random "Zegler" actress "drop the ball"??? Was she in one of the many 2021 TOTAL BOMB films like Respect, West Side Story, Top Gun II, Dune, etc.?

I want to know how she dropped the ball too. I’m not planning to see the film.

R130 = Nicole Kidman

R110, they didn’t spend the kind of money they spent on House of Gucci during a pandemic for a paltry $134 million.

If you take 50% of the domestic gross, and 25% of the foreign gross, House of Gucci still comes up short. Granted it did better than other adult films, but it was not a big money maker.

I am surprised they nominated GaGa.

I am sick and tired of Cynthia Enrivo taking all the American black legendary roles that I could've played to perfection. Greedy British bitch needs to play her own kind.

Julia is still going forward with her own Harriet Tubman film. Y'know, since NOBODY saw Cynthia's.

I think you're all a bit dumb about Kristen Stewart. She's had her biggest artistic successes with foreign and independent film makers. So obviously, that's going to limit her support. Spencer was pretty much a British production, in terms of talent. It doesn't leave her a large network of support when it comes to U.S. voting bodies like SAG.

Also, while it's inherently divisive, Spencer is most certainly NOT a SAG Award film - SAG members are all pretty middle of the road, broke, sad actors. I can say that because I know a lot of them and today marks the annual "The Passion of The SAG Award Voter" where they'll all be nailing themselves to crosses trying to get our sympathy for all the screeners they suddenly have to watch - in the worst, most annoying humblebrags ever.

Glad Bradley Cooper got in. He was quite funny in L.P.

M, G, and Viola all snubbed for a bunch of no name bitches and Cate Blanchett.

I would be surprised if Affleck pulls an Oscar nomination - he’s not particularly well liked by the Acadrmy (see major Argo snub).

Mostly because The Tender Bar is kind of shit. Clooney and screenwriter Monahan really botch the transition from child to young adult - the actors look NOTHING alike. One minute he’s like 6 y.o. bowling with his uncle and 5 mins. later he’s getting humped by some rich bitch. It’s like two totally different films, one as engaging as the other is unending. I turned it off because I just didn’t care. It’s not really an Oscar worthy film and his performance isn’t SO great that he could ace that category as the only nom from the film.

*unengaging for unending

Affleck’s chances are slim. There is too much competition this year.

Leto is most likely not getting in either.

And in The Tender Bar there are not one but two health scares and neither character croaks. That annoyed me.

I haven't seen any of these movies. Are any of them good?

Belfast was wonderful, CODA and Tick Tick Boom were good, Spencer was awful. I haven’t seen many others. I hated The Power of the Dog but others here loved it.

I liked Power of the Dog. House of Gucci was laughably bad. Spencer deserves Razzies.

At this point, I don't picture West Side Story getting much Oscar love aside, aside from perhaps a Best Picture nomination, and only because they expanded it to ten nominees and need the filler.

A couple of technical award noms. But I think Spielberg is a long shot for a Best Director nom, and I don't think any of the actors will get nominations either.

Ariana DeBose is a lock at this point.

I don't think so R151

Aunjanue ellis will take her place.

R140 is talking out of her putrid vadge! Kristen is a loser is a loser is a loser.

R152 they will both be nominated. Ariana isn’t the 5th spot. She’s the frontrunner.

Being the Ricardos is difficult to watch.

I can't imagine the Academy being so tone deaf as to give awards to a movie that was so resoundingly rejected by the public like the remake of "West Side Story" was.

Plus, Rita will cut a bitch if someone else wins an oscar for a role she originated on screen.

Just saying, 2021 sucked if Nicole Kidman is the front-runner for the awful Ricardos.

It definitely sucked for women. It’s very possible none of the best actress nominees will come from a film nominated for Best Picture.

Belfast is total shite. CODA is nice but it’s like an Afterschool Special. I couldn’t get past the 1st hour of Don’t Look Up which was overly smug and laugh-free. The Power of The Dog is masterful. JHud is great in Respect but deserved a better script (though no one really wants to know the real Aretha Franklin story which is why the film seemed without a narrative centre). I liked Passing but I did have to return to it multiple times, for some reason. Tick Tick Boom is a minor work - I didn’t watch past an hour of it because…my eyes were permanently rolled into the back of my head.

I really liked Swan Song with Udo Kier. Watch that.

Haven't read the thread yet, but is the anti-Gaga loon losing his mind yet?

If so, I have to go back and read the thread!

R157 The viewing audience is so dispersed that nominations are more about what voters are watching than what they loved or respected. Being the Ricardos got the eyeballs of these viewers and its easy to talk about why it doesn't work but it is very entertaining. It's medium to not great Sorkin. I could shit on it all day, but I didn't once consider turning it off or get bored.

r17 Some series have a longer tail of viewers than others. Its possible the Matthew MacFayden nomination didn't happen because viewers hadn't caught up to the finale. The finale aired 3 weeks ago. The performance only stands out once the finale has been viewed and one can contemplate the performance over the season (or view some of the assembled clip scenes that have bounced around the internet). For the same reason Kevin Spacey wouldn't have won any awards for the Usual Suspects without the last 2 mins.

I think Nicole may get a Razzie for Being the Ricardos.

It might be like last year, where none of the actresses stood out, and McDormand wound up taking it. Only this year, Olivia Colman sweeps in and wins number two.

I can't picture the academy making Jennifer Hudson or Lady Gaga a two time oscar winner at this point. Neither Nicole or Jessica's performances have generated a whole lot of buzz . Kristin Stewart will be lucky to get a nomination, no fucking way if that happens are they going to compound the felony by rewarding her.

I think it's Colman's to lose. Maybe if Penelope Cruz gets nominated, though that seems like a long shot.

[quote] Haven't read the thread yet, but is the anti-Gaga loon losing his mind yet?

Yes. Vadgestan has been pissing all over this thread about how House of Gucci is a flop, despite it being probably the only Hollywood drama to gross over $100 million worldwide during a pandemic.

R163, Penelope Cruz didn't even make the long list for Best Actress at BAFTA, which was always the precursor most likely to reward her. Sadly, I think that kills her chances.

I can’t believe The Morning Show got anything for that god awful second season.

No, woke cunt at r90, he sucked. Are you the balding dyke wife's PA?

Season 2 of the Morning Show was notable for how bad it was, it wasn’t just blah mediocrity, it was crazy and confusing and bizarre bad.

A friend of mine saw that Kristen Stewart movie because they truly respect the late Princess Diana just that much and hated it so that they refuse to acknowledge that Kristen Stewart was portraying Princess Diana. He'll use any other given member of the royal family to describe her performance and did so for a week after having sat through the film. He was like; "Yeah, that's just as bad as when Kristen Stewart portrayed Princess Margaret in that film." Or; "Heck, I'm sorry you're too busy to hang out, I feel almost as sad as when I saw Kristen Stewart portray the Queen Mother in that film." It got on my nerves even though it was funny. Is the film that bad?!

This race here...

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

Jennifer Coolidge, "The White Lotus" Cynthia Erivo, "Genius: Aretha" Margaret Qualley, "Maid" Jean Smart, "Mare of Easttown" Kate Winslet, "Mare of Easttown"

...is gonna be tight! Oh dear! I think it will be neck and neck with Jean Smart and Jennifer Coolidge but they might cancel one another out. I dunno. But, if I gambled, I wouldn't be able to lay a wager.

[quote] Is the film that bad?!

Yes, truly. And I say that as someone who loved the director’s prior film (Jackie), loves horror and psychological terror films, and loves books and shows about Diana. The whole film was one big WTF that didn’t get who Diana was as a person or the way the public thinks of her as a cultural symbol.

I do get Jamie Dornan’s character in Belfast, it’s so ridiculous. Has Branagh unearthed the home movie of his glamorous, charming parents singing Everlasting Love yet? WTF is this movie? I guess if you live in the UK you’ve seen enough of this sort of thing and his is a very weak broth, indeed. Why is some of it in colour and some in b/w? That wasn’t consistent and didn’t make any sense. The colour bits looked like the NI Tourism Board’s showreel. And couldn’t even be bothered to get the film grain right - the whole thing looked so pristine. Caitriona Balfe deserves the attention and may yet walk away with it. I can see Branagh and Gyllenhaal duking it out for Original Screenplay.

*don’t get Jamie Dornan… sorry

The key to Belfast is you’re seeing everything through the eyes of the kid, who isn’t a reliable narrator because he’s a little kid. So his parents are like glamorous movie/pop stars and John Wayne in one, and when he goes to shows and movies they pop vividly in color compared to his everyday life. I was thinking, 30 minutes in, this film is so childish - and then it just clicked for me. Loved it.

I can see why you liked it R173 but I think Branagh could’ve been more careful with it. Comparisons to Roma were very, very premature.

Yes, I agree. It is overexcited and messy in a way that Roma is more elegantly done. But I liked that about it because Belfast brought out such strong and vivid (childlike!) emotions in me.

Your average guy waiting tables but dreams of stardom can now vote in SAGS with their now expanded membership.

They're kind of worthless now.

R164 West Side Story is the highest grossing live action musical during a pandemic. Still a flop.

House of Gucci is not making money--it has not even broke even--that's the test of its success, not how it fares compared to other films. The producers BADLY miscalculated with this one, they should have scaled back the budget big time. They invested big time in its promotion and it did not get the draw they needed and hoped for.

There's a long list for SAG awards r165 (or others?)

link?

oops never mind BAFTA

The BAFTA long list of nominees was released today.

It's interesting that the BAFTAs nominated Cate Blanchett for Don't Look up, while the SAGs nominated her for Nightmare Alley.

I would be very surprised if Spielberg is not nominated in best director for the Oscars for West Side Story. His direction is really incredible in that. I have no idea why anyone thinks Jennifer Hudson is good in Aretha. How, where? In what scene exactly? Maybe at the end I guess for the Amazing Grace sequence. I am thinking for best actress- Stewart, Gaga, Colman, Cruz and Chastain. But obviously one could and probably will shift. Not sure who to. Hudson, Zelger, Haim?

Pretty sure Kidman is in and Cruz is out, R182.

But who knows.

I agree with R152. Even the Brits doing the nominating would choose Elllis over DeBose.

Why is that snivelling, wife-blaming Ben Affleck up for anything? Has he spoken out about turd friend Matt Damon's faggot comments?

Gaga oh la la!

what did Damon say r185?

I want Gagita’s best actress win

Shuddup, fag!

Wow. This is fun. I though Stewart was 98% gunning for the win. I'm glad to be wrong.

Looks like it's Kidman vs. Gaga.

Gaga will likely win SAG. Not sure who BAFTA will go for. Colman? Stewart (lol!)?

Tbh, I thought the NYFCC win for Gaga was quite shocking. She just might go all the way. Although, I'd love Kidman to have another Oscar, considering her resume and she was better than expected (IMO) in The Ricardos .

Zellweger's recent win is suggestive that Kidman could go all the way.

Some of you are so out of touch. Someone said Olivia Colman will sweep a win … but she lost the GG. So she can’t “sweep”.

Ariana DeBose is the frontrunner. Not the 5th spot. That’s Cate Blanchett here, who hasn’t been getting any other nominations. This may be her sole one.

The Supporting Actor category will look different for Oscars.

Nicole Kidman will win over GaGa. The GaGa loon is truly delusional.

How many cocks did Kidman suck and how many cunts did she lick to get nominated?

I don't want Gaga to win Oscar, but how is she not winning SAG, R191?

They gave it ensemble AND threw Jared Leto a bone. The movie was trash, but they LOVED it. It would make sense for them to go for Gaga to reward the movie, especially since SAG is composed of many different entertainers now (radio hosts, recording artists etc), since the merger in 2015 not just actors.

I was very mixed on House of Gucci but the actors were the best thing about the film. I have nothing good to say about Aaron Sorkin's latest abortion.

Whilst I would vote for Olivia Colman I hope anybody but Chastain (sight unseen I admit) or Kidman.

LOL...everyone acts like the Oscars and SAGs match up exactly.

They never do. Out of the 20 acting nominations possible, there's usually 5 or 6 minimum that differ between them.

Best Actor: Cumberbitch, Smith and Washington are pretty locked. Garfield seems likely. Bardem seems....unlikely

Best Actress: I don't think there are any locks here, tbh. It's all over the place this year. Colman, Kidman, Stewart, Chastain, Gaga are all still in it with Zegler, Hudson still possible and I'm gonna argue and say ther Cruz is still in there, too. It really depends if they can get enough Academy people to see the movie.

Best Supp Actor: Smit-McPhee seems to be the only lock. I think Hinds is likely despite not getting a SAG nod. Kotsur looks more and more like a very likely. Dornan, Leto, Cooper are still in the game. Frankly, I don't see Affleck getting enough love from the Academy to get a nom.

Best Supp Actress: Balfe, DeBose, Dunst seem like locks to me. And, despite not getting an individual SAG, I think Ellis is very likely unless Negga pushes her out. Blanchett just feels unlikely to me unless they want to throw Nightmare Alley a bone but it was such a huge non starter, maybe not.

Lately, the Academy has been throwing some wildcards into the mix so I'm gonna guess there will be a couple "where did THAT come from?" nominations this year.

r53, I thought Kidman was excellent as Lucy. She sounded like her an eluded the true woman. It's not just a look alike contest.

CODA actor is a lock in S. Actor, R195. It got a SAG ensemble win, which was very surprising. He may even win Oscar.

Cruz, Gaga, Kidman missing Oscar nods would be surprising. Cruz has LAFCA/NSFC/Venice (that's an unbeatable combo). Gaga has NYFCC and a SAG ensemble/individual nods (another unbeatable combo). No one has won a Drama Globe in lead Actress and missed Oscar, unless that win was part of a three-way tie since I don't know how long.

R195 has got it. That looks about right right now.

I much prefer the original French film La famille Bélier than CODA. Not that US filmmakers always fail with re-makes of foreign language films but CODA is nothing more than streaming fodder. But I concede that it will probably be nominated for film, supporting actor, supporting actress (the Academy love to invite back somebody they have nominated in decades) and possibly screenplay adaptation.

No way will it get a director nomination. Jane Campion is a lock and Maggie G. could be a surprise nominee but Sian is DOA.

I think Best Director will be full of surprises this year with Campion being the only lock IMO and probable winner.

I would love Kotsur to win an Oscar. His acting was the best physical acting I have seen in some time—beautiful expressing signing and I felt like I knew the character without hearing his voice or even being able to see his face much.

Glad Clifton Collins Jr didn’t get nominated for Jockey.

R101 You were saying?

R197 Jodie Foster, Shirley MacLaine & Sigourney Weaver (MacLaine failed to be Oscar nominated) back in 1989 (for 1988 films).

Hopefully Kidman will break that streak and get snubbed by the Academy.

There are always snubs. Everyone thought Amy Adams was a lock for Arrival and then the Academy snubbed her. People were certain J Lo was a lock last year and then she was snubbed by BAFTA and Oscar. A few years ago everyone thought Aniston was in when she earned the GG, Critics Choice and SAG nominations and then BAFTA and Oscar snubbed her. It’s nothing new.

Stewart, Kidman and GaGa are all questionable.

SAG has a habit of nominating people no one would have expected. Remember a few years ago when Emily Blunt WON Best Supporting Actress at the SAG Awards? She wasn’t nominated for anything else. Or when the Globes gave Aaron Taylor-Johnson the award and he was snubbed everywhere else?

Jennifer Hudson is definitely a woke anomaly. She ain’t getting an Oscar nomination.

1 black nominee = woke

Yeah, dumbass/R207, wokeness can result in even one POC being rewarded with a nomination when there are others more worthy. I realize this might be a hard concept for you to grasp but please do try.

Best performance behind a rubber mask:

Jared Leto, HOUSE OF GUCCI

Nicole Kidman, BEING THE RICARDOS

Don't know about these other awards but I can't imagine WEST SIDE STORY won't get multiple Oscar noms across ALL categories.

Spielberg is just too revered in Hollywood and (IMHO) this film was a major achievement in his long career.

R208 I feel VERY VERY sorry for you. Especially knowing all I know.

It's not like he hasn't done it before, but who did Affleck have to blow to get the spot Ciaran Hinds was meant for?

[quote]They never do. Out of the 20 acting nominations possible, there's usually 5 or 6 minimum that differ between them.

Wrong. In the past twenty years or so, they've never gotten more than six wrong and those years were extreme outliers, like the year where they ignored almost everyone in American Hustle, or when Jennifer Connelly was put in lead for A Beautiful Mind and they almost completely whiffed the Supporting Actress category. They've been as accurate as 19/20 several times, getting 16 or 17 seems to be the standard, and their blind spots are obvious: foreign language performances and late-breaking contenders like Little Women or Phantom Thread.

These won't be the exact list of Oscar nominees, but history suggests they're pretty close.

Oscar will go for biopic actresses Kidman, Chastain, Gaga and Hudson. They are not very creative. That means Colman or Cruz get the 5th spot. I think Stewart is out.

Oh, she's out all right. And that's why she won't get an Oscar nom.

Hudson is in because of Jada’s Law.

Hudson is in because she gave a tremendous performance.

Haven't seen Macbeth but why do you think McDormand isn't getting any love? Too many Oscars? Or is she simply not that good, which would surprise me - I'm eager to see the film.

Re Jared Leto - seriously, why do actors so fully masked in prosthetics get nominations, admiration for their performances when you LITERALLY can't see their faces? Gimmick acting!

Give the makeup person an Oscar but not an actor in a rubber mask.

Macbeth is a black and white Shakespeare adaptation. Well reviewed but Denzel is the only likely nomination. Frances can’t top shitting in a bucket, plus she is a recent winner.

I think Stewart might be out, too. So much of the chatter about how Stewart didn't get a SAG nomination has been about how people really hate Spencer, so I don't think she can even work her snub into sympathy that gets her noticed again. It's like the spell was broken: people realized that she isn't inevitable and they don't have to choose her just because the NYT calls her the new De Niro.

McDormand has a couple problems: she has a more competitive category than Denzel, her movie hasn't been seen as widely as the others, and her performance straddles the line between lead and supporting.

If Lady Macbeth comes off as a supporting role, something is wrong with the screenplay and direction.

I don't get all the Stewart hate. You'd swear she murdered someone.

I loved her in Spencer and, hopefully, she'll eventually be one of the five nominees for best actress at the Oscars this year.

I was hoping that Stewart would bring Sally Hawkins along with her (a la Cate with Blue Jasmine). Hawkins gave my favorite performance in Spencer.

Hawkins was the ONLY good performance in that movie.

No one need dominate Frances for ANYTHING ever again.

R211, is “knowing all I know” some kind of feeble threat? With a teensy “hint” of blackmail ?

Keep that shit up, douchebag. Admin might be hearing from me about you. And that’s a warning, not a threat.

R203, so after 2 months it finally (maybe) broke even. Great.

LaineyGossip, oone of Stewart's PR lackeys, wrote a whole lot of words today to tell us a snub isn't really a snub.

R227 lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

R229, you are right about that Lainey column. Boy, is it something. Apparently SAG members are mostly bad actors who are just jealous and don't appreciate the subtlety and restraint shown by Stewart as she runs around Sandringham like a madwoman, hallucinating about Anne Boleyn and cutting herself. Some choice quotes:

[quote]The actors who are part of the Academy by and large are the best actors. . . . The Screen Actors Guild has over 10,000 members and, you can imagine, not all of them are Oscar winners or even nominees. Most of them, in fact, are actors who are auditioning for their next jobs, waiting and hoping for the opportunities that Kristen has had . . . . The SAGs have generally favoured sentiment and melodrama – actors love BIG ACTING. Kristen Stewart’s performances have often been restrained and contained.

[quote]It's interesting that the BAFTAs nominated Cate Blanchett for Don't Look up, while the SAGs nominated her for Nightmare Alley.

BAFTA's list is a longlist - I doubt Blanchett will get a nomination considering how BAFTA tilts towards British films. Expect Rebecca Hall to get a director nod ahead of Maggie Gyllenhaal.

Based on that list I would expect BAFTA to narrow their 6 nominees down to BALFE - BUCKLEY - DE BOSE - DUNST - NEGGA - ROBINSON

I thought Cate Blanchett was hysterical in Don‘t Look Up. I’d love a surprise nomination for her for that. It’s sort of like Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza - a comic highlight.

Harriet Sansom Harris deserves an Oscar nomination for her one scene role in Licorice Pizza over Cate Blanchett’s one note “comedy” bit in Don’t Look Up.

It's all really about taste isn't it? Looking at the "discussion" here. And some of you have terrible, terrible taste.

I didn't think Cate was anything special at all in Don't Look Up and she looked and acted like a drag queen in Nightmare Alley.

What's become of her? Didn't she used to be talented? Speaking of which, I recently re-watched The Talented Mr. Ripley because I'd just read the book and was shocked at Cate's horrendous overacting in that one. Compared to her, Gwyneth seems so natural and effortless.

R231, what's especially pathetic about Lainey's column is when she was trying to latch on to the #OscarsSoWhite movement (despite her own ugly history of let's just say unwokeness), the Academy is too elitist, too exclusive, etc.:

[quote]Because while it should be acknowledged that the Academy is moving forward, there are still members of the old guard who have some feelings about the fact that the Academy is growing too quickly. As Vanity Fair reports: But opening its doors wider has led some to criticize the Academy for abandoning its traditionally high standards of entrance.

[quote]Betty White just got into the Academy this year! She’s 91 years old! Sometimes “tradition” is just code for “exclusion”. To take it a step further, oftentimes “tradition” is code for “discrimination”. Everybody knows that there have always been fewer opportunities for people of colour and women and the differently abled and basically people who aren’t white and men and straight in the industry. With those lack of opportunities, what are the chances that they can meet those “high standards” if even Betty White had to wait 50 f-cking years!

But now, because she's shilling for the most basic white actress out there, the Academy's exclusivity is a good thing.

Lady Gaga has this all sown up.

I’ve always thought Jessica Chastain would win this in the end. Her movie has some problems but she gives the best performance out of this group.

Sarah Marshall recorded a new You're Wrong About intro with Jessica Chastain for the repeat of the Tammy Faye episode. I really liked a lot of what Chastain said (although she lost me when she defended Tom Cruise's couch jumping as some sincere emotional response--you just have to hear it to understand).

Macbeth should be boycotted for its historical inaccuracy. A black Scotsman? Come on.

LA Times: What SAG Awards snubs and surprises mean for Oscars:

The waiters of SAG will give it to Lady Gaga.

I think Gaga could have turned in a great performance if House of Gucci had been a better film. To me if felt like a mess of about 2-3 totally different movies spliced together and none of the actors were on the same page. Gaga was good in the good parts of the movie and bad in the bad parts. I suppose a better actress could have made the bad parts work but she probably not experienced enough to pull that off.

I Kristen Stewart ever gets an oscar nomination I really don't know what this world has come to. Her mumbling is not acting. I haven't seen Spenser because the idea of seeing something she leads doesn't appeal to me. If she is a supporting character maybe she can do something or not mess shit up but the lead?

When was the last time that a supposed frontrunner failed to get a SAG nod?

Regina King in the Supporting Actress category.

Was there a screener issue with Beale Street for SAG? I think there was some explanation why she didn't get in. Christoph Waltz and Marcia Gay Harden were the other two Oscar winners who didn't get in at SAG, and for Waltz, he was submitted as Lead instead of Supporting.

Marcia Gay Harden really came out of absolutely nowhere that year to win (when you could still do that kind of thing in a non-Oscar Twitter world). I remember everyone predicting Kate Hudson who, I think, wore one of her mother’s old Oscar dresses to the ceremony that night (or maybe that was at the Golden Globes that year - who knows). Anyway, I was in Amsterdam watching the show late at night in this tiny kitchen of the old woman who owned the townhouse where we rented a room while on vacation, and you could tell from the clips shown that Marcia’s performance was the strongest out of the group. I instantly thought that after the clips and before the envelope was opened.

I would have been happy if Frances McDormand had won that year as well. She gives my favorite performance in Almost Famous.

Almost Famous is when I saw clearly how talented Frances is, because she steals the show totally. That’s a minor part but it’s so memorable, I can even remember the way she spoke and walked as that character.

Marcia winning was a joke.

That Oscar was either Kate’s or Frances’ to take.

Kate won the Golden Globe, Frances won the Critics Choice, both lost the BAFTA (where they nominated Kate as lead for some reason) and neither got in at SAG. BUT they’re both far more memorable than anything MGH has given us.

Didn’t that year include one of Judi Dench’s “participation award”-style nominations for doing next to nothing in Chocolat?

I liked Juliette Binoche and Johnny Depp in Chocolat.

[QUOTE]Kate won the Golden Globe, Frances won the Critics Choice, both lost the BAFTA (where they nominated Kate as lead for some reason) and neither got in at SAG. BUT they’re both far more memorable than anything MGH has given us.

Julie Walters won the BAFTA, Judi Dench won the Screen Actors Guild.

The other random nominees that year were Kate Winslet for Quills (SAG), Lena Olin for Chocolat (BAFTA), Zhang Ziyi for Crouching Tiger (BAFTA), Catherine Zeta Jones for Traffic (Golden Globes)

Yea Judi got in for a throwaway-role in Chocolat. She would have been a very deserving winner for Iris the following year, where Winslet inexplicably also got a nomination for playing young Iris.

Dench won for a throwaway role

I disagree, R256. Dench made what was essentially a cameo in Shakespeare in Love a highly memorable part of the film. I thought she deserved that Oscar.

My favorite female supporting performance that year, however, was the non-nominated Joan Allen in Pleasantville.

It's weird that three of the four main actors of The power of the dog are nominated but they are not nominated as whole cast

There usually has to be a certain number of main players to be nominated in Ensemble r258.

I didn’t think they were strong as a cast, while they were strong individually. They didn’t feel like a cohesive part of the story.

That is pretty ludicrous and it is not like those three are the only three good performances in the movie. I think it shows that PotD is not very “likeable”. Everyone seems to appreciate its excellence but I don’t know how many people can’t wait to own it and watch it again and again. Probably not going to be Best Picture.

I thought the ensemble of The Power of the Dog (which extends beyond the four main characters) was well cast and worked with the milieu of the film. Frances Conroy, Keith Carradine, the actress playing the mayor’s wife, Thomasin McKenzie, and that woman playing the older house servant were all strong.

Are you kidding, r262? Frances Conroy and Keith Carradine are barely in the film at all, and almost unrecognizable. They have little opportunity to make any impression much less be lauded for their acting.

The Power of the Dog is pretty to look at, but it's mostly boring and doesn't really say anything. I guess Jane will get her Oscar for it, but Kodi didn't do enough to win an Oscar.

[quote]I disagree, [R256]. Dench made what was essentially a cameo in Shakespeare in Love a highly memorable part of the film. I thought she deserved that Oscar. My favorite female supporting performance that year, however, was the non-nominated Joan Allen in Pleasantville.

There were so many possible nominees that year - Bridget Fonda for A Simple Truth, Laura Linney for The Truman Show, Toni Collette for The Velvet Goldmine, Lisa Kudrow for The Opposite Of Sex, Patricia Clarksons for High Art, Camryn Manheim for Happiness.

Clown 🤡 Show

^Regina King, R246?

I think Jennifer Lawrence will get in. The Best Actress race is so weak this year, with no clear frontrunner, that nominating a big star like Lawrence makes sense.

Dream on, Jennifer. If you’re not a clown in a biopic, get out of my lane.

Will the Oscars nominate Dunst for Featured?

I would hardly call "West Side Story" a major achievement for Spielberg. The movie bombed at the box office, and the public at large has already forgotten about it a month after its release. Doesn't belong with Close Encounters, ET, Schindler's List, or Saving Private Ryan. No matter how many awards they want to throw at it, you can put it alongside 1941 for complete misfires with the general public.

R259, there isn't a minimum number. Million Dollar Baby was nominated for Best Ensemble with a cast of three earning credit, and it lost to Sideways, with only four actors in the ensemble. Smaller casts don't tend to do as well as large ensembles, but there's no rule that would prevent even a film with only one person from receiving an ensemble nomination.

It would be nice if the distributors of Mass did the right thing and placed Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton in the lead category of the Oscars where they belong. Enough of category fraud.

I don't think it matters all that much where the distributors of Mass campaign either Dowd or Plimpton, at this point.

R231, she’s right.

Mass is as very contrived. Unnecessarily so. In We Need To Talk About Kevin, Tilda Swinton and Lynne Ramsey revealed the horrors of being a surviving parent. Mass was like the community theatre version of this. It exists to serve the actors not the subject matter.

It’s funny about the GGs; everyone mentions Pia Zadora and Sharon Stone but NOBODY ever mentions AT-J. That’s some big dick energy right there.

R266 Biopics have long been considered Oscar bait. But, I don't think we've ever had a year where just about everyone in a category were playing real people. I haven't seen all the biopics, yet. But, to me, Chastain did a Sissy Spacek level job as Tammy Faye. I'm happy she is getting nominations and I hope she wins some.

R277, Aaron Taylor-Johnson might have big dick energy, but the poor guy isn't even the most famous AT-J to win a Golden Globe.

Aaron seems feminine acting.

This year’s ladies are kind of a joke.

R278, there have been a couple Best Actor fields in the past decade that have been 4/5 real people, depending on how you consider American Hustle and The Revenant (they're very fictionalized versions of real people). They just haven't done it in Actress, although probably more for lack of opportunity than anything.

I think there's a big difference in portraying someone real like Lucy or Tammy Faye and then someone real who most folks don't know like Mrs. Gucci.

It’s a really weak year for women.

Correction, it’s a weak year for women in LEADING category.

The supporting women race is strong.

Will it be virtual again this year?

Wow that was pathetic last year. Not live. Like a zoom chat. While winners were talking random other people sitting at their computer would pop up at times.

Wonder if Chastain might pick up the Oscar as sort of a body of work award. Poor Glenn Close, this is the sort of year where a sentimental favorite might win just because there's no compelling lead performance.

Chastain isn’t winning.

She has as good a chance as anyone r287. They aren't awarding Colman with a 2nd lead statue so soon after her 1st. Stewart's chance are weakened, and I just don't see Kidman's role in BtR as award-winning material - I could be wrong there.

If there is no real clear lead and a couple of the others 'split the vote', Chastain could slip in.

I was underwhelmed by Kidman as Lucy. It's nothing compared to, say, Renee Zellwegger's as Judy. Chastain's the best actress of the never-wons up this year. Seriously, you're going to vote for Kristen Stewart and Gaga over her for performances in mixed-review films?

Coleman is very good in The Lost Daughter, but the film is slowww. I don't see her winning. Haven't seen Respect, but Hudson's not a great actress.

Depending on how the campaigns play out, I could see Chastain sneaking in.

May as well give it to Chastain. She does a decent job.

Still hoping Penelope Cruz is nominated. She won best actress from National Society of Film Critics.

Gaga or Nicole or Stewart should all be nominated for Razzies. Only in COVID fever delirium times are they being recognized.

R289, the closest winning campaign I could see to Chastain’s is Susan Sarandon’s. A well-respected actress competing against people who either already have been amply rewarded or people who just don’t seem quite right as Oscar-winning actors becomes almost a compromise pick. It’s not an exact comparison, and Sarandon had a better case (she had more of an overdue narrative than Chastain and a stronger movie), but that’s her most viable path.

SAGS are now close to the People's Choice Awards in credibiity.

They expanded their membership and amalgamated other unions into their collective.

You now get radio announcers having a vote.

They're rubbish now.

How do you think Black Panther won a couple of years ago?

Female actor? What's wrong with saying "Actress?"

[quote]Seriously, you're going to vote for Kristen Stewart and Gaga over her for performances in mixed-review films?

R289, I wouldn’t vote for Stewart or Gaga either, but to be fair, I seem to recall some reviews for Chastain’s film that were pretty brutal, so on that one point, they may be all evenly matched.

Will DL fave St Viola need to be put on suicide watch if the mouth-breathing JHud somehow wins Best Actress this year, making her the first and only black woman with two acting Oscars?

Given Olivia Colman didn't win a SAG for The Favourite she make sneak in and win this.

Though the two 'TV cast' awards for The Crown may work against her.

R294 most reviews were critical of the film but often singled out her performance out for praise.

Gaga was terrible in both ASIB and Gucci. However, she has an ace PR team that knows how to build Oscar buzz for her mediocre performances. It's all so inorganic and manufactured.

Not a strong year for women leads? Chastain, Colman, Cruz and Haim would disagree.

We get it- you hate Gaga.

Gaga just won the Iowa Critics award. They've picked the last four BA Oscar winners.

Guess it's over.

I would LOVE Gaga to make this.

I would LOVE Chastain to somehow take this- but she has no buzz.

I actually think its Gaga or Colman.

I hope Kirsten Dunst can steal supporting actress (at the Oscars as well), but DeBose seems to be the frontrunner.

[quote]Gaga just won the Iowa Critics award. They've picked the last four BA Oscar winners.

Pete Buttigieg also won the Iowa Caucus and look how that turned out. "Noel" also won Top Hog at the Iowa State Fair and she ended up as a honey baked ham.

R303.

I would actually watch that shit ceremony if someone told me that Dunst and Gaga were taking the Oscars.

Those are the only 2 that I am pulling for. And Dornan, if he even gets nominated.

And I OWN that I want Dunst to take it for all of her other roles. If there is ANYONE ever who deserves the "career achievement Oscar by way of Supporting Actress- its Dunst. Could care less that her role in The Power of The Dog, is not her greatest. Would watch the show just to see her win.

The Academy better find a gimmick because none of these film are going to draw a viewing audience for their “awards”.

It's going to be Arianna Dubose or Anjaneune Ellis for Supporting Actress.

Arianna is hosting SNL tonight.

Is Power of the Dog too gay? Remember what happened with Brokeback Mountain.

R299, some of those won’t be nominated.

r293 SAG has always used Female Actor instead of Actress. They were woke before it was a thing I guess.

R304 thanks for doing EXACTLY what I hoped you would!

R306, I totally agree.

Dunst is so incredibly under appreciated.

I heard a wonderful interview with Dunst last week on NPR's Fresh Air with Terry Gross. She sounded so sane and level-headed and perceptive about the film business. She talked about how incredibly lucky she was as a child actor on her first two movies, beginning with Interview with the Vampire, in which she was treated like everyone's favorite kid sister, to her second film Little Women, with an empowering all-women team of creators and actresses as role models. She realized even then that it could be all down hill after those two experiences.

R313- YOU are my bitch. And I am YOUR bitch. and we will fuck tonight!

R314 is joining in!

I will join in the orgy upthread. Love me some Kiki, today and always. She is long past due for some awards recognition and I'm hopeful this is her year.

Loved her in TPoTD.

Ariana DuBose is a great Anita but doesn't deliver anything new in the role that Rita Moreno didn't already show us. And actually, as much as I love the new West Side Story, I think Anita's presence is somewhat cut down and overwhelmed by so many more dancers featured in The Dance at the Gym and America.

Well she did a lot more than the dance in the gym….

The Oscar is going to DeBose or Dunst most likely, unless Dunst somehow gets snubbed. DeBose is a lock.

GaGa won her second award out of many and her stan is acting like shes killing it Lmaoooooo

I have not seen WSS but saw DeBose on Broadway a few years ago. She's very talented.

The Good Fight producers should do everything they can to try to get DeBose as a regular for their next season. The one who’s Cush Jumbo’s “replacement” is terrible.

R318, I'm not a really a Gaga stan. I like her a lot, true. But what I really like is how it pisses off certain DLers that she's remained successful. The lengths they go to prove that she's a failure or washed up just cracks me up.

I know, I know. It's childish of me.

I can't imagine why DuBose, who is hotter than hot right now, would want to go into a show like "The Good Fight" that is tired and way past its sell-by date.

Frankly, I'm surprise that Christine Baranski herself isn't eager to get the hell out of that mess.

[quote]Is Power of the Dog too gay?

No. The gay content is minimal, and definitely nothing on the order of Brokeback Mountain.

The Power of the Dog is homophobic so that should approve to the broader voting block.

[quote]I can't imagine why DuBose, who is hotter than hot right now, would want to go into a show like "The Good Fight" that is tired and way past its sell-by date. Frankly, I'm surprise that Christine Baranski herself isn't eager to get the hell out of that mess.

DuBose is a late addition to Matthew Vaughan's Argyle, a James Bond/Jason Bourne movie with Henry Cavill as the spy alongside Samuel L Jackson, Bryan Cranston, Sam Rockwell, Catherine O'Hara, and Jessica Chastain. Hopefully the film will me more Kingsman 1 than Kingsman 2. (Sorry to anyone who has been reminded of Julianne Moore's impression of Karen Walker)

One Kingsman film was enough. The first was great but given the bad reviews of the sequel and now the pre-sequel I'm done with watching any more from the series.

R213 The problem with making blanket statements calling out people for being "wrong" about things is the fact that if you haven't actually done any homework to justify your position, then you look like an asshole.

In both 2001 and 2015 there were 7 differences out of 20 nominations between the SAG and Oscar nominees.

There were 6 differences in 2019, 2013, 2012, and 2003.

And, 5 differences in 2018, 2017 and 2007.

So, it's actually inaccurate to call 6 differences an outlier when in 9 out of the last 21 years, there have been 5 or more differences between the two awards.

And, since the Academy started adding more diversity to their membership, the differences between the two have grown. Since 2015, there's only been TWO years where there were only 3 differences (in 2016) and 4 differences last year. It's been averaging around....5 a year.

Great interview with Dunst right now on CBS Sunday Morning.

I still think she's even-steven with Du Bose for that Oscar.

[quote]DeBose is a lock.

Supporting Actress is never a lock. It's always the wild card of the ceremony, in nominations and wins.

Anjanue Ellis could very well win for King Richard, especially if the academy is still unsure about giving Will Smith an oscar.

R159: “ no one really wants to know the real Aretha Franklin story”

Is there a real story? A documentary?

I'll only watch the new WSS if Ansel got his ass or pinga out

The people saying DuBose is going to win think Kristin Stewart is going to win Best Actress.

LOL at them,

DuBose is not a star. She has a very basic singing voice, her acting is forgettable and she's not pretty. I hope Kirstin wins.

R329 I wouldn't say BSA is always the wildcard. Over the last 10 years AnnE, Patty Arquette, Viola, Regina and Laura Dern were pretty much locks from the start of the awards season and very safe bets.

Some of you are so sad.

DeBose is a LOCK FOR A NOMINATION. No one said she’s a lock to win.

[quote] Is there a real story? A documentary?

I highly recommend David Ritz’s Respect: The Life of Aretha Franklin, which is as close as anyone’s going to get. I think she had a lot of shame and denial that came across as pride and ego.

R333 you don’t need to be a “star” to win the Oscar.

R11, I did. And I concur with you. The irony is that "Actor" and "Actress" categories would preclude any discussions about "Transgender" performers by virtue of avoiding specific gender terms.

I.e., calling, say, Laverne Cox an "Actress" is less contentious than placing her (I know) in the "Female Actor" column.

I have a feeling that Andrew Garfield will win for Tick…Tick…BOOM this year. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of enthusiasm for Will’s unlikable performance. Benedict Cumberbatch will be Garfield’s biggest competition.

His additional presence in Spider-Man and The Eyes of Tammy Faye gives voters more than one place to check in with his talent.

Will’s performance wasn’t unlikable 😂😂😂

It’s one of the most nominated performances of this year.

Okay, Jada at R340.

Well, I found it unlikable and unappealing. That is my OPINION. Ellis, Bernthal, and Goldwyn all outshone him and turned in better performances.

Yes, r341, it is your OPINION. But you’re stating it as a fact. It isn’t the latter. Get it right next time.

If anything, I would say that Garfield's painfully amateurish performance as Jim Bakker could hurt his chances of winning for Tick Tick Boom! And I loved him in TTB.

Anyone who claims Power Of The Dog is homophobic wasn't paying attention. It's a beautiful, brutal film that should win Best Picture. The performances are startling, and the kid looks like a lock for Best Supporting. I watched it last night and can't get it out of my head. Btw, Campion thanks her wife in the credits.

I don't think Will Smith is a serious actor, rather he's a movie star like Tammy Cruise. He clearly wants an Oscar though as he will occasional "go serious", usually in shitty movies like Concussion, Bright, Seven Pounds or Collateral Beauty .

I like Andrew a lot more than luvvy, champagne-socialist Benedict so I'd be happy for him to win.

Oh, please. Just give Will his fucking Oscar, and like Mel Gibson before him, maybe he'll just shut up and go away.

If only Mel Gibson shut up after winning his Oscar! But if Will Smith follows his example, we'll be getting The Passion of the Xenu in a couple of years, unless After Earth already fit that bill.

[quote]Campion thanks her wife in the credits.

She's a lezzer? Didn't she used to be married to a fella?

For r345, Andrew as Justin T.:

[quote] I have no idea why anyone thinks Jennifer Hudson is good in Aretha. How, where? In what scene exactly?

How much do you know about Aretha Franklin? I think Hudson nailed the manner and cadence of Aretha's verbal communication. I am an Aretha fan so I know more of her nuances than most, and I was really surprised that Hudson got it right. I suppose it helped that Hudson knew her.

Hudson was completely let down by the screenplay which was an incoherent mess. In one scene she’s “sweet, shy, compliant” Aretha and in the next she’s ranting and raving about racial injustice like she’s Angela fucking Davis.

DeBose hosted SNL last night. While the show was lame as usual, she was a true performer. Haven't seen WSS, but she made me a fan.

R348 Yes, she was married to a guy.

R344 What is the name of the 'wife' in the credits of thanks?

R353, it’s Carlotta. Carlotta Campion.

I had no idea Campion was gay?

I just finished watching "The Eyes of Tammy Faye," and could watch another two hours of the Bakker saga.

Jessica Chastain is tremendous, fabulous, perfect! She has to go from youthful naivete to hard-earned adult wisdom, with all the increasing material wealth and personal travails that accrued and brought the Bakkers down. Yet throughout, we see a woman who truly loved God and loved people as her faith teaches.

I can't see how the portrayals of Lucille Ball or Patrizia Reggiani can surpass Chastain as Tammy Faye.

Is Tammy Faye on Amazon or Prime?

Jessica Chastain should win the Oscar for that scene with the man with AIDS alone. She was just so humane.

R357 yes, it’s free on Prime

Thanks R359 - I checked and it's not available in the UK yet

R356 again. Now I just watched "Being the Ricardos."

Nicole Kidman was, indeed, excellent. And Javier Bardem playing the Conga drum in the one nightclub scene? Yowzah!

But the storyline itself is nowhere as compelling as "TEoTF."

So point still to Chastain.

"House of Gucci" with Gaga streams January 31.

Maybe I'll rent "Respect" next.

R357, "TEoTF" is to rent or buy on Amazon Prime. Not free, r359.

Tammy Faye is also available on HBO Max.

I am starting to hope Chastain could get through.

Regina King won an Oscar without a SAG nomination. A few other people as well.

Two other people did. Waltz for Django because he was submitted in Lead at SAG, and Marcia Gay Harden over twenty years ago. That’s it. Both Waltz and King won Globes, and Waltz also won BAFTA, so they had major precursors going into the Oscar ceremony.

It’s hasn’t happened in a Lead category.

Digital screeners available now and DVDs going out shortly. That should get me through the next few weeks.

R366 First time for everything.

I doubt WSS will send out DVDs if only DeBose is nominated.

R369-But the email from SAG says they are, Blanche. They are.

SAG LIES! Tee hee.

DeBose and Dunst are BOTH locks for Oscar nominations. I think Aujanue Ellis is too, in spite of the SAG snub.

DeBose and Dunst sounds like a really sinister law firm. Like Cellino and Barnes

R361 back. Finished "King Richard" (Amazon rental).

Will Smith is 100% believable as Richard Williams, but with a bit too much---for me---positive veneer as a husband, father, and coach given by the director. We learn about Richard's philandering and illegitimate children, but a wifely hug ends that very brief scene, so all is forgiven. They're a Family Team.

We see only a little of the irritating Father-Coach after the girls' successes, with his displaying signs to fans in the stands---though earlier we saw him harping to his family about staying humble, no bragging allowed.

But in the larger picture, Will as Richard comes across as a Black man who wants most to transcend his milieu, not to be regarded as a "ghetto [N-word]," not to be a failed father of victims of the street, but rather to be able to provide well and to see his children live to their potential.

"King" Richard---not referred to as such the entire movie---is further shown as savvy beyond the wiles and lures of other, and White, men, from coaches to sports lawyers to potential sponsors. This trait is emphasized in the credit sequence.

Finally, the film makes clear that this journey is not one of an Everyman and His Progeny. It is specifically presented as a momentous accomplishment by a Black American man and his daughters, framed by televised reports of the beating of Rodney King and the decorated cornrows of Venus as she plays #1-ranked Arantxa Sanchez-Vicario.

So now I need to go see "TPotD" and "TT...B" for Benedict and Andrew, respectively.

I don’t think Smith will win this year. No one seems to be passionate about his performance (or the film, necessarily which, sight unseen, was being heralded as something a bit different than the finished product).

Cumberbatch or Garfield will get the Oscar (and I have a feeling it will be Garfield).

For info The Eyes Of Tammy Faye is released in cinemas in the UK on 4th February.

Belfast has been released today and I'm seeing a lot of "it's as good as people are saying it is" reviews from people with opinions.

I agree, R375. Smith ain’t getting the Oscar. And I do think momentum will build to Garfield. And it will be a highly emotional moment.

Lainey has pivoted back to a SAG nomination being significant, now that she's shilling for Ben Affleck (or, more likely, JLo). When SAG snubs KStew, they're a bunch of jealous losers. But when they recognize Dear Ben, well, those are his PEERS who RESPECT him. I'd love to ask her if the checks are worth the embarrassment.

[quote]I’ve been saying for weeks that Ben is a possibility for a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination and while he’s certainly not one of the frontrunners, his chances definitely got better last week when the Screen Actors Guild included him on their list for his performance in The Tender Bar, which is excellent. Again, this doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll get that Oscar call, but it’s an indication of how he’s perceived among his peers. It’s one thing, the public perception of Ben Affleck, but whatever his public image is, it’s not entirely matched within the industry. He’s been working a long time, he has worked with a LOT of people, some pretty influential people in the business. And that SAG nomination shows that there’s a lot of goodwill for Ben in those circles. The Oscar Academy’s actors’ voting branch is much smaller than SAG membership, but within that more narrow lane of actors, and more successful ones – on the measurement of general recognition and opportunity of work – I can’t imagine that he’s any less embraced in those circles.

Anyone but Nicole Kidman 🤡 and Will Smith 👠

Finally got around to Being the Ricardos this morning and while Kidman gives a phenomenal performance I still prefer Chastain as Tammy Faye which I streamed last night.

Only other Best Actress performance I saw was Gaga in the theaters and let's be serious here...that performance/film was one step up from Showgirls camp.

Plus, Tammy Faye is the only sympathetic character in the Top Five. Lady Macbeth conspires to murder. Lucille Ball is The Boss. Patrizia Reggiani hires a murderer. Olivia's Leda is a non-maternal maternal figure.

I also want to be spared a speech by the aggressively plain FMcD or the faux-surprised OC.

R382 Jennifer Hudson is nominated not McDormand. Do you work for Ms. Chastain?

Prediction: Lady Gaga, House of Gucci vs. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos Long Shot: Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Reasons why I think Lady Gaga could win: 1) The membership love the film. An ensemble nomination--especially for a panned film that was essentially a surprise nomination--indicates strength for the appreciation they have for her. It's not the be all/end all, though. Also, they nominated Jared Leto in a widely panned performance, which indicates further "strength." It's the most "populist" film of the five nominees, which will help her. Also, Gaga has never won a SAG for feature film.

However, Kidman has history on her side: If we go back and look at the Globe winners who lost SAG, we see a lot of examples early on. However, starting with Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich, there was a long list of Globe winners who also snagged the SAG. It wasn't until 2008 when Streep beat Winslet. However, it was an anomaly because Winslet was up for two different films. She won two feature Globes (Revolutionary Road in lead and The Reader in supporting). She only won the SAG for The Reader (in supporting), but that was shaping up to be her "Oscar role" (in lead). Streep, who hadn't won a SAG since they began 14 years prior, was honoured with an award, which the acting body often did in tight races (give the edge to the unawarded veteran). 2011 Globe Winner Streep would lose the SAG three years later to Viola Davis, partly because 1) She had just won a SAG, 2) The Help was a populist film nominated for a total of four awards including ensemble, 3) Viola Davis was shaping up to be one of the preeminent actors of her generation, as well as her race, and 4) Streep's performance wasn't beloved. Globe winner Andra Day wasn't nominated for SAG in 2020, so she couldn't win.

Kidman has also never won a SAG for feature length film before. In some ways, it may be "her time," much like Denzel Washington winning in 2015, even though Casey Affleck was the favourite throughout the award season and ended up winning Oscar. Kidman was considered box-office poison for a while and then turned her career around taking on character roles, that were often sympathetic and more mainstream. Critics reconsidered her place in Hollywood after Big Little Lies came out and she has been showing a lot of strength since then. Bardem also getting nominated indicates "strength" for the film beyond her performance.

I could see Gaga winning SAG, but Kidman taking BAFTA and winning Oscar. I could also see Kidman making a clean sweep.

I'll predict Kidman, just because she hasn't won SAG before, and the House of Gucci really isn't The Help (and Gaga isn't Viola Davis).

the Lucy movie was depressing

Kidman is not winning anything. Her portrait of Lucy is terrible.

Was Lucy really that downbeat and glum of a person?

I could see Colman, Gaga, Chastain, or even Stewart over Kidman. The Lucy movie is awful.

R382, Thinking of the Oscars, sorry. Yeah, I work for Jessica Chastain. She pays me good money to tout her on a board that has zero influence on critics and awards committees. I live the life o' Riley, I tell ya.

Seriously, watch her performance.

r53 Hollywood hates letting new people into its club. It's a self congratulatory thing, if they keep shoeing favor to the people they know best then those people will someday return the favor and the circle keeps spinning that way forever. Kind of like the control of the Oligarchs we have now over all aspects of our lives, destroy any avenue to the "others" moving in on their privilege.

R388 I’ve tried to watch it 3x. I even fast forwarded through their college years last time and I just can’t f’in do it. The same with Nicole. If you tell me where to find a scene she’s good in I’ll try again. I do like Jessica.

R388, don’t underestimate the influence of DL on awards committees. The AARP Movies For Grownups awards do exist.

I’d be fine with Chastain winning, too.

Jessica Chastain.....so woke, so brave.

R390, Perhaps you simply don't care for the person/s portrayed?

Because JC has TF down pat. But more than that, Chastain has a gift for nuance in her facial expressions, in her eyes (heh), in her "chipper" over loneliness. As someone posted above, the scene with the remote-broadcast interview with an AIDS patient is an Oscar-worthy micro-tour de force, with Chastain channeling Tammy Faye's forthright yet almost child-like love and acceptance not just of people, but of the entire human condition. (That interviewed man is still alive and shown in the credits.)

R392, Your post is clear as mud.

Chastain seemed nothing like the real Tammy Faye. Nowadays when you play a real person whom people are familiar with you got to do a bit of impersonation. Chastain seemed to opt not to try that.

um r389 see that bitch Olivia Colman stealing my Oscar!!!! I was ignored!!!!!

To summarize my "review" posts of Jessica Chastain in "GEoFF":

Many, maybe most, of us here think of Tammy Faye Bakker as a living caricature, a religious scammer with garish makeup, painted talons, and black mascara dripping with her tears.

Chastain's challenge was to show us the woman, not the carnival portrait. Yes, we get the excess makeup, the painted fingernails that dare not open a Coke can, the Big Hair, but we also get the human being who KNOWS, who HEARS the snickers, the criticism, the rumors, and who takes her faith and natural gumption and walks right up to them and says, "Hi! My name's Tammy Faye. What's yours?"

In retrospect, I think Jessica Chastain's and ultimately Tammy Faye Bakker's triumph is that by movie's end OUR humanity is touched. And we accept.

Whoa! Major typo on Kindle ^^^^!

"TEoTF."

The scene where Tammy Faye is speaking to the gay man on the monitor broke my heart. I thought Chastain was lovely. I hope she's nominated for an Oscar.

She'd be my pick for a win this year (haven't seen Cruz yet), but my guess is that Kidman will go all the way. Globe winners have been taking the Oscar lately in the Best Actress category, even in special instances where they miss the SAG win (unless they just completely miss the nomination like Andra Day).

Predicted nominees: Olivia Colman, Penelope Cruz, Gaga, Nicole Kidman

Chastain will have to battle it out with Stewart and Zegler for that last slot. It's going to be tough, especially if Stewart gets the BAFTA nomination.

nah r396

Chastain always seems a bit tense in her films.

She captured none of Tammy Faye's perky perseverance.

I've never seen a worse performance as I have with Kristen Stewart in Spencer. That movie was TERRIBLE. The acting was awful and the accents! *shudders* worst movie I've ever seen.

R400 Lol

Wonder who will get BAFTA nominated.

Joanna Scanlon, Olivia Colman and Lady Gaga are locks.

Cruz, Stewart, Kidman fighting it out for the last two slots I would say.

Doesn't BAFTA have that quota thing where a number of them have to be minorities like last year?

[quote]Wonder who will get BAFTA nominated. Joanna Scanlon, Olivia Colman and Lady Gaga are locks. Cruz, Stewart, Kidman fighting it out for the last two slots I would say.

[quote]15 performances will progress to Round Two of voting, and six will be nominated. To determine this longlist, in Round One the acting chapter voted; the top 12 were automatically longlisted. The remaining three places have been voted on by the Longlisting jury, who have considered the next 10 placed performances from the chapter vote. Round Two is voted on by a jury who will vote for the six nominations. In Round Three, the general voting membership will select the winner in this category. 82 performances were submitted for consideration.

BAFTA aren't going to nominate Stewart for anything!!!! Jennifer Lawrence is more likely to get a nomination than Stewart. And Tessa Thompson will be there for Passing. BAFTA is *very* conscious about racial diversity and they'll want to champion Rebecca Hall.

A dark horse is Emilia Jones for Coda, who it was revealed this week is the daughter of former child singer turned TV presenter and occasional sex pest Aled Jones.

So when the jury takes racial diversity, promoting British talent or British movies and red carpet attendees I'd say the six will be

COLMAN (RC, B), GAGA (RC), JONES (B), KIDMAN (RC) SCANLAN (B), THOMPSON (RD, B)

Emilia Jones was 'nice' in CODA but hardly award worthy stuff.

Last year BAFTA nominated 2 African actresses into the mix ok. One was named Bukky. BAFTA is like out there now.

Wait last year BAFTA had FOUR black actresses (2 African), mcdormand (winner), and Vanessa Kirby lol.

R404. what are the meanings of the letters in parentheses?

For the life of me, I can't figure it out...

[quote]Last year BAFTA nominated 2 African actresses into the mix ok. One was named Bukky

They're not African, they're British. Bukky Bakray was nominated for Rocks, which is a great movie and got 7 nominations in total. Wunmi Mosaku has already won a tv BAFTA and has been in countless prestige TV shows. Mosaku is also a SAG nominee.

An American called Radha Blank was also nominated. Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan didn't make the nominations but Alfre Woodward was a nice surprise.

[quote]So when the jury takes racial diversity, promoting British talent or British movies and red carpet attendees

[quote][R404]. what are the meanings of the letters in parentheses? For the life of me, I can't figure it out...

RD = racial diversity

B = British

RC = red carpet

R409 Yeah, like I said. 4 of 6 nominees Black women (2 so British they got fuckin African accents) and you should know damn well the only one there on merit is Alfred Woodard.

That Woodard made it in for a small indie film is what you could call the success of the new affirmative action nominating process. That there are 3 actresses in because of the color of their skin is something else., something you wouldn’t really call success.

[quote][R409] Yeah, like I said. 4 of 6 nominees Black women (2 so British they got fuckin African accents) and you should know damn well the only one there on merit is Alfred Woodard.

Wunmi Mosaka has a Manchester accent, because she's lived in Manchester since the age of 1.

Bukky Bakray has a typical London accent, because she was born and grew up in London.

I've not seen Mosaka's movie but I have seen Rocks and it was fantastic. I enjoyed it a lot more than Nomadland. And Bukky Bakray gave a great performance.

Young actors are often overlooked for their debut performances and I'm glad Bakray was nominated.

I thought BAFTA made the award season more interesting last year.

Ultimately, though, they voted for the highest profile nominee (or one of).

R394, You couldn't possibly have seen the movie. Or watched the Bakkers' TV show.

Indeed, you quite obviously didn't see the movie's post-script, where the actors' portrayals are shown in split-screen with the real people, with JC as a TFB doppelganger, in appearance, speech, and movement.

The Oscars will be a joke if they give Gaga an Oscar for that ridiculous performance. To think that she could have two Oscars while some talented actors still have none.

I voted for Jessica and Will.

For what, R417? SAG?

[418] Yes

Kenneth Branagh is such a bullshit artist on the THR Director’s Roundtable.

I've grown to hate all those "please give me an Oscar interviews."

Gold Derby is the worst.

"And now an art director from some foreign film you never heard of"

[quote]So when the jury takes racial diversity, promoting British talent or British movies and red carpet attendees I'd say the six will be COLMAN (RC, B), GAGA (RC), JONES (B), KIDMAN (RC) SCANLAN (B), THOMPSON (RD, B)

[quote]Based on that list I would expect BAFTA to narrow their 6 nominees down to BALFE - BUCKLEY - DE BOSE - DUNST - NEGGA - ROBINSON

I got 4 out of 6 right on both!

Not that surprised about Kidman but very surprised about Colman and Dunst missing out, but pleased for Ann Dowd.

I love Ann Dowd in everything but shame on BAFTA for giving in to category fraud. No way should Dowd be in the Supporting category. She’s one of the leads in Mass, she’s supporting nobody in that film.

Clear Fraud!

Bafta cunts.

FRAUD!

Fuck off, Diane/R424.

Tee hee.

Did Diane’s Flo say “Kiss mah grits”? Or just Polly’s?

Dunst does but play a doormat in that Campion piece of garbage.

Ha ha - nothing for 🤡 Nicole

R426 shes a really good doormat and if that film is garbage you have shit taste.

So we know Gaga and (probably) Haim were the leading vote getters from actual BAFTA members. Does that mean they have the best chance to win? Or does the jury now select from the finalists?

(Not sure how it works, sorry)

R429 No, now the entire BAFTA membership vote for the winner.

My guess is it's between Gaga and Joanna Scanlan.

Since 2000 the BAFTA and Oscar best actress have aligned in all but a handful of cases.

Judi Dench won BAFTA for Iris, Halle Berry wasn't nominated that year because Monster's Ball hadn't been released, and she got nominated the following year

Scarlett Johansson won BAFTA for Lost In Translation - Charlize wasn't nominated because Monster hadn't been released, and she got nominated the following year

Imelda Staunton won BAFTA for Vera Drake - Million Dollar Baby didn't get any nominations, that year or the following year,

Carey Mulligan won for An Education - The Blind Side was never nominated.

Emmanuelle Riva won for Amour, beating Jennifer Lawrence

And that's it!

Really? So really just three times technically.

And two of those three times it was a huge Hollywood star (Sandy and JLaw) who won Oscar over European BAFTA winning actresses.

Interesting. Very, very interesting. Big huge stars.

In the shallow, sha-ha-ha-ha-low...

R431 Well it ain't aligning this year because I'm winning and I'm not eligible for the Oscar.

The Oscar's will ignore me next year.

R430, you haven’t seen Renate Reinsve’s performance yet? It’s highly possible she’ll win.

R434 I loved her film and she was great in it. No I don't think she'll win.

Where is Renate’s movie available to stream?

R436 Not sure, but it's being released in theatres all over North America this week.

I can't believe that Jamie Dornan wasn't nominated for Belfast.

[quote]I can't believe that Jamie Dornan wasn't nominated for Belfast.

It's been suggested the 2 automatic nominations were Kodi Smit McPhee and Ciaran Hinds, and the jury didn't like Dornan enough.

Quiz: The actor with the most BAFTA best supporting actor nominations died of AIDS. Who was he? He had 3 wins out of 7 nominations.

I think Kodi and Troy Kotsur were the top two.

Yaas Woody Norman got nominated! Seems difficult but I hope he wins. Kodi SMP (and Power of the Dog) were underwhelming.

But as of 2020, BAFTA might as well be a brand new awards show. Previous trends don't apply.

That would be Denholm Elliott, r439.

I can't believe only the top two vote getters actually get a nomination.

That's so fucking dumb.

I could see saving ONE slot for a jury selection.

It should also be noted that last year, BAFTA pretty much went with the most "popular" for the winners, despite the more niche path to nominations.

So Gaga it is for Oscar, if Scanlan can't beat her.

But, even then, Gaga is probably winning SAG (Kidman has a slight chance).

Kidman won the Drama Globe; Zegler won the C/M Globe and NBR; Colman won one of the lead Gotham awards; and Cruz won Venice/LAFCA/NSFC. In this group alone, Kidman's win has the most capital. Then, if Gaga wins SAG (having won NYFCC) and Scanlan or Gaga wins BAFTA, the only thing really stopping Gaga from winning Oscar is if she isn't nominated (unlikely) or The Academy falls in love with Being the Ricardos (possible, but seemingly improbable). She essentially has to lose SAG and/or BAFTA for Kidman to have a chance (which is already remote).

My prediction for nominees:

1. Gaga (a lock)

2. Kidman (it would be--I think--unprecedented for her to miss here, having won the Drama Globe)

3. Colman (she missed at BAFTA, but the AMPAS love her and she is one of the "easier" categories for them to recognise The Lost Daughter, even if the whole project is a bit messy)

4. Cruz (she missed in some of the most important places--Globes, SAG, BAFTA--which is damning, but she also scored a telling trifecta; no actress to take Venice/LAFCA/NSFC has missed an Oscar nod)

5. Haim, Stewart, Zegler, or Chastain (I can't see any of them for various reasons, but somebody has got to get in)

a. Haim (the BAFTA nod not only suggested she is still in the game, but she was probably top 2, which is quite telling; the Globe loss and "controversy" won't help, but she also has the advantage of not playing a popular icon this year)

b. Stewart (the industry is cool on this film and she missed BAFTA (as well as SAG), which wasn't encouraging after playing The People's Princess)

c. Zegler (she has won some major awards, but her movie has kind of fizzled; a nomination for her would add more diversity, which the AMPAS might want to do)

d. Chastain (this is one of my favourite performances for this category, but she has little going for her in terms of wins and she missed BAFTA like most of her other major competitors).

The race would be more interesting if one of the last four had a chance at a win, which doesn't seem likely.

Correction: Kidman bought the drama Globe

If you're going to make a purchase during awards season, R446, the return on investment is quite good (fifth Oscar nomination ain't a bad level to make).

Kidman (or her staff) thanked the HFPA for her nomination on instagram. Very few if any other people did that. So they rewarded her.

R445 Honey you forgot me!

I know my performance is only adequate but I play the iconic Aretha Franklin.

Oh gawd, I’m a wreck after that live Zoom Q&A. Eddie Redmayne and Andrew Garfield were just so sweet together. Andrew does lay on the platitudes about art and work way too thick but they’re heartfelt platitudes so I can’t be too cranky about him.

Will Smith gives the kind of dumb-but-wise-daddy tricked out performance voters cream over. It will probably be Cumberbatch for the SAG, but Smith for the Oscar.

Have you posters watched "Being the Ricardos"?! There is no way Kidman, just by lowering her usual voice, gave a better performance; showed more character growth (her Lucille is one-note "I'm the Boss here, fellas!"); displayed more humanity; or gave the audience any revealing insight to engender sympathy or even empathy; than did Jessica Chastain.

Oh, but Nicole and Olivia are "serious AC-TORS," and must be lauded!

London Critics award Olivia Colman and Benedict Cumberbatch best actress and actor, and give Tilda Swinton and Andrew Garfield best British actress and actor, despite Olivia and Benedict also being British.

Hmmm.....where's that asshole that gave me crap for saying the SAGS and Oscars don't always match up?

HUGE discrepancies between the two this year...8 differences between the two groups in the 4 acting categories.

I had to leave early from a virtual SAG-AFTRA Q&A with cast members of Don’t Look Up moderated by David O. Russell, of all people. His “enthusiasm” for the film was downright embarrassing. And it’s very clear that he is quite an asshole.

I just voted. Chastain/Garfield/Balfe/Smit-McPhee/cast of Belfast. And Murray Bartlett for The White Lotus.

Kristy McNichol is out?

So will this be the thread for the actual ceremony?

R458 there already is…

SAG Awards Analysis: Oscar Race Upended As ‘CODA’, Jessica Chastain & Apple Score Big In First Test Of Guild Strength:

The French film CODA is based on is far superior.

Yes, you already claimed that in the SAGs thread, R461.