Hold me, David: We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe,’ new study says
“if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America — the same way you’d look at events in Ukraine or the Ivory Coast or Venezuela — you would go down a checklist, assessing each of the conditions that make civil war likely. And what you would find is that the United States, a democracy founded more than two centuries ago, has entered very dangerous territory.”
Indeed, the United States has already gone through what the CIA identifies as the first two phases of insurgency — the “pre-insurgency” and “incipient conflict” phases — and only time will tell whether the final phase, “open insurgency,” began with the sacking of the Capitol by Donald Trump supporters on Jan. 6.
Things deteriorated so dramatically under Trump, in fact, that the United States no longer technically qualifies as a democracy. [italic] Citing the Center for Systemic Peace’s “Polity” data set — the one the CIA task force has found to be most helpful in predicting instability and violence — Walter writes that the United States is now an “anocracy,” somewhere between a democracy and an autocratic state.[/italic]
U.S. democracy had received the Polity index’s top score of 10, or close to it, for much of its history. But in the five years of the Trump era, it tumbled precipitously into the anocracy zone; by the end of his presidency, the U.S. score had fallen to a 5, making the country a partial democracy for the first time since 1800. “We are no longer the world’s oldest continuous democracy,” Walter writes. “That honor is now held by Switzerland, followed by New Zealand, and then Canada. We are no longer a peer to nations like Canada, Costa Rica, and Japan, which are all rated a +10 on the Polity index.”
Dropping five points in five years greatly increases the risk of civil war (six points in three years would qualify as “high risk” of civil war). “A partial democracy is three times as likely to experience civil war as a full democracy,” Walter writes. “A country standing on this threshold — as America is now, at +5 — can easily be pushed toward conflict through a combination of bad governance and increasingly undemocratic measures that further weaken its institutions.”
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 35 | December 24, 2021 8:02 PM
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The question now is whether we can pull back from the abyss Trump’s Republicans have led us to. There is no more important issue; democracy is the foundation of everything else in America. Democrats, in a nod to this reality, are talking about abandoning President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda in favor of pro-democracy voting rights legislation. Republicans will fight it tooth and nail.
The enemies of democracy must not be allowed to prevail. We are on the doorstep of the “open insurgency” stage of civil conflict, and Walter writes that once countries cross that threshold, the CIA predicts, “sustained violence as increasingly active extremists launch attacks that involve terrorism and guerrilla warfare, including assassinations and ambushes.”
by Anonymous | reply 1 | December 19, 2021 10:07 PM
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I'm gonna end up scrubbing the floors in some cheap whorehouse in the Adirondacks.
by Anonymous | reply 3 | December 19, 2021 10:10 PM
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I am absolutely dreading the 2024 presidential election.
by Anonymous | reply 4 | December 19, 2021 10:10 PM
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Canada's building a wall.
by Anonymous | reply 5 | December 19, 2021 10:13 PM
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[quote]Democrats, in a nod to this reality, are talking about abandoning President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda in favor of pro-democracy voting rights legislation. Republicans will fight it tooth and nail.
Manchin and Sinema will fight it too.
by Anonymous | reply 6 | December 19, 2021 10:16 PM
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It’s crazy. These right wingers really don’t have anything much to complain about as far as their lives are concerned. It’s all resentment and hatred of others based on 30 years of propaganda (AKA lies). It’s all in their heads. No one is suppressing them in actual fact, and they’re free to do just about whatever they want. The people stealing from them are the ones they support. And they want civil war over this.
by Anonymous | reply 7 | December 19, 2021 10:19 PM
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I don’t blame the OP, since the Washington Post is a “prestigious” paper, but predicting civil war is not only irresponsible but just dumb. This is clickbait of the highest order.
We have a much stronger federal government than we did in 1860 for one. State guard numbers are completely dwarfed by the Federal armed forces. What lines would boundaries be drawn on? Can you imagine if California, the New England, and Mid-Atlantic states decided to cut off all shipping, water, supplies, internet, power, medicine, Disney+, to “enemy” (if there is such a thing) states?
Maybe Texas could manage, but that would be it. Good luck for Arizona, Utah, North and South Dakota, and Idaho being able to feed themselves.
Could we have more civil unrest? Sure. That isn’t the same as civil war.
by Anonymous | reply 9 | December 19, 2021 11:01 PM
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Why are people so obsessed with doomsday prophesying this weekend? Jesus Christ.
by Anonymous | reply 11 | December 19, 2021 11:09 PM
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They're tired of Hallmark Christmas movies, r11
by Anonymous | reply 12 | December 19, 2021 11:13 PM
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[quote] Maybe Texas could manage,
Pffft. Texas couldn’t even handle a dinky dusting of snow!
by Anonymous | reply 13 | December 19, 2021 11:24 PM
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R9, these generals who have studied all kinds of wars say we must prepare for a 2024 Insurrection. We are closed to a civil war and trump must be prosecuted for the last Insurrection. They also say there will probably be problems with members of the military being part of a 2024 insurrection. They already have national guard generals in the military who have publicly stated they will not listen to Joe Biden, they will only listen to their governors (who are republican).
There are thousands of trumpers who have posted on social media that they are ready to arm themselves and "take back what's ours"
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 14 | December 20, 2021 12:27 AM
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I don’t think there will be a civil war. Americans are not going to attack other states. Maybe MAGA will attack government buildings, but there will not be Texas attacking California. The bigger danger is Republicans stealing office and never letting a Democrat win again. Then we have an authoritarian government that strips any civil rights. That could happen faster than people think.
by Anonymous | reply 15 | December 20, 2021 12:33 AM
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That fat sack of orange shit needs to die. Then all the “Patriots” might shut the fuck up.
They’d be lost without that fucking piece of flaming dog shit.
by Anonymous | reply 16 | December 20, 2021 9:10 PM
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It's not going to be state against state. It's going to be city against country.
Personally, if the red states want to secede, I say let 'em.
by Anonymous | reply 17 | December 20, 2021 9:18 PM
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It is obvious Trump will not be prosecuted for anything. Remember all those NY state charges that were going to be filed the moment he left office? Crickets.
by Anonymous | reply 18 | December 20, 2021 9:25 PM
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Until Rupert Murdoch is drawn and quartered for what he's done to this country, nothing will change
by Anonymous | reply 19 | December 20, 2021 9:28 PM
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[quote]Remember all those NY state charges that were going to be filed the moment he left office? Crickets.
Apparently parallel civil and criminal investigations into Trump are ongoing in New York.
Offsite Linkby Anonymous | reply 20 | December 20, 2021 10:38 PM
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The South has never gotten over losing. I actually think there’s generational animosity affecting how red states view blue ones. Really, I think the sanest thing to do would be to peacefully secede, but I don’t think that can be accomplished. The wealth is concentrated in blue areas.
by Anonymous | reply 21 | December 20, 2021 10:44 PM
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^I thought the Red States were self sufficient and don’t want or need any sort of financial assistance from the Federal Government.
by Anonymous | reply 22 | December 20, 2021 11:23 PM
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Sure, R22, they have coal and Mountain Dew.
by Anonymous | reply 23 | December 20, 2021 11:47 PM
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Secede? LOL! Y'all are kidding yourselves. It would start with more Vanilla ISIS acts but they'd invade the Blue States within a year.
What fun is life when you can only shoot and kill or "own" other Cons?
by Anonymous | reply 24 | December 21, 2021 12:33 AM
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^The Red States might finally realize how dependent they are on Federal funding from the Blue States
by Anonymous | reply 25 | December 21, 2021 11:10 AM
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They have all the guns R25, they can get money.
by Anonymous | reply 26 | December 21, 2021 11:22 AM
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I'm dreading the 2022 and 2024 elections.
by Anonymous | reply 27 | December 21, 2021 6:46 PM
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The investigations against trump will be drawn out. He'll launch his lawsuits, like he always does, to bog everything down. By the time (if) anything is done, he may be Potus.
by Anonymous | reply 28 | December 21, 2021 6:56 PM
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....which will be his "protection" against any consequences of his criminal activity...^^
by Anonymous | reply 29 | December 21, 2021 6:58 PM
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... That's what he's doubling down and gambling on^^^. There's no other way.
by Anonymous | reply 30 | December 21, 2021 7:00 PM
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thank democraps for that!
by Anonymous | reply 31 | December 21, 2021 7:32 PM
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[16] you first and take the demented buffoon with you.
by Anonymous | reply 32 | December 21, 2021 7:37 PM
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What are the think tanks today and what all are they saying?
by Anonymous | reply 33 | December 24, 2021 7:23 PM
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[quote] The upcoming book 'How Civil Wars Start' lays out a scary future.
That’s how you sell a book.
by Anonymous | reply 34 | December 24, 2021 7:41 PM
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