Most likely to secede

Quebec finds it too profitable just to threaten secession.

No clue about Catalonia or Venice.

Texas would be too complicated.

Scotland is where Quebec was forty or fifty years ago... a referendum might do the trick.

All of the Confederate States.

It’s more likely that California will secede after Trump’s back.

Texas doesn't need to secede. If pushed too far they are entitled to divide the state into a total of five states givign them ten senators.

This was almost done once but they couldn't agree who got custody of the Alamo.

[quote] New States of convenient size not exceeding four in number, in addition to said State of Texas and having sufficient population, may, hereafter by the consent of said State, be formed out of the territory thereof, 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒄𝒉 𝒔𝒉𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒃𝒆 𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒊𝒕𝒍𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒐 𝒂𝒅𝒎𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒗𝒊𝒔𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑭𝒆𝒅𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒕𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏

Scotland needs to wait for its old people to die out. The younger generations are overwhelmingly in support of a divorce from Wastemonster. Shoring up a system that still fetishises its imperial past is expensive for the devolved nations especially when they have practically no capacity to borrow, and have to be content with an unequal and unfair return on their contribution to the UK. We have been dragged out of the EU against our will, and to top it all, Boris Johnson and his race to the bottom is hardly going to encourage us to stay. The UK is a dying entity. England has made sure of that.

I can't imagine Texans consenting to give up their "second-biggest" status even if it means getting 2-8 more senators (not all of whom would be Republican, probably). In any case the wording of that resolution seems to give discretion for any such division to the Congress of the US, with the consent of Texas. And did those terms remain the same when Texas was readmitted to the US in 1870?

There’s talk about part of Eastern Oregon joining Idaho. Nobody’d miss ‘em.

I doubt that many Texans are willing to give up US citizenship.

If I could have voted for 'none', I would have. But I voted for Scotland because they're the only ones with a party in power there who can vote through a new referendum. I doubt even if they got a second one that they would win it but it's the most likely option of the ones given.

There was an interesting article not too long ago (in the NYT maybe) that predicted Northern Ireland would rejoin Ireland in less than ten years. The population studies suggest Catholics are on par with, or have a slight gain over, Protestants population wise. They’ll know in the next census. Some counties in NI are now overwhelming Catholic. The thing is the Catholics in NI are entitled to an Irish and British passport. If they go Irish, they lose their British rights. Are they willing to do that?

I don't know why they couldn't grandfather passport rights. Anybody with UK born parents or grandparents can get a UK passport. It's not like they're inventing flexibility. A united Ireland would leave Scotland as the only loud whiners in the area.

Northern Ireland can't secede. Scotland can and probably will but Boris Johnson won't allow another vote. Catalonia will never be allowed.

I got voted most likely to secede in my senior yearbook!

Puerto Rico. Actually, I can see the US cutting PR loose before they'd actually want to secede.