So will the US default on it's debt?

This is the usual theatrics. Default, WaPo says, would wipe out 6 million jobs and 15 trillion in wealth.

I expect, regretfully, the Dems will bend in some way and probably have to... the shouldn't find their spine in a rush. But soon, they need to start fucking the Republicans right back. But not in a way that would wipe out 6 million jobs. If the assessment is 10% right that's a hard one to come back from.

The Repubs will burn it all down just to make Dems look bad. They're so patriotic. /s

Mitch isn't crazy/stupid enough to flush the US economy down the toilet just to get at Biden.

Is he?

China is our #1 creditor. Hmm . . .

Sue Jinah for Covid, then negotiate the settlement via debt reduction.

Eventually, yes, but not in the next few years. I think if Trump becomes president again, then yes, as part of a very aggressive strategy vs. China.

So will OP learn proper punctuation?

[quote]Mitch isn't crazy/stupid enough to flush the US economy down the toilet just to get at Biden.

Mitchy is 79 years old and slower that he used to be, but just as evil. He'll do ANYTHING that makes him and the Republicans look good to the ignorant masses. Most of these idiots think that raising the debt ceiling means it allows add'l deficit spending.

R7 I corrected it at the poll

No.

There are something like $26 TRILLION in US Treasury securities outstanding, only $7 TRILLION of which are in foreign hands. The rest are held by US entities, like pension funds, insurance companies, banks and mutual funds and the US Federal Reserve. It would indeed bring the entire financial system crashing down and there would be no fixing it.

Far more likely is a US government shutdown and even delays in entitlement spending until the pain becomes intolerable for everyone on both sides of the aisle.

Historically, in substance default happens more by currency depreciation and inflation than outright default, particularly among sovereign currency issuers such as the US.

This would be an excellent opportunity if the Democrats could get it together. Remove the filibuster temporarily, if Manchin and Sinema and the people who hide behind them will agree.

Then, pay back. Pass the CR and permanently remove the debt ceiling. Then, to teach Mitch and his enablers a lesson, pass voting rights and Dreamers.

Just what we need... a U.S. government shut down during the wave.

As I was saying...

quick reminder:

"it's": contraction of "it is"

"its": possessive, i.e. "its debt".

OP: you don't know how many grammar queens you made happy by your poll correction.

Like a toddler making a mess and then ordering his parents to clean it up because it is their house.

It's clear that the ONLY thing McTurtle cares about is his own power. He wants to make the Dems own the debt ceiling raise b/c he thinks it's a winning issue for the GOP in 2022. He wants to win back the senate and be the ganze macher again and he thinks this will help.

Absolutely, positively not. Even the Republicans' most loyal donors would never forgive them if they dared to wipe out billions in wealth to prove a point.

Horrible game of chicken because they don't see any other way to stay in power. I hate it.

Polls show that if we default most people will blame Democrats.

If inflation soars they get a campaign issue.

If it effects the stock market, it mostly damages "liberal" blue America...and a bludgeon to goad the business community into shaping up and supporting them.

Jake Sherman:

[quote] I’ve covered a lot of these debt limit fights dating back to 2011. This may be the worst/scariest.

[quote] Rs say use reconciliation. Ds say no. Out of the question.

[quote] 20 days left. No plan b.

The rethugs' corporate overloads would skin them all alive if they allowed the US to default.

The crisis of 2007-08 would be NOTHING compared to the havoc and dogs of war if the US defaulted.

Repugs always play this stupid game when the Democrats are in power. You cant spend like drunken sailors on Billion dollar tax cuts one year, then not pay it when the bill comes due. Thats all this is, it has to be paid and they all know it. Stupid game of chicken to try and make the Democrats look bad. I predict it's going to backfire. I have no doubt they will let it default. But here's the thing, once the stock market takes a huge dive, the rich and wealthy who are mostly Republicans will start to scream about their losses. McTrutle will have to give in the vote will happen. Of course he will TRY to blame it on the Dems but with the vote all the Repugs just took to tank the economy, it's not going to work. It's their fault plain as day.

If it happens it will wipe billions - maybe a trillion - off the stock market with no guarantees about the way back.

It is hard to imagine the handful of Republican donors who really pull the strings won't pick up the phone to McConnell at some point and tell him you've had your fun, stop it.

Hoping R20 & R22 are correct.

These tweets seems to make sense as well:

Russian tools Manchin and Sinema are working together with Moscow Mitch to help facilitate US economic default.

I want to believe we are better than this...

The main strategy large economies use is to allow inflation to rage for a while devaluing their currency.

Before the Euro it was almost a stated aim of the PIIGS Countries.

When your 401k is suddenly worth half as much overnight, you know who did it.

WHY THE FUCK ARE DEMS SO SPINELESS!!!!!!!!!!!! Those couple DEM senators who are FUCKING EVERYTHING and everyone - should be "retired."

R23 isn’t there a deputy?

The stock market dropped 500 points today so we will see.

[quote]Mitchy is 79 years old and slower that he used to be, but just as evil. He'll do ANYTHING that makes him and the Republicans look good to the ignorant masses.

And of course he will get an assist from the media, which will either find a way to "both sides" it like they usually do or just blame Biden and the Democrats outright. It's too bad, as Eric Boehlert says, the headline you won't see is, "GOP Votes to Derail Economy."

Mitch McConnell says the US won't default on its debt as he pushes the US closer to defaulting on its debt

Biden's Multi-Trillion Dollar Welfare package is going to raise taxes on every person in the U.S, not just "the rich."

Someone’s gonna have to break down cunt bones and get shit done. And do something with that Marjorie chick. Not a good look.

Come on Mitch it's your debt the Dems are trying to pay back....get those Big Boy Pants out of the closet, grow some balls and get voting. Lead by example!

Infants are going to have to start paying taxes? ^^^^^

When the stock market is down 25%, there will be a come to Jesus.

R29:

From the link:

[quote] She's expected to work from home during that period.

[quote] The Senate parliamentarian, the arbiter of what can be included in Democrats' sprawling reconciliation bill, will be out for two weeks for surgery to treat stage 3 breast cancer.

[quote] How lawmakers learned: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell made the announcement to their respective caucuses Tuesday.

[quote] Why it matters: The parliamentarian is expected to deliver several key rulings on what Democrats can put in their reconciliation package in the coming weeks, as the majority party struggles to assemble a workable bill.

But then, there is also this:

The senators on both sides are probably timing their actions in order to win on the Stockmarket.

The democrats need to get together and have a retreat and talk about what they need to do for messaging in all 50 states. Enough people complain about the inadequate communication but nothing is ever done about it. Who is going to take control in the Democratic Party and get out the message? They need to spread out from the coasts.

This is the responsibility for both parties. The rethugs shut down the government in 2013 and paid for it dearly.

Don’t let the republicans ignore their personal responsibility.

This is the tipping point. 60 percent of the country hates these republicans and they keep pushing the American people to their limits.

How much further are these rethugs going to push the average America? They are terrorists.

Let the rethugs keep this up. These turds have ruined the country. Absolutely ruined it!!!!

If I were the Dems, I'd go the shutdown route. Shut down the Fed gov't, then cut off Social Security payments. When red state people stop getting their checks, there will be plenty of howling. Easy enough to blame the GQP.

R44, that’s not how it works. Shutdown would not end Social Security payments. Debt default would, but there would be too much other economic disaster go have that be the sole rallying point.

Why not, R45? Why can't Treasury decide to delay SS pmts? See R13.

Why is it up to the democrats? There are two parties.

Mitch just needed a fundraising stunt just in time for November 2021 elections.

In which no one is paying attention to other than Yertle himself.

R46, that link proves my point. You don’t seem to understand the difference between a shutdown and a failure to raise the debt ceiling (detailed at r13).

I do understand it, R48. And I understand there are many gray areas that the Administration can interpret as it wills. Sure, people can file court cases against it. But those take time. Meanwhile, no checks in the mail.

I think yes, but liked the Manchin and Sinema are cunts option better because it is true.

R34...if billionaires and corporations would be pay their fair share we could have nice things...and do fuck off

[quote] Biden's Multi-Trillion Dollar Welfare package is going to raise taxes on every person in the U.S, not just "the rich."

R33 I sure hope you are well paid to post lies.

r33 is the rightwing troll who enters every conversation, no matter what it's about, to post lies about Biden and other democrats.

Just ignore the fool.

Two groups that will suffer most will be those old people on Social Security (Mostly republicans) and those heavy in the Stock Market (Mostly republicans) so probably - but not definitely - no default.

Really all the US has to do is have a harmonized federal purchase tax, in most other countries around 20 percent is the norm.

Local purchase taxes can be replaced with higher property tax for businesses.

The rich who are mostly Republican are not going to stand for this. They will pull all the strings and McTrutle will get a call to cut it the fuck out. You don't shit where you eat Mitch.

Yes, and there will be apostrophe rations for OP!

O'h, d'ea'r!

I really need my ssdi check to be on time.

If Social Security payments are late, a lot of senior citizens will be angry. Surely the Republicans remember those people turn out to vote?

Sadly SS checks aren't affected in a shutdown

Yes, they will. In fact they may the first to go. Too complicated to get into but the funds can and will be used for other things.

R61, no shutdown has ever lasted long enough for that to happen

Not talking about "shutdown". That's happened a few times before. Talking about National Debt Default.

I want the shut down. I want people to hurt. Especially old conservative Republicans. That's what it's going to take for them to bitch and cut this stupid game of chicken out.

Another option is for the Dems to 'surgically' suspend the filibuster for the debt ceiling vote, like the Rs did with federal judge appointments during Obama's term. I'm guessing Manchin and Sinema would go along with this if the alternative is default. Does anyone know of a real reason the Senate can't do this? I.e., is it possible to change senate rules with a simple majority vote?

Don't assume Manchin or Sinema will go along with anything. At this point it's obvious they have shown their true colors.

R66 are you suggesting they want a default?

How come when the government shut down last time, you all blamed the Republicans and now this time, you all still blame the Republicans.

On one of the national news shows last night they said specifically that even if the government shuts down tonight Social Security benefits would still go out as usual. Whether they know what they're talking about or not, who knows.

A shutdown seems to have been averted at this point. I’m sure the stupid debt ceiling issue will be solved too.

The GOP always fights the debt ceiling increase because its stupid base thinks the debt ceiling refers to future debt not the debt that has already occurred

R68, because it’s usually caused by Republicans refusing to negotiate some stupid point.

They want attention. If that comes in the form of a default they don't care. Like they say, even bad publicity is good publicity.

Well R69 the problem is when the gov't can't float new issuances of Treasuries. If the debt ceiling isn't raised, Treasury will have to choose between servicing outstanding debt and funding entitlement programs. There isn't enough tax money coming in to do both.

[quote]How come when the government shut down last time, you all blamed the Republicans and now this time, you all still blame the Republicans.

Because we are not Simpltons and know it's not about each side being equally as bad. Sometimes there really is a wright and wrong person or party to an argument. A right an wrong side of history.

The Dems need to grow a pair of balls this time and do exactly what the Republicans would do without a second thought. Play hard ball, let it go into default. Biden could issue some kind of executive order to pay the Social Security and other things to the "little people" and then we can sit and watch as the stock market blows up, rich get frantic out of their minds and force the Republicans to come crawling back to the table and stop the bleeding.

The public does usually blame the president or government in power so it'll probably be the Dems who cave at the last minute.

Yes R76 but that cuts both ways. As I said above, the president can come to the the rescue of the little people if they play their cards right.

R77 Yes, but nothing has said to me that the Dems have the balls to do that. McConnell yes, but not the Dems.

I never said the Dems had the balls, I said they need to grow a pair.

The big picture is the bigger threat - and it is global. Blowing up the stock market won't just hurt fat cats - the feel good factor of that as one good thing about it is hopelessly naive. Everybody's retirement savings are tied up in the markets. Everybody's. If you have a pension, its asserts are invested. Nobody paid enough to into their pension to sustain all they're going to get. Or were before default tanked the markets. Markets won't just rally in a few days. You really want to take the whole world down with you?

The results in the long term - economically, politically, alliances, flow of capital, reserve currency status, currency value, trust - they can estimate the economic carnage but the political ripple effect is incalculable. Everything comes into a play. Recession begins overnight, income stability staggers, eventually crime rises, house prices fall, Trump rides in and sails to re-election with lies and easy answers.

I know the U.S. thinks it is the economic center of the world but do you imagine even the U.S. capitalists are loyal? They're loyal to stability. If the U.S.'s is thrown away, no one knows what will happen but you can pretty much be guaranteed sentiment won't prevail.

This is jumping without a parachute. This is not just the usual American dysfunction. For once we better hope the moneyed overlords that run the Republicans - and the Democrats, come to that - pick up the phone because the loss could be much more than just a couple trillion. It would be an economic and political COVID. It would render the country demonstrably untrustworthy. It would shatter the U.S. standing in the world.

"An estimate from Moody's Analytics earlier this month predicted that in a prolonged default scenario, the U.S. would slide into recession, with the Gross Domestic Product falling by almost 4%. Some six million jobs would be lost, driving the unemployment rate up to 9%. The resulting stock market sell-off would erase $15 trillion in household wealth. In the short term, interest rates would spike, and in the long term, they would never fall back to pre-default lows.

But the damage from a U.S. default would not be contained to the United States itself. Securities issued by the U.S. have been so trustworthy for so long that they are treated as essentially risk-free in financial markets, and are used to underpin a vast number of financial contracts worldwide.

"The U.S. Treasury market is the world's anchor asset," said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "If it turns out that that asset is not actually risk free, but that it can actually default, that would basically detonate a bomb in the middle of the global financial system. And that will be extremely messy."

Let turtle shit where he eats.

I'll enjoy watching him be forced to eat his own shit when his big donors kick him in the cunt bone for blowing up the stock market.

A shutdown has been averted. Funding secured through December via a stopgap funding vote.

^ that's appropriations, but not funding

they still need to raise the debt ceiling or it will shut down cuz they aint nuff scratch!

Republicans just playing games as usual. They will probably make a few million each on the stock market today.

Two times in a row now, the debt limit has been dealt with, without any drama. It's weird.

What do you mean, R85?

I mean, under Obama, the entire government shut down, and it was a HUGE drama.

Under Biden, it's just quietly handled and dealt with. They even had to carve out an exception to the filibuster to get it passed this last time, but it was just done quietly and without drama.

Hrm. I wonder what the difference is.

The Republicans ALWAYS threaten to shut down the government when Democrats are in charge, sometimes do for a short time. But eventually they're forced to back down. And they never seem to have a problem raising the debt limit when they're in charge.

R88 Republicans started playing that double standard scam during the 1990s with Newt Gingrich and they haven't stopped.

Republicans can’t even pretend to care about the national debt any more. All they care about is Trump. They have no other beliefs.