Justin Trudeau calls Election Part II

original thread

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But he didn't make a call on the outcome, did he? Majority v minority?

I thought things were supposed to improve?

That's very unflattering photo, OP. His nose is getting as big as Karl Malden's or an Italian organ grinder's.

Trudeau looking good in Sudbury yesterday -- standing up to anti-vaxxers:

She is looking haggard.

Canadians are lucky they don't have to actually vote.

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Don’t be complacent, Nunavutians!

Liberal minority. Trudeau gone in 12 months.

R12 For the love of God, would someone please think of the animals!

So what's the latest numbers looking like for the liberals?

Pas bon, R14.

The Star poll of polls gives the Conservatives a minority today. I nearly fell off my chair.

I can't handle a Conservative government. I feel like one of those Americans who wanted to move to Canada after Trump was elected, only in reverse.

If any American DLers want to marry me, let me know!

I'm a 5'6 ginger with all my hair and teeth, not a fat whore and look years younger than my age. I have a couple of cats, a good job and and a healthy pension plan.

I'm bracing myself for a Conservative win. I think September is going to be a huge disaster in terms of COVID numbers and the numbers will likely be over 1000/day in places like Ontario and Quebec by the time election day comes about.

Candice Bergen as Deputy PM would be kind of funny though.

I thought things were supposed to turn around for the Liberals this week. WTF is going on?

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R17

[quote] I feel like one of those Americans who wanted to move to Canada after Trump was elected

And none of them did.

In all honesty the idea of Trump as President back in 2016 was utterly horrifying....the idea of O'Toole annoying and problematic but it lacks the same dread....and btw I'm voting Liberal...was going to vote NDP but will do my part to stop the Conservatives.

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You bitches had better be around on election night. I'm going to be a mess till the results are in.

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Correct me if I'm wrong but the polls still have the LIberals with a small lead in Ontario and a slightly bigger one in Quebec. NDP however have moved to first in BC.

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Trudeau is a schmuck who deserves to lose. I wish there were a decent alternative.

The first French TV debate will be on tonight (Thursday, Sept. 2), on channel TVA.

New Québec poll from Léger this morning shows the Liberals still ahead, but the Conservatives gaining ground:

[quote]This time they may not have a Trudeau to save the party from utter oblivion.

I think it may be Trudeau that is returning them to oblivion again. He's the risk of what happens when personality trumps party and platform. Not everybody votes for buns of steel.

The Liberals will never be in utter oblivion in Canada. They are, like it or not, the natural governing party - they have won ten of the last sixteen elections. They are where most people are. If the Conservatives can win, and I think twenty days is a looooooooooong time yet for them, they will get a minority.

They will have two choices - govern in a way the House can tolerate or govern as they like and, once the Liberals have a new leader, face a confidence vote.

If they govern in a way the House can't tolerate it will mean they have lied through the entire campaign - they are still Stephen Harper's Conservatives and there's a backlash. That's different than what Harper did because he governed as if he had a majority but he campaigned as what he was. If the Conservatives get elected and committed platform fraud and have a minority - they are pooched. Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces will prevent a majority.

And I still say Liberal minority, Trudeau gone with in twelve months.

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Your media conspiracy is bullshit. Liberals have won ten of the past sixteen elections. Did the media just take those off?

If Trudeau's got enough people unwilling to vote Liberal to an extent he can only deliver at best another minority, then, yes, it would seem a safe bet a new leader would make a meaningful difference, Rose.

I don't get it either, R36. He's a "meh" PM at worst, is weak on the environment and Indigenous issues, but he's not bringing down the country as some people suggest.

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The media is far less dangerous than Facebook. That's where the damage is done.

R38, I agree he's meh on performance, but on optics, he's a divisive personality. You either love him... or you don't, for the most part. I can't stand the guy. So much virtue signalling. My reaction is always stop talking down to everybody. To me, he doesn't seem substantive enough to have the job he has. He never did. It's all about the performance. So the reaction may be to an over calculation to ride on brand Trudeau, rather than the Liberal party. They aren't emphasizing the Liberal team, but Team Trudeau. I am sure the data made sense but they missed or got ambushed by the backlash to the call and O'Toole's utterly stunning ability to act like he's moderate and reasonable. I don't think anybody saw that coming.

On the math, which would you rather have: a 62% win rate or a 38%?

The Star still giving the Tories the most support but the Liberals the most seats... a minority tho.

Libs 131 to 161 seats, with a projection today of 152.

Cons with 111 to 142, with a projection today of 125.

Is anyone watching the TVA debate tonight?

Jagmeat is the face of Canada.

Only 15 minutes people!!

Justin looks calm, O'Toole looks nervous.

Trudeau and Blanchet are arguing about mandatory vaccines. They're both hot. I hope the have make-up sex later.

Ugh, now O'Toole and Trudeau are arguing. O'Toole's French doesn't sound all that great to me.

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The French debates are always better and TVA has a really good format and moderator.

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That moment when Trudeau threw his hand up in the air - he looked so French.

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Singh just did himself in in Quebec.

Justin is very scrappy tonight.

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Trudeau is much more natural when he speaks French...granted it's his first language so that's not surprising. The instant poll run by TVA suggests that Trudeau and Blanchet tied for winning the night while O'Toole and Singh were a distant third and fourth respectively.

R55 Let's be real, Singh did himself in dans Quebec just being a man in a turban.

Lmao

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R55 [quote] Singh just did himself in in Quebec.

What did Jaghmeet do?

The TVA political panel (particularly Mario Dumont) said that Trudeau won the debate.

New poll in the Globe this morning says 56% of respondents feel the election was unnecessary. The part that was interesting to me:

"Nik Nanos, the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said he was surprised to see so many Canadians saying the election is unnecessary this far into the campaign.

“Usually this is not something that lasts for a long period of time for a normal election,” he said.

Even if voters don’t like the idea of an election at the start, he said, they usually resign themselves to it after about a week. He added that he thinks the pandemic is making a difference this time around.

“Because of the pandemic, it’s created a certain level of resentment, at least among a significant proportion of the electorate,” he said."

I think O'Toole can be a great PM. Trudeau is a closet homo who is very incompetent and I really regretted I voted for him.

Conservatives still in the lead.

R63 This IS an unnecessary election there are no two ways about it. Parliament was functioning and we just had an election two years ago, plus there have been elections in several provinces. This was nothing more than a power play by Trudeau and it's blown up in his face. The truth is, covid is not over and we're likely heading for a very grim fall and winter. There is so much uncertainty in the air the last thing people want is to pay attention to an election. Parents are worried about if schools are going to stay open, workers are wary about going back to the office...we have no idea what things are going to look like three months from now, people aren't all that focus on post-covid life yet.

Honestly, if Trudeau had just held off until next year or just waited until the opposition voted the government down, he probably would have won much easier. People are pissed with him for calling this election, that's the only reason I can see for the conservative gains.

R64 is why we can't have nice things.

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That's a very persuasive argument, R64. One question: did you really vote for him? Your voice is muffled with your head so far up your ass.

R68... and that is why he doesn't deserve the job. He does not understand the job. He does not have a vision that is equal to the job. He is a dilettante who had six years of increasing awareness about that fact. And friend said today "this guy wouldn't have had six years if his last name wasn't Trudeau." I couldn't disagree and when I really thought about it I think it would be quite unlikely a guy that young, with those chops and that experience would have won the leadership.

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R71 I agree that Trudeau did well with covid and Trump BUT delivered most of his promises is totally untrue. In fact he has failed to deliver on all his major promises of the 2015 and 2019 elections: electoral reform, affordable daycare, pharmacare.....

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This is his second term. Memories are short. People often don't remember what you said or did but they tend to remember strongly how they felt about it and how they feel about you.

I agree he did well-ish on COVID. The vaccines saw some time wasted pursuing the Chinese, of all people, but overall, yes, decent job.

The problem is some of the things he didn't deliver on - like electoral reform - hurt his appeal to the young. (I couldn't care less, I like first past the post.) But worse than failing to deliver that one, he made it a major promise, raised so many expectations. And failed. What does that tell you about his judgement? You don't charge that hill unless you intend to die on it and everybody with any sense knew it was a hard sell.

So overall he's adequate but not the messiah, with an annoying, smug personality and some major ethics gaffes. I think the thuggery deployed against Wilson Raybold was telling and the capricious with which his dear friends the equally obnoxious and entitled Keilbergers were handed millions was also a major problem in substance and appearance. The Liberal party's Achilles heel is arrogance and he stepped right into it with those two, with both feet and considerable enthusiasm. And personally I still hold he wouldn't have got the job to begin with had he any other surname.

Yes, he's adequate, like most presidents and prime ministers and what have you, but he made some major mistakes that weakened him.

So I hope he had a good orgasm because he just fucked the country severely enough his legacy seems to be Conservative government. Maybe even a majority. Thanks, pal.

Is it excellent, R74? I assume you have the percentages for the other PMs he's outclassed or should we just take your word for it?

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What pisses me off is that he did not need to call the election. Earlier this summer it looked like he'd have a shot at a majority, but now even a minority seems less and less likely each day.

He put the $10 a day daycare and the vaccine mandates for federal workers/people on planes at risk all because he thought he'd have a calk-walk to a majority. I will vote Liberal, but only because I want vaccines mandated for federal workers. If he loses I will be extremely pissed off since we all know that Singh would have backed his government on that one. You guys have no idea how annoyed I am. I will blame him (partially) if I have to sit next to an anti-vaxxer at my workplace come October 31.

Polling and common fucking sense told him not to call an election, he knew there'd be a risk, but his arrogance got the best of him.

Not just him, the whole team. There comes a point when this fever sets in that they lose site of anything except the call, even when facts suggest don't do it.

If he was smart he'd have shown up for his press conference that day he made the call and said: I wanted an election because Canadians should have a say in how we go forward. I know that time is now not right. So I will work with Parliament to govern and come back to Canadians at another time, on another day, to ask them for their vote. For now, there is work to do, the pandemic to manage and a will in your Liberal government to make this Parliament work because of it. Also, I'm still fabulous, don't you think?

Or something like that.

[quote]Earlier this summer it looked like he'd have a shot at a majority, but now even a minority seems less and less likely each day.

Oddly, they tend to dither. You are right. They knew it then and held back. Same thing with the border. The Americans were ready to go in June and they dithered. Then they impulsively opened to Americans while they said keep out. It was just a cynical election related move and people could smell it. Again, I think so many things are indicative of how inept this government leadership and his team are at strategy and planning. Pretty words are lovely, but you have to be able to give a speech and govern. In over his head, pretty as it was (which in Canadian politics is a fairly low bar. No offense to Willie Amos' famous willy.)

Arrogance has long been the downfall of the Liberal party, R79. Trudeau has surrounded himself with a bunch of head-nodding individuals and none of them have the fucking guts to tell him "no." Imagine what P.E.T. would tell his son about this gong show?

No matter what happens, if the Liberals want a future in this country, the party needs to clean house. Trudeau needs to step down and go on his merry way - he'll be fine. Telford and others in the PMO need to go too. They are little more than yes men and have been the cause of much of Trudeau's problems. They're all weaklings - Chretien NEVER would have tolerated them, Trudeau Sr. wouldn't have either.

Freeland is not the answer to the Liberals needs either. She is not liked by many aside from some hard-core Liberal partisans. I no of no one who likes her one bit, and that includes Liberal voters. She is not presentable and no one likes how she speaks like a kindergarten teacher. She is smart as hell though and should remain as deputy PM or similar.

ugh - "I know of no one" - obviously. I was typing furiously when I posted.

Don't tease me with the reference to Chretien... perfect government, delightful Prime Minister and a happy, prosperous time for the country. Those were the days. I thought Chretien was a crude fool when he first won the job and I stood in awe and respect for him over time as he governed... and he was damned, common sense hilarious. He must roar with laughter when Just-eh does his slam poetry thing.

Well, R83, a proof is a proof.

You know he was in my way and I had to go... 1:46

That was great, R85.

Those protesters seem so normal compared to the ones hounding Trudeau recently.

Remember Chrétien and his golf balls? That was fucking hilarious.

^ I watched that too. Ooooooh, Ogilvy Renault... he was taking no prisoners. I've read the Queen particularly liked him. The end of this bit on Prince Philip's death is quite sweet, in how he refers to his wife's death in empathy with the Queen.

You beat me by one!

Oh, relly?

So basically if the Cons get less than 145 seats, Trudeau could still govern with NDP support.

and now back to our regular despairing...

A proof is a proof.

It cracks me up, but it's why we didn't go to war in Iraq.

Has anyone figured out why the reporter at the end of this clip brought up Jesuit school?

R90... yes. The sitting government has the first right to form a government in the event no party commands a majority. It would put the Liberals in a tight spot... the NDP might extract certain promises to guarantee that support (and logically, would.) It might even demand cabinet seats.

The Star's poll of polls gives the Liberals 129 seats and the Conservatives 147 (at present.)

The CBC's has the Liberals at 138 and the Conservatives at 132.

^ Sorry, R89.

Can Jean Chretien come out of retirement? If you think about it, he's not much older than Biden.

R91, has me howling.

It's great, R95.

I lose it when reporter asks him "did you go to Jesuit school?" WTF does that have to do with Chretien desire for proof?

Here's another great PM moment - Trudeau Sr.'s "just watch me."

Trudeau the elder was also very arrogant, but his arrogance was justified at least.

I have no idea what the Jesuit reference was to. I assumed a particular kind of Jesuit reasoning, but Google didn't help me out. Trudeau the elder was Jesuit educated but Google didn't help me find anything there, either. Chretien does not seem Jesuit educated.

Trudeau the Elder was keenly intelligent and deeply educated. He thought. His thinking included a system of beliefs and values. Trudeau... he modernized the country, sometimes against our will, but, yet, he was a rare figure able to bridge between us as a dominion and us as a country. But I think it was all based on his vision. His arrogance was, I think, more certainty and clarity, although I don't know how much he tolerated dissenting opinions and I can guess how much he tolerated fools. His son is perfect for the lightweight, superficial age in which we live. All emotion and outrage and demands for immediacy. Fridge magnet philosophy, Jan Moir called it, referencing those other two epic lightweights of the age. (It pains me to quote Jan Moir about anything, but even a broken clock....)

Yeah, R98, I wondered if the question was in relation to some sort of philosophy of Chretien's, but still, it was really random.

Now that we seem to agree that Trudeau will likely lose this election, who do you think will replace him as Liberal leader? Who would you like to see as next leader of the Grits?

I'm going to pick François-Philippe Champagne as my first choice. I know the party probably doesn't want another white guy, but I see as most capable at the moment. Some have suggested Marc Miller, but I don't see it. I don't think it'll be Carney, though the party would love to have him.

I favour Carney a little, in complete ignorance of what he stands for. I think the Liberals set quite a store by regularly pinging and ponging between a French and and an English, so it's rosbif's turn. I had thought well of Freeland but she's got a funny voice and she's kind of loony, running around so often looking like a slightly unmade bed and apparently owning only one dress in Liberal red, which doesn't matter except it contributes to the notion she's kind of loony. Plus she's ex-media and her reputation is poor with them, so a particularly rough ride is almost guaranteed. I think she may be one of those people who is so intelligent (or ambitious) that they don't even know how much they piss everybody off. But I don't write her off. Brian Gallant, former premier of New Brunswick might be somebody. I don't know. I think it needs a real contest with real ideas.

I believe this deeply: the pandemic showed us how vulnerable we are. I think we got complacent and lazy, enjoying being nice Canada until, when the world collapsed, we were shown to be completed on our own and sadly unprepared. The States fucked us over a couple times. Even Biden has done us no favours. And that's fine, but we have to let go of the fantasy we are neighbours or friends and that we can count on them, because they have shown, understandably, they will care for their own interests first. And that is where I think we have to go and decide: what is in our best interest? It is not the painfully, earnestly, CBC-riddled issues of Canadian navel gazing of who we are as a nation. We know that. We're alright. Pretty tolerate. Pretty open. Our instincts, in the majority, are at the centre, leaning left and toward fairness. It is what do we want to be as a nation? What is our long term economic policy and what is the strategy to realize it? What tools do we want to command the next time the world goes to hell? What relationships do we want to be strong and mutually respectful among the nations of the world? We may as well cut our losses with America because it's going to hell in a handbasket as it is. I believe the pandemic showed us we haven't thought about what this country is or should be in a long time and we suffered for it. We had to go begging the States for spare AstraZeneca. I can see how it happened, I would not, for my country, want it to happen again. So I think we need a long, hard look at what kind of middle power we want to be. Carney may be best poised to grasp an idea like that. We need another Trudeau. Funnily, charm free Harper was a strong character like that, just his ideas were all rooted in medieval times and I'm not sorry he's gone. I want a Liberal government to do this job.

Also I'm still not convinced it won't be a last minute squeaker in favour of the Liberals. But it will be the end of JT in politics. It's going to be close either way. He needs a strong and humble debate, no poetry reading shenanigans. Some humility. I still think, even if I think he's a pompous ass, a majority want to be on his side.

The other thing about Freeland is her defending her grandfather. If she were to become Liberal leader you'd better believe the media, the Conservatives, and even the NDP would be all over her. She is not responsible for his actions of course, but the way she's justified them is inexcusable. If the Liberals choose her, then they'd better be prepared for the fallout.

I had knew there was something dodgy about a grandfather, didn't know about that. I guess it boils down to when did she know what. I don't know if that's fatal or not. The article sure seems aimed at making her look as bad as possible. It's regrettable, no doubt about that.

That's part of the reason why I say "pass" on her, R105. The business with her grandfather is too messy. What he did is not her fault, but it's been proven, and evidence points to her having known for at least 20 years. I know this may sound unfair to Freeland, but does the country really want the granddaughter of a Nazi collaborative as PM? It's not fair to judge her by his actions, but still....especially since she's publicly praised him.

Besides, as smart as she is, she's not presentable for all the reasons R101 points out..

She'd have to recant and get a blessing from Jewish community leaders at the least. She should be laying that groundwork now. It's not great. The praise was lazy.

John Doyle, who is so bitchy he must be one of us, wrote this in the Globe about her:

The first most-irritating person to emerge from the government of Justin the Good, Freeland was irritating with her stunt of crashing a Toronto men's club where Conservative finance minister Joe Oliver was supposed to speak. The engagement had been cancelled, but Freeland crashed it anyway, harrumphing like nobody's business. Next, you could not miss her at the new government's swearing-in, with the red dress. Since then, it has been one red dress after another. Possibly it's the same one, which will need to be surgically removed. And her appearance on Real Time with Bill Maher was a dud, an exercise in more preening, again in a red dress. And no, that's not sexist. Freeland worked at the very top in media for years and I can assure you there are few people as lacking in the common touch as her. (And I'd know; full disclosure, she was Deputy Editor of the Globe and Mail at one point.)

Now that sounds a lot like two girls who couldn't get along, but you gotta figure there is a worthy amount of truth in a bold statement like: "Freeland worked at the very top in media for years and I can assure you there are few people as lacking in the common touch as her." And, personally, I've heard some stories that were told in a way to suggest a certain fierce grandeur, but that I know was two girls who couldn't get along. I also know in the pandemic she is well thought of for her work behind the scenes.

Still, if she lacks a common touch she might not be one to take good counsel about the Herr Grandpa problem, leading to that cloying tweet.

The polling averages seem to all be pointing towards a possible conservative majority.

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R101, I agree that Freeland may not be the best choice for the next leader. She does have a weird voice and the fact that she's only around 5 feet tall doesn't help her, either. There will be no shortage of men wanting to be the next leader, but the Liberals will be under pressure to have some strong women candidates because the party has never had a female leader before.

R102, Chantal Hébert wrote in her column yesterday that Justin Trudeau had a good debate this week but that he will need the next debates to go well for him, too. The question is, even if Trudeau continues to have good debate performances, is it enough to reverse the slide?

I think it is. Many people are finding the idea of a Conservative majority unnerving. No one really knows anything about O'Toole. The converging polls assume a Conservative red neck does erupt. Sixteen days is a long time.

R109 pollsters are notorious for using landlines to conduct polling. The only people with landlines are older people who usually skew conservative.

Pollsters have shifted to online as well. The landline argument is not what it was, except as a feel good.

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It's gonna be a squeaker no matter what, unless there's a huge gaffe from one of the three main players.

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What is it with Conservative men and their desire to beat up Trudeau? Like, do they want to fuck him and they just can't admit it or what?

From a Globe column: the wedges the Liberals will use to try to seize back the lead. I don't think at this point they can pull of a majority - the dye has set on JT in some respects - but I do think they can get to minority now based on distaste for a Conservative government:

"But the Conservatives are vulnerable on vaccines because Mr. O’Toole does not support mandatory vaccination for government workers and air and train travellers, a stance the Liberals are pushing. There is broad public support for restricting the activities of those who refuse to be vaccinated.

And now Mr. O’Toole has handed them a wedge issue on gun control.

The Conservatives have made impressive gains in this campaign, turning what appeared to be an election about whether Mr. Trudeau deserves a majority Liberal government into a genuine horse race. But the Grits were bound to counterattack, and the Tories have given them a splendid opportunity."

Radio-Canada says that journalists asked Erin O'Toole 10 times why he wants to overturn the Liberal ban on 1,500 military-type assault rifles. O'Toole gave vague answers.

The gun thing out to be enough to do it. Let's just hope Trudeau the Younger doesn't convince himself not to go for a walk in the snow.

^ By which I mean, assure the Liberal minority. I'm relieved but it's always amazing to me how people trip themselves up over stupid things. But thank God they do.

Any good news today?

O'Toole apparently has reversed himself on guns, claiming they will now keep the Liberal ban in place while undertaking the review.

Flip flopping is ok, until it isn't. At some point, someone can credibly wonder what people are supposed to believe from you.

Liberal minority, Trudeau gone in twelve months.

OMG....

Hold me, David.

The narrative today seems to be O'Toole's gun comments may have just cost him the election.

Probably did. Definitely should. Toronto doesn't go for guns and dopes.

Even though O'Toole quickly flip flopped on the guns issue, it will damage him in Ontario.

David Akin who is Global's chief political correspondent (and a big shill for the Cons) believes the Liberals will eke out a very tiny minority. He feel the Con vote in Ontario is too inefficient.

Oh no.

338 is the slowest loading website on earth.

2 other factors to consider:

1. How will the next 2 TV debates affect the race?

2. Will some NDP voters move to the Liberals to block a Conservative Government?

I can't wait to hear O'Toole's comments on Labour Day. The question is, will anyone buy them?

There's still no improvement in the polls.

Yeah basically it's a satsitical tie right now. The Conservatives (as they did in 2019) may win the popular vote, but the Liberals could still pick up the most seats. We'll see.

O'Toole has flip flopped AGAIN on the gun issues....saying he'd be willing to change gun laws if he wins!!!!!!! Praying this will likely cost him seats in Ontario!

Still.........

I don't think his flip-flopping is doing anything for the Liberals, R139. Maybe Canadians don't care too much about guns?

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Justin was hit with rocks.

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Here's a video.

CBC just showed a clip where you can clearly see he was hit in the back.

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Another pollster predicting a CPC win.

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Frank Graves of EKOS posted an update a few hours ago and said the polls are tightening and the Liberals are gaining ground:

[quote]Just looking at the newest roll up of last three days. Definite movement . The race has tightened. The LPC lead in Ontario continues and they have widened lead in Quebec. If this holds the would win . The PPC remain at a remarkable 8% .

[quote]The CPC path to victory suddenly looks much less clear. Lots of road ahead . Stay tuned

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Any positive news today?

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The problem with JWR is she was always a conservative. If the Libs had called her out and not confirmed her as a candidate she would have branded them racist. They couldn't win either way. Her only reason to run as a Liberal was to damage the party.

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This can't be right.

So O'Toole has a "right to work" section in his platform. Guess he's the same old union buster that Harper was.

NANOS poll:

Liberals back in the lead, Conservatives drop nearly 3%:

Liberals (34.1)

Conservatives (32.0)

NDP (20.9)

Trudeau also opens a 5.9% lead over O’Toole for preferred Prime Minister:

Trudeau (32.1)

O'Toole (26.2)

Singh (20.3)

Blanchet is one hot daddy.

Of all the leaders, Blanchet would be the best fuck. Followed by Singh and Trudeau.

Right now my hunch is that the Cons will win the popular vote but Liberals will win the most seats due do to their leads in Ontario and Quebec. Basically the outcome will be similar to 2019.

Are we watching the debate tonight? I'll need some moral support!

Are there two English debates or just one....I don't understand why there are two French debates?

Just over an hour from now!

This debate format sucks.

The other leaders won't let up on why he called the election.

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lol, R173.

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Anamaie Paul is doing well.

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Wow!! Justin was pissed!!

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Yup, R181.

Tonight's debate (in French) and tomorrow's (in English) were organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission. Last week's debate (in French) was organized by a private Quebec broadcaster (TVA), which didn't invite Annamie Paul. If a private English broadcaster had wanted to, they could have staged a second English debate and invited whichever leaders they wanted to participate.

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Trudeau did well tonight, especially in the first half and the closing minutes. Singh made a point of agreeing with Paul, no doubt hoping to grab some of the dwindling Green vote. I wish there were a break of a few days before the next debate: tomorrow is too soon for another go round...

No. O’Toole won the debate. The CPC will have 300 seats in the next parliament

Andrew Coyne:

Great moment for Trudeau there. God Blanchet is arrogant.

Charles Adler:

.@JustinTrudeau threw down with the leader of the Bloc Quebecois. Within seconds it was lights out. The others on stage got a front row seat to watch a political rock star, meeting the moment - owning his opponent.

English debate tonight. Justin had better bring it. He does so much better in French and O'Toole will do better in English. Fingers crossed.

I'm finding myself more and more annoyed with Singh lately than O'Toole. Even the sound of his voice is grating.

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R191 I think they are saving that for the English debates today (at least I hope). The Cons didn't have a prayer in Quebec so the Liberals target there was always going to be the Bloc. Fingers crossed Trudeau does well tonight.

Trudeau needs to call out O'Toole and Singh on both of their bullshit. Especially Singh, who's more of a liar than O'Toole! At least we all know O'Toole is a con, Singh spews shit and people believe him because they view the NDP as the good guys.

Uh oh.

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I'm getting nervous again. I'm back to thinking it'll be a Conservative minority.

Anyone tuning in?

Shachi Kurl? Seriously?

Trudeau is weak so far.

Trudeau getting hammered.

Wow. It's just a pile on.

Trudeau is bombing. Badly. Fuuuuck.

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Yup, it's bad, R203. He's fumbling, big time and the moderators are terrible.

R195, they may be insufferable, but they're usually hot.

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Trudeau had a really good night last night in the French debate, but not tonight, at least until near the end. Blanchet was immediately set off by the moderator's framing of her first question, and he just held a follow-up press conference accusing her of being racist and xenophobic. I thought the (key) Quebec vote would shift back to the Liberals from the Bloc, but with Legault's implicit support for a Conservative minority and Blanchet fired up after this debate, who knows?

Blanchet's hot.

The debate was a shit show...even political commentators are saying it's the worst they've ever seen. While Trudeau did not do well, I don't think the debate is actually going to shift the polls.

Yeah, Trudeau did not do as well in the English debate as in the 2 French debates. Chantal Hébert said that the consensus in the Québec media is that Trudeau did well in this week's French debate. O'Toole did better in the English debate. But because the English debate was such a mess, a lot of viewers may have tuned out.

R207, Chantal Hébert said that the Liberals might benefit in Québec if there is a split between the Bloc and the Conservatives. Other commentators are saying that the Bloc could gain some votes because of the way Schachi Kurl put down Blanchet.

[...]

[...]

So Singh expects older Canadians to pay capital gains taxes on the sale of their homes? Did I hear that right last night?

Oh God, Chrystia Freeland's on. Why do the Liberals always trot her out? She's very intelligent, but very off-putting and a terrible speaker.

[...]

Legault is PISSED. Wonder what's going to happen in Quebec now?

My husband and I voted today by mail. We sucked it up and voted Liberals.

I held my nose and voted Liberal today at the advance poll.

I voted NDP by mail

[...]

Why is the Green Party allowed at the debates? They no zero chance of winning.

[...]

I held my nose and voted for Justin's party.

The Globe and Mail has an excerpt from JWR's book. Does anyone still care about what she has to say?

^^^Yes!

Hmmmm......what does this mean?

R225 Basically what we already know, the election is too close to call.

[quote]Does anyone still care about what she has to say

If you're not partisan, very possibly. If there was anything to mitigate the behaviour of Trudeau and his team when this went down, it would have come out by now. They strong armed a strong willed Indigenous woman. Not a good look and that's just the way it is. The question is the degree to which people will be influenced by it. To his detriment, she's a strong willed Indigenous woman who won't back down (or shut up, depending on your POV.) In his favour, even though it's resurgent news, it is also old news.

I think the election is baked. It is a close race, barring a last minute fuck up (though with nine days to go it is a lot of last minutes.) It comes down to turn out.

Here's one of those fuck ups now, R227.

Hopefully the Liberals keep their noses clean between now and the 20th.

[...]

I don't think I'm giving her too much credit at all. I read about it and find it considerably less benign in form if not content. I find how they handled it entitled and objectionable, much like WE. However, I am not a partisan.

But thanks very much for telling me what you think and what I should think as well.

JWR has a very unattractive chip on her shoulder. She even initially refused to give up her office space-she was no longer entitled to a prime location as she was now an 'Independent'. And of course she played the race card, bringing in some 'elder' to do the whole sage brush smoke thing to make it look like something racist was going down. Yesterday news.

Yes, it's a shame she wasn't a good little Indian and had all those damn opinions and expectations after Justin's majority winning campaign. That's not needed in a Cabinet or a Minister or an MP.

Ah hell just scalp her :(

Polls seems to be swinging back to the Liberals.............

O'Toole fucked it up with the gun foolishness. Which is good for the outcome.

A Mainstreet Poll in the same time frame is nearly identical to Nanos so seems solid. It's an average and I see no indication of a poll of intended voters. A number of people I know can't be bothered. I am one. But the Liberals are safe in my riding so it doesn't matter.

The east - Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes are saving the Liberals ass. The Conservatives lead in the west and there the Liberals trail the NDP, which would be worrying.

[...]

The only people who I know who are bothering to vote besides myself are my parents. They’re both voting liberal. Nobody else I know is voting.

I think strategic voting will give the Libs another win.

Do you feel better for snarking, R237?

I am growing to hate Singh. The sound of his voice is grating. I hate O'Toole, and I'm now fan of Trudeau (though I did vote for the Liberal in my riding).

Anyway, once this thing is over they ALL need to go. Time for a fresh crop of leaders.

It's interesting watching the pollsters on Twitter. When the Cons led is just two or three polls taken within a day of each other, they were declaring that the Cons had taken the lead and could win. Now the a couple polls have put the Liberals back in the lead and they're all saying it's just a couple of polls, might be a fluke. Bryan Breguet a major pollster on Twitter all but admitted yesterday he is voting conservative....There is totally a bias amongst many polling firms.

Singh hints that he'd be willing to work with the Liberals to keep the Cons out of power even if Cons win more seats.

Today's Nanos and Mainstreet polls continue to show a [growing] Liberal lead. But as R242 points out, Pollsters still not willing to state Liberals are officially back in the lead.

Link, please. (Seriously.)

Just looked on CBC poll tracker... but Forum and EKOS have them essentially tied or a little bit down (Liberals down to Conservatives.) Do they ever poll just people who intend to vote?

Today's Mainstreet has Liberal 6 points ahead!

338 and Toss up now have Liberals likely winning the most seats. Tossup even suggesting Liberals are moving towards a majority due to their gains in Ontario and Quebec.

Am I missing something at R247, because I get four points between 29 and 33, not six.

Is this new math?

[...]

R250, as I recall their handling of the pandemic, they wasted valuable time. They had to be pushed for weeks to act on the borders and the airports, they messed around on failed vaccine efforts with China (whose vaccine it turns out nobody really wants), when that failed they managed to buy significant quantities from market but they won't disclose what they paid (they said they paid market, which in my experience with markets, means you paid a fucking boatload for a scarce resource). That makes them look shifty and arrogant, the Achilles' heel of the governing Liberals. Finally they dicked around on the border again. They dragged their feet in June when the Americans wanted to reopen, then, after things got bad again they reopened without the Americans, surrendering any negotiating power, and lo and behold called an election right after, eliminating a significant source of criticism. They did OK. C+, maybe B-, but New Zealand, not so much.

I don't call that the handiwork of the only governing party in the world that's done a respectable job with COVID, but, to quote our head of state, recollections may vary.

[...]

[...]

[...]

R254 (who is also the butt hurt R253 and R252 and a historic sniffer of Justin's farts) instead of multiple fangurl slurs without basis, why not try backing up your pathetic reflex responses? The pretty boy failed. In over his head. Here's some substance for you. Substance will be new to you... it means backing up your contentions with facts.

Canada’s first attempt to ensure domestic production was a deal with the Chinese manufacturer CanSino Biologics in May 2020. Had that deal gone ahead, it would have involved trials at the Canadian Centre for Vaccinology at Dalhousie University and, if successful, subsequent domestic manufacturing. But within days of the agreement being announced, there were already troubles as the Chinese delayed sending the seed material for the vaccine and, ultimately, it never arrived.

Efforts to secure a domestically made supply then turned to upgrading the National Research Council (NRC) facility in Montréal and subsequently building an entirely new plant at a total cost of $170 million. In doing so, the government bypassed providing PnuVax, a biopharmaceutical company also located in Montréal, with any of the $600 million from Industry Canada’s Strategic Innovation Fund earmarked for the research or development of COVID-19 vaccines and therapies.

The failure of the CanSino deal and the delay in building the new NRC facility left Canada reliant on foreign sources of vaccine. The contracts for the vaccine were negotiated based on advice provided by the 18 member COVID-19 Vaccine Task Force set up by the NRC in June 2020.

Both the co-chairs of the task force have conflicts of interest with companies producing the vaccines and the terms of the contracts are being kept secret. Among other things, we don’t know what price Canada is paying for each vaccine, what the timeline for delivery is, whether there are penalties for delays and how the contracts are being enforced, if at all.

Complicating things even further, the contracts focused on large-scale delivery starting in April 2021 because of uncertainty back in the summer about when vaccines would be available.

And this:

At first, Canada seemed to have vaccine-acquisition under control. The Chinese pharma company CanSino had developed what was then one of the world’s most promising vaccine candidates, and Ottawa struck a deal to have it undergo human trials in Canada, with Canadian laboratories free to reproduce and manufacture the shot.

But only days after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the arrangement, China shut off all shipments of the CanSino vaccine to Canada in what is believed to have been a spiteful retaliation for the continued imprisonment of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver. In hindsight, it may have been a bad idea to bet the country’s pandemic recovery on one of Canada’s top geopolitical enemies.

Right now, Canada is technically the world’s most prolific “hoarder” of COVID-19 vaccine doses. The federal government has signed massive pre-orders for at least six approved or pending COVID-19 vaccines, with the result that Ottawa has effectively signed up for nearly nine vaccine doses per Canadian. But with many of these contracts being inked after the collapse of the CanSino plan, Canada is lingering at the back of the line on these orders. It wasn’t until August 5 that Canada announced a plan to secure doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, and as of this week both companies have delivered a mere 1,157,940 vaccine doses to Canada, with further deliveries delayed.  In the U.K., by contrast, 10 million people have gotten their first vaccine dose as of Feb. 3, including 90 per cent of the over-75 population in England, which has significantly blunted the deadliness of the pandemic

And this:

On Aug. 5, Procurement Minister Anita Anand announced that the government had agreed to buy vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. Their shots have since been approved by Health Canada and are being distributed across Canada.

“Due to lengthy delays in the shipment of the vaccine doses to Canada, the fact that CanSino’s candidate had already entered advanced testing in other countries, and the new clinical-trial data that had emerged from other jurisdictions, it was decided in late August that the opportunity to conduct clinical trials in Canada for Ad5-nCoV had passed, and the government decided to focus on more promising candidates,” the NRC said.

The federal government and CanSino abandoned their partnership in late August.

And this from August 5th, 2020

The federal ministers responsible for the development and production of a vaccine against COVID-19 announced on Wednesday that the government has reached a deal with American pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and Moderna to manufacture millions of doses of their in-trial vaccines. Anand said the federal government is negotiating with “multiple” other potential vaccines developers, including companies in Canada and internationally, that could contribute to Canada’s supply.

and this:

Without much domestic manufacturing capacity to speak of, Canada had to sign advance-purchase deals with international vaccine companies. The country hedged its bet by mostly going with companies funded by Operation Warp Speed, and so far its strategy has been to overbuy doses in the hopes of securing enough to vaccinate all of its citizens. [bold]A mounting critique, however, is that perhaps Canada should have been more specific than “first quarter of 2021” in terms of arranging vaccine-delivery timing. Picard said that Canada, by not giving manufacturers a specific week, or even day, allowed them to push delivery until the outer limit of the quarter.[/bold]

So is that, R254, who is R253 and R252, is that, perhaps, satisfactory for you about where I got my information? From fucking everywhere, because I'm well and widely read, which you could be too, instead of humiliating yourself by ceasing to jerk off over Justin long enough to ask a question you didnt' already know the answer to. That's not Sir Walter Raleigh's cloak you're laying down, it a spunk soaked Kleenex, you pathetic bootlicker.

[...]

Keep wanking, loser.

And you can your fantasy can join you on the bench. In your dreams. Blocked.

[quote]The Trudeau government was one of the first countries in the world to sign an agreement with all major vaccine manufacturers, and it happened in parallel with whatever they were doing with the Chinese.

Prove it.

[...]

[...]

[...]

[...]

Vaccination rates don't correlate with when agreements were signed or what the terms of the deal were.

Failed deflection. You're so obvious, poor thing. But I'll be thinking of you on the 20th. Have a miserable time, loser. In every way.

[...]

LOL... OK, whatever you say.

[...]

[...]

So this is weird.....

[...]

Bet no one will call Singh out on it, R275.

[...]

Singh's getting more annoying each day.

Any updates on the polls?

CBC Poll Tracker shows essentially a tie. If their seat projection today is the outcome, the Liberals wind up with the same amount of seats as when they started.

Nobody gets rewarded for a waste of time.

From The Star: According to the latest numbers from The Signal, a statistical model that analyzes public polling data to forecast the election result, O’Toole’s Conservatives command 32.7 per cent of the national popular vote with one week left in the campaign.

But the Liberals are in a very close second with 30.7 per cent. The New Democrats are holding steady at 18.3 per cent, while the far-right People’s Party is at seven per cent and the Greens are at 3.3 per cent.

If an election were held today, the Signal projects no party would win the 170 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons. Instead, the Liberals would clinch 139 seats and the Conservatives would get 134. The NDP, meanwhile, would win in 36 ridings, while the Bloc Québécois would get 27 seats.

Who is this guy? Is he credible?

[...]

R281 Nick Kouvalis was Rob Ford's campaign manager and a campaign consultant for Doug Ford. He is a conservative shill 100%. That being Abacus Data did find in their voting intention poll that Conservatives are more motivated to vote than the Liberals, however the Mainstreet (and I think Nanos too) Found Liberal voting intention was higher.

Honestly I feel like election night is going to be a surprise. Either the Liberals are going to do much better than previously thought or the Conservatives are. I don't think it's going to as close as pollsters are projecting right now.

Thanks, R282, R283. He seems pretty confident the Conservatives are going to win. That worries me.

I wouldn't put much store in Nicky. He slums low.

Frank Graves posted this an hour ago. Yesterday there was a rumour going around the PPC support might be higher than anticipated which could cause a conservative vote split...we'll see.

That's a rather cryptic tweet.

Leger reporting a tie:

75% of Canadian decided voters say that the party they have chosen to vote for is their final choice. 14% are still likely to change their mind, and 11% don't know.

The proportion of Canadians who think the Liberal Party of Canada will form the next government is trending downward.

Bloc up slightly in Quebec.

It's down to strategic voting and get out the vote, barring a last minute fuck up by one of the parties.

This won't help his numbers. Conservative media working overtime to paint Trudeau as being in favour of the protesters in front of hospitals.

^ There is no way to interpret that as as being in favour of the protesters in front of hospitals.

Wow! David Akin who is a conservative shill (allegedly Harper once promised him a Senate seat if they had won the 2015 election), is saying his insiders in the Conservative campaign are expecting to be a stronger than anticipated Liberal Minority. They're internal polls are showing a stronger than anticipated show for PPC.

[...]

[quote]They're internal polls are showing a stronger than anticipated show for PPC.

All the Reform Party nutjobs joined the PPC because the CPC wasn't right wing enough.

Rosie sure is giving to Jagmeet tonight. lmao. It's laughable.

Attention Chretien fans.

Fuck, I love this old guy.

Oh shit.

This isn't good. At all.

r6 Good on him!

Why the fuck would Trudeau break Covid restrictions for a rally? He's been doing well and know he just gave the media, the Cons and the NDP something legitimate to go after him on? Why does he always do such stupid ass shit??

Who’s Rosie?

I obviously hate Brian Lilley, but already the conservative media is all over this.

This stupidity could cost him the election.

R299, Rosemary Barton.

[...]

R294, what is Rosie giving to Jagmeet?

R296, the tweet has been deleted. What did it say?

The capacity angle was barely reported by anybody except, presumably, The Sun. Nobody cares. I am a bit surprised given they'll go for anything but this doesn't seem to have turned into anything. So does that make the media conservative conspirators after all?

Hazel McCallion is funny in the Globe... she says she supports the Liberals and hopes for a majority for practical reasons but criticizes the election call at this time.

If she or Chretien get COVID there'll be hell to pay. Average onset for Delta is 3.8 days. It's Wednesday. The vote is Monday. Justin and timing... we watch with interest.

She was tough in the Face to Face interview last night, R304.

The CPC aren't happy Trudeau had a rally yet CPC candidates nand workers have knocked on my door three times and none were wearing masks. I answered the door in a mask and asked for them to wear one and they all refused. They said they were outdoors so didn't have to wear one. I pointed out there may be outdoors but they were on my property and they wear a mask or leave my property. They rattled off CPC talking points as they walked away. Fuck them and Erin O'Toole.

Right, R307, but Trudeau went on and on about the partially vaxxed CPC candidate campaigning in a nursing home and then goes and holds a large indoor rally. Stupid, stupid optics.

Someone should ask Kinsella about this.

Optics mean nothing to me R308. Hypocrisy does and the CPC has it in spades.

Well, there's a certain hypocrisy in that rally, too, R310, so I'm assuming you're more riled by selective hypocrisy?

Which in my books is one of the worst kinds. Principles matter or they don't. If they don't, you're just a partisan and that's worth only slightly more than a hypocrite.

From the Star: I’ve been a pollster in Canada for more than 35 years. I learned the trade at Gallup, in the 1980s and 1990s. I’ve worked for the Gallup poll, the Forum Poll, the Mainstreet Poll and the Campaign Research Poll, an operation I set up.

I’m no longer affiliated with any poll or media outlet. I’m retired now, so I have no skin in this game. I have no sh--s to give. I can call it like I see it.

Here are some things I have learned so far in this federal election (the tenth I’ve polled):

1. There is no longer a Conservative majority of seats in Canada. That dream died with the last Progressive Conservative.

2. The Conservatives no longer have a path to victory in this election.

3. The last pathway closed when Erin O’Toole refused to say he wouldn’t repeal the assault weapon ban.

4. Women hate assault weapons. They will always vote to protect their children.

5. A gender gap that previously didn’t exist suddenly yawned wide in the Conservative campaign.

6. The Conservative promise to repeal $10 a day daycare also contributed to this gender gap.

7. The truest path to a majority still lies through the Island of Montreal, Toronto and its inner suburbs, and half of Atlantic Canada.

8. When you add a solid base in Vancouver (as many as 12 to 14 seats), B.C. is no longer dessert at the end of election night, it’s a second course.

9. The People’s Party of Canada is not your grandparents’ Social Credit.

10. It’s not your parents’ Christian Heritage Party, either.

11. The PPC is Ford Nation writ large across Canada (the original Ford Nation, the coalition of disgruntled conservatives, NDP and ethnic interests and that came out for Rob Ford in 2010).

12. They are young, ambitious, wealthy and they cut across gender and regional lines.

13. The NDP had only one role in this election; to clear 25 per cent in the national popular vote, and escort in a Conservative majority.

14. Neither the party, nor Jagmeet Singh, could get it done.

15. The Green campaign was stillborn, conceived in strife.

16. The Green’s best day was the first day of the campaign.

17. The Conservatives thought this was a change election. Then it changed.

18. The change election changed into a wave election.

19. A Liberal majority is not only likely, but probable.

Ask me Friday. Things move fast in the last week before E-day. It might be a Liberal blowout.

I agree with him on the points about the Conservatives... I don't know whether it's wishful thinking or he's right, though. I don't want Trudeau as PM but I want the party in government and for it to move on to a leader who is up to the job. I was so glad to see Chretien last night.

I am really skeptical of the Liberal blow out or even majority idea. The polls just don't show anything that wide and don't seem to be trending. I definitely believe the air is out of the Conservatives' balloon and they can't regain the momentum. But with COVID, voter turn out etc. I think what looks credible on paper or in theory is completely up in the air.

[...]

R311 since the CPC is participating in outrage, I suppose you're riled with them? Your defense of them is the only answer that matters.

R311 has been all over this thread defending the CPC, promoting Erin O'Toole and trashing Trudeau. He's working hard to earn his pay.

Is this worrisome?

[quote]CPC back on top: Nanos Nightly Tracking CPC 31.2%, LPC 30.5%

If those numbers were reversed the headline would read CPC Gaining On Liberals!

That is partly true, R316, you paranoid loon. I have never defended O'Toole... at best I've been surprised he briefly did as well as he did, I said I don't trust them and I don't. If you're such a good detective at least be honest. I've made no secret of the fact I think Trudeau is in over his head. And he's never gonna fuck you, sad sack.

I speak English so I can't make sense of "since the CPC is participating in outrage, I suppose you're riled with them". Amuse me, great mystery, and explain what the hell you're talking about.

And again, I don't trust the Conservatives, I don't want them to form government, I think O'Toole completely fucked up with the gun position, which was so stupid and entirely unCanadian.

But you seem to be unable to cope with anyone who doesn't express complete obeisance to Justin. OK, that's your disorder. Nonetheless, I am intrigued by what "since the CPC is participating in outrage, I suppose you're riled with them" means in either of the country's two official languages. The workings of what passes for your mind fascinate me.

The problem with the rally held by Trudeau is that it's given fire to the Cons. Sure enough, O'Toole just opened his presser with it. My problem with JT is that he often gives the media and the Cons material to be used against him. I realize that all politicians do that to some degree, but to be in the final stages of a tight election and give the opposition material is just plain stupid.

The even could have been indoors with only a handful of supporters and high-profile people like Hazel and Jean. There was no need to have people packed in there the way they were. Yes, they were within capacity limits, but there was no physical distancing. Anyone who thinks that O'Toole wouldn't pick up on that is a fool. It was terrible optics and yes, hypocritical especially after JT rightfully hammered the Cons on their anti-vax members, unvaccinated MPs, and campaigning in a nursing home. Stupid. This will be used against JT and he did it to himself.

R321, you must be all over this thread supporting the Cons as well.

HOW DARE YOU?

R321, I just don't think people will care, because I don't think media cares enough to make it into anything. It was undeniably stupid... but I think O'Toole has made far bigger mistakes on guns and vaccinations and confirmed the doubts of anyone in the middle or unaffiliated with party. I have felt unable to trust the Conservatives fully since... probably since Kim Campbell... I can't even remember who was where before Darth Harper jammed them up.

No one with any common sense trusts the Cons, R323, but I just hate it when JT steps in his own shit. I've said a millioin times that half of Trudeau's problems are created by himself and his idiotic staff at the PMO. He needs a fucking hardnosed, no nonsense person in the PMO. Someone who would have had the guts to tell him "no way" to this election and "hell, no" to the rally last night.

[quote]My problem with JT is that he often gives the media and the Cons material to be used against him.

That's the arrogance. A month long campaign that appears to have come full circle to nothing and he still doesn't get that he's a big part of the problem. O'Toole isn't the only tool in this waste of time.

Nanos has Cons back ahead, R317 has posted it already. And as expected after just one poll showing a Conservative lead, the pollsters are all like "yup, Cons back in the lead" yet last week when multiple polls showed Liberals back in the lead, they all said "we have to wait a few days to see if there's a trend."

The Globe: The Liberals have a strong hold on the most seat-rich region of Canada, with a 20-point lead in the Greater Toronto Area, according to a new poll that also shows the Conservatives contending with their support splintering to the far-right People’s Party of Canada.

The five-day poll, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, provides a regional breakdown in support for each of the main parties and captures the mood of the electorate after the leaders’ debates. Released on Wednesday, it shows if an election were held today, the most likely outcome would be a Liberal minority government, said pollster Nik Nanos, the founder of Nanos Research. The second most likely outcome would be a Conservative minority, he said. --- In the GTA, the Liberals are at 47 per cent in the poll, compared with the Conservatives at 27 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent, the People’s Party at 6 per cent and the Greens at 2 per cent. The GTA includes Toronto and the regional municipalities of Durham, Halton, Peel and York.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 10 to 14 and had a sample size of 261 people. The land-line and cellphone survey was done using live agents and has a margin of error of 6.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In the rest of Ontario, the Liberal lead evaporates. The Liberals are at 33 per cent, the Conservatives at 32, the NDP at 22, the People’s Party at 8 and the Greens at 4. With a sample size of 327 respondents, the margin of error is 5.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

(it's almost neck and neck across the rest of the country, at least in the West. The Klan Party of Canada has drained CPC's hardest core freaks and after guns and vaccines, moderates are presumably leery.) The scare spot for Trousseau is despite everything: "The Liberals need to worry about the trend that shows Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole gaining in the preferred prime minister rankings, he said."

Yes, even the "National Post" and its columnists are now saying the Conservatives have no path to victory.

I am really starting to think the Conservative numbers have been inflated to try and make this race look closer than it is. That's not to say the Cons couldn't win, but I think whomever wins on Monday it will be a much clearer victory than what is being predicted.

By who, R329?

I laughed at this in the Globe: "Mr. O’Toole said that, since becoming party leader last year, he has worked to build a welcoming Conservative movement that is, among other qualities, inclusive, diverse, forward-looking and socially progressive. “We’re not your Dad’s Conservatives anymore,” he said.

They'd be better off perhaps if they were. It's Stephen Harper's Conservatives everybody's worried about.

LMAO, R331? He's trying to compare my new Buick SUV with my dad's old-school boat? Hilarious.

I'm worried about the so-called shy Conservatives, R329.

Even if the shy Conservative is a problem it will probably just reduce Liberal margins in seats they'd win. Personally, I just don't get a sense most people give a fuck about this election - it is not a change election, it's to be tolerated. It is a stupid election with an annoying man-child at the centre of it, but it feels to me like not a lot a change will come out of it. Toronto will deliver a bucket load of seats, so will Atlantic Canada. Where they might get into trouble is BC but that would seem more likely to go NDP. Women rightly did not like the gun nonsense. Arrogance is the Liberals Achilles' heel... trust is the Conservatives'. The reaction I hear is more expasperation and frustration than throw the bums out. It could go freaky on Monday but anecdotally as I hear people talk about it I don't get any sense of an openness to change. Minds are made up.

R319 is mentally ill with his hatred of Trudeau. That he claims not to be shilling for O'Toole is laughable.

Holy fuck R319 has posted 79 comments here. A quarter of the comments and not one positive comment in the bunch. Get a fucking life you loser!

Yah yah yah.... I like intelligent conversation, which everybody except you provides. This is interesting. Even you're interesting, in a basement dweller sort of way.

[quote]That he claims not to be shilling for O'Toole is laughable.

Prove it. You just make up lies and fantasies.

Cringe, as the kids these days say.

Why is he talking like a 14 year old?

I’m still Voting NDP but Jagmeets song is damn cringed. I feel a wave of second hand embarrassment.

If Singh can jump around like an idiot in a packed indoor environment, he had better not talk of the dangers of a 4th wave election again. Ever.

He's the most disappointing leader to me of them all. O'Toole's a Con so he is what he is, Trudeau lets his arrogance get the best of him, but Singh is a liar and is worse than O'Toole in some ways. If you watched his interview with Rosemary Barton, you'd see how full of shit he actually is. The problem is that a lot of his voters are very young , idealistic and naïve. I'd still vote for the NDP to block a Con if I had to though.

My hope is that both the NDP and the Liberals get new leaders in the months following this election. Don't give a shit about the Cons and I don't think they have anyone better than O'Toole.

From The Globe tonight: Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, facing turmoil in his caucus and a health care system on the verge of failing as COVID-19 spreads unchecked, introduced a vaccine passport system that will give businesses the choice between tough restrictions or demanding customers show proof of vaccination or a negative test.

Mr. Kenney declared a state of public-health emergency and said Alberta may run out of intensive-care beds and staff to care for ICU patients within 10 days. Alberta is also reintroducing physical distancing restrictions in public; banning indoor private social gatherings for people over 12 who are not vaccinated; limiting indoor gatherings for those who are vaccinated; requiring all staff, and students in Grade 4 to 12, to wear masks in school; ordering people to work from home; and other measures.

The Premier acknowledged he previously promised his government would not support a vaccine passport system but he said he was left with no choice.

He acknowledged the government made a mistake when it decided over the summer to treat COVID-19 as an “endemic” illness like the flu.

“It is now clear that we were wrong – and for that, I apologize,” he said.

--

Don't know if this is good news for Trudeau but it is bad news for O'Toole.

R344 Pollsters are already talking about a rise in PPC in Alberta.

Toronto Star is saying Liberals are 20 points ahead in the GTA. If this is true, Cons have no path to victory without taking seats in the GTA.

[...]

Ruh roh

[...]

Justin should get his hot little ass out to Edmonton ASAP.

[...]

[...]

O'Toole literally praised Kenney a week ago. There could be some revenge voting happening in Edmonton and some areas of Calgary.

That's good, R351. PPC may take away some Con votes and let the Libs come up the middle.

Bernier and his protest gangs need vaccines for both COVID and stupidity.

[...]

[quote]I like intelligent conversation

That's an odd statement, considering you haven't provided any R338.

R350 - I disagree. That would look too opportunistic. He treads a fine line turning this to advantage and appearing to capitalize on it. Kenney has done a marvellous - if deadly - job of fucking up. Being the beneficiary is a delicate thing, especially when you called the unnecessary election during the damned pandemic.

R352, Politico Canada talking heads suggested something similar - the Quebec electorate is famously volatile and easily offended. This is still getting play. They may throw a tanty and vote BQ out of spite, which could jeopardize Liberal seats.

Monday's going to be a nail biter but I still think Liberal minority.

Burn.

[...]

Kinsella is saying the same thing, R359.

Gerry Butts agrees with you, R357.

^ Not bad for The all over this thread defending the CPC troll

^^^The perpetual victim mentality of a Dipper.

I was reading about O'Toole in the NY Times this morning, with his somewhat left-leaning positions and I immediately wondered if he would turn out to be another Kristen Synema.

[...]

WTF Singh is blaming Trudeau about what's happening in Alberta........reallllly!

Singh is desperate, R366. And it's sad, his voters just eat whatever crap he's trying to sell. He's as bad as Trump and just as stupid too. I think he actually lies more than O'Toole does.

Is this the end of Singh's leadership? If there was ever a window to gain ground, this is it.

One hopes so, R368. He needs to go.

They all need to go, in fact. Trudeau too. I hope he wins and then leads for a year, then time for new leadership.

The Globe has a discouraging article about Election Day. Elections Canada already warning it is going to be a mess. Which means it is very very likely to be a mess. The mail ins unlikely to be counted before Tuesday. That could affect the final results in the event of close races. EC asked wunderkind for a long campaign to sort out the logistics. He chose the shortest. Wonder why?

Dumbest.election.call.ever.

MARY!!!!

^ He needs a shrink. It's not that bad.

He must be infuriated that his idol, Chretien, stumped for Justin, R372.

[...]

[...]

Lmfao.......

Here's Justin with François-Philippe Champagne. How tall do you think he is? 5'7?

He's one of my picks for next leader.

Oh, FFS..........

Not good.

He could sexually assaulted me 😋

[...]

What is it with all these candidates and their histories of sexual assault? Why is it so common?!

Obama endorses Trudeau:

More on the Obama endorsement of Trudeau:

Reporters asked O'Toole about his past praise of Jason Kenney's handling of COVID-19.

O'Toole dodged the questions and reporters had their mics cut:

Conservative media getting desperate now.

From Reuters: Nearly 5.8 million Canadians voted early this election, up 18.5% from the 2019 vote, preliminary data from Elections Canada shows. Separately, a record 1.2 million mail-in ballots have also been issued, though that is far fewer than the 2.3 million to 4.3 million range Elections Canada had predicted.

Advance polls ran the 10th to the 13th... so this week, when the polls were shifting to a Liberal lead again, so that turn out presumably reflects that mood. I don't know. I think it's a nailbiter still. A majority would be a stunner.

For the country, the good thing is Maxime Bernier has siphoned off the KKK vote from the Conservatives. And they made two major fuck ups: guns and pandemic. So the choice for the Conservatives is clear. They go forward moderated, which if somehow a Conservative government ever lands in Ottawa, what do you want - a more moderate Conservative government or this slop? Or it's true and they're stuck forever, spinning their immoderate wheels and that pollster quoted upthread was right... there is no longer a Conservative path to majority in Canada.

Although, if you combined Bernier's mouth breathers with the Conservatives today, you would have a figure in the lead: 37.4 to 31.2, which is good but not massive. Combine the Liberals and the NDP and you'd get a whopping 51.8%. I just don't think either party will agree to merge. It will fall to the Liberals to tack selectively left if they ever want a majority again - or to do a good enough job with their own platform to command support in the next go.

It does seem harder and harder for the Conservatives to continue in the dark path of BC's interior/Alberta/Darth Harper.

Isn't Darth Harper the best term? I wish someone would make a gif. I also like comparing him to Voldemort.

One other thing, Jason Kenny is ruined. If his career isn't over his path upward is so steep it's vertical. And the country is better off for that.

I just had a call from my aunt who lives in Winnipeg. She says that her riding MAY flip to the Liberals (it's the only Con riding in the city). Anyway, she also said that she wishes that Pallister hadn't stepped down as the person poised to replace him is a loon. Maybe Kenney could go there??

WTF is going on with Adler? He's anti-conservative now?

Two discouraging things, to me anyway, from the Globe this morning.

First: The Canadian government was surprised this week by the announcement of a new security pact between the United States, Britain and Australia, one that excluded Canada and is aimed at confronting China’s growing military and political influence in the Indo-Pacific region, according to senior government officials. Three officials, representing Canada’s foreign affairs, intelligence and defence departments, told The Globe and Mail that Ottawa was not consulted about the pact, and had no idea the trilateral security announcement was coming until it was made on Wednesday by U.S. President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

Second: “He was saying that, like his father had helped China to rejoin the United Nations, he would help China to occupy its rightful place on the international scene,” said a person who was in the room. The Globe and Mail is not identifying the person because they are not authorized to disclose what took place in the meeting.

The offer from Mr. Trudeau did not find a receptive audience. His comments were perceived as presumptuous, the person said, particularly by Mr. Xi, who has shown little evidence of seeking succour from countries perceived as smaller and weaker.

But Canada remains alone among the Five Eyes intelligence allies in issuing no decision to date on allowing installation of Huawei’s 5G technology, which some Canadian allies have banned for fear of China using it for spying purposes. And Mr. Trudeau and his cabinet refrained from joining a parliamentary vote declaring China’s actions in Xinjiang to be genocide.

Mr. Trudeau has resisted calls to boycott the Beijing Olympics. And he did not impose retaliatory trade measures after China blocked imports of some Canadian agricultural products.

Under his leadership, the Canadian government has been deferential to Beijing on certain issues – for example, Ottawa initially opposed the granting of an award to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen by the Halifax International Security Forum – while doing little of note to act on warnings from Canada’s intelligence community about Chinese influence in universities and intimidation of the Chinese community inside Canada.

^ This troubles me. While I have long held Justin is in over his head, and this seems to support that, I have seen nothing from any of the party leaders that suggests they have a view on us in the world. And that's bad for the country. We are a middle power at best but we do not seem to have a foreign policy or a view of our place in the world and means to achieve it. It's like the (in hindsight) idiotic allowance by successive governments of our pharmaceutical capacity to evaporate. China is wrongfully holding two of our citizens and has been for a year. And we can't seem to do anything about it and have no friends to do anything about it. Biden couldn't seem to care less about Canada. OK, so what do we do then? And I don't hear anybody talking about that. We have been coasting. We are complacent. It is not where a country should be. We are a middle power. We can't be better than we are without a lot of work and money but we could surely be the best of what we are and I don't see much evidence we are. There are grave threats coming. Fresh water, which we have in abundance, will become a precious commodity in future. Are we shored up to best manage that? It sounds crazy but I can hear American tanks rolling toward us now, if things get bad enough. Nobody is talking about it. We need a wider view and nobody really seems to have it.

OMG, what will Kinsella say now? He loves Hillary!

Is it a particularly good idea to get endorsements from foreign politicians? It's our election. I honestly think it seems a little desperate. Especially since the American who matters, Uncle Joe, has been indifferent at best to us (see the security story re. China and consider Justin opening the border in time for the election but the Americans doing as they pleased and not.)

I don't think it matters, R397 and I doubt that too many pay attention to it other than as an aside. I'd love it if Uncle Bernie endorsed Trudeau though. That'd take the wind right out of Singh's sails.

^ LOL! That it would!

I really agree r395. While I’m voting ndp because I like the candidate in my riding (Toronto Davenport) and think the Liberals need a shakeup in Toronto, I don’t have much faith in any party. There’s no real long term plan in Canada. Countries like China in particular have long term outlooks. They have plans. We flail around naively between elections with zero regard for the future and the best interest of the nation, and it’s really troubling to think about what that will result in ultimately.

I'm hoping for it, R399. Just imagine. It would be a bigger statement than anything Biden saying anything, (which he won't since he's the president). What would the Bernie/Jag bros have to say then. OMG, I so hope it happens.

Hahaha, this is good.

[...]

I agree that's a factor, R403. But I think they are scared the KKK pulled bigger percentages than they thought and now Alberta is full throttle crazy and looking for some place to vote like an Albertan and guns fucked them in the moderate parts of the country. I think they thought they had a shot at minority but knew it was razor's edge so it's all hands on deck. However, they are getting terrible advice. The Toole going silent on the Kenny question looks bad however you interpret it. Then again, let's be honest, Conservatives get the quality of advisor they deserve and, if they want Darth Harper style government, not something more moderate, they're going to get B team advisors like Nick whatever his name is.

Hillary Clinton just endorsed Trudeau....find this ironic as she she hates foreign interference in elections.

How is wishing someone luck interference, R405?

Dammit!!

I wonder who'll end up endorsing the Toole?

[...]

[...]

It's gonna backfire. Stay the fuck out of it. And if you're that nervous about your prospects, find some Canadians to back you. It's a Canadian election. I find the sucking up incredibly weak and offensive. How stupid do they think we are? The Liberals and the NDP would be the first to scream about Canadian content and the internet but they're running around trying to get American endorsements for their bid to run Canada. It is incredibly pathetic.

[quote]The all over this thread defending the CPC troll - posts in the 80s or 90s now!

Canada has a tremendous medical services system in place. Maybe you should think about using it? Ask the voices in your head and see what they think.

Whaddya know.

That’s because Trudeau wants to sell Canada to the highest international bidders r395 and that includes The Chinese rich.

I don't think he's that bright, R413.

I hate Max, but he's got the Toole nailed - and Sun columnists too.

[...]

that's not me. Block it to see.

Oh, it's the idiot accused me of being Rempel. Obviously getting to her, but her mental state speaks for itself.

[...]

Girls, girls, you're all beautiful. Now stop that fighting!

Okay, so are we going to place our final predictions here now? No changing them after today. Include seat count too. Winner gets a Trudeau/Blanchet/Singh sandwich - or your choice (and I'm assuming no one here will chose O'Toole or Paul.

Liberal minority. 5 seats either side of seats at dissolution, which I think was 155. Favour closer to 150. Trudeau steps down in twelve months.

Conservative minority....153 seats, propped up by the Bloc Quebecois

Larger Liberal minority. I'm gonna say...165 - 167 seats, just shy of a majority. Bloc up, NDP and Cons down. Greens nearly shut out.

Conservative minority

Thanks to Jason Kenney if this true.

[...]

[...]

^ What was that? Tweet deleted.

While I am sorry for Alberta I am glad this has (largely) ruined Jason Kenney's chances of leading that party and certainly feel confident he could not lead an elected government.

Link to Twitter feed for polling Canada... it's a tie, basically but the concerning thing is Liberals and Conservatives are either flat or down in every poll of the last three days - Cons worse off the Liberals, generally - but concerning for the Liberals: the NDP up in every poll, between 3 - 5 points. You don't want that in a horse race and this close to the finish line.

My choices are

Trudeau (even though I'm not a fan)

Blanchet - is there any possible way for him to become PM? There must be some odd combination of numbers that would allow for this. His accent is sexy so I wouldn't mind listening to him.

Paul - Greens are actually my favourite party most of the time.

NDP without Singh. He lies more than Trump and the sound of his voice grates. He should be off skateboarding and playing Animal Crossing somewhere.

No Cons ever.

[...]

Erin, you're in danger.

......................

Both Agnes and Abacas suggest Cons had the advantage in the advanced polls. If not enough people turn out to vote in person tomorrow, they could win.

Another Trudeau with blackface photo emerged tonight. I won't post it here, but it's all over Twitter. I don't think it'll influence this election though, unless the media picks up on it early tomorrow.

So now, Trudeau has to win tomorrow and then step down within a year. It's clear that his past will continue to catch up with him. I'm not a hater, not a fan either, but he's gotta go. He's a liability now.

The blackface things really pisses me off and I can’t understand why so many people don’t care. I’m the same age group as Trudeau and it’s not normal for people my age to have dressed up in blackface so many times they have forgotten how many. In my youth I had an understanding of minstrel shows and why that was not something you should do. I don’t believe he’s a racist I just think he’s an idiot and so self cantered that he doesn’t think outside himself but those aren’t qualities I want in a pm.

The blackface scandal didn't effect him in 2019 and it won't the night before the election. The real concern is not enough people turning up at the polls tomorrow.

Same thing, R437. I don't think he's racist, just a privileged idiot. I think he's done some good things, certainly he's done more than any other PM towards reconciliation, I also believe he and his party are more equipped to deal with that than the Cons. However, this shit will continue to haunt him. There's probably tons more photos out there that will be released at opportune times.

After this, he has to go. I will not cast a vote to for the Liberals again if he is still leader EVEN if it means we get a Conservative government. In fact, maybe, just maybe, that's what needs to happen to get rid of him (after this election).

If it weren't for Covid and Trudeau's mandating of the vaccines for federal workers, it really wouldn't make much of a difference to me who governs the country. I'm middle age, established, already own a home, paid off my student loans long ago, have a nice pension and so on. $10 a day childcare won't affect me (I support it), I care deeply about climate change and want good policies, but I don't know how much we can really do to stop it. In other words, it would suck for others, but not for me if the Cons should win in the future. So, if Trudeau isn't replaced, I will not vote to bail them out again.

[...]

I know that, R440, but it'll never stop. Surely the Liberals have someone without multiple blackface photos and you'd be surprised at just how many people do care. I don't think it'll hurt him this time, but c'mon, this is ridiculous.

FWIW I see nothing in the mainstream media about a new blackface photo. Is this for real? I can't imagine it. Another blow to the conservative media stacked against Trudeau theory because if it were so this would be the headline. I can't find anything.

R439, you and I see things pretty similarly. I prefer a Liberal government. Have always held pretty is in over his head and doesn't know how to set a proper agenda.

[...]

I haven't called him an airhead but I don't think there's much there in terms of vision. He overpromises and underdelivers. Electoral reform, first example. The dithering on the border and airports during the pandemic. The mad scramble to solve the vaccine inertia (solved and delivered, yes, but mysteriously and visibly resistant on the cost.)

He's had three kicks at the can and delivered a majority once and (if he's lucky) minority twice, once in a call roundly criticized as entirely unnecessary during a pandemic. Even the Toronto Star's endorsement was "for the aforementioned reasons, we believe — albeit very reluctantly — that the Liberals are the best alternative." There is no paper of record that hasn't cited the election as unnecessary and self-serving.

As to who will replace him, this is politics. There are twenty Liberals and most of cabinet thinks they could do a better job on his best day. The respected and novel Mark Carney is on the outside and already touted as an alternative. There's nothing Trudeau can do to get rid of him and who can agree he's rid the elected bench of anyone who could pose a threat and what kind of leadership of the country or party is that? And if you argue that's good politics you can't argue there's no one to challenge him because they're all as necessarily self serving and Machiavellian.

His popularity has sagged... he's barely first choice for PM in the recent polling. If you can't recognize damaged goods, that's on you. I don't disagree the timing is his, to a degree once the whispers become too loud to withstand and then it all starts collapsing (hello, Margaret Thatcher.) But if he delivers another or worse a reduced minority, he's at the end of his shelf life.

I think the Liberals have plenty of good candidates in the wings. Champagne, Anand, Carney, LeBlanc, Mendicino, Rodriguez, maybe even Brian Gallant. There's probably a few others that would be be contenders too. I've already stated why I don't think Freeland should get it, and I pray she doesn't try.

The Liberals have to be careful, it is the Liberal Party of Canada, not the Justin Trudeau party. If he doesn't step down on a high, then the party risks being decimated. Trudeau's brand is not popular, and the party has to make sure that Canadians know it extends beyond Trudeau and his somewhat cult of personality.

[...]

I've really unhinged you, haven't I? I except I haven't. You're the one embarrassing yourself.

Seriously, how can one person's ideas, that admittedly running counter to yours, be so unsettling you've got to play imposter and make such a fool of yourself? You're sad. You may need a little help. Your dream is apt to die tonight. If you can't handle debate, you're going to be a threat to yourself or others after that.

I find that a lot of today's Liberals are not actual Liberals, R448. They have no care or concern for the party and its policies, it's all Justin, Justin, Justin all the time. If JT was the leader of the NDP or any party, they'd still fap after him. To them, Trudeau IS the Liberal party. Same with some dippers and their cultish obsession of Jagmeet Singh, who is far more annoying and idiotic than Trudeau.

BTW, for anyone buying Singh's bs act about victims of sexual assault, ( earlier this week when he went after Trudeau and that candidate) did you know that as a lawyer, Singh defended rapists and stood by a wife beater NDP politician? Somehow, the dippers are blinded by him and his lies. He's another one that needs to step down.

R442, Daily Mail has a story about it.

Apparently there are long waits at polling stations today. That has me worried. The Cons had a lead in advanced polls (7 points according to Angus Reid and Abacus) the Liberals strongest support is with voters intending to vote today. If people get frustrated and walk away, it could be enough for a Conservative win.

Ekos seat projection gives Liberals a minority but with a three seat gain and a two seat loss for the Conservatives. NDP does really well with a seven seat gain.

R451 My sister texted me this morning (she's in Toronto) took her 40 minutes to vote.

I have such a high opinion of myself that I pontificate about politics on Datalounge and get pissy when everyone doesn't laud me for my brilliant ideas and opinions.

I'm changing my mind. Con minority. I think the NDP are surging and I don't think the idiot PPC fans will actually vote and some may swing back to the Conservatives.

Is there a results thread

No, R456. We need one though, this one is getting bogged down.

Here ya go

Trudeau's Liberals were leading or elected in 157 seats - exactly the same number they won in 2019, and 13 short of the 170 needed for a majority in the House of Commons.

The Conservatives were leading or elected in 121 seats, the same number they won in 2019.

The leftist New Democrats were leading or elected in 29, a gain of five seats, while the Quebec-based Bloc Québécois was down three at 28 and the Greens remained at two seats.

The opposition was relentless in accusing Trudeau of calling an unnecessary early vote - two years before the deadline - for his own personal ambition.

'Trudeau lost his gamble to get a majority so I would say this is a bittersweet victory for him,' said Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal.

'Basically we are back to square one, as the new minority parliament will look like the previous one.